It’s between Con and Lab, much to the chagrin of the LD by-election machine who thought they could win from a distant 3rd.
The supreme arrogance of the Lib Dem fanatics who expected Labour should stand aside for them in a seat labour should be the challenger in.
This whole notion, in the "PrOgReSsIvE aLlIaNcE" sphere that all parties are chums who sit around the campfire, holding hands, and singing Kumbayah, while all hating the tories ignores the plain truth that in many parts of the country they are visceral opponents.
Hmmm. Seem to recall there was at least as much Lab expecting the LD to stand aside. And the idea that Lab are the main challengers (because they were 2nd) has plenty of evidence to not be valid. It is too boring to repeat it all here again but in a nutshell: Track record from 3rd in particular in this parliament, easier to get Tories to vote LD than Lab in a Bluewall seat, they are better at by elections, again as also demonstrated in this parliament.
I think the phrase 'supreme arrogance' can be rather turned on its head if Labour (and to use your word) 'fanatics' think this.
As for the 2nd para I totally agree. We have that in our local Surrey County by election on the same day. The contest is between Tory, LD and R4GV (indy). Any of the 3 can win. Labour have put up a candidate and are even putting out a decent leaflet. Why god knows. They will get stuffed and will damage only the LDs.
Part of the question is- what kind of seat is Mid Beds? There are two sorts of place where the Lib Dems are doing really well at the moment- really upmarket commuter belt (Surrey, Buckinghamshire, that sort of place, but not Kent or Essex, leafy Remania) and deeply rural England. Neither of those are places where Labour can really touch the Conservatives. I suspect that Mid Beds doesn't quite tick either box convincingly.
In terms of 2024, it doesn't really matter- there aren't many seats in England where it isn't blindingly obvious who the main anti-Conservative challenger is.
There’s a concealed warning here for Labour. Which they won’t heed in their justified glee over a triumphant victory
The SNP, inter alia, are a cautionary tale of what happens to a left wing party that gets consumed by identity politics and Wokeness. In the end the voters get sick of it and dump you
I fully expect Labour to follow the SNP’s example when they reach power. They too are drenched in The Woke
You say 'In the end the voters get sick of it and dump you' referring to woke.
After all these years of posting about woke here there are only 2 of you for whom this is a major issue. The rest of us think your obsession is bonkers, I suspect that is true for the rest of the population.
What will probably bring down a Labour government is what brings down all Governments. They get complacent, corruption, cockups, the voters want a change, etc, etc
Woke will be 99 in a list of 100 reasons.
You are obsessed. And that is coming from me who detests wokeness.
This is a really dumb take when Woke issues have obviously contributed, in a major way, to the problems of the SNP
1. Their obsession with Woke gender woo has turned off a lot of voters and activists and caused bitter infighting (cf Joanna Cherry)
2. Their overall Wokeness means they chose the worse Woke candidate for leader - Yousaf - over the obviously superior but decidedly non woke Forbes
So, yes, woke was a big thing in this election. Its probably the first UK election where that has been the case
There will be more. Starmer js quite Woke and his party is often super Woke. Yet the voters are not. I spy trouble ahead (but only after Starmer romps home with a majority)
Indeed, by 2026 Starmer will likely have fixed the economy, introduced a workable and affordable plan for long term care, stopped the boats, ended the war on Ukraine on its own terms and brought waiting lists down to one month for all. However his government will collapse because the Darren Jones vegan wing will be at odds with the Thangam Debbinaire vegan wing over whether venison really is vegan or not.
I am baffled why people apart from Leon and myself can't see this.
Look at America. That’s where we’re headed. Massive culture wars over Wokeness
I really wish this wasn’t the case. But it is. Until AI takes over
Who, on here, stokes culture wars more than you?
I’ve been out in the Maldives with a bunch of people including a well known owner of multiple UK magazines. We’ve had a laugh - he’s a good guy - but he is clearly a lefty and he gets really wound up by the word Woke. It obviously distresses him. Which makes it a successful pejorative and I shall continue to use it as much as I can.
It is also extremely useful in itself. It really does describe SOMETHING - and we all know it when we see it
Strangely, we don't. Some people see it everywhere, a phantom haunting the minds of obsessional weirdos. Others see it here and there. Others see it not at all. We don't all agree on what woke is, or whether this or that thing qualifies.
Anyone who is annoyed, hurt, or distressed by the word Woke, is Woke
There. That’s an easy definition for you
But I'm not annoyed, hurt or distressed by the word Woke. And I am Woke. Try again.
No. It’s not an exclusive definition. If you are annoyed hurt etc by Woke you are Woke. But there are other Woke people who don’t realise Woke is an insult, because they’re stupid, so they don’t get hurt offended etc. I guess you’re one of them?
Of course it's not an insult. It is a word created by Woke people to describe the act of being Woke, which they consider to be a good thing. It was subsequently picked up be people opposed to things like equality and racial justice, who consider Woke to be a bad thing, who have tried to make it an insult. Low grade basic reactionaries who get annoyed and hurt by Woke because they're stupid or perhaps feel threatened buy into this shit. I guess you're one of them?
The thing is do you think equality is ever achievable. That men or women can be completely equal or the races completely equal. Sometimes measures to achieve equality can cause more harm than good.
"Races" don't exist. People from different "races" are completely equal because there's no substance to how people have been divided into different "races".
Except that, genetically, there is
There is broad agreement that humanity can be usefully divided into three broad races - African, Asian, European (for want of better terms).
This is untrue. Anyone saying this is stupid and/or a racist. Leon is the latter and probably the former.
Do please withdraw that remark. I’m right
“Several direct-to-consumer genetic testing companies report how much DNA a person has inherited from prehistoric humans, such as Neanderthals and Denisovans. This information is generally reported as a percentage that suggests how much DNA an individual has inherited from these ancestors. The percentage of Neanderthal DNA in modern humans is zero or close to zero in people from African populations, and is about 1 to 2 percent in people of European or Asian background. The percentage of Denisovan DNA is highest in the Melanesian population (4 to 6 percent), lower in other Southeast Asian and Pacific Islander populations, and very low or undetectable elsewhere in the world.”
THat is a lot of bollocks (so to speak). Humans have about 97% of DNA in common with other chimps.
For these purposes "has x% of DNA in common with" is a very imprecise statement, meaning very different things with regard to modern primates and extinct near-human populations.
As far as the Denisovans (who as far as we know comprised at least two separate populations as distinct from each other as they are from modern humans) are concerned, the DNA 'in common' is largely SNPs associated with the immune system.
It's a very complex subject, but large scale population differences in DNA don't bear much relation to the concept of 'race' we've had rolling around since Victorian times.
Quite. But in a non-genetic forum, 97% of all DNA in common means what it means up front. The stuff from the genetic testing firms is obviously much more heavily qualified in several ways. I'm rusty on recent developments, though, so hesitate to be too specific.
As for race, the similarities in DNA etc are far, far greater than the differences.
A soothsayer moment, with due recognition of some hubris here, but genuinely a prediction:
A few years from now people will look back on 2016 - 2024 as a dark time. You don’t need me to list them but just about everything that could go wrong, has. It has been a nightmare. A miserable period.
It’s not that I expect Starmer’s Labour to deliver utopia. It’s just that, by circumstance and luck, this country will settle down once more.
Beyond everything else, this will be the Conservative Party’s hardest task: to recast themselves as a party of aspiration, hope, enjoyment, and happiness.
I am expecting the Labour Party to be in power for 15 years, or more. Many of us will no longer be alive the next time a Conservative Party is elected to power in this country.
Today's national news stories leading with a Labour parliamentary by-election triumph is not going to help the Lib Dems in the "who is best placed to beat the Tories" stakes in Mid Beds.
But is.. is Sir Keir a mason ?
I do hope he answered "No, but Chris with the microphone back there is".
"Most of the filing deadlines for the early primaries are approaching — Nevada and New Hampshire this month, Michigan and California and more in December. There’s still time for other Democrats to jump in the race."
" “They seem hell bent on nominating the one Democrat who would lose to Donald Trump,” Karl Rove told me recently."
Rove is full of it, as far as that last bit is concerned. And while Trump is running, it's quite hard to see Biden giving way to anyone (or anyone seriously challenging him).
The more interesting question is what the hell the Democrats should do if and when Trump's legal problems remove him from the equation.
If that were to happen, it would leave very little time indeed for anyone to challenge or replace Biden.
Rishi sends, publicly of course - look at me I have my finger on the pulse, his best wishes to Holly Willoughby after the admittedly awful news some crank wanted to kidnap her and harm her,
A soothsayer moment, with due recognition of some hubris here, but genuinely a prediction:
A few years from now people will look back on 2016 - 2024 as a dark time. You don’t need me to list them but just about everything that could go wrong, has. It has been a nightmare. A miserable period.
It’s not that I expect Starmer’s Labour to deliver utopia. It’s just that, by circumstance and luck, this country will settle down once more.
Beyond everything else, this will be the Conservative Party’s hardest task: to recast themselves as a party of aspiration, hope, enjoyment, and happiness.
I am expecting the Labour Party to be in power for 15 years, or more. Many of us will no longer be alive the next time a Conservative Party is elected to power in this country.
Hmm, Tamworth was one of the most XL-Bully-loving parts of the UK as shown by that petition.
SKS only has to campaign on saving the cuddly Bully, S, M, L, XL or XXl, doesn't matter, it's sewn up.
(Obvious logic fail there. But he does have a potential wedge issue.)
What petition?
The [edit] online Parliamentary website public petition not to ban the bullies. Much more popular than the petition to ban them, oddly enough. About 3 weeks ago? Much discussed on here at the time, but you might well have missed it.
It’s between Con and Lab, much to the chagrin of the LD by-election machine who thought they could win from a distant 3rd.
The supreme arrogance of the Lib Dem fanatics who expected Labour should stand aside for them in a seat labour should be the challenger in.
This whole notion, in the "PrOgReSsIvE aLlIaNcE" sphere that all parties are chums who sit around the campfire, holding hands, and singing Kumbayah, while all hating the tories ignores the plain truth that in many parts of the country they are visceral opponents.
Hmmm. Seem to recall there was at least as much Lab expecting the LD to stand aside. And the idea that Lab are the main challengers (because they were 2nd) has plenty of evidence to not be valid. It is too boring to repeat it all here again but in a nutshell: Track record from 3rd in particular in this parliament, easier to get Tories to vote LD than Lab in a Bluewall seat, they are better at by elections, again as also demonstrated in this parliament.
I think the phrase 'supreme arrogance' can be rather turned on its head if Labour (and to use your word) 'fanatics' think this.
As for the 2nd para I totally agree. We have that in our local Surrey County by election on the same day. The contest is between Tory, LD and R4GV (indy). Any of the 3 can win. Labour have put up a candidate and are even putting out a decent leaflet. Why god knows. They will get stuffed and will damage only the LDs.
Part of the question is- what kind of seat is Mid Beds? There are two sorts of place where the Lib Dems are doing really well at the moment- really upmarket commuter belt (Surrey, Buckinghamshire, that sort of place, but not Kent or Essex, leafy Remania) and deeply rural England. Neither of those are places where Labour can really touch the Conservatives. I suspect that Mid Beds doesn't quite tick either box convincingly.
In terms of 2024, it doesn't really matter- there aren't many seats in England where it isn't blindingly obvious who the main anti-Conservative challenger is.
Mid Beds does on the surface seem to have more in common with the in betweeny bits of the Midlands than the blue wall or South West.
In American terms the region feels more mid-west / flyover state vs the blue wall (New England) or rural West Country (Pacific NW).
A soothsayer moment, with due recognition of some hubris here, but genuinely a prediction:
A few years from now people will look back on 2016 - 2024 as a dark time. You don’t need me to list them but just about everything that could go wrong, has. It has been a nightmare. A miserable period.
It’s not that I expect Starmer’s Labour to deliver utopia. It’s just that, by circumstance and luck, this country will settle down once more.
Beyond everything else, this will be the Conservative Party’s hardest task: to recast themselves as a party of aspiration, hope, enjoyment, and happiness.
I am expecting the Labour Party to be in power for 15 years, or more. Many of us will no longer be alive the next time a Conservative Party is elected to power in this country.
I do think it is entirely plausible (if the next GE is a rout) that the Tory Party is so toxified after this period of government that it either needs a full scale rebrand or another party will emerge to take its place.
There will be a home for right of centre voters in the coming years. Whether the Tory Party is it, remains to be seen.
