Categories
Options
2024 opens with LAB a 75% betting chance of winning the election – politicalbetting.com
2024 opens with LAB a 75% betting chance of winning the election – politicalbetting.com
It’s general election year and the plan on PB is to make the election betting the main story at the start of every week.
1
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
https://twitter.com/AlastairMeeks/status/1741475829488496707
https://twitter.com/12Xpert/status/1741496456815530399
Been to the best firework display I have ever seen and it wasn't a professional one. Thousands on the promenade at Southwold beach in front of the beach huts. Church bells ringing, most of the huts open and ever 20 metres or so people on the beach letting off expensive fireworks. The combined effort of dozens of parallel displays was amazing and when fireworks hit the sea they exploded spectacularly.
Nearly missed it as I had a very, very boozy and long lunch in Walberswick.
Unless there is a decision before Friday, he will have missed the filing deadline for the primaries and there seems little point even attempting to stand a stooge as a spoiler candidate.
And Happy New Year to all PBers, in the hope your bets are suitably green. Especially @Peter_the_Punter ’s bet with me!
Will be the first year where Labour wins a general election for 19 years... Lets hope they live up to people's hopes, wishes and expectations 🙏
*Hint: Of COURSE they will disappoint
Why is the Kerch Bridge still standing almost two years into the war? Why are F16s only just starting to dribble into Ukraine? Why aren't Tauruses and ATACMS blowing Russians to Kingdom Come, or at least back to Russia? Why does Ukraine still not have anything like enough shells?
Most other issues are trivial compared to this, where the security of the free world and the credibility of its alliances are at stake.
Happy New Year. Stud!
The best lounge I’ve personally been in is the BA Concorde lounge at LHR
I’ve no doubt the well traveled folk of PB will offer superior examples
But this is notably better and friendlier than Emirates
May 2024 bring you all wealth, health and happiness.
I’m not joking: it exists. BA took me there this year
However I am sure there must be more impressive VIP lounges. Probably in UAE?
Does it still exist?
I accept these are first world issues, compared to, say, Ukraine
Happy New year to all at PB.
The Tories are screwed. Even tax cuts won't save them, only mitigate the disaster.
Obviously its more important than Sudan. One shouldn’t get hysterical
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/24-7-predictions-b768d94e4078
TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.
Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.
I’ve enjoyed a blissful 2 months away, and indeed 2 months away from the News. It has been a wonderful time of renewal.
I hope peeps are well. I expect I won’t spend a lot of time on here until the election, especially if it continues to be filled with Leon’s imho somewhat sad quasi-facebook travelogues.
The flask is good. Right next to me and currently filled with Lavazza coffee because I’m staying at a friend’s.
But please leave out the snide male posturing stuff. You’re better than that, I hope.
You all. Keep it softer and kinder on here you might even see more of us younger females posting on here. Particularly important in the run up to the election when newcomers should be made to feel welcome. It’s a big year for political betting.
I suggest we all need to make radical choices, from micro (eg energy saving) to macro if we care for the Mother Earth which we are currently raping.
If I’m too left-field and feminine for peeps on here I shall stay away but I nevertheless wish you all as Happy a New Year as possible. I was concerned about the health of a few regulars on here when I last posted 2 months ago. I hope they are okay? xx
For people engaged in politics, I agree with him that the trend toward tactical voting will be very powerful this time; I feel it myself. The type of educated switched-on voters the LibDems need are those most likely to dig out the data and make sensible choices.
What I don't know is whether there'll be the same push toward tactical voting among those not really paying attention? That may depend especially on how effective the local LibDem campaigns are - after the scandalous shambles of 2019, one does wonder. Hopefully the idiots behind that campaign are all sacked, or locked in the wardrobe.
Here are my predictions:
(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)
(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.
(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.
(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.
(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.
(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.
(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.
(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.
(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.
(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.
(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.
(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.
(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.
