Andy Burnham backers please explain yourselves – politicalbetting.com

Wasn't Johnson de facto PCC when he entered Parliament in 2015?

Why do they keep reviewing these obviously too-high lbw shouts?

Daily Mail reports that the Israeli attack has been delayed due to weather. Checking the forecast it looks like rain then storms from this afternoon to twilight Monday. So expect the attack either late Monday evening, or after midnight Tuesday?

Or will they go in at dawn Tuesday for better visibility?

Is that toast I smell burning Or England's world cup?

Burnham is too short but unless you use a sell of him as your base to build a lay book on the market you could be tying up money for ages.

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

DavidL said:

Is that toast I smell burning Or England's world cup?

At least we have the rugby to look forward...ohhhh.....

You might be watching that from behind the sofa....

I fear Marcus Smith at full back might get treated like a sofa by Fiji.

DavidL said:

I think that Burnham being favourite says a lot about the quality of shadow cabinet. There is also the expectation that SKS will win 2 elections and that he will stand down some time in the next Parliament when Burnham may well be back in the Commons.

But there are so many ifs in that I would definitely be laying at these odds.

Yeah, the first bit of it makes sense; if Starmer is going to win, then there won't be another Labour leader until 2030ish or later, barring
accidents. So Burnham needn't be ruled out.

Apart from that, I reckon it's name recognition. But Starmer's successor is likely to be from the next generation- either as a continuation (Reeves?) or a reaction against (flipnose).

Either way, it's a long time to wait, and plenty of time for an unknown to break through. Brown after Blair was visible from space, but who would have predicted Major after Maggie in 1978?

Stuartinromford said:

DavidL said:

I think that Burnham being favourite says a lot about the quality of shadow cabinet. There is also the expectation that SKS will win 2 elections and that he will stand down some time in the next Parliament when Burnham may well be back in the Commons.

But there are so many ifs in that I would definitely be laying at these odds.

Yeah, the first bit of it makes sense; if Starmer is going to win, then there won't be another Labour leader until 2030ish or later, barring
accidents. So Burnham needn't be ruled out.

Apart from that, I reckon it's name recognition. But Starmer's successor is likely to be from the next generation- either as a continuation (Reeves?) or a reaction against (flipnose).

Either way, it's a long time to wait, and plenty of time for an unknown to break through. Brown after Blair was visible from space, but who would have predicted Major after Maggie in 1978?

Major only became an MP in 1979, so I think it is safe to say that in 1978 the only people even contemplating that he would be Thatcheer's successor were John and Norma Major

eristdoof said:

Stuartinromford said:

DavidL said:

I think that Burnham being favourite says a lot about the quality of shadow cabinet. There is also the expectation that SKS will win 2 elections and that he will stand down some time in the next Parliament when Burnham may well be back in the Commons.

But there are so many ifs in that I would definitely be laying at these odds.

Yeah, the first bit of it makes sense; if Starmer is going to win, then there won't be another Labour leader until 2030ish or later, barring
accidents. So Burnham needn't be ruled out.

Apart from that, I reckon it's name recognition. But Starmer's successor is likely to be from the next generation- either as a continuation (Reeves?) or a reaction against (flipnose).

Either way, it's a long time to wait, and plenty of time for an unknown to break through. Brown after Blair was visible from space, but who would have predicted Major after Maggie in 1978?

Major only became an MP in 1979, so I think it is safe to say that in 1978 the only people even contemplating that he would be Thatcheer's successor were John and Norma Major

He wouldn’t have even been in the picture on the eve of the Falklands war, when it looked like a Labour government might be on the cards in 1984 and everyone would have been betting on that basis.

Lay the favourite!

Wes Streeting more likely to be next Labour leader than Burnham

Stuartinromford said:

DavidL said:

I think that Burnham being favourite says a lot about the quality of shadow cabinet. There is also the expectation that SKS will win 2 elections and that he will stand down some time in the next Parliament when Burnham may well be back in the Commons.

But there are so many ifs in that I would definitely be laying at these odds.

Yeah, the first bit of it makes sense; if Starmer is going to win, then there won't be another Labour leader until 2030ish or later, barring
accidents. So Burnham needn't be ruled out.

