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Biden now a 40% betting chance of winning WH2 – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • ydoethur said:

    A

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I don't understand the odds on the other three. You are literally betting on whether Biden or Trump will die in the next 18 months because that’s the only way one of those two isn't going to be POTUS at the end of Jan '24.

    It literally isn't.

    Either could be incapacitated - and Trump could conceivably be convicted, or so badly damaged by one or more of the ongoing criminal cases that the Republicans replace him.
    You might think the latter event impossible, but it isn't.
    Events

    1) Biden death from age related stuff. 80 years - 6% or so in the next year
    2) Trump death from age related stuff. 77 years - 5% or so in the next year

    P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

    = 0.06 + 0.05 - (0.06*0.05)

    = 0.11 - 0.003

    = 0.107

    10.7% probability than *one* of them keels over in the next year....

    Someone tell me I am wrong, please?
    Well, I definitely don't think this is one for sunglasses.
    B brackets :lol:
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028

    ydoethur said:

    A

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I don't understand the odds on the other three. You are literally betting on whether Biden or Trump will die in the next 18 months because that’s the only way one of those two isn't going to be POTUS at the end of Jan '24.

    It literally isn't.

    Either could be incapacitated - and Trump could conceivably be convicted, or so badly damaged by one or more of the ongoing criminal cases that the Republicans replace him.
    You might think the latter event impossible, but it isn't.
    Events

    1) Biden death from age related stuff. 80 years - 6% or so in the next year
    2) Trump death from age related stuff. 77 years - 5% or so in the next year

    P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

    = 0.06 + 0.05 - (0.06*0.05)

    = 0.11 - 0.003

    = 0.107

    10.7% probability than *one* of them keels over in the next year....

    Someone tell me I am wrong, please?
    Well, I definitely don't think this is one for sunglasses.
    B brackets :lol:
    Yes, I know. But it looks a bit odd B)
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,073
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Greetings from Irish Pub, Zhytomyr, Ukraine, where they have Guinness on tap - and we’ve just had a pint of the Irish, a pint of the local, and a bacon cheeseburger, for about £8 a head. Cheers! 🍻

    Strong goatse energy on the logo.
    Had to look that one up.

    Honest.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    edited August 2023
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    A

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I don't understand the odds on the other three. You are literally betting on whether Biden or Trump will die in the next 18 months because that’s the only way one of those two isn't going to be POTUS at the end of Jan '24.

    It literally isn't.

    Either could be incapacitated - and Trump could conceivably be convicted, or so badly damaged by one or more of the ongoing criminal cases that the Republicans replace him.
    You might think the latter event impossible, but it isn't.
    Events

    1) Biden death from age related stuff. 80 years - 6% or so in the next year
    2) Trump death from age related stuff. 77 years - 5% or so in the next year

    P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

    = 0.06 + 0.05 - (0.06*0.05)

    = 0.11 - 0.003

    = 0.107

    10.7% probability than *one* of them keels over in the next year....

    Someone tell me I am wrong, please?
    Well, I definitely don't think this is one for sunglasses.
    B brackets :lol:
    Yes, I know. But it looks a bit odd B)
    B) C)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,973

    HYUFD said:

    If Trump avoids conviction next year then he has an excellent chance of beating Biden, at least by winning the EC. Biden's approval rating currently is well under 50%.

    If Trump is convicted in any of his cases next year however Biden equally has an excellent chance of re election. Polls show even many Republicans would not vote for Trump again if convicted of criminal charges so either he loses the nomination or the RNC change the rules pre convention to replace him with another candidate, probably Pence or DeSantis, if Trump is convicted.

    Those 2 however would probably see Trump diehards stay home on polling day rather than vote for them or Biden while also being too hardline to have much appeal to suburban Independent swing voters who switched to Biden in 2020 after voting for Trump in 2016

    Why are you so keen to see Trump re-elected? Do you not care what he did on January 6? Are you aware of what he will do if he gets a second bite of the cherry? Do you want to witness the end of U.S. democracy? Do you want to see Europe destabilised by an emboldened Putin?

    The extreme right are not one nation Tories. They are not your friends!
    I didn't say anything about wanting Trump to be elected again but the fact of the matter is Biden currently has an approval rating of just 40.3% with US voters, which is not only below the 45% Obama was on at this stage of his presidency but even below the 41.2% Trump was on at this stage of his presidency.
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

    If Trump avoids criminal convictions next year then as I said he has a good chance of beating Biden and returning to the White House
  • ydoethur said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    We should absolutely compare ourselves with Canada etc.

    I would say there are different varieties of capitalism to compare ourselves against, and learn from. We can’t precisely replicate another model, but there are always useful things to learn.

    Rough ranking as follows:

    Switzerland
    USA
    Scandinavia (ex Norway)
    Germany/Austria
    Netherlands
    Canada/Australia/NZ
    South Korea
    France/Belgium
    *UK*
    Japan
    Spain/Portugal
    Italy
    New Europe (Czech, Poland, Baltics, maybe Hungary)

    Against this bundle, UK is middling and definitely bottom half.

    We are above France/Belgium and South Korea too and if you are unemployed or have a serious illness or injury you are far better off in the UK than US in terms of accessing state support and state healthcare if you are not a high earner who can afford private healthcare anyway.

    We also have a global city in London that only really NYC can rival
    We are a first rate city with a third rate country attached.
    Admirable though it is, I think it's going a bit far to call Lichfield first rate.
    I've been to Lichfield Trent Valley, but not Lichfield City (only passed through).
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,993
    ...
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Trump avoids conviction next year then he has an excellent chance of beating Biden, at least by winning the EC. Biden's approval rating currently is well under 50%.

    If Trump is convicted in any of his cases next year however Biden equally has an excellent chance of re election. Polls show even many Republicans would not vote for Trump again if convicted of criminal charges so either he loses the nomination or the RNC change the rules pre convention to replace him with another candidate, probably Pence or DeSantis, if Trump is convicted.

    Those 2 however would probably see Trump diehards stay home on polling day rather than vote for them or Biden while also being too hardline to have much appeal to suburban Independent swing voters who switched to Biden in 2020 after voting for Trump in 2016

    Why are you so keen to see Trump re-elected? Do you not care what he did on January 6? Are you aware of what he will do if he gets a second bite of the cherry? Do you want to witness the end of U.S. democracy? Do you want to see Europe destabilised by an emboldened Putin?

    The extreme right are not one nation Tories. They are not your friends!
    I didn't say anything about wanting Trump to be elected again but the fact of the matter is Biden currently has an approval rating of just 40.3% with US voters, which is not only below the 45% Obama was on at this stage of his presidency but even below the 41.2% Trump was on at this stage of his presidency.
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

    If Trump avoids criminal convictions next year then as I said he has a good chance of beating Biden and returning to the White House
    Conservative Central Office wound your spring too tight today!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Pulpstar said:

    The problem with "news" about Biden's possible stepping down is that it's utterly, utterly infested with the worst sort of wishcasting wish is actively misleading and unhelpful for punters.
    No market for a piece stating the likely truth that Biden will, in fact, probably stand. Far more for puff pieces hyping Newsom, Michelle Obama or whichever Democrat wannabe the journalist wants to promote.

    @Casino_Royale If he does die it'll be Harris.

    On the contrary, it's extremely helpful for punters.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    edited August 2023
    Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Greetings from Irish Pub, Zhytomyr, Ukraine, where they have Guinness on tap - and we’ve just had a pint of the Irish, a pint of the local, and a bacon cheeseburger, for about £8 a head. Cheers! 🍻

    Strong goatse energy on the logo.
    Had to look that one up.

    Honest.
    Hope you just looked at a wiki page, and not anything else!

    Goatse, is the reason that many of us were happy when Rickrolling came around.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028

    ydoethur said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    We should absolutely compare ourselves with Canada etc.

    I would say there are different varieties of capitalism to compare ourselves against, and learn from. We can’t precisely replicate another model, but there are always useful things to learn.

    Rough ranking as follows:

    Switzerland
    USA
    Scandinavia (ex Norway)
    Germany/Austria
    Netherlands
    Canada/Australia/NZ
    South Korea
    France/Belgium
    *UK*
    Japan
    Spain/Portugal
    Italy
    New Europe (Czech, Poland, Baltics, maybe Hungary)

    Against this bundle, UK is middling and definitely bottom half.

    We are above France/Belgium and South Korea too and if you are unemployed or have a serious illness or injury you are far better off in the UK than US in terms of accessing state support and state healthcare if you are not a high earner who can afford private healthcare anyway.

    We also have a global city in London that only really NYC can rival
    We are a first rate city with a third rate country attached.
    Admirable though it is, I think it's going a bit far to call Lichfield first rate.
    I've been to Lichfield Trent Valley, but not Lichfield City (only passed through).
    Interesting station.

    The rest of Lichfield is a must visit if you like old buildings and Victorian parks.

    However, if you don't - don't bother, as there's nothing else worth visiting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,973
    edited August 2023

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Trump avoids conviction next year then he has an excellent chance of beating Biden, at least by winning the EC. Biden's approval rating currently is well under 50%.

    If Trump is convicted in any of his cases next year however Biden equally has an excellent chance of re election. Polls show even many Republicans would not vote for Trump again if convicted of criminal charges so either he loses the nomination or the RNC change the rules pre convention to replace him with another candidate, probably Pence or DeSantis, if Trump is convicted.

    Those 2 however would probably see Trump diehards stay home on polling day rather than vote for them or Biden while also being too hardline to have much appeal to suburban Independent swing voters who switched to Biden in 2020 after voting for Trump in 2016

    Why are you so keen to see Trump re-elected? Do you not care what he did on January 6? Are you aware of what he will do if he gets a second bite of the cherry? Do you want to witness the end of U.S. democracy? Do you want to see Europe destabilised by an emboldened Putin?

    The extreme right are not one nation Tories. They are not your friends!
    I didn't say anything about wanting Trump to be elected again but the fact of the matter is Biden currently has an approval rating of just 40.3% with US voters, which is not only below the 45% Obama was on at this stage of his presidency but even below the 41.2% Trump was on at this stage of his presidency.
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

    If Trump avoids criminal convictions next year then as I said he has a good chance of beating Biden and returning to the White House
    Conservative Central Office wound your spring too tight today!
    As I have said before I would have voted for Hillary in 2016 and Biden in 2020 (the last Republican presidential candidate I would have voted for was Bush in 2000) but the UK is not the US is it.

    If the UK was a US state the Democrats would have won most votes in every presidential election here since 2000, we are basically just a North Eastern US state in culture but it is the Midwestern swing states that decide US elections
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855

    A

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I don't understand the odds on the other three. You are literally betting on whether Biden or Trump will die in the next 18 months because that’s the only way one of those two isn't going to be POTUS at the end of Jan '24.

    It literally isn't.

