I agree with the Meekster about December for the GE. October is out because KC3 and his favourite equine mount will be glad handing in the southern hemisphere for most of October and May is recockulous because that's just chucking seven months of power away.
Big Rish doesn't give a fuck about the state of the tory party after the GE as he will be off to be Musk's pool boy at his third best house. So any consideration about how the result will be worse in December is irrelevant.
Yes and that is why I think Rishi will hang on to January 2025.
ETA a month longer in Downing Street; another Christmas at Chequers; and a campaign over Christmas and the New Year holidays will neutralise the opposition parties' advantage in the ground game.
OGH's header also mentions a 2025 general election as a value bet.
Here goes my predictions, which are pretty off the cuff rather than the product of deep thought.
1) Whether technical recession or not, economic performance will flat line at the beginning of the year, but pick up a little second half. Inflation will drop to 2% by the summer, and interest rates will come down a little. 3.5% by year end.
2) The UK General Election will be late November/early December. This is the reverse of my betting position, which is for a May Election. If polls start improving then Sunak will hold out for further movement. If they are static or declining further he won't go early, though won't stifle Election talk.
3) The SNP will do badly with 15-25 seats, Lib Dems will be 25-35 seats. Greens will gain vote share but lose their seat, Reform will get no seats and fail to keep their deposit in more than a handful. The Tories will be 175 +/- 50 seats. This puts Lab on 400 +/- 50 seats. I have done these as ranges, but if forced to be more specific would go for the midpoint of each.
4) Putin will win the election in Russia, Modi in India both consolidating their autocracies, Biden-Trump could go either way, but I think Biden will edge it.
5) The Ukraine war will continue as stalemate, with the Ukranians holding on in defence and making it costly for Russia. Ukranian begging will become more desperate for weapons, but financial support will be forthcoming from Europe. Gaza will be a running sore for Israel, and the war likely to expand into West Bank and Southern Lebanon. China will become more bellicose towards Taiwan, but won't invade.
6) Man City will win the League and Leicester will be promoted with a record points total from the Championship. The summer Olympics will be fun, and good public relations for Macron but no obvious successor.
For those of the "glass half empty" persuasion, the nightmare after Christmas!
Trump gets the nom and the EC. Retribution for 2020 is swift, vengeful and violent. The US becomes an autocracy.
China subsumes Taiwan on February 1st 2025.
The Conservatives (not necessarily led by Sunak) sneak a 20 seat green shoots win on a low vote share with 50 plus seats with majorities of less than a thousand in an ultra low turnout New Year 2025 election. After a successful pre-election Christmas Eve 100 seat flight to Rwanda the policy is quietly shelved. The boats keep coming, but a crackdown on legal migration means net migration figures reduce to less than 100,000. Staff shortages mean the NHS backlog is struggling to improve. Enough are dying whilst on the list to allow the figures to appear to be better than they otherwise might look. The NHS is sold to Cedars Sinai Healthcare for a nominal £10. Several Cabinet Ministers' wives are made Executive Directors. Richard Burgon becomes LOTO and as a result the Conservative poll lead extends to plus 20. Reform beat Labour into fourth place in the 2025 locals.
Ukraine grinds on until Trump throws them to the dogs on January 21st 2025. The USA leaves NATO.
Palestinians are cleared from the river to the sea. Netanyahu remains PM. Lebanon becomes the new Gaza. The world looks on and does nothing. Jared Kushner is appointed Secretary of State.
Villa win the 2023/24 Premiership title.
That all looks OK and reasonable until you realise that Arsenal are going to mess up again but this time with Villa? Steady on.
Part 2: I expect Colorado and Maine to be joined this month by other states moving to exclude him from the ballot. These will create a need for the issue to be urgently reviewed by the Supreme Court. Controversially perhaps, I do not expect Trump to win on this issue. Two of the right-wing Supreme Court justices have already given judgments in their prior careers that have supported the rights of the individual states to decide how to best protect their ballots. I suspect they will go along with the similar notion - which will mean they will not interfere to put Trump back on the ballot. To do otherwise is going to require some considerable and obvious contortions.
I also expect Trump to fail in a case appealing the outcome in the senior court in Washington DC finding that Trump has no absolute Presidential immunity. Anything else would leave the US Constitution open to utter abuse by a future President, be that Trump or A N Other. Indeed, in the most extreme outcome, Biden could take Trump out and shoot him - and then claim that same immunity. Once Trump has no immunity, his actions on and in the run up to January 6th and the storming of Congress to prevent the certification of the 2000 election leave him very exposed. His co-conspirators have already started taking plea deals. Those deals require them to nail Trump.
He is an old man going to jail. Rightly so. You don't get to try to overthrow an election of the US people, shrug your shoulders and go "Oh well....".
2024 will be a cascading series of disasters for Trump, from which he is unable to escape. They will culminate with him being put in jail for many years. The Republican Party is just going to have to resolve the issue of Donald Trump as best they can. But he will not be their candidate.
I'm going to make a prediction that one of or both Biden and Trump has a significant health issue causing them to drop out at the last minute.
I think that the worst Trumps many issues will be delayed until after the election.
Trump especially is going to be under the sort of strain that would fell a guy thirty years younger.
A "health event" that prevents his running is the best escape route for Trump. Also the best way to stay out of jail.
Part 2: I expect Colorado and Maine to be joined this month by other states moving to exclude him from the ballot. These will create a need for the issue to be urgently reviewed by the Supreme Court. Controversially perhaps, I do not expect Trump to win on this issue. Two of the right-wing Supreme Court justices have already given judgments in their prior careers that have supported the rights of the individual states to decide how to best protect their ballots. I suspect they will go along with the similar notion - which will mean they will not interfere to put Trump back on the ballot. To do otherwise is going to require some considerable and obvious contortions.
I also expect Trump to fail in a case appealing the outcome in the senior court in Washington DC finding that Trump has no absolute Presidential immunity. Anything else would leave the US Constitution open to utter abuse by a future President, be that Trump or A N Other. Indeed, in the most extreme outcome, Biden could take Trump out and shoot him - and then claim that same immunity. Once Trump has no immunity, his actions on and in the run up to January 6th and the storming of Congress to prevent the certification of the 2000 election leave him very exposed. His co-conspirators have already started taking plea deals. Those deals require them to nail Trump.
He is an old man going to jail. Rightly so. You don't get to try to overthrow an election of the US people, shrug your shoulders and go "Oh well....".
2024 will be a cascading series of disasters for Trump, from which he is unable to escape. They will culminate with him being put in jail for many years. The Republican Party is just going to have to resolve the issue of Donald Trump as best they can. But he will not be their candidate.
A brave and clear prediction. Fair play to you for being bold.
I wish I had your faith that the american legal system can deliver in time to stop a Trump presidency. The other issue is what happens to civil order if he is barred by supreme court from running in a number of states?
Well, they have the advantage that, whereas the rioters last time naively thought that Trump's incitement would give them some kind of protection, the next lot know their likely fate, being able to see the ruined lives and long sentences dished out to some of the first lot.
In other news, if it looks like Labour will stroll it in England, it will likely reduce the pressure on Scots to abandon the SNP.
On the last point: SKS can't appeal in Scotland *and* England at the same time. It will be interesting to see how far the Scottish Labour Party also feel free to ignore party discipline.
Part 2: I expect Colorado and Maine to be joined this month by other states moving to exclude him from the ballot. These will create a need for the issue to be urgently reviewed by the Supreme Court. Controversially perhaps, I do not expect Trump to win on this issue. Two of the right-wing Supreme Court justices have already given judgments in their prior careers that have supported the rights of the individual states to decide how to best protect their ballots. I suspect they will go along with the similar notion - which will mean they will not interfere to put Trump back on the ballot. To do otherwise is going to require some considerable and obvious contortions.
I also expect Trump to fail in a case appealing the outcome in the senior court in Washington DC finding that Trump has no absolute Presidential immunity. Anything else would leave the US Constitution open to utter abuse by a future President, be that Trump or A N Other. Indeed, in the most extreme outcome, Biden could take Trump out and shoot him - and then claim that same immunity. Once Trump has no immunity, his actions on and in the run up to January 6th and the storming of Congress to prevent the certification of the 2000 election leave him very exposed. His co-conspirators have already started taking plea deals. Those deals require them to nail Trump.
He is an old man going to jail. Rightly so. You don't get to try to overthrow an election of the US people, shrug your shoulders and go "Oh well....".
2024 will be a cascading series of disasters for Trump, from which he is unable to escape. They will culminate with him being put in jail for many years. The Republican Party is just going to have to resolve the issue of Donald Trump as best they can. But he will not be their candidate.
I'm going to make a prediction that one of or both Biden and Trump has a significant health issue causing them to drop out at the last minute.
I think that the worst Trumps many issues will be delayed until after the election.
Trump especially is going to be under the sort of strain that would fell a guy thirty years younger.
A "health event" that prevents his running is the best escape route for Trump. Also the best way to stay out of jail.
Part 2: I expect Colorado and Maine to be joined this month by other states moving to exclude him from the ballot. These will create a need for the issue to be urgently reviewed by the Supreme Court. Controversially perhaps, I do not expect Trump to win on this issue. Two of the right-wing Supreme Court justices have already given judgments in their prior careers that have supported the rights of the individual states to decide how to best protect their ballots. I suspect they will go along with the similar notion - which will mean they will not interfere to put Trump back on the ballot. To do otherwise is going to require some considerable and obvious contortions.
I also expect Trump to fail in a case appealing the outcome in the senior court in Washington DC finding that Trump has no absolute Presidential immunity. Anything else would leave the US Constitution open to utter abuse by a future President, be that Trump or A N Other. Indeed, in the most extreme outcome, Biden could take Trump out and shoot him - and then claim that same immunity. Once Trump has no immunity, his actions on and in the run up to January 6th and the storming of Congress to prevent the certification of the 2000 election leave him very exposed. His co-conspirators have already started taking plea deals. Those deals require them to nail Trump.
He is an old man going to jail. Rightly so. You don't get to try to overthrow an election of the US people, shrug your shoulders and go "Oh well....".
2024 will be a cascading series of disasters for Trump, from which he is unable to escape. They will culminate with him being put in jail for many years. The Republican Party is just going to have to resolve the issue of Donald Trump as best they can. But he will not be their candidate.
I'm going to make a prediction that one of or both Biden and Trump has a significant health issue causing them to drop out at the last minute.
I think that the worst Trumps many issues will be delayed until after the election.
Trump especially is going to be under the sort of strain that would fell a guy thirty years younger.
A "health event" that prevents his running is the best escape route for Trump. Also the best way to stay out of jail.
A terminal one would certainly work.
That would be the best escape route for America.....
Where I think that some of the US predictions fall down is believing in the fundamental decency of human nature. The SCOTUS judges will do the decent thing and stop Trump from running, and/or his voters will turn away from him in disgust.
I don't think that will happen. I think that Trump, as a candidate, will gain Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, which gives 264 seats in the Electoral College. Biden may just eke out a win, but he's just one mid-size State away from defeat.
TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.
Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.
Meeks excellent as always. Personally disagree with about three of his, namely I think:
GE in September Labour will lead government but with fewer than 326 seats Trump will be POTUS.
Which means betting against the three above should be a modest but tidy accumulator. DYOR.
Part 2: I expect Colorado and Maine to be joined this month by other states moving to exclude him from the ballot. These will create a need for the issue to be urgently reviewed by the Supreme Court. Controversially perhaps, I do not expect Trump to win on this issue. Two of the right-wing Supreme Court justices have already given judgments in their prior careers that have supported the rights of the individual states to decide how to best protect their ballots. I suspect they will go along with the similar notion - which will mean they will not interfere to put Trump back on the ballot. To do otherwise is going to require some considerable and obvious contortions.
I also expect Trump to fail in a case appealing the outcome in the senior court in Washington DC finding that Trump has no absolute Presidential immunity. Anything else would leave the US Constitution open to utter abuse by a future President, be that Trump or A N Other. Indeed, in the most extreme outcome, Biden could take Trump out and shoot him - and then claim that same immunity. Once Trump has no immunity, his actions on and in the run up to January 6th and the storming of Congress to prevent the certification of the 2000 election leave him very exposed. His co-conspirators have already started taking plea deals. Those deals require them to nail Trump.
He is an old man going to jail. Rightly so. You don't get to try to overthrow an election of the US people, shrug your shoulders and go "Oh well....".
2024 will be a cascading series of disasters for Trump, from which he is unable to escape. They will culminate with him being put in jail for many years. The Republican Party is just going to have to resolve the issue of Donald Trump as best they can. But he will not be their candidate.
A brave and clear prediction. Fair play to you for being bold.
I wish I had your faith that the american legal system can deliver in time to stop a Trump presidency. The other issue is what happens to civil order if he is barred by supreme court from running in a number of states?
Well, they have the advantage that, whereas the rioters last time naively thought that Trump's incitement would give them some kind of protection, the next lot know their likely fate, being able to see the ruined lives and long sentences dished out to some of the first lot.
In other news, if it looks like Labour will stroll it in England, it will likely reduce the pressure on Scots to abandon the SNP.
I'm not sure relying on these alt-right hot heads to stop and think 'the last lot ended up in jail' is going to cut it when their saviour and blessed hero is barred from running or loses the ECV.
Washington is going to be under virtual martial law the days around the result imho.
I agree with the Meekster about December for the GE. October is out because KC3 and his favourite equine mount will be glad handing in the southern hemisphere for most of October and May is recockulous because that's just chucking seven months of power away.
Big Rish doesn't give a fuck about the state of the tory party after the GE as he will be off to be Musk's pool boy at his third best house. So any consideration about how the result will be worse in December is irrelevant.
Yes and that is why I think Rishi will hang on to January 2025.
ETA a month longer in Downing Street; another Christmas at Chequers; and a campaign over Christmas and the New Year holidays will neutralise the opposition parties' advantage in the ground game.
OGH's header also mentions a 2025 general election as a value bet.
The other argument for a very late election (January '25 strikes me as mad, but December '24 feels too plausible) is that it's the default. It's what happens in the absence of a decision to press the big red button.
I’ve enjoyed a blissful 2 months away, and indeed 2 months away from the News. It has been a wonderful time of renewal.
I hope peeps are well. I expect I won’t spend a lot of time on here until the election, especially if it continues to be filled with Leon’s imho somewhat sad quasi-facebook travelogues.
How’s your flask ?
And there’s the sort-of reason why I don’t reside on here.
The flask is good. Right next to me and currently filled with Lavazza coffee because I’m staying at a friend’s.
But please leave out the snide male posturing stuff. You’re better than that, I hope.
You all. Keep it softer and kinder on here you might even see more of us younger females posting on here. Particularly important in the run up to the election when newcomers should be made to feel welcome. It’s a big year for political betting.
On China, there's an election there early this month (13th, I think?). It'll be interesting to see what happens wrt the China-sceptic current government, and the more China-friendly opposition.
I expect Xi's actions will depend on who wins, and by the amount.
Part 2: I expect Colorado and Maine to be joined this month by other states moving to exclude him from the ballot. These will create a need for the issue to be urgently reviewed by the Supreme Court. Controversially perhaps, I do not expect Trump to win on this issue. Two of the right-wing Supreme Court justices have already given judgments in their prior careers that have supported the rights of the individual states to decide how to best protect their ballots. I suspect they will go along with the similar notion - which will mean they will not interfere to put Trump back on the ballot. To do otherwise is going to require some considerable and obvious contortions.
