Is LAB going to make a by-election gain tonight? – politicalbetting.com
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😆easily my favourite post of the weekHYUFD said:
So you are suggesting Matt Goodwin is a future dictator of the United Kingdom? Sounds more like a spoofviewcode said:
In Turchin terms, "elites" is a simple synonym for "power havers". "Elite overproduction" is when people capable of wielding power (I used the word "qualified" above, which misled, my apologies) are denied it thru simple lack of powerful positions. He uses it to refer to well-educated people with professional/academic positions who have sufficient interest in the world and sufficient time to formulate theories.Farooq said:
Who exactly is qualified to wield power but also willing to utilise disaffected masses to overthrow regimes?viewcode said:
You may be interested to know that I think he's 100% wrong. I'm going thru Peter Turchin's "End Times"[1] at the moment and I think he (Turchin) is right. The combination of popular immiseration and elite overproduction have led to the potential for revolution, where people qualified to wield power but denied it utilise disaffected masses to overthrow regimes. Allister Heath's prescription would just make the miserable poor more miserable and more poor, and that'll only make things worse.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This article should be read by everyone interested in politics and economicsCookie said:
But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the moneyAnabobazina said:
Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.algarkirk said:
Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.Cookie said:So after all that, Labour are going to do exactly the same. Come on Labour, pull your fingers out:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/05/keir-starmer-will-not-commit-reverse-rishi-sunak-hs2-cut/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/04/financial-crisis-political-class-lies/
Recall my past comments on Pensionerism. The preponderance of wealthy elderly means that old ideas will persist even when they stop working, and new ideas for a new age will die stillborn. The cure you prefer would have worked in a neoliberal age, but that age stopped around 2015. The current condition - retreating globalisation, less trade, more migration waves - require new solutions, and the old ways won't work. We have just spent two years pushing on a string with higher interest rates, and were surprised it didn't work. Making mistakes is one thing, but failing to learn from them is another.
[1] https://www.waterstones.com/book/end-times/peter-turchin//9780241553480
My judgement of the former would be somewhat* tempered by the latter.
*utterly
Here's a thing: Lenin trained to be a lawyer, Stalin a priest, Mao a teacher/librarian, Hitler an artist. All in different circumstances would be comfortable professionals. But lacking a outlet for their gifts and surrounded by disaffected, they went into politics, won, overthrew the existing order and remade the world...and we spent fifty years cleaning up after them.
Although not in the same league (obvs) consider somebody like Matthew Goodwin. A man of considerable gifts and academic achievement, he has the time and intelligence to build an underlying theory of the world and the desire to change the world accordingly. But in a nation of 68 million people (69, 70...remember, it's increasing) and only 650 seats at the top level and a few thou(?) at devolved level, he cannot wield the power he believes to be his right.
So my answer to your question is "...well-educated people/autodidacts with professional/academic positions who have sufficient interest in the world, sufficient time to formulate theories, and sufficient resources to pursue power..."
Does that answer your question?
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+2350 Lab for me0
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I get the theory. Didn't someone say of the French Revolution that it happened not because the peasants were starving, but because the lawyers were?viewcode said:
In Turchin terms, "elites" is a simple synonym for "power havers". "Elite overproduction" is when people capable of wielding power (I used the word "qualified" above, which misled, my apologies) are denied it thru simple lack of powerful positions. He uses it to refer to well-educated people with professional/academic positions who have sufficient interest in the world and sufficient time to formulate theories.Farooq said:
Who exactly is qualified to wield power but also willing to utilise disaffected masses to overthrow regimes?viewcode said:
You may be interested to know that I think he's 100% wrong. I'm going thru Peter Turchin's "End Times"[1] at the moment and I think he (Turchin) is right. The combination of popular immiseration and elite overproduction have led to the potential for revolution, where people qualified to wield power but denied it utilise disaffected masses to overthrow regimes. Allister Heath's prescription would just make the miserable poor more miserable and more poor, and that'll only make things worse.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This article should be read by everyone interested in politics and economicsCookie said:
But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the moneyAnabobazina said:
Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.algarkirk said:
Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.Cookie said:So after all that, Labour are going to do exactly the same. Come on Labour, pull your fingers out:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/05/keir-starmer-will-not-commit-reverse-rishi-sunak-hs2-cut/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/04/financial-crisis-political-class-lies/
Recall my past comments on Pensionerism. The preponderance of wealthy elderly means that old ideas will persist even when they stop working, and new ideas for a new age will die stillborn. The cure you prefer would have worked in a neoliberal age, but that age stopped around 2015. The current condition - retreating globalisation, less trade, more migration waves - require new solutions, and the old ways won't work. We have just spent two years pushing on a string with higher interest rates, and were surprised it didn't work. Making mistakes is one thing, but failing to learn from them is another.
