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LAB strong favourites to gain Mid-Beds – politicalbetting.com
LAB strong favourites to gain Mid-Beds – politicalbetting.com
After the LAB success in Scotland the party has big hopes of gaining the next by-election to come up – Mid Beds a week on Thursday.
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SKS only has to campaign on saving the cuddly Bully, S, M, L, XL or XXl, doesn't matter, it's sewn up.
(Obvious logic fail there. But he does have a potential wedge issue.)
https://www.thenational.scot/news/23838676.scottish-independence-support-leads-support-union-report-finds/?ref=ebbn&nid=1457&u=f140ec39d500193051a33e140c12bd95&date=061023
Hmm. Interestding reading for all sides there.
In what is overall a terrible cost of living crisis for many, its good to get some unabashed good news here.
And remarkably the sky hasn't fallen despite all the concerns about 'negative equity' that people used to cry crocodile tears over when saying there needed to be a house price correction.
Hopefully home ownership rates can start to turn around and go in the right direction too with house prices falling again, just like they reached record highs after the correction in the 1990s.
They look slightly unhinged in the picture. Makes them perfect for politics.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/greens-head-to-brighton-targeting-four-seats-at-next-election/ar-AA1hLnBD?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=19614aa91fde4c26a97042cb4ca46266&ei=14
This whole notion, in the "PrOgReSsIvE aLlIaNcE" sphere that all parties are chums who sit around the campfire, holding hands, and singing Kumbayah, while all hating the tories ignores the plain truth that in many parts of the country they are visceral opponents.
No doubt people were pretty p1ssed off with towards the end, but a lot of that was over her conduct in the final few months and wouldn't have been a factor in the five elections she actually fought and won.
Not noticed anything in the forecourts yet, but since the movement only started a few days ago hopefully that feeds through too soon. Petrol is far too expensive currently.
As far as the Denisovans (who as far as we know comprised at least two separate populations as distinct from each other as they are from modern humans) are concerned, the DNA 'in common' is largely SNPs associated with the immune system.
It's a very complex subject, but large scale population differences in DNA don't bear much relation to the concept of 'race' we've had rolling around since Victorian times.
x.com
Peter Walker
@peterwalker99
Guardian deputy political editor.
Nima Begum, 40, was in her house when she heard a commotion outside and saw a man wrestling with the powerful animal.
He kept shouting 'Your cat is fine', even though his pet's jaws were covered in blood.
Ms Begum rushed outside and found her terrified cat Kiwi cowering in a tree, which she managed to get down with the help of a passer-by. But the tabby died before she could get her to a vet."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12601837/horrifying-moment-XL-Bully-savagely-mauls-familys-cat-death.html
My gut has always been, since the Sunak takeover, that the next general election was likely to result in a small Labour majority or even no majority at all.
But I am starting to move towards the idea that something very cataclysmic is awaiting the Tories, and that we might see an utter trouncing. I mean, even sub 150 seat style trouncing.
The polls are just not moving back to them.
There is just an air of complete hopelessness hovering around the Tory Party at the moment. It feels like people just can’t bring themselves to vote for them. Too much water under the bridge. Too much loss of faith.
Yes, Starmer is no Blair but then Sunak is no Major. People thought the country was badly run in 1996 but it was nothing like what we face now. At what point does the choice simply become that a roll of the dice with a fresh face is worth it?
On the current odds quoted I would back the LDs. Who will win is another matter.
Nah. This is the Grauniad.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/oct/06/greens-head-to-brighton-targeting-four-seats-at-next-election
There's a lot to be positive about currently, despite the negativity.
Your nearest Costco at Saints is 146.9 for standard unleaded. If you're vaguely adjacent to one of the qualifying members criteria it's worth a go to try and get membership.
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1708629197617336398?s=20
I expect P have enough but pretty good performance from the Dutch bowlers.
Link wasn't, though.
The characterisation of the piece as "happy clappy" was also wrong, I think. It was a story about how the Greens are presenting themselves.
Walker also wrote a relatively dispassionate account of Sunak's conference speech:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/oct/04/key-takeaways-rishi-sunak-tory-conference-speech
The animus against the Guardian is fair enough; each to their own.
But the critiques of it are tending a bit daft.
We bought at the peak of the market, moving into our property December last year, but despite that the drop in our equity is barely any different to what we'd have paid in rent over that period anyway - and thankfully we have a place of our own which is more important.
Some of you bet far more than I, and many of you are statisticians in a way that I am not. However, I do tend to make money on political betting and haven't lost for some years. I think @BartholomewRoberts would criticise that approach as 'gambling' is part of the point if a bet is "value."
However, I think it's worth pointing out that if something is 100/1 against it does not mean that one time in one hundred you are going to win. There is no law of averages and if you continue betting then each time you bet you are still only betting at 100/1 odds.
Of course, canny betting is mostly about using your head and spotting something that the betting market doesn't. A great example was Mike's tip on Chesham & Amersham which was based on inside knowledge.
