I realise that I have a personal interest. But if there is an eruption in Naples I won't give a fuckety fuck what happens in British politics. Or anywhere else for that matter. My heart will be broken.
@Cyclefree Records of actual destructive historically recorded eruptions look rare for the Campi Flegrei (as opposed to Vesuvius) and the likelihood probably tends towards an event possibly months and years away, towards the slow motion pushing up of a hill over days and weeks. Perhaps something that damages housing over an area if in the wrong bit, and forces evacuations, but hopefully gradual enough that the risk to life is limited.
Ianae, and am just following this one, and can't guarantee anything I'm afraid, but do read the 1538 event I linked as I think the scenario there, which has resemblance to now, does possibly provide a degree of reassurance. It is a worry for sure, but the history might tilt a bit towards a very inconvenient curiosity rather than an impending disaster.
I realise that I have a personal interest. But if there is an eruption in Naples I won't give a fuckety fuck what happens in British politics. Or anywhere else for that matter. My heart will be broken.
Civil Protection Minister Nello Musumeci said this week evacuations would only be triggered in case of "extreme necessity"...
The recent activity doesn't seem to be entirely unprecedented. Though of course we didn't have satellite monitoring of the same kind back then.
..The last time Campi Flegrei suffered a comparable burst of earthquakes was in the 1980s. On that occasion, some 40,000 people were temporarily evacuated from nearby Pozzuoli...
What if the police investigation of the SNP goes nowhere and no charges are brought . That would surely boost them so I think their GE obituaries are being prematurely written .
Rishi Sunak has not seen a “conference bounce” in polls despite unveiling a string of high-profile policies
Yougov poll for Times finds Labour retains a 21 point lead
Ban on cigarette sales very popular; opinion mixed on HS2 & A-levels
This is one of the few major set piece events before the election campaign. No polling bounce wouldn't be a great outcome to say the least.
Sunak has tried governing via minefield. The purpose of many of these announcements is to create a wedge with Labour to make them look fiscally irresponsible or taking money from your pocket.
Labour seems to be taking the approach of staying in the barracks and taking their time to decide on which fronts they want to fight. The mines go untouched.
What concerns me is the prospect of Sunak continuing to make actively harmful decisions until he can get Labour to step on one.
Is it? Autumn Statement. Budget. 2024 conference. Pre-election Autumn statement in 2024.
Plus anything else he wants to invent.
Don’t get me wrong, I think the Tories will lose, but the fat lady is only on verse one and she might yet stop singing with a bad throat.
I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.
What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?
That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.
Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.
Why would I want to block you? Usually your posts are great, but in recent weeks you have become this weird Sunak booster. Why?
I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.
What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?
That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.
Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.
Why would I want to block you? Usually your posts are great, but in recent weeks you have become this weird Sunak booster. Why?
The Conservatives are going to claw back the victory. This is not like '97 it is like '92. The media are incredibly hostile which they weren't in '97 and Starmer is unfortunately an utter clown. Granted, not in the same league as Corbyn but an incompetent loser nonetheless.
I listened to the whole if Sunak's speech and I thought it was drops. The media interpretation has been somewhat more positive. Mainstream media have captured this insanity that Sunak is the "change" candidate, which you have to admit is pure Cummings insanity, but it's working.
I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.
What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?
That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.
Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.
Why would I want to block you? Usually your posts are great, but in recent weeks you have become this weird Sunak booster. Why?
I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.
What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?
That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.
Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.
Why would I want to block you? Usually your posts are great, but in recent weeks you have become this weird Sunak booster. Why?
The Conservatives are going to claw back the victory. This is not like '97 it is like '92. The media are incredibly hostile which they weren't in '97 and Starmer is unfortunately an utter clown. Granted, not in the same league as Corbyn but an incompetent loser nonetheless.
I listened to the whole if Sunak's speech and I thought it was drops. The media interpretation has been somewhat more positive. Mainstream media have captured this insanity that Sunak is the "change" candidate, which you have to admit is pure Cummings insanity, but it's working.
The test of your theory is next week. Watch for invented “rows” and “gaffs” from a bored media that wants a Tory comeback narrative.
I realise that I have a personal interest. But if there is an eruption in Naples I won't give a fuckety fuck what happens in British politics. Or anywhere else for that matter. My heart will be broken.
Civil Protection Minister Nello Musumeci said this week evacuations would only be triggered in case of "extreme necessity"...
The recent activity doesn't seem to be entirely unprecedented. Though of course we didn't have satellite monitoring of the same kind back then.
..The last time Campi Flegrei suffered a comparable burst of earthquakes was in the 1980s. On that occasion, some 40,000 people were temporarily evacuated from nearby Pozzuoli...
There have been 2 eruptions in the area already this week. I'm not sure that referring to what happened in 1538 is entirely reassuring, frankly.
Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.
Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.
But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the money
This article should be read by everyone interested in politics and economics
You may be interested to know that I think he's 100% wrong. I'm going thru Peter Turchin's "End Times"[1] at the moment and I think he (Turchin) is right. The combination of popular immiseration and elite overproduction have led to the potential for revolution, where people qualified to wield power but denied it utilise disaffected masses to overthrow regimes. Allister Heath's prescription would just make the miserable poor more miserable and more poor, and that'll only make things worse.
Recall my past comments on Pensionerism. The preponderance of wealthy elderly means that old ideas will persist even when they stop working, and new ideas for a new age will die stillborn. The cure you prefer would have worked in a neoliberal age, but that age stopped around 2015. The current condition - retreating globalisation, less trade, more migration waves - require new solutions, and the old ways won't work. We have just spent two years pushing on a string with higher interest rates, and were surprised it didn't work. Making mistakes is one thing, but failing to learn from them is another.
