Mid Beds betting – CON and LD up while LAB down – politicalbetting.com

Luckyguy1983 said:

Anabobazina said:

The Tories will win because of the hubris of the Liberals and the sluggishness of Labour.

I might have mentioned it.

(I'm on the Tories at 2.5)

I hope you're wrong, as such an outcome would shore up Sunak's leadership.

Cookie said:

turbotubbs said:

Phil said:

AlistairM said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

One thing last night shows is that the problem of fake news isn't just confined to social media. Many 'serious' journalists seem to be witting or unwitting purveyors of disinformation.

There was a disturbing video on TwiX last night which purported to show a terrible fire inside a collapsing hospital. It’s one reason I believed the story that a hospital was collapsing

Looking at the images today, I can’t see where that fire might have occurred. Where is the ruined shell of a gutted hospital wing?

So what was that vid. Entirely fake? Doctored? Ripped from some real horror in Syria? Or maybe it was real but it looked worse than it was

🤷🏼‍♂️

Probably ripped from Syria or something like that, Hamas PR people probably have all of these clips ready to send to idiot journalists and to spread on social media.

BBC still saying that hundreds are dead. It looks from all the pictures to be a large fire in a car park. Genuinely not as big as the fire at the Luton airport car park. Hamas have lied and there are large groups in the media across the world who were only too happy to publish the lies directly with no fact checking. Contrast with the murder of the Israeli babies - how much evidence was required for that? It is total double standards and sickening.

At least one vehicle appears to be flipped over by the blast if you look at this video: https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1714560367714513400

Previous reporting stated that the areas around the hospitals have been absolutely rammed with people who were hoping to avoid the bombing. A bomb loaded with shrapnel that landed in such an area could potentially kill or maim a lot of people without doing all that much physical damage. Maybe not 500? But hundreds, sure: Fill all the space between the burnt out cars visible in that video with people & you could easily get to those kind of numbers.

It may, at this point, be impossible to get to the actual truth of what happened on the ground, but it does seem clear that this was not some massive ground penetrating Israeli bomb: There’s no crater & little to no blast damage to the surrounding buildings.

500 is a very round number. Suspiciously so. I do not believe Hamas.

I reflexively don't believe Hamas. But because they are a terrorist organisation, rather than because of the roundness of the number. Round numbers of things do crop up as often as you would expect them to. ISTR @rcs1000 posting a story once of a study which had been shown to have used fake data because of the implausibly low number of round numbers which cropped up in the data (I think there was also a further level of irony - something to the effect that it was a study into how many studies had been faked, or something).

Famously (well, slightly famously), when Mount Everest was first surveyed it was found to be exactly 29000 feet tall. The surveyors lamented that no-one would believe them, and added a spurious extra two feet onto the total.

LostPassword said:

turbotubbs said:

Leon said:

Not being able to trust your own eyes will be the weirdest thing

For 150 years we’ve had the ultimate proof. “Look, here’s a photo. Shut up”

That is coming to an end. It will challenge how we perceive reality. We go back to a pre-photographic world of rumours and reports which are far more unreliable

I think that's a stretch. We are seeing plenty of images today that refute the claims of last night. And don't forget the intelligence agencies have the ability to image from space. So if things are being faked, they will be shown up.

What I find fascinating is how willing people are to believe anything Hamas says. I don't believe a word of what they claim. I don't believe their claims of how many have been killed in the last week. When I posted this the other day posters jumped down my throat spouting rubbish that it was aid agencies reporting etc. Well yes, but they are 'reporting' what they get told, not going round counting bodies.

People are expecting the Israeli bombardment to cause civilian casualties because, well, when has this sort of aerial bombardment ever not caused civilian casualties? And so it's pretty easy to believe reports of civilian casualties, because what did you think was going to happen?

It's another example of people having already made their mind up and interpreting new evidence to fit that opinion.

Sandpit said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Leon said:

I wonder if either side really *knows* what happened at that hospital. You’ve got two large armies firing crazy amounts of shit at each other in an area the size of Newent - a Newent packed with fuel reserves for generators and ammo for fighting

There could be two dozen explanations for this, pointing at multiple culprits. So then it becomes a race to win the PR war and seize the narrative

“500 dead in bomb-shattered hospital” is a much better headline than “dozens dead in hospital car park fire” - even though both are horrible

Equally, “40 babies beheaded” is a much better headline than “a number of children murdered” - even though both are horrible

I'm inclined to believe the Israelis here. If it was them I think (from past experience) their approach would be 'Sorry about that. But wars is war. Let's move one' rather than try to construct convoluted conspiracy theories.

That’s the difference between the two sides here. Israel will kill civilians in error and apologise for it, whereas the Hamas terrorists decided that women and children at a music festival were fair game for rape and murder.

Leon said:

Alanbrooke said:

The BBC is not having a good war

- it holds back on massacres in Israel until they are verified
- pumps Hamas line on the hospital without checking
- wont label Hamas as terrorist despite that being UK policy
- says it must remain impartial when civilians are being beheaded etc., when civilisation exists on calling out such behaviour

I cant help but think there will be a reckoning when this all dies down.

It may seem trivial but I think their coverage of the Aussie Voice referendum was WORSE. There wasn’t even an attempt at balance. It was more slanted than the Guardian. The referendum proposal was a good thing and people voting No were misinformed racists

MaxPB said:

david_herdson said:

david_herdson said:

TOPPING said:

jamesdoyle said:

MaxPB said:

In other news Biden has condemned Hamas for the hospital incident. Israel had the receipts this time and good thing too. Israel will need to ensure that 24/7 surveillance of civilian infrastructure is in place because Hamas will stage more attacks on their own people and attempt to point the finger at Israel.

