In the event that the Supreme Court allows states to strike Donald Trump from the ballot paper because of his insurrectionism, is there anything stopping him nominating a proxy (say Ivanka?) to stand in those states in his stead? https://twitter.com/AlastairMeeks/status/1741475829488496707
Been to the best firework display I have ever seen and it wasn't a professional one. Thousands on the promenade at Southwold beach in front of the beach huts. Church bells ringing, most of the huts open and ever 20 metres or so people on the beach letting off expensive fireworks. The combined effort of dozens of parallel displays was amazing and when fireworks hit the sea they exploded spectacularly.
Nearly missed it as I had a very, very boozy and long lunch in Walberswick.
In the event that the Supreme Court allows states to strike Donald Trump from the ballot paper because of his insurrectionism, is there anything stopping him nominating a proxy (say Ivanka?) to stand in those states in his stead? https://twitter.com/AlastairMeeks/status/1741475829488496707
Yes.
Unless there is a decision before Friday, he will have missed the filing deadline for the primaries and there seems little point even attempting to stand a stooge as a spoiler candidate.
And Happy New Year to all PBers, in the hope your bets are suitably green. Especially @Peter_the_Punter ’s bet with me!
In the event that the Supreme Court allows states to strike Donald Trump from the ballot paper because of his insurrectionism, is there anything stopping him nominating a proxy (say Ivanka?) to stand in those states in his stead? https://twitter.com/AlastairMeeks/status/1741475829488496707
No but he may not be able to control how the electors vote
My main hope for 2024 is that we, the Germans and the Americans will finally get serious about helping Ukraine to win, rather than just survive. It might cost us more in the short run, but it would be cheaper in the long run.
Why is the Kerch Bridge still standing almost two years into the war? Why are F16s only just starting to dribble into Ukraine? Why aren't Tauruses and ATACMS blowing Russians to Kingdom Come, or at least back to Russia? Why does Ukraine still not have anything like enough shells?
Most other issues are trivial compared to this, where the security of the free world and the credibility of its alliances are at stake.
I see Leon has been Americanised. Travelled is written the American way. Happy New year to all at PB. The Tories are screwed. Even tax cuts won't save them, only mitigate the disaster.
To be brutally honest I think the relative quality of first class airline lounges is LESS important than Ukraine. Its about the same as Gaza, if you take a step back and really think
Obviously its more important than Sudan. One shouldn’t get hysterical
TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.
Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.
I’ve enjoyed a blissful 2 months away, and indeed 2 months away from the News. It has been a wonderful time of renewal.
I hope peeps are well. I expect I won’t spend a lot of time on here until the election, especially if it continues to be filled with Leon’s imho somewhat sad quasi-facebook travelogues.
I’ve enjoyed a blissful 2 months away, and indeed 2 months away from the News. It has been a wonderful time of renewal.
I hope peeps are well. I expect I won’t spend a lot of time on here until the election, especially if it continues to be filled with Leon’s imho somewhat sad quasi-facebook travelogues.
TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.
Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.
I’ve enjoyed a blissful 2 months away, and indeed 2 months away from the News. It has been a wonderful time of renewal.
I hope peeps are well. I expect I won’t spend a lot of time on here until the election, especially if it continues to be filled with Leon’s imho somewhat sad quasi-facebook travelogues.
How’s your flask ?
And there’s the sort-of reason why I don’t reside on here.
The flask is good. Right next to me and currently filled with Lavazza coffee because I’m staying at a friend’s.
But please leave out the snide male posturing stuff. You’re better than that, I hope.
You all. Keep it softer and kinder on here you might even see more of us younger females posting on here. Particularly important in the run up to the election when newcomers should be made to feel welcome. It’s a big year for political betting.
p.s. I never really understood why flask-filling and other alternative lifestyle choices would be dissed until a psychotherapist friend reminded me that people feel threatened by difference.
I suggest we all need to make radical choices, from micro (eg energy saving) to macro if we care for the Mother Earth which we are currently raping.
If I’m too left-field and feminine for peeps on here I shall stay away but I nevertheless wish you all as Happy a New Year as possible. I was concerned about the health of a few regulars on here when I last posted 2 months ago. I hope they are okay? xx
TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.
Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.
So 97 mk 2 if he’s right
Indeed. He suggests tactical voting will be under-estimated and puts the LDs on 28.
For people engaged in politics, I agree with him that the trend toward tactical voting will be very powerful this time; I feel it myself. The type of educated switched-on voters the LibDems need are those most likely to dig out the data and make sensible choices.
What I don't know is whether there'll be the same push toward tactical voting among those not really paying attention? That may depend especially on how effective the local LibDem campaigns are - after the scandalous shambles of 2019, one does wonder. Hopefully the idiots behind that campaign are all sacked, or locked in the wardrobe.
TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.
Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.
So.
Here are my predictions:
(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)
(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.
(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.
(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.
(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.
(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.
(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.
(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.
(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.
(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.
(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.
(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.
(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.
A happy New Year to one and all! The sky is bright and clear here, and it doesn’t appear to be windy. I hope that is a sign of things to come! Could our collective resolution be for civilised discussion this year? Please! Although Leon must be allowed his travelogues!
TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.
Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.
So.
Here are my predictions:
(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)
(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.
(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.
(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.
(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.
(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.
(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.
(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.
(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.
(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.
(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.
(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.
(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.
Meeks gives Labour a larger majority, but otherwise that's pretty much what he's saying.
I agree that falling inflation will give economies and markets a lift during the early part of the year, but wouldn't underestimate the chance of a serious wobble later in the year due to financial indebtedness and political instability.
As Meeks says, Sunak's problem is inexperience and lack of proven resilience, and the Tories' problem is that their most (internally) favoured replacements are all less experienced still.
Reform is your left field one, that doesn't sit happily with your electoral prediction. If Farage/Tice really gets off the ground, surely the Tories should be near-destroyed? Personally I can't see Farage being bothered to make the effort; the Tory-hatred seems to be coming mostly from Tice and Oakeshott, who don't call the shots. Farage is more likely to threaten but not deliver, perhaps for a deeply cynical peerage? Delivered by Sunak's exit honours list.
WW1 suggests that a longstanding long-front stalemate can collapse suddenly and unexpectedly. Sadly.
TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.
Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.
So.
Here are my predictions:
(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)
(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.
(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.
(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.
(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.
(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.
(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.
(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.
(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.
(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.
(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.
(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.
(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.
Shit.
Just read Meek's predictions, and they aren't that different from mine, except that he expects a much larger Labour majority.
TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.
Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.
So.
Here are my predictions:
(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)
(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.
(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.
(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.
(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.
(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.
(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.
(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.
(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.
(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.
(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.
(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.
(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.
Shit.
Just read Meek's predictions, and they aren't that different from mine, except that he expects a much larger Labour majority.
TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.
Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.
So.
Here are my predictions:
(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)
(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.
(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.
(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.
(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.
(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.
(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.
(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.
(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.
(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.
(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.
(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.
(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.
Meeks gives Labour a larger majority, but otherwise that's pretty much what he's saying.
I agree that falling inflation will give economies and markets a lift during the early part of the year, but wouldn't underestimate the chance of a serious wobble later in the year due to financial indebtedness and political instability.
As Meeks says, Sunak's problem is inexperience and lack of proven resilience, and the Tories' problem is that their most (internally) favoured replacements are all less experienced still.
Reform is your left field one, that doesn't sit happily with your electoral prediction. If Farage/Tice really gets off the ground, surely the Tories should be near-destroyed? Personally I can't see Farage being bothered to make the effort; the Tory-hatred seems to be coming mostly from Tice and Oakeshott, who don't call the shots. Farage is more likely to threaten but not deliver, perhaps for a deeply cynical peerage? Delivered by Sunak's exit honours list.
WW1 suggests that a longstanding long-front stalemate can collapse suddenly and unexpectedly. Sadly.
I think that works in Ukraine's favour rather than Russia's.
Ukraine is on their own land , with short supply lines, fighting for their own country.
TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.
Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.
So.
Here are my predictions:
(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)
(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.
(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.
(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.
(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.
(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.
(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.
(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.
(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.
(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.
(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.
(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.
(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.
Looking at your point 10, does that suggest a rerun of January 6, 2021? Or will Trump accept the verdict this time?
TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.
Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.
So.
Here are my predictions:
(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)
(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.
(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.
(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.
(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.
(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.
(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.
(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.
(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.
(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.
(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.
(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.
(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.
Meeks gives Labour a larger majority, but otherwise that's pretty much what he's saying.
I agree that falling inflation will give economies and markets a lift during the early part of the year, but wouldn't underestimate the chance of a serious wobble later in the year due to financial indebtedness and political instability.
As Meeks says, Sunak's problem is inexperience and lack of proven resilience, and the Tories' problem is that their most (internally) favoured replacements are all less experienced still.
Reform is your left field one, that doesn't sit happily with your electoral prediction. If Farage/Tice really gets off the ground, surely the Tories should be near-destroyed? Personally I can't see Farage being bothered to make the effort; the Tory-hatred seems to be coming mostly from Tice and Oakeshott, who don't call the shots. Farage is more likely to threaten but not deliver, perhaps for a deeply cynical peerage? Delivered by Sunak's exit honours list.
