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Most GOP voters would support Trump even if he’s convicted – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Darren Jones, Chair of the Business Select Committee, has achieved more than Kemi Badenoch, Business Secretary and Kevin Hollinrake, Minister for Postal Affairs have.

    And he's not letting up the pressure on the Post Office Board either.

    If Labour win the next election I hope Starmer makes good use of him.



    Select Committee chairs tend to have more knowledge of their brief than most ministers.

    Not least because they have usually been in post longer - which is certainly true of this government and its revolving ministries.
    That's letting Badenoch and Hollinrake off lightly. The UK's worst miscarriage of justice ever should demand their attention,
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,101
    Is Starmer standing as London Mayoral candidate? It's getting to be a crowded field.
  • Options
    Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,841

    Andy_JS said:

    Just heard the news. Pretty stupid to get on that plane.

    He wasn't the cleverest.
    Once he started the mutiny, it was only going to end in his death or Putin's. He backed down, so it's his death he signed.

    Even if you believe that his family was threatened to get him to back down, that just shows his stupidity even more. He should've got them to safety before starting his little escapade.

    Prigozhin was an idiot. He deserved what he got. But lets hope the person who got him meets a similar end soon too.
    If the West are on the ball (which I doubt) they'll find a way to take control of the Wagner Group before it disintegrates. It could be a useful asset in a number of conflicts and, in the end, money talks.
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    Tories in London gutted that ULEZ was a Johnson idea

    "Who is this Johnson of whom you speak? Never heard of him."

    Coming soon to a Conservative billboard near you.
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    Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,841
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Re the mood in Edinburgh, where depopulation for the sake of airbnbs is an issue:

    Irsvine Welsh a year or so back:

    ‘In places like our capital – a global tourist attraction – the people living there are increasingly irrelevant in a city being increasingly redesigned to attract tourists, wealthy students, businesses and housing developers. The people who bring income are paramount, and our modern culture of cheap Airbnb accommodation, landlordism and commercial development constantly feeds the dominant narrative telling us that so-called “legacy citizens” are unnecessary, even a hindrance, to the city’s progress.'

    https://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/people/irvine-welsh-ian-rankin-and-alexander-mccall-smith-join-forces-3521951

    For further information see Venice.
    Presumably further down the line? (Never been there.)
    Nice hotels, nice restaurants, nice galleries, nice museums, nice gondola rides. Anyone who looks and sounds like a local lives on the mainland and goes home at night.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,384
    Carnyx said:

    Re the mood in Edinburgh, where depopulation for the sake of airbnbs is an issue:

    Irsvine Welsh a year or so back:

    ‘In places like our capital – a global tourist attraction – the people living there are increasingly irrelevant in a city being increasingly redesigned to attract tourists, wealthy students, businesses and housing developers. The people who bring income are paramount, and our modern culture of cheap Airbnb accommodation, landlordism and commercial development constantly feeds the dominant narrative telling us that so-called “legacy citizens” are unnecessary, even a hindrance, to the city’s progress.'

    https://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/people/irvine-welsh-ian-rankin-and-alexander-mccall-smith-join-forces-3521951

    Complaints about "housing developers" tell you what these people are aiming for. A sort of state-controlled housing sector where workers get taxed to house non-workers like arts students.
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    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,738

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    It depends on which way the LD transfers will go?
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,147
    Eabhal said:

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    It depends on which way the LD transfers will go?
    Isn't it FPTP now, courtesy of Johnson?
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    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    She only has the slimmest of slim hopes, namely if the Tories unleash their secret weapon. Jeremy Corbyn.
    Worth putting the figures together for all of London;

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2023/08/22/khan-unpopular-london-while-tory-mayoral-candidate

    A new YouGov survey of Londoners finds that Sadiq Khan’s net popularity stands at -12, with 40% having a favourable view of the mayor and 52% an unfavourable one...

    New Conservative mayoral candidate Susan Hall is still unknown to most Londoners (57%). One in five have a positive view of her, while 21% have a negative view...

    One in three Londoners (33%) have a favourable view of Jeremy Corbyn, and 55% an unfavourable one.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,147

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    Hahaha
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,252
    .

    Eabhal said:

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    It depends on which way the LD transfers will go?
    Isn't it FPTP now, courtesy of Johnson?
    Yep.

    If Khan's vote splinters Lab/Green/Indy (Corbyn?) and the Tories stick together, with some floating voters/anti-Khan types coming over on top, then it could happen.
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    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,738

    Eabhal said:

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    It depends on which way the LD transfers will go?
    Isn't it FPTP now, courtesy of Johnson?
    * It will depend on tactical voting?

    (woops - but the LD share looks like it could get squeezed. Are the LDs in London the green types or the anti-LTN types?)
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,634

    Andy_JS said:

    Just heard the news. Pretty stupid to get on that plane.

    He wasn't the cleverest.
    Once he started the mutiny, it was only going to end in his death or Putin's. He backed down, so it's his death he signed.

    Even if you believe that his family was threatened to get him to back down, that just shows his stupidity even more. He should've got them to safety before starting his little escapade.

    Prigozhin was an idiot. He deserved what he got. But lets hope the person who got him meets a similar end soon too.
    Agree. Hopefully this will eventually cause more problems for Putin than he expects.
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    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,935
    Eabhal said:

    Given housing crisis/soaring rents, is anyone else curious as to why Labour haven't made a bigger thing of short-term lets (Airbnb, for example)?

    It would be a be an easy way to target 'commercial' landlords, would pick up votes from people who are struggling with rent/mortgages, and people like me who are constantly disturbed by noisy guests. It is also a cheap and easy compared to more substantive, and therefore controversial, solutions like building new homes or taxing empty bedrooms.

    Argument against - a niche issue? Big one in Edinburgh, but we are tourist central.

    That's a tricky one. Lots of Labour voters, particularly the young, use Airbnb. And some of the older ones: we visited Edinburgh recently, and the decent hotels were so ridiculously expensive that we stayed in an Airbnb in the New Town. A lovely flat, £110 a night.
    Be reassured: we were very quiet.
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    One of the pro-Wagner channels is quoting Prigozhin: “It’s better to die a hero than live as a ****”

    Reminds me of someone.

    "I have something to say. Its better to burn out than to fade away."
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-bOKsOveYD0

    There seems to be a similarity.

    Rest in hell.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,380
    There's a vacancy for a chef now I guess.

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    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,935
    edited August 2023
    Cyclefree said:

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Darren Jones, Chair of the Business Select Committee, has achieved more than Kemi Badenoch, Business Secretary and Kevin Hollinrake, Minister for Postal Affairs have.

    And he's not letting up the pressure on the Post Office Board either.

    If Labour win the next election I hope Starmer makes good use of him.



    Select Committee chairs tend to have more knowledge of their brief than most ministers.

    Not least because they have usually been in post longer - which is certainly true of this government and its revolving ministries.
    That's letting Badenoch and Hollinrake off lightly. The UK's worst miscarriage of justice ever should demand their attention,
    I don't know if you ever watch Select Committee hearings, but Darren Jones is indeed excellent. His questioning of witnesses manages to be rigorous, insightful, and direct. while remaining impeccably courteous.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,380

    Anton Gerashchenko
    @Gerashchenko_en
    ·
    11m
    "Many discussions of what Wagner will do in this situation. We'll say one thing - we're starting off. Expect us!" - reported announcement of Wagner PMC.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,634
    "Voting in Zimbabwe general election delayed by lack of ballot papers
    Most urban polling stations in Harare and Bulawayo, where opposition claims it has strong support, open four hours late"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/23/voting-in-zimbabwe-general-election-delayed-by-lack-of-ballot-papers
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,418

    .

    Eabhal said:

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    It depends on which way the LD transfers will go?
    Isn't it FPTP now, courtesy of Johnson?
    Yep.

    If Khan's vote splinters Lab/Green/Indy (Corbyn?) and the Tories stick together, with some floating voters/anti-Khan types coming over on top, then it could happen.
    What on earth makes you think the change to FPTP would splinter the Khan vote? Obviously FPTP tends to consolidate minor party support between one of the main two candidates, not to splinter support for the main candidates.

