When’s Rishi going to risk a general election? – politicalbetting.com

System

When’s Rishi going to risk a general election? – politicalbetting.com

Ben Walker in the New Statesman has a piece on s subject we are going to hear a lot about in the coming months – when will Sunak decide to call a general election?

Read the full story here

Miklosvar

Is there a 2025 market? I can only find 2024 or later

Miklosvar

ID for voting in GEs only becomes law this October so we can probably rule out September.

Pro_Rata

The media drumbeat of election date speculation has yet to start in earnest, the mixed results in the by elections allowed minds to avoid such focus.

Miklosvar

For some reason I have 20 on 2023 at 2.5, not sure why that looked like a good idea

ydoethur

Miklosvar said:

ID for voting in GEs only becomes law this October so we can probably rule out September.

If Starmer wants the anorak vote he should offer to repeal that lunacy as his first act in office.

Cheap, simple, efficient, and shows the Home Office under Herself as the authoritarian scum they are.

Doubt if he will, though.

Miklosvar

Pro_Rata said:

The media drumbeat of election date speculation has yet to start in earnest, the mixed results in the by elections allowed minds to avoid such focus.

Your spoiling my hat trick is literally worse than Carey and Bairstow. It's all you will be remembered for.

Miklosvar

ydoethur said:

Miklosvar said:

ID for voting in GEs only becomes law this October so we can probably rule out September.

If Starmer wants the anorak vote he should offer to repeal that lunacy as his first act in office.

Cheap, simple, efficient, and shows the Home Office under Herself as the authoritarian scum they are.

Doubt if he will, though.

And chuck the hereditaries out of hol. And the Johnson appointees.

ydoethur

Miklosvar said:

Pro_Rata said:

The media drumbeat of election date speculation has yet to start in earnest, the mixed results in the by elections allowed minds to avoid such focus.

Your spoiling my hat trick is literally worse than Carey and Bairstow. It's all you will be remembered for.

Four in six is not bad though. Andrew Caddick was pretty pleased with that when destroying the Windies at Headingley in 2000.

https://youtu.be/3Ve4HV1lZ3c

ydoethur

Miklosvar said:

ydoethur said:

Miklosvar said:

ID for voting in GEs only becomes law this October so we can probably rule out September.

If Starmer wants the anorak vote he should offer to repeal that lunacy as his first act in office.

Cheap, simple, efficient, and shows the Home Office under Herself as the authoritarian scum they are.

Doubt if he will, though.

And chuck the hereditaries out of hol. And the Johnson appointees.

The irony being that the hereditaries are currently the only elected element of the House...

bondegezou

A Conservative blogger bemoans the state of the party: https://www.joxleywrites.jmoxley.co.uk/p/the-problem-with-the-conservative-afd

LostPassword

A government that looks doomed to defeat delays an election for as long as possible, particular if it has a healthy majority, so that it can introduce as much reform as it can before it loses office.

The Major government of 1992-7 made a lot of changes that persist to this day. Large numbers of privatisations being the most obvious example. I'm not sure if Sunak's government is doing anything, but perhaps it would be better doing so than trying to write lurid Daily Mail headlines.

RochdalePioneers

Now that Braverman has declared war on fellow lawyers, I can see how they could make a case for going as late as possible.

"We would have Stopped The Boats / Cut Waiting Times / Fixed the Economy if not for these woke leftie lawyers / doctors / workshy layabouts. Give us more time to finish the job".

It could be desperate. But they are already desperate. As "the war against green crap" drives them further away from a win the level of desperate and gimmickry will only increase further.

Everything is possible in politics. You need to wait for that magic moment which swings the campaign in your favour. Jennifer's Ear in 1992, "Nothing has Changed!!!" in 2017.

So just keep on hoping against hope that it's gonna get better.

LostPassword

To be fair to Sunak there was some sign, with the Windsor framework agreement, that his government was going to do some necessary things in the short time it had available to it. Perhaps there are other things being done that I haven't heard about in Ireland?

Northern_Al

There's absolutely zero chance of Sunak calling an earlier-than-necessary election unless the polls show a very significant narrowing of Labour's lead. And there's no sign of the polls narrowing. So he will hang on in quiet desperation, which is the English way, hoping that something turns up.

BartholomewRoberts

LostPassword said:

To be fair to Sunak there was some sign, with the Windsor framework agreement, that his government was going to do some necessary things in the short time it had available to it. Perhaps there are other things being done that I haven't heard about in Ireland?

The Windsor Agreement was just finishing what Truss and Boris had started with the threatened NI Protocol Bill to get the EU back to the negotiating table for reforms.

What, if anything, has Sunak actually introduced of his own volition?

RochdalePioneers

Northern_Al said:

There's absolutely zero chance of Sunak calling an earlier-than-necessary election unless the polls show a very significant narrowing of Labour's lead. And there's no sign of the polls narrowing. So he will hang on in quiet desperation, which is the English way, hoping that something turns up.

I quoted Genesis. You quoted Pink Floyd.

Fellow PBers, we need more prog rock quotes in this thread to illustrate. A pink moon is on its way, and its name is Serkeir...

Sunil_Prasannan

ydoethur said:

Miklosvar said:

ydoethur said:

Miklosvar said:

ID for voting in GEs only becomes law this October so we can probably rule out September.

If Starmer wants the anorak vote he should offer to repeal that lunacy as his first act in office.

Cheap, simple, efficient, and shows the Home Office under Herself as the authoritarian scum they are.

Doubt if he will, though.

And chuck the hereditaries out of hol. And the Johnson appointees.

The irony being that the hereditaries are currently the only elected element of the House...

House of Lords = House of Unelected Has-Beens!

Sunil_Prasannan

Miklosvar said:

Is there a 2025 market? I can only find 2024 or later

January 2025 would mean a Christmas election campaign = highly inconvenient.

Carnyx

BartholomewRoberts said:

LostPassword said:

To be fair to Sunak there was some sign, with the Windsor framework agreement, that his government was going to do some necessary things in the short time it had available to it. Perhaps there are other things being done that I haven't heard about in Ireland?

The Windsor Agreement was just finishing what Truss and Boris had started with the threatened NI Protocol Bill to get the EU back to the negotiating table for reforms.

What, if anything, has Sunak actually introduced of his own volition?

Ascension Island.

Also freezing duty on beer in pubs. (But oddly, not other drinks therein.)

Miklosvar

Portugal, sardinia on fire in ridiculous exaggeration, this happens every summer news

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sardinia-fires-island-beaches-tourists-flee-bmf85n8nj

Verulamius

ydoethur said:

Miklosvar said:

ydoethur said:

Miklosvar said:

ID for voting in GEs only becomes law this October so we can probably rule out September.

If Starmer wants the anorak vote he should offer to repeal that lunacy as his first act in office.

Cheap, simple, efficient, and shows the Home Office under Herself as the authoritarian scum they are.

Doubt if he will, though.

And chuck the hereditaries out of hol. And the Johnson appointees.

The irony being that the hereditaries are currently the only elected element of the House...

