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Mid Beds betting – CON and LD up while LAB down – politicalbetting.com
Mid Beds betting – CON and LD up while LAB down – politicalbetting.com
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Mid Beds betting – CON and LD up while LAB down – politicalbetting.com
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- that supposedly killed hundreds and demolished a hospital
Because I absolutely don’t see evidence of hundreds dead and there is no demolished hospital
It could still have been Israeli ordnance of some kind. A missile. A chunk of bomb. Israel IS bombarding Gaza
Equally it could have been a misfired Hamas missile, a deliberate Hamas false flag, a fire in a car park caused by something else entirely
What a mess. One thing is for sure amidst the fog of war: Hamas is good at war porn PR. They’ve been doing it for decades and they know how to turn a fire that killed 50 into an epochal atrocity that killed 500
James Cleverly clearly knows who he is talking about here:
Last night, too many jumped to conclusions around the tragic loss of life at Al Ahli hospital.
Getting this wrong would put even more lives at risk.
Wait for the facts, report them clearly and accurately.
Cool heads must prevail.
https://x.com/JamesCleverly/status/1714573399635140798?s=20
Dan Hodges is spot on. It is very quiet on this topic this morning.
We have never seen a more graphic example of the double standards applied to Israel than the wave of condemnation that erupted when people thought the IDF were responsible for the hospital attack, followed by the silence accompanying the realisation it was Hamas or their proxies.
https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1714578145532125638?s=20
There could be two dozen explanations for this, pointing at multiple culprits. So then it becomes a race to win the PR war and seize the narrative
“500 dead in bomb-shattered hospital” is a much better headline than “dozens dead in hospital car park fire” - even though both are horrible
Equally, “40 babies beheaded” is a much better headline than “a number of children murdered” - even though both are horrible
- it holds back on massacres in Israel until they are verified
- pumps Hamas line on the hospital without checking
- wont label Hamas as terrorist despite that being UK policy
- says it must remain impartial when civilians are being beheaded etc., when civilisation exists on calling out such behaviour
I cant help but think there will be a reckoning when this all dies down.
Reform - 4
Conservatives - 6
Labour - 12
Liberal Democrats - 24
Apparently 1500 cars have been totally destroyed in Luton, that is some insurance payout incoming.
The most interesting aspect is that the Labour candidate is a "nice guy". Does that
imply the other candidates are not?
Looking at the images today, I can’t see where that fire might have occurred. Where is the ruined shell of a gutted hospital wing?
So what was that vid. Entirely fake? Doctored? Ripped from some real horror in Syria? Or maybe it was real but it looked worse than the actual damage
🤷🏼♂️
Now about that BBC Verify.....
https://news.sky.com/story/fire-has-destroyed-all-vehicles-in-large-liverpool-car-park-police-say-11191272
Edit - Apparently it cost £20m in 2018. With inflation what do we think now, £30m? More?
Wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Russian social media agitators aren’t stirring the pot as much as possible too.
You really can’t trust anything on either social media or main stream media until it’s been confirmed by several independent groups these days - the entire space is rammed full of disinformation that grabs your attention because it’s so compelling.
Ideas on what it might be:
- Genuine impressions from canvassing
- Large and value taking bets skewing the market, whether just for betting purposes or individual politically motivated punters attempting to create a narrative of Labour drift
- The slight downward oscillation of the
Labour lead in GE polls.
- An impression the Independent has been squeezed out and will not absorb as many Con votes as previously thought (though my thought here is that an Independent can also soak up Con -> Lab/LD switching behaviour, so it's more neutral than sometimes credited)
Anything else?
Following the severe fire in a car park at Luton airport, all 1,405 vehicles currently in the facility are likely to be destroyed when the structure is demolished.
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/luton-airport-fire-car-park-b2430230.html
(Obviously not out of nowhere for the Australians.)
Update on the chapel at the Ahli Hospital in Gaza, the building lost several of its stained glass windows in the explosion, but otherwise appears to be intact.
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1714571497820307470?s=20
And it will be able to churn them out by the trillion, an overwhelming wave of fakery. What do we do then? Mistrust every single image? Then we become reliant on eye witnesses - who might easily be lying
Light aircraft crashes in cemetery. Rescue workers have so far recovered 500 bodies.
The weather is moving up from Brittany now, trundles up the UK, out into the North Sea
over Lothian then just drives onto the coast and Grampians.
No doubt the hills do see big rainfall numbers at times, this wouldn't be unheard of in Cumbria or Snowdonia, but a lot of the forecast focus of the rain here is at landfall and the easternmost upslopes.
Could be a bad one.
Both sides are trying to gain the sympathy of the world
https://x.com/JustinWelby/status/1714366609983213801?s=20
I have seen a switch from “I believe in these principles. Because of reasons X, Y and Z.” To - “I believe in these principles. Because they are right”
The later used to be considered fatuous and shallow - we see it more and more in “main stream”.
This leads to the problem of people not being able to think critically about new things - unless they have an understanding of their own moral framework, how can they apply their own thinking to an issue?
They are stuck waiting for Twatter to tell them what to think.
We’ve come a long way from - “I counted them all out. I counted them all back.”
Without hindsight, what everyone should have been saying (as a few did) is "wait for the evidence".
On one side there will be people who will hold on to the initial story - Israel targeted a hospital and killed more than 500 civilians. Just one example of the massive death toll created by a futile revenge. Even if they can accept some doubt about the details of this event, they will be confident that there are many other civilian targets being hit that don't receive so much publicity.
