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Braving a New World – politicalbetting.com

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  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,980
    TimS said:

    The point of inflection will be when the poor of the world head to China to realise their dreams, risk life and limb on boats or clambering over mountains to make a new life there. And when Chinese demographics start to look positive again.

    I was taken aback here in Georgia by a conversation with our taxi driver. He owns a sunflower seed factory. I asked how did he end up doing that. Bought it from his uncle, who sold up, headed to Mexico, illegally crossed the Rio Grande into the US and has lived there undocumented for several years as a taxi driver himself, now applying for a green card.

    People are still drawn in by the American dream, including those like Georgians with visa free holiday travel to the EU. enough to run the gauntlet of people smugglers. As a result the US population pyramid is healthy while most of Eurasia is entering terminal demographic decline.

    This is surely the one hope. Who actually would ever choose, of their own volition, to live in Russia, China, Iran or North Korea (God help us), if they had the alternative choice of a Western democracy. Anyone? Must count for something.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    This is the same stage, as when we got de Kock out in the first over…
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,778
    rcs1000 said:

    If the Conservatives were to lose all their seats, however, he might still be in with a shot.
    You bastard

    Now I’m going to have a nightmare about Jacob Rees-Mogg being the only surviving Tory MP…
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    TimS said:

    The point of inflection will be when the poor of the world head to China to realise their dreams, risk life and limb on boats or clambering over mountains to make a new life there. And when Chinese demographics start to look positive again.

    I was taken aback here in Georgia by a conversation with our taxi driver. He owns a sunflower seed factory. I asked how did he end up doing that. Bought it from his uncle, who sold up, headed to Mexico, illegally crossed the Rio Grande into the US and has lived there undocumented for several years as a taxi driver himself, now applying for a green card.

    People are still drawn in by the American dream, including those like Georgians with visa free holiday travel to the EU. enough to run the gauntlet of people smugglers. As a result the US population pyramid is healthy while most of Eurasia is entering terminal demographic decline.
    Other models are possible. China can be a hegemon without an equivalent "Chinese dream".
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,980

    Secretary of State for Scotland?
    More likely Ian Murray, at least to start with. I don't think Alexander would go straight into cabinet in any event. But he wouldn't be re-entering politics if he wasn't ambitious for office.
  • Its the hope that kills you....
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,463
    A major screw-up by Keir Starmer. He went far too far and now the pendulum has turned decisively in favour of the downtrodden Palestinians he looks at best an opportunist or at worst a LABOUR leader who doesn't give a damn about the human rights of Palestinians.

    BJO for once had it right.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,156

    Its the hope that kills you....

    No, it’s the stress induced aneurism that kills you.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,600
    edited October 2023

    You bastard

    Now I’m going to have a nightmare about Jacob Rees-Mogg being the only surviving Tory MP…
    Based on majority size Mark Francois would be one of the contenders for last Tory standing.

    Sir Gavin Williamson would also be in the mix.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,342
    darkage said:

    It was quite alarming walking to the tube in London last week, there was a protest outside the tube station where people were saying through megaphones 'from the river to the sea Palestine will be free' and 'support the militias', and all this was being tolerated by passers by (admittedly including myself) and the police. So basically denying Israel's right to exist and supporting terrorism.

    So how are you going to feel in that situation if you are Jewish?
    Just seen a video on Twitter of a Central Line tube driver leading a ‘Free Palestine’ chant as he was driving. Can’t believe it can be real, but it seems to be

  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,581
    algarkirk said:

    If the Tories stood a One Nation Tory, capable of understanding Burke and the complexity of running a large country in a progressively Conservative manner, in every seat, they will still lose but would win when they do the same in 2028/9.
    They’d need to find quite a few fresh faces, though, wouldn’t they.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    "the West has decayed from the high point of the 1990s"

    100% true imo.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Other models are possible. China can be a hegemon without an equivalent "Chinese dream".
    It’s definitely true that people are not seeing China as the land of opportunity, in the same way as the US, Canada, Australia, or European countries. There’s Westeners with very specific skills who are making money there, but it’s not the same as for example immigration to the Gulf states.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    maxh said:

    Very much agree. When I say I can see why developing nations might pick such a model, I mean the leaders of those nations not the populace. I’m not advocating such a choice in the slightest.