[1] https://www.waterstones.com/book/end-times/peter-turchin//9780241553480
My judgement of the former would be somewhat* tempered by the latter.
*utterly
Here's a thing: Lenin trained to be a lawyer, Stalin a priest, Mao a teacher/librarian, Hitler an artist. All in different circumstances would be comfortable professionals. But lacking a outlet for their gifts and surrounded by disaffected, they went into politics, won, overthrew the existing order and remade the world...and we spent fifty years cleaning up after them.
Although not in the same league (obvs) consider somebody like Matthew Goodwin. A man of considerable gifts and academic achievement, he has the time and intelligence to build an underlying theory of the world and the desire to change the world accordingly. But in a nation of 68 million people (69, 70...remember, it's increasing) and only 650 seats at the top level and a few thou(?) at devolved level, he cannot wield the power he believes to be his right.
So my answer to your question is "...well-educated people/autodidacts with professional/academic positions who have sufficient interest in the world, sufficient time to formulate theories, and sufficient resources to pursue power..."
Does that answer your question?
If so, I think that we are approaching that state, with a super rich neauvoux aristocracy, and a lot of white collar millennials living day by day. It isn't a stable situation in the long term.3 -
I know modern history has distorted our perspective but many people of the time were very impressed with Adolf Hitler. He was also named man of the year once.Farooq said:
Yes, and it's intensely interesting too, thanks.viewcode said:
In Turchin terms, "elites" is a simple synonym for "power havers". "Elite overproduction" is when people capable of wielding power (I used the word "qualified" above, which misled, my apologies) are denied it thru simple lack of powerful positions. He uses it to refer to well-educated people with professional/academic positions who have sufficient interest in the world and sufficient time to formulate theories.Farooq said:
Who exactly is qualified to wield power but also willing to utilise disaffected masses to overthrow regimes?viewcode said:
You may be interested to know that I think he's 100% wrong. I'm going thru Peter Turchin's "End Times"[1] at the moment and I think he (Turchin) is right. The combination of popular immiseration and elite overproduction have led to the potential for revolution, where people qualified to wield power but denied it utilise disaffected masses to overthrow regimes. Allister Heath's prescription would just make the miserable poor more miserable and more poor, and that'll only make things worse.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This article should be read by everyone interested in politics and economicsCookie said:
But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the moneyAnabobazina said:
Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.algarkirk said:
Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.Cookie said:So after all that, Labour are going to do exactly the same. Come on Labour, pull your fingers out:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/05/keir-starmer-will-not-commit-reverse-rishi-sunak-hs2-cut/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/04/financial-crisis-political-class-lies/
Recall my past comments on Pensionerism. The preponderance of wealthy elderly means that old ideas will persist even when they stop working, and new ideas for a new age will die stillborn. The cure you prefer would have worked in a neoliberal age, but that age stopped around 2015. The current condition - retreating globalisation, less trade, more migration waves - require new solutions, and the old ways won't work. We have just spent two years pushing on a string with higher interest rates, and were surprised it didn't work. Making mistakes is one thing, but failing to learn from them is another.