It's a bit of leap from 'rocket misfire' to 'stage an attack on their own people'. Some people were quick to judgement last night and condemned the IDF on what now seems a pretty shaky basis. Some people were quick to condemn Hamas, and produced what was then some pretty shaky evidence. The latter complained about Hamas and supporters of Palestine for trying to frame this in a way to set people's perceptions. Your comment appears very much to be doing the same, from the other side.

I don't think (or I want to not think, not that it's impossible) that Hamas fired deliberately on their own people. Perhaps, who knows, they had some kind of controlled explosion there.

Much more likely, however, is that there was a misfire, the thing exploded on launch, and they didn't waste the opportunity to use that to blame it on Israel and create a hoo-ha on the eve of POTUS' visit.

But I will now cease ridiculous speculation because it is just that and helps nothing.

I do absolutely think that whatever happened it was interesting that, like Oct 7th vs the Saudi peace deal, it happened when it happened.

/Tin foil hat off./

If it was an accident, it was a hell of an unlucky one.

For a single rocket to misfire and then drop into the crowded grounds of a hospital, given everywhere else it could have fallen, and given how many other rockets have been launched without problem, for the warhead not to detonate as part of the misfire, or on launch.

However, the more rockets are launched, the greater the chances that some will go wrong - and coincidences do happen; indeed, are to be expected as part of the law of large numbers.

What does seem highly implausible to me is that a rocket could be made to misfire and then drop onto hospital grounds. The control that would be needed to hit a target so accurately with malfunctioning equipment is phenomenal.

So if it wasn't an accident then it seems much more likely to me that it was a ground explosion from a bomb already on site, with the rocket falling elsewhere (shouldn't that have produced an explosion on landing too? Not if there wasn't a warhead on it. Shouldn't we have seen it land anyway? Probably not in the dark, particularly with a genuine explosion occurring. There should, however, still be impact damage visible somewhere).

I should have mentioned the target: a Christian-run hospital. In PR terms, if you wanted to appeal to the emotions of the West, what would do more so? Many vulnerable victims, plus the religious angle. Again, it's a striking coincidence that the explosion hit one of the few religiously-related but not Islamic sites in Gaza. But if you're a cynical fundamentalist Islamist from Hamas, you must have at best ambivalent thoughts about Christians operating there at all. Would they think less of bombing infidel facilities and those using them? Yes, I think they would.

This is something my wife mentioned last night, the alleged attack was on an infidel run hospital. It's what made her very suspicious about who actually did it.

Peter_the_Punter said:

Cookie said:

turbotubbs said:

Phil said:

AlistairM said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

One thing last night shows is that the problem of fake news isn't just confined to social media. Many 'serious' journalists seem to be witting or unwitting purveyors of disinformation.

There was a disturbing video on TwiX last night which purported to show a terrible fire inside a collapsing hospital. It’s one reason I believed the story that a hospital was collapsing

Looking at the images today, I can’t see where that fire might have occurred. Where is the ruined shell of a gutted hospital wing?

So what was that vid. Entirely fake? Doctored? Ripped from some real horror in Syria? Or maybe it was real but it looked worse than it was

🤷🏼‍♂️

Probably ripped from Syria or something like that, Hamas PR people probably have all of these clips ready to send to idiot journalists and to spread on social media.

BBC still saying that hundreds are dead. It looks from all the pictures to be a large fire in a car park. Genuinely not as big as the fire at the Luton airport car park. Hamas have lied and there are large groups in the media across the world who were only too happy to publish the lies directly with no fact checking. Contrast with the murder of the Israeli babies - how much evidence was required for that? It is total double standards and sickening.

At least one vehicle appears to be flipped over by the blast if you look at this video: https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1714560367714513400

Previous reporting stated that the areas around the hospitals have been absolutely rammed with people who were hoping to avoid the bombing. A bomb loaded with shrapnel that landed in such an area could potentially kill or maim a lot of people without doing all that much physical damage. Maybe not 500? But hundreds, sure: Fill all the space between the burnt out cars visible in that video with people & you could easily get to those kind of numbers.

It may, at this point, be impossible to get to the actual truth of what happened on the ground, but it does seem clear that this was not some massive ground penetrating Israeli bomb: There’s no crater & little to no blast damage to the surrounding buildings.

500 is a very round number. Suspiciously so. I do not believe Hamas.

I reflexively don't believe Hamas. But because they are a terrorist organisation, rather than because of the roundness of the number. Round numbers of things do crop up as often as you would expect them to. ISTR @rcs1000 posting a story once of a study which had been shown to have used fake data because of the implausibly low number of round numbers which cropped up in the data (I think there was also a further level of irony - something to the effect that it was a study into how many studies had been faked, or something).

Famously (well, slightly famously), when Mount Everest was first surveyed it was found to be exactly 29000 feet tall. The surveyors lamented that no-one would believe them, and added a spurious extra two feet onto the total.

I've done that kind of thing with tax calculations. I certainly remember one client whose taxable profit came out as exactly zero and I adjusted it by a few quid to avoid the impression it might be an estimate.

By the way, when submitting numbers to HMRC make sure none of them divide by 52. They are bound to assume the worst.

AlistairM said:

Ummm...

BREAKING:

Palestinian media publish a picture of what they claim to be the crater caused by the explosion at the hospital in Gaza

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1714598373230088346?s=20c

AlistairM said:

Ummm...

