In Andrew Teale’s as usual excellent by-election briefing on Rutherglen this little nugget:
Well, the good news for election watchers who like to stay up late for the count is that this result should come through quickly. The South Lanarkshire returning officer has for decades run one of the UK’s fastest counting teams, and Rutherglen and Hamilton West regularly returns the first Scottish result on general election night. In December 2019, the declaration here came at 01:24. We can expect no messing about this time either.
So given turnout will be lower than a GE we might get a result, or rumours of such, before lights out.
Previous declaration times for Rutherglen & Hamilton West.
Under this government, not until 2.15 on 6th October 2025 by which time they hope to have counted 40% of the votes and redirected the rest to other areas of need.
This is why a lot of people are disillusioned with politicians in general. Until the Tories cancelled it, Labout was giving the distinct impression they would build the leg to Manchester.
Sunak has been supremely smart by hamstringing any potential Labour Government over HS2. The reselling of the compulsorily purchased land is very clever. It would hamstring Labour even further if this land was sold in small pockets to make any repurchase prohibitive. Sunak is a blinkin' genius!
Edit. Although the genius of course could be that of Cummings.
This is why a lot of people are disillusioned with politicians in general. Until the Tories cancelled it, Labout was giving the distinct impression they would build the leg to Manchester.
Starmers agrees on
The triple lock No to Scottish Independence Scrapping HS2 to Manchester and investing in the North infrastructure 2 child benefit policy Fiscal conservatism
Maybe others can add to this list
20mph limits. Both parties have implemented them in the last few years.
Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.
Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.
But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the money
This article should be read by everyone interested in politics and economics
I agree with that, it is the responsible thing to do, but you have to contrast this with the Chancellor (with, one assumes, Sunak's assent) continuing to enable the bizarre behaviour of the BOE by indemnifying their lunatic bond sell off.
Columbia Threadneedle’s analysis suggests that the pace of bond sales is 70% faster than that of the U.S. Federal Reserve and around twice the rate of the European Central Bank.
“It’s unclear to us why the Bank has been so hasty. The fast pace of these sales has been pushing down on gilt prices, it’s been worsening the losses for the taxpayer, and worse, it crystallizes what would have been paper losses into a drain that the U.K. Treasury has to make good,” Mahon said.
“For markets, the pace of such hefty selling pressure by the U.K. central bank is in our view, one factor why gilts have struggled this year and struggled to find buyers.”
This potentially dwarves any fiscal spending commitments, and there's no return. It is literally national suicide, and no Government in its right mind would consent to it.
The BOE have had a big part in this and not in a positive manner
I agree. And being fair, all politicians, including Starmer, Reeves, and even right wing disruptors like Truss haven't tackled it. Truss's 3 conference speech themes were 'Drop the tax, cut the bills, build the homes' - 'stop the sell-off' was conspicuous by its absence. Perhaps Truss just doesn't want the reputational damage of picking a fight with the Bank after last time. John Redwood is the only senior politician I see fighting this fight.
It is not the job of the BOE to protect voters from the consequences of the government's stupid policies.
This is why a lot of people are disillusioned with politicians in general. Until the Tories cancelled it, Labout was giving the distinct impression they would build the leg to Manchester.
Starmers agrees on
The triple lock No to Scottish Independence Scrapping HS2 to Manchester and investing in the North infrastructure 2 child benefit policy Fiscal conservatism
Maybe others can add to this list
20mph limits
I agree on 20mph limits but not 97% of 30mph zones to 20mph
Starmer has not commented as far as I am aware but if so link please
This is why a lot of people are disillusioned with politicians in general. Until the Tories cancelled it, Labout was giving the distinct impression they would build the leg to Manchester.
Sunak has been supremely smart by hamstringing any potential Labour Government over HS2. The reselling of the compulsorily purchased land is very clever. It would hamstring Labour even further if this land was sold in small pockets to make any repurchase prohibitive. Sunak is a blinkin' genius!
It’s not going to be great look if folk who received “market price” when their land was compulsory purchased in the last few years see the Government turn a profit selling it to developers.
Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.
Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.
But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the money
This article should be read by everyone interested in politics and economics
I agree with that, it is the responsible thing to do, but you have to contrast this with the Chancellor (with, one assumes, Sunak's assent) continuing to enable the bizarre behaviour of the BOE by indemnifying their lunatic bond sell off.
Columbia Threadneedle’s analysis suggests that the pace of bond sales is 70% faster than that of the U.S. Federal Reserve and around twice the rate of the European Central Bank.
“It’s unclear to us why the Bank has been so hasty. The fast pace of these sales has been pushing down on gilt prices, it’s been worsening the losses for the taxpayer, and worse, it crystallizes what would have been paper losses into a drain that the U.K. Treasury has to make good,” Mahon said.
“For markets, the pace of such hefty selling pressure by the U.K. central bank is in our view, one factor why gilts have struggled this year and struggled to find buyers.”
This potentially dwarves any fiscal spending commitments, and there's no return. It is literally national suicide, and no Government in its right mind would consent to it.
The BOE have had a big part in this and not in a positive manner
I agree. And being fair, all politicians, including Starmer, Reeves, and even right wing disruptors like Truss haven't tackled it. Truss's 3 conference speech themes were 'Drop the tax, cut the bills, build the homes' - 'stop the sell-off' was conspicuous by its absence. Perhaps Truss just doesn't want the reputational damage of picking a fight with the Bank after last time. John Redwood is the only senior politician I see fighting this fight.
This story has been around for some time so if anyone you care to name has not picked it up, chances are they never will. Or at least, not till their opponents say anything.
A lot of things have been picked up recently that we never thought would be. It starts with people discussing, understanding, and questioning it in discussions like this one.
This is why a lot of people are disillusioned with politicians in general. Until the Tories cancelled it, Labout was giving the distinct impression they would build the leg to Manchester.
Starmers agrees on
The triple lock No to Scottish Independence Scrapping HS2 to Manchester and investing in the North infrastructure 2 child benefit policy Fiscal conservatism
Maybe others can add to this list
None of that is a reason to vote Conservative. It isn't just about the policies, it's about the way the Conservative Party, under successive leaders, has comported itself in Government. It's the way it does things that puts people off - Sunak trying to pretend the last 13 years of Conservative-led Government haven't happened is just another aspect of this incredible self-denial. The Conservatives have had their final "last chance" and they know it.
Elements of the Party have disgraced themselves in Government - that is why Labour will (hopefully) win next time.
No one has any illusions about Starmer though his dull competence may not be the worst thing that has happened after the last decade or so.
This is why a lot of people are disillusioned with politicians in general. Until the Tories cancelled it, Labout was giving the distinct impression they would build the leg to Manchester.
Starmers agrees on
The triple lock No to Scottish Independence Scrapping HS2 to Manchester and investing in the North infrastructure 2 child benefit policy Fiscal conservatism
Maybe others can add to this list
It is simply that no incoming government that is still probably 12/12 away can write a budget.
Particularly so when the government is operating a scorched earth policy.
This is why a lot of people are disillusioned with politicians in general. Until the Tories cancelled it, Labout was giving the distinct impression they would build the leg to Manchester.
Sunak has been supremely smart by hamstringing any potential Labour Government over HS2. The reselling of the compulsorily purchased land is very clever. It would hamstring Labour even further if this land was sold in small pockets to make any repurchase prohibitive. Sunak is a blinkin' genius!
Edit. Although the genius of course could be that of Cummings.
Sunak is a spiteful cxnt! Sorry for my language but it’s deserving.
If SLAB lose this it will be the worse expectations management of all time. They've effectively told everyone they're going to win this comfortably.
I've wonderd about their total lack of expectation management, I believe they've used the term 'seismic'. It's got to the point that it'll be seismic if they don't win it comfortably.
Slightly unfortunate expression by Labour in view of the situation in the Bay of Naples.
This is why a lot of people are disillusioned with politicians in general. Until the Tories cancelled it, Labout was giving the distinct impression they would build the leg to Manchester.
Starmers agrees on
The triple lock No to Scottish Independence Scrapping HS2 to Manchester and investing in the North infrastructure 2 child benefit policy Fiscal conservatism
I joked the other day that TSE has taken the reins just as the Campi Flegrei supervolcano started misbehaving.
It was a true comment, an earthquake swarm is ongoing and the ground west of Naples is moving day to day like a large slow-motion bouncy castle.
The civil emergencies minister has released £50m in funding to be spent over the next 90 days on surveys and emergency evacuation planning and drills.
The considered likely scenario is not that the supervolcano as such goes up, more like the 1538 creation of 123m Monte Nuovo as described here. I'm imagining it as sort of similar to a Surtsey (ed) type event, again likely to be around the settlement of Pozzuoli.
I think the one that killed off the Minoans was a bit smaller than that.