    Though, in my darker moments, watching Russian aggression, democratic implosion in USA and the rise of populism globally, I do vaguely wonder if things go really south in my lifetime, historians might look back on 21st century and see the Chinese model as the least worst option.

    Obviously a Uighur, Tibetan or (probably) Taiwanese would vociferously disagree.
    I don't see how you can be both pro-democracy and complaining of populism. Democracy and populism are not the same, obviously, but populism is a normal facet of democracy which quite naturally arises whenever political leaders become too detached from the concerns of a large segment of the electorate.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,778
    AnneJGP said:

    Could someone please take pity on my abysmal ignorance and explain what the RNLI is doing in the same list as Russia, Ukraine, China, Israel? Google only returns the Lifeboats people.

    Good evening, everyone.
    I assume he meant DPRK (North Korea) but that’s one hell of an autocorrect!
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607
    HYUFD said:

    “Barring a miracle [of the Tories winning and forming another government], I can’t see Jeremy wanting to be in opposition under a new leader. And if he loses he will be the biggest scalp on election night. That is not a departure anyone would want. People in Surrey are saying he will not stand.”

    Suggestions instead he will go to the Lords and combine that with a return to business
    I don’t blame him. He’s done his bit for his party. Can you imagine the state of the Tories if he hadn’t stabilised the Treasury after Kwarteng?
  • Folded him like a deckchair...
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    Roger said:

    A major screw-up by Keir Starmer. He went far too far and now the pendulum has turned decisively in favour of the downtrodden Palestinians he looks at best an opportunist or at worst a LABOUR leader who doesn't give a damn about the human rights of Palestinians.

    BJO for once had it right.

    Not convinced. Sir K needs centrist votes by the million. Many of them are unimpressed by the Hamas case and cause, make little noise about it, but they vote. I think he has got the difficult balance about right.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607
    kle4 said:

    The looks on their faces. What are they seeing in him that makes them so...yearnful?
    $$$$$$
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,778
    kle4 said:

    Based on majority size Mark Francois would be one of the contenders for last Tory standing.

    Sir Gavin Williamson would also be in the mix.
    Neither of those make my dreams any sweeter…

  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,581
    TimS said:

    The point of inflection will be when the poor of the world head to China to realise their dreams, risk life and limb on boats or clambering over mountains to make a new life there. And when Chinese demographics start to look positive again.

    I was taken aback here in Georgia by a conversation with our taxi driver. He owns a sunflower seed factory. I asked how did he end up doing that. Bought it from his uncle, who sold up, headed to Mexico, illegally crossed the Rio Grande into the US and has lived there undocumented for several years as a taxi driver himself, now applying for a green card.

    People are still drawn in by the American dream, including those like Georgians with visa free holiday travel to the EU. enough to run the gauntlet of people smugglers. As a result the US population pyramid is healthy while most of Eurasia is entering terminal demographic decline.

    Yes I’m sure that’s right, and on balance of probabilities I can see more paths to China imploding than USA or Europe.

    I do wonder how much the reality of undocumented life in USA matches the ‘American dream’ though. To match your anecdote with another, which is at best tangential to the point we’re discussing:

    I lived in Ecuador for a year or so about 12 years back. One of my closest friends there had travelled illegally to UK, worked in London for five years and then had returned home to become an English teacher in his home town. He said that, once the excitement of being in UK had worn off, his life in London was harder and more culturally disjointed than at home.

    Though it must be said his experience in the USA might have been different. Also, it must be said that his home town, Lola, is one of the most beautiful places on the planet. So perhaps he isn’t representative of anything much!
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607
    edited October 2023
    kle4 said:

    The looks on their faces. What are they seeing in him that makes them so...yearnful?
    Edit: deleted - duplicate post.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    AnneJGP said:

    Could someone please take pity on my abysmal ignorance and explain what the RNLI is doing in the same list as Russia, Ukraine, China, Israel? Google only returns the Lifeboats people.

