LAB strong favourites to gain Mid-Beds – politicalbetting.com

Tory value? Still wagering nowt on this seat though tbh.

I think Labour will probably win this one but Tamworth to my mind is the kind of seat Labour will underperform in and I reckon they will fall short there.

Hmm, Tamworth was one of the most XL-Bully-loving parts of the UK as shown by that petition.

SKS only has to campaign on saving the cuddly Bully, S, M, L, XL or XXl, doesn't matter, it's sewn up.

(Obvious logic fail there. But he does have a potential wedge issue.)

The country wants revenge on the Tories. I strongly suspect they will lose both by-elex

LOL Pakistan 252/8 with six overs still to go.

Sandpit said:

MarqueeMark said:

Sandpit said:

It’s between Con and Lab, much to the chagrin of the LD by-election machine who thought they could win from a distant 3rd.

The great unknown is how many traditional Tories couldn't bring themselves to vote for Nadine, but might now return to the fold.

Can I trademark “The Uxbridge Effect”, to describe that?

Only if the Tories win the seat!

Chris said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

I think Labour will probably win this one but Tamworth to my mind is the kind of seat Labour will underperform in and I reckon they will fall short there.

I suppose it's a sign of the times that a measure of Labour underperformance would be a swing of less than 21.3%.

Ha yes. It's a reach, and I think Labour will struggle to progress in the Midlands (and Greater London) while doing well in the North, Scotland and the South ex London.

Netherlands have used EIGHT bowlers in this match. Is that a record for the World Cup?

Nice happy clappy piece on The Greens from The Guardian, increasingly a left wing version of the Daily Mail.

They look slightly unhinged in the picture. Makes them perfect for politics.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/greens-head-to-brighton-targeting-four-seats-at-next-election/ar-AA1hLnBD?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=19614aa91fde4c26a97042cb4ca46266&ei=14

Taz said:

Nice happy clappy piece on The Greens from The Guardian, increasingly a left wing version of the Daily Mail.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/greens-head-to-brighton-targeting-four-seats-at-next-election/ar-AA1hLnBD?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=19614aa91fde4c26a97042cb4ca46266&ei=14

That's not the Grauniad.

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Today's national news stories leading with a Labour parliamentary by-election triumph is not going to help the Lib Dems in the "who is best placed to beat the Tories" stakes in Mid Beds.

But is.. is Sir Keir a mason ?

Rauf has probably got Pakistan over the line here.

Rogertrent said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Very good news in the housing market as house prices continue to fall off their obscenely high prices, while wages continue to rise, so the house price/income ratio continues to move in the right direction for once: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67028467

In what is overall a terrible cost of living crisis for many, its good to get some unabashed good news here.

And remarkably the sky hasn't fallen despite all the concerns about 'negative equity' that people used to cry crocodile tears over when saying there needed to be a house price correction.

Hopefully home ownership rates can start to turn around and go in the right direction too with house prices falling again, just like they reached record highs after the correction in the 1990s.

Not just that oil prices are plummeting too so thats good news.

Quite a significant move this week, not sure why that is to be honest.

Not noticed anything in the forecourts yet, but since the movement only started a few days ago hopefully that feeds through too soon. Petrol is far too expensive currently.

Nigelb said:

Foxy said:

Taz said:

Nice happy clappy piece on The Greens from The Guardian, increasingly a left wing version of the Daily Mail.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/greens-head-to-brighton-targeting-four-seats-at-next-election/ar-AA1hLnBD?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=19614aa91fde4c26a97042cb4ca46266&ei=14

That's not the Grauniad.

You and your 'facts'.

Story by Peter Walker Deputy political editor

x.com

Peter Walker
@peterwalker99
Guardian deputy political editor.

PT - I've noticed that the most common phrase from our periodic Putin trolls is "Leon has a point".

Mid Beds, yes Labour. I've done this one nicely. Win on them, flat the others.

If Labour have a decent conference without significant missteps, they win Mid Beds, and there is no sign of Tory poll recovery in the coming weeks I’ll be fully prepared to change my position.

My gut has always been, since the Sunak takeover, that the next general election was likely to result in a small Labour majority or even no majority at all.

But I am starting to move towards the idea that something very cataclysmic is awaiting the Tories, and that we might see an utter trouncing. I mean, even sub 150 seat style trouncing.