    The question you should be asking is which way the minor party supporters will break if forced to choose between Khan and Hall. I'd say Green and LD will go overwhelmingly for Khan, while the various Loonies will go for Hall.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,380
    “You come at the king, you best not miss.”

    Omar
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,184

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    PB's lefties must feel a bit unnerved by Safety with Susan, or they wouldn't have been fuming so much when she was photographed being nice to someone's dog.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,634
    edited August 2023
    Chris said:

    .

    Eabhal said:

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    It depends on which way the LD transfers will go?
    Isn't it FPTP now, courtesy of Johnson?
    Yep.

    If Khan's vote splinters Lab/Green/Indy (Corbyn?) and the Tories stick together, with some floating voters/anti-Khan types coming over on top, then it could happen.
    What on earth makes you think the change to FPTP would splinter the Khan vote? Obviously FPTP tends to consolidate minor party support between one of the main two candidates, not to splinter support for the main candidates.

    The question you should be asking is which way the minor party supporters will break if forced to choose between Khan and Hall. I'd say Green and LD will go overwhelmingly for Khan, while the various Loonies will go for Hall.
    We're probably less likely to see Green and LD supporters voting tactically for a Labour candidate who's been in power for so long, as opposed to either a new Labour candidate or when trying to oust a Tory candidate.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,380
    "Wednesday’s fast-moving developments in Russia suggested that the end had come, in different ways, for two men who had proved pivotal over the past year to Russia’s war effort. If Mr. Prigozhin is confirmed to have been killed and General Surovikin remains sidelined from the invasion, questions are sure to be raised over whether President Vladimir V. Putin can sustain his fight without two of his most effective — and most brutal — military leaders."

    NY Times
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,548

    “You come at the king, you best not miss.”

    Omar

    “Just a gangster, I suppose”

    Avon Barksdale
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,559

    "Wednesday’s fast-moving developments in Russia suggested that the end had come, in different ways, for two men who had proved pivotal over the past year to Russia’s war effort. If Mr. Prigozhin is confirmed to have been killed and General Surovikin remains sidelined from the invasion, questions are sure to be raised over whether President Vladimir V. Putin can sustain his fight without two of his most effective — and most brutal — military leaders."

    NY Times

    He waited until today to take that action, he presumably thinks he can now hence doing it, but hopefully he is wrong.
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    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,935

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    PB's lefties must feel a bit unnerved by Safety with Susan, or they wouldn't have been fuming so much when she was photographed being nice to someone's dog.
    Writing as a PB leftie, I'm entirely relaxed about the Tories' mayoral candidate. A splendid choice.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,559

    Eabhal said:

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    It depends on which way the LD transfers will go?
    Isn't it FPTP now, courtesy of Johnson?
    Claimed to be a manifesto committment, although they may regret making that argument given the statement in the manifesto was rather loosely talking about 'supporting' FPTP, not specifying changing voting systems on a whim for certain types of election. I wonder what other parties could decide with such looseness if they wanted.

    We will continue to support the First Past the Post system of voting, as it allows voters to kick out politicians who don’t deliver, both locally and nationally.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,147

    "Wednesday’s fast-moving developments in Russia suggested that the end had come, in different ways, for two men who had proved pivotal over the past year to Russia’s war effort. If Mr. Prigozhin is confirmed to have been killed and General Surovikin remains sidelined from the invasion, questions are sure to be raised over whether President Vladimir V. Putin can sustain his fight without two of his most effective — and most brutal — military leaders."

    NY Times

    Surovikin is presumably doing his best to keep away from windows.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,559

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    PB's lefties must feel a bit unnerved by Safety with Susan, or they wouldn't have been fuming so much when she was photographed being nice to someone's dog.
    Right wingers must be unnerved by Jeremy Corbyn, that's why they attack him so much. Sound familiar?

    Yes, it's sometimes true, parties need to attack and undermine effective opponents too, but oftentimes if they attack an opponent it's just because that's what you do.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,559
    Cyclefree said:

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Darren Jones, Chair of the Business Select Committee, has achieved more than Kemi Badenoch, Business Secretary and Kevin Hollinrake, Minister for Postal Affairs have.

    And he's not letting up the pressure on the Post Office Board either.

    If Labour win the next election I hope Starmer makes good use of him.



    Select Committee chairs tend to have more knowledge of their brief than most ministers.

    Not least because they have usually been in post longer - which is certainly true of this government and its revolving ministries.
    That's letting Badenoch and Hollinrake off lightly. The UK's worst miscarriage of justice ever should demand their attention,
    Seems like an easy area for government to get on a popular bandwagon, if they have been more effective earlier, yet they seem bizarrely passive and uncaring even as each fresh revelation just makes the Post Office even more unsympathetic and an easy target.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,919
    Andy_JS said:

    Chris said:

    .

    Eabhal said:

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    It depends on which way the LD transfers will go?
    Isn't it FPTP now, courtesy of Johnson?
    Yep.

    If Khan's vote splinters Lab/Green/Indy (Corbyn?) and the Tories stick together, with some floating voters/anti-Khan types coming over on top, then it could happen.
    What on earth makes you think the change to FPTP would splinter the Khan vote? Obviously FPTP tends to consolidate minor party support between one of the main two candidates, not to splinter support for the main candidates.

    The question you should be asking is which way the minor party supporters will break if forced to choose between Khan and Hall. I'd say Green and LD will go overwhelmingly for Khan, while the various Loonies will go for Hall.
    We're probably less likely to see Green and LD supporters voting tactically for a Labour candidate who's been in power for so long, as opposed to either a new Labour candidate or when trying to oust a Tory candidate.
    Really - your choice is Khan or Hall and any Green / LD vote is a risk that Hall could get in.

    That by itself is going to ensure a lot of left leaning Green / LD voters hold their nose and vote for Khan....
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,380

    "Wednesday’s fast-moving developments in Russia suggested that the end had come, in different ways, for two men who had proved pivotal over the past year to Russia’s war effort. If Mr. Prigozhin is confirmed to have been killed and General Surovikin remains sidelined from the invasion, questions are sure to be raised over whether President Vladimir V. Putin can sustain his fight without two of his most effective — and most brutal — military leaders."

    NY Times

    Surovikin is presumably doing his best to keep away from windows.
    I don't know why anyone in Russia dares to keep windows frankly.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,147
    eek said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Chris said:

    .

    Eabhal said:

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    It depends on which way the LD transfers will go?
    Isn't it FPTP now, courtesy of Johnson?
    Yep.

    If Khan's vote splinters Lab/Green/Indy (Corbyn?) and the Tories stick together, with some floating voters/anti-Khan types coming over on top, then it could happen.
    What on earth makes you think the change to FPTP would splinter the Khan vote? Obviously FPTP tends to consolidate minor party support between one of the main two candidates, not to splinter support for the main candidates.

    The question you should be asking is which way the minor party supporters will break if forced to choose between Khan and Hall. I'd say Green and LD will go overwhelmingly for Khan, while the various Loonies will go for Hall.
    We're probably less likely to see Green and LD supporters voting tactically for a Labour candidate who's been in power for so long, as opposed to either a new Labour candidate or when trying to oust a Tory candidate.
    Really - your choice is Khan or Hall and any Green / LD vote is a risk that Hall could get in.

    That by itself is going to ensure a lot of left leaning Green / LD voters hold their nose and vote for Khan....
    I'm guessing that the ULEZ extension will be fish & chip paper by May next year. I could be wrong, of course.
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    kle4 said:

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    PB's lefties must feel a bit unnerved by Safety with Susan, or they wouldn't have been fuming so much when she was photographed being nice to someone's dog.
    Right wingers must be unnerved by Jeremy Corbyn, that's why they attack him so much. Sound familiar?

    Yes, it's sometimes true, parties need to attack and undermine effective opponents too, but oftentimes if they attack an opponent it's just because that's what you do.
    Different ways of interpreting "unnerving". There's the fear of an opponent who might beat you in a competition. But there's also "bloody hell, X could be elected to office and that will be a car crash."