I also expect Trump to fail in a case appealing the outcome in the senior court in Washington DC finding that Trump has no absolute Presidential immunity. Anything else would leave the US Constitution open to utter abuse by a future President, be that Trump or A N Other. Indeed, in the most extreme outcome, Biden could take Trump out and shoot him - and then claim that same immunity. Once Trump has no immunity, his actions on and in the run up to January 6th and the storming of Congress to prevent the certification of the 2000 election leave him very exposed. His co-conspirators have already started taking plea deals. Those deals require them to nail Trump.
He is an old man going to jail. Rightly so. You don't get to try to overthrow an election of the US people, shrug your shoulders and go "Oh well....".
2024 will be a cascading series of disasters for Trump, from which he is unable to escape. They will culminate with him being put in jail for many years. The Republican Party is just going to have to resolve the issue of Donald Trump as best they can. But he will not be their candidate.
A brave and clear prediction. Fair play to you for being bold.
I wish I had your faith that the american legal system can deliver in time to stop a Trump presidency. The other issue is what happens to civil order if he is barred by supreme court from running in a number of states?
Well, they have the advantage that, whereas the rioters last time naively thought that Trump's incitement would give them some kind of protection, the next lot know their likely fate, being able to see the ruined lives and long sentences dished out to some of the first lot.
In other news, if it looks like Labour will stroll it in England, it will likely reduce the pressure on Scots to abandon the SNP.
On the last point: SKS can't appeal in Scotland *and* England at the same time. It will be interesting to see how far the Scottish Labour Party also feel free to ignore party discipline.
He couldn't once but can now. In England he isn't a Tory and in Scotland he is a social democrat but not tarnished by corruption. Over 50% of Scots don't much want independence, and most scots are left of centre. Nowhere else to go.
Is this going to become the main story this week once Fleet Street gets back to work? Or are the D Notices already flowing?
Robert Peston @Peston After the former most powerful government official has asserted that the UK’s nuclear weapons and defence capability is dangerously fragile, the government will surely have to make a statement to parliament. See attached from @Dominic2306
I don't think any of The Dominator's relevations are news to anybody who has been paying attention. The RN has 10 submarines (shortly to be 9, thanks tories) of which 8 currently work consuming 50% of the service's budget.
50% of the budget? Capital or running? That much? With expensive 'targets' (as my ex-submariner colleague at work used to call them) such as QE2 and PoW and all the 'destroyers' to pay for?
There are currently 4 ageing Vanguard class submarines, HMS vanguard has just come out of refit after 7 years (longer than it took to build in the first place). The problem with this kind of ageing kit is it becomes harder to maintain (ask any steam enthusiast trying to repair an engine).
With the Vanguard class already past it's originally planned life and the Dreadnought submarines not expected until the 2030s the next few years will be touch and go for the countries Continuous At Sea Deterrent.
Part 2: I expect Colorado and Maine to be joined this month by other states moving to exclude him from the ballot. These will create a need for the issue to be urgently reviewed by the Supreme Court. Controversially perhaps, I do not expect Trump to win on this issue. Two of the right-wing Supreme Court justices have already given judgments in their prior careers that have supported the rights of the individual states to decide how to best protect their ballots. I suspect they will go along with the similar notion - which will mean they will not interfere to put Trump back on the ballot. To do otherwise is going to require some considerable and obvious contortions.
I also expect Trump to fail in a case appealing the outcome in the senior court in Washington DC finding that Trump has no absolute Presidential immunity. Anything else would leave the US Constitution open to utter abuse by a future President, be that Trump or A N Other. Indeed, in the most extreme outcome, Biden could take Trump out and shoot him - and then claim that same immunity. Once Trump has no immunity, his actions on and in the run up to January 6th and the storming of Congress to prevent the certification of the 2000 election leave him very exposed. His co-conspirators have already started taking plea deals. Those deals require them to nail Trump.
He is an old man going to jail. Rightly so. You don't get to try to overthrow an election of the US people, shrug your shoulders and go "Oh well....".
2024 will be a cascading series of disasters for Trump, from which he is unable to escape. They will culminate with him being put in jail for many years. The Republican Party is just going to have to resolve the issue of Donald Trump as best they can. But he will not be their candidate.
It's possible - but he's not going to jail this side of the election. No trial is going to be done soon enough to allow for the three to four months any sentencing process will take.
Which would make things interesting, even if the GOP were to boot him as a candidate.
Being found guilty of a criminal charge - even if sentence isn't confirmed - will be enough to turn Trump into toast.
And his Georgia trial will happen this year. One which the new Republican candidate cannot pardon him for, as it is not federal.
I probably agree, on balance that it would be a toast situation. But it will be a good test of how far down the rabbit hole both the Republican Party, and America as a whole, find themselves.
I agree with the Meekster about December for the GE. October is out because KC3 and his favourite equine mount will be glad handing in the southern hemisphere for most of October and May is recockulous because that's just chucking seven months of power away.
Big Rish doesn't give a fuck about the state of the tory party after the GE as he will be off to be Musk's pool boy at his third best house. So any consideration about how the result will be worse in December is irrelevant.
Yes and that is why I think Rishi will hang on to January 2025.
ETA a month longer in Downing Street; another Christmas at Chequers; and a campaign over Christmas and the New Year holidays will neutralise the opposition parties' advantage in the ground game.
I am pretty sure Rishi's normal digs are bigger than Chequers so I doubt that has much of an attraction.
1. Trump will run, be nominee and win the 2024 POTUS race. It will be so close there will be some kind of Supreme Court challenge by Dems and there will be major civil unrest. Lots of examples of GOP poll rigging and so on.
2. Lab lead in UK will narrow significantly once GE campaign formally begins, Starmer will panic, u-turn mid-campaign on a few things, but in the end will secure a working majority but nothing spectacular. Reform will not poll anywhere near 10%.
3. Inflation will fall rapidly next year and the conversation will switch to 'are we in danger of deflation?'
4. UK will be hit by worst summer heatwave on record. Brutal couple of months. Net Zero will be back in favour.
Where I think that some of the US predictions fall down is believing in the fundamental decency of human nature. The SCOTUS judges will do the decent thing and stop Trump from running, and/or his voters will turn away from him in disgust.
I don't think that will happen. I think that Trump, as a candidate, will gain Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, which gives 264 seats in the Electoral College. Biden may just eke out a win, but he's just one mid-size State away from defeat.
The Trump phenomenon affirms this view. The Economist says 30% of Americans believe he is appointed by God, including vast numbers of self styled Evangelicals. I am not Evangelical but it makes be grateful for the UK sort - who run foodbanks and Christians Against Poverty etc, and mostly vote LD and think Jesus was basically a good chap.
Part 2: I expect Colorado and Maine to be joined this month by other states moving to exclude him from the ballot. These will create a need for the issue to be urgently reviewed by the Supreme Court. Controversially perhaps, I do not expect Trump to win on this issue. Two of the right-wing Supreme Court justices have already given judgments in their prior careers that have supported the rights of the individual states to decide how to best protect their ballots. I suspect they will go along with the similar notion - which will mean they will not interfere to put Trump back on the ballot. To do otherwise is going to require some considerable and obvious contortions.
I also expect Trump to fail in a case appealing the outcome in the senior court in Washington DC finding that Trump has no absolute Presidential immunity. Anything else would leave the US Constitution open to utter abuse by a future President, be that Trump or A N Other. Indeed, in the most extreme outcome, Biden could take Trump out and shoot him - and then claim that same immunity. Once Trump has no immunity, his actions on and in the run up to January 6th and the storming of Congress to prevent the certification of the 2000 election leave him very exposed. His co-conspirators have already started taking plea deals. Those deals require them to nail Trump.
He is an old man going to jail. Rightly so. You don't get to try to overthrow an election of the US people, shrug your shoulders and go "Oh well....".
2024 will be a cascading series of disasters for Trump, from which he is unable to escape. They will culminate with him being put in jail for many years. The Republican Party is just going to have to resolve the issue of Donald Trump as best they can. But he will not be their candidate.
I'm going to make a prediction that one of or both Biden and Trump has a significant health issue causing them to drop out at the last minute.
I think that the worst Trumps many issues will be delayed until after the election.
Trump especially is going to be under the sort of strain that would fell a guy thirty years younger.
A "health event" that prevents his running is the best escape route for Trump. Also the best way to stay out of jail.
A terminal one would certainly work.
That would be the best escape route for America.....
American NVSS mortality data suggests it's about a 5% chance, for the average white male at that age.
Part 2: I expect Colorado and Maine to be joined this month by other states moving to exclude him from the ballot. These will create a need for the issue to be urgently reviewed by the Supreme Court. Controversially perhaps, I do not expect Trump to win on this issue. Two of the right-wing Supreme Court justices have already given judgments in their prior careers that have supported the rights of the individual states to decide how to best protect their ballots. I suspect they will go along with the similar notion - which will mean they will not interfere to put Trump back on the ballot. To do otherwise is going to require some considerable and obvious contortions.
I also expect Trump to fail in a case appealing the outcome in the senior court in Washington DC finding that Trump has no absolute Presidential immunity. Anything else would leave the US Constitution open to utter abuse by a future President, be that Trump or A N Other. Indeed, in the most extreme outcome, Biden could take Trump out and shoot him - and then claim that same immunity. Once Trump has no immunity, his actions on and in the run up to January 6th and the storming of Congress to prevent the certification of the 2000 election leave him very exposed. His co-conspirators have already started taking plea deals. Those deals require them to nail Trump.
He is an old man going to jail. Rightly so. You don't get to try to overthrow an election of the US people, shrug your shoulders and go "Oh well....".
2024 will be a cascading series of disasters for Trump, from which he is unable to escape. They will culminate with him being put in jail for many years. The Republican Party is just going to have to resolve the issue of Donald Trump as best they can. But he will not be their candidate.
It's possible - but he's not going to jail this side of the election. No trial is going to be done soon enough to allow for the three to four months any sentencing process will take.
Which would make things interesting, even if the GOP were to boot him as a candidate.
Being found guilty of a criminal charge - even if sentence isn't confirmed - will be enough to turn Trump into toast.
And his Georgia trial will happen this year. One which the new Republican candidate cannot pardon him for, as it is not federal.
I probably agree, on balance that it would be a toast situation. But it will be a good test of how far down the rabbit hole both the Republican Party, and America as a whole, find themselves.
The evidence so far suggests that such events confirm the Trump base's view that not only is he a prophet, he is also a martyr. They are that far down the rabbit hole.
Part 2: I expect Colorado and Maine to be joined this month by other states moving to exclude him from the ballot. These will create a need for the issue to be urgently reviewed by the Supreme Court. Controversially perhaps, I do not expect Trump to win on this issue. Two of the right-wing Supreme Court justices have already given judgments in their prior careers that have supported the rights of the individual states to decide how to best protect their ballots. I suspect they will go along with the similar notion - which will mean they will not interfere to put Trump back on the ballot. To do otherwise is going to require some considerable and obvious contortions.
I also expect Trump to fail in a case appealing the outcome in the senior court in Washington DC finding that Trump has no absolute Presidential immunity. Anything else would leave the US Constitution open to utter abuse by a future President, be that Trump or A N Other. Indeed, in the most extreme outcome, Biden could take Trump out and shoot him - and then claim that same immunity. Once Trump has no immunity, his actions on and in the run up to January 6th and the storming of Congress to prevent the certification of the 2000 election leave him very exposed. His co-conspirators have already started taking plea deals. Those deals require them to nail Trump.
He is an old man going to jail. Rightly so. You don't get to try to overthrow an election of the US people, shrug your shoulders and go "Oh well....".
2024 will be a cascading series of disasters for Trump, from which he is unable to escape. They will culminate with him being put in jail for many years. The Republican Party is just going to have to resolve the issue of Donald Trump as best they can. But he will not be their candidate.
It's possible - but he's not going to jail this side of the election. No trial is going to be done soon enough to allow for the three to four months any sentencing process will take.
Which would make things interesting, even if the GOP were to boot him as a candidate.
I know nothing but if he was convicted, would the judge really let him wander around freely pending sentencing? He has his own private jet and numerous friends in foreign governments and US border patrol, I think he'd be an obvious flight risk?
Part 2: I expect Colorado and Maine to be joined this month by other states moving to exclude him from the ballot. These will create a need for the issue to be urgently reviewed by the Supreme Court. Controversially perhaps, I do not expect Trump to win on this issue. Two of the right-wing Supreme Court justices have already given judgments in their prior careers that have supported the rights of the individual states to decide how to best protect their ballots. I suspect they will go along with the similar notion - which will mean they will not interfere to put Trump back on the ballot. To do otherwise is going to require some considerable and obvious contortions.
I also expect Trump to fail in a case appealing the outcome in the senior court in Washington DC finding that Trump has no absolute Presidential immunity. Anything else would leave the US Constitution open to utter abuse by a future President, be that Trump or A N Other. Indeed, in the most extreme outcome, Biden could take Trump out and shoot him - and then claim that same immunity. Once Trump has no immunity, his actions on and in the run up to January 6th and the storming of Congress to prevent the certification of the 2000 election leave him very exposed. His co-conspirators have already started taking plea deals. Those deals require them to nail Trump.
He is an old man going to jail. Rightly so. You don't get to try to overthrow an election of the US people, shrug your shoulders and go "Oh well....".
2024 will be a cascading series of disasters for Trump, from which he is unable to escape. They will culminate with him being put in jail for many years. The Republican Party is just going to have to resolve the issue of Donald Trump as best they can. But he will not be their candidate.
I'm going to make a prediction that one of or both Biden and Trump has a significant health issue causing them to drop out at the last minute.
I think that the worst Trumps many issues will be delayed until after the election.
Trump especially is going to be under the sort of strain that would fell a guy thirty years younger.
A "health event" that prevents his running is the best escape route for Trump. Also the best way to stay out of jail.
I think it's more likely to be Biden. he's going to have to do a lot more active campaigning this time around and he's certainly looking his age now.
Part 2: I expect Colorado and Maine to be joined this month by other states moving to exclude him from the ballot. These will create a need for the issue to be urgently reviewed by the Supreme Court. Controversially perhaps, I do not expect Trump to win on this issue. Two of the right-wing Supreme Court justices have already given judgments in their prior careers that have supported the rights of the individual states to decide how to best protect their ballots. I suspect they will go along with the similar notion - which will mean they will not interfere to put Trump back on the ballot. To do otherwise is going to require some considerable and obvious contortions.
I also expect Trump to fail in a case appealing the outcome in the senior court in Washington DC finding that Trump has no absolute Presidential immunity. Anything else would leave the US Constitution open to utter abuse by a future President, be that Trump or A N Other. Indeed, in the most extreme outcome, Biden could take Trump out and shoot him - and then claim that same immunity. Once Trump has no immunity, his actions on and in the run up to January 6th and the storming of Congress to prevent the certification of the 2000 election leave him very exposed. His co-conspirators have already started taking plea deals. Those deals require them to nail Trump.
He is an old man going to jail. Rightly so. You don't get to try to overthrow an election of the US people, shrug your shoulders and go "Oh well....".
