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Is LAB going to make a by-election gain tonight? – politicalbetting.com

There has been very little coverage of this election simply because it looks like a near certainty for Starmer’s party.
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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/05/keir-starmer-will-not-commit-reverse-rishi-sunak-hs2-cut/
I actually went to the Mount Washington Hotel in Bretton Woods this summer. And I got some photos of the rooms where the (original) Bretton Woods conference was held.
It was - candidly - a bit musty and disappointing. It might be fun to go during ski season.
What I do know is that someone I know who lives in the constituency and used to work for the SNP has voted Labour
I sound like BJO
John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
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1h
The one thing Keir Starmer must do to avoid the traps laid by the Tories. Me for
@indypremium
So much clutching at straws. Snap out of it. A Labour Party that maybe wins an election in maybe a year and promises to buy back the land, hire back the engineers, reopen the closed factories, etc... (all at huge cost) just isn't a big enough promise to make private capital wait.
https://twitter.com/thomasforth/status/1710003934226513971
So much easier to destroy than to create.
Mr Sunak, if you seek your memorial, look around...
Labour leader Keir Starmer unveiled plans for an extra 700,000 emergency appointments to stop 'horror stories of DIY dentistry' after reports of patients yanking out their teeth
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/supervised-toothbrushing-schools-under-labour-31115571
More important perhaps than a single thing that happened in Manchester this week.
For if he gains it from the SNP with a significant swing it means he can get a comfortable UK majority helped by gains from the SNP even without gaining longer shot Tory seats like the latter in England
So SLAB win of around 2000 votes on a low turnout says Poodledamus.
This pleases me:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-66113524
For the SNP, it will either show their rebels that they need to take action or show that there are enough SNP votes to make their rebellion pointless.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/04/financial-crisis-political-class-lies/
So in a sense he deserves much longer than he got. OTOH the judge (who was careful and compassionate) clearly took the view that on and off he was as mad as a box of frogs.
My own view is that what he encompassed was so dangerous that he should have got life but with a shorter minimum term, so that the public could have a rest from his activities for the rest of his life if needed.
Dependent on turnout, I reckon that would be 2400-3000 Lab majority.
But I suspect a lower swing will apply, and a margin of around 6%, say 1350-1800.
1650 my guess, which admittedly is herding a bit.
Above 3000, 12% win = very good result for Labour
Below 1000 or a loss = iffy -> bad result for Labour
Aside from that - 10%+ swing to Labour is what they need.
https://x.com/calvinrobinson/status/1709718793566429342?s=20
2^5 × 163-1
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/11/bank-of-england-bond-sales-creating-a-selling-gold-at-the-bottom-moment.html
“It’s unclear to us why the Bank has been so hasty. The fast pace of these sales has been pushing down on gilt prices, it’s been worsening the losses for the taxpayer, and worse, it crystallizes what would have been paper losses into a drain that the U.K. Treasury has to make good,” Mahon said.
“For markets, the pace of such hefty selling pressure by the U.K. central bank is in our view, one factor why gilts have struggled this year and struggled to find buyers.”
This potentially dwarves any fiscal spending commitments, and there's no return. It is literally national suicide, and no Government in its right mind would consent to it.
Was the joke funny? Yes. Should a Prime Minister tell it? No. Is it a criminal offence? No, or we’re all ######.
However gains from the SNP by the Tories ensured she had a UK wide majority with the DUP and Corbyn could not try and form a Labour + SNP + LD + Green + PC government
"No HS2 = no ambition for our country just when the whole world is looking at us. Now is a time to be AMBITIOUS! #GreatDecision"
https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1227259322540994560?t=fxoZLLpkWo5EM3TvDN4hhQ&s=19
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*SEC INVESTIGATING MUSK OVER 2022 PURCHASES OF TWITTER STOCK
It’s pretty much bad for the country for the Tories to announce sensible policies now, because they act of them announcing them could make them unpopular. I wouldn’t be that surprised if the Tories coming out against smoking doubles the number of smokers.
Well, the good news for election watchers who like to stay up late for the count is that this result should come through quickly. The South Lanarkshire returning officer has for decades run one of the UK’s fastest counting teams, and Rutherglen and Hamilton West regularly returns the first Scottish result on general election night. In December 2019, the declaration here came at 01:24. We can expect no messing about this time either.
So given turnout will be lower than a GE we might get a result, or rumours of such, before lights out.
But I bloody love watching New Zealand.]
Sure, NZ v Uruguay is a mismatch, and I have a lot of sympathy and admiration for the Uruguayans' pluck.
But NZ are just bloody brilliant. Sparkling and entertaining and by and large don't seem to be horrible people.
It was a true comment, an earthquake swarm is ongoing and the ground west of Naples is moving day to day like a large slow-motion bouncy castle.
The civil emergencies minister has released £50m in funding to be spent over the next 90 days on surveys and emergency evacuation planning and drills.
The considered likely scenario is not that the supervolcano as such goes up, more like the 1538 creation of 123m Monte Nuovo as described here. I'm imagining it as sort of similar to a Surtsey (ed) type event, again likely to be around the settlement of Pozzuoli.
https://www.geo.mtu.edu/volcanoes/boris/mirror/mirrored_html/Montenuovo.html
2019: 1:25am
2017: 1:12am
2015: 2:50am
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mVF_IPhgNgMar-oH3Q4XhWJnpVt4UiECLkFhDIXwZlY/edit?pli=1#gid=0
None of the land or legal powers even existed 10 years ago, and there's only so much disposal of land and contracts that can be done in 12 months, and he could still resurrect the bill even if the powers lapsed to reignite it.
He just doesn't want to.
The triple lock
No to Scottish Independence
Scrapping HS2 to Manchester and investing in the North infrastructure
2 child benefit policy
Fiscal conservatism
Maybe others can add to this list