Who actually, honestly believes this is an “extreme right wing government”??!
They’ll have a bit of a shock if we ever actually get some fascists in power (ins’allah)
I guess Fascism has a (probably undeserved) reputation for brutal efficiency, at least to start with, so these guys certainly aint close to that.
One entirely unshocking thing in the event of Strong Man X seizing the reins of power over the bloodied corpses of the woke would be you wanking yourself to death.
I note that the TwiX account you ardently follow is a militant Sinn Fein lesbian green Hamas-adjacent trans-rights activist
And you wonder why SNP style scotch nationalism is losing its purchase on the Scottish people
“scotch nationalism” - actually most Scottish people I know are quite open minded about whiskies from other parts of the world.
Who actually, honestly believes this is an “extreme right wing government”??!
They’ll have a bit of a shock if we ever actually get some fascists in power (ins’allah)
I guess Fascism has a (probably undeserved) reputation for brutal efficiency, at least to start with, so these guys certainly aint close to that.
One entirely unshocking thing in the event of Strong Man X seizing the reins of power over the bloodied corpses of the woke would be you wanking yourself to death.
The Fascist efficiency thing was largely from Hitler and Co. riding the exit from the depression in Germany on a tidal wave of borrowed/faked up money for rearmament. That, and the fact that the French Army had carefully learnt all the wrong lessons from WWI.
The current government doesn’t have fascist aspirations. Anymore than the SNP does in Scotland or Labour does in Wales.
Mussolini’s reputation for slapping Italy into shape is not entirely unmerited
Eg he’s virtually the only Italian leader since the 19th century to convincingly crush organised crime. He did it by jailing beating and killing quite a few people - but he did it
Then the Americans invaded Sicily and recruited the mafia to help them
The suppression of the Mafia was about as real as the railways running on time. More a case of Thieves By Statute.
Was it? I’ve read quite a lot of Italian - and mafia - history. I believe Il Duce really did stymie their operations. Which is why they were so keen to help the yanks
I agree the trains thing is largely myth
However he did drain a few swamps and eradicated malaria in a couple of places
He wasn’t a total imbecile. He was popular (at first) for a reason. If he hadn’t allied with Hitler he might be seen very differently by history (still an autocrat but not one of the worst)
Where I think that some of the US predictions fall down is believing in the fundamental decency of human nature. The SCOTUS judges will do the decent thing and stop Trump from running, and/or his voters will turn away from him in disgust.
I don't think that will happen. I think that Trump, as a candidate, will gain Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, which gives 264 seats in the Electoral College. Biden may just eke out a win, but he's just one mid-size State away from defeat.
The Trump phenomenon affirms this view. The Economist says 30% of Americans believe he is appointed by God, including vast numbers of self styled Evangelicals. I am not Evangelical but it makes be grateful for the UK sort - who run foodbanks and Christians Against Poverty etc, and mostly vote LD and think Jesus was basically a good chap.
There are true believers in Trump, and others who can rationalise their reasons for supporting him, but which basically come down to "he may be a son of a bitch, but at least he's our son of a bitch." Between them, these groups make up almost 50% of US voters.
The US is probably the most polarised of all Western countries, but the same effects are also being seen elsewhere. For tens of millions of Americans, the Dream isn’t working, and politicians saying they’ve never had it so good only makes things worse.
I’ll stand by my central prediction for 2024, that incumbency is going to be a massive disadvantage for all Western politicians, simply because most people think things are getting worse no matter what the official statistics tell them.
Is it perhaps particularly inflation that people don’t like? Whatever other official statistics say, inflation is the one you notice at the personal level?
Inflation is definitely a big part of it, but also that the official inflation rate doesn’t represent most people’s experience of inflation.
Big-ticket household spending items such as housing, utility bills, and food, have all been running way above the official inflation rate. Someone whose £250k mortgage just went from a £1,500 a month fix to £3,000 a month, is screwed no matter how much their pay went up.
That's the issue with "interest rates will come down" as a bit of Conservative Cope. For people who have fixed rate mortgages (what's the proportion?) being renewed this year, it's going to be less bad than it could have been, but not good.
As things stand, this year has the potential to be not so bad for the comfortable but blooming awful for the less well off. (Even the shift to lower tax rates on lower thresholds plays into this.)
Or real disposable incomes (after housing costs), which are particularly horrible for the current government:
Genuine question and not meant to defend the Government. That chart appears to show current household disposable income at close to the best it has been for almost the whole of the period covered. How is that 'particularly horrible'?
