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Andy Burnham backers please explain yourselves – politicalbetting.com

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  • Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, said on Sunday that the Egyptian-controlled border crossing into Gaza would reopen and the US was working with Egypt, Israel and the United Nations to get assistance through it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    Electric cars drive UK MG sales to more than £1bn
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67115975
  • Leon said:

    France will win this, red card or not, they are too good. But the Boks are brilliant

    England will, ahem, struggle a tad against France

    I can't see France losing to NZ at home, not in a final in fervent Paris

    Ireland might have given them a game, but the ABs it is, yet the ABs are not a vintage AB side and they got a bit lucky against an Irish machine on the blink

    Bur what a series of quarter finals!

    Weirdly I reckon SA will win despite France having a points and man advantage
    Called it!
    You did
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Bloody SA . France played some beautiful rugby .
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792
    Wow.

    So as the only group winner to still bein it, England must now be favourites. I'm sure our 6 nations counterparts will now be right behind England.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    So we play South Africa in both the cricket and rugby world cups on Saturday
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    edited October 2023
    Once cgain, a team with the Union Jack in its flag, either entirely or as fundamental symbolism, will win the Rugby World Cup

    Rex Britanniae, Rex Futurae
  • Leon said:

    Once cgain, a team with the Union Jack in its flag, either entirely or as fundamental symbolism, will win the Rugby World Cup

    Rex Britanniae, Rex Futurae

    Where on Argentina's flag is the Union Jack?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    France will win this, red card or not, they are too good. But the Boks are brilliant

    England will, ahem, struggle a tad against France

    I can't see France losing to NZ at home, not in a final in fervent Paris

    Ireland might have given them a game, but the ABs it is, yet the ABs are not a vintage AB side and they got a bit lucky against an Irish machine on the blink

    Bur what a series of quarter finals!

    Weirdly I reckon SA will win despite France having a points and man advantage
    Called it!
    Well done

    Tho to be honest i don't think any of us had a clue about probably


    THE FOUR GREATEST QUARTER FINALS EVER PLAYED IN RUGBY

    Every single one went to the line. Monumental. Rugby graduated as a sport, here. Nothing is like this
    Absolutely right. Extraordinary sport. A privilege to watch this weekend.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051

    The Northern Hemisphere teams have really got to stop leaving it to England alone to be a top-four side.

    It will bring a tear to my eye when the French support us on this basis next weekend. It’ll be like playing at home.
  • I'm married to a South African.

    I suspect she'll be the happier one after the Semi.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812

    England are getting stepmommed in the semi final.

    The try by Etzebeth reminded me of the one Jonah Lomu scored against England in SA. Just an absolutely absurd display of strength and determination. I have no idea how England can stop him.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    edited October 2023
    Scotland through in the fitba without playing. Steve Clarke has done an amazing job TBF.
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    France will win this, red card or not, they are too good. But the Boks are brilliant

    England will, ahem, struggle a tad against France

    I can't see France losing to NZ at home, not in a final in fervent Paris

    Ireland might have given them a game, but the ABs it is, yet the ABs are not a vintage AB side and they got a bit lucky against an Irish machine on the blink

    Bur what a series of quarter finals!

    Weirdly I reckon SA will win despite France having a points and man advantage
    Called it!
    Well done

    Tho to be honest i don't think any of us had a clue about probably...

    THE FOUR GREATEST QUARTER FINALS EVER PLAYED IN RUGBY

    Every single one went to the line. Monumental. Rugby graduated as a sport, here. Nothing is like this
    Rugby is fun, but it's not a sniff on The Ashes.
  • Foreign national Palestinians will be able to cross the border into Egypt on Monday from 9am.

    Kamel Khatib, the Embassy of Palestine representative for the Rafah border, said that humanitarian aid will begin crossing into Gaza at the same time.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    Once cgain, a team with the Union Jack in its flag, either entirely or as fundamental symbolism, will win the Rugby World Cup

    Rex Britanniae, Rex Futurae

    Where on Argentina's flag is the Union Jack?
    lol. Bless. Argentina
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067

    I'm married to a South African.

    I suspect she'll be the happier one after the Semi.

    I need to get my mind out of the gutter.
    Beat me to it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,630
    edited October 2023
    DavidL said:

    England are getting stepmommed in the semi final.

    The try by Etzebeth reminded me of the one Jonah Lomu scored against England in SA. Just an absolutely absurd display of strength and determination. I have no idea how England can stop him.
    The only way England are stopping him is if they hire a sniper.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,710

    I'm married to a South African.

    I suspect she'll be the happier one after the Semi.

    I need to get my mind out of the gutter.
    But are you looking at the stars?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792
    kinabalu said:

    mickydroy said:

    Both France and South Africa look superior to England tonight, but have they left their semi final chanches on the pitch tonight?

    It's possible but I'd say there's more chance of the much weaker team pulling off an upset in one match in football than in rugby.
    Yes, true. The better team in rugby almost always wins.
    England are a decent set of players. It's not impossible they could pull a magnificent performamce out of the bag and/or South Africa self-combust. But I'd say from here in 9 out of 10 universes SouthAfrica win the semi.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812

    Scotland through in the fitba without playing. Steve Clarke has done an amazing job TBF.

    Even against Spain I thought they played well and as a team that seemed a lot more than the sum of its parts. A tremendous managerial achievement that.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,710
    Nigelb said:

    Polish ruling party set to lose majority - exit poll
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67118787
    The right-wing populist Law and Justice party is on course to win most seats in Poland's general election, an exit poll suggests, but will struggle to secure a third term in office.
    Known as PiS, it is set to win 36.8% of the vote, with the centrist opposition on 31.6%, says the Ipsos poll.
    But if it is correct, Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition has a greater chance of forming a coalition...


    Poland might just remain a full democracy.

    Thank the gods. Fingers crossed Tusk hasn't spoken too soon.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908

    I'm married to a South African.

    I suspect she'll be the happier one after the Semi.

    Might give you a broader perspective. Thoughtful and speaks for many of us.

    https://twitter.com/OmarKamel/status/1713378370304561274
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051

    DavidL said:

    England are getting stepmommed in the semi final.

    The try by Etzebeth reminded me of the one Jonah Lomu scored against England in SA. Just an absolutely absurd display of strength and determination. I have no idea how England can stop him.
    The only way England are stopping him is if they hire a sniper.
    We do have a higher budget. 🤔
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    stodge said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting piece by Mark Pack on how the polls may have got it wrong for Labour.

    https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/what-should-worry-labour-in-the-polls

    Interesting and liked, thank you
    It doesn't tell us anything new to be honest. We know Starmer is not as wildly popular as Blair was in 1995-97. To be fair to Starmer, Blair is a hard act to follow and had there been no Blair (with all the cynicism the period produced), I think Starmer would be much more popular.

    As New Zealand showed yesterday, it's quite possible for an opposition to win solely because the incumbent Government has become so unpopular and the swing achieved by Luxon isn't far off what the polls are predicting Starmer will get.
    I though the lack of Tactical Voting interesting, though not sure how an MRP shows it.
    We'll see what happens when the election is called - it may be the legacy of the coalition (which ended eight and a half years ago) makes it hard for some Labour inclined to consider voting LD. There's also the truth there aren't that many seats where the LDs are the main challenger compared to the number where Labour is the challenger.