BREAKING:

Palestinian media publish a picture of what they claim to be the crater caused by the explosion at the hospital in Gaza

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1714598373230088346?s=20c

Malmesbury said:

LostPassword said:

turbotubbs said:

Leon said:

Not being able to trust your own eyes will be the weirdest thing

For 150 years we’ve had the ultimate proof. “Look, here’s a photo. Shut up”

That is coming to an end. It will challenge how we perceive reality. We go back to a pre-photographic world of rumours and reports which are far more unreliable

I think that's a stretch. We are seeing plenty of images today that refute the claims of last night. And don't forget the intelligence agencies have the ability to image from space. So if things are being faked, they will be shown up.

What I find fascinating is how willing people are to believe anything Hamas says. I don't believe a word of what they claim. I don't believe their claims of how many have been killed in the last week. When I posted this the other day posters jumped down my throat spouting rubbish that it was aid agencies reporting etc. Well yes, but they are 'reporting' what they get told, not going round counting bodies.

People are expecting the Israeli bombardment to cause civilian casualties because, well, when has this sort of aerial bombardment ever not caused civilian casualties? And so it's pretty easy to believe reports of civilian casualties, because what did you think was going to happen?

It's another example of people having already made their mind up and interpreting new evidence to fit that opinion.

One thing that was missing was this - in every previous Israeli attack on something, tons of video from the scene of casualties, people digging through the rubble etc.

We live in age of citizen camera persons - a huge number of people walking round with video camera in their pocket, with broadcast capability included.

viewcode said:

Sandpit said:

Malmesbury said:

glw said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Alanbrooke said:

The BBC is not having a good war

- it holds back on massacres in Israel until they are verified
- pumps Hamas line on the hospital without checking
- wont label Hamas as terrorist despite that being UK policy
- says it must remain impartial when civilians are being beheaded etc., when civilisation exists on calling out such behaviour

I cant help but think there will be a reckoning when this all dies down.

There won't be. Nothing will change. It never does. It will be "they got it about right, because both sides are equally pissed at us".

Now about that BBC Verify.....

This whole reporting what both sides say only works if both sides are peers. Hamas is not a peer of the Israeli government. It's the same sort of trap where you have a news programme where a climatologist is debating with a shill for the oil industry. They aren't alike.

It’s an output of a change in education and the way people are taught to think critically.

I have seen a switch from “I believe in these principles. Because of reasons X, Y and Z.” To - “I believe in these principles. Because they are right”

The later used to be considered fatuous and shallow - we see it more and more in “main stream”.

This leads to the problem of people not being able to think critically about new things - unless they have an understanding of their own moral framework, how can they apply their own thinking to an issue?

They are stuck waiting for Twatter to tell them what to think.

We’ve come a long way from - “I counted them all out. I counted them all back.”

Universities used to teach students *how* to think, rather than *what* to think.

It rather depends on the subject. I believe lawyers are taught how to charge, engineers are taught how to build a bridge, and computer science graduates are taught how to communicate with humans. Well when I say "taught", it's "more left to fend for themselves and give a scroll to the survivors".

Sean_F said:

Leon said:

Not being able to trust your own eyes will be the weirdest thing

For 150 years we’ve had the ultimate proof. “Look, here’s a photo. Shut up”

That is coming to an end. It will challenge how we perceive reality. We go back to a pre-photographic world of rumours and reports which are far more unreliable

Photographic evidence has never been definitive.

Our ability to prove that the Holocaust took place, for example, depends much on eye-witness testimony and written records, than on photographic evidence.

So, we'll just have to be sceptical, but we can verify the truth, without just relying upon rumour. Rules of evidence were reasonably sophisticated, even before photography became common. And, people did a lot of fact-checking. A good example is the way people had to do a lot of waiting around in large communal chambers in royal courts, surrounded by lots of courtiers and other bigwigs. The intent was that if someone turned up claiming to be the Spanish ambassador, or the Earl of Devon, there would be people there who could attest to it.

FrancisUrquhart said:

AlistairM said:

Ummm...

BREAKING:

Palestinian media publish a picture of what they claim to be the crater caused by the explosion at the hospital in Gaza

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1714598373230088346?s=20c

The media have absolutely been done...

BBC reporter: "The Israeli military.. have said they are investigating, but its hard to see what else this could be, really, given the size of the explosion, other than an Israeli air strike, or several air strikes"

MaxPB said:

tlg86 said:

Starmer going on the hospital and repeating the claim that several hundred have died.

He needs to throw some red meat to the activists who are very, very unhappy with the pro-Israel stance. They want Labour to support Hamas. Hopefully these people all leave the Labour party but clearly Keith doesn't have the cojones to stare them down.

Stark_Dawning said:

Leon said:

I wonder if either side really *knows* what happened at that hospital. You’ve got two large armies firing crazy amounts of shit at each other in an area the size of Newent - a Newent packed with fuel reserves for generators and ammo for fighting

There could be two dozen explanations for this, pointing at multiple culprits. So then it becomes a race to win the PR war and seize the narrative

“500 dead in bomb-shattered hospital” is a much better headline than “dozens dead in hospital car park fire” - even though both are horrible

Equally, “40 babies beheaded” is a much better headline than “a number of children murdered” - even though both are horrible

I'm inclined to believe the Israelis here. If it was them I think (from past experience) their approach would be 'Sorry about that. But wars is war. Let's move one' rather than try to construct convoluted conspiracy theories.

Luckyguy1983 said:

SandyRentool said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Flatlander said:

LostPassword said:

Pro_Rata said:

Noting also the red weather alert for coastal areas between Dundee and Aberdeen. A red rain alert 32 hours in advance and 10 inches forecast is quite something.

