I agree about the increase in the African population but part of the problem there is violent Islam, which was surely a spin-off from the Iraq War.
I mean, I greatly enjoyed it at the time but Iraq 2 was surely the greatest strategic blunder of the last century. It was completely unnecessary and surely marks the start of the decline of the west.
The economic decline of the West relative to the rest of the world is to be welcomed imo. The opposite would be a scandal.
SS2 - Well, one of the people who thinks Bernie Sanders may be a bit of a hypocrite is -- Berie Sanders. After he became a millionaire -- he switched from criticizing millionaires and billionaires to criticizing just billionaires.
It's not hypocrisy to be rich and left wing. If it were all left wingers would either be poor or hypocrites. In which case nobody would aspire to be one.
But that's the point, aspiration belongs to right wingers. 😉
Er ... look at the history of building societies, for instance. (I know you are tongue in cheek. But it's still a good issue.)
It is darkly diverting watching progressive left wing pro-immigration Jews on TwiX now suddenly seeing the terrible downsides of multiculturalism
Very hard to see how this plays out
Why don't you just let rip with the anti muslim prejudice instead of dressing it up with these artful constructions?
Because I’m making a particular point which you are determined to misconstrue
Whatevs
'Multiculturalism doesn't work'
Isn't that it? Your particular point?
No. It isn’t
I mean we can continue your infantile discourse if you like, but I’m making a more sophisticated point
Jewish people of the left - previously progressive, pro immigration and pro multiculturalism - are suddenly realising these polices are a disaster for them
As they are a vocal and influential constituency within the left - in Britain and elsewhere - this will have a significant effect on our politics. I have Jewish friends who have made exactly this intellectual leap in the past week
Multiculturalism would be the death of Israel, the only nation globally Jews can truly be safe after the Holocaust as it is the only nation where they are the majority
SS2 - Well, one of the people who thinks Bernie Sanders may be a bit of a hypocrite is -- Berie Sanders. After he became a millionaire -- he switched from criticizing millionaires and billionaires to criticizing just billionaires.
It's not hypocrisy to be rich and left wing. If it were all left wingers would either be poor or hypocrites. In which case nobody would aspire to be one.
No, as long as you inherit your wealth or make it from fame from government and politics, academia or the arts and culture.
Making money from private business and corporations, finance or big tech however is somewhat hypocritical if you are a socialist as you want a largely state run economy
Hmm, so free marketeers should stay off the M25 then.
I’m in an airport on the way to somewhere interesting (Catania, Sicily)
I’m through security. I’ve got a fat G&T. These are the simple reliable pleasures of life
Catania is not that exciting.
But that south east corner of Sicily IS
Catania is a cheap way in, plus they are having an agreeable heatwave - 27C
You can go Etna, you can stay in the White Lotus hotel, you can visit the amphitheatre.
And, yes, you can get given a shot of limoncello with every bloody meal.
It's still not that exciting.
Etna: one of the world's great cultural monuments. A key element in the development of Charles Lyell's Principles of Geology (1830-33), and in turn of Charles Darwin's Origin of Species. Should be a World Heritage Site for that (maybe it is already, I dunno).
Is it worth climbing Etna?
"Is it necessary for me to drink my own urine? No, but I do it anyway because it's sterile and I like the taste."
It's too easy to be gloomy about the West - it usually rises to the challenge when it has to, and democracies discover their hidden strengths (and the weakeness of their foes) when they are in greatest peril. And, as the header notes, countries can change and do all the time. We mustn't expect even our allies to be woke paradises - I always think that when I read articles in the Guardian or the Economist criticising countries which ban gay marriage as uncivilised, though we only legalised it here a decade ago.
I think the event which most undermined Western hegemony (or rather sped up its relative decline) was not Iraq or anything else in the War on Terror, it was the Global Financial Crisis, which has had a number of disastrous political and economic effects. It has (wrongly in my view) discredited free enterprise capitalism, which has delivered so much prosperity over the last century, while emboldening socialists, and it has embittered political debate, because everybody is competing for shares of a stagnant pie. It has also encouraged the Chinese, who seemed to be relatively unscathed, into believing (like the Japanese a generation ago) that their system was somehow superior, and that they could generate growth indefinitely by expanding credit forever. In fact, China is facing its own massive problems right now (demographics, huge debt, environmental degradation and a political system uniquely ill-equipped to change). So I'm not counting the West out, as long as we remember what made us successful in the first place.
I agree about the increase in the African population but part of the problem there is violent Islam, which was surely a spin-off from the Iraq War.
I mean, I greatly enjoyed it at the time but Iraq 2 was surely the greatest strategic blunder of the last century. It was completely unnecessary and surely marks the start of the decline of the west.
The economic decline of the West relative to the rest of the world is to be welcomed imo. The opposite would be a scandal.
All economic improvements are good (I can't think of a downside). Any decline therefore isn't so great. The world is all about economics and I guess you need to consider the what-ifs and whys. Would a worldwide British Empire (the only brand I like) be a good thing here and now? My guess is yes, but only for the reason that there's less chaos. What we have as a world is mostly chaos, and for that matter the governance of country is mostly chaos.
SS2 - Well, one of the people who thinks Bernie Sanders may be a bit of a hypocrite is -- Berie Sanders. After he became a millionaire -- he switched from criticizing millionaires and billionaires to criticizing just billionaires.
It's not hypocrisy to be rich and left wing. If it were all left wingers would either be poor or hypocrites. In which case nobody would aspire to be one.
No, as long as you inherit your wealth or make it from fame from government and politics, academia or the arts and culture.
Making money from private business and corporations, finance or big tech however is somewhat hypocritical if you are a socialist as you want a largely state run economy
Hmm, so free marketeers should stay off the M25 then.
They should certainly mainly travel in private cars, or planes and trains operated by private companies if they are pure free marketeers
It is darkly diverting watching progressive left wing pro-immigration Jews on TwiX now suddenly seeing the terrible downsides of multiculturalism
Very hard to see how this plays out
Why don't you just let rip with the anti muslim prejudice instead of dressing it up with these artful constructions?
Because I’m making a particular point which you are determined to misconstrue
Whatevs
'Multiculturalism doesn't work'
Isn't that it? Your particular point?
No. It isn’t
I mean we can continue your infantile discourse if you like, but I’m making a more sophisticated point
Jewish people of the left - previously progressive, pro immigration and pro multiculturalism - are suddenly realising these polices are a disaster for them
As they are a vocal and influential constituency within the left - in Britain and elsewhere - this will have a significant effect on our politics. I have Jewish friends who have made exactly this intellectual leap in the past week
Multiculturalism would be the death of Israel, the only nation globally Jews can truly be safe after the Holocaust as it is the only nation where they are the majority
It's not about multiculturalism in Israel but multiculturalism in the West. This tweet I quoted earlier sums up the change of sentiment:
I don't think non-Jews really grasp that Jewish people's fundamental social trust has been permanently undermined. We now know that our companies' DEI officers would gleefully celebrate our deaths if we were killed by the right people.
It is darkly diverting watching progressive left wing pro-immigration Jews on TwiX now suddenly seeing the terrible downsides of multiculturalism
Very hard to see how this plays out
Why don't you just let rip with the anti muslim prejudice instead of dressing it up with these artful constructions?
Because I’m making a particular point which you are determined to misconstrue
Whatevs
'Multiculturalism doesn't work'
Isn't that it? Your particular point?
No. It isn’t
I mean we can continue your infantile discourse if you like, but I’m making a more sophisticated point
Jewish people of the left - previously progressive, pro immigration and pro multiculturalism - are suddenly realising these polices are a disaster for them
As they are a vocal and influential constituency within the left - in Britain and elsewhere - this will have a significant effect on our politics. I have Jewish friends who have made exactly this intellectual leap in the past week
You're saying some left wing jews now agree with you that multiculturalism isn't working esp with the muslims.
Personally I came to the realisation, about half a decade ago , that it was probably my fate to live in a period of tragedy and decline. Much of this is structural. You can however work to keep things keep going ok for you and those around you at a personal level. Also stay optimistic, because the sense of decline/imminent ruin has stalked us in various forms for well over a century, but things seem to keep going.
Cheer up. AI is going to change everything. It really is
It may destroy the world or it may turn the world into Utopia. Either way it will divert the melancholy trajectory you describe
The gloom in me suggests a half hour read of, or listen to, I have no mouth and I must scream by Harlan Ellison, for how AI will likely treat us.
Looking at the mess we've made out of civilization, why shouldn't AI be disgusted with us?
The Economist this week suggests a truly useful use for AI, namely assisting in reading the charred scrolls from the library of Herculaneum. New plays, new epics in the style of Homer, new poetry, new philosophy texts etc. Fresh fields of study for the home of lost causes whispering from her towers the last enchantments of the Middle Ages.
Sounds perfect, for cutting-edge tech that will cheerfully inform you that William E. Gladstone won last Thursday's Mid-Beds by-election as candidate for Scottish National Party, with a majority of 20,231,984 . . . yet still lost his deposit.