The polls are just not moving back to them.

There is just an air of complete hopelessness hovering around the Tory Party at the moment. It feels like people just can’t bring themselves to vote for them. Too much water under the bridge. Too much loss of faith.

Yes, Starmer is no Blair but then Sunak is no Major. People thought the country was badly run in 1996 but it was nothing like what we face now. At what point does the choice simply become that a roll of the dice with a fresh face is worth it?

Sandpit said:

Netherlands have used EIGHT bowlers in this match. Is that a record for the World Cup?

Assorted World Players under a flag of convenience XI, plus Bas De Leede v Pakistan

Rogertrent said:

Us economy still pretty strong too. ISM services was strong. Employment out today.

And Russia continue to get their ass handed to them and Crimea might be liberated soon.

There's a lot to be positive about currently, despite the negativity.

Pakistan all out in 49 overs. 286.

kjh said:

Sandpit said:

It’s between Con and Lab, much to the chagrin of the LD by-election machine who thought they could win from a distant 3rd.

I've not heard anything (that I trust) for sometime, but the LDs certainly aren't giving up. Only yesterday I had another email trying to get me there. There is a competition on this week (not really obviously, but just as a means for boosting attendance) between the LD Eastern, London and South East Regions on who can get the most activists there this weekend.

On the current odds quoted I would back the LDs. Who will win is another matter.

Yes, I think Lib Dem is the value bet here. Not sure they will win but it is the value bet.

BartholomewRoberts said:

Rogertrent said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Very good news in the housing market as house prices continue to fall off their obscenely high prices, while wages continue to rise, so the house price/income ratio continues to move in the right direction for once: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67028467

In what is overall a terrible cost of living crisis for many, its good to get some unabashed good news here.

And remarkably the sky hasn't fallen despite all the concerns about 'negative equity' that people used to cry crocodile tears over when saying there needed to be a house price correction.

Hopefully home ownership rates can start to turn around and go in the right direction too with house prices falling again, just like they reached record highs after the correction in the 1990s.

Not just that oil prices are plummeting too so thats good news.

Quite a significant move this week, not sure why that is to be honest.

Not noticed anything in the forecourts yet, but since the movement only started a few days ago hopefully that feeds through too soon. Petrol is far too expensive currently.

Where do you fill up ? Your commuting mileage isn't dissimilar to mine from what I can work out here..

Your nearest Costco at Saints is 146.9 for standard unleaded. If you're vaguely adjacent to one of the qualifying members criteria it's worth a go to try and get membership.

kinabalu said:

PT - I've noticed that the most common phrase from our periodic Putin trolls is "Leon has a point".

Vlad is just returning the favour after I said he was right about Woke

Sandpit said:

Rule #1 of limited overs cricket, is that you have to use all the overs.

Yeah, but it's only one over - so call it ten runs.

I expect P have enough but pretty good performance from the Dutch bowlers.

DavidL said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Very good news in the housing market as house prices continue to fall off their obscenely high prices, while wages continue to rise, so the house price/income ratio continues to move in the right direction for once: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67028467

In what is overall a terrible cost of living crisis for many, its good to get some unabashed good news here.

And remarkably the sky hasn't fallen despite all the concerns about 'negative equity' that people used to cry crocodile tears over when saying there needed to be a house price correction.

Hopefully home ownership rates can start to turn around and go in the right direction too with house prices falling again, just like they reached record highs after the correction in the 1990s.

My daughter and her partner are looking for a place in Leith. I suggested waiting until the New Year to get better value for money. I still think that was right but they shouldn't wait too long.

Are they renting currently? Because if so, even if they might get something cheaper down the line, the cost of dead money in rent means there's little real difference so to speak. May as well start looking now would be my thought, if they find something they love just get it and if not they can keep looking until the New Year.

We bought at the peak of the market, moving into our property December last year, but despite that the drop in our equity is barely any different to what we'd have paid in rent over that period anyway - and thankfully we have a place of our own which is more important.

BartholomewRoberts said:

Rogertrent said:

Us economy still pretty strong too. ISM services was strong. Employment out today.

And Russia continue to get their ass handed to them and Crimea might be liberated soon.

There's a lot to be positive about currently, despite the negativity.

Why do you think it will be liberated soon ?