[1] https://www.waterstones.com/book/end-times/peter-turchin//9780241553480
My judgement of the former would be somewhat* tempered by the latter.
*utterly
Here's a thing: Lenin trained to be a lawyer, Stalin a priest, Mao a teacher/librarian, Hitler an artist. All in different circumstances would be comfortable professionals. But lacking a outlet for their gifts and surrounded by disaffected, they went into politics, won, overthrew the existing order and remade the world...and we spent fifty years cleaning up after them.
Although not in the same league (obvs) consider somebody like Matthew Goodwin. A man of considerable gifts and academic achievement, he has the time and intelligence to build an underlying theory of the world and the desire to change the world accordingly. But in a nation of 68 million people (69, 70...remember, it's increasing) and only 650 seats at the top level and a few thou(?) at devolved level, he cannot wield the power he believes to be his right.
So my answer to your question is "...well-educated people/autodidacts with professional/academic positions who have sufficient interest in the world, sufficient time to formulate theories, and sufficient resources to pursue power..."
Does that answer your question?
Slight quibble. I think Lenin was politically motivated at a very early age by his brother's troubles but I'm no Leninologist so I might be wrong.0 -
BBC Scotland by-election special is available elsewhere on the BBC News Channel.0
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Keith Brown getting the excuses in early on BBC1 Scotland.0
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aberdeen north and dundee east are never ever ever going to go tory0
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On the theory that Police Scotland tiptoe around elections, the charges should be next week.0
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Curtice has spoken and it's bad news for Tories and the SNP. Deposit loss for the Blues looking possible.0
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No. I gave him a an example of an overproduced elite. As the number of the former increase, and the number of the immiserated poor similarly increase, the probability of revolution increases. He will orobably not become UK dictator, any more than an individual pebble can be predicted to cause the avalanche. But as the number goes up, the probability that somebody will rises.HYUFD said:
So you are suggesting Matt Goodwin is a future dictator of the United Kingdom? Sounds more like a spoofviewcode said:
In Turchin terms, "elites" is a simple synonym for "power havers". "Elite overproduction" is when people capable of wielding power (I used the word "qualified" above, which misled, my apologies) are denied it thru simple lack of powerful positions. He uses it to refer to well-educated people with professional/academic positions who have sufficient interest in the world and sufficient time to formulate theories.Farooq said:
Who exactly is qualified to wield power but also willing to utilise disaffected masses to overthrow regimes?viewcode said:
You may be interested to know that I think he's 100% wrong. I'm going thru Peter Turchin's "End Times"[1] at the moment and I think he (Turchin) is right. The combination of popular immiseration and elite overproduction have led to the potential for revolution, where people qualified to wield power but denied it utilise disaffected masses to overthrow regimes. Allister Heath's prescription would just make the miserable poor more miserable and more poor, and that'll only make things worse.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This article should be read by everyone interested in politics and economicsCookie said:
But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the moneyAnabobazina said:
Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.algarkirk said:
Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.Cookie said:So after all that, Labour are going to do exactly the same. Come on Labour, pull your fingers out:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/05/keir-starmer-will-not-commit-reverse-rishi-sunak-hs2-cut/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/04/financial-crisis-political-class-lies/
Recall my past comments on Pensionerism. The preponderance of wealthy elderly means that old ideas will persist even when they stop working, and new ideas for a new age will die stillborn. The cure you prefer would have worked in a neoliberal age, but that age stopped around 2015. The current condition - retreating globalisation, less trade, more migration waves - require new solutions, and the old ways won't work. We have just spent two years pushing on a string with higher interest rates, and were surprised it didn't work. Making mistakes is one thing, but failing to learn from them is another.
[1] https://www.waterstones.com/book/end-times/peter-turchin//9780241553480
My judgement of the former would be somewhat* tempered by the latter.
