Most GOP voters would support Trump even if he’s convicted – politicalbetting.com

OnlyLivingBoy said:

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2023/aug/23/staggering-incompetence-dfe-under-fire-new-school-buildings-closed

This government is so unbelievably shit. Or maybe they actually hate kids in the state school system. That would explain a lot of what they get up to.

That's not incompetence by the DfE.

In fact, by their standards actually spotting a mistake of this size before it causes irreparable harm is quite a good performance.

ydoethur said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2023/aug/23/staggering-incompetence-dfe-under-fire-new-school-buildings-closed

This government is so unbelievably shit. Or maybe they actually hate kids in the state school system. That would explain a lot of what they get up to.

That's not incompetence by the DfE.

In fact, by their standards actually spotting a mistake of this size before it causes irreparable harm is quite a good performance.

The worst thing is that's not even a joke.

‘Staggering incompetence’: DfE under fire as new school buildings closed
Disruption as buildings shut due to safety fears while others under construction have had to be demolished
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2023/aug/23/staggering-incompetence-dfe-under-fire-new-school-buildings-closed

Nick Gibb, looking ever more cadaverous features prominently.

Just heard the news. Pretty stupid to get on that plane.

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2023/aug/23/staggering-incompetence-dfe-under-fire-new-school-buildings-closed

This government is so unbelievably shit. Or maybe they actually hate kids in the state school system. That would explain a lot of what they get up to.

That's not incompetence by the DfE.

In fact, by their standards actually spotting a mistake of this size before it causes irreparable harm is quite a good performance.

The worst thing is that's not even a joke.

No, it isn't.

Just as the jokes teachers tell about them are not funny because they're true.

bigjohnowls said:

SKS FANS PLEASE EXPLAIN

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1694413821811560792/photo/1

Those guys get their numbers wrong on a regular basis.

Anyway, Keith has a 25 point lead on today's poll. Crank left said non crankies insisted any other leader would be 20 points ahead. And he's 25 ahead.

YOU EXPLAIN

No idea of the veracity : https://twitter.com/archer83able/status/1694429238001037671

"#BREAKING: The bodies of Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin pulled out from the wreckage have been identified."

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

stodge said:

NickPalmer said:

rkrkrk said:

Any candidate for US president that gets ~65% of the vote from their party's primary voters is toast.

Normally yes. I suppose Trump path to winning is:

1. Ultraloyalists nominate him, regardless of trials.
2. The Democrat makes a terrible but non-fatal mistake, e.g. makes everyone think he's senile.
3. It's too late to choose a third candidate (one can't just stand, there are time limits and signature requirements to get on each state's ballot), so Trump wins.

Not more than a 10% chance IMO.

The bit I'm not sure about is the third candidate, Ralph Nader has stood but was he on the ballot in all 50 states or just some? Do not the requirements for getting on the ballot vary from state to state?

In 2000 general Ralph Nader was on the ballot in DC and every state EXCEPT for North Carolina, Oklahoma and South Dakota.

As for potential 3rd-party candidate, note that Ralph Perot did not announce he was running for President in 1992 until February of that year. He ended up with 18.9% of the popular vote.

Getting on the ballot is NOT too difficult in most states, and in few where it's hardest a candidate with real national appeal and potential should still be able to qualify.

Ross Perot at one stage led 1992 presidential polls.

Indeed in June 1992 one poll had Perot on 39% and Clinton and HW Bush on 24% each.

If it wasn't for Clinton's big post convention bounce in July Perot might even have won
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polling_for_United_States_presidential_elections#1992

kle4 said:

bigjohnowls said:

SKS FANS PLEASE EXPLAIN

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1694413821811560792/photo/1

He can afford to have higher unfavourables with London Labour voters if it means winning the country.

