Is LAB going to make a by-election gain tonight? – politicalbetting.com

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sophy Ridge on Sky posted their poll on the cancellation of HS2

Correct decision

Yes 34%
No 27%
D/K 39%

Is that a Voodoo poll?

Or from a BPC registered pollster?

Cyclefree said:

I realise that I have a personal interest. But if there is an eruption in Naples I won't give a fuckety fuck what happens in British politics. Or anywhere else for that matter. My heart will be broken.

I hope these guys are correct.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italy-plans-possible-evacuations-super-volcano-near-naples-2023-10-05/
...There is not an imminent threat of an eruption, most volcanologists say, but with the ground currently rising by 1.5 cm (0.59 inches) a month, there is concern over the impact on local buildings.

Civil Protection Minister Nello Musumeci said this week evacuations would only be triggered in case of "extreme necessity"...

The recent activity doesn't seem to be entirely unprecedented. Though of course we didn't have satellite monitoring of the same kind back then.

..The last time Campi Flegrei suffered a comparable burst of earthquakes was in the 1980s. On that occasion, some 40,000 people were temporarily evacuated from nearby Pozzuoli...

So Trevor Kavanagh thinks Sunak has stymied Starmer. He's not wrong

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sophy Ridge on Sky posted their poll on the cancellation of HS2

Correct decision

Yes 34%
No 27%
D/K 39%

Is that a Voodoo poll?

Or from a BPC registered pollster?

FindOutNow;

https://news.sky.com/story/tory-conference-latest-rishi-sunak-to-make-speech-to-tory-faithful-after-conference-overshadowed-by-hs2-backlash-12593360?postid=6535851#liveblog-body

But the Conservative members figures from the same poll;

Yes 66%
No 18%
D/K 16%

The faithful are still faithful.

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Scott_xP said:

@Steven_Swinford

Exclusive:

Rishi Sunak has not seen a “conference bounce” in polls despite unveiling a string of high-profile policies

Yougov poll for Times finds Labour retains a 21 point lead

Ban on cigarette sales very popular; opinion mixed on HS2 & A-levels

@Mexicanpete please explain

I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.

What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?

That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.

Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.

Why would I want to block you? Usually your posts are great, but in recent weeks you have become this weird Sunak booster. Why?

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Scott_xP said:

@Steven_Swinford

Exclusive:

Rishi Sunak has not seen a “conference bounce” in polls despite unveiling a string of high-profile policies

Yougov poll for Times finds Labour retains a 21 point lead

Ban on cigarette sales very popular; opinion mixed on HS2 & A-levels

@Mexicanpete please explain

I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.

What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?

That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.

Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.

Why would I want to block you? Usually your posts are great, but in recent weeks you have become this weird Sunak booster. Why?

The Conservatives are going to claw back the victory. This is not like '97 it is like '92. The media are incredibly hostile which they weren't in '97 and Starmer is unfortunately an utter clown. Granted, not in the same league as Corbyn but an incompetent loser nonetheless.

I listened to the whole if Sunak's speech and I thought it was drops. The media interpretation has been somewhat more positive. Mainstream media have captured this insanity that Sunak is the "change" candidate, which you have to admit is pure Cummings insanity, but it's working.

FT

Starmer's refusal to reverse the axe to the line north of Birmingham in effect delivers the coup de grace to the Northern branch

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sophy Ridge on Sky posted their poll on the cancellation of HS2

Correct decision

Yes 34%
No 27%
D/K 39%

Is that a Voodoo poll?

Or from a BPC registered pollster?

No

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cookie said:

Anabobazina said:

algarkirk said:

Cookie said:

So after all that, Labour are going to do exactly the same. Come on Labour, pull your fingers out:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/05/keir-starmer-will-not-commit-reverse-rishi-sunak-hs2-cut/

Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.

Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.

But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the money

This article should be read by everyone interested in politics and economics

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/04/financial-crisis-political-class-lies/

You may be interested to know that I think he's 100% wrong. I'm going thru Peter Turchin's "End Times"[1] at the moment and I think he (Turchin) is right. The combination of popular immiseration and elite overproduction have led to the potential for revolution, where people qualified to wield power but denied it utilise disaffected masses to overthrow regimes. Allister Heath's prescription would just make the miserable poor more miserable and more poor, and that'll only make things worse.

Recall my past comments on Pensionerism. The preponderance of wealthy elderly means that old ideas will persist even when they stop working, and new ideas for a new age will die stillborn. The cure you prefer would have worked in a neoliberal age, but that age stopped around 2015. The current condition - retreating globalisation, less trade, more migration waves - require new solutions, and the old ways won't work. We have just spent two years pushing on a string with higher interest rates, and were surprised it didn't work. Making mistakes is one thing, but failing to learn from them is another.

[1] https://www.waterstones.com/book/end-times/peter-turchin//9780241553480

Stuartinromford said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sophy Ridge on Sky posted their poll on the cancellation of HS2

Correct decision

Yes 34%
No 27%
D/K 39%

Is that a Voodoo poll?

Or from a BPC registered pollster?