Dura_Ace said:

numbertwelve said:

If Labour have a decent conference without significant missteps, they win Mid Beds, and there is no sign of Tory poll recovery in the coming weeks I’ll be fully prepared to change my position.

My gut has always been, since the Sunak takeover, that the next general election was likely to result in a small Labour majority or even no majority at all.

But I am starting to move towards the idea that something very cataclysmic is awaiting the Tories, and that we might see an utter trouncing. I mean, even sub 150 seat style trouncing.

The polls are just not moving back to them.

There is just an air of complete hopelessness hovering around the Tory Party at the moment. It feels like people just can’t bring themselves to vote for them. Too much water under the bridge. Too much loss of faith.

Yes, Starmer is no Blair but then Sunak is no Major. People thought the country was badly run in 1996 but it was nothing like what we face now. At what point does the choice simply become that a roll of the dice with a fresh face is worth it?

From a tory perspective, it's starting to be apparent that Sunak is part of the problem, not part of the solution.

What's less apparent is whether there is a solution for the Tories.

BartholomewRoberts said:

DavidL said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Very good news in the housing market as house prices continue to fall off their obscenely high prices, while wages continue to rise, so the house price/income ratio continues to move in the right direction for once: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67028467

In what is overall a terrible cost of living crisis for many, its good to get some unabashed good news here.

And remarkably the sky hasn't fallen despite all the concerns about 'negative equity' that people used to cry crocodile tears over when saying there needed to be a house price correction.

Hopefully home ownership rates can start to turn around and go in the right direction too with house prices falling again, just like they reached record highs after the correction in the 1990s.

My daughter and her partner are looking for a place in Leith. I suggested waiting until the New Year to get better value for money. I still think that was right but they shouldn't wait too long.

Are they renting currently? Because if so, even if they might get something cheaper down the line, the cost of dead money in rent means there's little real difference so to speak. May as well start looking now would be my thought, if they find something they love just get it and if not they can keep looking until the New Year.

We bought at the peak of the market, moving into our property December last year, but despite that the drop in our equity is barely any different to what we'd have paid in rent over that period anyway - and thankfully we have a place of our own which is more important.

With typical mortage and savings rates at 5-6% that won't be typical.

Cost of borrowing and lost interest on savings > or similar to average rental yield.

Rogertrent said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Rogertrent said:

Us economy still pretty strong too. ISM services was strong. Employment out today.

And Russia continue to get their ass handed to them and Crimea might be liberated soon.

There's a lot to be positive about currently, despite the negativity.

Crimea might be liberated soon. What are you smoking. This is the sort of stuff Elon Musk is tweeting now.

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1708629197617336398?s=20

The Ukranian liberation of Crimea is going to be the standout world political event of next year.

Just imagine how awful that is going to be for those defending Tokmak and the Kerch Bridge, knowing that they’re the last holdouts against the inevitable, and suffering daily losses of men and vehicles to do so?

Carnyx said:

Hmm, Tamworth was one of the most XL-Bully-loving parts of the UK as shown by that petition.

SKS only has to campaign on saving the cuddly Bully, S, M, L, XL or XXl, doesn't matter, it's sewn up.

(Obvious logic fail there. But he does have a potential wedge issue.)

What petition?

numbertwelve said:

If Labour have a decent conference without significant missteps, they win Mid Beds, and there is no sign of Tory poll recovery in the coming weeks I’ll be fully prepared to change my position.

My gut has always been, since the Sunak takeover, that the next general election was likely to result in a small Labour majority or even no majority at all.

But I am starting to move towards the idea that something very cataclysmic is awaiting the Tories, and that we might see an utter trouncing. I mean, even sub 150 seat style trouncing.

The polls are just not moving back to them.

There is just an air of complete hopelessness hovering around the Tory Party at the moment. It feels like people just can’t bring themselves to vote for them. Too much water under the bridge. Too much loss of faith.

Yes, Starmer is no Blair but then Sunak is no Major. People thought the country was badly run in 1996 but it was nothing like what we face now. At what point does the choice simply become that a roll of the dice with a fresh face is worth it?

Indeed.

Some of you will have missed my earlier anecdote, which I offer in sincerity.