Corbyn of course won a landslide with London Labour voters in 2019 too, unfortunately for him the rest of the UK couldn't stand him

bigjohnowls said:

SKS FANS PLEASE EXPLAIN

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1694413821811560792/photo/1

SKSICIPM

Stuartinromford said:

TimS said:

bigjohnowls said:

SKS FANS PLEASE EXPLAIN

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1694413821811560792/photo/1

Timely reminder that for Corbyn fans, the most important measure of popularity is with the core vote.

Let's see a similar poll for leader popularity among Boston and Skegness Tory voters. Not going to be Sunak is it?

Can't do B+S, but...

📊Net rating with London *Conservative* voters:

🔵 Susan Hall +37
🔵 Rishi Sunak +3
🔴 Keir Starmer -42
⚪️ Jeremy Corbyn -62
🔴 Sadiq Khan -70

Via @YouGov, 9-14 August 2023

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1694415560686088407

London Tories hate Khan even more than Corbyn now, some achievement for him!

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

bigjohnowls said:

SKS FANS PLEASE EXPLAIN

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1694413821811560792/photo/1

He can afford to have higher unfavourables with London Labour voters if it means winning the country.

Corbyn of course won a landslide with London Labour voters in 2019 too, unfortunately for him the rest of the UK couldn't stand him

Were you up for Putney?

Yes and the 54 seats Labour lost to the Conservatives as well

squareroot2 said:

Some loon in the UN is saying the UK should give 24 trillion in reparations for slavery... and thats de minimus. This loony nonsense has to stop.

What is this "de minimus"?

RochdalePioneers said:

ohnotnow said:

No idea of the veracity : https://twitter.com/archer83able/status/1694429238001037671

"#BREAKING: The bodies of Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin pulled out from the wreckage have been identified."

And then thrown out of another window just to be sure

Russia is a civilised place. Nobody gets thrown out of windows. It's assisted falling.

ydoethur said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2023/aug/23/staggering-incompetence-dfe-under-fire-new-school-buildings-closed

This government is so unbelievably shit. Or maybe they actually hate kids in the state school system. That would explain a lot of what they get up to.

That's not incompetence by the DfE.

In fact, by their standards actually spotting a mistake of this size before it causes irreparable harm is quite a good performance.

My relative who runs a building company commented that the m2 cost in other bids for a school exceeded the cost for doing luxury basements in West London.

He semi joked that he would offer to do the local school, plus put a 30m swimming pool under it, for the prices on the tender.

I noticed that the plans were actually insane - glass walls with children facing the glass wall. So the board (mounted on the glass wall) would be invisible (contrast), because of the light around it….

glw said:

ohnotnow said:

No idea of the veracity : https://twitter.com/archer83able/status/1694429238001037671

"#BREAKING: The bodies of Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin pulled out from the wreckage have been identified."

It's always impressive how fast Russian authorities are at solving crimes and investigating "accidents", sometimes they even solve them before they occur.

Might have been dead before the bodies were even put on the plane.

I remember the case of a Kremlin critic who was shot dead just a few hundred yards from the Kremlin itself. Detective Putin took up the case immediately. Apparently it was a contract killing, with John Oliver I believe noting that the case would simply involving Putin paying the contractor what they were owed.

ThomasNashe said:

bigjohnowls said:

SKS FANS PLEASE EXPLAIN

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1694413821811560792/photo/1

SKSICIPM

Hopefully not he will offer working people Zero change.

A Wagner-linked channel says Prigozhin is dead.

"The leader of the Wagner Group, a Hero of Russia, a real patriot of his motherland – Yevgeny Prigozhin has died at the hands of traitors of Russia. But even in hell he'll be the best! Glory to Russia!"

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1694433544305623161

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

A Wagner-linked channel says Prigozhin is dead.

"The leader of the Wagner Group, a Hero of Russia, a real patriot of his motherland – Yevgeny Prigozhin has died at the hands of traitors of Russia. But even in hell he'll be the best! Glory to Russia!"

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1694433544305623161

Ananias and Hitler must be feeling enormous relief that there's an even bigger c*** than them turned up to be the best.

