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Biden now a 40% betting chance of winning WH2 – politicalbetting.com
Biden now a 40% betting chance of winning WH2 – politicalbetting.com
By far the biggest betting market over the next fifteen months will be the one above – who is going to win WH2024 and as can be seen from the chart Biden is now a 40% chance.
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If Twump is to be The Prisoner, let him not be number 6.
The Crooked House will not be consigned to history on our watch.
Full statement from
@alex__claridge
& I following our meeting with South Staffordshire District Council👇🏻
https://twitter.com/andy4wm/status/1689966537761820672?s=20
https://news.sky.com/story/asylum-seekers-to-be-moved-off-bibby-stockholm-barge-after-legionella-bacteria-found-12937904
Why only European peers? What about Canada, Australia, USA and other developed English speaking peer nations?
Of course what the figures from @OnlyLivingBoy show is that GDP growth (esp per capita considering 8 million population growth in final period) was highest pre-EEC, moderately high in the EEC and utterly collapsed in the period we were in the EU.
Which was replicated around western Europe, which is why western Europe was the single largest market in the world in the 80s, larger than America, but dropping down to 4th largest now and sinking still. What could possibly have caused western Europe to stagnate for decades now while the rest of the developed world grows?
LEGIONNAIRES bacteria aboard the Bibby.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/other/asylum-seekers-to-be-moved-off-bibby-stockholm-barge-after-legionella-bacteria-found/ar-AA1f8KqJ
As part of my series of parish-councils- are-a-menace series of posts, I offer this for your delectation. (Apologies for the length, I’ve split it in two.)
Two weeks ago I was tipped off that a parish council meeting in a neighbouring village would be worth attending as parishioners were sharpening their pitchforks.
Bear in mind that this village is very small and the properties are all residential and top-end – it is one of the most desirable villages in the county. Rural, beautifully comatose and with no businesses except for one stables on the fringe.
The parish has been notified of a plan to convert a residential property to a care home for children. OMG. Pitchforks are gleaming.
Turns out that a particular property was up for rent and an organisation which runs childrens’ homes has rented it on the assumption of being granted planning position (change of use). The property is a £1.5M detached house with four bedrooms and very small garden.
Two concerns were raised, the first being around the influx of children in social care. Four bedrooms, it was assumed, may imply 8 children. However, this is how the business’s representative (present at the meeting) explained it:
There is a shortage of residences for troubled children, children who have undergone trauma including sexual or other serious harm and which social services have removed from the parents. The children would be between 7 and 17 years old. The business would staff the home, involving six full-time staff, purely for that house, working shifts in 24-48 hours stints plus a part-time manager. Two cars would be purchased for the staff to use for outings and suchlike. The property would, of course, be internally converted to satisfy health and safety requirements and regulatory inspections would take place. There would be no external alterations other than some garden work. The delinquent parents would not know where the children are located.
Latching on the to shift system, a parishioner asked: Where do the staff sleep?
Rep: In the house.
Parishioner: But it is only a four bedroomed house.
Rep: Yes, two of the bedrooms will be staff bedrooms and two for the children
Parishioner: Oh. So only four children then?
Rep: No . Two. There can only be one child per room.
The heat in the room cools significantly on the revelation that only two children at a time will be resident.
1/2
Something has gone a bit pear shaped there.
Attention turned to the second, more general, concern: why on earth was this eye-wateringly expensive and seemingly inappropriate village chosen? Surely a cheaper and larger location would be more appropriate economically? Parishioners were struggling with the maths. Some are smart cookies.
Parishioner: This makes no sense economically.
Rep: There is only a small profit margin and details are commercially confidential.
Parishioner: Are you a charity? I guess you fund this partly from donations?
Rep: No we are a private business. We have no donations. The only funding we have is council-funding.
Parishioner: Then what aren’t you telling us? 6 F/T staff plus 1 P/T plus 2 cars plus upkeep and other costs, plus insurance plus the commercial rent of a 1.5M house at £50k pa? For 2 children? The council pay? You are kidding us?
Etc Etc
The parishioners left the meeting feeling bewildered about the economics of it rather than being overly concerned about the change of use. What was being concealed?
I’ve been mulling this over for two weeks now. I reckon this property will cost £0.5M pa to run, purely council-funded.
For two children.
We often talk of the cost of nursing homes for the elderly. We need to pay attention to child social care costs. It is no wonder that councils are going bust.
See below:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/aug/28/councils-england-wales-pay-1m-pounds-a-year-to-house-child-in-private-care-home#:~:text=11 months old-,Councils in England and Wales pay £1m a year,child in private care home&text=More than 20 councils in,released to the Guardian shows.
Comments?
2/2
Where, approximately, is this?