What if the police investigation of the SNP goes nowhere and no charges are brought . That would surely boost them so I think their GE obituaries are being prematurely written .
I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.
What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?
That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.
Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.
Why would I want to block you? Usually your posts are great, but in recent weeks you have become this weird Sunak booster. Why?
I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.
What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?
That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.
Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.
Why would I want to block you? Usually your posts are great, but in recent weeks you have become this weird Sunak booster. Why?
The Conservatives are going to claw back the victory. This is not like '97 it is like '92. The media are incredibly hostile which they weren't in '97 and Starmer is unfortunately an utter clown. Granted, not in the same league as Corbyn but an incompetent loser nonetheless.
I listened to the whole if Sunak's speech and I thought it was drops. The media interpretation has been somewhat more positive. Mainstream media have captured this insanity that Sunak is the "change" candidate, which you have to admit is pure Cummings insanity, but it's working.
Rishi Sunak has not seen a “conference bounce” in polls despite unveiling a string of high-profile policies
Yougov poll for Times finds Labour retains a 21 point lead
Ban on cigarette sales very popular; opinion mixed on HS2 & A-levels
This is one of the few major set piece events before the election campaign. No polling bounce wouldn't be a great outcome to say the least.
Sunak has tried governing via minefield. The purpose of many of these announcements is to create a wedge with Labour to make them look fiscally irresponsible or taking money from your pocket.
Labour seems to be taking the approach of staying in the barracks and taking their time to decide on which fronts they want to fight. The mines go untouched.
What concerns me is the prospect of Sunak continuing to make actively harmful decisions until he can get Labour to step on one.
Is it? Autumn Statement. Budget. 2024 conference. Pre-election Autumn statement in 2024.
Plus anything else he wants to invent.
Don’t get me wrong, I think the Tories will lose, but the fat lady is only on verse one and she might yet stop singing with a bad throat.
There is something of the antibiotic-resistant superbug about the Tories, it’s true. Or at least after 13 years of them it feels that way. But I remember 1996. People felt the same, they couldn’t believe what the polls were showing.
And we also remember 2010. A lot of people believed we were into a new era of pendulum politics, the coalition might or might not survive for the whole 5 years, Labour might well be back again soon. But they weren’t. There’s no guarantee that things will swing straight back to a party that’s alienated most of the electorate and is gradually losing the ones it’s not alienated to death by natural causes.
There is no positive reason to vote conservative, none at all.
Rishi Sunak has not seen a “conference bounce” in polls despite unveiling a string of high-profile policies
Yougov poll for Times finds Labour retains a 21 point lead
Ban on cigarette sales very popular; opinion mixed on HS2 & A-levels
This is one of the few major set piece events before the election campaign. No polling bounce wouldn't be a great outcome to say the least.
Sunak has tried governing via minefield. The purpose of many of these announcements is to create a wedge with Labour to make them look fiscally irresponsible or taking money from your pocket.
Labour seems to be taking the approach of staying in the barracks and taking their time to decide on which fronts they want to fight. The mines go untouched.
What concerns me is the prospect of Sunak continuing to make actively harmful decisions until he can get Labour to step on one.
Is it? Autumn Statement. Budget. 2024 conference. Pre-election Autumn statement in 2024.
Plus anything else he wants to invent.
Don’t get me wrong, I think the Tories will lose, but the fat lady is only on verse one and she might yet stop singing with a bad throat.
There is something of the antibiotic-resistant superbug about the Tories, it’s true. Or at least after 13 years of them it feels that way. But I remember 1996. People felt the same, they couldn’t believe what the polls were showing.
And we also remember 2010. A lot of people believed we were into a new era of pendulum politics, the coalition might or might not survive for the whole 5 years, Labour might well be back again soon. But they weren’t. There’s no guarantee that things will swing straight back to a party that’s alienated most of the electorate and is gradually losing the ones it’s not alienated to death by natural causes.
There is no positive reason to vote conservative, none at all.
I don’t disagree. In general, I think alternating two four year terms of each party would be best for the country. Sadly I don’t get to choose.
Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.
Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.
But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the money
This article should be read by everyone interested in politics and economics
You may be interested to know that I think he's 100% wrong. I'm going thru Peter Turchin's "End Times"[1] at the moment and I think he (Turchin) is right. The combination of popular immiseration and elite overproduction have led to the potential for revolution, where people qualified to wield power but denied it utilise disaffected masses to overthrow regimes. Allister Heath's prescription would just make the miserable poor more miserable and more poor, and that'll only make things worse.
Recall my past comments on Pensionerism. The preponderance of wealthy elderly means that old ideas will persist even when they stop working, and new ideas for a new age will die stillborn. The cure you prefer would have worked in a neoliberal age, but that age stopped around 2015. The current condition - retreating globalisation, less trade, more migration waves - require new solutions, and the old ways won't work. We have just spent two years pushing on a string with higher interest rates, and were surprised it didn't work. Making mistakes is one thing, but failing to learn from them is another.
Fantastic comment. I was in a cab today and the cab driver said he didnt believe the mainstream media and he thought covid was a scam. Also said many of his friends thought the same way.
I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.
What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?
That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.
Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.
Why would I want to block you? Usually your posts are great, but in recent weeks you have become this weird Sunak booster. Why?
I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.
What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?
That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.
Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.
Why would I want to block you? Usually your posts are great, but in recent weeks you have become this weird Sunak booster. Why?