The weather is moving up from Brittany now, trundles up the UK, out into the North Sea
over Lothian then just drives onto the coast and Grampians.

No doubt the hills do see big rainfall numbers at times, this wouldn't be unheard of in Cumbria or Snowdonia, but a lot of the forecast focus of the rain here is at landfall and the easternmost upslopes.

Could be a bad one.

Worth remembering that, following the summer floods of 2007, the Met Office and CEH run a joint flood forecasting centre, which brings together meteorologists and hydrologists. So if they are using a red warning for rain and subsequent flooding impacts that will be based on an understanding of the current hydrological situation in the area, and how it's likely to react to the forecast rainfall.

Not a warning to take lightly.

Particularly not if you live in Ballater, which seems to take the brunt of flooding on the River Dee.

If this looks anything like Storm Frank (2015) it will be bad. Upper Deeside was cut off and it took a long time to repair the washed out roads.

ttps://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/past-times/2774896/storm-frank-2015-floods/

If they dredged the rivers, it wouldn't happen nearly so often.

Slowing down the flow of water into rivers is the best way to prevent flooding. Along with not fecking up the climate, of course.

If the floor of the River rises consistently, it can hold less water. It's not rocket science.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Flatlander said:

LostPassword said:

Pro_Rata said:

Noting also the red weather alert for coastal areas between Dundee and Aberdeen. A red rain alert 32 hours in advance and 10 inches forecast is quite something.

The weather is moving up from Brittany now, trundles up the UK, out into the North Sea
over Lothian then just drives onto the coast and Grampians.

No doubt the hills do see big rainfall numbers at times, this wouldn't be unheard of in Cumbria or Snowdonia, but a lot of the forecast focus of the rain here is at landfall and the easternmost upslopes.

Could be a bad one.

Worth remembering that, following the summer floods of 2007, the Met Office and CEH run a joint flood forecasting centre, which brings together meteorologists and hydrologists. So if they are using a red warning for rain and subsequent flooding impacts that will be based on an understanding of the current hydrological situation in the area, and how it's likely to react to the forecast rainfall.

Not a warning to take lightly.

Particularly not if you live in Ballater, which seems to take the brunt of flooding on the River Dee.

If this looks anything like Storm Frank (2015) it will be bad. Upper Deeside was cut off and it took a long time to repair the washed out roads.

ttps://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/past-times/2774896/storm-frank-2015-floods/

If they dredged the rivers, it wouldn't happen nearly so often.

We went over this a few years ago. Dredging works on slow moving lowland rivers where there is a lot of silt accumulation. It does not work well (or at all) in most of the Northern British rivers where flow is higher so the silt doesn't get a chance to settle out.

I doubt very much if dredging will make any difference at all on the Dee. Slowing the flow higher up will do far more to help.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

SandyRentool said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Flatlander said:

LostPassword said:

Pro_Rata said:

Noting also the red weather alert for coastal areas between Dundee and Aberdeen. A red rain alert 32 hours in advance and 10 inches forecast is quite something.

The weather is moving up from Brittany now, trundles up the UK, out into the North Sea
over Lothian then just drives onto the coast and Grampians.

No doubt the hills do see big rainfall numbers at times, this wouldn't be unheard of in Cumbria or Snowdonia, but a lot of the forecast focus of the rain here is at landfall and the easternmost upslopes.

Could be a bad one.

Worth remembering that, following the summer floods of 2007, the Met Office and CEH run a joint flood forecasting centre, which brings together meteorologists and hydrologists. So if they are using a red warning for rain and subsequent flooding impacts that will be based on an understanding of the current hydrological situation in the area, and how it's likely to react to the forecast rainfall.

Not a warning to take lightly.

Particularly not if you live in Ballater, which seems to take the brunt of flooding on the River Dee.

If this looks anything like Storm Frank (2015) it will be bad. Upper Deeside was cut off and it took a long time to repair the washed out roads.

ttps://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/past-times/2774896/storm-frank-2015-floods/

If they dredged the rivers, it wouldn't happen nearly so often.

Slowing down the flow of water into rivers is the best way to prevent flooding. Along with not fecking up the climate, of course.

If the floor of the River rises consistently, it can hold less water. It's not rocket science.

No, its fluid dynamics which is considerably more complicated.

Sandpit said:

viewcode said:

Sandpit said:

Malmesbury said:

glw said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Alanbrooke said:

The BBC is not having a good war

- it holds back on massacres in Israel until they are verified
- pumps Hamas line on the hospital without checking
- wont label Hamas as terrorist despite that being UK policy
- says it must remain impartial when civilians are being beheaded etc., when civilisation exists on calling out such behaviour

I cant help but think there will be a reckoning when this all dies down.

There won't be. Nothing will change. It never does. It will be "they got it about right, because both sides are equally pissed at us".

Now about that BBC Verify.....

This whole reporting what both sides say only works if both sides are peers. Hamas is not a peer of the Israeli government. It's the same sort of trap where you have a news programme where a climatologist is debating with a shill for the oil industry. They aren't alike.

It’s an output of a change in education and the way people are taught to think critically.

I have seen a switch from “I believe in these principles. Because of reasons X, Y and Z.” To - “I believe in these principles. Because they are right”

The later used to be considered fatuous and shallow - we see it more and more in “main stream”.

This leads to the problem of people not being able to think critically about new things - unless they have an understanding of their own moral framework, how can they apply their own thinking to an issue?

They are stuck waiting for Twatter to tell them what to think.