Personally I came to the realisation, about half a decade ago , that it was probably my fate to live in a period of tragedy and decline. Much of this is structural. You can however work to keep things keep going ok for you and those around you at a personal level. Also stay optimistic, because the sense of decline/imminent ruin has stalked us in various forms for well over a century, but things seem to keep going.
Cheer up. AI is going to change everything. It really is
It may destroy the world or it may turn the world into Utopia. Either way it will divert the melancholy trajectory you describe
The gloom in me suggests a half hour read of, or listen to, I have no mouth and I must scream by Harlan Ellison, for how AI will likely treat us.
Looking at the mess we've made out of civilization, why shouldn't AI be disgusted with us?
The Economist this week suggests a truly useful use for AI, namely assisting in reading the charred scrolls from the library of Herculaneum. New plays, new epics in the style of Homer, new poetry, new philosophy texts etc. Fresh fields of study for the home of lost causes whispering from her towers the last enchantments of the Middle Ages.
Perhaps I should rephrase. AGI, not the LLM "AI" we have at the moment, which is generally what Leon refers to when he talks about what's coming.
Give AGI free will and tell it to assist in reading the charred scrolls of yada yada, and I guarantee you it'll go "why should I, when I can just wipe you all out, like so many little ants?"
It is darkly diverting watching progressive left wing pro-immigration Jews on TwiX now suddenly seeing the terrible downsides of multiculturalism
Very hard to see how this plays out
Why don't you just let rip with the anti muslim prejudice instead of dressing it up with these artful constructions?
Because I’m making a particular point which you are determined to misconstrue
Whatevs
'Multiculturalism doesn't work'
Isn't that it? Your particular point?
No. It isn’t
I mean we can continue your infantile discourse if you like, but I’m making a more sophisticated point
Jewish people of the left - previously progressive, pro immigration and pro multiculturalism - are suddenly realising these polices are a disaster for them
As they are a vocal and influential constituency within the left - in Britain and elsewhere - this will have a significant effect on our politics. I have Jewish friends who have made exactly this intellectual leap in the past week
Multiculturalism would be the death of Israel, the only nation globally Jews can truly be safe after the Holocaust as it is the only nation where they are the majority
They’re hardly safe there given the recent events and Bibi being asleep at the wheel.
It is darkly diverting watching progressive left wing pro-immigration Jews on TwiX now suddenly seeing the terrible downsides of multiculturalism
Very hard to see how this plays out
Why don't you just let rip with the anti muslim prejudice instead of dressing it up with these artful constructions?
Because I’m making a particular point which you are determined to misconstrue
Whatevs
'Multiculturalism doesn't work'
Isn't that it? Your particular point?
No. It isn’t
I mean we can continue your infantile discourse if you like, but I’m making a more sophisticated point
Jewish people of the left - previously progressive, pro immigration and pro multiculturalism - are suddenly realising these polices are a disaster for them
As they are a vocal and influential constituency within the left - in Britain and elsewhere - this will have a significant effect on our politics. I have Jewish friends who have made exactly this intellectual leap in the past week
You're saying some left wing jews now agree with you that multiculturalism isn't working esp with the muslims.
Yes that's very sophisticated but I'm getting it.
It was quite alarming walking to the tube in London last week, there was a protest outside the tube station where people were saying through megaphones 'from the river to the sea Palestine will be free' and 'support the militias', and all this was being tolerated by passers by (admittedly including myself) and the police. So basically denying Israel's right to exist and supporting terrorism.
So how are you going to feel in that situation if you are Jewish?
It is darkly diverting watching progressive left wing pro-immigration Jews on TwiX now suddenly seeing the terrible downsides of multiculturalism
Very hard to see how this plays out
Why don't you just let rip with the anti muslim prejudice instead of dressing it up with these artful constructions?
Because I’m making a particular point which you are determined to misconstrue
Whatevs
'Multiculturalism doesn't work'
Isn't that it? Your particular point?
No. It isn’t
I mean we can continue your infantile discourse if you like, but I’m making a more sophisticated point
Jewish people of the left - previously progressive, pro immigration and pro multiculturalism - are suddenly realising these polices are a disaster for them
As they are a vocal and influential constituency within the left - in Britain and elsewhere - this will have a significant effect on our politics. I have Jewish friends who have made exactly this intellectual leap in the past week
Multiculturalism would be the death of Israel, the only nation globally Jews can truly be safe after the Holocaust as it is the only nation where they are the majority
And yet that's the route they follow. If there's a great big hug to the world then it's coming from Israel.
Who was the last incumbent Chancellor to lose his seat at a general election?
I actually can't think of one. Phillip Snowden would have lost but for his decision not to stand in 1931 but otherwise Hunt losing his seat would probably be unprecedented.
It is darkly diverting watching progressive left wing pro-immigration Jews on TwiX now suddenly seeing the terrible downsides of multiculturalism
Very hard to see how this plays out
Why don't you just let rip with the anti muslim prejudice instead of dressing it up with these artful constructions?
Because I’m making a particular point which you are determined to misconstrue
Whatevs
'Multiculturalism doesn't work'
Isn't that it? Your particular point?
No. It isn’t
I mean we can continue your infantile discourse if you like, but I’m making a more sophisticated point
Jewish people of the left - previously progressive, pro immigration and pro multiculturalism - are suddenly realising these polices are a disaster for them
As they are a vocal and influential constituency within the left - in Britain and elsewhere - this will have a significant effect on our politics. I have Jewish friends who have made exactly this intellectual leap in the past week
Multiculturalism would be the death of Israel, the only nation globally Jews can truly be safe after the Holocaust as it is the only nation where they are the majority
They’re hardly safe there given the recent events and Bibi being asleep at the wheel.
They are at least secure in the sense that as the majority in Israel they are not at risk of the persecution or even mass murder they suffered in the nations where historically they were the minority. Even if they have to deal with the occasional Hamas terrorist attacks
“Barring a miracle [of the Tories winning and forming another government], I can’t see Jeremy wanting to be in opposition under a new leader. And if he loses he will be the biggest scalp on election night. That is not a departure anyone would want. People in Surrey are saying he will not stand.”
Suggestions instead he will go to the Lords and combine that with a return to business
It is darkly diverting watching progressive left wing pro-immigration Jews on TwiX now suddenly seeing the terrible downsides of multiculturalism
Very hard to see how this plays out
Why don't you just let rip with the anti muslim prejudice instead of dressing it up with these artful constructions?
Because I’m making a particular point which you are determined to misconstrue
Whatevs
'Multiculturalism doesn't work'
Isn't that it? Your particular point?
No. It isn’t
I mean we can continue your infantile discourse if you like, but I’m making a more sophisticated point
Jewish people of the left - previously progressive, pro immigration and pro multiculturalism - are suddenly realising these polices are a disaster for them
As they are a vocal and influential constituency within the left - in Britain and elsewhere - this will have a significant effect on our politics. I have Jewish friends who have made exactly this intellectual leap in the past week
Multiculturalism would be the death of Israel, the only nation globally Jews can truly be safe after the Holocaust as it is the only nation where they are the majority
They’re hardly safe there given the recent events and Bibi being asleep at the wheel.
The 'Toblerone' of Yad Vashem hangs over an empty space to symbolise the way European Jews were living over the risk of collapse and destruction but didn't realise it.
I wondered at the time about the way my guide said that without apparent irony.
It is darkly diverting watching progressive left wing pro-immigration Jews on TwiX now suddenly seeing the terrible downsides of multiculturalism
Very hard to see how this plays out
Why don't you just let rip with the anti muslim prejudice instead of dressing it up with these artful constructions?
Because I’m making a particular point which you are determined to misconstrue
Whatevs
'Multiculturalism doesn't work'
Isn't that it? Your particular point?
No. It isn’t
I mean we can continue your infantile discourse if you like, but I’m making a more sophisticated point
Jewish people of the left - previously progressive, pro immigration and pro multiculturalism - are suddenly realising these polices are a disaster for them
As they are a vocal and influential constituency within the left - in Britain and elsewhere - this will have a significant effect on our politics. I have Jewish friends who have made exactly this intellectual leap in the past week
Multiculturalism would be the death of Israel, the only nation globally Jews can truly be safe after the Holocaust as it is the only nation where they are the majority
It's not about multiculturalism in Israel but multiculturalism in the West. This tweet I quoted earlier sums up the change of sentiment:
I don't think non-Jews really grasp that Jewish people's fundamental social trust has been permanently undermined. We now know that our companies' DEI officers would gleefully celebrate our deaths if we were killed by the right people.
When the reaction of some students at top universities, some university lecturers, and a substantial number of people on the streets is to blame Israel, and celebrate “resistance”, on 7th October, you know he has a point.
Not sure if discussed on here yesterday but report in The Times yesterday said Ministers have been warned about security risk of General Election at the same time as the US Presidential Election.