2024 will be a cascading series of disasters for Trump, from which he is unable to escape. They will culminate with him being put in jail for many years. The Republican Party is just going to have to resolve the issue of Donald Trump as best they can. But he will not be their candidate.
It's possible - but he's not going to jail this side of the election. No trial is going to be done soon enough to allow for the three to four months any sentencing process will take.
Which would make things interesting, even if the GOP were to boot him as a candidate.
I know nothing but if he was convicted, would the judge really let him wander around freely pending sentencing? He has his own private jet and numerous friends in foreign governments and US border patrol, I think he'd be an obvious flight risk?
Yes but. In 2024 we are going to discover, 1930s style, to what extent individual and communal intimidation are factors in decision making when a state as great as the USA faces creeping fascist style authoritarian threats.
What exactly prevents Trump and Trumpism acting like Putin is the question. 2024 is a key year for this subject. Among the things we know is that Trump and Trumpists won't accept losing the nomination, and won't accept any result they don't like. They already possess the true fascist mentality.
Where I think that some of the US predictions fall down is believing in the fundamental decency of human nature. The SCOTUS judges will do the decent thing and stop Trump from running, and/or his voters will turn away from him in disgust.
I don't think that will happen. I think that Trump, as a candidate, will gain Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, which gives 264 seats in the Electoral College. Biden may just eke out a win, but he's just one mid-size State away from defeat.
The Trump phenomenon affirms this view. The Economist says 30% of Americans believe he is appointed by God, including vast numbers of self styled Evangelicals. I am not Evangelical but it makes be grateful for the UK sort - who run foodbanks and Christians Against Poverty etc, and mostly vote LD and think Jesus was basically a good chap.
There are true believers in Trump, and others who can rationalise their reasons for supporting him, but which basically come down to "he may be a son of a bitch, but at least he's our son of a bitch." Between them, these groups make up almost 50% of US voters.
Morning all! From a UK politics (and now personal perspective) I still believe its 2nd May. All of the reasons to hang on are out-gunned by the negatives in continuing past the locals - putting it simply Its The Stupid Tory Party Stupid.
Lets assume that 2 months of ramping followed by a giveaway budget aren't the success that Number 10 clearly hopes for. So the deadline to call 2nd May passes by with "what election?" as the response from Grant Shapps and Michael Green who are both sent out to do media rounds.
Tories then get an absolute hammering in the locals. Party is restless and unhappy because "wait for Steiner's counter attack inflation to drop" isn't a convincing raft to cling to. Talking about rafts, the weather brings another huge surge in small boats, with the Rwanda bill stuck in the Lords and Rwanda repeatedly warning that if the measures being talked up by Tory 5 Families are enacted, they are Out.
So Rishi is under constant fire from his own side, with little prospect of significant change in fortunes, a Big Bill from the giveaway budget causing further pain in the NHS and public services, and no bazooka left to fire in the autumn.
In summary, May 2024 is October 1978. Or he can cling on hoping for miracles and bring about another long run in opposition.
Here goes my predictions, which are pretty off the cuff rather than the product of deep thought.
1) Whether technical recession or not, economic performance will flat line at the beginning of the year, but pick up a little second half. Inflation will drop to 2% by the summer, and interest rates will come down a little. 3.5% by year end.
2) The UK General Election will be late November/early December. This is the reverse of my betting position, which is for a May Election. If polls start improving then Sunak will hold out for further movement. If they are static or declining further he won't go early, though won't stifle Election talk.
3) The SNP will do badly with 15-25 seats, Lib Dems will be 25-35 seats. Greens will gain vote share but lose their seat, Reform will get no seats and fail to keep their deposit in more than a handful. The Tories will be 175 +/- 50 seats. This puts Lab on 400 +/- 50 seats. I have done these as ranges, but if forced to be more specific would go for the midpoint of each.
4) Putin will win the election in Russia, Modi in India both consolidating their autocracies, Biden-Trump could go either way, but I think Biden will edge it.
5) The Ukraine war will continue as stalemate, with the Ukranians holding on in defence and making it costly for Russia. Ukranian begging will become more desperate for weapons, but financial support will be forthcoming from Europe. Gaza will be a running sore for Israel, and the war likely to expand into West Bank and Southern Lebanon. China will become more bellicose towards Taiwan, but won't invade.
6) Man City will win the League and Leicester will be promoted with a record points total from the Championship. The summer Olympics will be fun, and good public relations for Macron but no obvious successor.
Putin will win the election. Not a bold prediction.
Where I think that some of the US predictions fall down is believing in the fundamental decency of human nature. The SCOTUS judges will do the decent thing and stop Trump from running, and/or his voters will turn away from him in disgust.
I don't think that will happen. I think that Trump, as a candidate, will gain Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, which gives 264 seats in the Electoral College. Biden may just eke out a win, but he's just one mid-size State away from defeat.
The Trump phenomenon affirms this view. The Economist says 30% of Americans believe he is appointed by God, including vast numbers of self styled Evangelicals. I am not Evangelical but it makes be grateful for the UK sort - who run foodbanks and Christians Against Poverty etc, and mostly vote LD and think Jesus was basically a good chap.
There are true believers in Trump, and others who can rationalise their reasons for supporting him, but which basically come down to "he may be a son of a bitch, but at least he's our son of a bitch." Between them, these groups make up almost 50% of US voters.
And a lot of that 50% believe Trump's story that all these court cases are because the other 50% are doing anything and everything to stop him...
1. Labour's lead will drop to single figures by spring, as the Budget does its work and the search for reasons to dislike Starmer intensifies. 2. But it will then stabilise and Labour will win a comfortable overall majority, ca. 100. 3. LibDems will pick up quite a few Southern seats but otherwise make little progress. 4. Greens will end up with the same single seat. 5. Biden will win, more comfortably than most expect.
I’ve enjoyed a blissful 2 months away, and indeed 2 months away from the News. It has been a wonderful time of renewal.
I hope peeps are well. I expect I won’t spend a lot of time on here until the election, especially if it continues to be filled with Leon’s imho somewhat sad quasi-facebook travelogues.
How’s your flask ?
And there’s the sort-of reason why I don’t reside on here.
The flask is good. Right next to me and currently filled with Lavazza coffee because I’m staying at a friend’s.
But please leave out the snide male posturing stuff. You’re better than that, I hope.
You all. Keep it softer and kinder on here you might even see more of us younger females posting on here. Particularly important in the run up to the election when newcomers should be made to feel welcome. It’s a big year for political betting.
I’ve praised you numerous times for your insight into your local politics and even made money off your comments and thanked you for it. I’ve d told people who called you a troll you’re not
You’ve acknowledged it more than once.
All forgotten when I make a comment that is clearly nothing other than an an affectionate retort to a long term poster as it gives you a chance to posture yourself.
1. Labour's lead will drop to single figures by spring, as the Budget does its work and the search for reasons to dislike Starmer intensifies. 2. But it will then stabilise and Labour will win a comfortable overall majority, ca. 100. 3. LibDems will pick up quite a few Southern seats but otherwise make little progress. 4. Greens will end up with the same single seat. 5. Biden will win, more comfortably than most expect.
The concern of course isn't whether Biden will beat Trump. Its what Trump and his insurrectionists do afterwards...
1. Labour's lead will drop to single figures by spring, as the Budget does its work and the search for reasons to dislike Starmer intensifies. 2. But it will then stabilise and Labour will win a comfortable overall majority, ca. 100. 3. LibDems will pick up quite a few Southern seats but otherwise make little progress. 4. Greens will end up with the same single seat. 5. Biden will win, more comfortably than most expect.
I'm not so sure about the greens. I expect Labour to pick it up as Caroline Lucas is standing down
1. Labour's lead will drop to single figures by spring, as the Budget does its work and the search for reasons to dislike Starmer intensifies. 2. But it will then stabilise and Labour will win a comfortable overall majority, ca. 100. 3. LibDems will pick up quite a few Southern seats but otherwise make little progress. 4. Greens will end up with the same single seat. 5. Biden will win, more comfortably than most expect.
That would make the 'Labour majority' bet a screaming, trading lay...
"quite a few Southern seats" would suit the LibDems very nicely.
1. Labour's lead will drop to single figures by spring, as the Budget does its work and the search for reasons to dislike Starmer intensifies. 2. But it will then stabilise and Labour will win a comfortable overall majority, ca. 100. 3. LibDems will pick up quite a few Southern seats but otherwise make little progress. 4. Greens will end up with the same single seat. 5. Biden will win, more comfortably than most expect.
That would make the 'Labour majority' bet a screaming, trading lay...
"quite a few Southern seats" would suit the LibDems very nicely.
If they are honest it would suit *Labour* very nicely as well...
1. Labour's lead will drop to single figures by spring, as the Budget does its work and the search for reasons to dislike Starmer intensifies. 2. But it will then stabilise and Labour will win a comfortable overall majority, ca. 100. 3. LibDems will pick up quite a few Southern seats but otherwise make little progress. 4. Greens will end up with the same single seat. 5. Biden will win, more comfortably than most expect.
I'm not so sure about the greens. I expect Labour to pick it up as Caroline Lucas is standing down
Sian Berry is a reasonably charismatic candidate, and in the circs where Starmer doesn't have (even a smidgin of) Blair's popularity and Labour is strolling to a big majority, I think Nick is astute in suggesting that the Greens may hold on in Brighton. I remember that in some of the old Liberal seats in the old days, in areas where there wasn't really any Liberal tradition, voters nevertheless liked the uniqueness of standing out from the crowd and being represented by someone relatively well known. Brighton residents 'like to be different' isn't a heretical suggestion, is it?
So there's two good bets in his post.
I wonder when the seat markets will start to go up?
1. Labour's lead will drop to single figures by spring, as the Budget does its work and the search for reasons to dislike Starmer intensifies. 2. But it will then stabilise and Labour will win a comfortable overall majority, ca. 100. 3. LibDems will pick up quite a few Southern seats but otherwise make little progress. 4. Greens will end up with the same single seat. 5. Biden will win, more comfortably than most expect.
IMHO (1) is right and (2) over optimistic. From the budget onwards there will be a relentless programme of boosterism and damage limitation, massive attacks on the wicked Marxist threat, free owls and promises of free emus, with also the summer hols, Euros, Olympics getting the mood ready for an election just after the summer with Labour only a bit ahead. Result: NOM.
1. Labour's lead will drop to single figures by spring, as the Budget does its work and the search for reasons to dislike Starmer intensifies. 2. But it will then stabilise and Labour will win a comfortable overall majority, ca. 100. 3. LibDems will pick up quite a few Southern seats but otherwise make little progress. 4. Greens will end up with the same single seat. 5. Biden will win, more comfortably than most expect.
I'm not so sure about the greens. I expect Labour to pick it up as Caroline Lucas is standing down
Sian Berry is a reasonably charismatic candidate, and in the circs where Starmer doesn't have (even a smidgin of) Blair's popularity and Labour is strolling to a big majority, I think Nick is astute in suggesting that the Greens may hold on in Brighton. I remember that in some of the old Liberal seats in the old days, in areas where there wasn't really any Liberal tradition, voters nevertheless liked the uniqueness of standing out from the crowd and being represented by someone relatively well known.
I see it as more of a 'North Norfolk' locally the LibDems do well but a combination of change of MP and a resurgence of the natural party of the seat lead to a defeat.
1. Labour's lead will drop to single figures by spring, as the Budget does its work and the search for reasons to dislike Starmer intensifies. 2. But it will then stabilise and Labour will win a comfortable overall majority, ca. 100. 3. LibDems will pick up quite a few Southern seats but otherwise make little progress. 4. Greens will end up with the same single seat. 5. Biden will win, more comfortably than most expect.
The concern of course isn't whether Biden will beat Trump. Its what Trump and his insurrectionists do afterwards...
No, I think the concern is whether or not Biden beats Trump.
There will certainly be incidents if Biden wins, and one or two may even be nasty, but not ones that shake the foundations of the republic. Whereas Trump winning would be genuinely dangerous.
1. Labour's lead will drop to single figures by spring, as the Budget does its work and the search for reasons to dislike Starmer intensifies. 2. But it will then stabilise and Labour will win a comfortable overall majority, ca. 100. 3. LibDems will pick up quite a few Southern seats but otherwise make little progress. 4. Greens will end up with the same single seat. 5. Biden will win, more comfortably than most expect.
That would make the 'Labour majority' bet a screaming, trading lay...
"quite a few Southern seats" would suit the LibDems very nicely.
If they are honest it would suit *Labour* very nicely as well...
Strategically, you can argue it both ways.
If the Tories are only just short, it would certainly help Labour to make sure the Tories properly lose. Plus, history suggests that the bigger the loss, the greater the internal ructions that follow, the thinner the talent pool and other resources there are for the clawback, and the longer the opposing party will be out of power.
The LibDems can't use those southern seats to challenge Labour's majority and hence a dramatic Tory defeat could be in Labour's interests - as well as removing talented moderates like Hunt from the field.
On the other hand, we know that taking the long view it suits Labour to present British politics as a cosy two-party carve up, and to cling to the status quo voting system, which a large tranche of LibDems would call into question - maybe not right away, but the next time Labour falls short. LibDem MPs tend to stick around (barring some existential event like coalition).
And the very last thing Labour would want would be for a large moderate centre/centre-left party to be in competition, possibly alongside the rump of a Tory party that has swung yet further to the right. Even though you could argue that this sort of Scandinavian political set-up would in the long term benefit our country.
1. Labour's lead will drop to single figures by spring, as the Budget does its work and the search for reasons to dislike Starmer intensifies. 2. But it will then stabilise and Labour will win a comfortable overall majority, ca. 100. 3. LibDems will pick up quite a few Southern seats but otherwise make little progress. 4. Greens will end up with the same single seat. 5. Biden will win, more comfortably than most expect.
I'm not so sure about the greens. I expect Labour to pick it up as Caroline Lucas is standing down
Sian Berry is a reasonably charismatic candidate, and in the circs where Starmer doesn't have (even a smidgin of) Blair's popularity and Labour is strolling to a big majority, I think Nick is astute in suggesting that the Greens may hold on in Brighton. I remember that in some of the old Liberal seats in the old days, in areas where there wasn't really any Liberal tradition, voters nevertheless liked the uniqueness of standing out from the crowd and being represented by someone relatively well known. Brighton residents 'like to be different' isn't a heretical suggestion, is it?
So there's two good bets in his post.
I wonder when the seat markets will start to go up?
It's on a knife edge. The Brighton Greens were hammered by Labour in last May's elections, especially in Lucas's part of the city, mainly because they'd made a mess of running the council. The Labour run council is doing pretty well, especially on the visible things like emptying the bins and cleaning up the streets. And Labour has opted for a good local candidate, eschewing the high-risk candidacy of Eddie Izzard.
So, I'd put Labour narrow favourites. But it could go either way.
In case anyone hasn't watched it yet Dune comes off Amazon Prime this week and it won't be available in 4k on Netflix, it's one of the great sci-fi movies of this era.
1. Labour's lead will drop to single figures by spring, as the Budget does its work and the search for reasons to dislike Starmer intensifies. 2. But it will then stabilise and Labour will win a comfortable overall majority, ca. 100. 3. LibDems will pick up quite a few Southern seats but otherwise make little progress. 4. Greens will end up with the same single seat. 5. Biden will win, more comfortably than most expect.