We’ve come a long way from - “I counted them all out. I counted them all back.”

Universities used to teach students *how* to think, rather than *what* to think.

It rather depends on the subject. I believe lawyers are taught how to charge, engineers are taught how to build a bridge, and computer science graduates are taught how to communicate with humans. Well when I say "taught", it's "more left to fend for themselves and give a scroll to the survivors".

CS graduates can communicate with humans?

Cicero said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Flatlander said:

LostPassword said:

Pro_Rata said:

Noting also the red weather alert for coastal areas between Dundee and Aberdeen. A red rain alert 32 hours in advance and 10 inches forecast is quite something.

The weather is moving up from Brittany now, trundles up the UK, out into the North Sea
over Lothian then just drives onto the coast and Grampians.

No doubt the hills do see big rainfall numbers at times, this wouldn't be unheard of in Cumbria or Snowdonia, but a lot of the forecast focus of the rain here is at landfall and the easternmost upslopes.

Could be a bad one.

Worth remembering that, following the summer floods of 2007, the Met Office and CEH run a joint flood forecasting centre, which brings together meteorologists and hydrologists. So if they are using a red warning for rain and subsequent flooding impacts that will be based on an understanding of the current hydrological situation in the area, and how it's likely to react to the forecast rainfall.

Not a warning to take lightly.

Particularly not if you live in Ballater, which seems to take the brunt of flooding on the River Dee.

If this looks anything like Storm Frank (2015) it will be bad. Upper Deeside was cut off and it took a long time to repair the washed out roads.

ttps://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/past-times/2774896/storm-frank-2015-floods/

If they dredged the rivers, it wouldn't happen nearly so often.

Dredging the Dee, arguably the finest salmon river in the world, would be an act of purest vandalism.

tlg86 said:

Private Eye struggling with the 7 October attacks:

https://twitter.com/PrivateEyeNews/status/1714545102977421797

Leon said:

Here is - no joke - virtually the only photo of the Armenian genocide in action (there is no gore)

It shows Armenians being marched out of a town - into the deserts where they were killed in their thousands: starved, drowned, pushed over cliffs. Dozens of children were tied together and thrown in rivers

It was an unspeakable crime yet we have about four photos and this is one




So we forget. We don’t even learn in the first place

tlg86 said:

The SNP leader in Westminster calling for a ceasefire without also calling for the release of hostages.

FrancisUrquhart said:

tlg86 said:

Private Eye struggling with the 7 October attacks:

https://twitter.com/PrivateEyeNews/status/1714545102977421797

Is that supposed to be funny? Or a statement of their editorial position on the matter.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

tlg86 said:

Private Eye struggling with the 7 October attacks:

https://twitter.com/PrivateEyeNews/status/1714545102977421797

https://twitter.com/judecambridge/status/1714586246746390594

Richard_Tyndall said:

Carnyx said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

SandyRentool said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Flatlander said:

LostPassword said:

Pro_Rata said:

Noting also the red weather alert for coastal areas between Dundee and Aberdeen. A red rain alert 32 hours in advance and 10 inches forecast is quite something.

The weather is moving up from Brittany now, trundles up the UK, out into the North Sea
over Lothian then just drives onto the coast and Grampians.

No doubt the hills do see big rainfall numbers at times, this wouldn't be unheard of in Cumbria or Snowdonia, but a lot of the forecast focus of the rain here is at landfall and the easternmost upslopes.

Could be a bad one.

Worth remembering that, following the summer floods of 2007, the Met Office and CEH run a joint flood forecasting centre, which brings together meteorologists and hydrologists. So if they are using a red warning for rain and subsequent flooding impacts that will be based on an understanding of the current hydrological situation in the area, and how it's likely to react to the forecast rainfall.

Not a warning to take lightly.

Particularly not if you live in Ballater, which seems to take the brunt of flooding on the River Dee.

If this looks anything like Storm Frank (2015) it will be bad. Upper Deeside was cut off and it took a long time to repair the washed out roads.

ttps://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/past-times/2774896/storm-frank-2015-floods/

If they dredged the rivers, it wouldn't happen nearly so often.

Slowing down the flow of water into rivers is the best way to prevent flooding. Along with not fecking up the climate, of course.

If the floor of the River rises consistently, it can hold less water. It's not rocket science.

No, its fluid dynamics which is considerably more complicated.

Except when you are dealing with the turbulent flow inside the rocket motor, of course.

Ah you see, fluid dynamics.

Modelling the boundries between turbulent and laminar flow in any system makes your head hurt. We have to do it for the drilling fluids in the well annulus or they won't carry the cuttings. Bloody horrible even when you have computers to help.

Alanbrooke said:

France looks like it is having a rougher time on Gaza than the UK. Target for lots of the arab world due to past colonial history and bubbling suburbs in the big cities.

Macron will no doubt stamp on all discontent.


https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/en-direct-guerre-israel-hamas-des-centaines-de-morts-dans-un-hopital-de-gaza-israel-et-palestiniens-se-rejettent-la-responsabilite-20231018

Burgessian said:

Alanbrooke said:

France looks like it is having a rougher time on Gaza than the UK. Target for lots of the arab world due to past colonial history and bubbling suburbs in the big cities.