    Good evening, everyone.
    They rescue boat people.
  • England = Wimbledon AFC during crazy game era.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,812

    $$$$$$
    That's more what he sees in them.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,653
    boulay said:

    No, it’s the stress induced aneurism that kills you.
    Thank goodness I just had a quite relaxing Stilton sauce.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,355
    Has Farrell got de Kock out yet?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,653
    edited October 2023
    kle4 said:

    The looks on their faces. What are they seeing in him that makes them so...yearnful?
    Money?

    Edit: more than beaten to it!
  • It's an England crowd out there tonight
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,463
    Excellent header Alanbrooke.

    ..So the Manchester University radical was just hiding.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,355
    Roger said:

    A major screw-up by Keir Starmer. He went far too far and now the pendulum has turned decisively in favour of the downtrodden Palestinians he looks at best an opportunist or at worst a LABOUR leader who doesn't give a damn about the human rights of Palestinians.

    BJO for once had it right.

    Classic Rogerdamus.
  • England = Wimbledon AFC during crazy game era.

    Crazy Gang era
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    Other models are possible. China can be a hegemon without an equivalent "Chinese dream".
    The rise of a lot of 'great powers' has previously been based on slavery, genocide, colonialism... Nothing is going to stop China following some variation of the same path.

    In this context it is quite astounding how people in the west, particularly the anglosphere, go on and on about slavery, colonialism and genocide that took place many generations previously and was subsequently disowned and abolished, but has nothing to say about the modern day equivalent in China and other parts of the developing world. The same people who live in a society that is heavily indebted due to overconsumption yet want to spent vast amounts of money on 'reparations' to resolve historic grievances. It seems pretty likely to me that a society built on this type of introspection will just get wiped out. The header goes on about politicians reconnecting with voters... well the way I see it that is what Trump is doing, and that is why a lot of people vote for him - as an alternative to inevitable failure.



  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,774
    Dura_Ace said:

    I mean, I greatly enjoyed it at the time but Iraq 2 was surely the greatest strategic blunder of the last century. It was completely unnecessary and surely marks the start of the decline of the west.
    We disagree on most things, but on this, totally agree.
  • England giving away too many penalties.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233
    maxh said:

    Yes I’m sure that’s right, and on balance of probabilities I can see more paths to China imploding than USA or Europe.

    I do wonder how much the reality of undocumented life in USA matches the ‘American dream’ though. To match your anecdote with another, which is at best tangential to the point we’re discussing:

    I lived in Ecuador for a year or so about 12 years back. One of my closest friends there had travelled illegally to UK, worked in London for five years and then had returned home to become an English teacher in his home town. He said that, once the excitement of being in UK had worn off, his life in London was harder and more culturally disjointed than at home.

    Though it must be said his experience in the USA might have been different. Also, it must be said that his home town, Lola, is one of the most beautiful places on the planet. So perhaps he isn’t representative of anything much!
    The disconnect he speaks of is common among immigrants. In most cases they come from a mono culture to a … multi culture.

    There was some interesting research on how this affects people from various cultures. The Islamist retreat to the 14th cent in the face of their sisters wearing makeup and their best friend marrying “out” is a standard trope. There are others.

    Some embrace what can see like chaos. Others hunger for the simplicity of one religion, one nation, one culture… hmmm could make a catchy slogan in the right language.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    England giving away too many penalties.

    That could have been written at any time in the last two decades.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,463

    Classic Rogerdamus.
    To lose 23 resigning Labour councillors looks like carelessness
  • George Young as well, I think, he may have been permanent attending Dave's cabinet.
    Yes, George Young was both Leader of the House and Chief Whip under Cameron having served as Transport Secretary under Major.

    What’s really interesting are those individuals that populated the top ranks of Cameron’s ministry who all had government experience from the Major administration. From memory, the list included Fox, Gillan, Maude, Willetts, Fallon, McLoughlin and Strathclyde.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,266
    On multiculturalism: My forthright opinion is that whether it can work or not depends.

