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When’s Rishi going to risk a general election? – politicalbetting.com
When’s Rishi going to risk a general election? – politicalbetting.com
Ben Walker in the New Statesman has a piece on s subject we are going to hear a lot about in the coming months – when will Sunak decide to call a general election?
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Cheap, simple, efficient, and shows the Home Office under Herself as the authoritarian scum they are.
Doubt if he will, though.
https://youtu.be/3Ve4HV1lZ3c
The Major government of 1992-7 made a lot of changes that persist to this day. Large numbers of privatisations being the most obvious example. I'm not sure if Sunak's government is doing anything, but perhaps it would be better doing so than trying to write lurid Daily Mail headlines.
"We would have Stopped The Boats / Cut Waiting Times / Fixed the Economy if not for these woke leftie lawyers / doctors / workshy layabouts. Give us more time to finish the job".
It could be desperate. But they are already desperate. As "the war against green crap" drives them further away from a win the level of desperate and gimmickry will only increase further.
Everything is possible in politics. You need to wait for that magic moment which swings the campaign in your favour. Jennifer's Ear in 1992, "Nothing has Changed!!!" in 2017.
So just keep on hoping against hope that it's gonna get better.
What, if anything, has Sunak actually introduced of his own volition?
Fellow PBers, we need more prog rock quotes in this thread to illustrate. A pink moon is on its way, and its name is Serkeir...
Also freezing duty on beer in pubs. (But oddly, not other drinks therein.)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sardinia-fires-island-beaches-tourists-flee-bmf85n8nj
Sunak isn’t a visionary or a leader or someone with clearly defined goals for the country. He’s just a power politician - existing to be in office, rather than in governing.
It is a shell of a political party.
There is no fucking way the little shit will "go early". Has any PM ever done that when they are so fucked in the polls?
October 24th doesn't look that desperate (any later would) and gives Rishi exactly 2 years as PM...
That's about 2 milliRwandas in velocity of U-turn. Soon they'll be scrapping proposals before they make them.
The new PM did for January 1906 and Balfour's party were duly slaughtered, Balfour losing his own seat.
He would almost certainly have lost the party leadership as well, but for the fact almost none of his cabinet survived the debacle and the leader elected to replace him while out of Parliament (Joseph Chamberlain) had a stroke later the same year.
Does that count? Opinion polls weren't really a thing then, but all the indications were the Unionists would get a massive arse kicking. Heck, they even lost one of their safest seats, Oswestry, in a 1904 by-election which would be a sign of a government in terminal decline if it ever happened ag...ah.
Any later, and you’re campaigning in the dark. 2019 was an exception, in that Parliament had clearly broken down and was unable to resolve a major constitutional crisis. Short of another such crisis next year, the election will be before the clocks change.
Received wisdom beforehand always seemed to be to try and hold them in May/June. I assume because the days are long, you’re in the middle of bank holiday season and the weather is getting better - all hopey-positive mood music.
October is in the middle of the rundown to Christmas, often a busy time of the year, limited holidays, last bank holiday in August and days getting cooler and darker. Which is less optimal, one would think.
It's like the post-Uxbridge thing with motorists was one of those half hearted counter-offensives that has now, to coin a fashionable 2022/23 term, culminated.
If we knew on 16 June, as Pat Cummins prepared to bowl the first ball of the summer's Ashes feast to Zak Crawley, what we know now, we could have solved all the problems in the world with one simple £1 accumulator bet, a humble punt that could have paved the way for a new era of global peace, prosperity, harmony and well-scheduled, equitably financed Test cricket around the world.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/66384548
It will be late Autumn next year.
This avoids a summer of bad headlines about the local election results, at least for the activist community, but might actually make them worse with the higher turnout a GE would bring. It’s also only nine months away, and the inflation problem might not have been completely sorted by then.
At least in the UK, as opposed to the US, helping Ukraine and her people isn’t seen as a mainstream party-political issue.
And I say that as a driver of a high performance car.
Twenty is plenty in town.
Strangers passing in the street
By chance two separate glances meet
And I am you and what I see is me
And do I take you by the hand
And lead you through the land
And help me understand the best I can?