Technically Bishop are elected but only after being appointed by the King.

bondegezou

RochdalePioneers said:

Northern_Al said:

There's absolutely zero chance of Sunak calling an earlier-than-necessary election unless the polls show a very significant narrowing of Labour's lead. And there's no sign of the polls narrowing. So he will hang on in quiet desperation, which is the English way, hoping that something turns up.

I quoted Genesis. You quoted Pink Floyd.

Fellow PBers, we need more prog rock quotes in this thread to illustrate. A pink moon is on its way, and its name is Serkeir...

I'll try to later, but I'm currently rearranging my liver to the solid mental grace.

Northern_Al

bondegezou said:

A Conservative blogger bemoans the state of the party: https://www.joxleywrites.jmoxley.co.uk/p/the-problem-with-the-conservative-afd

That's an absolutely brilliant, concise summary of the current plight of the Tory Party and, by extension, the government. All concerned Tories should read it and weep.

bondegezou

Carnyx said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

LostPassword said:

To be fair to Sunak there was some sign, with the Windsor framework agreement, that his government was going to do some necessary things in the short time it had available to it. Perhaps there are other things being done that I haven't heard about in Ireland?

The Windsor Agreement was just finishing what Truss and Boris had started with the threatened NI Protocol Bill to get the EU back to the negotiating table for reforms.

What, if anything, has Sunak actually introduced of his own volition?

Ascension Island.

Also freezing duty on beer in pubs. (But oddly, not other drinks therein.)

I thought the Ascension Island policy had already been abandoned?

numbertwelve

BartholomewRoberts said:

LostPassword said:

To be fair to Sunak there was some sign, with the Windsor framework agreement, that his government was going to do some necessary things in the short time it had available to it. Perhaps there are other things being done that I haven't heard about in Ireland?

The Windsor Agreement was just finishing what Truss and Boris had started with the threatened NI Protocol Bill to get the EU back to the negotiating table for reforms.

What, if anything, has Sunak actually introduced of his own volition?

The Tory Party has hit a sort of inertia. Afraid of being seen as too radical so as to revisit the Truss disaster, too hollowed out of talent and ideas to institute reform, beholden to a 2019 manifesto a lot of them didn’t really care enough to implement given it’s main ingredient for them was “get Brexit done and win as many votes as possible.”

Sunak isn’t a visionary or a leader or someone with clearly defined goals for the country. He’s just a power politician - existing to be in office, rather than in governing.

It is a shell of a political party.

Miklosvar

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Miklosvar said:

Is there a 2025 market? I can only find 2024 or later

January 2025 would mean a Christmas election campaign = highly inconvenient.

Inconvenient for politicians and reporters, I would rather enjoy it. Things usually feel awfully flat in January. Bear in mind RS is an extremely rich Hindu, and possibly less fussed than you would think about messing up other people's xmas

Dura_Ace

RochdalePioneers said:

Northern_Al said:

There's absolutely zero chance of Sunak calling an earlier-than-necessary election unless the polls show a very significant narrowing of Labour's lead. And there's no sign of the polls narrowing. So he will hang on in quiet desperation, which is the English way, hoping that something turns up.

I quoted Genesis. You quoted Pink Floyd.

Fellow PBers, we need more prog rock quotes in this thread to illustrate. A pink moon is on its way, and its name is Serkeir...

My name is Panurge and I have come from hell.

There is no fucking way the little shit will "go early". Has any PM ever done that when they are so fucked in the polls?

Sandpit

On topic: Thursday 24th October, 2024.

BartholomewRoberts

RochdalePioneers said:

Northern_Al said:

There's absolutely zero chance of Sunak calling an earlier-than-necessary election unless the polls show a very significant narrowing of Labour's lead. And there's no sign of the polls narrowing. So he will hang on in quiet desperation, which is the English way, hoping that something turns up.

I quoted Genesis. You quoted Pink Floyd.

Fellow PBers, we need more prog rock quotes in this thread to illustrate. A pink moon is on its way, and its name is Serkeir...

Meanwhile Sunak is just slappin the base, while Labour Rush into the lead.

ydoethur

Verulamius said:

ydoethur said:

Miklosvar said:

ydoethur said:

Miklosvar said:

ID for voting in GEs only becomes law this October so we can probably rule out September.

If Starmer wants the anorak vote he should offer to repeal that lunacy as his first act in office.

Cheap, simple, efficient, and shows the Home Office under Herself as the authoritarian scum they are.

Doubt if he will, though.

And chuck the hereditaries out of hol. And the Johnson appointees.

The irony being that the hereditaries are currently the only elected element of the House...

Technically Bishop are elected but only after being appointed by the King.

Bishops are nominated, not elected, and apart from the Archbishops and the Bishops of London, Winchester and Durham they serve in order of seniority (with a temporary exception for female bishops).

eek

Sandpit said:

On topic: Thursday 24th October, 2024.

What Sandpit says because i've been saying it since October last year...

October 24th doesn't look that desperate (any later would) and gives Rishi exactly 2 years as PM...

Miklosvar

bondegezou said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Northern_Al said:

There's absolutely zero chance of Sunak calling an earlier-than-necessary election unless the polls show a very significant narrowing of Labour's lead. And there's no sign of the polls narrowing. So he will hang on in quiet desperation, which is the English way, hoping that something turns up.

I quoted Genesis. You quoted Pink Floyd.

Fellow PBers, we need more prog rock quotes in this thread to illustrate. A pink moon is on its way, and its name is Serkeir...

I'll try to later, but I'm currently rearranging my liver to the solid mental grace.

I never understood why JT thought thick as a brick was *parody* prog rock when that sort of thing is for real.

Carnyx

bondegezou said:

Carnyx said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

LostPassword said:

To be fair to Sunak there was some sign, with the Windsor framework agreement, that his government was going to do some necessary things in the short time it had available to it. Perhaps there are other things being done that I haven't heard about in Ireland?

The Windsor Agreement was just finishing what Truss and Boris had started with the threatened NI Protocol Bill to get the EU back to the negotiating table for reforms.

What, if anything, has Sunak actually introduced of his own volition?

Ascension Island.

Also freezing duty on beer in pubs. (But oddly, not other drinks therein.)

I thought the Ascension Island policy had already been abandoned?

Already!? Checks .... oh, I see, thanks. Mr R-M was basically admitting that it wasn't just a matter of phoning up the local Portakabin contractor. (Though I suspect the Americans Had A Word.)

That's about 2 milliRwandas in velocity of U-turn. Soon they'll be scrapping proposals before they make them.

eek

Miklosvar said:

For some reason I have 20 on 2023 at 2.5, not sure why that looked like a good idea

Depends when you placed the bet - in 2021 going to the polls in October 2023 after the new boundaries were set seemed a decent bet...

Northern_Al

RochdalePioneers said:

Northern_Al said:

There's absolutely zero chance of Sunak calling an earlier-than-necessary election unless the polls show a very significant narrowing of Labour's lead. And there's no sign of the polls narrowing. So he will hang on in quiet desperation, which is the English way, hoping that something turns up.

I quoted Genesis. You quoted Pink Floyd.

Fellow PBers, we need more prog rock quotes in this thread to illustrate. A pink moon is on its way, and its name is Serkeir...

