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Mid Beds betting – CON and LD up while LAB down – politicalbetting.com

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  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    An example. Tony Blair's government vowed to open the borders and encourage mass immigration so as to "rub the noses of the Right in diversity"

    Well, who is having their "noses rubbed in diversity", right now? Who is truly suffering? I wonder if the Jewish members of that New Labour cabinet - like Margaret Hodge - occasionally think, "oops"

    I really think you need to let this one go. Genuinely. Go to bed.
    I am stone cold sober and also absolutely correct, you just don't like hearing it

    I am also only repeating, in a different way, what that great Jew Henry Kissinger said the other day. Turns out postwar migration patterns into Europe have been bad for Jews
    Whether they have or haven't you have just thrilled our Hamas sympathisers on here by telling us that actually it's the Jews' own fault.
    No I didn't. Go back and read

    I said leftwing Jewish intellectuals who favoured mass immigration and multikulti - and they are not hard to find, are they? - are partly responsible for this present unpleasant pickle, along with all the other idiot Gentile lefties who thought it would all go fantastically well, look at Sweden it's great etc etc etc

    That's a subset, and the culpability is highly partial. Much greater blame attaches to others
    You are just restating the point that it's the fault, amongst others, of the Jews. You liderally just said it.

    You are singling out the Jews for blame in the same sentence that you celebrate the end of post-war European anti-Semitism.

    I don't think you have an anti-semitic bone in your body and I say this just to show how easy it is for the narrative to head that way. Imagine how such a narrative could be employed by someone less anti-anti-semitic.
    Well at least we can all agree that multiculturalism has been a disaster for Jews. amiright?
    I'm not really in a position to say. But I did note plenty of white folks on the march over the weekend why our very own @148grss went and spent the day making daisy chains and singing the Palestinian equivalent of Kumbayah.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,296
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    TimS said:

    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    "The Israeli War Cabinet reportedly told U.S. President Biden today during a Meeting that they have now completed their preparations for an Invasion of the Gaza Strip and that a Ground Operation is now “Imminent.”"

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1714713872920104964?s=20

    I think this calls for a.....

    BRACE

    They will regret it.

    Bogged down in months of house to house slaughter.

    Having ground out a "win" they get to rule Northern Gaza.

    And then what?

    It is a trap.

    Meanwhile, a new generation of radicalised young people is created, the next generation of prospective martyrs and the cycle of violence begins anew.

    I'm sure Israel is well aware of this - how could it not be? Yet the atrocity is so heinous some form of punishment or response has to be meted out otherwise it shows weakness and would invite an internal upheaval leading to an even harsher response.
    This is Jewish history. Century after century.
    It’s always the fault of the Jews, when bad things happen to them.
    Every Jewish intellectual in the west who has loudly espoused mass immigration or multiculturalism is, yes, somewhat responsible for the place they now find themselves

    Jews for Multiculturalism makes as much sense as Queers for Palestine
    This is the worst take of all the utterly shit takes you’ve put forward on here over the years. And that’s saying something.

    Jewish culture is distinct and they have struggled to preserve it against state attempts attempts to enforce uniformity over two millennia. The Jews were the original victims of European monoculturalism and intolerance. When England and Spain expelled them it was not because they were confirming too much to the mainstream. The Spanish Inquisition was not part of the Woke Blob.

    This is such a glaringly obvious point I’m stunned I have to explain it to you.
    But of course. It made sense for Jewish people to seek and encourage multicultural societies, over history, as they have tended to be more tolerant of minorities - and, as you say, monocultures are not going to be like this

    But the history of postwar Europe has showed that this is no longer true, and hasn't been true for a long time. And people have been warning about this for decades. We have imported new forms of anti-Semitism utterly inimical to Jews

    Look at that scary march for Palestine in Whitehall, see who was on that march. It wasn't gammon-faced colonels from Tunbridge Wells with an old streak of Arabianism. It wasn't white skinheads from Deptford. These people don't exist any more. The new anti-Semites are new and largely imported
    Anti-Semitism re-emerges and can do so quite suddenly. Until 1932 if you were going to peg the most antisemitic country in Europe your money would probably be on Post-Dreyfus Affair France - Berlin opened a Jewish cultural museum the week Hitler was appointed chancellor. England has had waves of anti-semitism. History has shown the Jews that no country, especially no European country, has a monopoly on it - hence Israel.
    But by the 1980s, at the latest, it was pretty clear that mass migration from Muslim societies would - in the long run - be really bad for Jews living happily and safely in western European countries, once the virus of native European anti-Semitism had been extinguished after the Holocaust

    People said as much, quite clearly
    This isn’t an argument against multiculturalism, from which the Jewish culture benefits, it’s an argument, specifically, against Muslim immigration. Unless you are saying that Jewish culture has assimilated and no longer needs multiculturalism? Quite a claim.

    And don’t get me started on the equally contemptible and complacent bullshit of “the virus of native (sic) European anti-Semitism” being “extinguished”.
    If multiculturalism and mass immigration increases the threat from the far right, isn’t that a good reason to oppose it on pragmatic grounds?
    So, it’s multiculturalism AND mass immigration now? Pretty sure Leon only picked one of the two
    You tried to narrow it down to Muslim immigration. I’m pointing out that if, as you claim, the threat is multidirectional then you also need to consider the effects of non-Muslim immigration.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    An example. Tony Blair's government vowed to open the borders and encourage mass immigration so as to "rub the noses of the Right in diversity"

    Well, who is having their "noses rubbed in diversity", right now? Who is truly suffering? I wonder if the Jewish members of that New Labour cabinet - like Margaret Hodge - occasionally think, "oops"

    I really think you need to let this one go. Genuinely. Go to bed.
    I am stone cold sober and also absolutely correct, you just don't like hearing it

    I am also only repeating, in a different way, what that great Jew Henry Kissinger said the other day. Turns out postwar migration patterns into Europe have been bad for Jews
    Whether they have or haven't you have just thrilled our Hamas sympathisers on here by telling us that actually it's the Jews' own fault.
    No I didn't. Go back and read

    I said leftwing Jewish intellectuals who favoured mass immigration and multikulti - and they are not hard to find, are they? - are partly responsible for this present unpleasant pickle, along with all the other idiot Gentile lefties who thought it would all go fantastically well, look at Sweden it's great etc etc etc

    That's a subset, and the culpability is highly partial. Much greater blame attaches to others
    You are just restating the point that it's the fault, amongst others, of the Jews. You liderally just said it.

