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Andy Burnham backers please explain yourselves – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,114
edited October 2023 in General
Andy Burnham backers please explain yourselves – politicalbetting.com

Just under £34,000 has been wagered on the Next Conservative Leader market on Betfair. Of that, £8,400 has so far been wagered on the most traded contender, Boris Johnson.1/3

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,679
    Sandpit - the Saudis are furious.

    So what was the immediate response to the appalling Hamas attacks? To call time on their peace talks with Israel. At the same time no change regards their re-engagement with Iran. Also co-ordinating oil production cuts with Russia. If they are furious they have a funny way of showing it.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,679
    Wasn't Johnson de facto PCC when he entered Parliament in 2015?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    FrankBooth said:

    Wasn't Johnson de facto PCC when he entered Parliament in 2015?

    But no de jure as the Home Secretary shares responsibility for The Met.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    Why do they keep reviewing these obviously too-high lbw shouts?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited October 2023
    285 is looking like a big total....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    Daily Mail reports that the Israeli attack has been delayed due to weather. Checking the forecast it looks like rain then storms from this afternoon to twilight Monday. So expect the attack either late Monday evening, or after midnight Tuesday?

    Or will they go in at dawn Tuesday for better visibility?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    I think that Burnham being favourite says a lot about the quality of shadow cabinet. There is also the expectation that SKS will win 2 elections and that he will stand down some time in the next Parliament when Burnham may well be back in the Commons.

    But there are so many ifs in that I would definitely be laying at these odds.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    Is that toast I smell burning Or England's world cup?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    DavidL said:

    Is that toast I smell burning Or England's world cup?

    At least we have the rugby to look forward...ohhhh.....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,903
    Burnham is too short but unless you use a sell of him as your base to build a lay book on the market you could be tying up money for ages.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    DavidL said:

    Is that toast I smell burning Or England's world cup?

    At least we have the rugby to look forward...ohhhh.....
    You might be watching that from behind the sofa....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    DavidL said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    DavidL said:

    Is that toast I smell burning Or England's world cup?

    At least we have the rugby to look forward...ohhhh.....
    You might be watching that from behind the sofa....
    I fear Marcus Smith at full back might get treated like a sofa by Fiji.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    FPT regarding CSGs...

    The Ford (with CVW-8) is in the Eastern Med and the Eisenhower (with CVW-3) has just put out from Oceana, VA and so is weeks away.

    Also in the Eastern Med are the Normandy, Hudney, Ramage, Carney and Roosevelt. (Guided Missile Cruiser and 4 x Guided Missile Destroyer).

    Shappsie has sent RFA Argus (aviation training/PCR) but asks us all not to be embarrassed at the paucity of the contribution,
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,001
    DavidL said:

    I think that Burnham being favourite says a lot about the quality of shadow cabinet. There is also the expectation that SKS will win 2 elections and that he will stand down some time in the next Parliament when Burnham may well be back in the Commons.

    But there are so many ifs in that I would definitely be laying at these odds.

    Yeah, the first bit of it makes sense; if Starmer is going to win, then there won't be another Labour leader until 2030ish or later, barring
    accidents. So Burnham needn't be ruled out.

    Apart from that, I reckon it's name recognition. But Starmer's successor is likely to be from the next generation- either as a continuation (Reeves?) or a reaction against (flipnose).

    Either way, it's a long time to wait, and plenty of time for an unknown to break through. Brown after Blair was visible from space, but who would have predicted Major after Maggie in 1978?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    edited October 2023
    FrankBooth said:

    Sandpit - the Saudis are furious.

    So what was the immediate response to the appalling Hamas attacks? To call time on their peace talks with Israel. At the same time no change regards their re-engagement with Iran. Also co-ordinating oil production cuts with Russia. If they are furious they have a funny way of showing it.

    I think the Saudis have been totally flat-footed by events of the past week, and they don’t really know what to think.

    I’ve been saying for months that the West needs to be lobbying OPEC hard, to pump like crazy and get Russia out of the market, reducing Putin’s capacity to wage war in Europe and helping OPEC nations in the long term.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,056
    Stuartinromford said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that Burnham being favourite says a lot about the quality of shadow cabinet. There is also the expectation that SKS will win 2 elections and that he will stand down some time in the next Parliament when Burnham may well be back in the Commons.