My lifelong tory voter friend in Surrey told me this week that for the first time in her life she will not be voting Conservative at the next General Election. She has literally voted Conservative for the last three decades, including 1997, 2001 etc. She cited the latest Suella Braverman outburst as the final straw.

When even your lifelong voters are giving up, you've had it.

It's that bad.

I was a bit surprised by the comment that Labour doesn't usually do well with graduates. Is there a link for that? My impression was that we are doing much better with graduates than with DE voters, because of differential turnout.

Heathener said:

Taz said:

kjh said:

Sandpit said:

It’s between Con and Lab, much to the chagrin of the LD by-election machine who thought they could win from a distant 3rd.

I've not heard anything (that I trust) for sometime, but the LDs certainly aren't giving up. Only yesterday I had another email trying to get me there. There is a competition on this week (not really obviously, but just as a means for boosting attendance) between the LD Eastern, London and South East Regions on who can get the most activists there this weekend.

On the current odds quoted I would back the LDs. Who will win is another matter.

Yes, I think Lib Dem is the value bet here. Not sure they will win but it is the value bet.

The 'value bet' meme always makes me smile.

Some of you bet far more than I, and many of you are statisticians in a way that I am not. However, I do tend to make money on political betting and haven't lost for some years. I think @BartholomewRoberts would criticise that approach as 'gambling' is part of the point if a bet is "value."

However, I think it's worth pointing out that if something is 100/1 against it does not mean that one time in one hundred you are going to win. There is no law of averages and if you continue betting then each time you bet you are still only betting at 100/1 odds.

Of course, canny betting is mostly about using your head and spotting something that the betting market doesn't. A great example was Mike's tip on Chesham & Amersham which was based on inside knowledge.

There is no such insight this time and I suspect the reason LibDem odds this morning are drifting even further is that the betting markets have this right: a Labour win.

No need to be snide. It does not become you.

You talk of inside knowledge, thanks to your commentary I made money on the Woking locals last year.

I also backed the Lib Dems in Chesham and TIverton, I have losers too, I thought labour would hold on in Hartlepool

I think the market has moved thanks to Rutherglen. The Lib Dems are formidable campaigners. I see little value in Labour here.

Andy_JS said:

"A mother-of-three has been left fearing for her children's safety after a violent XL Bully-type dog got into her garden and killed the family's beloved pet cat – in violent scenes caught on CCTV.

Nima Begum, 40, was in her house when she heard a commotion outside and saw a man wrestling with the powerful animal.

He kept shouting 'Your cat is fine', even though his pet's jaws were covered in blood.

Ms Begum rushed outside and found her terrified cat Kiwi cowering in a tree, which she managed to get down with the help of a passer-by. But the tabby died before she could get her to a vet."

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12601837/horrifying-moment-XL-Bully-savagely-mauls-familys-cat-death.html

This is driving me nuts. How much longer is the government going to wait? Get a fucking move on. Just order immediate muzzling NOW. The whole country wants it. Only 10% oppose

While they dither the attacks will continue and soon enough we will be faced with an utterly hideous video of a tiny child being eaten alive

Muzzle these fuckers. Give the owners a slapping

Taz said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Rogertrent said:

Us economy still pretty strong too. ISM services was strong. Employment out today.

And Russia continue to get their ass handed to them and Crimea might be liberated soon.

There's a lot to be positive about currently, despite the negativity.

Why do you think it will be liberated soon ?

Because Ukraine are winning a multi-pronged conflict.

They're breaking through the Russian defences around Verbove and close to cutting off the land bridge to Crimea.

They're getting good at disabling/interrupting the Kerch bridge connection.

And they're good at using drones and missiles to hit Crimea and make Sevastopol unusable for Russia's fleet.

If Russia can't keep a fleet at Sevastopol, if they can't get reinforcements or support there, then this entire conflict was pointless.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/10/05/russian-warships-leave-annexed-crimea-amid-growing-missile-threats-reports-a82668

BartholomewRoberts said:

Taz said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Rogertrent said:

Us economy still pretty strong too. ISM services was strong. Employment out today.

And Russia continue to get their ass handed to them and Crimea might be liberated soon.

There's a lot to be positive about currently, despite the negativity.

Why do you think it will be liberated soon ?

Because Ukraine are winning a multi-pronged conflict.

They're breaking through the Russian defences around Verbove and close to cutting off the land bridge to Crimea.