FindOutNow;

https://news.sky.com/story/tory-conference-latest-rishi-sunak-to-make-speech-to-tory-faithful-after-conference-overshadowed-by-hs2-backlash-12593360?postid=6535851#liveblog-body

But the Conservative members figures from the same poll;

Yes 66%
No 18%
D/K 16%

The faithful are still faithful.

In that poll they found 2,019 national voters, and 437 Conservative members? Really?

SNP blaming Tory voters going over to Labour, on Newsnight.

Andy_JS said:

SNP blaming Tory voters going over to Labour, on Newsnight.

Tactical voting for the union

TimS said:

biggles said:

Ratters said:

Scott_xP said:

@Steven_Swinford

Exclusive:

Rishi Sunak has not seen a “conference bounce” in polls despite unveiling a string of high-profile policies

Yougov poll for Times finds Labour retains a 21 point lead

Ban on cigarette sales very popular; opinion mixed on HS2 & A-levels

This is one of the few major set piece events before the election campaign. No polling bounce wouldn't be a great outcome to say the least.

Sunak has tried governing via minefield. The purpose of many of these announcements is to create a wedge with Labour to make them look fiscally irresponsible or taking money from your pocket.

Labour seems to be taking the approach of staying in the barracks and taking their time to decide on which fronts they want to fight. The mines go untouched.

What concerns me is the prospect of Sunak continuing to make actively harmful decisions until he can get Labour to step on one.

Is it? Autumn Statement. Budget. 2024 conference. Pre-election Autumn statement in 2024.

Plus anything else he wants to invent.

Don’t get me wrong, I think the Tories will lose, but the fat lady is only on verse one and she might yet stop singing with a bad throat.

There is something of the antibiotic-resistant superbug about the Tories, it’s true. Or at least after 13 years of them it feels that way. But I remember 1996. People felt the same, they couldn’t believe what the polls were showing.

And we also remember 2010. A lot of people believed we were into a new era of pendulum politics, the coalition might or might not survive for the whole 5 years, Labour might well be back again soon. But they weren’t. There’s no guarantee that things will swing straight back to a party that’s alienated most of the electorate and is gradually losing the ones it’s not alienated to death by natural causes.

There is no positive reason to vote conservative, none at all.

I don’t disagree. In general, I think alternating two four year terms of each party would be best for the country. Sadly I don’t get to choose.

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Scott_xP said:

@Steven_Swinford

Exclusive:

Rishi Sunak has not seen a “conference bounce” in polls despite unveiling a string of high-profile policies

Yougov poll for Times finds Labour retains a 21 point lead

Ban on cigarette sales very popular; opinion mixed on HS2 & A-levels

@Mexicanpete please explain

I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.

What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?

That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.

Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.

Why would I want to block you? Usually your posts are great, but in recent weeks you have become this weird Sunak booster. Why?

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Scott_xP said:

@Steven_Swinford

Exclusive:

Rishi Sunak has not seen a “conference bounce” in polls despite unveiling a string of high-profile policies

Yougov poll for Times finds Labour retains a 21 point lead

Ban on cigarette sales very popular; opinion mixed on HS2 & A-levels

@Mexicanpete please explain

I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.

What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?

That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.

Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.

Why would I want to block you? Usually your posts are great, but in recent weeks you have become this weird Sunak booster. Why?

The Conservatives are going to claw back the victory. This is not like '97 it is like '92. The media are incredibly hostile which they weren't in '97 and Starmer is unfortunately an utter clown. Granted, not in the same league as Corbyn but an incompetent loser nonetheless.

I listened to the whole if Sunak's speech and I thought it was drops. The media interpretation has been somewhat more positive. Mainstream media have captured this insanity that Sunak is the "change" candidate, which you have to admit is pure Cummings insanity, but it's working.

On what basis is it ‘working’?

Let's see the next Opinium. Single figures!

Farooq said:

Rutherglen predictions... have I missed anyone?

+ ? @TheScreamingEagles
+ 25 @OldKingCole
+ 25 @TimS
+ 666 @Omnium
+ 700 @Benpointer
+1500 @Andy_JS
+2048 @Farooq
+3000 @londonpubman
+4800 @Heathener
- 300 @rottenborough
- 471 @boulay

Can I have 1,900 !

Rogertrent said:

viewcode said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cookie said:

Anabobazina said:

algarkirk said:

Cookie said:

So after all that, Labour are going to do exactly the same. Come on Labour, pull your fingers out:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/05/keir-starmer-will-not-commit-reverse-rishi-sunak-hs2-cut/

Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.

Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.

But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the money

This article should be read by everyone interested in politics and economics

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/04/financial-crisis-political-class-lies/

You may be interested to know that I think he's 100% wrong. I'm going thru Peter Turchin's "End Times"[1] at the moment and I think he (Turchin) is right. The combination of popular immiseration and elite overproduction have led to the potential for revolution, where people qualified to wield power but denied it utilise disaffected masses to overthrow regimes. Allister Heath's prescription would just make the miserable poor more miserable and more poor, and that'll only make things worse.