I'm not so sure about the greens. I expect Labour to pick it up as Caroline Lucas is standing down
Sian Berry is a reasonably charismatic candidate, and in the circs where Starmer doesn't have (even a smidgin of) Blair's popularity and Labour is strolling to a big majority, I think Nick is astute in suggesting that the Greens may hold on in Brighton. I remember that in some of the old Liberal seats in the old days, in areas where there wasn't really any Liberal tradition, voters nevertheless liked the uniqueness of standing out from the crowd and being represented by someone relatively well known. Brighton residents 'like to be different' isn't a heretical suggestion, is it?
So there's two good bets in his post.
I wonder when the seat markets will start to go up?
It's on a knife edge. The Brighton Greens were hammered by Labour in last May's elections, especially in Lucas's part of the city, mainly because they'd made a mess of running the council. The Labour run council is doing pretty well, especially on the visible things like emptying the bins and cleaning up the streets. And Labour has opted for a good local candidate, eschewing the high-risk candidacy of Eddie Izzard.
So, I'd put Labour narrow favourites. But it could go either way.
Sadly I think it goes Labour and we lose the Green voice in Parliament.
1. Labour's lead will drop to single figures by spring, as the Budget does its work and the search for reasons to dislike Starmer intensifies. 2. But it will then stabilise and Labour will win a comfortable overall majority, ca. 100. 3. LibDems will pick up quite a few Southern seats but otherwise make little progress. 4. Greens will end up with the same single seat. 5. Biden will win, more comfortably than most expect.
The concern of course isn't whether Biden will beat Trump. Its what Trump and his insurrectionists do afterwards...
No, I think the concern is whether or not Biden beats Trump.
There will certainly be incidents if Biden wins, and one or two may even be nasty, but not ones that shake the foundations of the republic. Whereas Trump winning would be genuinely dangerous.
Trump losing he'll just continue his grifting.
Trump winning the best case I see is his bone idleness may outweigh his need for vengeance which may prevent him from being that mad other than making life v miserable for those he thinks betrayed him, rather than the entire country.
1. Labour's lead will drop to single figures by spring, as the Budget does its work and the search for reasons to dislike Starmer intensifies. 2. But it will then stabilise and Labour will win a comfortable overall majority, ca. 100. 3. LibDems will pick up quite a few Southern seats but otherwise make little progress. 4. Greens will end up with the same single seat. 5. Biden will win, more comfortably than most expect.
That would make the 'Labour majority' bet a screaming, trading lay...
"quite a few Southern seats" would suit the LibDems very nicely.
If they are honest it would suit *Labour* very nicely as well...
Strategically, you can argue it both ways.
If the Tories are only just short, it would certainly help Labour to make sure the Tories properly lose. Plus, history suggests that the bigger the loss, the greater the internal ructions that follow, the thinner the talent pool there is for the clawback, and the longer the opposing party will be out of power.
The LibDems can't use those southern seats to challenge Labour's majority and hence a dramatic Tory defeat could be in Labour's interests - as well as removing talented moderates like Hunt from the field.
On the other hand, we know that taking the long view it suits Labour to present British politics as a cosy two-party carve up, and to cling to the status quo voting system, which a large tranche of LibDems would call into question - maybe not right away, but the next time Labour falls short. LibDem MPs tend to stick around (barring some existential event like coalition).
On Hunt, he's irrelevant post-election. There's a fair chance he'll stand down anyway, but even if he doesn't and gets back in, he simply doesn't have a role in the Conservatives in opposition and will be swiftly be forgotten.
In terms of Lib Dems sticking around, whilst they have had some MPs with a good personal vote, I just don't think their longevity is supported by the stats.
Not my type (in the most obvious way imaginable), but clearly the man has (or more likely had) something about him. Charisma, if you like.
Shame he never found much useful to do with it.
Sometimes loud, boorish, entitled arrogance can be mislabeled as "charisma".
Boris did charm any number of women into bed. Call it charisma because it wasn't his svelte figure.
And whilst that charm works the first time, it doesn't work the hundredth time, especially as a response to "where the f🤬🤬🤬 were you last night?" To jump metaphors, once you have see the flags stuffed up the sleeve, the trick isn't magic any more.
2019 Boris bursting back on the scene would shake things up fascinatingly. 2024 Boris wouldn't.
Not to get all PB predictors of Putin’s imminent demise about it, but Johnson was definitely looking etiolated in his latest appearance. It may be just an ill advised attempt to get svelte for future sexual conquest but the vigorous lardiness was part of the Boris schtick. Imagine a skinny Trump and how quickly he’d move into loser territory.
1. Labour's lead will drop to single figures by spring, as the Budget does its work and the search for reasons to dislike Starmer intensifies. 2. But it will then stabilise and Labour will win a comfortable overall majority, ca. 100. 3. LibDems will pick up quite a few Southern seats but otherwise make little progress. 4. Greens will end up with the same single seat. 5. Biden will win, more comfortably than most expect.
That would make the 'Labour majority' bet a screaming, trading lay...
"quite a few Southern seats" would suit the LibDems very nicely.
If they are honest it would suit *Labour* very nicely as well...
Strategically, you can argue it both ways.
If the Tories are only just short, it would certainly help Labour to make sure the Tories properly lose. Plus, history suggests that the bigger the loss, the greater the internal ructions that follow, the thinner the talent pool there is for the clawback, and the longer the opposing party will be out of power.
The LibDems can't use those southern seats to challenge Labour's majority and hence a dramatic Tory defeat could be in Labour's interests - as well as removing talented moderates like Hunt from the field.
On the other hand, we know that taking the long view it suits Labour to present British politics as a cosy two-party carve up, and to cling to the status quo voting system, which a large tranche of LibDems would call into question - maybe not right away, but the next time Labour falls short. LibDem MPs tend to stick around (barring some existential event like coalition).
On Hunt, he's irrelevant post-election. There's a fair chance he'll stand down anyway, but even if he doesn't and gets back in, he simply doesn't have a role in the Conservatives in opposition and will be swiftly be forgotten.
In terms of Lib Dems sticking around, whilst they have had some MPs with a good personal vote, I just don't think their longevity is supported by the stats.
Hunt is just an example.
Having broken through to a decent-sized parliamentary party under Ashdown in 1997, the LibDems broadly held that position through to 2014. Without the coalition they'd possibly be there, still.
The other factor I didn't mention in my OP is that a large group of LibDem MPs alongside a large group of Tories would mean Labour's legislation facing scrutiny, challenge and opposition from both a Daily Mail and Guardian perpective at the same time, as well as possibly from a decent remaining bunch of Scotsman readers. All my experience of Labour politicians is that they only ever see any value in opposition scrutiny and challenge when it's them that are doing it. And of course they;'d risk rebellions from both wings.
Belated New Year greetings to all (Hawaii reached 2024 about 40 minutes ago so that just leaves places like Baker Island still in 2023).
As those who've got the scars from following my racing selections can painfully attest, I struggle with what's going to happen this afternoon let alone weeks and months ahead.
2024 will no doubt have its share of surprises - most years do. In terms of the obvious, the problem Sunak has is trying to argue why anyone should vote Conservative based on the Party's record leading the Government since 2010. Starmer has the huge advantage of not having a record to defend and while, as some may argue, he lacks the charisma of Blair that may be no bad thing.
Assuming there's no GE on May 2nd, the locals won't be pleasant for the Conservatives and Sadiq Khan, will likely win his re-election for another term of irrelevance at City Hall.
The truth remains irrespective of what happens this year, many people just want to give the Conservative Party a kick in the majorities - now, some on here will argue that's irrational but that kind of pent up anger often is and once the kicking has happened, the Conservatives can start again but they can't avoid the kicking so the question is sooner or later?
I find America very hard to read - the economic picture looks good for Biden but I imagine it's the same old story of growth funded by borrowing which will come back to bite someone on the behind - it always does. It astonishes me how so many still sign up to this rather than seeking to manage the public finances properly. Biden may make the occasional gaffe but he remains the shrewdest politician in the room. I suspect he will run rings round Trump in the debates and eke out a second term (if we like pattern matching which I don't, think 1956 and Eisenhower's second win over Adlai Stevenson.
Sport is another mystery - I imagine Euro 2024 will be the usual mix of heady euphoria through the group stage and crushing disappointment in the quarter or semi finals. Cheltenham looks set for another round of Irish domination especially in the novice events while CITY OF TROY could be the "real deal" on the flat - we say this every year usually about a Ballydoyle colt.
On a personal note, I'm due to retire this year after being in continuous employment for 40 years. What retired life will be like I don't know - more time to comment on here, more time to do something useful. I'm told everything takes twice as long when you're retired so we'll see.
1. Labour's lead will drop to single figures by spring, as the Budget does its work and the search for reasons to dislike Starmer intensifies. 2. But it will then stabilise and Labour will win a comfortable overall majority, ca. 100. 3. LibDems will pick up quite a few Southern seats but otherwise make little progress. 4. Greens will end up with the same single seat. 5. Biden will win, more comfortably than most expect.
The concern of course isn't whether Biden will beat Trump. Its what Trump and his insurrectionists do afterwards...
No, I think the concern is whether or not Biden beats Trump.
There will certainly be incidents if Biden wins, and one or two may even be nasty, but not ones that shake the foundations of the republic. Whereas Trump winning would be genuinely dangerous.
Trump losing he'll just continue his grifting.
Trump winning the best case I see is his bone idleness may outweigh his need for vengeance which may prevent him from being that mad other than making life v miserable for those he thinks betrayed him, rather than the entire country.
I know this is a case of Godwin's Law, but Hitler was bone idle.
I hope you're right, but my fear is that the Vivek Ramaswamys and Kari Lakes of this world will compete for favour by feeding Trump's delusions, satisfying his vengefulness, and offering him radical solutions. The hard conservative but ultimately sane adults in the room, like Mike Pence, Bill Barr, and Steve Mnuchin, won't get a look in this time.
Sunak's new year message includes the statement: "We're going further to grow our economy by reducing debt,....." -How can an intelligent fellow say that when the UK is running a deficit?
Belated New Year greetings to all (Hawaii reached 2024 about 40 minutes ago so that just leaves places like Baker Island still in 2023).
As those who've got the scars from following my racing selections can painfully attest, I struggle with what's going to happen this afternoon let alone weeks and months ahead.
2024 will no doubt have its share of surprises - most years do. In terms of the obvious, the problem Sunak has is trying to argue why anyone should vote Conservative based on the Party's record leading the Government since 2010. Starmer has the huge advantage of not having a record to defend and while, as some may argue, he lacks the charisma of Blair that may be no bad thing.
Assuming there's no GE on May 2nd, the locals won't be pleasant for the Conservatives and Sadiq Khan, will likely win his re-election for another term of irrelevance at City Hall.
The truth remains irrespective of what happens this year, many people just want to give the Conservative Party a kick in the majorities - now, some on here will argue that's irrational but that kind of pent up anger often is and once the kicking has happened, the Conservatives can start again but they can't avoid the kicking so the question is sooner or later?
I find America very hard to read - the economic picture looks good for Biden but I imagine it's the same old story of growth funded by borrowing which will come back to bite someone on the behind - it always does. It astonishes me how so many still sign up to this rather than seeking to manage the public finances properly. Biden may make the occasional gaffe but he remains the shrewdest politician in the room. I suspect he will run rings round Trump in the debates and eke out a second term (if we like pattern matching which I don't, think 1956 and Eisenhower's second win over Adlai Stevenson.
Sport is another mystery - I imagine Euro 2024 will be the usual mix of heady euphoria through the group stage and crushing disappointment in the quarter or semi finals. Cheltenham looks set for another round of Irish domination especially in the novice events while CITY OF TROY could be the "real deal" on the flat - we say this every year usually about a Ballydoyle colt.
On a personal note, I'm due to retire this year after being in continuous employment for 40 years. What retired life will be like I don't know - more time to comment on here, more time to do something useful. I'm told everything takes twice as long when you're retired so we'll see.
I wish you well in your retirement
I retired in 2009 and celebrated by going on an expedition ship to Antarctica, South Georgia, and the Falklands which added to our many travels since our eldest son emigrated to New Zealand in 2003, and then moved to Vancouver in 2015 when he married a Canadian
My wife and I have travelled the world and been to so many places we created a wealth of fantastic memories and now, when I am certainly not going to ever fly again and am awaiting a pacemaker, we have no regrets and are simply contented with our life and family, and so grateful for all our blessings
Belated New Year greetings to all (Hawaii reached 2024 about 40 minutes ago so that just leaves places like Baker Island still in 2023).
As those who've got the scars from following my racing selections can painfully attest, I struggle with what's going to happen this afternoon let alone weeks and months ahead.
2024 will no doubt have its share of surprises - most years do. In terms of the obvious, the problem Sunak has is trying to argue why anyone should vote Conservative based on the Party's record leading the Government since 2010. Starmer has the huge advantage of not having a record to defend and while, as some may argue, he lacks the charisma of Blair that may be no bad thing.
Assuming there's no GE on May 2nd, the locals won't be pleasant for the Conservatives and Sadiq Khan, will likely win his re-election for another term of irrelevance at City Hall.
The truth remains irrespective of what happens this year, many people just want to give the Conservative Party a kick in the majorities - now, some on here will argue that's irrational but that kind of pent up anger often is and once the kicking has happened, the Conservatives can start again but they can't avoid the kicking so the question is sooner or later?
I find America very hard to read - the economic picture looks good for Biden but I imagine it's the same old story of growth funded by borrowing which will come back to bite someone on the behind - it always does. It astonishes me how so many still sign up to this rather than seeking to manage the public finances properly. Biden may make the occasional gaffe but he remains the shrewdest politician in the room. I suspect he will run rings round Trump in the debates and eke out a second term (if we like pattern matching which I don't, think 1956 and Eisenhower's second win over Adlai Stevenson.
Sport is another mystery - I imagine Euro 2024 will be the usual mix of heady euphoria through the group stage and crushing disappointment in the quarter or semi finals. Cheltenham looks set for another round of Irish domination especially in the novice events while CITY OF TROY could be the "real deal" on the flat - we say this every year usually about a Ballydoyle colt.
On a personal note, I'm due to retire this year after being in continuous employment for 40 years. What retired life will be like I don't know - more time to comment on here, more time to do something useful. I'm told everything takes twice as long when you're retired so we'll see.
Benchmark how much you can get done in a day, now.
Recognise that by the time you make it into your late 80s, hoping you will, it's likely that reading the paper or catching up with posts on PB will, along with the routine of daily life, fill up your entire day.
Retirement is the first step from the former to the latter. The trick is using the balance of time and attention fruitfully, before it dwindles away.
Been to the best firework display I have ever seen and it wasn't a professional one. Thousands on the promenade at Southwold beach in front of the beach huts. Church bells ringing, most of the huts open and ever 20 metres or so people on the beach letting off expensive fireworks. The combined effort of dozens of parallel displays was amazing and when fireworks hit the sea they exploded spectacularly.
Nearly missed it as I had a very, very boozy and long lunch in Walberswick.
At the Millennium, a bunch of twitchers were hoping to start their latest year list with a rare Ivory Gull that had been hanging around for several weeks.
Come midnight, the fireworks went off, all the gulls rose in panic - and the Ivory Gull was presumed to have headed back to the high Arctic for a quieter life, never to be seen in Southwold again...
