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LAB strong favourites to gain Mid-Beds – politicalbetting.com

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  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812

    Totally O/T, but very little decent tv about at the moment....Lupin Season 3 has dropped on Netflix. Always found it quite a fun show, and French isn't too hard if you speak it (the main character speaks quite slowly for a native French speaker).

    I've been quite enjoying The Hidden World of Hospitality by Tom Kerridge on BBC Iplayer. It is quite rare to get a program which actually addresses how you run a business and the challenges you face. It's not the deepest analysis but you get a picture from a wide range of different businesses and some interesting models of what is working.

    But I agree, its a thin field at the moment.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Modern Railways
    @Modern_Railways

    To brighten up everyone's Friday afternoon, here's some good news - Elizabeth Line passenger numbers keep growing. Last Thursday it carried 738,000 passengers - the highest yet in a single day. Yesterday may have been busier still - numbers awaited. Build it and they will come!
    4:17 PM · Oct 6, 2023"

    https://twitter.com/Modern_Railways/status/1710313441448136955

    So cancelling HS2 was probably a mistake then? Who knew?
    What they're not telling you is how usage has changed on the Central Line and DLR.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    FYI An extract from the today's LD email to get supporters to Mid Beds:

    "Ed Davey was knocking on doors in Barton-le-Clay this week, and he told me just how soft the Tory vote felt. Right across Mid Beds, thousands of former Tory voters, who will never back Labour, are ours for the taking - if we can get onto their doorstep in the coming days.

    The data is clearer than ever – we can win in Mid Beds. But with the vote as soft as it is, we need hundreds more of you in the constituency this weekend.

    Thank you to everyone who has been to help so far – but we need a big increase in volunteer numbers on Saturday and Sunday to make sure Emma is in pole position to win on the 19th."
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Modern Railways
    @Modern_Railways

    To brighten up everyone's Friday afternoon, here's some good news - Elizabeth Line passenger numbers keep growing. Last Thursday it carried 738,000 passengers - the highest yet in a single day. Yesterday may have been busier still - numbers awaited. Build it and they will come!
    4:17 PM · Oct 6, 2023"

    https://twitter.com/Modern_Railways/status/1710313441448136955

    So cancelling HS2 was probably a mistake then? Who knew?
    I keep trying to work out how long it'll take to pay of the £20 billion cost of building the Elizabeth Line with these types of passenger numbers, and at the moment I'm getting around 12 years, but may have made a mistake with the calculations.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    edited October 2023

    tlg86 said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "A mother-of-three has been left fearing for her children's safety after a violent XL Bully-type dog got into her garden and killed the family's beloved pet cat – in violent scenes caught on CCTV.

    Nima Begum, 40, was in her house when she heard a commotion outside and saw a man wrestling with the powerful animal.

    He kept shouting 'Your cat is fine', even though his pet's jaws were covered in blood.

    Ms Begum rushed outside and found her terrified cat Kiwi cowering in a tree, which she managed to get down with the help of a passer-by. But the tabby died before she could get her to a vet."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12601837/horrifying-moment-XL-Bully-savagely-mauls-familys-cat-death.html

    This is driving me nuts. How much longer is the government going to wait? Get a fucking move on. Just order immediate muzzling NOW. The whole country wants it. Only 10% oppose

    While they dither the attacks will continue and soon enough we will be faced with an utterly hideous video of a tiny child being eaten alive

    Muzzle these fuckers. Give the owners a slapping
    Put it down as another useless intervention by our PM.
    The Tories can go fuck themselves. Everything they do is performative. Nothing ever actually happens. Apart from cancelling HS2

    If there is an issue with muzzling these dogs then get on TV and explain the problem. What is it?? In the last three days a man has been killed and a toddler nearly lost a leg


    Still not as many deaths as the motor car so espoused by Mr Sunak. His refusal to go to 20mph zones and his ban of LTNs is going to kill many more people.

