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Just imagine if Boris Johnson was still PM – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    edited November 2023
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Thoughts and prayers with HYUFD


    So Sanchez and his minority Socialist government are now puppets of Catalan nationalists in order to hold onto power.

    That will also likely lead to a further backlash to the PP and Vox from Spanish patriots.

    What could have happened here in the UK in 2015 had Ed Miliband led a minority Labour government reliant on SNP support has now literally happened in Spain
    That door swings both ways. 2017 May coalitioned with the DUP.
    The DUP are Unionists
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,028



    Unless they have air superiority. So - when will the F-16s actually turn up?

    They are currently in hangars in Skrydstrup, Denmark and Charleroi, Belgium.

    The plan of record was to deliver 6 this year, 8 in 2024 and 5 in 2025. That 6 this year is looking very unlikely. I expect there is a great deal of arguing about money going on behind the scenes.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,952
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    How may US states would vote against abortion if they had a vote on it like Ohio did yesterday?

    Probably Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky and Louisiana, Mississippi, North Dakota, South Carolina, Tennessee, Utah and West Virginia and maybe Missouri, South Dakota and Texas

    https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/religious-landscape-study/compare/views-about-abortion/by/state/
    I was going to say "the Confederacy" but then I saw the Dakotas.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    How may US states would vote against abortion if they had a vote on it like Ohio did yesterday?

    Probably Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky and Louisiana, Mississippi, North Dakota, South Carolina, Tennessee, Utah and West Virginia and maybe Missouri, South Dakota and Texas

    https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/religious-landscape-study/compare/views-about-abortion/by/state/
    I was going to say "the Confederacy" but then I saw the Dakotas.
    Florida and Virginia are also pro choice on abortion
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,907

    Death of local news goes on:


    The UK’s largest commercial news publisher Reach has announced massive further redundancies, with 450 jobs going.

    The restructure will see the publisher merge print and digital teams on its national and regional titles in a drive toward “future audience-led publishing”. Some of the newer regional “Live” websites are to be closed.

    https://pressgazette.co.uk/news/reach-450-redundancies/



    My local paper had been going for more than 200 years and then closed during Covid. They promised to start it again, but haven't. Disappointing.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    Andy_JS said:

    Death of local news goes on:


    The UK’s largest commercial news publisher Reach has announced massive further redundancies, with 450 jobs going.

    The restructure will see the publisher merge print and digital teams on its national and regional titles in a drive toward “future audience-led publishing”. Some of the newer regional “Live” websites are to be closed.

    https://pressgazette.co.uk/news/reach-450-redundancies/



    My local paper had been going for more than 200 years and then closed during Covid. They promised to start it again, but haven't. Disappointing.
    Epping Forest has 'Everything Epping Forest', a local news and information service on Facebook and Twitter set up by a local journalist
    https://www.facebook.com/groups/46353827290/?locale=en_GB
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,952

    Death of local news goes on:

    The UK’s largest commercial news publisher Reach has announced massive further redundancies, with 450 jobs going.

    The restructure will see the publisher merge print and digital teams on its national and regional titles in a drive toward “future audience-led publishing”. Some of the newer regional “Live” websites are to be closed.

    https://pressgazette.co.uk/news/reach-450-redundancies/

    Damn. Bits of history fissioning off, like an ice floe. We are losing our ability to hold information, bit by bit...
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    One of history's great sliding doors moments...



    Second World War tweets from 1939
    @RealTimeWWII
    ·
    3h
    Adolf Hitler is beginning a speech in the Bürgerbräukeller beer hall, Munich, to celebrate anniversary of attempted Nazi coup (the "Beer Hall Putsch") in 1923. In the pillar behind him is a concealed bomb, set to go off in just over an hour.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,991

    Death of local news goes on:


    The UK’s largest commercial news publisher Reach has announced massive further redundancies, with 450 jobs going.

    The restructure will see the publisher merge print and digital teams on its national and regional titles in a drive toward “future audience-led publishing”. Some of the newer regional “Live” websites are to be closed.

    https://pressgazette.co.uk/news/reach-450-redundancies/



    No money in news generally, but you really do need local news. If for nothing else it actually helps with a sense of local community in this disconnected world. And people really need to know what is going on!
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,952
    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    How may US states would vote against abortion if they had a vote on it like Ohio did yesterday?