What a shame that more people do not understand how profound it is to understand "I am you and what I see is me", particularly those who wish to polarise politics and disparage the dignity and integrity of their opponents.
Liar, lawyer, mirror for ya. What's the difference?
There is a crown nomination committee which votes to nominate a bishop. The bishop would then be appointed by the King on advice of the prime minister (currently this would be the individual nominated). After the King appoints the bishop is then elected by the relevant College of Canons.
This is what I was referring to regarding a technical election as the individual has already been appointed.
China and India were both in Jeddah, as was Zelensky.
Everyone’s agreed to keep talking, and accepted that Ukraine’s territorial integrity needs to be maintained in any peace plan. To the Ukranians, that means accepting the post-1991 borders.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/06/china-backs-further-ukraine-peace-talks-saudi-arabia-summit
Let’s see how this plays into the next OPEC meeting. OPEC nations have been spooked by Russia’s attempt to use grain exports as leverage, and may well decide it’s time to start pumping to drive prices down and deny Putin foreign currency. Russian oil already trades at a large discount to the market price, with China and India the recipients.
That a dramatic reduction in the oil price helps Western nations with an inflation problem, is a positive by-product. We should all be lobbying OPEC to turn on the taps, and lobbying the EU to let Ukranian grain exports through to their ports.
Or the King has power because he approves all laws.
Although in one way it's different - I believe the College of Canons don't actually have the legal power to decline, which technically the PCP and the King could.
Is it safe to say that Alex Chalk is toast in Cheltenham and has no chance of being the next Tory leader? He seems clever and sane.
https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1688822346277105664?s=20
*Not my view, France is an absolute hell hole…**
**And yes, I know there is no requirement to claim asylum in the first safe country.
So they are left with a Putin who destabilises the region, who tried to bring economic chaos to Europe, and who is willing to starve millions around the world. That is no good for the Gulf states or China. No country can trust the current Putin government now.
Why would they want Putin to stay, given the way he has behaved? Why is it in their interest?
And yes, there is the risk that whoever replaces him after a Ukraine 'win' will be worse. But whoever replaces him will also be dealing with a rather different situation.
And what then? They would just come straight back again.
I know somebody who has the Opel variant and he reckons it's less reliable that his Maserati 430 which is a staggering admission.
Wasn't that a Johnson policy not a Sunak one?
The UK is the best country in the world, the Frogs are revolting.
Also.
Where are all them asylum seekers flocking from? Why do they want to come here rather than stay in France?
I daresay they haven't lost a moment's sleep over it.
But then we left the EU.
Well done to Turkey. by the way, with its Syrian refugees - they have housed 3.5 million Syrian refugees for over ten years, despite the obvious problems and conflicts that can cause.
MBS and Putin have had willy-waving contests before, such as during the pandemic, but the facts are that the Saudis can sustain lower oil prices way beyond the point at which the Russian economy is screwed more than it is already.
Xi will be looking forward to Putin’s demise, there’s a massive opportunity for Russia to become China’s bitch once VVP is out of the way.
We are - and will remain - a tolerant country, and plenty of critics of our current approach are tolerant but that doesn't extend to a total free pass. They are exasperated that we can't get a grip on this and think the traffickers and many of those coming across the channel are taking the piss, and exploiting loopholes.
The issue here it the optics: the Libs are far more interested in "the vibe" of a policy, how it looks and how it makes them feel, than they are pragmatic solutions.
If we towed back everyone to France (with their agreement) and took in a quota, to an agreed set of rules, whilst also helping other European countries enforce their borders to diminish future flows, it would go away.
The Gulf satrapies don't give a fuck one way or the other as their overwhelming focus is on internal security and repression.
As an example, why would China want the US to *increase* its capacity to make 155 shells?
At the same time as this government demonstrate daily that they don't know what to do and even their mad ideas don't get acted upon, the right insists that they are the only people with the solution.
https://youtu.be/OqSg7WO4tT4
https://twitter.com/Parody_PM/status/1688637119336509441
I shall exile myself to ConHome.