(I was the designated driver at a very boozy lunch yesterday. There was a 60-year old port brought out that was judged by all the drinkers to have been quite exceptional...)
Here goes my predictions, which are pretty off the cuff rather than the product of deep thought.
1) Whether technical recession or not, economic performance will flat line at the beginning of the year, but pick up a little second half. Inflation will drop to 2% by the summer, and interest rates will come down a little. 3.5% by year end.
2) The UK General Election will be late November/early December. This is the reverse of my betting position, which is for a May Election. If polls start improving then Sunak will hold out for further movement. If they are static or declining further he won't go early, though won't stifle Election talk.
3) The SNP will do badly with 15-25 seats, Lib Dems will be 25-35 seats. Greens will gain vote share but lose their seat, Reform will get no seats and fail to keep their deposit in more than a handful. The Tories will be 175 +/- 50 seats. This puts Lab on 400 +/- 50 seats. I have done these as ranges, but if forced to be more specific would go for the midpoint of each.
4) Putin will win the election in Russia, Modi in India both consolidating their autocracies, Biden-Trump could go either way, but I think Biden will edge it.
5) The Ukraine war will continue as stalemate, with the Ukranians holding on in defence and making it costly for Russia. Ukranian begging will become more desperate for weapons, but financial support will be forthcoming from Europe. Gaza will be a running sore for Israel, and the war likely to expand into West Bank and Southern Lebanon. China will become more bellicose towards Taiwan, but won't invade.
6) Man City will win the League and Leicester will be promoted with a record points total from the Championship. The summer Olympics will be fun, and good public relations for Macron but no obvious successor.
For those of the "glass half empty" persuasion, the nightmare after Christmas!
Trump gets the nom and the EC. Retribution for 2020 is swift, vengeful and violent. The US becomes an autocracy.
China subsumes Taiwan on February 1st 2025.
The Conservatives (not necessarily led by Sunak) sneak a 20 seat green shoots win on a low vote share with 50 plus seats with majorities of less than a thousand in an ultra low turnout New Year 2025 election. After a successful pre-election Christmas Eve 100 seat flight to Rwanda the policy is quietly shelved. The boats keep coming, but a crackdown on legal migration means net migration figures reduce to less than 100,000. Staff shortages mean the NHS backlog is struggling to improve. Enough are dying whilst on the list to allow the figures to appear to be better than they otherwise might look. The NHS is sold to Cedars Sinai Healthcare for a nominal £10. Several Cabinet Ministers' wives are made Executive Directors. Richard Burgon becomes LOTO and as a result the Conservative poll lead extends to plus 20. Reform beat Labour into fourth place in the 2025 locals.
Ukraine grinds on until Trump throws them to the dogs on January 21st 2025. The USA leaves NATO.
Palestinians are cleared from the river to the sea. Netanyahu remains PM. Lebanon becomes the new Gaza. The world looks on and does nothing. Jared Kushner is appointed Secretary of State.
Villa win the 2023/24 Premiership title.
That all looks OK and reasonable until you realise that Arsenal are going to mess up again but this time with Villa? Steady on.
Belated New Year greetings to all (Hawaii reached 2024 about 40 minutes ago so that just leaves places like Baker Island still in 2023).
As those who've got the scars from following my racing selections can painfully attest, I struggle with what's going to happen this afternoon let alone weeks and months ahead.
2024 will no doubt have its share of surprises - most years do. In terms of the obvious, the problem Sunak has is trying to argue why anyone should vote Conservative based on the Party's record leading the Government since 2010. Starmer has the huge advantage of not having a record to defend and while, as some may argue, he lacks the charisma of Blair that may be no bad thing.
Assuming there's no GE on May 2nd, the locals won't be pleasant for the Conservatives and Sadiq Khan, will likely win his re-election for another term of irrelevance at City Hall.
The truth remains irrespective of what happens this year, many people just want to give the Conservative Party a kick in the majorities - now, some on here will argue that's irrational but that kind of pent up anger often is and once the kicking has happened, the Conservatives can start again but they can't avoid the kicking so the question is sooner or later?
I find America very hard to read - the economic picture looks good for Biden but I imagine it's the same old story of growth funded by borrowing which will come back to bite someone on the behind - it always does. It astonishes me how so many still sign up to this rather than seeking to manage the public finances properly. Biden may make the occasional gaffe but he remains the shrewdest politician in the room. I suspect he will run rings round Trump in the debates and eke out a second term (if we like pattern matching which I don't, think 1956 and Eisenhower's second win over Adlai Stevenson.
Sport is another mystery - I imagine Euro 2024 will be the usual mix of heady euphoria through the group stage and crushing disappointment in the quarter or semi finals. Cheltenham looks set for another round of Irish domination especially in the novice events while CITY OF TROY could be the "real deal" on the flat - we say this every year usually about a Ballydoyle colt.
On a personal note, I'm due to retire this year after being in continuous employment for 40 years. What retired life will be like I don't know - more time to comment on here, more time to do something useful. I'm told everything takes twice as long when you're retired so we'll see.
Euros are possible; we probably have the best team which ought to count for something. For Cheltenham, so far our hurdlers and novice hurdlers look better than the Irish but who knows what Willie has to unleash between now and the DRF. Then there's the Olympics if we can dry out the tunnel taking our athletes to Paris.
In case anyone hasn't watched it yet Dune comes off Amazon Prime this week and it won't be available in 4k on Netflix, it's one of the great sci-fi movies of this era.
March 1st for Part 2. Yay!
The worlds of Dune were so spectacularly created, it almost felt like a travelogue to new distant lands.
1. Labour's lead will drop to single figures by spring, as the Budget does its work and the search for reasons to dislike Starmer intensifies. 2. But it will then stabilise and Labour will win a comfortable overall majority, ca. 100. 3. LibDems will pick up quite a few Southern seats but otherwise make little progress. 4. Greens will end up with the same single seat. 5. Biden will win, more comfortably than most expect.
That would make the 'Labour majority' bet a screaming, trading lay...
"quite a few Southern seats" would suit the LibDems very nicely.
If they are honest it would suit *Labour* very nicely as well...
Strategically, you can argue it both ways.
If the Tories are only just short, it would certainly help Labour to make sure the Tories properly lose. Plus, history suggests that the bigger the loss, the greater the internal ructions that follow, the thinner the talent pool there is for the clawback, and the longer the opposing party will be out of power.
The LibDems can't use those southern seats to challenge Labour's majority and hence a dramatic Tory defeat could be in Labour's interests - as well as removing talented moderates like Hunt from the field.
On the other hand, we know that taking the long view it suits Labour to present British politics as a cosy two-party carve up, and to cling to the status quo voting system, which a large tranche of LibDems would call into question - maybe not right away, but the next time Labour falls short. LibDem MPs tend to stick around (barring some existential event like coalition).
On Hunt, he's irrelevant post-election. There's a fair chance he'll stand down anyway, but even if he doesn't and gets back in, he simply doesn't have a role in the Conservatives in opposition and will be swiftly be forgotten.
In terms of Lib Dems sticking around, whilst they have had some MPs with a good personal vote, I just don't think their longevity is supported by the stats.
Hunt is just an example.
Having broken through to a decent-sized parliamentary party under Ashdown in 1997, the LibDems broadly held that position through to 2014. Without the coalition they'd possibly be there, still.
The other factor I didn't mention in my OP is that a large group of LibDem MPs alongside a large group of Tories would mean Labour's legislation facing scrutiny, challenge and opposition from both a Daily Mail and Guardian perpective at the same time, as well as possibly from a decent remaining bunch of Scotsman readers. All my experience of Labour politicians is that they only ever see any value in opposition scrutiny and challenge when it's them that are doing it. And of course they;'d risk rebellions from both wings.
In terms of post-1997, 2001 and 2005 weren't high turnover elections in terms of MPs for any party. But, even then, the Lib Dems lost two seats in 2001 and four in 2005. They lost nine in 2010, which was a higher turnover election. That's a pretty significant attrition rate for a small party. They also lost four in both 2017 and again in 2019 (ignoring defectors who lost) both times from a tiny base.
I'm not saying a Conservative would go into an election in 2029(ish) against a new Lib Dem MP with a majority of a few hundred with a wild degree of confidence. Even if the Lib Dem isn't a Lamb or Farron, who builds a massive majority second time around (and one or two probably will be), they may well be a bit harder to dislodge than the raw numbers suggest. But the idea that, outside a coalition, most Lib Dem seats are fortresses, is far-fetched.
I’ve enjoyed a blissful 2 months away, and indeed 2 months away from the News. It has been a wonderful time of renewal.
I hope peeps are well. I expect I won’t spend a lot of time on here until the election, especially if it continues to be filled with Leon’s imho somewhat sad quasi-facebook travelogues.
How’s your flask ?
And there’s the sort-of reason why I don’t reside on here.
The flask is good. Right next to me and currently filled with Lavazza coffee because I’m staying at a friend’s.
But please leave out the snide male posturing stuff. You’re better than that, I hope.
You all. Keep it softer and kinder on here you might even see more of us younger females posting on here. Particularly important in the run up to the election when newcomers should be made to feel welcome. It’s a big year for political betting.
You could do so much better. Than Lavazza I mean.
Bird & Wild. Organic, shade-grown coffee. Available from the RSPB on-line shop.
I'm enjoying a cup right now.
We have Lavazza at work. Bean to cup machines. It's free, so I can't complain.
1. Labour's lead will drop to single figures by spring, as the Budget does its work and the search for reasons to dislike Starmer intensifies. 2. But it will then stabilise and Labour will win a comfortable overall majority, ca. 100. 3. LibDems will pick up quite a few Southern seats but otherwise make little progress. 4. Greens will end up with the same single seat. 5. Biden will win, more comfortably than most expect.
The concern of course isn't whether Biden will beat Trump. Its what Trump and his insurrectionists do afterwards...
No, I think the concern is whether or not Biden beats Trump.
There will certainly be incidents if Biden wins, and one or two may even be nasty, but not ones that shake the foundations of the republic. Whereas Trump winning would be genuinely dangerous.
Trump losing he'll just continue his grifting.
Trump winning the best case I see is his bone idleness may outweigh his need for vengeance which may prevent him from being that mad other than making life v miserable for those he thinks betrayed him, rather than the entire country.
I know this is a case of Godwin's Law, but Hitler was bone idle.
I hope you're right, but my fear is that the Vivek Ramaswamys and Kari Lakes of this world will compete for favour by feeding Trump's delusions, satisfying his vengefulness, and offering him radical solutions. The hard conservative but ultimately sane adults in the room, like Mike Pence, Bill Barr, and Steve Mnuchin, won't get a look in this time.
The fuhrer might be bone idle, but his people know what he wants in general terms, so they work to implement his will.
On a personal note, I'm due to retire this year after being in continuous employment for 40 years. What retired life will be like I don't know - more time to comment on here, more time to do something useful. I'm told everything takes twice as long when you're retired so we'll see.
I'm retiring too in 2024 - at 74 it makes sense to relax and enjoy life. But doing more politics is going to be part of that.
I take the point below about Brghton voters quite fancying a leftist green outrider when a big Labour majority looks likly. The same potentially arises in Islington North if Corbyn stands, but Brighton is perhaps more spiritedly non-conformist and rsistant to nationl swings.
1. Labour's lead will drop to single figures by spring, as the Budget does its work and the search for reasons to dislike Starmer intensifies. 2. But it will then stabilise and Labour will win a comfortable overall majority, ca. 100. 3. LibDems will pick up quite a few Southern seats but otherwise make little progress. 4. Greens will end up with the same single seat. 5. Biden will win, more comfortably than most expect.
IMHO (1) is right and (2) over optimistic. From the budget onwards there will be a relentless programme of boosterism and damage limitation, massive attacks on the wicked Marxist threat, free owls and promises of free emus, with also the summer hols, Euros, Olympics getting the mood ready for an election just after the summer with Labour only a bit ahead. Result: NOM.
Big risk for Labour is if by the election, interest rates have turned downwards. Which is why Sunak will go long.
In case anyone hasn't watched it yet Dune comes off Amazon Prime this week and it won't be available in 4k on Netflix, it's one of the great sci-fi movies of this era.
I saw it in the Cinema, and was hugely impressed. I'm definitely going to Part 2.
1. Labour's lead will drop to single figures by spring, as the Budget does its work and the search for reasons to dislike Starmer intensifies. 2. But it will then stabilise and Labour will win a comfortable overall majority, ca. 100. 3. LibDems will pick up quite a few Southern seats but otherwise make little progress. 4. Greens will end up with the same single seat. 5. Biden will win, more comfortably than most expect.
That would make the 'Labour majority' bet a screaming, trading lay...
"quite a few Southern seats" would suit the LibDems very nicely.
If they are honest it would suit *Labour* very nicely as well...
Strategically, you can argue it both ways.
If the Tories are only just short, it would certainly help Labour to make sure the Tories properly lose. Plus, history suggests that the bigger the loss, the greater the internal ructions that follow, the thinner the talent pool there is for the clawback, and the longer the opposing party will be out of power.
The LibDems can't use those southern seats to challenge Labour's majority and hence a dramatic Tory defeat could be in Labour's interests - as well as removing talented moderates like Hunt from the field.
On the other hand, we know that taking the long view it suits Labour to present British politics as a cosy two-party carve up, and to cling to the status quo voting system, which a large tranche of LibDems would call into question - maybe not right away, but the next time Labour falls short. LibDem MPs tend to stick around (barring some existential event like coalition).
On Hunt, he's irrelevant post-election. There's a fair chance he'll stand down anyway, but even if he doesn't and gets back in, he simply doesn't have a role in the Conservatives in opposition and will be swiftly be forgotten.
In terms of Lib Dems sticking around, whilst they have had some MPs with a good personal vote, I just don't think their longevity is supported by the stats.
Not sure I agree. It's noticeable how the LD vote falls when an MP retires or stands down. The "class of 97" included the likes of Paul Burstow and Tom Brake who I knew personally and had been candidates for the two Sutton seats in 1992 as well as being Sutton Borough Councillors.
Both kept the Conservatives at bay until the rout of 2015 when Burstow lost to Paul Scully and Brake survived. Scully had some issues with the LDs having been Opposition leader on Sutton Council until losing his seat in 2010. The current Sutton & Cheam numbers are akin to those of 1992 and with some tactical voting, the seat could return to the LDs at the next election.
Sunak's new year message includes the statement: "We're going further to grow our economy by reducing debt,....." -How can an intelligent fellow say that when the UK is running a deficit?
Because like many/most he probably struggles with the distinction between deficit and debt.
It’s also an odd statement to claim you’ll grow the economy by reducing debt. Reducing debt means fiscal tightening, which means tax rises or spending cuts or both, neither of which is conducive to growth.
On a personal note, I'm due to retire this year after being in continuous employment for 40 years. What retired life will be like I don't know - more time to comment on here, more time to do something useful. I'm told everything takes twice as long when you're retired so we'll see.
I'm retiring too in 2024 - at 74 it makes sense to relax and enjoy life. But doing more politics is going to be part of that.
I take the point below about Brghton voters quite fancying a leftist green outrider when a big Labour majority looks likly. The same potentially arises in Islington North if Corbyn stands, but Brighton is perhaps more spiritedly non-conformist and rsistant to nationl swings.