It’s very expensive (packages can be multiple £k on a weekly basis). But cheaper and better for the kids than institutional care.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-66476538
Such as music, literature, film, TV, the Premier League etc
As well as of course business services etc.
This is the 21st century. People in America can instantaneously stream Adelle music, people in Dubai can watch the Premier League live. People in Australia can watch Game of Thrones, filmed in Northern Ireland using mostly British actors in their own timezone since they'd be asleep when we or America watch it, but without waiting months for the tapes to be shipped over.
If you think geography is all that matters, you belong back in the 1950s, and its no wonder such ideas from the 1950s aren't working in the 21st century.
You do wonder how much longer they can go on like this. The United States of Canada Vs Jesusland meme has never seemed so pertinent.
No market for a piece stating the likely truth that Biden will, in fact, probably stand. Far more for puff pieces hyping Newsom, Michelle Obama or whichever Democrat wannabe the journalist wants to promote.
@Casino_Royale If he does die it'll be Harris.
The did do a risk assessment, didn't they?
He's done a sterling job in supporting Ukraine, and building cross-party support for that support over there (no mean thing to achieve, especially when Trump responded to Putin's latest invasion last year a "genius" move).
He may be too old to realistically serve another 5.5 years from here, or he may not, but either way he has led America more adroitly and better than any of his 21st century predecessors. Including Obama, who was very weak on Putin too over Crimea and more.
Disturbing and frightening footage of the missile strike on the Reikartz hotel in Zaporizhzhia yesterday. Little children taking cover and in panic after a missile hit the hotel.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1689974664817246208?s=20
But he is shrewd, which is what matters most.
It's a while since we've had a shrewd PM. Perhaps since Major.
But in the latest sign of there not being a God he looks robust and healthy.
Bibby Stockholm project running like clockwork I see.
So some Tory MPs are demanding "pushback" is on the agenda again.
There is absolutely no room for complacency about Biden’s prospects.
https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1688997804528508928
Has all the various migrant hotel accommodation been checked ?
Legionella spp. Colonization in Water Systems of Hotels Linked with Travel-Associated Legionnaires’ Disease
During 2011–2016, Greece was among the countries with the highest proportions of accommodations associated with a TALD cluster (Italy = 42.6%, Spain = 17.1%, France = 14.6%, Greece = 7.6%) [12]. Unfortunately, it was not possible for the authors to associate epidemiological data for Legionnaires’ disease with environmental investigation results.
Previous studies in Greek hotels that were not considered to be associated with Legionnaires’ disease cases have demonstrated Legionella colonization in hotels in Thessaly and Corfu in 2018, where 38 (75%) hotels were colonized by Legionella spp. [4]. Other studies revealed colonization rates of 86% in a 1989 study, 21% in 2007 in hotels across Greece, and 33% in hotels in southwest Greece [4,6]. This percentage is also comparable to three similar studies in Turkey, where colonization rates ranged between approximately 60% and 92% [13,14]. Moreover, equivalent surveys in hotels in Italy showed colonization rates varying between 60% and 75% [15,16,17].
Number 2 just ain't happening.
#pedanticbetting.com
The problem was a combination of a number of children, no supervisory powers to stop them doing stuff and the local presence of unsavoury characters.
So, setting up a (in effect) a family home in the middle of nowhere, for 2 children, *might* counteract these effects. It would certainly appear to be an attempt to doo the diametric opposite of previous efforts.
How does this belong in a "parish-councils-are-a-menace" series, Mr Stocky? Surely the parish council has just convened a meeting of local inhabitants, who have come to find out what is happening.
Unless you mean that the parish council is a threat to the working of the larger council responsible for the children, and to the profits of the rip-off business.
It may well be a classic reaction to a previous problem.
I would say there are different varieties of capitalism to compare ourselves against, and learn from. We can’t precisely replicate another model, but there are always useful things to learn.
Rough ranking as follows:
Switzerland
USA
Scandinavia (ex Norway)
Germany/Austria
Netherlands
Canada/Australia/NZ
South Korea
France/Belgium
*UK*
Japan
Spain/Portugal
Italy
New Europe (Czech, Poland, Baltics, maybe Hungary)
Against this bundle, UK is middling and definitely bottom half.
Again, we come back to, how does a nation with north of 150 million eligible people end up with an octogenarian chiefly famous for his longevity as a Senator and a septuagenarian who is chiefly famous for his - ahem - interesting business activities and attempts to rig elections?
It's not even as though there aren't better candidates out there - Whitmer for the Dems and Haley for the Reps spring to mind.
But why do they keep coming back to these two?
It speaks of a profoundly broken system.
I’m not sure why his name keeps popping up.