WW1 suggests that a longstanding long-front stalemate can collapse suddenly and unexpectedly. Sadly.
I think that works in Ukraine's favour rather than Russia's.
Ukraine is on their own land , with short supply lines, fighting for their own country.
Russia - like Germany in 1918 - was not.
The death, or overwhelming incapacity of Vladimir Putin?
TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.
Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.
So.
Here are my predictions:
(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)
(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.
(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.
(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.
(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.
(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.
(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.
(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.
(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.
(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.
(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.
(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.
(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.
Looking at your point 10, does that suggest a rerun of January 6, 2021? Or will Trump accept the verdict this time?
Re Reform -point 7 - I dont suppose that Boris could swallow his dislike of Farage and join Reform could he?
TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.
Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.
So.
Here are my predictions:
(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)
(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.
(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.
(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.
(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.
(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.
(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.
(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.
(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.
(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.
(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.
(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.
(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.
Looking at your point 10, does that suggest a rerun of January 6, 2021? Or will Trump accept the verdict this time?
Re Reform -point 7 - I dont suppose that Boris could swallow his dislike of Farage and join Reform could he?
I don't think so. He fancies himself to come back from the wilderness as Tory saviour. Complete delusion of course.
TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.
Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.
So.
Here are my predictions:
(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)
(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.
(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.
(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.
(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.
(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.
(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.
(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.
(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.
(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.
(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.
(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.
(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.
Meeks gives Labour a larger majority, but otherwise that's pretty much what he's saying.
I agree that falling inflation will give economies and markets a lift during the early part of the year, but wouldn't underestimate the chance of a serious wobble later in the year due to financial indebtedness and political instability.
As Meeks says, Sunak's problem is inexperience and lack of proven resilience, and the Tories' problem is that their most (internally) favoured replacements are all less experienced still.
Reform is your left field one, that doesn't sit happily with your electoral prediction. If Farage/Tice really gets off the ground, surely the Tories should be near-destroyed? Personally I can't see Farage being bothered to make the effort; the Tory-hatred seems to be coming mostly from Tice and Oakeshott, who don't call the shots. Farage is more likely to threaten but not deliver, perhaps for a deeply cynical peerage? Delivered by Sunak's exit honours list.
WW1 suggests that a longstanding long-front stalemate can collapse suddenly and unexpectedly. Sadly.
I think that works in Ukraine's favour rather than Russia's.
Ukraine is on their own land , with short supply lines, fighting for their own country.
Russia - like Germany in 1918 - was not.
The death, or overwhelming incapacity of Vladimir Putin?
One of the surprise events of 2023 was the Wagner rebellion and march on Moscow. It all fell apart quite quickly but surprised me how limited was the military response to it. Wagner is now disbanded, but similar sentiments must exist in other units.
TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.
Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.
So.
Here are my predictions:
(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)
(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.
(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.
(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.
(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.
(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.
(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.
(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.
(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.
(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.
(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.
(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.
(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.
Shit.
Just read Meek's predictions, and they aren't that different from mine, except that he expects a much larger Labour majority.
I think the Tories getting 168 seats (Mr Meeks suggestion) seems a bit too high.
If the Toriss get 150 seats they would be exceeding my expectations.
After all what can (and will) they offer most voters - more of the same isn’t great. Heck I expect triple lock pensioners will be looking at elderly social care and panicking at the lack of accessibility
A happy New Year to one and all! The sky is bright and clear here, and it doesn’t appear to be windy. I hope that is a sign of things to come! Could our collective resolution be for civilised discussion this year? Please! Although Leon must be allowed his travelogues!
This is the year I have my 80th, my granddaughter is 21, and we have our diamond wedding anniversary in May
I remain very much under the weather as I await my urgent pacemaker operation and hope the consultant finds a time in his busy calendar soon
Indeed I have purchased a smaller car for when I can drive again and so my wife will find it easier to drive as well
This is the year the chaotic and idiotic conservative party are sent deservedly into opposition and Starmer and labour begin a 5 year term with a good working majority and I wish them well
I did read some of the comments at midnight, and it is remarkable how many good wishes from across the divide were expressed and it speaks highly of the quality of posters and the respect the forum has for its administrators that I would gentle suggest, and agree with you, that unnecessary language is not in the spirit of this forum
I’ve enjoyed a blissful 2 months away, and indeed 2 months away from the News. It has been a wonderful time of renewal.
I hope peeps are well. I expect I won’t spend a lot of time on here until the election, especially if it continues to be filled with Leon’s imho somewhat sad quasi-facebook travelogues.
How’s your flask ?
And there’s the sort-of reason why I don’t reside on here.
The flask is good. Right next to me and currently filled with Lavazza coffee because I’m staying at a friend’s.
But please leave out the snide male posturing stuff. You’re better than that, I hope.
You all. Keep it softer and kinder on here you might even see more of us younger females posting on here. Particularly important in the run up to the election when newcomers should be made to feel welcome. It’s a big year for political betting.
Younger female? Thought you had kids and walked with a stick (useful for beating away folk who dared breach the 2m line)…
TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.
Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.
So.
Here are my predictions:
(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)
(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.
(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.
(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.
(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.
(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.
(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.
(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.
(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.
(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.
(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.
(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.
(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.
Shit.
Just read Meek's predictions, and they aren't that different from mine, except that he expects a much larger Labour majority.
I think the Tories getting 168 seats (Mr Meeks suggestion) seems a bit too high.
If the Toriss get 150 seats they would be exceeding my expectations.
After all what can (and will) they offer most voters - more of the same isn’t great. Heck I expect triple lock pensioners will be looking at elderly social care and panicking at the lack of accessibility
"More of the same" was a tough enough sell in '97. This time, there's also the question of "more of which same"? The Johnsonism people actually voted for, another round of Truss, or continuity Sunak? None of them actually appeals.
One question the 2024 elections here and in the US should definitely answer for us- how much are election results about the brilliance of the winner, and how much are they about the awfulness of the runner up? If you think the first, then the Conservatives might do OKish, because Starmer is meh. If it's the second, it's going to be a terrrrrrrrrr... rrrible night for the Tories.
I’ve enjoyed a blissful 2 months away, and indeed 2 months away from the News. It has been a wonderful time of renewal.
I hope peeps are well. I expect I won’t spend a lot of time on here until the election, especially if it continues to be filled with Leon’s imho somewhat sad quasi-facebook travelogues.
How’s your flask ?
And there’s the sort-of reason why I don’t reside on here.
The flask is good. Right next to me and currently filled with Lavazza coffee because I’m staying at a friend’s.
But please leave out the snide male posturing stuff. You’re better than that, I hope.
You all. Keep it softer and kinder on here you might even see more of us younger females posting on here. Particularly important in the run up to the election when newcomers should be made to feel welcome. It’s a big year for political betting.
Younger female? Thought you had kids and walked with a stick (useful for beating away folk who dared breach the 2m line)…
Why is the Kerch Bridge still standing almost two years into the war? Why are F16s only just starting to dribble into Ukraine? Why aren't Tauruses and ATACMS blowing Russians to Kingdom Come, or at least back to Russia? Why does Ukraine still not have anything like enough shells?
Until the Dutch/Draken deal went to shit there weren't any F-16s readily available as nobody was or is daft enough to give away in-service front line aircraft. They couldn't realistically be regenerated from the boneyard at AMARC as that would take forever and, frankly, the US is not into it enough to try.
New builds weren't an option as that would have involved fucking over Bahrain (can't do that because, unlike Ukraine, they actually have money) or the Breakaway Province of China (can't do that because China is the next away fixture).
A lot of the hesitancy over weapons now is because they are coming out of reserves and the services involved are taking the balance sheet hit with no replacements in sight. The RAF gave away a shit load of Storm Shadows on the understanding that they would be replaced by Rampage but now the MoD are like "LOL, JK. Maybe later."
TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.
Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.
So.
Here are my predictions:
(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)
(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.
(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.
(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.
(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.
(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.
(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.
(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.
(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.
(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.
(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.
(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.
(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.
Shit.
Just read Meek's predictions, and they aren't that different from mine, except that he expects a much larger Labour majority.
I think the Tories getting 168 seats (Mr Meeks suggestion) seems a bit too high.
If the Toriss get 150 seats they would be exceeding my expectations.
After all what can (and will) they offer most voters - more of the same isn’t great. Heck I expect triple lock pensioners will be looking at elderly social care and panicking at the lack of accessibility
"More of the same" was a tough enough sell in '97. This time, there's also the question of "more of which same"? The Johnsonism people actually voted for, another round of Truss, or continuity Sunak? None of them actually appeals.
One question the 2024 elections here and in the US should definitely answer for us- how much are election results about the brilliance of the winner, and how much are they about the awfulness of the runner up? If you think the first, then the Conservatives might do OKish, because Starmer is meh. If it's the second, it's going to be a terrrrrrrrrr... rrrible night for the Tories.
