My guess: Sunak will wait until 2025 for the election – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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Annual elections for Parliament is the only outstanding point from the Peoples Charter of 1838.ydoethur said:
'Never' is too strong a word. Until 1688 (I suppose technically 1641) parliaments were called and dismissed at the pleasure of the monarch so elections were irregular. The Triennial Act 1641 stated that there must be elections every three years in England. Ironically, the first parliament elected under it sat for nineteen years. In 1688 one of the clauses under which William of Orange was made King by Parliament was that he would honour the triennial acts.BartholomewRoberts said:
There never was one, was there?Mexicanpete said:...
Is there provision for a Royal Prerogative extension anymore? We are at proxy war with Russia.SouthamObserver said:I agree with Mike. Sunak will hold on until the law compels him to go to the people. Unless he can find a way to change the law.
Another two years might be handy.
In WWI and WWII a series of Acts extending Parliament were passed.
In 1715 that was changed to every seven years for the whole of Great Britain.
In 1911 it was changed to every five years.
So I suppose you could say the monarch *did* have that power until the Civil War, in law, and until the Orange Revolution, in practice.
Wiser monarchs than Charles I of course tended to exercise that power with restraint.0 -
I was thinking more of political parties organised at the local level.Carnyx said:
Doesn't the HoP, er, cover that? But yes, on reflection. Other legislatures are available.ydoethur said:
And several political parties.Carnyx said:
FPT - but I was left wondering about the Metropolitan Police. And the Houses of Parliament. Scratching my head about those being sects, obscure or otherwise.Penddu2 said:It strikes me that the BBC is now the only organisation more protective of sex pests, perverts and rapists than the Catholic Church. Is it the new state religion?
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Yep, it does seem that nature is resilient if we can give it a helping hand. And, for me, proper meadows are so much more appealing than mown ones anyway.turbotubbs said:
It is good news. There is a definite shift now to try to reverse some of the catastrophic declines in habitats for insects, and it does work. We are nowhere near the 70’s bug splattered windscreens yet though. (Although I wonder if that also relates to more streamlined cars?).SouthamObserver said:If you are in search of positive news, let me give you some. The country around Sidmouth is currently buzzing with bees and butterflies. I think the decision to keep the grass long and let wild flowers grow in so many meadows, combined with recent rain, has brought them out to play. Not having a clue about nature I could be totally wrong. But I do know they are there because I can see them! Maybe it's only round here, but I hope not.
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And it was a dumb idea at the time, and a dumb idea now.Foxy said:
Annual elections for Parliament is the only outstanding point from the Peoples Charter of 1838.ydoethur said:
'Never' is too strong a word. Until 1688 (I suppose technically 1641) parliaments were called and dismissed at the pleasure of the monarch so elections were irregular. The Triennial Act 1641 stated that there must be elections every three years in England. Ironically, the first parliament elected under it sat for nineteen years. In 1688 one of the clauses under which William of Orange was made King by Parliament was that he would honour the triennial acts.BartholomewRoberts said:
There never was one, was there?Mexicanpete said:...
Is there provision for a Royal Prerogative extension anymore? We are at proxy war with Russia.SouthamObserver said:I agree with Mike. Sunak will hold on until the law compels him to go to the people. Unless he can find a way to change the law.
Another two years might be handy.
In WWI and WWII a series of Acts extending Parliament were passed.
In 1715 that was changed to every seven years for the whole of Great Britain.
In 1911 it was changed to every five years.
So I suppose you could say the monarch *did* have that power until the Civil War, in law, and until the Orange Revolution, in practice.
Wiser monarchs than Charles I of course tended to exercise that power with restraint.
They're short term enough when we have elections every five years.3 -
Virtually no institution in the country, including the Conservative and Labour Parties, big corporations and hedge funds, the police, schools and universities, the Scouts, the NHS, the BBC and ITV, football clubs etc as well as religious bodies have a clean bill of health when it comes to sexual misconduct cases. Though safeguarding is improving relative to say the 1970sMiklosvar said:
Looking at the circumstances in which Sentamu has been sacked from his bishopric I won't be giving the C of E a clean bill of health.HYUFD said:
The C of E and the Church of Scotland replaced the Roman Catholic Church as the British state religions 500 years ago anywayCarnyx said:
FPT - but I was left wondering about the Metropolitan Police. And the Houses of Parliament. Scratching my head about those being sects, obscure or otherwise.Penddu2 said:It strikes me that the BBC is now the only organisation more protective of sex pests, perverts and rapists than the Catholic Church. Is it the new state religion?
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Good question.ydoethur said:
Does the Civil Contingencies Act contain a clause allowing elections to be postponed? Not that Johnson used the Act, of course, because he didn't seem to know it existed, but May might have done.BartholomewRoberts said:
In a parallel universe where the FTPA had actually done it's job and May hadn't called an early election (and thus 2019 hadn't happened either) the 2015 Parliament would have expired during COVID lockdown.Nigelb said:.
No.Mexicanpete said:...
Is there provision for a Royal Prerogative extension anymore? We are at proxy war with Russia.SouthamObserver said:I agree with Mike. Sunak will hold on until the law compels him to go to the people. Unless he can find a way to change the law.
Another two years might be handy.
And even if there were, it wouldn't happen.
In the case of extreme national emergency (not sure what would be extreme enough, but it would have to be something in the order of a nuclear attack), there'd be a national coalition government, and a Parliamentary vote to postpone the election.
Most likely still with Jeremy Corbyn as LOTO.
A Parliament expiring in May 2020, under the FTPA, would have been chaos, dissolved just as the crisis hit the peak. They’d have had to find a way to extend it, or set up a government of national unity.
The 2020 local elections were postponed by Act of Parliament.
Everyone did appear somewhat scared of using the CCA, as if it were some sort of Rubicon that should never be crossed. Which IMHO was the right decision, given that Parliament could find ways of sitting and most of the CS were able to continue their work. Best save the very big hammer, for if Parliament couldn’t sit.1 -
I've been having this conversation with a few people, as our concern is if the GE is held in May with the locals, turnout will likely swamp usual local elections and hinder us (Greens).
I think it's difficult to parse. It looks like it is very hard to govern for the Tories right now - they aren't going to be able to pass much legislation, and what they are trying to pass is getting eaten in the Lords. As things get worse more and more of the "Sunak doesn't seem to be happy / enjoying the job" stories are coming out, which feel like precursors to GE. And, let's face it, there isn't going to be a point in the next 18 months where the Tories get a sudden bounce unless SKS kicks a puppy on live television, or Sunak finds a truly massive gold (or lithium) deposit under Stoke and nationalises it to give the profits to everyone in the country (which he wouldn't do anyway).
The arguments for a May GE are also lacklustre, though. Tory MPs are unlikely to vote for an earlier GE than they have to, and nobody gives a damn about the logistical and monetary costs to local councils of two elections in 8 months. There may be some benefit to local Tory parties in not having the GE and locals on the same day, to prevent big wipe outs and promote ticket splitting between local and national figures, but it is unlikely to make a huge difference. If more defectors / by-elections happen maybe Sunak's hands will be forced, but he has a large enough majority to hold it together if he wants to.
If the past is anything to go by, the Tories just want to hang on to power and keep the party together. To me that suggests a later GE. Unless a new Farage / Johnson party turns up and gets a load of MPs defecting to them, I can't imagine an early GE. But I also said that about May and Johnson, so what the hell do I know?0 -
I was in camp October 2024, but I'm starting to lean towards January 2025:
- It gives Sunak one further opportunity to deliver a pre-election tax-cutting budget before the campaign. High inflation means that's the earliest realistic point at which that'll be possible.
- He'll hope falling inflation means he can claim his economic strategy has been vindicated
- Gives him a few more months in office before retiring from politics.
It'll still be portrayed as desperately clinging onto power over Christmas, but he can't have it both ways.
I would put May/June 2024 as incredibly unlikely now.1 -
The number plate tests say it doesn't.turbotubbs said:
It is good news. There is a definite shift now to try to reverse some of the catastrophic declines in habitats for insects, and it does work. We are nowhere near the 70’s bug splattered windscreens yet though. (Although I wonder if that also relates to more streamlined cars?).SouthamObserver said:If you are in search of positive news, let me give you some. The country around Sidmouth is currently buzzing with bees and butterflies. I think the decision to keep the grass long and let wild flowers grow in so many meadows, combined with recent rain, has brought them out to play. Not having a clue about nature I could be totally wrong. But I do know they are there because I can see them! Maybe it's only round here, but I hope not.
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Thanks for that Carnyx, excellent readCarnyx said:O/T but some very striking photos:
https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2023/jul/12/janine-wiedel-images-of-flaming-1970s-industrial-britain
And a couple of comments caught my eye:
"My father was a die caster at the Birmid in Smethwick and I remember the burn holes in his trousers and shirts from the molten metal.
My nan and my mum both worked at Bullpitts round the corner from the jewellery quarter making Swan kettles, saucepans teapots etc. [...] My mum would spend lots of time taking the swarf out of her hands and fingers each evening.
A brass part on my nan's machine had to be replaced, they presented it to her as she had over many years left imprints in the brass of her grip on it. My brother still has this part."
and
"As for drinking at work, I worked in a foundry. As the youngest on the shop floor I would be sent to the nearest pub with two steel buckets to fill up with mild beer. The gaffers didn't mind because we all only drank mild (a less potent brew) and we soon sweated it out. Thinking back, the conditions were atrocious.....but the camaraderie and the banter was second to none. We thought it a triumph when showers were fitted in the changing room. We always let the lads who had lost fingers or had been badly burned go first in the showers. Etiquette among men considered subhuman by the office staff."0 -
We're currently house hunting and it's been a real eye opener to see the number of places that have plastic grass. Way more than I'd have expected, and it really puts us off, as it'd have to be ripped up and proper lawn laid again. ICarnyx said:
THere's been much more emphasis lately in leaving meadows alone for the early months to let the insects have a chance. Parallel movement in gardening, too: not being anal about one's lawn (let alone replace it with plastic etc). Mrs C has been of that philosophy for decades and our lawnless front garden has been a chaotic mass of flowers since the snowdrops and crocuses - full of bumblebees and hoverflies, and butterflies. In contrast to the sometimes sterile plastic grass and hard core parking spaces elswehere on the same street.SouthamObserver said:If you are in search of positive news, let me give you some. The country around Sidmouth is currently buzzing with bees and butterflies. I think the decision to keep the grass long and let wild flowers grow in so many meadows, combined with recent rain, has brought them out to play. Not having a clue about nature I could be totally wrong. But I do know they are there because I can see them! Maybe it's only round here, but I hope not.
Edit: even the RHS is in on it, much to its credit.
https://www.rhs.org.uk/lawns/creating-wildflower-meadows3 -
Indeed no government would ever get anything done or time to fulfil its manifesto and would always be focused on the next election rather than governingydoethur said:
And it was a dumb idea at the time, and a dumb idea now.Foxy said:
Annual elections for Parliament is the only outstanding point from the Peoples Charter of 1838.ydoethur said:
'Never' is too strong a word. Until 1688 (I suppose technically 1641) parliaments were called and dismissed at the pleasure of the monarch so elections were irregular. The Triennial Act 1641 stated that there must be elections every three years in England. Ironically, the first parliament elected under it sat for nineteen years. In 1688 one of the clauses under which William of Orange was made King by Parliament was that he would honour the triennial acts.BartholomewRoberts said:
There never was one, was there?Mexicanpete said:...
Is there provision for a Royal Prerogative extension anymore? We are at proxy war with Russia.SouthamObserver said:I agree with Mike. Sunak will hold on until the law compels him to go to the people. Unless he can find a way to change the law.
Another two years might be handy.
In WWI and WWII a series of Acts extending Parliament were passed.
In 1715 that was changed to every seven years for the whole of Great Britain.
In 1911 it was changed to every five years.
So I suppose you could say the monarch *did* have that power until the Civil War, in law, and until the Orange Revolution, in practice.
Wiser monarchs than Charles I of course tended to exercise that power with restraint.
They're short term enough when we have elections every five years.2 -
Totally agree.DavidL said:What is this government trying to do?
We have the utterly doomed Stop the boats bill with the Rwanda option. Doomed, not because it will not pass but because it is a token gesture against the numbers now coming over. The Today program has been doing a series of longer reports about the boats problem in the Med. The pressure building up in Africa from rapidly growing populations and a huge amount of instability is immense. We only get a small secondary wave from this but the idea a policy in this country is going to stop it is frankly ridiculous.
Other than that the government is waiting for and hoping that inflation is going to fall. It will, but probably more slowly than thought by the Bank (again). The fall in inflation will eventually stop the reduction in real term incomes but any positive trend is going to be modest and has a lot of catching up to do after the last 18 months.
The next pledge was to reduce government debt. Not going to happen. Even if he really meant as a share of GDP very unlikely to happen.
And then there is shortening waiting lists in the NHS. Given the industrial unrest in the NHS with the forthcoming doctors' strikes this again looks out of reach.
It is a pretty modest platform for government and yet the scorecard looks unlikely to be a net positive. The paucity of ideas and ambition is palpable.