    Either could be incapacitated - and Trump could conceivably be convicted, or so badly damaged by one or more of the ongoing criminal cases that the Republicans replace him.
    You might think the latter event impossible, but it isn't.
    Events

    1) Biden death from age related stuff. 80 years - 6% or so in the next year
    2) Trump death from age related stuff. 77 years - 5% or so in the next year

    P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

    = 0.06 + 0.05 - (0.06*0.05)

    = 0.11 - 0.003

    = 0.107

    10.7% probability than *one* of them keels over in the next year....

    Someone tell me I am wrong, please?
    You are wrong, you are reading or as XOR
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,362
    You just have to watch an interview with Trump to realise that his age simply does not matter.

    There has been no obvious decline in his faculties and he retains all the weird energy he had before. Meanwhile, Biden...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    A

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I don't understand the odds on the other three. You are literally betting on whether Biden or Trump will die in the next 18 months because that’s the only way one of those two isn't going to be POTUS at the end of Jan '24.

    It literally isn't.

    Either could be incapacitated - and Trump could conceivably be convicted, or so badly damaged by one or more of the ongoing criminal cases that the Republicans replace him.
    You might think the latter event impossible, but it isn't.
    Events

    1) Biden death from age related stuff. 80 years - 6% or so in the next year
    2) Trump death from age related stuff. 77 years - 5% or so in the next year

    P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

    = 0.06 + 0.05 - (0.06*0.05)

    = 0.11 - 0.003

    = 0.107

    10.7% probability than *one* of them keels over in the next year....

    Someone tell me I am wrong, please?
    Well, I definitely don't think this is one for sunglasses.
    B brackets :lol:
    Yes, I know. But it looks a bit odd B)
    You saying that Trump keeling over *wouldn't* be a "Sunglasses in the pub beer garden" moment?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    A conviction would be no legal impediment to DJT, though it may have practical and political consequences. He just couldn't vote for himself because felons can't vote in Florida.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    A

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I don't understand the odds on the other three. You are literally betting on whether Biden or Trump will die in the next 18 months because that’s the only way one of those two isn't going to be POTUS at the end of Jan '24.

    It literally isn't.

    Either could be incapacitated - and Trump could conceivably be convicted, or so badly damaged by one or more of the ongoing criminal cases that the Republicans replace him.
    You might think the latter event impossible, but it isn't.
    Events

    1) Biden death from age related stuff. 80 years - 6% or so in the next year
    2) Trump death from age related stuff. 77 years - 5% or so in the next year

    P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

    = 0.06 + 0.05 - (0.06*0.05)

    = 0.11 - 0.003

    = 0.107

    10.7% probability than *one* of them keels over in the next year....

    Someone tell me I am wrong, please?
    Well, I definitely don't think this is one for sunglasses.
    B brackets :lol:
    Yes, I know. But it looks a bit odd B)
    You saying that Trump keeling over *wouldn't* be a "Sunglasses in the pub beer garden" moment?
    No, it would be ROFLMFAO moment.

    But there is no emoji that does justice to that.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598
    Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Greetings from Irish Pub, Zhytomyr, Ukraine, where they have Guinness on tap - and we’ve just had a pint of the Irish, a pint of the local, and a bacon cheeseburger, for about £8 a head. Cheers! 🍻

    Strong goatse energy on the logo.
    Had to look that one up.

    Honest.
    Me too, if that helps. "Unsavoury thing I learned on PB today".
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    Eabhal said:

    You just have to watch an interview with Trump to realise that his age simply does not matter.

    There has been no obvious decline in his faculties and he retains all the weird energy he had before. Meanwhile, Biden...

    Miklosvar said:

    A

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I don't understand the odds on the other three. You are literally betting on whether Biden or Trump will die in the next 18 months because that’s the only way one of those two isn't going to be POTUS at the end of Jan '24.

    It literally isn't.

    Either could be incapacitated - and Trump could conceivably be convicted, or so badly damaged by one or more of the ongoing criminal cases that the Republicans replace him.
    You might think the latter event impossible, but it isn't.
    Events

    1) Biden death from age related stuff. 80 years - 6% or so in the next year
    2) Trump death from age related stuff. 77 years - 5% or so in the next year

    P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

    = 0.06 + 0.05 - (0.06*0.05)

    = 0.11 - 0.003

    = 0.107

    10.7% probability than *one* of them keels over in the next year....

    Someone tell me I am wrong, please?
    You are wrong, you are reading or as XOR
    True.. hmmm - but that brings us back to 11% for one or both.

    Which seems rather high to me. Certainly something worth figuring into bets.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,973
    The next 26 parliamentary seats Conservative candidate applications now open for:


    Alyn and Deeside (Wales)
    Bridlington and The Wolds (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Bristol North West (South West)
    Bury South (North West)
    Clwyd North (Wales)
    Colchester (Eastern)
    Crawley (South East)
    Croydon East (London)
    Doncaster North (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Dorking and Horley (South East)
    Frome and East Somerset (South West)
    Glastonbury and Somerton (South West)
    Heywood and Middleton North (North West)
    Huntingdon (Eastern)
    Leeds East (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Leeds West and Pudsey (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Mid Cheshire (North West)
    North West Leicestershire (East Midlands)
    Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Richmond Park (London)
    Sittingbourne and Sheppey (South East)
    Southampton Itchen (South East)
    St Albans (Eastern)
    Wakefield and Rothwell (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Waveney Valley (Eastern)
    Wirral West (North West)
    https://conservativehome.com/2023/08/11/the-next-twenty-six-seats-opening-for-candidate-selections/
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    A

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I don't understand the odds on the other three. You are literally betting on whether Biden or Trump will die in the next 18 months because that’s the only way one of those two isn't going to be POTUS at the end of Jan '24.

    It literally isn't.

    Either could be incapacitated - and Trump could conceivably be convicted, or so badly damaged by one or more of the ongoing criminal cases that the Republicans replace him.
    You might think the latter event impossible, but it isn't.
    Events

    1) Biden death from age related stuff. 80 years - 6% or so in the next year
    2) Trump death from age related stuff. 77 years - 5% or so in the next year

    P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

    = 0.06 + 0.05 - (0.06*0.05)

    = 0.11 - 0.003

    = 0.107

    10.7% probability than *one* of them keels over in the next year....

    Someone tell me I am wrong, please?
    Well, I definitely don't think this is one for sunglasses.
    B brackets :lol:
    Yes, I know. But it looks a bit odd B)
    You saying that Trump keeling over *wouldn't* be a "Sunglasses in the pub beer garden" moment?
    No, it would be ROFLMFAO moment.

    But there is no emoji that does justice to that.
    I have a nasty feeling that whatever replaces him as the Republican nominee would be worse. As in wearing an "apparently sane person" suit. And thus able to get more and worse things done.

    On the upside they would probably be much easier to beat.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,993
    Eabhal said:

    You just have to watch an interview with Trump to realise that his age simply does not matter.

    There has been no obvious decline in his faculties and he retains all the weird energy he had before. Meanwhile, Biden...

    You must thus be implying Trump has been as mad as a March Hare for an awfully long time.

    I am more comfortable with a few minor senior Presidential moments each day than someone who should never be allowed to leave his padded cell.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028

    Eabhal said:

    You just have to watch an interview with Trump to realise that his age simply does not matter.

    There has been no obvious decline in his faculties and he retains all the weird energy he had before. Meanwhile, Biden...

    You must thus be implying Trump has been as mad as a March Hare for an awfully long time.
    Well, he has.

    Although that may be unfair to March hares.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411

    Eabhal said:

    You just have to watch an interview with Trump to realise that his age simply does not matter.

    There has been no obvious decline in his faculties and he retains all the weird energy he had before. Meanwhile, Biden...

    You must thus be implying Trump has been as mad as a March Hare for an awfully long time.

    I am more comfortable with a few minor senior Presidential moments each day than someone who should never be allowed to leave his padded cell.
    Biden's been doing the "senior" moments for much of his life. He seems to just make that kind of gaffe.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    How long before a populist strongman tries The El Salvador Method on a much bigger LatAm nation?


    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/7/could-el-salvadors-gang-crackdown-spread-across-latin-america

    https://www.economist.com/films/2023/07/21/inside-el-salvadors-war-on-crime

    More importantly and interestingly, how long before it is tried in an advanced western nation with spiraling crime and urban decay?

    The self-styled "cool dictator" has stratospheric popularity. People like the Singapore approach. Zero tolerance. String em up or bang em up.

    Within a decade we will see a version in the west, is my bet. Prime candidates: the USA, or Sweden. Perhaps Italy or France next
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,993
    HYUFD said:

    The next 26 parliamentary seats Conservative candidate applications now open for:


    Alyn and Deeside (Wales)
    Bridlington and The Wolds (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Bristol North West (South West)
    Bury South (North West)
    Clwyd North (Wales)
    Colchester (Eastern)
    Crawley (South East)
    Croydon East (London)
    Doncaster North (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Dorking and Horley (South East)
    Frome and East Somerset (South West)
    Glastonbury and Somerton (South West)
    Heywood and Middleton North (North West)
    Huntingdon (Eastern)
    Leeds East (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Leeds West and Pudsey (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Mid Cheshire (North West)
    North West Leicestershire (East Midlands)
    Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Richmond Park (London)
    Sittingbourne and Sheppey (South East)
    Southampton Itchen (South East)
    St Albans (Eastern)
    Wakefield and Rothwell (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Waveney Valley (Eastern)
    Wirral West (North West)
    https://conservativehome.com/2023/08/11/the-next-twenty-six-seats-opening-for-candidate-selections/

    Colchester, or St Albans followed by Huntingdon would be geographically quite handy for you I would have thought. Dorking and Horley could be another for you to eye up. Although do you have to have a dry run in Pontefract or Wakefield first?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    HYUFD said:

    The next 26 parliamentary seats Conservative candidate applications now open for:


    Alyn and Deeside (Wales)
    Bridlington and The Wolds (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Bristol North West (South West)
    Bury South (North West)
    Clwyd North (Wales)
    Colchester (Eastern)
    Crawley (South East)
    Croydon East (London)
    Doncaster North (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Dorking and Horley (South East)
    Frome and East Somerset (South West)
    Glastonbury and Somerton (South West)
    Heywood and Middleton North (North West)
    Huntingdon (Eastern)
    Leeds East (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Leeds West and Pudsey (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Mid Cheshire (North West)
    North West Leicestershire (East Midlands)
    Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Richmond Park (London)
    Sittingbourne and Sheppey (South East)
    Southampton Itchen (South East)
    St Albans (Eastern)
    Wakefield and Rothwell (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Waveney Valley (Eastern)
    Wirral West (North West)
    https://conservativehome.com/2023/08/11/the-next-twenty-six-seats-opening-for-candidate-selections/

    Are you going to go for one ?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,921
    edited August 2023

    Eabhal said:

    You just have to watch an interview with Trump to realise that his age simply does not matter.

    There has been no obvious decline in his faculties and he retains all the weird energy he had before. Meanwhile, Biden...

    You must thus be implying Trump has been as mad as a March Hare for an awfully long time.