Remember that my viewpoint is that most people vote for the least worst option.
That explains the 2019 result (Boris offered an end to the logjam and wasn’t Corbyn).
Equally it means that the Tory issue will be getting their voters out the door and an autumn election is going to make that impossible as the canvassers won’t be interested in doing so - having lost their seats in May.
Hershey is being sued by a Florida woman who says its holiday-themed Reese’s peanut butter candies lack the artistic details shown on the packaging that make them worth buying. https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1741700801314075051
Is this going to become the main story this week once Fleet Street gets back to work? Or are the D Notices already flowing?
Robert Peston @Peston After the former most powerful government official has asserted that the UK’s nuclear weapons and defence capability is dangerously fragile, the government will surely have to make a statement to parliament. See attached from @Dominic2306
Here goes my predictions, which are pretty off the cuff rather than the product of deep thought.
1) Whether technical recession or not, economic performance will flat line at the beginning of the year, but pick up a little second half. Inflation will drop to 2% by the summer, and interest rates will come down a little. 3.5% by year end.
2) The UK General Election will be late November/early December. This is the reverse of my betting position, which is for a May Election. If polls start improving then Sunak will hold out for further movement. If they are static or declining further he won't go early, though won't stifle Election talk.
3) The SNP will do badly with 15-25 seats, Lib Dems will be 25-35 seats. Greens will gain vote share but lose their seat, Reform will get no seats and fail to keep their deposit in more than a handful. The Tories will be 175 +/- 50 seats. This puts Lab on 400 +/- 50 seats. I have done these as ranges, but if forced to be more specific would go for the midpoint of each.
4) Putin will win the election in Russia, Modi in India both consolidating their autocracies, Biden-Trump could go either way, but I think Biden will edge it.
5) The Ukraine war will continue as stalemate, with the Ukranians holding on in defence and making it costly for Russia. Ukranian begging will become more desperate for weapons, but financial support will be forthcoming from Europe. Gaza will be a running sore for Israel, and the war likely to expand into West Bank and Southern Lebanon. China will become more bellicose towards Taiwan, but won't invade.
6) Man City will win the League and Leicester will be promoted with a record points total from the Championship. The summer Olympics will be fun, and good public relations for Macron but no obvious successor.
Is this going to become the main story this week once Fleet Street gets back to work? Or are the D Notices already flowing?
Robert Peston @Peston After the former most powerful government official has asserted that the UK’s nuclear weapons and defence capability is dangerously fragile, the government will surely have to make a statement to parliament. See attached from @Dominic2306
I don't think any of The Dominator's relevations are news to anybody who has been paying attention. The RN has 10 submarines (shortly to be 9, thanks tories) of which 8 currently work consuming 50% of the service's budget.
TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.
Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.
I'm finding it hard to disagree with any of it, although I guess I don't think Labour will win the kind of majority he envisages. The rest including the election date seems plausible - will I awake on my birthday to a Labour government?
Hershey is being sued by a Florida woman who says its holiday-themed Reese’s peanut butter candies lack the artistic details shown on the packaging that make them worth buying. https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1741700801314075051
My opinion from the bench: Reese's peanut butter candies are always worth eating. Case dismissed.
Is this going to become the main story this week once Fleet Street gets back to work? Or are the D Notices already flowing?
Robert Peston @Peston After the former most powerful government official has asserted that the UK’s nuclear weapons and defence capability is dangerously fragile, the government will surely have to make a statement to parliament. See attached from @Dominic2306
I don't think any of The Dominator's relevations are news to anybody who has been paying attention. The RN has 10 submarines (shortly to be 9, thanks tories) of which 8 currently work consuming 50% of the service's budget.
50% of the budget? Capital or running? That much? With expensive 'targets' (as my ex-submariner colleague at work used to call them) such as QE2 and PoW and all the 'destroyers' to pay for?
TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.
Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.
So.
Here are my predictions:
(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)
(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.
(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.
(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.
(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.
(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.
(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.
(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.
(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.
(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.
(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.
(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.
(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.
Meeks gives Labour a larger majority, but otherwise that's pretty much what he's saying.
I agree that falling inflation will give economies and markets a lift during the early part of the year, but wouldn't underestimate the chance of a serious wobble later in the year due to financial indebtedness and political instability.
As Meeks says, Sunak's problem is inexperience and lack of proven resilience, and the Tories' problem is that their most (internally) favoured replacements are all less experienced still.
Reform is your left field one, that doesn't sit happily with your electoral prediction. If Farage/Tice really gets off the ground, surely the Tories should be near-destroyed? Personally I can't see Farage being bothered to make the effort; the Tory-hatred seems to be coming mostly from Tice and Oakeshott, who don't call the shots. Farage is more likely to threaten but not deliver, perhaps for a deeply cynical peerage? Delivered by Sunak's exit honours list.
WW1 suggests that a longstanding long-front stalemate can collapse suddenly and unexpectedly. Sadly.
I think that works in Ukraine's favour rather than Russia's.
Ukraine is on their own land , with short supply lines, fighting for their own country.
Russia - like Germany in 1918 - was not.
The death, or overwhelming incapacity of Vladimir Putin?
One of the surprise events of 2023 was the Wagner rebellion and march on Moscow. It all fell apart quite quickly but surprised me how limited was the military response to it. Wagner is now disbanded, but similar sentiments must exist in other units.
One of the least surprising events of the year, was the unfortunate accident involving Mr Prigozhin following his coup attempt!
I agree with the Meekster about December for the GE. October is out because KC3 and his favourite equine mount will be glad handing in the southern hemisphere for most of October and May is recockulous because that's just chucking seven months of power away.
Big Rish doesn't give a fuck about the state of the tory party after the GE as he will be off to be Musk's pool boy at his third best house. So any consideration about how the result will be worse in December is irrelevant.
TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.
Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.
So.
Here are my predictions:
(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)
(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.
(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.
(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.
(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.
(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.
(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.
(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.
(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.
(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.
(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.
(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.
(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.
Shit.
Just read Meek's predictions, and they aren't that different from mine, except that he expects a much larger Labour majority.
I think the Tories getting 168 seats (Mr Meeks suggestion) seems a bit too high.
If the Toriss get 150 seats they would be exceeding my expectations.
After all what can (and will) they offer most voters - more of the same isn’t great. Heck I expect triple lock pensioners will be looking at elderly social care and panicking at the lack of accessibility
"More of the same" was a tough enough sell in '97. This time, there's also the question of "more of which same"? The Johnsonism people actually voted for, another round of Truss, or continuity Sunak? None of them actually appeals.
One question the 2024 elections here and in the US should definitely answer for us- how much are election results about the brilliance of the winner, and how much are they about the awfulness of the runner up? If you think the first, then the Conservatives might do OKish, because Starmer is meh. If it's the second, it's going to be a terrrrrrrrrr... rrrible night for the Tories.
Bottom line is that, provided they're not scared of Labour, next time most people won't vote Tory.
TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.
Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.
So.
Here are my predictions:
(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)
(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.
(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.
(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.
(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.
(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.
(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.
(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.
(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.
(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.
(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.
(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.
(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.
Meeks gives Labour a larger majority, but otherwise that's pretty much what he's saying.
I agree that falling inflation will give economies and markets a lift during the early part of the year, but wouldn't underestimate the chance of a serious wobble later in the year due to financial indebtedness and political instability.
As Meeks says, Sunak's problem is inexperience and lack of proven resilience, and the Tories' problem is that their most (internally) favoured replacements are all less experienced still.
Reform is your left field one, that doesn't sit happily with your electoral prediction. If Farage/Tice really gets off the ground, surely the Tories should be near-destroyed? Personally I can't see Farage being bothered to make the effort; the Tory-hatred seems to be coming mostly from Tice and Oakeshott, who don't call the shots. Farage is more likely to threaten but not deliver, perhaps for a deeply cynical peerage? Delivered by Sunak's exit honours list.
WW1 suggests that a longstanding long-front stalemate can collapse suddenly and unexpectedly. Sadly.
I think that works in Ukraine's favour rather than Russia's.
Ukraine is on their own land , with short supply lines, fighting for their own country.
Russia - like Germany in 1918 - was not.
The death, or overwhelming incapacity of Vladimir Putin?
One of the surprise events of 2023 was the Wagner rebellion and march on Moscow. It all fell apart quite quickly but surprised me how limited was the military response to it. Wagner is now disbanded, but similar sentiments must exist in other units.
One of the least surprising events of the year, was the unfortunate accident involving Mr Prigozhin following his coup attempt!
I disagree.
A Russian who had pissed off Mad Vlad dying in a mysterious accident not involving a window was an extremely surprising event.
Lots of essentially 'continuity predictions', this year....
Economy - nothing much is going to change. Big Labour lead through to polling day - no change. SNP continue to flag. Trump nomination, Sunak leadership, no change. Biden v Trump - no change, Biden wins again, Ukraine, no change, etc.
It's true that people often make dramatic short-run predictions when life then tends to continue mostly the same. But History also suggests that something unexpected is going to happen and there will be some change!
I'm going to be quite contrarian on Trump. He will NOT be the Republican candidate in 2024.