    Two examples where it has worked: First, the Amish. They settled in Pennsylvania because the Quakers there were also pacifists. They might well have failed in New England (Puritans), Maryland (Catholics), or Virginia (Episcopalians). (Some of them helped my borther in Colorado build a house last year, and a Pennsylvania friend replace a roof this year.)

    Second, the Irish, Italians, and Poles. It took time, but these three groups now generally get along in our big cities, and often intermarry. As in the first example, the groups shared many religious beliefs from the beginning.

    And when the incoming groups have radically different beliefs? If they are willing to "convert", then it may work. Sometimes that conversion is literal; a few years ago I read about a group of refugees from the Middle East who, living in Germany, asked to be instructed in Lutheranism, so they could fit in.

    (Fiji is an example of where multiculturalism has not worked; the immigrants from India and their descendants have not fit in well. There are many other such example.)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233
    darkage said:

    The rise of a lot of 'great powers' has previously been based on slavery, genocide, colonialism... Nothing is going to stop China following some variation of the same path.

    In this context it is quite astounding how people in the west, particularly the anglosphere, go on and on about slavery, colonialism and genocide that took place many generations previously and was subsequently disowned and abolished, but has nothing to say about the modern day equivalent in China and other parts of the developing world. The same people who live in a society that is heavily indebted due to overconsumption yet want to spent vast amounts of money on 'reparations' to resolve historic grievances. It seems pretty likely to me that a society built on this type of introspection will just get wiped out. The header goes on about politicians reconnecting with voters... well the way I see it that is what Trump is doing, and that is why a lot of people vote for him - as an alternative to inevitable failure.



    A Ghanaian told me that China was impressive - it took a century to get to the level of resentment against the British Empire, that the Chinese Empire has managed in a decade or two. Not at the elite level, but at the level of the person in the street.

    In a few years, populism about “taking back our country from China” will be a big movement in a few places.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Roger said:

    To lose 23 resigning Labour councillors looks like carelessness
    Given they resigned because Starmer isn’t racist enough for them, he’s better of rid in the eyes of millions of swing voters.
  • Sandpit said:

    That could have been written at any time in the last two decades.
    Normally with Cole or Marler being the one giving it away.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559

    England giving away too many penalties.

    Not a problem whilst the Saffers are giving even more in kickable positions....
  • isamisam Posts: 41,342
    edited October 2023
    It might not be the driver leading the chant though, how do we know it’s not someone on the train with a kind of megaphone?

    Then again, why would that person wish the marchers well, rather than get off the train & go with them?

    https://x.com/alexrubner/status/1715721468489695303?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Okay, so who bet on England being ahead at half time?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Sandpit said:

    Okay, so who bet on England being ahead at half time?

    Ben O Keefe
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Starmer should have just said “ international law” ad nauseam and nothing else . It was a surprising mistake to fall into the trap .

  • Sandpit said:

    Okay, so who bet on England being ahead at half time?

    Indian bookmakers?.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    @kateferguson4
    EXCL - Proposed law banning conversion therapy will be kicked into the long grass.

    The Bill is not in the Kings Speech

    Comes amid a growing Tory mutiny over controversial plan.

    Over 40 Tory MPs are writing to the government opposing it
    https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/1715797072782242020?s=20
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    Roger said:

    A major screw-up by Keir Starmer. He went far too far and now the pendulum has turned decisively in favour of the downtrodden Palestinians he looks at best an opportunist or at worst a LABOUR leader who doesn't give a damn about the human rights of Palestinians.

    BJO for once had it right.

    The pendulum has turned? Citation needed.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,711
    isam said:

    It might not be the driver leading the chant though, how do we know it’s not someone on the train with a kind of megaphone?