1. Labour's lead will drop to single figures by spring, as the Budget does its work and the search for reasons to dislike Starmer intensifies. 2. But it will then stabilise and Labour will win a comfortable overall majority, ca. 100. 3. LibDems will pick up quite a few Southern seats but otherwise make little progress. 4. Greens will end up with the same single seat. 5. Biden will win, more comfortably than most expect.
That would make the 'Labour majority' bet a screaming, trading lay...
"quite a few Southern seats" would suit the LibDems very nicely.
If they are honest it would suit *Labour* very nicely as well...
Strategically, you can argue it both ways.
If the Tories are only just short, it would certainly help Labour to make sure the Tories properly lose. Plus, history suggests that the bigger the loss, the greater the internal ructions that follow, the thinner the talent pool there is for the clawback, and the longer the opposing party will be out of power.
The LibDems can't use those southern seats to challenge Labour's majority and hence a dramatic Tory defeat could be in Labour's interests - as well as removing talented moderates like Hunt from the field.
On the other hand, we know that taking the long view it suits Labour to present British politics as a cosy two-party carve up, and to cling to the status quo voting system, which a large tranche of LibDems would call into question - maybe not right away, but the next time Labour falls short. LibDem MPs tend to stick around (barring some existential event like coalition).
On Hunt, he's irrelevant post-election. There's a fair chance he'll stand down anyway, but even if he doesn't and gets back in, he simply doesn't have a role in the Conservatives in opposition and will be swiftly be forgotten.
In terms of Lib Dems sticking around, whilst they have had some MPs with a good personal vote, I just don't think their longevity is supported by the stats.
Hunt is just an example.
Having broken through to a decent-sized parliamentary party under Ashdown in 1997, the LibDems broadly held that position through to 2014. Without the coalition they'd possibly be there, still.
The other factor I didn't mention in my OP is that a large group of LibDem MPs alongside a large group of Tories would mean Labour's legislation facing scrutiny, challenge and opposition from both a Daily Mail and Guardian perpective at the same time, as well as possibly from a decent remaining bunch of Scotsman readers. All my experience of Labour politicians is that they only ever see any value in opposition scrutiny and challenge when it's them that are doing it. And of course they;'d risk rebellions from both wings.
In terms of post-1997, 2001 and 2005 weren't high turnover elections in terms of MPs for any party. But, even then, the Lib Dems lost two seats in 2001 and four in 2005. They lost nine in 2010, which was a higher turnover election. That's a pretty significant attrition rate for a small party. They also lost four in both 2017 and again in 2019 (ignoring defectors who lost) both times from a tiny base.
I'm not saying a Conservative would go into an election in 2029(ish) against a new Lib Dem MP with a majority of a few hundred with a wild degree of confidence. Even if the Lib Dem isn't a Lamb or Farron, who builds a massive majority second time around (and one or two probably will be), they may well be a bit harder to dislodge than the raw numbers suggest. But the idea that, outside a coalition, most Lib Dem seats are fortresses, is far-fetched.
it depends on the amount of tactical voting this time around and how long it takes to unwind. The LibDems benefitted massively in 1997 and again in 2001 but by 2005 people were becoming used to the labour party in government and the Tories were less toxic so people started voting their usual way again. by 2010 it had all but reversed.
If there's a large amount of tactical voting this time it'll benefit the LibDems most and could take a few elections to unwind. especially if the Tories get more toxic before they realise they need to win over the centre to gain power again
In case anyone hasn't watched it yet Dune comes off Amazon Prime this week and it won't be available in 4k on Netflix, it's one of the great sci-fi movies of this era.
I saw it in the Cinema, and was hugely impressed. I'm definitely going to Part 2.
I loved it - I think a hard novel to film and while I have a huge amount of affection for the Lynch adaptation (daft wee dogs and all) I struggle to imagine it being better realised on the big screen.
Where I think that some of the US predictions fall down is believing in the fundamental decency of human nature. The SCOTUS judges will do the decent thing and stop Trump from running, and/or his voters will turn away from him in disgust.
I don't think that will happen. I think that Trump, as a candidate, will gain Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, which gives 264 seats in the Electoral College. Biden may just eke out a win, but he's just one mid-size State away from defeat.
The Trump phenomenon affirms this view. The Economist says 30% of Americans believe he is appointed by God, including vast numbers of self styled Evangelicals. I am not Evangelical but it makes be grateful for the UK sort - who run foodbanks and Christians Against Poverty etc, and mostly vote LD and think Jesus was basically a good chap.
There are true believers in Trump, and others who can rationalise their reasons for supporting him, but which basically come down to "he may be a son of a bitch, but at least he's our son of a bitch." Between them, these groups make up almost 50% of US voters.
The US is probably the most polarised of all Western countries, but the same effects are also being seen elsewhere. For tens of millions of Americans, the Dream isn’t working, and politicians saying they’ve never had it so good only makes things worse.
I’ll stand by my central prediction for 2024, that incumbency is going to be a massive disadvantage for all Western politicians, simply because most people think things are getting worse no matter what the official statistics tell them.
1. Labour's lead will drop to single figures by spring, as the Budget does its work and the search for reasons to dislike Starmer intensifies. 2. But it will then stabilise and Labour will win a comfortable overall majority, ca. 100. 3. LibDems will pick up quite a few Southern seats but otherwise make little progress. 4. Greens will end up with the same single seat. 5. Biden will win, more comfortably than most expect.
That would make the 'Labour majority' bet a screaming, trading lay...
"quite a few Southern seats" would suit the LibDems very nicely.
If they are honest it would suit *Labour* very nicely as well...
Strategically, you can argue it both ways.
If the Tories are only just short, it would certainly help Labour to make sure the Tories properly lose. Plus, history suggests that the bigger the loss, the greater the internal ructions that follow, the thinner the talent pool there is for the clawback, and the longer the opposing party will be out of power.
The LibDems can't use those southern seats to challenge Labour's majority and hence a dramatic Tory defeat could be in Labour's interests - as well as removing talented moderates like Hunt from the field.
On the other hand, we know that taking the long view it suits Labour to present British politics as a cosy two-party carve up, and to cling to the status quo voting system, which a large tranche of LibDems would call into question - maybe not right away, but the next time Labour falls short. LibDem MPs tend to stick around (barring some existential event like coalition).
On Hunt, he's irrelevant post-election. There's a fair chance he'll stand down anyway, but even if he doesn't and gets back in, he simply doesn't have a role in the Conservatives in opposition and will be swiftly be forgotten.
In terms of Lib Dems sticking around, whilst they have had some MPs with a good personal vote, I just don't think their longevity is supported by the stats.
Not sure I agree. It's noticeable how the LD vote falls when an MP retires or stands down. The "class of 97" included the likes of Paul Burstow and Tom Brake who I knew personally and had been candidates for the two Sutton seats in 1992 as well as being Sutton Borough Councillors.
Both kept the Conservatives at bay until the rout of 2015 when Burstow lost to Paul Scully and Brake survived. Scully had some issues with the LDs having been Opposition leader on Sutton Council until losing his seat in 2010. The current Sutton & Cheam numbers are akin to those of 1992 and with some tactical voting, the seat could return to the LDs at the next election.
Bobby Dean is standing in Tom Brake’s old seat. It should be fairly easy to pick up despite not being demographically classic Lib Dem territory. Bobby would be an interesting MP. Unusually for a LD from a properly working class background, very much on the left wing of the party, and a very energetic campaigner.
- A significant natural disaster, the biggest since Covid, will dominate international news at some point, pushing Gaza, Trump and Ukraine off the front pages.
Part 2: I expect Colorado and Maine to be joined this month by other states moving to exclude him from the ballot. These will create a need for the issue to be urgently reviewed by the Supreme Court. Controversially perhaps, I do not expect Trump to win on this issue. Two of the right-wing Supreme Court justices have already given judgments in their prior careers that have supported the rights of the individual states to decide how to best protect their ballots. I suspect they will go along with the similar notion - which will mean they will not interfere to put Trump back on the ballot. To do otherwise is going to require some considerable and obvious contortions.
I also expect Trump to fail in a case appealing the outcome in the senior court in Washington DC finding that Trump has no absolute Presidential immunity. Anything else would leave the US Constitution open to utter abuse by a future President, be that Trump or A N Other. Indeed, in the most extreme outcome, Biden could take Trump out and shoot him - and then claim that same immunity. Once Trump has no immunity, his actions on and in the run up to January 6th and the storming of Congress to prevent the certification of the 2000 election leave him very exposed. His co-conspirators have already started taking plea deals. Those deals require them to nail Trump.
He is an old man going to jail. Rightly so. You don't get to try to overthrow an election of the US people, shrug your shoulders and go "Oh well....".
2024 will be a cascading series of disasters for Trump, from which he is unable to escape. They will culminate with him being put in jail for many years. The Republican Party is just going to have to resolve the issue of Donald Trump as best they can. But he will not be their candidate.
It's possible - but he's not going to jail this side of the election. No trial is going to be done soon enough to allow for the three to four months any sentencing process will take.
Which would make things interesting, even if the GOP were to boot him as a candidate.
I know nothing but if he was convicted, would the judge really let him wander around freely pending sentencing? He has his own private jet and numerous friends in foreign governments and US border patrol, I think he'd be an obvious flight risk?
Yes but. In 2024 we are going to discover, 1930s style, to what extent individual and communal intimidation are factors in decision making when a state as great as the USA faces creeping fascist style authoritarian threats.
What exactly prevents Trump and Trumpism acting like Putin is the question. 2024 is a key year for this subject. Among the things we know is that Trump and Trumpists won't accept losing the nomination, and won't accept any result they don't like. They already possess the true fascist mentality.
To their credit I don't think there's been a single case where a judge seems to have been cowed by Trump. The documents case got a Trump-appointed judge who seems to be putting her thumb on the scale but that's not the same thing.
We also heard a lot about the reaction we were supposed to expect if Trump was arrested but they arrested him and a few people protested, that was about the size of it. What made the transition situation uniquely dangerous was that *Trump was in charge of the administration of the federal government*, but as long as this isn't true he only really seems to be able to wield power over Republicans running for reelection, not over the judiciary or anybody else.
I'm going to be quite contrarian on Trump. He will NOT be the Republican candidate in 2024.
This month is going to be personally traumatic for him. He is facing two judgments where he has already lost and the issue is damages to be awarded against him. The New York case has already found his businesses guilty of systemic fraud. The issue is the award to the state. This will be not less than $500m IMHO - and might easily be closer to a billion. Much as Trump will rail it is "the system out to get him", the message will start to sink in, the glitter rub off - he is a conman whose claims to be some great commercial mind will start to fall apart. This fall from grace argument is one the media loves to run with.(And there could still be more criminal charges in the fallout of this judgment.)
Trump will not be free to do business in New York. The judgment will be excoriating on his lack of credibility in his testimony and the sheer nastiness of the way he conducted himself. Trump will not remotely have the money to meet the judgment (and potential mega-donors will back off bankrolling him because the narrative against him has turned so negative). He will lodge appeals, but they will swiftly come to nothing. The fire sale of his assets will then start. We will see whether Mar-a-Lago is really worth the billion or billion and half Trump claims.
As well as his business court case, he is also going to see what the defamation judgment is going to cost him against E. Jean Carroll. It won't be the $148m Rudi Giuliani was hit with, but it will likely be tens of millions at the time the New York case has taken funds away. It will also remind the voters what a shit he is. Especially women voters.
Whilst some voters will stick with him, and despite these being civil cases and not a criminal, it will cause a material - 5%+ of his support - to back away and not return.
There are two ways Trump could react. He could rant and scream and in the process, look really quite deranged. Or he could be uncharacteristically silent.
However, these are just the personal life problems impinging on his persona projected to the voters. His bigger issues will be his political ones - staying on the ballot and maintaining his claim to absolute Presidential immunity for his actions relating to overthrow the 2000 election result.
I was fascinated just prior to Christmas to see the BBC referring to the E. Jean Carroll case as an "allegation".
A five fatality insurrection and an attempt at overthrowing the constitution, whilst the Vice President and the Leader of the House are almost lynched? Donald Trump, in BBC News land he's a bit of a tinker isn't he?
In case anyone hasn't watched it yet Dune comes off Amazon Prime this week and it won't be available in 4k on Netflix, it's one of the great sci-fi movies of this era.
I saw it in the Cinema, and was hugely impressed. I'm definitely going to Part 2.
I loved it - I think a hard novel to film and while I have a huge amount of affection for the Lynch adaptation (daft wee dogs and all) I struggle to imagine it being better realised on the big screen.
my favourite book. I watched part 1 on the plane to NYC. enjoyed it. looking forward to part 2
1. Labour's lead will drop to single figures by spring, as the Budget does its work and the search for reasons to dislike Starmer intensifies. 2. But it will then stabilise and Labour will win a comfortable overall majority, ca. 100. 3. LibDems will pick up quite a few Southern seats but otherwise make little progress. 4. Greens will end up with the same single seat. 5. Biden will win, more comfortably than most expect.
IMHO (1) is right and (2) over optimistic. From the budget onwards there will be a relentless programme of boosterism and damage limitation, massive attacks on the wicked Marxist threat, free owls and promises of free emus, with also the summer hols, Euros, Olympics getting the mood ready for an election just after the summer with Labour only a bit ahead. Result: NOM.
Big risk for Labour is if by the election, interest rates have turned downwards. Which is why Sunak will go long.
Rishi Sunak's biggest problem will be Rishi Sunak. No doubt he will be coached/programmed by Isaac Levido on what to say, how to say it and when to say it but his days of being "Dishy Rishi" are long past..
Of course, there's an inbuilt assumption in the above Labour has no plan or strategy of its own for the election. I imagine they will have the rebuttal unit in full working order but it comes down to the same old question - why should anyone, after the past 13 years of Conservative-led Government, continue to vote Conservative?
Starmer will continue to reassure the wavering and disaffected Conservative vote base that his Labour Party isn't that different and is basically a non-socialist or social democratic party of the centre or centre-left.
Part 2: I expect Colorado and Maine to be joined this month by other states moving to exclude him from the ballot. These will create a need for the issue to be urgently reviewed by the Supreme Court. Controversially perhaps, I do not expect Trump to win on this issue. Two of the right-wing Supreme Court justices have already given judgments in their prior careers that have supported the rights of the individual states to decide how to best protect their ballots. I suspect they will go along with the similar notion - which will mean they will not interfere to put Trump back on the ballot. To do otherwise is going to require some considerable and obvious contortions.
I also expect Trump to fail in a case appealing the outcome in the senior court in Washington DC finding that Trump has no absolute Presidential immunity. Anything else would leave the US Constitution open to utter abuse by a future President, be that Trump or A N Other. Indeed, in the most extreme outcome, Biden could take Trump out and shoot him - and then claim that same immunity. Once Trump has no immunity, his actions on and in the run up to January 6th and the storming of Congress to prevent the certification of the 2000 election leave him very exposed. His co-conspirators have already started taking plea deals. Those deals require them to nail Trump.
He is an old man going to jail. Rightly so. You don't get to try to overthrow an election of the US people, shrug your shoulders and go "Oh well....".
2024 will be a cascading series of disasters for Trump, from which he is unable to escape. They will culminate with him being put in jail for many years. The Republican Party is just going to have to resolve the issue of Donald Trump as best they can. But he will not be their candidate.