    Corbyn was in that second category, and Hall (who does not give off "I heart LDN" vibes) looks that way as well.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,559
    viewcode said:
    I like the url 'hopefuls to make their case' as I read it as 'hopeful to make their case'. I'm sure the host will do their best but if they aren't talking about Trump every 15 seconds it'll be a miracle.

    They should try to refer to him just as 'other candidate' to piss him off.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,559

    kle4 said:

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    PB's lefties must feel a bit unnerved by Safety with Susan, or they wouldn't have been fuming so much when she was photographed being nice to someone's dog.
    Right wingers must be unnerved by Jeremy Corbyn, that's why they attack him so much. Sound familiar?

    Yes, it's sometimes true, parties need to attack and undermine effective opponents too, but oftentimes if they attack an opponent it's just because that's what you do.
    Different ways of interpreting "unnerving". There's the fear of an opponent who might beat you in a competition. But there's also "bloody hell, X could be elected to office and that will be a car crash."

    Corbyn was in that second category, and Hall (who does not give off "I heart LDN" vibes) looks that way as well.
    I mean, how much harm could a mayor do?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,147
    Just watched a very moving documentary on Dmitry Muratov on C4 'The Price of Truth'. We recorded it a few days ago but it's presumably availably on catch-up.

    Well worth watching, Muratov's bravery and humanity is awe-inspiring.
  • Options

    Chris said:

    Ratters said:

    Nothing like shooting a plane out of the sky as a message for any Russian leadership thinking of crossing Putin.

    Or as a message that you're a bunch of out-and-out gangsters, rather like the Kray twins but with less style.
    Oi, wotchit.

    Ronnie and Reggie were very nice to their Mum. But Vladimir wasn't.
    Whatever did Владимир Владимирович have against Mrs Kray?
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,559

    "Wednesday’s fast-moving developments in Russia suggested that the end had come, in different ways, for two men who had proved pivotal over the past year to Russia’s war effort. If Mr. Prigozhin is confirmed to have been killed and General Surovikin remains sidelined from the invasion, questions are sure to be raised over whether President Vladimir V. Putin can sustain his fight without two of his most effective — and most brutal — military leaders."

    NY Times

    Surovikin is presumably doing his best to keep away from windows.
    I don't know why anyone in Russia dares to keep windows frankly.
    I guess it depends on whether you think you are more likely to be doing the pushing, rather than being pushed.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,380
    Pjotr Sauer
    @PjotrSauer
    Still no word from Zakharova, Peskov, Volodin, Medvedev and other top Russian officials
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,252
    Chris said:

    .

    Eabhal said:

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    It depends on which way the LD transfers will go?
    Isn't it FPTP now, courtesy of Johnson?
    Yep.

    If Khan's vote splinters Lab/Green/Indy (Corbyn?) and the Tories stick together, with some floating voters/anti-Khan types coming over on top, then it could happen.
    What on earth makes you think the change to FPTP would splinter the Khan vote? Obviously FPTP tends to consolidate minor party support between one of the main two candidates, not to splinter support for the main candidates.

    The question you should be asking is which way the minor party supporters will break if forced to choose between Khan and Hall. I'd say Green and LD will go overwhelmingly for Khan, while the various Loonies will go for Hall.
    I didn't say the change to FPTP would split the Khan vote. I said if Khan's vote splinters it could create a path for the Conservative candidate to come through.

    He's not popular, and the appetite to keep a Conservative mayor out, through him, might simply not be there. No Government is at stake here.

    And, so, if Corbyn stands as an independent or the Greens get traction it well might splinter.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,380

    "Wednesday’s fast-moving developments in Russia suggested that the end had come, in different ways, for two men who had proved pivotal over the past year to Russia’s war effort. If Mr. Prigozhin is confirmed to have been killed and General Surovikin remains sidelined from the invasion, questions are sure to be raised over whether President Vladimir V. Putin can sustain his fight without two of his most effective — and most brutal — military leaders."

    NY Times

    Surovikin is presumably doing his best to keep away from windows.
    I don't know why anyone in Russia dares to keep windows frankly.
    I guess it depends on whether you think you are more likely to be doing the pushing, rather than being pushed.
    Putin's art is that no one ever truly knows the answer to that question.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,252
    eek said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Chris said:

    .

    Eabhal said:

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    It depends on which way the LD transfers will go?
    Isn't it FPTP now, courtesy of Johnson?
    Yep.

    If Khan's vote splinters Lab/Green/Indy (Corbyn?) and the Tories stick together, with some floating voters/anti-Khan types coming over on top, then it could happen.
    What on earth makes you think the change to FPTP would splinter the Khan vote? Obviously FPTP tends to consolidate minor party support between one of the main two candidates, not to splinter support for the main candidates.

    The question you should be asking is which way the minor party supporters will break if forced to choose between Khan and Hall. I'd say Green and LD will go overwhelmingly for Khan, while the various Loonies will go for Hall.
    We're probably less likely to see Green and LD supporters voting tactically for a Labour candidate who's been in power for so long, as opposed to either a new Labour candidate or when trying to oust a Tory candidate.
    Really - your choice is Khan or Hall and any Green / LD vote is a risk that Hall could get in.

    That by itself is going to ensure a lot of left leaning Green / LD voters hold their nose and vote for Khan....
    Or they might be convinced that a vote for Khan is a risk that Khan could get in, and prefer a protest vote where they don't have to vote Tory.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,252

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    PB's lefties must feel a bit unnerved by Safety with Susan, or they wouldn't have been fuming so much when she was photographed being nice to someone's dog.
    PB lefties hate it when they dream is challenged, so they all crawl out of the woodwork and start defensively liking each others posts.

    It's very telling.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,384

    Chris said:

    .

    Eabhal said:

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    It depends on which way the LD transfers will go?
    Isn't it FPTP now, courtesy of Johnson?
    Yep.

    If Khan's vote splinters Lab/Green/Indy (Corbyn?) and the Tories stick together, with some floating voters/anti-Khan types coming over on top, then it could happen.
    What on earth makes you think the change to FPTP would splinter the Khan vote? Obviously FPTP tends to consolidate minor party support between one of the main two candidates, not to splinter support for the main candidates.

    The question you should be asking is which way the minor party supporters will break if forced to choose between Khan and Hall. I'd say Green and LD will go overwhelmingly for Khan, while the various Loonies will go for Hall.
    I didn't say the change to FPTP would split the Khan vote. I said if Khan's vote splinters it could create a path for the Conservative candidate to come through.

    He's not popular, and the appetite to keep a Conservative mayor out, through him, might simply not be there. No Government is at stake here.

    And, so, if Corbyn stands as an independent or the Greens get traction it well might splinter.
    That is true. However, a lot of things have to happen. And there are clear threats. There will be opinion polling, and tactical voting will follow. Likely 10%+ of LD-Green types of voters could be tactically squeezed if there are polls showing Hall and Corbyn in the running.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,634
    "Modern Europe was born on the battlefield
    The Hundred Years War is our chronicle and crucible
    By Jonathan Sumption"

    https://unherd.com/2023/08/modern-europe-was-born-on-the-battlefield/
  • Options

    Chris said:

    .

    Eabhal said:

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    It depends on which way the LD transfers will go?
    Isn't it FPTP now, courtesy of Johnson?
    Yep.

    If Khan's vote splinters Lab/Green/Indy (Corbyn?) and the Tories stick together, with some floating voters/anti-Khan types coming over on top, then it could happen.
    What on earth makes you think the change to FPTP would splinter the Khan vote? Obviously FPTP tends to consolidate minor party support between one of the main two candidates, not to splinter support for the main candidates.

    The question you should be asking is which way the minor party supporters will break if forced to choose between Khan and Hall. I'd say Green and LD will go overwhelmingly for Khan, while the various Loonies will go for Hall.
    I didn't say the change to FPTP would split the Khan vote. I said if Khan's vote splinters it could create a path for the Conservative candidate to come through.

    He's not popular, and the appetite to keep a Conservative mayor out, through him, might simply not be there. No Government is at stake here.