But the demise of political parties has been oft forecast over the years. How many times in the last 8 years has the death of the Labour Party been confidently predicted?
But the strange thing about Sunak is that he clearly at least knows what sort of man the moment requires. The need for tough-minded long-term thinking, the attacks on the unserious way policy is made, the need to be prepared to weather short-term unpopularity to break out of a manifestly failing consensus - all of this is true.
It’s just that he clearly has no intention of being that man. He isn’t prepared to make tough decisions about the pensions triple lock, or housing, or infrastructure - not when he can scrap a major capex project and spent almost a quarter of the savings on fixing potholes.
I think the market has moved thanks to Rutherglen. The Lib Dems are formidable campaigners. I see little value in Labour here.
I think there's a consensus here that Labour and LibDems have masses of volunteers on the ground - Slade, no friend of Labour, acknowledged it, and in turn I've no reason to doubt what Mike and Slade and others say about the LibDems. I've seen less about what the Tories are doing, though some MPs in Manchester said they'd been drafted in to help.
That said, there are limits to what parties can do at this point before polling day. Postal votes have gone out and no doubt have mostly been returned by now. Nearly EVERYONE has been canvassed by Lab and LD at least twice, unless they're literally inaccessible. We know what everyone says they'll do. The battle now is over the minority who said they weren't sure, were merely "not Tory", or intended to vote tactically, and there's some scope to influence them, but a point at which yet another visit merely pisses them off.
What does influence floating voters is the national narrative, and I think the market is correctly moving to reflect Rutherglen and the expectation of Labour's conference being better than the Tory conference. A reasonable floating voter observing those and seeing the high level of local activity will tend to discount the LibDem claim that only they can beat the Tories. So the LibDem vote is likely to be mostly non-tactical - people who positively prefer them. I can see that being up from 12.6% last time, but not to the point of winning.
"A mother-of-three has been left fearing for her children's safety after a violent XL Bully-type dog got into her garden and killed the family's beloved pet cat – in violent scenes caught on CCTV.
Nima Begum, 40, was in her house when she heard a commotion outside and saw a man wrestling with the powerful animal.
He kept shouting 'Your cat is fine', even though his pet's jaws were covered in blood.
Ms Begum rushed outside and found her terrified cat Kiwi cowering in a tree, which she managed to get down with the help of a passer-by. But the tabby died before she could get her to a vet."
This is driving me nuts. How much longer is the government going to wait? Get a fucking move on. Just order immediate muzzling NOW. The whole country wants it. Only 10% oppose
While they dither the attacks will continue and soon enough we will be faced with an utterly hideous video of a tiny child being eaten alive
Muzzle these fuckers. Give the owners a slapping
Put it down as another useless intervention by our PM.
The Tories can go fuck themselves. Everything they do is performative. Nothing ever actually happens. Apart from cancelling HS2
If there is an issue with muzzling these dogs then get on TV and explain the problem. What is it?? In the last three days a man has been killed and a toddler nearly lost a leg
Still not as many deaths as the motor car so espoused by Mr Sunak. His refusal to go to 20mph zones and his ban of LTNs is going to kill many more people.
Not that that is any excuse for the dogs. The argument may be that the existing laws are sufficient in principle - dangerous dogs out of control in public and so on. Though we need a clear statement one way or another, as you say. And if they are sufficient, why do we still have the DDA on the statute book banning some breeds?
This is total nonsense. Ukrainians are surrenduring en masse and running out of men.
Well that didn't take long, did it now? @PBModerator
Russian warships are retreating so they don't join the Moskva and other flagships at the bottom of the sea, but you want us to believe the Ukrainians are 'surrenduring'.
Auf wiedersehen, pet.
Impossible to have a rational conversation with you. Much prefer talking to kinabalu.
A soothsayer moment, with due recognition of some hubris here, but genuinely a prediction:
A few years from now people will look back on 2016 - 2024 as a dark time. You don’t need me to list them but just about everything that could go wrong, has. It has been a nightmare. A miserable period.
It’s not that I expect Starmer’s Labour to deliver utopia. It’s just that, by circumstance and luck, this country will settle down once more.
Beyond everything else, this will be the Conservative Party’s hardest task: to recast themselves as a party of aspiration, hope, enjoyment, and happiness.
I am expecting the Labour Party to be in power for 15 years, or more. Many of us will no longer be alive the next time a Conservative Party is elected to power in this country.
Alternatively after a brief lull things get worse again. Its quite possible for countries to decline for 20 or 30 years.
Fantastic comment. I was in a cab today and the cab driver said he didnt believe the mainstream media and he thought covid was a scam. Also said many of his friends thought the same way.
A soothsayer moment, with due recognition of some hubris here, but genuinely a prediction:
A few years from now people will look back on 2016 - 2024 as a dark time. You don’t need me to list them but just about everything that could go wrong, has. It has been a nightmare. A miserable period.
It’s not that I expect Starmer’s Labour to deliver utopia. It’s just that, by circumstance and luck, this country will settle down once more.
Beyond everything else, this will be the Conservative Party’s hardest task: to recast themselves as a party of aspiration, hope, enjoyment, and happiness.
I am expecting the Labour Party to be in power for 15 years, or more. Many of us will no longer be alive the next time a Conservative Party is elected to power in this country.
Alternatively after a brief lull things get worse again. Its quite possible for countries to decline for 20 or 30 years.
A soothsayer moment, with due recognition of some hubris here, but genuinely a prediction:
A few years from now people will look back on 2016 - 2024 as a dark time. You don’t need me to list them but just about everything that could go wrong, has. It has been a nightmare. A miserable period.
It’s not that I expect Starmer’s Labour to deliver utopia. It’s just that, by circumstance and luck, this country will settle down once more.
Beyond everything else, this will be the Conservative Party’s hardest task: to recast themselves as a party of aspiration, hope, enjoyment, and happiness.
I am expecting the Labour Party to be in power for 15 years, or more. Many of us will no longer be alive the next time a Conservative Party is elected to power in this country.
Alternatively after a brief lull things get worse again. Its quite possible for countries to decline for 20 or 30 years.
Russia for example.
An example is Argentina which seems to be in perpetual crisis. Of note Argentina is a democracy.
A soothsayer moment, with due recognition of some hubris here, but genuinely a prediction:
A few years from now people will look back on 2016 - 2024 as a dark time. You don’t need me to list them but just about everything that could go wrong, has. It has been a nightmare. A miserable period.
It’s not that I expect Starmer’s Labour to deliver utopia. It’s just that, by circumstance and luck, this country will settle down once more.
Beyond everything else, this will be the Conservative Party’s hardest task: to recast themselves as a party of aspiration, hope, enjoyment, and happiness.
I am expecting the Labour Party to be in power for 15 years, or more. Many of us will no longer be alive the next time a Conservative Party is elected to power in this country.
Alternatively after a brief lull things get worse again. Its quite possible for countries to decline for 20 or 30 years.
Russia for example.
An example is Argentina which seems to be in perpetual crisis. Of note Argentina is a democracy.
A soothsayer moment, with due recognition of some hubris here, but genuinely a prediction:
A few years from now people will look back on 2016 - 2024 as a dark time. You don’t need me to list them but just about everything that could go wrong, has. It has been a nightmare. A miserable period.
It’s not that I expect Starmer’s Labour to deliver utopia. It’s just that, by circumstance and luck, this country will settle down once more.
Beyond everything else, this will be the Conservative Party’s hardest task: to recast themselves as a party of aspiration, hope, enjoyment, and happiness.
I am expecting the Labour Party to be in power for 15 years, or more. Many of us will no longer be alive the next time a Conservative Party is elected to power in this country.
I do think it is entirely plausible (if the next GE is a rout) that the Tory Party is so toxified after this period of government that it either needs a full scale rebrand or another party will emerge to take its place.
There will be a home for right of centre voters in the coming years. Whether the Tory Party is it, remains to be seen.
But the demise of political parties has been oft forecast over the years. How many times in the last 8 years has the death of the Labour Party been confidently predicted?
While Labour definitely flirted with death under Corbyn, there was always a remnant- there were enough sane labourites keeping their head down and their hand in to create a semi-plausible government in waiting when the time came. Which it has and they have.
I think the Conservatives are in a bigger hole than that already, and they haven't hit rock bottom yet. If you doubt me, suppose that Sunak decided to bugger off to California tomorrow, and by some miracle, Mordaunt got the gig. Does she have enough non-toxic MPs to run a government? Not really. And that's before Braverman has her go at repelling anyone more centrist than her.
It feels crazy to think that a party of government is committing suicide before our eyes. And it may well not happen. But it's much more likely than it should be.
"A mother-of-three has been left fearing for her children's safety after a violent XL Bully-type dog got into her garden and killed the family's beloved pet cat – in violent scenes caught on CCTV.
Nima Begum, 40, was in her house when she heard a commotion outside and saw a man wrestling with the powerful animal.
He kept shouting 'Your cat is fine', even though his pet's jaws were covered in blood.
Ms Begum rushed outside and found her terrified cat Kiwi cowering in a tree, which she managed to get down with the help of a passer-by. But the tabby died before she could get her to a vet."
This is driving me nuts. How much longer is the government going to wait? Get a fucking move on. Just order immediate muzzling NOW. The whole country wants it. Only 10% oppose
While they dither the attacks will continue and soon enough we will be faced with an utterly hideous video of a tiny child being eaten alive
Muzzle these fuckers. Give the owners a slapping
Put it down as another useless intervention by our PM.
The Tories can go fuck themselves. Everything they do is performative. Nothing ever actually happens. Apart from cancelling HS2
If there is an issue with muzzling these dogs then get on TV and explain the problem. What is it?? In the last three days a man has been killed and a toddler nearly lost a leg
Still not as many deaths as the motor car so espoused by Mr Sunak. His refusal to go to 20mph zones and his ban of LTNs is going to kill many more people.
Not that that is any excuse for the dogs. The argument may be that the existing laws are sufficient in principle - dangerous dogs out of control in public and so on. Though we need a clear statement one way or another, as you say. And if they are sufficient, why do we still have the DDA on the statute book banning some breeds?
But the thing is, after the next inevitable and horrifying video of someone being mauled to death, the government will suddenly discover that it CAN do something immediately. In response to the public outcry. Meaning their immobility now is pitiful complacency or incompetence or thanks to some disgraceful lobbying by the RSPCA
A soothsayer moment, with due recognition of some hubris here, but genuinely a prediction:
A few years from now people will look back on 2016 - 2024 as a dark time. You don’t need me to list them but just about everything that could go wrong, has. It has been a nightmare. A miserable period.
It’s not that I expect Starmer’s Labour to deliver utopia. It’s just that, by circumstance and luck, this country will settle down once more.
Beyond everything else, this will be the Conservative Party’s hardest task: to recast themselves as a party of aspiration, hope, enjoyment, and happiness.
I am expecting the Labour Party to be in power for 15 years, or more. Many of us will no longer be alive the next time a Conservative Party is elected to power in this country.
If we still have FPTP.
For all its box office appeal I've come to the conclusion that ditching FPTP for PR is the single biggest positive political change we could make. This Tory Party has wreaked such damage on the country over the last few years and there's no way it could have happened with a proportional system.
A soothsayer moment, with due recognition of some hubris here, but genuinely a prediction:
A few years from now people will look back on 2016 - 2024 as a dark time. You don’t need me to list them but just about everything that could go wrong, has. It has been a nightmare. A miserable period.
It’s not that I expect Starmer’s Labour to deliver utopia. It’s just that, by circumstance and luck, this country will settle down once more.
Beyond everything else, this will be the Conservative Party’s hardest task: to recast themselves as a party of aspiration, hope, enjoyment, and happiness.
I am expecting the Labour Party to be in power for 15 years, or more. Many of us will no longer be alive the next time a Conservative Party is elected to power in this country.
I do think it is entirely plausible (if the next GE is a rout) that the Tory Party is so toxified after this period of government that it either needs a full scale rebrand or another party will emerge to take its place.
There will be a home for right of centre voters in the coming years. Whether the Tory Party is it, remains to be seen.
But the demise of political parties has been oft forecast over the years. How many times in the last 8 years has the death of the Labour Party been confidently predicted?
While Labour definitely flirted with death under Corbyn, there was always a remnant- there were enough sane labourites keeping their head down and their hand in to create a semi-plausible government in waiting when the time came. Which it has and they have.