    I am more comfortable with a few minor senior Presidential moments each day than someone who should never be allowed to leave his padded cell.
    Biden's been doing the "senior" moments for much of his life. He seems to just make that kind of gaffe.
    If they are made by left-wing Presidents like Biden they are sweet, senior moments, or just ignored altogether, and you're an ageist asshole for even noticing them. If they are made by right-wing Presidents like Reagan, George W Bush or Donald Trump they are evidence of lunacy, idiocy or just plain evil.

    The double standard is completely obvious - the same reason you never get statues of Republican Presidents in Western Europe (Lincoln excepted).
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,188
    edited August 2023

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    Legionella on the Barge. Lee?

    The full cruise ship experience.
    I see Cruella's gameplan here. Floating petri dishes could well reduce the numbers of asylum seekers significantly.
    Your inference ... not sure they are that organised. But there is also tuberculosis, presumably, given the news yesterday. Or is that too slow? Probably not if one gets a really virulent strain combined with poor food.
    Interesting to follow the fantasises of those who really dislike the current government.

    They really should just sink the boats like the Greeks, or pay the Libyan Coastguard to enslave the migrant. Like proper Europeans.
    Maybe unfair to blame the government for legionella in asylum seekers' accommodation, or for using barges as temporary accommodation. But as they go for cruel performative nonsense on migration they shouldn't expect their mostly justified critics to suddenly discover nuance, when they certainly don't have any.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028

    HYUFD said:

    The next 26 parliamentary seats Conservative candidate applications now open for:


    Alyn and Deeside (Wales)
    Bridlington and The Wolds (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Bristol North West (South West)
    Bury South (North West)
    Clwyd North (Wales)
    Colchester (Eastern)
    Crawley (South East)
    Croydon East (London)
    Doncaster North (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Dorking and Horley (South East)
    Frome and East Somerset (South West)
    Glastonbury and Somerton (South West)
    Heywood and Middleton North (North West)
    Huntingdon (Eastern)
    Leeds East (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Leeds West and Pudsey (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Mid Cheshire (North West)
    North West Leicestershire (East Midlands)
    Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Richmond Park (London)
    Sittingbourne and Sheppey (South East)
    Southampton Itchen (South East)
    St Albans (Eastern)
    Wakefield and Rothwell (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Waveney Valley (Eastern)
    Wirral West (North West)
    https://conservativehome.com/2023/08/11/the-next-twenty-six-seats-opening-for-candidate-selections/

    Colchester, or St Albans followed by Huntingdon would be geographically quite handy for you I would have thought. Dorking and Horley could be another for you to eye up. Although do you have to have a dry run in Pontefract or Wakefield first?
    Wakefield and Rothwell should be quite a tempting seat for a prospective Tory candidate fancying testing their mettle. It's been trending Tory for years and although there was some - ahem - embarrassment there recently with a certain Tory MP there's no reason that couldn't be reversed with patience and a willingness to work hard.

    Similarly, Alyn and Deeside might be tempting to a Tory who wants a seat they're not certain or even likely to win but could make a decent showing in.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,993
    Fishing said:

    Eabhal said:

    You just have to watch an interview with Trump to realise that his age simply does not matter.

    There has been no obvious decline in his faculties and he retains all the weird energy he had before. Meanwhile, Biden...

    You must thus be implying Trump has been as mad as a March Hare for an awfully long time.

    I am more comfortable with a few minor senior Presidential moments each day than someone who should never be allowed to leave his padded cell.
    Biden's been doing the "senior" moments for much of his life. He seems to just make that kind of gaffe.
    If they are made by left-wing Presidents like Biden they are sweet, senior moments, or just ignored altogether, and you're an ageist asshole for even noticing them. If they are made by right-wing Presidents like Reagan, George W Bush or Donald Trump they are evidence of lunacy, idiocy or just plain evil.

    The double standard is completely obvious - the same reason you never get statues of Republican Presidents in Western Europe (Lincoln excepted).
    George Bush Jnr. was but 53/54 when he was indulging in his most egregious senior moments.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    FF43 said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    Legionella on the Barge. Lee?

    The full cruise ship experience.
    I see Cruella's gameplan here. Floating petri dishes could well reduce the numbers of asylum seekers significantly.
    Your inference ... not sure they are that organised. But there is also tuberculosis, presumably, given the news yesterday. Or is that too slow? Probably not if one gets a really virulent strain combined with poor food.
    Interesting to follow the fantasises of those who really dislike the current government.

    They really should just sink the boats like the Greeks, or pay the Libyan Coastguard to enslave the migrant. Like proper Europeans.
    Maybe unfair to blame the government for legionella in asylum seekers' accommodation, or for using barges as temporary accommodation. But as they go for cruel performative nonsense on migration they shouldn't expect their mostly justified critics to suddenly discover nuance, when they certainly don't have any.
    The other advantage of fantasy exaggerations is that they can cover up real abuses - such at the Libyan Coastguard project.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    FF43 said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    Legionella on the Barge. Lee?

    The full cruise ship experience.
    I see Cruella's gameplan here. Floating petri dishes could well reduce the numbers of asylum seekers significantly.
    Your inference ... not sure they are that organised. But there is also tuberculosis, presumably, given the news yesterday. Or is that too slow? Probably not if one gets a really virulent strain combined with poor food.
    Interesting to follow the fantasises of those who really dislike the current government.

    They really should just sink the boats like the Greeks, or pay the Libyan Coastguard to enslave the migrant. Like proper Europeans.
    Maybe unfair to blame the government for legionella in asylum seekers' accommodation, or for using barges as temporary accommodation. But as they go for cruel performative nonsense on migration they shouldn't expect their mostly justified critics to suddenly discover nuance, when they certainly don't have any.
    Why? Didn't they think to flush the system?

    That's actually basic. Buy to let landlords have to do it, dammit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,973
    edited August 2023

    HYUFD said:

    The next 26 parliamentary seats Conservative candidate applications now open for:


    Alyn and Deeside (Wales)
    Bridlington and The Wolds (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Bristol North West (South West)
    Bury South (North West)
    Clwyd North (Wales)
    Colchester (Eastern)
    Crawley (South East)
    Croydon East (London)
    Doncaster North (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Dorking and Horley (South East)
    Frome and East Somerset (South West)
    Glastonbury and Somerton (South West)
    Heywood and Middleton North (North West)
    Huntingdon (Eastern)
    Leeds East (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Leeds West and Pudsey (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Mid Cheshire (North West)
    North West Leicestershire (East Midlands)
    Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Richmond Park (London)
    Sittingbourne and Sheppey (South East)
    Southampton Itchen (South East)
    St Albans (Eastern)
    Wakefield and Rothwell (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Waveney Valley (Eastern)
    Wirral West (North West)
    https://conservativehome.com/2023/08/11/the-next-twenty-six-seats-opening-for-candidate-selections/

    Colchester, or St Albans followed by Huntingdon would be geographically quite handy for you I would have thought. Dorking and Horley could be another for you to eye up. Although do you have to have a dry run in Pontefract or Wakefield first?
    I am not on the CCHQ approved candidates' list and not interested in applying for the moment, though I know a few who are on the list who will be interested in the seats approved candidates can now apply for
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    Legionella on the Barge. Lee?

    The full cruise ship experience.
    I see Cruella's gameplan here. Floating petri dishes could well reduce the numbers of asylum seekers significantly.
    Your inference ... not sure they are that organised. But there is also tuberculosis, presumably, given the news yesterday. Or is that too slow? Probably not if one gets a really virulent strain combined with poor food.
    Interesting to follow the fantasises of those who really dislike the current government.

    They really should just sink the boats like the Greeks, or pay the Libyan Coastguard to enslave the migrant. Like proper Europeans.
    Maybe unfair to blame the government for legionella in asylum seekers' accommodation, or for using barges as temporary accommodation. But as they go for cruel performative nonsense on migration they shouldn't expect their mostly justified critics to suddenly discover nuance, when they certainly don't have any.
    Why? Didn't they think to flush the system?

    That's actually basic. Buy to let landlords have to do it, dammit.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-66476538


    "The BBC understands that routine testing was done before migrants moved on to the vessel, moored in Dorset.

    But test results showing traces of the bacteria came back only after migrants had moved to the barge."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,973
    edited August 2023
    Dura_Ace said:

    A conviction would be no legal impediment to DJT, though it may have practical and political consequences. He just couldn't vote for himself because felons can't vote in Florida.

    The latter is key, half of Republicans say they wouldn't vote for Trump again if he is convicted and the RNC would likely ensure he is replaced at the convention even if he wins most delegates in the primaries and caucuses by barring convicted criminals from being nominee
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,006
    edited August 2023
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    We should absolutely compare ourselves with Canada etc.

    I would say there are different varieties of capitalism to compare ourselves against, and learn from. We can’t precisely replicate another model, but there are always useful things to learn.

    Rough ranking as follows:

    Switzerland
    USA
    Scandinavia (ex Norway)
    Germany/Austria
    Netherlands
    Canada/Australia/NZ
    South Korea
    France/Belgium
    *UK*
    Japan
    Spain/Portugal
    Italy
    New Europe (Czech, Poland, Baltics, maybe Hungary)

    Against this bundle, UK is middling and definitely bottom half.

    We are above France/Belgium and South Korea too and if you are unemployed or have a serious illness or injury you are far better off in the UK than US in terms of accessing state support and state healthcare if you are not a high earner who can afford private healthcare anyway.

    We also have a global city in London that only really NYC can rival
    We are a first rate city with a third rate country attached.
    Admirable though it is, I think it's going a bit far to call Lichfield first rate.
    I've been to Lichfield Trent Valley, but not Lichfield City (only passed through).
    Interesting station.

    The rest of Lichfield is a must visit if you like old buildings and Victorian parks.

    However, if you don't - don't bother, as there's nothing else worth visiting.
    Erasmus Darwin House is worth visiting IMO. Father of Charles.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,751
    Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Greetings from Irish Pub, Zhytomyr, Ukraine, where they have Guinness on tap - and we’ve just had a pint of the Irish, a pint of the local, and a bacon cheeseburger, for about £8 a head. Cheers! 🍻

    Strong goatse energy on the logo.
    Had to look that one up.

    Honest.
    As long as you didn’t have to look up one.
    Unless your proclivities or trade lean that way of course.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,903

    kinabalu said:

    Legionella on the Barge. Lee?

    The full cruise ship experience.
    I see Cruella's gameplan here. Floating petri dishes could well reduce the numbers of asylum seekers significantly.
    Replace pull factors with puke factors. It's clever alright.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,141
    edited August 2023

    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    Legionella on the Barge. Lee?

    The full cruise ship experience.
    I see Cruella's gameplan here. Floating petri dishes could well reduce the numbers of asylum seekers significantly.
    Your inference ... not sure they are that organised. But there is also tuberculosis, presumably, given the news yesterday. Or is that too slow? Probably not if one gets a really virulent strain combined with poor food.
    Interesting to follow the fantasises of those who really dislike the current government.