    But there are so many ifs in that I would definitely be laying at these odds.

    Yeah, the first bit of it makes sense; if Starmer is going to win, then there won't be another Labour leader until 2030ish or later, barring
    accidents. So Burnham needn't be ruled out.

    Apart from that, I reckon it's name recognition. But Starmer's successor is likely to be from the next generation- either as a continuation (Reeves?) or a reaction against (flipnose).

    Either way, it's a long time to wait, and plenty of time for an unknown to break through. Brown after Blair was visible from space, but who would have predicted Major after Maggie in 1978?
    Major only became an MP in 1979, so I think it is safe to say that in 1978 the only people even contemplating that he would be Thatcheer's successor were John and Norma Major
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598
    Dura_Ace said:

    FPT regarding CSGs...

    The Ford (with CVW-8) is in the Eastern Med and the Eisenhower (with CVW-3) has just put out from Oceana, VA and so is weeks away.

    Also in the Eastern Med are the Normandy, Hudney, Ramage, Carney and Roosevelt. (Guided Missile Cruiser and 4 x Guided Missile Destroyer).

    Shappsie has sent RFA Argus (aviation training/PCR) but asks us all not to be embarrassed at the paucity of the contribution,

    No escort for Argus?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    eristdoof said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that Burnham being favourite says a lot about the quality of shadow cabinet. There is also the expectation that SKS will win 2 elections and that he will stand down some time in the next Parliament when Burnham may well be back in the Commons.

    But there are so many ifs in that I would definitely be laying at these odds.

    Yeah, the first bit of it makes sense; if Starmer is going to win, then there won't be another Labour leader until 2030ish or later, barring
    accidents. So Burnham needn't be ruled out.

    Apart from that, I reckon it's name recognition. But Starmer's successor is likely to be from the next generation- either as a continuation (Reeves?) or a reaction against (flipnose).

    Either way, it's a long time to wait, and plenty of time for an unknown to break through. Brown after Blair was visible from space, but who would have predicted Major after Maggie in 1978?
    Major only became an MP in 1979, so I think it is safe to say that in 1978 the only people even contemplating that he would be Thatcheer's successor were John and Norma Major
    He wouldn’t have even been in the picture on the eve of the Falklands war, when it looked like a Labour government might be on the cards in 1984 and everyone would have been betting on that basis.

    Lay the favourite!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,477
    Leon said:

    Daily Mail reports that the Israeli attack has been delayed due to weather. Checking the forecast it looks like rain then storms from this afternoon to twilight Monday. So expect the attack either late Monday evening, or after midnight Tuesday?

    Or will they go in at dawn Tuesday for better visibility?

    Weather seems less likely than whether the Americans can persuade them to tone it down a bit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    Wes Streeting more likely to be next Labour leader than Burnham
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    Stuartinromford said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that Burnham being favourite says a lot about the quality of shadow cabinet. There is also the expectation that SKS will win 2 elections and that he will stand down some time in the next Parliament when Burnham may well be back in the Commons.

    But there are so many ifs in that I would definitely be laying at these odds.

    Yeah, the first bit of it makes sense; if Starmer is going to win, then there won't be another Labour leader until 2030ish or later, barring
    accidents. So Burnham needn't be ruled out.
    Except....if minority Labour are heading a rainbow coalition that quickly disintegrates so there is another election within 12 months, Starmer is toast.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    Does anyone have an explanation why the Aussies have simply stopped counting in their Voice Vote?

    The completist in me wants to see the final score, and the humiliation of the Woke, but the official tallies have barely budged in 36 hours. Do they simply knock off for the weekend?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    Or is it that when Aussies say "78% of votes" counted they mean "78% of all possible votes counted", and 78% is the turnout? Confusing if so
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,477
    HYUFD said:

    Wes Streeting more likely to be next Labour leader than Burnham

    Maybe, though Streeting would not be the first opposition star who fades in office.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    Leon said:

    Does anyone have an explanation why the Aussies have simply stopped counting in their Voice Vote?