I think the Conservatives are in a bigger hole than that already, and they haven't hit rock bottom yet. If you doubt me, suppose that Sunak decided to bugger off to California tomorrow, and by some miracle, Mordaunt got the gig. Does she have enough non-toxic MPs to run a government? Not really. And that's before Braverman has her go at repelling anyone more centrist than her.
It feels crazy to think that a party of government is committing suicide before our eyes. And it may well not happen. But it's much more likely than it should be.
And in 10 years much of their client vote will have died.
"A mother-of-three has been left fearing for her children's safety after a violent XL Bully-type dog got into her garden and killed the family's beloved pet cat – in violent scenes caught on CCTV.
Nima Begum, 40, was in her house when she heard a commotion outside and saw a man wrestling with the powerful animal.
He kept shouting 'Your cat is fine', even though his pet's jaws were covered in blood.
Ms Begum rushed outside and found her terrified cat Kiwi cowering in a tree, which she managed to get down with the help of a passer-by. But the tabby died before she could get her to a vet."
This is driving me nuts. How much longer is the government going to wait? Get a fucking move on. Just order immediate muzzling NOW. The whole country wants it. Only 10% oppose
While they dither the attacks will continue and soon enough we will be faced with an utterly hideous video of a tiny child being eaten alive
Muzzle these fuckers. Give the owners a slapping
Put it down as another useless intervention by our PM.
The Tories can go fuck themselves. Everything they do is performative. Nothing ever actually happens. Apart from cancelling HS2
If there is an issue with muzzling these dogs then get on TV and explain the problem. What is it?? In the last three days a man has been killed and a toddler nearly lost a leg
Still not as many deaths as the motor car so espoused by Mr Sunak. His refusal to go to 20mph zones and his ban of LTNs is going to kill many more people.
Not that that is any excuse for the dogs. The argument may be that the existing laws are sufficient in principle - dangerous dogs out of control in public and so on. Though we need a clear statement one way or another, as you say. And if they are sufficient, why do we still have the DDA on the statute book banning some breeds?
I'd much rather get hit by a car than eaten alive by a dog.
But they is a serious point here: XL Bullys are regularly smashing through garden fences to attack pets and people. Muzzling in public isn't going to cut it.
A soothsayer moment, with due recognition of some hubris here, but genuinely a prediction:
A few years from now people will look back on 2016 - 2024 as a dark time. You don’t need me to list them but just about everything that could go wrong, has. It has been a nightmare. A miserable period.
It’s not that I expect Starmer’s Labour to deliver utopia. It’s just that, by circumstance and luck, this country will settle down once more.
Beyond everything else, this will be the Conservative Party’s hardest task: to recast themselves as a party of aspiration, hope, enjoyment, and happiness.
I am expecting the Labour Party to be in power for 15 years, or more. Many of us will no longer be alive the next time a Conservative Party is elected to power in this country.
If we still have FPTP.
For all its box office appeal I've come to the conclusion that ditching FPTP for PR is the single biggest positive political change we could make. This Tory Party has wreaked such damage on the country over the last few years and there's no way it could have happened with a proportional system.
Bravo. I can finally praise you Kinabalu. I agree and this will allow the rise of overt anti immigrant parties like the old bnp.
"In September 2023, she told media that if SNP members did not nominate her as the candidate in the upcoming general election, she would consider resigning to call an immediate by-election.[30]"
A soothsayer moment, with due recognition of some hubris here, but genuinely a prediction:
A few years from now people will look back on 2016 - 2024 as a dark time. You don’t need me to list them but just about everything that could go wrong, has. It has been a nightmare. A miserable period.
It’s not that I expect Starmer’s Labour to deliver utopia. It’s just that, by circumstance and luck, this country will settle down once more.
Beyond everything else, this will be the Conservative Party’s hardest task: to recast themselves as a party of aspiration, hope, enjoyment, and happiness.
I am expecting the Labour Party to be in power for 15 years, or more. Many of us will no longer be alive the next time a Conservative Party is elected to power in this country.
If we still have FPTP.
For all its box office appeal I've come to the conclusion that ditching FPTP for PR is the single biggest positive political change we could make. This Tory Party has wreaked such damage on the country over the last few years and there's no way it could have happened with a proportional system.
Bravo. I can finally praise you Kinabalu. I agree and this will allow the rise of overt anti immigrant parties like the old bnp.
Rishi sends, publicly of course - look at me I have my finger on the pulse, his best wishes to Holly Willoughby after the admittedly awful news some crank wanted to kidnap her and harm her,
"A mother-of-three has been left fearing for her children's safety after a violent XL Bully-type dog got into her garden and killed the family's beloved pet cat – in violent scenes caught on CCTV.
Nima Begum, 40, was in her house when she heard a commotion outside and saw a man wrestling with the powerful animal.
He kept shouting 'Your cat is fine', even though his pet's jaws were covered in blood.
Ms Begum rushed outside and found her terrified cat Kiwi cowering in a tree, which she managed to get down with the help of a passer-by. But the tabby died before she could get her to a vet."
This is driving me nuts. How much longer is the government going to wait? Get a fucking move on. Just order immediate muzzling NOW. The whole country wants it. Only 10% oppose
While they dither the attacks will continue and soon enough we will be faced with an utterly hideous video of a tiny child being eaten alive
Muzzle these fuckers. Give the owners a slapping
Put it down as another useless intervention by our PM.
The Tories can go fuck themselves. Everything they do is performative. Nothing ever actually happens. Apart from cancelling HS2
If there is an issue with muzzling these dogs then get on TV and explain the problem. What is it?? In the last three days a man has been killed and a toddler nearly lost a leg
Still not as many deaths as the motor car so espoused by Mr Sunak. His refusal to go to 20mph zones and his ban of LTNs is going to kill many more people.
Not that that is any excuse for the dogs. The argument may be that the existing laws are sufficient in principle - dangerous dogs out of control in public and so on. Though we need a clear statement one way or another, as you say. And if they are sufficient, why do we still have the DDA on the statute book banning some breeds?
I'd much rather get hit by a car than eaten alive by a dog.
But they is a serious point here: XL Bullys are regularly smashing through garden fences to attack pets and people. Muzzling in public isn't going to cut it.
Quite so. It did occur to me. But it is subsumed into the 'argument' - or rather assessment - within HMG which I infer above. The laws for having an out of control dog in public do cover that already. Conversely, the reluctance to have muzzling-in-public laws may very well be based on your point. In a rather unhelpful way to the average smaller pooch and human of all sizes.
But the strange thing about Sunak is that he clearly at least knows what sort of man the moment requires. The need for tough-minded long-term thinking, the attacks on the unserious way policy is made, the need to be prepared to weather short-term unpopularity to break out of a manifestly failing consensus - all of this is true.
It’s just that he clearly has no intention of being that man. He isn’t prepared to make tough decisions about the pensions triple lock, or housing, or infrastructure - not when he can scrap a major capex project and spent almost a quarter of the savings on fixing potholes.
Does that demonstrate anything more than that Sunak has read something about the need for tough-minded long-term thinking, and thought "I could pretend to do that"?
"A mother-of-three has been left fearing for her children's safety after a violent XL Bully-type dog got into her garden and killed the family's beloved pet cat – in violent scenes caught on CCTV.
Nima Begum, 40, was in her house when she heard a commotion outside and saw a man wrestling with the powerful animal.
He kept shouting 'Your cat is fine', even though his pet's jaws were covered in blood.
Ms Begum rushed outside and found her terrified cat Kiwi cowering in a tree, which she managed to get down with the help of a passer-by. But the tabby died before she could get her to a vet."
This is driving me nuts. How much longer is the government going to wait? Get a fucking move on. Just order immediate muzzling NOW. The whole country wants it. Only 10% oppose
While they dither the attacks will continue and soon enough we will be faced with an utterly hideous video of a tiny child being eaten alive
Muzzle these fuckers. Give the owners a slapping
Put it down as another useless intervention by our PM.
The Tories can go fuck themselves. Everything they do is performative. Nothing ever actually happens. Apart from cancelling HS2
If there is an issue with muzzling these dogs then get on TV and explain the problem. What is it?? In the last three days a man has been killed and a toddler nearly lost a leg
Still not as many deaths as the motor car so espoused by Mr Sunak. His refusal to go to 20mph zones and his ban of LTNs is going to kill many more people.
Not that that is any excuse for the dogs. The argument may be that the existing laws are sufficient in principle - dangerous dogs out of control in public and so on. Though we need a clear statement one way or another, as you say. And if they are sufficient, why do we still have the DDA on the statute book banning some breeds?
But the thing is, after the next inevitable and horrifying video of someone being mauled to death, the government will suddenly discover that it CAN do something immediately. In response to the public outcry. Meaning their immobility now is pitiful complacency or incompetence or thanks to some disgraceful lobbying by the RSPCA
I hope I’m wrong and this video never arrives
Quite so, on both points. Though it's not just the RSPCA, I am sure. There is a real threat to more politically influential owners' dogs. Remember Malmesbury's - Or at least I think it was him - suggestion that only the more working class breeds got it in the original DDA. not the equally dangerous but more upper class ones.
I think the market has moved thanks to Rutherglen. The Lib Dems are formidable campaigners. I see little value in Labour here.
I think there's a consensus here that Labour and LibDems have masses of volunteers on the ground - Slade, no friend of Labour, acknowledged it, and in turn I've no reason to doubt what Mike and Slade and others say about the LibDems. I've seen less about what the Tories are doing, though some MPs in Manchester said they'd been drafted in to help.
That said, there are limits to what parties can do at this point before polling day. Postal votes have gone out and no doubt have mostly been returned by now. Nearly EVERYONE has been canvassed by Lab and LD at least twice, unless they're literally inaccessible. We know what everyone says they'll do. The battle now is over the minority who said they weren't sure, were merely "not Tory", or intended to vote tactically, and there's some scope to influence them, but a point at which yet another visit merely pisses them off.
What does influence floating voters is the national narrative, and I think the market is correctly moving to reflect Rutherglen and the expectation of Labour's conference being better than the Tory conference. A reasonable floating voter observing those and seeing the high level of local activity will tend to discount the LibDem claim that only they can beat the Tories. So the LibDem vote is likely to be mostly non-tactical - people who positively prefer them. I can see that being up from 12.6% last time, but not to the point of winning.
At Somerton and Frome the Conservative vote in the by-election was 28% of the GE figure -If this happens at Mid Beds then Conservative vote will be 11,000. Whilst the Conservative candidate is known locally the Dories/Truss/Boris effect should produce a similar result in Mid Beds. Everything depends on turnout. If 42% would give a total vote of about 37,000 - give 4,000 to the independent and hangers on leaves 22,000 split between Lib Dems and Labour which I think could split 12,000 Lib Dem 10,000 Labour. Last time Labour polled 14,000 on a 74% turnout.
But the strange thing about Sunak is that he clearly at least knows what sort of man the moment requires. The need for tough-minded long-term thinking, the attacks on the unserious way policy is made, the need to be prepared to weather short-term unpopularity to break out of a manifestly failing consensus - all of this is true.
It’s just that he clearly has no intention of being that man. He isn’t prepared to make tough decisions about the pensions triple lock, or housing, or infrastructure - not when he can scrap a major capex project and spent almost a quarter of the savings on fixing potholes.
Does that demonstrate anything more than that Sunak has read something about the need for tough-minded long-term thinking, and thought "I could pretend to do that"?
That also rather begs the question, why didn't he do it a year ago? It's not as if he hadn't been C of the E and wasn't familiar with the sums for HS2 and the UK as a whole.
But the strange thing about Sunak is that he clearly at least knows what sort of man the moment requires. The need for tough-minded long-term thinking, the attacks on the unserious way policy is made, the need to be prepared to weather short-term unpopularity to break out of a manifestly failing consensus - all of this is true.
It’s just that he clearly has no intention of being that man. He isn’t prepared to make tough decisions about the pensions triple lock, or housing, or infrastructure - not when he can scrap a major capex project and spent almost a quarter of the savings on fixing potholes.
"A mother-of-three has been left fearing for her children's safety after a violent XL Bully-type dog got into her garden and killed the family's beloved pet cat – in violent scenes caught on CCTV.
Nima Begum, 40, was in her house when she heard a commotion outside and saw a man wrestling with the powerful animal.
He kept shouting 'Your cat is fine', even though his pet's jaws were covered in blood.
Ms Begum rushed outside and found her terrified cat Kiwi cowering in a tree, which she managed to get down with the help of a passer-by. But the tabby died before she could get her to a vet."