There is a lot of money out there for children in care. Without naming names, I've worked with one person who gets funding of over £70k a year, and that's for non-residential support. I can imagine a multiplication by a factor of five for these sort of circumstances.
Whether that money is as well spent as it could be if the figure were slightly reduced and the rest redirected to other deserving cases is another question.
Blackadder: Not under Puritanism it won't.
On the original point. Yes, putting two kids in a massive house is totally bonkers. They’d be better off building something that looks like a boarding school on former military base.
Meanwhile, the barge has been evacuated, and rather large numbers are getting across the Channel in, er, small boats.
It's not going very well, is it?
This government really couldn't organise a piss-up in a brewery, to coin a cliché.
He turned out to be extremely talented. So the club sponsored him, free training etc.
Won a scholarship on the back of Henley wins to one of the top public schools and from there went onto a rowing scholarship at top US university. Unless something goes wrong, you'll see him in the international rowing scene.
Smaller sized care homes are less likely to have the problems that a massed barracks type place will have.
That said, the proposed debate between himself and DeSantis is both intriguing and weird, given that one of them is standing and one of them isn’t.
They really should just sink the boats like the Greeks, or pay the Libyan Coastguard to enslave the migrant. Like proper Europeans.
It is of course possible these are extra-complex cases that are being catered for.
What the Parish council is doing is engaging directly with the locals - explaining the situation and what will actually happen. This is human level government.
We need more of this - people who are local, who are your neighbours, organising, fixing up the world bit by bit. Doing it on a human level.
Rather than WhitehallGPT sends The Men From The Ministry to drop a bomb on your locality.
Sure, clipping the grass round the war memorial sounds laughable, but society is composed of lots of small bits.
If Trump is convicted in any of his cases next year however Biden equally has an excellent chance of re election. Polls show even many Republicans would not vote for Trump again if convicted of criminal charges so either he loses the nomination or the RNC change the rules pre convention to replace him with another candidate, probably Pence or DeSantis, if Trump is convicted.
Those 2 however would probably see Trump diehards stay home on polling day rather than vote for them or Biden while also being too hardline to have much appeal to suburban Independent swing voters who switched to Biden in 2020 after voting for Trump in 2016
You’d think that a government that wasn’t totally useless would screen individuals before sticking them on a barge .
Alternatively the water supply was already infected and the public are being lied to .
We also have a global city in London that only really NYC can rival
Is my rough approximation, but I don’t think it’s far out.
The comment I had from a doctor who'd worked from MF in Africa was that poor people from some countries were very often ill by our standards - infections, parasites etc. And that screening on entry was vital. For them.
I just don't make up fantasises about them, at odds to the actual things done.
EDIT : I notice no outrage among the right on about enslaving Subsaharan Africans in Libya, paid for by the EU. Why make up fantasies about mistreatment of migrants when you have that?
Should I put you down in the pro slavery group, then?
Betting PostFootball: yes, kickball returns and I'm sure we're all giddy with glee. Even better, random wibbling about it will occasionally appear on my blog.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2023/08/ligue-1-11-august-2023.html
A while ago I tipped Bournemouth and Brentford to each win at home, at 3. Also backed Clermont to win at 3.65 versus Monaco (the two sides finished last season 6 points apart so home odds appear on the long side).
Point 2: quite so. Also add the conditions they have in their trek,. shanty camps en route, etc. And the risk of cross infections in high density things like cruise liners and, indeed, barges.
We are behind France, Belgium, and South Korea, according to the IMF.
Either could be incapacitated - and Trump could conceivably be convicted, or so badly damaged by one or more of the ongoing criminal cases that the Republicans replace him.
You might think the latter event impossible, but it isn't.
The reporter hammered away at her, claiming that she was making the migrants feel bad. Yes, attacking the person helping the migrants. For helping to treat a nasty medical condition.
The reporter needed scabies, I think.
I predict an incoming anecdote about a bloke wot you met.
If Trump gets knocked out by his legal troubles, it’s not impossible that Biden agrees to stand aside.
The extreme right are not one nation Tories. They are not your friends!
Albanian, i fink...
1) Biden death from age related stuff. 80 years - 6% or so in the next year
2) Trump death from age related stuff. 77 years - 5% or so in the next year
P(A or
= 0.06 + 0.05 - (0.06*0.05)
= 0.11 - 0.003
= 0.107
10.7% probability than *one* of them keels over in the next year....
Someone tell me I am wrong, please?
But fantasising about plots to kill all the migrants runs up against the cold reality of what is happening and what is being done elsewhere. Or is out of sight, out of mind?
Otherwise you end up in a weird fantasy world. Bit like Corbyn or Donald Trump. Where The Other Guys *should* be doing The Bad Things you say.