The Conservatives are going to claw back the victory. This is not like '97 it is like '92. The media are incredibly hostile which they weren't in '97 and Starmer is unfortunately an utter clown. Granted, not in the same league as Corbyn but an incompetent loser nonetheless.
I listened to the whole if Sunak's speech and I thought it was drops. The media interpretation has been somewhat more positive. Mainstream media have captured this insanity that Sunak is the "change" candidate, which you have to admit is pure Cummings insanity, but it's working.
So Trevor Kavanagh thinks Sunak has stymied Starmer. He's not wrong
I remember attending a finance conference in the run up to the 2017 election when Kavanagh (who gave off distinctive mafia bag carrier vibes, appropriate for someone who's been doing Murdoch's bidding for the last 40 years) told us with some authority that May was about to win a stunning victory...
Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.
Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.
But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the money
This article should be read by everyone interested in politics and economics
You may be interested to know that I think he's 100% wrong. I'm going thru Peter Turchin's "End Times"[1] at the moment and I think he (Turchin) is right. The combination of popular immiseration and elite overproduction have led to the potential for revolution, where people qualified to wield power but denied it utilise disaffected masses to overthrow regimes. Allister Heath's prescription would just make the miserable poor more miserable and more poor, and that'll only make things worse.
Recall my past comments on Pensionerism. The preponderance of wealthy elderly means that old ideas will persist even when they stop working, and new ideas for a new age will die stillborn. The cure you prefer would have worked in a neoliberal age, but that age stopped around 2015. The current condition - retreating globalisation, less trade, more migration waves - require new solutions, and the old ways won't work. We have just spent two years pushing on a string with higher interest rates, and were surprised it didn't work. Making mistakes is one thing, but failing to learn from them is another.
Fantastic comment. I was in a cab today and the cab driver said he didnt believe the mainstream media and he thought covid was a scam. Also said many of his friends thought the same way.
Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.
Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.
But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the money
This article should be read by everyone interested in politics and economics
You may be interested to know that I think he's 100% wrong. I'm going thru Peter Turchin's "End Times"[1] at the moment and I think he (Turchin) is right. The combination of popular immiseration and elite overproduction have led to the potential for revolution, where people qualified to wield power but denied it utilise disaffected masses to overthrow regimes. Allister Heath's prescription would just make the miserable poor more miserable and more poor, and that'll only make things worse.
Recall my past comments on Pensionerism. The preponderance of wealthy elderly means that old ideas will persist even when they stop working, and new ideas for a new age will die stillborn. The cure you prefer would have worked in a neoliberal age, but that age stopped around 2015. The current condition - retreating globalisation, less trade, more migration waves - require new solutions, and the old ways won't work. We have just spent two years pushing on a string with higher interest rates, and were surprised it didn't work. Making mistakes is one thing, but failing to learn from them is another.
Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.
Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.
But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the money
This article should be read by everyone interested in politics and economics
You may be interested to know that I think he's 100% wrong. I'm going thru Peter Turchin's "End Times"[1] at the moment and I think he (Turchin) is right. The combination of popular immiseration and elite overproduction have led to the potential for revolution, where people qualified to wield power but denied it utilise disaffected masses to overthrow regimes. Allister Heath's prescription would just make the miserable poor more miserable and more poor, and that'll only make things worse.
Recall my past comments on Pensionerism. The preponderance of wealthy elderly means that old ideas will persist even when they stop working, and new ideas for a new age will die stillborn. The cure you prefer would have worked in a neoliberal age, but that age stopped around 2015. The current condition - retreating globalisation, less trade, more migration waves - require new solutions, and the old ways won't work. We have just spent two years pushing on a string with higher interest rates, and were surprised it didn't work. Making mistakes is one thing, but failing to learn from them is another.
Fantastic comment. I was in a cab today and the cab driver said he didnt believe the mainstream media and he thought covid was a scam. Also said many of his friends thought the same way.
I spend a lot of time in taxis (it's how I get to the train station) and can personally confirm that several taxi drivers think as you describe
Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.
Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.
But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the money
This article should be read by everyone interested in politics and economics
You may be interested to know that I think he's 100% wrong. I'm going thru Peter Turchin's "End Times"[1] at the moment and I think he (Turchin) is right. The combination of popular immiseration and elite overproduction have led to the potential for revolution, where people qualified to wield power but denied it utilise disaffected masses to overthrow regimes. Allister Heath's prescription would just make the miserable poor more miserable and more poor, and that'll only make things worse.
Recall my past comments on Pensionerism. The preponderance of wealthy elderly means that old ideas will persist even when they stop working, and new ideas for a new age will die stillborn. The cure you prefer would have worked in a neoliberal age, but that age stopped around 2015. The current condition - retreating globalisation, less trade, more migration waves - require new solutions, and the old ways won't work. We have just spent two years pushing on a string with higher interest rates, and were surprised it didn't work. Making mistakes is one thing, but failing to learn from them is another.
Fantastic comment. I was in a cab today and the cab driver said he didnt believe the mainstream media and he thought covid was a scam. Also said many of his friends thought the same way.
I spend a lot of time in taxis (it's how I get to the train station) and can personally confirm that several taxi drivers think as you describe
Taxi drivers have been mental for as long as I can rember conversations with taxi drivers.
I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.
What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?
That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.
Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.
Why would I want to block you? Usually your posts are great, but in recent weeks you have become this weird Sunak booster. Why?
I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.
What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?
That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.
Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.
Why would I want to block you? Usually your posts are great, but in recent weeks you have become this weird Sunak booster. Why?
