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Most GOP voters would support Trump even if he’s convicted – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,382

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2023/aug/23/staggering-incompetence-dfe-under-fire-new-school-buildings-closed

    This government is so unbelievably shit. Or maybe they actually hate kids in the state school system. That would explain a lot of what they get up to.

    That's not incompetence by the DfE.

    In fact, by their standards actually spotting a mistake of this size before it causes irreparable harm is quite a good performance.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,191

    kle4 said:

    The drama of the situation is getting to me, I keep expecting a broadcast to be interrupted with a 'Prigozhin Lives!' exclamation like that cutscene from Tiberian Sun.

    Rule of thumb, Putin - you cannot kill the messiah.

    Putin IS the Messiah
    If you did the Life of Brian window scene in Russia, everyone would expect it to end with a defenestration.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,559
    ydoethur said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2023/aug/23/staggering-incompetence-dfe-under-fire-new-school-buildings-closed

    This government is so unbelievably shit. Or maybe they actually hate kids in the state school system. That would explain a lot of what they get up to.

    That's not incompetence by the DfE.

    In fact, by their standards actually spotting a mistake of this size before it causes irreparable harm is quite a good performance.
    The worst thing is that's not even a joke.
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,428
    Some loon in the UN is saying the UK should give 24 trillion in reparations for slavery... and thats de minimus. This loony nonsense has to stop.


  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,467
    edited August 2023
    ‘Staggering incompetence’: DfE under fire as new school buildings closed
    Disruption as buildings shut due to safety fears while others under construction have had to be demolished
    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2023/aug/23/staggering-incompetence-dfe-under-fire-new-school-buildings-closed

    Nick Gibb, looking ever more cadaverous features prominently.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,559
    He can afford to have higher unfavourables with London Labour voters if it means winning the country.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,634
    Just heard the news. Pretty stupid to get on that plane.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,785
    Timely reminder that for Corbyn fans, the most important measure of popularity is with the core vote.

    Let's see a similar poll for leader popularity among Boston and Skegness Tory voters. Not going to be Sunak is it?
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    MuesliMuesli Posts: 131

    kle4 said:

    The drama of the situation is getting to me, I keep expecting a broadcast to be interrupted with a 'Prigozhin Lives!' exclamation like that cutscene from Tiberian Sun.

    Rule of thumb, Putin - you cannot kill the messiah.

    Putin IS the Messiah
    He’s not the Messiah, he’s a very naughty boy.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,382
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2023/aug/23/staggering-incompetence-dfe-under-fire-new-school-buildings-closed

    This government is so unbelievably shit. Or maybe they actually hate kids in the state school system. That would explain a lot of what they get up to.

    That's not incompetence by the DfE.

    In fact, by their standards actually spotting a mistake of this size before it causes irreparable harm is quite a good performance.
    The worst thing is that's not even a joke.
    No, it isn't.

    Just as the jokes teachers tell about them are not funny because they're true.
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    Those guys get their numbers wrong on a regular basis.

    Anyway, Keith has a 25 point lead on today's poll. Crank left said non crankies insisted any other leader would be 20 points ahead. And he's 25 ahead.

    YOU EXPLAIN
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    FffsFffs Posts: 50

    Some loon in the UN is saying the UK should give 24 trillion in reparations for slavery... and thats de minimus. This loony nonsense has to stop.


    Meh, just some attention seeker attempting to get a rise out of people.

    Besides, UK national wealth only estimated at 10tn!

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/bulletins/nationalbalancesheet/2021
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    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,110
    No idea of the veracity : https://twitter.com/archer83able/status/1694429238001037671

    "#BREAKING: The bodies of Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin pulled out from the wreckage have been identified."
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,688

    kle4 said:

    The drama of the situation is getting to me, I keep expecting a broadcast to be interrupted with a 'Prigozhin Lives!' exclamation like that cutscene from Tiberian Sun.

    Rule of thumb, Putin - you cannot kill the messiah.

    Putin IS the Messiah
    No. He's just a naughty boy
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,213

    stodge said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Any candidate for US president that gets ~65% of the vote from their party's primary voters is toast.

    Normally yes. I suppose Trump path to winning is:

    1. Ultraloyalists nominate him, regardless of trials.
    2. The Democrat makes a terrible but non-fatal mistake, e.g. makes everyone think he's senile.
    3. It's too late to choose a third candidate (one can't just stand, there are time limits and signature requirements to get on each state's ballot), so Trump wins.

    Not more than a 10% chance IMO.
    The bit I'm not sure about is the third candidate, Ralph Nader has stood but was he on the ballot in all 50 states or just some? Do not the requirements for getting on the ballot vary from state to state?
    In 2000 general Ralph Nader was on the ballot in DC and every state EXCEPT for North Carolina, Oklahoma and South Dakota.