Shades (literally) of Dante's Inferno.

Well that's Everton fucked.

https://twitter.com/SkySportsNews/status/1694427438804021757

Could they break Derby's record?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well that's Everton fucked.

https://twitter.com/SkySportsNews/status/1694427438804021757

Could they break Derby's record?

Who gets the stadium?

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

bigjohnowls said:

SKS FANS PLEASE EXPLAIN

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1694413821811560792/photo/1

He can afford to have higher unfavourables with London Labour voters if it means winning the country.

Corbyn of course won a landslide with London Labour voters in 2019 too, unfortunately for him the rest of the UK couldn't stand him

Were you up for Putney?

Yes and the 54 seats Labour lost to the Conservatives as well

Putney was the standout though. What a result.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well that's Everton fucked.

https://twitter.com/SkySportsNews/status/1694427438804021757

Could they break Derby's record?

Time for Liverpool to do a reverse takeover of their founding club...

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1694396008321482950?t=uRSZVpAw11pw_cIusJySdA&s=19

"Russia says Yevgeny Prigozhin was on a plane that crashed on a flight from Moscow to St Petersburg. All passengers and crew, are dead.

Wagner-linked channels say Russian air defense *shot down the plane* – the same private jet Prigozhin regularly uses."

But who knows.

Nothing like shooting a plane out of the sky as a message for any Russian leadership thinking of crossing Putin.

HYUFD said:

Stuartinromford said:

TimS said:

bigjohnowls said:

SKS FANS PLEASE EXPLAIN

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1694413821811560792/photo/1

Timely reminder that for Corbyn fans, the most important measure of popularity is with the core vote.

Let's see a similar poll for leader popularity among Boston and Skegness Tory voters. Not going to be Sunak is it?

Can't do B+S, but...

📊Net rating with London *Conservative* voters:

🔵 Susan Hall +37
🔵 Rishi Sunak +3
🔴 Keir Starmer -42
⚪️ Jeremy Corbyn -62
🔴 Sadiq Khan -70

Via @YouGov, 9-14 August 2023

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1694415560686088407

London Tories hate Khan even more than Corbyn now, some achievement for him!

People always hate someone with power more.

Ratters said:

Nothing like shooting a plane out of the sky as a message for any Russian leadership thinking of crossing Putin.

Or as a message that you're a bunch of out-and-out gangsters, rather like the Kray twins but with less style.

..

ohnotnow said:

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1694396008321482950?t=uRSZVpAw11pw_cIusJySdA&s=19

"Russia says Yevgeny Prigozhin was on a plane that crashed on a flight from Moscow to St Petersburg. All passengers and crew, are dead.

Wagner-linked channels say Russian air defense *shot down the plane* – the same private jet Prigozhin regularly uses."

But who knows.

Oh

Ratters said:

Nothing like shooting a plane out of the sky as a message for any Russian leadership thinking of crossing Putin.

Looks like they totally missed yesterday, hitting the moon instead!

I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

Depends how she plays it but could be close.

ThomasNashe said:

bigjohnowls said:

SKS FANS PLEASE EXPLAIN

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1694413821811560792/photo/1

SKSICIPM

Interesting for betting on Islington North constituency result, where 72% of voters are either Labour or Green...

Sunil_Prasannan said:

In other news, I saw Oppenheimer with my brother and mum at the BFI IMAX in London this afternoon. We all felt was rather good, I have to say!

Does it have a happy ending?

Peter_the_Punter said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

In other news, I saw Oppenheimer with my brother and mum at the BFI IMAX in London this afternoon. We all felt was rather good, I have to say!

Does it have a happy ending?

Sort of!

Casino_Royale said:

I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

Depends how she plays it but could be close.

I don't have much faith these days in the electorate, but I don't believe they're crazy enough to come close to electing her in preference to Sadiq Khan.

Peter_the_Punter said:

Chris said:

Ratters said:

Nothing like shooting a plane out of the sky as a message for any Russian leadership thinking of crossing Putin.