The Conservatives are going to claw back the victory. This is not like '97 it is like '92. The media are incredibly hostile which they weren't in '97 and Starmer is unfortunately an utter clown. Granted, not in the same league as Corbyn but an incompetent loser nonetheless.
I listened to the whole if Sunak's speech and I thought it was drops. The media interpretation has been somewhat more positive. Mainstream media have captured this insanity that Sunak is the "change" candidate, which you have to admit is pure Cummings insanity, but it's working.
On what basis is it ‘working’?
Let's see the next Opinium. Single figures!
You just cherrypicking polls now? There’s a poll out literally tonight with a 21 point lead which you choose to ignore presumably? In any case, it’s boring reading your posts on this matter because you have a hypothesis and fit the evidence around it rather than vice versa. Of course, you might end up being right, but droning on about it without any evidence won’t be the reason if you are.
Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.
Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.
But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the money
This article should be read by everyone interested in politics and economics
You may be interested to know that I think he's 100% wrong. I'm going thru Peter Turchin's "End Times"[1] at the moment and I think he (Turchin) is right. The combination of popular immiseration and elite overproduction have led to the potential for revolution, where people qualified to wield power but denied it utilise disaffected masses to overthrow regimes. Allister Heath's prescription would just make the miserable poor more miserable and more poor, and that'll only make things worse.
Recall my past comments on Pensionerism. The preponderance of wealthy elderly means that old ideas will persist even when they stop working, and new ideas for a new age will die stillborn. The cure you prefer would have worked in a neoliberal age, but that age stopped around 2015. The current condition - retreating globalisation, less trade, more migration waves - require new solutions, and the old ways won't work. We have just spent two years pushing on a string with higher interest rates, and were surprised it didn't work. Making mistakes is one thing, but failing to learn from them is another.
Who exactly is qualified to wield power but also willing to utilise disaffected masses to overthrow regimes?
My judgement of the former would be somewhat* tempered by the latter.
*utterly
Good comment about the preponderance of wealthy elderly stopping change. There are many about living in large paid off houses and spending most of their time planning their next holiday. They live in a different reality to young people paying exorbitant rents. They are the conservative core voters.
Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.
Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.
But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the money
This article should be read by everyone interested in politics and economics
You may be interested to know that I think he's 100% wrong. I'm going thru Peter Turchin's "End Times"[1] at the moment and I think he (Turchin) is right. The combination of popular immiseration and elite overproduction have led to the potential for revolution, where people qualified to wield power but denied it utilise disaffected masses to overthrow regimes. Allister Heath's prescription would just make the miserable poor more miserable and more poor, and that'll only make things worse.
Recall my past comments on Pensionerism. The preponderance of wealthy elderly means that old ideas will persist even when they stop working, and new ideas for a new age will die stillborn. The cure you prefer would have worked in a neoliberal age, but that age stopped around 2015. The current condition - retreating globalisation, less trade, more migration waves - require new solutions, and the old ways won't work. We have just spent two years pushing on a string with higher interest rates, and were surprised it didn't work. Making mistakes is one thing, but failing to learn from them is another.
Fantastic comment. I was in a cab today and the cab driver said he didnt believe the mainstream media and he thought covid was a scam. Also said many of his friends thought the same way.
I spend a lot of time in taxis (it's how I get to the train station) and can personally confirm that several taxi drivers think as you describe
Taxi drivers have been mental for as long as I can rember conversations with taxi drivers.
Normally the white ones, though. Although a couple of times I've listened to anti-muslim rants from Hindu drivers, just for variation.
I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.
What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?
That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.
Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.
Why would I want to block you? Usually your posts are great, but in recent weeks you have become this weird Sunak booster. Why?
I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.
What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?
That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.
Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.
Why would I want to block you? Usually your posts are great, but in recent weeks you have become this weird Sunak booster. Why?
The Conservatives are going to claw back the victory. This is not like '97 it is like '92. The media are incredibly hostile which they weren't in '97 and Starmer is unfortunately an utter clown. Granted, not in the same league as Corbyn but an incompetent loser nonetheless.
I listened to the whole if Sunak's speech and I thought it was drops. The media interpretation has been somewhat more positive. Mainstream media have captured this insanity that Sunak is the "change" candidate, which you have to admit is pure Cummings insanity, but it's working.
On what basis is it ‘working’?
Let's see the next Opinium. Single figures!
You just cherrypicking polls now? There’s a poll out literally tonight with a 21 point lead which you choose to ignore presumably? In any case, it’s boring reading your posts on this matter because you have a hypothesis and fit the evidence around it rather than vice versa. Of course, you might end up being right, but droning on about it without any evidence won’t be the reason if you are.
Fantastic comment. I was in a cab today and the cab driver said he didnt believe the mainstream media and he thought covid was a scam. Also said many of his friends thought the same way.
I spend a lot of time in taxis (it's how I get to the train station) and can personally confirm that several taxi drivers think as you describe
I was impressed last year in Liverpool when the taxi-driver held forth about the way the City of Culture award had really boosted Liverpool, and the galleries and theatre were great. I realised I harboured dark prejudices about reactionary Sun-reading taxi-drivers and was suitably abashed.
Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.
Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.
But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the money
This article should be read by everyone interested in politics and economics
You may be interested to know that I think he's 100% wrong. I'm going thru Peter Turchin's "End Times"[1] at the moment and I think he (Turchin) is right. The combination of popular immiseration and elite overproduction have led to the potential for revolution, where people qualified to wield power but denied it utilise disaffected masses to overthrow regimes. Allister Heath's prescription would just make the miserable poor more miserable and more poor, and that'll only make things worse.
