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Is LAB going to make a by-election gain tonight? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,651
edited October 2023 in General
imageIs LAB going to make a by-election gain tonight? – politicalbetting.com

There has been very little coverage of this election simply because it looks like a near certainty for Starmer’s party.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,339
    edited October 2023
    First like Labour?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,339
    edited October 2023
    Edit
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    First without an edit!
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,896
    So after all that, Labour are going to do exactly the same. Come on Labour, pull your fingers out:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/05/keir-starmer-will-not-commit-reverse-rishi-sunak-hs2-cut/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,245
    geoffw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, anyone can go to the World Economic Forum. Tickets are expensive, but this isn't like Bohemian Grove or the Bilderberg Group, which are closed invite only events.

    I'm waiting for my invitation from the Mont Pelerin Society to their Bretton Woods conference later this month

    That would be a fun conference. And I suspect you could snag yourself an invite by just emailing them and asking if you could go.

    I actually went to the Mount Washington Hotel in Bretton Woods this summer. And I got some photos of the rooms where the (original) Bretton Woods conference was held.

    It was - candidly - a bit musty and disappointing. It might be fun to go during ski season.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,678
    Benpointer said:

    First without an edit!

    Wait, I see an edit in your post.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,113
    Cookie said:

    So after all that, Labour are going to do exactly the same. Come on Labour, pull your fingers out:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/05/keir-starmer-will-not-commit-reverse-rishi-sunak-hs2-cut/

    See previuous thread. DT telling porkies.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    RobD said:

    Benpointer said:

    First without an edit!

    Wait, I see an edit in your post.
    Yebbut... I can't edit that out now :(
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,245
    I think Labour will win by around 1,500 to 2,000 votes.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    I'll stick with my Labour +4800 majority
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,712
    HUGE by election for LAB tonight. LAB need the 10% majority to look like they are back in Scotland. I think they will get it.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Cookie said:

    So after all that, Labour are going to do exactly the same. Come on Labour, pull your fingers out:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/05/keir-starmer-will-not-commit-reverse-rishi-sunak-hs2-cut/

    Starmer is being smart. Side-stepping all the (rather pathetic) traps that Sunak is desperately trying to set.
  • RogertrentRogertrent Posts: 41
    Surely snp are damaged goods after the Sturgeon debacle.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    FPT
    DavidL said:

    Does anyone know when Rutherglen is counting? It is the most important by-election in Scotland for a very long time.

    The Times speculate the result will be between 1am to 2am.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,339
    Benpointer said:

    First without an edit!

    Sorry about that, edited and re-edited. Actually, from a position of mostly ignorance I wonder if at those %s the value lies with SNP.

    What I do know is that someone I know who lives in the constituency and used to work for the SNP has voted Labour
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,339
    Cookie said:

    So after all that, Labour are going to do exactly the same. Come on Labour, pull your fingers out:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/05/keir-starmer-will-not-commit-reverse-rishi-sunak-hs2-cut/

    Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    edited October 2023
    Cookie said:

    So after all that, Labour are going to do exactly the same. Come on Labour, pull your fingers out:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/05/keir-starmer-will-not-commit-reverse-rishi-sunak-hs2-cut/

    Conservative policies without the "Conservative" swivel-eyed loons? Perhaps the slogan will be "Want Tory, vote Labour"?

    I sound like BJO :D:D
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,767
    My prediction for tonight: Labour +3800. (it's a guess, no inside knowledge)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,575
    What I said earlier... :smile:

    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    The one thing Keir Starmer must do to avoid the traps laid by the Tories. Me for ⁦
    @indypremium
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,573
    Heathener said:

    Cookie said:

    So after all that, Labour are going to do exactly the same. Come on Labour, pull your fingers out:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/05/keir-starmer-will-not-commit-reverse-rishi-sunak-hs2-cut/

    Starmer is being smart. Side-stepping all the (rather pathetic) traps that Sunak is desperately trying to set.
    And unfortunately, this is true, isn't it?

    So much clutching at straws. Snap out of it. A Labour Party that maybe wins an election in maybe a year and promises to buy back the land, hire back the engineers, reopen the closed factories, etc... (all at huge cost) just isn't a big enough promise to make private capital wait.

    https://twitter.com/thomasforth/status/1710003934226513971

    So much easier to destroy than to create.

    Mr Sunak, if you seek your memorial, look around...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,482
    Supervised toothbrushing in schools under Labour plan to 'rescue' NHS dentistry
    Labour leader Keir Starmer unveiled plans for an extra 700,000 emergency appointments to stop 'horror stories of DIY dentistry' after reports of patients yanking out their teeth
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/supervised-toothbrushing-schools-under-labour-31115571
  • RogertrentRogertrent Posts: 41
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Supervised toothbrushing in schools under Labour plan to 'rescue' NHS dentistry
    Labour leader Keir Starmer unveiled plans for an extra 700,000 emergency appointments to stop 'horror stories of DIY dentistry' after reports of patients yanking out their teeth
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/supervised-toothbrushing-schools-under-labour-31115571

    NHS dentistry is a complete disgrace now.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,214
    Yesterday Ed Davey made his 6th visit to Mid Bedfordshire. When did Keir Starmer last visit? Just saying.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,464
    I expect Labour to win Rutherglen by between 6,000 and 10,000 depending on turnout. I expect Labour to take between 60% and 70% of the vote. I expect the Conservatives to lose their deposit.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,738
    Benpointer said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Wait - Rutherglen is tonight?