    It's also been historically the case Labour voters are more willing to vote LD than LD voters are to voter Labour.
    The moronic activities of the Libs in Mid Beds won’t help. Hubris, idiocy and arrogance rolled into one.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    England are the only unbeaten team left in the Rugby World Cup
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    Leon said:

    Once cgain, a team with the Union Jack in its flag, either entirely or as fundamental symbolism, will win the Rugby World Cup

    Rex Britanniae, Rex Futurae

    Rex Futurus, surely.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,710
    On Poland:

    Ian Dunt
    @IanDunt
    ·
    1h
    Yes, it's an odd feeling isn't it. It's called hope. We haven't had that for some time. If these results come out as projected it'll be a massive moment for liberal democracy in Europe. An absolutely massive moment.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,586

    On Poland:

    Ian Dunt
    @IanDunt
    ·
    1h
    Yes, it's an odd feeling isn't it. It's called hope. We haven't had that for some time. If these results come out as projected it'll be a massive moment for liberal democracy in Europe. An absolutely massive moment.

    Would tusk still veto Hungary being thrown out of the EU, like the incumbent would?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Nigelb said:

    I'm married to a South African.

    I suspect she'll be the happier one after the Semi.

    I need to get my mind out of the gutter.
    Beat me to it.
    Excuse me?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    France will win this, red card or not, they are too good. But the Boks are brilliant

    England will, ahem, struggle a tad against France

    I can't see France losing to NZ at home, not in a final in fervent Paris

    Ireland might have given them a game, but the ABs it is, yet the ABs are not a vintage AB side and they got a bit lucky against an Irish machine on the blink

    Bur what a series of quarter finals!

    Weirdly I reckon SA will win despite France having a points and man advantage
    Called it!
    Well done

    Tho to be honest i don't think any of us had a clue about probably...

    THE FOUR GREATEST QUARTER FINALS EVER PLAYED IN RUGBY

    Every single one went to the line. Monumental. Rugby graduated as a sport, here. Nothing is like this
    Rugby is fun, but it's not a sniff on The Ashes.
    The difference between rugby and test cricket, for me, is this: There is no sport I would rather watch than England playing test cricket. But as a neutral, thereis no sport I would rather watch than rugby.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    .

    Nigelb said:

    I'm married to a South African.

    I suspect she'll be the happier one after the Semi.

    I need to get my mind out of the gutter.
    Beat me to it.
    Excuse me?
    You're looking at the stars, too ?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    France will win this, red card or not, they are too good. But the Boks are brilliant

    England will, ahem, struggle a tad against France

    I can't see France losing to NZ at home, not in a final in fervent Paris

    Ireland might have given them a game, but the ABs it is, yet the ABs are not a vintage AB side and they got a bit lucky against an Irish machine on the blink

    Bur what a series of quarter finals!

    Weirdly I reckon SA will win despite France having a points and man advantage
    Called it!
    Well done

    Tho to be honest i don't think any of us had a clue about probably...

    THE FOUR GREATEST QUARTER FINALS EVER PLAYED IN RUGBY

    Every single one went to the line. Monumental. Rugby graduated as a sport, here. Nothing is like this
    Rugby is fun, but it's not a sniff on The Ashes.
    The difference between rugby and test cricket, for me, is this: There is no sport I would rather watch than England playing test cricket. But as a neutral, thereis no sport I would rather watch than rugby.
    Nicely put

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,243
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Taz said:

    Cashless society is impacting the ability of charities and other groups to raise funds for good causes.

    https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/comment/article-12630377/JEFF-PRESTRIDGE-March-cashless-society-continues.html

    hmmm so two bits of that article...quotes incoming "yet a recent change in the classification of the Lions account by HSBC means any cash deposits or withdrawals attract a 1.5 per cent charge."

    and

    "What jars,' says Jim, 'is that the payment machines and the online ticketing system we use charge on a percentage of takings basis. So for our recent Beer Festival in August, we made a profit of £8,000 instead of £9,000."

    So on 9000 depositing cash would have cost 135 but using cashless systems cost a 1000. Aren't the proponents of cashless always telling us its so much cheaper for things to be cashless?

    It doesn't past the smell test.

    Cashless is much cheaper usually.

    Transaction charges on debit cards is something like 30p per transaction, 2% for Mastercard and Visa credit cards, and 4% for AMEX.

    (There are other transaction charging percentages but that's the usual ballpark.)
    which totally passes the smell test, to take your lowest figure 30p on debit cards.....you only need an average payment of 3.33. Even upping it to £5 would incurs a cost of £540
    But there are pricing models for high volume low value transactions so they don't get charged the amount they say.
    They stated if they sold 9k they only had 8k left after bank charges for cashless and online ticketing. If you think they are lying about it provide a source. Whereas they also state it would cost them 1.5% to deposit the cash which at 9k would cost £135. Using online ticketing and cashless
    payments therefore unless they are lying cost the an extra £865. If you think they are lying provide a source
    9k is the profit not the revenue mind

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    edited October 2023

    stodge said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting piece by Mark Pack on how the polls may have got it wrong for Labour.

    https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/what-should-worry-labour-in-the-polls

    Interesting and liked, thank you
    It doesn't tell us anything new to be honest. We know Starmer is not as wildly popular as Blair was in 1995-97. To be fair to Starmer, Blair is a hard act to follow and had there been no Blair (with all the cynicism the period produced), I think Starmer would be much more popular.

    As New Zealand showed yesterday, it's quite possible for an opposition to win solely because the incumbent Government has become so unpopular and the swing achieved by Luxon isn't far off what the polls are predicting Starmer will get.
    I though the lack of Tactical Voting interesting, though not sure how an MRP shows it.
    We'll see what happens when the election is called - it may be the legacy of the coalition (which ended eight and a half years ago) makes it hard for some Labour inclined to consider voting LD. There's also the truth there aren't that many seats where the LDs are the main challenger compared to the number where Labour is the challenger.

    It's also been historically the case Labour voters are more willing to vote LD than LD voters are to voter Labour.
    The moronic activities of the Libs in Mid Beds won’t help. Hubris, idiocy and arrogance rolled into one.
    You seem to be really angered by the LDs in Mid Beds, and I still cannot really see why. It isn't the job of Labour or the LDs to work together to beat the Tories, even if it would make getting the Tories out a lot easier. Neither is entitled to the votes of the other, or to stand down for the other. That would be truly arrogant.

    The Tories potentially clinging on in a by-election in a seat which should never be under threat in the first place is not exactly going to change the political narrative much. I mean, it was in the top 10% safest seats for the Tories.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,632

    stodge said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting piece by Mark Pack on how the polls may have got it wrong for Labour.

    https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/what-should-worry-labour-in-the-polls

    Interesting and liked, thank you
    It doesn't tell us anything new to be honest. We know Starmer is not as wildly popular as Blair was in 1995-97. To be fair to Starmer, Blair is a hard act to follow and had there been no Blair (with all the cynicism the period produced), I think Starmer would be much more popular.

    As New Zealand showed yesterday, it's quite possible for an opposition to win solely because the incumbent Government has become so unpopular and the swing achieved by Luxon isn't far off what the polls are predicting Starmer will get.
    I though the lack of Tactical Voting interesting, though not sure how an MRP shows it.
    We'll see what happens when the election is called - it may be the legacy of the coalition (which ended eight and a half years ago) makes it hard for some Labour inclined to consider voting LD. There's also the truth there aren't that many seats where the LDs are the main challenger compared to the number where Labour is the challenger.

    It's also been historically the case Labour voters are more willing to vote LD than LD voters are to voter Labour.
    The moronic activities of the Libs in Mid Beds won’t help. Hubris, idiocy and arrogance rolled into one.
    Well, we will see on Friday.

    Interesting to see who really is the best challenger in such a Blue Wall seat.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    Probably two very one-sided semis to come.....sadly. We've got rather used to not having a clue who will win in the 79th minute.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,243

    Six tries in 30 mins, I need a cigarette as I cannot cope.

