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Braving a New World – politicalbetting.com
Braving a New World – politicalbetting.com
Where does time go ? It struck me that the first quarter of this century is just over a year away and what 25 years it has been.
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I have sympathy for the header, but I would frame it as two items:
1 - The West establishing an internal consistency with its values, in a way that fits in a changed world.
2 - Recasting the relationship with other parts of the world as more of a partnership.
I'd suggest that a question which is a good crucible to consider is what reform the UN Security Council should look like.
Which is part of the problem related to what Alanbrooke has written about, the West can have a place in the world and politicians do need to step up to the mark, but so too does the electorate.
Currently too many in the electorate want to define anyone who disagrees with them on anything as "hateful" or "woke" or all kinds of other nonsense.
Besides the worst autocratic extremes (like Trump not accepting democracy), we in the West have more that bind us together than drive us apart.
I'd rather live in a nation where the party I support loses democratically, than wins via foul play and autocratic means.
The western electorates, not just western politicians, need to value democracy and differences of opinion too.
But no mention of the role of the Internet and smartphones in all that has gone on.
It's a very different world young people have grown up in.
https://youtube.com/shorts/5YNYOws6oX0?si=N0Jnzbe0SHcR2_dN
I would also mention that climate change is likely to provide an increasingly troublesome backdrop to these geopolitical shifts. Based on current policies, it is estimated that, in 2100, the earth will be around 2.7C warmer than pre-industrial times and the sea level around a metre higher and rising rapidly. Large areas of the world will be becoming uninhabitable as the climate shifts; conversely, other regions will become more welcoming. The pressures resulting from this will surely also have significant effects on future politics.
Both sides need to accept that their leaders have failed them.
Tube tannoy broadcasts pro-Palestine chant ahead of protest
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/21/palestine-protest-march-london-israel-tube-tannoy-chant/
We are though certainly moving to a multi polar world, the US is no longer the supreme superpower as it was for most of the 20th century and the British Empire was for most of the 19th century. Instead China in particular is more or less the equal of the US in both economic and military terms and India is growing in economic terms too.
100 years ago Europe had a bigger population than Africa, now Africa has a bigger population than Europe. Russia has declined also relatively, hence the US is now most concerned about Beijing rather than Moscow but can still be an irritant, as its invasion of Ukraine has shown
This was apparently bigoted or something. Rather than driving through the nice bits in an SUV.
It’s a thought. Something to try.
The sad conclusion I've reached is that - outside an enlightened minority - most people aren't that interested in democracy, just a system that delivers the goods. Of course, when the boot is on the other foot they'll wish they still had it, but by then it will be too late.
If we want it to last, it has to keep delivering the goods.
https://x.com/lesdennis/status/1715745860858867836?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ
- Winston S Churchill, 11 November 1947.
I'd also point out that one of the examples cited - South Korea - is arguably only what it is because of a de facto occupation by the US (albeit with the cooperation of the South Koreans) followed by half a century or so of their engagement and influence.
In an era of social media, it seems no case can ever be sufficiently overstated with terms like “hate”, “genocide”, “violence”, being thrown about inappropriately.
And, good header.
His brother died at Hillsborough and every Merseyside derby at Anfield he sits in the Kop taking his brother’s seat.
It's ugly and ignorant and I think is what triggered kamski's 'hate speech' retort. But I won't speak for him.
That process, where billions of people are leaving poverty, is undoubtedly a good one for the world. But it's still extremely hard on those in developed world countries who have been negatively impacted by this: especially given that in other industries, such as tech and finance, globalisation seems to have been a massive boon.
Good article @Alanbrooke
In other words, which of the two is most important to him? In a conflict between a democratic, capitalist nation and an non-democratic socialist nation, which side would he tend to favor? His biography suggest the second; it isn't everyone who decides to honeymoon in the Soviet Union, as he did.
(Some rude folks have suggested Sanders doesn't always stick to socialist principles. He is now a millionaire, thanks to book sales, and he and his wife own three houses.)
https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/wbbl-2023-24-1387171/adelaide-strikers-women-vs-melbourne-stars-women-4th-match-1387175/full-scorecard
I’m through security. I’ve got a fat G&T. These are the simple reliable pleasures of life
In this respect Rory Stewart typifies the problem, not the solution.