    I believe it's there more or less permanently but the by-election count is tonight.
    OK, my prediction: Labour by 2,000
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,575
    Definitely a huge by-election as @londonpubman says.

    More important perhaps than a single thing that happened in Manchester this week.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,738
    Casino_Royale said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Good evening

    Starmer confirms he will follow Sunak's plans and not reinstate HS2 but invest in the North

    I assume that ends any prospect of it being built

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/05/keir-starmer-will-not-commit-reverse-rishi-sunak-hs2-cut/

    How depressing.

    Starmer is a follower, not a leader.

    None of this should surprise anyone.

    Expect absolutely nothing new from him in office.
    :innocent:


    Sunil, this wasn't funny the 234th time you posted it and is even less so now.
    Just Keep Calmer, Casino. Just Keep Calmer :lol:
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,712
    rottenborough said:

    Definitely a huge by-election as @londonpubman says.

    More important perhaps than a single thing that happened in Manchester this week.

    Correct. On the whole by elections don't matter but this one matters more than most.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    algarkirk said:

    Cookie said:

    So after all that, Labour are going to do exactly the same. Come on Labour, pull your fingers out:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/05/keir-starmer-will-not-commit-reverse-rishi-sunak-hs2-cut/

    Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.
    Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.
  • PoodleInASlipstreamPoodleInASlipstream Posts: 474
    rcs1000 said:

    I think Labour will win by around 1,500 to 2,000 votes.

    I would dearly love SLAB to smash the SNP, but I suspect that's about right. Lots of people are sick of the SNP clown show, but my feeling is many of them are not enthusiastic about Starmer's Labour and will just stay at home - the minging weather may also be a factor in that.

    So SLAB win of around 2000 votes on a low turnout says Poodledamus.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    I expect Starmer will make some announcement at the Labour conference that goes further in terms of the plans announced by Sunak .

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,186
    Ah, an actual conviction for treason - first in over 40 years.

    This pleases me:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-66113524
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    HYUFD said:

    In some respects Rutherglen is more important for Starmer than Mid Beds and Tamworth.

    For if he gains it from the SNP with a significant swing it means he can get a comfortable UK majority helped by gains from the SNP even without gaining longer shot Tory seats like the latter in England

    True, there’s certainly a lot riding on tonight’s by-election . I think the leak regarding the police station closures in the constituency finished off any chance for the SNP in getting a miracle result .
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,896
    Anabobazina said:

    algarkirk said:

    Cookie said:

    So after all that, Labour are going to do exactly the same. Come on Labour, pull your fingers out:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/05/keir-starmer-will-not-commit-reverse-rishi-sunak-hs2-cut/

    Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.
    Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.
    But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the money
  • RogertrentRogertrent Posts: 41
    HYUFD said:

    In some respects Rutherglen is more important for Starmer than Mid Beds and Tamworth.

    For if he gains it from the SNP with a significant swing it means he can get a comfortable UK majority helped by gains from the SNP even without gaining longer shot Tory seats like the latter in England

    Remember it was only Scotland that prevented a Jeremy Corbyn Govt in 2017.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,896
    Cookie said:

    Anabobazina said:

    algarkirk said:

    Cookie said:

    So after all that, Labour are going to do exactly the same. Come on Labour, pull your fingers out:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/05/keir-starmer-will-not-commit-reverse-rishi-sunak-hs2-cut/

    Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.
    Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.
    But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the money
    ... saved from HS2 on other transport projects.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Cookie said:

    Anabobazina said:

    algarkirk said:

    Cookie said:

    So after all that, Labour are going to do exactly the same. Come on Labour, pull your fingers out:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/05/keir-starmer-will-not-commit-reverse-rishi-sunak-hs2-cut/

    Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.
    Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.
    But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the money
    These budgets will over run and I don’t see even half of those projects seeing the light of day .
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,760
    Casino_Royale said:

    Ah, an actual conviction for treason - first in over 40 years.

    This pleases me:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-66113524

    Starmer has had a shocker on PB today, but I'd stop short of treason...just!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,151
    Casino_Royale said:

    Ah, an actual conviction for treason - first in over 40 years.

    This pleases me:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-66113524

    I'm disappointed it wasn't Cummings though.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,482
    Rogertrent said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Supervised toothbrushing in schools under Labour plan to 'rescue' NHS dentistry
    Labour leader Keir Starmer unveiled plans for an extra 700,000 emergency appointments to stop 'horror stories of DIY dentistry' after reports of patients yanking out their teeth
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/supervised-toothbrushing-schools-under-labour-31115571

    NHS dentistry is a complete disgrace now.
    NHS dentistry has been a complete mess for years and is effectively unavailable in some parts of the country. This could prove a very popular move if Labour can fix it, which I doubt. Supervised toothbrushing in schools sounds a bit of a gimmick but would be almost free and not involve conjuring up hundreds more dentists. Is there an actual plan for the hard part? We'll see.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,464
    edited October 2023
    HYUFD said:

    In some respects Rutherglen is more important for Starmer than Mid Beds and Tamworth.