    Don't, it's so bad for you.
    I know, it's why I smoke cigars.
    Last time I smoke a cougar I woke up feeling like a hamster had expired in my mouth
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,647
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Once cgain, a team with the Union Jack in its flag, either entirely or as fundamental symbolism, will win the Rugby World Cup

    Rex Britanniae, Rex Futurae

    Where on Argentina's flag is the Union Jack?
    lol. Bless. Argentina
    Leondamus...

    Argentina to hold two world cups at the same time?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    AlistairM said:

    England represent Northern Hemisphere rugby in the semis.....

    Would anyone have predicted that 3 months ago?
    Given that there draw was made nearly 3 years ago. Yes.
    I've been predicting England to make the semis for a few years.
    I've also been predicting a final between the two semi finalists from the top half for a couple of years.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting piece by Mark Pack on how the polls may have got it wrong for Labour.

    https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/what-should-worry-labour-in-the-polls

    Interesting and liked, thank you
    It doesn't tell us anything new to be honest. We know Starmer is not as wildly popular as Blair was in 1995-97. To be fair to Starmer, Blair is a hard act to follow and had there been no Blair (with all the cynicism the period produced), I think Starmer would be much more popular.

    As New Zealand showed yesterday, it's quite possible for an opposition to win solely because the incumbent Government has become so unpopular and the swing achieved by Luxon isn't far off what the polls are predicting Starmer will get.
    I though the lack of Tactical Voting interesting, though not sure how an MRP shows it.
    We'll see what happens when the election is called - it may be the legacy of the coalition (which ended eight and a half years ago) makes it hard for some Labour inclined to consider voting LD. There's also the truth there aren't that many seats where the LDs are the main challenger compared to the number where Labour is the challenger.

    It's also been historically the case Labour voters are more willing to vote LD than LD voters are to voter Labour.
    The moronic activities of the Libs in Mid Beds won’t help. Hubris, idiocy and arrogance rolled into one.
    Well, we will see on Friday.

    Interesting to see who really is the best challenger in such a Blue Wall seat.
    The answer is: one of them not both of them
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    carnforth said:

    On Poland:

    Ian Dunt
    @IanDunt
    ·
    1h
    Yes, it's an odd feeling isn't it. It's called hope. We haven't had that for some time. If these results come out as projected it'll be a massive moment for liberal democracy in Europe. An absolutely massive moment.

    Would tusk still veto Hungary being thrown out of the EU, like the incumbent would?
    You can’t get thrown out . But your voting rights get suspended. The Slovakia election has changed things as Orban has another mate now .

    Hungary has done very well out of EU membership and now sticks two fingers up . I wish they could be thrown out , they can then go cap in hand to Russia .

  • DavidL said:

    England are getting stepmommed in the semi final.

    The try by Etzebeth reminded me of the one Jonah Lomu scored against England in SA. Just an absolutely absurd display of strength and determination. I have no idea how England can stop him.
    The only way England are stopping him is if they hire a sniper.
    I think there's probably more chance of BJO praising Starmer than England winning.

    For anyone following Poland, you should be aware that there isn't a live vote count, but partial results will be released at say 40 or 50% counted, if the practice of previous elections is followed, which always feels just a bit less transparent.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786

    stodge said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting piece by Mark Pack on how the polls may have got it wrong for Labour.

    https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/what-should-worry-labour-in-the-polls

    Interesting and liked, thank you
    It doesn't tell us anything new to be honest. We know Starmer is not as wildly popular as Blair was in 1995-97. To be fair to Starmer, Blair is a hard act to follow and had there been no Blair (with all the cynicism the period produced), I think Starmer would be much more popular.

    As New Zealand showed yesterday, it's quite possible for an opposition to win solely because the incumbent Government has become so unpopular and the swing achieved by Luxon isn't far off what the polls are predicting Starmer will get.
    I though the lack of Tactical Voting interesting, though not sure how an MRP shows it.
    We'll see what happens when the election is called - it may be the legacy of the coalition (which ended eight and a half years ago) makes it hard for some Labour inclined to consider voting LD. There's also the truth there aren't that many seats where the LDs are the main challenger compared to the number where Labour is the challenger.

    It's also been historically the case Labour voters are more willing to vote LD than LD voters are to voter Labour.
    The moronic activities of the Libs in Mid Beds won’t help. Hubris, idiocy and arrogance rolled into one.
    Sigh. Talk about entitlement. The LDs have every right to fight this, particularly as Labour came very late to the party.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067

    On Poland:

    Ian Dunt
    @IanDunt
    ·
    1h
    Yes, it's an odd feeling isn't it. It's called hope. We haven't had that for some time. If these results come out as projected it'll be a massive moment for liberal democracy in Europe. An absolutely massive moment.

    Turnout was under 61% four years ago; today around 73%. A record by some distance.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    edited October 2023

    Six tries in 30 mins, I need a cigarette as I cannot cope.

    Don't, it's so bad for you.
    I know, it's why I smoke cigars.
    Last time I smoke a cougar I woke up feeling like a hamster had expired in my mouth
    “Smoke a Cougar”? I think I’ve seen that film:
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    dixiedean said:

    AlistairM said:

    England represent Northern Hemisphere rugby in the semis.....

    Would anyone have predicted that 3 months ago?
    Given that there draw was made nearly 3 years ago. Yes.
    I've been predicting England to make the semis for a few years.
    I've also been predicting a final between the two semi finalists from the top half for a couple of years.
    They should do the draw much nearer the time . The seedings were ridiculous.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    edited October 2023
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    France will win this, red card or not, they are too good. But the Boks are brilliant

    England will, ahem, struggle a tad against France

    I can't see France losing to NZ at home, not in a final in fervent Paris

    Ireland might have given them a game, but the ABs it is, yet the ABs are not a vintage AB side and they got a bit lucky against an Irish machine on the blink

    Bur what a series of quarter finals!

    Weirdly I reckon SA will win despite France having a points and man advantage
    Called it!
    Well done

    Tho to be honest i don't think any of us had a clue about probably...

    THE FOUR GREATEST QUARTER FINALS EVER PLAYED IN RUGBY

    Every single one went to the line. Monumental. Rugby graduated as a sport, here. Nothing is like this
    Rugby is fun, but it's not a sniff on The Ashes.
    The difference between rugby and test cricket, for me, is this: There is no sport I would rather watch than England playing test cricket. But as a neutral, thereis no sport I would rather watch than rugby.
    Agreed, but it has to be high level, high stakes international rugby

    Anything lower level can be dire, TBH

    Football for me remains the supreme game, overall - nothing can feasibly beat the Argentine France Final, surely

    But for pulsating intensity - top level rugger, and for aesthetic, exquisite pleasure - cricket
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,243
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    SNP delegates have backed Humza Yousaf's plan to use the next general election result to push for a second independence referendum.

    An amended version of the strategy was voted through overwhelmingly at the party's annual conference in Aberdeen.

    It is based on winning a majority of Scottish seats, at least 29.

    This would provide a mandate to for another referendum, according to the proposals.

    Under the agreed strategy, if the SNP win the majority of seats in Scotland in the next general election, it will demand the powers to hold a referendum are transferred to the Scottish Parliament.

    Alternatively, the strategy said the party should consider using the 2026 Scottish Parliament election as a de facto referendum.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-67116489

    So the idea is they could lose a bunch of MPs and use that as a mandate for another independence referendum. Hmm. Run that past me again. Humza.
    If they have a majority that's it. It was good enough for Mrs Thatcher, remember.
    Holyrood wasn't even created when Thatcher was PM and she is no longer even alive.

    Instead as the UK SC confirmed if Unionists have a majority across the UK, then Westminster can block an indyref2 indefinitely
    You keep adducing Henry VIII and Charles I as the models for modern politics. So, I don't think you have any argument at all.
    With Charles I, his ideas were dodgy but his execution was unique.
    The most interesting thing about King Charles the First is that he was five foot six inches tall at the start of his reign, but only four foot eight inches tall at the end of it
  • Six tries in 30 mins, I need a cigarette as I cannot cope.