They're getting good at disabling/interrupting the Kerch bridge connection.

And they're good at using drones and missiles to hit Crimea and make Sevastopol unusable for Russia's fleet.

If Russia can't keep a fleet at Sevastopol, if they can't get reinforcements or support there, then this entire conflict was pointless.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/10/05/russian-warships-leave-annexed-crimea-amid-growing-missile-threats-reports-a82668

Well I hope you are right but I just feel we are here for the long run and will be discussing this for years to come

Happy to become Tazdamus, and be wrong.

Sandpit said:

Rogertrent said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Rogertrent said:

Us economy still pretty strong too. ISM services was strong. Employment out today.

And Russia continue to get their ass handed to them and Crimea might be liberated soon.

There's a lot to be positive about currently, despite the negativity.

Crimea might be liberated soon. What are you smoking. This is the sort of stuff Elon Musk is tweeting now.

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1708629197617336398?s=20

The Ukranian liberation of Crimea is going to be the standout world political event of next year.

Just imagine how awful that is going to be for those defending Tokmak and the Kerch Bridge, knowing that they’re the last holdouts against the inevitable, and suffering daily losses of men and vehicles to do so?

Yes. I thought it'd take 2 more years to get that far, but the way the war is progressing it looks like it could be all done by the end of next year.

An unprecedented failure and humiliation, had they just not invaded they'd have kept Crimea and had their warships in Sevastopol, now they're going backwards not forwards.

No wonder Putin's stooges are getting increasingly shrill in wanting the war to enter a stalemate.

Heathener said:

numbertwelve said:

If Labour have a decent conference without significant missteps, they win Mid Beds, and there is no sign of Tory poll recovery in the coming weeks I’ll be fully prepared to change my position.

My gut has always been, since the Sunak takeover, that the next general election was likely to result in a small Labour majority or even no majority at all.

But I am starting to move towards the idea that something very cataclysmic is awaiting the Tories, and that we might see an utter trouncing. I mean, even sub 150 seat style trouncing.

The polls are just not moving back to them.

There is just an air of complete hopelessness hovering around the Tory Party at the moment. It feels like people just can’t bring themselves to vote for them. Too much water under the bridge. Too much loss of faith.

Yes, Starmer is no Blair but then Sunak is no Major. People thought the country was badly run in 1996 but it was nothing like what we face now. At what point does the choice simply become that a roll of the dice with a fresh face is worth it?

Indeed.

Some of you will have missed my earlier anecdote, which I offer in sincerity.

My lifelong tory voter friend in Surrey told me this week that for the first time in her life she will not be voting Conservative at the next General Election. She has literally voted Conservative for the last three decades, including 1997, 2001 etc. She cited the latest Suella Braverman outburst as the final straw.

When even your lifelong voters are giving up, you've had it.

It's that bad.

I have voted Tory in every GE I have had the vote in. Even 2019. There is just no way I can bring myself to do it next time.

Rishi sends, publicly of course - look at me I have my finger on the pulse, his best wishes to Holly Willoughby after the admittedly awful news some crank wanted to kidnap her and harm her,

Third rate politician rides populist train

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/holly-willoughby-live-rishi-sunak-sends-best-wishes-to-itv-star-as-man-charged-with-kidnap-plot/ar-AA1hMf2W?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=400d07fba19d48e29bb7be881808773f&ei=16

Rogertrent said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Taz said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Rogertrent said:

Us economy still pretty strong too. ISM services was strong. Employment out today.

And Russia continue to get their ass handed to them and Crimea might be liberated soon.

There's a lot to be positive about currently, despite the negativity.

Why do you think it will be liberated soon ?

Because Ukraine are winning a multi-pronged conflict.

They're breaking through the Russian defences around Verbove and close to cutting off the land bridge to Crimea.

They're getting good at disabling/interrupting the Kerch bridge connection.

And they're good at using drones and missiles to hit Crimea and make Sevastopol unusable for Russia's fleet.

If Russia can't keep a fleet at Sevastopol, if they can't get reinforcements or support there, then this entire conflict was pointless.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/10/05/russian-warships-leave-annexed-crimea-amid-growing-missile-threats-reports-a82668

This is total nonsense. Ukrainians are surrenduring en masse and running out of men.

As they say in my part of the world. Are they shite.