Recall my past comments on Pensionerism. The preponderance of wealthy elderly means that old ideas will persist even when they stop working, and new ideas for a new age will die stillborn. The cure you prefer would have worked in a neoliberal age, but that age stopped around 2015. The current condition - retreating globalisation, less trade, more migration waves - require new solutions, and the old ways won't work. We have just spent two years pushing on a string with higher interest rates, and were surprised it didn't work. Making mistakes is one thing, but failing to learn from them is another.
Fantastic comment. I was in a cab today and the cab driver said he didnt believe the mainstream media and he thought covid was a scam. Also said many of his friends thought the same way.
I spend a lot of time in taxis (it's how I get to the train station) and can personally confirm that several taxi drivers think as you describe
Taxi drivers have been mental for as long as I can rember conversations with taxi drivers.
Normally the white ones, though. Although a couple of times I've listened to anti-muslim rants from Hindu drivers, just for variation.
Weirdly, although Americans are fairly mental by and large, American taxi drivers tend to be less mental than British ones, for some reason. Often well educated immigrants listening to the BBC world service. Go figure!
Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.
Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.
But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the money
This article should be read by everyone interested in politics and economics
You may be interested to know that I think he's 100% wrong. I'm going thru Peter Turchin's "End Times"[1] at the moment and I think he (Turchin) is right. The combination of popular immiseration and elite overproduction have led to the potential for revolution, where people qualified to wield power but denied it utilise disaffected masses to overthrow regimes. Allister Heath's prescription would just make the miserable poor more miserable and more poor, and that'll only make things worse.
Recall my past comments on Pensionerism. The preponderance of wealthy elderly means that old ideas will persist even when they stop working, and new ideas for a new age will die stillborn. The cure you prefer would have worked in a neoliberal age, but that age stopped around 2015. The current condition - retreating globalisation, less trade, more migration waves - require new solutions, and the old ways won't work. We have just spent two years pushing on a string with higher interest rates, and were surprised it didn't work. Making mistakes is one thing, but failing to learn from them is another.
Fantastic comment. I was in a cab today and the cab driver said he didnt believe the mainstream media and he thought covid was a scam. Also said many of his friends thought the same way.
Cab drivers here seem of much the same mind. Oddly enough - quite a few cab drivers died during pandemic times.
Also possibly related to their furlough payments being related to the taxable incomes they'd reported for the previous year,
I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.
What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?
That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.
Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.
Why would I want to block you? Usually your posts are great, but in recent weeks you have become this weird Sunak booster. Why?
I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.
What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?
That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.
Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.
Why would I want to block you? Usually your posts are great, but in recent weeks you have become this weird Sunak booster. Why?
The Conservatives are going to claw back the victory. This is not like '97 it is like '92. The media are incredibly hostile which they weren't in '97 and Starmer is unfortunately an utter clown. Granted, not in the same league as Corbyn but an incompetent loser nonetheless.
I listened to the whole if Sunak's speech and I thought it was drops. The media interpretation has been somewhat more positive. Mainstream media have captured this insanity that Sunak is the "change" candidate, which you have to admit is pure Cummings insanity, but it's working.
On what basis is it ‘working’?
Let's see the next Opinium. Single figures!
You just cherrypicking polls now? There’s a poll out literally tonight with a 21 point lead which you choose to ignore presumably? In any case, it’s boring reading your posts on this matter because you have a hypothesis and fit the evidence around it rather than vice versa. Of course, you might end up being right, but droning on about it without any evidence won’t be the reason if you are.
Fantastic comment. I was in a cab today and the cab driver said he didnt believe the mainstream media and he thought covid was a scam. Also said many of his friends thought the same way.
I spend a lot of time in taxis (it's how I get to the train station) and can personally confirm that several taxi drivers think as you describe
I was impressed last year in Liverpool when the taxi-driver held forth about the way the City of Culture award had really boosted Liverpool, and the galleries and theatre were great. I realised I harboured dark prejudices about reactionary Sun-reading taxi-drivers and was suitably abashed.
OTOH I caught a cab to an exhibition of illuminated manuscripts at the British Library some time ago and when I explained where I was going the driver asked me whether they put the manuscripts under special lights to illuminate them.
I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.
What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?
That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.
Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.
Why would I want to block you? Usually your posts are great, but in recent weeks you have become this weird Sunak booster. Why?
I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.
What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?
That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.
Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.
Why would I want to block you? Usually your posts are great, but in recent weeks you have become this weird Sunak booster. Why?
The Conservatives are going to claw back the victory. This is not like '97 it is like '92. The media are incredibly hostile which they weren't in '97 and Starmer is unfortunately an utter clown. Granted, not in the same league as Corbyn but an incompetent loser nonetheless.
I listened to the whole if Sunak's speech and I thought it was drops. The media interpretation has been somewhat more positive. Mainstream media have captured this insanity that Sunak is the "change" candidate, which you have to admit is pure Cummings insanity, but it's working.
On what basis is it ‘working’?
Let's see the next Opinium. Single figures!
You just cherrypicking polls now? There’s a poll out literally tonight with a 21 point lead which you choose to ignore presumably? In any case, it’s boring reading your posts on this matter because you have a hypothesis and fit the evidence around it rather than vice versa. Of course, you might end up being right, but droning on about it without any evidence won’t be the reason if you are.
Fantastic comment. I was in a cab today and the cab driver said he didnt believe the mainstream media and he thought covid was a scam. Also said many of his friends thought the same way.