    You are singling out the Jews for blame in the same sentence that you celebrate the end of post-war European anti-Semitism.

    I don't think you have an anti-semitic bone in your body and I say this just to show how easy it is for the narrative to head that way. Imagine how such a narrative could be employed by someone less anti-anti-semitic.
    Well at least we can all agree that multiculturalism has been a disaster for Jews. amiright?
    I'm not really in a position to say. But I did note plenty of white folks on the march over the weekend why our very own @148grss went and spent the day making daisy chains and singing the Palestinian equivalent of Kumbayah.
    lol
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    TimS said:

    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    "The Israeli War Cabinet reportedly told U.S. President Biden today during a Meeting that they have now completed their preparations for an Invasion of the Gaza Strip and that a Ground Operation is now “Imminent.”"

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1714713872920104964?s=20

    I think this calls for a.....

    BRACE

    They will regret it.

    Bogged down in months of house to house slaughter.

    Having ground out a "win" they get to rule Northern Gaza.

    And then what?

    It is a trap.

    Meanwhile, a new generation of radicalised young people is created, the next generation of prospective martyrs and the cycle of violence begins anew.

    I'm sure Israel is well aware of this - how could it not be? Yet the atrocity is so heinous some form of punishment or response has to be meted out otherwise it shows weakness and would invite an internal upheaval leading to an even harsher response.
    This is Jewish history. Century after century.
    It’s always the fault of the Jews, when bad things happen to them.
    Every Jewish intellectual in the west who has loudly espoused mass immigration or multiculturalism is, yes, somewhat responsible for the place they now find themselves

    Jews for Multiculturalism makes as much sense as Queers for Palestine
    This is the worst take of all the utterly shit takes you’ve put forward on here over the years. And that’s saying something.

    Jewish culture is distinct and they have struggled to preserve it against state attempts attempts to enforce uniformity over two millennia. The Jews were the original victims of European monoculturalism and intolerance. When England and Spain expelled them it was not because they were confirming too much to the mainstream. The Spanish Inquisition was not part of the Woke Blob.

    This is such a glaringly obvious point I’m stunned I have to explain it to you.
    But of course. It made sense for Jewish people to seek and encourage multicultural societies, over history, as they have tended to be more tolerant of minorities - and, as you say, monocultures are not going to be like this

    But the history of postwar Europe has showed that this is no longer true, and hasn't been true for a long time. And people have been warning about this for decades. We have imported new forms of anti-Semitism utterly inimical to Jews

    Look at that scary march for Palestine in Whitehall, see who was on that march. It wasn't gammon-faced colonels from Tunbridge Wells with an old streak of Arabianism. It wasn't white skinheads from Deptford. These people don't exist any more. The new anti-Semites are new and largely imported
    Anti-Semitism re-emerges and can do so quite suddenly. Until 1932 if you were going to peg the most antisemitic country in Europe your money would probably be on Post-Dreyfus Affair France - Berlin opened a Jewish cultural museum the week Hitler was appointed chancellor. England has had waves of anti-semitism. History has shown the Jews that no country, especially no European country, has a monopoly on it - hence Israel.
    But by the 1980s, at the latest, it was pretty clear that mass migration from Muslim societies would - in the long run - be really bad for Jews living happily and safely in western European countries, once the virus of native European anti-Semitism had been extinguished after the Holocaust

    People said as much, quite clearly
    OTOH, I don't think that Hindu, Sikh, African Christian, or Indian Muslim immigration poses any sort of danger to Jews.

    Unfortunately, a lot of Middle Eastern Muslims are taught from childhood that everything that is wrong with their societies is the fault of Jews and the West (who are either the sponsors of Zionist colonialism, or else puppets on the Jewish string). And, those beliefs are widely shared by a significant proportion (certainly not all) of European Muslims.

    I don't however think that is necessarily the worst problem. What seems clear to me is that the radical Palestinian cause attracts the backing of those Western people who are fundamentally disaffected from Western society, the sorts of people who would have supported Communism in the Twenties and Thirties. They adhere to the narrative that the West is fundamentally evil. Western sympathy for Jihadism is a sign of rebellion against Western societies. That's what unites Sinn Fein, Maggie Chapman, George Galloway, Owen Jones, Chris Williamson, Jeremy Corbyn etc. It's a minority, but a big one, in most of Europe. That's how you end up with Queers for Palestine.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538

    Jews for Multiculturalism makes as much sense as Queers for Palestine

    Is Roger right that Channel 4 claim the rocket almost certainly came from Israel? That's going against pretty much everything I've seen people saying online. What's the evidence?

    The evidence is well-summarised on BBC Verify. I'd advise anyone to look at it before pronouncing.

    IMHO, it points to the missile not being Israeli, but it is very far from conclusive.
  • The Senate Intelligence Committee reviewed intelligence related to the attack on al-Ahli hospital in Gaza. Based on this information, we feel confident that the explosion was the result of a failed rocket launch by militant terrorists and not the result of an Israeli airstrike.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,363
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-12645435/Belle-banquet-Queen-Camilla-dazzles-Bruce-Oldfield-gown-King-Charles-ceremony-dating-17th-century-City-London.html

    King Charles urges people to rise above 'rancour and acrimony' of social media which stifles 'civilised debate' as he addresses business leaders in the City of London.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 22,375
    edited October 2023
    Sean_F said:

    The evidence is well-summarised on BBC Verify. I'd advise anyone to look at it before pronouncing.

    IMHO, it points to the missile not being Israeli, but it is very far from conclusive.

    Its not conclusive in the same way as the BBC won't conclusively recognise Hamas as terrorists.

    The evidence is clear. Only batshit loons say otherwise now. Oh, hi there Roger!
  • King John, a hunted, impoverished, defeated invalid died in this castle at Newark on Trent today in 1216. It was the best move of his career.

    Because 🥁

    His dysentery saved his dynasty.


    https://twitter.com/thehistoryguy/status/1714742398884995382
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    Sean_F said:



    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    TimS said:

    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    "The Israeli War Cabinet reportedly told U.S. President Biden today during a Meeting that they have now completed their preparations for an Invasion of the Gaza Strip and that a Ground Operation is now “Imminent.”"

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1714713872920104964?s=20

    I think this calls for a.....

    BRACE

    They will regret it.

    Bogged down in months of house to house slaughter.

    Having ground out a "win" they get to rule Northern Gaza.

    And then what?

    It is a trap.

    Meanwhile, a new generation of radicalised young people is created, the next generation of prospective martyrs and the cycle of violence begins anew.