I would add the proviso that I don't actually think those figures are realistic. Most friends and family including myself are finding we have far less disposable income than at pretty much any time in the last decade so my experience, flawed as it may be, does not chime with those figrues at all.
Who actually, honestly believes this is an “extreme right wing government”??!
They’ll have a bit of a shock if we ever actually get some fascists in power (ins’allah)
I guess Fascism has a (probably undeserved) reputation for brutal efficiency, at least to start with, so these guys certainly aint close to that.
One entirely unshocking thing in the event of Strong Man X seizing the reins of power over the bloodied corpses of the woke would be you wanking yourself to death.
I note that the TwiX account you ardently follow is a militant Sinn Fein lesbian green Hamas-adjacent trans-rights activist
And you wonder why SNP style scotch nationalism is losing its purchase on the Scottish people
“scotch nationalism” - actually most Scottish people I know are quite open minded about whiskies from other parts of the world.
I tend to try to avoid predictions, but I will just observe that with FPTP, the prospect of tactical voting and a Reform spoiler (even if the latter will likely be significantly smaller than opinion polls say, in my opinion), the distribution of seats for the Tories will have a fatter tail downwards than we'll instinctively assume.
That's because FPTP is decidedly non-linear in its effects, especially as swings become larger, and we default to linear thinking (and status quo bias). So if our instincts point to c. 160-190 seats for the Tories with a mental margin of -15 or so below and +35 or so above (so we'll think the "extreme" results would still be in the range 145-225 seats), we'll actually be off-base on the downside plausible range (as well as, to a lesser extent, the upside plausible range).
Once you get into the twenties of percentage points, FPTP can be bloody brutal. Especially if voters are trying to work out whoever is best placed to beat you (tactical voting) and/or there are options on your side of the spectrum (Reform).
Labour would be largely best placed to benefit from this - IF it happens. LDs also (a bit like 1997, but could be even better - IF they're lucky and we do end up in that fat tail area). Reform will STILL be unlikely to pick up seats - maybe one if they're very lucky (even if they end up running the LDs close on vote share, because a diffuse vote share gets nothing under FPTP, while a smaller but very clumpy one can rake it in).
I think an existential disaster is still unlikely for the Tories. It's just that I think it's shifted along the scale from "practically impossible" past "implausible" and even "highly unlikely" to simply "unlikely."
I think Tory voters staying at home will be a significant factor.
I don't think so myself. They are the ones who always turn out. The DNV who turned out for the first time in 2019 for the Tories will quite likely revert to old habits.
But they didn't turn out in 1997 and I expect the same this year. Especially if it's an Autumn election because the local Tory former councillors won't be doing anything to get the vote out.
Which is why a May election would be the sane option for the Tories - I don't see any upside in waiting longer..
Two bits of upside.
It marginally increases the chance of winning (even if the peak of "expected seats won" is lower, the spread will be wider.) Basically, Something Might Turn Up.
It substantially increases "time until Rishi has to face the public". It's very human to think that a problem delayed is a problem solved.
(As for pay rises, it's worth remembering how tight the public sector budgets are and how many people are paid by the government, one way or another.)
Where I think that some of the US predictions fall down is believing in the fundamental decency of human nature. The SCOTUS judges will do the decent thing and stop Trump from running, and/or his voters will turn away from him in disgust.
I don't think that will happen. I think that Trump, as a candidate, will gain Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, which gives 264 seats in the Electoral College. Biden may just eke out a win, but he's just one mid-size State away from defeat.
The Trump phenomenon affirms this view. The Economist says 30% of Americans believe he is appointed by God, including vast numbers of self styled Evangelicals. I am not Evangelical but it makes be grateful for the UK sort - who run foodbanks and Christians Against Poverty etc, and mostly vote LD and think Jesus was basically a good chap.
There are true believers in Trump, and others who can rationalise their reasons for supporting him, but which basically come down to "he may be a son of a bitch, but at least he's our son of a bitch." Between them, these groups make up almost 50% of US voters.
The US is probably the most polarised of all Western countries, but the same effects are also being seen elsewhere. For tens of millions of Americans, the Dream isn’t working, and politicians saying they’ve never had it so good only makes things worse.
I’ll stand by my central prediction for 2024, that incumbency is going to be a massive disadvantage for all Western politicians, simply because most people think things are getting worse no matter what the official statistics tell them.
Is it perhaps particularly inflation that people don’t like? Whatever other official statistics say, inflation is the one you notice at the personal level?
Inflation is definitely a big part of it, but also that the official inflation rate doesn’t represent most people’s experience of inflation.