The sky is bright and clear here, and it doesn’t appear to be windy. I hope that is a sign of things to come!
Could our collective resolution be for civilised discussion this year? Please!
Although Leon must be allowed his travelogues!
I agree that falling inflation will give economies and markets a lift during the early part of the year, but wouldn't underestimate the chance of a serious wobble later in the year due to financial indebtedness and political instability.
As Meeks says, Sunak's problem is inexperience and lack of proven resilience, and the Tories' problem is that their most (internally) favoured replacements are all less experienced still.
Reform is your left field one, that doesn't sit happily with your electoral prediction. If Farage/Tice really gets off the ground, surely the Tories should be near-destroyed? Personally I can't see Farage being bothered to make the effort; the Tory-hatred seems to be coming mostly from Tice and Oakeshott, who don't call the shots. Farage is more likely to threaten but not deliver, perhaps for a deeply cynical peerage? Delivered by Sunak's exit honours list.
WW1 suggests that a longstanding long-front stalemate can collapse suddenly and unexpectedly. Sadly.
Just read Meek's predictions, and they aren't that different from mine, except that he expects a much larger Labour majority.
Ukraine is on their own land , with short supply lines, fighting for their own country.
Russia - like Germany in 1918 - was not.
Shame he never found much useful to do with it.
If the Toriss get 150 seats they would be exceeding my expectations.
After all what can (and will) they offer most voters - more of the same isn’t great. Heck I expect triple lock pensioners will be looking at elderly social care and panicking at the lack of accessibility
A happy new year to you and all my fellow posters
This is the year I have my 80th, my granddaughter is 21, and we have our diamond wedding anniversary in May
I remain very much under the weather as I await my urgent pacemaker operation and hope the consultant finds a time in his busy calendar soon
Indeed I have purchased a smaller car for when I can drive again and so my wife will find it easier to drive as well
This is the year the chaotic and idiotic conservative party are sent deservedly into opposition and Starmer and labour begin a 5 year term with a good working majority and I wish them well
I did read some of the comments at midnight, and it is remarkable how many good wishes from across the divide were expressed and it speaks highly of the quality of posters and the respect the forum has for its administrators that I would gentle suggest, and agree with you, that unnecessary language is not in the spirit of this forum
What a betting fest 2024 looks to be.
One question the 2024 elections here and in the US should definitely answer for us- how much are election results about the brilliance of the winner, and how much are they about the awfulness of the runner up? If you think the first, then the Conservatives might do OKish, because Starmer is meh. If it's the second, it's going to be a terrrrrrrrrr... rrrible night for the Tories.
Happy New Year!
New builds weren't an option as that would have involved fucking over Bahrain (can't do that because, unlike Ukraine, they actually have money) or the Breakaway Province of China (can't do that because China is the next away fixture).
A lot of the hesitancy over weapons now is because they are coming out of reserves and the services involved are taking the balance sheet hit with no replacements in sight. The RAF gave away a shit load of Storm Shadows on the understanding that they would be replaced by Rampage but now the MoD are like "LOL, JK. Maybe later."
That explains the 2019 result (Boris offered an end to the logjam and wasn’t Corbyn).
Equally it means that the Tory issue will be getting their voters out the door and an autumn election is going to make that impossible as the canvassers won’t be interested in doing so - having lost their seats in May.
Hershey is being sued by a Florida woman who says its holiday-themed Reese’s peanut butter candies lack the artistic details shown on the packaging that make them worth buying.
https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1741700801314075051
Robert Peston
@Peston
After the former most powerful government official has asserted that the UK’s nuclear weapons and defence capability is dangerously fragile, the government will surely have to make a statement to parliament. See attached from
@Dominic2306
1) Whether technical recession or not, economic performance will flat line at the beginning of the year, but pick up a little second half. Inflation will drop to 2% by the summer, and interest rates will come down a little. 3.5% by year end.