    The completist in me wants to see the final score, and the humiliation of the Woke, but the official tallies have barely budged in 36 hours. Do they simply knock off for the weekend?

    I thought the Guardian had simply taken the huff.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 927
    Lib Dems in Mid Beds seem very confident, are they deluding themselves or do the really know something?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    Leon said:

    Or is it that when Aussies say "78% of votes" counted they mean "78% of all possible votes counted", and 78% is the turnout? Confusing if so

    Isn’t voting compulsory in Australia, or is that just for general elections rather than referenda?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited October 2023
    Feels like England needs a legendary Stokes innings to get them out of this hole....but he is only carrying the drinks.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    edited October 2023
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Does anyone have an explanation why the Aussies have simply stopped counting in their Voice Vote?

    The completist in me wants to see the final score, and the humiliation of the Woke, but the official tallies have barely budged in 36 hours. Do they simply knock off for the weekend?

    I thought the Guardian had simply taken the huff.
    No, it's the same on the official government page

    https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/ReferendumNationalResults-29581.htm

    It hasn't budged much, if at all, in 36 hours, tho it does imply some remoter places - WA and QLD - are still slowly trickling in. Very slowly

    https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/ReferendumUpdatedByDivision-29581.htm
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Feels like England needs a legendary Stokes innings to get them out of this hole....but he is only carrying the drinks.

    These two need to stay together, and start putting on the runs.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Feels like England needs a legendary Stokes innings to get them out of this hole....but he is only carrying the drinks.

    There's a flaw in that reasoning...

    This is not looking close at the moment.
  • TheKitchenCabinetTheKitchenCabinet Posts: 2,275
    O/T and may have been mentioned before but the GOP have recaptured the Governor's office in Louisiana.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,279
    Next Labour leader will probably be someone like Bridget Phillipson or Shabana Mahmood. Someone who will be in Starmer's initial cabinet but whose career won't peak for another few years yet.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,320
    Leon said:

    Or is it that when Aussies say "78% of votes" counted they mean "78% of all possible votes counted", and 78% is the turnout? Confusing if so

    ISTR this being an issue in the GE.
    I suspect your explanation may be correct since voting is compulsory supposedly.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    Winviz is broken again....England still favourites.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    edited October 2023
    Cricinfo win probability 19/81 in favour of Afghanistan, broadcaster win probability 52/48 in favour of England!

    (I assume Betfair is closer to the Cricinfo score)

    Edit: 10 off that over though, so not all bad.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    Sandpit said:

    Cricinfo win probability 19/81 in favour of Afghanistan, broadcaster win probability 52/48 in favour of England!

    (I assume Betfair is closer to the Cricinfo score)

    Tin foil hat on...got to get the punters gambling ;-)
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    FPT regarding CSGs...

    The Ford (with CVW-8) is in the Eastern Med and the Eisenhower (with CVW-3) has just put out from Oceana, VA and so is weeks away.

    Also in the Eastern Med are the Normandy, Hudney, Ramage, Carney and Roosevelt. (Guided Missile Cruiser and 4 x Guided Missile Destroyer).

    Shappsie has sent RFA Argus (aviation training/PCR) but asks us all not to be embarrassed at the paucity of the contribution,

    No escort for Argus?
    GPMG on the starboard rail fitted for but not with ammo.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,699
    Leon said:

    Or is it that when Aussies say "78% of votes" counted they mean "78% of all possible votes counted", and 78% is the turnout? Confusing if so

    Postal/military votes etc can be counted for ages after the election from memory. I believe voters need to post by or on election day not to arrive on election day like here.

    I remember well the 1996 Federal Election while I lived there, my first election where I followed politics. Labor lost and ex PM Paul Keating resigned and Kim Beazley was expected to become the new leader (indeed he was ultimately elected unopposed). However from memory it took about a week for Beazley's own division (constituency) to be declared.

    There was a great deal of uncertainty as to what Labor would do if Beazley lost his seat.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,756
    Dura_Ace said:

    FPT regarding CSGs...