    Then again, why would that person wish the marchers well, rather than get off the train & go with them?

    https://x.com/alexrubner/status/1715721468489695303?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Owen Jones has spotted a new bandwagon to jump on:

    https://x.com/owenjones84/status/1715775511488499961

    Palestine and RMT member? Bingo!
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754

    Indian bookmakers?.....
    [Insert self censored post about earlier sport].
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,774
    kinabalu said:

    The economic decline of the West relative to the rest of the world is to be welcomed imo. The opposite would be a scandal.
    Iraq 2 contributed to economic decline, but that's really beside the point.
    We'd been struggling towards a principles based global order. Iraq fatally undermined what moral authority the U.S. and its allies had, and seriously divided western societies.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    Sandpit said:

    Given they resigned because Starmer isn’t racist enough for them, he’s better of rid in the eyes of millions of swing voters.
    Yes. The next GE isn't between Israel and Hamas. From Labour's point of view it's between Labour and Conservative (hundreds of seats) and SNP (40ish seats).

    In England not a soul is going to vote Tory because Sir K is pro Israel. In Scotland Labour present an alternative prospectus to the SNP which veers a bit Palestinian.

    The Islamic vote, the broad left vote and the extreme anti-Israel vote is going nowhere else important in electoral terms. This election will be won from the centre, which is why currently Sir K is winning it.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    HYUFD said:

    @kateferguson4
    EXCL - Proposed law banning conversion therapy will be kicked into the long grass.

    The Bill is not in the Kings Speech

    Comes amid a growing Tory mutiny over controversial plan.

    Over 40 Tory MPs are writing to the government opposing it
    https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/1715797072782242020?s=20

    What could they have against it? Is there some feature in the detail of the Bill I’m not seeing that justifies demurring? Based on the short title, I’d hope it would be a Bill capable of commanding 650 votes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    Nigelb said:

    Iraq 2 contributed to economic decline, but that's really beside the point.
    We'd been struggling towards a principles based global order. Iraq fatally undermined what moral authority the U.S. and its allies had, and seriously divided western societies.
    Yes because leaving Saddam Hussein in power, one of the most bloody dictators of the 20th century, would have been such a moral decision!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,812
    Sandpit said:

    Okay, so who bet on England being ahead at half time?

    I have some 18s for the trophy.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    isam said:

    It might not be the driver leading the chant though, how do we know it’s not someone on the train with a kind of megaphone?

    Then again, why would that person wish the marchers well, rather than get off the train & go with them?

    https://x.com/alexrubner/status/1715721468489695303?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Someone who found the controls to the guard's intercom? Could be anything.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    edited October 2023
    biggles said:

    What could they have against it? Is there some feature in the detail of the Bill I’m not seeing that justifies demurring? Based on the short title, I’d hope it would be a Bill capable of commanding 650 votes.
    Certainly many socially conservative Conservative MPs will be ideologically opposed to banning conversion therapy for trans people for example pre potential surgery
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    HYUFD said:

    @kateferguson4
    EXCL - Proposed law banning conversion therapy will be kicked into the long grass.

    The Bill is not in the Kings Speech

    Comes amid a growing Tory mutiny over controversial plan.

    Over 40 Tory MPs are writing to the government opposing it
    https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/1715797072782242020?s=20

    Was that the last remaining legacy of Penny being sponsored by Stonewall, threatening to imprison Sunday School teachers?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,774
    HYUFD said:

    Yes because leaving Saddam Hussein in power, one of the most bloody dictators of the 20th century, would have been such a moral decision!
    Keeping him in his box would have been sufficient.
    The idea that the West gets to choose who runs other countries died with Vietnam.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,955

    Indian bookmakers?.....
    I took Leon's tip earlier this week

  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    HYUFD said:

    Yes because leaving Saddam Hussein in power, one of the most bloody dictators of the 20th century, would have been such a moral decision!
    If postponed, we’d have ended up doing the same thing no more than five years later.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    algarkirk said:

    Yes. The next GE isn't between Israel and Hamas. From Labour's point of view it's between Labour and Conservative (hundreds of seats) and SNP (40ish seats).

    In England not a soul is going to vote Tory because Sir K is pro Israel. In Scotland Labour present an alternative prospectus to the SNP which veers a bit Palestinian.