Recall my past comments on Pensionerism. The preponderance of wealthy elderly means that old ideas will persist even when they stop working, and new ideas for a new age will die stillborn. The cure you prefer would have worked in a neoliberal age, but that age stopped around 2015. The current condition - retreating globalisation, less trade, more migration waves - require new solutions, and the old ways won't work. We have just spent two years pushing on a string with higher interest rates, and were surprised it didn't work. Making mistakes is one thing, but failing to learn from them is another.

[1] https://www.waterstones.com/book/end-times/peter-turchin//9780241553480

Fantastic comment. I was in a cab today and the cab driver said he didnt believe the mainstream media and he thought covid was a scam. Also said many of his friends thought the same way.

Was it on Nevsky Prospekt?

Farooq said:

Rutherglen predictions... have I missed anyone?

+ ? @TheScreamingEagles
+ 25 @OldKingCole
+ 25 @TimS
+ 666 @Omnium
+ 700 @Benpointer
+1500 @Andy_JS
+2048 @Farooq
+3000 @londonpubman
+4800 @Heathener
- 300 @rottenborough
- 471 @boulay

SNP by 250

Rogertrent said:

viewcode said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cookie said:

Anabobazina said:

algarkirk said:

Cookie said:

So after all that, Labour are going to do exactly the same. Come on Labour, pull your fingers out:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/05/keir-starmer-will-not-commit-reverse-rishi-sunak-hs2-cut/

Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.

Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.

But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the money

This article should be read by everyone interested in politics and economics

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/04/financial-crisis-political-class-lies/

You may be interested to know that I think he's 100% wrong. I'm going thru Peter Turchin's "End Times"[1] at the moment and I think he (Turchin) is right. The combination of popular immiseration and elite overproduction have led to the potential for revolution, where people qualified to wield power but denied it utilise disaffected masses to overthrow regimes. Allister Heath's prescription would just make the miserable poor more miserable and more poor, and that'll only make things worse.

Recall my past comments on Pensionerism. The preponderance of wealthy elderly means that old ideas will persist even when they stop working, and new ideas for a new age will die stillborn. The cure you prefer would have worked in a neoliberal age, but that age stopped around 2015. The current condition - retreating globalisation, less trade, more migration waves - require new solutions, and the old ways won't work. We have just spent two years pushing on a string with higher interest rates, and were surprised it didn't work. Making mistakes is one thing, but failing to learn from them is another.

[1] https://www.waterstones.com/book/end-times/peter-turchin//9780241553480

Fantastic comment. I was in a cab today and the cab driver said he didnt believe the mainstream media and he thought covid was a scam. Also said many of his friends thought the same way.

I spend a lot of time in taxis (it's how I get to the train station) and can personally confirm that several taxi drivers think as you describe

Farooq said:

Benpointer said:

Farooq said:

Rutherglen predictions... have I missed anyone?

+ ? @TheScreamingEagles
+ 25 @OldKingCole
+ 25 @TimS
+ 666 @Omnium
+ 700 @Benpointer
+1500 @Andy_JS
+2048 @Farooq
+3000 @londonpubman
+4800 @Heathener
- 300 @rottenborough
- 471 @boulay

At this precise moment I think TSE is spot on.

To be clear, TSE predicted an SNP win by an unspecified amount. I have a feeling he's wrong.

Ah, it should be "- ?" then.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Farooq said:

Rutherglen predictions... have I missed anyone?

+ ? @TheScreamingEagles
+ 25 @OldKingCole
+ 25 @TimS
+ 666 @Omnium
+ 700 @Benpointer
+1500 @Andy_JS
+2048 @Farooq
+3000 @londonpubman
+4800 @Heathener
- 300 @rottenborough
- 471 @boulay

Yeah, you missed me!

Labour by 2000

I'm feeling like Lab might take it by more than 4000.
Turnout mid 40s?

Just think, this time next year we could be arguing over the exit poll and waiting up to see the big heads roll.

Farooq said:

biggles said:

Farooq said:

Rutherglen predictions... have I missed anyone?

+ ? @TheScreamingEagles
+ 25 @OldKingCole
+ 25 @TimS
+ 666 @Omnium
+ 700 @Benpointer
+1500 @Andy_JS
+2048 @Farooq
+3000 @londonpubman
+4800 @Heathener
- 300 @rottenborough
- 471 @boulay

Can I let you know at about 0130?

You can!

But I won't count it.

More seriously, I don’t think anyone can sensibly play now as the SNP seem to have half conceded.

I would have said SNP by 500.

Farooq said:

Benpointer said:

Farooq said:

Rutherglen predictions... have I missed anyone?

+ ? @TheScreamingEagles
+ 25 @OldKingCole
+ 25 @TimS
+ 666 @Omnium
+ 700 @Benpointer
+1500 @Andy_JS
+2048 @Farooq
+3000 @londonpubman
+4800 @Heathener
- 300 @rottenborough
- 471 @boulay

At this precise moment I think TSE is spot on.

To be clear, TSE predicted an SNP win by an unspecified amount. I have a feeling he's wrong.

I said it was my book talking.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Farooq said:

Rutherglen predictions... have I missed anyone?