Big-ticket household spending items such as housing, utility bills, and food, have all been running way above the official inflation rate. Someone whose £250k mortgage just went from a £1,500 a month fix to £3,000 a month, is screwed no matter how much their pay went up.
That's the issue with "interest rates will come down" as a bit of Conservative Cope. For people who have fixed rate mortgages (what's the proportion?) being renewed this year, it's going to be less bad than it could have been, but not good.
As things stand, this year has the potential to be not so bad for the comfortable but blooming awful for the less well off. (Even the shift to lower tax rates on lower thresholds plays into this.)
Or real disposable incomes (after housing costs), which are particularly horrible for the current government:
Genuine question and not meant to defend the Government. That chart appears to show current household disposable income at close to the best it has been for almost the whole of the period covered. How is that 'particularly horrible'?
I would add the proviso that I don't actually think those figures are realistic. Most friends and family including myself are finding we have far less disposable income than at pretty much any time in the last decade so my experience, flawed as it may be, does not chime with those figrues at all.
It looks like the y-axis is absolute disposable income, so does not take inflation into consideration. Without taking lots of other hidden factors into consideration, this graph is pretty meaningless.
TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.
Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.
So.
Here are my predictions:
(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)
(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.
(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.
(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.
(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.
(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.
(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.
(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.
(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.
(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.
(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.
(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.
(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.
That would be a bumpy road but the world would survive. not a bad outcome.
TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.
Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.
So.
Here are my predictions:
(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)
(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.
(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.
(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.
(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.
(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.
(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.
(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.
(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.
(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.
(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.
(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.
(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.
Looking at your point 10, does that suggest a rerun of January 6, 2021? Or will Trump accept the verdict this time?
I’m sure there would be a march. But the president wouldn’t stand down the defences.
Where I think that some of the US predictions fall down is believing in the fundamental decency of human nature. The SCOTUS judges will do the decent thing and stop Trump from running, and/or his voters will turn away from him in disgust.
I don't think that will happen. I think that Trump, as a candidate, will gain Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, which gives 264 seats in the Electoral College. Biden may just eke out a win, but he's just one mid-size State away from defeat.
The Trump phenomenon affirms this view. The Economist says 30% of Americans believe he is appointed by God, including vast numbers of self styled Evangelicals. I am not Evangelical but it makes be grateful for the UK sort - who run foodbanks and Christians Against Poverty etc, and mostly vote LD and think Jesus was basically a good chap.
There are true believers in Trump, and others who can rationalise their reasons for supporting him, but which basically come down to "he may be a son of a bitch, but at least he's our son of a bitch." Between them, these groups make up almost 50% of US voters.
The US is probably the most polarised of all Western countries, but the same effects are also being seen elsewhere. For tens of millions of Americans, the Dream isn’t working, and politicians saying they’ve never had it so good only makes things worse.
I’ll stand by my central prediction for 2024, that incumbency is going to be a massive disadvantage for all Western politicians, simply because most people think things are getting worse no matter what the official statistics tell them.
Is it perhaps particularly inflation that people don’t like? Whatever other official statistics say, inflation is the one you notice at the personal level?
Inflation is definitely a big part of it, but also that the official inflation rate doesn’t represent most people’s experience of inflation.
Big-ticket household spending items such as housing, utility bills, and food, have all been running way above the official inflation rate. Someone whose £250k mortgage just went from a £1,500 a month fix to £3,000 a month, is screwed no matter how much their pay went up.
That's the issue with "interest rates will come down" as a bit of Conservative Cope. For people who have fixed rate mortgages (what's the proportion?) being renewed this year, it's going to be less bad than it could have been, but not good.
As things stand, this year has the potential to be not so bad for the comfortable but blooming awful for the less well off. (Even the shift to lower tax rates on lower thresholds plays into this.)
Is this going to become the main story this week once Fleet Street gets back to work? Or are the D Notices already flowing?
Robert Peston @Peston After the former most powerful government official has asserted that the UK’s nuclear weapons and defence capability is dangerously fragile, the government will surely have to make a statement to parliament. See attached from @Dominic2306
Why on earth would he make that statement publicly?
You arrive in their current-model BMW 7 series, which picked you up from anywhere in the UAE, go into one of 25 totally private suites, order food from a menu prepared by a Michelin-starred chef, and drink the Krug while you’re waiting for it.
At some point, your passport control officer will come and say hi, take your passports for stamping and bring them back to you.
Once you’ve decided whether you want to be first or last to board the plane, you wait to be called to walk through your private security gate and out airside to another 7-series, which takes you straight to the plane.
I'm going to be quite contrarian on Trump. He will NOT be the Republican candidate in 2024.