Edit: Nice illustration of the ground uplift from processing of the Sentinel SAR. Fringes show ground level movement. Vesuvius can be seen on the other side of Naples.
Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.
Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.
But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the money
This article should be read by everyone interested in politics and economics
I agree with that, it is the responsible thing to do, but you have to contrast this with the Chancellor (with, one assumes, Sunak's assent) continuing to enable the bizarre behaviour of the BOE by indemnifying their lunatic bond sell off.
Columbia Threadneedle’s analysis suggests that the pace of bond sales is 70% faster than that of the U.S. Federal Reserve and around twice the rate of the European Central Bank.
“It’s unclear to us why the Bank has been so hasty. The fast pace of these sales has been pushing down on gilt prices, it’s been worsening the losses for the taxpayer, and worse, it crystallizes what would have been paper losses into a drain that the U.K. Treasury has to make good,” Mahon said.
“For markets, the pace of such hefty selling pressure by the U.K. central bank is in our view, one factor why gilts have struggled this year and struggled to find buyers.”
This potentially dwarves any fiscal spending commitments, and there's no return. It is literally national suicide, and no Government in its right mind would consent to it.
The BOE have had a big part in this and not in a positive manner
I agree. And being fair, all politicians, including Starmer, Reeves, and even right wing disruptors like Truss haven't tackled it. Truss's 3 conference speech themes were 'Drop the tax, cut the bills, build the homes' - 'stop the sell-off' was conspicuous by its absence. Perhaps Truss just doesn't want the reputational damage of picking a fight with the Bank after last time. John Redwood is the only senior politician I see fighting this fight.
It is not the job of the BOE to protect voters from the consequences of the government's stupid policies.
Actually that is precisely it’s job.
Let me turn this around:
Are the BoE and the Treasury issuing more debt than they need to cover spending and the roll over of existing debt?
(Which, btw is why comparing the sums to the ECB and the Fed is ridiculous: it's largely a function of how much debt is maturing and needs to be replaced.)
If SLAB lose this it will be the worse expectations management of all time. They've effectively told everyone they're going to win this comfortably.
I've wonderd about their total lack of expectation management, I believe they've used the term 'seismic'. It's got to the point that it'll be seismic if they don't win it comfortably.
Slightly unfortunate expression by Labour in view of the situation in the Bay of Naples.
Also slightly unconvincing to suggest that the Starwar duo could make the earth move for anyone.
This is why a lot of people are disillusioned with politicians in general. Until the Tories cancelled it, Labout was giving the distinct impression they would build the leg to Manchester.
Starmers agrees on
The triple lock No to Scottish Independence Scrapping HS2 to Manchester and investing in the North infrastructure 2 child benefit policy Fiscal conservatism
Maybe others can add to this list
So why don't you vote for him?
I will not vote labour - Starmer is no Blair and voting Blair twice is the only time I have ever voted labour
Anyway my single vote is not going to make any difference to the outcome
This is why a lot of people are disillusioned with politicians in general. Until the Tories cancelled it, Labout was giving the distinct impression they would build the leg to Manchester.
Starmers agrees on
The triple lock No to Scottish Independence Scrapping HS2 to Manchester and investing in the North infrastructure 2 child benefit policy Fiscal conservatism
Maybe others can add to this list
20mph limits
I agree on 20mph limits but not 97% of 30mph zones to 20mph
Starmer has not commented as far as I am aware but if so link please
Why should he? Nothing to do with him. Mr Drakeford's job.
This is why a lot of people are disillusioned with politicians in general. Until the Tories cancelled it, Labout was giving the distinct impression they would build the leg to Manchester.
Sunak has been supremely smart by hamstringing any potential Labour Government over HS2. The reselling of the compulsorily purchased land is very clever. It would hamstring Labour even further if this land was sold in small pockets to make any repurchase prohibitive. Sunak is a blinkin' genius!
Edit. Although the genius of course could be that of Cummings.
Sunak is a spiteful cxnt! Sorry for my language but it’s deserving.
This is the real scandal. We have a convention in this country that governments or parliaments cannot bind those making decisions in the future.
There is a chance, perhaps slim, that the UK experiences fast economic growth, a balanced budget and low interest rates once again, and HS2 is finally built. Don't let Sunak kill that possibility.
This is why a lot of people are disillusioned with politicians in general. Until the Tories cancelled it, Labout was giving the distinct impression they would build the leg to Manchester.
Starmers agrees on
The triple lock No to Scottish Independence Scrapping HS2 to Manchester and investing in the North infrastructure 2 child benefit policy Fiscal conservatism
Maybe others can add to this list
So why don't you vote for him?
I will not vote labour - Starmer is no Blair and voting Blair twice is the only time I have ever voted labour
Anyway my single vote is not going to make any difference to the outcome
Come now - you will be voting and you know it. As you damn well should.
This is why a lot of people are disillusioned with politicians in general. Until the Tories cancelled it, Labout was giving the distinct impression they would build the leg to Manchester.
Starmers agrees on
The triple lock No to Scottish Independence Scrapping HS2 to Manchester and investing in the North infrastructure 2 child benefit policy Fiscal conservatism
Maybe others can add to this list
So why don't you vote for him?
I will not vote labour - Starmer is no Blair and voting Blair twice is the only time I have ever voted labour
Anyway my single vote is not going to make any difference to the outcome
Come now - you will be voting and you know it. As you damn well should.
I joked the other day that TSE has taken the reins just as the Campi Flegrei supervolcano started misbehaving.
It was a true comment, an earthquake swarm is ongoing and the ground west of Naples is moving day to day like a large slow-motion bouncy castle.
The civil emergencies minister has released £50m in funding to be spent over the next 90 days on surveys and emergency evacuation planning and drills.
The considered likely scenario is not that the supervolcano as such goes up, more like the 1538 creation of 123m Monte Nuovo as described here. I'm imagining it as sort of similar to a Surtsey (ed) type event, again likely to be around the settlement of Pozzuoli.
This is why a lot of people are disillusioned with politicians in general. Until the Tories cancelled it, Labout was giving the distinct impression they would build the leg to Manchester.
Starmers agrees on
The triple lock No to Scottish Independence Scrapping HS2 to Manchester and investing in the North infrastructure 2 child benefit policy Fiscal conservatism
Maybe others can add to this list
20mph limits
I agree on 20mph limits but not 97% of 30mph zones to 20mph
Starmer has not commented as far as I am aware but if so link please
Why should he? Nothing to do with him. Mr Drakeford's job.
Only in so much he holds Drakeford as an example, and of course it would be an English matter
This is why a lot of people are disillusioned with politicians in general. Until the Tories cancelled it, Labout was giving the distinct impression they would build the leg to Manchester.
Starmers agrees on
The triple lock No to Scottish Independence Scrapping HS2 to Manchester and investing in the North infrastructure 2 child benefit policy Fiscal conservatism
Maybe others can add to this list
So why don't you vote for him?
I will not vote labour - Starmer is no Blair and voting Blair twice is the only time I have ever voted labour
Anyway my single vote is not going to make any difference to the outcome
You've never forgiven him for that the curry and p1$$ up in Durham when the rest of us were locked down, and poor old Rishi and Boris were unfairly ambushed by cake.
I joked the other day that TSE has taken the reins just as the Campi Flegrei supervolcano started misbehaving.
It was a true comment, an earthquake swarm is ongoing and the ground west of Naples is moving day to day like a large slow-motion bouncy castle.
The civil emergencies minister has released £50m in funding to be spent over the next 90 days on surveys and emergency evacuation planning and drills.
The considered likely scenario is not that the supervolcano as such goes up, more like the 1538 creation of 123m Monte Nuovo as described here. I'm imagining it as sort of similar to a Surtsey (ed) type event, again likely to be around the settlement of Pozzuoli.
This is why a lot of people are disillusioned with politicians in general. Until the Tories cancelled it, Labout was giving the distinct impression they would build the leg to Manchester.
Starmers agrees on
The triple lock No to Scottish Independence Scrapping HS2 to Manchester and investing in the North infrastructure 2 child benefit policy Fiscal conservatism
Maybe others can add to this list
So why don't you vote for him?
I will not vote labour - Starmer is no Blair and voting Blair twice is the only time I have ever voted labour
Anyway my single vote is not going to make any difference to the outcome
You've never forgiven him for that the curry and p1$$ up in Durham when the rest of us were locked down, and poor old Rishi and Boris were unfairly ambushed by cake.
And wine, let's not forget the cruelty of that. Not that Mr S had any, obvs.
This is why a lot of people are disillusioned with politicians in general. Until the Tories cancelled it, Labout was giving the distinct impression they would build the leg to Manchester.