SKS is King Crimson, obviously. Although at least one fellow poster would be apoplectic at SKS being associated with anything reddish.

ydoethur

Dura_Ace said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Northern_Al said:

There's absolutely zero chance of Sunak calling an earlier-than-necessary election unless the polls show a very significant narrowing of Labour's lead. And there's no sign of the polls narrowing. So he will hang on in quiet desperation, which is the English way, hoping that something turns up.

I quoted Genesis. You quoted Pink Floyd.

Fellow PBers, we need more prog rock quotes in this thread to illustrate. A pink moon is on its way, and its name is Serkeir...

My name is Panurge and I have come from hell.

There is no fucking way the little shit will "go early". Has any PM ever done that when they are so fucked in the polls?

Balfour resigned in December 1905, eighteen months before he had to, but he didn't call an election.

The new PM did for January 1906 and Balfour's party were duly slaughtered, Balfour losing his own seat.

He would almost certainly have lost the party leadership as well, but for the fact almost none of his cabinet survived the debacle and the leader elected to replace him while out of Parliament (Joseph Chamberlain) had a stroke later the same year.

Does that count? Opinion polls weren't really a thing then, but all the indications were the Unionists would get a massive arse kicking. Heck, they even lost one of their safest seats, Oswestry, in a 1904 by-election which would be a sign of a government in terminal decline if it ever happened ag...ah.

Northern_Al

Carnyx said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

LostPassword said:

To be fair to Sunak there was some sign, with the Windsor framework agreement, that his government was going to do some necessary things in the short time it had available to it. Perhaps there are other things being done that I haven't heard about in Ireland?

The Windsor Agreement was just finishing what Truss and Boris had started with the threatened NI Protocol Bill to get the EU back to the negotiating table for reforms.

What, if anything, has Sunak actually introduced of his own volition?

Ascension Island.

Also freezing duty on beer in pubs. (But oddly, not other drinks therein.)

The £2 cap on bus fares is the only really good thing that Sunak's government has done.

Sandpit

eek said:

Sandpit said:

On topic: Thursday 24th October, 2024.

What Sandpit says because i've been saying it since October last year...

October 24th doesn't look that desperate (any later would) and gives Rishi exactly 2 years as PM...

The Hallowe’en election jokes write themselves, and calling an election the week after the clocks go back, perhaps one of the most depressing weeks of the year, would be ‘brave’, in Sir Humprey speak.

Any later, and you’re campaigning in the dark. 2019 was an exception, in that Parliament had clearly broken down and was unable to resolve a major constitutional crisis. Short of another such crisis next year, the election will be before the clocks change.

numbertwelve

Sandpit said:

eek said:

Sandpit said:

On topic: Thursday 24th October, 2024.

What Sandpit says because i've been saying it since October last year...

October 24th doesn't look that desperate (any later would) and gives Rishi exactly 2 years as PM...

The Hallowe’en election jokes write themselves, and calling an election the week after the clocks go back, perhaps one of the most depressing weeks of the year, would be ‘brave’, in Sir Humprey speak.

Any later, and you’re campaigning in the dark. 2019 was an exception, in that Parliament had clearly broken down and was unable to resolve a major constitutional crisis. Short of another such crisis next year, the election will be before the clocks change.

I think it will be October, and it will be fascinating to see if that becomes the norm for elections moving forwards.

Received wisdom beforehand always seemed to be to try and hold them in May/June. I assume because the days are long, you’re in the middle of bank holiday season and the weather is getting better - all hopey-positive mood music.

October is in the middle of the rundown to Christmas, often a busy time of the year, limited holidays, last bank holiday in August and days getting cooler and darker. Which is less optimal, one would think.

TimS

Funny how political sentiment oscillates just like weather. At the weekend it seemed, for no obvious concrete reason, like the Tories were due for a week or two of renewed decline and pessimism, and hey presto that's exactly the mood music this week.

It's like the post-Uxbridge thing with motorists was one of those half hearted counter-offensives that has now, to coin a fashionable 2022/23 term, culminated.

noneoftheabove

Northern_Al said:

Carnyx said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

LostPassword said:

To be fair to Sunak there was some sign, with the Windsor framework agreement, that his government was going to do some necessary things in the short time it had available to it. Perhaps there are other things being done that I haven't heard about in Ireland?

The Windsor Agreement was just finishing what Truss and Boris had started with the threatened NI Protocol Bill to get the EU back to the negotiating table for reforms.

What, if anything, has Sunak actually introduced of his own volition?

Ascension Island.

Also freezing duty on beer in pubs. (But oddly, not other drinks therein.)

The £2 cap on bus fares is the only really good thing that Sunak's government has done.

No, I am not having that. The sackings of Raab, Williamson and Zahawi too. Of course outweighed by the idiocy of appointing and backing them but the sackings still a massive plus.

ydoethur

Completely off topic, but this is quite funny.

If we knew on 16 June, as Pat Cummins prepared to bowl the first ball of the summer's Ashes feast to Zak Crawley, what we know now, we could have solved all the problems in the world with one simple £1 accumulator bet, a humble punt that could have paved the way for a new era of global peace, prosperity, harmony and well-scheduled, equitably financed Test cricket around the world.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/66384548

Casino_Royale

It's worth noting this parliament hasn't even run 4 years yet.

It will be late Autumn next year.

Sandpit

The only other date that might make sense, would be Thursday 2nd May 2024, co-incident with the local elections.

This avoids a summer of bad headlines about the local election results, at least for the activist community, but might actually make them worse with the higher turnout a GE would bring. It’s also only nine months away, and the inflation problem might not have been completely sorted by then.

At least in the UK, as opposed to the US, helping Ukraine and her people isn’t seen as a mainstream party-political issue.

ydoethur

noneoftheabove said:

Northern_Al said:

Carnyx said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

LostPassword said:

To be fair to Sunak there was some sign, with the Windsor framework agreement, that his government was going to do some necessary things in the short time it had available to it. Perhaps there are other things being done that I haven't heard about in Ireland?

The Windsor Agreement was just finishing what Truss and Boris had started with the threatened NI Protocol Bill to get the EU back to the negotiating table for reforms.

What, if anything, has Sunak actually introduced of his own volition?

Ascension Island.

Also freezing duty on beer in pubs. (But oddly, not other drinks therein.)

The £2 cap on bus fares is the only really good thing that Sunak's government has done.

No, I am not having that. The sackings of Raab, Williamson and Zahawi too. Of course outweighed by the idiocy of appointing and backing them but the sackings still a massive plus.

I liked that post, but then I rethought. I'm not going to say the sackings are a good thing until Braverman and Gibb have joined the procession.

Anabobazina

Let’s make all residential areas 20mph.

And I say that as a driver of a high performance car.

Twenty is plenty in town.

Dura_Ace

Carnyx said:

bondegezou said:

Carnyx said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

LostPassword said:

To be fair to Sunak there was some sign, with the Windsor framework agreement, that his government was going to do some necessary things in the short time it had available to it. Perhaps there are other things being done that I haven't heard about in Ireland?

The Windsor Agreement was just finishing what Truss and Boris had started with the threatened NI Protocol Bill to get the EU back to the negotiating table for reforms.

What, if anything, has Sunak actually introduced of his own volition?

Ascension Island.