This is driving me nuts. How much longer is the government going to wait? Get a fucking move on. Just order immediate muzzling NOW. The whole country wants it. Only 10% oppose
While they dither the attacks will continue and soon enough we will be faced with an utterly hideous video of a tiny child being eaten alive
Muzzle these fuckers. Give the owners a slapping
Put it down as another useless intervention by our PM.
The Tories can go fuck themselves. Everything they do is performative. Nothing ever actually happens. Apart from cancelling HS2
If there is an issue with muzzling these dogs then get on TV and explain the problem. What is it?? In the last three days a man has been killed and a toddler nearly lost a leg
Still not as many deaths as the motor car so espoused by Mr Sunak. His refusal to go to 20mph zones and his ban of LTNs is going to kill many more people.
Not that that is any excuse for the dogs. The argument may be that the existing laws are sufficient in principle - dangerous dogs out of control in public and so on. Though we need a clear statement one way or another, as you say. And if they are sufficient, why do we still have the DDA on the statute book banning some breeds?
But the thing is, after the next inevitable and horrifying video of someone being mauled to death, the government will suddenly discover that it CAN do something immediately. In response to the public outcry. Meaning their immobility now is pitiful complacency or incompetence or thanks to some disgraceful lobbying by the RSPCA
I hope I’m wrong and this video never arrives
What strikes me is how delusional a lot of dog owners are about their pets. Quite often, when you're going for a walk in a park, a dog comes running towards you, and the dog owner shouts out to the dog to stop doing so, and 90% of the time the dog doesn't listen to them and continues to run towards you, much to the "shock" of the owner. Each time, they have a touching belief that the dog will do what they want, not what it wants to do.
But the strange thing about Sunak is that he clearly at least knows what sort of man the moment requires. The need for tough-minded long-term thinking, the attacks on the unserious way policy is made, the need to be prepared to weather short-term unpopularity to break out of a manifestly failing consensus - all of this is true.
It’s just that he clearly has no intention of being that man. He isn’t prepared to make tough decisions about the pensions triple lock, or housing, or infrastructure - not when he can scrap a major capex project and spent almost a quarter of the savings on fixing potholes.
Does that demonstrate anything more than that Sunak has read something about the need for tough-minded long-term thinking, and thought "I could pretend to do that"?
That also rather begs the question, why didn't he do it a year ago? It's not as if he hadn't been C of the E and wasn't familiar with the sums for HS2 and the UK as a whole.
It suggests the answer that he's a cynical politician who cares nothing for the actual economy, and who is desperate to change the 'narrative', whatever the cost.
Looking at those POTUS polls, one way Biden is in trouble is on immigration
After campaigning in 2019-20 against Trump’s absurd and “racist” border wall, and ceasing construction of it, he is now… building the wall
“CNN: Biden administration bypasses 26 federal laws to build additional border wall in South Texas
Absolutely amazing how Dems' immigration views and rhetoric radically changed the second large numbers of undocumented migrants arrived in blue cities:”
I have never liked Mission Statements but the apparent slogan for the Labour conference is a classic : “Let's get Britain's future back”. Completely meaningless drivel
A soothsayer moment, with due recognition of some hubris here, but genuinely a prediction:
A few years from now people will look back on 2016 - 2024 as a dark time. You don’t need me to list them but just about everything that could go wrong, has. It has been a nightmare. A miserable period.
It’s not that I expect Starmer’s Labour to deliver utopia. It’s just that, by circumstance and luck, this country will settle down once more.
Beyond everything else, this will be the Conservative Party’s hardest task: to recast themselves as a party of aspiration, hope, enjoyment, and happiness.
I am expecting the Labour Party to be in power for 15 years, or more. Many of us will no longer be alive the next time a Conservative Party is elected to power in this country.
I do think it is entirely plausible (if the next GE is a rout) that the Tory Party is so toxified after this period of government that it either needs a full scale rebrand or another party will emerge to take its place.
There will be a home for right of centre voters in the coming years. Whether the Tory Party is it, remains to be seen.
But the demise of political parties has been oft forecast over the years. How many times in the last 8 years has the death of the Labour Party been confidently predicted?
While Labour definitely flirted with death under Corbyn, there was always a remnant- there were enough sane labourites keeping their head down and their hand in to create a semi-plausible government in waiting when the time came. Which it has and they have.
I think the Conservatives are in a bigger hole than that already, and they haven't hit rock bottom yet. If you doubt me, suppose that Sunak decided to bugger off to California tomorrow, and by some miracle, Mordaunt got the gig. Does she have enough non-toxic MPs to run a government? Not really. And that's before Braverman has her go at repelling anyone more centrist than her.
It feels crazy to think that a party of government is committing suicide before our eyes. And it may well not happen. But it's much more likely than it should be.
There will be a right-wing opposition party to Labour. If it isn't the Conservatives, who will it be?
Will it be Reform/UKIP? Not while the Tories are stealing all their lines.
The Lib Dems then? Are they positioning themselves to be a centre-right opposition to Labour? I don't see it.
Some new party then? Rory Stewart and a blue SDP will create a new conservative party?
It will be the Tories because of FPTP, and because the Tories in opposition will block off the chance of being eclipsed by a party to their right.
"...Even now, raising the issue of children with Tories of the Cameroon era gets one dismissed as a crank. Why go to the vast expense of gestating the next generation of taxpayers when you can, to quote one former spad, “just import people”?..."
"...There is never going to come a moment when the electorally-dominant older generation are suddenly up for paying for things, nor when business decides that it’s finally a good time for them to invest in training and higher wages and otherwise internalise a load of costs they’ve been palming off for decades...If you want something to happen in the long term, you have at some point to start doing the work in the here and now..."
"A mother-of-three has been left fearing for her children's safety after a violent XL Bully-type dog got into her garden and killed the family's beloved pet cat – in violent scenes caught on CCTV.
Nima Begum, 40, was in her house when she heard a commotion outside and saw a man wrestling with the powerful animal.
He kept shouting 'Your cat is fine', even though his pet's jaws were covered in blood.
Ms Begum rushed outside and found her terrified cat Kiwi cowering in a tree, which she managed to get down with the help of a passer-by. But the tabby died before she could get her to a vet."
This is driving me nuts. How much longer is the government going to wait? Get a fucking move on. Just order immediate muzzling NOW. The whole country wants it. Only 10% oppose
While they dither the attacks will continue and soon enough we will be faced with an utterly hideous video of a tiny child being eaten alive
Muzzle these fuckers. Give the owners a slapping
Put it down as another useless intervention by our PM.
The Tories can go fuck themselves. Everything they do is performative. Nothing ever actually happens. Apart from cancelling HS2
If there is an issue with muzzling these dogs then get on TV and explain the problem. What is it?? In the last three days a man has been killed and a toddler nearly lost a leg
Still not as many deaths as the motor car so espoused by Mr Sunak. His refusal to go to 20mph zones and his ban of LTNs is going to kill many more people.
Not that that is any excuse for the dogs. The argument may be that the existing laws are sufficient in principle - dangerous dogs out of control in public and so on. Though we need a clear statement one way or another, as you say. And if they are sufficient, why do we still have the DDA on the statute book banning some breeds?
But the thing is, after the next inevitable and horrifying video of someone being mauled to death, the government will suddenly discover that it CAN do something immediately. In response to the public outcry. Meaning their immobility now is pitiful complacency or incompetence or thanks to some disgraceful lobbying by the RSPCA
I hope I’m wrong and this video never arrives
What strikes me is how delusional a lot of dog owners are about their pets. Quite often, when you're going for a walk in a park, a dog comes running towards you, and the dog owner shouts out to the dog to stop doing so, and 90% of the time the dog doesn't listen to them and continues to run towards you, much to the "shock" of the owner. Each time, they have a touching belief that the dog will do what they want, not what it wants to do.
I don't think they are delusional, but just hopeful (which isn't necessarily good). Our dog is the same. He is well trained but if something else is more interesting than obeying a command he will do that. You mitigate this by putting him on a lead when walking near a road, putting him a lead if you meet another dog on a lead, putting him on lead if you see people for whom the dog might be an issue (frail people, people wearing white trousers while on a walk in the woods (really!)).
No matter how well trained your dog is he has a will of his own and that is why the Bully XL is so dangerous. Our dog is harmless as he is just very friendly and only weighs 14 kg, but I still wouldn't leave him alone with a baby and keep him on a lead in the presence of a frail or frightened person.
"...Even now, raising the issue of children with Tories of the Cameroon era gets one dismissed as a crank. Why go to the vast expense of gestating the next generation of taxpayers when you can, to quote one former spad, “just import people”?..."
"...There is never going to come a moment when the electorally-dominant older generation are suddenly up for paying for things, nor when business decides that it’s finally a good time for them to invest in training and higher wages and otherwise internalise a load of costs they’ve been palming off for decades...If you want something to happen in the long term, you have at some point to start doing the work in the here and now..."
"...After 13 contorted years, British conservatives, whether they are members of parliament, members of the party, or its outriders in the media, no longer know what conservatism is. Everything has been tried – David Cameron’s bougie nudge-theory paternalism; Theresa May’s Home Counties authoritarianism; Boris Johnson’s One Nation Global Britain boosterism; Liz Truss’s kamikaze Thatcherism – and everything has failed..."
A soothsayer moment, with due recognition of some hubris here, but genuinely a prediction:
A few years from now people will look back on 2016 - 2024 as a dark time. You don’t need me to list them but just about everything that could go wrong, has. It has been a nightmare. A miserable period.
It’s not that I expect Starmer’s Labour to deliver utopia. It’s just that, by circumstance and luck, this country will settle down once more.
Beyond everything else, this will be the Conservative Party’s hardest task: to recast themselves as a party of aspiration, hope, enjoyment, and happiness.
I am expecting the Labour Party to be in power for 15 years, or more. Many of us will no longer be alive the next time a Conservative Party is elected to power in this country.
If we still have FPTP.
For all its box office appeal I've come to the conclusion that ditching FPTP for PR is the single biggest positive political change we could make. This Tory Party has wreaked such damage on the country over the last few years and there's no way it could have happened with a proportional system.
Have you ever heard of the Progressive Democrats? Fianna Fail? Charles Haughey? Not to mention Dev himself.
"...Even now, raising the issue of children with Tories of the Cameroon era gets one dismissed as a crank. Why go to the vast expense of gestating the next generation of taxpayers when you can, to quote one former spad, “just import people”?..."
"...There is never going to come a moment when the electorally-dominant older generation are suddenly up for paying for things, nor when business decides that it’s finally a good time for them to invest in training and higher wages and otherwise internalise a load of costs they’ve been palming off for decades...If you want something to happen in the long term, you have at some point to start doing the work in the here and now..."
"...After 13 contorted years, British conservatives, whether they are members of parliament, members of the party, or its outriders in the media, no longer know what conservatism is. Everything has been tried – David Cameron’s bougie nudge-theory paternalism; Theresa May’s Home Counties authoritarianism; Boris Johnson’s One Nation Global Britain boosterism; Liz Truss’s kamikaze Thatcherism – and everything has failed..."
That can all be applied to Labour. What do they stand for? What are they gonna do? How are they different to the Tories?
Right now they are a blank slate onto which millions are fervently projecting. That will end the day Labour are elected and actually have to do stuff. It might be a nasty surprise for many Brits
But the strange thing about Sunak is that he clearly at least knows what sort of man the moment requires. The need for tough-minded long-term thinking, the attacks on the unserious way policy is made, the need to be prepared to weather short-term unpopularity to break out of a manifestly failing consensus - all of this is true.
It’s just that he clearly has no intention of being that man. He isn’t prepared to make tough decisions about the pensions triple lock, or housing, or infrastructure - not when he can scrap a major capex project and spent almost a quarter of the savings on fixing potholes.
Does that demonstrate anything more than that Sunak has read something about the need for tough-minded long-term thinking, and thought "I could pretend to do that"?
That also rather begs the question, why didn't he do it a year ago? It's not as if he hadn't been C of the E and wasn't familiar with the sums for HS2 and the UK as a whole.
It suggests the answer that he's a cynical politician who cares nothing for the actual economy, and who is desperate to change the 'narrative', whatever the cost.
Yep. Flailing around for something - anything - to head off a very bad defeat. I don't think there's much more to it.
This is total nonsense. Ukrainians are surrenduring en masse and running out of men.
Well that didn't take long, did it now? @PBModerator
Russian warships are retreating so they don't join the Moskva and other flagships at the bottom of the sea, but you want us to believe the Ukrainians are 'surrenduring'.
Auf wiedersehen, pet.