    The Ford (with CVW-8) is in the Eastern Med and the Eisenhower (with CVW-3) has just put out from Oceana, VA and so is weeks away.

    Also in the Eastern Med are the Normandy, Hudney, Ramage, Carney and Roosevelt. (Guided Missile Cruiser and 4 x Guided Missile Destroyer).

    Shappsie has sent RFA Argus (aviation training/PCR) but asks us all not to be embarrassed at the paucity of the contribution,

    Why should Shappsie be embarrassed. Its all Kier Starmer's fault anyway.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598
    edited October 2023
    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    FPT regarding CSGs...

    The Ford (with CVW-8) is in the Eastern Med and the Eisenhower (with CVW-3) has just put out from Oceana, VA and so is weeks away.

    Also in the Eastern Med are the Normandy, Hudney, Ramage, Carney and Roosevelt. (Guided Missile Cruiser and 4 x Guided Missile Destroyer).

    Shappsie has sent RFA Argus (aviation training/PCR) but asks us all not to be embarrassed at the paucity of the contribution,

    No escort for Argus?
    GPMG on the starboard rail fitted for but not with ammo.
    Ah, thanks. When my dad was on a carrier c. 1945, and on destroyers after that, they always had at least one destroyer trailing along after each carrier to fish out the over-intrepid aviators, and do any other odd jobs up to and including attacking enemy cruisers and subs. But I presume the modern RN assume they'll always have a spare budgie available to do the job, whatever job. [Edit: I do know Argus is (primarily?) helicopters.]
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631
    Feeling a bit rubbish today but nothing like England's batting
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    I don't think he would have been doing better, but it's interesting that he is trying, since it was clear from the start tiptoeing around him would not work, and no even does praising him for that matter.

    If Desantis had done this earlier he’d be doing much better: “Trump views everything through the lens of him. If you are kissing his rump, then you’re great. If you’re not, then he’s gonna attack you. That’s not leadership. It’s not about you.”
    https://nitter.net/RonFilipkowski/status/1713555468222697549#m
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Leon said:

    Or is it that when Aussies say "78% of votes" counted they mean "78% of all possible votes counted", and 78% is the turnout? Confusing if so

    Postal/military votes etc can be counted for ages after the election from memory. I believe voters need to post by or on election day not to arrive on election day like here.

    I remember well the 1996 Federal Election while I lived there, my first election where I followed politics. Labor lost and ex PM Paul Keating resigned and Kim Beazley was expected to become the new leader (indeed he was ultimately elected unopposed). However from memory it took about a week for Beazley's own division (constituency) to be declared.

    There was a great deal of uncertainty as to what Labor would do if Beazley lost his seat.
    Ta
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    Buttler you idiot.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    What the hell was Buttler thinking there?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    The silver lining of Afghanistan winning is that it will put Australia bottom of the table, which will be very funny.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    Sandpit said:

    What the hell was Buttler thinking there?

    False premise.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    England obviously want to get this finished before the rugby starts.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    Dura_Ace said:

    FPT regarding CSGs...

    The Ford (with CVW-8) is in the Eastern Med and the Eisenhower (with CVW-3) has just put out from Oceana, VA and so is weeks away.

    Also in the Eastern Med are the Normandy, Hudney, Ramage, Carney and Roosevelt. (Guided Missile Cruiser and 4 x Guided Missile Destroyer).

    Shappsie has sent RFA Argus (aviation training/PCR) but asks us all not to be embarrassed at the paucity of the contribution,

    I must say that I really like the idea of our ships being named after classic albums of 1970s folk/prog rock.

    With a helicopter platform and on board hospital it seems RFS Argus is better suited to evacuating and treating refugees than bombing them.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,544
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Feeling a bit rubbish today but nothing like England's batting

    Hope you feel better soon Big_G. There's no hope for England's batting obvs.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited October 2023
    I always said I agree with Mark Nicholas, we should just get rid of ODI game.....rubbish game, waste of time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    theakes said:

    Lib Dems in Mid Beds seem very confident, are they deluding themselves or do the really know something?