    They really should just sink the boats like the Greeks, or pay the Libyan Coastguard to enslave the migrant. Like proper Europeans.
    Maybe unfair to blame the government for legionella in asylum seekers' accommodation, or for using barges as temporary accommodation. But as they go for cruel performative nonsense on migration they shouldn't expect their mostly justified critics to suddenly discover nuance, when they certainly don't have any.
    Why? Didn't they think to flush the system?

    That's actually basic. Buy to let landlords have to do it, dammit.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-66476538


    "The BBC understands that routine testing was done before migrants moved on to the vessel, moored in Dorset.

    But test results showing traces of the bacteria came back only after migrants had moved to the barge."
    Understands from which source . The Daily Mail editor !
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598
    edited August 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    We should absolutely compare ourselves with Canada etc.

    I would say there are different varieties of capitalism to compare ourselves against, and learn from. We can’t precisely replicate another model, but there are always useful things to learn.

    Rough ranking as follows:

    Switzerland
    USA
    Scandinavia (ex Norway)
    Germany/Austria
    Netherlands
    Canada/Australia/NZ
    South Korea
    France/Belgium
    *UK*
    Japan
    Spain/Portugal
    Italy
    New Europe (Czech, Poland, Baltics, maybe Hungary)

    Against this bundle, UK is middling and definitely bottom half.

    We are above France/Belgium and South Korea too and if you are unemployed or have a serious illness or injury you are far better off in the UK than US in terms of accessing state support and state healthcare if you are not a high earner who can afford private healthcare anyway.

    We also have a global city in London that only really NYC can rival
    We are a first rate city with a third rate country attached.
    Admirable though it is, I think it's going a bit far to call Lichfield first rate.
    I've been to Lichfield Trent Valley, but not Lichfield City (only passed through).
    Interesting station.

    The rest of Lichfield is a must visit if you like old buildings and Victorian parks.

    However, if you don't - don't bother, as there's nothing else worth visiting.
    Erasmus Darwin House is worth visiting IMO. Father of Charles.
    Isn't there a museum for Samuel Johnson? Never been, though. Should go sometime if only because I have read a fair bit about the Lunar Society and E. Darwin.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,993
    edited August 2023
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The next 26 parliamentary seats Conservative candidate applications now open for:


    Alyn and Deeside (Wales)
    Bridlington and The Wolds (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Bristol North West (South West)
    Bury South (North West)
    Clwyd North (Wales)
    Colchester (Eastern)
    Crawley (South East)
    Croydon East (London)
    Doncaster North (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Dorking and Horley (South East)
    Frome and East Somerset (South West)
    Glastonbury and Somerton (South West)
    Heywood and Middleton North (North West)
    Huntingdon (Eastern)
    Leeds East (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Leeds West and Pudsey (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Mid Cheshire (North West)
    North West Leicestershire (East Midlands)
    Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Richmond Park (London)
    Sittingbourne and Sheppey (South East)
    Southampton Itchen (South East)
    St Albans (Eastern)
    Wakefield and Rothwell (Yorkshire and the Humber)
    Waveney Valley (Eastern)
    Wirral West (North West)
    https://conservativehome.com/2023/08/11/the-next-twenty-six-seats-opening-for-candidate-selections/

    Colchester, or St Albans followed by Huntingdon would be geographically quite handy for you I would have thought. Dorking and Horley could be another for you to eye up. Although do you have to have a dry run in Pontefract or Wakefield first?
    I am not on the CCHQ approved candidates' list and not interested in applying for the moment, though I know a few who are on the list who will be interested in the seats approved candidates can now apply for
    I can't imagine a more diligent local MP.

    Bearing in mind some of the utter dross that have become Conservative candidates and MPs I am surprised you haven't thrown your hat into the ring. (Edit: them not you!)

    Time ticks by young HY. But only a few years ago I left University in my 20s. I turned around twice and before I knew it I became eligible for my Welsh bus pass.

    If the Tories do crash and burn at the next GE, being in pole position for the rebuild wouldn't be a bad place to be.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    nico679 said:

    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    Legionella on the Barge. Lee?

    The full cruise ship experience.
    I see Cruella's gameplan here. Floating petri dishes could well reduce the numbers of asylum seekers significantly.
    Your inference ... not sure they are that organised. But there is also tuberculosis, presumably, given the news yesterday. Or is that too slow? Probably not if one gets a really virulent strain combined with poor food.
    Interesting to follow the fantasises of those who really dislike the current government.

    They really should just sink the boats like the Greeks, or pay the Libyan Coastguard to enslave the migrant. Like proper Europeans.
    Maybe unfair to blame the government for legionella in asylum seekers' accommodation, or for using barges as temporary accommodation. But as they go for cruel performative nonsense on migration they shouldn't expect their mostly justified critics to suddenly discover nuance, when they certainly don't have any.
    Why? Didn't they think to flush the system?

    That's actually basic. Buy to let landlords have to do it, dammit.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-66476538


    "The BBC understands that routine testing was done before migrants moved on to the vessel, moored in Dorset.

    But test results showing traces of the bacteria came back only after migrants had moved to the barge."
    Understands from which source . The Daily Mail editor !
    Alison Rose ?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598

    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    Legionella on the Barge. Lee?

    The full cruise ship experience.
    I see Cruella's gameplan here. Floating petri dishes could well reduce the numbers of asylum seekers significantly.
    Your inference ... not sure they are that organised. But there is also tuberculosis, presumably, given the news yesterday. Or is that too slow? Probably not if one gets a really virulent strain combined with poor food.
    Interesting to follow the fantasises of those who really dislike the current government.

    They really should just sink the boats like the Greeks, or pay the Libyan Coastguard to enslave the migrant. Like proper Europeans.
    Maybe unfair to blame the government for legionella in asylum seekers' accommodation, or for using barges as temporary accommodation. But as they go for cruel performative nonsense on migration they shouldn't expect their mostly justified critics to suddenly discover nuance, when they certainly don't have any.
    Why? Didn't they think to flush the system?

    That's actually basic. Buy to let landlords have to do it, dammit.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-66476538


    "The BBC understands that routine testing was done before migrants moved on to the vessel, moored in Dorset.

    But test results showing traces of the bacteria came back only after migrants had moved to the barge."
    Not quite the same as saying "We didn't forget to do it in time", mind.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    We should absolutely compare ourselves with Canada etc.

    I would say there are different varieties of capitalism to compare ourselves against, and learn from. We can’t precisely replicate another model, but there are always useful things to learn.

    Rough ranking as follows:

    Switzerland
    USA
    Scandinavia (ex Norway)
    Germany/Austria
    Netherlands
    Canada/Australia/NZ
    South Korea
    France/Belgium
    *UK*
    Japan
    Spain/Portugal
    Italy
    New Europe (Czech, Poland, Baltics, maybe Hungary)

    Against this bundle, UK is middling and definitely bottom half.

    We are above France/Belgium and South Korea too and if you are unemployed or have a serious illness or injury you are far better off in the UK than US in terms of accessing state support and state healthcare if you are not a high earner who can afford private healthcare anyway.

    We also have a global city in London that only really NYC can rival
    We are a first rate city with a third rate country attached.
    Admirable though it is, I think it's going a bit far to call Lichfield first rate.
    I've been to Lichfield Trent Valley, but not Lichfield City (only passed through).
    Interesting station.

    The rest of Lichfield is a must visit if you like old buildings and Victorian parks.

    However, if you don't - don't bother, as there's nothing else worth visiting.
    Erasmus Darwin House is worth visiting IMO. Father of Charles.
    Isn't there a museum for Samuel Johnson? Never been, though. Should go sometime if only because I have read a fair bit about the Lunar Society and E. Darwin.
    Yes, but both are 'old buildings...'
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028

    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    Legionella on the Barge. Lee?

    The full cruise ship experience.
    I see Cruella's gameplan here. Floating petri dishes could well reduce the numbers of asylum seekers significantly.
    Your inference ... not sure they are that organised. But there is also tuberculosis, presumably, given the news yesterday. Or is that too slow? Probably not if one gets a really virulent strain combined with poor food.
    Interesting to follow the fantasises of those who really dislike the current government.

    They really should just sink the boats like the Greeks, or pay the Libyan Coastguard to enslave the migrant. Like proper Europeans.
    Maybe unfair to blame the government for legionella in asylum seekers' accommodation, or for using barges as temporary accommodation. But as they go for cruel performative nonsense on migration they shouldn't expect their mostly justified critics to suddenly discover nuance, when they certainly don't have any.
    Why? Didn't they think to flush the system?

    That's actually basic. Buy to let landlords have to do it, dammit.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-66476538


    "The BBC understands that routine testing was done before migrants moved on to the vessel, moored in Dorset.

    But test results showing traces of the bacteria came back only after migrants had moved to the barge."
    Didn't it occur to them to, y'know, wait for the fucking results?

    Have they put Acland-Hood in charge or something?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,030
    Sandpit said:

    Stocky said:

    2/2 Continuation:

    Attention turned to the second, more general, concern: why on earth was this eye-wateringly expensive and seemingly inappropriate village chosen? Surely a cheaper and larger location would be more appropriate economically? Parishioners were struggling with the maths. Some are smart cookies.

    Parishioner: This makes no sense economically.

    Rep: There is only a small profit margin and details are commercially confidential.

    Parishioner: Are you a charity? I guess you fund this partly from donations?

    Rep: No we are a private business. We have no donations. The only funding we have is council-funding.

    Parishioner: Then what aren’t you telling us? 6 F/T staff plus 1 P/T plus 2 cars plus upkeep and other costs, plus insurance plus the commercial rent of a 1.5M house at £50k pa? For 2 children? The council pay? You are kidding us?
    Etc Etc

    The parishioners left the meeting feeling bewildered about the economics of it rather than being overly concerned about the change of use. What was being concealed?


    I’ve been mulling this over for two weeks now. I reckon this property will cost £0.5M pa to run, purely council-funded.

    For two children.

    We often talk of the cost of nursing homes for the elderly. We need to pay attention to child social care costs. It is no wonder that councils are going bust.

    See below:
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/aug/28/councils-england-wales-pay-1m-pounds-a-year-to-house-child-in-private-care-home#:~:text=11 months old-,Councils in England and Wales pay £1m a year,child in private care home&text=More than 20 councils in,released to the Guardian shows.

    Comments?

    2/2

    Hence the old joke that sending all the children in care to Eton and Winchester would be cheaper.
    It’s actually been done before, where the social workers have discovered kids that are very bright but held back by circumstance.

    On the original point. Yes, putting two kids in a massive house is totally bonkers. They’d be better off building something that looks like a boarding school on former military base.
    No. They absolutely would not be better off in institutional care.