Or as a message that you're a bunch of out-and-out gangsters, rather like the Kray twins but with less style.

Oi, wotchit.

Ronnie and Reggie were very nice to their Mum. But Vladimir wasn't.

Arthur Mullard: 'You knew the Krays, didn't you?'

Daniel Farson: 'Yes. I rather liked them. After all, they only killed their own kind.'

Arthur Mullard: 'Yuss. 'uman beings.'

Sunil_Prasannan said:

In other news, I saw Oppenheimer with my brother and mum at the BFI IMAX in London this afternoon. We all felt was rather good, I have to say!

Yes, I thought it was memorable. But even though I totally sympathise with the victims of McCarthyism, I thought the lengthy passages about committee hearings a bit long - yes, certainly unfair, but "X was unfair to Y in the 1950s" seems of limited interest in 2023. But the underlying theme resonates just the same.

williamglenn said:

One of the pro-Wagner channels is quoting Prigozhin: “It’s better to die a hero than live as a ****”

Well he rather missed his mark on that one.

Eabhal said:

Given housing crisis/soaring rents, is anyone else curious as to why Labour haven't made a bigger thing of short-term lets (Airbnb, for example)?

It would be a be an easy way to target 'commercial' landlords, would pick up votes from people who are struggling with rent/mortgages, and people like me who are constantly disturbed by noisy guests. It is also a cheap and easy compared to more substantive, and therefore controversial, solutions like building new homes or taxing empty bedrooms.

Argument against - a niche issue? Big one in Edinburgh, but we are tourist central.

But Labour do it in Edinburgh, albeit as a minority Labour admin, already. Or are trying to. Not sure of detailed origin of policy. But it's presumably related to SNP/etc Government policy on things like protecting renters and not allowing them to be thrown out for Festival time, which for Slab and SKS would mean SNP Baaad under their respective versions of the Bain Principle.

My view of the Edinburgh Festival and its Fringe went down even more, to about minus 11, a few years ago whem some luvvies whined they couldn't get comfortable short term accommodation any more because the landlords weren't allowed to evict at short notice.

When will we see the air accident investigation report ?

Carnyx said:

Eabhal said:

Given housing crisis/soaring rents, is anyone else curious as to why Labour haven't made a bigger thing of short-term lets (Airbnb, for example)?

It would be a be an easy way to target 'commercial' landlords, would pick up votes from people who are struggling with rent/mortgages, and people like me who are constantly disturbed by noisy guests. It is also a cheap and easy compared to more substantive, and therefore controversial, solutions like building new homes or taxing empty bedrooms.

Argument against - a niche issue? Big one in Edinburgh, but we are tourist central.

But Labour do it in Edinburgh, albeit as a minority Labour admin, already. Or are trying to. Not sure of detailed origin of policy. But it's presumably related to SNP/etc Government policy on things like protecting renters and not allowing them to be thrown out for Festival time, which for Slab and SKS would mean SNP Baaad under their respective versions of the Bain Principle.

My view of the Edinburgh Festival and its Fringe went down even more, to about minus 11, a few years ago whem some luvvies whined they couldn't get comfortable short term accommodation any more because the landlords weren't allowed to evict at short notice.

I used to be on one of the 9 month contracts. Positive and negatives, but had a very relaxed landlord which helped. But yes, I think the policy has had a strange side effect of permanent airbnbs rather than seasonal ones - it's still worth it just for renting out in August.

Anyway, my point is that it could be Labour's "jobs tax" (National Insurance in 2010) if rolled out UK-wide. A strong signal to the mortgage/renting class, while pissing off only the most of exploitative of landlords. Would also go down well in rural areas like Cornwall/Skye, but those aren't really target seats.

Cyclefree said:

Darren Jones, Chair of the Business Select Committee, has achieved more than Kemi Badenoch, Business Secretary and Kevin Hollinrake, Minister for Postal Affairs have.