    Don't, it's so bad for you.
    I know, it's why I smoke cigars.
    Last time I smoke a cougar I woke up feeling like a hamster had expired in my mouth
    Is smoking a cougar some kind of a stepmom thing?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    edited October 2023
    kjh said:

    stodge said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting piece by Mark Pack on how the polls may have got it wrong for Labour.

    https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/what-should-worry-labour-in-the-polls

    Interesting and liked, thank you
    It doesn't tell us anything new to be honest. We know Starmer is not as wildly popular as Blair was in 1995-97. To be fair to Starmer, Blair is a hard act to follow and had there been no Blair (with all the cynicism the period produced), I think Starmer would be much more popular.

    As New Zealand showed yesterday, it's quite possible for an opposition to win solely because the incumbent Government has become so unpopular and the swing achieved by Luxon isn't far off what the polls are predicting Starmer will get.
    I though the lack of Tactical Voting interesting, though not sure how an MRP shows it.
    We'll see what happens when the election is called - it may be the legacy of the coalition (which ended eight and a half years ago) makes it hard for some Labour inclined to consider voting LD. There's also the truth there aren't that many seats where the LDs are the main challenger compared to the number where Labour is the challenger.

    It's also been historically the case Labour voters are more willing to vote LD than LD voters are to voter Labour.
    The moronic activities of the Libs in Mid Beds won’t help. Hubris, idiocy and arrogance rolled into one.
    Sigh. Talk about entitlement. The LDs have every right to fight this, particularly as Labour came very late to the party.
    This was never going to be a LibDem seat. He’s right that they ought to have known them standing would boost the Tories.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,632

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting piece by Mark Pack on how the polls may have got it wrong for Labour.

    https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/what-should-worry-labour-in-the-polls

    Interesting and liked, thank you
    It doesn't tell us anything new to be honest. We know Starmer is not as wildly popular as Blair was in 1995-97. To be fair to Starmer, Blair is a hard act to follow and had there been no Blair (with all the cynicism the period produced), I think Starmer would be much more popular.

    As New Zealand showed yesterday, it's quite possible for an opposition to win solely because the incumbent Government has become so unpopular and the swing achieved by Luxon isn't far off what the polls are predicting Starmer will get.
    I though the lack of Tactical Voting interesting, though not sure how an MRP shows it.
    We'll see what happens when the election is called - it may be the legacy of the coalition (which ended eight and a half years ago) makes it hard for some Labour inclined to consider voting LD. There's also the truth there aren't that many seats where the LDs are the main challenger compared to the number where Labour is the challenger.

    It's also been historically the case Labour voters are more willing to vote LD than LD voters are to voter Labour.
    The moronic activities of the Libs in Mid Beds won’t help. Hubris, idiocy and arrogance rolled into one.
    Well, we will see on Friday.

    Interesting to see who really is the best challenger in such a Blue Wall seat.
    The answer is: one of them not both of them
    Or possibly Con in 3rd place.

    Now that would be funny.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    kle4 said:

    stodge said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting piece by Mark Pack on how the polls may have got it wrong for Labour.

    https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/what-should-worry-labour-in-the-polls

    Interesting and liked, thank you
    It doesn't tell us anything new to be honest. We know Starmer is not as wildly popular as Blair was in 1995-97. To be fair to Starmer, Blair is a hard act to follow and had there been no Blair (with all the cynicism the period produced), I think Starmer would be much more popular.

    As New Zealand showed yesterday, it's quite possible for an opposition to win solely because the incumbent Government has become so unpopular and the swing achieved by Luxon isn't far off what the polls are predicting Starmer will get.
    I though the lack of Tactical Voting interesting, though not sure how an MRP shows it.
    We'll see what happens when the election is called - it may be the legacy of the coalition (which ended eight and a half years ago) makes it hard for some Labour inclined to consider voting LD. There's also the truth there aren't that many seats where the LDs are the main challenger compared to the number where Labour is the challenger.

    It's also been historically the case Labour voters are more willing to vote LD than LD voters are to voter Labour.
    The moronic activities of the Libs in Mid Beds won’t help. Hubris, idiocy and arrogance rolled into one.
    You seem to be really angered by the LDs in Mid Beds, and I still cannot really see why. It isn't the job of Labour or the LDs to work together to beat the Tories, even if it would make getting the Tories out a lot easier. Neither is entitled to the votes of the other, or to stand down for the other. That would be truly arrogant.

    The Tories potentially clinging on in a by-election in a seat which should never be under threat in the first place is not exactly going to change the political narrative much. I mean, it was in the top 10% safest seats for the Tories.
    So what? Labour conceded Somerton to the Liberals (and lost its deposit) because it’s interested chiefly in hammering its opponent. The Liberals seem to think they have a god-given right to fight and win every byelection. First past the post just doesn’t work like that. You split the vote, you hand a win to the Tories. You might not like the system, but that is the system, suck it up.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    kjh said:

    stodge said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting piece by Mark Pack on how the polls may have got it wrong for Labour.

    https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/what-should-worry-labour-in-the-polls

    Interesting and liked, thank you
    It doesn't tell us anything new to be honest. We know Starmer is not as wildly popular as Blair was in 1995-97. To be fair to Starmer, Blair is a hard act to follow and had there been no Blair (with all the cynicism the period produced), I think Starmer would be much more popular.

    As New Zealand showed yesterday, it's quite possible for an opposition to win solely because the incumbent Government has become so unpopular and the swing achieved by Luxon isn't far off what the polls are predicting Starmer will get.
    I though the lack of Tactical Voting interesting, though not sure how an MRP shows it.
    We'll see what happens when the election is called - it may be the legacy of the coalition (which ended eight and a half years ago) makes it hard for some Labour inclined to consider voting LD. There's also the truth there aren't that many seats where the LDs are the main challenger compared to the number where Labour is the challenger.

    It's also been historically the case Labour voters are more willing to vote LD than LD voters are to voter Labour.
    The moronic activities of the Libs in Mid Beds won’t help. Hubris, idiocy and arrogance rolled into one.
    Sigh. Talk about entitlement. The LDs have every right to fight this, particularly as Labour came very late to the party.
    No. It’s a hubristic move that will backfire. I’m green on the Tories and confident I’ll be collecting my winnings.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting piece by Mark Pack on how the polls may have got it wrong for Labour.

    https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/what-should-worry-labour-in-the-polls

    Interesting and liked, thank you
    It doesn't tell us anything new to be honest. We know Starmer is not as wildly popular as Blair was in 1995-97. To be fair to Starmer, Blair is a hard act to follow and had there been no Blair (with all the cynicism the period produced), I think Starmer would be much more popular.

    As New Zealand showed yesterday, it's quite possible for an opposition to win solely because the incumbent Government has become so unpopular and the swing achieved by Luxon isn't far off what the polls are predicting Starmer will get.
    I though the lack of Tactical Voting interesting, though not sure how an MRP shows it.
    We'll see what happens when the election is called - it may be the legacy of the coalition (which ended eight and a half years ago) makes it hard for some Labour inclined to consider voting LD. There's also the truth there aren't that many seats where the LDs are the main challenger compared to the number where Labour is the challenger.

    It's also been historically the case Labour voters are more willing to vote LD than LD voters are to voter Labour.
    The moronic activities of the Libs in Mid Beds won’t help. Hubris, idiocy and arrogance rolled into one.
    Well, we will see on Friday.

    Interesting to see who really is the best challenger in such a Blue Wall seat.
    The answer is: one of them not both of them
    Or possibly Con in 3rd place.