    Not that that is any excuse for the dogs. The argument may be that the existing laws are sufficient in principle - dangerous dogs out of control in public and so on. Though we need a clear statement one way or another, as you say. And if they are sufficient, why do we still have the DDA on the statute book banning some breeds?
    But the thing is, after the next inevitable and horrifying video of someone being mauled to death, the government will suddenly discover that it CAN do something immediately. In response to the public outcry. Meaning their immobility now is pitiful complacency or incompetence or thanks to some disgraceful lobbying by the RSPCA

    I hope I’m wrong and this video never arrives
    Quite so, on both points. Though it's not just the RSPCA, I am sure. There is a real threat to more politically influential owners' dogs. Remember Malmesbury's - Or at least I think it was him - suggestion that only the more working class breeds got it in the original DDA. not the equally dangerous but more upper class ones.
    It wasn't me, but that kind of misses the point.

    If you ask medics, the really damaging doc attacks they deal with generally come from a small number of breeds. Think plastic surgery to rebuild arms and faces.

    There are other breeds that attack, but the bulk of the serious injuries....
    Quite: the ones with large jaws and heavy musculature. Yet nothing seems to be happening - least of all in the way of announcements. Or if so I missed it. Ms Coffey would ne the one to listen to at the Mancunian conference, it being DEFRA's job. But all I can find on a quick check is this about gun control:

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-cabinet-minister-boasts-blocked-31096850

    Main speech has a different kind of dog in it, that's all ("dogged determination").

    https://www.ukpol.co.uk/therese-coffey-2023-speech-to-conservative-party-conference/
    The reason is standard politics.

    The reason the Dangerous Dogs act is Evul, Wrung and Stuuupid isn't the act itself. It is the concern that it grants the government carte blanche to ban type of dogs for attacking people.

    So everyone with a dog is afraid they will come for Fido.

    The result is a very vocal lobby of "don't ban any dogs" types. While they may be a minority, they are very active. See the recent petitions. This is a political red light - vocal, active minorities translate into voters.

    It seems that the majority want a ban, but are not especially fired up over it. But a very fired up minority oppose a ban.
    There may well be something in that.

    The most dangerous breed in terms of total bites is the Labrador. Of course this is absurd in one sense as there are so many - but by the same token, there must be a lot of Lanrador owners fearful that their Rover gets the needle if something ever goes wrong.

    The alternative is to look even harder at the dog's training - which is even more frightening.

    Around 1% of the electorate have signed the "XL bully [...] loves children and people in general" petition and

    Tam,worth is a particular highlight with just gone 1.5% of all voters signed up.
    See map here: https://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=643611

    And remind me, what's happening there soon?
    The XL Bully? Do people not think there's a clue in the name?

    I am not sure what I think about this. I'm currently living with my in-laws and their poorly-socialized Springer Spaniel, who I could unfortunately easily see biting someone in the wrong circumstances. It's not just the breed that can make a dog dangerous, but how well (or not) it's been trained.

    I think this might be an example where an expansion of access to civil law would bring about improvements. If it was easier for people to sue the owners of dogs for the damage they cause, and the courts would hold people liable for the damage caused by their pets, then I think that would encourage dog owners to better train their dogs, keep them under better control when in public, choose more placid pets and provide remedy when these steps fail.

    I don't think it's possible to draw a binary distinction between dog breeds that are safe and dog breeds that are unsafe, and so there will always be cases that can't be dealt with by banning a subset of dogs.
    The nerf gun we have in the office has an unstable trigger. If you drop it, it can go off. And hit you in the ankle with a foam dart.

    A Violet Club nuclear weapon could, if dropped, yield 25kt.

    This is why nerf guns are unregulated. And nuclear weapons are.
    It's pretty easy to draw a distinction between a nerf fun and a nuclear weapon. Is it so easy to draw distinctions between different dog breeds?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fatal_dog_attacks_in_the_United_Kingdom#2020–present

    Looks a slam dunk for the XL Bully.
    Indeed.

    Dog breeds are fantastically differentiated, an XL Bully looks very different from a Newfoundland or for that matter a Chihuahua. And you can very easily recognise the dangerous breeds.

    On the other hand people look much the same. So on the basis that a male child molester looks very much like any other male, then following the same logic as advocates of measures against dogs in general follow, you should end up calling for all male adults to be banned from parks in the interests of child safety.