This month is going to be personally traumatic for him. He is facing two judgments where he has already lost and the issue is damages to be awarded against him. The New York case has already found his businesses guilty of systemic fraud. The issue is the award to the state. This will be not less than $500m IMHO - and might easily be closer to a billion. Much as Trump will rail it is "the system out to get him", the message will start to sink in, the glitter rub off - he is a conman whose claims to be some great commercial mind will start to fall apart. This fall from grace argument is one the media loves to run with.(And there could still be more criminal charges in the fallout of this judgment.)
Trump will not be free to do business in New York. The judgment will be excoriating on his lack of credibility in his testimony and the sheer nastiness of the way he conducted himself. Trump will not remotely have the money to meet the judgment (and potential mega-donors will back off bankrolling him because the narrative against him has turned so negative). He will lodge appeals, but they will swiftly come to nothing. The fire sale of his assets will then start. We will see whether Mar-a-Lago is really worth the billion or billion and half Trump claims.
As well as his business court case, he is also going to see what the defamation judgment is going to cost him against E. Jean Carroll. It won't be the $148m Rudi Giuliani was hit with, but it will likely be tens of millions at the time the New York case has taken funds away. It will also remind the voters what a shit he is. Especially women voters.
Whilst some voters will stick with him, and despite these being civil cases and not a criminal, it will cause a material - 5%+ of his support - to back away and not return.
There are two ways Trump could react. He could rant and scream and in the process, look really quite deranged. Or he could be uncharacteristically silent.
However, these are just the personal life problems impinging on his persona projected to the voters. His bigger issues will be his political ones - staying on the ballot and maintaining his claim to absolute Presidential immunity for his actions relating to overthrow the 2000 election result.
TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.
Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.
So.
Here are my predictions:
(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)
(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.
(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.
(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.
(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.
(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.
(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.
(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.
(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.
(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.
(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.
(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.
(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.
Looking at your point 10, does that suggest a rerun of January 6, 2021? Or will Trump accept the verdict this time?
Re Reform -point 7 - I dont suppose that Boris could swallow his dislike of Farage and join Reform could he?
I don't think so. He fancies himself to come back from the wilderness as Tory saviour. Complete delusion of course.
Depends, I suppose, on how disastrous the election turns out to be. With the Conservatives down around 100, then sanity might break out! Or of course, they’ll double down into more extremism.
Incidentally, I’m (probably unjustifiably) hoping for a ‘Rejoin the EU’ movement to be much more evident later this year.
Part 2: I expect Colorado and Maine to be joined this month by other states moving to exclude him from the ballot. These will create a need for the issue to be urgently reviewed by the Supreme Court. Controversially perhaps, I do not expect Trump to win on this issue. Two of the right-wing Supreme Court justices have already given judgments in their prior careers that have supported the rights of the individual states to decide how to best protect their ballots. I suspect they will go along with the similar notion - which will mean they will not interfere to put Trump back on the ballot. To do otherwise is going to require some considerable and obvious contortions.
I also expect Trump to fail in a case appealing the outcome in the senior court in Washington DC finding that Trump has no absolute Presidential immunity. Anything else would leave the US Constitution open to utter abuse by a future President, be that Trump or A N Other. Indeed, in the most extreme outcome, Biden could take Trump out and shoot him - and then claim that same immunity. Once Trump has no immunity, his actions on and in the run up to January 6th and the storming of Congress to prevent the certification of the 2000 election leave him very exposed. His co-conspirators have already started taking plea deals. Those deals require them to nail Trump.
He is an old man going to jail. Rightly so. You don't get to try to overthrow an election of the US people, shrug your shoulders and go "Oh well....".
2024 will be a cascading series of disasters for Trump, from which he is unable to escape. They will culminate with him being put in jail for many years. The Republican Party is just going to have to resolve the issue of Donald Trump as best they can. But he will not be their candidate.
TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.
Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.
So.
Here are my predictions:
(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)
(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.
(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.
(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.
(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.
(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.
(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.
(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.
(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.
(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.
(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.
(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.
(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.
Meeks gives Labour a larger majority, but otherwise that's pretty much what he's saying.
I agree that falling inflation will give economies and markets a lift during the early part of the year, but wouldn't underestimate the chance of a serious wobble later in the year due to financial indebtedness and political instability.
As Meeks says, Sunak's problem is inexperience and lack of proven resilience, and the Tories' problem is that their most (internally) favoured replacements are all less experienced still.
Reform is your left field one, that doesn't sit happily with your electoral prediction. If Farage/Tice really gets off the ground, surely the Tories should be near-destroyed? Personally I can't see Farage being bothered to make the effort; the Tory-hatred seems to be coming mostly from Tice and Oakeshott, who don't call the shots. Farage is more likely to threaten but not deliver, perhaps for a deeply cynical peerage? Delivered by Sunak's exit honours list.
WW1 suggests that a longstanding long-front stalemate can collapse suddenly and unexpectedly. Sadly.
I think that works in Ukraine's favour rather than Russia's.
Ukraine is on their own land , with short supply lines, fighting for their own country.
Russia - like Germany in 1918 - was not.
The death, or overwhelming incapacity of Vladimir Putin?
One of the surprise events of 2023 was the Wagner rebellion and march on Moscow. It all fell apart quite quickly but surprised me how limited was the military response to it. Wagner is now disbanded, but similar sentiments must exist in other units.
The Bay of Prigz was a real missed opportunity for Ukraine. On that Saturday when the Wagner mad lads were on the road to Moscow all was in flux. They should have been chucking everything including the kitchen moika at Melitopol instead of watching it on Telegram like everyone else.
I agree with the Meekster about December for the GE. October is out because KC3 and his favourite equine mount will be glad handing in the southern hemisphere for most of October and May is recockulous because that's just chucking seven months of power away.
Big Rish doesn't give a fuck about the state of the tory party after the GE as he will be off to be Musk's pool boy at his third best house. So any consideration about how the result will be worse in December is irrelevant.
Yes and that is why I think Rishi will hang on to January 2025.
ETA a month longer in Downing Street; another Christmas at Chequers; and a campaign over Christmas and the New Year holidays will neutralise the opposition parties' advantage in the ground game.
TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.
Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.
So.
Here are my predictions:
(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)
(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.
(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.
(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.
(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.
(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.
(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.
(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.
(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.
(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.
(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.
(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.
(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.
Meeks gives Labour a larger majority, but otherwise that's pretty much what he's saying.
I agree that falling inflation will give economies and markets a lift during the early part of the year, but wouldn't underestimate the chance of a serious wobble later in the year due to financial indebtedness and political instability.
As Meeks says, Sunak's problem is inexperience and lack of proven resilience, and the Tories' problem is that their most (internally) favoured replacements are all less experienced still.
Reform is your left field one, that doesn't sit happily with your electoral prediction. If Farage/Tice really gets off the ground, surely the Tories should be near-destroyed? Personally I can't see Farage being bothered to make the effort; the Tory-hatred seems to be coming mostly from Tice and Oakeshott, who don't call the shots. Farage is more likely to threaten but not deliver, perhaps for a deeply cynical peerage? Delivered by Sunak's exit honours list.
WW1 suggests that a longstanding long-front stalemate can collapse suddenly and unexpectedly. Sadly.
I think that works in Ukraine's favour rather than Russia's.
Ukraine is on their own land , with short supply lines, fighting for their own country.
Russia - like Germany in 1918 - was not.
The death, or overwhelming incapacity of Vladimir Putin?
One of the surprise events of 2023 was the Wagner rebellion and march on Moscow. It all fell apart quite quickly but surprised me how limited was the military response to it. Wagner is now disbanded, but similar sentiments must exist in other units.
One of the least surprising events of the year, was the unfortunate accident involving Mr Prigozhin following his coup attempt!
I disagree.
A Russian who had pissed off Mad Vlad dying in a mysterious accident not involving a window was an extremely surprising event.
The window accidents are for the small-fry problems. Plane crashes and Novichok agents are reserved for the big fish.
Part 2: I expect Colorado and Maine to be joined this month by other states moving to exclude him from the ballot. These will create a need for the issue to be urgently reviewed by the Supreme Court. Controversially perhaps, I do not expect Trump to win on this issue. Two of the right-wing Supreme Court justices have already given judgments in their prior careers that have supported the rights of the individual states to decide how to best protect their ballots. I suspect they will go along with the similar notion - which will mean they will not interfere to put Trump back on the ballot. To do otherwise is going to require some considerable and obvious contortions.
I also expect Trump to fail in a case appealing the outcome in the senior court in Washington DC finding that Trump has no absolute Presidential immunity. Anything else would leave the US Constitution open to utter abuse by a future President, be that Trump or A N Other. Indeed, in the most extreme outcome, Biden could take Trump out and shoot him - and then claim that same immunity. Once Trump has no immunity, his actions on and in the run up to January 6th and the storming of Congress to prevent the certification of the 2000 election leave him very exposed. His co-conspirators have already started taking plea deals. Those deals require them to nail Trump.