*utterly
Here's a thing: Lenin trained to be a lawyer, Stalin a priest, Mao a teacher/librarian, Hitler an artist. All in different circumstances would be comfortable professionals. But lacking a outlet for their gifts and surrounded by disaffected, they went into politics, won, overthrew the existing order and remade the world...and we spent fifty years cleaning up after them.
Although not in the same league (obvs) consider somebody like Matthew Goodwin. A man of considerable gifts and academic achievement, he has the time and intelligence to build an underlying theory of the world and the desire to change the world accordingly. But in a nation of 68 million people (69, 70...remember, it's increasing) and only 650 seats at the top level and a few thou(?) at devolved level, he cannot wield the power he believes to be his right.
So my answer to your question is "...well-educated people/autodidacts with professional/academic positions who have sufficient interest in the world, sufficient time to formulate theories, and sufficient resources to pursue power..."
Does that answer your question?
Recall that Farage was a metals trader. Everybody laughed at him. Then he won.0 -
Well, HS2 was never, ever going to go to Glasgow, was it?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Curtice has spoken and it's bad news for Tories and the SNP. Deposit loss for the Blues looking possible.
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Turnout = 37.19%. Around 30,000 votes.
My prediction was 40%, although I forget to post it on here. 50% was always too high a forecast IMO.0 -
37.19% turnout
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Well what do you know, most eligible voters did nae bother0
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If Keith Brown is right, and the Tory vote has collapsed to Lab then this could be a very interesting result indeed.0
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If the by-election happens, East Kilbride looks very much in playAramintaMoonbeamQC said:If Keith Brown is right, and the Tory vote has collapsed to Lab then this could be a very interesting result indeed.
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Back in 2012, Manchester Central = 18.2%AramintaMoonbeamQC said:37.19% turnout
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Leeds Central 1999 was around 19% IIRC.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Back in 2012, Manchester Central = 18.2%AramintaMoonbeamQC said:37.19% turnout
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Very high population of students and generally lazy bastards.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Back in 2012, Manchester Central = 18.2%AramintaMoonbeamQC said:37.19% turnout
(Source: am Mancunian)0 -
19.6%Andy_JS said:
Leeds Central 1999 was around 19% IIRC.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Back in 2012, Manchester Central = 18.2%AramintaMoonbeamQC said:37.19% turnout
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Benchmarks from Britain Predicts:
Labour margin of win in Rutherglen today will imply X Lab seats in Scotland
+15pts: 29 seats (+28) on 2019
+10pts: 21 seats
+5pts: 12 seats
+0pts: 3 seats
-5pts: 2 seats2 -
BBC by election special suggests sources at count saying a 7-8% swing from SNP to Labour since 2019 and Labour will clearly gain the seat from the SNP. The Tories will likely lose their deposit0
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You shouldn't let that be an impediment, no one else has.viewcode said:I have no idea who will win tonight, have not researched the situation and so cannot predict. Best of luck to all those of you who have placed a bet and I hope you make a profit.
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On a night when Scottish Independence hangs in the balance, Penny pans Starmer for failure to curtail Drakeford's plans for Welsh Independence
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/senior-cabinet-minister-told-outright-278396850 -
Lab +14pts is the point at which they'd win any East Kilbride by election on a matching result.carnforth said:Benchmarks from Britain Predicts:
Labour margin of win in Rutherglen today will imply X Lab seats in Scotland
+15pts: 29 seats (+28) on 2019
+10pts: 21 seats
+5pts: 12 seats
+0pts: 3 seats
-5pts: 2 seats0 -
Penny will learn,Mexicanpete said:On a night when Scottish Independence hangs in the balance, Penny pans Starmer for failure to curtail Drakeford's plans for Welsh Independence
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/senior-cabinet-minister-told-outright-27839685
You don’t shake The Drake.1 -
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A seismically modest swing..HYUFD said:BBC by election special suggests sources at count saying a 7-8% swing from SNP to Labour since 2019 and Labour will clearly gain the seat from the SNP. The Tories will likely lose their deposit
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Another Tory dividend. Good work, especially when the turnout was a measly 37%.