Sunak has been supremely smart by hamstringing any potential Labour Government over HS2. The reselling of the compulsorily purchased land is very clever. It would hamstring Labour even further if this land was sold in small pockets to make any repurchase prohibitive. Sunak is a blinkin' genius!
It’s not going to be great look if folk who received “market price” when their land was compulsory purchased in the last few years see the Government turn a profit selling it to developers.
I joked the other day that TSE has taken the reins just as the Campi Flegrei supervolcano started misbehaving.
It was a true comment, an earthquake swarm is ongoing and the ground west of Naples is moving day to day like a large slow-motion bouncy castle.
The civil emergencies minister has released £50m in funding to be spent over the next 90 days on surveys and emergency evacuation planning and drills.
The considered likely scenario is not that the supervolcano as such goes up, more like the 1538 creation of 123m Monte Nuovo as described here. I'm imagining it as sort of similar to a Surtsey (ed) type event, again likely to be around the settlement of Pozzuoli.
I think the one that killed off the Minoans was a bit smaller than that.
Edit: Nice illustration of the ground uplift from processing of the Sentinel SAR. Fringes show ground level movement.
That's a nice map, if you are a vulcanologist, not so much if you are a local. Real uplift at the Campi, but also Ischia to some extent.
Amalfi is the most beautiful romantic place on earth to our family and where my daughter (52) many years ago had her first romantic interlude with an Italian
I joked the other day that TSE has taken the reins just as the Campi Flegrei supervolcano started misbehaving.
It was a true comment, an earthquake swarm is ongoing and the ground west of Naples is moving day to day like a large slow-motion bouncy castle.
The civil emergencies minister has released £50m in funding to be spent over the next 90 days on surveys and emergency evacuation planning and drills.
The considered likely scenario is not that the supervolcano as such goes up, more like the 1538 creation of 123m Monte Nuovo as described here. I'm imagining it as sort of similar to a Surtsey (ed) type event, again likely to be around the settlement of Pozzuoli.
RWC: In most sports, I don't much like watching teams or players who always win, win. At best, it's boring; at worst (football) the winners are arrogant childish pricks whose talent doesn't seem to stop them feeling the need to cheat whenever the opportunity arises. But I bloody love watching New Zealand.] Sure, NZ v Uruguay is a mismatch, and I have a lot of sympathy and admiration for the Uruguayans' pluck. But NZ are just bloody brilliant. Sparkling and entertaining and by and large don't seem to be horrible people.
On a good day, France provide the same level of skill, entertainment and excitement but with far more flair and less clinical than NZ
This is why a lot of people are disillusioned with politicians in general. Until the Tories cancelled it, Labout was giving the distinct impression they would build the leg to Manchester.
Sunak has been supremely smart by hamstringing any potential Labour Government over HS2. The reselling of the compulsorily purchased land is very clever. It would hamstring Labour even further if this land was sold in small pockets to make any repurchase prohibitive. Sunak is a blinkin' genius!
Edit. Although the genius of course could be that of Cummings.
Sunak is a spiteful cxnt! Sorry for my language but it’s deserving.
This is the real scandal. We have a convention in this country that governments or parliaments cannot bind those making decisions in the future.
There is a chance, perhaps slim, that the UK experiences fast economic growth, a balanced budget and low interest rates once again, and HS2 is finally built. Don't let Sunak kill that possibility.
Yes, this is quite deliberate vandalism, an attack on our country's future. Incredible behaviour by Sunak.
This is why a lot of people are disillusioned with politicians in general. Until the Tories cancelled it, Labout was giving the distinct impression they would build the leg to Manchester.
Starmers agrees on
The triple lock No to Scottish Independence Scrapping HS2 to Manchester and investing in the North infrastructure 2 child benefit policy Fiscal conservatism
Maybe others can add to this list
So why don't you vote for him?
I will not vote labour - Starmer is no Blair and voting Blair twice is the only time I have ever voted labour
Anyway my single vote is not going to make any difference to the outcome
You've never forgiven him for that the curry and p1$$ up in Durham when the rest of us were locked down, and poor old Rishi and Boris were unfairly ambushed by cake.
I joked the other day that TSE has taken the reins just as the Campi Flegrei supervolcano started misbehaving.
It was a true comment, an earthquake swarm is ongoing and the ground west of Naples is moving day to day like a large slow-motion bouncy castle.
The civil emergencies minister has released £50m in funding to be spent over the next 90 days on surveys and emergency evacuation planning and drills.
The considered likely scenario is not that the supervolcano as such goes up, more like the 1538 creation of 123m Monte Nuovo as described here. I'm imagining it as sort of similar to a Surtsey (ed) type event, again likely to be around the settlement of Pozzuoli.
I think the one that killed off the Minoans was a bit smaller than that.
Edit: Nice illustration of the ground uplift from processing of the Sentinel SAR. Fringes show ground level movement.
That's a nice map, if you are a vulcanologist, not so much if you are a local. Real uplift at the Campi, but also Ischia to some extent.
Could one of you break this down for me? Imagine I have the attention span and intelligence of a Cabinet Minister. No wait, go higher. A ten year old.
The satellite has flown over the area a number of times and scanned it with its laser or radar or whatever. The chaps with the big computers have compared the data over a time. The colours show the difference in height as the pressure inside the Earth builds up. Most of it is just a difference of part of whatever basic unit they are using, picked to show up the differences. So it's yellow or magenta or whatever corresponds in the spectrum from red to violet from zero to one whole unit. But when it comes to being over a basic unit then the colour resets and the magenta means "one whole plus a bit". The area to the west of Naples - the Phlegrean Fields - shows a lot of those rings, whch means that the bit in the centre has come up a lot of whole units plus a bit. This is not great news.
This is why a lot of people are disillusioned with politicians in general. Until the Tories cancelled it, Labout was giving the distinct impression they would build the leg to Manchester.
Sunak has been supremely smart by hamstringing any potential Labour Government over HS2. The reselling of the compulsorily purchased land is very clever. It would hamstring Labour even further if this land was sold in small pockets to make any repurchase prohibitive. Sunak is a blinkin' genius!
Edit. Although the genius of course could be that of Cummings.
Sunak is a spiteful cxnt! Sorry for my language but it’s deserving.
This is the real scandal. We have a convention in this country that governments or parliaments cannot bind those making decisions in the future.
There is a chance, perhaps slim, that the UK experiences fast economic growth, a balanced budget and low interest rates once again, and HS2 is finally built. Don't let Sunak kill that possibility.
Yes, this is quite deliberate vandalism, an attack on our country's future. Incredible behaviour by Sunak.
Scorched earth policies are for those who put party before country
I joked the other day that TSE has taken the reins just as the Campi Flegrei supervolcano started misbehaving.
It was a true comment, an earthquake swarm is ongoing and the ground west of Naples is moving day to day like a large slow-motion bouncy castle.
The civil emergencies minister has released £50m in funding to be spent over the next 90 days on surveys and emergency evacuation planning and drills.
The considered likely scenario is not that the supervolcano as such goes up, more like the 1538 creation of 123m Monte Nuovo as described here. I'm imagining it as sort of similar to a Surtsey (ed) type event, again likely to be around the settlement of Pozzuoli.
If SLAB lose this it will be the worse expectations management of all time. They've effectively told everyone they're going to win this comfortably.
I've wonderd about their total lack of expectation management, I believe they've used the term 'seismic'. It's got to the point that it'll be seismic if they don't win it comfortably.
It is strange. But I wonder if it is designed to generate momentum in order to deliver a bigger swing? Theory being that people like to back a winner.
I joked the other day that TSE has taken the reins just as the Campi Flegrei supervolcano started misbehaving.
It was a true comment, an earthquake swarm is ongoing and the ground west of Naples is moving day to day like a large slow-motion bouncy castle.
The civil emergencies minister has released £50m in funding to be spent over the next 90 days on surveys and emergency evacuation planning and drills.
The considered likely scenario is not that the supervolcano as such goes up, more like the 1538 creation of 123m Monte Nuovo as described here. I'm imagining it as sort of similar to a Surtsey (ed) type event, again likely to be around the settlement of Pozzuoli.
I think the one that killed off the Minoans was a bit smaller than that.
Edit: Nice illustration of the ground uplift from processing of the Sentinel SAR. Fringes show ground level movement.
That's a nice map, if you are a vulcanologist, not so much if you are a local. Real uplift at the Campi, but also Ischia to some extent.
Could one of you break this down for me? Imagine I have the attention span and intelligence of a Cabinet Minister. No wait, go higher. A ten year old.
The satellite has flown over the area a number of times and scanned it with its laser or radar or whatever. The chaps with the big computers have compared the data over a time. The colours show the difference in height as the pressure inside the Earth builds up. Most of it is just a difference of part of whatever basic unit they are using, picked to show up the differences. So it's yellow or magenta or whatever corresponds in the spectrum from red to violet from zero to one whole unit. But when it comes to being over a basic unit then the colour resets and the magenta means "one whole plus a bit". The area to the west of Naples - the Phlegrean Fields - shows a lot of those rings, whch means that the bit in the centre has come up a lot of whole units plus a bit. This is not great news.