Also freezing duty on beer in pubs. (But oddly, not other drinks therein.)

I thought the Ascension Island policy had already been abandoned?

Already!? Checks .... oh, I see, thanks. Mr R-M was basically admitting that it wasn't just a matter of phoning up the local Portakabin contractor. (Though I suspect the Americans Had A Word.)

The tories knew from the start that the USSF are unlikely to stand for thousands of disgruntled randoms roaming around Wideawake. They just threw it out there to try to generate a day or two's worth of headlines that makes it look they are doing something about the boats. That's all there is to it. The tories are now incapable of considering any greater planning horizon than tomorrow's Telegraph.

Nigel_Foremain

Northern_Al said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Northern_Al said:

There's absolutely zero chance of Sunak calling an earlier-than-necessary election unless the polls show a very significant narrowing of Labour's lead. And there's no sign of the polls narrowing. So he will hang on in quiet desperation, which is the English way, hoping that something turns up.

I quoted Genesis. You quoted Pink Floyd.

Fellow PBers, we need more prog rock quotes in this thread to illustrate. A pink moon is on its way, and its name is Serkeir...

SKS is King Crimson, obviously. Although at least one fellow poster would be apoplectic at SKS being associated with anything reddish.

This is a piece of pure poetry from Pink Floyd:

Strangers passing in the street
By chance two separate glances meet
And I am you and what I see is me
And do I take you by the hand
And lead you through the land
And help me understand the best I can?


What a shame that more people do not understand how profound it is to understand "I am you and what I see is me", particularly those who wish to polarise politics and disparage the dignity and integrity of their opponents.

Scott_xP

Northern_Al said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Northern_Al said:

There's absolutely zero chance of Sunak calling an earlier-than-necessary election unless the polls show a very significant narrowing of Labour's lead. And there's no sign of the polls narrowing. So he will hang on in quiet desperation, which is the English way, hoping that something turns up.

I quoted Genesis. You quoted Pink Floyd.

Fellow PBers, we need more prog rock quotes in this thread to illustrate. A pink moon is on its way, and its name is Serkeir...

SKS is King Crimson, obviously.

And Richi is the Flying (Chocolate) Teapot

Nigel_Foremain

Dura_Ace said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Northern_Al said:

There's absolutely zero chance of Sunak calling an earlier-than-necessary election unless the polls show a very significant narrowing of Labour's lead. And there's no sign of the polls narrowing. So he will hang on in quiet desperation, which is the English way, hoping that something turns up.

I quoted Genesis. You quoted Pink Floyd.

Fellow PBers, we need more prog rock quotes in this thread to illustrate. A pink moon is on its way, and its name is Serkeir...

My name is Panurge and I have come from hell.

There is no fucking way the little shit will "go early". Has any PM ever done that when they are so fucked in the polls?

"There is no fucking way the little shit will "go early" ". Are you referring to your friend Putin?

Nigel_Foremain

Northern_Al said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Northern_Al said:

There's absolutely zero chance of Sunak calling an earlier-than-necessary election unless the polls show a very significant narrowing of Labour's lead. And there's no sign of the polls narrowing. So he will hang on in quiet desperation, which is the English way, hoping that something turns up.

I quoted Genesis. You quoted Pink Floyd.

Fellow PBers, we need more prog rock quotes in this thread to illustrate. A pink moon is on its way, and its name is Serkeir...

SKS is King Crimson, obviously. Although at least one fellow poster would be apoplectic at SKS being associated with anything reddish.

A great bit of prog metal for SKS from Tool:

Liar, lawyer, mirror for ya. What's the difference?

numbertwelve

TimS said:

Funny how political sentiment oscillates just like weather. At the weekend it seemed, for no obvious concrete reason, like the Tories were due for a week or two of renewed decline and pessimism, and hey presto that's exactly the mood music this week.

It's like the post-Uxbridge thing with motorists was one of those half hearted counter-offensives that has now, to coin a fashionable 2022/23 term, culminated.

They’re trying out attack lines for the election though. I am absolutely convinced they’re going to go for the “wokey lefty lawyer Kier is going to take away your car and put up your energy bills and make your life harder. And trans people.”

Verulamius

ydoethur said:

Verulamius said:

ydoethur said:

Miklosvar said:

ydoethur said:

Miklosvar said:

ID for voting in GEs only becomes law this October so we can probably rule out September.

If Starmer wants the anorak vote he should offer to repeal that lunacy as his first act in office.

Cheap, simple, efficient, and shows the Home Office under Herself as the authoritarian scum they are.

Doubt if he will, though.

And chuck the hereditaries out of hol. And the Johnson appointees.

The irony being that the hereditaries are currently the only elected element of the House...

Technically Bishop are elected but only after being appointed by the King.

Bishops are nominated, not elected, and apart from the Archbishops and the Bishops of London, Winchester and Durham they serve in order of seniority (with a temporary exception for female bishops).

The process choosing Church of England Bishops is very quirky.

There is a crown nomination committee which votes to nominate a bishop. The bishop would then be appointed by the King on advice of the prime minister (currently this would be the individual nominated). After the King appoints the bishop is then elected by the relevant College of Canons.

This is what I was referring to regarding a technical election as the individual has already been appointed.

CJtheOptimist

Northern_Al said:

bondegezou said:

A Conservative blogger bemoans the state of the party: https://www.joxleywrites.jmoxley.co.uk/p/the-problem-with-the-conservative-afd

That's an absolutely brilliant, concise summary of the current plight of the Tory Party and, by extension, the government. All concerned Tories should read it and weep.

I'd say it was fair assessment, but certainly not concise; maybe he was using repetition to make his point, but it does come across as a bit "let's bash the oldies/boomers", so I'm guessing he's a younger person. They do see to be a party that stumped for ideas though, and just going through the motions of governing. What concerns me is that I'm not seeing any positive ideas or proposals on how to deal with the country's problems from any of the other parties. One can only hope that they are simply keeping their cards to their chest until campaign time. The problem is that if the government drags things out for another 18 months the problems are only going to get worse, and harder to fix. Are they hoping that salting the earth for the next government gives them a better chance of coming back in 2028 or whenever?

Sandpit

Some positive noises coming out of the Saudi summit on Ukraine at the weekend.

China and India were both in Jeddah, as was Zelensky.

Everyone’s agreed to keep talking, and accepted that Ukraine’s territorial integrity needs to be maintained in any peace plan. To the Ukranians, that means accepting the post-1991 borders.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/06/china-backs-further-ukraine-peace-talks-saudi-arabia-summit

Let’s see how this plays into the next OPEC meeting. OPEC nations have been spooked by Russia’s attempt to use grain exports as leverage, and may well decide it’s time to start pumping to drive prices down and deny Putin foreign currency. Russian oil already trades at a large discount to the market price, with China and India the recipients.

That a dramatic reduction in the oil price helps Western nations with an inflation problem, is a positive by-product. We should all be lobbying OPEC to turn on the taps, and lobbying the EU to let Ukranian grain exports through to their ports.

ydoethur

Verulamius said:

ydoethur said:

Verulamius said:

ydoethur said:

Miklosvar said:

ydoethur said:

Miklosvar said:

ID for voting in GEs only becomes law this October so we can probably rule out September.