    As for potential 3rd-party candidate, note that Ralph Perot did not announce he was running for President in 1992 until February of that year. He ended up with 18.9% of the popular vote.

    Getting on the ballot is NOT too difficult in most states, and in few where it's hardest a candidate with real national appeal and potential should still be able to qualify.
    Ross Perot at one stage led 1992 presidential polls.

    Indeed in June 1992 one poll had Perot on 39% and Clinton and HW Bush on 24% each.

    If it wasn't for Clinton's big post convention bounce in July Perot might even have won
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polling_for_United_States_presidential_elections#1992
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,962
    Fffs said:

    Some loon in the UN is saying the UK should give 24 trillion in reparations for slavery... and thats de minimus. This loony nonsense has to stop.


    Meh, just some attention seeker attempting to get a rise out of people.

    Besides, UK national wealth only estimated at 10tn!

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/bulletins/nationalbalancesheet/2021
    Sort of scary that the government has chosen to borrow 10% or so of everything we've ever amounted to.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,213
    edited August 2023
    kle4 said:

    He can afford to have higher unfavourables with London Labour voters if it means winning the country.
    Corbyn of course won a landslide with London Labour voters in 2019 too, unfortunately for him the rest of the UK couldn't stand him
  • Options
    TimS said:

    Timely reminder that for Corbyn fans, the most important measure of popularity is with the core vote.

    Let's see a similar poll for leader popularity among Boston and Skegness Tory voters. Not going to be Sunak is it?
    Can't do B+S, but...

    📊Net rating with London *Conservative* voters:

    🔵 Susan Hall +37
    🔵 Rishi Sunak +3
    🔴 Keir Starmer -42
    ⚪️ Jeremy Corbyn -62
    🔴 Sadiq Khan -70

    Via @YouGov, 9-14 August 2023


    https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1694415560686088407
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,875
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    He can afford to have higher unfavourables with London Labour voters if it means winning the country.
    Corbyn of course won a landslide with London Labour voters in 2019 too, unfortunately for him the rest of the UK couldn't stand him
    Were you up for Putney?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,213

    TimS said:

    Timely reminder that for Corbyn fans, the most important measure of popularity is with the core vote.

    Let's see a similar poll for leader popularity among Boston and Skegness Tory voters. Not going to be Sunak is it?
    Can't do B+S, but...

    📊Net rating with London *Conservative* voters:

    🔵 Susan Hall +37
    🔵 Rishi Sunak +3
    🔴 Keir Starmer -42
    ⚪️ Jeremy Corbyn -62
    🔴 Sadiq Khan -70

    Via @YouGov, 9-14 August 2023


    https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1694415560686088407
    London Tories hate Khan even more than Corbyn now, some achievement for him!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,213
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    He can afford to have higher unfavourables with London Labour voters if it means winning the country.
    Corbyn of course won a landslide with London Labour voters in 2019 too, unfortunately for him the rest of the UK couldn't stand him
    Were you up for Putney?
    Yes and the 54 seats Labour lost to the Conservatives as well
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    ohnotnow said:

    No idea of the veracity : https://twitter.com/archer83able/status/1694429238001037671

    "#BREAKING: The bodies of Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin pulled out from the wreckage have been identified."

    And then thrown out of another window just to be sure
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,418

    Some loon in the UN is saying the UK should give 24 trillion in reparations for slavery... and thats de minimus. This loony nonsense has to stop.


    What is this "de minimus"?
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    Timely reminder that for Corbyn fans, the most important measure of popularity is with the core vote.

    Let's see a similar poll for leader popularity among Boston and Skegness Tory voters. Not going to be Sunak is it?
    Can't do B+S, but...

    📊Net rating with London *Conservative* voters:

    🔵 Susan Hall +37
    🔵 Rishi Sunak +3
    🔴 Keir Starmer -42
    ⚪️ Jeremy Corbyn -62
    🔴 Sadiq Khan -70

    Via @YouGov, 9-14 August 2023


    https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1694415560686088407
    London Tories hate Khan even more than Corbyn now, some achievement for him!
    That might just reflect London Conservative confinement to the grumpier bits of Zone 6.

    Philosophical question: If you don't think of yourself as being a Londoner, can you still be a London Conservative?
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,962

    ohnotnow said:

    No idea of the veracity : https://twitter.com/archer83able/status/1694429238001037671

    "#BREAKING: The bodies of Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin pulled out from the wreckage have been identified."

    And then thrown out of another window just to be sure
    Russia is a civilised place. Nobody gets thrown out of windows. It's assisted falling.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    Timely reminder that for Corbyn fans, the most important measure of popularity is with the core vote.