And then, on the other, the uncertainty and doubt about this one event will lead some people to doubt every report of civilian casualties in Gaza. Perhaps all reports of civilian casualties are exaggerated by a factor of ten? All future events where the IDF makes a mistake, or individuals/units purposefully inflict bloody revenge, can be doubted and discounted by reference to this story.
There will be two different realities we will react to.
For 150 years we’ve had the ultimate proof. “Look, here’s a photo. Shut up”
That is coming to an end. It will challenge how we perceive reality. We go back to a pre-photographic world of rumours and reports which are far more unreliable
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1714250238666404249?t=RaU-45c-iUiSFIlaUKF11Q&s=19
In short, Tories expect their vote to halve to 30%. Not many direct to Labour switchers and lots of abstentions.
It could go any direction, but 30% is pretty unlikely to win.
Well we did yesterday. In future, maybe not.
Not a warning to take lightly.
That explains the BBC coverage of the Voice referendum. I bet it was a bunch of 20 somethings
Previous reporting stated that the areas around the hospitals have been absolutely rammed with people who were hoping to avoid the bombing. A bomb loaded with shrapnel that landed in such an area could potentially kill or maim a lot of people without doing all that much physical damage. Maybe not 500? But hundreds, sure: Fill all the space between the burnt out cars visible in that video with people & you could easily get to those kind of numbers.
It may, at this point, be impossible to get to the actual truth of what happened on the ground, but it does seem clear that this was not some massive ground penetrating Israeli bomb: There’s no crater & little to no blast damage to the surrounding buildings.
Every leak I hear now seems determined to bolster Rishi's position and blame others. Makes me think the letters are pilling up...
What I find fascinating is how willing people are to believe anything Hamas says. I don't believe a word of what they claim. I don't believe their claims of how many have been killed in the last week. When I posted this the other day posters jumped down my throat spouting rubbish that it was aid agencies reporting etc. Well yes, but they are 'reporting' what they get told, not going round counting bodies.
If this looks anything like Storm Frank (2015) it will be bad. Upper Deeside was cut off and it took a long time to repair the washed out roads.
ttps://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/past-times/2774896/storm-frank-2015-floods/
It's another example of people having already made their mind up and interpreting new evidence to fit that opinion.
* The Independent is nowhere - no discussion or interest whatever
* There was a fair amount of tactical voting discussion and a dwindling pool of voters who said they'd decide when in the polling station. But voters saying they would definitely go LibDem were a rarity (I met two) and I'm entirely sure they are not in a position to win.
* However, a LibDem council colleague tells me that LibDem members are being bombarded with messages saying the opposite, that they are poised to win, one more heave, and so on. It may be that the polling movement reflects that, or of course that I'm wrong.
* Labour thinks we are close to winning, but I've yet to meet anyone who was privately prepared to make it a nailed-on prediction. The Tory leaked briefing does anticipate a Labour win in both seats.
* Standing back from direct impressions, the Tories really should be favourites - the size of their majority can only be overcome if the electorate is clear that there is only one serious challenger. I don't think that there are many ex-Tories who will vote LibDem rather than Labour or the opposite out of principle - we are seen as awfully similar these days. But although I think we've edged the tactical vote battle, the flood of LibDem leaflets must be diluting that.
So IMO the odds should be something like Con 2, Lab 2.5, LD 6. But that's of course just my best guess.
Though weapons don't have to be particularly 'dodgy' for mistakes occur.
I don't think you can analyse stuff like this on the basis of how convenient to might be for one side or another, as you're then just adding another set of value judgments and uncertainties.
(FWIW, though, I think it highly unlikely that the Israelis would deliberately bomb a hospital in these particular circumstances.)
That inaccuracy in Gaza goes both ways of course. While most media there is strongly pro-Palestinian, if not pro-Hamas, it is hard to believe that in all these collapsed buildings there are not a lot of uncounted dead.
I might have mentioned it.
(I'm on the Tories at 2.5)
https://x.com/andymcdonaldmp/status/1714575746562203893
The killing of hundreds of Palestinians in Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital is a war crime, as is the Israeli army's collective punishment the civilian population of Gaza as a whole.
Politicians around the world must say loud and clear: End the siege on Gaza.
That leaked report on Sky seems very credible to me, and concludes Lab takes both.
Famously (well, slightly famously), when Mount Everest was first surveyed it was found to be exactly 29000 feet tall. The surveyors lamented that no-one would believe them, and added a spurious extra two feet onto the total.
I think you overestimate the Libs and so would bring the others in a bit. But agree on order.
Our ability to prove that the Holocaust took place, for example, depends much on eye-witness testimony and written records, than on photographic evidence.
So, we'll just have to be sceptical, but we can verify the truth, without just relying upon rumour. Rules of evidence were reasonably sophisticated, even before photography became common. And, people did a lot of fact-checking. A good example is the way people had to do a lot of waiting around in large communal chambers in royal courts, surrounded by lots of courtiers and other bigwigs. The intent was that if someone turned up claiming to be the Spanish ambassador, or the Earl of Devon, there would be people there who could attest to it.
Well, look upon your work and despair.
So where is the condemnation of Hamas for (in their own claims) killing hundreds of their own people.
I’ve been faffing about with Midjourney this week, for a Gazette story. I want images of specific people in specific locations. Midjourney is providing them
When you look at them, there is no way you can tell that these are not real people in real places. They are now 100% convincing
It’s a short step from here to creating an entire atrocity with vivid images from multiple angles, seen at different times of day. We won’t know if it is real. Our instinct will be to believe it, as we have always relied on vision as the ultimate sense