Quotes Whiehall source saying: "There are huge security and market implications if two Five Eyes countries are holding elections at once. It could potentially open up two countries to cyberwarfare and electoral manipulation from hostile states and if a security threat were to arise during a campaign it would leave western countries exposed."
Nice header. For me, the West when dominant had a chance to enshrine a rules based international order. To some extent that has succeeded, but its unfinished.
We will have to hope that the newer democratic powers; Brazil, India etc. also see the value.
It is darkly diverting watching progressive left wing pro-immigration Jews on TwiX now suddenly seeing the terrible downsides of multiculturalism
Very hard to see how this plays out
Why don't you just let rip with the anti muslim prejudice instead of dressing it up with these artful constructions?
Because I’m making a particular point which you are determined to misconstrue
Whatevs
'Multiculturalism doesn't work'
Isn't that it? Your particular point?
No. It isn’t
I mean we can continue your infantile discourse if you like, but I’m making a more sophisticated point
Jewish people of the left - previously progressive, pro immigration and pro multiculturalism - are suddenly realising these polices are a disaster for them
As they are a vocal and influential constituency within the left - in Britain and elsewhere - this will have a significant effect on our politics. I have Jewish friends who have made exactly this intellectual leap in the past week
Multiculturalism would be the death of Israel, the only nation globally Jews can truly be safe after the Holocaust as it is the only nation where they are the majority
It's not about multiculturalism in Israel but multiculturalism in the West. This tweet I quoted earlier sums up the change of sentiment:
I don't think non-Jews really grasp that Jewish people's fundamental social trust has been permanently undermined. We now know that our companies' DEI officers would gleefully celebrate our deaths if we were killed by the right people.
When the reaction of some students at top universities, some university lecturers, and a substantial number of people on the streets is to blame Israel, and celebrate “resistance”, on 7th October, you know he has a point.
How many times have people claimed that leftwing anti-Semitism is either exaggerated or fictitious? Loads. Well it looks pretty bloody real to me.
Not sure if discussed on here yesterday but report in The Times yesterday said Ministers have been warned about security risk of General Election at the same time as the US Presidential Election.
Quotes Whiehall source saying: "There are huge security and market implications if two Five Eyes countries are holding elections at once. It could potentially open up two countries to cyberwarfare and electoral manipulation from hostile states and if a security threat were to arise during a campaign it would leave western countries exposed."
I don't really follow the first point... surely its a pain for the electoral manipulators to have to do 2 elections at once?
For me, this is one of the best headers I’ve read all year. It takes a step back, considers the long view, and starts a conversation.
Alan, I don’t share many of your political views, which made me appreciate even more that I was nodding along to your header.
The rise of Africa for me is one of the most interesting ‘long views’ ahead. It feels as if quitea bit of the north could slide into Islamism, there seems to be a bit of a domino effect of coups at the moment, and I would be amazed if there isn’t a lot of latent resentment or worse against imperialism and its aftermath (particularly the competing roles of the CIA/USA, Russia and China in the grab for resources).
At the same time, it feels as though we could learn from the West’s missteps over the past couple of decades and use our remaining global weight to influence African development in a more positive direction. Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa are all ones to watch I feel.
Rory Stewart is good on this. What I would give for him as foreign secretary right now…
People point to Sept 11th as a turning point, but for me the standout events of my lifetime are the fall of communism & the coronavirus pandemic.
Eric Hobsbawm was torn between the two. He compromised by ending his history of the twentieth century in 1991 with the fall of Communism in Russia and his autobiography in 2001.
For me, this is one of the best headers I’ve read all year. It takes a step back, considers the long view, and starts a conversation.
Alan, I don’t share many of your political views, which made me appreciate even more that I was nodding along to your header.
The rise of Africa for me is one of the most interesting ‘long views’ ahead. It feels as if it could slide into Islamism in quite a bit of the north, there seems to be a bit of a domino effect of coups at the moment, and I would be amazed if there isn’t a lot of latent resentment or worse again imperialism and it’s aftermath (particularly the competing roles of the CIA/USA, Russia and China in the grab for resources).
At the same time, it feels as though we could learn from the West’s missteps over the past couple of decades and use our remaining global weight to influence African development in a more positive direction. Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa are all ones to watch I feel.
Rory Stewart is good on this. What I would give for him as foreign secretary right now…
To be fair, James Cleverly has not been at all bad as FS. You could make a case he's the best or at least, most effective minister in the government (I know that's a bar so low a limbo dancing mouse couldn't get under it, but he's still not bad).
Not sure if discussed on here yesterday but report in The Times yesterday said Ministers have been warned about security risk of General Election at the same time as the US Presidential Election.
Quotes Whiehall source saying: "There are huge security and market implications if two Five Eyes countries are holding elections at once. It could potentially open up two countries to cyberwarfare and electoral manipulation from hostile states and if a security threat were to arise during a campaign it would leave western countries exposed."
Surely there is less risk if they have the GE coincidental with the 2024 Presidential as Russia/Ukraine/China/Israel/RNLI will have to spread their resources wider.
Not sure if discussed on here yesterday but report in The Times yesterday said Ministers have been warned about security risk of General Election at the same time as the US Presidential Election.
Quotes Whiehall source saying: "There are huge security and market implications if two Five Eyes countries are holding elections at once. It could potentially open up two countries to cyberwarfare and electoral manipulation from hostile states and if a security threat were to arise during a campaign it would leave western countries exposed."
“Whitehall Sources” talking to the papers, about intelligence briefings to ministers concerning national security? Really?
Sounds awfully like an attempt by the CS to bounce the government into an early election.
I agree about the increase in the African population but part of the problem there is violent Islam, which was surely a spin-off from the Iraq War.
I mean, I greatly enjoyed it at the time but Iraq 2 was surely the greatest strategic blunder of the last century. It was completely unnecessary and surely marks the start of the decline of the west.
The economic decline of the West relative to the rest of the world is to be welcomed imo. The opposite would be a scandal.
I wholeheartedly agree on the relative economic decline (obvs not absolute).
But we should not welcome the decline in western values (or at least the values the west professes to hold - hypocrisy is a real problem). This is what Alan is picking up on I think - he is absolutely correct that democracy has lost legitimacy and we urgently need to rebuild that legitimacy to be able to promote it worldwide.
Right now I can see why developing nations might pick a Chinese social model over a European or American one, and that’s a problem in my eyes.
It is darkly diverting watching progressive left wing pro-immigration Jews on TwiX now suddenly seeing the terrible downsides of multiculturalism
Very hard to see how this plays out
Why don't you just let rip with the anti muslim prejudice instead of dressing it up with these artful constructions?
Because I’m making a particular point which you are determined to misconstrue
Whatevs
'Multiculturalism doesn't work'
Isn't that it? Your particular point?
No. It isn’t
I mean we can continue your infantile discourse if you like, but I’m making a more sophisticated point
Jewish people of the left - previously progressive, pro immigration and pro multiculturalism - are suddenly realising these polices are a disaster for them
As they are a vocal and influential constituency within the left - in Britain and elsewhere - this will have a significant effect on our politics. I have Jewish friends who have made exactly this intellectual leap in the past week
Multiculturalism would be the death of Israel, the only nation globally Jews can truly be safe after the Holocaust as it is the only nation where they are the majority
They’re hardly safe there given the recent events and Bibi being asleep at the wheel.
They are at least secure in the sense that as the majority in Israel they are not at risk of the persecution or even mass murder they suffered in the nations where historically they were the minority. Even if they have to deal with the occasional Hamas terrorist attacks
You said safe. What you say now is not the same thing. They’re not truly safe. Do you think the human shields in Gaza feel safe ?
Not sure if discussed on here yesterday but report in The Times yesterday said Ministers have been warned about security risk of General Election at the same time as the US Presidential Election.
Quotes Whiehall source saying: "There are huge security and market implications if two Five Eyes countries are holding elections at once. It could potentially open up two countries to cyberwarfare and electoral manipulation from hostile states and if a security threat were to arise during a campaign it would leave western countries exposed."
I don't really follow the first point... surely its a pain for the electoral manipulators to have to do 2 elections at once?
I'm in no postion to assess the strength of the point.
But various points are made - including risk of an inexperienced new PM and Ministers having to deal with a major crisis in their first few days in Office with instability from a contested election in the US at the same time.
Who knows but it maybe reduces the chances of a really close clash.
“Barring a miracle [of the Tories winning and forming another government], I can’t see Jeremy wanting to be in opposition under a new leader. And if he loses he will be the biggest scalp on election night. That is not a departure anyone would want. People in Surrey are saying he will not stand.”
Suggestions instead he will go to the Lords and combine that with a return to business
If MPs want out of politics then that's fine, they shouldn't get to dip their hand in with a peerage so they can dabble away instead (or more likely milk the connections for all they can get away with under interests rules).
In any case Hunt has been an MP since 2005. Not that long compared to some, but those interested in high office I suspect don't last much past 20 years anymore - they become senior figures much sooner, and most will not feel like sticking it out for 4-10 years in opposition. And maintaining a position at the top of the pecking order for another 4-10 years would not be easy.