    I'm sure Israel is well aware of this - how could it not be? Yet the atrocity is so heinous some form of punishment or response has to be meted out otherwise it shows weakness and would invite an internal upheaval leading to an even harsher response.
    This is Jewish history. Century after century.
    It’s always the fault of the Jews, when bad things happen to them.
    Every Jewish intellectual in the west who has loudly espoused mass immigration or multiculturalism is, yes, somewhat responsible for the place they now find themselves

    Jews for Multiculturalism makes as much sense as Queers for Palestine
    This is the worst take of all the utterly shit takes you’ve put forward on here over the years. And that’s saying something.

    Jewish culture is distinct and they have struggled to preserve it against state attempts attempts to enforce uniformity over two millennia. The Jews were the original victims of European monoculturalism and intolerance. When England and Spain expelled them it was not because they were confirming too much to the mainstream. The Spanish Inquisition was not part of the Woke Blob.

    This is such a glaringly obvious point I’m stunned I have to explain it to you.
    But of course. It made sense for Jewish people to seek and encourage multicultural societies, over history, as they have tended to be more tolerant of minorities - and, as you say, monocultures are not going to be like this

    But the history of postwar Europe has showed that this is no longer true, and hasn't been true for a long time. And people have been warning about this for decades. We have imported new forms of anti-Semitism utterly inimical to Jews

    Look at that scary march for Palestine in Whitehall, see who was on that march. It wasn't gammon-faced colonels from Tunbridge Wells with an old streak of Arabianism. It wasn't white skinheads from Deptford. These people don't exist any more. The new anti-Semites are new and largely imported
    Anti-Semitism re-emerges and can do so quite suddenly. Until 1932 if you were going to peg the most antisemitic country in Europe your money would probably be on Post-Dreyfus Affair France - Berlin opened a Jewish cultural museum the week Hitler was appointed chancellor. England has had waves of anti-semitism. History has shown the Jews that no country, especially no European country, has a monopoly on it - hence Israel.
    But by the 1980s, at the latest, it was pretty clear that mass migration from Muslim societies would - in the long run - be really bad for Jews living happily and safely in western European countries, once the virus of native European anti-Semitism had been extinguished after the Holocaust

    People said as much, quite clearly
    OTOH, I don't think that Hindu, Sikh, African Christian, or Indian Muslim immigration poses any sort of danger to Jews.

    Unfortunately, a lot of Middle Eastern Muslims are taught from childhood that everything that is wrong with their societies is the fault of Jews and the West (who are either the sponsors of Zionist colonialism, or else puppets on the Jewish string). And, those beliefs are widely shared by a significant proportion (certainly not all) of European Muslims.

    I don't however think that is necessarily the worst problem. What seems clear to me is that the radical Palestinian cause attracts the backing of those Western people who are fundamentally disaffected from Western society, the sorts of people who would have supported Communism in the Twenties and Thirties. They adhere to the narrative that the West is fundamentally evil. Western sympathy for Jihadism is a sign of rebellion against Western societies. That's what unites Sinn Fein, Maggie Chapman, George Galloway, Owen Jones, Chris Williamson, Jeremy Corbyn etc. It's a minority, but a big one, in most of Europe. That's how you end up with Queers for Palestine.
    That's mostly true (tho I am not at all sure that Indian Muslims are miraculously devoid of anti-Semitism)

    However there are complicating issues. Anti-Semitism really is like a virus, and it has spread from Palestinian/Muslim communites into other minorities and minority causes. eg Black Lives Matter is tainted with it, Because hating Jews is easily mainstreamed into the wider decolonialist narrative, as Jews act like brutal imperialists over Palestine (and they often do, let's be fair)

    And God help us it can be found in the Scottish Greens. A horrible case. Like a face fungus

    Fuck knows how we deal with this. It is bad


  • Carnyx said:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-12645435/Belle-banquet-Queen-Camilla-dazzles-Bruce-Oldfield-gown-King-Charles-ceremony-dating-17th-century-City-London.html

    King Charles urges people to rise above 'rancour and acrimony' of social media which stifles 'civilised debate' as he addresses business leaders in the City of London.

    Just cos his sausage digits aren't much good for promulgating rancour and hate on a smartphone.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538

    King John, a hunted, impoverished, defeated invalid died in this castle at Newark on Trent today in 1216. It was the best move of his career.

    Because 🥁

    His dysentery saved his dynasty.


    https://twitter.com/thehistoryguy/status/1714742398884995382

    One of the few people to be both a vile man and a disastrous king. Had he lived, the House of Capet would have carried out a reverse takeover of England, in addition to the Plantagenet lands in France.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:



    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    TimS said:

    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    "The Israeli War Cabinet reportedly told U.S. President Biden today during a Meeting that they have now completed their preparations for an Invasion of the Gaza Strip and that a Ground Operation is now “Imminent.”"

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1714713872920104964?s=20

    I think this calls for a.....

    BRACE

    They will regret it.

    Bogged down in months of house to house slaughter.

    Having ground out a "win" they get to rule Northern Gaza.

    And then what?

    It is a trap.

    Meanwhile, a new generation of radicalised young people is created, the next generation of prospective martyrs and the cycle of violence begins anew.

    I'm sure Israel is well aware of this - how could it not be? Yet the atrocity is so heinous some form of punishment or response has to be meted out otherwise it shows weakness and would invite an internal upheaval leading to an even harsher response.
    This is Jewish history. Century after century.
    It’s always the fault of the Jews, when bad things happen to them.
    Every Jewish intellectual in the west who has loudly espoused mass immigration or multiculturalism is, yes, somewhat responsible for the place they now find themselves

    Jews for Multiculturalism makes as much sense as Queers for Palestine
    This is the worst take of all the utterly shit takes you’ve put forward on here over the years. And that’s saying something.

    Jewish culture is distinct and they have struggled to preserve it against state attempts attempts to enforce uniformity over two millennia. The Jews were the original victims of European monoculturalism and intolerance. When England and Spain expelled them it was not because they were confirming too much to the mainstream. The Spanish Inquisition was not part of the Woke Blob.