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Listening to politicians arguing with each other before a by-election result is as infuriating as ever.3
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Not that modest, the SNP would lose over 10 MPs to Labour on that swingTheuniondivvie said:
A seismically modest swing..HYUFD said:BBC by election special suggests sources at count saying a 7-8% swing from SNP to Labour since 2019 and Labour will clearly gain the seat from the SNP. The Tories will likely lose their deposit
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1603 was right there.Flatlander said:2 -
Are you still to be counted as a Conservative, young HY?HYUFD said:BBC by election special suggests sources at count saying a 7-8% swing from SNP to Labour since 2019 and Labour will clearly gain the seat from the SNP. The Tories will likely lose their deposit
Just wondering....
But if so, any particular reason?0 -
30 minutes to declaration, apparently.0
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Lab briefing 55% of the vote share.0
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That would be roughly a 20% lead and a 15% swing.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Lab briefing 55% of the vote share.
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HOO BOY.Andy_JS said:
That would be roughly a 20% lead and a 15% swing.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Lab briefing 55% of the vote share.
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Surely not , that would be an incredible result .AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Lab briefing 55% of the vote share.
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I would not be surprised at all by that, tbh.nico679 said:
Surely not , that would be an incredible result .AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Lab briefing 55% of the vote share.
It is back to pre Indyref levels of Labour vote. They got 60% in 2010. The SNP should be bricking it if the result is anything like that.
Update: Times Scotland political editor saying 15% swing.1 -
SNP getting stepmommed.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
HOO BOY.Andy_JS said:
That would be roughly a 20% lead and a 15% swing.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Lab briefing 55% of the vote share.
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Count faster, Weegies.0
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Anas Sarwar supports 20mph limits in all urban areas.
Just saying.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-56750836
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Tbf, some of the ballot boxes have to come back on a boat...Farooq said:
We're lucky they're counting overnight at all! Some elections in Scotland start counting the next dayAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Count faster, Weegies.
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If Liz Truss hadn't blown up her premiership, her snub of Nicola Sturgeon would be looking like a political masterstroke at the moment.0
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You wouldn't give Ross Greer a job washing up, would you? Unemployable.1
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Orkney and Shetland will win that. About 35?Farooq said:
I wonder what the highest number of inhabited islands in an individual constituency isAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Tbf, some of the ballot boxes have to come back on a boat...Farooq said:
We're lucky they're counting overnight at all! Some elections in Scotland start counting the next dayAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Count faster, Weegies.
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01:15 declaration, apparently.1
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Yes.Farooq said:This result is going to help Labour in the other by-elections down south, isn't it?
It will reinforce the belief that Starmer = Lawyer = Winner.2 -
I'm not seeing how lawyer fits into this equation.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.Farooq said:This result is going to help Labour in the other by-elections down south, isn't it?
It will reinforce the belief that Starmer = Lawyer = Winner.1 -
Labour has been moving in on Betfair today for mid-Beds - currently on 2, with Tories on 3 and LibDems on 5.Farooq said:This result is going to help Labour in the other by-elections down south, isn't it?
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Apart from Wilson, all of Labour's majority leaders have been lawyers since the war.williamglenn said:
I'm not seeing how lawyer fits into this equation.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.Farooq said:This result is going to help Labour in the other by-elections down south, isn't it?
It will reinforce the belief that Starmer = Lawyer = Winner.
When a lawyer has taken on a non lawyer in a Con v Labour leader front the lawyer has always won.