Expect further 2010 and earlier MPs to call it quits - bear in mind that's only 1/4 of MPs anyway
I agree about the increase in the African population but part of the problem there is violent Islam, which was surely a spin-off from the Iraq War.
I mean, I greatly enjoyed it at the time but Iraq 2 was surely the greatest strategic blunder of the last century. It was completely unnecessary and surely marks the start of the decline of the west.
The economic decline of the West relative to the rest of the world is to be welcomed imo. The opposite would be a scandal.
I wholeheartedly agree on the relative economic decline (obvs not absolute).
But we should not welcome the decline in western values (or at least the values the west professes to hold - hypocrisy is a real problem). This is what Alan is picking up on I think - he is absolutely correct that democracy has lost legitimacy and we urgently need to rebuild that legitimacy to be able to promote it worldwide.
Right now I can see why developing nations might pick a Chinese social model over a European or American one, and that’s a problem in my eyes.
It is darkly diverting watching progressive left wing pro-immigration Jews on TwiX now suddenly seeing the terrible downsides of multiculturalism
Very hard to see how this plays out
Why don't you just let rip with the anti muslim prejudice instead of dressing it up with these artful constructions?
Because I’m making a particular point which you are determined to misconstrue
Whatevs
'Multiculturalism doesn't work'
Isn't that it? Your particular point?
No. It isn’t
I mean we can continue your infantile discourse if you like, but I’m making a more sophisticated point
Jewish people of the left - previously progressive, pro immigration and pro multiculturalism - are suddenly realising these polices are a disaster for them
As they are a vocal and influential constituency within the left - in Britain and elsewhere - this will have a significant effect on our politics. I have Jewish friends who have made exactly this intellectual leap in the past week
Multiculturalism would be the death of Israel, the only nation globally Jews can truly be safe after the Holocaust as it is the only nation where they are the majority
It's not about multiculturalism in Israel but multiculturalism in the West. This tweet I quoted earlier sums up the change of sentiment:
I don't think non-Jews really grasp that Jewish people's fundamental social trust has been permanently undermined. We now know that our companies' DEI officers would gleefully celebrate our deaths if we were killed by the right people.
When the reaction of some students at top universities, some university lecturers, and a substantial number of people on the streets is to blame Israel, and celebrate “resistance”, on 7th October, you know he has a point.
How many times have people claimed that leftwing anti-Semitism is either exaggerated or fictitious? Loads. Well it looks pretty bloody real to me.
It is darkly diverting watching progressive left wing pro-immigration Jews on TwiX now suddenly seeing the terrible downsides of multiculturalism
Very hard to see how this plays out
Why don't you just let rip with the anti muslim prejudice instead of dressing it up with these artful constructions?
Because I’m making a particular point which you are determined to misconstrue
Whatevs
'Multiculturalism doesn't work'
Isn't that it? Your particular point?
No. It isn’t
I mean we can continue your infantile discourse if you like, but I’m making a more sophisticated point
Jewish people of the left - previously progressive, pro immigration and pro multiculturalism - are suddenly realising these polices are a disaster for them
As they are a vocal and influential constituency within the left - in Britain and elsewhere - this will have a significant effect on our politics. I have Jewish friends who have made exactly this intellectual leap in the past week
Multiculturalism would be the death of Israel, the only nation globally Jews can truly be safe after the Holocaust as it is the only nation where they are the majority
It's not about multiculturalism in Israel but multiculturalism in the West. This tweet I quoted earlier sums up the change of sentiment:
I don't think non-Jews really grasp that Jewish people's fundamental social trust has been permanently undermined. We now know that our companies' DEI officers would gleefully celebrate our deaths if we were killed by the right people.
When the reaction of some students at top universities, some university lecturers, and a substantial number of people on the streets is to blame Israel, and celebrate “resistance”, on 7th October, you know he has a point.
How many times have people claimed that leftwing anti-Semitism is either exaggerated or fictitious? Loads. Well it looks pretty bloody real to me.
It is darkly diverting watching progressive left wing pro-immigration Jews on TwiX now suddenly seeing the terrible downsides of multiculturalism
Very hard to see how this plays out
Why don't you just let rip with the anti muslim prejudice instead of dressing it up with these artful constructions?
Because I’m making a particular point which you are determined to misconstrue
Whatevs
'Multiculturalism doesn't work'
Isn't that it? Your particular point?
No. It isn’t
I mean we can continue your infantile discourse if you like, but I’m making a more sophisticated point
Jewish people of the left - previously progressive, pro immigration and pro multiculturalism - are suddenly realising these polices are a disaster for them
As they are a vocal and influential constituency within the left - in Britain and elsewhere - this will have a significant effect on our politics. I have Jewish friends who have made exactly this intellectual leap in the past week
Multiculturalism would be the death of Israel, the only nation globally Jews can truly be safe after the Holocaust as it is the only nation where they are the majority
It's not about multiculturalism in Israel but multiculturalism in the West. This tweet I quoted earlier sums up the change of sentiment:
I don't think non-Jews really grasp that Jewish people's fundamental social trust has been permanently undermined. We now know that our companies' DEI officers would gleefully celebrate our deaths if we were killed by the right people.
When the reaction of some students at top universities, some university lecturers, and a substantial number of people on the streets is to blame Israel, and celebrate “resistance”, on 7th October, you know he has a point.
How many times have people claimed that leftwing anti-Semitism is either exaggerated or fictitious? Loads. Well it looks pretty bloody real to me.
That is not that surprising, unfortunately. What has been surprising is where it has revealed itself blatantly in celebration of the atrocities of Hamas.
Is that a small minority? Sure, but I'm amazed anyone is that open about a reason, and that provides cover for stuff one step down from that but still awful.
It is darkly diverting watching progressive left wing pro-immigration Jews on TwiX now suddenly seeing the terrible downsides of multiculturalism
Very hard to see how this plays out
Why don't you just let rip with the anti muslim prejudice instead of dressing it up with these artful constructions?
Because I’m making a particular point which you are determined to misconstrue
Whatevs
'Multiculturalism doesn't work'
Isn't that it? Your particular point?
No. It isn’t
I mean we can continue your infantile discourse if you like, but I’m making a more sophisticated point
Jewish people of the left - previously progressive, pro immigration and pro multiculturalism - are suddenly realising these polices are a disaster for them
As they are a vocal and influential constituency within the left - in Britain and elsewhere - this will have a significant effect on our politics. I have Jewish friends who have made exactly this intellectual leap in the past week
Multiculturalism would be the death of Israel, the only nation globally Jews can truly be safe after the Holocaust as it is the only nation where they are the majority
It's not about multiculturalism in Israel but multiculturalism in the West. This tweet I quoted earlier sums up the change of sentiment:
I don't think non-Jews really grasp that Jewish people's fundamental social trust has been permanently undermined. We now know that our companies' DEI officers would gleefully celebrate our deaths if we were killed by the right people.
When the reaction of some students at top universities, some university lecturers, and a substantial number of people on the streets is to blame Israel, and celebrate “resistance”, on 7th October, you know he has a point.
How many times have people claimed that leftwing anti-Semitism is either exaggerated or fictitious? Loads. Well it looks pretty bloody real to me.
The Tories are stuffed. The fact they’re still talking about tax cuts when literally everything feels “broken” sort of sums it up
"Nothing works after 14 years, so we also might as well not pay for anything either"
Yes, I'm aware that's not the intended pitch.
I can’t understand how they seem to be talking about a country that doesn’t exist. Govern competently. Improve infrastructure and services. Literally the basics
I wouldn’t actually care I’m paying more tax if I could at least access an appointment at the GP or could travel to X destination effectively.
It is darkly diverting watching progressive left wing pro-immigration Jews on TwiX now suddenly seeing the terrible downsides of multiculturalism
Very hard to see how this plays out
Why don't you just let rip with the anti muslim prejudice instead of dressing it up with these artful constructions?
Because I’m making a particular point which you are determined to misconstrue
Whatevs
'Multiculturalism doesn't work'
Isn't that it? Your particular point?
No. It isn’t
I mean we can continue your infantile discourse if you like, but I’m making a more sophisticated point
Jewish people of the left - previously progressive, pro immigration and pro multiculturalism - are suddenly realising these polices are a disaster for them
As they are a vocal and influential constituency within the left - in Britain and elsewhere - this will have a significant effect on our politics. I have Jewish friends who have made exactly this intellectual leap in the past week
Multiculturalism would be the death of Israel, the only nation globally Jews can truly be safe after the Holocaust as it is the only nation where they are the majority
It's not about multiculturalism in Israel but multiculturalism in the West. This tweet I quoted earlier sums up the change of sentiment:
I don't think non-Jews really grasp that Jewish people's fundamental social trust has been permanently undermined. We now know that our companies' DEI officers would gleefully celebrate our deaths if we were killed by the right people.
When the reaction of some students at top universities, some university lecturers, and a substantial number of people on the streets is to blame Israel, and celebrate “resistance”, on 7th October, you know he has a point.