    And, so, if Corbyn stands as an independent or the Greens get traction it well might splinter.
    Polling so far is here;

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_London_mayoral_election

    Even if Corbyn decides to stand (and if push comes to shove, I can't see him self-expelling like that), Khan is still ahead.

    Plus, every Labour communication will include a variant on "it's a two horse race". Are horses ULEZ compliant?

  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,384
    I don't think it's a coincidence that the Greens had a revival during Corbyn time. Some of their voters are notionally left-of-Labour. But even during Corbyn time? Perhaps we overestimate the share of the population that is perennially underemployed and on Twitter all day. We know lots of Green voters recently were alienated Conservatives who liked the inoffensive Green brand and the localism. It is not hard to imagine something similar applied to a shard of alienated Labour voters.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,046
    edited August 2023
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,384
    Andy_JS said:

    "Modern Europe was born on the battlefield
    The Hundred Years War is our chronicle and crucible
    By Jonathan Sumption"

    https://unherd.com/2023/08/modern-europe-was-born-on-the-battlefield/

    I feel the same narrative is true of a lot of times in history, like the Industrial Revolution, the Thirty Years' War, the Reformation, and so on. Perhaps it was a more gradual process.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,384

    Chris said:

    .

    Eabhal said:

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    It depends on which way the LD transfers will go?
    Isn't it FPTP now, courtesy of Johnson?
    Yep.

    If Khan's vote splinters Lab/Green/Indy (Corbyn?) and the Tories stick together, with some floating voters/anti-Khan types coming over on top, then it could happen.
    What on earth makes you think the change to FPTP would splinter the Khan vote? Obviously FPTP tends to consolidate minor party support between one of the main two candidates, not to splinter support for the main candidates.

    The question you should be asking is which way the minor party supporters will break if forced to choose between Khan and Hall. I'd say Green and LD will go overwhelmingly for Khan, while the various Loonies will go for Hall.
    I didn't say the change to FPTP would split the Khan vote. I said if Khan's vote splinters it could create a path for the Conservative candidate to come through.

    He's not popular, and the appetite to keep a Conservative mayor out, through him, might simply not be there. No Government is at stake here.

    And, so, if Corbyn stands as an independent or the Greens get traction it well might splinter.
    Polling so far is here;

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_London_mayoral_election

    Even if Corbyn decides to stand (and if push comes to shove, I can't see him self-expelling like that), Khan is still ahead.

    Plus, every Labour communication will include a variant on "it's a two horse race". Are horses ULEZ compliant?

    Interesting page. The polling puts Green-LD at a combined 25% - mainly LD!? Won't happen.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,634
    Carnyx said:

    Re the mood in Edinburgh, where depopulation for the sake of airbnbs is an issue:

    Irsvine Welsh a year or so back:

    ‘In places like our capital – a global tourist attraction – the people living there are increasingly irrelevant in a city being increasingly redesigned to attract tourists, wealthy students, businesses and housing developers. The people who bring income are paramount, and our modern culture of cheap Airbnb accommodation, landlordism and commercial development constantly feeds the dominant narrative telling us that so-called “legacy citizens” are unnecessary, even a hindrance, to the city’s progress.'

    https://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/people/irvine-welsh-ian-rankin-and-alexander-mccall-smith-join-forces-3521951

    There's a slight problem here. What's the difference between a "legacy citizen" of a city like Edinburgh and, say, a "legacy citizen" of a country like England or Scotland?
  • Options
    TresTres Posts: 2,349

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    Londoners aren't going to elect a mayor who wants to shut down the Notting Hill Carnival
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,559
    EPG said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Modern Europe was born on the battlefield
    The Hundred Years War is our chronicle and crucible
    By Jonathan Sumption"

    https://unherd.com/2023/08/modern-europe-was-born-on-the-battlefield/

    I feel the same narrative is true of a lot of times in history, like the Industrial Revolution, the Thirty Years' War, the Reformation, and so on. Perhaps it was a more gradual process.
    Many eras could be chosen for such a description. I cannot imagine why the author of a multi volume history of the Hundred Years War with the fifth just about to come out would be penning articles about how important a period it was.

    Actually I am glad to see this article mention the fifth is coming out, I've read two of the others and own the other two, so was going to need to get the firth at some point.
  • Options

    Chris said:

    .

    Eabhal said:

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    It depends on which way the LD transfers will go?
    Isn't it FPTP now, courtesy of Johnson?
    Yep.

    If Khan's vote splinters Lab/Green/Indy (Corbyn?) and the Tories stick together, with some floating voters/anti-Khan types coming over on top, then it could happen.
    What on earth makes you think the change to FPTP would splinter the Khan vote? Obviously FPTP tends to consolidate minor party support between one of the main two candidates, not to splinter support for the main candidates.

    The question you should be asking is which way the minor party supporters will break if forced to choose between Khan and Hall. I'd say Green and LD will go overwhelmingly for Khan, while the various Loonies will go for Hall.
    I didn't say the change to FPTP would split the Khan vote. I said if Khan's vote splinters it could create a path for the Conservative candidate to come through.

    He's not popular, and the appetite to keep a Conservative mayor out, through him, might simply not be there. No Government is at stake here.

    And, so, if Corbyn stands as an independent or the Greens get traction it well might splinter.
    Polling so far is here;

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_London_mayoral_election

    Even if Corbyn decides to stand (and if push comes to shove, I can't see him self-expelling like that), Khan is still ahead.

    Plus, every Labour communication will include a variant on "it's a two horse race". Are horses ULEZ compliant?

    Surely the real threat - and one I see far more credible than Corbyn - is if Lutfur Rahman decides to run for Mayor on the Aspire ticket,

    Given what he did in Tower Hamlets, it is easy to see Rahman taking a large chunk of the Bangladeshi / Pakistani ethnic heritage vote which has traditionally formed a bedrock of Khan's vote in the capital. Given FPTP he may even have a chance if the Conservatives add votes in the outer London areas and Rahman comes through the middle.

    Maybe I have missed something but that seems to be the most likely way Khan loses.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,252
    EPG said:

    Chris said:

    .

    Eabhal said:

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    It depends on which way the LD transfers will go?
    Isn't it FPTP now, courtesy of Johnson?
    Yep.

    If Khan's vote splinters Lab/Green/Indy (Corbyn?) and the Tories stick together, with some floating voters/anti-Khan types coming over on top, then it could happen.
    What on earth makes you think the change to FPTP would splinter the Khan vote? Obviously FPTP tends to consolidate minor party support between one of the main two candidates, not to splinter support for the main candidates.

    The question you should be asking is which way the minor party supporters will break if forced to choose between Khan and Hall. I'd say Green and LD will go overwhelmingly for Khan, while the various Loonies will go for Hall.
    I didn't say the change to FPTP would split the Khan vote. I said if Khan's vote splinters it could create a path for the Conservative candidate to come through.

    He's not popular, and the appetite to keep a Conservative mayor out, through him, might simply not be there. No Government is at stake here.

    And, so, if Corbyn stands as an independent or the Greens get traction it well might splinter.
    That is true. However, a lot of things have to happen. And there are clear threats. There will be opinion polling, and tactical voting will follow. Likely 10%+ of LD-Green types of voters could be tactically squeezed if there are polls showing Hall and Corbyn in the running.
    The point is the Labour voters poll earlier upthread which showed that Khan has a higher unfavourability rating than Hall.

    That does not a good recipe for tactical voting make.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,252

    Chris said:

    .

    Eabhal said:

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    It depends on which way the LD transfers will go?
    Isn't it FPTP now, courtesy of Johnson?
    Yep.

    If Khan's vote splinters Lab/Green/Indy (Corbyn?) and the Tories stick together, with some floating voters/anti-Khan types coming over on top, then it could happen.
    What on earth makes you think the change to FPTP would splinter the Khan vote? Obviously FPTP tends to consolidate minor party support between one of the main two candidates, not to splinter support for the main candidates.

    The question you should be asking is which way the minor party supporters will break if forced to choose between Khan and Hall. I'd say Green and LD will go overwhelmingly for Khan, while the various Loonies will go for Hall.
    I didn't say the change to FPTP would split the Khan vote. I said if Khan's vote splinters it could create a path for the Conservative candidate to come through.