    For if he gains it from the SNP with a significant swing it means he can get a comfortable UK majority helped by gains from the SNP even without gaining longer shot Tory seats like the latter in England

    In a way, it is also very important for Ed Davey. It will give him an indication of how many seats the Lib Dems will need to win to be the third largest party after the next GE, and also an indication of the chances of Labour needing the Lib Dems to run a majority government, either with or without a formal agreement.
    For the SNP, it will either show their rebels that they need to take action or show that there are enough SNP votes to make their rebellion pointless.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Supervised toothbrushing in schools under Labour plan to 'rescue' NHS dentistry
    Labour leader Keir Starmer unveiled plans for an extra 700,000 emergency appointments to stop 'horror stories of DIY dentistry' after reports of patients yanking out their teeth
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/supervised-toothbrushing-schools-under-labour-31115571

    DIY dentistry in the sense of looking after your own teeth is something we need more of. Seeing a dentist every six months can't make up for neglect the rest of the time.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,595
    edited October 2023
    Cookie said:

    Anabobazina said:

    algarkirk said:

    Cookie said:

    So after all that, Labour are going to do exactly the same. Come on Labour, pull your fingers out:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/05/keir-starmer-will-not-commit-reverse-rishi-sunak-hs2-cut/

    Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.
    Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.
    But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the money
    This article should be read by everyone interested in politics and economics

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/04/financial-crisis-political-class-lies/
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,339
    Casino_Royale said:

    Ah, an actual conviction for treason - first in over 40 years.

    This pleases me:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-66113524

    A difficult case for charging and sentence. Despite the emphasis in the reports he has not been charged with attempted murder (he didn't get far enough along his plan). And actually if he had been it is quite possible that a life sentence with a massive minimum term would be required - for what attempted murder could be more serious than that of HM QEII?

    So in a sense he deserves much longer than he got. OTOH the judge (who was careful and compassionate) clearly took the view that on and off he was as mad as a box of frogs.

    My own view is that what he encompassed was so dangerous that he should have got life but with a shorter minimum term, so that the public could have a rest from his activities for the rest of his life if needed.

  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,721
    The swing seen in Scottish local by-elections would suggest Labour reversing the %ages on a 10% swing.

    Dependent on turnout, I reckon that would be 2400-3000 Lab majority.

    But I suspect a lower swing will apply, and a margin of around 6%, say 1350-1800.

    1650 my guess, which admittedly is herding a bit.

    Above 3000, 12% win = very good result for Labour
    Below 1000 or a loss = iffy -> bad result for Labour
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,464
    nico679 said:

    HYUFD said:

    In some respects Rutherglen is more important for Starmer than Mid Beds and Tamworth.

    For if he gains it from the SNP with a significant swing it means he can get a comfortable UK majority helped by gains from the SNP even without gaining longer shot Tory seats like the latter in England

    True, there’s certainly a lot riding on tonight’s by-election . I think the leak regarding the police station closures in the constituency finished off any chance for the SNP in getting a miracle result .
    I wonder whether the U turn by North Lanarkshire Council regarding closure of Leisure Centres, libraries, etc., was in response to negative comments to Labour canvassers in the adjoining council area.
  • RogertrentRogertrent Posts: 41
    williamglenn said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Supervised toothbrushing in schools under Labour plan to 'rescue' NHS dentistry
    Labour leader Keir Starmer unveiled plans for an extra 700,000 emergency appointments to stop 'horror stories of DIY dentistry' after reports of patients yanking out their teeth
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/supervised-toothbrushing-schools-under-labour-31115571

    DIY dentistry in the sense of looking after your own teeth is something we need more of. Seeing a dentist every six months can't make up for neglect the rest of the time.
    Electric toothbrush plus flossing and fluoride mouthwash is way. Plus xylotol chewing gum which kills bad bacteria in mouth.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,738
    slade said:

    Yesterday Ed Davey made his 6th visit to Mid Bedfordshire. When did Keir Starmer last visit? Just saying.

    Ed who? :lol:
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,712
    Keir can (probably) present the new MP for Rutherglen at the conference. The delegates will love it!
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,269
    Rogertrent said:

    williamglenn said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Supervised toothbrushing in schools under Labour plan to 'rescue' NHS dentistry
    Labour leader Keir Starmer unveiled plans for an extra 700,000 emergency appointments to stop 'horror stories of DIY dentistry' after reports of patients yanking out their teeth
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/supervised-toothbrushing-schools-under-labour-31115571

    DIY dentistry in the sense of looking after your own teeth is something we need more of. Seeing a dentist every six months can't make up for neglect the rest of the time.
    Electric toothbrush plus flossing and fluoride mouthwash is way. Plus xylotol chewing gum which kills bad bacteria in mouth.
    My dental hygienist says you shouldn't use mouthwash. But should use an electric toothbrush. The dentist says the opposite. I keep having to lie to both of them about my tooth-care regime in one way or another.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,718
    Labour to win Rutherglen. By 5,216 votes.
  • Clutch_BromptonClutch_Brompton Posts: 770
    Lab in Rutherglen by about 2,500 (depending on the T/O). I am happy to call this a total guess
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    SNP by 400.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,269
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Rogertrent said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Supervised toothbrushing in schools under Labour plan to 'rescue' NHS dentistry
    Labour leader Keir Starmer unveiled plans for an extra 700,000 emergency appointments to stop 'horror stories of DIY dentistry' after reports of patients yanking out their teeth
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/supervised-toothbrushing-schools-under-labour-31115571

    NHS dentistry is a complete disgrace now.
    NHS dentistry has been a complete mess for years and is effectively unavailable in some parts of the country. This could prove a very popular move if Labour can fix it, which I doubt. Supervised toothbrushing in schools sounds a bit of a gimmick but would be almost free and not involve conjuring up hundreds more dentists. Is there an actual plan for the hard part? We'll see.
    My dentist is Polish and has remarked more than once on how appalled he is by our teeth-brushing technique. "You go side-to-side? ... God. It's no wonder...."
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,712
    kle4 said:

    SNP by 400.