Impossible to have a rational conversation with you. Much prefer talking to kinabalu.
Russian trolls don't like me. I'm so heartbroken. 💔
Oh wait, no I'm not. Bye troll, see you tomorrow morning.
A soothsayer moment, with due recognition of some hubris here, but genuinely a prediction:
A few years from now people will look back on 2016 - 2024 as a dark time. You don’t need me to list them but just about everything that could go wrong, has. It has been a nightmare. A miserable period.
It’s not that I expect Starmer’s Labour to deliver utopia. It’s just that, by circumstance and luck, this country will settle down once more.
Beyond everything else, this will be the Conservative Party’s hardest task: to recast themselves as a party of aspiration, hope, enjoyment, and happiness.
I am expecting the Labour Party to be in power for 15 years, or more. Many of us will no longer be alive the next time a Conservative Party is elected to power in this country.
If we still have FPTP.
For all its box office appeal I've come to the conclusion that ditching FPTP for PR is the single biggest positive political change we could make. This Tory Party has wreaked such damage on the country over the last few years and there's no way it could have happened with a proportional system.
Have you ever heard of the Progressive Democrats? Fianna Fail? Charles Haughey? Not to mention Dev himself.
"A mother-of-three has been left fearing for her children's safety after a violent XL Bully-type dog got into her garden and killed the family's beloved pet cat – in violent scenes caught on CCTV.
Nima Begum, 40, was in her house when she heard a commotion outside and saw a man wrestling with the powerful animal.
He kept shouting 'Your cat is fine', even though his pet's jaws were covered in blood.
Ms Begum rushed outside and found her terrified cat Kiwi cowering in a tree, which she managed to get down with the help of a passer-by. But the tabby died before she could get her to a vet."
This is driving me nuts. How much longer is the government going to wait? Get a fucking move on. Just order immediate muzzling NOW. The whole country wants it. Only 10% oppose
While they dither the attacks will continue and soon enough we will be faced with an utterly hideous video of a tiny child being eaten alive
Muzzle these fuckers. Give the owners a slapping
Put it down as another useless intervention by our PM.
The Tories can go fuck themselves. Everything they do is performative. Nothing ever actually happens. Apart from cancelling HS2
If there is an issue with muzzling these dogs then get on TV and explain the problem. What is it?? In the last three days a man has been killed and a toddler nearly lost a leg
Still not as many deaths as the motor car so espoused by Mr Sunak. His refusal to go to 20mph zones and his ban of LTNs is going to kill many more people.
Not that that is any excuse for the dogs. The argument may be that the existing laws are sufficient in principle - dangerous dogs out of control in public and so on. Though we need a clear statement one way or another, as you say. And if they are sufficient, why do we still have the DDA on the statute book banning some breeds?
But the thing is, after the next inevitable and horrifying video of someone being mauled to death, the government will suddenly discover that it CAN do something immediately. In response to the public outcry. Meaning their immobility now is pitiful complacency or incompetence or thanks to some disgraceful lobbying by the RSPCA
I hope I’m wrong and this video never arrives
What strikes me is how delusional a lot of dog owners are about their pets. Quite often, when you're going for a walk in a park, a dog comes running towards you, and the dog owner shouts out to the dog to stop doing so, and 90% of the time the dog doesn't listen to them and continues to run towards you, much to the "shock" of the owner. Each time, they have a touching belief that the dog will do what they want, not what it wants to do.
Yes XL Bully's are lethal and should be banned immediately. Yes flaws in the Dangerous Dogs Act should be addressed, and any new legislation should be capable of being quickly amended to deal with the new dangerous cross breeds of such dogs that would inevitably emerge if the legislation did not evolve. I have absolutely no time for people who wish to own these particular dangerous breeds. The issue of whether or not they are well trained is immaterial - you don't allow someone to keep a sub-machine gun at home just because they don't load it. There are countless other breeds of dogs to choose that will never pose a threat whatsoever, and which enrich the lives of all who come into contact with them.
However, what worries me is how quickly a justified concern about a prolonged lack of action and legislation to deal with a public threat posed by a very specific breed of dog can turn into unjustified and ill-informed call for action against "dogs" in general. The problem is not with dogs in general, it's with the specific breed.
I expect no 10 is close to full on panic mode after no signs of any post conference bounce . Indeed beneath the headline voter intention on YouGov opinions about Sunak amongst those who said it made a difference , 21 now worse , 10 better .
The Tories are desperate to move the needle but at the moment even if some of the policy announcements were popular, voters just aren’t interested in changing their voter intention .
Have they stopped listening or don’t believe anything that Sunak proposes will see the light of day ?
"...Even now, raising the issue of children with Tories of the Cameroon era gets one dismissed as a crank. Why go to the vast expense of gestating the next generation of taxpayers when you can, to quote one former spad, “just import people”?..."
"...There is never going to come a moment when the electorally-dominant older generation are suddenly up for paying for things, nor when business decides that it’s finally a good time for them to invest in training and higher wages and otherwise internalise a load of costs they’ve been palming off for decades...If you want something to happen in the long term, you have at some point to start doing the work in the here and now..."
"...After 13 contorted years, British conservatives, whether they are members of parliament, members of the party, or its outriders in the media, no longer know what conservatism is. Everything has been tried – David Cameron’s bougie nudge-theory paternalism; Theresa May’s Home Counties authoritarianism; Boris Johnson’s One Nation Global Britain boosterism; Liz Truss’s kamikaze Thatcherism – and everything has failed..."
That can all be applied to Labour. What do they stand for? What are they gonna do? How are they different to the Tories?
Right now they are a blank slate onto which millions are fervently projecting. That will end the day Labour are elected and actually have to do stuff. It might be a nasty surprise for many Brits
Oh, true, true. You'll hear no argument from me on that one. I remind you of my rant that in this post-neoliberalism world the old ways don't work and rather than coming to grips with the problem both sides have retreated into managerialism and technocracy. It's a bit like when the old aristocracy couldn't come to terms with the new order and busied themselves repairing holes in the roof until the bailiffs came. Until somebody gets it, it's just variations on moving the deckchairs.
"...Even now, raising the issue of children with Tories of the Cameroon era gets one dismissed as a crank. Why go to the vast expense of gestating the next generation of taxpayers when you can, to quote one former spad, “just import people”?..."
"...There is never going to come a moment when the electorally-dominant older generation are suddenly up for paying for things, nor when business decides that it’s finally a good time for them to invest in training and higher wages and otherwise internalise a load of costs they’ve been palming off for decades...If you want something to happen in the long term, you have at some point to start doing the work in the here and now..."
"...After 13 contorted years, British conservatives, whether they are members of parliament, members of the party, or its outriders in the media, no longer know what conservatism is. Everything has been tried – David Cameron’s bougie nudge-theory paternalism; Theresa May’s Home Counties authoritarianism; Boris Johnson’s One Nation Global Britain boosterism; Liz Truss’s kamikaze Thatcherism – and everything has failed..."
That can all be applied to Labour. What do they stand for? What are they gonna do? How are they different to the Tories?
Right now they are a blank slate onto which millions are fervently projecting. That will end the day Labour are elected and actually have to do stuff. It might be a nasty surprise for many Brits
I have come into contact with various people in their shadow team and they do have a strikingly better sense of policy direction and structure than either their conservative counterparts or their predecessors (who by and large rarely engage with business except in very narrow areas).
That’s not to say that they have a radical transformative agenda, but who in the West does - at least one that stands up to scrutiny?
I have never liked Mission Statements but the apparent slogan for the Labour conference is a classic : “Let's get Britain's future back”. Completely meaningless drivel
They would normally focus group these things but I agree it’s drivel .
"...Even now, raising the issue of children with Tories of the Cameroon era gets one dismissed as a crank. Why go to the vast expense of gestating the next generation of taxpayers when you can, to quote one former spad, “just import people”?..."
"...There is never going to come a moment when the electorally-dominant older generation are suddenly up for paying for things, nor when business decides that it’s finally a good time for them to invest in training and higher wages and otherwise internalise a load of costs they’ve been palming off for decades...If you want something to happen in the long term, you have at some point to start doing the work in the here and now..."
"...After 13 contorted years, British conservatives, whether they are members of parliament, members of the party, or its outriders in the media, no longer know what conservatism is. Everything has been tried – David Cameron’s bougie nudge-theory paternalism; Theresa May’s Home Counties authoritarianism; Boris Johnson’s One Nation Global Britain boosterism; Liz Truss’s kamikaze Thatcherism – and everything has failed..."
That can all be applied to Labour. What do they stand for? What are they gonna do? How are they different to the Tories?
Right now they are a blank slate onto which millions are fervently projecting. That will end the day Labour are elected and actually have to do stuff. It might be a nasty surprise for many Brits
There's little 'fervent projection' going on. There's just a strong general feeling that the Tories have lost the plot and (for their own sake as much as ours) need to be ejected from office.
It’s between Con and Lab, much to the chagrin of the LD by-election machine who thought they could win from a distant 3rd.
The great unknown is how many traditional Tories couldn't bring themselves to vote for Nadine, but might now return to the fold.
Dotty though Dorries was, why wouldn't a "traditional Tory" have voted for her in 2005-2019? She pretty reliably trooped through the relevant lobby for her party, and was even a government minister at one point. She had a sizeable majority.
No doubt people were pretty p1ssed off with towards the end, but a lot of that was over her conduct in the final few months and wouldn't have been a factor in the five elections she actually fought and won.
She was Marmite, as was Boris. As with Boris, she was quite easy to take against.
I expect no 10 is close to full on panic mode after no signs of any post conference bounce . Indeed beneath the headline voter intention on YouGov opinions about Sunak amongst those who said it made a difference , 21 now worse , 10 better .
The Tories are desperate to move the needle but at the moment even if some of the policy announcements were popular, voters just aren’t interested in changing their voter intention .
Have they stopped listening or don’t believe anything that Sunak proposes will see the light of day ?
There's something a little nauseating when someone tries a little too much to be liked. Children can spot it and push an isolated child further away. Its not enough to pander to people and it makes even those predisposed to you turn away.
But the strange thing about Sunak is that he clearly at least knows what sort of man the moment requires. The need for tough-minded long-term thinking, the attacks on the unserious way policy is made, the need to be prepared to weather short-term unpopularity to break out of a manifestly failing consensus - all of this is true.
It’s just that he clearly has no intention of being that man. He isn’t prepared to make tough decisions about the pensions triple lock, or housing, or infrastructure - not when he can scrap a major capex project and spent almost a quarter of the savings on fixing potholes.
Does that demonstrate anything more than that Sunak has read something about the need for tough-minded long-term thinking, and thought "I could pretend to do that"?
That also rather begs the question, why didn't he do it a year ago? It's not as if he hadn't been C of the E and wasn't familiar with the sums for HS2 and the UK as a whole.
It suggests the answer that he's a cynical politician who cares nothing for the actual economy, and who is desperate to change the 'narrative', whatever the cost.
Yep. Flailing around for something - anything - to head off a very bad defeat. I don't think there's much more to it.
It's shifted the dial, though.
Check out the replies to this otherwise anodyne Twitter post (nb NOT Trans Pennine Express).
I expect no 10 is close to full on panic mode after no signs of any post conference bounce . Indeed beneath the headline voter intention on YouGov opinions about Sunak amongst those who said it made a difference , 21 now worse , 10 better .
The Tories are desperate to move the needle but at the moment even if some of the policy announcements were popular, voters just aren’t interested in changing their voter intention .
Have they stopped listening or don’t believe anything that Sunak proposes will see the light of day ?
Bit of both I think.
We have had a significant period of poor Tory government but the period from 2019 onwards has been egregiously bad and I think people have cottoned on. They have been found out as chancers and the public will view them accordingly.
I expect no 10 is close to full on panic mode after no signs of any post conference bounce . Indeed beneath the headline voter intention on YouGov opinions about Sunak amongst those who said it made a difference , 21 now worse , 10 better .
The Tories are desperate to move the needle but at the moment even if some of the policy announcements were popular, voters just aren’t interested in changing their voter intention .
Have they stopped listening or don’t believe anything that Sunak proposes will see the light of day ?
Once you break someone's trust (and between them, Johnson, Truss and Sunak have pretty comprehensively done that), it's very hard to win it back. Repeating the old incantations more forcefully isn't going to do it.
"...Even now, raising the issue of children with Tories of the Cameroon era gets one dismissed as a crank. Why go to the vast expense of gestating the next generation of taxpayers when you can, to quote one former spad, “just import people”?..."