Thank you. And, to an expert, this resembles what one normally sees before they go off? I genuinely had no idea these things were a bit more predicable these days.
Presumably that means the people can be made safe?
This is why a lot of people are disillusioned with politicians in general. Until the Tories cancelled it, Labout was giving the distinct impression they would build the leg to Manchester.
Starmers agrees on
The triple lock No to Scottish Independence Scrapping HS2 to Manchester and investing in the North infrastructure 2 child benefit policy Fiscal conservatism
Maybe others can add to this list
20mph limits
I agree on 20mph limits but not 97% of 30mph zones to 20mph
Starmer has not commented as far as I am aware but if so link please
Why should he? Nothing to do with him. THE DRAKE’s job.
I joked the other day that TSE has taken the reins just as the Campi Flegrei supervolcano started misbehaving.
It was a true comment, an earthquake swarm is ongoing and the ground west of Naples is moving day to day like a large slow-motion bouncy castle.
The civil emergencies minister has released £50m in funding to be spent over the next 90 days on surveys and emergency evacuation planning and drills.
The considered likely scenario is not that the supervolcano as such goes up, more like the 1538 creation of 123m Monte Nuovo as described here. I'm imagining it as sort of similar to a Surtsey (ed) type event, again likely to be around the settlement of Pozzuoli.
I think the one that killed off the Minoans was a bit smaller than that.
Edit: Nice illustration of the ground uplift from processing of the Sentinel SAR. Fringes show ground level movement.
That's a nice map, if you are a vulcanologist, not so much if you are a local. Real uplift at the Campi, but also Ischia to some extent.
Could one of you break this down for me? Imagine I have the attention span and intelligence of a Cabinet Minister. No wait, go higher. A ten year old.
The satellite has flown over the area a number of times and scanned it with its laser or radar or whatever. The chaps with the big computers have compared the data over a time. The colours show the difference in height as the pressure inside the Earth builds up. Most of it is just a difference of part of whatever basic unit they are using, picked to show up the differences. So it's yellow or magenta or whatever corresponds in the spectrum from red to violet from zero to one whole unit. But when it comes to being over a basic unit then the colour resets and the magenta means "one whole plus a bit". The area to the west of Naples - the Phlegrean Fields - shows a lot of those rings, whch means that the bit in the centre has come up a lot of whole units plus a bit. This is not great news.
Thank you. And, to an expert, this resembles what one normally sees before they go off? I genuinely had no idea these things were a bit more predicable these days.
Presumably that means the people can be made safe?
IANAE. As I understand it, it's not at all predictable with any great accuracy, which makes the calling of safety measures much more difficult. But perhaps one of us knows better.
I joked the other day that TSE has taken the reins just as the Campi Flegrei supervolcano started misbehaving.
It was a true comment, an earthquake swarm is ongoing and the ground west of Naples is moving day to day like a large slow-motion bouncy castle.
The civil emergencies minister has released £50m in funding to be spent over the next 90 days on surveys and emergency evacuation planning and drills.
The considered likely scenario is not that the supervolcano as such goes up, more like the 1538 creation of 123m Monte Nuovo as described here. I'm imagining it as sort of similar to a Surtsey (ed) type event, again likely to be around the settlement of Pozzuoli.
I think the one that killed off the Minoans was a bit smaller than that.
Edit: Nice illustration of the ground uplift from processing of the Sentinel SAR. Fringes show ground level movement.
That's a nice map, if you are a vulcanologist, not so much if you are a local. Real uplift at the Campi, but also Ischia to some extent.
Could one of you break this down for me? Imagine I have the attention span and intelligence of a Cabinet Minister. No wait, go higher. A ten year old.
Where the black arrow is the centre of Naples. The blue bit jutting out is where the Castel del Ovo is. The road going left from it is Via Partenope leading to Via Caracciolo.
It is all a bit too close to I Campi Flegrei for comfort.
I joked the other day that TSE has taken the reins just as the Campi Flegrei supervolcano started misbehaving.
It was a true comment, an earthquake swarm is ongoing and the ground west of Naples is moving day to day like a large slow-motion bouncy castle.
The civil emergencies minister has released £50m in funding to be spent over the next 90 days on surveys and emergency evacuation planning and drills.
The considered likely scenario is not that the supervolcano as such goes up, more like the 1538 creation of 123m Monte Nuovo as described here. I'm imagining it as sort of similar to a Surtsey (ed) type event, again likely to be around the settlement of Pozzuoli.
I think the one that killed off the Minoans was a bit smaller than that.
Edit: Nice illustration of the ground uplift from processing of the Sentinel SAR. Fringes show ground level movement.
That's a nice map, if you are a vulcanologist, not so much if you are a local. Real uplift at the Campi, but also Ischia to some extent.
Could one of you break this down for me? Imagine I have the attention span and intelligence of a Cabinet Minister. No wait, go higher. A ten year old.
Sentinel is a ground monitoring satellite that scans the earth's surface using radar.
Using a very complex bit of calculation (I have had a go at this myself for a different purpose and it is a bit of a black art) you can calculate the change in ground level between satellite passes using a technique called interferometry.
Interferometry does not give you an absolute height change but only the change relative to a single wavelength of the radar (about 5.5cm), so what you end up seeing is bands of repeated colour, with each band representing a further 5.5cm of uplift.
In this map the change is shown over the past year.
The collection of rings show that part of the earth's crust is being shoved upwards, centred in the bay off Pozzuoli, probably by magma rising towards the surface.
This and the earthquakes suggest an eruption may be imminent.
This is why a lot of people are disillusioned with politicians in general. Until the Tories cancelled it, Labout was giving the distinct impression they would build the leg to Manchester.
Sunak has been supremely smart by hamstringing any potential Labour Government over HS2. The reselling of the compulsorily purchased land is very clever. It would hamstring Labour even further if this land was sold in small pockets to make any repurchase prohibitive. Sunak is a blinkin' genius!
Edit. Although the genius of course could be that of Cummings.
Sunak is a spiteful cxnt! Sorry for my language but it’s deserving.
This is the real scandal. We have a convention in this country that governments or parliaments cannot bind those making decisions in the future.
There is a chance, perhaps slim, that the UK experiences fast economic growth, a balanced budget and low interest rates once again, and HS2 is finally built. Don't let Sunak kill that possibility.
Yes, this is quite deliberate vandalism, an attack on our country's future. Incredible behaviour by Sunak.
Everything up to the unprotecting the route and selling off the land can, if you squint a bit, be excused as a "desperate times, desperate measures" policy decision. Not one I like, and I despise the undemocratic process and the lies, but an excusable decision.
Perhaps the smart ruthless politics would have been to freeze the project, but leave the door ajar. That could really have put Labour on the spot.
But no- Sunak has decided to try to ensure that nobody can undo his decision, ever. That's not on, and as a (increasingly estranged) conservative minded chap, I thought that is what we believed in. Apparently not.
But go on then, still-loyal Conservative gloaters. If Sunak really is going to make it impossible to build HS2 in the way previously planned, what else can anyone say apart from "the government have wrecked this, we can't promise that we can fix it."
And does wrecking things all but irreversibly make you good?
I joked the other day that TSE has taken the reins just as the Campi Flegrei supervolcano started misbehaving.
It was a true comment, an earthquake swarm is ongoing and the ground west of Naples is moving day to day like a large slow-motion bouncy castle.
The civil emergencies minister has released £50m in funding to be spent over the next 90 days on surveys and emergency evacuation planning and drills.
The considered likely scenario is not that the supervolcano as such goes up, more like the 1538 creation of 123m Monte Nuovo as described here. I'm imagining it as sort of similar to a Surtsey (ed) type event, again likely to be around the settlement of Pozzuoli.
I think the one that killed off the Minoans was a bit smaller than that.
Edit: Nice illustration of the ground uplift from processing of the Sentinel SAR. Fringes show ground level movement.
That's a nice map, if you are a vulcanologist, not so much if you are a local. Real uplift at the Campi, but also Ischia to some extent.
Could one of you break this down for me? Imagine I have the attention span and intelligence of a Cabinet Minister. No wait, go higher. A ten year old.
The satellite has flown over the area a number of times and scanned it with its laser or radar or whatever. The chaps with the big computers have compared the data over a time. The colours show the difference in height as the pressure inside the Earth builds up. Most of it is just a difference of part of whatever basic unit they are using, picked to show up the differences. So it's yellow or magenta or whatever corresponds in the spectrum from red to violet from zero to one whole unit. But when it comes to being over a basic unit then the colour resets and the magenta means "one whole plus a bit". The area to the west of Naples - the Phlegrean Fields - shows a lot of those rings, whch means that the bit in the centre has come up a lot of whole units plus a bit. This is not great news.