It's possible - but he's not going to jail this side of the election. No trial is going to be done soon enough to allow for the three to four months any sentencing process will take.
Which would make things interesting, even if the GOP were to boot him as a candidate.
Being found guilty of a criminal charge - even if sentence isn't confirmed - will be enough to turn Trump into toast.
And his Georgia trial will happen this year. One which the new Republican candidate cannot pardon him for, as it is not federal.
I genuinely wish I shared your optimism.
I have just come back from the US and the kicking Biden is getting for the Mexican border issue, from even his own side, as well as from mainstream and right wing media is going to be difficult to address, certainly when Trump and Fox weighs in with fantasy solutions.
Sunak's new year message includes the statement: "We're going further to grow our economy by reducing debt,....." -How can an intelligent fellow say that when the UK is running a deficit?
Because politicians assume people don’t understand the difference between debt and deficit, or they think that an obscure statistic such as net debt/GDP ratio falling, allows them to fudge success from failure.
Cameron and Osborne always used to grate when talking about “Paying down the deficit”, as did Brown when talking about “Prudence” when running an increasing deficit in boom times.
What’s really annoying is that these politicians all understand economics and maths; they’re not mis-speaking, they’re deliberately lying.
Where I think that some of the US predictions fall down is believing in the fundamental decency of human nature. The SCOTUS judges will do the decent thing and stop Trump from running, and/or his voters will turn away from him in disgust.
I don't think that will happen. I think that Trump, as a candidate, will gain Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, which gives 264 seats in the Electoral College. Biden may just eke out a win, but he's just one mid-size State away from defeat.
The Trump phenomenon affirms this view. The Economist says 30% of Americans believe he is appointed by God, including vast numbers of self styled Evangelicals. I am not Evangelical but it makes be grateful for the UK sort - who run foodbanks and Christians Against Poverty etc, and mostly vote LD and think Jesus was basically a good chap.
There are true believers in Trump, and others who can rationalise their reasons for supporting him, but which basically come down to "he may be a son of a bitch, but at least he's our son of a bitch." Between them, these groups make up almost 50% of US voters.
The US is probably the most polarised of all Western countries, but the same effects are also being seen elsewhere. For tens of millions of Americans, the Dream isn’t working, and politicians saying they’ve never had it so good only makes things worse.
I’ll stand by my central prediction for 2024, that incumbency is going to be a massive disadvantage for all Western politicians, simply because most people think things are getting worse no matter what the official statistics tell them.
Is it perhaps particularly inflation that people don’t like? Whatever other official statistics say, inflation is the one you notice at the personal level?
The election is absolutely going to be in October or November. All of this talk of May is nonsense. The government will want whatever tax cuts they are pushing through in March to land in people's pay for a significant amount of time, for interest rates to be falling with inflation to be at or below 2% and for petrol prices to have stabilised at 125p - 130p. All of those will happen after the summer, not before. In addition waiting until October or November will mean people will have had a year's worth of real terms pay rises, they will feel much better off in November than they will in May, especially with mortgage rates dropping below 4% already.
Where I think that some of the US predictions fall down is believing in the fundamental decency of human nature. The SCOTUS judges will do the decent thing and stop Trump from running, and/or his voters will turn away from him in disgust.
I don't think that will happen. I think that Trump, as a candidate, will gain Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, which gives 264 seats in the Electoral College. Biden may just eke out a win, but he's just one mid-size State away from defeat.
The Trump phenomenon affirms this view. The Economist says 30% of Americans believe he is appointed by God, including vast numbers of self styled Evangelicals. I am not Evangelical but it makes be grateful for the UK sort - who run foodbanks and Christians Against Poverty etc, and mostly vote LD and think Jesus was basically a good chap.
There are true believers in Trump, and others who can rationalise their reasons for supporting him, but which basically come down to "he may be a son of a bitch, but at least he's our son of a bitch." Between them, these groups make up almost 50% of US voters.
The US is probably the most polarised of all Western countries, but the same effects are also being seen elsewhere. For tens of millions of Americans, the Dream isn’t working, and politicians saying they’ve never had it so good only makes things worse.
I’ll stand by my central prediction for 2024, that incumbency is going to be a massive disadvantage for all Western politicians, simply because most people think things are getting worse no matter what the official statistics tell them.
Is it perhaps particularly inflation that people don’t like? Whatever other official statistics say, inflation is the one you notice at the personal level?
it depends. Inflation (excluding housing costs) people notice especially when they have little spare cash.
Housing costs will have a much bigger impact especially for renters as the rents are not going to go down anytime soon.
Part 2: I expect Colorado and Maine to be joined this month by other states moving to exclude him from the ballot. These will create a need for the issue to be urgently reviewed by the Supreme Court. Controversially perhaps, I do not expect Trump to win on this issue. Two of the right-wing Supreme Court justices have already given judgments in their prior careers that have supported the rights of the individual states to decide how to best protect their ballots. I suspect they will go along with the similar notion - which will mean they will not interfere to put Trump back on the ballot. To do otherwise is going to require some considerable and obvious contortions.
I also expect Trump to fail in a case appealing the outcome in the senior court in Washington DC finding that Trump has no absolute Presidential immunity. Anything else would leave the US Constitution open to utter abuse by a future President, be that Trump or A N Other. Indeed, in the most extreme outcome, Biden could take Trump out and shoot him - and then claim that same immunity. Once Trump has no immunity, his actions on and in the run up to January 6th and the storming of Congress to prevent the certification of the 2000 election leave him very exposed. His co-conspirators have already started taking plea deals. Those deals require them to nail Trump.
He is an old man going to jail. Rightly so. You don't get to try to overthrow an election of the US people, shrug your shoulders and go "Oh well....".
2024 will be a cascading series of disasters for Trump, from which he is unable to escape. They will culminate with him being put in jail for many years. The Republican Party is just going to have to resolve the issue of Donald Trump as best they can. But he will not be their candidate.
A brave and clear prediction. Fair play to you for being bold.
I wish I had your faith that the american legal system can deliver in time to stop a Trump presidency. The other issue is what happens to civil order if he is barred by supreme court from running in a number of states?
Well, they have the advantage that, whereas the rioters last time naively thought that Trump's incitement would give them some kind of protection, the next lot know their likely fate, being able to see the ruined lives and long sentences dished out to some of the first lot.
In other news, if it looks like Labour will stroll it in England, it will likely reduce the pressure on Scots to abandon the SNP.
On the last point: SKS can't appeal in Scotland *and* England at the same time. It will be interesting to see how far the Scottish Labour Party also feel free to ignore party discipline.
He couldn't once but can now. In England he isn't a Tory and in Scotland he is a social democrat but not tarnished by corruption. Over 50% of Scots don't much want independence, and most scots are left of centre. Nowhere else to go.
He isn't a social democrat by Scottish standards - differs strongly with Slab on a number of key areas: Brexit, nuclear deterrent based in Scotland, three child policy, and so on. So still up in the air.
1. Labour's lead will drop to single figures by spring, as the Budget does its work and the search for reasons to dislike Starmer intensifies. 2. But it will then stabilise and Labour will win a comfortable overall majority, ca. 100. 3. LibDems will pick up quite a few Southern seats but otherwise make little progress. 4. Greens will end up with the same single seat. 5. Biden will win, more comfortably than most expect.
That would make the 'Labour majority' bet a screaming, trading lay...
"quite a few Southern seats" would suit the LibDems very nicely.
If they are honest it would suit *Labour* very nicely as well...
Strategically, you can argue it both ways.
If the Tories are only just short, it would certainly help Labour to make sure the Tories properly lose. Plus, history suggests that the bigger the loss, the greater the internal ructions that follow, the thinner the talent pool there is for the clawback, and the longer the opposing party will be out of power.
The LibDems can't use those southern seats to challenge Labour's majority and hence a dramatic Tory defeat could be in Labour's interests - as well as removing talented moderates like Hunt from the field.
On the other hand, we know that taking the long view it suits Labour to present British politics as a cosy two-party carve up, and to cling to the status quo voting system, which a large tranche of LibDems would call into question - maybe not right away, but the next time Labour falls short. LibDem MPs tend to stick around (barring some existential event like coalition).
On Hunt, he's irrelevant post-election. There's a fair chance he'll stand down anyway, but even if he doesn't and gets back in, he simply doesn't have a role in the Conservatives in opposition and will be swiftly be forgotten.
In terms of Lib Dems sticking around, whilst they have had some MPs with a good personal vote, I just don't think their longevity is supported by the stats.
Hunt is just an example.
Having broken through to a decent-sized parliamentary party under Ashdown in 1997, the LibDems broadly held that position through to 2014. Without the coalition they'd possibly be there, still.
The other factor I didn't mention in my OP is that a large group of LibDem MPs alongside a large group of Tories would mean Labour's legislation facing scrutiny, challenge and opposition from both a Daily Mail and Guardian perpective at the same time, as well as possibly from a decent remaining bunch of Scotsman readers. All my experience of Labour politicians is that they only ever see any value in opposition scrutiny and challenge when it's them that are doing it. And of course they;'d risk rebellions from both wings.
Does anyone still read the Scotsman? Maybe the Jack man at the Scottish Office?
Where I think that some of the US predictions fall down is believing in the fundamental decency of human nature. The SCOTUS judges will do the decent thing and stop Trump from running, and/or his voters will turn away from him in disgust.
I don't think that will happen. I think that Trump, as a candidate, will gain Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, which gives 264 seats in the Electoral College. Biden may just eke out a win, but he's just one mid-size State away from defeat.
The Trump phenomenon affirms this view. The Economist says 30% of Americans believe he is appointed by God, including vast numbers of self styled Evangelicals. I am not Evangelical but it makes be grateful for the UK sort - who run foodbanks and Christians Against Poverty etc, and mostly vote LD and think Jesus was basically a good chap.
There are true believers in Trump, and others who can rationalise their reasons for supporting him, but which basically come down to "he may be a son of a bitch, but at least he's our son of a bitch." Between them, these groups make up almost 50% of US voters.
The US is probably the most polarised of all Western countries, but the same effects are also being seen elsewhere. For tens of millions of Americans, the Dream isn’t working, and politicians saying they’ve never had it so good only makes things worse.
I’ll stand by my central prediction for 2024, that incumbency is going to be a massive disadvantage for all Western politicians, simply because most people think things are getting worse no matter what the official statistics tell them.
Is it perhaps particularly inflation that people don’t like? Whatever other official statistics say, inflation is the one you notice at the personal level?
Inflation is definitely a big part of it, but also that the official inflation rate doesn’t represent most people’s experience of inflation.
Big-ticket household spending items such as housing, utility bills, and food, have all been running way above the official inflation rate. Someone whose £250k mortgage just went from a £1,500 a month fix to £3,000 a month, is screwed no matter how much their pay went up.
The election is absolutely going to be in October or November. All of this talk of May is nonsense. The government will want whatever tax cuts they are pushing through in March to land in people's pay for a significant amount of time, for interest rates to be falling with inflation to be at or below 2% and for petrol prices to have stabilised at 125p - 130p. All of those will happen after the summer, not before. In addition waiting until October or November will mean people will have had a year's worth of real terms pay rises, they will feel much better off in November than they will in May, especially with mortgage rates dropping below 4% already.
I think you'll probably be right (November or December) unless the budget falls. The way they're trailing the budget already with hints at big tax cuts could lead to a VoNC if done wrong
1. Labour's lead will drop to single figures by spring, as the Budget does its work and the search for reasons to dislike Starmer intensifies. 2. But it will then stabilise and Labour will win a comfortable overall majority, ca. 100. 3. LibDems will pick up quite a few Southern seats but otherwise make little progress. 4. Greens will end up with the same single seat. 5. Biden will win, more comfortably than most expect.
That would make the 'Labour majority' bet a screaming, trading lay...
"quite a few Southern seats" would suit the LibDems very nicely.
If they are honest it would suit *Labour* very nicely as well...
Strategically, you can argue it both ways.
If the Tories are only just short, it would certainly help Labour to make sure the Tories properly lose. Plus, history suggests that the bigger the loss, the greater the internal ructions that follow, the thinner the talent pool there is for the clawback, and the longer the opposing party will be out of power.
The LibDems can't use those southern seats to challenge Labour's majority and hence a dramatic Tory defeat could be in Labour's interests - as well as removing talented moderates like Hunt from the field.
On the other hand, we know that taking the long view it suits Labour to present British politics as a cosy two-party carve up, and to cling to the status quo voting system, which a large tranche of LibDems would call into question - maybe not right away, but the next time Labour falls short. LibDem MPs tend to stick around (barring some existential event like coalition).
On Hunt, he's irrelevant post-election. There's a fair chance he'll stand down anyway, but even if he doesn't and gets back in, he simply doesn't have a role in the Conservatives in opposition and will be swiftly be forgotten.
In terms of Lib Dems sticking around, whilst they have had some MPs with a good personal vote, I just don't think their longevity is supported by the stats.
Not sure I agree. It's noticeable how the LD vote falls when an MP retires or stands down. The "class of 97" included the likes of Paul Burstow and Tom Brake who I knew personally and had been candidates for the two Sutton seats in 1992 as well as being Sutton Borough Councillors.
Both kept the Conservatives at bay until the rout of 2015 when Burstow lost to Paul Scully and Brake survived. Scully had some issues with the LDs having been Opposition leader on Sutton Council until losing his seat in 2010. The current Sutton & Cheam numbers are akin to those of 1992 and with some tactical voting, the seat could return to the LDs at the next election.
Bobby Dean is standing in Tom Brake’s old seat. It should be fairly easy to pick up despite not being demographically classic Lib Dem territory. Bobby would be an interesting MP. Unusually for a LD from a properly working class background, very much on the left wing of the party, and a very energetic campaigner.
I lived in C&W for a number of years. Yes, it's not a University town or affluent suburb and the LD success was down to two decades of hard graft starting with taking control of the Council in the 80s. That didn't translate into Parliamentary progress until 1992 when Tom achieved a decent swing off the sitting Conservative.
In truth, the Conservatives were moribund locally at that time and we reduced them down to just 3 Councillors in Sutton in 1994. The Conservative majority in C&W was still 10,000 in 1992 and basically the local party campaigned hard for five years but in 1997 the main worry was a rising Labour vote would keep the Conservative in.
The Conservatives lost a third of their vote or 10,000 votes - we got 2,500, Labour got 2,500 and Referendum got 1,300 with the rest staying at home. It was a close run thing as someone once said.
The mystery is how the Conservatives failed to win the seat in 2015 - it was one of the few where the Conservative share fell and the Labour share rose.
Belated New Year greetings to all (Hawaii reached 2024 about 40 minutes ago so that just leaves places like Baker Island still in 2023).
As those who've got the scars from following my racing selections can painfully attest, I struggle with what's going to happen this afternoon let alone weeks and months ahead.
2024 will no doubt have its share of surprises - most years do. In terms of the obvious, the problem Sunak has is trying to argue why anyone should vote Conservative based on the Party's record leading the Government since 2010. Starmer has the huge advantage of not having a record to defend and while, as some may argue, he lacks the charisma of Blair that may be no bad thing.
Assuming there's no GE on May 2nd, the locals won't be pleasant for the Conservatives and Sadiq Khan, will likely win his re-election for another term of irrelevance at City Hall.