    For these kinds of cases - which are a comparatively small number - bespoke care packages are absolutely the right approach
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,216
    On topic, some comments from Carville.
    Entertaining, if nothing else.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4146142-james-carvilles-uncensored-thoughts-on-trump-no-labels-and-democrats-future/
    ..“First of all, I don’t know how much longer he can live at this rate and this kind of stress,” Carville said.
    “If something happened, he’s convicted — I don’t know what — I think they hate everybody in the field, and everybody that’s run against him, in their mind, is aiding and abetting the enemy.”
    The Democratic strategist offered some compliments for biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, the upstart GOP candidate he suggested was running a smart race.
    “The only one with a kind of a halfway smart message is Ramaswamy,” said Carville, who added that it was “actually more appealing” than Trump’s message.
    “And his message is kind of, look if something happens to Trump, I’m here for you,” he said.
    He noted Ramaswamy has said he would pardon Trump and has condemned the indictments against the former president. All the other candidates, Carville said, have crossed Trump just by running for the office.
    Carville was relatively dismissive of Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), who has recently won some media and GOP donor attention.
    “I love the Tim Scott boom. But it’s free parking,” Carville said. “And every time I get one of these kind of Republicans that you can tell don’t like Trump, they might be interested in Tim Scott. He’s got a good way about him … OK fine. He’s never passed a bill and believes in celibacy. I don’t think that’s the way most people are. But what do I know?” ..
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,030
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Stocky said:

    2/2 Continuation:

    Attention turned to the second, more general, concern: why on earth was this eye-wateringly expensive and seemingly inappropriate village chosen? Surely a cheaper and larger location would be more appropriate economically? Parishioners were struggling with the maths. Some are smart cookies.

    Parishioner: This makes no sense economically.

    Rep: There is only a small profit margin and details are commercially confidential.

    Parishioner: Are you a charity? I guess you fund this partly from donations?

    Rep: No we are a private business. We have no donations. The only funding we have is council-funding.

    Parishioner: Then what aren’t you telling us? 6 F/T staff plus 1 P/T plus 2 cars plus upkeep and other costs, plus insurance plus the commercial rent of a 1.5M house at £50k pa? For 2 children? The council pay? You are kidding us?
    Etc Etc

    The parishioners left the meeting feeling bewildered about the economics of it rather than being overly concerned about the change of use. What was being concealed?


    I’ve been mulling this over for two weeks now. I reckon this property will cost £0.5M pa to run, purely council-funded.

    For two children.

    We often talk of the cost of nursing homes for the elderly. We need to pay attention to child social care costs. It is no wonder that councils are going bust.

    See below:
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/aug/28/councils-england-wales-pay-1m-pounds-a-year-to-house-child-in-private-care-home#:~:text=11 months old-,Councils in England and Wales pay £1m a year,child in private care home&text=More than 20 councils in,released to the Guardian shows.

    Comments?

    2/2

    Hence the old joke that sending all the children in care to Eton and Winchester would be cheaper.
    It’s actually been done before, where the social workers have discovered kids that are very bright but held back by circumstance.

    On the original point. Yes, putting two kids in a massive house is totally bonkers. They’d be better off building something that looks like a boarding school on former military base.
    At my rowing club, a kid who'd been excluded from school was introduced to rowing, by his dad who was homeschooling him.

    He turned out to be extremely talented. So the club sponsored him, free training etc.

    Won a scholarship on the back of Henley wins to one of the top public schools and from there went onto a rowing scholarship at top US university. Unless something goes wrong, you'll see him in the international rowing scene.

    Smaller sized care homes are less likely to have the problems that a massed barracks type place will have.
    I'd
    certainly agree with that, but equally, two strikes me as surprisingly low for the staffing numbers. I would have expected it to be maybe four or five.

    It is of course possible these are extra-complex cases that are being catered for.
    Care packages are negotiate on an individual basis dependent on the needs of the specific child. Additional costs are just passed through so the provider doesn’t make extra money from having an additional member of staff, for example.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,903

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    A

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I don't understand the odds on the other three. You are literally betting on whether Biden or Trump will die in the next 18 months because that’s the only way one of those two isn't going to be POTUS at the end of Jan '24.

    It literally isn't.

    Either could be incapacitated - and Trump could conceivably be convicted, or so badly damaged by one or more of the ongoing criminal cases that the Republicans replace him.
    You might think the latter event impossible, but it isn't.
    Events

    1) Biden death from age related stuff. 80 years - 6% or so in the next year
    2) Trump death from age related stuff. 77 years - 5% or so in the next year

    P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

    = 0.06 + 0.05 - (0.06*0.05)

    = 0.11 - 0.003

    = 0.107

    10.7% probability than *one* of them keels over in the next year....

    Someone tell me I am wrong, please?
    Well, I definitely don't think this is one for sunglasses.
    B brackets :lol:
    Yes, I know. But it looks a bit odd B)
    You saying that Trump keeling over *wouldn't* be a "Sunglasses in the pub beer garden" moment?
    I'd be too pissed on 'push the boat out' champers to make the pub.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,993
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    Legionella on the Barge. Lee?

    The full cruise ship experience.
    I see Cruella's gameplan here. Floating petri dishes could well reduce the numbers of asylum seekers significantly.
    Your inference ... not sure they are that organised. But there is also tuberculosis, presumably, given the news yesterday. Or is that too slow? Probably not if one gets a really virulent strain combined with poor food.
    Interesting to follow the fantasises of those who really dislike the current government.

    They really should just sink the boats like the Greeks, or pay the Libyan Coastguard to enslave the migrant. Like proper Europeans.
    Maybe unfair to blame the government for legionella in asylum seekers' accommodation, or for using barges as temporary accommodation. But as they go for cruel performative nonsense on migration they shouldn't expect their mostly justified critics to suddenly discover nuance, when they certainly don't have any.
    Why? Didn't they think to flush the system?

    That's actually basic. Buy to let landlords have to do it, dammit.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-66476538


    "The BBC understands that routine testing was done before migrants moved on to the vessel, moored in Dorset.

    But test results showing traces of the bacteria came back only after migrants had moved to the barge."
    Didn't it occur to them to, y'know, wait for the fucking results?

    Have they put Acland-Hood in charge or something?
    It smacks of Home Office desperation. We have Rishi doing his best to steady the ship (no pun intended) whist Jenrick and Braverman's base wickedness often ends in Dick Dastardly style failure.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,030
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    Legionella on the Barge. Lee?

    The full cruise ship experience.
    I see Cruella's gameplan here. Floating petri dishes could well reduce the numbers of asylum seekers significantly.
    Your inference ... not sure they are that organised. But there is also tuberculosis, presumably, given the news yesterday. Or is that too slow? Probably not if one gets a really virulent strain combined with poor food.
    Interesting to follow the fantasises of those who really dislike the current government.

    They really should just sink the boats like the Greeks, or pay the Libyan Coastguard to enslave the migrant. Like proper Europeans.
    Not at all. It's a serious point, because the HO don't screen/check for that before ordering them to move, which also disrupts treatment, which requires a long course of drugs and checks. I recall this from when some time back there was real worry when an antibiotic-resistant strain emerged in homeless people in Edinburgh, and the discussion around that time noted that keeping tabs (so to speak) on the patients was very difficult. They were also malnourished, and that is important becaudse it reduces resistance. From reports the HO do not have a good record in making sure that asylum seeker detainees are actually fed a reasonable diet, though one hopes the barge would be a lot better in this respect than some random third grade hotel.
    I’m sure I remember the media / left getting very upset a few years ago when the government suggested health screening of immigrants. Apparently it’s racist or something
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,163
    ...

    Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Greetings from Irish Pub, Zhytomyr, Ukraine, where they have Guinness on tap - and we’ve just had a pint of the Irish, a pint of the local, and a bacon cheeseburger, for about £8 a head. Cheers! 🍻

    Strong goatse energy on the logo.
    Had to look that one up.

    Honest.
    As long as you didn’t have to look up one.
    Unless your proclivities or trade lean that way of course.
    Proctologist?

    I'm another unfortunate Googler. I just had an inkling that it was something like that but some sort of grime rapper was another possibility.
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    We should absolutely compare ourselves with Canada etc.

    I would say there are different varieties of capitalism to compare ourselves against, and learn from. We can’t precisely replicate another model, but there are always useful things to learn.

    Rough ranking as follows:

    Switzerland
    USA
    Scandinavia (ex Norway)
    Germany/Austria
    Netherlands
    Canada/Australia/NZ
    South Korea
    France/Belgium
    *UK*
    Japan
    Spain/Portugal
    Italy
    New Europe (Czech, Poland, Baltics, maybe Hungary)

    Against this bundle, UK is middling and definitely bottom half.

    We are above France/Belgium and South Korea too and if you are unemployed or have a serious illness or injury you are far better off in the UK than US in terms of accessing state support and state healthcare if you are not a high earner who can afford private healthcare anyway.

    We also have a global city in London that only really NYC can rival
    We are a first rate city with a third rate country attached.
    Admirable though it is, I think it's going a bit far to call Lichfield first rate.
    I've been to Lichfield Trent Valley, but not Lichfield City (only passed through).
    Interesting station.

    The rest of Lichfield is a must visit if you like old buildings and Victorian parks.

    However, if you don't - don't bother, as there's nothing else worth visiting.
    Erasmus Darwin House is worth visiting IMO. Father of Charles.
    Grandfather
  • eekeek Posts: 27,939
    Sandpit said:

    Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Greetings from Irish Pub, Zhytomyr, Ukraine, where they have Guinness on tap - and we’ve just had a pint of the Irish, a pint of the local, and a bacon cheeseburger, for about £8 a head. Cheers! 🍻

    Strong goatse energy on the logo.
    Had to look that one up.

    Honest.
    Hope you just looked at a wiki page, and not anything else!

    Goatse, is the reason that many of us were happy when Rickrolling came around.
    You missed the previous one which was a link to a page fully of javascript generated chairs that very rapidly crashed your machine if you didn't react in a few seconds...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,903
    edited August 2023
    Eabhal said:

    You just have to watch an interview with Trump to realise that his age simply does not matter.

    There has been no obvious decline in his faculties and he retains all the weird energy he had before. (snip)

    In yet another demo of my almost freaky detachment and fairmindedness, PB's biggest Trump hater (me) would agree with you here.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    kinabalu said:

    Eabhal said:

    You just have to watch an interview with Trump to realise that his age simply does not matter.

    There has been no obvious decline in his faculties and he retains all the weird energy he had before. (snip)

    In yet another demo of my almost freaky detachment and fairmindedness, PB's biggest Trump hater (me) would agree with you here.
    Trump will keel over in mid-rant. At some point.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,163
    kinabalu said:

    Eabhal said:

    You just have to watch an interview with Trump to realise that his age simply does not matter.

    There has been no obvious decline in his faculties and he retains all the weird energy he had before. (snip)

    In yet another demo of my almost freaky detachment and fairmindedness, PB's biggest Trump hater (me) would agree with you here.
    Trump has wisely avoided too many injudicious facial interventions. Biden's face is tight as a drum, but it actually ages him more.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,141

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    Legionella on the Barge. Lee?