    He's not popular, and the appetite to keep a Conservative mayor out, through him, might simply not be there. No Government is at stake here.

    And, so, if Corbyn stands as an independent or the Greens get traction it well might splinter.
    Polling so far is here;

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_London_mayoral_election

    Even if Corbyn decides to stand (and if push comes to shove, I can't see him self-expelling like that), Khan is still ahead.

    Plus, every Labour communication will include a variant on "it's a two horse race". Are horses ULEZ compliant?

    So a Labour lead of barely 4% if Corbyn stands.

    Bloody close.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,451

    EPG said:

    Chris said:

    .

    Eabhal said:

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    It depends on which way the LD transfers will go?
    Isn't it FPTP now, courtesy of Johnson?
    Yep.

    If Khan's vote splinters Lab/Green/Indy (Corbyn?) and the Tories stick together, with some floating voters/anti-Khan types coming over on top, then it could happen.
    What on earth makes you think the change to FPTP would splinter the Khan vote? Obviously FPTP tends to consolidate minor party support between one of the main two candidates, not to splinter support for the main candidates.

    The question you should be asking is which way the minor party supporters will break if forced to choose between Khan and Hall. I'd say Green and LD will go overwhelmingly for Khan, while the various Loonies will go for Hall.
    I didn't say the change to FPTP would split the Khan vote. I said if Khan's vote splinters it could create a path for the Conservative candidate to come through.

    He's not popular, and the appetite to keep a Conservative mayor out, through him, might simply not be there. No Government is at stake here.

    And, so, if Corbyn stands as an independent or the Greens get traction it well might splinter.
    That is true. However, a lot of things have to happen. And there are clear threats. There will be opinion polling, and tactical voting will follow. Likely 10%+ of LD-Green types of voters could be tactically squeezed if there are polls showing Hall and Corbyn in the running.
    The point is the Labour voters poll earlier upthread which showed that Khan has a higher unfavourability rating than Hall.

    That does not a good recipe for tactical voting make.
    Many don’t know much about her . Not sure Trump loving nutjob will go down well with most Londoner’s once they get to know the horrid woman more .
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,559

    Chris said:

    .

    Eabhal said:

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    It depends on which way the LD transfers will go?
    Isn't it FPTP now, courtesy of Johnson?
    Yep.

    If Khan's vote splinters Lab/Green/Indy (Corbyn?) and the Tories stick together, with some floating voters/anti-Khan types coming over on top, then it could happen.
    What on earth makes you think the change to FPTP would splinter the Khan vote? Obviously FPTP tends to consolidate minor party support between one of the main two candidates, not to splinter support for the main candidates.

    The question you should be asking is which way the minor party supporters will break if forced to choose between Khan and Hall. I'd say Green and LD will go overwhelmingly for Khan, while the various Loonies will go for Hall.
    I didn't say the change to FPTP would split the Khan vote. I said if Khan's vote splinters it could create a path for the Conservative candidate to come through.

    He's not popular, and the appetite to keep a Conservative mayor out, through him, might simply not be there. No Government is at stake here.

    And, so, if Corbyn stands as an independent or the Greens get traction it well might splinter.
    Polling so far is here;

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_London_mayoral_election

    Even if Corbyn decides to stand (and if push comes to shove, I can't see him self-expelling like that), Khan is still ahead.

    Plus, every Labour communication will include a variant on "it's a two horse race". Are horses ULEZ compliant?

    Surely the real threat - and one I see far more credible than Corbyn - is if Lutfur Rahman decides to run for Mayor on the Aspire ticket,

    Given what he did in Tower Hamlets, it is easy to see Rahman taking a large chunk of the Bangladeshi / Pakistani ethnic heritage vote which has traditionally formed a bedrock of Khan's vote in the capital. Given FPTP he may even have a chance if the Conservatives add votes in the outer London areas and Rahman comes through the middle.

    Maybe I have missed something but that seems to be the most likely way Khan loses.
    It's pretty depressing that someone guilty of corrupt or illegal practices in elections like Rahman can be easily re-elected after serving out his ban. I mean, the very fact bans are not permanent means the intent is they can stand again and the voters can make the same mistake, but it's still sad.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,688
    2023-08-22 (Central Time US)
    2023-08-23 (BST UK)
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,965
    Ghedebrav said:

    Hot scumbag on scumbag action in Russia, eh.

    Hell of a lapse of common sense by Prigozhin when he could’ve been living it up in some Bosch-esque compound in a failing African state somewhere.

    Speaking of which, Wagner’s influence in many African countries has been considerable. There will be ramifications.

    How sure are we that it was Prigozhin in that plane? From the little I've seen, all bodies were so badly burned that they will only be identified through DNA evidence and one was missing a head. Prigozhin was on the passenger list, but...
    Not that it matters, I suppose. Whether it's a real death or a faked death, it amounts to the same for the world. if he suddenly pops up alive and well in Kazakhstan it renders any fakery pointless. He's either dead or has to keep his head down indefinitely.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,688
    EPG said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Modern Europe was born on the battlefield
    The Hundred Years War is our chronicle and crucible
    By Jonathan Sumption"

    https://unherd.com/2023/08/modern-europe-was-born-on-the-battlefield/

    I feel the same narrative is true of a lot of times in history, like the Industrial Revolution, the Thirty Years' War, the Reformation, and so on. Perhaps it was a more gradual process.
    I don't think Sumption is right. The 30yrs War gave us Westphalian sovereignty, the Franco-Prussian Wars gave us Germany, the American Civil War gave us people vs machine guns, the Napoleonic wars gave us total war, the Boer Wars gave us manoeuvre warfare and concentration camps, WW1 gave us tank and air warfare, WW2 gave us the atomic bomb. All those give you the 20th century. In the 21st we had the GWOT wars and in the 2020s we have drones and manpads.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,559
    Cookie said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Hot scumbag on scumbag action in Russia, eh.

    Hell of a lapse of common sense by Prigozhin when he could’ve been living it up in some Bosch-esque compound in a failing African state somewhere.

    Speaking of which, Wagner’s influence in many African countries has been considerable. There will be ramifications.

    How sure are we that it was Prigozhin in that plane? From the little I've seen, all bodies were so badly burned that they will only be identified through DNA evidence and one was missing a head. Prigozhin was on the passenger list, but...
    Not that it matters, I suppose. Whether it's a real death or a faked death, it amounts to the same for the world. if he suddenly pops up alive and well in Kazakhstan it renders any fakery pointless. He's either dead or has to keep his head down indefinitely.
    If he's slipped the net thenhis emergence would be a massive embarrassment to Putin surely? Not exactly 'lead a rebellion' embarrassing, but trying and failing to kill someone has to be damaging for a dictator.

    And if Putin was in on the fake, what benefit would he get from that if Prigozhin cannot even do anything and show his face again?
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,384

    Chris said:

    .

    Eabhal said:

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    It depends on which way the LD transfers will go?
    Isn't it FPTP now, courtesy of Johnson?
    Yep.

    If Khan's vote splinters Lab/Green/Indy (Corbyn?) and the Tories stick together, with some floating voters/anti-Khan types coming over on top, then it could happen.
    What on earth makes you think the change to FPTP would splinter the Khan vote? Obviously FPTP tends to consolidate minor party support between one of the main two candidates, not to splinter support for the main candidates.

    The question you should be asking is which way the minor party supporters will break if forced to choose between Khan and Hall. I'd say Green and LD will go overwhelmingly for Khan, while the various Loonies will go for Hall.
    I didn't say the change to FPTP would split the Khan vote. I said if Khan's vote splinters it could create a path for the Conservative candidate to come through.

    He's not popular, and the appetite to keep a Conservative mayor out, through him, might simply not be there. No Government is at stake here.

    And, so, if Corbyn stands as an independent or the Greens get traction it well might splinter.
    Polling so far is here;

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_London_mayoral_election

    Even if Corbyn decides to stand (and if push comes to shove, I can't see him self-expelling like that), Khan is still ahead.