The economic case against it is more convincing. But even there the report in the end says that hydrogen would be around 20% more expensive than heat pumps, which is within the range of uncertainty at this point.
But a more compelling, though unstated argument is that to be competitive, there would be significant pressure to use non-carbon neutral sources of hydrogen.
Very hard to see how this plays out
Would ISIS have happened? Highly doubtful! The Syrian Revolution? Equally doubtful.
I agree about the increase in the African population but part of the problem there is violent Islam, which was surely a spin-off from the Iraq War.
The decline in family formation has been bad for everyone here, but especially boys.
Catania is a cheap way in, plus they are having an agreeable heatwave - 27C
Edit: also, wasn't there an element of self-sealing, with the residual tars filling up cracks and so on? Not obtained with North Sea Gas, as opposed to the gasworks 2 miles away.
Notd suggesting you are wrong: but it's certainly an anomaly.
The Syrian revolution against Assad was more a product of the Arab Spring than Iraq and plenty of jihadis infiltrated rebel groups there (so in that sense it was probably right we didn't try and topple Assad as the alternative there may have been worse).
Violent Islam was there well before the Iraq War, after all 9/11 was launched by Bin Laden well before 2003's Iraq War and Al Qaeda had also been operating in Africa in Sudan, Somalia even when Clinton was US President
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/10/21/hamas-raid-hostages-gaza-terrorist-targets/
Anybody hear old enough, or learned enough, to have ever heard of Lawton Chiles? AKA "Walkin' Lawton"?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawton_Chiles
Despite 12 years in the Florida Legislature, Chiles was relatively unknown when he decided to bid for United States Senate in 1970. He embarked on a 1,003-mile walk from Pensacola to Key West for his campaign, earning him the nickname "Walkin' Lawton". It was successful and Chiles defeated his opponent William C. Cramer by a 53.9%–46.1% margin. Chiles was re-elected with relative ease in 1976 and 1982. He retired from the United States Senate in 1989.
Not long after his retirement, supporters convinced him to run for governor of Florida in 1990 against the unpopular incumbent Bob Martinez, and Chiles defeated Martinez by a 13-point margin (56.5% to 43.5%). During his first term as Governor, Chiles reformed health care and oversaw recovery efforts from Hurricane Andrew in 1992. Chiles faced a tough re-election bid in 1994 against Jeb Bush, a businessman and son of former President George H. W. Bush. Chiles prevailed over Bush by fewer than 64,000 votes. During his second term, Chiles reformed education in Florida. On December 12, 1998, he suffered a heart attack and died at the Florida Governor's Mansion . . . . Chiles's reelection in 1994 is the last time a Democrat was elected Governor of Florida, with McKay being the most recent Democratic governor.
SSI - Distance from Pensacola to Key West is less than from Land's End to John O'Groats via "End to End" trail.
However, MUCH better swimming at either end of the great Sunshine State than in Great Britain!
And, yes, you can get given a shot of limoncello with every bloody meal.
It's still not that exciting.
Notion that a person of "socialist principles" is ispso facto a hypocrite for making and/or possessing money in a capitalists economy & society, is BS at least IMHO.
Modica, Ragusa, Noto?
Tsk
When peace comes the call of duty is weaker, and we get worse leaders.
There seems to be an odd effect where people have more children in wartime - I guess biologically it makes some sense, but I think it's very unhelpful in the case of Gaza. Organisations such as Hamas thrive on this.
I’ve seen some spectacular volcanoes in my time. Is etna worth the detour?
I think the event which most undermined Western hegemony (or rather sped up its relative decline) was not Iraq or anything else in the War on Terror, it was the Global Financial Crisis, which has had a number of disastrous political and economic effects. It has (wrongly in my view) discredited free enterprise capitalism, which has delivered so much prosperity over the last century, while emboldening socialists, and it has embittered political debate, because everybody is competing for shares of a stagnant pie. It has also encouraged the Chinese, who seemed to be relatively unscathed, into believing (like the Japanese a generation ago) that their system was somehow superior, and that they could generate growth indefinitely by expanding credit forever. In fact, China is facing its own massive problems right now (demographics, huge debt, environmental degradation and a political system uniquely ill-equipped to change). So I'm not counting the West out, as long as we remember what made us successful in the first place.