In short, being a lawyer helps win general elections when you're up against a non lawyer.0 -
Given the advances in AI, isn't it odd that TV subtitling of speech is so rubbish? Nearly every sentence appears as part-gibberish.1
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Based on TSE's theory, the Tories need to find someone like Bill Cash.Farooq said:
It'll be fascinating to find out who Starmer will be facingTheScreamingEagles said:
Apart from Wilson, all of Labour's majority leaders have been lawyers since the war.williamglenn said:
I'm not seeing how lawyer fits into this equation.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.Farooq said:This result is going to help Labour in the other by-elections down south, isn't it?
It will reinforce the belief that Starmer = Lawyer = Winner.
When a lawyer has taken on a non lawyer in a Con v Labour leader front the lawyer has always won.
In short, being a lawyer helps win general elections when you're up against a non lawyer.0 -
It is very annoying. Live and auto-subtitled programmes are always hopeless.NickPalmer said:Given the advances in AI, isn't it odd that TV subtitling of speech is so rubbish? Nearly every sentence appears as part-gibberish.
Tempting to feed the audio into a local computer to see if it can do better.0 -
Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani owes over half million dollars in federal taxes, and the IRS has placed a lien on his property in Palm Beach, per @Tom_Winter and @jonathan4ny
https://twitter.com/KenDilanianNBC/status/17100505335563264890 -
Barclay and Braverman were lawyerswilliamglenn said:
Based on TSE's theory, the Tories need to find someone like Bill Cash.Farooq said:
It'll be fascinating to find out who Starmer will be facingTheScreamingEagles said:
Apart from Wilson, all of Labour's majority leaders have been lawyers since the war.williamglenn said:
I'm not seeing how lawyer fits into this equation.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.Farooq said:This result is going to help Labour in the other by-elections down south, isn't it?
It will reinforce the belief that Starmer = Lawyer = Winner.
When a lawyer has taken on a non lawyer in a Con v Labour leader front the lawyer has always won.
In short, being a lawyer helps win general elections when you're up against a non lawyer.0 -
Not always, non lawyer Churchill beat lawyer Attlee in 1951TheScreamingEagles said:
Apart from Wilson, all of Labour's majority leaders have been lawyers since the war.williamglenn said:
I'm not seeing how lawyer fits into this equation.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.Farooq said:This result is going to help Labour in the other by-elections down south, isn't it?
It will reinforce the belief that Starmer = Lawyer = Winner.
When a lawyer has taken on a non lawyer in a Con v Labour leader front the lawyer has always won.
In short, being a lawyer helps win general elections when you're up against a non lawyer.0 -
Attlee won the popular vote.HYUFD said:
Not always, non lawyer Churchill beat lawyer Attlee in 1951TheScreamingEagles said:
Apart from Wilson, all of Labour's majority leaders have been lawyers since the war.williamglenn said:
I'm not seeing how lawyer fits into this equation.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.Farooq said:This result is going to help Labour in the other by-elections down south, isn't it?
It will reinforce the belief that Starmer = Lawyer = Winner.
When a lawyer has taken on a non lawyer in a Con v Labour leader front the lawyer has always won.
In short, being a lawyer helps win general elections when you're up against a non lawyer.0 -
And Braverman went to the Sorbonne.HYUFD said:
Barclay and Braverman were lawyerswilliamglenn said:
Based on TSE's theory, the Tories need to find someone like Bill Cash.Farooq said:
It'll be fascinating to find out who Starmer will be facingTheScreamingEagles said:
Apart from Wilson, all of Labour's majority leaders have been lawyers since the war.williamglenn said:
I'm not seeing how lawyer fits into this equation.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.Farooq said:This result is going to help Labour in the other by-elections down south, isn't it?
It will reinforce the belief that Starmer = Lawyer = Winner.
When a lawyer has taken on a non lawyer in a Con v Labour leader front the lawyer has always won.