    Now that would be funny.
    Ain’t going to happen.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    biggles said:

    kjh said:

    stodge said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting piece by Mark Pack on how the polls may have got it wrong for Labour.

    https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/what-should-worry-labour-in-the-polls

    Interesting and liked, thank you
    It doesn't tell us anything new to be honest. We know Starmer is not as wildly popular as Blair was in 1995-97. To be fair to Starmer, Blair is a hard act to follow and had there been no Blair (with all the cynicism the period produced), I think Starmer would be much more popular.

    As New Zealand showed yesterday, it's quite possible for an opposition to win solely because the incumbent Government has become so unpopular and the swing achieved by Luxon isn't far off what the polls are predicting Starmer will get.
    I though the lack of Tactical Voting interesting, though not sure how an MRP shows it.
    We'll see what happens when the election is called - it may be the legacy of the coalition (which ended eight and a half years ago) makes it hard for some Labour inclined to consider voting LD. There's also the truth there aren't that many seats where the LDs are the main challenger compared to the number where Labour is the challenger.

    It's also been historically the case Labour voters are more willing to vote LD than LD voters are to voter Labour.
    The moronic activities of the Libs in Mid Beds won’t help. Hubris, idiocy and arrogance rolled into one.
    Sigh. Talk about entitlement. The LDs have every right to fight this, particularly as Labour came very late to the party.
    This was never going to be a LibDem seat. He’s right that they ought to have known them standing would boost the Tories.
    Yep. It’s more of the Liberal denial that we fight elections under FPP: they might not like the system, but that IS the system, so they should learn how to play the game.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051

    kjh said:

    stodge said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting piece by Mark Pack on how the polls may have got it wrong for Labour.

    https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/what-should-worry-labour-in-the-polls

    Interesting and liked, thank you
    It doesn't tell us anything new to be honest. We know Starmer is not as wildly popular as Blair was in 1995-97. To be fair to Starmer, Blair is a hard act to follow and had there been no Blair (with all the cynicism the period produced), I think Starmer would be much more popular.

    As New Zealand showed yesterday, it's quite possible for an opposition to win solely because the incumbent Government has become so unpopular and the swing achieved by Luxon isn't far off what the polls are predicting Starmer will get.
    I though the lack of Tactical Voting interesting, though not sure how an MRP shows it.
    We'll see what happens when the election is called - it may be the legacy of the coalition (which ended eight and a half years ago) makes it hard for some Labour inclined to consider voting LD. There's also the truth there aren't that many seats where the LDs are the main challenger compared to the number where Labour is the challenger.

    It's also been historically the case Labour voters are more willing to vote LD than LD voters are to voter Labour.
    The moronic activities of the Libs in Mid Beds won’t help. Hubris, idiocy and arrogance rolled into one.
    Sigh. Talk about entitlement. The LDs have every right to fight this, particularly as Labour came very late to the party.
    No. It’s a hubristic move that will backfire. I’m green on the Tories and confident I’ll be collecting my winnings.
    I still think you may see a Labour win to cheer you up, but it will be tight and depends on Tory losses to the independent and Tories sitting on their hands. The Libs could have enabled a Labour win, and reinforced a “fag end Gvt” narrative, indirectly helping them elsewhere.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    edited October 2023
    nico679 said:

    dixiedean said:

    AlistairM said:

    England represent Northern Hemisphere rugby in the semis.....

    Would anyone have predicted that 3 months ago?
    Given that there draw was made nearly 3 years ago. Yes.
    I've been predicting England to make the semis for a few years.
    I've also been predicting a final between the two semi finalists from the top half for a couple of years.
    They should do the draw much nearer the time . The seedings were ridiculous.
    Not entirely sure why it is like this?
    The football world cup seems to manage with only a few months.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,543
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting piece by Mark Pack on how the polls may have got it wrong for Labour.

    https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/what-should-worry-labour-in-the-polls

    Interesting and liked, thank you
    It doesn't tell us anything new to be honest. We know Starmer is not as wildly popular as Blair was in 1995-97. To be fair to Starmer, Blair is a hard act to follow and had there been no Blair (with all the cynicism the period produced), I think Starmer would be much more popular.

    As New Zealand showed yesterday, it's quite possible for an opposition to win solely because the incumbent Government has become so unpopular and the swing achieved by Luxon isn't far off what the polls are predicting Starmer will get.
    I though the lack of Tactical Voting interesting, though not sure how an MRP shows it.
    We'll see what happens when the election is called - it may be the legacy of the coalition (which ended eight and a half years ago) makes it hard for some Labour inclined to consider voting LD. There's also the truth there aren't that many seats where the LDs are the main challenger compared to the number where Labour is the challenger.

    It's also been historically the case Labour voters are more willing to vote LD than LD voters are to voter Labour.
    The moronic activities of the Libs in Mid Beds won’t help. Hubris, idiocy and arrogance rolled into one.
    Well, we will see on Friday.

    Interesting to see who really is the best challenger in such a Blue Wall seat.
    The answer is: one of them not both of them
    Or possibly Con in 3rd place.

    Now that would be funny.
    Delivered libdem leaflets in Cranfield this morning. Leaflet was attacking Labour and Conservatives on local decision making on housing. Indicative of a three way battle rather than a 2 horse race.

    Cranfield is a mixture of new developments and traditional homes just outside Milton Keynes. Friendly reception from the locals cutting the grass etc.

    Some Labour and Lib Dem posters.

    Libdem HQ was buzzing.

    No idea who will win.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    BETTING ADVICE

    At the beginning of this tournament I said England are a good bet, at the then-odds of 18/1. Why? Because - despite iffycoaching - they have grand depths of talent, a lucky draw, and a history of overperforming in World Cups

    I was right. They are now something between 8/1 and 12/1 and in the semis

    I reckon they are still, marginally, VALUE if you can get 12/1. That's a generous price. This is the semis. England have plenty of great players, from Smith to Arundell, they have grizzled vets who have been in other World Cup finals, like Owen Farrell, They have a solid pack and they can turn on the style if needed

    They might spring a surprise on a superior but slightly tired Boks team and make the final, and then who knows
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    I think SA are going to upset the hosts tonight.

    Ahem. You heard it here first.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,243

    Six tries in 30 mins, I need a cigarette as I cannot cope.

    Don't, it's so bad for you.
    I know, it's why I smoke cigars.
    Last time I smoke a cougar I woke up feeling like a hamster had expired in my mouth
    Is smoking a cougar some kind of a stepmom thing?
    It was meant to be a “cigar”… darn autocorrect.

    Although the phrase does have boundless possibility…
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    biggles said:

    kjh said:

    stodge said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting piece by Mark Pack on how the polls may have got it wrong for Labour.

    https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/what-should-worry-labour-in-the-polls

    Interesting and liked, thank you
    It doesn't tell us anything new to be honest. We know Starmer is not as wildly popular as Blair was in 1995-97. To be fair to Starmer, Blair is a hard act to follow and had there been no Blair (with all the cynicism the period produced), I think Starmer would be much more popular.

    As New Zealand showed yesterday, it's quite possible for an opposition to win solely because the incumbent Government has become so unpopular and the swing achieved by Luxon isn't far off what the polls are predicting Starmer will get.
    I though the lack of Tactical Voting interesting, though not sure how an MRP shows it.
    We'll see what happens when the election is called - it may be the legacy of the coalition (which ended eight and a half years ago) makes it hard for some Labour inclined to consider voting LD. There's also the truth there aren't that many seats where the LDs are the main challenger compared to the number where Labour is the challenger.