    This is such a glaringly obvious point I’m stunned I have to explain it to you.
    But of course. It made sense for Jewish people to seek and encourage multicultural societies, over history, as they have tended to be more tolerant of minorities - and, as you say, monocultures are not going to be like this

    But the history of postwar Europe has showed that this is no longer true, and hasn't been true for a long time. And people have been warning about this for decades. We have imported new forms of anti-Semitism utterly inimical to Jews

    Look at that scary march for Palestine in Whitehall, see who was on that march. It wasn't gammon-faced colonels from Tunbridge Wells with an old streak of Arabianism. It wasn't white skinheads from Deptford. These people don't exist any more. The new anti-Semites are new and largely imported
    Anti-Semitism re-emerges and can do so quite suddenly. Until 1932 if you were going to peg the most antisemitic country in Europe your money would probably be on Post-Dreyfus Affair France - Berlin opened a Jewish cultural museum the week Hitler was appointed chancellor. England has had waves of anti-semitism. History has shown the Jews that no country, especially no European country, has a monopoly on it - hence Israel.
    But by the 1980s, at the latest, it was pretty clear that mass migration from Muslim societies would - in the long run - be really bad for Jews living happily and safely in western European countries, once the virus of native European anti-Semitism had been extinguished after the Holocaust

    People said as much, quite clearly
    OTOH, I don't think that Hindu, Sikh, African Christian, or Indian Muslim immigration poses any sort of danger to Jews.

    Unfortunately, a lot of Middle Eastern Muslims are taught from childhood that everything that is wrong with their societies is the fault of Jews and the West (who are either the sponsors of Zionist colonialism, or else puppets on the Jewish string). And, those beliefs are widely shared by a significant proportion (certainly not all) of European Muslims.

    I don't however think that is necessarily the worst problem. What seems clear to me is that the radical Palestinian cause attracts the backing of those Western people who are fundamentally disaffected from Western society, the sorts of people who would have supported Communism in the Twenties and Thirties. They adhere to the narrative that the West is fundamentally evil. Western sympathy for Jihadism is a sign of rebellion against Western societies. That's what unites Sinn Fein, Maggie Chapman, George Galloway, Owen Jones, Chris Williamson, Jeremy Corbyn etc. It's a minority, but a big one, in most of Europe. That's how you end up with Queers for Palestine.
    That's mostly true (tho I am not at all sure that Indian Muslims are miraculously devoid of anti-Semitism)

    However there are complicating issues. Anti-Semitism really is like a virus, and it has spread from Palestinian/Muslim communites into other minorities and minority causes. eg Black Lives Matter is tainted with it, Because hating Jews is easily mainstreamed into the wider decolonialist narrative, as Jews act like brutal imperialists over Palestine (and they often do, let's be fair)

    And God help us it can be found in the Scottish Greens. A horrible case. Like a face fungus

    Fuck knows how we deal with this. It is bad


    It's certainly no coincidence that academic hatred of Israel (and let's be frank, hatred of Jews) will always be found in Post-Colonial Studies Departments.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Leon said:

    Is Roger right that Channel 4 claim the rocket almost certainly came from Israel? That's going against pretty much everything I've seen people saying online. What's the evidence?

    There is now some conflicting evidence. It's a mess
    https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1714648344365302017

    According to Nathan Ruser some known spreader of disinformation claimed to show the rocket/bomb came from Israel with a video he posted online and got some attention to. I hope to god that isn't what Channel 4 are basing their assertions on. Mr Ruser takes the claims apart in the above thread. Hard to follow but he seems to know his stuff!
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,812

    Sean_F said:

    The evidence is well-summarised on BBC Verify. I'd advise anyone to look at it before pronouncing.

    IMHO, it points to the missile not being Israeli, but it is very far from conclusive.

    Its not conclusive in the same way as the BBC won't conclusively recognise Hamas as terrorists.

    The evidence is clear. Only batshit loons say otherwise now. Oh, hi there Roger!
    An analysis published in The Guardian (a paper not reflexively pro Israeli) using open source info indicates very strongly that the hospital was hit by a rocket fired from Gaza.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,133
    edited October 2023

    Leon said:

    Is Roger right that Channel 4 claim the rocket almost certainly came from Israel? That's going against pretty much everything I've seen people saying online. What's the evidence?

    There is now some conflicting evidence. It's a mess
    https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1714648344365302017

    According to Nathan Ruser some known spreader of disinformation claimed to show the rocket/bomb came from Israel with a video he posted online and got some attention to. I hope to god that isn't what Channel 4 are basing their assertions on. Mr Ruser takes the claims apart in the above thread. Hard to follow but he seems to know his stuff!
    Hananya Naftali?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,128
    edited October 2023
    The most interesting point was that most of the damage was from burning liquid fuels from the missile.

    Israel, like the US, doesn't use liquid fuelled ballistic missiles.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928

    Leon said:

    Is Roger right that Channel 4 claim the rocket almost certainly came from Israel? That's going against pretty much everything I've seen people saying online. What's the evidence?

    There is now some conflicting evidence. It's a mess
    https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1714648344365302017

    According to Nathan Ruser some known spreader of disinformation claimed to show the rocket/bomb came from Israel with a video he posted online and got some attention to. I hope to god that isn't what Channel 4 are basing their assertions on. Mr Ruser takes the claims apart in the above thread. Hard to follow but he seems to know his stuff!
    Hananya Naftali?
    AyazK/AyazK100 is the tweeter. previously claimed that the murders in Bucha were done by Ukrainian forces.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928

    Is Roger right that Channel 4 claim the rocket almost certainly came from Israel? That's going against pretty much everything I've seen people saying online. What's the evidence?

    The evidence is well-summarised on BBC Verify. I'd advise anyone to look at it before pronouncing.

    IMHO, it points to the missile not being Israeli, but it is very far from conclusive.
    The most interesting point was that most of the damage was from burning liquid fuels from the missile.

    Israel, like the US, doesn't use liquid fuelled ballistic missiles.

    And what about the number of victims? Is an Islamic jihad rocket likely to kill 500 people????
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606

    Leon said:

    Is Roger right that Channel 4 claim the rocket almost certainly came from Israel? That's going against pretty much everything I've seen people saying online. What's the evidence?

    There is now some conflicting evidence. It's a mess
    https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1714648344365302017

    According to Nathan Ruser some known spreader of disinformation claimed to show the rocket/bomb came from Israel with a video he posted online and got some attention to. I hope to god that isn't what Channel 4 are basing their assertions on. Mr Ruser takes the claims apart in the above thread. Hard to follow but he seems to know his stuff!
    In the end, does it even matter?