I caught one of those reports about the Med boat migrants on R4. Two things struck me:
1. The ubiquity of the English language is our blessing and our curse but in illegal immigration it works against us, badly. Most migrants want to get to an English-speaking country where they can at least get by.
2. Nothing meaningful or useful will happen without concerted, co-ordinated, action across Europe (effectively the EU). Such concerted action may not be possible but we cannot solve this in isolation.
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Morning all! Jan 25 is very possible. To go to the country means making a decision. If the polls continue to show that the Tories are going to be like a pornhub stepmom who "accidentally" got "stuck" under a bed, to call an election would be brave.
We know the game plan is two fold:
1: To wait for things to get better. The economy. Inflation, Trade Deals, Stopping the Boats. All these things need time, and seemingly a lot more time than the this year deadline that Dishi set himself
2: To engage in arse-spraying mayhem which so slanders Starmer and the Labour front bench that people are persuaded that a vote for the party of lies and corruption and incompetence actually is the better option actually.
Both of these need time. So the path of least resistance is *not* to call an election. Don't go to the country at all - let this parliament time itself out and the election be called by the mandarins. We could even have a "woke leftie enemies of the people blob lawyers" attack as the people's parliament is ended not by the government of the 17.4m, but by unelected mandarins.
The end result is the same - an election late January. Which would be *mental*. But this government and especially so many of the thick as mince idiots who were elected in 2019 are demonstrably idiots. So why not do the stupid? Johnson reduced himself to a minority and sent Geoffrey wotzit out to rage from the dispatch box against his own government, demanding that it be thrown from office. Mental. And post 2019 they are more mental...0 -
He still didn't call the election on his own terms did he but kept putting it off as long as possible. Labour if they have the numbers can try and force a VONC but unlike Callaghan who was still left with a small majority from the no majority Feb 1974 election and narrow majority Oct 1974 elections Wilson narrowly won, Rishi still has the legacy of Boris' ginormous majority of Dec 2019 to keep him going for the rest of the term.ydoethur said:
On a point of order, Callaghan was four and a half years - October 74 to May 79.HYUFD said:
Gordon Brown kept Tory supporters waiting for 5 years from 2005 to 2010, Callaghan kept Tories waiting for 5 years from 1974 to 1979 so Labour supporters can be kept waiting 5 years too for a likely change of government.turbotubbs said:
Climate change Januaries are not what they once were - the Januaries of the late 70’s and early 80’s were often brutal, and like Dickins, my childhood is full of memories of snowy winters.HYUFD said:If all that Sunak cares about is maximising his tenure in No 10 in the history books without ever winning a general election then Jan 2025 would be a good bet.
If he wants to annoy voters however, forcing a general election in freezing January 2025 rather than September or October 2024 would be a good way to do it
From a personal point of view, I’d love the distraction of a January election. Jan can be a tedious month, so for politics geeks it would be like Christmas, all over again.
For the Country, May 2024 would be best. A reset is needed, even if those coming in have few ideas of consequence. At least the faces telling us how shit it all is will change.
John Major also waited for 5 years from 1992 to 1997 so no reason for Rish to call an election in May 2024 when he still has 6 months extra to go if he wants it
And he didn't 'keep them waiting,' he lost a vote of no confidence.0 -
Where do you go to learn that unwritten constitutionBartholomewRoberts said:
Try learning our constitution.HYUFD said:
The King can still force a general election and dissolve Parliament if a PM has refused to hold one after the 5 year term of his government has elapsedydoethur said:
'Never' is too strong a word. Until 1668 (I suppose technically 1641) parliaments were called and dismissed at the pleasure of the monarch so elections were irregular. The Triennial Act 1641 stated that there must be elections every three years in England. Ironically, the first parliament elected under it sat for nineteen years. In 1688 one of the clauses under which William of Orange was made King by Parliament was that he would honour the triennial acts.BartholomewRoberts said:
There never was one, was there?Mexicanpete said:...
Is there provision for a Royal Prerogative extension anymore? We are at proxy war with Russia.SouthamObserver said:I agree with Mike. Sunak will hold on until the law compels him to go to the people. Unless he can find a way to change the law.
Another two years might be handy.
In WWI and WWII a series of Acts extending Parliament were passed.
In 1715 that was changed to every seven years for the whole of Great Britain.
In 1911 it was changed to every five years.
So I suppose you could say the monarch *did* have that power until the Civil War, in law, and until the Orange Revolution, in practice.
Wiser monarchs than Charles I of course tended to exercise that power with restraint.
One happens automatically by law, the King doesn't choose.1 -
Doesn't even last very long, though, so in some cases you might have to do that anyway ... but one worries also about what it covers.twistedfirestopper3 said:
We're currently house hunting and it's been a real eye opener to see the number of places that have plastic grass. Way more than I'd have expected, and it really puts us off, as it'd have to be ripped up and proper lawn laid again. ICarnyx said:
THere's been much more emphasis lately in leaving meadows alone for the early months to let the insects have a chance. Parallel movement in gardening, too: not being anal about one's lawn (let alone replace it with plastic etc). Mrs C has been of that philosophy for decades and our lawnless front garden has been a chaotic mass of flowers since the snowdrops and crocuses - full of bumblebees and hoverflies, and butterflies. In contrast to the sometimes sterile plastic grass and hard core parking spaces elswehere on the same street.SouthamObserver said:If you are in search of positive news, let me give you some. The country around Sidmouth is currently buzzing with bees and butterflies. I think the decision to keep the grass long and let wild flowers grow in so many meadows, combined with recent rain, has brought them out to play. Not having a clue about nature I could be totally wrong. But I do know they are there because I can see them! Maybe it's only round here, but I hope not.
Edit: even the RHS is in on it, much to its credit.
https://www.rhs.org.uk/lawns/creating-wildflower-meadows
Up here the planning rules forbid any increase in paving/building over gardens beyond a certain formula, to reduce flash rainfall runoff. I'm not sure, without being able to see back gardens, how far this is observed, but plastic grass over a membrane can't be great for that either.0 -
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There would be a delicious irony if the government, which had prioritised the repeal of the FTPA, left calling a general election until the last possible moment.0
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November 2024 seems worth considering. As you say, winters ain't what they used to be, and it avoids the "last possible moment/to hell with Christmas" meme, while being so close to the end as to make little difference. Also, unlike October it allows one more round of party conferences, which occasionally throw up surprises and give one more shot at rallying the troops.turbotubbs said:
Climate change Januaries are not what they once were - the Januaries of the late 70’s and early 80’s were often brutal, and like Dickins, my childhood is full of memories of snowy winters.HYUFD said:If all that Sunak cares about is maximising his tenure in No 10 in the history books without ever winning a general election then Jan 2025 would be a good bet.
If he wants to annoy voters however, forcing a general election in freezing January 2025 rather than September or October 2024 would be a good way to do it
From a personal point of view, I’d love the distraction of a January election. Jan can be a tedious month, so for politics geeks it would be like Christmas, all over again.
For the Country, May 2024 would be best. A reset is needed, even if those coming in have few ideas of consequence. At least the faces telling us how shit it all is will change.1 -
So much better to have stuck with Welsh and Gaelic, then?Benpointer said:
Totally agree.DavidL said:What is this government trying to do?
We have the utterly doomed Stop the boats bill with the Rwanda option. Doomed, not because it will not pass but because it is a token gesture against the numbers now coming over. The Today program has been doing a series of longer reports about the boats problem in the Med. The pressure building up in Africa from rapidly growing populations and a huge amount of instability is immense. We only get a small secondary wave from this but the idea a policy in this country is going to stop it is frankly ridiculous.
Other than that the government is waiting for and hoping that inflation is going to fall. It will, but probably more slowly than thought by the Bank (again). The fall in inflation will eventually stop the reduction in real term incomes but any positive trend is going to be modest and has a lot of catching up to do after the last 18 months.
The next pledge was to reduce government debt. Not going to happen. Even if he really meant as a share of GDP very unlikely to happen.
And then there is shortening waiting lists in the NHS. Given the industrial unrest in the NHS with the forthcoming doctors' strikes this again looks out of reach.
It is a pretty modest platform for government and yet the scorecard looks unlikely to be a net positive. The paucity of ideas and ambition is palpable.
I caught one of those reports about the Med boat migrants on R4. Two things struck me:
1. The ubiquity of the English language is our blessing and our curse but in illegal immigration it works against us, badly. Most migrants want to get to an English-speaking country where they can at least get by.
2. Nothing meaningful or useful will happen without concerted, co-ordinated, action across Europe (effectively the EU). Such concerted action may not be possible but we cannot solve this in isolation.1 -
Though the reporting coming out of this week's Synod is not indicating a church that has got any sort of grip on the issue.HYUFD said:
Virtually no institution in the country, including the Conservative and Labour Parties, big corporations and hedge funds, the police, schools and universities, the Scouts, the NHS, the BBC and ITV, football clubs etc as well as religious bodies have a clean bill of health when it comes to sexual misconduct cases. Though safeguarding is improving relative to say the 1970sMiklosvar said:
Looking at the circumstances in which Sentamu has been sacked from his bishopric I won't be giving the C of E a clean bill of health.HYUFD said:
The C of E and the Church of Scotland replaced the Roman Catholic Church as the British state religions 500 years ago anywayCarnyx said:
FPT - but I was left wondering about the Metropolitan Police. And the Houses of Parliament. Scratching my head about those being sects, obscure or otherwise.Penddu2 said:It strikes me that the BBC is now the only organisation more protective of sex pests, perverts and rapists than the Catholic Church. Is it the new state religion?
https://www.thinkinganglicans.org.uk/isb-controversy-episode-9/0 -
Was a story in paper last year , some woman had got up in morning to find someone had rolled teh lawn up and nicked it. Anyone with plastic grass should get minimum 3 years with no remission.twistedfirestopper3 said:
We're currently house hunting and it's been a real eye opener to see the number of places that have plastic grass. Way more than I'd have expected, and it really puts us off, as it'd have to be ripped up and proper lawn laid again. ICarnyx said:
THere's been much more emphasis lately in leaving meadows alone for the early months to let the insects have a chance. Parallel movement in gardening, too: not being anal about one's lawn (let alone replace it with plastic etc). Mrs C has been of that philosophy for decades and our lawnless front garden has been a chaotic mass of flowers since the snowdrops and crocuses - full of bumblebees and hoverflies, and butterflies. In contrast to the sometimes sterile plastic grass and hard core parking spaces elswehere on the same street.SouthamObserver said:If you are in search of positive news, let me give you some. The country around Sidmouth is currently buzzing with bees and butterflies. I think the decision to keep the grass long and let wild flowers grow in so many meadows, combined with recent rain, has brought them out to play. Not having a clue about nature I could be totally wrong. But I do know they are there because I can see them! Maybe it's only round here, but I hope not.
Edit: even the RHS is in on it, much to its credit.
https://www.rhs.org.uk/lawns/creating-wildflower-meadows6 -
Another paper on bat coronaviruses with further evidence that Covid wasn't that unusual in comparison with wild viruses circulating in bat populations.
One of the bat coronaviruses described here from Yunnan province in China is a recombinant between SARS-1-like and SARS-2-like viruses. It has a receptor binding domain that is as close as any to SARS-CoV-2.
https://twitter.com/edwardcholmes/status/16785304573639639092 -
F1 in recent years seems to have had a thing where they leave shit drivers in place through the very long season, as opposed to firing them and sticking someone betterinto the seat like in the good old days. The last "you're shit" mid season firing I could think of was Joylon Palmer fired by Renault a few years back.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
F1: surprised to see Ricciardo back. He's taken de Vries' seat.
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.breaking-ricciardo-to-replace-de-vries-at-alphatauri-from-the-hungarian.2yhnzxE6XpSUZwzHfr9rXp.html
DeVries isn't a bad driver - he won the Formula E championship which is extremely competitive. But good drivers in lower formula don't always step up into the top formula and this is a classic example.
He's been on the chop list for a while, so I'm delighted to see Red Bull fire him this abruptly and give the car to The Honey Badger to try and develop. Perez is also a marked man, so a few mega races for Ricciardo in the AT with Mexican Tom Cruise continuing to fail to qualify the RB and Perez will be out with Badger in his seat before the end of the season.
The other date for your diaries - 10th September. The final Indycar race of their (way too short) season and Alex 2 time champion Palou will be available. Ricciardo has until then to show that he and not Palou deserves the promotion to replace Perez.1 -
The EU have much bigger problems with immigration than we do because of the accidents of geography. Its bringing down governments there already. Why on earth should they help us with our smallish problems when they have much larger ones?Benpointer said:
Totally agree.DavidL said:What is this government trying to do?
We have the utterly doomed Stop the boats bill with the Rwanda option. Doomed, not because it will not pass but because it is a token gesture against the numbers now coming over. The Today program has been doing a series of longer reports about the boats problem in the Med. The pressure building up in Africa from rapidly growing populations and a huge amount of instability is immense. We only get a small secondary wave from this but the idea a policy in this country is going to stop it is frankly ridiculous.