I spend a lot of time in taxis (it's how I get to the train station) and can personally confirm that several taxi drivers think as you describe
I was impressed last year in Liverpool when the taxi-driver held forth about the way the City of Culture award had really boosted Liverpool, and the galleries and theatre were great. I realised I harboured dark prejudices about reactionary Sun-reading taxi-drivers and was suitably abashed.
Yes every so often you get a nice taxi driver and it temporarily restores your faith in humanity. It never lasts though. I'd rather get the bus. At least if the driver's a c*nt you don't have to listen to him telling you his views on immigration.
More seriously, I don’t think anyone can sensibly play now as the SNP seem to have half conceded.
I would have said SNP by 500.
Looks like Yousaf will likely lose his first parliamentary by election as SNP leader then, will likely provoke some grumbles in SNP ranks
The SNP reaction to a heavy defeat will be something to savour
The blood letting if they get routed will keep us going for days. I'm only really in this one for the entertainment value of the penny dropping that they are in for an absolute pasting at the GE.
More seriously, I don’t think anyone can sensibly play now as the SNP seem to have half conceded.
I would have said SNP by 500.
Looks like Yousaf will likely lose his first parliamentary by election as SNP leader then, will likely provoke some grumbles in SNP ranks
The SNP reaction to a heavy defeat will be something to savour
The blood letting if they get routed will keep us going for days. I'm only really in this one for the entertainment value of the penny dropping that they are in for an absolute pasting at the GE.
Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.
Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.
But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the money
This article should be read by everyone interested in politics and economics
You may be interested to know that I think he's 100% wrong. I'm going thru Peter Turchin's "End Times"[1] at the moment and I think he (Turchin) is right. The combination of popular immiseration and elite overproduction have led to the potential for revolution, where people qualified to wield power but denied it utilise disaffected masses to overthrow regimes. Allister Heath's prescription would just make the miserable poor more miserable and more poor, and that'll only make things worse.
Recall my past comments on Pensionerism. The preponderance of wealthy elderly means that old ideas will persist even when they stop working, and new ideas for a new age will die stillborn. The cure you prefer would have worked in a neoliberal age, but that age stopped around 2015. The current condition - retreating globalisation, less trade, more migration waves - require new solutions, and the old ways won't work. We have just spent two years pushing on a string with higher interest rates, and were surprised it didn't work. Making mistakes is one thing, but failing to learn from them is another.
Who exactly is qualified to wield power but also willing to utilise disaffected masses to overthrow regimes?
My judgement of the former would be somewhat* tempered by the latter.
*utterly
In Turchin terms, "elites" is a simple synonym for "power havers". "Elite overproduction" is when people capable of wielding power (I used the word "qualified" above, which misled, my apologies) are denied it thru simple lack of powerful positions. He uses it to refer to well-educated people with professional/academic positions who have sufficient interest in the world and sufficient time to formulate theories.
Here's a thing: Lenin trained to be a lawyer, Stalin a priest, Mao a teacher/librarian, Hitler an artist. All in different circumstances would be comfortable professionals. But lacking a outlet for their gifts and surrounded by disaffected, they went into politics, won, overthrew the existing order and remade the world...and we spent fifty years cleaning up after them.
Although not in the same league (obvs) consider somebody like Matthew Goodwin. A man of considerable gifts and academic achievement, he has the time and intelligence to build an underlying theory of the world and the desire to change the world accordingly. But in a nation of 68 million people (69, 70...remember, it's increasing) and only 650 seats at the top level and a few thou(?) at devolved level, he cannot wield the power he believes to be his right.
So my answer to your question is "...well-educated people/autodidacts with professional/academic positions who have sufficient interest in the world, sufficient time to formulate theories, and sufficient resources to pursue power..."
Fantastic comment. I was in a cab today and the cab driver said he didnt believe the mainstream media and he thought covid was a scam. Also said many of his friends thought the same way.
I spend a lot of time in taxis (it's how I get to the train station) and can personally confirm that several taxi drivers think as you describe
I was impressed last year in Liverpool when the taxi-driver held forth about the way the City of Culture award had really boosted Liverpool, and the galleries and theatre were great. I realised I harboured dark prejudices about reactionary Sun-reading taxi-drivers and was suitably abashed.
The Sun is not widely read in Liverpool, taxi drivers or otherwise.
I have no idea who will win tonight, have not researched the situation and so cannot predict. Best of luck to all those of you who have placed a bet and I hope you make a profit.
I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.
What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?
That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.
Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.
Why would I want to block you? Usually your posts are great, but in recent weeks you have become this weird Sunak booster. Why?
I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.
What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?
That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.
Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.
Why would I want to block you? Usually your posts are great, but in recent weeks you have become this weird Sunak booster. Why?
The Conservatives are going to claw back the victory. This is not like '97 it is like '92. The media are incredibly hostile which they weren't in '97 and Starmer is unfortunately an utter clown. Granted, not in the same league as Corbyn but an incompetent loser nonetheless.
I listened to the whole if Sunak's speech and I thought it was drops. The media interpretation has been somewhat more positive. Mainstream media have captured this insanity that Sunak is the "change" candidate, which you have to admit is pure Cummings insanity, but it's working.
On what basis is it ‘working’?
Let's see the next Opinium. Single figures!
You just cherrypicking polls now? There’s a poll out literally tonight with a 21 point lead which you choose to ignore presumably? In any case, it’s boring reading your posts on this matter because you have a hypothesis and fit the evidence around it rather than vice versa. Of course, you might end up being right, but droning on about it without any evidence won’t be the reason if you are.