    Plus, every Labour communication will include a variant on "it's a two horse race". Are horses ULEZ compliant?

    Surely the real threat - and one I see far more credible than Corbyn - is if Lutfur Rahman decides to run for Mayor on the Aspire ticket,

    Given what he did in Tower Hamlets, it is easy to see Rahman taking a large chunk of the Bangladeshi / Pakistani ethnic heritage vote which has traditionally formed a bedrock of Khan's vote in the capital. Given FPTP he may even have a chance if the Conservatives add votes in the outer London areas and Rahman comes through the middle.

    Maybe I have missed something but that seems to be the most likely way Khan loses.
    Something like 1% of Tower Hamlets is Pakistani-heritage. It's likely impossible to say whether Rahman attracts any more support in that community than among say Turks or the French.

    As for Khan, he came up from being MP for Tooting, which is ethnically mixed but relatively white/British for London and - crucially - a place with lots of household mobility, attracting professionals from lots of backgrounds, not an ethnic enclave situation like in Tower Hamlets, where Rahman can organise a party which is tantamount to exclusively Bangladeshi-heritage. So I would push back at the assumption that Khan's vote differs from the generic Labour vote in the capital post-Brexit.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,965
    kle4 said:

    Cookie said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Hot scumbag on scumbag action in Russia, eh.

    Hell of a lapse of common sense by Prigozhin when he could’ve been living it up in some Bosch-esque compound in a failing African state somewhere.

    Speaking of which, Wagner’s influence in many African countries has been considerable. There will be ramifications.

    How sure are we that it was Prigozhin in that plane? From the little I've seen, all bodies were so badly burned that they will only be identified through DNA evidence and one was missing a head. Prigozhin was on the passenger list, but...
    Not that it matters, I suppose. Whether it's a real death or a faked death, it amounts to the same for the world. if he suddenly pops up alive and well in Kazakhstan it renders any fakery pointless. He's either dead or has to keep his head down indefinitely.
    If he's slipped the net thenhis emergence would be a massive embarrassment to Putin surely? Not exactly 'lead a rebellion' embarrassing, but trying and failing to kill someone has to be damaging for a dictator.

    And if Putin was in on the fake, what benefit would he get from that if Prigozhin cannot even do anything and show his face again?
    No, I was wondering whether it was Prigozhin faking his own death. I don't think Putin's gone all sentimental about his old friends. But if you were a warlord with a price on your head it would be quite useful to appear dead.
    I was only speculating because the level of destruction of the bodies seemed surprising.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,384

    EPG said:

    Chris said:

    .

    Eabhal said:

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    It depends on which way the LD transfers will go?
    Isn't it FPTP now, courtesy of Johnson?
    Yep.

    If Khan's vote splinters Lab/Green/Indy (Corbyn?) and the Tories stick together, with some floating voters/anti-Khan types coming over on top, then it could happen.
    What on earth makes you think the change to FPTP would splinter the Khan vote? Obviously FPTP tends to consolidate minor party support between one of the main two candidates, not to splinter support for the main candidates.

    The question you should be asking is which way the minor party supporters will break if forced to choose between Khan and Hall. I'd say Green and LD will go overwhelmingly for Khan, while the various Loonies will go for Hall.
    I didn't say the change to FPTP would split the Khan vote. I said if Khan's vote splinters it could create a path for the Conservative candidate to come through.

    He's not popular, and the appetite to keep a Conservative mayor out, through him, might simply not be there. No Government is at stake here.

    And, so, if Corbyn stands as an independent or the Greens get traction it well might splinter.
    That is true. However, a lot of things have to happen. And there are clear threats. There will be opinion polling, and tactical voting will follow. Likely 10%+ of LD-Green types of voters could be tactically squeezed if there are polls showing Hall and Corbyn in the running.
    The point is the Labour voters poll earlier upthread which showed that Khan has a higher unfavourability rating than Hall.

    That does not a good recipe for tactical voting make.
    Because next to nobody knows Hall and the election is a year away.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,404
    edited August 2023



    Polling so far is here;

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_London_mayoral_election

    Even if Corbyn decides to stand (and if push comes to shove, I can't see him self-expelling like that), Khan is still ahead.

    Plus, every Labour communication will include a variant on "it's a two horse race". Are horses ULEZ compliant?

    I don't think Corbyn will stand for Mayor - on the whole, the left are OK with Khan and as the poll shows he wouldn't get far. But he mjight well stand in Islington N, and the poll showing him more liked than Starmer among London Labour voters suggests he'd have a fair chance of holding on - there will be non-Labour voters (especially Greens, but also others) who quite fancy having an independent gadfly MP, including some who wouldn't have wanted him as PM.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,511
    viewcode said:

    EPG said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Modern Europe was born on the battlefield
    The Hundred Years War is our chronicle and crucible
    By Jonathan Sumption"

    https://unherd.com/2023/08/modern-europe-was-born-on-the-battlefield/

    I feel the same narrative is true of a lot of times in history, like the Industrial Revolution, the Thirty Years' War, the Reformation, and so on. Perhaps it was a more gradual process.
    I don't think Sumption is right. The 30yrs War gave us Westphalian sovereignty, the Franco-Prussian Wars gave us Germany, the American Civil War gave us people vs machine guns, the Napoleonic wars gave us total war, the Boer Wars gave us manoeuvre warfare and concentration camps, WW1 gave us tank and air warfare, WW2 gave us the atomic bomb. All those give you the 20th century. In the 21st we had the GWOT wars and in the 2020s we have drones and manpads.
    Modern Europe *was* born on the battlefield, partly because it was at war most of the time but mostly because wars are, by their nature, the most disruptive events, socially, economically and politically and are both the product and generator of change.

    But not the Hundred Years War, which was too early and too isolated; that's an Anglocentric view.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,384
    If the theory is that Susan Hall wins by ending up in May 2024 with more net favourability among Labour voters than Sadiq Khan, I don't buy it!
  • Options
    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,600
    Republican debate tonight: 8-10 PM Central Time. (I''ll let others figure out what time that is in Britain.)

    (For the record: I don't plan to watch it, since I think these "debates" are lousy ways to judge candidates, especially with that many on stage at once.

    I would prefer to see them compete in reading and listening contests, if those could somehow be arranged, since those skills are more important to a president than speaking skills.)
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,559
    Random but interesting fact I've seen today - Lord Reed, President of the Supreme Court, assuming he does not retire early, will have led the Court for 11.5 years when he hangs up his robes, just over all the other Presidents of the Court put together.

    Aided by the mandatory retirement age having been extended 5 years, but still, should leave a mark on things.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,559

    viewcode said:

    EPG said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Modern Europe was born on the battlefield
    The Hundred Years War is our chronicle and crucible
    By Jonathan Sumption"

    https://unherd.com/2023/08/modern-europe-was-born-on-the-battlefield/

    I feel the same narrative is true of a lot of times in history, like the Industrial Revolution, the Thirty Years' War, the Reformation, and so on. Perhaps it was a more gradual process.
    I don't think Sumption is right. The 30yrs War gave us Westphalian sovereignty, the Franco-Prussian Wars gave us Germany, the American Civil War gave us people vs machine guns, the Napoleonic wars gave us total war, the Boer Wars gave us manoeuvre warfare and concentration camps, WW1 gave us tank and air warfare, WW2 gave us the atomic bomb. All those give you the 20th century. In the 21st we had the GWOT wars and in the 2020s we have drones and manpads.
    Modern Europe *was* born on the battlefield, partly because it was at war most of the time but mostly because wars are, by their nature, the most disruptive events, socially, economically and politically and are both the product and generator of change.