    The full cruise ship experience.
    I see Cruella's gameplan here. Floating petri dishes could well reduce the numbers of asylum seekers significantly.
    Your inference ... not sure they are that organised. But there is also tuberculosis, presumably, given the news yesterday. Or is that too slow? Probably not if one gets a really virulent strain combined with poor food.
    Interesting to follow the fantasises of those who really dislike the current government.

    They really should just sink the boats like the Greeks, or pay the Libyan Coastguard to enslave the migrant. Like proper Europeans.
    Maybe unfair to blame the government for legionella in asylum seekers' accommodation, or for using barges as temporary accommodation. But as they go for cruel performative nonsense on migration they shouldn't expect their mostly justified critics to suddenly discover nuance, when they certainly don't have any.
    Why? Didn't they think to flush the system?

    That's actually basic. Buy to let landlords have to do it, dammit.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-66476538


    "The BBC understands that routine testing was done before migrants moved on to the vessel, moored in Dorset.

    But test results showing traces of the bacteria came back only after migrants had moved to the barge."
    Didn't it occur to them to, y'know, wait for the fucking results?

    Have they put Acland-Hood in charge or something?
    Remember The Grid.

    This week is Migrants Week, so waiting was out of the question.

    PS. If Lee Anderson and Suella Braverman became an item, legionella would be a decent portmanteau name for them.
    Could you imagine the off spring produced ! It would be like Children of the Damned .
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    Legionella on the Barge. Lee?

    The full cruise ship experience.
    I see Cruella's gameplan here. Floating petri dishes could well reduce the numbers of asylum seekers significantly.
    Your inference ... not sure they are that organised. But there is also tuberculosis, presumably, given the news yesterday. Or is that too slow? Probably not if one gets a really virulent strain combined with poor food.
    Interesting to follow the fantasises of those who really dislike the current government.

    They really should just sink the boats like the Greeks, or pay the Libyan Coastguard to enslave the migrant. Like proper Europeans.
    Maybe unfair to blame the government for legionella in asylum seekers' accommodation, or for using barges as temporary accommodation. But as they go for cruel performative nonsense on migration they shouldn't expect their mostly justified critics to suddenly discover nuance, when they certainly don't have any.
    Why? Didn't they think to flush the system?

    That's actually basic. Buy to let landlords have to do it, dammit.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-66476538


    "The BBC understands that routine testing was done before migrants moved on to the vessel, moored in Dorset.

    But test results showing traces of the bacteria came back only after migrants had moved to the barge."
    Didn't it occur to them to, y'know, wait for the fucking results?

    Have they put Acland-Hood in charge or something?
    Remember The Grid.

    This week is Migrants Week, so waiting was out of the question.

    PS. If Lee Anderson and Suella Braverman became an item, legionella would be a decent portmanteau name for them.
    If they form a new party it could be The Leeman Party.

    Ingénus, please Google it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,993
    ...
    nico679 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    Legionella on the Barge. Lee?

    The full cruise ship experience.
    I see Cruella's gameplan here. Floating petri dishes could well reduce the numbers of asylum seekers significantly.
    Your inference ... not sure they are that organised. But there is also tuberculosis, presumably, given the news yesterday. Or is that too slow? Probably not if one gets a really virulent strain combined with poor food.
    Interesting to follow the fantasises of those who really dislike the current government.

    They really should just sink the boats like the Greeks, or pay the Libyan Coastguard to enslave the migrant. Like proper Europeans.
    Maybe unfair to blame the government for legionella in asylum seekers' accommodation, or for using barges as temporary accommodation. But as they go for cruel performative nonsense on migration they shouldn't expect their mostly justified critics to suddenly discover nuance, when they certainly don't have any.
    Why? Didn't they think to flush the system?

    That's actually basic. Buy to let landlords have to do it, dammit.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-66476538


    "The BBC understands that routine testing was done before migrants moved on to the vessel, moored in Dorset.

    But test results showing traces of the bacteria came back only after migrants had moved to the barge."
    Didn't it occur to them to, y'know, wait for the fucking results?

    Have they put Acland-Hood in charge or something?
    Remember The Grid.

    This week is Migrants Week, so waiting was out of the question.

    PS. If Lee Anderson and Suella Braverman became an item, legionella would be a decent portmanteau name for them.
    Could you imagine the off spring produced ! It would be like Children of the Damned .
    Ugh! That would suggest a reproductive act would need to have occurred. Pass the mind bleach!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,903

    kinabalu said:

    Eabhal said:

    You just have to watch an interview with Trump to realise that his age simply does not matter.

    There has been no obvious decline in his faculties and he retains all the weird energy he had before. (snip)

    In yet another demo of my almost freaky detachment and fairmindedness, PB's biggest Trump hater (me) would agree with you here.
    Trump will keel over in mid-rant. At some point.
    Those final 3 words would win Olympic weightlifting gold at a canter.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Eabhal said:

    You just have to watch an interview with Trump to realise that his age simply does not matter.

    There has been no obvious decline in his faculties and he retains all the weird energy he had before. (snip)

    In yet another demo of my almost freaky detachment and fairmindedness, PB's biggest Trump hater (me) would agree with you here.
    Trump will keel over in mid-rant. At some point.
    Those final 3 words would win Olympic weightlifting gold at a canter.
    The stats say something like a 5% chance this year...

    I don't think he'll fade away, it'll be sudden.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,993
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Eabhal said:

    You just have to watch an interview with Trump to realise that his age simply does not matter.

    There has been no obvious decline in his faculties and he retains all the weird energy he had before. (snip)

    In yet another demo of my almost freaky detachment and fairmindedness, PB's biggest Trump hater (me) would agree with you here.
    Trump will keel over in mid-rant. At some point.
    Those final 3 words would win Olympic weightlifting gold at a canter.
    Mind you that would be a s*** Just Three Words instruction. "Caller can you give me your geographical location?" "At some point".
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598
    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    Legionella on the Barge. Lee?

    The full cruise ship experience.
    I see Cruella's gameplan here. Floating petri dishes could well reduce the numbers of asylum seekers significantly.
    Your inference ... not sure they are that organised. But there is also tuberculosis, presumably, given the news yesterday. Or is that too slow? Probably not if one gets a really virulent strain combined with poor food.
    Interesting to follow the fantasises of those who really dislike the current government.

    They really should just sink the boats like the Greeks, or pay the Libyan Coastguard to enslave the migrant. Like proper Europeans.
    Maybe unfair to blame the government for legionella in asylum seekers' accommodation, or for using barges as temporary accommodation. But as they go for cruel performative nonsense on migration they shouldn't expect their mostly justified critics to suddenly discover nuance, when they certainly don't have any.
    Why? Didn't they think to flush the system?

    That's actually basic. Buy to let landlords have to do it, dammit.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-66476538


    "The BBC understands that routine testing was done before migrants moved on to the vessel, moored in Dorset.

    But test results showing traces of the bacteria came back only after migrants had moved to the barge."
    Didn't it occur to them to, y'know, wait for the fucking results?

    Have they put Acland-Hood in charge or something?
    Remember The Grid.

    This week is Migrants Week, so waiting was out of the question.

    PS. If Lee Anderson and Suella Braverman became an item, legionella would be a decent portmanteau name for them.
    If they form a new party it could be The Leeman Party.

    Ingénus, please Google it.
    Being curious about etymology I looked up goatse from that point of view. Which certainly answered that. Not looking this time.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,903

    kinabalu said:

    Eabhal said:

    You just have to watch an interview with Trump to realise that his age simply does not matter.

    There has been no obvious decline in his faculties and he retains all the weird energy he had before. (snip)

    In yet another demo of my almost freaky detachment and fairmindedness, PB's biggest Trump hater (me) would agree with you here.
    Trump has wisely avoided too many injudicious facial interventions. Biden's face is tight as a drum, but it actually ages him more.
    Trump also benefits more than most from wearing clothes. He'd look much worse naked. It's a real stroke of fortune for him that he's able to hide this from the electorate.
  • SparksSparks Posts: 7
    ... and Trump is a criminal and insane - whether or not that's a benefit or a drawback, only the US electorate can say.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,163
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Eabhal said:

    You just have to watch an interview with Trump to realise that his age simply does not matter.

    There has been no obvious decline in his faculties and he retains all the weird energy he had before. (snip)

    In yet another demo of my almost freaky detachment and fairmindedness, PB's biggest Trump hater (me) would agree with you here.
    Trump has wisely avoided too many injudicious facial interventions. Biden's face is tight as a drum, but it actually ages him more.
    Trump also benefits more than most from wearing clothes. He'd look much worse naked. It's a real stroke of fortune for him that he's able to hide this from the electorate.
    Hard to disagree with, though I don't think many are clamouring to see Biden in the altogether either.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    kinabalu said:

    Eabhal said:

    You just have to watch an interview with Trump to realise that his age simply does not matter.

    There has been no obvious decline in his faculties and he retains all the weird energy he had before. (snip)

    In yet another demo of my almost freaky detachment and fairmindedness, PB's biggest Trump hater (me) would agree with you here.
    Trump has wisely avoided too many injudicious facial interventions. Biden's face is tight as a drum, but it actually ages him more.
    Biden looks and acts older than he is. He could easily pass for 90.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,993
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Eabhal said:

    You just have to watch an interview with Trump to realise that his age simply does not matter.

    There has been no obvious decline in his faculties and he retains all the weird energy he had before. (snip)

    In yet another demo of my almost freaky detachment and fairmindedness, PB's biggest Trump hater (me) would agree with you here.
    Trump has wisely avoided too many injudicious facial interventions. Biden's face is tight as a drum, but it actually ages him more.
    Trump also benefits more than most from wearing clothes. He'd look much worse naked. It's a real stroke of fortune for him that he's able to hide this from the electorate.
    More mind bleach required.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,494

    HYUFD said:



    I am not on the CCHQ approved candidates' list and not interested in applying for the moment, though I know a few who are on the list who will be interested in the seats approved candidates can now apply for

    I can't imagine a more diligent local MP.

    Bearing in mind some of the utter dross that have become Conservative candidates and MPs I am surprised you haven't thrown your hat into the ring. (Edit: them not you!)

    Time ticks by young HY. But only a few years ago I left University in my 20s. I turned around twice and before I knew it I became eligible for my Welsh bus pass.

    If the Tories do crash and burn at the next GE, being in pole position for the rebuild wouldn't be a bad place to be.
    I think HYUFD would be a good Tory MP - dependable, intelligent, loyal but not dumb. They could do a lot worse (and frequently do).
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,141
    Apparently the government put more migrants on board before test results were received .

    The government is fxcking clueless aswell as being utterly vile.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598
    O/T but interesting piece relating to the current favourite PB ex-watering hole:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/aug/11/crooked-house-rebuild-would-be-very-complicated-and-costly-endeavour
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,903

    HYUFD said:



    I am not on the CCHQ approved candidates' list and not interested in applying for the moment, though I know a few who are on the list who will be interested in the seats approved candidates can now apply for

    I can't imagine a more diligent local MP.