    It's also been historically the case Labour voters are more willing to vote LD than LD voters are to voter Labour.
    The moronic activities of the Libs in Mid Beds won’t help. Hubris, idiocy and arrogance rolled into one.
    Sigh. Talk about entitlement. The LDs have every right to fight this, particularly as Labour came very late to the party.
    No. It’s a hubristic move that will backfire. I’m green on the Tories and confident I’ll be collecting my winnings.
    I still think you may see a Labour win to cheer you up, but it will be tight and depends on Tory losses to the independent and Tories sitting on their hands. The Libs could have enabled a Labour win, and reinforced a “fag end Gvt” narrative, indirectly helping them elsewhere.
    Yes, that’s it. They don’t seem to see the big picture. At least Labour and the Tories play to win. One sometimes feels the Libs think it’s all about taking part.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    BBC football headline.
    "Everton beat Liverpool to maintain Derby dominance."
    Yes indeedy. Blokes shouldn't play football.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting piece by Mark Pack on how the polls may have got it wrong for Labour.

    https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/what-should-worry-labour-in-the-polls

    Interesting and liked, thank you
    It doesn't tell us anything new to be honest. We know Starmer is not as wildly popular as Blair was in 1995-97. To be fair to Starmer, Blair is a hard act to follow and had there been no Blair (with all the cynicism the period produced), I think Starmer would be much more popular.

    As New Zealand showed yesterday, it's quite possible for an opposition to win solely because the incumbent Government has become so unpopular and the swing achieved by Luxon isn't far off what the polls are predicting Starmer will get.
    I though the lack of Tactical Voting interesting, though not sure how an MRP shows it.
    We'll see what happens when the election is called - it may be the legacy of the coalition (which ended eight and a half years ago) makes it hard for some Labour inclined to consider voting LD. There's also the truth there aren't that many seats where the LDs are the main challenger compared to the number where Labour is the challenger.

    It's also been historically the case Labour voters are more willing to vote LD than LD voters are to voter Labour.
    The moronic activities of the Libs in Mid Beds won’t help. Hubris, idiocy and arrogance rolled into one.
    Well, we will see on Friday.

    Interesting to see who really is the best challenger in such a Blue Wall seat.
    The answer is: one of them not both of them
    Or possibly Con in 3rd place.

    Now that would be funny.
    Delivered libdem leaflets in Cranfield this morning. Leaflet was attacking Labour and Conservatives on local decision making on housing. Indicative of a three way battle rather than a 2 horse race.

    Cranfield is a mixture of new developments and traditional homes just outside Milton Keynes. Friendly reception from the locals cutting the grass etc.

    Some Labour and Lib Dem posters.

    Libdem HQ was buzzing.

    No idea who will win.
    I hope for the LibDem’s sake you didn’t refer to it as “just outside MK” to any of the locals….
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    edited October 2023

    kle4 said:

    stodge said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting piece by Mark Pack on how the polls may have got it wrong for Labour.

    https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/what-should-worry-labour-in-the-polls

    Interesting and liked, thank you
    It doesn't tell us anything new to be honest. We know Starmer is not as wildly popular as Blair was in 1995-97. To be fair to Starmer, Blair is a hard act to follow and had there been no Blair (with all the cynicism the period produced), I think Starmer would be much more popular.

    As New Zealand showed yesterday, it's quite possible for an opposition to win solely because the incumbent Government has become so unpopular and the swing achieved by Luxon isn't far off what the polls are predicting Starmer will get.
    I though the lack of Tactical Voting interesting, though not sure how an MRP shows it.
    We'll see what happens when the election is called - it may be the legacy of the coalition (which ended eight and a half years ago) makes it hard for some Labour inclined to consider voting LD. There's also the truth there aren't that many seats where the LDs are the main challenger compared to the number where Labour is the challenger.

    It's also been historically the case Labour voters are more willing to vote LD than LD voters are to voter Labour.
    The moronic activities of the Libs in Mid Beds won’t help. Hubris, idiocy and arrogance rolled into one.
    You seem to be really angered by the LDs in Mid Beds, and I still cannot really see why. It isn't the job of Labour or the LDs to work together to beat the Tories, even if it would make getting the Tories out a lot easier. Neither is entitled to the votes of the other, or to stand down for the other. That would be truly arrogant.

    The Tories potentially clinging on in a by-election in a seat which should never be under threat in the first place is not exactly going to change the political narrative much. I mean, it was in the top 10% safest seats for the Tories.
    So what? Labour conceded Somerton to the Liberals (and lost its deposit) because it’s interested chiefly in hammering its opponent. The Liberals seem to think they have a god-given right to fight and win every byelection. First past the post just doesn’t work like that. You split the vote, you hand a win to the Tories. You might not like the system, but that is the system, suck it up.
    What did the LDs do to upset you, offer to pay you in this for your work?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxhide_ingot#/media/File:Oxhide_ingots_at_the_Numismatic_Museum,_Athens.jpg

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,710
    Leon said:

    BETTING ADVICE

    At the beginning of this tournament I said England are a good bet, at the then-odds of 18/1. Why? Because - despite iffycoaching - they have grand depths of talent, a lucky draw, and a history of overperforming in World Cups

    I was right. They are now something between 8/1 and 12/1 and in the semis

    I reckon they are still, marginally, VALUE if you can get 12/1. That's a generous price. This is the semis. England have plenty of great players, from Smith to Arundell, they have grizzled vets who have been in other World Cup finals, like Owen Farrell, They have a solid pack and they can turn on the style if needed

    They might spring a surprise on a superior but slightly tired Boks team and make the final, and then who knows

    F*ck it. I'm putting the price of a pint down on BF at 15.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,710

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting piece by Mark Pack on how the polls may have got it wrong for Labour.

    https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/what-should-worry-labour-in-the-polls

    Interesting and liked, thank you
    It doesn't tell us anything new to be honest. We know Starmer is not as wildly popular as Blair was in 1995-97. To be fair to Starmer, Blair is a hard act to follow and had there been no Blair (with all the cynicism the period produced), I think Starmer would be much more popular.

    As New Zealand showed yesterday, it's quite possible for an opposition to win solely because the incumbent Government has become so unpopular and the swing achieved by Luxon isn't far off what the polls are predicting Starmer will get.
    I though the lack of Tactical Voting interesting, though not sure how an MRP shows it.
    We'll see what happens when the election is called - it may be the legacy of the coalition (which ended eight and a half years ago) makes it hard for some Labour inclined to consider voting LD. There's also the truth there aren't that many seats where the LDs are the main challenger compared to the number where Labour is the challenger.

    It's also been historically the case Labour voters are more willing to vote LD than LD voters are to voter Labour.
    The moronic activities of the Libs in Mid Beds won’t help. Hubris, idiocy and arrogance rolled into one.
    Well, we will see on Friday.

    Interesting to see who really is the best challenger in such a Blue Wall seat.
    The answer is: one of them not both of them
    Or possibly Con in 3rd place.

    Now that would be funny.
    Delivered libdem leaflets in Cranfield this morning. Leaflet was attacking Labour and Conservatives on local decision making on housing. Indicative of a three way battle rather than a 2 horse race.

    Cranfield is a mixture of new developments and traditional homes just outside Milton Keynes. Friendly reception from the locals cutting the grass etc.

    Some Labour and Lib Dem posters.

    Libdem HQ was buzzing.

    No idea who will win.
    Mowing the lawn surely?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    It may be handy if the Tories hold both?
    Will end any complacency.
    Make people get real about pacts and tactical voting.
    And may just encourage more incompetence and corruption as usual.
    Could even bring forward the GE?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting piece by Mark Pack on how the polls may have got it wrong for Labour.

    https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/what-should-worry-labour-in-the-polls

    Interesting and liked, thank you
    It doesn't tell us anything new to be honest. We know Starmer is not as wildly popular as Blair was in 1995-97. To be fair to Starmer, Blair is a hard act to follow and had there been no Blair (with all the cynicism the period produced), I think Starmer would be much more popular.