In short, being a lawyer helps win general elections when you're up against a non lawyer.1 -
So did Al Gore and Hillary Clinton and Ted Heath in Feb 1974, all 4 still lost the electionTheScreamingEagles said:
Attlee won the popular vote.HYUFD said:
Not always, non lawyer Churchill beat lawyer Attlee in 1951TheScreamingEagles said:
Apart from Wilson, all of Labour's majority leaders have been lawyers since the war.williamglenn said:
I'm not seeing how lawyer fits into this equation.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.Farooq said:This result is going to help Labour in the other by-elections down south, isn't it?
It will reinforce the belief that Starmer = Lawyer = Winner.
When a lawyer has taken on a non lawyer in a Con v Labour leader front the lawyer has always won.
In short, being a lawyer helps win general elections when you're up against a non lawyer.1 -
More importantly, Braverman and Barclay are Cambridge educated lawyers.williamglenn said:
And Braverman went to the Sorbonne.HYUFD said:
Barclay and Braverman were lawyerswilliamglenn said:
Based on TSE's theory, the Tories need to find someone like Bill Cash.Farooq said:
It'll be fascinating to find out who Starmer will be facingTheScreamingEagles said:
Apart from Wilson, all of Labour's majority leaders have been lawyers since the war.williamglenn said:
I'm not seeing how lawyer fits into this equation.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.Farooq said:This result is going to help Labour in the other by-elections down south, isn't it?
It will reinforce the belief that Starmer = Lawyer = Winner.
When a lawyer has taken on a non lawyer in a Con v Labour leader front the lawyer has always won.
In short, being a lawyer helps win general elections when you're up against a non lawyer.0 -
0
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I'm not sure that's anything to be that excited by: the Sorbonne barely sneaks into the top 50 universities worldwide, while Cambridge (where she also studied) is 8th.williamglenn said:
And Braverman went to the Sorbonne.HYUFD said:
Barclay and Braverman were lawyerswilliamglenn said:
Based on TSE's theory, the Tories need to find someone like Bill Cash.Farooq said:
It'll be fascinating to find out who Starmer will be facingTheScreamingEagles said:
Apart from Wilson, all of Labour's majority leaders have been lawyers since the war.williamglenn said:
I'm not seeing how lawyer fits into this equation.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.Farooq said:This result is going to help Labour in the other by-elections down south, isn't it?
It will reinforce the belief that Starmer = Lawyer = Winner.
When a lawyer has taken on a non lawyer in a Con v Labour leader front the lawyer has always won.
In short, being a lawyer helps win general elections when you're up against a non lawyer.0 -
Labour hold in the Tamworth local by-election.
"Amington
Lab 669
Con 526
Ind Cook 242
Reform UK 98
UKIP 25
via Richard Price on Twitter"
Labour hold in Vauxhall local by-election.
"LAMBETH Vauxhall
SWAINE-JAMESON, Tom Simon (Labour Party) 595
ALDERECHI, Fareed (Liberal Democrats) 395
BOND, Jacqueline Rose (The Green Party) 256
ROTHERHAM, Lee Stuart (Conservative Party Candidate) 160
LAMBERT, Daniel Peter (The Socialist Party (GB)) 9"1 -
Yes, it’s rather like auto correct on phones - mostly garbage. Makes one wonder whether AI is all it’s cracked up to be.NickPalmer said:Given the advances in AI, isn't it odd that TV subtitling of speech is so rubbish? Nearly every sentence appears as part-gibberish.
0 -
Barclay or Braverman v Starmer would be the firstwilliamglenn said:
And Braverman went to the Sorbonne.HYUFD said:
Barclay and Braverman were lawyerswilliamglenn said:
Based on TSE's theory, the Tories need to find someone like Bill Cash.Farooq said:
It'll be fascinating to find out who Starmer will be facingTheScreamingEagles said:
Apart from Wilson, all of Labour's majority leaders have been lawyers since the war.williamglenn said:
I'm not seeing how lawyer fits into this equation.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.Farooq said:This result is going to help Labour in the other by-elections down south, isn't it?
It will reinforce the belief that Starmer = Lawyer = Winner.
When a lawyer has taken on a non lawyer in a Con v Labour leader front the lawyer has always won.