Pot calling the kettle black comes to mind
No
Right, that's it! I'm voting Conservative just to piss you off.
I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.
What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?
That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.
Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.
Why would I want to block you? Usually your posts are great, but in recent weeks you have become this weird Sunak booster. Why?
I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.
What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?
That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.
Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.
Why would I want to block you? Usually your posts are great, but in recent weeks you have become this weird Sunak booster. Why?
The Conservatives are going to claw back the victory. This is not like '97 it is like '92. The media are incredibly hostile which they weren't in '97 and Starmer is unfortunately an utter clown. Granted, not in the same league as Corbyn but an incompetent loser nonetheless.
I listened to the whole if Sunak's speech and I thought it was drops. The media interpretation has been somewhat more positive. Mainstream media have captured this insanity that Sunak is the "change" candidate, which you have to admit is pure Cummings insanity, but it's working.
On what basis is it ‘working’?
Let's see the next Opinium. Single figures!
You just cherrypicking polls now? There’s a poll out literally tonight with a 21 point lead which you choose to ignore presumably? In any case, it’s boring reading your posts on this matter because you have a hypothesis and fit the evidence around it rather than vice versa. Of course, you might end up being right, but droning on about it without any evidence won’t be the reason if you are.
Pot calling the kettle black comes to mind
No
Right, that's it! I'm voting Conservative just to piss you off.
I have no idea who will win tonight, have not researched the situation and so cannot predict. Best of luck to all those of you who have placed a bet and I hope you make a profit.
I put a small bet on the SNP at 20/1, even though I don't think they'll win. It wasn't worth betting on a Labour victory.
Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.
Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.
But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the money
This article should be read by everyone interested in politics and economics
You may be interested to know that I think he's 100% wrong. I'm going thru Peter Turchin's "End Times"[1] at the moment and I think he (Turchin) is right. The combination of popular immiseration and elite overproduction have led to the potential for revolution, where people qualified to wield power but denied it utilise disaffected masses to overthrow regimes. Allister Heath's prescription would just make the miserable poor more miserable and more poor, and that'll only make things worse.
Recall my past comments on Pensionerism. The preponderance of wealthy elderly means that old ideas will persist even when they stop working, and new ideas for a new age will die stillborn. The cure you prefer would have worked in a neoliberal age, but that age stopped around 2015. The current condition - retreating globalisation, less trade, more migration waves - require new solutions, and the old ways won't work. We have just spent two years pushing on a string with higher interest rates, and were surprised it didn't work. Making mistakes is one thing, but failing to learn from them is another.
Who exactly is qualified to wield power but also willing to utilise disaffected masses to overthrow regimes?
My judgement of the former would be somewhat* tempered by the latter.
*utterly
In Turchin terms, "elites" is a simple synonym for "power havers". "Elite overproduction" is when people capable of wielding power (I used the word "qualified" above, which misled, my apologies) are denied it thru simple lack of powerful positions. He uses it to refer to well-educated people with professional/academic positions who have sufficient interest in the world and sufficient time to formulate theories.
Here's a thing: Lenin trained to be a lawyer, Stalin a priest, Mao a teacher/librarian, Hitler an artist. All in different circumstances would be comfortable professionals. But lacking a outlet for their gifts and surrounded by disaffected, they went into politics, won, overthrew the existing order and remade the world...and we spent fifty years cleaning up after them.
Although not in the same league (obvs) consider somebody like Matthew Goodwin. A man of considerable gifts and academic achievement, he has the time and intelligence to build an underlying theory of the world and the desire to change the world accordingly. But in a nation of 68 million people (69, 70...remember, it's increasing) and only 650 seats at the top level and a few thou(?) at devolved level, he cannot wield the power he believes to be his right.
So my answer to your question is "...well-educated people/autodidacts with professional/academic positions who have sufficient interest in the world, sufficient time to formulate theories, and sufficient resources to pursue power..."
Does that answer your question?
Yes, and it's intensely interesting too, thanks.
Slight quibble. I think Lenin was politically motivated at a very early age by his brother's troubles but I'm no Leninologist so I might be wrong.
Comments
Or from a BPC registered pollster?
Ianae, and am just following this one, and can't guarantee anything I'm afraid, but do read the 1538 event I linked as I think the scenario there, which has resemblance to now, does possibly provide a degree of reassurance. It is a worry for sure, but the history might tilt a bit towards a very inconvenient curiosity rather than an impending disaster.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italy-plans-possible-evacuations-super-volcano-near-naples-2023-10-05/
...There is not an imminent threat of an eruption, most volcanologists say, but with the ground currently rising by 1.5 cm (0.59 inches) a month, there is concern over the impact on local buildings.
Civil Protection Minister Nello Musumeci said this week evacuations would only be triggered in case of "extreme necessity"...
The recent activity doesn't seem to be entirely unprecedented. Though of course we didn't have satellite monitoring of the same kind back then.
..The last time Campi Flegrei suffered a comparable burst of earthquakes was in the 1980s. On that occasion, some 40,000 people were temporarily evacuated from nearby Pozzuoli...
A lot can happen in a year !
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/11/canada-cases-right-to-die-laws
https://news.sky.com/story/tory-conference-latest-rishi-sunak-to-make-speech-to-tory-faithful-after-conference-overshadowed-by-hs2-backlash-12593360?postid=6535851#liveblog-body
But the Conservative members figures from the same poll;
Yes 66%
No 18%
D/K 16%
The faithful are still faithful.
Plus anything else he wants to invent.
Don’t get me wrong, I think the Tories will lose, but the fat lady is only on verse one and she might yet stop singing with a bad throat.