This month is going to be personally traumatic for him. He is facing two judgments where he has already lost and the issue is damages to be awarded against him. The New York case has already found his businesses guilty of systemic fraud. The issue is the award to the state. This will be not less than $500m IMHO - and might easily be closer to a billion. Much as Trump will rail it is "the system out to get him", the message will start to sink in, the glitter rub off - he is a conman whose claims to be some great commercial mind will start to fall apart. This fall from grace argument is one the media loves to run with.(And there could still be more criminal charges in the fallout of this judgment.)
Trump will not be free to do business in New York. The judgment will be excoriating on his lack of credibility in his testimony and the sheer nastiness of the way he conducted himself. Trump will not remotely have the money to meet the judgment (and potential mega-donors will back off bankrolling him because the narrative against him has turned so negative). He will lodge appeals, but they will swiftly come to nothing. The fire sale of his assets will then start. We will see whether Mar-a-Lago is really worth the billion or billion and half Trump claims.
As well as his business court case, he is also going to see what the defamation judgment is going to cost him against E. Jean Carroll. It won't be the $148m Rudi Giuliani was hit with, but it will likely be tens of millions at the time the New York case has taken funds away. It will also remind the voters what a shit he is. Especially women voters.
Whilst some voters will stick with him, and despite these being civil cases and not a criminal, it will cause a material - 5%+ of his support - to back away and not return.
There are two ways Trump could react. He could rant and scream and in the process, look really quite deranged. Or he could be uncharacteristically silent.
However, these are just the personal life problems impinging on his persona projected to the voters. His bigger issues will be his political ones - staying on the ballot and maintaining his claim to absolute Presidential immunity for his actions relating to overthrow the 2000 election result.
So what happens if he doesn’t pay NY?
They start seizing assets and he plays it as an establishment attack on the people’s saviour?
Are these the figures the government was trying to hide?
Not price-inflation corrected, mind. Even ignoring covid, the peers spent very nearly 70K on shampoo in 2019. BoE converts that to £85,482. So that's a much smaller discrepancy, and then you'd need to check on precise comparisons. Such as the inflation in peers - all those Tory ex-PMs with their little lists.
But HMG can't complain - they are always doing the same thing to make themselves look better, e.g. when spending money intended for the north of England on what might charitably be described as not quite southernmost Devon etc.
Here goes my predictions, which are pretty off the cuff rather than the product of deep thought.
1) Whether technical recession or not, economic performance will flat line at the beginning of the year, but pick up a little second half. Inflation will drop to 2% by the summer, and interest rates will come down a little. 3.5% by year end.
2) The UK General Election will be late November/early December. This is the reverse of my betting position, which is for a May Election. If polls start improving then Sunak will hold out for further movement. If they are static or declining further he won't go early, though won't stifle Election talk.
3) The SNP will do badly with 15-25 seats, Lib Dems will be 25-35 seats. Greens will gain vote share but lose their seat, Reform will get no seats and fail to keep their deposit in more than a handful. The Tories will be 175 +/- 50 seats. This puts Lab on 400 +/- 50 seats. I have done these as ranges, but if forced to be more specific would go for the midpoint of each.
4) Putin will win the election in Russia, Modi in India both consolidating their autocracies, Biden-Trump could go either way, but I think Biden will edge it.
5) The Ukraine war will continue as stalemate, with the Ukranians holding on in defence and making it costly for Russia. Ukranian begging will become more desperate for weapons, but financial support will be forthcoming from Europe. Gaza will be a running sore for Israel, and the war likely to expand into West Bank and Southern Lebanon. China will become more bellicose towards Taiwan, but won't invade.
6) Man City will win the League and Leicester will be promoted with a record points total from the Championship. The summer Olympics will be fun, and good public relations for Macron but no obvious successor.
For those of the "glass half empty" persuasion, the nightmare after Christmas!
Trump gets the nom and the EC. Retribution for 2020 is swift, vengeful and violent. The US becomes an autocracy.
China subsumes Taiwan on February 1st 2025.
The Conservatives (not necessarily led by Sunak) sneak a 20 seat green shoots win on a low vote share with 50 plus seats with majorities of less than a thousand in an ultra low turnout New Year 2025 election. After a successful pre-election Christmas Eve 100 seat flight to Rwanda the policy is quietly shelved. The boats keep coming, but a crackdown on legal migration means net migration figures reduce to less than 100,000. Staff shortages mean the NHS backlog is struggling to improve. Enough are dying whilst on the list to allow the figures to appear to be better than they otherwise might look. The NHS is sold to Cedars Sinai Healthcare for a nominal £10. Several Cabinet Ministers' wives are made Executive Directors. Richard Burgon becomes LOTO and as a result the Conservative poll lead extends to plus 20. Reform beat Labour into fourth place in the 2025 locals.