Other than that the government is waiting for and hoping that inflation is going to fall. It will, but probably more slowly than thought by the Bank (again). The fall in inflation will eventually stop the reduction in real term incomes but any positive trend is going to be modest and has a lot of catching up to do after the last 18 months.
The next pledge was to reduce government debt. Not going to happen. Even if he really meant as a share of GDP very unlikely to happen.
And then there is shortening waiting lists in the NHS. Given the industrial unrest in the NHS with the forthcoming doctors' strikes this again looks out of reach.
It is a pretty modest platform for government and yet the scorecard looks unlikely to be a net positive. The paucity of ideas and ambition is palpable.
I caught one of those reports about the Med boat migrants on R4. Two things struck me:
1. The ubiquity of the English language is our blessing and our curse but in illegal immigration it works against us, badly. Most migrants want to get to an English-speaking country where they can at least get by.
2. Nothing meaningful or useful will happen without concerted, co-ordinated, action across Europe (effectively the EU). Such concerted action may not be possible but we cannot solve this in isolation.
This is a problem not just for today but for the next 30 years whilst the population of Africa peaks. Our debates about this are ludicrously parochial.2 -
A majority of MPs last night voted to reject revisions on the illegal Migration Bill made by the Lords despite a rebellion by some Tory MPs like Theresa May to keep the House of Lords amendments in. Plus the Court of Appeal's rejection of government plans to send migrants to Rwanda
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-661682800 -
Point of detail: 'Tory MPs are unlikely to vote for an earlier GE than they have to...' They don't have to; they don't get a vote, Sunak decides.148grss said:I've been having this conversation with a few people, as our concern is if the GE is held in May with the locals, turnout will likely swamp usual local elections and hinder us (Greens).
I think it's difficult to parse. It looks like it is very hard to govern for the Tories right now - they aren't going to be able to pass much legislation, and what they are trying to pass is getting eaten in the Lords. As things get worse more and more of the "Sunak doesn't seem to be happy / enjoying the job" stories are coming out, which feel like precursors to GE. And, let's face it, there isn't going to be a point in the next 18 months where the Tories get a sudden bounce unless SKS kicks a puppy on live television, or Sunak finds a truly massive gold (or lithium) deposit under Stoke and nationalises it to give the profits to everyone in the country (which he wouldn't do anyway).
The arguments for a May GE are also lacklustre, though. Tory MPs are unlikely to vote for an earlier GE than they have to, and nobody gives a damn about the logistical and monetary costs to local councils of two elections in 8 months. There may be some benefit to local Tory parties in not having the GE and locals on the same day, to prevent big wipe outs and promote ticket splitting between local and national figures, but it is unlikely to make a huge difference. If more defectors / by-elections happen maybe Sunak's hands will be forced, but he has a large enough majority to hold it together if he wants to.
If the past is anything to go by, the Tories just want to hang on to power and keep the party together. To me that suggests a later GE. Unless a new Farage / Johnson party turns up and gets a load of MPs defecting to them, I can't imagine an early GE. But I also said that about May and Johnson, so what the hell do I know?1 -
It's impossible for things to get better in the time the Tories have left. Just the mortgage rate itself and the looming carnage in the housing market that that will bring will be enough without all the rest of the shitshow. Houses on Rightmove are all overpriced by at least 10% and are only going one way. Great news for me as a cash buyer, but existential for anyone that has to sell because they can't afford to stay in the property or has to move for personal or work issues. It's not going to pornhub, it's going to be a snuff flick.RochdalePioneers said:Morning all! Jan 25 is very possible. To go to the country means making a decision. If the polls continue to show that the Tories are going to be like a pornhub stepmom who "accidentally" got "stuck" under a bed, to call an election would be brave.
We know the game plan is two fold:
1: To wait for things to get better. The economy. Inflation, Trade Deals, Stopping the Boats. All these things need time, and seemingly a lot more time than the this year deadline that Dishi set himself
2: To engage in arse-spraying mayhem which so slanders Starmer and the Labour front bench that people are persuaded that a vote for the party of lies and corruption and incompetence actually is the better option actually.
Both of these need time. So the path of least resistance is *not* to call an election. Don't go to the country at all - let this parliament time itself out and the election be called by the mandarins. We could even have a "woke leftie enemies of the people blob lawyers" attack as the people's parliament is ended not by the government of the 17.4m, but by unelected mandarins.
The end result is the same - an election late January. Which would be *mental*. But this government and especially so many of the thick as mince idiots who were elected in 2019 are demonstrably idiots. So why not do the stupid? Johnson reduced himself to a minority and sent Geoffrey wotzit out to rage from the dispatch box against his own government, demanding that it be thrown from office. Mental. And post 2019 they are more mental...0 -
Oh, she had the value of her house increased? Difficult to see where the crime is then.malcolmg said:
Was a story in paper last year , some woman had got up in morning to find someone had rolled teh lawn up and nicked it. Anyone with plastic grass should get minimum 3 years with no remission.twistedfirestopper3 said:
We're currently house hunting and it's been a real eye opener to see the number of places that have plastic grass. Way more than I'd have expected, and it really puts us off, as it'd have to be ripped up and proper lawn laid again. ICarnyx said:
THere's been much more emphasis lately in leaving meadows alone for the early months to let the insects have a chance. Parallel movement in gardening, too: not being anal about one's lawn (let alone replace it with plastic etc). Mrs C has been of that philosophy for decades and our lawnless front garden has been a chaotic mass of flowers since the snowdrops and crocuses - full of bumblebees and hoverflies, and butterflies. In contrast to the sometimes sterile plastic grass and hard core parking spaces elswehere on the same street.SouthamObserver said:If you are in search of positive news, let me give you some. The country around Sidmouth is currently buzzing with bees and butterflies. I think the decision to keep the grass long and let wild flowers grow in so many meadows, combined with recent rain, has brought them out to play. Not having a clue about nature I could be totally wrong. But I do know they are there because I can see them! Maybe it's only round here, but I hope not.
Edit: even the RHS is in on it, much to its credit.
https://www.rhs.org.uk/lawns/creating-wildflower-meadows2 -
If inflation is tamed only by recession, real terms wage cuts and a wave of zombie company bankruptcies, and ongoing industrial unrest, I am not convinced that there will be a dividend at the polls.DavidL said:What is this government trying to do?
We have the utterly doomed Stop the boats bill with the Rwanda option. Doomed, not because it will not pass but because it is a token gesture against the numbers now coming over. The Today program has been doing a series of longer reports about the boats problem in the Med. The pressure building up in Africa from rapidly growing populations and a huge amount of instability is immense. We only get a small secondary wave from this but the idea a policy in this country is going to stop it is frankly ridiculous.
Other than that the government is waiting for and hoping that inflation is going to fall. It will, but probably more slowly than thought by the Bank (again). The fall in inflation will eventually stop the reduction in real term incomes but any positive trend is going to be modest and has a lot of catching up to do after the last 18 months.
The next pledge was to reduce government debt. Not going to happen. Even if he really meant as a share of GDP very unlikely to happen.
And then there is shortening waiting lists in the NHS. Given the industrial unrest in the NHS with the forthcoming doctors' strikes this again looks out of reach.
It is a pretty modest platform for government and yet the scorecard looks unlikely to be a net positive. The paucity of ideas and ambition is palpable.0 -
Personally, I hope the Tories WIN the Uxbridge by election. That might give Sunak the illusion that the worst is over, and thus might tempt him to go for a general election this year. But it doesn't matter when the election is held - the Tories are going to get pummelled.0
-
Oh, yes, fix term parliament act is gone... In which case then, ignore me on that point. Do we think then we are back to the days of GE threats as a disciplinary action on the party, or have those days gone?Benpointer said:
Point of detail: 'Tory MPs are unlikely to vote for an earlier GE than they have to...' They don't have to; they don't get a vote, Sunak decides.148grss said:I've been having this conversation with a few people, as our concern is if the GE is held in May with the locals, turnout will likely swamp usual local elections and hinder us (Greens).
I think it's difficult to parse. It looks like it is very hard to govern for the Tories right now - they aren't going to be able to pass much legislation, and what they are trying to pass is getting eaten in the Lords. As things get worse more and more of the "Sunak doesn't seem to be happy / enjoying the job" stories are coming out, which feel like precursors to GE. And, let's face it, there isn't going to be a point in the next 18 months where the Tories get a sudden bounce unless SKS kicks a puppy on live television, or Sunak finds a truly massive gold (or lithium) deposit under Stoke and nationalises it to give the profits to everyone in the country (which he wouldn't do anyway).
The arguments for a May GE are also lacklustre, though. Tory MPs are unlikely to vote for an earlier GE than they have to, and nobody gives a damn about the logistical and monetary costs to local councils of two elections in 8 months. There may be some benefit to local Tory parties in not having the GE and locals on the same day, to prevent big wipe outs and promote ticket splitting between local and national figures, but it is unlikely to make a huge difference. If more defectors / by-elections happen maybe Sunak's hands will be forced, but he has a large enough majority to hold it together if he wants to.
If the past is anything to go by, the Tories just want to hang on to power and keep the party together. To me that suggests a later GE. Unless a new Farage / Johnson party turns up and gets a load of MPs defecting to them, I can't imagine an early GE. But I also said that about May and Johnson, so what the hell do I know?0 -
If you watched the Synod debate as I did the issue was those supposed to be running the Independent Report were not offering recommendations for the Church going forward to improve safeguarding as well as simply examining responsibility in old cases.Stuartinromford said:
Though the reporting coming out of this week's Synod is not indicating a church that has got any sort of grip on the issue.HYUFD said:
Virtually no institution in the country, including the Conservative and Labour Parties, big corporations and hedge funds, the police, schools and universities, the Scouts, the NHS, the BBC and ITV, football clubs etc as well as religious bodies have a clean bill of health when it comes to sexual misconduct cases. Though safeguarding is improving relative to say the 1970sMiklosvar said:
Looking at the circumstances in which Sentamu has been sacked from his bishopric I won't be giving the C of E a clean bill of health.HYUFD said:
The C of E and the Church of Scotland replaced the Roman Catholic Church as the British state religions 500 years ago anywayCarnyx said:
FPT - but I was left wondering about the Metropolitan Police. And the Houses of Parliament. Scratching my head about those being sects, obscure or otherwise.Penddu2 said:It strikes me that the BBC is now the only organisation more protective of sex pests, perverts and rapists than the Catholic Church. Is it the new state religion?
https://www.thinkinganglicans.org.uk/isb-controversy-episode-9/
The Church of England having women priests and Bishops as well as male priests and Bishops unlike the Roman Catholic church does however also mean it will relatively speaking likely always have less abuse cases than the latter0 -
Ordinarily that is true. But if we assume todays trends continue forward we are talking about PM Sunak proposing to his cabinet that he dissolves parliament early for an election in which many of them will lose their seats.HYUFD said:If all that Sunak cares about is maximising his tenure in No 10 in the history books without ever winning a general election then Jan 2025 would be a good bet.
If he wants to annoy voters however, forcing a general election in freezing January 2025 rather than September or October 2024 would be a good way to do it
Your corrupt and incompetent immorality party is already annoying voters. Pushing it to 2025 is the hail Mary pass - hoping for a positive development to show up and save you lot from oblivion.0 -
My guess is that wages will start to rise again in real terms by September as the inflation rate falls below the 7% we saw announced yesterday. But after quite serious falls over the last 18 months I agree the government will neither get nor deserve any thanks for it.Foxy said:
If inflation is tamed only by recession, real terms wage cuts and a wave of zombie company bankruptcies, and ongoing industrial unrest, I am not convinced that there will be a dividend at the polls.DavidL said:What is this government trying to do?
We have the utterly doomed Stop the boats bill with the Rwanda option. Doomed, not because it will not pass but because it is a token gesture against the numbers now coming over. The Today program has been doing a series of longer reports about the boats problem in the Med. The pressure building up in Africa from rapidly growing populations and a huge amount of instability is immense. We only get a small secondary wave from this but the idea a policy in this country is going to stop it is frankly ridiculous.
Other than that the government is waiting for and hoping that inflation is going to fall. It will, but probably more slowly than thought by the Bank (again). The fall in inflation will eventually stop the reduction in real term incomes but any positive trend is going to be modest and has a lot of catching up to do after the last 18 months.
The next pledge was to reduce government debt. Not going to happen. Even if he really meant as a share of GDP very unlikely to happen.
And then there is shortening waiting lists in the NHS. Given the industrial unrest in the NHS with the forthcoming doctors' strikes this again looks out of reach.
It is a pretty modest platform for government and yet the scorecard looks unlikely to be a net positive. The paucity of ideas and ambition is palpable.0 -
Yep this Tory government not only believes in painting over Disney characters that might provide a scintilla of comfort to traumatised children, but also believes that vulnerable women trafficked to the UK to be sex slaves should be treated as criminals and either deported straight back into the arms of the criminals that trafficked them or sent to Rwanda. Makes you proud, doesn't it?HYUFD said:A majority of MPs last night voted to reject revisions on the illegal Migration Bill made by the Lords despite a rebellion by some Tory MPs like Theresa May to keep the House of Lords amendments in. Plus the Court of Appeal's rejection of government plans to send migrants to Rwanda
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66168280
2 -
A totally ruthless cynical calculating Tory (one from the good old days) might consider going now, or early Autumn 2023 anyway.