    Either side could have done this, both sides are hurling munitions at each other on a large scale, 24/7

    I am willing to believe the Israelis are much more careful in their targeting, nonetheless Israel is dropping bombs and missiles on one of the most crowded places in the world, and they have already killed 2-3000 Gazans, and will surely kill many more. A bomb or a missile that went astray is not an outlandish claim

    Whoever is responsible, Hamas did a good job of turning it into a PR coup, and Israel will just have to accept that - because it comes with the territory if you are the bigger power bombing a smaller entity. You will be the bad guy

    Much larger events will sweep this away, very soon
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,316
    edited October 2023

    Roger said:

    Channel 4 are really giving the Israeli Ambassador a hard time. They don't accept the premise that a statement is more reliable because it's from the Israelis than the Palestinians. Israel has a history of lying which they have helpfully show. She is poor though not as bad as Mark Regev. My sense is that the PR is running out of Israels control

    Leaving this hospital incident aside, the mutterings I've heard locally over the last couple of days suggest public sympathy is moving away from Israel to the ordinary Palestinian victims (not Hamas!). People were rightly horrified and outraged by Hamas's murderous assault including women and babies, but days of seeing homes reduced to rubble and reports of siege conditions has changed that. Whether it matters to Israel in the short term, or to Netanyahu at all, is in doubt.
    FWIW, where I have got to. I'm not sure about any of this and would de delighted if it was challenged as I remain open-minded:
    - Taken in isolation, the Hamas attack was horrific and Israel has the legal and moral right to respond. It is very hard for that response to not affect innocent civilians in Gaza. But there is no moral equivalence here.
    - But it doesn't really work to see this latest attack in isolation. I can understand and sympathise with an utter despair on the part of Palestinians that, whatever actions their government has taken over the past 75 years or so, the big picture is only ever one of encroachment onto their territory, whether through war or illegal settlement. This doesn't justify Hamas' actions in any way, but I can see how, as frail humans, many might have got to the point where they are prepared to support extreme responses to Israel's actions.
    - I don't really buy the line that Israel has had to respond in the way that they do because their very existence is threatened by their neighbours. If there is one constant in Israel's history, it seems to be the unwavering backing of the USA which, for most of that period has been the pre-eminent global superpower. This isn't to dismiss the threat that individual Israelis have faced.
    - In large part because of the backing of the USA, I think Israel bears a significant amount of moral responsibility for the situation as it was just before October 7. The Israeli government could have been more restrained and could have, for example, taken a harder line with settlers in the West Bank, or could have kept to the 1948 boundaries despite their success in the 67 war. I think it would have been in their interests to do so as my instinct is that terrorism breeds on the mix of perceived injustice and lack of conventional political power - exactly what the Palestinians have had to live with for a few generations.

    If any of the above is right, I think that might explain why Palestine gets more support amongst the UK public than Israel does (if indeed this is true). I cycled past a brand new, huge (like 20 m long) Free Palestine mural on my normal cycle commute today with the stat at the end of it that half of Gaza's population are under 18. It's hard to disagree with the sentiment.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,128

    Is Roger right that Channel 4 claim the rocket almost certainly came from Israel? That's going against pretty much everything I've seen people saying online. What's the evidence?

    The evidence is well-summarised on BBC Verify. I'd advise anyone to look at it before pronouncing.

    IMHO, it points to the missile not being Israeli, but it is very far from conclusive.
    The most interesting point was that most of the damage was from burning liquid fuels from the missile.

    Israel, like the US, doesn't use liquid fuelled ballistic missiles.
    And what about the number of victims? Is an Islamic jihad rocket likely to kill 500 people????

    Comments seemed to be getting messed up...

    As to casualties - no idea.
  • Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has agreed to open the Rafah crossing to a handful of trucks loaded with aid destined for the Gaza Strip, Joe Biden has just announced.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Is Roger right that Channel 4 claim the rocket almost certainly came from Israel? That's going against pretty much everything I've seen people saying online. What's the evidence?

    There is now some conflicting evidence. It's a mess
    https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1714648344365302017

    According to Nathan Ruser some known spreader of disinformation claimed to show the rocket/bomb came from Israel with a video he posted online and got some attention to. I hope to god that isn't what Channel 4 are basing their assertions on. Mr Ruser takes the claims apart in the above thread. Hard to follow but he seems to know his stuff!
    In the end, does it even matter?

    Either side could have done this, both sides are hurling munitions at each other on a large scale, 24/7

    I am willing to believe the Israelis are much more careful in their targeting, nonetheless Israel is dropping bombs and missiles on one of the most crowded places in the world, and they have already killed 2-3000 Gazans, and will surely kill many more. A bomb or a missile that went astray is not an outlandish claim

    Whoever is responsible, Hamas did a good job of turning it into a PR coup, and Israel will just have to accept that - because it comes with the territory if you are the bigger power bombing a smaller entity. You will be the bad guy

    Much larger events will sweep this away, very soon
    A few things. How do we know that 2-3000 Gazans have been killed? If the Gazan authorities have lied about this why would we believe what else they have been telling us? Secondly what of the people like Jeremy Corbyn, Jon Snow, Rachel Clarke and others who have been parroting this stuff on twitter? What does it say about their concern for or ability to ascertain the truth? Be worth making a note of all the luvvies who've swallowed it hook line and sinker and stop taking them seriously.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,137

    Is Roger right that Channel 4 claim the rocket almost certainly came from Israel? That's going against pretty much everything I've seen people saying online. What's the evidence?

    No. I watched Channel 4 news and they didn't say that at all.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587

    Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has agreed to open the Rafah crossing to a handful of trucks loaded with aid destined for the Gaza Strip, Joe Biden has just announced.

    Joe Biden gets things done.
  • Bit rich for Jill Mortimer to foam on about wanting outsiders out of Hartlepool. Amazed that she visited there long enough to notice there was a problem with outsiders...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    Sean_F said:

    King John, a hunted, impoverished, defeated invalid died in this castle at Newark on Trent today in 1216. It was the best move of his career.

    Because 🥁

    His dysentery saved his dynasty.


    https://twitter.com/thehistoryguy/status/1714742398884995382

    One of the few people to be both a vile man and a disastrous king. Had he lived, the House of Capet would have carried out a reverse takeover of England, in addition to the Plantagenet lands in France.
    It's always seemed to me that popular imagining overemphasises the evil side of John - many kings were evil sods, and even within his own immediate kin usurpation/rebellion was hardly a unique vice of his - and under emphasises that he was also pretty crap.

    The Disney Robin Hood being an exception.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-12645435/Belle-banquet-Queen-Camilla-dazzles-Bruce-Oldfield-gown-King-Charles-ceremony-dating-17th-century-City-London.html

    King Charles urges people to rise above 'rancour and acrimony' of social media which stifles 'civilised debate' as he addresses business leaders in the City of London.