He is an old man going to jail. Rightly so. You don't get to try to overthrow an election of the US people, shrug your shoulders and go "Oh well....".
2024 will be a cascading series of disasters for Trump, from which he is unable to escape. They will culminate with him being put in jail for many years. The Republican Party is just going to have to resolve the issue of Donald Trump as best they can. But he will not be their candidate.
A brave and clear prediction. Fair play to you for being bold.
I wish I had your faith that the american legal system can deliver in time to stop a Trump presidency. The other issue is what happens to civil order if he is barred by supreme court from running in a number of states?
Part 2: I expect Colorado and Maine to be joined this month by other states moving to exclude him from the ballot. These will create a need for the issue to be urgently reviewed by the Supreme Court. Controversially perhaps, I do not expect Trump to win on this issue. Two of the right-wing Supreme Court justices have already given judgments in their prior careers that have supported the rights of the individual states to decide how to best protect their ballots. I suspect they will go along with the similar notion - which will mean they will not interfere to put Trump back on the ballot. To do otherwise is going to require some considerable and obvious contortions.
I also expect Trump to fail in a case appealing the outcome in the senior court in Washington DC finding that Trump has no absolute Presidential immunity. Anything else would leave the US Constitution open to utter abuse by a future President, be that Trump or A N Other. Indeed, in the most extreme outcome, Biden could take Trump out and shoot him - and then claim that same immunity. Once Trump has no immunity, his actions on and in the run up to January 6th and the storming of Congress to prevent the certification of the 2000 election leave him very exposed. His co-conspirators have already started taking plea deals. Those deals require them to nail Trump.
He is an old man going to jail. Rightly so. You don't get to try to overthrow an election of the US people, shrug your shoulders and go "Oh well....".
2024 will be a cascading series of disasters for Trump, from which he is unable to escape. They will culminate with him being put in jail for many years. The Republican Party is just going to have to resolve the issue of Donald Trump as best they can. But he will not be their candidate.
I'm going to make a prediction that one of or both Biden and Trump has a significant health issue causing them to drop out at the last minute.
I think that the worst Trumps many issues will be delayed until after the election.
Part 2: I expect Colorado and Maine to be joined this month by other states moving to exclude him from the ballot. These will create a need for the issue to be urgently reviewed by the Supreme Court. Controversially perhaps, I do not expect Trump to win on this issue. Two of the right-wing Supreme Court justices have already given judgments in their prior careers that have supported the rights of the individual states to decide how to best protect their ballots. I suspect they will go along with the similar notion - which will mean they will not interfere to put Trump back on the ballot. To do otherwise is going to require some considerable and obvious contortions.
I also expect Trump to fail in a case appealing the outcome in the senior court in Washington DC finding that Trump has no absolute Presidential immunity. Anything else would leave the US Constitution open to utter abuse by a future President, be that Trump or A N Other. Indeed, in the most extreme outcome, Biden could take Trump out and shoot him - and then claim that same immunity. Once Trump has no immunity, his actions on and in the run up to January 6th and the storming of Congress to prevent the certification of the 2000 election leave him very exposed. His co-conspirators have already started taking plea deals. Those deals require them to nail Trump.
He is an old man going to jail. Rightly so. You don't get to try to overthrow an election of the US people, shrug your shoulders and go "Oh well....".
2024 will be a cascading series of disasters for Trump, from which he is unable to escape. They will culminate with him being put in jail for many years. The Republican Party is just going to have to resolve the issue of Donald Trump as best they can. But he will not be their candidate.
A brave and clear prediction. Fair play to you for being bold.
I wish I had your faith that the american legal system can deliver in time to stop a Trump presidency. The other issue is what happens to civil order if he is barred by supreme court from running in a number of states?
Many US States also allow voters to write in candidates on the ballot paper.
Yes, trying to decide the election in courthouses before the vote, will almost certainly result in some sort of civil unrest.
Is this going to become the main story this week once Fleet Street gets back to work? Or are the D Notices already flowing?
Robert Peston @Peston After the former most powerful government official has asserted that the UK’s nuclear weapons and defence capability is dangerously fragile, the government will surely have to make a statement to parliament. See attached from @Dominic2306
I don't think any of The Dominator's relevations are news to anybody who has been paying attention. The RN has 10 submarines (shortly to be 9, thanks tories) of which 8 currently work consuming 50% of the service's budget.
Labour should make more of the Tories' defence cuts over the past several decades. Shake up the retired colonels in the shires and ex-squaddies in the red wall.
Following the return of Cameron and the abortive return of Cummings, after disastrous local elections Sunak has a seance and offers Margaret Thatcher the Home office, Ted Heath Brexit minister and Disraeli levelling up. Each refuse.
Meanwhile the new host of supermarket sweep Matt Hancock announces in the Beano that he also unwilling to serve.
Not my type (in the most obvious way imaginable), but clearly the man has (or more likely had) something about him. Charisma, if you like.
Shame he never found much useful to do with it.
Sometimes loud, boorish, entitled arrogance can be mislabeled as "charisma".
Boris did charm any number of women into bed. Call it charisma because it wasn't his svelte figure.
And whilst that charm works the first time, it doesn't work the hundredth time, especially as a response to "where the f🤬🤬🤬 were you last night?" To jump metaphors, once you have see the flags stuffed up the sleeve, the trick isn't magic any more.
2019 Boris bursting back on the scene would shake things up fascinatingly. 2024 Boris wouldn't.
- May GE in the UK following a mildly promising set of economic data and decent spring polls for the Tories. SNP will do a bit better than expected and Lib Dems in line with expectations, for once (25 seats). Lab majority 120. - Biden steps down following a stroke and his successor Pete Buttegieg faces and narrowly beats Trump in November. More constitutional shenanigans - A significant natural disaster, the biggest since Covid, will dominate international news at some point, pushing Gaza, Trump and Ukraine off the front pages. - It will be by some distance the hottest year on earth in recorded history thanks to the El Niño peaking right now - Argentina will actually be quite interesting to watch under Milei.
TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.
Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.
So.
Here are my predictions:
(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)
(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.
(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.
(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.
(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.
(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.
(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.
(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.
(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.
(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.
(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.
(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.
(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.
Meeks gives Labour a larger majority, but otherwise that's pretty much what he's saying.
I agree that falling inflation will give economies and markets a lift during the early part of the year, but wouldn't underestimate the chance of a serious wobble later in the year due to financial indebtedness and political instability.
As Meeks says, Sunak's problem is inexperience and lack of proven resilience, and the Tories' problem is that their most (internally) favoured replacements are all less experienced still.
Reform is your left field one, that doesn't sit happily with your electoral prediction. If Farage/Tice really gets off the ground, surely the Tories should be near-destroyed? Personally I can't see Farage being bothered to make the effort; the Tory-hatred seems to be coming mostly from Tice and Oakeshott, who don't call the shots. Farage is more likely to threaten but not deliver, perhaps for a deeply cynical peerage? Delivered by Sunak's exit honours list.
WW1 suggests that a longstanding long-front stalemate can collapse suddenly and unexpectedly. Sadly.
I think that works in Ukraine's favour rather than Russia's.
Ukraine is on their own land , with short supply lines, fighting for their own country.
Russia - like Germany in 1918 - was not.
The death, or overwhelming incapacity of Vladimir Putin?
One of the surprise events of 2023 was the Wagner rebellion and march on Moscow. It all fell apart quite quickly but surprised me how limited was the military response to it. Wagner is now disbanded, but similar sentiments must exist in other units.
One of the least surprising events of the year, was the unfortunate accident involving Mr Prigozhin following his coup attempt!
I disagree.
A Russian who had pissed off Mad Vlad dying in a mysterious accident not involving a window was an extremely surprising event.
Putin just wanted to give him more time to contemplate his demise as the plane fell - the bomb was designed not to kill its occupants immediately.
Not my type (in the most obvious way imaginable), but clearly the man has (or more likely had) something about him. Charisma, if you like.
Shame he never found much useful to do with it.
Sometimes loud, boorish, entitled arrogance can be mislabeled as "charisma".
Boris did charm any number of women into bed. Call it charisma because it wasn't his svelte figure.
And whilst that charm works the first time, it doesn't work the hundredth time, especially as a response to "where the f🤬🤬🤬 were you last night?" To jump metaphors, once you have see the flags stuffed up the sleeve, the trick isn't magic any more.
2019 Boris bursting back on the scene would shake things up fascinatingly. 2024 Boris wouldn't.
The parallels with Bridget Jones’s diary continue to work. Boris as Daniel Cleaver, Keir as Mark Darcy.
Part 2: I expect Colorado and Maine to be joined this month by other states moving to exclude him from the ballot. These will create a need for the issue to be urgently reviewed by the Supreme Court. Controversially perhaps, I do not expect Trump to win on this issue. Two of the right-wing Supreme Court justices have already given judgments in their prior careers that have supported the rights of the individual states to decide how to best protect their ballots. I suspect they will go along with the similar notion - which will mean they will not interfere to put Trump back on the ballot. To do otherwise is going to require some considerable and obvious contortions.