Heathener said:

Not only are 8/10 new graduates supportive of the Labour Party but it's the Conservative Party which is losing support among graduates, of all ages and the political map in this country is being redrawn.

And now we see why Sunak attacked the "more people should go to university" culture in his speech...

Rogertrent said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Taz said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Rogertrent said:

Us economy still pretty strong too. ISM services was strong. Employment out today.

And Russia continue to get their ass handed to them and Crimea might be liberated soon.

There's a lot to be positive about currently, despite the negativity.

Why do you think it will be liberated soon ?

Because Ukraine are winning a multi-pronged conflict.

They're breaking through the Russian defences around Verbove and close to cutting off the land bridge to Crimea.

They're getting good at disabling/interrupting the Kerch bridge connection.

And they're good at using drones and missiles to hit Crimea and make Sevastopol unusable for Russia's fleet.

If Russia can't keep a fleet at Sevastopol, if they can't get reinforcements or support there, then this entire conflict was pointless.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/10/05/russian-warships-leave-annexed-crimea-amid-growing-missile-threats-reports-a82668

This is total nonsense. Ukrainians are surrenduring en masse and running out of men.

More RogerNeva than RogerTrent

Leon said:

Andy_JS said:

"A mother-of-three has been left fearing for her children's safety after a violent XL Bully-type dog got into her garden and killed the family's beloved pet cat – in violent scenes caught on CCTV.

Nima Begum, 40, was in her house when she heard a commotion outside and saw a man wrestling with the powerful animal.

He kept shouting 'Your cat is fine', even though his pet's jaws were covered in blood.

Ms Begum rushed outside and found her terrified cat Kiwi cowering in a tree, which she managed to get down with the help of a passer-by. But the tabby died before she could get her to a vet."

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12601837/horrifying-moment-XL-Bully-savagely-mauls-familys-cat-death.html

This is driving me nuts. How much longer is the government going to wait? Get a fucking move on. Just order immediate muzzling NOW. The whole country wants it. Only 10% oppose

While they dither the attacks will continue and soon enough we will be faced with an utterly hideous video of a tiny child being eaten alive

Muzzle these fuckers. Give the owners a slapping

Put it down as another useless intervention by our PM.

Rogertrent said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Taz said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Rogertrent said:

Us economy still pretty strong too. ISM services was strong. Employment out today.

And Russia continue to get their ass handed to them and Crimea might be liberated soon.

There's a lot to be positive about currently, despite the negativity.

Why do you think it will be liberated soon ?

Because Ukraine are winning a multi-pronged conflict.

They're breaking through the Russian defences around Verbove and close to cutting off the land bridge to Crimea.

They're getting good at disabling/interrupting the Kerch bridge connection.

And they're good at using drones and missiles to hit Crimea and make Sevastopol unusable for Russia's fleet.

If Russia can't keep a fleet at Sevastopol, if they can't get reinforcements or support there, then this entire conflict was pointless.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/10/05/russian-warships-leave-annexed-crimea-amid-growing-missile-threats-reports-a82668

This is total nonsense. Ukrainians are surrenduring en masse and running out of men.

There will be some huge POW swaps then, with all those Russians surrendering en masse....

Heathener said:

Taz said:

Heathener said:

Taz said:

kjh said:

Sandpit said:

It’s between Con and Lab, much to the chagrin of the LD by-election machine who thought they could win from a distant 3rd.

I've not heard anything (that I trust) for sometime, but the LDs certainly aren't giving up. Only yesterday I had another email trying to get me there. There is a competition on this week (not really obviously, but just as a means for boosting attendance) between the LD Eastern, London and South East Regions on who can get the most activists there this weekend.

On the current odds quoted I would back the LDs. Who will win is another matter.

Yes, I think Lib Dem is the value bet here. Not sure they will win but it is the value bet.

The 'value bet' meme always makes me smile.

Some of you bet far more than I, and many of you are statisticians in a way that I am not. However, I do tend to make money on political betting and haven't lost for some years. I think @BartholomewRoberts would criticise that approach as 'gambling' is part of the point if a bet is "value."

However, I think it's worth pointing out that if something is 100/1 against it does not mean that one time in one hundred you are going to win. There is no law of averages and if you continue betting then each time you bet you are still only betting at 100/1 odds.