"...There is never going to come a moment when the electorally-dominant older generation are suddenly up for paying for things, nor when business decides that it’s finally a good time for them to invest in training and higher wages and otherwise internalise a load of costs they’ve been palming off for decades...If you want something to happen in the long term, you have at some point to start doing the work in the here and now..."
"...After 13 contorted years, British conservatives, whether they are members of parliament, members of the party, or its outriders in the media, no longer know what conservatism is. Everything has been tried – David Cameron’s bougie nudge-theory paternalism; Theresa May’s Home Counties authoritarianism; Boris Johnson’s One Nation Global Britain boosterism; Liz Truss’s kamikaze Thatcherism – and everything has failed..."
That can all be applied to Labour. What do they stand for? What are they gonna do? How are they different to the Tories?
Right now they are a blank slate onto which millions are fervently projecting. That will end the day Labour are elected and actually have to do stuff. It might be a nasty surprise for many Brits
There's little 'fervent projection' going on. There's just a strong general feeling that the Tories have lost the plot and (for their own sake as much as ours) need to be ejected from office.
As I posted earlier this morning, its all been a long term ruse in order to protect the Union by getting Tories to vote Labour in Scotland. A genius, five moves ahead plan from Cummings, with Cameron, May, Boris, Truss and Rishi all playing their parts pretending to make a series of ridiculous and self damaging decisions. It is only now us mortals can't start to put together Dom's genius.
I expect no 10 is close to full on panic mode after no signs of any post conference bounce . Indeed beneath the headline voter intention on YouGov opinions about Sunak amongst those who said it made a difference , 21 now worse , 10 better .
The Tories are desperate to move the needle but at the moment even if some of the policy announcements were popular, voters just aren’t interested in changing their voter intention .
Have they stopped listening or don’t believe anything that Sunak proposes will see the light of day ?
Once you break someone's trust (and between them, Johnson, Truss and Sunak have pretty comprehensively done that), it's very hard to win it back. Repeating the old incantations more forcefully isn't going to do it.
I expect no 10 is close to full on panic mode after no signs of any post conference bounce . Indeed beneath the headline voter intention on YouGov opinions about Sunak amongst those who said it made a difference , 21 now worse , 10 better .
The Tories are desperate to move the needle but at the moment even if some of the policy announcements were popular, voters just aren’t interested in changing their voter intention .
Have they stopped listening or don’t believe anything that Sunak proposes will see the light of day ?
Once you break someone's trust (and between them, Johnson, Truss and Sunak have pretty comprehensively done that), it's very hard to win it back. Repeating the old incantations more forcefully isn't going to do it.
I expect no 10 is close to full on panic mode after no signs of any post conference bounce . Indeed beneath the headline voter intention on YouGov opinions about Sunak amongst those who said it made a difference , 21 now worse , 10 better .
The Tories are desperate to move the needle but at the moment even if some of the policy announcements were popular, voters just aren’t interested in changing their voter intention .
Have they stopped listening or don’t believe anything that Sunak proposes will see the light of day ?
Once you break someone's trust (and between them, Johnson, Truss and Sunak have pretty comprehensively done that), it's very hard to win it back. Repeating the old incantations more forcefully isn't going to do it.
Conference bounce going well.
Looks like cancelling HS2, smoking, A levels, and bully XL dogs is not hitting the sweet spot.
I expect no 10 is close to full on panic mode after no signs of any post conference bounce . Indeed beneath the headline voter intention on YouGov opinions about Sunak amongst those who said it made a difference , 21 now worse , 10 better .
The Tories are desperate to move the needle but at the moment even if some of the policy announcements were popular, voters just aren’t interested in changing their voter intention .
Have they stopped listening or don’t believe anything that Sunak proposes will see the light of day ?
Once you break someone's trust (and between them, Johnson, Truss and Sunak have pretty comprehensively done that), it's very hard to win it back. Repeating the old incantations more forcefully isn't going to do it.
Conference bounce going well.
Looks like cancelling HS2, smoking, A levels, and bully XL dogs is not hitting the sweet spot.
Even if the policies were any good, it doesn't matter as long as the public don't like the cut of your jib. And that's a more intuitive, organic process.
Corbyn had lots of popular policies. But by the end, the Great British Public just didn't want him.
Been pondering again whom I should vote for around here. It's been a two horse race for a long, long time apart from in the early 2000s when it was a 1 horse race. I'd previously come to the conclusion that it had to be SNP because my priority was to throw the useless sack of shit Duguid and the Tories in general out.
I still can't imagine that anyone else is the main challenger but last night's result was so bad for the SNP I'm wondering.
I expect no 10 is close to full on panic mode after no signs of any post conference bounce . Indeed beneath the headline voter intention on YouGov opinions about Sunak amongst those who said it made a difference , 21 now worse , 10 better .
The Tories are desperate to move the needle but at the moment even if some of the policy announcements were popular, voters just aren’t interested in changing their voter intention .
Have they stopped listening or don’t believe anything that Sunak proposes will see the light of day ?
Once you break someone's trust (and between them, Johnson, Truss and Sunak have pretty comprehensively done that), it's very hard to win it back. Repeating the old incantations more forcefully isn't going to do it.
Conference bounce going well.
Looks like cancelling HS2, smoking, A levels, and bully XL dogs is not hitting the sweet spot.
To be honest if I were a Tory I should be relieved the conference bounce wasn't any more negative.
Been pondering again whom I should vote for around here. It's been a two horse race for a long, long time apart from in the early 2000s when it was a 1 horse race. I'd previously come to the conclusion that it had to be SNP because my priority was to throw the useless sack of shit Duguid and the Tories in general out.
I still can't imagine that anyone else is the main challenger but last night's result was so bad for the SNP I'm wondering.
Been pondering again whom I should vote for around here. It's been a two horse race for a long, long time apart from in the early 2000s when it was a 1 horse race. I'd previously come to the conclusion that it had to be SNP because my priority was to throw the useless sack of shit Duguid and the Tories in general out.
I still can't imagine that anyone else is the main challenger but last night's result was so bad for the SNP I'm wondering.
Last election: Con 50% SNP 40% LD 5% Lab 4%
Thoughts?
One of the worst seats to live in if you're sympathetic to Lab or the LDs.
Been pondering again whom I should vote for around here. It's been a two horse race for a long, long time apart from in the early 2000s when it was a 1 horse race. I'd previously come to the conclusion that it had to be SNP because my priority was to throw the useless sack of shit Duguid and the Tories in general out.
I still can't imagine that anyone else is the main challenger but last night's result was so bad for the SNP I'm wondering.
Last election: Con 50% SNP 40% LD 5% Lab 4%
Thoughts?
What happened in the local council elections? Any other evidence of prior or present electoral strength from Labour or Lib Dems?
Been pondering again whom I should vote for around here. It's been a two horse race for a long, long time apart from in the early 2000s when it was a 1 horse race. I'd previously come to the conclusion that it had to be SNP because my priority was to throw the useless sack of shit Duguid and the Tories in general out.
I still can't imagine that anyone else is the main challenger but last night's result was so bad for the SNP I'm wondering.
Last election: Con 50% SNP 40% LD 5% Lab 4%
Thoughts?
What happened in the local council elections? Any other evidence of prior or present electoral strength from Labour or Lib Dems?
Labour are nowhere and have always been. Best they've had around here in my lifetime is 14%. Even when they ruled most of Scotland, they're also-rans round here.
Been pondering again whom I should vote for around here. It's been a two horse race for a long, long time apart from in the early 2000s when it was a 1 horse race. I'd previously come to the conclusion that it had to be SNP because my priority was to throw the useless sack of shit Duguid and the Tories in general out.
I still can't imagine that anyone else is the main challenger but last night's result was so bad for the SNP I'm wondering.
Last election: Con 50% SNP 40% LD 5% Lab 4%
Thoughts?
What happened in the local council elections? Any other evidence of prior or present electoral strength from Labour or Lib Dems?
Labour are nowhere and have always been. Best they've had around here in my lifetime is 14%. Even when they ruled most of Scotland, they're also-rans round here.
Looks like it'll be a straight SNP/Tory battleground to me. Would probably be the sort of constituency the Lib Dems would surge in before Labour though.
Been pondering again whom I should vote for around here. It's been a two horse race for a long, long time apart from in the early 2000s when it was a 1 horse race. I'd previously come to the conclusion that it had to be SNP because my priority was to throw the useless sack of shit Duguid and the Tories in general out.
I still can't imagine that anyone else is the main challenger but last night's result was so bad for the SNP I'm wondering.
Last election: Con 50% SNP 40% LD 5% Lab 4%
Thoughts?
What happened in the local council elections? Any other evidence of prior or present electoral strength from Labour or Lib Dems?
Seems to be split. The Lib Dems have some historical strength in the Banff and Buchan part of the planned constituency, and Labour are stronger in the Moray parts.
Some strong showings from Independents in various local elections too. Perhaps the Lib Dems would have a better chance of scooping up those votes in a Westminster election?
If the Tories and SNP both shed lots of votes then you could see either Labour or Lib Dems with half a chance of coming through the middle and winning on a low share. Perhaps it's simply a matter of seeing which candidate from the two parties is best and manages to actually run a local campaign, rather than have their activists encouraged to contest target seats elsewhere.
Been pondering again whom I should vote for around here. It's been a two horse race for a long, long time apart from in the early 2000s when it was a 1 horse race. I'd previously come to the conclusion that it had to be SNP because my priority was to throw the useless sack of shit Duguid and the Tories in general out.
I still can't imagine that anyone else is the main challenger but last night's result was so bad for the SNP I'm wondering.
Last election: Con 50% SNP 40% LD 5% Lab 4%
Thoughts?
Have a look at my earlier post with the [edit!] Prof Curtice discussion and the Blair Foundation report links.
A private psychiatrist charges £360 per hour. Let's say they see 4 people per day. That's £1440.
Or £7200 per week. Maybe £345,000 per year.
Now I know there are various costs they will need to pay. Rental space, a (shared?) secretary, insurance. But even so, that seems like an awful lot of money. I wonder what the costs would be in similar countries.
"A mother-of-three has been left fearing for her children's safety after a violent XL Bully-type dog got into her garden and killed the family's beloved pet cat – in violent scenes caught on CCTV.
Nima Begum, 40, was in her house when she heard a commotion outside and saw a man wrestling with the powerful animal.
He kept shouting 'Your cat is fine', even though his pet's jaws were covered in blood.
Ms Begum rushed outside and found her terrified cat Kiwi cowering in a tree, which she managed to get down with the help of a passer-by. But the tabby died before she could get her to a vet."
This is driving me nuts. How much longer is the government going to wait? Get a fucking move on. Just order immediate muzzling NOW. The whole country wants it. Only 10% oppose
While they dither the attacks will continue and soon enough we will be faced with an utterly hideous video of a tiny child being eaten alive
Muzzle these fuckers. Give the owners a slapping
Put it down as another useless intervention by our PM.
The Tories can go fuck themselves. Everything they do is performative. Nothing ever actually happens. Apart from cancelling HS2
If there is an issue with muzzling these dogs then get on TV and explain the problem. What is it?? In the last three days a man has been killed and a toddler nearly lost a leg
Still not as many deaths as the motor car so espoused by Mr Sunak. His refusal to go to 20mph zones and his ban of LTNs is going to kill many more people.
Not that that is any excuse for the dogs. The argument may be that the existing laws are sufficient in principle - dangerous dogs out of control in public and so on. Though we need a clear statement one way or another, as you say. And if they are sufficient, why do we still have the DDA on the statute book banning some breeds?
But the thing is, after the next inevitable and horrifying video of someone being mauled to death, the government will suddenly discover that it CAN do something immediately. In response to the public outcry. Meaning their immobility now is pitiful complacency or incompetence or thanks to some disgraceful lobbying by the RSPCA
I hope I’m wrong and this video never arrives
Quite so, on both points. Though it's not just the RSPCA, I am sure. There is a real threat to more politically influential owners' dogs. Remember Malmesbury's - Or at least I think it was him - suggestion that only the more working class breeds got it in the original DDA. not the equally dangerous but more upper class ones.
It wasn't me, but that kind of misses the point.
If you ask medics, the really damaging doc attacks they deal with generally come from a small number of breeds. Think plastic surgery to rebuild arms and faces.
There are other breeds that attack, but the bulk of the serious injuries....
A private psychiatrist charges £360 per hour. Let's say they see 4 people per day. That's £1440.
Or £7200 per week. Maybe £345,000 per year.