I also expect Trump to fail in a case appealing the outcome in the senior court in Washington DC finding that Trump has no absolute Presidential immunity. Anything else would leave the US Constitution open to utter abuse by a future President, be that Trump or A N Other. Indeed, in the most extreme outcome, Biden could take Trump out and shoot him - and then claim that same immunity. Once Trump has no immunity, his actions on and in the run up to January 6th and the storming of Congress to prevent the certification of the 2000 election leave him very exposed. His co-conspirators have already started taking plea deals. Those deals require them to nail Trump.
He is an old man going to jail. Rightly so. You don't get to try to overthrow an election of the US people, shrug your shoulders and go "Oh well....".
2024 will be a cascading series of disasters for Trump, from which he is unable to escape. They will culminate with him being put in jail for many years. The Republican Party is just going to have to resolve the issue of Donald Trump as best they can. But he will not be their candidate.
It's possible - but he's not going to jail this side of the election. No trial is going to be done soon enough to allow for the three to four months any sentencing process will take.
Which would make things interesting, even if the GOP were to boot him as a candidate.
Here goes my predictions, which are pretty off the cuff rather than the product of deep thought.
1) Whether technical recession or not, economic performance will flat line at the beginning of the year, but pick up a little second half. Inflation will drop to 2% by the summer, and interest rates will come down a little. 3.5% by year end.
2) The UK General Election will be late November/early December. This is the reverse of my betting position, which is for a May Election. If polls start improving then Sunak will hold out for further movement. If they are static or declining further he won't go early, though won't stifle Election talk.
3) The SNP will do badly with 15-25 seats, Lib Dems will be 25-35 seats. Greens will gain vote share but lose their seat, Reform will get no seats and fail to keep their deposit in more than a handful. The Tories will be 175 +/- 50 seats. This puts Lab on 400 +/- 50 seats. I have done these as ranges, but if forced to be more specific would go for the midpoint of each.
4) Putin will win the election in Russia, Modi in India both consolidating their autocracies, Biden-Trump could go either way, but I think Biden will edge it.
5) The Ukraine war will continue as stalemate, with the Ukranians holding on in defence and making it costly for Russia. Ukranian begging will become more desperate for weapons, but financial support will be forthcoming from Europe. Gaza will be a running sore for Israel, and the war likely to expand into West Bank and Southern Lebanon. China will become more bellicose towards Taiwan, but won't invade.
6) Man City will win the League and Leicester will be promoted with a record points total from the Championship. The summer Olympics will be fun, and good public relations for Macron but no obvious successor.
For those of the "glass half empty" persuasion, the nightmare after Christmas!
Trump gets the nom and the EC. Retribution for 2020 is swift, vengeful and violent. The US becomes an autocracy.
China subsumes Taiwan on February 1st 2025.
The Conservatives (not necessarily led by Sunak) sneak a 20 seat green shoots win on a low vote share with 50 plus seats with majorities of less than a thousand in an ultra low turnout New Year 2025 election. After a successful pre-election Christmas Eve 100 seat flight to Rwanda the policy is quietly shelved. The boats keep coming, but a crackdown on legal migration means net migration figures reduce to less than 100,000. Staff shortages mean the NHS backlog is struggling to improve. Enough are dying whilst on the list to allow the figures to appear to be better than they otherwise might look. The NHS is sold to Cedars Sinai Healthcare for a nominal £10. Several Cabinet Ministers' wives are made Executive Directors. Richard Burgon becomes LOTO and as a result the Conservative poll lead extends to plus 20. Reform beat Labour into fourth place in the 2025 locals.
Ukraine grinds on until Trump throws them to the dogs on January 21st 2025. The USA leaves NATO.
Palestinians are cleared from the river to the sea. Netanyahu remains PM. Lebanon becomes the new Gaza. The world looks on and does nothing. Jared Kushner is appointed Secretary of State.
I'm going to be quite contrarian on Trump. He will NOT be the Republican candidate in 2024.
This month is going to be personally traumatic for him. He is facing two judgments where he has already lost and the issue is damages to be awarded against him. The New York case has already found his businesses guilty of systemic fraud. The issue is the award to the state. This will be not less than $500m IMHO - and might easily be closer to a billion. Much as Trump will rail it is "the system out to get him", the message will start to sink in, the glitter rub off - he is a conman whose claims to be some great commercial mind will start to fall apart. This fall from grace argument is one the media loves to run with.(And there could still be more criminal charges in the fallout of this judgment.)
Trump will not be free to do business in New York. The judgment will be excoriating on his lack of credibility in his testimony and the sheer nastiness of the way he conducted himself. Trump will not remotely have the money to meet the judgment (and potential mega-donors will back off bankrolling him because the narrative against him has turned so negative). He will lodge appeals, but they will swiftly come to nothing. The fire sale of his assets will then start. We will see whether Mar-a-Lago is really worth the billion or billion and half Trump claims.
As well as his business court case, he is also going to see what the defamation judgment is going to cost him against E. Jean Carroll. It won't be the $148m Rudi Giuliani was hit with, but it will likely be tens of millions at the time the New York case has taken funds away. It will also remind the voters what a shit he is. Especially women voters.
Whilst some voters will stick with him, and despite these being civil cases and not a criminal, it will cause a material - 5%+ of his support - to back away and not return.
There are two ways Trump could react. He could rant and scream and in the process, look really quite deranged. Or he could be uncharacteristically silent.
However, these are just the personal life problems impinging on his persona projected to the voters. His bigger issues will be his political ones - staying on the ballot and maintaining his claim to absolute Presidential immunity for his actions relating to overthrow the 2000 election result.
My feeling also. Only slightly influenced by my having been laying him for both Nom and Pres for more than a year.
If he doesn't get it, people will be saying - afterwards - 'of course someone like Trump was never going to get a second chance', 'of course America was always going to come to its senses'. Which is often a clue as to how relatively likely such an outcome may be.
Part 2: I expect Colorado and Maine to be joined this month by other states moving to exclude him from the ballot. These will create a need for the issue to be urgently reviewed by the Supreme Court. Controversially perhaps, I do not expect Trump to win on this issue. Two of the right-wing Supreme Court justices have already given judgments in their prior careers that have supported the rights of the individual states to decide how to best protect their ballots. I suspect they will go along with the similar notion - which will mean they will not interfere to put Trump back on the ballot. To do otherwise is going to require some considerable and obvious contortions.
I also expect Trump to fail in a case appealing the outcome in the senior court in Washington DC finding that Trump has no absolute Presidential immunity. Anything else would leave the US Constitution open to utter abuse by a future President, be that Trump or A N Other. Indeed, in the most extreme outcome, Biden could take Trump out and shoot him - and then claim that same immunity. Once Trump has no immunity, his actions on and in the run up to January 6th and the storming of Congress to prevent the certification of the 2000 election leave him very exposed. His co-conspirators have already started taking plea deals. Those deals require them to nail Trump.
He is an old man going to jail. Rightly so. You don't get to try to overthrow an election of the US people, shrug your shoulders and go "Oh well....".
2024 will be a cascading series of disasters for Trump, from which he is unable to escape. They will culminate with him being put in jail for many years. The Republican Party is just going to have to resolve the issue of Donald Trump as best they can. But he will not be their candidate.
It's possible - but he's not going to jail this side of the election. No trial is going to be done soon enough to allow for the three to four months any sentencing process will take.
Which would make things interesting, even if the GOP were to boot him as a candidate.
Being found guilty of a criminal charge - even if sentence isn't confirmed - will be enough to turn Trump into toast.
And his Georgia trial will happen this year. One which the new Republican candidate cannot pardon him for, as it is not federal.
Part 2: I expect Colorado and Maine to be joined this month by other states moving to exclude him from the ballot. These will create a need for the issue to be urgently reviewed by the Supreme Court. Controversially perhaps, I do not expect Trump to win on this issue. Two of the right-wing Supreme Court justices have already given judgments in their prior careers that have supported the rights of the individual states to decide how to best protect their ballots. I suspect they will go along with the similar notion - which will mean they will not interfere to put Trump back on the ballot. To do otherwise is going to require some considerable and obvious contortions.
I also expect Trump to fail in a case appealing the outcome in the senior court in Washington DC finding that Trump has no absolute Presidential immunity. Anything else would leave the US Constitution open to utter abuse by a future President, be that Trump or A N Other. Indeed, in the most extreme outcome, Biden could take Trump out and shoot him - and then claim that same immunity. Once Trump has no immunity, his actions on and in the run up to January 6th and the storming of Congress to prevent the certification of the 2000 election leave him very exposed. His co-conspirators have already started taking plea deals. Those deals require them to nail Trump.
He is an old man going to jail. Rightly so. You don't get to try to overthrow an election of the US people, shrug your shoulders and go "Oh well....".
2024 will be a cascading series of disasters for Trump, from which he is unable to escape. They will culminate with him being put in jail for many years. The Republican Party is just going to have to resolve the issue of Donald Trump as best they can. But he will not be their candidate.
A brave and clear prediction. Fair play to you for being bold.