Ukraine grinds on until Trump throws them to the dogs on January 21st 2025. The USA leaves NATO.
Palestinians are cleared from the river to the sea. Netanyahu remains PM. Lebanon becomes the new Gaza. The world looks on and does nothing. Jared Kushner is appointed Secretary of State.
The election is absolutely going to be in October or November. All of this talk of May is nonsense. The government will want whatever tax cuts they are pushing through in March to land in people's pay for a significant amount of time, for interest rates to be falling with inflation to be at or below 2% and for petrol prices to have stabilised at 125p - 130p. All of those will happen after the summer, not before. In addition waiting until October or November will mean people will have had a year's worth of real terms pay rises, they will feel much better off in November than they will in May, especially with mortgage rates dropping below 4% already.
I think you'll probably be right (November or December) unless the budget falls. The way they're trailing the budget already with hints at big tax cuts could lead to a VoNC if done wrong
STimes says Sunak's chief strategist has circled November in his diary.
Going up against a Trump campaign in the US would be brave. Every time he says something weird or offensive the Tories will be asked whether they agree or condemn him.
Taking the view Trump won't be a thing by then...
I think Trump will be blocked from enough state ballots to fail to be GOP nominee, the SC leaving the states to decide, while remaining on enough state ballots to run as a third party candidate which he will.
We then head for a near re rerun of the 1912 presidential election when Democrat Wilson won with less than 45% of the vote, close to Biden's current approval rating, as the conservative vote was split between Republican nominee President Taft and former Republican President Theodore Roosevelt running as a third party candidate. Much as Trump would take votes from the official Republican nominee to re elect Biden by default
Possible, I suppose. However, I think it would require significantly more States to remove him and these need to be 1. Large enough to have enough electoral votes to make a difference 2. Winnable by the Republicans - e.g. if California removed Trump it would likely make no difference
Then bear in mind that if say Texas removed Trump and it was won by Haley (or a Trump stooge, Cruz?), but the result had Trump close to Biden in electoral votes with Haley/Cruz a distant third, those Texas electors could just cast their votes for Trump. They aren't bound to the winner of their State, they can do whatever they want with their electoral vote.
If California removed Trump it would make a big difference in the GOP primaries, in the general if Trump is competing with a GOP nominee not him that then makes it far harder for him to win
Where I think that some of the US predictions fall down is believing in the fundamental decency of human nature. The SCOTUS judges will do the decent thing and stop Trump from running, and/or his voters will turn away from him in disgust.
I don't think that will happen. I think that Trump, as a candidate, will gain Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, which gives 264 seats in the Electoral College. Biden may just eke out a win, but he's just one mid-size State away from defeat.
The Trump phenomenon affirms this view. The Economist says 30% of Americans believe he is appointed by God, including vast numbers of self styled Evangelicals. I am not Evangelical but it makes be grateful for the UK sort - who run foodbanks and Christians Against Poverty etc, and mostly vote LD and think Jesus was basically a good chap.
There are true believers in Trump, and others who can rationalise their reasons for supporting him, but which basically come down to "he may be a son of a bitch, but at least he's our son of a bitch." Between them, these groups make up almost 50% of US voters.
The US is probably the most polarised of all Western countries, but the same effects are also being seen elsewhere. For tens of millions of Americans, the Dream isn’t working, and politicians saying they’ve never had it so good only makes things worse.
I’ll stand by my central prediction for 2024, that incumbency is going to be a massive disadvantage for all Western politicians, simply because most people think things are getting worse no matter what the official statistics tell them.
Is it perhaps particularly inflation that people don’t like? Whatever other official statistics say, inflation is the one you notice at the personal level?
Inflation is definitely a big part of it, but also that the official inflation rate doesn’t represent most people’s experience of inflation.
Big-ticket household spending items such as housing, utility bills, and food, have all been running way above the official inflation rate. Someone whose £250k mortgage just went from a £1,500 a month fix to £3,000 a month, is screwed no matter how much their pay went up.
That's the issue with "interest rates will come down" as a bit of Conservative Cope. For people who have fixed rate mortgages (what's the proportion?) being renewed this year, it's going to be less bad than it could have been, but not good.
As things stand, this year has the potential to be not so bad for the comfortable but blooming awful for the less well off. (Even the shift to lower tax rates on lower thresholds plays into this.)