    Let's see a similar poll for leader popularity among Boston and Skegness Tory voters. Not going to be Sunak is it?
    Can't do B+S, but...

    📊Net rating with London *Conservative* voters:

    🔵 Susan Hall +37
    🔵 Rishi Sunak +3
    🔴 Keir Starmer -42
    ⚪️ Jeremy Corbyn -62
    🔴 Sadiq Khan -70

    Via @YouGov, 9-14 August 2023


    https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1694415560686088407
    London Tories hate Khan even more than Corbyn now, some achievement for him!
    Pity that there are so few London Tories. Or else you could run an interesting candidate and have a prospect of winning...
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,630
    ydoethur said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2023/aug/23/staggering-incompetence-dfe-under-fire-new-school-buildings-closed

    This government is so unbelievably shit. Or maybe they actually hate kids in the state school system. That would explain a lot of what they get up to.

    That's not incompetence by the DfE.

    In fact, by their standards actually spotting a mistake of this size before it causes irreparable harm is quite a good performance.
    My relative who runs a building company commented that the m2 cost in other bids for a school exceeded the cost for doing luxury basements in West London.

    He semi joked that he would offer to do the local school, plus put a 30m swimming pool under it, for the prices on the tender.

    I noticed that the plans were actually insane - glass walls with children facing the glass wall. So the board (mounted on the glass wall) would be invisible (contrast), because of the light around it….
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,213
    edited August 2023

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    Timely reminder that for Corbyn fans, the most important measure of popularity is with the core vote.

    Let's see a similar poll for leader popularity among Boston and Skegness Tory voters. Not going to be Sunak is it?
    Can't do B+S, but...

    📊Net rating with London *Conservative* voters:

    🔵 Susan Hall +37
    🔵 Rishi Sunak +3
    🔴 Keir Starmer -42
    ⚪️ Jeremy Corbyn -62
    🔴 Sadiq Khan -70

    Via @YouGov, 9-14 August 2023


    https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1694415560686088407
    London Tories hate Khan even more than Corbyn now, some achievement for him!
    That might just reflect London Conservative confinement to the grumpier bits of Zone 6.

    Philosophical question: If you don't think of yourself as being a Londoner, can you still be a London Conservative?
    There are also still plenty of London Conservatives in Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster, London Tories tend to be found most amongst the richest in central London and homeowners in the outer suburbs
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,559
    edited August 2023
    glw said:

    ohnotnow said:

    No idea of the veracity : https://twitter.com/archer83able/status/1694429238001037671

    "#BREAKING: The bodies of Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin pulled out from the wreckage have been identified."

    It's always impressive how fast Russian authorities are at solving crimes and investigating "accidents", sometimes they even solve them before they occur.
    Might have been dead before the bodies were even put on the plane.

    I remember the case of a Kremlin critic who was shot dead just a few hundred yards from the Kremlin itself. Detective Putin took up the case immediately. Apparently it was a contract killing, with John Oliver I believe noting that the case would simply involving Putin paying the contractor what they were owed.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,264
    Hopefully not he will offer working people Zero change.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,382

    ydoethur said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2023/aug/23/staggering-incompetence-dfe-under-fire-new-school-buildings-closed

    This government is so unbelievably shit. Or maybe they actually hate kids in the state school system. That would explain a lot of what they get up to.

    That's not incompetence by the DfE.

    In fact, by their standards actually spotting a mistake of this size before it causes irreparable harm is quite a good performance.
    My relative who runs a building company commented that the m2 cost in other bids for a school exceeded the cost for doing luxury basements in West London.

    He semi joked that he would offer to do the local school, plus put a 30m swimming pool under it, for the prices on the tender.

    I noticed that the plans were actually insane - glass walls with children facing the glass wall. So the board (mounted on the glass wall) would be invisible (contrast), because of the light around it….
    Have they at least ditched the L-shaped classrooms?
  • Options
    A Wagner-linked channel says Prigozhin is dead.

    "The leader of the Wagner Group, a Hero of Russia, a real patriot of his motherland – Yevgeny Prigozhin has died at the hands of traitors of Russia. But even in hell he'll be the best! Glory to Russia!"


    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1694433544305623161
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,382

    A Wagner-linked channel says Prigozhin is dead.

    "The leader of the Wagner Group, a Hero of Russia, a real patriot of his motherland – Yevgeny Prigozhin has died at the hands of traitors of Russia. But even in hell he'll be the best! Glory to Russia!"


    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1694433544305623161

    Ananias and Hitler must be feeling enormous relief that there's an even bigger c*** than them turned up to be the best.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,418
    ydoethur said:

    A Wagner-linked channel says Prigozhin is dead.