Partly because, if things are likely to get worse, the best of times is now. It leaves Starmer holding the baby just before the poonami, improving the chances of the Conservatives only spending one term in opposition. And it brings the next general election forward to 2028 instead of 2029/30.
If I were an ambitious minister with a very safe seat, possibly with the initials KB, that adds up to an attractive package.
It won't happen, because one of the essences of the modern Conservative party is not thinking more than about seventeen minutes ahead and not thinking of anyone other than oneself.0 -
Climate change is going to render a fair part of the Sahel uninhabitable. Climate refugees are going to dominate the next few decades.DavidL said:
The EU have much bigger problems with immigration than we do because of the accidents of geography. Its bringing down governments there already. Why on earth should they help us with our smallish problems when they have much larger ones?Benpointer said:
Totally agree.DavidL said:What is this government trying to do?
We have the utterly doomed Stop the boats bill with the Rwanda option. Doomed, not because it will not pass but because it is a token gesture against the numbers now coming over. The Today program has been doing a series of longer reports about the boats problem in the Med. The pressure building up in Africa from rapidly growing populations and a huge amount of instability is immense. We only get a small secondary wave from this but the idea a policy in this country is going to stop it is frankly ridiculous.
Other than that the government is waiting for and hoping that inflation is going to fall. It will, but probably more slowly than thought by the Bank (again). The fall in inflation will eventually stop the reduction in real term incomes but any positive trend is going to be modest and has a lot of catching up to do after the last 18 months.
The next pledge was to reduce government debt. Not going to happen. Even if he really meant as a share of GDP very unlikely to happen.
And then there is shortening waiting lists in the NHS. Given the industrial unrest in the NHS with the forthcoming doctors' strikes this again looks out of reach.
It is a pretty modest platform for government and yet the scorecard looks unlikely to be a net positive. The paucity of ideas and ambition is palpable.
I caught one of those reports about the Med boat migrants on R4. Two things struck me:
1. The ubiquity of the English language is our blessing and our curse but in illegal immigration it works against us, badly. Most migrants want to get to an English-speaking country where they can at least get by.
2. Nothing meaningful or useful will happen without concerted, co-ordinated, action across Europe (effectively the EU). Such concerted action may not be possible but we cannot solve this in isolation.
This is a problem not just for today but for the next 30 years whilst the population of Africa peaks. Our debates about this are ludicrously parochial.1 -
But C of E has about 5 times as many congregations and communicants ...HYUFD said:
If you watched the Synod debate as I did the issue was those supposed to be running the Independent Report were not offering recommendations for the Church going forward to improve safeguarding as well as simply examining responsibility in old case.Stuartinromford said:
Though the reporting coming out of this week's Synod is not indicating a church that has got any sort of grip on the issue.HYUFD said:
Virtually no institution in the country, including the Conservative and Labour Parties, big corporations and hedge funds, the police, schools and universities, the Scouts, the NHS, the BBC and ITV, football clubs etc as well as religious bodies have a clean bill of health when it comes to sexual misconduct cases. Though safeguarding is improving relative to say the 1970sMiklosvar said:
Looking at the circumstances in which Sentamu has been sacked from his bishopric I won't be giving the C of E a clean bill of health.HYUFD said:
The C of E and the Church of Scotland replaced the Roman Catholic Church as the British state religions 500 years ago anywayCarnyx said:
FPT - but I was left wondering about the Metropolitan Police. And the Houses of Parliament. Scratching my head about those being sects, obscure or otherwise.Penddu2 said:It strikes me that the BBC is now the only organisation more protective of sex pests, perverts and rapists than the Catholic Church. Is it the new state religion?
https://www.thinkinganglicans.org.uk/isb-controversy-episode-9/
The Church of England having women priests and Bishops as well as male priests and Bishops unlike the Roman Catholic church does however also mean it will relatively speaking likely always have less abuse cases than the latter0 -
Carnyx, the crime is having plastic grass. What kind of cretin do you need to be to want that in preference to the real thing.Carnyx said:
Oh, she had the value of her house increased? Difficult to see where the crime is then.malcolmg said:
Was a story in paper last year , some woman had got up in morning to find someone had rolled teh lawn up and nicked it. Anyone with plastic grass should get minimum 3 years with no remission.twistedfirestopper3 said:
We're currently house hunting and it's been a real eye opener to see the number of places that have plastic grass. Way more than I'd have expected, and it really puts us off, as it'd have to be ripped up and proper lawn laid again. ICarnyx said:
THere's been much more emphasis lately in leaving meadows alone for the early months to let the insects have a chance. Parallel movement in gardening, too: not being anal about one's lawn (let alone replace it with plastic etc). Mrs C has been of that philosophy for decades and our lawnless front garden has been a chaotic mass of flowers since the snowdrops and crocuses - full of bumblebees and hoverflies, and butterflies. In contrast to the sometimes sterile plastic grass and hard core parking spaces elswehere on the same street.SouthamObserver said:If you are in search of positive news, let me give you some. The country around Sidmouth is currently buzzing with bees and butterflies. I think the decision to keep the grass long and let wild flowers grow in so many meadows, combined with recent rain, has brought them out to play. Not having a clue about nature I could be totally wrong. But I do know they are there because I can see them! Maybe it's only round here, but I hope not.
Edit: even the RHS is in on it, much to its credit.
https://www.rhs.org.uk/lawns/creating-wildflower-meadows0 -
Its what Jesus would do.SouthamObserver said:
Yep this Tory government not only believes in painting over Disney characters that might provide a scintilla of comfort to traumatised children, but also believes that vulnerable women trafficked to the UK to be sex slaves should be treated as criminals and either deported straight back into the arms of the criminals that trafficked them or sent to Rwanda. Makes you proud, doesn't it?HYUFD said:A majority of MPs last night voted to reject revisions on the illegal Migration Bill made by the Lords despite a rebellion by some Tory MPs like Theresa May to keep the House of Lords amendments in. Plus the Court of Appeal's rejection of government plans to send migrants to Rwanda
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-661682801 -
Percentage wise the UK RC church has a higher percentage of abusers than the Church of England and Church of Scotland.Carnyx said:
But C of E has about 5 times as many congregations and communicants ...HYUFD said:
If you watched the Synod debate as I did the issue was those supposed to be running the Independent Report were not offering recommendations for the Church going forward to improve safeguarding as well as simply examining responsibility in old case.Stuartinromford said:
Though the reporting coming out of this week's Synod is not indicating a church that has got any sort of grip on the issue.HYUFD said:
Virtually no institution in the country, including the Conservative and Labour Parties, big corporations and hedge funds, the police, schools and universities, the Scouts, the NHS, the BBC and ITV, football clubs etc as well as religious bodies have a clean bill of health when it comes to sexual misconduct cases. Though safeguarding is improving relative to say the 1970sMiklosvar said:
Looking at the circumstances in which Sentamu has been sacked from his bishopric I won't be giving the C of E a clean bill of health.HYUFD said:
The C of E and the Church of Scotland replaced the Roman Catholic Church as the British state religions 500 years ago anywayCarnyx said:
FPT - but I was left wondering about the Metropolitan Police. And the Houses of Parliament. Scratching my head about those being sects, obscure or otherwise.Penddu2 said:It strikes me that the BBC is now the only organisation more protective of sex pests, perverts and rapists than the Catholic Church. Is it the new state religion?
https://www.thinkinganglicans.org.uk/isb-controversy-episode-9/
The Church of England having women priests and Bishops as well as male priests and Bishops unlike the Roman Catholic church does however also mean it will relatively speaking likely always have less abuse cases than the latter
Unfortunately the reality is men are far more likely to be sexual abusers than women are, whether they are religious or not0 -
I am not a fan of plastic grass but my late mum had my brother lay some on a very untidy old concrete patio she had - it made it feel a nicer space to sit out in the sun for what turned out to be her last summer.malcolmg said:
Carnyx, the crime is having plastic grass. What kind of cretin do you need to be to want that in preference to the real thing.Carnyx said:
Oh, she had the value of her house increased? Difficult to see where the crime is then.malcolmg said:
Was a story in paper last year , some woman had got up in morning to find someone had rolled teh lawn up and nicked it. Anyone with plastic grass should get minimum 3 years with no remission.twistedfirestopper3 said:
We're currently house hunting and it's been a real eye opener to see the number of places that have plastic grass. Way more than I'd have expected, and it really puts us off, as it'd have to be ripped up and proper lawn laid again. ICarnyx said:
THere's been much more emphasis lately in leaving meadows alone for the early months to let the insects have a chance. Parallel movement in gardening, too: not being anal about one's lawn (let alone replace it with plastic etc). Mrs C has been of that philosophy for decades and our lawnless front garden has been a chaotic mass of flowers since the snowdrops and crocuses - full of bumblebees and hoverflies, and butterflies. In contrast to the sometimes sterile plastic grass and hard core parking spaces elswehere on the same street.SouthamObserver said:If you are in search of positive news, let me give you some. The country around Sidmouth is currently buzzing with bees and butterflies. I think the decision to keep the grass long and let wild flowers grow in so many meadows, combined with recent rain, has brought them out to play. Not having a clue about nature I could be totally wrong. But I do know they are there because I can see them! Maybe it's only round here, but I hope not.
Edit: even the RHS is in on it, much to its credit.
https://www.rhs.org.uk/lawns/creating-wildflower-meadows
So there we are, my mum was a cretin in Malc's book. She'd have laughed at that.3 -
Except W3W is cr@p.turbotubbs said:
If only there was a simple way to locate things within a few metres, perhaps combinations of random words, assigned to a map of the globe. Might be worth investing in tech like that.JosiasJessop said:In other news:
Our little town has a lot of names based on 'Monkfield' in it, including an artery road, a primary school, a doctor's surgery, woodland etc. This was based on a 'Monkfield Farm' which preexisted the development; I think the original farmhouse is now the dentists.
St Neots, seven miles to the west, has several major housing developments ongoing. A new one is being built to the east of new 'Loves Farm' development, and is being called.... 'Monksfields'.
Which will, in no way, cause any confusion. No siree.
But it's more than that. Our local GP surgery is 'Monkfield Medical Practice'. It would be understandable to think that was situated in 'Monksfields', especially if spoken out loud. Someone in the new development gets asked: "Who's your GP?"
The answer: "We're at Monkfield GP."
And the questioner thinks that it's the GP surgery in Monkfields...
Of the Monkfield Primary School in Cambourne. Which will not be in Monkfields.
It's just a recipe for confusion because of the proximity of the two places.1 -
The Tory PM is a Hindu, the Tory Home Secretary is a Buddhist. May is a Christian however and the Lords vote against the Migration Bill was led by the Bishops.RochdalePioneers said:
Its what Jesus would do.SouthamObserver said:
Yep this Tory government not only believes in painting over Disney characters that might provide a scintilla of comfort to traumatised children, but also believes that vulnerable women trafficked to the UK to be sex slaves should be treated as criminals and either deported straight back into the arms of the criminals that trafficked them or sent to Rwanda. Makes you proud, doesn't it?HYUFD said:A majority of MPs last night voted to reject revisions on the illegal Migration Bill made by the Lords despite a rebellion by some Tory MPs like Theresa May to keep the House of Lords amendments in. Plus the Court of Appeal's rejection of government plans to send migrants to Rwanda
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66168280
Now of course there are Christians in favour of the Migration Bill but much of the Parliamentary opposition to it has been led by Christians0 -
So are you a Christian or a Tory on this one HY?HYUFD said:
The Tory PM is a Hindu, the Tory Home Secretary is a Buddhist. May is a Christian however and the Lords vote against the Migration Bill was led by the Bishops.RochdalePioneers said:
Its what Jesus would do.SouthamObserver said:
Yep this Tory government not only believes in painting over Disney characters that might provide a scintilla of comfort to traumatised children, but also believes that vulnerable women trafficked to the UK to be sex slaves should be treated as criminals and either deported straight back into the arms of the criminals that trafficked them or sent to Rwanda. Makes you proud, doesn't it?HYUFD said:A majority of MPs last night voted to reject revisions on the illegal Migration Bill made by the Lords despite a rebellion by some Tory MPs like Theresa May to keep the House of Lords amendments in. Plus the Court of Appeal's rejection of government plans to send migrants to Rwanda
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66168280
Now of course there are Christians in favour of the Migration Bill but much of the Parliamentary opposition to it has been led by Christians1 -
The mural story has cut through in a way nothing else on mistreatment of asylum seekers has. Really great example of how quite small but powerfully symbolic stories are critical for campaigns.SouthamObserver said:
Yep this Tory government not only believes in painting over Disney characters that might provide a scintilla of comfort to traumatised children, but also believes that vulnerable women trafficked to the UK to be sex slaves should be treated as criminals and either deported straight back into the arms of the criminals that trafficked them or sent to Rwanda. Makes you proud, doesn't it?HYUFD said:A majority of MPs last night voted to reject revisions on the illegal Migration Bill made by the Lords despite a rebellion by some Tory MPs like Theresa May to keep the House of Lords amendments in. Plus the Court of Appeal's rejection of government plans to send migrants to Rwanda
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66168280
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1678884624477442049
It's really not easy to extend the "harsh but necessary" comfort blanket to this. And Jenrick was made Immigration Minister to stop Suella going too far.0 -
And, lo, fury shall fall on those traumatised children and exploited women who, in their wickedness, darest hope for love and compassion from the British government. These are the words of the Tory Lord. Praise be. Glory unto him.RochdalePioneers said:
Its what Jesus would do.SouthamObserver said:
Yep this Tory government not only believes in painting over Disney characters that might provide a scintilla of comfort to traumatised children, but also believes that vulnerable women trafficked to the UK to be sex slaves should be treated as criminals and either deported straight back into the arms of the criminals that trafficked them or sent to Rwanda. Makes you proud, doesn't it?HYUFD said:A majority of MPs last night voted to reject revisions on the illegal Migration Bill made by the Lords despite a rebellion by some Tory MPs like Theresa May to keep the House of Lords amendments in. Plus the Court of Appeal's rejection of government plans to send migrants to Rwanda
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66168280
0 -
It’s more the mental bandwidth issues I worry about.Farooq said:
If you find yourself short of funds for betting, you could sell some of your shoesTheScreamingEagles said:He'll go October 31st 2024 or November 7th 2024 to really piss me and other political gamblers off.