    We have a tendency to think parties behind the scenes have a firmer grasp on what is happening than they may let on publicly. So after a loss we hear about how private data was saying that at the time, or ahead of a win we hear the internal info is looking good.

    Truth of the matter is sometimes they get lucky, but there are plenty of times they are surprised, either by outcome or scale of outcome. If they could reliably figure stuff out from their own info there'd be no shocks.

    So I'd guess they've had a reasonably decent experience thus far and so are full of belief, that's it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    The problem with short forms of the game is it can be next to impossible to dig yourself out of a hole.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,001
    theakes said:

    Lib Dems in Mid Beds seem very confident, are they deluding themselves or do the really know something?

    They've certainly found a new type of graph to plot;



    But at this stage, what else can they say?

    "Naah, we aren't going to win, but vote for us anyway."
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,006
    England 101/4 v Afghanistan, chasing 285.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/66854581
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    Commentator - 'England's start hasn't been great at all.'

    No. Shit. Sherlock.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,030
    Leon said:

    Daily Mail reports that the Israeli attack has been delayed due to weather. Checking the forecast it looks like rain then storms from this afternoon to twilight Monday. So expect the attack either late Monday evening, or after midnight Tuesday?

    Or will they go in at dawn Tuesday for better visibility?

    It’s an excuse to give more time to the civilians to escape without looking weak.

    Don’t think they are being charitable: civilians get in the way of military operations (soldiers don’t like killing unarmed people and children) and the PR is bad. So it’s in Israel’s interest to minimise the number of casualties
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    kle4 said:

    The problem with short forms of the game is it can be next to impossible to dig yourself out of a hole.

    That's what I really like about ODIs. There is enough time for the game to swing back and forward. Many of the best days I have spent at the cricket has been at ODIs.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    StillWaters said:

    Leon said:

    Daily Mail reports that the Israeli attack has been delayed due to weather. Checking the forecast it looks like rain then storms from this afternoon to twilight Monday. So expect the attack either late Monday evening, or after midnight Tuesday?

    Or will they go in at dawn Tuesday for better visibility?

    It’s an excuse to give more time to the civilians to escape without looking weak.

    Don’t think they are being charitable: civilians get in the way of military operations (soldiers don’t like killing unarmed people and children) and the PR is bad. So it’s in Israel’s interest to minimise the number of casualties
    That also occurred to me

    OTOH I am certain the Israelis don't want 300,000 troops (and their materiel) sitting in a field north of Gaza for much longer. It is a prime target for any local with a grudge, or an Iranian with a missile. So there is also pressure to get going
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,160
    Aren't these Burnham bets from some considerable time ago though?

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,006
    theakes said:

    Lib Dems in Mid Beds seem very confident, are they deluding themselves or do the really know something?

    Lab voters are always more likely to move to the LDs than vice versa.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    On topic, I assume it's about name recognition as much as anything else. He's the only person who stood in both 2010 and 2015 still active in politics.

    Worth remembering he did rather badly both times. Fourth in 2010 and a very poor second to the Jezaster in 2015.

    He has as much chance of coming back as England in this match. But most people don't know who the real runners and riders are for next time.

    To be fair, I don't either, and my hunch is it will be somebody unexpected.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598
    kle4 said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    theakes said:

    Lib Dems in Mid Beds seem very confident, are they deluding themselves or do the really know something?

    They've certainly found a new type of graph to plot;



    But at this stage, what else can they say?

    "Naah, we aren't going to win, but vote for us anyway."
    I know Labour are meant to be anti-car, but I don't see why they couldn't have driven in their candidate from London rather than bringing them in by ship.
    Even odder, as there is no canal to Bedford.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    StillWaters said:

    Leon said:

    Daily Mail reports that the Israeli attack has been delayed due to weather. Checking the forecast it looks like rain then storms from this afternoon to twilight Monday. So expect the attack either late Monday evening, or after midnight Tuesday?

    Or will they go in at dawn Tuesday for better visibility?

    It’s an excuse to give more time to the civilians to escape without looking weak.