    Don't tell Keir!
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,269
    HYUFD said:

    In some respects Rutherglen is more important for Starmer than Mid Beds and Tamworth.

    For if he gains it from the SNP with a significant swing it means he can get a comfortable UK majority helped by gains from the SNP even without gaining longer shot Tory seats like the latter in England

    You main 'Sarwar', not 'Starmer', surely?...

    Aside from that - 10%+ swing to Labour is what they need.
  • RogertrentRogertrent Posts: 41
    Calvin Robinson calling Sky News Sly News live on air to Mark Austin.

    https://x.com/calvinrobinson/status/1709718793566429342?s=20
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    williamglenn said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Supervised toothbrushing in schools under Labour plan to 'rescue' NHS dentistry
    Labour leader Keir Starmer unveiled plans for an extra 700,000 emergency appointments to stop 'horror stories of DIY dentistry' after reports of patients yanking out their teeth
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/supervised-toothbrushing-schools-under-labour-31115571

    DIY dentistry in the sense of looking after your own teeth is something we need more of. Seeing a dentist every six months can't make up for neglect the rest of the time.
    True enough. My teeth look pretty bad (legacy of poor care in younger days), but I've got relatives whose currently look better yet are actually in a far more perilous state due to neglect. Ten years and the situation won't be close.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,188
    Rogertrent said:

    HYUFD said:

    In some respects Rutherglen is more important for Starmer than Mid Beds and Tamworth.

    For if he gains it from the SNP with a significant swing it means he can get a comfortable UK majority helped by gains from the SNP even without gaining longer shot Tory seats like the latter in England

    Remember it was only Scotland that prevented a Jeremy Corbyn Govt in 2017.
    Not that the Scottish Tories got any thanks - May preferred to cosy up to the DUP instead.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,339
    kle4 said:

    SNP by 400.

    I lack the certainty of the markets about Rutherglen. SNP could do it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,595
    Police Scotland say that no police action is being taken after a complaint had been made about Rishi Sunak's comment about Nicola Sturgeon
  • RogertrentRogertrent Posts: 41
    kle4 said:

    williamglenn said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Supervised toothbrushing in schools under Labour plan to 'rescue' NHS dentistry
    Labour leader Keir Starmer unveiled plans for an extra 700,000 emergency appointments to stop 'horror stories of DIY dentistry' after reports of patients yanking out their teeth
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/supervised-toothbrushing-schools-under-labour-31115571

    DIY dentistry in the sense of looking after your own teeth is something we need more of. Seeing a dentist every six months can't make up for neglect the rest of the time.
    True enough. My teeth look pretty bad (legacy of poor care in younger days), but I've got relatives whose currently look better yet are actually in a far more perilous state due to neglect. Ten years and the situation won't be close.
    Gum health also important as its leading cause of tooth loss.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,208
     
    Cyclefree said:

    Labour to win Rutherglen. By 5,216 votes.

    Nah
    2^5 × 163-1
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited October 2023
    ohnotnow said:

    HYUFD said:

    In some respects Rutherglen is more important for Starmer than Mid Beds and Tamworth.

    For if he gains it from the SNP with a significant swing it means he can get a comfortable UK majority helped by gains from the SNP even without gaining longer shot Tory seats like the latter in England

    You main 'Sarwar', not 'Starmer', surely?...

    Aside from that - 10%+ swing to Labour is what they need.
    Yes there are some rather Anglo-centric, London-centric, comments about this. Keir Starmer is a lot less important to Labour in Scotland than Anas Sarwar. We're talking about the Scottish Labour Party.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,941
    ohnotnow said:

    HYUFD said:

    In some respects Rutherglen is more important for Starmer than Mid Beds and Tamworth.

    For if he gains it from the SNP with a significant swing it means he can get a comfortable UK majority helped by gains from the SNP even without gaining longer shot Tory seats like the latter in England

    You main 'Sarwar', not 'Starmer', surely?...

    Aside from that - 10%+ swing to Labour is what they need.
    No, Starmer. He needs gains from the SNP to get a clear UK majority and become UK PM as much as Sarwar needs big gains from the SNP to become FM
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,440
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Cookie said:

    Anabobazina said:

    algarkirk said:

    Cookie said:

    So after all that, Labour are going to do exactly the same. Come on Labour, pull your fingers out:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/05/keir-starmer-will-not-commit-reverse-rishi-sunak-hs2-cut/

    Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.
    Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.
    But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the money
    This article should be read by everyone interested in politics and economics

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/04/financial-crisis-political-class-lies/
    I agree with that, it is the responsible thing to do, but you have to contrast this with the Chancellor (with, one assumes, Sunak's assent) continuing to enable the bizarre behaviour of the BOE by indemnifying their lunatic bond sell off.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/11/bank-of-england-bond-sales-creating-a-selling-gold-at-the-bottom-moment.html

    Columbia Threadneedle’s analysis suggests that the pace of bond sales is 70% faster than that of the U.S. Federal Reserve and around twice the rate of the European Central Bank.

    “It’s unclear to us why the Bank has been so hasty. The fast pace of these sales has been pushing down on gilt prices, it’s been worsening the losses for the taxpayer, and worse, it crystallizes what would have been paper losses into a drain that the U.K. Treasury has to make good,” Mahon said.

    “For markets, the pace of such hefty selling pressure by the U.K. central bank is in our view, one factor why gilts have struggled this year and struggled to find buyers.”


    This potentially dwarves any fiscal spending commitments, and there's no return. It is literally national suicide, and no Government in its right mind would consent to it.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,767
    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    SNP by 400.