    Probably Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky and Louisiana, Mississippi, North Dakota, South Carolina, Tennessee, Utah and West Virginia and maybe Missouri, South Dakota and Texas

    https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/religious-landscape-study/compare/views-about-abortion/by/state/
    I was going to say "the Confederacy" but then I saw the Dakotas.
    Florida and Virginia are also pro choice on abortion
    I saw that (Florida) earlier and I don't know how to interpret it. Is it:

    1. A real phenomenon. It is pro-choice
    2. A mirage. It is pro-life but appears pro-choice temporarily until court cases are resolved
    3. An artefact. It is a measurement error

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    edited November 2023
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    How may US states would vote against abortion if they had a vote on it like Ohio did yesterday?

    Probably Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky and Louisiana, Mississippi, North Dakota, South Carolina, Tennessee, Utah and West Virginia and maybe Missouri, South Dakota and Texas

    https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/religious-landscape-study/compare/views-about-abortion/by/state/
    I was going to say "the Confederacy" but then I saw the Dakotas.
    Florida and Virginia are also pro choice on abortion
    I saw that (Florida) earlier and I don't know how to interpret it. Is it:

    1. A real phenomenon. It is pro-choice
    2. A mirage. It is pro-life but appears pro-choice temporarily until court cases are resolved
    3. An artefact. It is a measurement error

    Probably 1, lots of rich liberals in Florida and it is a swing state not a solid red state
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    Thoughts and prayers with HYUFD


    So Sanchez and his minority Socialist government are now puppets of Catalan nationalists in order to hold onto power.

    That will also likely lead to a further backlash to the PP and Vox from Spanish patriots.

    What could have happened here in the UK in 2015 had Ed Miliband led a minority Labour government reliant on SNP support has now literally happened in Spain
    I do enjoy your ignorance of Spanish politics. Sanchez has done a deal to get elected PM, not for a programme of government. Junts has no power to bring him down once he is PM. They cease to have leverage over him. Hence the hard bargaining now. The Spanish system is not comparable to the UK’s.

  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,792
    No surprise that the 'states rights' thing was bullshit from the start.

    J.D. Vance, the Ohio GOP senator, says Republicans need to shift their approach on abortion and begin to embrace federal legislation -- namely a 15-week ban with exceptions.

    "We can't give into the idea that the federal Congress has no role in this matter," he told us

    https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1722371723868156346
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,952
    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    How may US states would vote against abortion if they had a vote on it like Ohio did yesterday?

    Probably Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky and Louisiana, Mississippi, North Dakota, South Carolina, Tennessee, Utah and West Virginia and maybe Missouri, South Dakota and Texas

    https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/religious-landscape-study/compare/views-about-abortion/by/state/
    I was going to say "the Confederacy" but then I saw the Dakotas.
    Florida and Virginia are also pro choice on abortion
    I saw that (Florida) earlier and I don't know how to interpret it. Is it:

    1. A real phenomenon. It is pro-choice
    2. A mirage. It is pro-life but appears pro-choice temporarily until court cases are resolved
    3. An artefact. It is a measurement error

    Probably 1, lots of rich liberals in Florida and it is a swing state not a solid red state
    Possibly, but rich people tend to be older people and hence less likely to be pregnant/impregnate somebody. Plus the influx of Hispanics who tend to be Catholic would make it more anti-abortion. It could be part of the trend where the US is becoming less religious, but...

    ...well in the end if it's happening, it's happening. Reality does not bend to my will. But it does puzzle me.
  • Options
    Nigelb said:

    No surprise that the 'states rights' thing was bullshit from the start.

    J.D. Vance, the Ohio GOP senator, says Republicans need to shift their approach on abortion and begin to embrace federal legislation -- namely a 15-week ban with exceptions.

    "We can't give into the idea that the federal Congress has no role in this matter," he told us

    https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1722371723868156346

    Trumpsters worried this abortion stuff will hit their man in 2024. Fear in the nostrils.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,792
    LOL

    All I say say is Marge Greene did a really long thread this morning with her analysis of what went wrong and how to fix it and I hope every Republican candidate follows her advice to the letter.
    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1722261902183813504
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,316
    edited November 2023
    kle4 said:

    Death of local news goes on:


    The UK’s largest commercial news publisher Reach has announced massive further redundancies, with 450 jobs going.