    "The leader of the Wagner Group, a Hero of Russia, a real patriot of his motherland – Yevgeny Prigozhin has died at the hands of traitors of Russia. But even in hell he'll be the best! Glory to Russia!"


    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1694433544305623161

    Ananias and Hitler must be feeling enormous relief that there's an even bigger c*** than them turned up to be the best.
    Shades (literally) of Dante's Inferno.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,630
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2023/aug/23/staggering-incompetence-dfe-under-fire-new-school-buildings-closed

    This government is so unbelievably shit. Or maybe they actually hate kids in the state school system. That would explain a lot of what they get up to.

    That's not incompetence by the DfE.

    In fact, by their standards actually spotting a mistake of this size before it causes irreparable harm is quite a good performance.
    My relative who runs a building company commented that the m2 cost in other bids for a school exceeded the cost for doing luxury basements in West London.

    He semi joked that he would offer to do the local school, plus put a 30m swimming pool under it, for the prices on the tender.

    I noticed that the plans were actually insane - glass walls with children facing the glass wall. So the board (mounted on the glass wall) would be invisible (contrast), because of the light around it….
    Have they at least ditched the L-shaped classrooms?
    No clue.

    I just remember looking at the 3Ds and going WTAF.

    That and talking to the caretaker of the Edwardian school my eldest went to. The roof trusses were oak - from ship breaking. He went up there every so often. Nothing changed in a hundred years. He reckoned that roof would outlive our grandchildren.
  • Options
    Well that's Everton fucked.

    https://twitter.com/SkySportsNews/status/1694427438804021757

    Could they break Derby's record?
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,962

    Hopefully not he will offer working people Zero change.
    Labour tax policy?
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    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,083

    Well that's Everton fucked.

    https://twitter.com/SkySportsNews/status/1694427438804021757

    Could they break Derby's record?

    Who gets the stadium?
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,505

    Well that's Everton fucked.

    https://twitter.com/SkySportsNews/status/1694427438804021757

    Could they break Derby's record?

    Will they complete the season?
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,875
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    He can afford to have higher unfavourables with London Labour voters if it means winning the country.
    Corbyn of course won a landslide with London Labour voters in 2019 too, unfortunately for him the rest of the UK couldn't stand him
    Were you up for Putney?
    Yes and the 54 seats Labour lost to the Conservatives as well
    Putney was the standout though. What a result.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,264
    Omnium said:

    Hopefully not he will offer working people Zero change.
    Labour tax policy?
    Same as the blue Tories AFAIK
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    Well that's Everton fucked.

    https://twitter.com/SkySportsNews/status/1694427438804021757

    Could they break Derby's record?

    Time for Liverpool to do a reverse takeover of their founding club...
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,264

    A Wagner-linked channel says Prigozhin is dead.

    "The leader of the Wagner Group, a Hero of Russia, a real patriot of his motherland – Yevgeny Prigozhin has died at the hands of traitors of Russia. But even in hell he'll be the best! Glory to Russia!"


    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1694433544305623161

    Oh
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    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,110
    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1694396008321482950?t=uRSZVpAw11pw_cIusJySdA&s=19

    "Russia says Yevgeny Prigozhin was on a plane that crashed on a flight from Moscow to St Petersburg. All passengers and crew, are dead.

    Wagner-linked channels say Russian air defense *shot down the plane* – the same private jet Prigozhin regularly uses."

    But who knows.
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    tlg86 said:

    Well that's Everton fucked.

    https://twitter.com/SkySportsNews/status/1694427438804021757

    Could they break Derby's record?

    Will they complete the season?
    Yes.
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    RattersRatters Posts: 903
    Nothing like shooting a plane out of the sky as a message for any Russian leadership thinking of crossing Putin.
  • Options

    Well that's Everton fucked.

    https://twitter.com/SkySportsNews/status/1694427438804021757

    Could they break Derby's record?

    Who gets the stadium?
    Nobody.

    Although they do get a £100 million loan from MSP for the stadium.
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,446
    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    Timely reminder that for Corbyn fans, the most important measure of popularity is with the core vote.

    Let's see a similar poll for leader popularity among Boston and Skegness Tory voters. Not going to be Sunak is it?
    Can't do B+S, but...

    📊Net rating with London *Conservative* voters:

    🔵 Susan Hall +37
    🔵 Rishi Sunak +3
    🔴 Keir Starmer -42
    ⚪️ Jeremy Corbyn -62
    🔴 Sadiq Khan -70

    Via @YouGov, 9-14 August 2023


    https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1694415560686088407
    London Tories hate Khan even more than Corbyn now, some achievement for him!
    People always hate someone with power more.
  • Options

    Omnium said:

    Hopefully not he will offer working people Zero change.
    Labour tax policy?
    Same as the blue Tories AFAIK
    BJO = Green Tory!
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,418
    Ratters said:

    Nothing like shooting a plane out of the sky as a message for any Russian leadership thinking of crossing Putin.