    I lack the certainty of the markets about Rutherglen. SNP could do it.
    Trading bet at 30-1 may be worth considering then - but Labour seem super-confident, with no expectation management at all.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,208
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Police Scotland say that no police action is being taken after a complaint had been made about Rishi Sunak's comment about Nicola Sturgeon

    Can't they get the complainant for wasting police time?

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,764
    Rogertrent said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Supervised toothbrushing in schools under Labour plan to 'rescue' NHS dentistry
    Labour leader Keir Starmer unveiled plans for an extra 700,000 emergency appointments to stop 'horror stories of DIY dentistry' after reports of patients yanking out their teeth
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/supervised-toothbrushing-schools-under-labour-31115571

    NHS dentistry is a complete disgrace now.
    I don't think it really exists. A lot of elective surgery is going the same way.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,924
    NickPalmer said:

    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    SNP by 400.

    I lack the certainty of the markets about Rutherglen. SNP could do it.
    Trading bet at 30-1 may be worth considering then - but Labour seem super-confident, with no expectation management at all.
    There wasn’t much expectation management in Uxbridge either from what I saw, although the runes were much more easily readable there.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,833
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Police Scotland say that no police action is being taken after a complaint had been made about Rishi Sunak's comment about Nicola Sturgeon

    One of those non-stories that never should have been reported in that way.

    Was the joke funny? Yes. Should a Prime Minister tell it? No. Is it a criminal offence? No, or we’re all ######.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,941
    Rogertrent said:

    HYUFD said:

    In some respects Rutherglen is more important for Starmer than Mid Beds and Tamworth.

    For if he gains it from the SNP with a significant swing it means he can get a comfortable UK majority helped by gains from the SNP even without gaining longer shot Tory seats like the latter in England

    Remember it was only Scotland that prevented a Jeremy Corbyn Govt in 2017.
    Not really, May won a majority in England in 2017.

    However gains from the SNP by the Tories ensured she had a UK wide majority with the DUP and Corbyn could not try and form a Labour + SNP + LD + Green + PC government
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,440
    kle4 said:

    williamglenn said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Supervised toothbrushing in schools under Labour plan to 'rescue' NHS dentistry
    Labour leader Keir Starmer unveiled plans for an extra 700,000 emergency appointments to stop 'horror stories of DIY dentistry' after reports of patients yanking out their teeth
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/supervised-toothbrushing-schools-under-labour-31115571

    DIY dentistry in the sense of looking after your own teeth is something we need more of. Seeing a dentist every six months can't make up for neglect the rest of the time.
    True enough. My teeth look pretty bad (legacy of poor care in younger days), but I've got relatives whose currently look better yet are actually in a far more perilous state due to neglect. Ten years and the situation won't be close.
    Get a sonic toothbrush - they're cheap now, you can pick one up for twenty quid online, and you'll be amazed at the improvement even if you think your teeth are past help.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,833
    ohnotnow said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Rogertrent said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Supervised toothbrushing in schools under Labour plan to 'rescue' NHS dentistry
    Labour leader Keir Starmer unveiled plans for an extra 700,000 emergency appointments to stop 'horror stories of DIY dentistry' after reports of patients yanking out their teeth
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/supervised-toothbrushing-schools-under-labour-31115571

    NHS dentistry is a complete disgrace now.
    NHS dentistry has been a complete mess for years and is effectively unavailable in some parts of the country. This could prove a very popular move if Labour can fix it, which I doubt. Supervised toothbrushing in schools sounds a bit of a gimmick but would be almost free and not involve conjuring up hundreds more dentists. Is there an actual plan for the hard part? We'll see.
    My dentist is Polish and has remarked more than once on how appalled he is by our teeth-brushing technique. "You go side-to-side? ... God. It's no wonder...."
    Who goes side to side? How would that even work?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,482
    williamglenn said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Supervised toothbrushing in schools under Labour plan to 'rescue' NHS dentistry
    Labour leader Keir Starmer unveiled plans for an extra 700,000 emergency appointments to stop 'horror stories of DIY dentistry' after reports of patients yanking out their teeth
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/supervised-toothbrushing-schools-under-labour-31115571

    DIY dentistry in the sense of looking after your own teeth is something we need more of. Seeing a dentist every six months can't make up for neglect the rest of the time.
    Agreed but what we now have in some parts of the country is DIY dentistry with string and a door.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,595
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Cookie said:

    Anabobazina said:

    algarkirk said:

    Cookie said:

    So after all that, Labour are going to do exactly the same. Come on Labour, pull your fingers out:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/05/keir-starmer-will-not-commit-reverse-rishi-sunak-hs2-cut/

    Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.
    Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.
    But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the money
    This article should be read by everyone interested in politics and economics

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/04/financial-crisis-political-class-lies/
    I agree with that, it is the responsible thing to do, but you have to contrast this with the Chancellor (with, one assumes, Sunak's assent) continuing to enable the bizarre behaviour of the BOE by indemnifying their lunatic bond sell off.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/11/bank-of-england-bond-sales-creating-a-selling-gold-at-the-bottom-moment.html

    Columbia Threadneedle’s analysis suggests that the pace of bond sales is 70% faster than that of the U.S. Federal Reserve and around twice the rate of the European Central Bank.

    “It’s unclear to us why the Bank has been so hasty. The fast pace of these sales has been pushing down on gilt prices, it’s been worsening the losses for the taxpayer, and worse, it crystallizes what would have been paper losses into a drain that the U.K. Treasury has to make good,” Mahon said.