    Bearing in mind some of the utter dross that have become Conservative candidates and MPs I am surprised you haven't thrown your hat into the ring. (Edit: them not you!)

    Time ticks by young HY. But only a few years ago I left University in my 20s. I turned around twice and before I knew it I became eligible for my Welsh bus pass.

    If the Tories do crash and burn at the next GE, being in pole position for the rebuild wouldn't be a bad place to be.
    I think HYUFD would be a good Tory MP - dependable, intelligent, loyal but not dumb. They could do a lot worse (and frequently do).
    I agree. He would, however, need to keep the 'invade Scotland' rhetoric out of the chamber and keep it for the fringe. Perhaps a newly formed Scottish Research Group.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,993
    edited August 2023

    HYUFD said:



    I am not on the CCHQ approved candidates' list and not interested in applying for the moment, though I know a few who are on the list who will be interested in the seats approved candidates can now apply for

    I can't imagine a more diligent local MP.

    Bearing in mind some of the utter dross that have become Conservative candidates and MPs I am surprised you haven't thrown your hat into the ring. (Edit: them not you!)

    Time ticks by young HY. But only a few years ago I left University in my 20s. I turned around twice and before I knew it I became eligible for my Welsh bus pass.

    If the Tories do crash and burn at the next GE, being in pole position for the rebuild wouldn't be a bad place to be.
    I think HYUFD would be a good Tory MP - dependable, intelligent, loyal but not dumb. They could do a lot worse (and frequently do).
    If the Conservatives don't adopt him as a candidate quickly, perhaps Plaid Cymru could.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,325
    Carnyx said:

    O/T but interesting piece relating to the current favourite PB ex-watering hole:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/aug/11/crooked-house-rebuild-would-be-very-complicated-and-costly-endeavour

    This is not a shock. Rebuilding the leaning tower of Pisa exactly as it is now would take some doing too.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:



    I am not on the CCHQ approved candidates' list and not interested in applying for the moment, though I know a few who are on the list who will be interested in the seats approved candidates can now apply for

    I can't imagine a more diligent local MP.

    Bearing in mind some of the utter dross that have become Conservative candidates and MPs I am surprised you haven't thrown your hat into the ring. (Edit: them not you!)

    Time ticks by young HY. But only a few years ago I left University in my 20s. I turned around twice and before I knew it I became eligible for my Welsh bus pass.

    If the Tories do crash and burn at the next GE, being in pole position for the rebuild wouldn't be a bad place to be.
    I think HYUFD would be a good Tory MP - dependable, intelligent, loyal but not dumb. They could do a lot worse (and frequently do).
    I agree. He would, however, need to keep the 'invade Scotland' rhetoric out of the chamber and keep it for the fringe. Perhaps a newly formed Scottish Research Group.
    Surely, he should keep it in the tank?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598
    algarkirk said:

    Carnyx said:

    O/T but interesting piece relating to the current favourite PB ex-watering hole:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/aug/11/crooked-house-rebuild-would-be-very-complicated-and-costly-endeavour

    This is not a shock. Rebuilding the leaning tower of Pisa exactly as it is now would take some doing too.
    Sure. Also interesting seeing how they do it, properly I mean, not like the late lamented pub.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    Carnyx said:

    O/T but interesting piece relating to the current favourite PB ex-watering hole:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/aug/11/crooked-house-rebuild-would-be-very-complicated-and-costly-endeavour

    This is not a shock. Rebuilding the leaning tower of Pisa exactly as it is now would take some doing too.
    Sure. Also interesting seeing how they do it, properly I mean, not like the late lamented pub.
    There's plenty of documentaries out there of rebuilding stuff from ridiculously little remains.

    The Japanese Zero that was rebuilt, to flying condition, from the burn wreckage left in a jungle for 40 years, for example.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283

    HYUFD said:



    I am not on the CCHQ approved candidates' list and not interested in applying for the moment, though I know a few who are on the list who will be interested in the seats approved candidates can now apply for

    I can't imagine a more diligent local MP.

    Bearing in mind some of the utter dross that have become Conservative candidates and MPs I am surprised you haven't thrown your hat into the ring. (Edit: them not you!)

    Time ticks by young HY. But only a few years ago I left University in my 20s. I turned around twice and before I knew it I became eligible for my Welsh bus pass.

    If the Tories do crash and burn at the next GE, being in pole position for the rebuild wouldn't be a bad place to be.
    I think HYUFD would be a good Tory MP - dependable, intelligent, loyal but not dumb. They could do a lot worse (and frequently do).
    Damned by faint praise. "They could do a lot worse (and frequently do)", whilst being true for Tories and Labour, it is not the endorsement I would like for anyone standing for the Mother of Parliaments.

    There are aspects of HY that I quite like. There are lots that I do not, and his inability to do anything other than toe the party line is the main one. The Tory Party in particular desperately needs intelligent independent thinkers rather than groupspeakers. SO for that reason, "I'm out".
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411

    HYUFD said:



    I am not on the CCHQ approved candidates' list and not interested in applying for the moment, though I know a few who are on the list who will be interested in the seats approved candidates can now apply for

    I can't imagine a more diligent local MP.

    Bearing in mind some of the utter dross that have become Conservative candidates and MPs I am surprised you haven't thrown your hat into the ring. (Edit: them not you!)

    Time ticks by young HY. But only a few years ago I left University in my 20s. I turned around twice and before I knew it I became eligible for my Welsh bus pass.

    If the Tories do crash and burn at the next GE, being in pole position for the rebuild wouldn't be a bad place to be.
    I think HYUFD would be a good Tory MP - dependable, intelligent, loyal but not dumb. They could do a lot worse (and frequently do).
    Damned by faint praise. "They could do a lot worse (and frequently do)", whilst being true for Tories and Labour, it is not the endorsement I would like for anyone standing for the Mother of Parliaments.

    There are aspects of HY that I quite like. There are lots that I do not, and his inability to do anything other than toe the party line is the main one. The Tory Party in particular desperately needs intelligent independent thinkers rather than groupspeakers. SO for that reason, "I'm out".
    Intellectually rigid?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,903

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Eabhal said:

    You just have to watch an interview with Trump to realise that his age simply does not matter.

    There has been no obvious decline in his faculties and he retains all the weird energy he had before. (snip)

    In yet another demo of my almost freaky detachment and fairmindedness, PB's biggest Trump hater (me) would agree with you here.
    Trump will keel over in mid-rant. At some point.
    Those final 3 words would win Olympic weightlifting gold at a canter.
    The stats say something like a 5% chance this year...

    I don't think he'll fade away, it'll be sudden.
    Yep that's a solid enough call. Re the 5% it's worth noting it's not only death that would knock him out of WH24 on health grounds. So would a whole host of medical events. It's not a bad idea to list them and assign a probability to each - although maybe not on here.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283

    HYUFD said:



    I am not on the CCHQ approved candidates' list and not interested in applying for the moment, though I know a few who are on the list who will be interested in the seats approved candidates can now apply for

    I can't imagine a more diligent local MP.

    Bearing in mind some of the utter dross that have become Conservative candidates and MPs I am surprised you haven't thrown your hat into the ring. (Edit: them not you!)

    Time ticks by young HY. But only a few years ago I left University in my 20s. I turned around twice and before I knew it I became eligible for my Welsh bus pass.

    If the Tories do crash and burn at the next GE, being in pole position for the rebuild wouldn't be a bad place to be.
    I think HYUFD would be a good Tory MP - dependable, intelligent, loyal but not dumb. They could do a lot worse (and frequently do).
    Damned by faint praise. "They could do a lot worse (and frequently do)", whilst being true for Tories and Labour, it is not the endorsement I would like for anyone standing for the Mother of Parliaments.

    There are aspects of HY that I quite like. There are lots that I do not, and his inability to do anything other than toe the party line is the main one. The Tory Party in particular desperately needs intelligent independent thinkers rather than groupspeakers. SO for that reason, "I'm out".
    Intellectually rigid?
    Without wishing to be mean, I think just "rigid" would suffice.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598
    edited August 2023

    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    Carnyx said:

    O/T but interesting piece relating to the current favourite PB ex-watering hole:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/aug/11/crooked-house-rebuild-would-be-very-complicated-and-costly-endeavour

    This is not a shock. Rebuilding the leaning tower of Pisa exactly as it is now would take some doing too.
    Sure. Also interesting seeing how they do it, properly I mean, not like the late lamented pub.
    There's plenty of documentaries out there of rebuilding stuff from ridiculously little remains.

    The Japanese Zero that was rebuilt, to flying condition, from the burn wreckage left in a jungle for 40 years, for example.
    They did have plans to work from. Bit tricky without. Not so bad for a pub where one can fill in behind the facade with old or broken brick, but with such an [edit] distorted bent one ... I'd be surprised if anyone had done a raster laser scan of the Crooked Billet, which would be ideal!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,993
    ...
    nico679 said:

    Apparently the government put more migrants on board before test results were received .

    The government is fxcking clueless aswell as being utterly vile.

    Breaches under HASAWA, RIDDOR,The Management of Health and Safety at Work Regulations 1999 (Screws have rights too) The Water Supply (Water Quality) Regulations 2018, The Prison (Amendment) Rules 2000, for starters.

    The HSE should be over this ship like a rash.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598
    edited August 2023

    ...

    nico679 said:

    Apparently the government put more migrants on board before test results were received .

    The government is fxcking clueless aswell as being utterly vile.

    Breaches under HASAWA, RIDDOR,The Management of Health and Safety at Work Regulations 1999 (Screws have rights too) The Water Supply (Water Quality) Regulations 2018, The Prison (Amendment) Rules 2000, for starters.

    The HSE should be over this ship like a rash.
    And maritime law, let's not forget. e.g.

    https://www.missiontoseafarers.org/food

    Edit: seeing as it's a foreign registered vessel, which provides interesting scope.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283

    ...

    nico679 said:

    Apparently the government put more migrants on board before test results were received .

    The government is fxcking clueless aswell as being utterly vile.

    Breaches under HASAWA, RIDDOR,The Management of Health and Safety at Work Regulations 1999 (Screws have rights too) The Water Supply (Water Quality) Regulations 2018, The Prison (Amendment) Rules 2000, for starters.

    The HSE should be over this ship like a rash.
    It sounds like some protest group called Legionella Bacterium already is.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,903
    Dura_Ace said:

    kinabalu said:

    Eabhal said:

    You just have to watch an interview with Trump to realise that his age simply does not matter.