Macron will no doubt stamp on all discontent.


https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/en-direct-guerre-israel-hamas-des-centaines-de-morts-dans-un-hopital-de-gaza-israel-et-palestiniens-se-rejettent-la-responsabilite-20231018

France has a much larger Muslim community than UK. 5.7m. Nearly 9% of the population. He'll have to tread carefully. (Total global Jewish population is just 16m. Which is why Jews feel so vulnerable. )

Leon said:

Sean_F said:

Leon said:

Here is - no joke - virtually the only photo of the Armenian genocide in action (there is no gore)

It shows Armenians being marched out of a town - into the deserts where they were killed in their thousands: starved, drowned, pushed over cliffs. Dozens of children were tied together and thrown in rivers

It was an unspeakable crime yet we have about four photos and this is one




So we forget. We don’t even learn in the first place

Sadly, people never cared very much about the Armenians. European governments cared far more about Greeks or Bulgarians being massacred by Turks (not so much about Turks being massacred by Greeks and Bulgarians), because they were classically educated. It wasn't about the lack of photography.

Again. I disagree

Imagine if we had thousands of photos of THIS:

"At least 150,000 Armenians passed through Erzindjan from June 1915, where a series of transit camps were set up to control the flow of victims to the killing site at the nearby Kemah gorge.[172] Thousands of Armenians were killed near Lake Hazar, pushed by paramilitaries off the cliffs.[168] More than 500,000 Armenians passed through the Firincilar plain south of Malatya, one of the deadliest areas during the genocide. Arriving convoys, having passed through the plain to approach the Kahta highlands, would have found gorges already filled with corpses from previous convoys"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenian_genocide

It would be seared in the collective consciousness. We do not have photos; it is not seared

And the lack of photos is no coincidence:

"The Ottoman Empire tried to prevent journalists and photographers from documenting the atrocities, threatening them with arrest"

Cookie said:

MaxPB said:

tlg86 said:

Starmer going on the hospital and repeating the claim that several hundred have died.

He needs to throw some red meat to the activists who are very, very unhappy with the pro-Israel stance. They want Labour to support Hamas. Hopefully these people all leave the Labour party but clearly Keith doesn't have the cojones to stare them down.

See lockdown. He has a history of not waiting for the evidence.

Burgessian said:

Leon said:

Sean_F said:

Leon said:

Here is - no joke - virtually the only photo of the Armenian genocide in action (there is no gore)

It shows Armenians being marched out of a town - into the deserts where they were killed in their thousands: starved, drowned, pushed over cliffs. Dozens of children were tied together and thrown in rivers

It was an unspeakable crime yet we have about four photos and this is one




So we forget. We don’t even learn in the first place

Sadly, people never cared very much about the Armenians. European governments cared far more about Greeks or Bulgarians being massacred by Turks (not so much about Turks being massacred by Greeks and Bulgarians), because they were classically educated. It wasn't about the lack of photography.

Again. I disagree

Imagine if we had thousands of photos of THIS:

"At least 150,000 Armenians passed through Erzindjan from June 1915, where a series of transit camps were set up to control the flow of victims to the killing site at the nearby Kemah gorge.[172] Thousands of Armenians were killed near Lake Hazar, pushed by paramilitaries off the cliffs.[168] More than 500,000 Armenians passed through the Firincilar plain south of Malatya, one of the deadliest areas during the genocide. Arriving convoys, having passed through the plain to approach the Kahta highlands, would have found gorges already filled with corpses from previous convoys"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenian_genocide

It would be seared in the collective consciousness. We do not have photos; it is not seared

And the lack of photos is no coincidence:

"The Ottoman Empire tried to prevent journalists and photographers from documenting the atrocities, threatening them with arrest"

Even now referring to the Armenian genocide can get you into trouble in Turkey. Orhan Pamuk, the Nobel-winning Turkish novelist, can vouch for that.

Taz said:

Alanbrooke said:

Leon said:

Alanbrooke said:

France looks like it is having a rougher time on Gaza than the UK. Target for lots of the arab world due to past colonial history and bubbling suburbs in the big cities.

Macron will no doubt stamp on all discontent.


https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/en-direct-guerre-israel-hamas-des-centaines-de-morts-dans-un-hopital-de-gaza-israel-et-palestiniens-se-rejettent-la-responsabilite-20231018

"Six airports in France evacuated"

https://x.com/FRANCE24/status/1714605036020318543?s=20


This would be a really easy way to cripple a tourist industry. Keep making vaguely credible bomb threats, set off the odd actual bomb to make it all believable. Could any airport ignore a threat? I doubt it. So they could be continuously closed, causing utter chaos

Yesterday it was Gare du Nord, Versailles and the Louvre. ( bomb threats )

Olympics should be a delight.

We've got the Rugby Semi-finals and final to negotiate first !!!!

FrancisUrquhart said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

tlg86 said:

Private Eye struggling with the 7 October attacks:

https://twitter.com/PrivateEyeNews/status/1714545102977421797

https://twitter.com/judecambridge/status/1714586246746390594

That's just pathetic.

If you look at the Daily Mail general coverage the defacto statement is Hamas a terrorist organisation, Hamas terrorists etc etc etc. They do from time to time mix it up with terms such as operatives, fighters etc, often within the same article. It called writing.

e.g. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12643229/Israel-blast-Gaza-hospital-Palestine-video-rocket-misfire.html

"Hamas operatives"..."Hamas terrorists"

So they have no issue with making a claim that Hamas are terrorists.

The BBC on the other hand have tried to claim we don't use the term terrorism / terrorist, we don't judge etc, but they have and they do about other terrorist incidents, just not when it comes to Hamas, they only quote others.

By every definition of the word, what Hamas did to Israel was terrorism.