    Don’t think they are being charitable: civilians get in the way of military operations (soldiers don’t like killing unarmed people and children) and the PR is bad. So it’s in Israel’s interest to minimise the number of casualties
    IDF caught on the hop too. An invasion takes a while to organise if it isn't to blunder into Hamas anti-tank weapons.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    theakes said:

    Lib Dems in Mid Beds seem very confident, are they deluding themselves or do the really know something?

    They've certainly found a new type of graph to plot;



    But at this stage, what else can they say?

    "Naah, we aren't going to win, but vote for us anyway."
    I know Labour are meant to be anti-car, but I don't see why they couldn't have driven in their candidate from London rather than bringing them in by ship.
    Even odder, as there is no canal to Bedford.
    So their candidate would be locked out?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    theakes said:

    Lib Dems in Mid Beds seem very confident, are they deluding themselves or do the really know something?

    They've certainly found a new type of graph to plot;



    But at this stage, what else can they say?

    "Naah, we aren't going to win, but vote for us anyway."
    I know Labour are meant to be anti-car, but I don't see why they couldn't have driven in their candidate from London rather than bringing them in by ship.
    Even odder, as there is no canal to Bedford.
    Damn infrastructure cuts, so short sighted.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,253
    Leon said:

    Or is it that when Aussies say "78% of votes" counted they mean "78% of all possible votes counted", and 78% is the turnout? Confusing if so

    I thought voting was compulsory in Australia.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    StillWaters said:

    Leon said:

    Daily Mail reports that the Israeli attack has been delayed due to weather. Checking the forecast it looks like rain then storms from this afternoon to twilight Monday. So expect the attack either late Monday evening, or after midnight Tuesday?

    Or will they go in at dawn Tuesday for better visibility?

    It’s an excuse to give more time to the civilians to escape without looking weak.

    Don’t think they are being charitable: civilians get in the way of military operations (soldiers don’t like killing unarmed people and children) and the PR is bad. So it’s in Israel’s interest to minimise the number of casualties
    Israel’s soldiers hate the idea of civilian casualties. As opposed to the Hamas terrorists, who celebrate them.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Leon said:

    Or is it that when Aussies say "78% of votes" counted they mean "78% of all possible votes counted", and 78% is the turnout? Confusing if so

    I thought voting was compulsory in Australia.
    Thought maybe that was not for referendums, which would be weird, but apparently not:


  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    Leon said:

    Daily Mail reports that the Israeli attack has been delayed due to weather. Checking the forecast it looks like rain then storms from this afternoon to twilight Monday. So expect the attack either late Monday evening, or after midnight Tuesday?

    Or will they go in at dawn Tuesday for better visibility?

    Must be tough for you, continually keeping one hand free for when it all kicks off.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    I have often wondered what people think Liam Livingstone brings to England.

    I am still wondering.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    That's surely out
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631
    edited October 2023
    This is embarrassing
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,001
    ydoethur said:

    On topic, I assume it's about name recognition as much as anything else. He's the only person who stood in both 2010 and 2015 still active in politics.

    Worth remembering he did rather badly both times. Fourth in 2010 and a very poor second to the Jezaster in 2015.

    He has as much chance of coming back as England in this match. But most people don't know who the real runners and riders are for next time.

    To be fair, I don't either, and my hunch is it will be somebody unexpected.

    Puts Sunak's loss to Truss in perspective.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    DavidL said:

    That's surely out

    I suppose as he was the last batsman it might be worth a review as they had one spare, but I don't think even Shane Watson would have bothered with that one.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    edited October 2023
    Oh dear.

    Why waste a review on that, did Brook at the other end not see that was plumb in front?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    ydoethur said:

    I have often wondered what people think Liam Livingstone brings to England.

    I am still wondering.

    His bowling was superb today and meant they didn't need to bowl Woakes any more. His hitting power is tremendous but probably more useful in the T20 format.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Daily Mail reports that the Israeli attack has been delayed due to weather. Checking the forecast it looks like rain then storms from this afternoon to twilight Monday. So expect the attack either late Monday evening, or after midnight Tuesday?

    Or will they go in at dawn Tuesday for better visibility?