Now I know there are various costs they will need to pay. Rental space, a (shared?) secretary, insurance. But even so, that seems like an awful lot of money. I wonder what the costs would be in similar countries.
Not so different from a lawyer, whose time is easily £240 or more/hour but will also include preparatiom and paperwork, which the shrink does not (I imagine).
A private psychiatrist charges £360 per hour. Let's say they see 4 people per day. That's £1440.
Or £7200 per week. Maybe £345,000 per year.
Now I know there are various costs they will need to pay. Rental space, a (shared?) secretary, insurance. But even so, that seems like an awful lot of money. I wonder what the costs would be in similar countries.
In other news, for those of you that follow cycling, the mega-merger between Jumbo Visma and Soudal QuickStep is apparently off. Though not soon enough to have prevented Bora Hansgrohe from announcing they've signed Primoz Roglic today.
(I realise most of these words will mean nothing to 95% of PB. Basically they're all European companies who make floors or standard-size Eurogrommets or something and sponsor a cycling team.)
Been pondering again whom I should vote for around here. It's been a two horse race for a long, long time apart from in the early 2000s when it was a 1 horse race. I'd previously come to the conclusion that it had to be SNP because my priority was to throw the useless sack of shit Duguid and the Tories in general out.
I still can't imagine that anyone else is the main challenger but last night's result was so bad for the SNP I'm wondering.
Last election: Con 50% SNP 40% LD 5% Lab 4%
Thoughts?
Have a look at my earlier post with the [edit!] Prof Curtice discussion and the Blair Foundation report links.
Sorry, I can't find it, mind highlighting it to me?
Looking at those POTUS polls, one way Biden is in trouble is on immigration
After campaigning in 2019-20 against Trump’s absurd and “racist” border wall, and ceasing construction of it, he is now… building the wall
“CNN: Biden administration bypasses 26 federal laws to build additional border wall in South Texas
Absolutely amazing how Dems' immigration views and rhetoric radically changed the second large numbers of undocumented migrants arrived in blue cities:”
Not a great look. It appears to be a vindication of Trump perhaps because it is
Yes, I think the Dems fucked up on illegal immigration. They opposed the Republicans over the border wall*, because Trump, not because it was a genuinely popular policy.
They've also been hit (as has Sunak and pretty much every incumbent government) by rising interest rates causing a slowing economy. (And If Trump has won in 2020, he'd be being hit by rising interest rates too.)
Those are where the Dems are weakest.
By contrast, abortion is where the Republicans are weakest. It's staggering that whereever - even the Reddest of States - there have been referendums on abortion, then there have been clear votes to keep it legal, at least to the 16-20 week level. And yet Republicans legislatures keep trying to reduce it to 6 weeks (which is really 2 weeks), and to remove rape and incest exceptions (which are both incredibly popular).
If the economy revives, and there's still a year ahead of us, then I think the Dems should be clear favourites. If it worsens, and becomes a proper recession, then the voters are likely to say "well, things were better under Trump" and vote for him.
* The US's unwillingness to actually do anything that would make a serious difference to illegal immigration is of course the craziest thing.
"A mother-of-three has been left fearing for her children's safety after a violent XL Bully-type dog got into her garden and killed the family's beloved pet cat – in violent scenes caught on CCTV.
Nima Begum, 40, was in her house when she heard a commotion outside and saw a man wrestling with the powerful animal.
He kept shouting 'Your cat is fine', even though his pet's jaws were covered in blood.
Ms Begum rushed outside and found her terrified cat Kiwi cowering in a tree, which she managed to get down with the help of a passer-by. But the tabby died before she could get her to a vet."
This is driving me nuts. How much longer is the government going to wait? Get a fucking move on. Just order immediate muzzling NOW. The whole country wants it. Only 10% oppose
While they dither the attacks will continue and soon enough we will be faced with an utterly hideous video of a tiny child being eaten alive
Muzzle these fuckers. Give the owners a slapping
Put it down as another useless intervention by our PM.
The Tories can go fuck themselves. Everything they do is performative. Nothing ever actually happens. Apart from cancelling HS2
If there is an issue with muzzling these dogs then get on TV and explain the problem. What is it?? In the last three days a man has been killed and a toddler nearly lost a leg
Still not as many deaths as the motor car so espoused by Mr Sunak. His refusal to go to 20mph zones and his ban of LTNs is going to kill many more people.
Not that that is any excuse for the dogs. The argument may be that the existing laws are sufficient in principle - dangerous dogs out of control in public and so on. Though we need a clear statement one way or another, as you say. And if they are sufficient, why do we still have the DDA on the statute book banning some breeds?
But the thing is, after the next inevitable and horrifying video of someone being mauled to death, the government will suddenly discover that it CAN do something immediately. In response to the public outcry. Meaning their immobility now is pitiful complacency or incompetence or thanks to some disgraceful lobbying by the RSPCA
I hope I’m wrong and this video never arrives
What strikes me is how delusional a lot of dog owners are about their pets. Quite often, when you're going for a walk in a park, a dog comes running towards you, and the dog owner shouts out to the dog to stop doing so, and 90% of the time the dog doesn't listen to them and continues to run towards you, much to the "shock" of the owner. Each time, they have a touching belief that the dog will do what they want, not what it wants to do.
Yes XL Bully's are lethal and should be banned immediately. Yes flaws in the Dangerous Dogs Act should be addressed, and any new legislation should be capable of being quickly amended to deal with the new dangerous cross breeds of such dogs that would inevitably emerge if the legislation did not evolve. I have absolutely no time for people who wish to own these particular dangerous breeds. The issue of whether or not they are well trained is immaterial - you don't allow someone to keep a sub-machine gun at home just because they don't load it. There are countless other breeds of dogs to choose that will never pose a threat whatsoever, and which enrich the lives of all who come into contact with them.
However, what worries me is how quickly a justified concern about a prolonged lack of action and legislation to deal with a public threat posed by a very specific breed of dog can turn into unjustified and ill-informed call for action against "dogs" in general. The problem is not with dogs in general, it's with the specific breed.
I'd also mention that I know people who own these kinds of dogs in Peru.
They are quite specifically weapon systems. You set the dog on the intruder and that keeps them occupied while you get the gun to shoot the intruder.
Then, when the police arrives you give them the money, and they write it up as "Heroic home owner foils dangerous robber".
Edit: They are generally kept caged up. Imagine a pet shark....
Been pondering again whom I should vote for around here. It's been a two horse race for a long, long time apart from in the early 2000s when it was a 1 horse race. I'd previously come to the conclusion that it had to be SNP because my priority was to throw the useless sack of shit Duguid and the Tories in general out.
I still can't imagine that anyone else is the main challenger but last night's result was so bad for the SNP I'm wondering.
Last election: Con 50% SNP 40% LD 5% Lab 4%
Thoughts?
I don't know what your attitude to the indy question is, but if it were me (I'm normally a Lib Dem voter) then notwithstanding my distaste for the nationalists I would consider the fact they are likely to lose seats overall to Labour, while the Tories are deserving of a thorough whipping, hold my nose and vote SNP.
"A mother-of-three has been left fearing for her children's safety after a violent XL Bully-type dog got into her garden and killed the family's beloved pet cat – in violent scenes caught on CCTV.
Nima Begum, 40, was in her house when she heard a commotion outside and saw a man wrestling with the powerful animal.
He kept shouting 'Your cat is fine', even though his pet's jaws were covered in blood.
Ms Begum rushed outside and found her terrified cat Kiwi cowering in a tree, which she managed to get down with the help of a passer-by. But the tabby died before she could get her to a vet."
This is driving me nuts. How much longer is the government going to wait? Get a fucking move on. Just order immediate muzzling NOW. The whole country wants it. Only 10% oppose
While they dither the attacks will continue and soon enough we will be faced with an utterly hideous video of a tiny child being eaten alive
Muzzle these fuckers. Give the owners a slapping
Put it down as another useless intervention by our PM.
The Tories can go fuck themselves. Everything they do is performative. Nothing ever actually happens. Apart from cancelling HS2
If there is an issue with muzzling these dogs then get on TV and explain the problem. What is it?? In the last three days a man has been killed and a toddler nearly lost a leg
Still not as many deaths as the motor car so espoused by Mr Sunak. His refusal to go to 20mph zones and his ban of LTNs is going to kill many more people.
Not that that is any excuse for the dogs. The argument may be that the existing laws are sufficient in principle - dangerous dogs out of control in public and so on. Though we need a clear statement one way or another, as you say. And if they are sufficient, why do we still have the DDA on the statute book banning some breeds?
But the thing is, after the next inevitable and horrifying video of someone being mauled to death, the government will suddenly discover that it CAN do something immediately. In response to the public outcry. Meaning their immobility now is pitiful complacency or incompetence or thanks to some disgraceful lobbying by the RSPCA
I hope I’m wrong and this video never arrives
Quite so, on both points. Though it's not just the RSPCA, I am sure. There is a real threat to more politically influential owners' dogs. Remember Malmesbury's - Or at least I think it was him - suggestion that only the more working class breeds got it in the original DDA. not the equally dangerous but more upper class ones.
It wasn't me, but that kind of misses the point.
If you ask medics, the really damaging doc attacks they deal with generally come from a small number of breeds. Think plastic surgery to rebuild arms and faces.
There are other breeds that attack, but the bulk of the serious injuries....
'damaging doc attacks' - that's a thought. And it does happen.
I expect no 10 is close to full on panic mode after no signs of any post conference bounce . Indeed beneath the headline voter intention on YouGov opinions about Sunak amongst those who said it made a difference , 21 now worse , 10 better .
The Tories are desperate to move the needle but at the moment even if some of the policy announcements were popular, voters just aren’t interested in changing their voter intention .
Have they stopped listening or don’t believe anything that Sunak proposes will see the light of day ?
Once you break someone's trust (and between them, Johnson, Truss and Sunak have pretty comprehensively done that), it's very hard to win it back. Repeating the old incantations more forcefully isn't going to do it.
Conference bounce going well.
Looks like cancelling HS2, smoking, A levels, and bully XL dogs is not hitting the sweet spot.
I think the conference bounce will happen with a bit more of a lag, as the meaning of the announcements this week properly sets in. The downward bounce that is.
"A mother-of-three has been left fearing for her children's safety after a violent XL Bully-type dog got into her garden and killed the family's beloved pet cat – in violent scenes caught on CCTV.
Nima Begum, 40, was in her house when she heard a commotion outside and saw a man wrestling with the powerful animal.
He kept shouting 'Your cat is fine', even though his pet's jaws were covered in blood.
Ms Begum rushed outside and found her terrified cat Kiwi cowering in a tree, which she managed to get down with the help of a passer-by. But the tabby died before she could get her to a vet."
This is driving me nuts. How much longer is the government going to wait? Get a fucking move on. Just order immediate muzzling NOW. The whole country wants it. Only 10% oppose
While they dither the attacks will continue and soon enough we will be faced with an utterly hideous video of a tiny child being eaten alive
Muzzle these fuckers. Give the owners a slapping
Put it down as another useless intervention by our PM.
The Tories can go fuck themselves. Everything they do is performative. Nothing ever actually happens. Apart from cancelling HS2
If there is an issue with muzzling these dogs then get on TV and explain the problem. What is it?? In the last three days a man has been killed and a toddler nearly lost a leg
Still not as many deaths as the motor car so espoused by Mr Sunak. His refusal to go to 20mph zones and his ban of LTNs is going to kill many more people.
Not that that is any excuse for the dogs. The argument may be that the existing laws are sufficient in principle - dangerous dogs out of control in public and so on. Though we need a clear statement one way or another, as you say. And if they are sufficient, why do we still have the DDA on the statute book banning some breeds?
But the thing is, after the next inevitable and horrifying video of someone being mauled to death, the government will suddenly discover that it CAN do something immediately. In response to the public outcry. Meaning their immobility now is pitiful complacency or incompetence or thanks to some disgraceful lobbying by the RSPCA
I hope I’m wrong and this video never arrives
Quite so, on both points. Though it's not just the RSPCA, I am sure. There is a real threat to more politically influential owners' dogs. Remember Malmesbury's - Or at least I think it was him - suggestion that only the more working class breeds got it in the original DDA. not the equally dangerous but more upper class ones.
It wasn't me, but that kind of misses the point.
If you ask medics, the really damaging doc attacks they deal with generally come from a small number of breeds. Think plastic surgery to rebuild arms and faces.
There are other breeds that attack, but the bulk of the serious injuries....