The truth remains irrespective of what happens this year, many people just want to give the Conservative Party a kick in the majorities - now, some on here will argue that's irrational but that kind of pent up anger often is and once the kicking has happened, the Conservatives can start again but they can't avoid the kicking so the question is sooner or later?
I find America very hard to read - the economic picture looks good for Biden but I imagine it's the same old story of growth funded by borrowing which will come back to bite someone on the behind - it always does. It astonishes me how so many still sign up to this rather than seeking to manage the public finances properly. Biden may make the occasional gaffe but he remains the shrewdest politician in the room. I suspect he will run rings round Trump in the debates and eke out a second term (if we like pattern matching which I don't, think 1956 and Eisenhower's second win over Adlai Stevenson.
Sport is another mystery - I imagine Euro 2024 will be the usual mix of heady euphoria through the group stage and crushing disappointment in the quarter or semi finals. Cheltenham looks set for another round of Irish domination especially in the novice events while CITY OF TROY could be the "real deal" on the flat - we say this every year usually about a Ballydoyle colt.
On a personal note, I'm due to retire this year after being in continuous employment for 40 years. What retired life will be like I don't know - more time to comment on here, more time to do something useful. I'm told everything takes twice as long when you're retired so we'll see.
Good luck Stodge, I am over 50 years working but still enjoy it so not giving up just yet. Keep up the horse tips. Nice meeting at Cheltenham today, no fancies.
1. Labour's lead will drop to single figures by spring, as the Budget does its work and the search for reasons to dislike Starmer intensifies. 2. But it will then stabilise and Labour will win a comfortable overall majority, ca. 100. 3. LibDems will pick up quite a few Southern seats but otherwise make little progress. 4. Greens will end up with the same single seat. 5. Biden will win, more comfortably than most expect.
IMHO (1) is right and (2) over optimistic. From the budget onwards there will be a relentless programme of boosterism and damage limitation, massive attacks on the wicked Marxist threat, free owls and promises of free emus, with also the summer hols, Euros, Olympics getting the mood ready for an election just after the summer with Labour only a bit ahead. Result: NOM.
Big risk for Labour is if by the election, interest rates have turned downwards. Which is why Sunak will go long.
I suspect for interest rates to have a significant positive effect for the Tories they will need to fall by more than half or 1% point. Around 4% might do the trick.
I still believe you are in with a good shout at a small majority, although I can't see interest rates as your golden bullet, quite the reverse in fact.
Comments
A "health event" that prevents his running is the best escape route for Trump. Also the best way to stay out of jail.
I don't think that will happen. I think that Trump, as a candidate, will gain Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, which gives 264 seats in the Electoral College. Biden may just eke out a win, but he's just one mid-size State away from defeat.
GE in September
Labour will lead government but with fewer than 326 seats
Trump will be POTUS.
Which means betting against the three above should be a modest but tidy accumulator. DYOR.
Washington is going to be under virtual martial law the days around the result imho.
I expect Xi's actions will depend on who wins, and by the amount.
With the Vanguard class already past it's originally planned life and the Dreadnought submarines not expected until the 2030s the next few years will be touch and go for the countries Continuous At Sea Deterrent.
1. Trump will run, be nominee and win the 2024 POTUS race. It will be so close there will be some kind of Supreme Court challenge by Dems and there will be major civil unrest. Lots of examples of GOP poll rigging and so on.
2. Lab lead in UK will narrow significantly once GE campaign formally begins, Starmer will panic, u-turn mid-campaign on a few things, but in the end will secure a working majority but nothing spectacular. Reform will not poll anywhere near 10%.
3. Inflation will fall rapidly next year and the conversation will switch to 'are we in danger of deflation?'
4. UK will be hit by worst summer heatwave on record. Brutal couple of months. Net Zero will be back in favour.
Hope 2024 brings you all good health and good fortune.
Meeks thinks ity'll be a December election!
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/24-7-predictions-b768d94e4078
What exactly prevents Trump and Trumpism acting like Putin is the question. 2024 is a key year for this subject. Among the things we know is that Trump and Trumpists won't accept losing the nomination, and won't accept any result they don't like. They already possess the true fascist mentality.
Lets assume that 2 months of ramping followed by a giveaway budget aren't the success that Number 10 clearly hopes for. So the deadline to call 2nd May passes by with "what election?" as the response from Grant Shapps and Michael Green who are both sent out to do media rounds.
Tories then get an absolute hammering in the locals. Party is restless and unhappy because "wait for
Steiner's counter attackinflation to drop" isn't a convincing raft to cling to. Talking about rafts, the weather brings another huge surge in small boats, with the Rwanda bill stuck in the Lords and Rwanda repeatedly warning that if the measures being talked up by Tory 5 Families are enacted, they are Out.So Rishi is under constant fire from his own side, with little prospect of significant change in fortunes, a Big Bill from the giveaway budget causing further pain in the NHS and public services, and no bazooka left to fire in the autumn.
In summary, May 2024 is October 1978. Or he can cling on hoping for miracles and bring about another long run in opposition.
Not a bold prediction.
Predicting a major natural disaster is bold.
My predictions FWTW:
1. Labour's lead will drop to single figures by spring, as the Budget does its work and the search for reasons to dislike Starmer intensifies.
2. But it will then stabilise and Labour will win a comfortable overall majority, ca. 100.
3. LibDems will pick up quite a few Southern seats but otherwise make little progress.
4. Greens will end up with the same single seat.
5. Biden will win, more comfortably than most expect.
You’ve acknowledged it more than once.
All forgotten when I make a comment that is clearly nothing other than an an affectionate retort to a long term poster as it gives you a chance to posture yourself.
"quite a few Southern seats" would suit the LibDems very nicely.
So there's two good bets in his post.
I wonder when the seat markets will start to go up?
I suspect it'll be close
There will certainly be incidents if Biden wins, and one or two may even be nasty, but not ones that shake the foundations of the republic. Whereas Trump winning would be genuinely dangerous.
If the Tories are only just short, it would certainly help Labour to make sure the Tories properly lose. Plus, history suggests that the bigger the loss, the greater the internal ructions that follow, the thinner the talent pool and other resources there are for the clawback, and the longer the opposing party will be out of power.
The LibDems can't use those southern seats to challenge Labour's majority and hence a dramatic Tory defeat could be in Labour's interests - as well as removing talented moderates like Hunt from the field.
On the other hand, we know that taking the long view it suits Labour to present British politics as a cosy two-party carve up, and to cling to the status quo voting system, which a large tranche of LibDems would call into question - maybe not right away, but the next time Labour falls short. LibDem MPs tend to stick around (barring some existential event like coalition).
And the very last thing Labour would want would be for a large moderate centre/centre-left party to be in competition, possibly alongside the rump of a Tory party that has swung yet further to the right. Even though you could argue that this sort of Scandinavian political set-up would in the long term benefit our country.
So, I'd put Labour narrow favourites. But it could go either way.
*except the current Government. They can fuck right off...
Trump winning the best case I see is his bone idleness may outweigh his need for vengeance which may prevent him from being that mad other than making life v miserable for those he thinks betrayed him, rather than the entire country.
In terms of Lib Dems sticking around, whilst they have had some MPs with a good personal vote, I just don't think their longevity is supported by the stats.
Having broken through to a decent-sized parliamentary party under Ashdown in 1997, the LibDems broadly held that position through to 2014. Without the coalition they'd possibly be there, still.
The other factor I didn't mention in my OP is that a large group of LibDem MPs alongside a large group of Tories would mean Labour's legislation facing scrutiny, challenge and opposition from both a Daily Mail and Guardian perpective at the same time, as well as possibly from a decent remaining bunch of Scotsman readers. All my experience of Labour politicians is that they only ever see any value in opposition scrutiny and challenge when it's them that are doing it. And of course they;'d risk rebellions from both wings.
Belated New Year greetings to all (Hawaii reached 2024 about 40 minutes ago so that just leaves places like Baker Island still in 2023).
As those who've got the scars from following my racing selections can painfully attest, I struggle with what's going to happen this afternoon let alone weeks and months ahead.
2024 will no doubt have its share of surprises - most years do. In terms of the obvious, the problem Sunak has is trying to argue why anyone should vote Conservative based on the Party's record leading the Government since 2010. Starmer has the huge advantage of not having a record to defend and while, as some may argue, he lacks the charisma of Blair that may be no bad thing.
Assuming there's no GE on May 2nd, the locals won't be pleasant for the Conservatives and Sadiq Khan, will likely win his re-election for another term of irrelevance at City Hall.
The truth remains irrespective of what happens this year, many people just want to give the Conservative Party a kick in the majorities - now, some on here will argue that's irrational but that kind of pent up anger often is and once the kicking has happened, the Conservatives can start again but they can't avoid the kicking so the question is sooner or later?
I find America very hard to read - the economic picture looks good for Biden but I imagine it's the same old story of growth funded by borrowing which will come back to bite someone on the behind - it always does. It astonishes me how so many still sign up to this rather than seeking to manage the public finances properly. Biden may make the occasional gaffe but he remains the shrewdest politician in the room. I suspect he will run rings round Trump in the debates and eke out a second term (if we like pattern matching which I don't, think 1956 and Eisenhower's second win over Adlai Stevenson.
Sport is another mystery - I imagine Euro 2024 will be the usual mix of heady euphoria through the group stage and crushing disappointment in the quarter or semi finals. Cheltenham looks set for another round of Irish domination especially in the novice events while CITY OF TROY could be the "real deal" on the flat - we say this every year usually about a Ballydoyle colt.
On a personal note, I'm due to retire this year after being in continuous employment for 40 years. What retired life will be like I don't know - more time to comment on here, more time to do something useful. I'm told everything takes twice as long when you're retired so we'll see.
I hope you're right, but my fear is that the Vivek Ramaswamys and Kari Lakes of this world will compete for favour by feeding Trump's delusions, satisfying his vengefulness, and offering him radical solutions. The hard conservative but ultimately sane adults in the room, like Mike Pence, Bill Barr, and Steve Mnuchin, won't get a look in this time.
I retired in 2009 and celebrated by going on an expedition ship to Antarctica, South Georgia, and the Falklands which added to our many travels since our eldest son emigrated to New Zealand in 2003, and then moved to Vancouver in 2015 when he married a Canadian
My wife and I have travelled the world and been to so many places we created a wealth of fantastic memories and now, when I am certainly not going to ever fly again and am awaiting a pacemaker, we have no regrets and are simply contented with our life and family, and so grateful for all our blessings
Recognise that by the time you make it into your late 80s, hoping you will, it's likely that reading the paper or catching up with posts on PB will, along with the routine of daily life, fill up your entire day.
Retirement is the first step from the former to the latter. The trick is using the balance of time and attention fruitfully, before it dwindles away.
Come midnight, the fireworks went off, all the gulls rose in panic - and the Ivory Gull was presumed to have headed back to the high Arctic for a quieter life, never to be seen in Southwold again...
(I was the designated driver at a very boozy lunch yesterday. There was a 60-year old port brought out that was judged by all the drinkers to have been quite exceptional...)
Enjoy your retirement.
The worlds of Dune were so spectacularly created, it almost felt like a travelogue to new distant lands.
I'm not saying a Conservative would go into an election in 2029(ish) against a new Lib Dem MP with a majority of a few hundred with a wild degree of confidence. Even if the Lib Dem isn't a Lamb or Farron, who builds a massive majority second time around (and one or two probably will be), they may well be a bit harder to dislodge than the raw numbers suggest. But the idea that, outside a coalition, most Lib Dem seats are fortresses, is far-fetched.
I'm enjoying a cup right now.
We have Lavazza at work. Bean to cup machines. It's free, so I can't complain.
I take the point below about Brghton voters quite fancying a leftist green outrider when a big Labour majority looks likly. The same potentially arises in Islington North if Corbyn stands, but Brighton is perhaps more spiritedly non-conformist and rsistant to nationl swings.
Both kept the Conservatives at bay until the rout of 2015 when Burstow lost to Paul Scully and Brake survived. Scully had some issues with the LDs having been Opposition leader on Sutton Council until losing his seat in 2010. The current Sutton & Cheam numbers are akin to those of 1992 and with some tactical voting, the seat could return to the LDs at the next election.
It’s also an odd statement to claim you’ll grow the economy by reducing debt. Reducing debt means fiscal tightening, which means tax rises or spending cuts or both, neither of which is conducive to growth.
If there's a large amount of tactical voting this time it'll benefit the LibDems most and could take a few elections to unwind. especially if the Tories get more toxic before they realise they need to win over the centre to gain power again
I’ll stand by my central prediction for 2024, that incumbency is going to be a massive disadvantage for all Western politicians, simply because most people think things are getting worse no matter what the official statistics tell them.
We also heard a lot about the reaction we were supposed to expect if Trump was arrested but they arrested him and a few people protested, that was about the size of it. What made the transition situation uniquely dangerous was that *Trump was in charge of the administration of the federal government*, but as long as this isn't true he only really seems to be able to wield power over Republicans running for reelection, not over the judiciary or anybody else.
A five fatality insurrection and an attempt at overthrowing the constitution, whilst the Vice President and the Leader of the House are almost lynched? Donald Trump, in BBC News land he's a bit of a tinker isn't he?
Of course, there's an inbuilt assumption in the above Labour has no plan or strategy of its own for the election. I imagine they will have the rebuttal unit in full working order but it comes down to the same old question - why should anyone, after the past 13 years of Conservative-led Government, continue to vote Conservative?
Starmer will continue to reassure the wavering and disaffected Conservative vote base that his Labour Party isn't that different and is basically a non-socialist or social democratic party of the centre or centre-left.
2.3M in Gaza to be reduced to 100k according to one of the Zionist Fascists in Bibi Coalition
I have just come back from the US and the kicking Biden is getting for the Mexican border issue, from even his own side, as well as from mainstream and right wing media is going to be difficult to address, certainly when Trump and Fox weighs in with fantasy solutions.
Cameron and Osborne always used to grate when talking about “Paying down the deficit”, as did Brown when talking about “Prudence” when running an increasing deficit in boom times.
What’s really annoying is that these politicians all understand economics and maths; they’re not mis-speaking, they’re deliberately lying.
So many joggers about today!
Half the town must have resolved to get fit, this year. Presumably the rest are indoors on Duolingo?
Housing costs will have a much bigger impact especially for renters as the rents are not going to go down anytime soon.
Big-ticket household spending items such as housing, utility bills, and food, have all been running way above the official inflation rate. Someone whose £250k mortgage just went from a £1,500 a month fix to £3,000 a month, is screwed no matter how much their pay went up.
In truth, the Conservatives were moribund locally at that time and we reduced them down to just 3 Councillors in Sutton in 1994. The Conservative majority in C&W was still 10,000 in 1992 and basically the local party campaigned hard for five years but in 1997 the main worry was a rising Labour vote would keep the Conservative in.
The Conservatives lost a third of their vote or 10,000 votes - we got 2,500, Labour got 2,500 and Referendum got 1,300 with the rest staying at home. It was a close run thing as someone once said.
The mystery is how the Conservatives failed to win the seat in 2015 - it was one of the few where the Conservative share fell and the Labour share rose.
I still believe you are in with a good shout at a small majority, although I can't see interest rates as your golden bullet, quite the reverse in fact.