    Just cos his sausage digits aren't much good for promulgating rancour and hate on a smartphone.
    His butler surely handles the typing in any case. But the cumberland digits cannot help.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587

    The most interesting point was that most of the damage was from burning liquid fuels from the missile.

    Israel, like the US, doesn't use liquid fuelled ballistic missiles.

    What do they use?

    Genuine question.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,212
    Interesting details from the Trump fraud case.
    Suggests why he might be desperate to be re-elected.

    Last year, Donald Trump owed $2,315,000 of ground rent at 40 Wall Street. An increase to $16,400,000 would be $14,085,000 higher than last year. That's a big problem for Trump. You can see here that his net operating income in 2022 was just $12,537,460...
    https://twitter.com/DanAlexander21/status/1714734689938821281
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,909
    The Met Office are forecasting up to 10 inches of rain in the wettest spots of Angus and Aberdeenshire over Thursday and Friday.

    Ten inches of rain is a kilotonne of water per acre.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:



    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    TimS said:

    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    "The Israeli War Cabinet reportedly told U.S. President Biden today during a Meeting that they have now completed their preparations for an Invasion of the Gaza Strip and that a Ground Operation is now “Imminent.”"

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1714713872920104964?s=20

    I think this calls for a.....

    BRACE

    They will regret it.

    Bogged down in months of house to house slaughter.

    Having ground out a "win" they get to rule Northern Gaza.

    And then what?

    It is a trap.

    Meanwhile, a new generation of radicalised young people is created, the next generation of prospective martyrs and the cycle of violence begins anew.

    I'm sure Israel is well aware of this - how could it not be? Yet the atrocity is so heinous some form of punishment or response has to be meted out otherwise it shows weakness and would invite an internal upheaval leading to an even harsher response.
    This is Jewish history. Century after century.
    It’s always the fault of the Jews, when bad things happen to them.
    Every Jewish intellectual in the west who has loudly espoused mass immigration or multiculturalism is, yes, somewhat responsible for the place they now find themselves

    Jews for Multiculturalism makes as much sense as Queers for Palestine
    This is the worst take of all the utterly shit takes you’ve put forward on here over the years. And that’s saying something.

    Jewish culture is distinct and they have struggled to preserve it against state attempts attempts to enforce uniformity over two millennia. The Jews were the original victims of European monoculturalism and intolerance. When England and Spain expelled them it was not because they were confirming too much to the mainstream. The Spanish Inquisition was not part of the Woke Blob.

    This is such a glaringly obvious point I’m stunned I have to explain it to you.
    But of course. It made sense for Jewish people to seek and encourage multicultural societies, over history, as they have tended to be more tolerant of minorities - and, as you say, monocultures are not going to be like this

    But the history of postwar Europe has showed that this is no longer true, and hasn't been true for a long time. And people have been warning about this for decades. We have imported new forms of anti-Semitism utterly inimical to Jews

    Look at that scary march for Palestine in Whitehall, see who was on that march. It wasn't gammon-faced colonels from Tunbridge Wells with an old streak of Arabianism. It wasn't white skinheads from Deptford. These people don't exist any more. The new anti-Semites are new and largely imported
    Anti-Semitism re-emerges and can do so quite suddenly. Until 1932 if you were going to peg the most antisemitic country in Europe your money would probably be on Post-Dreyfus Affair France - Berlin opened a Jewish cultural museum the week Hitler was appointed chancellor. England has had waves of anti-semitism. History has shown the Jews that no country, especially no European country, has a monopoly on it - hence Israel.
    But by the 1980s, at the latest, it was pretty clear that mass migration from Muslim societies would - in the long run - be really bad for Jews living happily and safely in western European countries, once the virus of native European anti-Semitism had been extinguished after the Holocaust

    People said as much, quite clearly
    OTOH, I don't think that Hindu, Sikh, African Christian, or Indian Muslim immigration poses any sort of danger to Jews.

    Unfortunately, a lot of Middle Eastern Muslims are taught from childhood that everything that is wrong with their societies is the fault of Jews and the West (who are either the sponsors of Zionist colonialism, or else puppets on the Jewish string). And, those beliefs are widely shared by a significant proportion (certainly not all) of European Muslims.

    I don't however think that is necessarily the worst problem. What seems clear to me is that the radical Palestinian cause attracts the backing of those Western people who are fundamentally disaffected from Western society, the sorts of people who would have supported Communism in the Twenties and Thirties. They adhere to the narrative that the West is fundamentally evil. Western sympathy for Jihadism is a sign of rebellion against Western societies. That's what unites Sinn Fein, Maggie Chapman, George Galloway, Owen Jones, Chris Williamson, Jeremy Corbyn etc. It's a minority, but a big one, in most of Europe. That's how you end up with Queers for Palestine.
    That's mostly true (tho I am not at all sure that Indian Muslims are miraculously devoid of anti-Semitism)

    However there are complicating issues. Anti-Semitism really is like a virus, and it has spread from Palestinian/Muslim communites into other minorities and minority causes. eg Black Lives Matter is tainted with it, Because hating Jews is easily mainstreamed into the wider decolonialist narrative, as Jews act like brutal imperialists over Palestine (and they often do, let's be fair)

    And God help us it can be found in the Scottish Greens. A horrible case. Like a face fungus

    Fuck knows how we deal with this. It is bad


    It's certainly no coincidence that academic hatred of Israel (and let's be frank, hatred of Jews) will always be found in Post-Colonial Studies Departments.
    You'd think that would at least keep it isolated in one department, but I doubt we're that lucky.
  • The Met Office are forecasting up to 10 inches of rain in the wettest spots of Angus and Aberdeenshire over Thursday and Friday.

    Ten inches of rain is a kilotonne of water per acre.

    Yes, have just watched the forecast. We're just outside the death zone, but I expect it could get interesting here too...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting details from the Trump fraud case.
    Suggests why he might be desperate to be re-elected.

    Last year, Donald Trump owed $2,315,000 of ground rent at 40 Wall Street. An increase to $16,400,000 would be $14,085,000 higher than last year. That's a big problem for Trump. You can see here that his net operating income in 2022 was just $12,537,460...
    https://twitter.com/DanAlexander21/status/1714734689938821281

    Even assuming he wasn't a big fraud his personal and business finances appear to be a completely chaotic basketcase, which serves no useful purposes other than to make things more complex, and despite his insistent boasts it seems like cash on hand is a perennial issue for him.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,137

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Is Roger right that Channel 4 claim the rocket almost certainly came from Israel? That's going against pretty much everything I've seen people saying online. What's the evidence?