Thank you. And, to an expert, this resembles what one normally sees before they go off? I genuinely had no idea these things were a bit more predicable these days.
Presumably that means the people can be made safe?
IANAE. As I understand it, it's not at all predictable with any great accuracy, which makes the calling of safety measures much more difficult. But perhaps one of us knows better.
I joked the other day that TSE has taken the reins just as the Campi Flegrei supervolcano started misbehaving.
It was a true comment, an earthquake swarm is ongoing and the ground west of Naples is moving day to day like a large slow-motion bouncy castle.
The civil emergencies minister has released £50m in funding to be spent over the next 90 days on surveys and emergency evacuation planning and drills.
The considered likely scenario is not that the supervolcano as such goes up, more like the 1538 creation of 123m Monte Nuovo as described here. I'm imagining it as sort of similar to a Surtsey (ed) type event, again likely to be around the settlement of Pozzuoli.
I think the one that killed off the Minoans was a bit smaller than that.
Edit: Nice illustration of the ground uplift from processing of the Sentinel SAR. Fringes show ground level movement.
That's a nice map, if you are a vulcanologist, not so much if you are a local. Real uplift at the Campi, but also Ischia to some extent.
Could one of you break this down for me? Imagine I have the attention span and intelligence of a Cabinet Minister. No wait, go higher. A ten year old.
Where the black arrow is the centre of Naples. The blue bit jutting out is where the Castel del Ovo is. The road going left from it is Via Partenope leading to Via Caracciolo.
It is all a bit too close to I Campi Flegrei for comfort.
NHS dentistry has been a complete mess for years and is effectively unavailable in some parts of the country. This could prove a very popular move if Labour can fix it, which I doubt. Supervised toothbrushing in schools sounds a bit of a gimmick but would be almost free and not involve conjuring up hundreds more dentists. Is there an actual plan for the hard part? We'll see.
Watching schoolkids brush their teeth is one thing but how would rinsing work? I doubt schools have one sink per pupil. Maybe the policy is just a gimmick for announcing not enacting.
This is why a lot of people are disillusioned with politicians in general. Until the Tories cancelled it, Labout was giving the distinct impression they would build the leg to Manchester.
Starmers agrees on
The triple lock No to Scottish Independence Scrapping HS2 to Manchester and investing in the North infrastructure 2 child benefit policy Fiscal conservatism
Maybe others can add to this list
So why don't you vote for him?
I will not vote labour - Starmer is no Blair and voting Blair twice is the only time I have ever voted labour
Anyway my single vote is not going to make any difference to the outcome
You've never forgiven him for that the curry and p1$$ up in Durham when the rest of us were locked down, and poor old Rishi and Boris were unfairly ambushed by cake.
This is why a lot of people are disillusioned with politicians in general. Until the Tories cancelled it, Labout was giving the distinct impression they would build the leg to Manchester.
Sunak has been supremely smart by hamstringing any potential Labour Government over HS2. The reselling of the compulsorily purchased land is very clever. It would hamstring Labour even further if this land was sold in small pockets to make any repurchase prohibitive. Sunak is a blinkin' genius!
Edit. Although the genius of course could be that of Cummings.
Sunak is a spiteful cxnt! Sorry for my language but it’s deserving.
This is the real scandal. We have a convention in this country that governments or parliaments cannot bind those making decisions in the future.
There is a chance, perhaps slim, that the UK experiences fast economic growth, a balanced budget and low interest rates once again, and HS2 is finally built. Don't let Sunak kill that possibility.
Yes, this is quite deliberate vandalism, an attack on our country's future. Incredible behaviour by Sunak.
Everything up to the unprotecting the route and selling off the land can, if you squint a bit, be excused as a "desperate times, desperate measures" policy decision. Not one I like, and I despise the undemocratic process and the lies, but an excusable decision.
Perhaps the smart ruthless politics would have been to freeze the project, but leave the door ajar. That could really have put Labour on the spot.
But no- Sunak has decided to try to ensure that nobody can undo his decision, ever. That's not on, and as a (increasingly estranged) conservative minded chap, I thought that is what we believed in. Apparently not.
But go on then, still-loyal Conservative gloaters. If Sunak really is going to make it impossible to build HS2 in the way previously planned, what else can anyone say apart from "the government have wrecked this, we can't promise that we can fix it."
And does wrecking things all but irreversibly make you good?
At a huge additional financial cost, too. You're advcertising you are as desperate to sell as someone with E. coli 0157 is for some antibiotic and a cork.
Rishi Sunak has not seen a “conference bounce” in polls despite unveiling a string of high-profile policies
Yougov poll for Times finds Labour retains a 21 point lead
Ban on cigarette sales very popular; opinion mixed on HS2 & A-levels
Most relevant small print;
In contrast, 37 per cent of voters support plans to scrap the Northern leg of HS2 and spend the money on other transport projects in the north and Midlands, compared with 40 per cent who oppose it. The policy has the lowest support in the north, where it is backed by just 29 per of people, and the highest support in the Midlands, where it is backed by 44 per cent of voters.
Margin matters in this by-election. This seat was Labour (narrowly) in 2017, so is one of the seats they'd really expect to get with ANY recovery in Scotland. But a good margin would suggest they are seriously back on the map. Narrow one, not so much. Loss would be a disaster.
I joked the other day that TSE has taken the reins just as the Campi Flegrei supervolcano started misbehaving.
It was a true comment, an earthquake swarm is ongoing and the ground west of Naples is moving day to day like a large slow-motion bouncy castle.
The civil emergencies minister has released £50m in funding to be spent over the next 90 days on surveys and emergency evacuation planning and drills.
The considered likely scenario is not that the supervolcano as such goes up, more like the 1538 creation of 123m Monte Nuovo as described here. I'm imagining it as sort of similar to a Surtsey (ed) type event, again likely to be around the settlement of Pozzuoli.
I think the one that killed off the Minoans was a bit smaller than that.
Edit: Nice illustration of the ground uplift from processing of the Sentinel SAR. Fringes show ground level movement.
That's a nice map, if you are a vulcanologist, not so much if you are a local. Real uplift at the Campi, but also Ischia to some extent.
Could one of you break this down for me? Imagine I have the attention span and intelligence of a Cabinet Minister. No wait, go higher. A ten year old.
Sentinel is a ground monitoring satellite that scans the earth's surface using radar.
Using a very complex bit of calculation (I have had a go at this myself for a different purpose and it is a bit of a black art) you can calculate the change in ground level between satellite passes using a technique called interferometry.
Interferometry does not give you an absolute height change but only the change relative to a single wavelength of the radar (about 5.5cm), so what you end up seeing is bands of repeated colour, with each band representing a further 5.5cm of uplift.
In this map the change is shown over the past year.
The collection of rings show that part of the earth's crust is being shoved upwards, centred in the bay off Pozzuoli, probably by magma rising towards the surface.
This and the earthquakes suggest an eruption may be imminent.
3 million people live in the area. If there is an eruption under the Phlegrean Fields, Naples will be directly threatened, even more so than if Vesuvius goes.
I joked the other day that TSE has taken the reins just as the Campi Flegrei supervolcano started misbehaving.
It was a true comment, an earthquake swarm is ongoing and the ground west of Naples is moving day to day like a large slow-motion bouncy castle.
The civil emergencies minister has released £50m in funding to be spent over the next 90 days on surveys and emergency evacuation planning and drills.
The considered likely scenario is not that the supervolcano as such goes up, more like the 1538 creation of 123m Monte Nuovo as described here. I'm imagining it as sort of similar to a Surtsey (ed) type event, again likely to be around the settlement of Pozzuoli.
I think the one that killed off the Minoans was a bit smaller than that.
Edit: Nice illustration of the ground uplift from processing of the Sentinel SAR. Fringes show ground level movement.
That's a nice map, if you are a vulcanologist, not so much if you are a local. Real uplift at the Campi, but also Ischia to some extent.
Could one of you break this down for me? Imagine I have the attention span and intelligence of a Cabinet Minister. No wait, go higher. A ten year old.
Sentinel is a ground monitoring satellite that scans the earth's surface using radar.
Using a very complex bit of calculation (I have had a go at this myself for a different purpose and it is a bit of a black art) you can calculate the change in ground level between satellite passes using a technique called interferometry.
Interferometry does not give you an absolute height change but only the change relative to a single wavelength of the radar (about 5.5cm), so what you end up seeing is bands of repeated colour, with each band representing a further 5.5cm of uplift.
In this map the change is shown over the past year.