Except....if minority Labour are heading a rainbow coalition that quickly disintegrates so there is another election within 12 months, Starmer is toast.

Or is it that when Aussies say "78% of votes" counted they mean "78% of all possible votes counted", and 78% is the turnout? Confusing if so

Leon said:

Does anyone have an explanation why the Aussies have simply stopped counting in their Voice Vote?

The completist in me wants to see the final score, and the humiliation of the Woke, but the official tallies have barely budged in 36 hours. Do they simply knock off for the weekend?

I thought the Guardian had simply taken the huff.

Leon said:

Or is it that when Aussies say "78% of votes" counted they mean "78% of all possible votes counted", and 78% is the turnout? Confusing if so

Isn’t voting compulsory in Australia, or is that just for general elections rather than referenda?

DavidL said:

Leon said:

Does anyone have an explanation why the Aussies have simply stopped counting in their Voice Vote?

The completist in me wants to see the final score, and the humiliation of the Woke, but the official tallies have barely budged in 36 hours. Do they simply knock off for the weekend?

I thought the Guardian had simply taken the huff.

No, it's the same on the official government page

https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/ReferendumNationalResults-29581.htm

It hasn't budged much, if at all, in 36 hours, tho it does imply some remoter places - WA and QLD - are still slowly trickling in. Very slowly

https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/ReferendumUpdatedByDivision-29581.htm

FrancisUrquhart said:

Feels like England needs a legendary Stokes innings to get them out of this hole....but he is only carrying the drinks.

There's a flaw in that reasoning...

This is not looking close at the moment.

Next Labour leader will probably be someone like Bridget Phillipson or Shabana Mahmood. Someone who will be in Starmer's initial cabinet but whose career won't peak for another few years yet.

Winviz is broken again....England still favourites.

Sandpit said:

Cricinfo win probability 19/81 in favour of Afghanistan, broadcaster win probability 52/48 in favour of England!

(I assume Betfair is closer to the Cricinfo score)

Tin foil hat on...got to get the punters gambling ;-)

Leon said:

Or is it that when Aussies say "78% of votes" counted they mean "78% of all possible votes counted", and 78% is the turnout? Confusing if so

Postal/military votes etc can be counted for ages after the election from memory. I believe voters need to post by or on election day not to arrive on election day like here.

I remember well the 1996 Federal Election while I lived there, my first election where I followed politics. Labor lost and ex PM Paul Keating resigned and Kim Beazley was expected to become the new leader (indeed he was ultimately elected unopposed). However from memory it took about a week for Beazley's own division (constituency) to be declared.

There was a great deal of uncertainty as to what Labor would do if Beazley lost his seat.

Dura_Ace said:

Carnyx said:

Dura_Ace said:

FPT regarding CSGs...

The Ford (with CVW-8) is in the Eastern Med and the Eisenhower (with CVW-3) has just put out from Oceana, VA and so is weeks away.

Also in the Eastern Med are the Normandy, Hudney, Ramage, Carney and Roosevelt. (Guided Missile Cruiser and 4 x Guided Missile Destroyer).

Shappsie has sent RFA Argus (aviation training/PCR) but asks us all not to be embarrassed at the paucity of the contribution,

No escort for Argus?

GPMG on the starboard rail fitted for but not with ammo.

Ah, thanks. When my dad was on a carrier c. 1945, and on destroyers after that, they always had at least one destroyer trailing along after each carrier to fish out the over-intrepid aviators, and do any other odd jobs up to and including attacking enemy cruisers and subs. But I presume the modern RN assume they'll always have a spare budgie available to do the job, whatever job. [Edit: I do know Argus is (primarily?) helicopters.]

I don't think he would have been doing better, but it's interesting that he is trying, since it was clear from the start tiptoeing around him would not work, and no even does praising him for that matter.

If Desantis had done this earlier he’d be doing much better: “Trump views everything through the lens of him. If you are kissing his rump, then you’re great. If you’re not, then he’s gonna attack you. That’s not leadership. It’s not about you.”
https://nitter.net/RonFilipkowski/status/1713555468222697549#m

Buttler you idiot.

The silver lining of Afghanistan winning is that it will put Australia bottom of the table, which will be very funny.