A UK general election and US presidential election within days of each other will be a challenge.
The results could drag on for days.
I raised this issue back in January when I wrote a thread asking ‘Can you cope with two massive elections at the same time?’
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/01/01/can-you-cope-with-two-massive-elections-at-the-same-time/0 -
Never say never in politics. The last decade has shown us repeatedly that the politically impossible is actually possible. So however unlikely it feels, it is possible that *something* happens which completely upsets the current slide towards a thumping defeat.twistedfirestopper3 said:
It's impossible for things to get better in the time the Tories have left. Just the mortgage rate itself and the looming carnage in the housing market that that will bring will be enough without all the rest of the shitshow. Houses on Rightmove are all overpriced by at least 10% and are only going one way. Great news for me as a cash buyer, but existential for anyone that has to sell because they can't afford to stay in the property or has to move for personal or work issues. It's not going to pornhub, it's going to be a snuff flick.RochdalePioneers said:Morning all! Jan 25 is very possible. To go to the country means making a decision. If the polls continue to show that the Tories are going to be like a pornhub stepmom who "accidentally" got "stuck" under a bed, to call an election would be brave.
We know the game plan is two fold:
1: To wait for things to get better. The economy. Inflation, Trade Deals, Stopping the Boats. All these things need time, and seemingly a lot more time than the this year deadline that Dishi set himself
2: To engage in arse-spraying mayhem which so slanders Starmer and the Labour front bench that people are persuaded that a vote for the party of lies and corruption and incompetence actually is the better option actually.
Both of these need time. So the path of least resistance is *not* to call an election. Don't go to the country at all - let this parliament time itself out and the election be called by the mandarins. We could even have a "woke leftie enemies of the people blob lawyers" attack as the people's parliament is ended not by the government of the 17.4m, but by unelected mandarins.
The end result is the same - an election late January. Which would be *mental*. But this government and especially so many of the thick as mince idiots who were elected in 2019 are demonstrably idiots. So why not do the stupid? Johnson reduced himself to a minority and sent Geoffrey wotzit out to rage from the dispatch box against his own government, demanding that it be thrown from office. Mental. And post 2019 they are more mental...
If calling an early election means certain heavy defeat, why call an early election? Run it to the end.
We know what the narrative would be. The people's parliament. Very important things still to achieve (defeating woke leftie traitor judges to finally send people to Rwanda etc), Labour are impatient because they want to raise your taxes and increase debt and make things worse - the exact opposite of what we Tories have done of course. Its only remoaners and BBC perverts calling for an early election, they want to deviate your children and can't wait until the proper time.
Etc. Etc. Think what a Christmas pre-campaign could be like. "Steaky Starmer wants to give Christmas Presents to alien invaders. Lets think about our veterans!"0 -
Of course the EU are not going to help us (why would they now?) but we are largely dependent on the steps they take.DavidL said:
The EU have much bigger problems with immigration than we do because of the accidents of geography. Its bringing down governments there already. Why on earth should they help us with our smallish problems when they have much larger ones?Benpointer said:
Totally agree.DavidL said:What is this government trying to do?
We have the utterly doomed Stop the boats bill with the Rwanda option. Doomed, not because it will not pass but because it is a token gesture against the numbers now coming over. The Today program has been doing a series of longer reports about the boats problem in the Med. The pressure building up in Africa from rapidly growing populations and a huge amount of instability is immense. We only get a small secondary wave from this but the idea a policy in this country is going to stop it is frankly ridiculous.
Other than that the government is waiting for and hoping that inflation is going to fall. It will, but probably more slowly than thought by the Bank (again). The fall in inflation will eventually stop the reduction in real term incomes but any positive trend is going to be modest and has a lot of catching up to do after the last 18 months.
The next pledge was to reduce government debt. Not going to happen. Even if he really meant as a share of GDP very unlikely to happen.
And then there is shortening waiting lists in the NHS. Given the industrial unrest in the NHS with the forthcoming doctors' strikes this again looks out of reach.
It is a pretty modest platform for government and yet the scorecard looks unlikely to be a net positive. The paucity of ideas and ambition is palpable.
I caught one of those reports about the Med boat migrants on R4. Two things struck me:
1. The ubiquity of the English language is our blessing and our curse but in illegal immigration it works against us, badly. Most migrants want to get to an English-speaking country where they can at least get by.
2. Nothing meaningful or useful will happen without concerted, co-ordinated, action across Europe (effectively the EU). Such concerted action may not be possible but we cannot solve this in isolation.
This is a problem not just for today but for the next 30 years whilst the population of Africa peaks. Our debates about this are ludicrously parochial.
My point is a co-ordinated action not parochial nation-by-nation steps are required.0 -
For this interested in US constitutional history, an excellent article defending the legacy of the great dissenter.
We Shouldn’t Stop Talking About Justice John Marshall Harlan
Today, historical figures are held in deep suspicion, especially when cited in politics or law. But refusing to acknowledge the heroes of the past diminishes our own sense of what is possible.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/07/11/supreme-court-justice-marshall-harlan-001054600 -
It's not just Jenrick, Another minister sought to justify it in the Lords earlier this week. When two ministers are saying it, the government and the man who leads it own the policy fully. This is what Sunak's Tory party stands for.Stuartinromford said:
The mural story has cut through in a way nothing else on mistreatment of asylum seekers has. Really great example of how quite small but powerfully symbolic stories are critical for campaigns.SouthamObserver said:
Yep this Tory government not only believes in painting over Disney characters that might provide a scintilla of comfort to traumatised children, but also believes that vulnerable women trafficked to the UK to be sex slaves should be treated as criminals and either deported straight back into the arms of the criminals that trafficked them or sent to Rwanda. Makes you proud, doesn't it?HYUFD said:A majority of MPs last night voted to reject revisions on the illegal Migration Bill made by the Lords despite a rebellion by some Tory MPs like Theresa May to keep the House of Lords amendments in. Plus the Court of Appeal's rejection of government plans to send migrants to Rwanda
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66168280
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1678884624477442049
It's really not easy to extend the "harsh but necessary" comfort blanket to this. And Jenrick was made Immigration Minister to stop Suella going too far.
0 -
Actually I believe the Catholic Church has more regular communicants now although they probably still have fewer churches.Carnyx said:
But C of E has about 5 times as many congregations and communicants ...HYUFD said:
If you watched the Synod debate as I did the issue was those supposed to be running the Independent Report were not offering recommendations for the Church going forward to improve safeguarding as well as simply examining responsibility in old case.Stuartinromford said:
Though the reporting coming out of this week's Synod is not indicating a church that has got any sort of grip on the issue.HYUFD said:
Virtually no institution in the country, including the Conservative and Labour Parties, big corporations and hedge funds, the police, schools and universities, the Scouts, the NHS, the BBC and ITV, football clubs etc as well as religious bodies have a clean bill of health when it comes to sexual misconduct cases. Though safeguarding is improving relative to say the 1970sMiklosvar said:
Looking at the circumstances in which Sentamu has been sacked from his bishopric I won't be giving the C of E a clean bill of health.HYUFD said:
The C of E and the Church of Scotland replaced the Roman Catholic Church as the British state religions 500 years ago anywayCarnyx said:
FPT - but I was left wondering about the Metropolitan Police. And the Houses of Parliament. Scratching my head about those being sects, obscure or otherwise.Penddu2 said:It strikes me that the BBC is now the only organisation more protective of sex pests, perverts and rapists than the Catholic Church. Is it the new state religion?
https://www.thinkinganglicans.org.uk/isb-controversy-episode-9/
The Church of England having women priests and Bishops as well as male priests and Bishops unlike the Roman Catholic church does however also mean it will relatively speaking likely always have less abuse cases than the latter1 -
Indeed and I am planning on reseeding my front lawn with clover, drought resistant, needs less attention, and attractant to pollinatorsCarnyx said:
THere's been much more emphasis lately in leaving meadows alone for the early months to let the insects have a chance. Parallel movement in gardening, too: not being anal about one's lawn (let alone replace it with plastic etc). Mrs C has been of that philosophy for decades and our lawnless front garden has been a chaotic mass of flowers since the snowdrops and crocuses - full of bumblebees and hoverflies, and butterflies. In contrast to the sometimes sterile plastic grass and hard core parking spaces elswehere on the same street.SouthamObserver said:If you are in search of positive news, let me give you some. The country around Sidmouth is currently buzzing with bees and butterflies. I think the decision to keep the grass long and let wild flowers grow in so many meadows, combined with recent rain, has brought them out to play. Not having a clue about nature I could be totally wrong. But I do know they are there because I can see them! Maybe it's only round here, but I hope not.
Edit: even the RHS is in on it, much to its credit.
https://www.rhs.org.uk/lawns/creating-wildflower-meadows1 -
Fergal Keane’s journey round the UK ‘Forgotten Britain’ visiting and revisiting folk struggling at the edge of our economy is interesting and moving in parts. The welder who spent his working life in a Govan shipyard (and now has MS) described it as a destructive love affair that he now realises he has to end out of self preservation.Carnyx said:O/T but some very striking photos:
https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2023/jul/12/janine-wiedel-images-of-flaming-1970s-industrial-britain
And a couple of comments caught my eye:
"My father was a die caster at the Birmid in Smethwick and I remember the burn holes in his trousers and shirts from the molten metal.
My nan and my mum both worked at Bullpitts round the corner from the jewellery quarter making Swan kettles, saucepans teapots etc. [...] My mum would spend lots of time taking the swarf out of her hands and fingers each evening.
A brass part on my nan's machine had to be replaced, they presented it to her as she had over many years left imprints in the brass of her grip on it. My brother still has this part."
and
"As for drinking at work, I worked in a foundry. As the youngest on the shop floor I would be sent to the nearest pub with two steel buckets to fill up with mild beer. The gaffers didn't mind because we all only drank mild (a less potent brew) and we soon sweated it out. Thinking back, the conditions were atrocious.....but the camaraderie and the banter was second to none. We thought it a triumph when showers were fitted in the changing room. We always let the lads who had lost fingers or had been badly burned go first in the showers. Etiquette among men considered subhuman by the office staff."1 -
Has OGH booked his October/November 2024 holiday yet? Just asking.TheScreamingEagles said:
It’s more the mental bandwidth issues I worry about.Farooq said:
If you find yourself short of funds for betting, you could sell some of your shoesTheScreamingEagles said:He'll go October 31st 2024 or November 7th 2024 to really piss me and other political gamblers off.
A UK general election and US presidential election within days of each other will be a challenge.
The results could drag on for days.
I raised this issue back in January when I wrote a thread asking ‘Can you cope with two massive elections at the same time?’
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/01/01/can-you-cope-with-two-massive-elections-at-the-same-time/1 -
To be fair, the same issue would have happened without the FTPA as you'd still be hitting the point at which an election was legally mandated.Sandpit said:
Good question.ydoethur said:
Does the Civil Contingencies Act contain a clause allowing elections to be postponed? Not that Johnson used the Act, of course, because he didn't seem to know it existed, but May might have done.BartholomewRoberts said:
In a parallel universe where the FTPA had actually done it's job and May hadn't called an early election (and thus 2019 hadn't happened either) the 2015 Parliament would have expired during COVID lockdown.Nigelb said:.
No.Mexicanpete said:...
Is there provision for a Royal Prerogative extension anymore? We are at proxy war with Russia.SouthamObserver said:I agree with Mike. Sunak will hold on until the law compels him to go to the people. Unless he can find a way to change the law.
Another two years might be handy.
And even if there were, it wouldn't happen.
In the case of extreme national emergency (not sure what would be extreme enough, but it would have to be something in the order of a nuclear attack), there'd be a national coalition government, and a Parliamentary vote to postpone the election.
Most likely still with Jeremy Corbyn as LOTO.