    “For markets, the pace of such hefty selling pressure by the U.K. central bank is in our view, one factor why gilts have struggled this year and struggled to find buyers.”


    This potentially dwarves any fiscal spending commitments, and there's no return. It is literally national suicide, and no Government in its right mind would consent to it.
    The BOE have had a big part in this and not in a positive manner
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,764
    FPT
    williamglenn said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Labour cannot promise HS2 to Manchester says Starmer to the BBC

    BBC News - Labour can not promise HS2 to Manchester - Keir Starmer
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67016873

    Awkward

    image
    It is indeed:

    "No HS2 = no ambition for our country just when the whole world is looking at us. Now is a time to be AMBITIOUS! #GreatDecision"

    https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1227259322540994560?t=fxoZLLpkWo5EM3TvDN4hhQ&s=19
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,764
    SNP by 250
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,771
    @IGcom
    ·
    *SEC INVESTIGATING MUSK OVER 2022 PURCHASES OF TWITTER STOCK
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,440
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Cookie said:

    Anabobazina said:

    algarkirk said:

    Cookie said:

    So after all that, Labour are going to do exactly the same. Come on Labour, pull your fingers out:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/05/keir-starmer-will-not-commit-reverse-rishi-sunak-hs2-cut/

    Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.
    Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.
    But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the money
    This article should be read by everyone interested in politics and economics

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/04/financial-crisis-political-class-lies/
    I agree with that, it is the responsible thing to do, but you have to contrast this with the Chancellor (with, one assumes, Sunak's assent) continuing to enable the bizarre behaviour of the BOE by indemnifying their lunatic bond sell off.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/11/bank-of-england-bond-sales-creating-a-selling-gold-at-the-bottom-moment.html

    Columbia Threadneedle’s analysis suggests that the pace of bond sales is 70% faster than that of the U.S. Federal Reserve and around twice the rate of the European Central Bank.

    “It’s unclear to us why the Bank has been so hasty. The fast pace of these sales has been pushing down on gilt prices, it’s been worsening the losses for the taxpayer, and worse, it crystallizes what would have been paper losses into a drain that the U.K. Treasury has to make good,” Mahon said.

    “For markets, the pace of such hefty selling pressure by the U.K. central bank is in our view, one factor why gilts have struggled this year and struggled to find buyers.”


    This potentially dwarves any fiscal spending commitments, and there's no return. It is literally national suicide, and no Government in its right mind would consent to it.
    The BOE have had a big part in this and not in a positive manner
    I agree. And being fair, all politicians, including Starmer, Reeves, and even right wing disruptors like Truss haven't tackled it. Truss's 3 conference speech themes were 'Drop the tax, cut the bills, build the homes' - 'stop the sell-off' was conspicuous by its absence. Perhaps Truss just doesn't want the reputational damage of picking a fight with the Bank after last time. John Redwood is the only senior politician I see fighting this fight.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,833
    Foxy said:

    FPT

    williamglenn said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Labour cannot promise HS2 to Manchester says Starmer to the BBC

    BBC News - Labour can not promise HS2 to Manchester - Keir Starmer
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67016873

    Awkward

    image
    It is indeed:

    "No HS2 = no ambition for our country just when the whole world is looking at us. Now is a time to be AMBITIOUS! #GreatDecision"

    https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1227259322540994560?t=fxoZLLpkWo5EM3TvDN4hhQ&s=19
    On balance, the more I look at it, the more I think it’s about the right decision. It’s just shame it couldn’t have waited for the first Labour Budget or SR, so that the resultant projects could have a bit of political backing going into the next decade. I get the sense Starmer and co are really starting to think about actually governing in little over a year, and want to avoid hostages to fortune.

    It’s pretty much bad for the country for the Tories to announce sensible policies now, because they act of them announcing them could make them unpopular. I wouldn’t be that surprised if the Tories coming out against smoking doubles the number of smokers.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,924
    In Andrew Teale’s as usual excellent by-election briefing on Rutherglen this little nugget:

    Well, the good news for election watchers who like to stay up late for the count is that this result should come through quickly. The South Lanarkshire returning officer has for decades run one of the UK’s fastest counting teams, and Rutherglen and Hamilton West regularly returns the first Scottish result on general election night. In December 2019, the declaration here came at 01:24. We can expect no messing about this time either.

    So given turnout will be lower than a GE we might get a result, or rumours of such, before lights out.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,712
    I say it again. LAB by 10% so maj 3,000 on a 30,000 turnout (around 50% of the electorate)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    kle4 said:

    williamglenn said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Supervised toothbrushing in schools under Labour plan to 'rescue' NHS dentistry
    Labour leader Keir Starmer unveiled plans for an extra 700,000 emergency appointments to stop 'horror stories of DIY dentistry' after reports of patients yanking out their teeth
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/supervised-toothbrushing-schools-under-labour-31115571

    DIY dentistry in the sense of looking after your own teeth is something we need more of. Seeing a dentist every six months can't make up for neglect the rest of the time.
    True enough. My teeth look pretty bad (legacy of poor care in younger days), but I've got relatives whose currently look better yet are actually in a far more perilous state due to neglect. Ten years and the situation won't be close.
    Get a sonic toothbrush - they're cheap now, you can pick one up for twenty quid online, and you'll be amazed at the improvement even if you think your teeth are past help.
    I have - that's why the actual health of my teeth is, I am now assured, fine. Just ruing the impact of a few lax years at the wrong time.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,418
    If SLAB lose this it will be the worse expectations management of all time. They've effectively told everyone they're going to win this comfortably.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,712
    RandallFlagg said:

    If SLAB lose this it will be the worse expectations management of all time. They've effectively told everyone they're going to win this comfortably.