    The restructure will see the publisher merge print and digital teams on its national and regional titles in a drive toward “future audience-led publishing”. Some of the newer regional “Live” websites are to be closed.

    https://pressgazette.co.uk/news/reach-450-redundancies/



    No money in news generally, but you really do need local news. If for nothing else it actually helps with a sense of local community in this disconnected world. And people really need to know what is going on!
    How to fund it though?

    Internet killed classified ads which paid for local journalism.

    Pick up a local paper 30 years ago and there was pages of the stuff - 2nd hand cars, jobs etc etc..
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,907
    John Gray's latest piece in the New Statesman.

    "Progressives dream of tyranny
    Millions of young people identify with movements that repress the freedoms they take for granted.
    By John Gray"

    https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2023/11/post-democratic-government-wang-huning-china
  • Options
    Andy_JS said:

    John Gray's latest piece in the New Statesman.

    "Progressives dream of tyranny
    Millions of young people identify with movements that repress the freedoms they take for granted.
    By John Gray"

    https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2023/11/post-democratic-government-wang-huning-china

    Liberty involves grey and not black and white answers and compromise and shit like that.

    And it seems today's social media kids can't abide that kind of messy uncertain world.
  • Options
    Andy_JS said:

    John Gray's latest piece in the New Statesman.

    "Progressives dream of tyranny
    Millions of young people identify with movements that repress the freedoms they take for granted.
    By John Gray"

    https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2023/11/post-democratic-government-wang-huning-china

    Note that young people are pulling away in droves from Biden according to this week's Siena college poll. They want to live under Trump's authoritarian government.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,991

    kle4 said:

    Death of local news goes on:


    The UK’s largest commercial news publisher Reach has announced massive further redundancies, with 450 jobs going.

    The restructure will see the publisher merge print and digital teams on its national and regional titles in a drive toward “future audience-led publishing”. Some of the newer regional “Live” websites are to be closed.

    https://pressgazette.co.uk/news/reach-450-redundancies/



    No money in news generally, but you really do need local news. If for nothing else it actually helps with a sense of local community in this disconnected world. And people really need to know what is going on!
    How to fund it though?

    Internet killed classified ads which paid for local journalism.

    Pick up a local paper 30 years ago and there was pages of the stuff - 2nd hand cars, jobs etc etc..
    I think it's dead. Even I get most of my news for free. The government funding local democracy reporters was a good idea, but I don't think it will save things.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,060
    According to Marjorie Taylor Greene, the Republicans had a poor night last night because they didn't concentrate enough on abortion:

    https://twitter.com/RepMTG/status/1722257481605448152
  • Options
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    How may US states would vote against abortion if they had a vote on it like Ohio did yesterday?

    Probably Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky and Louisiana, Mississippi, North Dakota, South Carolina, Tennessee, Utah and West Virginia and maybe Missouri, South Dakota and Texas

    https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/religious-landscape-study/compare/views-about-abortion/by/state/
    I was going to say "the Confederacy" but then I saw the Dakotas.
    Do you think Indiana and Utah were part of the CSA? Of course West Virginia was in, then out!

    Note that Pew numbers cited are from 2014.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131

    HYUFD said:

    Thoughts and prayers with HYUFD


    So Sanchez and his minority Socialist government are now puppets of Catalan nationalists in order to hold onto power.

    That will also likely lead to a further backlash to the PP and Vox from Spanish patriots.

    What could have happened here in the UK in 2015 had Ed Miliband led a minority Labour government reliant on SNP support has now literally happened in Spain
    I do enjoy your ignorance of Spanish politics. Sanchez has done a deal to get elected PM, not for a programme of government. Junts has no power to bring him down once he is PM. They cease to have leverage over him. Hence the hard bargaining now. The Spanish system is not comparable to the UK’s.

    He cannot get a majority for legislation through without Catalan nationalist support given the PP and Vox as the Opposition will now vote consistently against him
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131

    Andy_JS said:

    John Gray's latest piece in the New Statesman.

    "Progressives dream of tyranny
    Millions of young people identify with movements that repress the freedoms they take for granted.
    By John Gray"

    https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2023/11/post-democratic-government-wang-huning-china

    Note that young people are pulling away in droves from Biden according to this week's Siena college poll. They want to live under Trump's authoritarian government.
    Under 30s voted for Biden over Trump in 2020 and on the latest poll more of them prefer RFK to Biden or Trump
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,907
    Does anyone have a close understanding of Portuguese politics? It's interesting that the PM there has just resigned.
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    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,518
    West Virginia became a state when it seceded from the rest of Virginia, because the mountaineers refused to leave the Union.