    But not the Hundred Years War, which was too early and too isolated; that's an Anglocentric view.
    Or the view of a man with a book on it out next week?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,191

    viewcode said:

    EPG said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Modern Europe was born on the battlefield
    The Hundred Years War is our chronicle and crucible
    By Jonathan Sumption"

    https://unherd.com/2023/08/modern-europe-was-born-on-the-battlefield/

    I feel the same narrative is true of a lot of times in history, like the Industrial Revolution, the Thirty Years' War, the Reformation, and so on. Perhaps it was a more gradual process.
    I don't think Sumption is right. The 30yrs War gave us Westphalian sovereignty, the Franco-Prussian Wars gave us Germany, the American Civil War gave us people vs machine guns, the Napoleonic wars gave us total war, the Boer Wars gave us manoeuvre warfare and concentration camps, WW1 gave us tank and air warfare, WW2 gave us the atomic bomb. All those give you the 20th century. In the 21st we had the GWOT wars and in the 2020s we have drones and manpads.
    Modern Europe *was* born on the battlefield, partly because it was at war most of the time but mostly because wars are, by their nature, the most disruptive events, socially, economically and politically and are both the product and generator of change.

    But not the Hundred Years War, which was too early and too isolated; that's an Anglocentric view.
    It's not that much of Anglocentric view if you consider that it was crucial to the emergence of France in its modern form, and that predermines much of the rest of European political geography.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,384
    I thought the biggest risk to Khan would be a general election later this year that put Starmer in as PM, changing the dynamic and inviting voters to take a free hit after the first half year. Looks unlikely to happen now.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,212

    Chris said:

    .

    Eabhal said:

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    It depends on which way the LD transfers will go?
    Isn't it FPTP now, courtesy of Johnson?
    Yep.

    If Khan's vote splinters Lab/Green/Indy (Corbyn?) and the Tories stick together, with some floating voters/anti-Khan types coming over on top, then it could happen.
    What on earth makes you think the change to FPTP would splinter the Khan vote? Obviously FPTP tends to consolidate minor party support between one of the main two candidates, not to splinter support for the main candidates.

    The question you should be asking is which way the minor party supporters will break if forced to choose between Khan and Hall. I'd say Green and LD will go overwhelmingly for Khan, while the various Loonies will go for Hall.
    I didn't say the change to FPTP would split the Khan vote. I said if Khan's vote splinters it could create a path for the Conservative candidate to come through.

    He's not popular, and the appetite to keep a Conservative mayor out, through him, might simply not be there. No Government is at stake here.

    And, so, if Corbyn stands as an independent or the Greens get traction it well might splinter.
    Polling so far is here;

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_London_mayoral_election

    Even if Corbyn decides to stand (and if push comes to shove, I can't see him self-expelling like that), Khan is still ahead.

    Plus, every Labour communication will include a variant on "it's a two horse race". Are horses ULEZ compliant?

    So a Labour lead of barely 4% if Corbyn stands.

    Bloody close.
    Yes in a FPTP election now Redfield has Khan 32% Hall 28% LD 10% Green 9% RefUK 8% Corbyn 7%.

    Whereas Khan is on 41% to 33% for Hall without Corbyn


    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/london-mayoral-election-voting-intention-10-12-june-2023/
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,559

    Chris said:

    .

    Eabhal said:

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    It depends on which way the LD transfers will go?
    Isn't it FPTP now, courtesy of Johnson?
    Yep.

    If Khan's vote splinters Lab/Green/Indy (Corbyn?) and the Tories stick together, with some floating voters/anti-Khan types coming over on top, then it could happen.
    What on earth makes you think the change to FPTP would splinter the Khan vote? Obviously FPTP tends to consolidate minor party support between one of the main two candidates, not to splinter support for the main candidates.

    The question you should be asking is which way the minor party supporters will break if forced to choose between Khan and Hall. I'd say Green and LD will go overwhelmingly for Khan, while the various Loonies will go for Hall.
    I didn't say the change to FPTP would split the Khan vote. I said if Khan's vote splinters it could create a path for the Conservative candidate to come through.

    He's not popular, and the appetite to keep a Conservative mayor out, through him, might simply not be there. No Government is at stake here.

    And, so, if Corbyn stands as an independent or the Greens get traction it well might splinter.
    Polling so far is here;

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_London_mayoral_election

    Even if Corbyn decides to stand (and if push comes to shove, I can't see him self-expelling like that), Khan is still ahead.

    Plus, every Labour communication will include a variant on "it's a two horse race". Are horses ULEZ compliant?

    So a Labour lead of barely 4% if Corbyn stands.

    Bloody close.
    I hope he goes for it. If he just sits and stays loyal to the party brand (not loyal in the sense of toeing the line, but despite the support he gets from fringe types he was never going to jump unless pushed) then Starmer may well win a victory from a calamitous position and his narrative will prevail about Corbyn's time and legacy.

    That may well still happen even if Corbyn wins the mayoralty, but at least then he has something substantive in electoral terms to hold onto. And if it fails but screws over the party he thinks betrayed him, a consolation prize.
  • Options
    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,600
    This WaPo headline is cautious: "Wagner’s Prigozhin listed as passenger of crashed plane in Russia that killed 10".
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,384
    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    .

    Eabhal said:

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    It depends on which way the LD transfers will go?
    Isn't it FPTP now, courtesy of Johnson?
    Yep.

    If Khan's vote splinters Lab/Green/Indy (Corbyn?) and the Tories stick together, with some floating voters/anti-Khan types coming over on top, then it could happen.
    What on earth makes you think the change to FPTP would splinter the Khan vote? Obviously FPTP tends to consolidate minor party support between one of the main two candidates, not to splinter support for the main candidates.

    The question you should be asking is which way the minor party supporters will break if forced to choose between Khan and Hall. I'd say Green and LD will go overwhelmingly for Khan, while the various Loonies will go for Hall.
    I didn't say the change to FPTP would split the Khan vote. I said if Khan's vote splinters it could create a path for the Conservative candidate to come through.

    He's not popular, and the appetite to keep a Conservative mayor out, through him, might simply not be there. No Government is at stake here.

    And, so, if Corbyn stands as an independent or the Greens get traction it well might splinter.
    Polling so far is here;

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_London_mayoral_election

    Even if Corbyn decides to stand (and if push comes to shove, I can't see him self-expelling like that), Khan is still ahead.

    Plus, every Labour communication will include a variant on "it's a two horse race". Are horses ULEZ compliant?

    So a Labour lead of barely 4% if Corbyn stands.

    Bloody close.
    Yes in a FPTP election now Redfield has Khan 32% Hall 28% LD 10% Green 9% RefUK 8% Corbyn 7%.

    Whereas Khan is on 41% to 33% for Hall without Corbyn


    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/london-mayoral-election-voting-intention-10-12-june-2023/
    My guess is the average voter does not yet know it is a FPTP election, and Labour will stage the mother of all bar-chart campaigns. I do not see a world where the LDs avoid getting squeezed to 5% or less, like they did even when there was a second-preference ballot.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,559
    EPG said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    .

    Eabhal said:

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    It depends on which way the LD transfers will go?
    Isn't it FPTP now, courtesy of Johnson?
    Yep.

    If Khan's vote splinters Lab/Green/Indy (Corbyn?) and the Tories stick together, with some floating voters/anti-Khan types coming over on top, then it could happen.
    What on earth makes you think the change to FPTP would splinter the Khan vote? Obviously FPTP tends to consolidate minor party support between one of the main two candidates, not to splinter support for the main candidates.

    The question you should be asking is which way the minor party supporters will break if forced to choose between Khan and Hall. I'd say Green and LD will go overwhelmingly for Khan, while the various Loonies will go for Hall.
    I didn't say the change to FPTP would split the Khan vote. I said if Khan's vote splinters it could create a path for the Conservative candidate to come through.

    He's not popular, and the appetite to keep a Conservative mayor out, through him, might simply not be there. No Government is at stake here.

    And, so, if Corbyn stands as an independent or the Greens get traction it well might splinter.
    Polling so far is here;

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_London_mayoral_election

    Even if Corbyn decides to stand (and if push comes to shove, I can't see him self-expelling like that), Khan is still ahead.

    Plus, every Labour communication will include a variant on "it's a two horse race". Are horses ULEZ compliant?

    So a Labour lead of barely 4% if Corbyn stands.

    Bloody close.
    Yes in a FPTP election now Redfield has Khan 32% Hall 28% LD 10% Green 9% RefUK 8% Corbyn 7%.