+ ? @TheScreamingEagles
+ 25 @OldKingCole
+ 25 @TimS
+ 666 @Omnium
+ 700 @Benpointer
+1500 @Andy_JS
+2048 @Farooq
+3000 @londonpubman
+4800 @Heathener
- 300 @rottenborough
- 471 @boulay

Yeah, you missed me!

Labour by 2000

And me - Labour by 3800.

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Farooq said:

Rutherglen predictions... have I missed anyone?

+ ? @TheScreamingEagles
+ 25 @OldKingCole
+ 25 @TimS
+ 666 @Omnium
+ 700 @Benpointer
+1500 @Andy_JS
+2048 @Farooq
+3000 @londonpubman
+4800 @Heathener
- 300 @rottenborough
- 471 @boulay

Yeah, you missed me!

Labour by 2000

I'm feeling like Lab might take it by more than 4000.
Turnout mid 40s?

Labour +4000 on a turnout of 45% would be a big win.

carnforth said:

The RAAC stuff seems to have fallen entirely out of popular view.

It's just crumbled away.

biggles said:

Farooq said:

biggles said:

Farooq said:

Rutherglen predictions... have I missed anyone?

+ ? @TheScreamingEagles
+ 25 @OldKingCole
+ 25 @TimS
+ 666 @Omnium
+ 700 @Benpointer
+1500 @Andy_JS
+2048 @Farooq
+3000 @londonpubman
+4800 @Heathener
- 300 @rottenborough
- 471 @boulay

Can I let you know at about 0130?

You can!

But I won't count it.

More seriously, I don’t think anyone can sensibly play now as the SNP seem to have half conceded.

I would have said SNP by 500.

Looks like Yousaf will likely lose his first parliamentary by election as SNP leader then, will likely provoke some grumbles in SNP ranks

viewcode said:

Rogertrent said:

Fantastic comment. I was in a cab today and the cab driver said he didnt believe the mainstream media and he thought covid was a scam. Also said many of his friends thought the same way.

I spend a lot of time in taxis (it's how I get to the train station) and can personally confirm that several taxi drivers think as you describe

I was impressed last year in Liverpool when the taxi-driver held forth about the way the City of Culture award had really boosted Liverpool, and the galleries and theatre were great. I realised I harboured dark prejudices about reactionary Sun-reading taxi-drivers and was suitably abashed.

carnforth said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

viewcode said:

Rogertrent said:

viewcode said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cookie said:

Anabobazina said:

algarkirk said:

Cookie said:

So after all that, Labour are going to do exactly the same. Come on Labour, pull your fingers out:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/05/keir-starmer-will-not-commit-reverse-rishi-sunak-hs2-cut/

Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.

Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.

But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the money

This article should be read by everyone interested in politics and economics

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/04/financial-crisis-political-class-lies/

You may be interested to know that I think he's 100% wrong. I'm going thru Peter Turchin's "End Times"[1] at the moment and I think he (Turchin) is right. The combination of popular immiseration and elite overproduction have led to the potential for revolution, where people qualified to wield power but denied it utilise disaffected masses to overthrow regimes. Allister Heath's prescription would just make the miserable poor more miserable and more poor, and that'll only make things worse.

Recall my past comments on Pensionerism. The preponderance of wealthy elderly means that old ideas will persist even when they stop working, and new ideas for a new age will die stillborn. The cure you prefer would have worked in a neoliberal age, but that age stopped around 2015. The current condition - retreating globalisation, less trade, more migration waves - require new solutions, and the old ways won't work. We have just spent two years pushing on a string with higher interest rates, and were surprised it didn't work. Making mistakes is one thing, but failing to learn from them is another.

[1] https://www.waterstones.com/book/end-times/peter-turchin//9780241553480

Fantastic comment. I was in a cab today and the cab driver said he didnt believe the mainstream media and he thought covid was a scam. Also said many of his friends thought the same way.

I spend a lot of time in taxis (it's how I get to the train station) and can personally confirm that several taxi drivers think as you describe

Taxi drivers have been mental for as long as I can rember conversations with taxi drivers.

Normally the white ones, though. Although a couple of times I've listened to anti-muslim rants from Hindu drivers, just for variation.

Weirdly, although Americans are fairly mental by and large, American taxi drivers tend to be less mental than British ones, for some reason. Often well educated immigrants listening to the BBC world service. Go figure!

HYUFD said:

biggles said:

Farooq said:

biggles said:

Farooq said:

Rutherglen predictions... have I missed anyone?

+ ? @TheScreamingEagles
+ 25 @OldKingCole
+ 25 @TimS
+ 666 @Omnium
+ 700 @Benpointer
+1500 @Andy_JS
+2048 @Farooq
+3000 @londonpubman
+4800 @Heathener
- 300 @rottenborough
- 471 @boulay

Can I let you know at about 0130?

You can!

But I won't count it.

More seriously, I don’t think anyone can sensibly play now as the SNP seem to have half conceded.

I would have said SNP by 500.

Looks like Yousaf will likely lose his first parliamentary by election as SNP leader then, will likely provoke some grumbles in SNP ranks

The SNP reaction to a heavy defeat will be something to savour

Farooq said:

Rutherglen predictions... have I missed anyone?