    As New Zealand showed yesterday, it's quite possible for an opposition to win solely because the incumbent Government has become so unpopular and the swing achieved by Luxon isn't far off what the polls are predicting Starmer will get.
    I though the lack of Tactical Voting interesting, though not sure how an MRP shows it.
    We'll see what happens when the election is called - it may be the legacy of the coalition (which ended eight and a half years ago) makes it hard for some Labour inclined to consider voting LD. There's also the truth there aren't that many seats where the LDs are the main challenger compared to the number where Labour is the challenger.

    It's also been historically the case Labour voters are more willing to vote LD than LD voters are to voter Labour.
    The moronic activities of the Libs in Mid Beds won’t help. Hubris, idiocy and arrogance rolled into one.
    Well, we will see on Friday.

    Interesting to see who really is the best challenger in such a Blue Wall seat.
    The answer is: one of them not both of them
    Or possibly Con in 3rd place.

    Now that would be funny.
    Delivered libdem leaflets in Cranfield this morning. Leaflet was attacking Labour and Conservatives on local decision making on housing. Indicative of a three way battle rather than a 2 horse race.

    Cranfield is a mixture of new developments and traditional homes just outside Milton Keynes. Friendly reception from the locals cutting the grass etc.

    Some Labour and Lib Dem posters.

    Libdem HQ was buzzing.

    No idea who will win.
    Not the Liberals, sorry. Probably the Tories, thanks to your party’s hubris.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    edited October 2023
    Leon said:

    BETTING ADVICE

    At the beginning of this tournament I said England are a good bet, at the then-odds of 18/1. Why? Because - despite iffycoaching - they have grand depths of talent, a lucky draw, and a history of overperforming in World Cups

    I was right. They are now something between 8/1 and 12/1 and in the semis

    I reckon they are still, marginally, VALUE if you can get 12/1. That's a generous price. This is the semis. England have plenty of great players, from Smith to Arundell, they have grizzled vets who have been in other World Cup finals, like Owen Farrell, They have a solid pack and they can turn on the style if needed

    They might spring a surprise on a superior but slightly tired Boks team and make the final, and then who knows

    I reckon you're right.
    I also feel the slightly weaker sides have won all the other quarters. (Not saying they didn't deserve too. Just reckon over a say 7 game series, they probably wouldn't have).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Cashless society is impacting the ability of charities and other groups to raise funds for good causes.

    https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/comment/article-12630377/JEFF-PRESTRIDGE-March-cashless-society-continues.html

    I have had conversations with charity collectors which represented the treatment of diseases I was extremely eager to contribute money to, but could not because I refuse to transfer money online. I even offered to just give them a tenner just for being good people, but they refused to take it. It's bloody annoying.
    Refusing to take cash donations is ridiculous.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    edited October 2023
    dixiedean said:

    It may be handy if the Tories hold both?
    Will end any complacency.
    Make people get real about pacts and tactical voting.
    And may just encourage more incompetence and corruption as usual.
    Could even bring forward the GE?

    Hmm. 5D chess.

    Here’s a better idea: the government are defending a seat. Do whatever it takes to ensure they lose it.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    Andy_JS said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Cashless society is impacting the ability of charities and other groups to raise funds for good causes.

    https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/comment/article-12630377/JEFF-PRESTRIDGE-March-cashless-society-continues.html

    I have had conversations with charity collectors which represented the treatment of diseases I was extremely eager to contribute money to, but could not because I refuse to transfer money online. I even offered to just give them a tenner just for being good people, but they refused to take it. It's bloody annoying.
    Refusing to take cash donations is ridiculous.
    I am always open to it myself, and I am a very worthy cause.
  • biggles said:

    kjh said:

    stodge said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting piece by Mark Pack on how the polls may have got it wrong for Labour.

    https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/what-should-worry-labour-in-the-polls

    Interesting and liked, thank you
    It doesn't tell us anything new to be honest. We know Starmer is not as wildly popular as Blair was in 1995-97. To be fair to Starmer, Blair is a hard act to follow and had there been no Blair (with all the cynicism the period produced), I think Starmer would be much more popular.

    As New Zealand showed yesterday, it's quite possible for an opposition to win solely because the incumbent Government has become so unpopular and the swing achieved by Luxon isn't far off what the polls are predicting Starmer will get.
    I though the lack of Tactical Voting interesting, though not sure how an MRP shows it.
    We'll see what happens when the election is called - it may be the legacy of the coalition (which ended eight and a half years ago) makes it hard for some Labour inclined to consider voting LD. There's also the truth there aren't that many seats where the LDs are the main challenger compared to the number where Labour is the challenger.

    It's also been historically the case Labour voters are more willing to vote LD than LD voters are to voter Labour.
    The moronic activities of the Libs in Mid Beds won’t help. Hubris, idiocy and arrogance rolled into one.
    Sigh. Talk about entitlement. The LDs have every right to fight this, particularly as Labour came very late to the party.
    This was never going to be a LibDem seat. He’s right that they ought to have known them standing would boost the Tories.
    Yep. It’s more of the Liberal denial that we fight elections under FPP: they might not like the system, but that IS the system, so they should learn how to play the game.
    To be fair, both Lab and LibDem have done a decent job of collapsing in the seats where it's obvious what to do (Selby, Tiverton).

    Mid Beds is tricky, because it's less obvious. Is the important thing that the view out of the window is leafy (hence Lib Dem), or does the lack of upmarket remainy graduates, coupled with relative proximity to London, make it Labour by default?

    I'm inclined towards the latter, but I can see why that's a bitter pill for Lib Dems to swallow.

    In terms of the big picture, there are so few Lib-Lab battles that it doesn't really matter. And an irrelevant fight might be helpful; "see, we're not one party after all..."
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    dixiedean said:

    It may be handy if the Tories hold both?
    Will end any complacency.
    Make people get real about pacts and tactical voting.
    And may just encourage more incompetence and corruption as usual.
    Could even bring forward the GE?

    Hmm. 5D chess.

    Here’s a better idea: the government are defending a seat. Do whatever it takes to beat them.
    Oh sure.
    Just saying it needn't be a complete disaster if they don't.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051

    biggles said:

    kjh said:

    stodge said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting piece by Mark Pack on how the polls may have got it wrong for Labour.

    https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/what-should-worry-labour-in-the-polls

    Interesting and liked, thank you
    It doesn't tell us anything new to be honest. We know Starmer is not as wildly popular as Blair was in 1995-97. To be fair to Starmer, Blair is a hard act to follow and had there been no Blair (with all the cynicism the period produced), I think Starmer would be much more popular.

    As New Zealand showed yesterday, it's quite possible for an opposition to win solely because the incumbent Government has become so unpopular and the swing achieved by Luxon isn't far off what the polls are predicting Starmer will get.
    I though the lack of Tactical Voting interesting, though not sure how an MRP shows it.
    We'll see what happens when the election is called - it may be the legacy of the coalition (which ended eight and a half years ago) makes it hard for some Labour inclined to consider voting LD. There's also the truth there aren't that many seats where the LDs are the main challenger compared to the number where Labour is the challenger.

    It's also been historically the case Labour voters are more willing to vote LD than LD voters are to voter Labour.
    The moronic activities of the Libs in Mid Beds won’t help. Hubris, idiocy and arrogance rolled into one.
    Sigh. Talk about entitlement. The LDs have every right to fight this, particularly as Labour came very late to the party.
    This was never going to be a LibDem seat. He’s right that they ought to have known them standing would boost the Tories.
    Yep. It’s more of the Liberal denial that we fight elections under FPP: they might not like the system, but that IS the system, so they should learn how to play the game.
    To be fair, both Lab and LibDem have done a decent job of collapsing in the seats where it's obvious what to do (Selby, Tiverton).