England obviously want to get this finished before the rugby starts.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Feeling a bit rubbish today but nothing like England's batting

Hope you feel better soon Big_G. There's no hope for England's batting obvs.

theakes said:

Lib Dems in Mid Beds seem very confident, are they deluding themselves or do the really know something?

We have a tendency to think parties behind the scenes have a firmer grasp on what is happening than they may let on publicly. So after a loss we hear about how private data was saying that at the time, or ahead of a win we hear the internal info is looking good.

Truth of the matter is sometimes they get lucky, but there are plenty of times they are surprised, either by outcome or scale of outcome. If they could reliably figure stuff out from their own info there'd be no shocks.

So I'd guess they've had a reasonably decent experience thus far and so are full of belief, that's it.

theakes said:

Lib Dems in Mid Beds seem very confident, are they deluding themselves or do the really know something?

They've certainly found a new type of graph to plot;



But at this stage, what else can they say?

"Naah, we aren't going to win, but vote for us anyway."

Commentator - 'England's start hasn't been great at all.'

No. Shit. Sherlock.

Leon said:

Daily Mail reports that the Israeli attack has been delayed due to weather. Checking the forecast it looks like rain then storms from this afternoon to twilight Monday. So expect the attack either late Monday evening, or after midnight Tuesday?

Or will they go in at dawn Tuesday for better visibility?

It’s an excuse to give more time to the civilians to escape without looking weak.

Don’t think they are being charitable: civilians get in the way of military operations (soldiers don’t like killing unarmed people and children) and the PR is bad. So it’s in Israel’s interest to minimise the number of casualties

StillWaters said:

Leon said:

Daily Mail reports that the Israeli attack has been delayed due to weather. Checking the forecast it looks like rain then storms from this afternoon to twilight Monday. So expect the attack either late Monday evening, or after midnight Tuesday?

Or will they go in at dawn Tuesday for better visibility?

It’s an excuse to give more time to the civilians to escape without looking weak.

Don’t think they are being charitable: civilians get in the way of military operations (soldiers don’t like killing unarmed people and children) and the PR is bad. So it’s in Israel’s interest to minimise the number of casualties

That also occurred to me

OTOH I am certain the Israelis don't want 300,000 troops (and their materiel) sitting in a field north of Gaza for much longer. It is a prime target for any local with a grudge, or an Iranian with a missile. So there is also pressure to get going

theakes said:

Lib Dems in Mid Beds seem very confident, are they deluding themselves or do the really know something?

Lab voters are always more likely to move to the LDs than vice versa.

kle4 said:

Stuartinromford said:

theakes said:

Lib Dems in Mid Beds seem very confident, are they deluding themselves or do the really know something?

They've certainly found a new type of graph to plot;



But at this stage, what else can they say?

"Naah, we aren't going to win, but vote for us anyway."

I know Labour are meant to be anti-car, but I don't see why they couldn't have driven in their candidate from London rather than bringing them in by ship.

Even odder, as there is no canal to Bedford.

Carnyx said:

kle4 said:

Stuartinromford said:

theakes said:

Lib Dems in Mid Beds seem very confident, are they deluding themselves or do the really know something?

They've certainly found a new type of graph to plot;



But at this stage, what else can they say?

"Naah, we aren't going to win, but vote for us anyway."

I know Labour are meant to be anti-car, but I don't see why they couldn't have driven in their candidate from London rather than bringing them in by ship.

Even odder, as there is no canal to Bedford.

So their candidate would be locked out?

Leon said:

Or is it that when Aussies say "78% of votes" counted they mean "78% of all possible votes counted", and 78% is the turnout? Confusing if so

I thought voting was compulsory in Australia.

StillWaters said:

Leon said:

Daily Mail reports that the Israeli attack has been delayed due to weather. Checking the forecast it looks like rain then storms from this afternoon to twilight Monday. So expect the attack either late Monday evening, or after midnight Tuesday?

Or will they go in at dawn Tuesday for better visibility?

It’s an excuse to give more time to the civilians to escape without looking weak.

Don’t think they are being charitable: civilians get in the way of military operations (soldiers don’t like killing unarmed people and children) and the PR is bad. So it’s in Israel’s interest to minimise the number of casualties

Israel’s soldiers hate the idea of civilian casualties. As opposed to the Hamas terrorists, who celebrate them.