+ ? @TheScreamingEagles
+ 25 @OldKingCole
+ 25 @TimS
+ 666 @Omnium
+ 700 @Benpointer
+1500 @Andy_JS
+2048 @Farooq
+3000 @londonpubman
+4800 @Heathener
- 300 @rottenborough
- 471 @boulay

Yes - I said earlier: Labour by 5,216.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Scott_xP said:

@Steven_Swinford

Exclusive:

Rishi Sunak has not seen a “conference bounce” in polls despite unveiling a string of high-profile policies

Yougov poll for Times finds Labour retains a 21 point lead

Ban on cigarette sales very popular; opinion mixed on HS2 & A-levels

@Mexicanpete please explain

I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.

What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?

That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.

Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.

Why would I want to block you? Usually your posts are great, but in recent weeks you have become this weird Sunak booster. Why?

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Scott_xP said:

@Steven_Swinford

Exclusive:

Rishi Sunak has not seen a “conference bounce” in polls despite unveiling a string of high-profile policies

Yougov poll for Times finds Labour retains a 21 point lead

Ban on cigarette sales very popular; opinion mixed on HS2 & A-levels

@Mexicanpete please explain

I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.

What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?

That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.

Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.

Why would I want to block you? Usually your posts are great, but in recent weeks you have become this weird Sunak booster. Why?

The Conservatives are going to claw back the victory. This is not like '97 it is like '92. The media are incredibly hostile which they weren't in '97 and Starmer is unfortunately an utter clown. Granted, not in the same league as Corbyn but an incompetent loser nonetheless.

I listened to the whole if Sunak's speech and I thought it was drops. The media interpretation has been somewhat more positive. Mainstream media have captured this insanity that Sunak is the "change" candidate, which you have to admit is pure Cummings insanity, but it's working.

On what basis is it ‘working’?

Let's see the next Opinium. Single figures!

You just cherrypicking polls now? There’s a poll out literally tonight with a 21 point lead
which you choose to ignore presumably? In any case, it’s boring reading your posts on this matter because you have a hypothesis and fit the evidence around it rather than vice versa. Of course, you might end up being right, but droning on about it without any evidence won’t be the reason if you are.

Pot calling the kettle black comes to mind

No

Anabobazina said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Scott_xP said:

@Steven_Swinford

Exclusive:

Rishi Sunak has not seen a “conference bounce” in polls despite unveiling a string of high-profile policies

Yougov poll for Times finds Labour retains a 21 point lead

Ban on cigarette sales very popular; opinion mixed on HS2 & A-levels

@Mexicanpete please explain

I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.

What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?

That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.

Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.

Why would I want to block you? Usually your posts are great, but in recent weeks you have become this weird Sunak booster. Why?

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Scott_xP said:

@Steven_Swinford

Exclusive:

Rishi Sunak has not seen a “conference bounce” in polls despite unveiling a string of high-profile policies

Yougov poll for Times finds Labour retains a 21 point lead

Ban on cigarette sales very popular; opinion mixed on HS2 & A-levels

@Mexicanpete please explain

I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.

What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?

That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.

Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.

Why would I want to block you? Usually your posts are great, but in recent weeks you have become this weird Sunak booster. Why?

The Conservatives are going to claw back the victory. This is not like '97 it is like '92. The media are incredibly hostile which they weren't in '97 and Starmer is unfortunately an utter clown. Granted, not in the same league as Corbyn but an incompetent loser nonetheless.

I listened to the whole if Sunak's speech and I thought it was drops. The media interpretation has been somewhat more positive. Mainstream media have captured this insanity that Sunak is the "change" candidate, which you have to admit is pure Cummings insanity, but it's working.

On what basis is it ‘working’?

Let's see the next Opinium. Single figures!

You just cherrypicking polls now? There’s a poll out literally tonight with a 21 point lead
which you choose to ignore presumably? In any case, it’s boring reading your posts on this matter because you have a hypothesis and fit the evidence around it rather than vice versa. Of course, you might end up being right, but droning on about it without any evidence won’t be the reason if you are.

Pot calling the kettle black comes to mind

No

Yes

Cyclefree said:

Farooq said:

Rutherglen predictions... have I missed anyone?

+ ? @TheScreamingEagles
+ 25 @OldKingCole
+ 25 @TimS
+ 666 @Omnium
+ 700 @Benpointer
+1500 @Andy_JS
+2048 @Farooq
+3000 @londonpubman
+4800 @Heathener
- 300 @rottenborough
- 471 @boulay

Yes - I said earlier: Labour by 5,216.

That would be a big win.

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

biggles said:

Farooq said:

biggles said:

Farooq said:

Rutherglen predictions... have I missed anyone?

+ ? @TheScreamingEagles
+ 25 @OldKingCole
+ 25 @TimS
+ 666 @Omnium
+ 700 @Benpointer
+1500 @Andy_JS
+2048 @Farooq
+3000 @londonpubman
+4800 @Heathener
- 300 @rottenborough
- 471 @boulay

Can I let you know at about 0130?

You can!

But I won't count it.