    If LAB lose it will be even more devastating than Bermondsey 1983; it will be complete meltdown 1935. LAB will win tonight. I am much more confident LAB will win tonight than they get a majority GE 2024
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,809
    Rogertrent said:

    Calvin Robinson calling Sky News Sly News live on air to Mark Austin.

    https://x.com/calvinrobinson/status/1709718793566429342?s=20

    What a plonker
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,896
    RWC: In most sports, I don't much like watching teams or players who always win, win. At best, it's boring; at worst (football) the winners are arrogant childish pricks whose talent doesn't seem to stop them feeling the need to cheat whenever the opportunity arises.
    But I bloody love watching New Zealand.]
    Sure, NZ v Uruguay is a mismatch, and I have a lot of sympathy and admiration for the Uruguayans' pluck.
    But NZ are just bloody brilliant. Sparkling and entertaining and by and large don't seem to be horrible people.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,188
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Cookie said:

    Anabobazina said:

    algarkirk said:

    Cookie said:

    So after all that, Labour are going to do exactly the same. Come on Labour, pull your fingers out:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/05/keir-starmer-will-not-commit-reverse-rishi-sunak-hs2-cut/

    Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.
    Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.
    But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the money
    This article should be read by everyone interested in politics and economics

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/04/financial-crisis-political-class-lies/
    I agree with that, it is the responsible thing to do, but you have to contrast this with the Chancellor (with, one assumes, Sunak's assent) continuing to enable the bizarre behaviour of the BOE by indemnifying their lunatic bond sell off.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/11/bank-of-england-bond-sales-creating-a-selling-gold-at-the-bottom-moment.html

    Columbia Threadneedle’s analysis suggests that the pace of bond sales is 70% faster than that of the U.S. Federal Reserve and around twice the rate of the European Central Bank.

    “It’s unclear to us why the Bank has been so hasty. The fast pace of these sales has been pushing down on gilt prices, it’s been worsening the losses for the taxpayer, and worse, it crystallizes what would have been paper losses into a drain that the U.K. Treasury has to make good,” Mahon said.

    “For markets, the pace of such hefty selling pressure by the U.K. central bank is in our view, one factor why gilts have struggled this year and struggled to find buyers.”


    This potentially dwarves any fiscal spending commitments, and there's no return. It is literally national suicide, and no Government in its right mind would consent to it.
    The BOE have had a big part in this and not in a positive manner
    I agree. And being fair, all politicians, including Starmer, Reeves, and even right wing disruptors like Truss haven't tackled it. Truss's 3 conference speech themes were 'Drop the tax, cut the bills, build the homes' - 'stop the sell-off' was conspicuous by its absence. Perhaps Truss just doesn't want the reputational damage of picking a fight with the Bank after last time. John Redwood is the only senior politician I see fighting this fight.
    It is not the job of the BOE to protect voters from the consequences of the government's stupid policies.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,898
    RandallFlagg said:

    If SLAB lose this it will be the worse expectations management of all time. They've effectively told everyone they're going to win this comfortably.

    I've wonderd about their total lack of expectation management, I believe they've used the term 'seismic'. It's got to the point that it'll be seismic if they don't win it comfortably.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,833
    No_Offence_Alan said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Cookie said:

    Anabobazina said:

    algarkirk said:

    Cookie said:

    So after all that, Labour are going to do exactly the same. Come on Labour, pull your fingers out:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/05/keir-starmer-will-not-commit-reverse-rishi-sunak-hs2-cut/

    Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.
    Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.
    But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the money
    This article should be read by everyone interested in politics and economics

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/04/financial-crisis-political-class-lies/
    I agree with that, it is the responsible thing to do, but you have to contrast this with the Chancellor (with, one assumes, Sunak's assent) continuing to enable the bizarre behaviour of the BOE by indemnifying their lunatic bond sell off.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/11/bank-of-england-bond-sales-creating-a-selling-gold-at-the-bottom-moment.html

    Columbia Threadneedle’s analysis suggests that the pace of bond sales is 70% faster than that of the U.S. Federal Reserve and around twice the rate of the European Central Bank.

    “It’s unclear to us why the Bank has been so hasty. The fast pace of these sales has been pushing down on gilt prices, it’s been worsening the losses for the taxpayer, and worse, it crystallizes what would have been paper losses into a drain that the U.K. Treasury has to make good,” Mahon said.

    “For markets, the pace of such hefty selling pressure by the U.K. central bank is in our view, one factor why gilts have struggled this year and struggled to find buyers.”