Quite: the ones with large jaws and heavy musculature. Yet nothing seems to be happening - least of all in the way of announcements. Or if so I missed it. Ms Coffey would ne the one to listen to at the Mancunian conference, it being DEFRA's job. But all I can find on a quick check is this about gun control:
Been pondering again whom I should vote for around here. It's been a two horse race for a long, long time apart from in the early 2000s when it was a 1 horse race. I'd previously come to the conclusion that it had to be SNP because my priority was to throw the useless sack of shit Duguid and the Tories in general out.
I still can't imagine that anyone else is the main challenger but last night's result was so bad for the SNP I'm wondering.
Last election: Con 50% SNP 40% LD 5% Lab 4%
Thoughts?
The CON vote may fall a bit but SNP will fall more. LAB and LD have no chance though so you (and Rochdale) will almost certainly keep your current MP.
Been pondering again whom I should vote for around here. It's been a two horse race for a long, long time apart from in the early 2000s when it was a 1 horse race. I'd previously come to the conclusion that it had to be SNP because my priority was to throw the useless sack of shit Duguid and the Tories in general out.
I still can't imagine that anyone else is the main challenger but last night's result was so bad for the SNP I'm wondering.
Last election: Con 50% SNP 40% LD 5% Lab 4%
Thoughts?
Move house.
Alternatively just vote with your conscience, for the party who policies you rate best, and accept your vote will not swing a seat. Tories are going to be out next time regardless of your vote (or mine - safest of safe Tory seats).
Comments
In terms of 2024, it doesn't really matter- there aren't many seats in England where it isn't blindingly obvious who the main anti-Conservative challenger is.
As for race, the similarities in DNA etc are far, far greater than the differences.
A few years from now people will look back on 2016 - 2024 as a dark time. You don’t need me to list them but just about everything that could go wrong, has. It has been a nightmare. A miserable period.
It’s not that I expect Starmer’s Labour to deliver utopia. It’s just that, by circumstance and luck, this country will settle down once more.
Beyond everything else, this will be the Conservative Party’s hardest task: to recast themselves as a party of aspiration, hope, enjoyment, and happiness.
I am expecting the Labour Party to be in power for 15 years, or more. Many of us will no longer be alive the next time a Conservative Party is elected to power in this country.
And while Trump is running, it's quite hard to see Biden giving way to anyone (or anyone seriously challenging him).
The more interesting question is what the hell the Democrats should do if and when Trump's legal problems remove him from the equation.
If that were to happen, it would leave very little time indeed for anyone to challenge or replace Biden.
So I was probably talking rubbish.
In American terms the region feels more mid-west / flyover state vs the blue wall (New England) or rural West Country (Pacific NW).
There will be a home for right of centre voters in the coming years. Whether the Tory Party is it, remains to be seen.
But the demise of political parties has been oft forecast over the years. How many times in the last 8 years has the death of the Labour Party been confidently predicted?
It’s just that he clearly has no intention of being that man. He isn’t prepared to make tough decisions about the pensions triple lock, or housing, or infrastructure - not when he can scrap a major capex project and spent almost a quarter of the savings on fixing potholes.
1) A plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic Of China border. Which side do you bury the survivors?
2) Why is Nick Palmer a God?
3) @TSE is more famous for his modesty or his quiet taste in shoes?
4) How many @SeanT are there?
That said, there are limits to what parties can do at this point before polling day. Postal votes have gone out and no doubt have mostly been returned by now. Nearly EVERYONE has been canvassed by Lab and LD at least twice, unless they're literally inaccessible. We know what everyone says they'll do. The battle now is over the minority who said they weren't sure, were merely "not Tory", or intended to vote tactically, and there's some scope to influence them, but a point at which yet another visit merely pisses them off.
What does influence floating voters is the national narrative, and I think the market is correctly moving to reflect Rutherglen and the expectation of Labour's conference being better than the Tory conference. A reasonable floating voter observing those and seeing the high level of local activity will tend to discount the LibDem claim that only they can beat the Tories. So the LibDem vote is likely to be mostly non-tactical - people who positively prefer them. I can see that being up from 12.6% last time, but not to the point of winning.
Not that that is any excuse for the dogs. The argument may be that the existing laws are sufficient in principle - dangerous dogs out of control in public and so on. Though we need a clear statement one way or another, as you say. And if they are sufficient, why do we still have the DDA on the statute book banning some breeds?
https://twitter.com/NZNationalParty/status/1710172805416038633
I think the Conservatives are in a bigger hole than that already, and they haven't hit rock bottom yet. If you doubt me, suppose that Sunak decided to bugger off to California tomorrow, and by some miracle, Mordaunt got the gig. Does she have enough non-toxic MPs to run a government? Not really. And that's before Braverman has her go at repelling anyone more centrist than her.
It feels crazy to think that a party of government is committing suicide before our eyes. And it may well not happen. But it's much more likely than it should be.
I hope I’m wrong and this video never arrives
Latest US poll shows Trump leads circa two to one over Biden on dealing with inflation, the economy and immigration. Gulp.
11:18 AM · Oct 6, 2023
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https://x.com/afneil/status/1710237999382908932?s=20
But they is a serious point here: XL Bullys are regularly smashing through garden fences to attack pets and people. Muzzling in public isn't going to cut it.
"In September 2023, she told media that if SNP members did not nominate her as the candidate in the upcoming general election, she would consider resigning to call an immediate by-election.[30]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_Cameron#2023_Reselection_contest
https://www.itv.com/watch/this-morning/1a1960
After campaigning in 2019-20 against Trump’s absurd and “racist” border wall, and ceasing construction of it, he is now… building the wall
“CNN: Biden administration bypasses 26 federal laws to build additional border wall in South Texas
Absolutely amazing how Dems' immigration views and rhetoric radically changed the second large numbers of undocumented migrants arrived in blue cities:”
https://x.com/ggreenwald/status/1709961152736702926?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Not a great look. It appears to be a vindication of Trump perhaps because it is
“Let's get Britain's future back”. Completely meaningless drivel
Will it be Reform/UKIP? Not while the Tories are stealing all their lines.
The Lib Dems then? Are they positioning themselves to be a centre-right opposition to Labour? I don't see it.
Some new party then? Rory Stewart and a blue SDP will create a new conservative party?
It will be the Tories because of FPTP, and because the Tories in opposition will block off the chance of being eclipsed by a party to their right.
https://untothevoid.substack.com/p/weve-tried-nothing-and-were-all-out
"...Even now, raising the issue of children with Tories of the Cameroon era gets one dismissed as a crank. Why go to the vast expense of gestating the next generation of taxpayers when you can, to quote one former spad, “just import people”?..."
"...There is never going to come a moment when the electorally-dominant older generation are suddenly up for paying for things, nor when business decides that it’s finally a good time for them to invest in training and higher wages and otherwise internalise a load of costs they’ve been palming off for decades...If you want something to happen in the long term, you have at some point to start doing the work in the here and now..."
No matter how well trained your dog is he has a will of his own and that is why the Bully XL is so dangerous. Our dog is harmless as he is just very friendly and only weighs 14 kg, but I still wouldn't leave him alone with a baby and keep him on a lead in the presence of a frail or frightened person.
Right now they are a blank slate onto which millions are fervently projecting. That will end the day Labour are elected and actually have to do stuff. It might be a nasty surprise for many Brits
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHqRcUdjQfM
Oh wait, no I'm not. Bye troll, see you tomorrow morning.
Yes XL Bully's are lethal and should be banned immediately. Yes flaws in the Dangerous Dogs Act should be addressed, and any new legislation should be capable of being quickly amended to deal with the new dangerous cross breeds of such dogs that would inevitably emerge if the legislation did not evolve. I have absolutely no time for people who wish to own these particular dangerous breeds. The issue of whether or not they are well trained is immaterial - you don't allow someone to keep a sub-machine gun at home just because they don't load it. There are countless other breeds of dogs to choose that will never pose a threat whatsoever, and which enrich the lives of all who come into contact with them.
However, what worries me is how quickly a justified concern about a prolonged lack of action and legislation to deal with a public threat posed by a very specific breed of dog can turn into unjustified and ill-informed call for action against "dogs" in general. The problem is not with dogs in general, it's with the specific breed.
The Tories are desperate to move the needle but at the moment even if some of the policy announcements were popular, voters just aren’t interested in changing their voter intention .
Have they stopped listening or don’t believe anything that Sunak proposes will see the light of day ?
That’s not to say that they have a radical transformative agenda, but who in the West does - at least one that stands up to scrutiny?
Check out the replies to this otherwise anodyne Twitter post (nb NOT Trans Pennine Express).
Faster trains will mean longer bedtime stories. So, we will reduce journey times between Manchester and York.
https://twitter.com/theTRUpgrade/status/1696897455650996401
We have had a significant period of poor Tory government but the period from 2019 onwards has been egregiously bad and I think people have cottoned on. They have been found out as chancers and the public will view them accordingly.
NEW POLL: Labour lead by 19 points:
Lab: 45% (nc)
Con: 26% (-1)
Lib Dem: 11% (+1)
Reform: 6% (nc)
Green: 6% (nc)
SNP: 3% (nc)
Others: 3%
https://x.com/techneUK/status/1710218436167520527
Once you break someone's trust (and between them, Johnson, Truss and Sunak have pretty comprehensively done that), it's very hard to win it back. Repeating the old incantations more forcefully isn't going to do it.
Keith is a very lucky general.
Looks like cancelling HS2, smoking, A levels, and bully XL dogs is not hitting the sweet spot.
Corbyn had lots of popular policies. But by the end, the Great British Public just didn't want him.
I'd previously come to the conclusion that it had to be SNP because my priority was to throw the useless sack of shit Duguid and the Tories in general out.
I still can't imagine that anyone else is the main challenger but last night's result was so bad for the SNP I'm wondering.
Last election: Con 50% SNP 40% LD 5% Lab 4%
Thoughts?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Aberdeenshire_Council_election
Labour are nowhere and have always been. Best they've had around here in my lifetime is 14%. Even when they ruled most of Scotland, they're also-rans round here.
Some strong showings from Independents in various local elections too. Perhaps the Lib Dems would have a better chance of scooping up those votes in a Westminster election?
If the Tories and SNP both shed lots of votes then you could see either Labour or Lib Dems with half a chance of coming through the middle and winning on a low share. Perhaps it's simply a matter of seeing which candidate from the two parties is best and manages to actually run a local campaign, rather than have their activists encouraged to contest target seats elsewhere.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/66854208
A private psychiatrist charges £360 per hour. Let's say they see 4 people per day. That's £1440.
Or £7200 per week.
Maybe £345,000 per year.
Now I know there are various costs they will need to pay. Rental space, a (shared?) secretary, insurance. But even so, that seems like an awful lot of money. I wonder what the costs would be in similar countries.
If you ask medics, the really damaging doc attacks they deal with generally come from a small number of breeds. Think plastic surgery to rebuild arms and faces.
There are other breeds that attack, but the bulk of the serious injuries....
(I realise most of these words will mean nothing to 95% of PB. Basically they're all European companies who make floors or standard-size Eurogrommets or something and sponsor a cycling team.)
They've also been hit (as has Sunak and pretty much every incumbent government) by rising interest rates causing a slowing economy. (And If Trump has won in 2020, he'd be being hit by rising interest rates too.)
Those are where the Dems are weakest.
By contrast, abortion is where the Republicans are weakest. It's staggering that whereever - even the Reddest of States - there have been referendums on abortion, then there have been clear votes to keep it legal, at least to the 16-20 week level. And yet Republicans legislatures keep trying to reduce it to 6 weeks (which is really 2 weeks), and to remove rape and incest exceptions (which are both incredibly popular).
If the economy revives, and there's still a year ahead of us, then I think the Dems should be clear favourites. If it worsens, and becomes a proper recession, then the voters are likely to say "well, things were better under Trump" and vote for him.
* The US's unwillingness to actually do anything that would make a serious difference to illegal immigration is of course the craziest thing.
They are quite specifically weapon systems. You set the dog on the intruder and that keeps them occupied while you get the gun to shoot the intruder.
Then, when the police arrives you give them the money, and they write it up as "Heroic home owner foils dangerous robber".
Edit: They are generally kept caged up. Imagine a pet shark....
Still sticking with your projections for a Tory resurgence and GE victory next year?
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-cabinet-minister-boasts-blocked-31096850
Main speech has a different kind of dog in it, that's all ("dogged determination").
https://www.ukpol.co.uk/therese-coffey-2023-speech-to-conservative-party-conference/