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Modern Railways
    @Modern_Railways

    To brighten up everyone's Friday afternoon, here's some good news - Elizabeth Line passenger numbers keep growing. Last Thursday it carried 738,000 passengers - the highest yet in a single day. Yesterday may have been busier still - numbers awaited. Build it and they will come!
    4:17 PM · Oct 6, 2023"

    https://twitter.com/Modern_Railways/status/1710313441448136955

    So cancelling HS2 was probably a mistake then? Who knew?
    What they're not telling you is how usage has changed on the Central Line and DLR.
    Sure, but the number is astounding. Scotrail had 63m rail journeys in the last 12 month period, equivalent to 1.2m a week or an average of 173k a day. So the entire Scotrail network was carrying 23% of a single tube line. Jeez.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Modern Railways
    @Modern_Railways

    To brighten up everyone's Friday afternoon, here's some good news - Elizabeth Line passenger numbers keep growing. Last Thursday it carried 738,000 passengers - the highest yet in a single day. Yesterday may have been busier still - numbers awaited. Build it and they will come!
    4:17 PM · Oct 6, 2023"

    https://twitter.com/Modern_Railways/status/1710313441448136955

    So cancelling HS2 was probably a mistake then? Who knew?
    What they're not telling you is how usage has changed on the Central Line and DLR.
    Sure, but the number is astounding. Scotrail had 63m rail journeys in the last 12 month period, equivalent to 1.2m a week or an average of 173k a day. So the entire Scotrail network was carrying 23% of a single tube line. Jeez.
    I don't think that is that surprising: let's not forget that (a) the population of London is a lot more than that of Scotland, and (b) London is by far the most public transport heavy part of the UK.

  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    DavidL said:

    Totally O/T, but very little decent tv about at the moment....Lupin Season 3 has dropped on Netflix. Always found it quite a fun show, and French isn't too hard if you speak it (the main character speaks quite slowly for a native French speaker).

    I've been quite enjoying The Hidden World of Hospitality by Tom Kerridge on BBC Iplayer. It is quite rare to get a program which actually addresses how you run a business and the challenges you face. It's not the deepest analysis but you get a picture from a wide range of different businesses and some interesting models of what is working.

    But I agree, its a thin field at the moment.
    It’s a brutal industry. So many people have this idea about buying a pub or a restaurant because they think they can just do what they like about a particular pub and a restaurant and it will obviously work, because it works for them. They don’t get the immense levels of personal work involved and the multiple layers to the business in relation to staffing, stock, marketing etc.

    I remember when my old man retired he thought it would be fun to buy a couple of restaurants and pubs because he thought it would be great to be able to go there with his mates, and even occasionally their wives, and have a place that was made for “them”. He had people running them and didn’t get involved in the day to day micro-organising as that “wasn’t why he bought them”.

    Hundreds of grand of burning money later he sold them having had a pointless jolly but there are loads of people who do it when they put all their live savings into it because it’s a “dream” which is even worse. I admire anyone who makes a success of a hospitality business, in fact anyone who works in one. You get the odd genius, you might get lucky but the failures are more common than the successes.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Modern Railways
    @Modern_Railways

    To brighten up everyone's Friday afternoon, here's some good news - Elizabeth Line passenger numbers keep growing. Last Thursday it carried 738,000 passengers - the highest yet in a single day. Yesterday may have been busier still - numbers awaited. Build it and they will come!
    4:17 PM · Oct 6, 2023"

    https://twitter.com/Modern_Railways/status/1710313441448136955

    So cancelling HS2 was probably a mistake then? Who knew?
    What they're not telling you is how usage has changed on the Central Line and DLR.
    Sure, but the number is astounding. Scotrail had 63m rail journeys in the last 12 month period, equivalent to 1.2m a week or an average of 173k a day. So the entire Scotrail network was carrying 23% of a single tube line. Jeez.
    Rather longer journeys, in many cases!
  • Leon said:

    The Aussies manage to have a ban on XL Bullies and it works fine. Aussies aren’t regularly mauled to death by them

    So it can be done. Do it

    I predict - again - that the government will come under irresistible pressure to speed up on this when we encounter the next truly horrible video; probably involving a child

    The Aussies banned the episode of Peppa Pig where she befriends a spider.
  • Can someone please explain to me:

    A private psychiatrist charges £360 per hour. Let's say they see 4 people per day. That's £1440.

    Or £7200 per week.
    Maybe £345,000 per year.

    Now I know there are various costs they will need to pay. Rental space, a (shared?) secretary, insurance. But even so, that seems like an awful lot of money. I wonder what the costs would be in similar countries.