In short, being a lawyer helps win general elections when you're up against a non lawyer.
lawyer v lawyer election since Blair v Howard.
Barclay or Braverman would
also be the first Cambridge
educated Tory leaders since
Howard too (and in Braverman's case the
Sorbonne)0 -
Weren't we due the result about 10 minutes ago?0
-
Doctored in mathematicswilliamglenn said:
And Braverman went to the Sorbonne.HYUFD said:
Barclay and Braverman were lawyerswilliamglenn said:
Based on TSE's theory, the Tories need to find someone like Bill Cash.Farooq said:
It'll be fascinating to find out who Starmer will be facingTheScreamingEagles said:
Apart from Wilson, all of Labour's majority leaders have been lawyers since the war.williamglenn said:
I'm not seeing how lawyer fits into this equation.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.Farooq said:This result is going to help Labour in the other by-elections down south, isn't it?
It will reinforce the belief that Starmer = Lawyer = Winner.
When a lawyer has taken on a non lawyer in a Con v Labour leader front the lawyer has always won.
In short, being a lawyer helps win general elections when you're up against a non lawyer.
She could have been a don
She can program a computer
Choose the perfect time
If you've got the inclination
She has got the crime
1 -
Bodes well for the by election there toowilliamglenn said:Good result for Labour in Tamworth
https://x.com/journoontheedge/status/17100683889391003380 -
How did the atypical Wednesday results yesterday go?williamglenn said:Good result for Labour in Tamworth
https://x.com/journoontheedge/status/17100683889391003380 -
Genius caller on radio requests Burns'
My love is like a red red rose
🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹0 -
Reform getting 6% in this ward suggests they might have an outside chance of saving their deposit at the Westminster by-election. The ward is fairly typical of the seat as a whole.HYUFD said:
Bodes well for the by election there toowilliamglenn said:Good result for Labour in Tamworth
https://x.com/journoontheedge/status/17100683889391003381 -
Donna
Donna Summers not such hot stuff baby this evening.HYUFD said:
Bodes well for the by election there toowilliamglenn said:Good result for Labour in Tamworth
https://x.com/journoontheedge/status/17100683889391003381 -
It's a fairly good result for Labour in Tamworth, but I wouldn't describe it as outstanding.williamglenn said:Good result for Labour in Tamworth
https://x.com/journoontheedge/status/17100683889391003381 -
Two votes for Margaret Ferrier amongst the spoiled ballot papers in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West byelection
https://twitter.com/KieranPAndrews/status/17100865898067645430 -
Maybe this delay is being caused by the Tories hovering around the 5% lost deposit mark.0
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3.9% Con to Lab swing from the 2023 ward result.Andy_JS said:
It's a fairly good result for Labour in Tamworth, but I wouldn't describe it as outstanding.williamglenn said:Good result for Labour in Tamworth
https://x.com/journoontheedge/status/1710068388939100338
Across the constituency, Labour looked to have led by 0.2%* in the LE 2023 round
* some error in that as part wards were scaled.1 -
Here we go.0
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Kaboom.0
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Offfftt0
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31% win.0
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Lab 17,839
SNP 8,399
Con 1,192
LD 895
Green 601
Reform 403
Family 319
SSP 271
Ind Scot 207
TUSC 178
Lab maj 9,4400 -
Humsa Useless0
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SNP well and truly stepmommed0
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OMG0
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OOOF0
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Just shy of 18% swing.0
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SNP wipeout a possibility?0
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SNP well and truly stepmommed0
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Wow. Looks like almost all the Tory vote went tactical.0
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A very handy win for Labour. Well above expectations.0
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I make it 20.35% swing.Pro_Rata said:Just shy of 18% swing.
0 -
Seems to suggest Panelbase and R&W are the gold standard Scotland polling0
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Lab 58%, SNP 27%, Con 3.9%1
This discussion has been closed.