    Or as a message that you're a bunch of out-and-out gangsters, rather like the Kray twins but with less style.
  • Options
    In other news, I saw Oppenheimer with my brother and mum at the BFI IMAX in London this afternoon. We all felt was rather good, I have to say!
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,688
    ..
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,382
    Ratters said:

    Nothing like shooting a plane out of the sky as a message for any Russian leadership thinking of crossing Putin.

    It provided a window of opportunity?
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,264
    ohnotnow said:

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1694396008321482950?t=uRSZVpAw11pw_cIusJySdA&s=19

    "Russia says Yevgeny Prigozhin was on a plane that crashed on a flight from Moscow to St Petersburg. All passengers and crew, are dead.

    Wagner-linked channels say Russian air defense *shot down the plane* – the same private jet Prigozhin regularly uses."

    But who knows.

    Oh
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,184
    ydoethur said:

    Ratters said:

    Nothing like shooting a plane out of the sky as a message for any Russian leadership thinking of crossing Putin.

    It provided a window of opportunity?
    It certainly seems to put pay to the theory that all the hoo ha over the mutiny was a put-up job by Prigozhin and Putin. Unless the whole thing is an elaborate cover for Prigozhin to get radical cosmetic surgery and retire to enjoy the fleshpots of the West.
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    Ratters said:

    Nothing like shooting a plane out of the sky as a message for any Russian leadership thinking of crossing Putin.

    Looks like they totally missed yesterday, hitting the moon instead!
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,252
    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,382

    Ratters said:

    Nothing like shooting a plane out of the sky as a message for any Russian leadership thinking of crossing Putin.

    Looks like they totally missed yesterday, hitting the moon instead!
    Well, today an arse found himself exposed.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,404
    Interesting for betting on Islington North constituency result, where 72% of voters are either Labour or Green...
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    ydoethur said:

    Ratters said:

    Nothing like shooting a plane out of the sky as a message for any Russian leadership thinking of crossing Putin.

    It provided a window of opportunity?
    It certainly seems to put pay to the theory that all the hoo ha over the mutiny was a put-up job by Prigozhin and Putin. Unless the whole thing is an elaborate cover for Prigozhin to get radical cosmetic surgery and retire to enjoy the fleshpots of the West.
    There are two things we have learned about Russia from its Special Military Operation

    1. You should never believe anything it says until it is clearly corroborated by a more reliable source.

    2. It is incompetent

    So for the moment I await confirmation from elsewhere of who was on the plane, and if there has been some dastardly plot involved, it has probably gone wrong.
  • Options

    In other news, I saw Oppenheimer with my brother and mum at the BFI IMAX in London this afternoon. We all felt was rather good, I have to say!

    Does it have a happy ending?
  • Options
    Chris said:

    Ratters said:

    Nothing like shooting a plane out of the sky as a message for any Russian leadership thinking of crossing Putin.

    Or as a message that you're a bunch of out-and-out gangsters, rather like the Kray twins but with less style.
    Oi, wotchit.

    Ronnie and Reggie were very nice to their Mum. But Vladimir wasn't.
  • Options

    In other news, I saw Oppenheimer with my brother and mum at the BFI IMAX in London this afternoon. We all felt was rather good, I have to say!

    Does it have a happy ending?
    Sort of!
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,559
    edited August 2023

    ydoethur said:

    Ratters said:

    Nothing like shooting a plane out of the sky as a message for any Russian leadership thinking of crossing Putin.

    It provided a window of opportunity?
    It certainly seems to put pay to the theory that all the hoo ha over the mutiny was a put-up job by Prigozhin and Putin.
    I could never really buy that theory. Sure it all petered out, but it hardly painted Putin in a very good light, with him calling someone a traitor as their forces went along the motorway, then announcing it was all fine later. However they span it that's weak looking. Granted, it's pretty baffling what Prigozhin was after with it all, but a put up job seemed weird.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,418

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I don't have much faith these days in the electorate, but I don't believe they're crazy enough to come close to electing her in preference to Sadiq Khan.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,191
    One of the pro-Wagner channels is quoting Prigozhin: “It’s better to die a hero than live as a ****”
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,418

    Chris said:

    Ratters said:

    Nothing like shooting a plane out of the sky as a message for any Russian leadership thinking of crossing Putin.

    Or as a message that you're a bunch of out-and-out gangsters, rather like the Kray twins but with less style.
    Oi, wotchit.

    Ronnie and Reggie were very nice to their Mum. But Vladimir wasn't.
    Arthur Mullard: 'You knew the Krays, didn't you?'

    Daniel Farson: 'Yes. I rather liked them. After all, they only killed their own kind.'