If Starmer wants the anorak vote he should offer to repeal that lunacy as his first act in office.

Cheap, simple, efficient, and shows the Home Office under Herself as the authoritarian scum they are.

Doubt if he will, though.

And chuck the hereditaries out of hol. And the Johnson appointees.

The irony being that the hereditaries are currently the only elected element of the House...

Technically Bishop are elected but only after being appointed by the King.

Bishops are nominated, not elected, and apart from the Archbishops and the Bishops of London, Winchester and Durham they serve in order of seniority (with a temporary exception for female bishops).

The process choosing Church of England Bishops is very quirky.

There is a crown nomination committee which votes to nominate a bishop. The bishop would then be appointed by the King on advice of the prime minister (currently this would be the individual nominated). After the King appoints the bishop is then elected by the relevant College of Canons.

This is what I was referring to regarding a technical election as the individual has already been appointed.

Hmmm. That is a bit like saying Conservative leaders were elected from 1846 to 1965 because once the name had been fixed they were officially voted on by the parliamentary party.

Or the King has power because he approves all laws.

Although in one way it's different - I believe the College of Canons don't actually have the legal power to decline, which technically the PCP and the King could.

Cicero

Northern_Al said:

Carnyx said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

LostPassword said:

To be fair to Sunak there was some sign, with the Windsor framework agreement, that his government was going to do some necessary things in the short time it had available to it. Perhaps there are other things being done that I haven't heard about in Ireland?

The Windsor Agreement was just finishing what Truss and Boris had started with the threatened NI Protocol Bill to get the EU back to the negotiating table for reforms.

What, if anything, has Sunak actually introduced of his own volition?

Ascension Island.

Also freezing duty on beer in pubs. (But oddly, not other drinks therein.)

The £2 cap on bus fares is the only really good thing that Sunak's government has done.

But the resulting fall in the number of services, because economics, is less than optimal. Fare caps, or free public transport, as in Tallinn, needs proper state support, which it is not getting.

FrankBooth

Nigel_Foremain said:

Dura_Ace said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Northern_Al said:

There's absolutely zero chance of Sunak calling an earlier-than-necessary election unless the polls show a very significant narrowing of Labour's lead. And there's no sign of the polls narrowing. So he will hang on in quiet desperation, which is the English way, hoping that something turns up.

I quoted Genesis. You quoted Pink Floyd.

Fellow PBers, we need more prog rock quotes in this thread to illustrate. A pink moon is on its way, and its name is Serkeir...

My name is Panurge and I have come from hell.

There is no fucking way the little shit will "go early". Has any PM ever done that when they are so fucked in the polls?

"There is no fucking way the little shit will "go early" ". Are you referring to your friend Putin?

Come on. Whatever you say about mad Vlad the genocidal, warmongering sociopath, at least he's not a Tory.

Is it safe to say that Alex Chalk is toast in Cheltenham and has no chance of being the next Tory leader? He seems clever and sane.

Miklosvar

Anabobazina said:

Let’s make all residential areas 20mph.

And I say that as a driver of a high performance car.

Twenty is plenty in town.

Muy retro, don't think I have heard the expression high performance car since about the time the first golf GTI came out.

Theuniondivvie

This is the new great white hope of Toryism?



https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1688822346277105664?s=20

Sandpit

Miklosvar said:

Anabobazina said:

Let’s make all residential areas 20mph.

And I say that as a driver of a high performance car.

Twenty is plenty in town.

Muy retro, don't think I have heard the expression high performance car since about the time the first golf GTI came out.

The Lotus Carton created quite a stir in the early ‘90s, but these days Tesla calls it’s top-of-the line cars “performance”, and they’re considerably faster than a 30-year-old saloon with a big engine.

londonpubman

The GE will either be in Q2 (April or May) or Q4 (Oct) 2024, probably the latter.

Theuniondivvie

Miklosvar said:

Anabobazina said:

Let’s make all residential areas 20mph.

And I say that as a driver of a high performance car.

Twenty is plenty in town.

Muy retro, don't think I have heard the expression high performance car since about the time the first golf GTI came out.

Driving a high performance car well is much like making love to a beautiful woman, or so I've heard.

Sandpit

Theuniondivvie said:

This is the new great white hope of Toryism?



https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1688822346277105664?s=20

I’ve said it before, but many voters don’t understand why we can’t simply put irregular arrivals on a bus to Dover, and back from whence they came on the first available ferry.

Eabhal

Theuniondivvie said:

This is the new great white hope of Toryism?



https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1688822346277105664?s=20

The Tory pro-crash, pro-ratrun, pro-pollution agenda would work much better if they had Anderson as leader rather than Sunak, to be fair.

turbotubbs

Sandpit said:

Theuniondivvie said:

This is the new great white hope of Toryism?



https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1688822346277105664?s=20

I’ve said it before, but many voters don’t understand why we can’t simply put irregular arrivals on a bus to Dover, and back from whence they came on the first available ferry.

And right thinking people on pb may not agree, but an awful lot of people in the U.K. don’t believe someone arriving from France is coming from an unsafe country.*


*Not my view, France is an absolute hell hole…**

**And yes, I know there is no requirement to claim asylum in the first safe country.

FrankBooth

Sandpit said:

Some positive noises coming out of the Saudi summit on Ukraine at the weekend.

China and India were both in Jeddah, as was Zelensky.

Everyone’s agreed to keep talking, and accepted that Ukraine’s territorial integrity needs to be maintained in any peace plan. To the Ukranians, that means accepting the post-1991 borders.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/06/china-backs-further-ukraine-peace-talks-saudi-arabia-summit

Let’s see how this plays into the next OPEC meeting. OPEC nations have been spooked by Russia’s attempt to use grain exports as leverage, and may well decide it’s time to start pumping to drive prices down and deny Putin foreign currency. Russian oil already trades at a large discount to the market price, with China and India the recipients.

That a dramatic reduction in the oil price helps Western nations with an inflation problem, is a positive by-product. We should all be lobbying OPEC to turn on the taps, and lobbying the EU to let Ukranian grain exports through to their ports.

The food price issue makes sense in focusing minds. However let's not kid ourselves. Neither China nor the OPEC countries want a pro-western government in Moscow. Perhaps the war/Putin are seen as more trouble than they are worth.

malcolmg

Anabobazina said:

Let’s make all residential areas 20mph.

And I say that as a driver of a high performance car.

Twenty is plenty in town.

Bollox, depends on the road , pavements , etc

DecrepiterJohnL

Sunil_Prasannan said:

ydoethur said:

Miklosvar said:

ydoethur said:

Miklosvar said:

ID for voting in GEs only becomes law this October so we can probably rule out September.

If Starmer wants the anorak vote he should offer to repeal that lunacy as his first act in office.

Cheap, simple, efficient, and shows the Home Office under Herself as the authoritarian scum they are.

Doubt if he will, though.

And chuck the hereditaries out of hol. And the Johnson appointees.

The irony being that the hereditaries are currently the only elected element of the House...

House of Lords = House of Unelected Has-Beens!