    State motto: Montani semper liberi

    (One of the saddest things in the US is the damage done to the people of West Virginia, much of it by opiods, recently.)
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,952

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    How may US states would vote against abortion if they had a vote on it like Ohio did yesterday?

    Probably Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky and Louisiana, Mississippi, North Dakota, South Carolina, Tennessee, Utah and West Virginia and maybe Missouri, South Dakota and Texas

    https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/religious-landscape-study/compare/views-about-abortion/by/state/
    I was going to say "the Confederacy" but then I saw the Dakotas.
    Do you think Indiana and Utah were part of the CSA? Of course West Virginia was in, then out!

    Note that Pew numbers cited are from 2014.
    Strangely enough I *was* aware that Utah wasn't in the Confederacy... 😃
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,052
    Andy_JS said:

    Suella has unstoppable momentum at the next Tory leadership contest.

    Does she have any chance of getting into the final 2 among MPs?

    It's a sad reality that she has been the only person prepared to call out the complete double standards of the policing of the anti lockdown marchers and the black lives matter protesters.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,052

    Andy_JS said:

    John Gray's latest piece in the New Statesman.

    "Progressives dream of tyranny
    Millions of young people identify with movements that repress the freedoms they take for granted.
    By John Gray"

    https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2023/11/post-democratic-government-wang-huning-china

    Liberty involves grey and not black and white answers and compromise and shit like that.

    And it seems today's social media kids can't abide that kind of messy uncertain world.
    Like Fukuyama and the late J G Ballard, often praising each others' works, he seems to think that in the end people will find liberal democracy too boring and rebel.
  • Options

    West Virginia became a state when it seceded from the rest of Virginia, because the mountaineers refused to leave the Union.

    State motto: Montani semper liberi

    (One of the saddest things in the US is the damage done to the people of West Virginia, much of it by opiods, recently.)

    As to para #1, more or less. Caveats are
    > West Virginia never seceded from Virginia, not the way VA seceded from USA, by UDI = unilateral declaration of indepencence.
    > Instead, when VA seceded, Unionists quickly declared and established an alternative "loyal" state government, whose writ ran northwestern part of state on or near Ohio River and Pittsburgh, and in Arlington just across the Potomac from Washington DC.
    > Then the loyal, Unionist state government of Virginia gave its consent, as per the US Constitution (sorta) for separation of West Virginia, which was agreed to by US Congress.
    > This was confirmed by popular vote in new WVa.
    > However, boundaries of new state went considerably beyond Unionist area, to the east and south; in fact, in many counties number of votes counted either for or against was zero - because no election was or could be conducted by a parcel of Yankees.
    > In this context, worth noting that available evidence suggests that more men from what is now West Virginia joined the Confederate Army than did the Union Army
    > Why under these circumstances, was WVa created in the first place? Appears to be two main reasons:
    1. Creating 5 electoral votes for . . . wait for it . . . Abraham Lincoln in 1864; and
    2. Safeguarding the main line of the Baltimore and Ohio Railroad, a vital transportation artery from Eastern Seaboard to the Ohio River; indeed boundaries of WVa were expanded as far east as Harper's Ferry expressly for this purpose.

    Also worth nothing, that in aftermath of Civil War at same time as Reconstruction further South, the only way that Republicans could win any elections in West Virginia, was by disenfranchising former Confederate soldiers and officials - only way they could beat the Democrats of that era.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,907

    Andy_JS said:

    Suella has unstoppable momentum at the next Tory leadership contest.

    Does she have any chance of getting into the final 2 among MPs?

    It's a sad reality that she has been the only person prepared to call out the complete double standards of the policing of the anti lockdown marchers and the black lives matter protesters.
    Depends which Tory MPs are left after the election.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,893
    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Thoughts and prayers with HYUFD


    So Sanchez and his minority Socialist government are now puppets of Catalan nationalists in order to hold onto power.

    That will also likely lead to a further backlash to the PP and Vox from Spanish patriots.

    What could have happened here in the UK in 2015 had Ed Miliband led a minority Labour government reliant on SNP support has now literally happened in Spain
    That door swings both ways. 2017 May coalitioned with the DUP.
    The DUP are Unionists
    British nationalists: 'the Tories were puppets of British nationalists in order to hold onto power', is what you mean.
This discussion has been closed.