    Mid Beds is tricky, because it's less obvious. Is the important thing that the view out of the window is leafy (hence Lib Dem), or does the lack of upmarket remainy graduates, coupled with relative proximity to London, make it Labour by default?

    I'm inclined towards the latter, but I can see why that's a bitter pill for Lib Dems to swallow.

    In terms of the big picture, there are so few Lib-Lab battles that it doesn't really matter. And an irrelevant fight might be helpful; "see, we're not one party after all..."
    The LibDems could always have looked at the previous elections, the makeup of the council, and the actual demographics?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    edited October 2023
    dixiedean said:

    nico679 said:

    dixiedean said:

    AlistairM said:

    England represent Northern Hemisphere rugby in the semis.....

    Would anyone have predicted that 3 months ago?
    Given that there draw was made nearly 3 years ago. Yes.
    I've been predicting England to make the semis for a few years.
    I've also been predicting a final between the two semi finalists from the top half for a couple of years.
    They should do the draw much nearer the time . The seedings were ridiculous.
    Not entirely sure why it is like this?
    The football world cup seems to manage with only a few months.
    It’s not usually done that way but was messed up by Covid and they didn’t know how long it would last so made seedings based on the nearest time to regular test rugby/previous World Cup performance.

    It could be argued that it wasn’t far off right, if Scotland couldn’t get a win in their group (v Ireland or SA) they weren’t going to challenge in the QFs, or Semis, if Ireland couldn’t beat NZ, second in group to France then what matter seedings, France couldn’t beat SA who came second in group to Ireland and so on.

    Minus Australia the semis follow recent World Cup form and it’s up to teams to keep winning so they don’t get a bum draw like the Wales, England , Ais draw in the WC in England. Play well all the time and you will be seeded.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Andy_JS said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Cashless society is impacting the ability of charities and other groups to raise funds for good causes.

    https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/comment/article-12630377/JEFF-PRESTRIDGE-March-cashless-society-continues.html

    I have had conversations with charity collectors which represented the treatment of diseases I was extremely eager to contribute money to, but could not because I refuse to transfer money online. I even offered to just give them a tenner just for being good people, but they refused to take it. It's bloody annoying.
    Refusing to take cash donations is ridiculous.
    Why? Handling cash is expensive, time consuming and risky. Most people don’t bother with the stuff. Why should businesses/charities accept it? It’s a complete pain in the arse to handle. And pointless. Just use contactless. Easy.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    stodge said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting piece by Mark Pack on how the polls may have got it wrong for Labour.

    https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/what-should-worry-labour-in-the-polls

    Interesting and liked, thank you
    It doesn't tell us anything new to be honest. We know Starmer is not as wildly popular as Blair was in 1995-97. To be fair to Starmer, Blair is a hard act to follow and had there been no Blair (with all the cynicism the period produced), I think Starmer would be much more popular.

    As New Zealand showed yesterday, it's quite possible for an opposition to win solely because the incumbent Government has become so unpopular and the swing achieved by Luxon isn't far off what the polls are predicting Starmer will get.
    In 1996 Labour won the equivalent of the Tamworth constituency with a 14,000 majority with a 22% swing.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ItLTm5RhvmM
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,710
    I see Mail and Express are front paging their beloved Suella yet again.

    They are desperate for her to be leader of the opposition next year.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,783

    Six tries in 30 mins, I need a cigarette as I cannot cope.

    Don't, it's so bad for you.
    I know, it's why I smoke cigars.
    Last time I smoke a cougar I woke up feeling like a hamster had expired in my mouth
    Is smoking a cougar some kind of a stepmom thing?
    DO NOT GOOGLE THIS.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,243
    Andy_JS said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Cashless society is impacting the ability of charities and other groups to raise funds for good causes.

    https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/comment/article-12630377/JEFF-PRESTRIDGE-March-cashless-society-continues.html

    I have had conversations with charity collectors which represented the treatment of diseases I was extremely eager to contribute money to, but could not because I refuse to transfer money online. I even offered to just give them a tenner just for being good people, but they refused to take it. It's bloody annoying.
    Refusing to take cash donations is ridiculous.
    I expect they are chuggers and their employer doesn’t want to have the compliance burden associated with cash

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,624

    I see Mail and Express are front paging their beloved Suella yet again.

    They are desperate for her to be leader of the opposition next year.

    Darmanin in France is one step ahead of her with promises to deport people.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    Almost midnight and people are still trying to vote here in Poland. Huge mobilization, big turnout, some polling stations ran out of ballots and exit polls show an opposition coalition wins. But it's still early....
    https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1713672823472861325
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    edited October 2023

    Six tries in 30 mins, I need a cigarette as I cannot cope.

    Don't, it's so bad for you.
    I know, it's why I smoke cigars.
    Last time I smoke a cougar I woke up feeling like a hamster had expired in my mouth
    The post should be added to the PB.com Hall of Fame.

    Begs the question: when (and why) did a hamster expire in your mouth?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    Remember the old joke about Burkina Faso with nukes ?

    Russia to build nuclear plant to meet Burkina Faso's energy needs
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-67098444
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,940

    Six tries in 30 mins, I need a cigarette as I cannot cope.

    Don't, it's so bad for you.
    I know, it's why I smoke cigars.
    Last time I smoke a cougar I woke up feeling like a hamster had expired in my mouth
    The post should be added to the PB.com Hall of Fame.

    Begs the question: when (and why) did a hamster expire in your mouth?
    There are worse places for a hamster to expire.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Just a thought on the rugby, could the live clock (on/off etc) format work for football? So rather than x minutes added at the end you always know exactly where you are?

    There has been talk of adopting it, as I understand it, with 30 minutes per half. Not sure how far it has got: probably not far. Although the idea has merit.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    Nigelb said:

    Almost midnight and people are still trying to vote here in Poland. Huge mobilization, big turnout, some polling stations ran out of ballots and exit polls show an opposition coalition wins. But it's still early....
    https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1713672823472861325

    Have any actual votes been counted?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786

    kjh said:

    stodge said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting piece by Mark Pack on how the polls may have got it wrong for Labour.

    https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/what-should-worry-labour-in-the-polls

    Interesting and liked, thank you
    It doesn't tell us anything new to be honest. We know Starmer is not as wildly popular as Blair was in 1995-97. To be fair to Starmer, Blair is a hard act to follow and had there been no Blair (with all the cynicism the period produced), I think Starmer would be much more popular.

    As New Zealand showed yesterday, it's quite possible for an opposition to win solely because the incumbent Government has become so unpopular and the swing achieved by Luxon isn't far off what the polls are predicting Starmer will get.
    I though the lack of Tactical Voting interesting, though not sure how an MRP shows it.
    We'll see what happens when the election is called - it may be the legacy of the coalition (which ended eight and a half years ago) makes it hard for some Labour inclined to consider voting LD. There's also the truth there aren't that many seats where the LDs are the main challenger compared to the number where Labour is the challenger.

    It's also been historically the case Labour voters are more willing to vote LD than LD voters are to voter Labour.
    The moronic activities of the Libs in Mid Beds won’t help. Hubris, idiocy and arrogance rolled into one.
    Sigh. Talk about entitlement. The LDs have every right to fight this, particularly as Labour came very late to the party.
    No. It’s a hubristic move that will backfire. I’m green on the Tories and confident I’ll be collecting my winnings.
    Maybe then Labour should have put some effort in at the beginning rather than joining late and just expecting the LDs to hand over all their weeks of effort to Labour. That is the real arrogance.
This discussion has been closed.