More seriously, I don’t think anyone can sensibly play now as the SNP seem to have half conceded.

I would have said SNP by 500.

Looks like Yousaf will likely lose his first parliamentary by election as SNP leader then, will likely provoke some grumbles in SNP ranks

The SNP reaction to a heavy defeat will be something to savour

The blood letting if they get routed will keep us going for days. I'm only really in this one for the entertainment value of the penny dropping that they are in for an absolute pasting at the GE.

In the central belt especially

Farooq said:

Removing TSE then

SNP WIN
- 500 @biggles
- 471 @boulay
- 300 @rottenborough
- 300 @Luckyguy1983
TIE
+ 25 @OldKingCole
+ 25 @TimS
+ 250 @Foxy
+ 666 @Omnium
+ 700 @Benpointer
+1500 @Andy_JS
+1650 @Pro_Rata
+1900 @Nico (I assume you mean Labour win?)
+2000 @Sunil_Prasannan
+2048 @Farooq
+3000 @londonpubman
+4000 @AramintaMoonbeamQC
+4800 @Heathener
LABOUR WIN

Ok, apologies to those I missed, I only scanned the previous thread for replies to me, may have missed others.

Labour +3000

Benpointer said:

rcs1000 said:

Cyclefree said:

Farooq said:

Rutherglen predictions... have I missed anyone?

+ ? @TheScreamingEagles
+ 25 @OldKingCole
+ 25 @TimS
+ 666 @Omnium
+ 700 @Benpointer
+1500 @Andy_JS
+2048 @Farooq
+3000 @londonpubman
+4800 @Heathener
- 300 @rottenborough
- 471 @boulay

Yes - I said earlier: Labour by 5,216.

Me - Labour by 1,500 to 2,000

Point of order - pick a number - A number.

I think he picked 1,750.

Farooq said:

viewcode said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cookie said:

Anabobazina said:

algarkirk said:

Cookie said:

So after all that, Labour are going to do exactly the same. Come on Labour, pull your fingers out:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/05/keir-starmer-will-not-commit-reverse-rishi-sunak-hs2-cut/

Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.

Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.

But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the money

This article should be read by everyone interested in politics and economics

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/04/financial-crisis-political-class-lies/

You may be interested to know that I think he's 100% wrong. I'm going thru Peter Turchin's "End Times"[1] at the moment and I think he (Turchin) is right. The combination of popular immiseration and elite overproduction have led to the potential for revolution, where people qualified to wield power but denied it utilise disaffected masses to overthrow regimes. Allister Heath's prescription would just make the miserable poor more miserable and more poor, and that'll only make things worse.

Recall my past comments on Pensionerism. The preponderance of wealthy elderly means that old ideas will persist even when they stop working, and new ideas for a new age will die stillborn. The cure you prefer would have worked in a neoliberal age, but that age stopped around 2015. The current condition - retreating globalisation, less trade, more migration waves - require new solutions, and the old ways won't work. We have just spent two years pushing on a string with higher interest rates, and were surprised it didn't work. Making mistakes is one thing, but failing to learn from them is another.

[1] https://www.waterstones.com/book/end-times/peter-turchin//9780241553480

Who exactly is qualified to wield power but also willing to utilise disaffected masses to overthrow regimes?

My judgement of the former would be somewhat* tempered by the latter.

*utterly

In Turchin terms, "elites" is a simple synonym for "power havers". "Elite overproduction" is when people capable of wielding power (I used the word "qualified" above, which misled, my apologies) are denied it thru simple lack of powerful positions. He uses it to refer to well-educated people with professional/academic positions who have sufficient interest in the world and sufficient time to formulate theories.

Here's a thing: Lenin trained to be a lawyer, Stalin a priest, Mao a teacher/librarian, Hitler an artist. All in different circumstances would be comfortable professionals. But lacking a outlet for their gifts and surrounded by disaffected, they went into politics, won, overthrew the existing order and remade the world...and we spent fifty years cleaning up after them.

Although not in the same league (obvs) consider somebody like Matthew Goodwin. A man of considerable gifts and academic achievement, he has the time and intelligence to build an underlying theory of the world and the desire to change the world accordingly. But in a nation of 68 million people (69, 70...remember, it's increasing) and only 650 seats at the top level and a few thou(?) at devolved level, he cannot wield the power he believes to be his right.

So my answer to your question is "...well-educated people/autodidacts with professional/academic positions who have sufficient interest in the world, sufficient time to formulate theories, and sufficient resources to pursue power..."

Does that answer your question?

+5215

….

I have no idea who will win tonight, have not researched the situation and so cannot predict. Best of luck to all those of you who have placed a bet and I hope you make a profit.

Labour win with 4K majority IMO.

One of the candidates in Rutherglen is:

Prince Ankit Love, Emperor of India

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Scott_xP said:

@Steven_Swinford

Exclusive:

Rishi Sunak has not seen a “conference bounce” in polls despite unveiling a string of high-profile policies

Yougov poll for Times finds Labour retains a 21 point lead

Ban on cigarette sales very popular; opinion mixed on HS2 & A-levels

@Mexicanpete please explain

I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.

What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?