A Parliament expiring in May 2020, under the FTPA, would have been chaos, dissolved just as the crisis hit the peak. They’d have had to find a way to extend it, or set up a government of national unity.
The 2020 local elections were postponed by Act of Parliament.
Everyone did appear somewhat scared of using the CCA, as if it were some sort of Rubicon that should never be crossed. Which IMHO was the right decision, given that Parliament could find ways of sitting and most of the CS were able to continue their work. Best save the very big hammer, for if Parliament couldn’t sit.0 -
Might be worth looking at the international calendar for any world leader type events that Sunak might want to go to before he's booted out by the electorate. I guess there's not likely to be much going on in the autumn of a US Presidential election year, though. He may also believe that the longer he can keep a Labour Chancellor away from the Treasury, the better.Sandpit said:No way he goes for an election in January, when everyone is partied out and there’s too much month left at the end of the money.
Not to mention the activists, who have little intention of ruining their own Christmas, nor that of their constituents by banging on doors.
October ‘24 for me. Before the clocks go back.
For what it's worth, I think that they will come to believe that a relentlessly negative campaign - "If you think this is bad, just imagine how much worse Labour will make it." - is their best bet of reducing the damage, so an election in the grim winter months would fit with that. Though they'd want to give themselves a long campaign to drive the message home.
I think they might go for a late November election. Personally I think November is the most relentlessly grim month in the British calendar. They could avoid having to have a party conference too, with a long campaign, or else use the party conference as the launching pad for the election campaign.0 -
Yep. Its just that plankists like your good self spout false Christianity moralism whilst doing things so awful that the leaders of your own church detail just how immoral and unchristian and unBritish these policies are.HYUFD said:
The Tory PM is a Hindu, the Tory Home Secretary is a Buddhist. May is a Christian however and the Lords vote against the Migration Bill was led by the Bishops.RochdalePioneers said:
Its what Jesus would do.SouthamObserver said:
Yep this Tory government not only believes in painting over Disney characters that might provide a scintilla of comfort to traumatised children, but also believes that vulnerable women trafficked to the UK to be sex slaves should be treated as criminals and either deported straight back into the arms of the criminals that trafficked them or sent to Rwanda. Makes you proud, doesn't it?HYUFD said:A majority of MPs last night voted to reject revisions on the illegal Migration Bill made by the Lords despite a rebellion by some Tory MPs like Theresa May to keep the House of Lords amendments in. Plus the Court of Appeal's rejection of government plans to send migrants to Rwanda
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66168280
Now of course there are Christians in favour of the Migration Bill but much of the Parliamentary opposition to it has been led by Christians
So, alleged Christian. Supporting the policies denounced by your own church. Whilst claiming the holier-than-thou moral high ground. The policy and its implementation is disgusting, inhumane and immoral. According to the Archbishop of Canterbury. And you support it.0 -
2. Won’t happen. All the EU governments have immigration issues. People desperate to get into someone else’s country is an easier political problem than them wanting to stay.Benpointer said:
Totally agree.DavidL said:What is this government trying to do?
We have the utterly doomed Stop the boats bill with the Rwanda option. Doomed, not because it will not pass but because it is a token gesture against the numbers now coming over. The Today program has been doing a series of longer reports about the boats problem in the Med. The pressure building up in Africa from rapidly growing populations and a huge amount of instability is immense. We only get a small secondary wave from this but the idea a policy in this country is going to stop it is frankly ridiculous.
Other than that the government is waiting for and hoping that inflation is going to fall. It will, but probably more slowly than thought by the Bank (again). The fall in inflation will eventually stop the reduction in real term incomes but any positive trend is going to be modest and has a lot of catching up to do after the last 18 months.
The next pledge was to reduce government debt. Not going to happen. Even if he really meant as a share of GDP very unlikely to happen.
And then there is shortening waiting lists in the NHS. Given the industrial unrest in the NHS with the forthcoming doctors' strikes this again looks out of reach.
It is a pretty modest platform for government and yet the scorecard looks unlikely to be a net positive. The paucity of ideas and ambition is palpable.
I caught one of those reports about the Med boat migrants on R4. Two things struck me:
1. The ubiquity of the English language is our blessing and our curse but in illegal immigration it works against us, badly. Most migrants want to get to an English-speaking country where they can at least get by.
2. Nothing meaningful or useful will happen without concerted, co-ordinated, action across Europe (effectively the EU). Such concerted action may not be possible but we cannot solve this in isolation.
Hence French police smiling on the beach as the RIBs roll past.
This would require EU governments spending political capital at home to make the U.K. happy. Short of access to the OnlyFans accounts of all the leading politicians in that country, why would they do that?0 -
Sounds rather more like that's from the Old Testament, the hitherto unknown Book of JenrickSouthamObserver said:
And, lo, fury shall fall on those traumatised children and exploited women who, in their wickedness, darest hope for love and compassion from the British government. These are the words of the Tory Lord. Praise be. Glory unto him.RochdalePioneers said:
Its what Jesus would do.SouthamObserver said:
Yep this Tory government not only believes in painting over Disney characters that might provide a scintilla of comfort to traumatised children, but also believes that vulnerable women trafficked to the UK to be sex slaves should be treated as criminals and either deported straight back into the arms of the criminals that trafficked them or sent to Rwanda. Makes you proud, doesn't it?HYUFD said:A majority of MPs last night voted to reject revisions on the illegal Migration Bill made by the Lords despite a rebellion by some Tory MPs like Theresa May to keep the House of Lords amendments in. Plus the Court of Appeal's rejection of government plans to send migrants to Rwanda
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-661682802 -
To be fair to Malcolm, there's a difference between putting fake grass on top of concrete and putting it on top of soil or in place of actual grass.Benpointer said:
I am not a fan of plastic grass but my late mum had my brother lay some on a very untidy old concrete patio she had - it made it feel a nicer space to sit out in the sun for what turned out to be her last summer.malcolmg said:
Carnyx, the crime is having plastic grass. What kind of cretin do you need to be to want that in preference to the real thing.Carnyx said:
Oh, she had the value of her house increased? Difficult to see where the crime is then.malcolmg said:
Was a story in paper last year , some woman had got up in morning to find someone had rolled teh lawn up and nicked it. Anyone with plastic grass should get minimum 3 years with no remission.twistedfirestopper3 said:
We're currently house hunting and it's been a real eye opener to see the number of places that have plastic grass. Way more than I'd have expected, and it really puts us off, as it'd have to be ripped up and proper lawn laid again. ICarnyx said:
THere's been much more emphasis lately in leaving meadows alone for the early months to let the insects have a chance. Parallel movement in gardening, too: not being anal about one's lawn (let alone replace it with plastic etc). Mrs C has been of that philosophy for decades and our lawnless front garden has been a chaotic mass of flowers since the snowdrops and crocuses - full of bumblebees and hoverflies, and butterflies. In contrast to the sometimes sterile plastic grass and hard core parking spaces elswehere on the same street.SouthamObserver said:If you are in search of positive news, let me give you some. The country around Sidmouth is currently buzzing with bees and butterflies. I think the decision to keep the grass long and let wild flowers grow in so many meadows, combined with recent rain, has brought them out to play. Not having a clue about nature I could be totally wrong. But I do know they are there because I can see them! Maybe it's only round here, but I hope not.
Edit: even the RHS is in on it, much to its credit.
https://www.rhs.org.uk/lawns/creating-wildflower-meadows
So there we are, my mum was a cretin in Malc's book. She'd have laughed at that.
Fake grass where there would otherwise be nothing (which includes the field at Thing 2's school right now) is one thing. Screwing over nature because you can't be bothered to mow the lawn is just depressing.3 -
No but I have offered to pay for a 8Benpointer said:
Has OGH booked his October/November 2024 holiday yet? Just asking.TheScreamingEagles said:
It’s more the mental bandwidth issues I worry about.Farooq said:
If you find yourself short of funds for betting, you could sell some of your shoesTheScreamingEagles said:He'll go October 31st 2024 or November 7th 2024 to really piss me and other political gamblers off.
A UK general election and US presidential election within days of each other will be a challenge.
The results could drag on for days.
I raised this issue back in January when I wrote a thread asking ‘Can you cope with two massive elections at the same time?’
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/01/01/can-you-cope-with-two-massive-elections-at-the-same-time/
week around the world cruise for OGH in Oct/Nov 2024.
For the LOLs.1 -
Yes, but think of the betting opportunities...ydoethur said:
And it was a dumb idea at the time, and a dumb idea now.Foxy said:
Annual elections for Parliament is the only outstanding point from the Peoples Charter of 1838.ydoethur said:
'Never' is too strong a word. Until 1688 (I suppose technically 1641) parliaments were called and dismissed at the pleasure of the monarch so elections were irregular. The Triennial Act 1641 stated that there must be elections every three years in England. Ironically, the first parliament elected under it sat for nineteen years. In 1688 one of the clauses under which William of Orange was made King by Parliament was that he would honour the triennial acts.BartholomewRoberts said:
There never was one, was there?Mexicanpete said:...
Is there provision for a Royal Prerogative extension anymore? We are at proxy war with Russia.SouthamObserver said:I agree with Mike. Sunak will hold on until the law compels him to go to the people. Unless he can find a way to change the law.
Another two years might be handy.
In WWI and WWII a series of Acts extending Parliament were passed.
In 1715 that was changed to every seven years for the whole of Great Britain.
In 1911 it was changed to every five years.
So I suppose you could say the monarch *did* have that power until the Civil War, in law, and until the Orange Revolution, in practice.
Wiser monarchs than Charles I of course tended to exercise that power with restraint.
They're short term enough when we have elections every five years.2 -
I think Ben's point is more about coordinated action on the boats crossing the Med rather than the Channel.Malmesbury said:
2. Won’t happen. All the EU governments have immigration issues. People desperate to get into someone else’s country is an easier political problem than them wanting to stay.Benpointer said:
Totally agree.DavidL said:What is this government trying to do?
We have the utterly doomed Stop the boats bill with the Rwanda option. Doomed, not because it will not pass but because it is a token gesture against the numbers now coming over. The Today program has been doing a series of longer reports about the boats problem in the Med. The pressure building up in Africa from rapidly growing populations and a huge amount of instability is immense. We only get a small secondary wave from this but the idea a policy in this country is going to stop it is frankly ridiculous.
Other than that the government is waiting for and hoping that inflation is going to fall. It will, but probably more slowly than thought by the Bank (again). The fall in inflation will eventually stop the reduction in real term incomes but any positive trend is going to be modest and has a lot of catching up to do after the last 18 months.
The next pledge was to reduce government debt. Not going to happen. Even if he really meant as a share of GDP very unlikely to happen.
And then there is shortening waiting lists in the NHS. Given the industrial unrest in the NHS with the forthcoming doctors' strikes this again looks out of reach.
It is a pretty modest platform for government and yet the scorecard looks unlikely to be a net positive. The paucity of ideas and ambition is palpable.
I caught one of those reports about the Med boat migrants on R4. Two things struck me:
1. The ubiquity of the English language is our blessing and our curse but in illegal immigration it works against us, badly. Most migrants want to get to an English-speaking country where they can at least get by.
2. Nothing meaningful or useful will happen without concerted, co-ordinated, action across Europe (effectively the EU). Such concerted action may not be possible but we cannot solve this in isolation.
Hence French police smiling on the beach as the RIBs roll past.
This would require EU governments spending political capital at home to make the U.K. happy. Short of access to the OnlyFans accounts of all the leading politicians in that country, why would they do that?0 -
I'd expect real incomes to be growing pretty strongly by the Autumn, but as you say, there's quite a bit of catch up to be done.DavidL said:What is this government trying to do?
We have the utterly doomed Stop the boats bill with the Rwanda option. Doomed, not because it will not pass but because it is a token gesture against the numbers now coming over. The Today program has been doing a series of longer reports about the boats problem in the Med. The pressure building up in Africa from rapidly growing populations and a huge amount of instability is immense. We only get a small secondary wave from this but the idea a policy in this country is going to stop it is frankly ridiculous.
Other than that the government is waiting for and hoping that inflation is going to fall. It will, but probably more slowly than thought by the Bank (again). The fall in inflation will eventually stop the reduction in real term incomes but any positive trend is going to be modest and has a lot of catching up to do after the last 18 months.
The next pledge was to reduce government debt. Not going to happen. Even if he really meant as a share of GDP very unlikely to happen.
And then there is shortening waiting lists in the NHS. Given the industrial unrest in the NHS with the forthcoming doctors' strikes this again looks out of reach.
It is a pretty modest platform for government and yet the scorecard looks unlikely to be a net positive. The paucity of ideas and ambition is palpable.
My guess is Mediterranean governments will be increasingly brutal.0 -
If they had made it Four or Five Words, with better word lists, a checksum and a better algorithm to deal with the neighbouring issues… but that would have required reading the history of codes.JosiasJessop said:
Except W3W is cr@p.turbotubbs said:
If only there was a simple way to locate things within a few metres, perhaps combinations of random words, assigned to a map of the globe. Might be worth investing in tech like that.JosiasJessop said:In other news:
Our little town has a lot of names based on 'Monkfield' in it, including an artery road, a primary school, a doctor's surgery, woodland etc. This was based on a 'Monkfield Farm' which preexisted the development; I think the original farmhouse is now the dentists.