Sean_F said:

Leon said:

Sean_F said:

Leon said:

Here is - no joke - virtually the only photo of the Armenian genocide in action (there is no gore)

It shows Armenians being marched out of a town - into the deserts where they were killed in their thousands: starved, drowned, pushed over cliffs. Dozens of children were tied together and thrown in rivers

It was an unspeakable crime yet we have about four photos and this is one




So we forget. We don’t even learn in the first place

Sadly, people never cared very much about the Armenians. European governments cared far more about Greeks or Bulgarians being massacred by Turks (not so much about Turks being massacred by Greeks and Bulgarians), because they were classically educated. It wasn't about the lack of photography.

Again. I disagree

Imagine if we had thousands of photos of THIS:

"At least 150,000 Armenians passed through Erzindjan from June 1915, where a series of transit camps were set up to control the flow of victims to the killing site at the nearby Kemah gorge.[172] Thousands of Armenians were killed near Lake Hazar, pushed by paramilitaries off the cliffs.[168] More than 500,000 Armenians passed through the Firincilar plain south of Malatya, one of the deadliest areas during the genocide. Arriving convoys, having passed through the plain to approach the Kahta highlands, would have found gorges already filled with corpses from previous convoys"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenian_genocide

It would be seared in the collective consciousness. We do not have photos; it is not seared

And the lack of photos is no coincidence:

"The Ottoman Empire tried to prevent journalists and photographers from documenting the atrocities, threatening them with arrest"

How many people really cared about the Rwandan genocide, or ongoing massacres in Central Africa, despite the photographic evidence?

I can remember Richard Littlejohn at the time, writing an article along the lines of "If the MBongo tribe and the Mbango tribes want to wipe each other out, why should that bother me?"

stodge said:

Ghedebrav said:

On topic-ish.

It *is* possible I guess that the brass in Labour and LDs are playing 4D chess and creating an argument for electoral pact come the GE. Emboldening Sunak isn’t a bad idea either, as the more he says, the less popular he becomes.

But Occam’s Razor. They probably just both thought they can win and will lose as a result.

In truth, Mid Bedfordshire isn't unlike Shropshire North and Tiverton & Honiton. In all three seats, the LDs were third in 2019 - in Shropshire North, they were 52% behind the Conservatives, in T&H they were 45% behind the Conservatives, in Mid Bedfordshire they start 47% behind the Conservatives.

Labour were further ahead of the LDs in Shropshire North but nobody said the LDs should "let" Labour have the seat. The LDs started five points behind Labour in T&H but nobody said they should give up and let Labour have the seat. Why do we hear this now in Mid Bedfordshire?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Channel-hopped back onto Al Jaz after watching PMQs - they are STILL going on about "Israel kill hundreds in air strike"

Ghedebrav said:

Sean_F said:

Leon said:

Sean_F said:

Leon said:

Here is - no joke - virtually the only photo of the Armenian genocide in action (there is no gore)

It shows Armenians being marched out of a town - into the deserts where they were killed in their thousands: starved, drowned, pushed over cliffs. Dozens of children were tied together and thrown in rivers

It was an unspeakable crime yet we have about four photos and this is one




So we forget. We don’t even learn in the first place

Sadly, people never cared very much about the Armenians. European governments cared far more about Greeks or Bulgarians being massacred by Turks (not so much about Turks being massacred by Greeks and Bulgarians), because they were classically educated. It wasn't about the lack of photography.

Again. I disagree

Imagine if we had thousands of photos of THIS:

"At least 150,000 Armenians passed through Erzindjan from June 1915, where a series of transit camps were set up to control the flow of victims to the killing site at the nearby Kemah gorge.[172] Thousands of Armenians were killed near Lake Hazar, pushed by paramilitaries off the cliffs.[168] More than 500,000 Armenians passed through the Firincilar plain south of Malatya, one of the deadliest areas during the genocide. Arriving convoys, having passed through the plain to approach the Kahta highlands, would have found gorges already filled with corpses from previous convoys"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenian_genocide

It would be seared in the collective consciousness. We do not have photos; it is not seared

And the lack of photos is no coincidence:

"The Ottoman Empire tried to prevent journalists and photographers from documenting the atrocities, threatening them with arrest"

How many people really cared about the Rwandan genocide, or ongoing massacres in Central Africa, despite the photographic evidence?

I can remember Richard Littlejohn at the time, writing an article along the lines of "If the MBongo tribe and the Mbango tribes want to wipe each other out, why should that bother me?"

A sentiment shared by Corbynistas (cf Myanmar, Yemen, Xinjiang, Ukraine et al). There are no Jews to blame, y’see.

Leon said:

Sean_F said:

Leon said:

Sean_F said:

Leon said:

Here is - no joke - virtually the only photo of the Armenian genocide in action (there is no gore)

It shows Armenians being marched out of a town - into the deserts where they were killed in their thousands: starved, drowned, pushed over cliffs. Dozens of children were tied together and thrown in rivers

It was an unspeakable crime yet we have about four photos and this is one




So we forget. We don’t even learn in the first place

Sadly, people never cared very much about the Armenians. European governments cared far more about Greeks or Bulgarians being massacred by Turks (not so much about Turks being massacred by Greeks and Bulgarians), because they were classically educated. It wasn't about the lack of photography.

Again. I disagree

Imagine if we had thousands of photos of THIS:

"At least 150,000 Armenians passed through Erzindjan from June 1915, where a series of transit camps were set up to control the flow of victims to the killing site at the nearby Kemah gorge.[172] Thousands of Armenians were killed near Lake Hazar, pushed by paramilitaries off the cliffs.[168] More than 500,000 Armenians passed through the Firincilar plain south of Malatya, one of the deadliest areas during the genocide. Arriving convoys, having passed through the plain to approach the Kahta highlands, would have found gorges already filled with corpses from previous convoys"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenian_genocide

It would be seared in the collective consciousness. We do not have photos; it is not seared

And the lack of photos is no coincidence:

"The Ottoman Empire tried to prevent journalists and photographers from documenting the atrocities, threatening them with arrest"

How many people really cared about the Rwandan genocide, or ongoing massacres in Central Africa, despite the photographic evidence?