    This potentially dwarves any fiscal spending commitments, and there's no return. It is literally national suicide, and no Government in its right mind would consent to it.
    The BOE have had a big part in this and not in a positive manner
    I agree. And being fair, all politicians, including Starmer, Reeves, and even right wing disruptors like Truss haven't tackled it. Truss's 3 conference speech themes were 'Drop the tax, cut the bills, build the homes' - 'stop the sell-off' was conspicuous by its absence. Perhaps Truss just doesn't want the reputational damage of picking a fight with the Bank after last time. John Redwood is the only senior politician I see fighting this fight.
    It is not the job of the BOE to protect voters from the consequences of the government's stupid policies.
    Actually that is precisely it’s job.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,193
    Cookie said:

    So after all that, Labour are going to do exactly the same. Come on Labour, pull your fingers out:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/05/keir-starmer-will-not-commit-reverse-rishi-sunak-hs2-cut/

    This is why a lot of people are disillusioned with politicians in general. Until the Tories cancelled it, Labout was giving the distinct impression they would build the leg to Manchester.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,482
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Cookie said:

    Anabobazina said:

    algarkirk said:

    Cookie said:

    So after all that, Labour are going to do exactly the same. Come on Labour, pull your fingers out:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/05/keir-starmer-will-not-commit-reverse-rishi-sunak-hs2-cut/

    Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.
    Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.
    But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the money
    This article should be read by everyone interested in politics and economics

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/04/financial-crisis-political-class-lies/
    I agree with that, it is the responsible thing to do, but you have to contrast this with the Chancellor (with, one assumes, Sunak's assent) continuing to enable the bizarre behaviour of the BOE by indemnifying their lunatic bond sell off.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/11/bank-of-england-bond-sales-creating-a-selling-gold-at-the-bottom-moment.html

    Columbia Threadneedle’s analysis suggests that the pace of bond sales is 70% faster than that of the U.S. Federal Reserve and around twice the rate of the European Central Bank.

    “It’s unclear to us why the Bank has been so hasty. The fast pace of these sales has been pushing down on gilt prices, it’s been worsening the losses for the taxpayer, and worse, it crystallizes what would have been paper losses into a drain that the U.K. Treasury has to make good,” Mahon said.

    “For markets, the pace of such hefty selling pressure by the U.K. central bank is in our view, one factor why gilts have struggled this year and struggled to find buyers.”


    This potentially dwarves any fiscal spending commitments, and there's no return. It is literally national suicide, and no Government in its right mind would consent to it.
    The BOE have had a big part in this and not in a positive manner
    I agree. And being fair, all politicians, including Starmer, Reeves, and even right wing disruptors like Truss haven't tackled it. Truss's 3 conference speech themes were 'Drop the tax, cut the bills, build the homes' - 'stop the sell-off' was conspicuous by its absence. Perhaps Truss just doesn't want the reputational damage of picking a fight with the Bank after last time. John Redwood is the only senior politician I see fighting this fight.
    This story has been around for some time so if anyone you care to name has not picked it up, chances are they never will. Or at least, not till their opponents say anything.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,721
    edited October 2023
    I joked the other day that TSE has taken the reins just as the Campi Flegrei supervolcano started misbehaving.

    It was a true comment, an earthquake swarm is ongoing and the ground west of Naples is moving day to day like a large slow-motion bouncy castle.

    The civil emergencies minister has released £50m in funding to be spent over the next 90 days on surveys and emergency evacuation planning and drills.

    The considered likely scenario is not that the supervolcano as such goes up, more like the 1538 creation of 123m Monte Nuovo as described here. I'm imagining it as sort of similar to a Surtsey (ed) type event, again likely to be around the settlement of Pozzuoli.

    https://www.geo.mtu.edu/volcanoes/boris/mirror/mirrored_html/Montenuovo.html
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,193
    TimS said:

    In Andrew Teale’s as usual excellent by-election briefing on Rutherglen this little nugget:

    Well, the good news for election watchers who like to stay up late for the count is that this result should come through quickly. The South Lanarkshire returning officer has for decades run one of the UK’s fastest counting teams, and Rutherglen and Hamilton West regularly returns the first Scottish result on general election night. In December 2019, the declaration here came at 01:24. We can expect no messing about this time either.

    So given turnout will be lower than a GE we might get a result, or rumours of such, before lights out.

    Previous declaration times for Rutherglen & Hamilton West.

    2019: 1:25am
    2017: 1:12am
    2015: 2:50am

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mVF_IPhgNgMar-oH3Q4XhWJnpVt4UiECLkFhDIXwZlY/edit?pli=1#gid=0
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,186
    Andy_JS said:

    Cookie said:

    So after all that, Labour are going to do exactly the same. Come on Labour, pull your fingers out:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/05/keir-starmer-will-not-commit-reverse-rishi-sunak-hs2-cut/

    This is why a lot of people are disillusioned with politicians in general. Until the Tories cancelled it, Labout was giving the distinct impression they would build the leg to Manchester.
    It's nonsense, of course.

    None of the land or legal powers even existed 10 years ago, and there's only so much disposal of land and contracts that can be done in 12 months, and he could still resurrect the bill even if the powers lapsed to reignite it.

    He just doesn't want to.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,595
    edited October 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    Cookie said:

    So after all that, Labour are going to do exactly the same. Come on Labour, pull your fingers out:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/05/keir-starmer-will-not-commit-reverse-rishi-sunak-hs2-cut/

    This is why a lot of people are disillusioned with politicians in general. Until the Tories cancelled it, Labout was giving the distinct impression they would build the leg to Manchester.
    Starmers agrees on

    The triple lock
    No to Scottish Independence
    Scrapping HS2 to Manchester and investing in the North infrastructure
    2 child benefit policy
    Fiscal conservatism

    Maybe others can add to this list
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,245
    Scott_xP said:

    @IGcom
    ·
    *SEC INVESTIGATING MUSK OVER 2022 PURCHASES OF TWITTER STOCK

    It's not illegal to purchase stock in a company you are going to bid on, so long as you don't try and hide your ownership percentage.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,193
    Rogertrent said:

    Calvin Robinson calling Sky News Sly News live on air to Mark Austin.

    https://x.com/calvinrobinson/status/1709718793566429342?s=20

    Arrestable offence.
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