But the quality of government beyond that minimal level will depend upon a complex relationship of the maturity of the voters and their capacity to reject simplistic answers to complex problems, the quality of people seeking politics as a career and the utility of the media who mediate so much of the conversation. A good deal of this is down to luck and events that have already occurred.
Hard to know ex-ante (walk it backwards)
If you climb it in early Spring, there are still people skiing on it, while you are climbing upwards towards the heat of the crater.
But if you've done two or three volcanoes already, then there's not that much new for you there.
Edit: have not been.
Things are seldom what they seem and hindight is a wonderful thing.
Cliches aside, I think I start not in 2001 but in 1989 - the end of the Cold War was so sudden and unexpected nobody had much time to work out what it would all mean. Conservatives, socialists and liberals all took different interpretations and history has proven all of them wrong.
The 20th Century arguably ran from 1914 to 1989 - the 21st Century began in November 1989 and much as the 20th had, promised so much before violently moving in a different direction. The powers and ideology - the US and liberal democracy - which had triumphed in the 20th century quickly found themselves facing new adversaries and new trials.
Perhaps the most important of these trials has been the trial within - the promises of that better world which seemed to flow from 1989 haven't been delivered for many. Environmental and demographic trends challenge the political, economic and social cultures which dominated the 20th century. An economic culture based on mass consumption of fossil fuels, an economy based on a young and semi-skilled workforce and a society based on suburbs and mass personal transportation - all these seem if not anachronistic but increasingly inappropriate for a new century.
Instead, an ageing population facing challenges around energy consumption and production, moves away from traditional ways of working and living and the emergence of new, younger and more dynamic societies and countries (India, Nigeria, Brazil and others) challenge the dominance of both Europe and the West.
The long-propheised shift of global economic and political power to the Pacific is perhaps finally happening leaving Europe on the wrong side of the globe and an ocean away.
Whatevs
It may destroy the world or it may turn the world into Utopia. Either way it will divert the melancholy trajectory you describe
Isn't that it? Your particular point?
At least we live in interesting times
Bin Laden is surely laughing in hell, in between getting pegged by a demonic Maureen Lipmann noisily eating pork scratchings
Back in 2010, the year my son was born, I bought a Tesla Roadster.
Just 13 years later, the best selling car in the US is electric and almost all vehicles sold in Norway are electric. Oil demand in Norway is down 9% year-over-year, and their electrical grid hasn't fallen over.
And we're seeing similar strides with renewables. It's only a matter of time before most electricity generated comes from zero carbon sources of one kind or another. Heating and cooling are being transformed by heat pumps.
This is a monumental change, that means less pollution, cleaner cities, and - yes - much cheaper power in the long run,.
Just Saddam would still be in power
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Places_in_Between
ETA Rory also climbed out of a fifth floor window to gain reentry to his own office.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/rory-stewart-climbed-out-of-fifthfloor-window-and-scaled-building-after-getting-locked-out-of-office-a4171661.html
Before becoming an MP in 2010, Mr Stewart was a diplomat in Indonesia and Montenegro, and a deputy governor of two Iraqi provinces after the 2003 war. He also walked for 21 months across Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India and Nepal.
Mr Stewart, the International Development Secretary, previously denied he was a spy. But, asked on BBC Radio 4 if ex-spies could legally say whether they worked for MI6, he said no.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/rory-stewart-spy-claims-could-put-others-at-risk-senior-tory-warns-a4169731.html
Except me, of course.
As read by the author - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dgo-As552hY
Looking at the mess we've made out of civilization, why shouldn't AI be disgusted with us?
I mean we can continue your infantile discourse if you like, but I’m making a more sophisticated point
Jewish people of the left - previously progressive, pro immigration and pro multiculturalism - are suddenly realising these polices are a disaster for them
As they are a vocal and influential constituency within the left - in Britain and elsewhere - this will have a significant effect on our politics. I have Jewish friends who have made exactly this intellectual leap in the past week
Making money from private business and corporations, finance or big tech however is somewhat hypocritical if you are a socialist as you want a largely state run economy
Although for some reason I've never told my kids that.
Indeed now Iraq 2 looks more successful in achieving its aims longer term than Afghanistan was