I can remember Richard Littlejohn at the time, writing an article along the lines of "If the MBongo tribe and the Mbango tribes want to wipe each other out, why should that bother me?"

True, but that's more an artifice of racial and cultural distance

The Armenians look, sound and come across as southern Europeans, and Europeans with a grand, ancient, Christian civilisation at that. If we had images of the genocide we would care about it more, I am sure of it

I've been to the Genocide museum in Yerevan. Even they don't have images, there are none. You encounter a lot of documents, eye witness accounts, reportage, but you have to work at the task, to get the sense of scale and horror. You have to read, basically

A picture tells a thousand words...

On my way out I went to the eternal flame of the Armenian people: a striking large shrine on a mountaintop, which cradles a fire which burns perpetually in the memory of the Armenian dead. I saw a young pretty Armenian mother with two small boys tentatively approach the flame and then lay two little bouquets of flowers. Then they just stood there. Them and me, and the flame, and the ancient, haunting Armenian church music which echoes around the shrine, 24/7

Unbearably moving; I had tears in my eyes

Burgessian said:

OT. If LibDems cost Labour the seat could have pretty negative consequences for Davey. A significant number of anti-Tory voters likely to reflexively vote Labour at the GE and not "risk" a LibDem vote even in seats where the LibDems are challengers. Not everyone is clued in sufficiently to realise where the value lies.

Sean_F said:

Leon said:

Sean_F said:

Leon said:

Sean_F said:

Leon said:

Here is - no joke - virtually the only photo of the Armenian genocide in action (there is no gore)

It shows Armenians being marched out of a town - into the deserts where they were killed in their thousands: starved, drowned, pushed over cliffs. Dozens of children were tied together and thrown in rivers

It was an unspeakable crime yet we have about four photos and this is one




So we forget. We don’t even learn in the first place

Sadly, people never cared very much about the Armenians. European governments cared far more about Greeks or Bulgarians being massacred by Turks (not so much about Turks being massacred by Greeks and Bulgarians), because they were classically educated. It wasn't about the lack of photography.

Again. I disagree

Imagine if we had thousands of photos of THIS:

"At least 150,000 Armenians passed through Erzindjan from June 1915, where a series of transit camps were set up to control the flow of victims to the killing site at the nearby Kemah gorge.[172] Thousands of Armenians were killed near Lake Hazar, pushed by paramilitaries off the cliffs.[168] More than 500,000 Armenians passed through the Firincilar plain south of Malatya, one of the deadliest areas during the genocide. Arriving convoys, having passed through the plain to approach the Kahta highlands, would have found gorges already filled with corpses from previous convoys"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenian_genocide

It would be seared in the collective consciousness. We do not have photos; it is not seared

And the lack of photos is no coincidence:

"The Ottoman Empire tried to prevent journalists and photographers from documenting the atrocities, threatening them with arrest"

How many people really cared about the Rwandan genocide, or ongoing massacres in Central Africa, despite the photographic evidence?

I can remember Richard Littlejohn at the time, writing an article along the lines of "If the MBongo tribe and the Mbango tribes want to wipe each other out, why should that bother me?"

True, but that's more an artifice of racial and cultural distance

The Armenians look, sound and come across as southern Europeans, and Europeans with a grand, ancient, Christian civilisation at that. If we had images of the genocide we would care about it more, I am sure of it

I've been to the Genocide museum in Yerevan. Even they don't have images, there are none. You encounter a lot of documents, eye witness accounts, reportage, but you have to work at the task, to get the sense of scale and horror. You have to read, basically

A picture tells a thousand words...

On my way out I went to the eternal flame of the Armenian people: a striking large shrine on a mountaintop, which cradles a fire which burns perpetually in the memory of the Armenian dead. I saw a young pretty Armenian mother with two small boys tentatively approach the flame and then lay two little bouquets of flowers. Then they just stood there. Them and me, and the flame, and the ancient, haunting Armenian church music which echoes around the shrine, 24/7

Unbearably moving; I had tears in my eyes

It is hugely sad, and I don't really know why some peoples' sufferings elicit widespread sympathy and other peoples' sufferings don't.

I have a sense that without the Holocaust, Jewish suffering (in pogroms, riots, expulsions etc.) would have been met with a shrug. Reading Savage Continent, by Keith Lowe, it's not even the case that the Holocaust was seen as such a big deal, in the immediate aftermath of WWII. The attitude of the Communists in the East, and Western allies in Germany was very much along the lines of "Yes, Jews suffered horribly at Nazi hands, but so did lots of people."

No_Offence_Alan said:

Sean_F said:

Following on from my last post, this is, in a sense, the same conflict playing out. The decline of the Ottoman Empire, and the various nationalities all fighting for power, and getting rid of the rival minority groups in their midst.

It was really quite telling that my guide book, on my recent holiday in Greek, went into a long rant about Turkish atrocities on the island (real enough) before remarking that the Turkish (actually, Cretan Muslim) population "left" the island between 1897 and 1923.

If anyone says that the Falklands "belong" to Argentina because it is obvious from a map, show them a map of the Aegean and ask which islands are "obviously" Greek?