    There is now some conflicting evidence. It's a mess
    https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1714648344365302017

    According to Nathan Ruser some known spreader of disinformation claimed to show the rocket/bomb came from Israel with a video he posted online and got some attention to. I hope to god that isn't what Channel 4 are basing their assertions on. Mr Ruser takes the claims apart in the above thread. Hard to follow but he seems to know his stuff!
    In the end, does it even matter?

    Either side could have done this, both sides are hurling munitions at each other on a large scale, 24/7

    I am willing to believe the Israelis are much more careful in their targeting, nonetheless Israel is dropping bombs and missiles on one of the most crowded places in the world, and they have already killed 2-3000 Gazans, and will surely kill many more. A bomb or a missile that went astray is not an outlandish claim

    Whoever is responsible, Hamas did a good job of turning it into a PR coup, and Israel will just have to accept that - because it comes with the territory if you are the bigger power bombing a smaller entity. You will be the bad guy

    Much larger events will sweep this away, very soon
    A few things. How do we know that 2-3000 Gazans have been killed? If the Gazan authorities have lied about this why would we believe what else they have been telling us? Secondly what of the people like Jeremy Corbyn, Jon Snow, Rachel Clarke and others who have been parroting this stuff on twitter? What does it say about their concern for or ability to ascertain the truth? Be worth making a note of all the luvvies who've swallowed it hook line and sinker and stop taking them seriously.
    Considering the bombardment that we have seen and many demolished buildings in a densely populated City with poor construction standards, 2-3000 looks to be a low estimate to me. There must be lots of bodies in the rubble.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    Is Roger right that Channel 4 claim the rocket almost certainly came from Israel? That's going against pretty much everything I've seen people saying online. What's the evidence?

    The evidence is well-summarised on BBC Verify. I'd advise anyone to look at it before pronouncing.

    IMHO, it points to the missile not being Israeli, but it is very far from conclusive.
    The most interesting point was that most of the damage was from burning liquid fuels from the missile.

    Israel, like the US, doesn't use liquid fuelled ballistic missiles.
    And what about the number of victims? Is an Islamic jihad rocket likely to kill 500 people????

    From what we have seen the damage was a large fire in a car park that was quite full with cars. I'm not sure you could have squeezed 500 people in to that space. I imagine if it was crammed full with people with no space to move then 500 possibly could have perished. If that is the case why have we seen so few videos of the carnage that this would have caused. Wouldn't there have been bodies strewn throughout the car park?

    I am sure some people died but on the balance of probabilities I think it was a relatively small number. What I think may have happened is that when the rocket crashed down outside the hospital someone on the scene decided they could use it for anti-Israeli propaganda. They probably sent out exaggerated messages saying the hospital had been hit by an Israeli bomb, many were dead and the hospital had collapsed. It then grew from there.

    It has had the impact Hamas has wanted. Large numbers of people across the world are now outraged. Despite the fact that the attack came from Gaza and the number of dead was a massive exaggeration.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,952
    edited October 2023

    The Met Office are forecasting up to 10 inches of rain in the wettest spots of Angus and Aberdeenshire over Thursday and Friday.

    Ten inches of rain is a kilotonne of water per acre.

    Last time I was in Angus was the day before the train slide caused by heavy rain. Useless fact. Can't remember whether it was 2021 or 2020.
  • NEW THREAD

  • Thinks looking up for the Tories?


  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,154

    The Met Office are forecasting up to 10 inches of rain in the wettest spots of Angus and Aberdeenshire over Thursday and Friday.

    Ten inches of rain is a kilotonne of water per acre.

    Yes, have just watched the forecast. We're just outside the death zone, but I expect it could get interesting here too...
    It’s been across the island this afternoon and the worst of it is now over Kent, heading north. It looks like the Low Countries are getting is bad, as well.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,128
    kle4 said:

    The most interesting point was that most of the damage was from burning liquid fuels from the missile.

    Israel, like the US, doesn't use liquid fuelled ballistic missiles.

    What do they use?

    Genuine question.
    Solid fuel.

    In the mid fifties, the US and then the Europeans (a bit later) solved the problems of solid fuel for rockets - performance, reliability and above all, reliability of designed thrust levels.

    Solid fuel is still rubbish for space launch - less performance than liquids - but for military purposes, solids other advantages are a clincher.

    They can sit, ready to go at a moments notice, for years. No liquids to leak and corrode everything, and need frequent maintenance.

    Mind you, the latest solid propellants, like CL-20, are pushing 320 seconds of specific impulse - which is beginning to challenge liquid fuels for performance.
  • Andy_JS said:

    The Met Office are forecasting up to 10 inches of rain in the wettest spots of Angus and Aberdeenshire over Thursday and Friday.

    Ten inches of rain is a kilotonne of water per acre.

    Last time I was in Angus was the day before the train slide caused by heavy rain. Useless fact. Can't remember whether it was 2021 or 2020.
    August 2020
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,848
    Andy_JS said:

    "The UK is starting to accept that prison doesn’t work
    As the Justice Secretary has recognised, short sentences are not effective in reducing reoffending.
    By David Gauke"

    https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2023/10/the-uk-is-starting-to-accept-that-prison-doesnt-work

    Without wishing to waste my time on the planet readong anything written by David Gauke, one assumes from the title that he recommends longer sentences,which would absolutely prevent reoffending.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,403

    kle4 said:

    The most interesting point was that most of the damage was from burning liquid fuels from the missile.

    Israel, like the US, doesn't use liquid fuelled ballistic missiles.

    What do they use?

    Genuine question.
    Solid fuel.

    In the mid fifties, the US and then the Europeans (a bit later) solved the problems of solid fuel for rockets - performance, reliability and above all, reliability of designed thrust levels.

    Solid fuel is still rubbish for space launch - less performance than liquids - but for military purposes, solids other advantages are a clincher.

    They can sit, ready to go at a moments notice, for years. No liquids to leak and corrode everything, and need frequent maintenance.

    Mind you, the latest solid propellants, like CL-20, are pushing 320 seconds of specific impulse - which is beginning to challenge liquid fuels for performance.
    Indeed. The Kursk disaster was caused by liquid-fuelled torpedoes going bang. Solids are more robust, damage-tolerant and can be stored for long periods. That's why the US Minuteman and Trident ballistic missiles are solid-fuel.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,915

    When the BBC and Sky both tell us that a hospital has been destroyed and 500 are dead, then the audience believes that a hospital has been destroyed and 500 are dead.