There is no such insight this time and I suspect the reason LibDem odds this morning are drifting even further is that the betting markets have this right: a Labour win.
And this is the sort of stuff the news are Tweeting: https://nitter.net/BBCWorld/status/1559451419882700800
EDIT: Or more up to date since that one was August: https://nitter.net/general_ben/status/1709879733746311168#m
Cost of borrowing and lost interest on savings > or similar to average rental yield.
Just imagine how awful that is going to be for those defending Tokmak and the Kerch Bridge, knowing that they’re the last holdouts against the inevitable, and suffering daily losses of men and vehicles to do so?
"Til the new year" apparently
Some of you will have missed my earlier anecdote, which I offer in sincerity.
My lifelong tory voter friend in Surrey told me this week that for the first time in her life she will not be voting Conservative at the next General Election. She has literally voted Conservative for the last three decades, including 1997, 2001 etc. She cited the latest Suella Braverman outburst as the final straw.
When even your lifelong voters are giving up, you've had it.
It's that bad.
You talk of inside knowledge, thanks to your commentary I made money on the Woking locals last year.
I also backed the Lib Dems in Chesham and TIverton, I have losers too, I thought labour would hold on in Hartlepool
I think the market has moved thanks to Rutherglen. The Lib Dems are formidable campaigners. I see little value in Labour here.
I think the phrase 'supreme arrogance' can be rather turned on its head if Labour (and to use your word) 'fanatics' think this.
As for the 2nd para I totally agree. We have that in our local Surrey County by election on the same day. The contest is between Tory, LD and R4GV (indy). Any of the 3 can win. Labour have put up a candidate and are even putting out a decent leaflet. Why god knows. They will get stuffed and will damage only the LDs.
While they dither the attacks will continue and soon enough we will be faced with an utterly hideous video of a tiny child being eaten alive
Muzzle these fuckers. Give the owners a slapping
I used to do a lot of travel, mainly for work, prior to COVID.
SInce COVID I have realised just how much I don't like it and look for any excuse not to do it.
They're breaking through the Russian defences around Verbove and close to cutting off the land bridge to Crimea.
They're getting good at disabling/interrupting the Kerch bridge connection.
And they're good at using drones and missiles to hit Crimea and make Sevastopol unusable for Russia's fleet.
If Russia can't keep a fleet at Sevastopol, if they can't get reinforcements or support there, then this entire conflict was pointless.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/10/05/russian-warships-leave-annexed-crimea-amid-growing-missile-threats-reports-a82668
Happy to become Tazdamus, and be wrong.
The standout non-graduate stat is the link to Brexit voting.
Not only are 8/10 new graduates supportive of the Labour Party but it's the Conservative Party which is losing support among graduates, of all ages and the political map in this country is being redrawn.
From the FT:
https://www.ft.com/content/2b4a5e3b-3539-4991-bd54-c74fecb1a07a
An unprecedented failure and humiliation, had they just not invaded they'd have kept Crimea and had their warships in Sevastopol, now they're going backwards not forwards.
No wonder Putin's stooges are getting increasingly shrill in wanting the war to enter a stalemate.
For those whose don’t know - it was about half the reason for the Vietnam War. Turning it back into a US base would seriously bookended the war.
Third rate politician rides populist train
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/holly-willoughby-live-rishi-sunak-sends-best-wishes-to-itv-star-as-man-charged-with-kidnap-plot/ar-AA1hMf2W?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=400d07fba19d48e29bb7be881808773f&ei=16
Well done on Woking: really glad to have assisted on that.
xx
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/06/opinion/joe-biden-trump-election.html
"Most of the filing deadlines for the early primaries are approaching — Nevada and New Hampshire this month, Michigan and California and more in December. There’s still time for other Democrats to jump in the race."
" “They seem hell bent on nominating the one Democrat who would lose to Donald Trump,” Karl Rove told me recently."
Difference is I do my shopping there anyway, so it takes no extra mileage to fill up while there. Costco if I was shopping there I'd fill up at, but I don't feel like its worth my time or the petrol consumed to drive there when its not on my route.
I suspect Lab have shortened just because of yesterday's by election. That is all and that makes sense.
But when you say the value bet meme makes you smile are you really saying that if the LDs or Tories were at 100/1 for Mid Beds now you wouldn't back them even if you expected Lab to win. It would be nuts not to when you know it is a 3 horse race even if Labour are the favourites. Both would be value bets.
That is why I think people should listen to your anecdotes too about how a certain sector of the electorate is thinking,
Russian warships are retreating so they don't join the Moskva and other flagships at the bottom of the sea, but you want us to believe the Ukrainians are 'surrenduring'.
Auf wiedersehen, pet.
The AIDS generation and those immidiately afterwards were careful about sexual relationships, but the new teenagers have no such boundaries.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/uk-sexually-transmitted-infections-gonorrhoea-syphilis-sti/
If there is an issue with muzzling these dogs then get on TV and explain the problem. What is it?? In the last three days a man has been killed and a toddler nearly lost a leg