    Whereas Khan is on 41% to 33% for Hall without Corbyn


    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/london-mayoral-election-voting-intention-10-12-june-2023/
    My guess is the average voter does not yet know it is a FPTP election, and Labour will stage the mother of all bar-chart campaigns. I do not see a world where the LDs avoid getting squeezed to 5% or less, like they did even when there was a second-preference ballot.
    As you note they only scraped 4.4% last time even when there were transfers and a 1st preference LD vote could be a safe choice.

    Even assuming a more favourable environment for them this time I'd assume they barely crack that again unless Khan is predicted to win so easily people don't think it will matter.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,688

    viewcode said:

    EPG said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Modern Europe was born on the battlefield
    The Hundred Years War is our chronicle and crucible
    By Jonathan Sumption"

    https://unherd.com/2023/08/modern-europe-was-born-on-the-battlefield/

    I feel the same narrative is true of a lot of times in history, like the Industrial Revolution, the Thirty Years' War, the Reformation, and so on. Perhaps it was a more gradual process.
    I don't think Sumption is right. The 30yrs War gave us Westphalian sovereignty, the Franco-Prussian Wars gave us Germany, the American Civil War gave us people vs machine guns, the Napoleonic wars gave us total war, the Boer Wars gave us manoeuvre warfare and concentration camps, WW1 gave us tank and air warfare, WW2 gave us the atomic bomb. All those give you the 20th century. In the 21st we had the GWOT wars and in the 2020s we have drones and manpads.
    Modern Europe *was* born on the battlefield, partly because it was at war most of the time but mostly because wars are, by their nature, the most disruptive events, socially, economically and politically and are both the product and generator of change.

    But not the Hundred Years War, which was too early and too isolated; that's an Anglocentric view.
    It's not that much of Anglocentric view if you consider that it was crucial to the emergence of France in its modern form, and that predermines much of the rest of European political geography.
    Napoleon is pretty much the Mule of France: he came along, everything changed.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,559
    From a response to one of the Trump co-defendants I assume this is opposing lawyer talk for 'utter nonsense'.

    BREAKING: DA Willis has responded to Jeff CLARK's bid to transfer his charges to federal court, saying it's based on a "misread of the applicable statutes, a misapprehension of the binding caselaw, and a fundamental misunderstanding of criminal procedure.
    https://nitter.net/kyledcheney/status/1694418486498295970#m

    Clark seems to have been among the worst of the lot if the Smith indictment is any indication of his attempts to strongarm the DoJ into aiding the coup attempt.
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    MJWMJW Posts: 1,527
    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    .

    Eabhal said:

    I wonder if Susan Hall might have a path.

    She has good favourability with Tory voters and there are more Labour voters who rate Khan as unfavourable than her, with a lot of undecideds.

    Depends how she plays it but could be close.

    I admire your optimism in the face of all logic but I fear you have succumbed to severe wishcasting*.

    I put it alongside my (cough) left-field hunch that the Tories are about to be usurped in the two-party system by the Lib Dems.

    (*You will of course rightly enjoy a huge 'told you so' moment should an unlikely miracle occur.)
    I don't do wishcasting. I do betting. And that comment is off the polling posted earlier upthread.
    It depends on which way the LD transfers will go?
    Isn't it FPTP now, courtesy of Johnson?
    Yep.

    If Khan's vote splinters Lab/Green/Indy (Corbyn?) and the Tories stick together, with some floating voters/anti-Khan types coming over on top, then it could happen.
    What on earth makes you think the change to FPTP would splinter the Khan vote? Obviously FPTP tends to consolidate minor party support between one of the main two candidates, not to splinter support for the main candidates.

    The question you should be asking is which way the minor party supporters will break if forced to choose between Khan and Hall. I'd say Green and LD will go overwhelmingly for Khan, while the various Loonies will go for Hall.
    I didn't say the change to FPTP would split the Khan vote. I said if Khan's vote splinters it could create a path for the Conservative candidate to come through.

    He's not popular, and the appetite to keep a Conservative mayor out, through him, might simply not be there. No Government is at stake here.

    And, so, if Corbyn stands as an independent or the Greens get traction it well might splinter.
    Polling so far is here;

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_London_mayoral_election

    Even if Corbyn decides to stand (and if push comes to shove, I can't see him self-expelling like that), Khan is still ahead.

    Plus, every Labour communication will include a variant on "it's a two horse race". Are horses ULEZ compliant?

    So a Labour lead of barely 4% if Corbyn stands.

    Bloody close.
    I hope he goes for it. If he just sits and stays loyal to the party brand (not loyal in the sense of toeing the line, but despite the support he gets from fringe types he was never going to jump unless pushed) then Starmer may well win a victory from a calamitous position and his narrative will prevail about Corbyn's time and legacy.

    That may well still happen even if Corbyn wins the mayoralty, but at least then he has something substantive in electoral terms to hold onto. And if it fails but screws over the party he thinks betrayed him, a consolation prize.
    Not going to be a happy few months for London's Jewish communities if Corbyn stands. Very ugly in fact. Funny as it would be to see his vanity hit reality again, I don't think one should wish the kind of campaign his more fanatical supporters would wage against those who deeply objected to his prejudices and indulgence of extremism on anyone. It's been almost 4 years and fanatics still try and pile-on those who spoke out about antisemitism and his leadership at any opportunity.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,634
    Interesting question: why on earth aren't planes disembarked by aisle rather than row, when it would considerably speed up the process of leaving a plane?

    https://www.vox.com/2014/7/8/5877863/it-takes-forever-to-get-off-an-airplane-there-might-be-a-better-way

    "The way we get off airplanes makes absolutely no sense

    Using computer simulations, multiple groups of independent researchers have found that deboarding by aisle, rather than row, would cut deboarding times down significantly. In other words, you'd let all aisle passengers off first, then all middle seats, then all windows."
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,464
    Cyclefree said:

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Darren Jones, Chair of the Business Select Committee, has achieved more than Kemi Badenoch, Business Secretary and Kevin Hollinrake, Minister for Postal Affairs have.

    And he's not letting up the pressure on the Post Office Board either.

    If Labour win the next election I hope Starmer makes good use of him.



    Select Committee chairs tend to have more knowledge of their brief than most ministers.

    Not least because they have usually been in post longer - which is certainly true of this government and its revolving ministries.
    That's letting Badenoch and Hollinrake off lightly. The UK's worst miscarriage of justice ever should demand their attention,
    It was a general point - but it us an important one, as familiarity with a brief takes time.

    I don't excuse the lamentable set of ministers currently in office.
    And the example of Nick Gibb makes quite clear that time in a post on its own doesn't make a good minister.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,464
    It's a tough field, but the Unbelievable (in all senses) Demagogue crown goes to Ramaswamy, by a mile.
    https://twitter.com/JamesFallows/status/1694523105597669691
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,464
    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting question: why on earth aren't planes disembarked by aisle rather than row, when it would considerably speed up the process of leaving a plane?

    https://www.vox.com/2014/7/8/5877863/it-takes-forever-to-get-off-an-airplane-there-might-be-a-better-way

    "The way we get off airplanes makes absolutely no sense

    Using computer simulations, multiple groups of independent researchers have found that deboarding by aisle, rather than row, would cut deboarding times down significantly. In other words, you'd let all aisle passengers off first, then all middle seats, then all windows."

    For the very obvious reason that people don't do as they are told.
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    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting question: why on earth aren't planes disembarked by aisle rather than row, when it would considerably speed up the process of leaving a plane?

    https://www.vox.com/2014/7/8/5877863/it-takes-forever-to-get-off-an-airplane-there-might-be-a-better-way

    "The way we get off airplanes makes absolutely no sense

    Using computer simulations, multiple groups of independent researchers have found that deboarding by aisle, rather than row, would cut deboarding times down significantly. In other words, you'd let all aisle passengers off first, then all middle seats, then all windows."

    For the very obvious reason that people don't do as they are told.
    If you land at most of the smaller regional airports in India, the locals always undo their seatbelts as soon as the plane touches down!
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