2) The UK General Election will be late November/early December. This is the reverse of my betting position, which is for a May Election. If polls start improving then Sunak will hold out for further movement. If they are static or declining further he won't go early, though won't stifle Election talk.
3) The SNP will do badly with 15-25 seats, Lib Dems will be 25-35 seats. Greens will gain vote share but lose their seat, Reform will get no seats and fail to keep their deposit in more than a handful. The Tories will be 175 +/- 50 seats. This puts Lab on 400 +/- 50 seats. I have done these as ranges, but if forced to be more specific would go for the midpoint of each.
4) Putin will win the election in Russia, Modi in India both consolidating their autocracies, Biden-Trump could go either way, but I think Biden will edge it.
5) The Ukraine war will continue as stalemate, with the Ukranians holding on in defence and making it costly for Russia. Ukranian begging will become more desperate for weapons, but financial support will be forthcoming from Europe. Gaza will be a running sore for Israel, and the war likely to expand into West Bank and Southern Lebanon. China will become more bellicose towards Taiwan, but won't invade.
6) Man City will win the League and Leicester will be promoted with a record points total from the Championship. The summer Olympics will be fun, and good public relations for Macron but no obvious successor.
Big Rish doesn't give a fuck about the state of the tory party after the GE as he will be off to be Musk's pool boy at his third best house. So any consideration about how the result will be worse in December is irrelevant.
A Russian who had pissed off Mad Vlad dying in a mysterious accident not involving a window was an extremely surprising event.
Economy - nothing much is going to change. Big Labour lead through to polling day - no change. SNP continue to flag. Trump nomination, Sunak leadership, no change. Biden v Trump - no change, Biden wins again, Ukraine, no change, etc.
It's true that people often make dramatic short-run predictions when life then tends to continue mostly the same. But History also suggests that something unexpected is going to happen and there will be some change!
This month is going to be personally traumatic for him. He is facing two judgments where he has already lost and the issue is damages to be awarded against him. The New York case has already found his businesses guilty of systemic fraud. The issue is the award to the state. This will be not less than $500m IMHO - and might easily be closer to a billion. Much as Trump will rail it is "the system out to get him", the message will start to sink in, the glitter rub off - he is a conman whose claims to be some great commercial mind will start to fall apart. This fall from grace argument is one the media loves to run with.(And there could still be more criminal charges in the fallout of this judgment.)
Trump will not be free to do business in New York. The judgment will be excoriating on his lack of credibility in his testimony and the sheer nastiness of the way he conducted himself. Trump will not remotely have the money to meet the judgment (and potential mega-donors will back off bankrolling him because the narrative against him has turned so negative). He will lodge appeals, but they will swiftly come to nothing. The fire sale of his assets will then start. We will see whether Mar-a-Lago is really worth the billion or billion and half Trump claims.
As well as his business court case, he is also going to see what the defamation judgment is going to cost him against E. Jean Carroll. It won't be the $148m Rudi Giuliani was hit with, but it will likely be tens of millions at the time the New York case has taken funds away. It will also remind the voters what a shit he is. Especially women voters.
Whilst some voters will stick with him, and despite these being civil cases and not a criminal, it will cause a material - 5%+ of his support - to back away and not return.
There are two ways Trump could react. He could rant and scream and in the process, look really quite deranged. Or he could be uncharacteristically silent.
However, these are just the personal life problems impinging on his persona projected to the voters. His bigger issues will be his political ones - staying on the ballot and maintaining his claim to absolute Presidential immunity for his actions relating to overthrow the 2000 election result.
Or of course, they’ll double down into more extremism.
Incidentally, I’m (probably unjustifiably) hoping for a ‘Rejoin the EU’ movement to be much more evident later this year.