House of Unelected Never-Wases unless you know something about Baroness Owen of Alderley Edge.

numbertwelve

Sandpit said:

Theuniondivvie said:

This is the new great white hope of Toryism?



https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1688822346277105664?s=20

I’ve said it before, but many voters don’t understand why we can’t simply put irregular arrivals on a bus to Dover, and back from whence they came on the first available ferry.

I think most voters just want a government who will do what they say they will on immigration rather than just spewing performative sound bites without addressing any of the underlying issues (demotivated and poorly funded and supported border force, lack of multilateral engagement, unclear rules and processes, backlogs, lack of community engagement etc)

malcolmg

Nigel_Foremain said:

Dura_Ace said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Northern_Al said:

There's absolutely zero chance of Sunak calling an earlier-than-necessary election unless the polls show a very significant narrowing of Labour's lead. And there's no sign of the polls narrowing. So he will hang on in quiet desperation, which is the English way, hoping that something turns up.

I quoted Genesis. You quoted Pink Floyd.

Fellow PBers, we need more prog rock quotes in this thread to illustrate. A pink moon is on its way, and its name is Serkeir...

My name is Panurge and I have come from hell.

There is no fucking way the little shit will "go early". Has any PM ever done that when they are so fucked in the polls?

"There is no fucking way the little shit will "go early" ". Are you referring to your friend Putin?

Certainly not you he was referring to or it would have been "humungous steaming shit"

JosiasJessop

FrankBooth said:

Sandpit said:

Some positive noises coming out of the Saudi summit on Ukraine at the weekend.

China and India were both in Jeddah, as was Zelensky.

Everyone’s agreed to keep talking, and accepted that Ukraine’s territorial integrity needs to be maintained in any peace plan. To the Ukranians, that means accepting the post-1991 borders.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/06/china-backs-further-ukraine-peace-talks-saudi-arabia-summit

Let’s see how this plays into the next OPEC meeting. OPEC nations have been spooked by Russia’s attempt to use grain exports as leverage, and may well decide it’s time to start pumping to drive prices down and deny Putin foreign currency. Russian oil already trades at a large discount to the market price, with China and India the recipients.

That a dramatic reduction in the oil price helps Western nations with an inflation problem, is a positive by-product. We should all be lobbying OPEC to turn on the taps, and lobbying the EU to let Ukranian grain exports through to their ports.

The food price issue makes sense in focusing minds. However let's not kid ourselves. Neither China nor the OPEC countries want a pro-western government in Moscow. Perhaps the war/Putin are seen as more trouble than they are worth.

They won't want a pro-western government in Moscow. But they are in the same situation we are: we (and they) have essentially no say in what a future Russian government might be like, and which way it may lean.

So they are left with a Putin who destabilises the region, who tried to bring economic chaos to Europe, and who is willing to starve millions around the world. That is no good for the Gulf states or China. No country can trust the current Putin government now.

Why would they want Putin to stay, given the way he has behaved? Why is it in their interest?

And yes, there is the risk that whoever replaces him after a Ukraine 'win' will be worse. But whoever replaces him will also be dealing with a rather different situation.

OnlyLivingBoy

May or October next year, most likely. I'd go with October. He's going to lose whenever he calls it.

Fairliered

Would it be in the Conservatives interest to call the election date in order to disrupt party conference season, e.g. Thursday 5 October?

DecrepiterJohnL

Anabobazina said:

Let’s make all residential areas 20mph.

And I say that as a driver of a high performance car.

Twenty is plenty in town.

As explained before, as a pedestrian I find 20mph too low as it makes crossing the road harder. However, that bird has flown and 20 it is. One effect (or is it cause?) might be that pedestrians now seem more likely to spill out into the road, although come to think of it, that might instead be due to the new rules about cars giving way to bikes giving way to pedestrians.

RochdalePioneers

Sandpit said:

Theuniondivvie said:

This is the new great white hope of Toryism?



https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1688822346277105664?s=20

I’ve said it before, but many voters don’t understand why we can’t simply put irregular arrivals on a bus to Dover, and back from whence they came on the first available ferry.

We probably could. Hello small boat people, your bus is over here. Stick the coach on the ferry, dump them in the centre of Calais.

And what then? They would just come straight back again.

Dura_Ace

Sandpit said:

Miklosvar said:

Anabobazina said:

Let’s make all residential areas 20mph.

And I say that as a driver of a high performance car.

Twenty is plenty in town.

Muy retro, don't think I have heard the expression high performance car since about the time the first golf GTI came out.

The Lotus Carton created quite a stir in the early ‘90s

Total commercial disaster for everyone involved, including the customers.

I know somebody who has the Opel variant and he reckons it's less reliable that his Maserati 430 which is a staggering admission.

Miklosvar

RochdalePioneers said:

Sandpit said:

Theuniondivvie said:

This is the new great white hope of Toryism?



https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1688822346277105664?s=20

I’ve said it before, but many voters don’t understand why we can’t simply put irregular arrivals on a bus to Dover, and back from whence they came on the first available ferry.

We probably could. Hello small boat people, your bus is over here. Stick the coach on the ferry, dump them in the centre of Calais.

And what then? They would just come straight back again.

You will find that French border control is a non-return valve.

Casino_Royale

Sandpit said:

Theuniondivvie said:

This is the new great white hope of Toryism?



https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1688822346277105664?s=20

I’ve said it before, but many voters don’t understand why we can’t simply put irregular arrivals on a bus to Dover, and back from whence they came on the first available ferry.

The way Robinson phrases the question almost perfectly encapsulates the problem we have with the Libs on this subject.

rottenborough

Cicero said:

Northern_Al said:

Carnyx said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

LostPassword said:

To be fair to Sunak there was some sign, with the Windsor framework agreement, that his government was going to do some necessary things in the short time it had available to it. Perhaps there are other things being done that I haven't heard about in Ireland?

The Windsor Agreement was just finishing what Truss and Boris had started with the threatened NI Protocol Bill to get the EU back to the negotiating table for reforms.

What, if anything, has Sunak actually introduced of his own volition?

Ascension Island.

Also freezing duty on beer in pubs. (But oddly, not other drinks therein.)

The £2 cap on bus fares is the only really good thing that Sunak's government has done.

But the resulting fall in the number of services, because economics, is less than optimal. Fare caps, or free public transport, as in Tallinn, needs proper state support, which it is not getting.

"The £2 cap on bus fares is the only really good thing that Sunak's government has done"

Wasn't that a Johnson policy not a Sunak one?

Theuniondivvie

turbotubbs said:

Sandpit said:

Theuniondivvie said:

This is the new great white hope of Toryism?



https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1688822346277105664?s=20

I’ve said it before, but many voters don’t understand why we can’t simply put irregular arrivals on a bus to Dover, and back from whence they came on the first available ferry.

And right thinking people on pb may not agree, but an awful lot of people in the U.K. don’t believe someone arriving from France is coming from an unsafe country.*


*Not my view, France is an absolute hell hole…**

**And yes, I know there is no requirement to claim asylum in the first safe country.

The paradox of the average bigot.

The UK is the best country in the world, the Frogs are revolting.

Also.

Where are all them asylum seekers flocking from? Why do they want to come here rather than stay in France?