    Well we did yesterday. In future, maybe not.

    We don't know yet.

    The latest number I have seen reported (by MSN) is 200.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,915

    kinabalu said:

    Phil said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    One thing last night shows is that the problem of fake news isn't just confined to social media. Many 'serious' journalists seem to be witting or unwitting purveyors of disinformation.

    There was a disturbing video on TwiX last night which purported to show a terrible fire inside a collapsing hospital. It’s one reason I believed the story that a hospital was collapsing

    Looking at the images today, I can’t see where that fire might have occurred. Where is the ruined shell of a gutted hospital wing?

    So what was that vid. Entirely fake? Doctored? Ripped from some real horror in Syria? Or maybe it was real but it looked worse than it was

    🤷🏼‍♂️
    Probably ripped from Syria or something like that, Hamas PR people probably have all of these clips ready to send to idiot journalists and to spread on social media.
    There are a lot of videos from previous middle east conflicts being shared around to amplify outrage over this one (by both sides).

    Wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Russian social media agitators aren’t stirring the pot as much as possible too.

    You really can’t trust anything on either social media or main stream media until it’s been confirmed by several independent groups these days - the entire space is rammed full of disinformation that grabs your attention because it’s so compelling.
    You really do have to be careful. Having watched some 'rolling' news yesterday I very nearly came on here late evening with a searing post giving my tuppence worth on the whole thing. Only reason I didn't is because I nodded off first, and thank heavens I did because I'd have looked a plonker. As it is I emerge with great credit.
    Never be afraid to look like a plonker. One of PB's finest once raged for days about what3words as the next great thing, five years after everyone else had heard about it. He still posts, from time to time.
    I find What3Words to be quite niche - especially good at communication reducing the likelihood of errors in specifying precise locations, especially compared to Grid Refs of Google Lat Long.

    Potplant.Elite.Turnip is far better than, for example, than 50.77405340603174, -2.406497920527875 on Google.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,915

    Labour MP just over an hour ago:

    https://x.com/andymcdonaldmp/status/1714575746562203893

    The killing of hundreds of Palestinians in Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital is a war crime, as is the Israeli army's collective punishment the civilian population of Gaza as a whole.

    Politicians around the world must say loud and clear: End the siege on Gaza.

    That's Andy McDonald MP, member of the Socialist Campaign Group.

    What would expect him to say?
  • timpletimple Posts: 123

    ClippP said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Mortimer said:

    Barnesian said:

    ..

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    nico679 said:

    Labour lead down to 12 points with More in Common . Fieldwork 14 to 16 October

    Lab 42
    Con 30
    Lib Dem 12
    Reform 7
    Green 6
    SNP 3

    I think events in the Middle East are helping the Cons with attention away from domestic issues .

    The combined Con and Reform at 37 would seriously worry Labour . I think a few weeks back I’d have backed Labour for both by-elections . Now I think they’re more likely to take Tamworth than Mid-Beds . The split votes there and drop in national lead might be too much of a climb . In Tamworth the Tory candidate might have harmed his hopes with Fxckgate.

    This is a swing of 12% since the general election, and Labour need a 10% swing to win a majority with the old boundaries. I think we're heading for a Lab/LD coalition, (which would hopefully introduce proportional representation).
    Such a coalition might want to introduce PR, but they'd probably have to have a referendum on it, and I'm not sure the public would back it, whatever the opinion polls say, since it would mean that Labour and Conservative supporters (usually around 70-75% of the electorate) would have to kiss goodbye to ever having majority governments run by their Party again. Also there's the well known tendency to default to the status quo in anoraky questions as we just saw in the Aussie referendum.

    (But of course I've been wrong often before - I didn't think we'd vote to leave the EU until a day or two before the vote).
    There wouldn't need to be a referendum if PR were in the Labour and Lib Dem manifestos. It is in the LibDem one. The challenge is getting it into the Labour manifesto - even if it is in very small print on page 46.
    What always makes me laugh about those who want to change the constitution, is they think that people will vote exactly the same way if it was changed.

    I know lots of people who have voted LD; only a few of them are actual supporters of the party. It is currently a catchall vote for both anti Tory and anti Labour depending upon constituency.

    UKIP/REF, meanwhile, would do much better under PR, I suspect....
    Yes - UKIP/REF and also the Greens would do much better under PR - and so they should.

    I'm not in favour of a list system (too much power to the Parties and no choice for the voter and no local accountability.

    I'm in favour of a Single Transferable Vote in constituencies of 4 or 5 members where there is competition between members of the same party and also local accountability.

    I'm not in favour of it for party advantage. I'm in favour of it because it would be fairer and more democratic and lead to better government. It would also as a bonus avoid all the tactical voting shenanigans.

    I agree that it may change which party people vote for, perhaps dramatically. But's that OK. That's good. It would be a more honest vote.
    I would prefer constituencies kept the same size and just the single MP but chosen by AV.
    AV avoids tactical voting which is good. But if you support a particular party, you have to vote for whoever that party puts up. There is no competition between contenders from the same party. It gives the parties too much power over voter choice, in my opinion.
    You don't think they could exercise exactly the same control over 3 or 4 candidates as they do over 1? They would still be choosing who those candidates are no matter how many of them you have to choose from.
    But each elector would have only one vote. So the candidates from each party group are also competing against one another.

    Imagine you had a constituency where the Conservative candidates were Rory Stewart, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Dominic Cummings and Suella Braverman. You have to rank them. Which one would get your vote first?

    There is always the risk that a voter, appalled by the attitude and competence of a Conservative candidate, might prefer to vote for a Socialist or Lib Dem candidate ahead o fthe appalling Conservative. So The Party would need to have a good range of candidates to stop its voters rushing off into the arms of Farage,or whatever.

    Rigid party control wth identikit candidates leads only to a loss of support.

    Good innit?
    But that wasn't my point. It was Barnesian who is arguing for STV with multiple MPs and using the reason that it prevents parties deciding who the candidates are. I was poiting out that they can decide that just as easily with 4 candidates from each party as they can with one so it does not reduce the power of the parties at all.
    Yes it does - if there is a particular candidate that the public do not like for whatever reason they can make the other candidates of that party high preference - then switch to other parties leaving the miscreant out. List system you have no chance.
This discussion has been closed.