That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.

Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.

Why would I want to block you? Usually your posts are great, but in recent weeks you have become this weird Sunak booster. Why?

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Scott_xP said:

@Steven_Swinford

Exclusive:

Rishi Sunak has not seen a “conference bounce” in polls despite unveiling a string of high-profile policies

Yougov poll for Times finds Labour retains a 21 point lead

Ban on cigarette sales very popular; opinion mixed on HS2 & A-levels

@Mexicanpete please explain

I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.

What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?

That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.

Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.

Why would I want to block you? Usually your posts are great, but in recent weeks you have become this weird Sunak booster. Why?

The Conservatives are going to claw back the victory. This is not like '97 it is like '92. The media are incredibly hostile which they weren't in '97 and Starmer is unfortunately an utter clown. Granted, not in the same league as Corbyn but an incompetent loser nonetheless.

I listened to the whole if Sunak's speech and I thought it was drops. The media interpretation has been somewhat more positive. Mainstream media have captured this insanity that Sunak is the "change" candidate, which you have to admit is pure Cummings insanity, but it's working.

On what basis is it ‘working’?

Let's see the next Opinium. Single figures!

You just cherrypicking polls now? There’s a poll out literally tonight with a 21 point lead
which you choose to ignore presumably? In any case, it’s boring reading your posts on this matter because you have a hypothesis and fit the evidence around it rather than vice versa. Of course, you might end up being right, but droning on about it without any evidence won’t be the reason if you are.

Pot calling the kettle black comes to mind

No

Right, that's it! I'm voting Conservative just to piss you off.

I thought you already were.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Farooq said:

Removing TSE then

SNP WIN
- 500 @biggles
- 471 @boulay
- 300 @rottenborough
- 300 @Luckyguy1983
TIE
+ 25 @OldKingCole
+ 25 @TimS
+ 250 @Foxy
+ 666 @Omnium
+ 700 @Benpointer
+1500 @Andy_JS
+1650 @Pro_Rata
+1900 @Nico (I assume you mean Labour win?)
+2000 @Sunil_Prasannan
+2048 @Farooq
+3000 @londonpubman
+4000 @AramintaMoonbeamQC
+4800 @Heathener
LABOUR WIN

Ok, apologies to those I missed, I only scanned the previous thread for replies to me, may have missed others.

Labour +3000

Labour +6000

Labour 5,

Fairliered said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Farooq said:

Removing TSE then

SNP WIN
- 500 @biggles
- 471 @boulay
- 300 @rottenborough
- 300 @Luckyguy1983
TIE
+ 25 @OldKingCole
+ 25 @TimS
+ 250 @Foxy
+ 666 @Omnium
+ 700 @Benpointer
+1500 @Andy_JS
+1650 @Pro_Rata
+1900 @Nico (I assume you mean Labour win?)
+2000 @Sunil_Prasannan
+2048 @Farooq
+3000 @londonpubman
+4000 @AramintaMoonbeamQC
+4800 @Heathener
LABOUR WIN

Ok, apologies to those I missed, I only scanned the previous thread for replies to me, may have missed others.

Labour +3000

Labour +6000

Labour 5,000

viewcode said:

Farooq said:

viewcode said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cookie said:

Anabobazina said:

algarkirk said:

Cookie said:

So after all that, Labour are going to do exactly the same. Come on Labour, pull your fingers out:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/10/05/keir-starmer-will-not-commit-reverse-rishi-sunak-hs2-cut/

Not fair to Sir K. He has unavoidably not made a commitment. To do so is to fall into the trap set for him - it's a massive spending commitment he cannot make before an election. Sir K can't commit to an extra billion let alone many billions. But he has left the door open. Expect lots more of this.

Indeed. The Tories must think Royale is stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them.

But in theory this isn't about money. Both sides are saying they'd spend the money

This article should be read by everyone interested in politics and economics

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/04/financial-crisis-political-class-lies/

You may be interested to know that I think he's 100% wrong. I'm going thru Peter Turchin's "End Times"[1] at the moment and I think he (Turchin) is right. The combination of popular immiseration and elite overproduction have led to the potential for revolution, where people qualified to wield power but denied it utilise disaffected masses to overthrow regimes. Allister Heath's prescription would just make the miserable poor more miserable and more poor, and that'll only make things worse.

Recall my past comments on Pensionerism. The preponderance of wealthy elderly means that old ideas will persist even when they stop working, and new ideas for a new age will die stillborn. The cure you prefer would have worked in a neoliberal age, but that age stopped around 2015. The current condition - retreating globalisation, less trade, more migration waves - require new solutions, and the old ways won't work. We have just spent two years pushing on a string with higher interest rates, and were surprised it didn't work. Making mistakes is one thing, but failing to learn from them is another.

[1] https://www.waterstones.com/book/end-times/peter-turchin//9780241553480

Who exactly is qualified to wield power but also willing to utilise disaffected masses to overthrow regimes?

My judgement of the former would be somewhat* tempered by the latter.