Or real disposable incomes (after housing costs), which are particularly horrible for the current government:
Genuine question and not meant to defend the Government. That chart appears to show current household disposable income at close to the best it has been for almost the whole of the period covered. How is that 'particularly horrible'?
I would add the proviso that I don't actually think those figures are realistic. Most friends and family including myself are finding we have far less disposable income than at pretty much any time in the last decade so my experience, flawed as it may be, does not chime with those figrues at all.
Horrible because it's one lost decade leading into another with no prospect of it being turned around soon.
It could be averages are hiding that some people are doing just fine while others not so fine. I suspect the haves own their houses outright or took out mortgages years ago, while the-nots pay rent or have early stage mortgages.
I'm going to be quite contrarian on Trump. He will NOT be the Republican candidate in 2024.
This month is going to be personally traumatic for him. He is facing two judgments where he has already lost and the issue is damages to be awarded against him. The New York case has already found his businesses guilty of systemic fraud. The issue is the award to the state. This will be not less than $500m IMHO - and might easily be closer to a billion. Much as Trump will rail it is "the system out to get him", the message will start to sink in, the glitter rub off - he is a conman whose claims to be some great commercial mind will start to fall apart. This fall from grace argument is one the media loves to run with.(And there could still be more criminal charges in the fallout of this judgment.)
Trump will not be free to do business in New York. The judgment will be excoriating on his lack of credibility in his testimony and the sheer nastiness of the way he conducted himself. Trump will not remotely have the money to meet the judgment (and potential mega-donors will back off bankrolling him because the narrative against him has turned so negative). He will lodge appeals, but they will swiftly come to nothing. The fire sale of his assets will then start. We will see whether Mar-a-Lago is really worth the billion or billion and half Trump claims.
As well as his business court case, he is also going to see what the defamation judgment is going to cost him against E. Jean Carroll. It won't be the $148m Rudi Giuliani was hit with, but it will likely be tens of millions at the time the New York case has taken funds away. It will also remind the voters what a shit he is. Especially women voters.
Whilst some voters will stick with him, and despite these being civil cases and not a criminal, it will cause a material - 5%+ of his support - to back away and not return.
There are two ways Trump could react. He could rant and scream and in the process, look really quite deranged. Or he could be uncharacteristically silent.
However, these are just the personal life problems impinging on his persona projected to the voters. His bigger issues will be his political ones - staying on the ballot and maintaining his claim to absolute Presidential immunity for his actions relating to overthrow the 2000 election result.
So what happens if he doesn’t pay NY?
They start seizing assets and he plays it as an establishment attack on the people’s saviour?
Some will take his victim status as a sign the state is after him.
Others will accept that if you cheat and swindle and play the little people as saps, then that is justice.
Can Haley win the Iowa primary, or get within 5% of doing so?
It will require an epic collapse - last polls had Trump some 30+ points ahead of both de Santis and Haley. And de Santis has an 8% lead over Haley as second choice.
That said, the de Santis campaign seems to be running on fumes.
“He started the primary on third base and stole second,” said David Jolly, who served with DeSantis as a fellow Republican member of Congress from Florida. “We’ve now witnessed one of the most expensive and embarrassing collapses in Republican history.”
Fair play to @TimS . Predicting a major natural disaster is bold.
How did he know about Japan in advance… I think we should be told.
(Too dark?)
I’m not that clairvoyant, fortunately.
My prediction of a natural disaster is simply on the basis of probability. In most decades a few things dominate the news for weeks or months:
- domestic and Anglosphere political crises and elections, every 2-3 years. - Economic crises (usually one big one per decade, and a couple of smaller / false alarm ones). Last one was of course the cozzy livs crisis. - Natural disasters including pandemics, floods, quakes and tsunamis, hurricanes. Loads every year but usually two or three big ones per decade that demand global or regional attention - big sporting stories like the olympics or World Cup. Dropping in significance in recent years. - wars and coups. They come and go and we’re in a bit of a rich vein currently, but still the big ones are more like once a decade
The last major natural disaster of global significance was Covid. Before that the Ebola outbreak in Guinea and West Africa, before that the Japanese tsunami and Thai floods, which disrupted global supply chains, before that the series of droughts in food producing regions that led to the Arab spring, before that Hurricane Katrina and a year earlier the Indian Ocean tsunami. And before that the apocalyptic Central European floods of 1997. We are due another this year or next. But notably it’s years since a huge volcanic eruption and decades since a major crop blight.