    Arthur Mullard: 'Yuss. 'uman beings.'
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    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,738
    Given housing crisis/soaring rents, is anyone else curious as to why Labour haven't made a bigger thing of short-term lets (Airbnb, for example)?

    It would be a be an easy way to target 'commercial' landlords, would pick up votes from people who are struggling with rent/mortgages, and people like me who are constantly disturbed by noisy guests. It is also a cheap and easy compared to more substantive, and therefore controversial, solutions like building new homes or taxing empty bedrooms.

    Argument against - a niche issue? Big one in Edinburgh, but we are tourist central.
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,548
    Hot scumbag on scumbag action in Russia, eh.

    Hell of a lapse of common sense by Prigozhin when he could’ve been living it up in some Bosch-esque compound in a failing African state somewhere.

    Speaking of which, Wagner’s influence in many African countries has been considerable. There will be ramifications.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,404
    edited August 2023

    In other news, I saw Oppenheimer with my brother and mum at the BFI IMAX in London this afternoon. We all felt was rather good, I have to say!

    Yes, I thought it was memorable. But even though I totally sympathise with the victims of McCarthyism, I thought the lengthy passages about committee hearings a bit long - yes, certainly unfair, but "X was unfair to Y in the 1950s" seems of limited interest in 2023. But the underlying theme resonates just the same.
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    FffsFffs Posts: 50

    One of the pro-Wagner channels is quoting Prigozhin: “It’s better to die a hero than live as a ****”

    A noble sentiment, but I think he might have just died a ****
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,559

    One of the pro-Wagner channels is quoting Prigozhin: “It’s better to die a hero than live as a ****”

    Well he rather missed his mark on that one.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,148

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,074
    Eabhal said:

    Given housing crisis/soaring rents, is anyone else curious as to why Labour haven't made a bigger thing of short-term lets (Airbnb, for example)?

    It would be a be an easy way to target 'commercial' landlords, would pick up votes from people who are struggling with rent/mortgages, and people like me who are constantly disturbed by noisy guests. It is also a cheap and easy compared to more substantive, and therefore controversial, solutions like building new homes or taxing empty bedrooms.

    Argument against - a niche issue? Big one in Edinburgh, but we are tourist central.

    But Labour do it in Edinburgh, albeit as a minority Labour admin, already. Or are trying to. Not sure of detailed origin of policy. But it's presumably related to SNP/etc Government policy on things like protecting renters and not allowing them to be thrown out for Festival time, which for Slab and SKS would mean SNP Baaad under their respective versions of the Bain Principle.

    My view of the Edinburgh Festival and its Fringe went down even more, to about minus 11, a few years ago whem some luvvies whined they couldn't get comfortable short term accommodation any more because the landlords weren't allowed to evict at short notice.
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    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,813
    Andy_JS said:

    Just heard the news. Pretty stupid to get on that plane.

    He wasn't the cleverest.
    Once he started the mutiny, it was only going to end in his death or Putin's. He backed down, so it's his death he signed.

    Even if you believe that his family was threatened to get him to back down, that just shows his stupidity even more. He should've got them to safety before starting his little escapade.

    Prigozhin was an idiot. He deserved what he got. But lets hope the person who got him meets a similar end soon too.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,467
    When will we see the air accident investigation report ?
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    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,738
    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Given housing crisis/soaring rents, is anyone else curious as to why Labour haven't made a bigger thing of short-term lets (Airbnb, for example)?

    It would be a be an easy way to target 'commercial' landlords, would pick up votes from people who are struggling with rent/mortgages, and people like me who are constantly disturbed by noisy guests. It is also a cheap and easy compared to more substantive, and therefore controversial, solutions like building new homes or taxing empty bedrooms.

    Argument against - a niche issue? Big one in Edinburgh, but we are tourist central.

    But Labour do it in Edinburgh, albeit as a minority Labour admin, already. Or are trying to. Not sure of detailed origin of policy. But it's presumably related to SNP/etc Government policy on things like protecting renters and not allowing them to be thrown out for Festival time, which for Slab and SKS would mean SNP Baaad under their respective versions of the Bain Principle.

    My view of the Edinburgh Festival and its Fringe went down even more, to about minus 11, a few years ago whem some luvvies whined they couldn't get comfortable short term accommodation any more because the landlords weren't allowed to evict at short notice.
    I used to be on one of the 9 month contracts. Positive and negatives, but had a very relaxed landlord which helped. But yes, I think the policy has had a strange side effect of permanent airbnbs rather than seasonal ones - it's still worth it just for renting out in August.