I also expect Trump to fail in a case appealing the outcome in the senior court in Washington DC finding that Trump has no absolute Presidential immunity. Anything else would leave the US Constitution open to utter abuse by a future President, be that Trump or A N Other. Indeed, in the most extreme outcome, Biden could take Trump out and shoot him - and then claim that same immunity. Once Trump has no immunity, his actions on and in the run up to January 6th and the storming of Congress to prevent the certification of the 2000 election leave him very exposed. His co-conspirators have already started taking plea deals. Those deals require them to nail Trump.
He is an old man going to jail. Rightly so. You don't get to try to overthrow an election of the US people, shrug your shoulders and go "Oh well....".
2024 will be a cascading series of disasters for Trump, from which he is unable to escape. They will culminate with him being put in jail for many years. The Republican Party is just going to have to resolve the issue of Donald Trump as best they can. But he will not be their candidate.
ETA a month longer in Downing Street; another Christmas at Chequers; and a campaign over Christmas and the New Year holidays will neutralise the opposition parties' advantage in the ground game.
I wish I had your faith that the american legal system can deliver in time to stop a Trump presidency. The other issue is what happens to civil order if he is barred by supreme court from running in a number of states?
I think that the worst Trumps many issues will be delayed until after the election.
Yes, trying to decide the election in courthouses before the vote, will almost certainly result in some sort of civil unrest.
Following the return of Cameron and the abortive return of Cummings, after disastrous local elections Sunak has a seance and offers Margaret Thatcher the Home office, Ted Heath Brexit minister and Disraeli levelling up. Each refuse.
Meanwhile the new host of supermarket sweep Matt Hancock announces in the Beano that he also unwilling to serve.
2019 Boris bursting back on the scene would shake things up fascinatingly. 2024 Boris wouldn't.
- May GE in the UK following a mildly promising set of economic data and decent spring polls for the Tories. SNP will do a bit better than expected and Lib Dems in line with expectations, for once (25 seats). Lab majority 120.
- Biden steps down following a stroke and his successor Pete Buttegieg faces and narrowly beats Trump in November. More constitutional shenanigans
- A significant natural disaster, the biggest since Covid, will dominate international news at some point, pushing Gaza, Trump and Ukraine off the front pages.
- It will be by some distance the hottest year on earth in recorded history thanks to the El Niño peaking right now
- Argentina will actually be quite interesting to watch under Milei.
Which would make things interesting, even if the GOP were to boot him as a candidate.
Trump gets the nom and the EC. Retribution for 2020 is swift, vengeful and violent. The US becomes an autocracy.
China subsumes Taiwan on February 1st 2025.
The Conservatives (not necessarily led by Sunak) sneak a 20 seat green shoots win on a low vote share with 50 plus seats with majorities of less than a thousand in an ultra low turnout New Year 2025 election. After a successful pre-election Christmas Eve 100 seat flight to Rwanda the policy is quietly shelved. The boats keep coming, but a crackdown on legal migration means net migration figures reduce to less than 100,000. Staff shortages mean the NHS backlog is struggling to improve. Enough are dying whilst on the list to allow the figures to appear to be better than they otherwise might look. The NHS is sold to Cedars Sinai Healthcare for a nominal £10. Several Cabinet Ministers' wives are made Executive Directors. Richard Burgon becomes LOTO and as a result the Conservative poll lead extends to plus 20. Reform beat Labour into fourth place in the 2025 locals.
Ukraine grinds on until Trump throws them to the dogs on January 21st 2025. The USA leaves NATO.
Palestinians are cleared from the river to the sea. Netanyahu remains PM. Lebanon becomes the new Gaza. The world looks on and does nothing. Jared Kushner is appointed Secretary of State.
Villa win the 2023/24 Premiership title.
If he doesn't get it, people will be saying - afterwards - 'of course someone like Trump was never going to get a second chance', 'of course America was always going to come to its senses'. Which is often a clue as to how relatively likely such an outcome may be.
And his Georgia trial will happen this year. One which the new Republican candidate cannot pardon him for, as it is not federal.
In other news, if it looks like Labour will stroll it in England, it will likely reduce the pressure on Scots to abandon the SNP.