Of course, canny betting is mostly about using your head and spotting something that the betting market doesn't. A great example was Mike's tip on Chesham & Amersham which was based on inside knowledge.

There is no such insight this time and I suspect the reason LibDem odds this morning are drifting even further is that the betting markets have this right: a Labour win.

No need to be snide. It does not become you.

You talk of inside knowledge, thanks to your commentary I made money on the Woking locals last year.

I also backed the Lib Dems in Chesham and TIverton, I have losers too, I thought labour would hold on in Hartlepool

I think the market has moved thanks to Rutherglen. The Lib Dems are formidable campaigners. I see little value in Labour here.

Uh? I wasn't being snide. I was being sincere about my thoughts on 'value' betting. I guess the 'smile' bit was clumsy, mea cupla.

Well done on Woking: really glad to have assisted on that.

xx

Always be grateful for that. If I ever see anyone call you a troll I will always refer to that. How many others who post here have offered insight that has helped posters with bets ?

That is why I think people should listen to your anecdotes too about how a certain sector of the electorate is thinking,

Really?

The AIDS generation and those immidiately afterwards were careful about sexual relationships, but the new teenagers have no such boundaries.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/uk-sexually-transmitted-infections-gonorrhoea-syphilis-sti/

kjh said:

Taz said:

Sandpit said:

It’s between Con and Lab, much to the chagrin of the LD by-election machine who thought they could win from a distant 3rd.

The supreme arrogance of the Lib Dem fanatics who expected Labour should stand aside for them in a seat labour should be the challenger in.

This whole notion, in the "PrOgReSsIvE aLlIaNcE" sphere that all parties are chums who sit around the campfire, holding hands, and singing Kumbayah, while all hating the tories ignores the plain truth that in many parts of the country they are visceral opponents.

Hmmm. Seem to recall there was at least as much Lab expecting the LD to stand aside. And the idea that Lab are the main challengers (because they were 2nd) has plenty of evidence to not be valid. It is too boring to repeat it all here again but in a nutshell: Track record from 3rd in particular in this parliament, easier to get Tories to vote LD than Lab in a Bluewall seat, they are better at by elections, again as also demonstrated in this parliament.

I think the phrase 'supreme arrogance' can be rather turned on its head if Labour (and to use your word) 'fanatics' think this.

As for the 2nd para I totally agree. We have that in our local Surrey County by election on the same day. The contest is between Tory, LD and R4GV (indy). Any of the 3 can win. Labour have put up a candidate and are even putting out a decent leaflet. Why god knows. They will get stuffed and will damage only the LDs.

Part of the question is- what kind of seat is Mid Beds? There are two sorts of place where the Lib Dems are doing really well at the moment- really upmarket commuter belt (Surrey, Buckinghamshire, that sort of place, but not Kent or Essex, leafy Remania) and deeply rural England. Neither of those are places where Labour can really touch the Conservatives. I suspect that Mid Beds doesn't quite tick either box convincingly.

In terms of 2024, it doesn't really matter- there aren't many seats in England where it isn't blindingly obvious who the main anti-Conservative challenger is.

Nigelb said:

(FPT)

Carnyx said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

Rogertrent said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

Farooq said:

Leon said:

Farooq said:

Leon said:

noneoftheabove said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

There’s a concealed warning here for Labour. Which they won’t heed in their justified glee over a triumphant victory

The SNP, inter alia, are a cautionary tale of what happens to a left wing party that gets consumed by identity politics and Wokeness. In the end the voters get sick of it and dump you

I fully expect Labour to follow the SNP’s example when they reach power. They too are drenched in The Woke

You say 'In the end the voters get sick of it and dump you' referring to woke.

After all these years of posting about woke here there are only 2 of you for whom this is a major issue. The rest of us think your obsession is bonkers, I suspect that is true for the rest of the population.

What will probably bring down a Labour government is what brings down all Governments. They get complacent, corruption, cockups, the voters want a change, etc, etc

Woke will be 99 in a list of 100 reasons.

You are obsessed. And that is coming from me who detests wokeness.