    Anyway, my point is that it could be Labour's "jobs tax" (National Insurance in 2010) if rolled out UK-wide. A strong signal to the mortgage/renting class, while pissing off only the most of exploitative of landlords. Would also go down well in rural areas like Cornwall/Skye, but those aren't really target seats.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,074
    edited August 2023
    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Given housing crisis/soaring rents, is anyone else curious as to why Labour haven't made a bigger thing of short-term lets (Airbnb, for example)?

    It would be a be an easy way to target 'commercial' landlords, would pick up votes from people who are struggling with rent/mortgages, and people like me who are constantly disturbed by noisy guests. It is also a cheap and easy compared to more substantive, and therefore controversial, solutions like building new homes or taxing empty bedrooms.

    Argument against - a niche issue? Big one in Edinburgh, but we are tourist central.

    But Labour do it in Edinburgh, albeit as a minority Labour admin, already. Or are trying to. Not sure of detailed origin of policy. But it's presumably related to SNP/etc Government policy on things like protecting renters and not allowing them to be thrown out for Festival time, which for Slab and SKS would mean SNP Baaad under their respective versions of the Bain Principle.

    My view of the Edinburgh Festival and its Fringe went down even more, to about minus 11, a few years ago whem some luvvies whined they couldn't get comfortable short term accommodation any more because the landlords weren't allowed to evict at short notice.
    PS

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-66406418

    But let's not have the DT miss its fun and smearing, evne if it is a unionist party doing the running. .

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/nicola-sturgeon-holiday-lets-cost-edinburgh-festival-fringe/
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,467
    Cyclefree said:

    Darren Jones, Chair of the Business Select Committee, has achieved more than Kemi Badenoch, Business Secretary and Kevin Hollinrake, Minister for Postal Affairs have.

    And he's not letting up the pressure on the Post Office Board either.

    If Labour win the next election I hope Starmer makes good use of him.



    Select Committee chairs tend to have more knowledge of their brief than most ministers.

    Not least because they have usually been in post longer - which is certainly true of this government and its revolving ministries.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,559
    edited August 2023
    Eabhal said:

    Given housing crisis/soaring rents, is anyone else curious as to why Labour haven't made a bigger thing of short-term lets (Airbnb, for example)?

    It would be a be an easy way to target 'commercial' landlords, would pick up votes from people who are struggling with rent/mortgages, and people like me who are constantly disturbed by noisy guests. It is also a cheap and easy compared to more substantive, and therefore controversial, solutions like building new homes or taxing empty bedrooms.

    Argument against - a niche issue? Big one in Edinburgh, but we are tourist central.

    I would guess it's because lots of voters love using airbnb, and Labour don't want to give the right-wing press/the Tories an easy target with a policy that would make it simple to present Labour as fun-haters coming for people's affordable domestic holidays.

    Hotels/B&Bs are generally pretty bad value in Britain, and the absence of any kitchen facilities makes the rest of the holiday more expensive, because it's harder to eat as cheaply. Airbnbs are a godsend for people on a budget.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,467

    Nigelb said:

    When will we see the air accident investigation report ?

    That was filed yesterday.
    I was impressed by how quickly they identified the bodies, too.
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    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,738
    edited August 2023

    Eabhal said:

    Given housing crisis/soaring rents, is anyone else curious as to why Labour haven't made a bigger thing of short-term lets (Airbnb, for example)?

    It would be a be an easy way to target 'commercial' landlords, would pick up votes from people who are struggling with rent/mortgages, and people like me who are constantly disturbed by noisy guests. It is also a cheap and easy compared to more substantive, and therefore controversial, solutions like building new homes or taxing empty bedrooms.

    Argument against - a niche issue? Big one in Edinburgh, but we are tourist central.

    I would guess it's because lots of voters love using airbnb, and Labour don't want to give the right-wing press/the Tories an easy target with a policy that would make it easy to present Labour as fun-haters coming for people's affordable domestic holidays.

    Hotels/B&Bs are generally pretty bad value in Britain, and the absence of any kitchen facilities makes the rest of the holiday more expensive, because it's harder to eat as cheaply. Airbnbs are a godsend for people on a budget.
    Good point. I suppose we are net positive tourists in Edinburgh, which is unusual.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,074
    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Given housing crisis/soaring rents, is anyone else curious as to why Labour haven't made a bigger thing of short-term lets (Airbnb, for example)?

    It would be a be an easy way to target 'commercial' landlords, would pick up votes from people who are struggling with rent/mortgages, and people like me who are constantly disturbed by noisy guests. It is also a cheap and easy compared to more substantive, and therefore controversial, solutions like building new homes or taxing empty bedrooms.

    Argument against - a niche issue? Big one in Edinburgh, but we are tourist central.