And he's not letting up the pressure on the Post Office Board either.

If Labour win the next election I hope Starmer makes good use of him.

Select Committee chairs tend to have more knowledge of their brief than most ministers.

Not least because they have usually been in post longer - which is certainly true of this government and its revolving ministries.

Flatlander said:

Nigelb said:

When will we see the air accident investigation report ?

That was filed yesterday.

I was impressed by how quickly they identified the bodies, too.

Eabhal said:

Carnyx said:

Eabhal said:

Given housing crisis/soaring rents, is anyone else curious as to why Labour haven't made a bigger thing of short-term lets (Airbnb, for example)?

It would be a be an easy way to target 'commercial' landlords, would pick up votes from people who are struggling with rent/mortgages, and people like me who are constantly disturbed by noisy guests. It is also a cheap and easy compared to more substantive, and therefore controversial, solutions like building new homes or taxing empty bedrooms.

Argument against - a niche issue? Big one in Edinburgh, but we are tourist central.

But Labour do it in Edinburgh, albeit as a minority Labour admin, already. Or are trying to. Not sure of detailed origin of policy. But it's presumably related to SNP/etc Government policy on things like protecting renters and not allowing them to be thrown out for Festival time, which for Slab and SKS would mean SNP Baaad under their respective versions of the Bain Principle.

My view of the Edinburgh Festival and its Fringe went down even more, to about minus 11, a few years ago whem some luvvies whined they couldn't get comfortable short term accommodation any more because the landlords weren't allowed to evict at short notice.

I used to be on one of the 9 month contracts. Positive and negatives, but had a very relaxed landlord which helped. But yes, I think the policy has had a strange side effect of permanent airbnbs rather than seasonal ones - it's still worth it just for renting out in August.

Anyway, my point is that it could be Labour's "jobs tax" (National Insurance in 2010) if rolled out UK-wide. A strong signal to the mortgage/renting class, while pissing off only the most of exploitative of landlords. Would also go down well in rural areas like Cornwall/Skye, but those aren't really target seats.

The crackdown in airbnbs is allegedly causing a great reduction (see Times today or a day or two ago). Lots of slanted stuff and axe-grinding from the landlords. But **** them, is the mood, it seems. The resentment in Edinburgh is already huge what with the abuses of stag parties, airbnb, filth, noise and disruption, the rise in student numbers, and the commercial student barracks already popping up here and there, so I gather.

As for other areas, it would presumably be purely optional for each council - analogous to the stuff on holiday homes being provided by the SNP, Llafur and the "Conservative" Party in London. If there is no problem, the councils are less likely to activate the powers - and if there is a problem, there are votes in activating them, so I can't quite see the issue.

Benpointer said:

Casino_Royale said:

I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

Depends how she plays it but could be close.

I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

(*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)

I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.

Tories in London gutted that ULEZ was a Johnson idea

Cyclefree said:

Darren Jones, Chair of the Business Select Committee, has achieved more than Kemi Badenoch, Business Secretary and Kevin Hollinrake, Minister for Postal Affairs have.

And he's not letting up the pressure on the Post Office Board either.

If Labour win the next election I hope Starmer makes good use of him.

It's good to have MPs like this of whatever party.

Carnyx said:

Re the mood in Edinburgh, where depopulation for the sake of airbnbs is an issue:

Irsvine Welsh a year or so back:

‘In places like our capital – a global tourist attraction – the people living there are increasingly irrelevant in a city being increasingly redesigned to attract tourists, wealthy students, businesses and housing developers. The people who bring income are paramount, and our modern culture of cheap Airbnb accommodation, landlordism and commercial development constantly feeds the dominant narrative telling us that so-called “legacy citizens” are unnecessary, even a hindrance, to the city’s progress.'

https://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/people/irvine-welsh-ian-rankin-and-alexander-mccall-smith-join-forces-3521951

For further information see Venice.