This is a really dumb take when Woke issues have obviously contributed, in a major way, to the problems of the SNP

1. Their obsession with Woke gender woo has turned off a lot of voters and activists and caused bitter infighting (cf Joanna Cherry)

2. Their overall Wokeness means they chose the worse Woke candidate for leader - Yousaf - over the obviously superior but decidedly non woke Forbes

So, yes, woke was a big thing in this election. Its probably the first UK election where that has been the case

There will be more. Starmer js quite Woke and his party is often super Woke. Yet the voters are not. I spy trouble ahead (but only after Starmer romps home with a majority)

Indeed, by 2026 Starmer will likely have fixed the economy, introduced a workable and affordable plan for long term care, stopped the boats, ended the war on Ukraine on its own terms and brought waiting lists down to one month for all. However his government will collapse because the Darren Jones vegan wing will be at odds with the Thangam Debbinaire vegan wing over whether venison really is vegan or not.

I am baffled why people apart from Leon and myself can't see this.

Look at America. That’s where we’re headed. Massive culture wars over Wokeness

I really wish this wasn’t the case. But it is. Until AI takes over

Who, on here, stokes culture wars more than you?

I’ve been out in the Maldives with a bunch of people including a well known owner of multiple UK magazines. We’ve had a laugh - he’s a good guy - but he is clearly a lefty and he gets really wound up by the word Woke. It obviously distresses him. Which makes it a successful pejorative and I shall continue to use it as much as I can.

It is also extremely useful in itself. It really does describe SOMETHING - and we all know it when we see it

Strangely, we don't. Some people see it everywhere, a phantom haunting the minds of obsessional weirdos. Others see it here and there. Others see it not at all. We don't all agree on what woke is, or whether this or that thing qualifies.

Anyone who is annoyed, hurt, or distressed by the word Woke, is Woke

There. That’s an easy definition for you

But I'm not annoyed, hurt or distressed by the word Woke. And I am Woke. Try again.

No. It’s not an exclusive definition. If you are annoyed hurt etc by Woke you are Woke. But there are other Woke people who don’t realise Woke is an insult, because they’re stupid, so they don’t get hurt offended etc. I guess you’re one of them?

Of course it's not an insult. It is a word created by Woke people to describe the act of being Woke, which they consider to be a good thing. It was subsequently picked up be people opposed to things like equality and racial justice, who consider Woke to be a bad thing, who have tried to make it an insult. Low grade basic reactionaries who get annoyed and hurt by Woke because they're stupid or perhaps feel threatened buy into this shit. I guess you're one of them?

The thing is do you think equality is ever achievable. That men or women can be completely equal or the races completely equal. Sometimes measures to achieve equality can cause more harm than good.

"Races" don't exist. People from different "races" are completely equal because there's no substance to how people have been divided into different "races".

Except that, genetically, there is

There is broad agreement that humanity can be usefully divided into three broad races - African, Asian, European (for want of better terms).

This is untrue. Anyone saying this is stupid and/or a racist. Leon is the latter and probably the former.

Do please withdraw that remark. I’m right

“Several direct-to-consumer genetic testing companies report how much DNA a person has inherited from prehistoric humans, such as Neanderthals and Denisovans. This information is generally reported as a percentage that suggests how much DNA an individual has inherited from these ancestors. The percentage of Neanderthal DNA in modern humans is zero or close to zero in people from African populations, and is about 1 to 2 percent in people of European or Asian background. The percentage of Denisovan DNA is highest in the Melanesian population (4 to 6 percent), lower in other Southeast Asian and Pacific Islander populations, and very low or undetectable elsewhere in the world.”

THat is a lot of bollocks (so to speak). Humans have about 97% of DNA in common with other chimps.

https://bmcgenomics.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12864-020-06962-8

For these purposes "has x% of DNA in common with" is a very imprecise statement, meaning very different things with regard to modern primates and extinct near-human populations.

As far as the Denisovans (who as far as we know comprised at least two separate populations as distinct from each other as they are from modern humans) are concerned, the DNA 'in common' is largely SNPs associated with the immune system.

It's a very complex subject, but large scale population differences in DNA don't bear much relation to the concept of 'race' we've had rolling around since Victorian times.

Quite. But in a non-genetic forum, 97% of all DNA in common means what it means up front. The stuff from the genetic testing firms is obviously much more heavily qualified in several ways. I'm rusty on recent developments, though, so hesitate to be too specific.

As for race, the similarities in DNA etc are far, far greater than the differences.