I daresay they haven't lost a moment's sleep over it.

bondegezou

Sandpit said:

Theuniondivvie said:

This is the new great white hope of Toryism?



https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1688822346277105664?s=20

I’ve said it before, but many voters don’t understand why we can’t simply put irregular arrivals on a bus to Dover, and back from whence they came on the first available ferry.

We used to, at least some of them, more or less, in a somewhat longer process...

But then we left the EU.

Nigelb

.

Theuniondivvie said:

Miklosvar said:

Anabobazina said:

Let’s make all residential areas 20mph.

And I say that as a driver of a high performance car.

Twenty is plenty in town.

Muy retro, don't think I have heard the expression high performance car since about the time the first golf GTI came out.

Driving a high performance car well is much like making love to a beautiful woman, or so I've heard.

Have to watch out for the rear end getting away from you ?

RochdalePioneers

Miklosvar said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Sandpit said:

Theuniondivvie said:

This is the new great white hope of Toryism?



https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1688822346277105664?s=20

I’ve said it before, but many voters don’t understand why we can’t simply put irregular arrivals on a bus to Dover, and back from whence they came on the first available ferry.

We probably could. Hello small boat people, your bus is over here. Stick the coach on the ferry, dump them in the centre of Calais.

And what then? They would just come straight back again.

You will find that French border control is a non-return valve.

Surely the frogs would let them back in? Who do they think they are>? 17.4m people voted to stick small boat people on a bus to Calais etc etc.

JosiasJessop

Casino_Royale said:

Sandpit said:

Theuniondivvie said:

This is the new great white hope of Toryism?



https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1688822346277105664?s=20

I’ve said it before, but many voters don’t understand why we can’t simply put irregular arrivals on a bus to Dover, and back from whence they came on the first available ferry.

The way Robinson phrases the question almost perfectly encapsulates the problem we have with the Libs on this subject.

A problem is that current immigration, migration and refugees has altered massively over the last couple of decades. Whilst also remaining remarkably similar. Europe in particular has suffered from massive population movements (millions of people) in the past, and the systems and laws simply are not designed to cope with such numbers.

Well done to Turkey. by the way, with its Syrian refugees - they have housed 3.5 million Syrian refugees for over ten years, despite the obvious problems and conflicts that can cause.

Miklosvar

Casino_Royale said:

Sandpit said:

Theuniondivvie said:

This is the new great white hope of Toryism?



https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1688822346277105664?s=20

I’ve said it before, but many voters don’t understand why we can’t simply put irregular arrivals on a bus to Dover, and back from whence they came on the first available ferry.

The way Robinson phrases the question almost perfectly encapsulates the problem we have with the Libs on this subject.

True dat. It is absolutely shit journalism from Robinson.

Sandpit

FrankBooth said:

Sandpit said:

Some positive noises coming out of the Saudi summit on Ukraine at the weekend.

China and India were both in Jeddah, as was Zelensky.

Everyone’s agreed to keep talking, and accepted that Ukraine’s territorial integrity needs to be maintained in any peace plan. To the Ukranians, that means accepting the post-1991 borders.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/06/china-backs-further-ukraine-peace-talks-saudi-arabia-summit

Let’s see how this plays into the next OPEC meeting. OPEC nations have been spooked by Russia’s attempt to use grain exports as leverage, and may well decide it’s time to start pumping to drive prices down and deny Putin foreign currency. Russian oil already trades at a large discount to the market price, with China and India the recipients.

That a dramatic reduction in the oil price helps Western nations with an inflation problem, is a positive by-product. We should all be lobbying OPEC to turn on the taps, and lobbying the EU to let Ukranian grain exports through to their ports.

The food price issue makes sense in focusing minds. However let's not kid ourselves. Neither China nor the OPEC countries want a pro-western government in Moscow. Perhaps the war/Putin are seen as more trouble than they are worth.

OPEC countries are not exactly known for their abundance of agriculture, or self-sufficiency in food.

MBS and Putin have had willy-waving contests before, such as during the pandemic, but the facts are that the Saudis can sustain lower oil prices way beyond the point at which the Russian economy is screwed more than it is already.

Xi will be looking forward to Putin’s demise, there’s a massive opportunity for Russia to become China’s bitch once VVP is out of the way.

Casino_Royale

turbotubbs said:

Sandpit said:

Theuniondivvie said:

This is the new great white hope of Toryism?



https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1688822346277105664?s=20

I’ve said it before, but many voters don’t understand why we can’t simply put irregular arrivals on a bus to Dover, and back from whence they came on the first available ferry.

And right thinking people on pb may not agree, but an awful lot of people in the U.K. don’t believe someone arriving from France is coming from an unsafe country.*


*Not my view, France is an absolute hell hole…**

**And yes, I know there is no requirement to claim asylum in the first safe country.

It's a canard.

We are - and will remain - a tolerant country, and plenty of critics of our current approach are tolerant but that doesn't extend to a total free pass. They are exasperated that we can't get a grip on this and think the traffickers and many of those coming across the channel are taking the piss, and exploiting loopholes.

The issue here it the optics: the Libs are far more interested in "the vibe" of a policy, how it looks and how it makes them feel, than they are pragmatic solutions.

If we towed back everyone to France (with their agreement) and took in a quota, to an agreed set of rules, whilst also helping other European countries enforce their borders to diminish future flows, it would go away.

Miklosvar

Nigelb said:

.

Theuniondivvie said:

Miklosvar said:

Anabobazina said:

Let’s make all residential areas 20mph.

And I say that as a driver of a high performance car.

Twenty is plenty in town.

Muy retro, don't think I have heard the expression high performance car since about the time the first golf GTI came out.

Driving a high performance car well is much like making love to a beautiful woman, or so I've heard.

Have to watch out for the rear end getting away from you ?

Keep your hand off the knob, except when changing gear.

Dura_Ace

JosiasJessop said:

FrankBooth said:

Sandpit said:

Some positive noises coming out of the Saudi summit on Ukraine at the weekend.

China and India were both in Jeddah, as was Zelensky.

Everyone’s agreed to keep talking, and accepted that Ukraine’s territorial integrity needs to be maintained in any peace plan. To the Ukranians, that means accepting the post-1991 borders.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/06/china-backs-further-ukraine-peace-talks-saudi-arabia-summit

Let’s see how this plays into the next OPEC meeting. OPEC nations have been spooked by Russia’s attempt to use grain exports as leverage, and may well decide it’s time to start pumping to drive prices down and deny Putin foreign currency. Russian oil already trades at a large discount to the market price, with China and India the recipients.

That a dramatic reduction in the oil price helps Western nations with an inflation problem, is a positive by-product. We should all be lobbying OPEC to turn on the taps, and lobbying the EU to let Ukranian grain exports through to their ports.

The food price issue makes sense in focusing minds. However let's not kid ourselves. Neither China nor the OPEC countries want a pro-western government in Moscow. Perhaps the war/Putin are seen as more trouble than they are worth.

They won't want a pro-western government in Moscow. But they are in the same situation we are: we (and they) have essentially no say in what a future Russian government might be like, and which way it may lean.

So they are left with a Putin who destabilises the region, who tried to bring economic chaos to Europe, and who is willing to starve millions around the world. That is no good for the Gulf states or China. No country can trust the current Putin government now.