    The Islamic vote, the broad left vote and the extreme anti-Israel vote is going nowhere else important in electoral terms. This election will be won from the centre, which is why currently Sir K is winning it.
    Interesting thought, but arguably a more serious conflict is between ScotLab and SKSLab.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,581
    HYUFD said:

    Yes because leaving Saddam Hussein in power, one of the most bloody dictators of the 20th century, would have been such a moral decision!
    Perhaps not invading without a clearer mandate from the UN would have been the more moral decision, at least in consequentialist terms.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    Nigelb said:

    Keeping him in his box would have been sufficient.
    The idea that the West gets to choose who runs other countries died with Vietnam.
    Well Saddam was removed, so the West achieved its aim there unlike Vietnam
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    "Move along please" 2023 style:

    https://x.com/metpoliceuk/status/1715767952539103408

    The flags in this photo are not those of ISIS. They are the ‘shahada’ which is a declaration of faith in Islam. ISIS flags may appear similar but are not the same. We have specialist officers with knowledge of flags working on this operation to assist with these assessments.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    Sandpit said:

    Was that the last remaining legacy of Penny being sponsored by Stonewall, threatening to imprison Sunday School teachers?
    Certainly looks like Penny will be too woke even for most Tory MPs to be next Tory leader, let alone Tory members
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,772
    Penalty or drop goal now and surely we go favourite.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    HYUFD said:

    Certainly many socially conservative Conservative MPs will be ideologically opposed to banning conversion therapy for trans people for example pre potential surgery
    Oh so there is something in the detail? Once we bring young people struggling with whether they are trans into it, I might not call working with them on whether the feeling is “real” before they have a op they can’t reverse “conversation therapy”.

    If that’s in scope then whether I support it all depends on the drafting - and note that I came in expecting universal support when I though it was a narrower Bill. Can’t we just ban the thing we surely all agree on (gay conversion therapy) and then move on from there?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    HYUFD said:

    Yes because leaving Saddam Hussein in power, one of the most bloody dictators of the 20th century, would have been such a moral decision!
    He was left in power after being defeated in Gulf War 1.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    edited October 2023

    He was left in power after being defeated in Gulf War 1.
    An error. We could have got away with marching on Baghdad the first time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    edited October 2023
    biggles said:

    Oh so there is something in the detail? Once we bring young people struggling with whether they are trans into it, I might not call working with them on whether the feeling is “real” before they have a op they can’t reverse “conversation therapy”.

    If that’s in scope then whether I support it all depends on the drafting - and note that I came in expecting universal support when I though it was a narrower Bill. Can’t we just ban the thing we surely all agree on (gay conversion therapy) and then move on from there?
    I doubt there would even be 100% support for banning gay conversion therapy, certainly many of the DUP and a few very socially conservative Tory MPs like traditionalist Roman Catholic Edward Leigh or evangelicals like Danny Kruger would not support a ban
  • England throwing it away...literally....
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    edited October 2023
    Dura_Ace said:

    Why? There are brutal dictators all over the world be we don't feel the need to kill 200,000 people and spend $800bn a time to depose them.
    I didn’t say anything about deposing him because he was a brutal dictator.

    We’d have been back for more off the back of more weapons inspector shenanigans.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,774
    HYUFD said:

    Well Saddam was removed, so the West achieved its aim there unlike Vietnam
    No, it lost billions and completely screwed up international relations for the next couple of decades. And fucked up the region.
    Not a great swap for getting rid of a middle ranking autocrat.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,812
    Nigelb said:

    Iraq 2 contributed to economic decline, but that's really beside the point.
    We'd been struggling towards a principles based global order. Iraq fatally undermined what moral authority the U.S. and its allies had, and seriously divided western societies.
    It sure did. I was more thinking about a phrase used in the header: western hegemony. This is a good thing if it refers to liberal democracy but not if it refers to wealth and living standards. Of course how those 2 things are correlated (and linked to the size and use of military power) is an interesting question.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095

    He was left in power after being defeated in Gulf War 1.
    And Thatcher wanted to go all the way to Baghdad but she was replaced midway through by Major who like Bush Snr was more wary
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,312
    biggles said:

    Oh so there is something in the detail? Once we bring young people struggling with whether they are trans into it, I might not call working with them on whether the feeling is “real” before they have a op they can’t reverse “conversation therapy”.