Domestic natural disasters have been thin on the ground too. It’s a long time since the 2013 floods that got Cameron in trouble, the foot and mouth epidemic that trashed UK farming, the catastrophic flooding of Boscastle, the 2007 summer floods.
So if a major natural disaster doesn’t dominate and derail the news agenda this year at some point we’ll be lucky.
I remember the BA lounge at Islamabad. We would just lift our legs to ensure a large rat had an uninterrupted trundle from one side to the other.
Then they would fail to call the people in the lounge, who then watched their flight take off.
Happy days of international travel....
The TAM lounge in São Paulo. I’ve been at bus stations in developing countries with more seating room and less stressed travellers.
Only time I’ve been in an airport “premium” lounge with most people - literally most people - sitting or lying on the floor, and no alcoholic drinks because they’d run out.
Who actually, honestly believes this is an “extreme right wing government”??!
They’ll have a bit of a shock if we ever actually get some fascists in power (ins’allah)
I guess Fascism has a (probably undeserved) reputation for brutal efficiency, at least to start with, so these guys certainly aint close to that.
One entirely unshocking thing in the event of Strong Man X seizing the reins of power over the bloodied corpses of the woke would be you wanking yourself to death.
The Fascist efficiency thing was largely from Hitler and Co. riding the exit from the depression in Germany on a tidal wave of borrowed/faked up money for rearmament. That, and the fact that the French Army had carefully learnt all the wrong lessons from WWI.
The current government doesn’t have fascist aspirations. Anymore than the SNP does in Scotland or Labour does in Wales.
I read somewhere that Mussolini didn’t even make the trains run on time.
I thought guy t he did, but only by halving the number of something to make it easy.
p.s. I never really understood why flask-filling and other alternative lifestyle choices would be dissed until a psychotherapist friend reminded me that people feel threatened by difference.
I suggest we all need to make radical choices, from micro (eg energy saving) to macro if we care for the Mother Earth which we are currently raping.
If I’m too left-field and feminine for peeps on here I shall stay away but I nevertheless wish you all as Happy a New Year as possible. I was concerned about the health of a few regulars on here when I last posted 2 months ago. I hope they are okay? xx
Part 2: I expect Colorado and Maine to be joined this month by other states moving to exclude him from the ballot. These will create a need for the issue to be urgently reviewed by the Supreme Court. Controversially perhaps, I do not expect Trump to win on this issue. Two of the right-wing Supreme Court justices have already given judgments in their prior careers that have supported the rights of the individual states to decide how to best protect their ballots. I suspect they will go along with the similar notion - which will mean they will not interfere to put Trump back on the ballot. To do otherwise is going to require some considerable and obvious contortions.
I also expect Trump to fail in a case appealing the outcome in the senior court in Washington DC finding that Trump has no absolute Presidential immunity. Anything else would leave the US Constitution open to utter abuse by a future President, be that Trump or A N Other. Indeed, in the most extreme outcome, Biden could take Trump out and shoot him - and then claim that same immunity. Once Trump has no immunity, his actions on and in the run up to January 6th and the storming of Congress to prevent the certification of the 2000 election leave him very exposed. His co-conspirators have already started taking plea deals. Those deals require them to nail Trump.
He is an old man going to jail. Rightly so. You don't get to try to overthrow an election of the US people, shrug your shoulders and go "Oh well....".
2024 will be a cascading series of disasters for Trump, from which he is unable to escape. They will culminate with him being put in jail for many years. The Republican Party is just going to have to resolve the issue of Donald Trump as best they can. But he will not be their candidate.
A brave and clear prediction. Fair play to you for being bold.
I wish I had your faith that the american legal system can deliver in time to stop a Trump presidency. The other issue is what happens to civil order if he is barred by supreme court from running in a number of states?
Well, they have the advantage that, whereas the rioters last time naively thought that Trump's incitement would give them some kind of protection, the next lot know their likely fate, being able to see the ruined lives and long sentences dished out to some of the first lot.
In other news, if it looks like Labour will stroll it in England, it will likely reduce the pressure on Scots to abandon the SNP.
On the last point: SKS can't appeal in Scotland *and* England at the same time. It will be interesting to see how far the Scottish Labour Party also feel free to ignore party discipline.
He couldn't once but can now. In England he isn't a Tory and in Scotland he is a social democrat but not tarnished by corruption. Over 50% of Scots don't much want independence, and most scots are left of centre. Nowhere else to go.
last poll had it as 58% wanted it and rising, they are sick of the parasites in Westminster. For sure London Labour are not the answer for Scotland, will need a night of the long knoves and lots of hard work to get rid of the colonial carpetbaggers. People will not accept being a colony long term and it is getting worse with Jackboot Jack and his ilk..