St Neots, seven miles to the west, has several major housing developments ongoing. A new one is being built to the east of new 'Loves Farm' development, and is being called.... 'Monksfields'.
Which will, in no way, cause any confusion. No siree.
But it's more than that. Our local GP surgery is 'Monkfield Medical Practice'. It would be understandable to think that was situated in 'Monksfields', especially if spoken out loud. Someone in the new development gets asked: "Who's your GP?"
The answer: "We're at Monkfield GP."
And the questioner thinks that it's the GP surgery in Monkfields...
Of the Monkfield Primary School in Cambourne. Which will not be in Monkfields.
It's just a recipe for confusion because of the proximity of the two places.4 -
Worth reminding ourselves that part of the reason the French are happy to let them go is that France receives roughly twice as many asylum seekers as we do. The right whine and lie about first safe country, and that they should claim asylum somewhere else. Most already do.Malmesbury said:
2. Won’t happen. All the EU governments have immigration issues. People desperate to get into someone else’s country is an easier political problem than them wanting to stay.Benpointer said:
Totally agree.DavidL said:What is this government trying to do?
We have the utterly doomed Stop the boats bill with the Rwanda option. Doomed, not because it will not pass but because it is a token gesture against the numbers now coming over. The Today program has been doing a series of longer reports about the boats problem in the Med. The pressure building up in Africa from rapidly growing populations and a huge amount of instability is immense. We only get a small secondary wave from this but the idea a policy in this country is going to stop it is frankly ridiculous.
Other than that the government is waiting for and hoping that inflation is going to fall. It will, but probably more slowly than thought by the Bank (again). The fall in inflation will eventually stop the reduction in real term incomes but any positive trend is going to be modest and has a lot of catching up to do after the last 18 months.
The next pledge was to reduce government debt. Not going to happen. Even if he really meant as a share of GDP very unlikely to happen.
And then there is shortening waiting lists in the NHS. Given the industrial unrest in the NHS with the forthcoming doctors' strikes this again looks out of reach.
It is a pretty modest platform for government and yet the scorecard looks unlikely to be a net positive. The paucity of ideas and ambition is palpable.
I caught one of those reports about the Med boat migrants on R4. Two things struck me:
1. The ubiquity of the English language is our blessing and our curse but in illegal immigration it works against us, badly. Most migrants want to get to an English-speaking country where they can at least get by.
2. Nothing meaningful or useful will happen without concerted, co-ordinated, action across Europe (effectively the EU). Such concerted action may not be possible but we cannot solve this in isolation.
Hence French police smiling on the beach as the RIBs roll past.
This would require EU governments spending political capital at home to make the U.K. happy. Short of access to the OnlyFans accounts of all the leading politicians in that country, why would they do that?2 -
We should start pricing such things in the TSE Shoe index.TheScreamingEagles said:
No but I have offered to pay for a 8Benpointer said:
Has OGH booked his October/November 2024 holiday yet? Just asking.TheScreamingEagles said:
It’s more the mental bandwidth issues I worry about.Farooq said:
If you find yourself short of funds for betting, you could sell some of your shoesTheScreamingEagles said:He'll go October 31st 2024 or November 7th 2024 to really piss me and other political gamblers off.
A UK general election and US presidential election within days of each other will be a challenge.
The results could drag on for days.
I raised this issue back in January when I wrote a thread asking ‘Can you cope with two massive elections at the same time?’
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/01/01/can-you-cope-with-two-massive-elections-at-the-same-time/
week around the world cruise for OGH in Oct/Nov 2024.
For the LOLs.
How many pairs of shoes would you need to sell to pay for an 8 week round the world cruise? Two?0 -
For a while now, my one-sentence summary of the political climate of the 2030s has been "drone fleets over the Med". With loud enough speakers, they can issue warnings to turn around, and count down to what happens if you don't.Sean_F said:
I'd expect real incomes to be growing pretty strongly by the Autumn, but as you say, there's quite a bit of catch up to be done.DavidL said:What is this government trying to do?
We have the utterly doomed Stop the boats bill with the Rwanda option. Doomed, not because it will not pass but because it is a token gesture against the numbers now coming over. The Today program has been doing a series of longer reports about the boats problem in the Med. The pressure building up in Africa from rapidly growing populations and a huge amount of instability is immense. We only get a small secondary wave from this but the idea a policy in this country is going to stop it is frankly ridiculous.
Other than that the government is waiting for and hoping that inflation is going to fall. It will, but probably more slowly than thought by the Bank (again). The fall in inflation will eventually stop the reduction in real term incomes but any positive trend is going to be modest and has a lot of catching up to do after the last 18 months.
The next pledge was to reduce government debt. Not going to happen. Even if he really meant as a share of GDP very unlikely to happen.
And then there is shortening waiting lists in the NHS. Given the industrial unrest in the NHS with the forthcoming doctors' strikes this again looks out of reach.
It is a pretty modest platform for government and yet the scorecard looks unlikely to be a net positive. The paucity of ideas and ambition is palpable.
My guess is Mediterranean governments will be increasingly brutal.0 -
Correct. I should have been clearer.rcs1000 said:
I think Ben's point is more about coordinated action on the boats crossing the Med rather than the Channel.Malmesbury said:
2. Won’t happen. All the EU governments have immigration issues. People desperate to get into someone else’s country is an easier political problem than them wanting to stay.Benpointer said:
Totally agree.DavidL said:What is this government trying to do?
We have the utterly doomed Stop the boats bill with the Rwanda option. Doomed, not because it will not pass but because it is a token gesture against the numbers now coming over. The Today program has been doing a series of longer reports about the boats problem in the Med. The pressure building up in Africa from rapidly growing populations and a huge amount of instability is immense. We only get a small secondary wave from this but the idea a policy in this country is going to stop it is frankly ridiculous.
Other than that the government is waiting for and hoping that inflation is going to fall. It will, but probably more slowly than thought by the Bank (again). The fall in inflation will eventually stop the reduction in real term incomes but any positive trend is going to be modest and has a lot of catching up to do after the last 18 months.
The next pledge was to reduce government debt. Not going to happen. Even if he really meant as a share of GDP very unlikely to happen.
And then there is shortening waiting lists in the NHS. Given the industrial unrest in the NHS with the forthcoming doctors' strikes this again looks out of reach.
It is a pretty modest platform for government and yet the scorecard looks unlikely to be a net positive. The paucity of ideas and ambition is palpable.
I caught one of those reports about the Med boat migrants on R4. Two things struck me:
1. The ubiquity of the English language is our blessing and our curse but in illegal immigration it works against us, badly. Most migrants want to get to an English-speaking country where they can at least get by.
2. Nothing meaningful or useful will happen without concerted, co-ordinated, action across Europe (effectively the EU). Such concerted action may not be possible but we cannot solve this in isolation.
Hence French police smiling on the beach as the RIBs roll past.
This would require EU governments spending political capital at home to make the U.K. happy. Short of access to the OnlyFans accounts of all the leading politicians in that country, why would they do that?0 -
'Paul Mason is considering standing against Jeremy Corbyn for Labour in Islington North.
Understand he has not ruled out applying to be Starmer's challenger to any JC independent run'
https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1679007201174667265?s=200 -
Has anyone asked ChatGPT what to do? Ai being the answer to everything, and all that.rjk said:
For a while now, my one-sentence summary of the political climate of the 2030s has been "drone fleets over the Med". With loud enough speakers, they can issue warnings to turn around, and count down to what happens if you don't.Sean_F said:
I'd expect real incomes to be growing pretty strongly by the Autumn, but as you say, there's quite a bit of catch up to be done.DavidL said:What is this government trying to do?
We have the utterly doomed Stop the boats bill with the Rwanda option. Doomed, not because it will not pass but because it is a token gesture against the numbers now coming over. The Today program has been doing a series of longer reports about the boats problem in the Med. The pressure building up in Africa from rapidly growing populations and a huge amount of instability is immense. We only get a small secondary wave from this but the idea a policy in this country is going to stop it is frankly ridiculous.
Other than that the government is waiting for and hoping that inflation is going to fall. It will, but probably more slowly than thought by the Bank (again). The fall in inflation will eventually stop the reduction in real term incomes but any positive trend is going to be modest and has a lot of catching up to do after the last 18 months.
The next pledge was to reduce government debt. Not going to happen. Even if he really meant as a share of GDP very unlikely to happen.
And then there is shortening waiting lists in the NHS. Given the industrial unrest in the NHS with the forthcoming doctors' strikes this again looks out of reach.
It is a pretty modest platform for government and yet the scorecard looks unlikely to be a net positive. The paucity of ideas and ambition is palpable.
My guess is Mediterranean governments will be increasingly brutal.0 -
But they have a plan in place for that.rcs1000 said:
I think Ben's point is more about coordinated action on the boats crossing the Med rather than the Channel.Malmesbury said:
2. Won’t happen. All the EU governments have immigration issues. People desperate to get into someone else’s country is an easier political problem than them wanting to stay.Benpointer said:
Totally agree.DavidL said:What is this government trying to do?
We have the utterly doomed Stop the boats bill with the Rwanda option. Doomed, not because it will not pass but because it is a token gesture against the numbers now coming over. The Today program has been doing a series of longer reports about the boats problem in the Med. The pressure building up in Africa from rapidly growing populations and a huge amount of instability is immense. We only get a small secondary wave from this but the idea a policy in this country is going to stop it is frankly ridiculous.
Other than that the government is waiting for and hoping that inflation is going to fall. It will, but probably more slowly than thought by the Bank (again). The fall in inflation will eventually stop the reduction in real term incomes but any positive trend is going to be modest and has a lot of catching up to do after the last 18 months.
The next pledge was to reduce government debt. Not going to happen. Even if he really meant as a share of GDP very unlikely to happen.
And then there is shortening waiting lists in the NHS. Given the industrial unrest in the NHS with the forthcoming doctors' strikes this again looks out of reach.
It is a pretty modest platform for government and yet the scorecard looks unlikely to be a net positive. The paucity of ideas and ambition is palpable.
I caught one of those reports about the Med boat migrants on R4. Two things struck me:
1. The ubiquity of the English language is our blessing and our curse but in illegal immigration it works against us, badly. Most migrants want to get to an English-speaking country where they can at least get by.
2. Nothing meaningful or useful will happen without concerted, co-ordinated, action across Europe (effectively the EU). Such concerted action may not be possible but we cannot solve this in isolation.
Hence French police smiling on the beach as the RIBs roll past.
This would require EU governments spending political capital at home to make the U.K. happy. Short of access to the OnlyFans accounts of all the leading politicians in that country, why would they do that?
Perhaps we should do a deal deal (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QFRczUhjhU4) with the EU/Libya.
We pay the Libyan, per head, for the pick of their collection of immigrants.
This will cause the Libyans to redouble their efforts to expand their collection. Inetrantional waters. To sort out the legality - some Letters of Marque?
We can use the unpaid labour to bring down wage inflation in the fields, sandwich shops and even the NHS - bet there are a few doctors and nurses in there.
The promise of sending them back to their holiday in Libya will make them particularly happy to be subservient waiters in restaurants.
1) The EU is happy - illegal migrants reduced
2) Business happy - cheap labour
3) Open borders liberals happy - more migration
4) Posh restraint frequenters happy - more subservience
5) Libyan "Coastguard" happy - more business.
All I want for my genius is statue. I understand there is a space or two around Bristol Docks.0 -
BTW, you may remember the story the other day about a Russian submarine commander that got assassinated during his morning run.
Allegedly, he was posting his runs publicly on Strava.
ISTR our military has had issues with this; it must be a far more serious breach of personal security during wartime...0 -
A
It is alleged that his posts were "liked" by an account under the same name as the head of Ukrainian Intelligence.JosiasJessop said:BTW, you may remember the story the other day about a Russian submarine commander that got assassinated during his morning run.
Allegedly, he was posting his runs publicly on Strava.
ISTR our military has had issues with this; it must be a far more serious breach of personal security during wartime...1 -
Should really be how many pairs of shoes would TSE stop himself from buying to pay for an 8 week round the world cruise: rough guess a dozen brace of Louis Vuittons or Church’s.RochdalePioneers said:
We should start pricing such things in the TSE Shoe index.TheScreamingEagles said:
No but I have offered to pay for a 8Benpointer said:
Has OGH booked his October/November 2024 holiday yet? Just asking.TheScreamingEagles said:
It’s more the mental bandwidth issues I worry about.Farooq said:
If you find yourself short of funds for betting, you could sell some of your shoesTheScreamingEagles said:He'll go October 31st 2024 or November 7th 2024 to really piss me and other political gamblers off.
A UK general election and US presidential election within days of each other will be a challenge.
The results could drag on for days.
I raised this issue back in January when I wrote a thread asking ‘Can you cope with two massive elections at the same time?’
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/01/01/can-you-cope-with-two-massive-elections-at-the-same-time/
week around the world cruise for OGH in Oct/Nov 2024.
For the LOLs.
How many pairs of shoes would you need to sell to pay for an 8 week round the world cruise? Two?