    If that’s in scope then whether I support it all depends on the drafting - and note that I came in expecting universal support when I though it was a narrower Bill. Can’t we just ban the thing we surely all agree on (gay conversion therapy) and then move on from there?
    BIB: I suggested that the last time it was long grassed. Nobody cared. People preferred complaining about trans to actually making gay people's lives better.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,189
    Excellent thread header making clear that the pain of colonialism goes on with so many poor souls (like me) suffering the agonies of following Man U.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    biggles said:

    An error. We could have got away with marching on Baghdad the first time.
    Yes, and the post-Cold War hubris hadn't yet set in so it probably would have been handled much better.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    viewcode said:

    BIB: I suggested that the last time it was long grassed. Nobody cared. People preferred complaining about trans to actually making gay people's lives better.
    Yeah, I think that’s got to be the conclusion.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    Nigelb said:

    No, it lost billions and completely screwed up international relations for the next couple of decades. And fucked up the region.
    Not a great swap for getting rid of a middle ranking autocrat.
    On what basis? Al Qaeda were there even before the invasion, no other regime in the Middle East has changed since and Saddam would certainly be providing Putin with funds and arms to use against Ukraine now
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,581
    Andy_JS said:

    I don't see how you can be both pro-democracy and complaining of populism. Democracy and populism are not the same, obviously, but populism is a normal facet of democracy which quite naturally arises whenever political leaders become too detached from the concerns of a large segment of the electorate.
    Sorry, missed this.

    Yes I see your point and I think reducing the disconnection between politicians and the population they serve is healthy, if sometimes a bit messy.

    My fear is that the current round of populism is more than that - the fragmentation of political discourse and the power of segmented easy answers to tricky questions through eg targeted Facebook ads allows a populist to unwind the democratic process such that they can hold onto power even when their own disconnect with the people is as great as the politicians they displaced.

    But perhaps it has ever been thus.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Why? There are brutal dictators all over the world be we don't feel the need to kill 200,000 people and spend $800bn a time to depose them.
    They hadn’t stuck the finger up to Daddy Bush though
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095

    They hadn’t stuck the finger up to Daddy Bush though
    Daddy Bush decided not to topple Saddam after defeating him in the Gulf War and liberating Kuwait, even though Thatcher wanted to (first and probably last time we had a UK PM who was right of a US Republican President)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,312

    They hadn’t stuck the finger up to Daddy Bush though
    I read that sentence and accidentally omitted the "to". It changed the meaning somewhat. :open_mouth:
  • Get the fuck in.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,772
    There you go - Crossover.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    maxh said:

    Sorry, missed this.

    Yes I see your point and I think reducing the disconnection between politicians and the population they serve is healthy, if sometimes a bit messy.

    My fear is that the current round of populism is more than that - the fragmentation of political discourse and the power of segmented easy answers to tricky questions through eg targeted Facebook ads allows a populist to unwind the democratic process such that they can hold onto power even when their own disconnect with the people is as great as the politicians they displaced.

    But perhaps it has ever been thus.
    Well perhaps the establishment politicians had been spending for too much time working for their donors, rather than their electorate? If they’re only in it for themselves, why shouldn’t they be voted out?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited October 2023
    FARRELL!!!!!

    Best drop goal since Wilkinson in the 2003 final?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630
    Win or lose from here, they’ve done us proud.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    I'm not going to believe until the whistle blows. SA have a knack for winning at the last.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,774
    HYUFD said:

    Daddy Bush decided not to topple Saddam after defeating him in the Gulf War and liberating Kuwait, even though Thatcher wanted to (first and probably last time we had a UK PM who was right of a US Republican President)
    Yes, she was wrong about German reunification, too.
This discussion has been closed.