Leon said:

Daily Mail reports that the Israeli attack has been delayed due to weather. Checking the forecast it looks like rain then storms from this afternoon to twilight Monday. So expect the attack either late Monday evening, or after midnight Tuesday?

Or will they go in at dawn Tuesday for better visibility?

Must be tough for you, continually keeping one hand free for when it all kicks off.

That's surely out

ydoethur said:

On topic, I assume it's about name recognition as much as anything else. He's the only person who stood in both 2010 and 2015 still active in politics.

Worth remembering he did rather badly both times. Fourth in 2010 and a very poor second to the Jezaster in 2015.

He has as much chance of coming back as England in this match. But most people don't know who the real runners and riders are for next time.

To be fair, I don't either, and my hunch is it will be somebody unexpected.

Puts Sunak's loss to Truss in perspective.

Oh dear.

Why waste a review on that, did Brook at the other end not see that was plumb in front?

IanB2 said:

Leon said:

Daily Mail reports that the Israeli attack has been delayed due to weather. Checking the forecast it looks like rain then storms from this afternoon to twilight Monday. So expect the attack either late Monday evening, or after midnight Tuesday?

Or will they go in at dawn Tuesday for better visibility?

Must be tough for you, continually keeping one hand free for when it all kicks off.

I calm myself down by occasionally reading your comments, which even when brief are so boring they act as a mild form of tranquiliser

England have the same chance of winning this as Susan Acland-Hood has of a lucid moment.

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

Stuartinromford said:

theakes said:

Lib Dems in Mid Beds seem very confident, are they deluding themselves or do the really know something?

They've certainly found a new type of graph to plot;



But at this stage, what else can they say?

"Naah, we aren't going to win, but vote for us anyway."

I know Labour are meant to be anti-car, but I don't see why they couldn't have driven in their candidate from London rather than bringing them in by ship.

There's a rumour Starmer wants to turn HS2 into a land-locked ship canal.

Foolish.

Locks with land in are no use at all.

I haven't been followng this, so are we quite shit at ODIs now?

Ah well, we had a good run

Leon said:

I haven't been followng this, so are we quite shit at ODIs now?

Ah well, we had a good run

No, we're not, hence the shock.

kle4 said:

Leon said:

I haven't been followng this, so are we quite shit at ODIs now?

Ah well, we had a good run

No, we're not, hence the shock.

I don't think the prevailing thought was England were in anywhere the same position as when they won the WC last time. Roy form has gone so having to open with somebody who isn't an opener, Livingstone in terrible form, there is no Archer, Stokes is on one leg, Rashid shoulder is buggered, they never found a replacement for Plunkett, and obviously the genius of Eoin Morgan.

It is a significantly weaker team than last WC.

kle4 said:

Carnyx said:

kle4 said:

Stuartinromford said:

theakes said:

Lib Dems in Mid Beds seem very confident, are they deluding themselves or do the really know something?

They've certainly found a new type of graph to plot;



But at this stage, what else can they say?

"Naah, we aren't going to win, but vote for us anyway."

I know Labour are meant to be anti-car, but I don't see why they couldn't have driven in their candidate from London rather than bringing them in by ship.

Even odder, as there is no canal to Bedford.

Damn infrastructure cuts, so short sighted.

It's in the pipeline, proposed in 1810 apparently, just waiting on HMG's approval.

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

Leon said:

I haven't been followng this, so are we quite shit at ODIs now?

Ah well, we had a good run

No, we're not, hence the shock.

I don't think the prevailing thought was England were in anywhere the same position as when they won the WC last time. Roy form has gone, as has Livingstone, there is no Archer, Stokes is on one leg, Rashid shoulder is buggered, they never found a replacement for Plunkett, and obviously the genius of Eoin Morgan.

It is a significantly weaker team than last WC.

The continuous injuries for Stokes is a particular problem. A world class batsman who can do 10 decent overs and is one of the best fielders ever gives his team massive advantages. The modern Stokes who can hardly bowl and is not as lithe in the field, not nearly so much.

Grr, my local now realises they can’t put cricket and rugby on at the same time, as they’re both on the same weird subscription service and they only have one subscription!