    Must be tough for you, continually keeping one hand free for when it all kicks off.
    I calm myself down by occasionally reading your comments, which even when brief are so boring they act as a mild form of tranquiliser
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited October 2023
    ydoethur said:

    I have often wondered what people think Liam Livingstone brings to England.

    I am still wondering.

    Its two fold, if he gets going he can single-handedly win a game by striking at a rate nobody else can, plus his bowling.

    The problem is Livingstone over the last year has been in absolutely terrible form, he has been told by England to really attack without fear, but that has transitioned into him more often than not trying to hit every ball as hard as possible. His technique has gone to shit and now caught in a mess of ideas.

    Its the same way Jason Roy has continued to get picked despite awful form for a long time.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    England have the same chance of winning this as Susan Acland-Hood has of a lucid moment.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179
    kle4 said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    theakes said:

    Lib Dems in Mid Beds seem very confident, are they deluding themselves or do the really know something?

    They've certainly found a new type of graph to plot;



    But at this stage, what else can they say?

    "Naah, we aren't going to win, but vote for us anyway."
    I know Labour are meant to be anti-car, but I don't see why they couldn't have driven in their candidate from London rather than bringing them in by ship.
    There's a rumour Starmer wants to turn HS2 into a land-locked ship canal.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,699
    StillWaters said:

    Leon said:

    Daily Mail reports that the Israeli attack has been delayed due to weather. Checking the forecast it looks like rain then storms from this afternoon to twilight Monday. So expect the attack either late Monday evening, or after midnight Tuesday?

    Or will they go in at dawn Tuesday for better visibility?

    It’s an excuse to give more time to the civilians to escape without looking weak.

    Don’t think they are being charitable: civilians get in the way of military operations (soldiers don’t like killing unarmed people and children) and the PR is bad. So it’s in Israel’s interest to minimise the number of casualties
    And yet they won't get any gratitude for giving civilians time to get out, instead they'll be hated for every human shield Hamas uses that gets tragically killed.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    williamglenn said:

    kle4 said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    theakes said:

    Lib Dems in Mid Beds seem very confident, are they deluding themselves or do the really know something?

    They've certainly found a new type of graph to plot;



    But at this stage, what else can they say?

    "Naah, we aren't going to win, but vote for us anyway."
    I know Labour are meant to be anti-car, but I don't see why they couldn't have driven in their candidate from London rather than bringing them in by ship.
    There's a rumour Starmer wants to turn HS2 into a land-locked ship canal.
    Foolish.

    Locks with land in are no use at all.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    FPT regarding CSGs...

    The Ford (with CVW-8) is in the Eastern Med and the Eisenhower (with CVW-3) has just put out from Oceana, VA and so is weeks away.

    Also in the Eastern Med are the Normandy, Hudney, Ramage, Carney and Roosevelt. (Guided Missile Cruiser and 4 x Guided Missile Destroyer).

    Shappsie has sent RFA Argus (aviation training/PCR) but asks us all not to be embarrassed at the paucity of the contribution,

    No escort for Argus?
    GPMG on the starboard rail fitted for but not with ammo.
    Ah, thanks. When my dad was on a carrier c. 1945, and on destroyers after that, they always had at least one destroyer trailing along after each carrier to fish out the over-intrepid aviators, and do any other odd jobs up to and including attacking enemy cruisers and subs. But I presume the modern RN assume they'll always have a spare budgie available to do the job, whatever job. [Edit: I do know Argus is (primarily?) helicopters.]
    You are underestimating the lean, agile, AI-enabled character of today's RN. Argus has no deployed aviation - it's got no hangar for a start. So no need for escort or SAR. Smart thinking that wins wars.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    I haven't been followng this, so are we quite shit at ODIs now?

    Ah well, we had a good run
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited October 2023
    Another big problem for the likes of Livingstone is he never plays any extended form of the game. He doesn't play red ball and 50 over cricket happens at the same time as Hundred. So there is no practice in building an innings. He only play bash-it-ball and if you get into a rut, you see very few balls over an extended period of time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    Leon said:

    I haven't been followng this, so are we quite shit at ODIs now?