*utterly

In Turchin terms, "elites" is a simple synonym for "power havers". "Elite overproduction" is when people capable of wielding power (I used the word "qualified" above, which misled, my apologies) are denied it thru simple lack of powerful positions. He uses it to refer to well-educated people with professional/academic positions who have sufficient interest in the world and sufficient time to formulate theories.

Here's a thing: Lenin trained to be a lawyer, Stalin a priest, Mao a teacher/librarian, Hitler an artist. All in different circumstances would be comfortable professionals. But lacking a outlet for their gifts and surrounded by disaffected, they went into politics, won, overthrew the existing order and remade the world...and we spent fifty years cleaning up after them.

Although not in the same league (obvs) consider somebody like Matthew Goodwin. A man of considerable gifts and academic achievement, he has the time and intelligence to build an underlying theory of the world and the desire to change the world accordingly. But in a nation of 68 million people (69, 70...remember, it's increasing) and only 650 seats at the top level and a few thou(?) at devolved level, he cannot wield the power he believes to be his right.

So my answer to your question is "...well-educated people/autodidacts with professional/academic positions who have sufficient interest in the world, sufficient time to formulate theories, and sufficient resources to pursue power..."

Does that answer your question?

Goodwined the thread good and proper with that one.

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Scott_xP said:

@Steven_Swinford

Exclusive:

Rishi Sunak has not seen a “conference bounce” in polls despite unveiling a string of high-profile policies

Yougov poll for Times finds Labour retains a 21 point lead

Ban on cigarette sales very popular; opinion mixed on HS2 & A-levels

@Mexicanpete please explain

I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.

What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?

That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.

Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.

Why would I want to block you? Usually your posts are great, but in recent weeks you have become this weird Sunak booster. Why?

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Scott_xP said:

@Steven_Swinford

Exclusive:

Rishi Sunak has not seen a “conference bounce” in polls despite unveiling a string of high-profile policies

Yougov poll for Times finds Labour retains a 21 point lead

Ban on cigarette sales very popular; opinion mixed on HS2 & A-levels

@Mexicanpete please explain

I didn't say yesterday's policies including Streeting's cigarette ban are necessarily positive.

What I suggested was Sunak/Cummings are rather clever in salting the earth in the event of a Labour win. It lays the land for a Labour government to fail quickly and a swift return for the Tories. I don't think we have ever seen this before in the UK, but Cummings is a strange lad. Has he thought through a Sunak win though?

That was just yesterday. Every day seemingly you are droning about ‘game changers’ and LBC audiences and blah blah fucking blah, I don’t know if it’s reverse psychology or what, but you are like broken record.

Dura Ace explained a couple of weeks ago how to block posts from specific posters. I suggest you scroll back and have a look and follow his instructions.

Why would I want to block you? Usually your posts are great, but in recent weeks you have become this weird Sunak booster. Why?

The Conservatives are going to claw back the victory. This is not like '97 it is like '92. The media are incredibly hostile which they weren't in '97 and Starmer is unfortunately an utter clown. Granted, not in the same league as Corbyn but an incompetent loser nonetheless.

I listened to the whole if Sunak's speech and I thought it was drops. The media interpretation has been somewhat more positive. Mainstream media have captured this insanity that Sunak is the "change" candidate, which you have to admit is pure Cummings insanity, but it's working.

On what basis is it ‘working’?

Let's see the next Opinium. Single figures!

You just cherrypicking polls now? There’s a poll out literally tonight with a 21 point lead
which you choose to ignore presumably? In any case, it’s boring reading your posts on this matter because you have a hypothesis and fit the evidence around it rather than vice versa. Of course, you might end up being right, but droning on about it without any evidence won’t be the reason if you are.

Pot calling the kettle black comes to mind

No

Right, that's it! I'm voting Conservative just to piss you off.

I thought you already were.

I have never once voted Tory, but you've asked for it now!

Up to you.

The interesting thing will be applying the swing from SNP to Lab to all the other SNP seats in Scotland to see how many they would hold onto if Rutherglen is typical.

Farooq said:

Foxy said:

Farooq said:

NickPalmer said:

And me - Labour by 3800.

Apologies

SNP WIN
- 500 @biggles
- 471 @boulay
- 300 @rottenborough
- 300 @Luckyguy1983
TIE
+ 25 @OldKingCole
+ 25 @TimS
+ 250 @Foxy
+ 666 @Omnium
+ 700 @Benpointer
+1500 @Andy_JS
+1650 @Pro_Rata
+1900 @Nico (I assume you mean Labour win?)
+2000 @Sunil_Prasannan
+2048 @Farooq
+3000 @londonpubman
+3800 @NickPalmer
+4000 @AramintaMoonbeamQC
+4800 @Heathener
LABOUR WIN

I should be SNP win by 250, so -250 , not +250.

I reckon Nats are very sticky, but sounds as if I may well be completely out.

Sorry, updated it at my end but not posting list after embarrassing list every time someone points out another mistake.

Can you tell I've been at the whisky?

I'll update in the morning if nobody else does it overnight.

No problem.

I have just been watching Local Hero, recorded the other night, and somehow missed by me previously.

Strangely topical in its story of opening a Scottish offshore oilfield, left behind town and Environmentalism. I rather liked it.