The collection of rings show that part of the earth's crust is being shoved upwards, centred in the bay off Pozzuoli, probably by magma rising towards the surface.
This and the earthquakes suggest an eruption may be imminent.
Thank you. So much of satellite observation is change detection isn’t it? A decent use for AI, you’d think, as the amount of data we get back globally exceeds what we can sensibly sift through.
Rishi Sunak has not seen a “conference bounce” in polls despite unveiling a string of high-profile policies
Yougov poll for Times finds Labour retains a 21 point lead
Ban on cigarette sales very popular; opinion mixed on HS2 & A-levels
Most relevant small print;
In contrast, 37 per cent of voters support plans to scrap the Northern leg of HS2 and spend the money on other transport projects in the north and Midlands, compared with 40 per cent who oppose it. The policy has the lowest support in the north, where it is backed by just 29 per of people, and the highest support in the Midlands, where it is backed by 44 per cent of voters.
Forces of one NATO country (US) have shot down a drone of another (Turkey). Turkey was using drones to attack Kurds in northern Syria. A Turkish drone got too near US forces in the area and they shot it down.
The idea that Starmer will commit to building the Manchester leg of HS2 is for the birds, IMHO. I will be very, very surprised if that makes it into official Labour Party policy.
Why? Because despite a fair bit of enthusiasm for it on here, it is not a tremendously popular project with the public. Certainly not enough to be seen to be reopening the purse to pay for it.
Starmer wins by pledging to deliver new infrastructure projects in the north, and reminding people the Tories can’t be trusted because of the hash they made of HS2. He gets little benefit from telling people a project many are ambivalent to at best and that eats money will come back under his watch.
I joked the other day that TSE has taken the reins just as the Campi Flegrei supervolcano started misbehaving.
It was a true comment, an earthquake swarm is ongoing and the ground west of Naples is moving day to day like a large slow-motion bouncy castle.
The civil emergencies minister has released £50m in funding to be spent over the next 90 days on surveys and emergency evacuation planning and drills.
The considered likely scenario is not that the supervolcano as such goes up, more like the 1538 creation of 123m Monte Nuovo as described here. I'm imagining it as sort of similar to a Surtsey (ed) type event, again likely to be around the settlement of Pozzuoli.
I think the one that killed off the Minoans was a bit smaller than that.
Edit: Nice illustration of the ground uplift from processing of the Sentinel SAR. Fringes show ground level movement.
That's a nice map, if you are a vulcanologist, not so much if you are a local. Real uplift at the Campi, but also Ischia to some extent.
Could one of you break this down for me? Imagine I have the attention span and intelligence of a Cabinet Minister. No wait, go higher. A ten year old.
Sentinel is a ground monitoring satellite that scans the earth's surface using radar.
Using a very complex bit of calculation (I have had a go at this myself for a different purpose and it is a bit of a black art) you can calculate the change in ground level between satellite passes using a technique called interferometry.
Interferometry does not give you an absolute height change but only the change relative to a single wavelength of the radar (about 5.5cm), so what you end up seeing is bands of repeated colour, with each band representing a further 5.5cm of uplift.
In this map the change is shown over the past year.
The collection of rings show that part of the earth's crust is being shoved upwards, centred in the bay off Pozzuoli, probably by magma rising towards the surface.
This and the earthquakes suggest an eruption may be imminent.
3 million people live in the area. If there is an eruption under the Phlegrean Fields, Naples will be directly threatened, even more so than if Vesuvius goes.
Do we know what the warning time would be once an eruption was definitely underway? I assume this is getting a lot more airtime locally than here. I.e. If you live locally do you expect many hours notice and near certainty of being safe?
I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.
What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?
I realise that I have a personal interest. But if there is an eruption in Naples I won't give a fuckety fuck what happens in British politics. Or anywhere else for that matter. My heart will be broken.
Chatting to multiple sources tonight, Labour v confident they’ve done enough to win. SNP sources conceding they won’t hold seat.
We’ll know for sure in a few hours.
I am ready, man! Ready to get it on!
Keep calmer vote Starmer 😈
Hey, Londonpubman, don't worry! Me and my squad of ultimate Labour fans will protect you! Check it out: Independently targeting particle beam phalanx. Vwap! Fry half a Parliamentary constituency with this puppy! We got tactical smart missiles, phased plasma pulse rifles, RPGs, we got sonic electronic ball breakers! We got nukes, we got leaflets, dodgy bar charts...
Rishi Sunak has not seen a “conference bounce” in polls despite unveiling a string of high-profile policies
Yougov poll for Times finds Labour retains a 21 point lead
Ban on cigarette sales very popular; opinion mixed on HS2 & A-levels
Most relevant small print;
In contrast, 37 per cent of voters support plans to scrap the Northern leg of HS2 and spend the money on other transport projects in the north and Midlands, compared with 40 per cent who oppose it. The policy has the lowest support in the north, where it is backed by just 29 per of people, and the highest support in the Midlands, where it is backed by 44 per cent of voters.
The most relevant bit is the question asked, since it repeats Sunak’s direct lie, saying the money which would have been spent is being redirected to other transport projects.
Big_G swallowed it without demur, but you’d think yougov might come up with a more accurate formulation.
I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.
What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?
That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.
DIY dentistry in the sense of looking after your own teeth is something we need more of. Seeing a dentist every six months can't make up for neglect the rest of the time.
Electric toothbrush plus flossing and fluoride mouthwash is way. Plus xylotol chewing gum which kills bad bacteria in mouth.
The American Dental Association quietly dropped its recommendation to floss recently after a review found there’s no evidence flossing actually works.
Rishi Sunak has not seen a “conference bounce” in polls despite unveiling a string of high-profile policies
Yougov poll for Times finds Labour retains a 21 point lead
Ban on cigarette sales very popular; opinion mixed on HS2 & A-levels
Most relevant small print;
In contrast, 37 per cent of voters support plans to scrap the Northern leg of HS2 and spend the money on other transport projects in the north and Midlands, compared with 40 per cent who oppose it. The policy has the lowest support in the north, where it is backed by just 29 per of people, and the highest support in the Midlands, where it is backed by 44 per cent of voters.
As a little antidote to the PB consensus (which I share) here is the Super Soaraway Sun's take, courtesy of a previous customer of this pub:
"RISHI Sunak delivered probably the best conference speech by any party leader since 1997 ー mercifully stripped of Tony Blair's high-flown empty rhetoric. We may yet look back on this performance as the moment he won next year's general election. The stand-out moment came as he axed HS2. The move outsmarted Labour, which was counting on a so-called "U-turn" to silence criticism of Sir Keir Starmer as a persistent flip-flopper. Instead, Rishi's decision to amputate the Birmingham to Manchester leg won an explosion of warm praise from previous critics among northern Tory MPs. They were gleeful at Rishi's masterstroke - spending the 36billion in HS2 savings on new east-west rail lines and roads linking northern towns and cities. How can Starmer attack Rishi for that? How will he oppose plans to eliminate cigarette smoking which costs the NHS billions? Or cash for specialist teachers to help children read and count? Sir Keir is fatally snarled up in Rishi's barbed wire."
I realise that I have a personal interest. But if there is an eruption in Naples I won't give a fuckety fuck what happens in British politics. Or anywhere else for that matter. My heart will be broken.
Our family love that area, and Italy as a country and this week our granddaughter started her year at Turin University as part of her degree in Italian language and culture.
All our family would share your grief if, God forbid, this volcano erupts
Rishi Sunak has not seen a “conference bounce” in polls despite unveiling a string of high-profile policies
Yougov poll for Times finds Labour retains a 21 point lead
Ban on cigarette sales very popular; opinion mixed on HS2 & A-levels
Most relevant small print;
In contrast, 37 per cent of voters support plans to scrap the Northern leg of HS2 and spend the money on other transport projects in the north and Midlands, compared with 40 per cent who oppose it. The policy has the lowest support in the north, where it is backed by just 29 per of people, and the highest support in the Midlands, where it is backed by 44 per cent of voters.
The most relevant bit is the question asked, since it repeats Sunak’s direct lie, saying the money which would have been spent is being redirected to other transport projects.
Big_G swallowed it without demur, but you’d think yougov might come up with a more accurate formulation.
Indeed, one would also hope The Times itself was rather less credulous than the likes of G.
I joked the other day that TSE has taken the reins just as the Campi Flegrei supervolcano started misbehaving.
It was a true comment, an earthquake swarm is ongoing and the ground west of Naples is moving day to day like a large slow-motion bouncy castle.
The civil emergencies minister has released £50m in funding to be spent over the next 90 days on surveys and emergency evacuation planning and drills.
The considered likely scenario is not that the supervolcano as such goes up, more like the 1538 creation of 123m Monte Nuovo as described here. I'm imagining it as sort of similar to a Surtsey (ed) type event, again likely to be around the settlement of Pozzuoli.