    Ah well, we had a good run

    No, we're not, hence the shock.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,903
    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    O/T and may have been mentioned before but the GOP have recaptured the Governor's office in Louisiana.

    Not by a magalomaniac, I hope?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited October 2023
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    I haven't been followng this, so are we quite shit at ODIs now?

    Ah well, we had a good run

    No, we're not, hence the shock.
    I don't think the prevailing thought was England were in anywhere the same position as when they won the WC last time. Roy form has gone so having to open with somebody who isn't an opener, Livingstone in terrible form, there is no Archer, Stokes is on one leg, Rashid shoulder is buggered, they never found a replacement for Plunkett, and obviously the genius of Eoin Morgan.

    It is a significantly weaker team than last WC.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,627
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    I haven't been followng this, so are we quite shit at ODIs now?

    Ah well, we had a good run

    No, we're not, hence the shock.
    We haven't lost this yet but we are well behind. If we lose we will need to win all but one of our remaining group games. This means 3 out of 4 v Australia, India, Pakistan and South Africa. Assuming we beat Netherlands too.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,544
    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    theakes said:

    Lib Dems in Mid Beds seem very confident, are they deluding themselves or do the really know something?

    They've certainly found a new type of graph to plot;



    But at this stage, what else can they say?

    "Naah, we aren't going to win, but vote for us anyway."
    I know Labour are meant to be anti-car, but I don't see why they couldn't have driven in their candidate from London rather than bringing them in by ship.
    Even odder, as there is no canal to Bedford.
    Damn infrastructure cuts, so short sighted.
    It's in the pipeline, proposed in 1810 apparently, just waiting on HMG's approval.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,705
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    StillWaters said:

    Leon said:

    Daily Mail reports that the Israeli attack has been delayed due to weather. Checking the forecast it looks like rain then storms from this afternoon to twilight Monday. So expect the attack either late Monday evening, or after midnight Tuesday?

    Or will they go in at dawn Tuesday for better visibility?

    It’s an excuse to give more time to the civilians to escape without looking weak.

    Don’t think they are being charitable: civilians get in the way of military operations (soldiers don’t like killing unarmed people and children) and the PR is bad. So it’s in Israel’s interest to minimise the number of casualties
    And yet they won't get any gratitude for giving civilians time to get out, instead they'll be hated for every human shield Hamas uses that gets tragically killed.
    In an up-to-date version of Dante's Inferno, there would be a special circle for the social media cheerleaders.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    I haven't been followng this, so are we quite shit at ODIs now?

    Ah well, we had a good run

    No, we're not, hence the shock.
    I don't think the prevailing thought was England were in anywhere the same position as when they won the WC last time. Roy form has gone, as has Livingstone, there is no Archer, Stokes is on one leg, Rashid shoulder is buggered, they never found a replacement for Plunkett, and obviously the genius of Eoin Morgan.

    It is a significantly weaker team than last WC.
    The continuous injuries for Stokes is a particular problem. A world class batsman who can do 10 decent overs and is one of the best fielders ever gives his team massive advantages. The modern Stokes who can hardly bowl and is not as lithe in the field, not nearly so much.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited October 2023
    DavidL said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    I haven't been followng this, so are we quite shit at ODIs now?

    Ah well, we had a good run

    No, we're not, hence the shock.
    I don't think the prevailing thought was England were in anywhere the same position as when they won the WC last time. Roy form has gone, as has Livingstone, there is no Archer, Stokes is on one leg, Rashid shoulder is buggered, they never found a replacement for Plunkett, and obviously the genius of Eoin Morgan.

    It is a significantly weaker team than last WC.
    The continuous injuries for Stokes is a particular problem. A world class batsman who can do 10 decent overs and is one of the best fielders ever gives his team massive advantages. The modern Stokes who can hardly bowl and is not as lithe in the field, not nearly so much.
    Absolutely...also the likes of Woakes are no where near as good in India as they are in England.

    The bowling unit is significantly weaker in terms of talent / vs conditions, while the batting isn't in top form.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    Grr, my local now realises they can’t put cricket and rugby on at the same time, as they’re both on the same weird subscription service and they only have one subscription!
This discussion has been closed.