I listened to the whole if Sunak's speech and I thought it was drops. The media interpretation has been somewhat more positive. Mainstream media have captured this insanity that Sunak is the "change" candidate, which you have to admit is pure Cummings insanity, but it's working.
https://apnews.com/article/covid-science-health-toronto-7c631558a457188d2bd2b5cfd360a867
Starmer's refusal to reverse the axe to the line north of Birmingham in effect delivers the coup de grace to the Northern branch
Recall my past comments on Pensionerism. The preponderance of wealthy elderly means that old ideas will persist even when they stop working, and new ideas for a new age will die stillborn. The cure you prefer would have worked in a neoliberal age, but that age stopped around 2015. The current condition - retreating globalisation, less trade, more migration waves - require new solutions, and the old ways won't work. We have just spent two years pushing on a string with higher interest rates, and were surprised it didn't work. Making mistakes is one thing, but failing to learn from them is another.
[1] https://www.waterstones.com/book/end-times/peter-turchin//9780241553480
And we also remember 2010. A lot of people believed we were into a new era of pendulum politics, the coalition might or might not survive for the whole 5 years, Labour might well be back again soon. But they weren’t. There’s no guarantee that things will swing straight back to a party that’s alienated most of the electorate and is gradually losing the ones it’s not alienated to death by natural causes.
There is no positive reason to vote conservative, none at all.
+ ? @TheScreamingEagles
+ 25 @OldKingCole
+ 25 @TimS
+ 666 @Omnium
+ 700 @Benpointer
+1500 @Andy_JS
+2048 @Farooq
+3000 @londonpubman
+4800 @Heathener
- 300 @rottenborough
- 471 @boulay
My judgement of the former would be somewhat* tempered by the latter.
*utterly
But I won't count it.
Labour by 2000
Turnout mid 40s?
I have no idea whether they actually will, just fancied a flutter.
which you choose to ignore presumably? In any case, it’s boring reading your posts on this matter because you have a hypothesis and fit the evidence around it rather than vice versa. Of course, you might end up being right, but droning on about it without any evidence won’t be the reason if you are.
I would have said SNP by 500.
SNP WIN
- 500 @biggles
- 471 @boulay
- 300 @rottenborough
- 300 @Luckyguy1983
TIE
+ 25 @OldKingCole
+ 25 @TimS
+ 250 @Foxy
+ 666 @Omnium
+ 700 @Benpointer
+1500 @Andy_JS
+1650 @Pro_Rata
+1900 @Nico (I assume you mean Labour win?)
+2000 @Sunil_Prasannan
+2048 @Farooq
+3000 @londonpubman
+4000 @AramintaMoonbeamQC
+4800 @Heathener
LABOUR WIN
Ok, apologies to those I missed, I only scanned the previous thread for replies to me, may have missed others.
SNP WIN
- 500 @biggles
- 471 @boulay
- 300 @rottenborough
- 300 @Luckyguy1983
TIE
+ 25 @OldKingCole
+ 25 @TimS
+ 250 @Foxy
+ 666 @Omnium
+ 700 @Benpointer
+1500 @Andy_JS
+1650 @Pro_Rata
+1900 @Nico (I assume you mean Labour win?)
+2000 @Sunil_Prasannan
+2048 @Farooq
+3000 @londonpubman
+3800 @NickPalmer
+4000 @AramintaMoonbeamQC
+4800 @Heathener
LABOUR WIN
Could be 50 votes in it, who knows? 😂
Also possibly related to their furlough payments being related to the taxable incomes they'd reported for the previous year,
Here's a thing: Lenin trained to be a lawyer, Stalin a priest, Mao a teacher/librarian, Hitler an artist. All in different circumstances would be comfortable professionals. But lacking a outlet for their gifts and surrounded by disaffected, they went into politics, won, overthrew the existing order and remade the world...and we spent fifty years cleaning up after them.
Although not in the same league (obvs) consider somebody like Matthew Goodwin. A man of considerable gifts and academic achievement, he has the time and intelligence to build an underlying theory of the world and the desire to change the world accordingly. But in a nation of 68 million people (69, 70...remember, it's increasing) and only 650 seats at the top level and a few thou(?) at devolved level, he cannot wield the power he believes to be his right.
So my answer to your question is "...well-educated people/autodidacts with professional/academic positions who have sufficient interest in the world, sufficient time to formulate theories, and sufficient resources to pursue power..."
Does that answer your question?
BF now showing SNP at 32.
Think I may have lost a fiver.
SNP WIN
- 500 @biggles
- 471 @boulay
- 300 @rottenborough
- 300 @Luckyguy1983
TIE
+ 25 @OldKingCole
+ 25 @TimS
+ 250 @Foxy
+ 666 @Omnium
+ 700 @Benpointer
+1500 @Andy_JS
+1650 @Pro_Rata
+1750 @rcs1000
+1783 @Flatlander
+1900 @Nico (I assume you mean Labour win?)
+2000 @Sunil_Prasannan
+2048 @Farooq
+2400 @Pulpstar
+3000 @londonpubman
+3000 @OnlyLivingBoy
+3800 @NickPalmer
+4000 @AramintaMoonbeamQC
+4800 @Heathener
+5216 @Cyclefree
LABOUR WIN
However, if nothing comes of the police investigations then I would expect some recovery for them
Time to wish everyone good night
Prince Ankit Love, Emperor of India
'Not have hysterics now are we Nicola'
Slight quibble. I think Lenin was politically motivated at a very early age by his brother's troubles but I'm no Leninologist so I might be wrong.