I think the one that killed off the Minoans was a bit smaller than that.
Edit: Nice illustration of the ground uplift from processing of the Sentinel SAR. Fringes show ground level movement.
That's a nice map, if you are a vulcanologist, not so much if you are a local. Real uplift at the Campi, but also Ischia to some extent.
Could one of you break this down for me? Imagine I have the attention span and intelligence of a Cabinet Minister. No wait, go higher. A ten year old.
Sentinel is a ground monitoring satellite that scans the earth's surface using radar.
Using a very complex bit of calculation (I have had a go at this myself for a different purpose and it is a bit of a black art) you can calculate the change in ground level between satellite passes using a technique called interferometry.
Interferometry does not give you an absolute height change but only the change relative to a single wavelength of the radar (about 5.5cm), so what you end up seeing is bands of repeated colour, with each band representing a further 5.5cm of uplift.
In this map the change is shown over the past year.
The collection of rings show that part of the earth's crust is being shoved upwards, centred in the bay off Pozzuoli, probably by magma rising towards the surface.
This and the earthquakes suggest an eruption may be imminent.
3 million people live in the area. If there is an eruption under the Phlegrean Fields, Naples will be directly threatened, even more so than if Vesuvius goes.
Do we know what the warning time would be once an eruption was definitely underway? I assume this is getting a lot more airtime locally than here. I.e. If you live locally do you expect many hours notice and near certainty of being safe?
There are plans. How they would work in practice, God only knows. The Italian government is not exactly overburdened with a reputation for efficiency.
One of the main roads out of Naples is through Fuorigrotta past the Pozzuoli area. Where do 3 million people go? What about all the incalculably valuable art?
Will there be a tsunami? What might the effect on Vesuvius be? And so on and on.
In Andrew Teale’s as usual excellent by-election briefing on Rutherglen this little nugget:
Well, the good news for election watchers who like to stay up late for the count is that this result should come through quickly. The South Lanarkshire returning officer has for decades run one of the UK’s fastest counting teams, and Rutherglen and Hamilton West regularly returns the first Scottish result on general election night. In December 2019, the declaration here came at 01:24. We can expect no messing about this time either.
So given turnout will be lower than a GE we might get a result, or rumours of such, before lights out.
Previous declaration times for Rutherglen & Hamilton West.
Under this government, not until 2.15 on 6th October 2025 by which time they hope to have counted 40% of the votes and redirected the rest to other areas of need.
Rishi Sunak has not seen a “conference bounce” in polls despite unveiling a string of high-profile policies
Yougov poll for Times finds Labour retains a 21 point lead
Ban on cigarette sales very popular; opinion mixed on HS2 & A-levels
Most relevant small print;
In contrast, 37 per cent of voters support plans to scrap the Northern leg of HS2 and spend the money on other transport projects in the north and Midlands, compared with 40 per cent who oppose it. The policy has the lowest support in the north, where it is backed by just 29 per of people, and the highest support in the Midlands, where it is backed by 44 per cent of voters.
The most relevant bit is the question asked, since it repeats Sunak’s direct lie, saying the money which would have been spent is being redirected to other transport projects.
Big_G swallowed it without demur, but you’d think yougov might come up with a more accurate formulation.
To be fair to YouGov, how clear was that when they did the polling?
I mean, that part of the policy is falling apart incredibly quickly, but wasn't there a brief glorious interval where we all thought Rishi was just reallocating the money?
Rishi Sunak has not seen a “conference bounce” in polls despite unveiling a string of high-profile policies
Yougov poll for Times finds Labour retains a 21 point lead
Ban on cigarette sales very popular; opinion mixed on HS2 & A-levels
Most relevant small print;
In contrast, 37 per cent of voters support plans to scrap the Northern leg of HS2 and spend the money on other transport projects in the north and Midlands, compared with 40 per cent who oppose it. The policy has the lowest support in the north, where it is backed by just 29 per of people, and the highest support in the Midlands, where it is backed by 44 per cent of voters.
The most relevant bit is the question asked, since it repeats Sunak’s direct lie, saying the money which would have been spent is being redirected to other transport projects.
Big_G swallowed it without demur, but you’d think yougov might come up with a more accurate formulation.
To be fair to YouGov, how clear was that when they did the polling?
I mean, that part of the policy is falling apart incredibly quickly, but wasn't there a brief glorious interval where we all thought Rishi was just reallocating the money?
It was pretty clear when he made the speech - as commented at length on here and elsewhere, at the time.
Rishi Sunak has not seen a “conference bounce” in polls despite unveiling a string of high-profile policies
Yougov poll for Times finds Labour retains a 21 point lead
Ban on cigarette sales very popular; opinion mixed on HS2 & A-levels
Most relevant small print;
In contrast, 37 per cent of voters support plans to scrap the Northern leg of HS2 and spend the money on other transport projects in the north and Midlands, compared with 40 per cent who oppose it. The policy has the lowest support in the north, where it is backed by just 29 per of people, and the highest support in the Midlands, where it is backed by 44 per cent of voters.
The most relevant bit is the question asked, since it repeats Sunak’s direct lie, saying the money which would have been spent is being redirected to other transport projects.
Big_G swallowed it without demur, but you’d think yougov might come up with a more accurate formulation.
To be fair to YouGov, how clear was that when they did the polling?
I mean, that part of the policy is falling apart incredibly quickly, but wasn't there a brief glorious interval where we all thought Rishi was just reallocating the money?
It was pretty clear when he made the speech - as commented at length on here and elsewhere, at the time.
So not really, no.
On here, yes. But did you see the fawning on-the-day coverage on the BBC? Made the heyday of Laura K look like shrewd dispassionate analysis.
I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.
What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?
That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.
Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.
Rishi Sunak has not seen a “conference bounce” in polls despite unveiling a string of high-profile policies
Yougov poll for Times finds Labour retains a 21 point lead
Ban on cigarette sales very popular; opinion mixed on HS2 & A-levels
This is one of the few major set piece events before the election campaign. No polling bounce wouldn't be a great outcome to say the least.
Sunak has tried governing via minefield. The purpose of many of these announcements is to create a wedge with Labour to make them look fiscally irresponsible or taking money from your pocket.
Labour seems to be taking the approach of staying in the barracks and taking their time to decide on which fronts they want to fight. The mines go untouched.
What concerns me is the prospect of Sunak continuing to make actively harmful decisions until he can get Labour to step on one.
If Starmer doesn't stand up next week to say that the Conservatives are telling us that they have so mismanaged HS2 over the last decade that they have had to cancel it - and just to make sure no one else can do any better, they've also sabotaged it - then he's a fool.
Rishi Sunak has not seen a “conference bounce” in polls despite unveiling a string of high-profile policies
Yougov poll for Times finds Labour retains a 21 point lead
Ban on cigarette sales very popular; opinion mixed on HS2 & A-levels
This is one of the few major set piece events before the election campaign. No polling bounce wouldn't be a great outcome to say the least.
Sunak has tried governing via minefield. The purpose of many of these announcements is to create a wedge with Labour to make them look fiscally irresponsible or taking money from your pocket.
Labour seems to be taking the approach of staying in the barracks and taking their time to decide on which fronts they want to fight. The mines go untouched.
What concerns me is the prospect of Sunak continuing to make actively harmful decisions until he can get Labour to step on one.
Excellent post.
Everyday Sunak gets up now and thinks 'what wedge can I find'.
This is no way to run a country, let alone a fecking railway.
As a little antidote to the PB consensus (which I share) here is the Super Soaraway Sun's take, courtesy of a previous customer of this pub:
"RISHI Sunak delivered probably the best conference speech by any party leader since 1997 ー mercifully stripped of Tony Blair's high-flown empty rhetoric. We may yet look back on this performance as the moment he won next year's general election. The stand-out moment came as he axed HS2. The move outsmarted Labour, which was counting on a so-called "U-turn" to silence criticism of Sir Keir Starmer as a persistent flip-flopper. Instead, Rishi's decision to amputate the Birmingham to Manchester leg won an explosion of warm praise from previous critics among northern Tory MPs. They were gleeful at Rishi's masterstroke - spending the 36billion in HS2 savings on new east-west rail lines and roads linking northern towns and cities. How can Starmer attack Rishi for that? How will he oppose plans to eliminate cigarette smoking which costs the NHS billions? Or cash for specialist teachers to help children read and count? Sir Keir is fatally snarled up in Rishi's barbed wire."
Rishi does seem to attract massive levels of hyperbole from eccentrics. Frank Field described Rishi's budget of 2021 as the 'Best budget in my 42 years in politics'.