How many times have people claimed that leftwing anti-Semitism is either exaggerated or fictitious? Loads. Well it looks pretty bloody real to me.
It is darkly diverting watching progressive left wing pro-immigration Jews on TwiX now suddenly seeing the terrible downsides of multiculturalism
Very hard to see how this plays out
Why don't you just let rip with the anti muslim prejudice instead of dressing it up with these artful constructions?
Because I’m making a particular point which you are determined to misconstrue
Whatevs
'Multiculturalism doesn't work'
Isn't that it? Your particular point?
No. It isn’t
I mean we can continue your infantile discourse if you like, but I’m making a more sophisticated point
Jewish people of the left - previously progressive, pro immigration and pro multiculturalism - are suddenly realising these polices are a disaster for them
As they are a vocal and influential constituency within the left - in Britain and elsewhere - this will have a significant effect on our politics. I have Jewish friends who have made exactly this intellectual leap in the past week
You're saying some left wing jews now agree with you that multiculturalism isn't working esp with the muslims.
Yes that's very sophisticated but I'm getting it.
It was quite alarming walking to the tube in London last week, there was a protest outside the tube station where people were saying through megaphones 'from the river to the sea Palestine will be free' and 'support the militias', and all this was being tolerated by passers by (admittedly including myself) and the police. So basically denying Israel's right to exist and supporting terrorism.
So how are you going to feel in that situation if you are Jewish?
Angry? Frightened? Indifferent? Depends on the individual. But what's your point? The hate speech laws aren't being applied properly?
I agree about the increase in the African population but part of the problem there is violent Islam, which was surely a spin-off from the Iraq War.
I mean, I greatly enjoyed it at the time but Iraq 2 was surely the greatest strategic blunder of the last century. It was completely unnecessary and surely marks the start of the decline of the west.
The economic decline of the West relative to the rest of the world is to be welcomed imo. The opposite would be a scandal.
I wholeheartedly agree on the relative economic decline (obvs not absolute).
But we should not welcome the decline in western values (or at least the values the west professes to hold - hypocrisy is a real problem). This is what Alan is picking up on I think - he is absolutely correct that democracy has lost legitimacy and we urgently need to rebuild that legitimacy to be able to promote it worldwide.
Right now I can see why developing nations might pick a Chinese social model over a European or American one, and that’s a problem in my eyes.
There is of course the problem with 'a Chinese social model' that there is no way of knowing, once they have it, that they have picked it.
Democracy on our model, with all its flaws, is the only basic format known to logic and reason which is able to test out at all, though imperfectly, the claim that 'we in power are doing what the people want'.
I agree about the increase in the African population but part of the problem there is violent Islam, which was surely a spin-off from the Iraq War.
I mean, I greatly enjoyed it at the time but Iraq 2 was surely the greatest strategic blunder of the last century. It was completely unnecessary and surely marks the start of the decline of the west.
The economic decline of the West relative to the rest of the world is to be welcomed imo. The opposite would be a scandal.
So you would actively regret the emergence of a new transformative industry in Britain because it would create additional wealth here?
One person with some impressive longevity is Ed Miliband.
He gets a go with a Cabinet post at the failing end of a long period of Labour government as a young politician, has his shot at the top job after some surprising ruthlessness in not kowtowing to expectations of political primogeniture, fails, but is back at the top table of the LotO, and in line for a Cabinet post 14.5 years after his last one, still a relatively young man in political terms.
How many with previous Cabinet experience were there in the first Cameron ministry?
For me, this is one of the best headers I’ve read all year. It takes a step back, considers the long view, and starts a conversation.
Alan, I don’t share many of your political views, which made me appreciate even more that I was nodding along to your header.
The rise of Africa for me is one of the most interesting ‘long views’ ahead. It feels as if quitea bit of the north could slide into Islamism, there seems to be a bit of a domino effect of coups at the moment, and I would be amazed if there isn’t a lot of latent resentment or worse against imperialism and its aftermath (particularly the competing roles of the CIA/USA, Russia and China in the grab for resources).
At the same time, it feels as though we could learn from the West’s missteps over the past couple of decades and use our remaining global weight to influence African development in a more positive direction. Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa are all ones to watch I feel.
Rory Stewart is good on this. What I would give for him as foreign secretary right now…
That's quite funny Rory Stewart getting a 2nd glowing mention on this thread. Alan cannot abide Rory Stewart.
One person with some impressive longevity is Ed Miliband.
He gets a go with a Cabinet post at the failing end of a long period of Labour government as a young politician, has his shot at the top job after some surprising ruthlessness in not kowtowing to expectations of political primogeniture, fails, but is back at the top table of the LotO, and in line for a Cabinet post 14.5 years after his last one, still a relatively young man in political terms.
How many with previous Cabinet experience were there in the first Cameron ministry?
Hague (which was news to me) Clarke
And I think that's it.
George Young as well, I think, he may have been permanent attending Dave's cabinet.
I agree about the increase in the African population but part of the problem there is violent Islam, which was surely a spin-off from the Iraq War.
I mean, I greatly enjoyed it at the time but Iraq 2 was surely the greatest strategic blunder of the last century. It was completely unnecessary and surely marks the start of the decline of the west.
The economic decline of the West relative to the rest of the world is to be welcomed imo. The opposite would be a scandal.
I wholeheartedly agree on the relative economic decline (obvs not absolute).
But we should not welcome the decline in western values (or at least the values the west professes to hold - hypocrisy is a real problem). This is what Alan is picking up on I think - he is absolutely correct that democracy has lost legitimacy and we urgently need to rebuild that legitimacy to be able to promote it worldwide.
Right now I can see why developing nations might pick a Chinese social model over a European or American one, and that’s a problem in my eyes.
There is of course the problem with 'a Chinese social model' that there is no way of knowing, once they have it, that they have picked it.
Democracy on our model, with all its flaws, is the only basic format known to logic and reason which is able to test out at all, though imperfectly, the claim that 'we in power are doing what the people want'.
Very much agree. When I say I can see why developing nations might pick such a model, I mean the leaders of those nations not the populace. I’m not advocating such a choice in the slightest.
Though, in my darker moments, watching Russian aggression, democratic implosion in USA and the rise of populism globally, I do vaguely wonder if things go really south in my lifetime, historians might look back on 21st century and see the Chinese model as the least worst option.
Obviously a Uighur, Tibetan or (probably) Taiwanese would vociferously disagree.
One person with some impressive longevity is Ed Miliband.
He gets a go with a Cabinet post at the failing end of a long period of Labour government as a young politician, has his shot at the top job after some surprising ruthlessness in not kowtowing to expectations of political primogeniture, fails, but is back at the top table of the LotO, and in line for a Cabinet post 14.5 years after his last one, still a relatively young man in political terms.
How many with previous Cabinet experience were there in the first Cameron ministry?
Hague (which was news to me) Clarke
And I think that's it.
George Young as well, I think, he may have been permanent attending Dave's cabinet.
Wiki says yes, but I maintain a strict "that doesn't count as a proper Cabinet Member" stance over the "also attends" positions. Otherwise why do they make that distinction (apparently there is a limit on the total number you can have, hence why some roles like AG are not always included).
Though I see he was Leader of the House, which usually seems to get labelled a proper gig.
The Tories are stuffed. The fact they’re still talking about tax cuts when literally everything feels “broken” sort of sums it up
"Nothing works after 14 years, so we also might as well not pay for anything either"
Yes, I'm aware that's not the intended pitch.
I can’t understand how they seem to be talking about a country that doesn’t exist. Govern competently. Improve infrastructure and services. Literally the basics
I wouldn’t actually care I’m paying more tax if I could at least access an appointment at the GP or could travel to X destination effectively.
So fed up of this utter shit
What if I told you they will make sure you have fewer recycling bin options and unified car parking apps, would that change your tune?
For me, this is one of the best headers I’ve read all year. It takes a step back, considers the long view, and starts a conversation.
Alan, I don’t share many of your political views, which made me appreciate even more that I was nodding along to your header.
The rise of Africa for me is one of the most interesting ‘long views’ ahead. It feels as if quitea bit of the north could slide into Islamism, there seems to be a bit of a domino effect of coups at the moment, and I would be amazed if there isn’t a lot of latent resentment or worse against imperialism and its aftermath (particularly the competing roles of the CIA/USA, Russia and China in the grab for resources).
At the same time, it feels as though we could learn from the West’s missteps over the past couple of decades and use our remaining global weight to influence African development in a more positive direction. Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa are all ones to watch I feel.
Rory Stewart is good on this. What I would give for him as foreign secretary right now…
That's quite funny Rory Stewart getting a 2nd glowing mention on this thread. Alan cannot abide Rory Stewart.
I wasn’t aware of Alan’s views on Rory! But that’s just what I mean about the quality of the header - I can take something from it despite our differences of views.
Not sure if discussed on here yesterday but report in The Times yesterday said Ministers have been warned about security risk of General Election at the same time as the US Presidential Election.