I wish I had your faith that the american legal system can deliver in time to stop a Trump presidency. The other issue is what happens to civil order if he is barred by supreme court from running in a number of states?
Well, they have the advantage that, whereas the rioters last time naively thought that Trump's incitement would give them some kind of protection, the next lot know their likely fate, being able to see the ruined lives and long sentences dished out to some of the first lot.
In other news, if it looks like Labour will stroll it in England, it will likely reduce the pressure on Scots to abandon the SNP.
Comments
https://twitter.com/AlastairMeeks/status/1741475829488496707
https://twitter.com/12Xpert/status/1741496456815530399
Been to the best firework display I have ever seen and it wasn't a professional one. Thousands on the promenade at Southwold beach in front of the beach huts. Church bells ringing, most of the huts open and ever 20 metres or so people on the beach letting off expensive fireworks. The combined effort of dozens of parallel displays was amazing and when fireworks hit the sea they exploded spectacularly.
Nearly missed it as I had a very, very boozy and long lunch in Walberswick.
Unless there is a decision before Friday, he will have missed the filing deadline for the primaries and there seems little point even attempting to stand a stooge as a spoiler candidate.
And Happy New Year to all PBers, in the hope your bets are suitably green. Especially @Peter_the_Punter ’s bet with me!
Will be the first year where Labour wins a general election for 19 years... Lets hope they live up to people's hopes, wishes and expectations 🙏
*Hint: Of COURSE they will disappoint *
Why is the Kerch Bridge still standing almost two years into the war? Why are F16s only just starting to dribble into Ukraine? Why aren't Tauruses and ATACMS blowing Russians to Kingdom Come, or at least back to Russia? Why does Ukraine still not have anything like enough shells?
Most other issues are trivial compared to this, where the security of the free world and the credibility of its alliances are at stake.
Happy New Year. Stud!
The best lounge I’ve personally been in is the BA Concorde lounge at LHR
I’ve no doubt the well traveled folk of PB will offer superior examples
But this is notably better and friendlier than Emirates
May 2024 bring you all wealth, health and happiness.
I’m not joking: it exists. BA took me there this year
However I am sure there must be more impressive VIP lounges. Probably in UAE?
Does it still exist?
I accept these are first world issues, compared to, say, Ukraine
Happy New year to all at PB.
The Tories are screwed. Even tax cuts won't save them, only mitigate the disaster.
Obviously its more important than Sudan. One shouldn’t get hysterical
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/24-7-predictions-b768d94e4078
TLDR: December election (argues they won’t choose October as it’s the anniversary of the Trussmageddon), Labour landslide, Trump gets the Nom, Biden wins, Ukraine will struggle on, next New Year will look more precarious than this.
Credible all round, except possibly the election date. And I still think Trump may not make it to the Nom.
I’ve enjoyed a blissful 2 months away, and indeed 2 months away from the News. It has been a wonderful time of renewal.
I hope peeps are well. I expect I won’t spend a lot of time on here until the election, especially if it continues to be filled with Leon’s imho somewhat sad quasi-facebook travelogues.
The flask is good. Right next to me and currently filled with Lavazza coffee because I’m staying at a friend’s.
But please leave out the snide male posturing stuff. You’re better than that, I hope.
You all. Keep it softer and kinder on here you might even see more of us younger females posting on here. Particularly important in the run up to the election when newcomers should be made to feel welcome. It’s a big year for political betting.
I suggest we all need to make radical choices, from micro (eg energy saving) to macro if we care for the Mother Earth which we are currently raping.
If I’m too left-field and feminine for peeps on here I shall stay away but I nevertheless wish you all as Happy a New Year as possible. I was concerned about the health of a few regulars on here when I last posted 2 months ago. I hope they are okay? xx
For people engaged in politics, I agree with him that the trend toward tactical voting will be very powerful this time; I feel it myself. The type of educated switched-on voters the LibDems need are those most likely to dig out the data and make sensible choices.
What I don't know is whether there'll be the same push toward tactical voting among those not really paying attention? That may depend especially on how effective the local LibDem campaigns are - after the scandalous shambles of 2019, one does wonder. Hopefully the idiots behind that campaign are all sacked, or locked in the wardrobe.
Here are my predictions:
(1) The Iowa caucuses break conclusively for Trump, with Hayley and DeSantis a long way behind in second and third. Holding out hope for New Hampshire, Hayley stays in, while Ramaswamy and DeSantis drop out and endorse Trump. (Christie stays in, but who cares.)
(2) Hayley runs Trump pretty close in New Hampshire, but doesn't get the win she needs. After a poor performance in South Carolina, she too drops out. Trump is now the presumptive nominee.
(3) The Georgia case gathers steam, with more and more defendants flipping. Looking to avoid a jail term, even Giuliani takes a plea bargain. But Trump is adept at delay, and it becomes clear the trial will not take place until the election campaign is well under way.
(4) Economies - in the US, the UK and even Europe - perform OK after a weak Q4 2023. Inflation is falling, interest rates also start to decline, and non-OPEC, non-Russian energy production keeps rising.
(5) This does little to help Sunak in the May locals, which are monumentally poor. While the Conservatives avoid falling to third in vote share, they lose more than half their Councillors, and almost all their Councils.
(6) There is much talk of a leadership challenge, but the letters simply don't arrive. No-one wants to be Prime Minister for inevitable schellicking. Despite progress on the economy, and a continued decline in the number of boats arriving, the Conservative Party continues to be more interested in civil war.
(7) Into the void steps Reform. Farage and Tice are a constant thorn in Sunak's side, and they bring on board a number of big (formerly Tory donors) such as Lord Bamford.
(8) The US Presidential election is Trump v Biden. And it becomes rapidly clear that neither of them are the politicians (or brains) they once were. Sadly, despite this embarrassing gerontocracy, there is no credible third party challenge.
(9) Abroad, Ukraine (despite a lack of support from the West) holds on. Russia lacks the forces to make a large scale breakthrough, despite throwing hundreds of thousands more conscripts into battle. Putin hopes for a Trump victory that would fracture the Western alliance.
(10) He doesn't get it. Although Trump's vote share rises markedly, he is still just behind Biden, and the electoral college is not kind. While Trumps wins Nevada and Arizona, this isn't enough, as Biden ekes out narrow victories in the rustbelt and Georgia. It's a 286-252 Democratic victory.
(11) By a even narrower margin, the Democrats win back the House.
(12) In the UK, the Conservatives lose the 21 November General Election. While Starmer's 11 point lead is unexceptional, he does very well in Scotland and he benefits from tactical voting. He ends up with a 102 majority.
(13) The LibDems get 14% of the vote and 27 seats.
The sky is bright and clear here, and it doesn’t appear to be windy. I hope that is a sign of things to come!
Could our collective resolution be for civilised discussion this year? Please!
Although Leon must be allowed his travelogues!
I agree that falling inflation will give economies and markets a lift during the early part of the year, but wouldn't underestimate the chance of a serious wobble later in the year due to financial indebtedness and political instability.
As Meeks says, Sunak's problem is inexperience and lack of proven resilience, and the Tories' problem is that their most (internally) favoured replacements are all less experienced still.
Reform is your left field one, that doesn't sit happily with your electoral prediction. If Farage/Tice really gets off the ground, surely the Tories should be near-destroyed? Personally I can't see Farage being bothered to make the effort; the Tory-hatred seems to be coming mostly from Tice and Oakeshott, who don't call the shots. Farage is more likely to threaten but not deliver, perhaps for a deeply cynical peerage? Delivered by Sunak's exit honours list.
WW1 suggests that a longstanding long-front stalemate can collapse suddenly and unexpectedly. Sadly.
Just read Meek's predictions, and they aren't that different from mine, except that he expects a much larger Labour majority.
Ukraine is on their own land , with short supply lines, fighting for their own country.
Russia - like Germany in 1918 - was not.
Shame he never found much useful to do with it.
If the Toriss get 150 seats they would be exceeding my expectations.
After all what can (and will) they offer most voters - more of the same isn’t great. Heck I expect triple lock pensioners will be looking at elderly social care and panicking at the lack of accessibility
A happy new year to you and all my fellow posters
This is the year I have my 80th, my granddaughter is 21, and we have our diamond wedding anniversary in May
I remain very much under the weather as I await my urgent pacemaker operation and hope the consultant finds a time in his busy calendar soon
Indeed I have purchased a smaller car for when I can drive again and so my wife will find it easier to drive as well
This is the year the chaotic and idiotic conservative party are sent deservedly into opposition and Starmer and labour begin a 5 year term with a good working majority and I wish them well
I did read some of the comments at midnight, and it is remarkable how many good wishes from across the divide were expressed and it speaks highly of the quality of posters and the respect the forum has for its administrators that I would gentle suggest, and agree with you, that unnecessary language is not in the spirit of this forum
What a betting fest 2024 looks to be.
One question the 2024 elections here and in the US should definitely answer for us- how much are election results about the brilliance of the winner, and how much are they about the awfulness of the runner up? If you think the first, then the Conservatives might do OKish, because Starmer is meh. If it's the second, it's going to be a terrrrrrrrrr... rrrible night for the Tories.