    But Labour do it in Edinburgh, albeit as a minority Labour admin, already. Or are trying to. Not sure of detailed origin of policy. But it's presumably related to SNP/etc Government policy on things like protecting renters and not allowing them to be thrown out for Festival time, which for Slab and SKS would mean SNP Baaad under their respective versions of the Bain Principle.

    My view of the Edinburgh Festival and its Fringe went down even more, to about minus 11, a few years ago whem some luvvies whined they couldn't get comfortable short term accommodation any more because the landlords weren't allowed to evict at short notice.
    I used to be on one of the 9 month contracts. Positive and negatives, but had a very relaxed landlord which helped. But yes, I think the policy has had a strange side effect of permanent airbnbs rather than seasonal ones - it's still worth it just for renting out in August.

    Anyway, my point is that it could be Labour's "jobs tax" (National Insurance in 2010) if rolled out UK-wide. A strong signal to the mortgage/renting class, while pissing off only the most of exploitative of landlords. Would also go down well in rural areas like Cornwall/Skye, but those aren't really target seats.
    The crackdown in airbnbs is allegedly causing a great reduction (see Times today or a day or two ago). Lots of slanted stuff and axe-grinding from the landlords. But **** them, is the mood, it seems. The resentment in Edinburgh is already huge what with the abuses of stag parties, airbnb, filth, noise and disruption, the rise in student numbers, and the commercial student barracks already popping up here and there, so I gather.

    As for other areas, it would presumably be purely optional for each council - analogous to the stuff on holiday homes being provided by the SNP, Llafur and the "Conservative" Party in London. If there is no problem, the councils are less likely to activate the powers - and if there is a problem, there are votes in activating them, so I can't quite see the issue.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,467
    Another small piece of karma.

    The list of killed passengers, now published, includes not only Prigozhin and Utkin/Wagner, but also Valery Chekalov, the feared head of security for Prigozhin who, among other duties over the years, surveilled, harassed and attacked journalists who dared investigate his boss.
    https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1694442299319562749

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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,252

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,467
    Most cheerful mugshot of the day.
    https://twitter.com/JayShams/status/1694452409664204898

    Rudy couldn't even crack a smile for his.
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    Tories in London gutted that ULEZ was a Johnson idea
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,074
    Re the mood in Edinburgh, where depopulation for the sake of airbnbs is an issue:

    Irsvine Welsh a year or so back:

    ‘In places like our capital – a global tourist attraction – the people living there are increasingly irrelevant in a city being increasingly redesigned to attract tourists, wealthy students, businesses and housing developers. The people who bring income are paramount, and our modern culture of cheap Airbnb accommodation, landlordism and commercial development constantly feeds the dominant narrative telling us that so-called “legacy citizens” are unnecessary, even a hindrance, to the city’s progress.'

    https://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/people/irvine-welsh-ian-rankin-and-alexander-mccall-smith-join-forces-3521951
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,252
    Cyclefree said:

    Darren Jones, Chair of the Business Select Committee, has achieved more than Kemi Badenoch, Business Secretary and Kevin Hollinrake, Minister for Postal Affairs have.

    And he's not letting up the pressure on the Post Office Board either.

    If Labour win the next election I hope Starmer makes good use of him.




    It's good to have MPs like this of whatever party.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,101

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    She only has the slimmest of slim hopes, namely if the Tories unleash their secret weapon. Jeremy Corbyn.
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    Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,841
    Carnyx said:

    Re the mood in Edinburgh, where depopulation for the sake of airbnbs is an issue:

    Irsvine Welsh a year or so back:

    ‘In places like our capital – a global tourist attraction – the people living there are increasingly irrelevant in a city being increasingly redesigned to attract tourists, wealthy students, businesses and housing developers. The people who bring income are paramount, and our modern culture of cheap Airbnb accommodation, landlordism and commercial development constantly feeds the dominant narrative telling us that so-called “legacy citizens” are unnecessary, even a hindrance, to the city’s progress.'

    https://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/people/irvine-welsh-ian-rankin-and-alexander-mccall-smith-join-forces-3521951

    For further information see Venice.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,074

    Carnyx said:

    Re the mood in Edinburgh, where depopulation for the sake of airbnbs is an issue:

    Irsvine Welsh a year or so back:

    ‘In places like our capital – a global tourist attraction – the people living there are increasingly irrelevant in a city being increasingly redesigned to attract tourists, wealthy students, businesses and housing developers. The people who bring income are paramount, and our modern culture of cheap Airbnb accommodation, landlordism and commercial development constantly feeds the dominant narrative telling us that so-called “legacy citizens” are unnecessary, even a hindrance, to the city’s progress.'

    https://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/people/irvine-welsh-ian-rankin-and-alexander-mccall-smith-join-forces-3521951

    For further information see Venice.
    Presumably further down the line? (Never been there.)
This discussion has been closed.