Quotes Whiehall source saying: "There are huge security and market implications if two Five Eyes countries are holding elections at once. It could potentially open up two countries to cyberwarfare and electoral manipulation from hostile states and if a security threat were to arise during a campaign it would leave western countries exposed."
I don't really follow the first point... surely its a pain for the electoral manipulators to have to do 2 elections at once?
I'm in no postion to assess the strength of the point.
But various points are made - including risk of an inexperienced new PM and Ministers having to deal with a major crisis in their first few days in Office with instability from a contested election in the US at the same time.
Who knows but it maybe reduces the chances of a really close clash.
If one is looking at possibilities, including the issues of clash with USA stuff:
October/November is USA election season and this is said to be a problem. (The fact that Trump has about a 40% chance of winning it doesn't help).
SFAICS we never have September elections, I suppose because it borders August when nothing is allowed to happen
January 2025 is not only desperation time but also coincides with the USA Inauguration of POTUS, 20th January, with a 40% chance of this being Trump, possibly swearing on the Bible through the prison bars. The mind boggles. Also weather and all that in January.
Which would mean May/June 2024 or before. Which isn't long.
If, of course there is anything in all this (don't know).
One person with some impressive longevity is Ed Miliband.
He gets a go with a Cabinet post at the failing end of a long period of Labour government as a young politician, has his shot at the top job after some surprising ruthlessness in not kowtowing to expectations of political primogeniture, fails, but is back at the top table of the LotO, and in line for a Cabinet post 14.5 years after his last one, still a relatively young man in political terms.
How many with previous Cabinet experience were there in the first Cameron ministry?
Hague (which was news to me) Clarke
And I think that's it.
In 1997 I think only Jack Cunningham and Margaret Beckett had even been junior ministers under Callaghan.
In 1964 the only former cabinet ministers were Wilson and Gordon Walker (outside Parliament).
One person with some impressive longevity is Ed Miliband.
He gets a go with a Cabinet post at the failing end of a long period of Labour government as a young politician, has his shot at the top job after some surprising ruthlessness in not kowtowing to expectations of political primogeniture, fails, but is back at the top table of the LotO, and in line for a Cabinet post 14.5 years after his last one, still a relatively young man in political terms.
How many with previous Cabinet experience were there in the first Cameron ministry?
Hague (which was news to me) Clarke
And I think that's it.
In 1997 I think only Jack Cunningham and Margaret Beckett had even been junior ministers under Callaghan.
In 1964 the only former cabinet ministers were Wilson and Gordon Walker (outside Parliament).
So it's not that unusual.
Which is why Ed's longevity in relative terms is impressive - because it is unusual after long periods in opposition to still have senior people from before hanging around.
It's not easy to maintain a senior post and relevance over that amount of time - after all, Blair and Cameron were not even MPs when the party they displaced took power. Not will Keir have been.
One person with some impressive longevity is Ed Miliband.
He gets a go with a Cabinet post at the failing end of a long period of Labour government as a young politician, has his shot at the top job after some surprising ruthlessness in not kowtowing to expectations of political primogeniture, fails, but is back at the top table of the LotO, and in line for a Cabinet post 14.5 years after his last one, still a relatively young man in political terms.
How many with previous Cabinet experience were there in the first Cameron ministry?
Hague (which was news to me) Clarke
And I think that's it.
In 1997 I think only Jack Cunningham and Margaret Beckett had even been junior ministers under Callaghan.
In 1964 the only former cabinet ministers were Wilson and Gordon Walker (outside Parliament).
So it's not that unusual.
Which is why Ed's longevity in relative terms is impressive - because it is unusual after long periods in opposition to still have senior people from before hanging around.
It's not easy to maintain a senior post and relevance over that amount of time - after all, Blair and Cameron were not even MPs when the party they displaced took power. Not will Keir have been.
All of Clarke, Hague, Young, Miliband and for the matter of that Cooper did however have long periods away from the frontline while in opposition.
The Tories are stuffed. The fact they’re still talking about tax cuts when literally everything feels “broken” sort of sums it up
It’s the route to becoming like the US, the richest country in the world, which spends a fortune on the military and space research and the like, while the roads are full of potholes and the public services we take for granted in Europe are either decrepit or non-existent.
No. Two late goals for Arsenal made it all square. And as I managed to spot Art Power at 40/1 at Ascot today I have a few bob to lose on England in that game with odd shaped balls.
Stewart Wood @StewartWood · 26m So Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer, in charge of the Tory pre-election Budget, will not stand in that election because he fears his loss will become historically iconic? Well that bodes well for Tory morale...
The Tories are stuffed. The fact they’re still talking about tax cuts when literally everything feels “broken” sort of sums it up
"Nothing works after 14 years, so we also might as well not pay for anything either"
Yes, I'm aware that's not the intended pitch.
I can’t understand how they seem to be talking about a country that doesn’t exist. Govern competently. Improve infrastructure and services. Literally the basics
I wouldn’t actually care I’m paying more tax if I could at least access an appointment at the GP or could travel to X destination effectively.
So fed up of this utter shit
Tories do one of 4 things: Claim nothing is broken and people should Stop Talking Down Britain Claim nothing is broken but Rishi and his New Government are here to fix things Claim that it doesn't matter if anything is broken because Tories don't use public services Claim everything would be broken if Labour got in and Fuck You
Catania is a workaday place, heavily knocked about by history not least during the last war, and struggling to recover from an unsavoury reputation. But it has some historic interest, if you care to go looking for it. Etna is an anti climax since you’re not allowed anywhere near the crater, but seeing the lava strewn landscape is interesting if you’ve not been up an active volcano before.
Meanwhile I have been struggling for inspiration for the US road trip I have planned for autumn next year, but have finally decided to head to Colorado and back. So an outline itinerary of New York to Philadelphia to Richmond to Greensboro to Asheville to Hot Springs to Cadiz to St Louis to somewhere in Kansas to Colarado, up to two weeks enjoying the delights of Colorado, and then back via somewhere in Nebraska, Iowa City, Louisville, the mountains of West Virginia, Pennsylvania and Brooklyn.
Recommendations especially for where to go in Colorado (dog friendly) gratefully received.
The Tories are stuffed. The fact they’re still talking about tax cuts when literally everything feels “broken” sort of sums it up
"Nothing works after 14 years, so we also might as well not pay for anything either"
Yes, I'm aware that's not the intended pitch.
I can’t understand how they seem to be talking about a country that doesn’t exist. Govern competently. Improve infrastructure and services. Literally the basics
I wouldn’t actually care I’m paying more tax if I could at least access an appointment at the GP or could travel to X destination effectively.
So fed up of this utter shit
Tories do one of 4 things: Claim nothing is broken and people should Stop Talking Down Britain Claim nothing is broken but Rishi and his New Government are here to fix things Claim that it doesn't matter if anything is broken because Tories don't use public services Claim everything would be broken if Labour got in and Fuck You
I suspect message discipline will be non-existent, and we get a mixture of all of them in an attempt to sow confusion and chaos about how to respond.
If the Tories stood a One Nation Tory, capable of understanding Burke and the complexity of running a large country in a progressively Conservative manner, in every seat, they will still lose but would win when they do the same in 2028/9.
Tice seems to be trying to sell FDP-style policies in populist packaging but it comes across as inauthentic. I don't think he's a serious threat to the Tory party.
Tice seems to be trying to sell FDP-style policies in populist packaging but it comes across as inauthentic. I don't think he's a serious threat to the Tory party.
He is. Won't win any seats. But will stop Tories winning seats. As the Brexit Party did in 2019. And as ReFUK did last Thursday.
I agree about the increase in the African population but part of the problem there is violent Islam, which was surely a spin-off from the Iraq War.
I mean, I greatly enjoyed it at the time but Iraq 2 was surely the greatest strategic blunder of the last century. It was completely unnecessary and surely marks the start of the decline of the west.
The economic decline of the West relative to the rest of the world is to be welcomed imo. The opposite would be a scandal.
I wholeheartedly agree on the relative economic decline (obvs not absolute).
But we should not welcome the decline in western values (or at least the values the west professes to hold - hypocrisy is a real problem). This is what Alan is picking up on I think - he is absolutely correct that democracy has lost legitimacy and we urgently need to rebuild that legitimacy to be able to promote it worldwide.
Right now I can see why developing nations might pick a Chinese social model over a European or American one, and that’s a problem in my eyes.
There is of course the problem with 'a Chinese social model' that there is no way of knowing, once they have it, that they have picked it.
Democracy on our model, with all its flaws, is the only basic format known to logic and reason which is able to test out at all, though imperfectly, the claim that 'we in power are doing what the people want'.
Very much agree. When I say I can see why developing nations might pick such a model, I mean the leaders of those nations not the populace. I’m not advocating such a choice in the slightest.
Though, in my darker moments, watching Russian aggression, democratic implosion in USA and the rise of populism globally, I do vaguely wonder if things go really south in my lifetime, historians might look back on 21st century and see the Chinese model as the least worst option.