    We're talking doctors, so the base rate must be what the NHS pays, which is either side of £100k a year for a full timer at consultant level. Multiply by three to cover the other costs and taxes... That's not untypical for that sort of business, is it?

    I mean, it's expensive, but doctors are expensive. Probably the most expensive professionals most of us come into contact with on a regular basis. And psychiatry is one of those things that needs a lot of hours.
    From £7,200 a week to £345,000 a year implies only four weeks off. Bank holidays alone would probably add another fortnight. I'd guess around £300,000 with ten weeks off.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    Andy_JS said:

    "Modern Railways
    @Modern_Railways

    To brighten up everyone's Friday afternoon, here's some good news - Elizabeth Line passenger numbers keep growing. Last Thursday it carried 738,000 passengers - the highest yet in a single day. Yesterday may have been busier still - numbers awaited. Build it and they will come!
    4:17 PM · Oct 6, 2023"

    https://twitter.com/Modern_Railways/status/1710313441448136955

    Would be interesting to see the hotspots for which bit is growing fastest and at what times.

    Paddington to City is one journey that has massively changed.
    Heathrow to my flat is:

    90 (uncomfortable) minutes by taxi
    55 (expensive) minutes by Heathrow Express plus Taxi
    38 (cheap and efficient) minutes by the Elizabeth Line

    It helps, of course, that I'm three minutes walk from Tottenham Court Road tube station.

    That said, the Elizabeth line has put me right off British Airways. Simply, because the Elizabeth Line goes to Terminals 2/3, I'd much rather travel by Virgin, American or United, than trek out to Terminal 5.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    Leon said:

    The Aussies manage to have a ban on XL Bullies and it works fine. Aussies aren’t regularly mauled to death by them

    So it can be done. Do it

    I predict - again - that the government will come under irresistible pressure to speed up on this when we encounter the next truly horrible video; probably involving a child

    The Aussies banned the episode of Peppa Pig where she befriends a spider.
    Have you met an Aussie spider? They are all violent bogons. And probably drunk - I swear the one that ran towards me was holding at least four stubbies.
  • boulay said:

    DavidL said:

    Totally O/T, but very little decent tv about at the moment....Lupin Season 3 has dropped on Netflix. Always found it quite a fun show, and French isn't too hard if you speak it (the main character speaks quite slowly for a native French speaker).

    I've been quite enjoying The Hidden World of Hospitality by Tom Kerridge on BBC Iplayer. It is quite rare to get a program which actually addresses how you run a business and the challenges you face. It's not the deepest analysis but you get a picture from a wide range of different businesses and some interesting models of what is working.

    But I agree, its a thin field at the moment.
    It’s a brutal industry. So many people have this idea about buying a pub or a restaurant because they think they can just do what they like about a particular pub and a restaurant and it will obviously work, because it works for them. They don’t get the immense levels of personal work involved and the multiple layers to the business in relation to staffing, stock, marketing etc.

    I remember when my old man retired he thought it would be fun to buy a couple of restaurants and pubs because he thought it would be great to be able to go there with his mates, and even occasionally their wives, and have a place that was made for “them”. He had people running them and didn’t get involved in the day to day micro-organising as that “wasn’t why he bought them”.

    Hundreds of grand of burning money later he sold them having had a pointless jolly but there are loads of people who do it when they put all their live savings into it because it’s a “dream” which is even worse. I admire anyone who makes a success of a hospitality business, in fact anyone who works in one. You get the odd genius, you might get lucky but the failures are more common than the successes.
    Its the old joke...how do you become a millionaire in the restaurant business....start with 2 and open one.
  • New thread.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    US Jobs surge

    "Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double what had been predicted, confirming the overall strength of an economy that is facing challenges." NY Times

    This is not good news for the Democrats.

    So long as the job market is strong, it means the Fed will keep interest rates high. And that means that a lot of people may be employed, but they're still struggling with rising mortgage payments as their ARMs reset.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058
    This thread has been abandoned and sold off to housing developers
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    London looking beautiful in the sun as we land. The Thames a ribbon of silver..
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319
    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Been pondering again whom I should vote for around here. It's been a two horse race for a long, long time apart from in the early 2000s when it was a 1 horse race.
    I'd previously come to the conclusion that it had to be SNP because my priority was to throw the useless sack of shit Duguid and the Tories in general out.