Happy New Year!
New builds weren't an option as that would have involved fucking over Bahrain (can't do that because, unlike Ukraine, they actually have money) or the Breakaway Province of China (can't do that because China is the next away fixture).
A lot of the hesitancy over weapons now is because they are coming out of reserves and the services involved are taking the balance sheet hit with no replacements in sight. The RAF gave away a shit load of Storm Shadows on the understanding that they would be replaced by Rampage but now the MoD are like "LOL, JK. Maybe later."
That explains the 2019 result (Boris offered an end to the logjam and wasn’t Corbyn).
Equally it means that the Tory issue will be getting their voters out the door and an autumn election is going to make that impossible as the canvassers won’t be interested in doing so - having lost their seats in May.
Hershey is being sued by a Florida woman who says its holiday-themed Reese’s peanut butter candies lack the artistic details shown on the packaging that make them worth buying.
https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1741700801314075051
Robert Peston
@Peston
After the former most powerful government official has asserted that the UK’s nuclear weapons and defence capability is dangerously fragile, the government will surely have to make a statement to parliament. See attached from
@Dominic2306
1) Whether technical recession or not, economic performance will flat line at the beginning of the year, but pick up a little second half. Inflation will drop to 2% by the summer, and interest rates will come down a little. 3.5% by year end.
2) The UK General Election will be late November/early December. This is the reverse of my betting position, which is for a May Election. If polls start improving then Sunak will hold out for further movement. If they are static or declining further he won't go early, though won't stifle Election talk.
3) The SNP will do badly with 15-25 seats, Lib Dems will be 25-35 seats. Greens will gain vote share but lose their seat, Reform will get no seats and fail to keep their deposit in more than a handful. The Tories will be 175 +/- 50 seats. This puts Lab on 400 +/- 50 seats. I have done these as ranges, but if forced to be more specific would go for the midpoint of each.
4) Putin will win the election in Russia, Modi in India both consolidating their autocracies, Biden-Trump could go either way, but I think Biden will edge it.
5) The Ukraine war will continue as stalemate, with the Ukranians holding on in defence and making it costly for Russia. Ukranian begging will become more desperate for weapons, but financial support will be forthcoming from Europe. Gaza will be a running sore for Israel, and the war likely to expand into West Bank and Southern Lebanon. China will become more bellicose towards Taiwan, but won't invade.
6) Man City will win the League and Leicester will be promoted with a record points total from the Championship. The summer Olympics will be fun, and good public relations for Macron but no obvious successor.
Big Rish doesn't give a fuck about the state of the tory party after the GE as he will be off to be Musk's pool boy at his third best house. So any consideration about how the result will be worse in December is irrelevant.
A Russian who had pissed off Mad Vlad dying in a mysterious accident not involving a window was an extremely surprising event.
Economy - nothing much is going to change. Big Labour lead through to polling day - no change. SNP continue to flag. Trump nomination, Sunak leadership, no change. Biden v Trump - no change, Biden wins again, Ukraine, no change, etc.
It's true that people often make dramatic short-run predictions when life then tends to continue mostly the same. But History also suggests that something unexpected is going to happen and there will be some change!
This month is going to be personally traumatic for him. He is facing two judgments where he has already lost and the issue is damages to be awarded against him. The New York case has already found his businesses guilty of systemic fraud. The issue is the award to the state. This will be not less than $500m IMHO - and might easily be closer to a billion. Much as Trump will rail it is "the system out to get him", the message will start to sink in, the glitter rub off - he is a conman whose claims to be some great commercial mind will start to fall apart. This fall from grace argument is one the media loves to run with.(And there could still be more criminal charges in the fallout of this judgment.)
Trump will not be free to do business in New York. The judgment will be excoriating on his lack of credibility in his testimony and the sheer nastiness of the way he conducted himself. Trump will not remotely have the money to meet the judgment (and potential mega-donors will back off bankrolling him because the narrative against him has turned so negative). He will lodge appeals, but they will swiftly come to nothing. The fire sale of his assets will then start. We will see whether Mar-a-Lago is really worth the billion or billion and half Trump claims.
As well as his business court case, he is also going to see what the defamation judgment is going to cost him against E. Jean Carroll. It won't be the $148m Rudi Giuliani was hit with, but it will likely be tens of millions at the time the New York case has taken funds away. It will also remind the voters what a shit he is. Especially women voters.
Whilst some voters will stick with him, and despite these being civil cases and not a criminal, it will cause a material - 5%+ of his support - to back away and not return.
There are two ways Trump could react. He could rant and scream and in the process, look really quite deranged. Or he could be uncharacteristically silent.
However, these are just the personal life problems impinging on his persona projected to the voters. His bigger issues will be his political ones - staying on the ballot and maintaining his claim to absolute Presidential immunity for his actions relating to overthrow the 2000 election result.
Or of course, they’ll double down into more extremism.
Incidentally, I’m (probably unjustifiably) hoping for a ‘Rejoin the EU’ movement to be much more evident later this year.
I also expect Trump to fail in a case appealing the outcome in the senior court in Washington DC finding that Trump has no absolute Presidential immunity. Anything else would leave the US Constitution open to utter abuse by a future President, be that Trump or A N Other. Indeed, in the most extreme outcome, Biden could take Trump out and shoot him - and then claim that same immunity. Once Trump has no immunity, his actions on and in the run up to January 6th and the storming of Congress to prevent the certification of the 2000 election leave him very exposed. His co-conspirators have already started taking plea deals. Those deals require them to nail Trump.
He is an old man going to jail. Rightly so. You don't get to try to overthrow an election of the US people, shrug your shoulders and go "Oh well....".
2024 will be a cascading series of disasters for Trump, from which he is unable to escape. They will culminate with him being put in jail for many years. The Republican Party is just going to have to resolve the issue of Donald Trump as best they can. But he will not be their candidate.
ETA a month longer in Downing Street; another Christmas at Chequers; and a campaign over Christmas and the New Year holidays will neutralise the opposition parties' advantage in the ground game.
I wish I had your faith that the american legal system can deliver in time to stop a Trump presidency. The other issue is what happens to civil order if he is barred by supreme court from running in a number of states?
I think that the worst Trumps many issues will be delayed until after the election.
Yes, trying to decide the election in courthouses before the vote, will almost certainly result in some sort of civil unrest.
Following the return of Cameron and the abortive return of Cummings, after disastrous local elections Sunak has a seance and offers Margaret Thatcher the Home office, Ted Heath Brexit minister and Disraeli levelling up. Each refuse.
Meanwhile the new host of supermarket sweep Matt Hancock announces in the Beano that he also unwilling to serve.
2019 Boris bursting back on the scene would shake things up fascinatingly. 2024 Boris wouldn't.
- May GE in the UK following a mildly promising set of economic data and decent spring polls for the Tories. SNP will do a bit better than expected and Lib Dems in line with expectations, for once (25 seats). Lab majority 120.
- Biden steps down following a stroke and his successor Pete Buttegieg faces and narrowly beats Trump in November. More constitutional shenanigans
- A significant natural disaster, the biggest since Covid, will dominate international news at some point, pushing Gaza, Trump and Ukraine off the front pages.
- It will be by some distance the hottest year on earth in recorded history thanks to the El Niño peaking right now
- Argentina will actually be quite interesting to watch under Milei.
Which would make things interesting, even if the GOP were to boot him as a candidate.
Trump gets the nom and the EC. Retribution for 2020 is swift, vengeful and violent. The US becomes an autocracy.
China subsumes Taiwan on February 1st 2025.
The Conservatives (not necessarily led by Sunak) sneak a 20 seat green shoots win on a low vote share with 50 plus seats with majorities of less than a thousand in an ultra low turnout New Year 2025 election. After a successful pre-election Christmas Eve 100 seat flight to Rwanda the policy is quietly shelved. The boats keep coming, but a crackdown on legal migration means net migration figures reduce to less than 100,000. Staff shortages mean the NHS backlog is struggling to improve. Enough are dying whilst on the list to allow the figures to appear to be better than they otherwise might look. The NHS is sold to Cedars Sinai Healthcare for a nominal £10. Several Cabinet Ministers' wives are made Executive Directors. Richard Burgon becomes LOTO and as a result the Conservative poll lead extends to plus 20. Reform beat Labour into fourth place in the 2025 locals.
Ukraine grinds on until Trump throws them to the dogs on January 21st 2025. The USA leaves NATO.
Palestinians are cleared from the river to the sea. Netanyahu remains PM. Lebanon becomes the new Gaza. The world looks on and does nothing. Jared Kushner is appointed Secretary of State.
Villa win the 2023/24 Premiership title.
If he doesn't get it, people will be saying - afterwards - 'of course someone like Trump was never going to get a second chance', 'of course America was always going to come to its senses'. Which is often a clue as to how relatively likely such an outcome may be.
And his Georgia trial will happen this year. One which the new Republican candidate cannot pardon him for, as it is not federal.
In other news, if it looks like Labour will stroll it in England, it will likely reduce the pressure on Scots to abandon the SNP.