Happy New Year malc , hope 2024 is a good one for you .
@Alanbrooke Same to you Alan , hope 2024 is a good year for you and your family
Comments
I agree the trains thing is largely myth
However he did drain a few swamps and eradicated malaria in a couple of places
He wasn’t a total imbecile. He was popular (at first) for a reason. If he hadn’t allied with Hitler he might be seen very differently by history (still an autocrat but not one of the worst)
I would add the proviso that I don't actually think those figures are realistic. Most friends and family including myself are finding we have far less disposable income than at pretty much any time in the last decade so my experience, flawed as it may be, does not chime with those figrues at all.
It was amazing 10 years ago
So where is the best airport lounge in the world? Changi?
It marginally increases the chance of winning (even if the peak of "expected seats won" is lower, the spread will be wider.) Basically, Something Might Turn Up.
It substantially increases "time until Rishi has to face the public". It's very human to think that a problem delayed is a problem solved.
(As for pay rises, it's worth remembering how tight the public sector budgets are and how many people are paid by the government, one way or another.)
https://www.itv.com/news/2024-01-01/champagne-sales-in-house-of-lords-reach-highest-level-for-five-years
Are these the figures the government was trying to hide?
NEW THREAD
But having said that, looks like events in Japan mean the year's already had its first natural disaster
https://www.dubaiairports.ae/while-youre-here/relax-refresh/lounges/lounge-details/al-majlis-lounge
You arrive in their current-model BMW 7 series, which picked you up from anywhere in the UAE, go into one of 25 totally private suites, order food from a menu prepared by a Michelin-starred chef, and drink the Krug while you’re waiting for it.
At some point, your passport control officer will come and say hi, take your passports for stamping and bring them back to you.
Once you’ve decided whether you want to be first or last to board the plane, you wait to be called to walk through your private security gate and out airside to another 7-series, which takes you straight to the plane.
You will never see another guest.
It costs £500 per person.
There’s now also a similar one at LAX.
They start seizing assets and he plays it as an establishment attack on the people’s saviour?
But HMG can't complain - they are always doing the same thing to make themselves look better, e.g. when spending money intended for the north of England on what might charitably be described as not quite southernmost Devon etc.
It could be averages are hiding that some people are doing just fine while others not so fine. I suspect the haves own their houses outright or took out mortgages years ago, while the-nots pay rent or have early stage mortgages.
(Too dark?)
Others will accept that if you cheat and swindle and play the little people as saps, then that is justice.
Then they would fail to call the people in the lounge, who then watched their flight take off.
Happy days of international travel....
That said, the de Santis campaign seems to be running on fumes.
“He started the primary on third base and stole second,” said David Jolly, who served with DeSantis as a fellow Republican member of Congress from Florida. “We’ve now witnessed one of the most expensive and embarrassing collapses in Republican history.”
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/ron-desantis-collapse-trump_n_658ca832e4b014ec45a31537
My prediction of a natural disaster is simply on the basis of probability. In most decades a few things dominate the news for weeks or months:
- domestic and Anglosphere political crises and elections, every 2-3 years.
- Economic crises (usually one big one per decade, and a couple of smaller / false alarm ones). Last one was of course the cozzy livs crisis.
- Natural disasters including pandemics, floods, quakes and tsunamis, hurricanes. Loads every year but usually two or three big ones per decade that demand global or regional attention
- big sporting stories like the olympics or World Cup. Dropping in significance in recent years.
- wars and coups. They come and go and we’re in a bit of a rich vein currently, but still the big ones are more like once a decade
The last major natural disaster of global significance was Covid. Before that the Ebola outbreak in Guinea and West Africa, before that the Japanese tsunami and Thai floods, which disrupted global supply chains, before that the series of droughts in food producing regions that led to the Arab spring, before that Hurricane Katrina and a year earlier the Indian Ocean tsunami. And before that the apocalyptic Central European floods of 1997. We are due another this year or next. But notably it’s years since a huge volcanic eruption and decades since a major crop blight.
Domestic natural disasters have been thin on the ground too. It’s a long time since the 2013 floods that got Cameron in trouble, the foot and mouth epidemic that trashed UK farming, the catastrophic flooding of Boscastle, the 2007 summer floods.
So if a major natural disaster doesn’t dominate and derail the news agenda this year at some point we’ll be lucky.
Only time I’ve been in an airport “premium” lounge with most people - literally most people - sitting or lying on the floor, and no alcoholic drinks because they’d run out.
Same to you Alan , hope 2024 is a good year for you and your family