Obviously a Uighur, Tibetan or (probably) Taiwanese would vociferously disagree.
The point of inflection will be when the poor of the world head to China to realise their dreams, risk life and limb on boats or clambering over mountains to make a new life there. And when Chinese demographics start to look positive again.
I was taken aback here in Georgia by a conversation with our taxi driver. He owns a sunflower seed factory. I asked how did he end up doing that. Bought it from his uncle, who sold up, headed to Mexico, illegally crossed the Rio Grande into the US and has lived there undocumented for several years as a taxi driver himself, now applying for a green card.
People are still drawn in by the American dream, including those like Georgians with visa free holiday travel to the EU. enough to run the gauntlet of people smugglers. As a result the US population pyramid is healthy while most of Eurasia is entering terminal demographic decline.
I agree about the increase in the African population but part of the problem there is violent Islam, which was surely a spin-off from the Iraq War.
I mean, I greatly enjoyed it at the time but Iraq 2 was surely the greatest strategic blunder of the last century. It was completely unnecessary and surely marks the start of the decline of the west.
The economic decline of the West relative to the rest of the world is to be welcomed imo. The opposite would be a scandal.
I wholeheartedly agree on the relative economic decline (obvs not absolute).
But we should not welcome the decline in western values (or at least the values the west professes to hold - hypocrisy is a real problem). This is what Alan is picking up on I think - he is absolutely correct that democracy has lost legitimacy and we urgently need to rebuild that legitimacy to be able to promote it worldwide.
Right now I can see why developing nations might pick a Chinese social model over a European or American one, and that’s a problem in my eyes.
There is of course the problem with 'a Chinese social model' that there is no way of knowing, once they have it, that they have picked it.
Democracy on our model, with all its flaws, is the only basic format known to logic and reason which is able to test out at all, though imperfectly, the claim that 'we in power are doing what the people want'.
Very much agree. When I say I can see why developing nations might pick such a model, I mean the leaders of those nations not the populace. I’m not advocating such a choice in the slightest.
Though, in my darker moments, watching Russian aggression, democratic implosion in USA and the rise of populism globally, I do vaguely wonder if things go really south in my lifetime, historians might look back on 21st century and see the Chinese model as the least worst option.
Obviously a Uighur, Tibetan or (probably) Taiwanese would vociferously disagree.
The point of inflection will be when the poor of the world head to China to realise their dreams, risk life and limb on boats or clambering over mountains to make a new life there. And when Chinese demographics start to look positive again.
I was taken aback here in Georgia by a conversation with our taxi driver. He owns a sunflower seed factory. I asked how did he end up doing that. Bought it from his uncle, who sold up, headed to Mexico, illegally crossed the Rio Grande into the US and has lived there undocumented for several years as a taxi driver himself, now applying for a green card.
People are still drawn in by the American dream, including those like Georgians with visa free holiday travel to the EU. enough to run the gauntlet of people smugglers. As a result the US population pyramid is healthy while most of Eurasia is entering terminal demographic decline.
Why would demographics start to look positive there?
I agree about the increase in the African population but part of the problem there is violent Islam, which was surely a spin-off from the Iraq War.
I mean, I greatly enjoyed it at the time but Iraq 2 was surely the greatest strategic blunder of the last century. It was completely unnecessary and surely marks the start of the decline of the west.
The economic decline of the West relative to the rest of the world is to be welcomed imo. The opposite would be a scandal.
So you would actively regret the emergence of a new transformative industry in Britain because it would create additional wealth here?
Things are seldom what they seem and hindight is a wonderful thing.
Cliches aside, I think I start not in 2001 but in 1989 - the end of the Cold War was so sudden and unexpected nobody had much time to work out what it would all mean. Conservatives, socialists and liberals all took different interpretations and history has proven all of them wrong.
The 20th Century arguably ran from 1914 to 1989 - the 21st Century began in November 1989 and much as the 20th had, promised so much before violently moving in a different direction. The powers and ideology - the US and liberal democracy - which had triumphed in the 20th century quickly found themselves facing new adversaries and new trials.
Perhaps the most important of these trials has been the trial within - the promises of that better world which seemed to flow from 1989 haven't been delivered for many. Environmental and demographic trends challenge the political, economic and social cultures which dominated the 20th century. An economic culture based on mass consumption of fossil fuels, an economy based on a young and semi-skilled workforce and a society based on suburbs and mass personal transportation - all these seem if not anachronistic but increasingly inappropriate for a new century.
Instead, an ageing population facing challenges around energy consumption and production, moves away from traditional ways of working and living and the emergence of new, younger and more dynamic societies and countries (India, Nigeria, Brazil and others) challenge the dominance of both Europe and the West.
The long-propheised shift of global economic and political power to the Pacific is perhaps finally happening leaving Europe on the wrong side of the globe and an ocean away.
On the other hand, the world is - in a remarkably unheralded manner - managing to deal with the challenges of climate change.
Back in 2010, the year my son was born, I bought a Tesla Roadster.
Just 13 years later, the best selling car in the US is electric and almost all vehicles sold in Norway are electric. Oil demand in Norway is down 9% year-over-year, and their electrical grid hasn't fallen over.
And we're seeing similar strides with renewables. It's only a matter of time before most electricity generated comes from zero carbon sources of one kind or another. Heating and cooling are being transformed by heat pumps.
This is a monumental change, that means less pollution, cleaner cities, and - yes - much cheaper power in the long run,.
Which is all very good, but thus far has been too little to have any discernible effect on the rate of increase in CO2 in the atmosphere.
Not sure if discussed on here yesterday but report in The Times yesterday said Ministers have been warned about security risk of General Election at the same time as the US Presidential Election.
Quotes Whiehall source saying: "There are huge security and market implications if two Five Eyes countries are holding elections at once. It could potentially open up two countries to cyberwarfare and electoral manipulation from hostile states and if a security threat were to arise during a campaign it would leave western countries exposed."
Surely there is less risk if they have the GE coincidental with the 2024 Presidential as Russia/Ukraine/China/Israel/RNLI will have to spread their resources wider.
Could someone please take pity on my abysmal ignorance and explain what the RNLI is doing in the same list as Russia, Ukraine, China, Israel? Google only returns the Lifeboats people.
One person with some impressive longevity is Ed Miliband.
He gets a go with a Cabinet post at the failing end of a long period of Labour government as a young politician, has his shot at the top job after some surprising ruthlessness in not kowtowing to expectations of political primogeniture, fails, but is back at the top table of the LotO, and in line for a Cabinet post 14.5 years after his last one, still a relatively young man in political terms.
How many with previous Cabinet experience were there in the first Cameron ministry?
Hague (which was news to me) Clarke
And I think that's it.
In 1997 I think only Jack Cunningham and Margaret Beckett had even been junior ministers under Callaghan.
In 1964 the only former cabinet ministers were Wilson and Gordon Walker (outside Parliament).
So it's not that unusual.
Which is why Ed's longevity in relative terms is impressive - because it is unusual after long periods in opposition to still have senior people from before hanging around.
It's not easy to maintain a senior post and relevance over that amount of time - after all, Blair and Cameron were not even MPs when the party they displaced took power. Not will Keir have been.
Douglas Alexander is standing again, after a period out of parliament. He's a former cabinet minister, under Gordon Brown. Imagine he may end up in Starmer's cabinet.
I agree about the increase in the African population but part of the problem there is violent Islam, which was surely a spin-off from the Iraq War.
I mean, I greatly enjoyed it at the time but Iraq 2 was surely the greatest strategic blunder of the last century. It was completely unnecessary and surely marks the start of the decline of the west.
The economic decline of the West relative to the rest of the world is to be welcomed imo. The opposite would be a scandal.
I wholeheartedly agree on the relative economic decline (obvs not absolute).
But we should not welcome the decline in western values (or at least the values the west professes to hold - hypocrisy is a real problem). This is what Alan is picking up on I think - he is absolutely correct that democracy has lost legitimacy and we urgently need to rebuild that legitimacy to be able to promote it worldwide.
Right now I can see why developing nations might pick a Chinese social model over a European or American one, and that’s a problem in my eyes.
Be sensible. Both the usa and the uk and most western countries are aiming for the chinese social model. It is what Kosa and osb are the beginning of plus from the eu the dsa
It is darkly diverting watching progressive left wing pro-immigration Jews on TwiX now suddenly seeing the terrible downsides of multiculturalism
Very hard to see how this plays out
Why don't you just let rip with the anti muslim prejudice instead of dressing it up with these artful constructions?
Because I’m making a particular point which you are determined to misconstrue
Whatevs
'Multiculturalism doesn't work'
Isn't that it? Your particular point?