The SMO is excellent for China as it keeps the attention and logistics of the US and, to the limited extent that it matters, the EU tied up in the arse crack of Eastern Europe.

The Gulf satrapies don't give a fuck one way or the other as their overwhelming focus is on internal security and repression.

OnlyLivingBoy

Casino_Royale said:

Sandpit said:

Theuniondivvie said:

This is the new great white hope of Toryism?



https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1688822346277105664?s=20

I’ve said it before, but many voters don’t understand why we can’t simply put irregular arrivals on a bus to Dover, and back from whence they came on the first available ferry.

The way Robinson phrases the question almost perfectly encapsulates the problem we have with the Libs on this subject.

Nick Robinson (former Chair, Oxford University Conservative Association) is hardly a "Lib" (ooh we've gone full on MAGA on here have we, how delightful - will it be "Libtard" next?) besides, he was simply repeating back to Chalk things he had said himself about being a tolerant nation.

Miklosvar

RochdalePioneers said:

Miklosvar said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Sandpit said:

Theuniondivvie said:

This is the new great white hope of Toryism?



https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1688822346277105664?s=20

I’ve said it before, but many voters don’t understand why we can’t simply put irregular arrivals on a bus to Dover, and back from whence they came on the first available ferry.

We probably could. Hello small boat people, your bus is over here. Stick the coach on the ferry, dump them in the centre of Calais.

And what then? They would just come straight back again.

You will find that French border control is a non-return valve.

Surely the frogs would let them back in? Who do they think they are>? 17.4m people voted to stick small boat people on a bus to Calais etc etc.

Yes. I don't recall being asked for a visa when we landed in Normandy in '44.

JosiasJessop

Dura_Ace said:

JosiasJessop said:

FrankBooth said:

Sandpit said:

Some positive noises coming out of the Saudi summit on Ukraine at the weekend.

China and India were both in Jeddah, as was Zelensky.

Everyone’s agreed to keep talking, and accepted that Ukraine’s territorial integrity needs to be maintained in any peace plan. To the Ukranians, that means accepting the post-1991 borders.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/06/china-backs-further-ukraine-peace-talks-saudi-arabia-summit

Let’s see how this plays into the next OPEC meeting. OPEC nations have been spooked by Russia’s attempt to use grain exports as leverage, and may well decide it’s time to start pumping to drive prices down and deny Putin foreign currency. Russian oil already trades at a large discount to the market price, with China and India the recipients.

That a dramatic reduction in the oil price helps Western nations with an inflation problem, is a positive by-product. We should all be lobbying OPEC to turn on the taps, and lobbying the EU to let Ukranian grain exports through to their ports.

The food price issue makes sense in focusing minds. However let's not kid ourselves. Neither China nor the OPEC countries want a pro-western government in Moscow. Perhaps the war/Putin are seen as more trouble than they are worth.

They won't want a pro-western government in Moscow. But they are in the same situation we are: we (and they) have essentially no say in what a future Russian government might be like, and which way it may lean.

So they are left with a Putin who destabilises the region, who tried to bring economic chaos to Europe, and who is willing to starve millions around the world. That is no good for the Gulf states or China. No country can trust the current Putin government now.

The SMO is excellent for China as it keeps the attention and logistics of the US and, to the limited extent that it matters, the EU tied up in the arse crack of Eastern Europe.

The Gulf satrapies don't give a fuck one way or the other as their overwhelming focus is on internal security and repression.

I'd argue the opposite: it's bad for China as it's caused the US to look hard at its military strength, and stopped the constant draw-down in the US and other states.

As an example, why would China want the US to *increase* its capacity to make 155 shells?

RochdalePioneers

Casino_Royale said:

turbotubbs said:

Sandpit said:

Theuniondivvie said:

This is the new great white hope of Toryism?



https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1688822346277105664?s=20

I’ve said it before, but many voters don’t understand why we can’t simply put irregular arrivals on a bus to Dover, and back from whence they came on the first available ferry.

And right thinking people on pb may not agree, but an awful lot of people in the U.K. don’t believe someone arriving from France is coming from an unsafe country.*


*Not my view, France is an absolute hell hole…**

**And yes, I know there is no requirement to claim asylum in the first safe country.

It's a canard.

We are - and will remain - a tolerant country, and plenty of critics of our current approach are tolerant but that doesn't extend to a total free pass. They are exasperated that we can't get a grip on this and think the traffickers and many of those coming across the channel are taking the piss, and exploiting loopholes.

The issue here it the optics: the Libs are far more interested in "the vibe" of a policy, how it looks and how it makes them feel, than they are pragmatic solutions.

If we towed back everyone to France (with their agreement) and took in a quota, to an agreed set of rules, whilst also helping other European countries enforce their borders to diminish future flows, it would go away.

So why don't we do that? The "libs" (Labour?) have been pushing for a variety of urgent actions - cooperation with the EU as you suggest, going after the smugglers operating the small boats, clearing the backlog etc.

At the same time as this government demonstrate daily that they don't know what to do and even their mad ideas don't get acted upon, the right insists that they are the only people with the solution.

RochdalePioneers

Miklosvar said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Miklosvar said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Sandpit said:

Theuniondivvie said:

This is the new great white hope of Toryism?



https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1688822346277105664?s=20

I’ve said it before, but many voters don’t understand why we can’t simply put irregular arrivals on a bus to Dover, and back from whence they came on the first available ferry.

We probably could. Hello small boat people, your bus is over here. Stick the coach on the ferry, dump them in the centre of Calais.

And what then? They would just come straight back again.

You will find that French border control is a non-return valve.

Surely the frogs would let them back in? Who do they think they are>? 17.4m people voted to stick small boat people on a bus to Calais etc etc.

Yes. I don't recall being asked for a visa when we landed in Normandy in '44.

I believe the border guards were somewhat hostile though.

JosiasJessop

(Deleted)

Theuniondivvie

Miklosvar said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Miklosvar said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Sandpit said:

Theuniondivvie said:

This is the new great white hope of Toryism?



https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1688822346277105664?s=20

I’ve said it before, but many voters don’t understand why we can’t simply put irregular arrivals on a bus to Dover, and back from whence they came on the first available ferry.

We probably could. Hello small boat people, your bus is over here. Stick the coach on the ferry, dump them in the centre of Calais.

And what then? They would just come straight back again.

You will find that French border control is a non-return valve.

Surely the frogs would let them back in? Who do they think they are>? 17.4m people voted to stick small boat people on a bus to Calais etc etc.

Yes. I don't recall being asked for a visa when we landed in Normandy in '44.

The then management had a pretty stringent policy towards small and large boats approaching the coast mind.

https://youtu.be/OqSg7WO4tT4

bigjohnowls

Rishi hits the nail on the head

https://twitter.com/Parody_PM/status/1688637119336509441

Sandpit

Deleted too

JosiasJessop

Sandpit said:

JosiasJessop said:

Love the use of 'libs' by @Casino_Royale and @Sandpit below.

Another American usage coming into use by the British right.

Err, where did I say that please?

Apologies, you did not.

I shall exile myself to ConHome.