High end footwear is one of these areas where brands take the piss. Another thing to blame on Russian oligarchs and crims I’d suggest.1 -
He was apparently working in ‘recuitment’ for the Russian military. Something that’s increasingly becoming non-voluntary, for any young men without the resources to make themselves invisible.JosiasJessop said:BTW, you may remember the story the other day about a Russian submarine commander that got assassinated during his morning run.
Allegedly, he was posting his runs publicly on Strava.
ISTR our military has had issues with this; it must be a far more serious breach of personal security during wartime...
Imagine being a valuable military target, also hated among many in your own community, running the same route every day at the same time, then posting it online for the world to see. Whether it was Russian locals or Ukranian spooks who got him first, I’d record it as a suicide.0 -
The truly astonishing thing about the Russian invasion is just how inept their security protocols have been.Malmesbury said:A
It is alleged that his posts were "liked" by an account under the same name as the head of Ukrainian Intelligence.JosiasJessop said:BTW, you may remember the story the other day about a Russian submarine commander that got assassinated during his morning run.
Allegedly, he was posting his runs publicly on Strava.
ISTR our military has had issues with this; it must be a far more serious breach of personal security during wartime...
Even I am more careful about my data than that and nobody has any reason to assassinate me.2 -
I’m currently on a moratorium on buying footwear.Theuniondivvie said:
Should really be how many pairs of shoes would TSE stop himself from buying to pay for an 8 week round the world cruise: rough guess a dozen Louis Vuittons or Church’s.RochdalePioneers said:
We should start pricing such things in the TSE Shoe index.TheScreamingEagles said:
No but I have offered to pay for a 8Benpointer said:
Has OGH booked his October/November 2024 holiday yet? Just asking.TheScreamingEagles said:
It’s more the mental bandwidth issues I worry about.Farooq said:
If you find yourself short of funds for betting, you could sell some of your shoesTheScreamingEagles said:He'll go October 31st 2024 or November 7th 2024 to really piss me and other political gamblers off.
A UK general election and US presidential election within days of each other will be a challenge.
The results could drag on for days.
I raised this issue back in January when I wrote a thread asking ‘Can you cope with two massive elections at the same time?’
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/01/01/can-you-cope-with-two-massive-elections-at-the-same-time/
week around the world cruise for OGH in Oct/Nov 2024.
For the LOLs.
How many pairs of shoes would you need to sell to pay for an 8 week round the world cruise? Two?
High end footwear is one of these areas where brands take the piss. Another thing to blame on Russian oligarchs and crims I’d suggest.
I have 24 (twenty-four) wearable pairs of footwear.
1 -
A 'secret' base in Afghanistan was located by all of the circular strava runs in the middle of nowhereJosiasJessop said:Allegedly, he was posting his runs publicly on Strava.
ISTR our military has had issues with this; it must be a far more serious breach of personal security during wartime...0 -
I don't believe so, no.ydoethur said:
Does the Civil Contingencies Act contain a clause allowing elections to be postponed? Not that Johnson used the Act, of course, because he didn't seem to know it existed, but May might have done.BartholomewRoberts said:
In a parallel universe where the FTPA had actually done it's job and May hadn't called an early election (and thus 2019 hadn't happened either) the 2015 Parliament would have expired during COVID lockdown.Nigelb said:.
No.Mexicanpete said:...
Is there provision for a Royal Prerogative extension anymore? We are at proxy war with Russia.SouthamObserver said:I agree with Mike. Sunak will hold on until the law compels him to go to the people. Unless he can find a way to change the law.
Another two years might be handy.
And even if there were, it wouldn't happen.
In the case of extreme national emergency (not sure what would be extreme enough, but it would have to be something in the order of a nuclear attack), there'd be a national coalition government, and a Parliamentary vote to postpone the election.
Most likely still with Jeremy Corbyn as LOTO.
Parliament would need to pass an extension Act as it did during the World Wars.0 -
Once again, this stuff was talked about for years - online personal security. This is just one of the first wars where it has actually become an issue.Sandpit said:
He was apparently working in ‘recuitment’ for the Russian military. Something that’s increasingly becoming non-voluntary, for any young men without the resources to make themselves invisible.JosiasJessop said:BTW, you may remember the story the other day about a Russian submarine commander that got assassinated during his morning run.
Allegedly, he was posting his runs publicly on Strava.
ISTR our military has had issues with this; it must be a far more serious breach of personal security during wartime...
Imagine being a valuable military target, also hated among many in your own community, running the same route every day at the same time, then posting it online for the world to see. Whether it was Russian locals or Ukranian spooks who got him first, I’d record it as a suicide.
At a guess, this guy is going to become a slide in the PowerPoint presentation "Why online personal security is important" that many organisations give.2 -
@Cyclefree must be wondering how you manage with so fewTheScreamingEagles said:
I’m currently on a moratorium on buying footwear.Theuniondivvie said:
Should really be how many pairs of shoes would TSE stop himself from buying to pay for an 8 week round the world cruise: rough guess a dozen Louis Vuittons or Church’s.RochdalePioneers said:
We should start pricing such things in the TSE Shoe index.TheScreamingEagles said:
No but I have offered to pay for a 8Benpointer said:
Has OGH booked his October/November 2024 holiday yet? Just asking.TheScreamingEagles said:
It’s more the mental bandwidth issues I worry about.Farooq said:
If you find yourself short of funds for betting, you could sell some of your shoesTheScreamingEagles said:He'll go October 31st 2024 or November 7th 2024 to really piss me and other political gamblers off.
A UK general election and US presidential election within days of each other will be a challenge.
The results could drag on for days.
I raised this issue back in January when I wrote a thread asking ‘Can you cope with two massive elections at the same time?’
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/01/01/can-you-cope-with-two-massive-elections-at-the-same-time/
week around the world cruise for OGH in Oct/Nov 2024.
For the LOLs.
How many pairs of shoes would you need to sell to pay for an 8 week round the world cruise? Two?
High end footwear is one of these areas where brands take the piss. Another thing to blame on Russian oligarchs and crims I’d suggest.
I have 24 (twenty-four) wearable pairs of footwear.
2 -
Can we open a book on whether you can make it the whole month?TheScreamingEagles said:I’m currently on a moratorium on buying footwear.
1 -
Tories I speak to seem to think autumn '24 is the most likely date. Some say they'll take the temperature at the locals and plan from there. Others say going to the end makes you look like a loser like Brown and Major. Going earlier could save a couple of seats just by not looking desperate.1
-
Plus using unsecured phones on local networks. And publishing troop movements.Malmesbury said:
Once again, this stuff was talked about for years - online personal security. This is just one of the first wars where it has actually become an issue.Sandpit said:
He was apparently working in ‘recuitment’ for the Russian military. Something that’s increasingly becoming non-voluntary, for any young men without the resources to make themselves invisible.JosiasJessop said:BTW, you may remember the story the other day about a Russian submarine commander that got assassinated during his morning run.
Allegedly, he was posting his runs publicly on Strava.
ISTR our military has had issues with this; it must be a far more serious breach of personal security during wartime...
Imagine being a valuable military target, also hated among many in your own community, running the same route every day at the same time, then posting it online for the world to see. Whether it was Russian locals or Ukranian spooks who got him first, I’d record it as a suicide.
At a guess, this guy is going to become a slide in the PowerPoint presentation "Why online personal security is important" that many organisations give.
This has got to be the ultimate textbook example of how not to do it.0 -
...and our money is worth less. Of course if she'd've stayed in office it would be worthless, but that's by-the-byMexicanpete said:Don't panic Tory PBers, Liz Truss has launched the "Growth Commission" and we are, it would seem, £10,000 a year poorer than Americans.
(We were probably only £5000 worse off before Kwarteng's absurd budget.)1 -
If the DfE had a hit team..ydoethur said:
The truly astonishing thing about the Russian invasion is just how inept their security protocols have been.Malmesbury said:A
It is alleged that his posts were "liked" by an account under the same name as the head of Ukrainian Intelligence.JosiasJessop said:BTW, you may remember the story the other day about a Russian submarine commander that got assassinated during his morning run.
Allegedly, he was posting his runs publicly on Strava.
ISTR our military has had issues with this; it must be a far more serious breach of personal security during wartime...
Even I am more careful about my data than that and nobody has any reason to assassinate me.1 -
Off topic, but sort of relevant. I know a surveyor for a large house building company around here. There's a massive field in Loughborough that they've been marketing as their next big estate, doing consultations, promising new infrastructure for the area and getting the planning ducks in line. It was due to break ground in the next few weeks but they've had to push it back a few months as they're struggling to get enough building crews to make a decent start. Plus he said they're not exactly sure where things are heading market wise, and are just holding off to see what happens. I remember in 2008, they were building an estate behind our old place that literally shut down for 2008-2009 during the GFC with the houses half built. There were a couple of families that had bought early completed properties living in nice houses surround by a massive building site, with temporary tarmac roads. I guess the building companies might be a bit wary of starting anything substantial now that they can hold off for a few months, see where we end up.0
-
Did you know that the OFSTED has an armed internal "security" outfit?ydoethur said:
The truly astonishing thing about the Russian invasion is just how inept their security protocols have been.Malmesbury said:A
It is alleged that his posts were "liked" by an account under the same name as the head of Ukrainian Intelligence.JosiasJessop said:BTW, you may remember the story the other day about a Russian submarine commander that got assassinated during his morning run.
Allegedly, he was posting his runs publicly on Strava.
ISTR our military has had issues with this; it must be a far more serious breach of personal security during wartime...
Even I am more careful about my data than that and nobody has any reason to assassinate me.3 -
My last purchase was 11th of April.Scott_xP said:
Can we open a book on whether you can make it the whole month?TheScreamingEagles said:I’m currently on a moratorium on buying footwear.
So over 3 months.
0 -
Live coverage of the 12th July Orange Order parade through Belfast today on GB News hosted by Arlene Foster0
-
Thanks, Huyfd. I'll be sure to set the timer.HYUFD said:Live coverage of the 12th July Orange Order parade through Belfast today on GB News hosted by Arlene Foster
3 -
"We're very lucky they're so fucking stupid"ydoethur said:
Plus using unsecured phones on local networks. And publishing troop movements.Malmesbury said:
Once again, this stuff was talked about for years - online personal security. This is just one of the first wars where it has actually become an issue.Sandpit said:
He was apparently working in ‘recuitment’ for the Russian military. Something that’s increasingly becoming non-voluntary, for any young men without the resources to make themselves invisible.JosiasJessop said:BTW, you may remember the story the other day about a Russian submarine commander that got assassinated during his morning run.
Allegedly, he was posting his runs publicly on Strava.
ISTR our military has had issues with this; it must be a far more serious breach of personal security during wartime...
Imagine being a valuable military target, also hated among many in your own community, running the same route every day at the same time, then posting it online for the world to see. Whether it was Russian locals or Ukranian spooks who got him first, I’d record it as a suicide.
At a guess, this guy is going to become a slide in the PowerPoint presentation "Why online personal security is important" that many organisations give.
This has got to be the ultimate textbook example of how not to do it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-QuGNa3osg4
- the slogan for the whole war.2 -
You're not going to keep us updated like you did Chaz lording it up in Scotland, are you?HYUFD said:Live coverage of the 12th July Orange Order parade through Belfast today on GB News hosted by Arlene Foster
0 -
How much do the meds cost to deal with the withdrawal issue?TheScreamingEagles said:
My last purchase was 11th of April.Scott_xP said:
Can we open a book on whether you can make it the whole month?TheScreamingEagles said:I’m currently on a moratorium on buying footwear.
So over 3 months.0 -
I used to do one of them for teenagers and their parents, about the dangers of over-sharing.Malmesbury said:
Once again, this stuff was talked about for years - online personal security. This is just one of the first wars where it has actually become an issue.Sandpit said:
He was apparently working in ‘recuitment’ for the Russian military. Something that’s increasingly becoming non-voluntary, for any young men without the resources to make themselves invisible.JosiasJessop said:BTW, you may remember the story the other day about a Russian submarine commander that got assassinated during his morning run.
Allegedly, he was posting his runs publicly on Strava.
ISTR our military has had issues with this; it must be a far more serious breach of personal security during wartime...
Imagine being a valuable military target, also hated among many in your own community, running the same route every day at the same time, then posting it online for the world to see. Whether it was Russian locals or Ukranian spooks who got him first, I’d record it as a suicide.
At a guess, this guy is going to become a slide in the PowerPoint presentation "Why online personal security is important" that many organisations give.
While most of it was about kids sending bad pictures to each other, and posting their full name and address on public forums, I couldn’t help but to point out the correlation between people posting photos of their whole family on holiday, while they were on holiday, and targeted house burglaries discovered when they got home.
There was a spate of such around international football matches, when the criminals knew exactly where the occupier was going to be, because they were live on the telly. They know where you are too, if you’re posting hourly updates from Majorca.
I still think back to the days of cellphone triangulation and CCTV cameras, and I’m only 45. Today’s always-online kids have no idea about the tracking devices they keep in their pockets. Or they don’t care. These are tomorrow’s military officers, who are going to have get it drummed out of them at Sandhurst.1