Rishi Sunak has not seen a “conference bounce” in polls despite unveiling a string of high-profile policies
Yougov poll for Times finds Labour retains a 21 point lead
Ban on cigarette sales very popular; opinion mixed on HS2 & A-levels
Most relevant small print;
In contrast, 37 per cent of voters support plans to scrap the Northern leg of HS2 and spend the money on other transport projects in the north and Midlands, compared with 40 per cent who oppose it. The policy has the lowest support in the north, where it is backed by just 29 per of people, and the highest support in the Midlands, where it is backed by 44 per cent of voters.
The most relevant bit is the question asked, since it repeats Sunak’s direct lie, saying the money which would have been spent is being redirected to other transport projects.
Big_G swallowed it without demur, but you’d think yougov might come up with a more accurate formulation.
To be fair to YouGov, how clear was that when they did the polling?
I mean, that part of the policy is falling apart incredibly quickly, but wasn't there a brief glorious interval where we all thought Rishi was just reallocating the money?
Can I just, once again, flag to those on here that you might all think that aspect of the policy is “falling apart”, but there’s really been no such discussion out there in the real world and there now won’t be: ironically because of the Labour conference.
Sunak made a broadly sensible policy call Starmer is now glad he doesn’t have to make when he takes over.
The polls are unlikely to move much because he isn’t doing much in the here and now. But then his wiggle room to do anything at all is limited.
And that’s the real strategic threat for Labour. They can win because the Tories have very publicly burnt out, but probably only narrowly and not necessarily alone. They then get to be in power with very few choices about doing anything, and the chances of a resurgent neo-Cummings Tory Party riding a populist wave back into power are sky high.
I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.
What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?
That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.
Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.
Why would I want to block you? Usually your posts are great, but in recent weeks you have become this weird Sunak booster. Why?
Comments
Edit. Although the genius of course could be that of Cummings.
Starmer has not commented as far as I am aware but if so link please
Elements of the Party have disgraced themselves in Government - that is why Labour will (hopefully) win next time.
No one has any illusions about Starmer though his dull competence may not be the worst thing that has happened after the last decade or so.
Particularly so when the government is operating a scorched earth policy.
A full on VEI7 would be ... a bit too interesting.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campanian_Ignimbrite_eruption
I think the one that killed off the Minoans was a bit smaller than that.
Edit:
Nice illustration of the ground uplift from processing of the Sentinel SAR. Fringes show ground level movement. Vesuvius can be seen on the other side of Naples.
Are the BoE and the Treasury issuing more debt than they need to cover spending and the roll over of existing debt?
(Which, btw is why comparing the sums to the ECB and the Fed is ridiculous: it's largely a function of how much debt is maturing and needs to be replaced.)
Anyway my single vote is not going to make any difference to the outcome
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-67020960
There is a chance, perhaps slim, that the UK experiences fast economic growth, a balanced budget and low interest rates once again, and HS2 is finally built. Don't let Sunak kill that possibility.
https://x.com/chrisjbakke/status/1709792592035209713
https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2022/12/03/poll-shows-northern-ireland-rejects-unity-by-large-margin/
Exclusive:
Rishi Sunak has not seen a “conference bounce” in polls despite unveiling a string of high-profile policies
Yougov poll for Times finds Labour retains a 21 point lead
Ban on cigarette sales very popular; opinion mixed on HS2 & A-levels
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ZX9T0kWb4Y
Presumably that means the people can be made safe?
This gives a bit more:
https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2023/jun/crust-campi-flegrei-volcano-weakening
Where the black arrow is the centre of Naples. The blue bit jutting out is where the Castel del Ovo is. The road going left from it is Via Partenope leading to Via Caracciolo.
It is all a bit too close to I Campi Flegrei for comfort.
Labour source: “Our vote has turned out”
@nickeardleybbc
Polls closed in Rutherglen and Hamilton West.
Chatting to multiple sources tonight, Labour v confident they’ve done enough to win. SNP sources conceding they won’t hold seat.
We’ll know for sure in a few hours.
Using a very complex bit of calculation (I have had a go at this myself for a different purpose and it is a bit of a black art) you can calculate the change in ground level between satellite passes using a technique called interferometry.
Interferometry does not give you an absolute height change but only the change relative to a single wavelength of the radar (about 5.5cm), so what you end up seeing is bands of repeated colour, with each band representing a further 5.5cm of uplift.
In this map the change is shown over the past year.
The collection of rings show that part of the earth's crust is being shoved upwards, centred in the bay off Pozzuoli, probably by magma rising towards the surface.
This and the earthquakes suggest an eruption may be imminent.
Perhaps the smart ruthless politics would have been to freeze the project, but leave the door ajar. That could really have put Labour on the spot.
But no- Sunak has decided to try to ensure that nobody can undo his decision, ever. That's not on, and as a (increasingly estranged) conservative minded chap, I thought that is what we believed in. Apparently not.
But go on then, still-loyal Conservative gloaters. If Sunak really is going to make it impossible to build HS2 in the way previously planned, what else can anyone say apart from "the government have wrecked this, we can't promise that we can fix it."
And does wrecking things all but irreversibly make you good?
Instant korma.
In contrast, 37 per cent of voters support plans to scrap the Northern leg of HS2 and spend the money on other transport projects in the north and Midlands, compared with 40 per cent who oppose it. The policy has the lowest support in the north, where it is backed by just 29 per of people, and the highest support in the Midlands, where it is backed by 44 per cent of voters.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-approval-rating-yougov-poll-tory-conference-2023-wmhd7htt6
GN all 👍
Why? Because despite a fair bit of enthusiasm for it on here, it is not a tremendously popular project with the public. Certainly not enough to be seen to be reopening the purse to pay for it.
Starmer wins by pledging to deliver new infrastructure projects in the north, and reminding people the Tories can’t be trusted because of the hash they made of HS2. He gets little benefit from telling people a project many are ambivalent to at best and that eats money will come back under his watch.
What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?
Big_G swallowed it without demur, but you’d think yougov might come up with a more accurate formulation.
https://archive.ph/ytVC1
"Overall the poll puts Labour on 45 per cent support, the Conservatives on 24 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 11 per cent."
"RISHI Sunak delivered probably
the best
conference
speech by any party leader since
1997
ー
mercifully
stripped of Tony Blair's high-flown empty rhetoric.
We may yet look back on this performance
as
the
moment he won next year's general election.
The stand-out
moment
came as he axed HS2. The move outsmarted Labour, which was counting on a so-called "U-turn" to silence criticism of Sir Keir Starmer as a persistent flip-flopper.
Instead, Rishi's decision to amputate the Birmingham to Manchester leg won an explosion of warm praise from previous critics among northern Tory MPs.
They were gleeful at Rishi's masterstroke - spending the 36billion in HS2 savings on new east-west rail lines and roads linking northern towns and cities.
How can Starmer attack Rishi for that? How will he oppose plans to eliminate cigarette smoking which costs the NHS billions? Or cash for specialist teachers to help children read and count?
Sir Keir is fatally snarled up in Rishi's barbed wire."
All our family would share your grief if, God forbid, this volcano erupts
One of the main roads out of Naples is through Fuorigrotta past the Pozzuoli area. Where do 3 million people go? What about all the incalculably valuable art?
Will there be a tsunami? What might the effect on Vesuvius be? And so on and on.
It doesn't bear thinking about.
The Labour Party
@UKLabour
13 years of Tory chaos.
@JonAshworth nails it.
https://twitter.com/UKLabour
* not the television channel
I mean, that part of the policy is falling apart incredibly quickly, but wasn't there a brief glorious interval where we all thought Rishi was just reallocating the money?
So not really, no.
Correct decision
Yes 34%
No 27%
D/K 39%
Sunak has tried governing via minefield. The purpose of many of these announcements is to create a wedge with Labour to make them look fiscally irresponsible or taking money from your pocket.
Labour seems to be taking the approach of staying in the barracks and taking their time to decide on which fronts they want to fight. The mines go untouched.
What concerns me is the prospect of Sunak continuing to make actively harmful decisions until he can get Labour to step on one.
Everyday Sunak gets up now and thinks 'what wedge can I find'.
This is no way to run a country, let alone a fecking railway.
https://twitter.com/frankfieldteam/status/1367108733067816963
Sunak made a broadly sensible policy call Starmer is now glad he doesn’t have to make when he takes over.
The polls are unlikely to move much because he isn’t doing much in the here and now. But then his wiggle room to do anything at all is limited.
And that’s the real strategic threat for Labour. They can win because the Tories have very publicly burnt out, but probably only narrowly and not necessarily alone. They then get to be in power with very few choices about doing anything, and the chances of a resurgent neo-Cummings Tory Party riding a populist wave back into power are sky high.
They are collapsing. It's all over!
@AllieHBNews
·
1m
Friday’s TIMES: “CPS calls for clemency over ‘mercy killing’ cases”
===
Excellent news.