    I still can't imagine that anyone else is the main challenger but last night's result was so bad for the SNP I'm wondering.

    Last election: Con 50% SNP 40% LD 5% Lab 4%

    Thoughts?

    Have a look at my earlier post with the [edit!] Prof Curtice discussion and the Blair Foundation report links.
    Sorry, I can't find it, mind highlighting it to me?
    Sure:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23838676.scottish-independence-support-leads-support-union-report-finds/?ref=ebbn

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23837694.john-curtice-uncertain-labour-sealed-deal-electorate/

    and while at it

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23838799.rutherglen-result-tells-us-general-election/
    It cannot be Carnyx , the Scotch experts on here say it is finished.
    Hello, Malky! Almost dry here here but not for much longer.

    PS The point of those two main postings is - it's not from pro-indy sources.
    Chucking it down on west coast Carnyx
  • rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Modern Railways
    @Modern_Railways

    To brighten up everyone's Friday afternoon, here's some good news - Elizabeth Line passenger numbers keep growing. Last Thursday it carried 738,000 passengers - the highest yet in a single day. Yesterday may have been busier still - numbers awaited. Build it and they will come!
    4:17 PM · Oct 6, 2023"

    https://twitter.com/Modern_Railways/status/1710313441448136955

    Would be interesting to see the hotspots for which bit is growing fastest and at what times.

    Paddington to City is one journey that has massively changed.
    Heathrow to my flat is:

    90 (uncomfortable) minutes by taxi
    55 (expensive) minutes by Heathrow Express plus Taxi
    38 (cheap and efficient) minutes by the Elizabeth Line

    It helps, of course, that I'm three minutes walk from Tottenham Court Road tube station.

    That said, the Elizabeth line has put me right off British Airways. Simply, because the Elizabeth Line goes to Terminals 2/3, I'd much rather travel by Virgin, American or United, than trek out to Terminal 5.
    Not any more. There's a half-hourly Shenfield-T5 service now.

    Which goes to the heart of something trains do that cars and buses don't. There's glamour in those destination boards, the sense that one could just stay on the train, not bother getting off at Stratford and find oneself anywhere in the world.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Modern Railways
    @Modern_Railways

    To brighten up everyone's Friday afternoon, here's some good news - Elizabeth Line passenger numbers keep growing. Last Thursday it carried 738,000 passengers - the highest yet in a single day. Yesterday may have been busier still - numbers awaited. Build it and they will come!
    4:17 PM · Oct 6, 2023"

    https://twitter.com/Modern_Railways/status/1710313441448136955

    Would be interesting to see the hotspots for which bit is growing fastest and at what times.

    Paddington to City is one journey that has massively changed.
    Heathrow to my flat is:

    90 (uncomfortable) minutes by taxi
    55 (expensive) minutes by Heathrow Express plus Taxi
    38 (cheap and efficient) minutes by the Elizabeth Line

    It helps, of course, that I'm three minutes walk from Tottenham Court Road tube station.

    That said, the Elizabeth line has put me right off British Airways. Simply, because the Elizabeth Line goes to Terminals 2/3, I'd much rather travel by Virgin, American or United, than trek out to Terminal 5.
    Isn't it just a 5 minute extra journey on the Liz Line from T2/3 to T5?
  • theakestheakes Posts: 930
    As I have said the betting this week seems to be going in a different direction to what appears to be happening on the ground. The experienced Lib Dem canvassers are returning to base seemingly quite optimistic, a trifle unusual given we are still two weeks out. I would say the Lib Dems are the value bet. I am just waiting to see whether the odds lengthen further. to make it worth while.

    One would expect that the Labour Party might produce another of their commissioned polls this weekend, if not then it will probably indicate what I have gleaned is accurate.

    Interesting that the Labour candidate at Tamworth, just like the one at Mid Beds, is claiming to be currently local except that she lived in Moseley, what South East Birmingham , and like the Labour candidates at Mid Beds she has suddenly moved into an apartment, in Tamworth. The Conservatives have run with this. Why Labour get into these situations is baffling , they look silly and panicky. It is so unnecessary.
This discussion has been closed.