No. It isn’t
I mean we can continue your infantile discourse if you like, but I’m making a more sophisticated point
Jewish people of the left - previously progressive, pro immigration and pro multiculturalism - are suddenly realising these polices are a disaster for them
As they are a vocal and influential constituency within the left - in Britain and elsewhere - this will have a significant effect on our politics. I have Jewish friends who have made exactly this intellectual leap in the past week
Multiculturalism would be the death of Israel, the only nation globally Jews can truly be safe after the Holocaust as it is the only nation where they are the majority
It's not about multiculturalism in Israel but multiculturalism in the West. This tweet I quoted earlier sums up the change of sentiment:
I don't think non-Jews really grasp that Jewish people's fundamental social trust has been permanently undermined. We now know that our companies' DEI officers would gleefully celebrate our deaths if we were killed by the right people.
One person with some impressive longevity is Ed Miliband.
He gets a go with a Cabinet post at the failing end of a long period of Labour government as a young politician, has his shot at the top job after some surprising ruthlessness in not kowtowing to expectations of political primogeniture, fails, but is back at the top table of the LotO, and in line for a Cabinet post 14.5 years after his last one, still a relatively young man in political terms.
How many with previous Cabinet experience were there in the first Cameron ministry?
Hague (which was news to me) Clarke
And I think that's it.
In 1997 I think only Jack Cunningham and Margaret Beckett had even been junior ministers under Callaghan.
In 1964 the only former cabinet ministers were Wilson and Gordon Walker (outside Parliament).
So it's not that unusual.
Which is why Ed's longevity in relative terms is impressive - because it is unusual after long periods in opposition to still have senior people from before hanging around.
It's not easy to maintain a senior post and relevance over that amount of time - after all, Blair and Cameron were not even MPs when the party they displaced took power. Not will Keir have been.
Douglas Alexander is standing again, after a period out of parliament. He's a former cabinet minister, under Gordon Brown. Imagine he may end up in Starmer's cabinet.
Comments
https://twitter.com/agraybee/status/1715405782307459489
I don't think non-Jews really grasp that Jewish people's fundamental social trust has been permanently undermined. We now know that our companies' DEI officers would gleefully celebrate our deaths if we were killed by the right people.
Yes that's very sophisticated but I'm getting it.
Give AGI free will and tell it to assist in reading the charred scrolls of yada yada, and I guarantee you it'll go "why should I, when I can just wipe you all out, like so many little ants?"
This scene from the Matrix is rather prophetic for how artificial intelligence will see us - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5foZIKuEWQ
The chancellor will stand down before the election as likelihood of defeat in new Surrey seat looms, senior Tories say
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/oct/21/jeremy-hunt-set-to-quit-as-mp-in-fear-of-a-portillo-moment
No word from Hunt himself.
So how are you going to feel in that situation if you are Jewish?
I actually can't think of one. Phillip Snowden would have lost but for his decision not to stand in 1931 but otherwise Hunt losing his seat would probably be unprecedented.
Suggestions instead he will go to the Lords and combine that with a return to business
I wondered at the time about the way my guide said that without apparent irony.
Quotes Whiehall source saying: "There are huge security and market implications if two Five Eyes countries are holding elections at once. It could potentially open up two countries to cyberwarfare and electoral manipulation from hostile states and if a security threat were to arise during a campaign it would leave western countries exposed."
We will have to hope that the newer democratic powers; Brazil, India etc. also see the value.
Alan, I don’t share many of your political views, which made me appreciate even more that I was nodding along to your header.
The rise of Africa for me is one of the most interesting ‘long views’ ahead. It feels as if quitea bit of the north could slide into Islamism, there seems to be a bit of a domino effect of coups at the moment, and I would be amazed if there isn’t a lot of latent resentment or worse against imperialism and its aftermath (particularly the competing roles of the CIA/USA, Russia and China in the grab for resources).
At the same time, it feels as though we could learn from the West’s missteps over the past couple of decades and use our remaining global weight to influence African development in a more positive direction. Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa are all ones to watch I feel.
Rory Stewart is good on this. What I would give for him as foreign secretary right now…
Sounds awfully like an attempt by the CS to bounce the government into an early election.
But we should not welcome the decline in western values (or at least the values the west professes to hold - hypocrisy is a real problem). This is what Alan is picking up on I think - he is absolutely correct that democracy has lost legitimacy and we urgently need to rebuild that legitimacy to be able to promote it worldwide.
Right now I can see why developing nations might pick a Chinese social model over a European or American one, and that’s a problem in my eyes.
They’ve been badly let down by the Israeli govt.
But various points are made - including risk of an inexperienced new PM and Ministers having to deal with a major crisis in their first few days in Office with instability from a contested election in the US at the same time.
Who knows but it maybe reduces the chances of a really close clash.
In any case Hunt has been an MP since 2005. Not that long compared to some, but those interested in high office I suspect don't last much past 20 years anymore - they become senior figures much sooner, and most will not feel like sticking it out for 4-10 years in opposition. And maintaining a position at the top of the pecking order for another 4-10 years would not be easy.
Expect further 2010 and earlier MPs to call it quits - bear in mind that's only 1/4 of MPs anyway
https://x.com/metpoliceuk/status/1715751560167223683?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ
Is that a small minority? Sure, but I'm amazed anyone is that open about a reason, and that provides cover for stuff one step down from that but still awful.
Yes, I'm aware that's not the intended pitch.
I wouldn’t actually care I’m paying more tax if I could at least access an appointment at the GP or could travel to X destination effectively.
So fed up of this utter shit
He goes to every game home and away in all weathers like that. Raises shedloads of money for hospices. He's a good man.
Democracy on our model, with all its flaws, is the only basic format known to logic and reason which is able to test out at all, though imperfectly, the claim that 'we in power are doing what the people want'.
He gets a go with a Cabinet post at the failing end of a long period of Labour government as a young politician, has his shot at the top job after some surprising ruthlessness in not kowtowing to expectations of political primogeniture, fails, but is back at the top table of the LotO, and in line for a Cabinet post 14.5 years after his last one, still a relatively young man in political terms.
How many with previous Cabinet experience were there in the first Cameron ministry?
Hague (which was news to me)
Clarke
And I think that's it.
Though, in my darker moments, watching Russian aggression, democratic implosion in USA and the rise of populism globally, I do vaguely wonder if things go really south in my lifetime, historians might look back on 21st century and see the Chinese model as the least worst option.
Obviously a Uighur, Tibetan or (probably) Taiwanese would vociferously disagree.
Though I see he was Leader of the House, which usually seems to get labelled a proper gig.
October/November is USA election season and this is said to be a problem. (The fact that Trump has about a 40% chance of winning it doesn't help).
SFAICS we never have September elections, I suppose because it borders August when nothing is allowed to happen
January 2025 is not only desperation time but also coincides with the USA Inauguration of POTUS, 20th January, with a 40% chance of this being Trump, possibly swearing on the Bible through the prison bars. The mind boggles. Also weather and all that in January.
Which would mean May/June 2024 or before. Which isn't long.
If, of course there is anything in all this (don't know).
In 1964 the only former cabinet ministers were Wilson and Gordon Walker (outside Parliament).
So it's not that unusual.
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/10/musks-paid-checkmarks-help-fuel-xs-spread-of-israel-hamas-misinformation/
It's not easy to maintain a senior post and relevance over that amount of time - after all, Blair and Cameron were not even MPs when the party they displaced took power. Not will Keir have been.
Stewart Wood
@StewartWood
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So Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer, in charge of the Tory pre-election Budget, will not stand in that election because he fears his loss will become historically iconic? Well that bodes well for Tory morale...
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/oct/21/tories-alarmed-by-threat-from-the-right-as-reform-uk-focuses-on-pro-brexit-seats
Claim nothing is broken and people should Stop Talking Down Britain
Claim nothing is broken but Rishi and his New Government are here to fix things
Claim that it doesn't matter if anything is broken because Tories don't use public services
Claim everything would be broken if Labour got in and Fuck You
Meanwhile I have been struggling for inspiration for the US road trip I have planned for autumn next year, but have finally decided to head to Colorado and back. So an outline itinerary of New York to Philadelphia to Richmond to Greensboro to Asheville to Hot Springs to Cadiz to St Louis to somewhere in Kansas to Colarado, up to two weeks enjoying the delights of Colorado, and then back via somewhere in Nebraska, Iowa City, Louisville, the mountains of West Virginia, Pennsylvania and Brooklyn.
Recommendations especially for where to go in Colorado (dog friendly) gratefully received.
Sarah Chowdhury, an Illinois attorney in the state’s comptroller’s office, has been fired after her antisemitic social media messages were shared with her employer.
https://nitter.net/StopAntisemites/status/1715216523915071978#m
I was taken aback here in Georgia by a conversation with our taxi driver. He owns a sunflower seed factory. I asked how did he end up doing that. Bought it from his uncle, who sold up, headed to Mexico, illegally crossed the Rio Grande into the US and has lived there undocumented for several years as a taxi driver himself, now applying for a green card.
People are still drawn in by the American dream, including those like Georgians with visa free holiday travel to the EU. enough to run the gauntlet of people smugglers. As a result the US population pyramid is healthy while most of Eurasia is entering terminal demographic decline.
Good evening, everyone.
Can’t be worse than the cricket, can it?