    There has been no obvious decline in his faculties and he retains all the weird energy he had before. (snip)

    In yet another demo of my almost freaky detachment and fairmindedness, PB's biggest Trump hater (me) would agree with you here.
    Trump has wisely avoided too many injudicious facial interventions. Biden's face is tight as a drum, but it actually ages him more.
    Biden looks and acts older than he is. He could easily pass for 90.
    I think it's more he looks his age. These days everybody over 50 strains to look younger than they are - 70 is the new 25 and all of that nonsense - and so somebody just looking their age is deemed to have let themselves go.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411

    HYUFD said:



    I am not on the CCHQ approved candidates' list and not interested in applying for the moment, though I know a few who are on the list who will be interested in the seats approved candidates can now apply for

    I can't imagine a more diligent local MP.

    Bearing in mind some of the utter dross that have become Conservative candidates and MPs I am surprised you haven't thrown your hat into the ring. (Edit: them not you!)

    Time ticks by young HY. But only a few years ago I left University in my 20s. I turned around twice and before I knew it I became eligible for my Welsh bus pass.

    If the Tories do crash and burn at the next GE, being in pole position for the rebuild wouldn't be a bad place to be.
    I think HYUFD would be a good Tory MP - dependable, intelligent, loyal but not dumb. They could do a lot worse (and frequently do).
    Damned by faint praise. "They could do a lot worse (and frequently do)", whilst being true for Tories and Labour, it is not the endorsement I would like for anyone standing for the Mother of Parliaments.

    There are aspects of HY that I quite like. There are lots that I do not, and his inability to do anything other than toe the party line is the main one. The Tory Party in particular desperately needs intelligent independent thinkers rather than groupspeakers. SO for that reason, "I'm out".
    Intellectually rigid?
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Eabhal said:

    You just have to watch an interview with Trump to realise that his age simply does not matter.

    There has been no obvious decline in his faculties and he retains all the weird energy he had before. (snip)

    In yet another demo of my almost freaky detachment and fairmindedness, PB's biggest Trump hater (me) would agree with you here.
    Trump will keel over in mid-rant. At some point.
    Those final 3 words would win Olympic weightlifting gold at a canter.
    The stats say something like a 5% chance this year...

    I don't think he'll fade away, it'll be sudden.
    Yep that's a solid enough call. Re the 5% it's worth noting it's not only death that would knock him out of WH24 on health grounds. So would a whole host of medical events. It's not a bad idea to list them and assign a probability to each - although maybe not on here.
    Why not? - we are a betting site. The fact that two quite elderly men are the front runners is signifiant. Trump is in poor physical shape, but active. Biden looks physically healthier.

    As I noted earlier - we are looking at a ~10% probability that one (or both) of them keels over before election day.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kinabalu said:

    Eabhal said:

    You just have to watch an interview with Trump to realise that his age simply does not matter.

    There has been no obvious decline in his faculties and he retains all the weird energy he had before. (snip)

    In yet another demo of my almost freaky detachment and fairmindedness, PB's biggest Trump hater (me) would agree with you here.
    Trump has wisely avoided too many injudicious facial interventions. Biden's face is tight as a drum, but it actually ages him more.
    Biden looks and acts older than he is. He could easily pass for 90.
    I think it's more he looks his age. These days everybody over 50 strains to look younger than they are - 70 is the new 25 and all of that nonsense - and so somebody just looking their age is deemed to have let themselves go.
    I couldn't give a shit how old he is so long as he can do the job. He seems to be doing quite well.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,993

    HYUFD said:



    I am not on the CCHQ approved candidates' list and not interested in applying for the moment, though I know a few who are on the list who will be interested in the seats approved candidates can now apply for

    I can't imagine a more diligent local MP.

    Bearing in mind some of the utter dross that have become Conservative candidates and MPs I am surprised you haven't thrown your hat into the ring. (Edit: them not you!)

    Time ticks by young HY. But only a few years ago I left University in my 20s. I turned around twice and before I knew it I became eligible for my Welsh bus pass.

    If the Tories do crash and burn at the next GE, being in pole position for the rebuild wouldn't be a bad place to be.
    I think HYUFD would be a good Tory MP - dependable, intelligent, loyal but not dumb. They could do a lot worse (and frequently do).
    Damned by faint praise. "They could do a lot worse (and frequently do)", whilst being true for Tories and Labour, it is not the endorsement I would like for anyone standing for the Mother of Parliaments.

    There are aspects of HY that I quite like. There are lots that I do not, and his inability to do anything other than toe the party line is the main one. The Tory Party in particular desperately needs intelligent independent thinkers rather than groupspeakers. SO for that reason, "I'm out".
    When you look at some MPS who have taken the shilling and done nothing for their constituents. Hat tips go to jailbird Jared, Mad Nad and Bozo, By comparison I would imagine HY's constituents would get a top quality service.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,973

    Eabhal said:

    You just have to watch an interview with Trump to realise that his age simply does not matter.

    There has been no obvious decline in his faculties and he retains all the weird energy he had before. Meanwhile, Biden...

    You must thus be implying Trump has been as mad as a March Hare for an awfully long time.

    I am more comfortable with a few minor senior Presidential moments each day than someone who should never be allowed to leave his padded cell.
    Biden's been doing the "senior" moments for much of his life. He seems to just make that kind of gaffe.
    He has, yes. Anyone pointing to one of them as evidence of mental decline is stupid.

    But you don't have to watch much video of Biden to realise that he is very old, and he could write suddenly become frail. I mean there's still about a tenth of the Senate, or so, who he could probably beat in a sprint, but that just goes to show that the gerentocracy extends way beyond the White House.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    Carnyx said:

    O/T but interesting piece relating to the current favourite PB ex-watering hole:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/aug/11/crooked-house-rebuild-would-be-very-complicated-and-costly-endeavour

    This is not a shock. Rebuilding the leaning tower of Pisa exactly as it is now would take some doing too.
    Sure. Also interesting seeing how they do it, properly I mean, not like the late lamented pub.
    There's plenty of documentaries out there of rebuilding stuff from ridiculously little remains.

    The Japanese Zero that was rebuilt, to flying condition, from the burn wreckage left in a jungle for 40 years, for example.
    They did have plans to work from. Bit tricky without. Not so bad for a pub where one can fill in behind the facade with old or broken brick, but with such an [edit] distorted bent one ... I'd be surprised if anyone had done a raster laser scan of the Crooked Billet, which would be ideal!
    Zillions of tourist photos - there are programs that can cut and paste such, now and build up a 3D of the interior. IIRC such has been used on other restorations - I believe Notre Dame is one of them.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,903

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Eabhal said:

    You just have to watch an interview with Trump to realise that his age simply does not matter.

    There has been no obvious decline in his faculties and he retains all the weird energy he had before. (snip)

    In yet another demo of my almost freaky detachment and fairmindedness, PB's biggest Trump hater (me) would agree with you here.
    Trump has wisely avoided too many injudicious facial interventions. Biden's face is tight as a drum, but it actually ages him more.
    Trump also benefits more than most from wearing clothes. He'd look much worse naked. It's a real stroke of fortune for him that he's able to hide this from the electorate.
    More mind bleach required.
    Ok yes, sorry. Now it's hard to shift a mental image of him sumo wrestling with Putin, the both in tiny little loincloths. When Two Tribes ...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,006
    "How does it feel to live without a smartphone? ‘Almost spiritual’

    For most, giving up a smartphone in 2023 would be an almost inconceivable inconvenience. But those who’ve done it say they found delight with dumber devices"

    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2023/aug/12/how-does-it-feel-to-live-without-a-smartphone-almost-spiritual
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    edited August 2023
    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kinabalu said:

    Eabhal said:

    You just have to watch an interview with Trump to realise that his age simply does not matter.

    There has been no obvious decline in his faculties and he retains all the weird energy he had before. (snip)

    In yet another demo of my almost freaky detachment and fairmindedness, PB's biggest Trump hater (me) would agree with you here.
    Trump has wisely avoided too many injudicious facial interventions. Biden's face is tight as a drum, but it actually ages him more.
    Biden looks and acts older than he is. He could easily pass for 90.
    I think it's more he looks his age. These days everybody over 50 strains to look younger than they are - 70 is the new 25 and all of that nonsense - and so somebody just looking their age is deemed to have let themselves go.
    The Presidency ages people pretty hard as well.

    I recall people criticising Bush II and Obama for taking too much time off. Even too much exercise! Given that the President is running the government wherever he is, these days, it just seemed sane to me.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,163
    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kinabalu said:

    Eabhal said:

    You just have to watch an interview with Trump to realise that his age simply does not matter.

    There has been no obvious decline in his faculties and he retains all the weird energy he had before. (snip)

    In yet another demo of my almost freaky detachment and fairmindedness, PB's biggest Trump hater (me) would agree with you here.
    Trump has wisely avoided too many injudicious facial interventions. Biden's face is tight as a drum, but it actually ages him more.
    Biden looks and acts older than he is. He could easily pass for 90.
    I think it's more he looks his age. These days everybody over 50 strains to look younger than they are - 70 is the new 25 and all of that nonsense - and so somebody just looking their age is deemed to have let themselves go.
    I would hardly call this the face of a rugged all-American hero bravely looking his age.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/15595866/joe-bidens-face-plastic-surgeons-cosmetic-procedures/
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,903

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Eabhal said:

    You just have to watch an interview with Trump to realise that his age simply does not matter.

    There has been no obvious decline in his faculties and he retains all the weird energy he had before. (snip)

    In yet another demo of my almost freaky detachment and fairmindedness, PB's biggest Trump hater (me) would agree with you here.
    Trump has wisely avoided too many injudicious facial interventions. Biden's face is tight as a drum, but it actually ages him more.
    Trump also benefits more than most from wearing clothes. He'd look much worse naked. It's a real stroke of fortune for him that he's able to hide this from the electorate.
    Hard to disagree with, though I don't think many are clamouring to see Biden in the altogether either.
    I didn't say they were. My point - if there was one - is that it's Trump who'd stand to lose the most if things went in that direction.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,300

    HYUFD said:



    I am not on the CCHQ approved candidates' list and not interested in applying for the moment, though I know a few who are on the list who will be interested in the seats approved candidates can now apply for

    I can't imagine a more diligent local MP.

    Bearing in mind some of the utter dross that have become Conservative candidates and MPs I am surprised you haven't thrown your hat into the ring. (Edit: them not you!)

    Time ticks by young HY. But only a few years ago I left University in my 20s. I turned around twice and before I knew it I became eligible for my Welsh bus pass.

    If the Tories do crash and burn at the next GE, being in pole position for the rebuild wouldn't be a bad place to be.
    I think HYUFD would be a good Tory MP - dependable, intelligent, loyal but not dumb. They could do a lot worse (and frequently do).
    Damned by faint praise. "They could do a lot worse (and frequently do)", whilst being true for Tories and Labour, it is not the endorsement I would like for anyone standing for the Mother of Parliaments.

    There are aspects of HY that I quite like. There are lots that I do not, and his inability to do anything other than toe the party line is the main one. The Tory Party in particular desperately needs intelligent independent thinkers rather than groupspeakers. SO for that reason, "I'm out".
    HY isn't pompous though, so there's always that.
This discussion has been closed.