Two Lab voters for every Tory, and enough left over to cover MOE.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
Good morning
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
On your first point, definitely agree. The Conservatives are definitely at the Ou est la masse de manoeuvre? / Aucune stage. There is nobody else credible to fill Sunak's shoes if he and Hunt go. (Go on, who takes over if Sunak is run over by a bus this morning? Not easy, is it?)
On the second, the government risk overusing a dangerous tool in the fight against inflation, and it's got a good chance of backfiring. Not so much because of the strikes (though encouraging public sector strikes in an election year is brave, in the Air Humphrey sense). But because everyone knows that schools hospitals councils etc simply can't get staff at the current pay rates. Some of the work I do is in teacher training, and we just aren't getting the applicants this year.
If the government are concerned about the public sector pay bill, there are three broad ways out. One is to increase government income, which means growing the economy or raising taxes. Another is to accept that the state can't buy as much public service as it used to. Stop teaching Year 9 or something. The third is to try to get the suppliers (basically the staff) to cut their prices by a real terms pay cut. The third of those is perfectly valid, and has been happening fairly consistently for over a decade. But it's now got to the point where people aren't just saying it's harmful, it's really harmful.
Far from being the right thing to do, it's chucking another unexploded bomb into Starmer's intray.
I accept your comments, but none of your valid suggestions are practical, not least growing the economy when we are heading into a recession and tax rises are off the table apparently, including Starmer as per his comments yesterday
The hard truth is many are going to struggle before things improve
Essentially, the situation is this:
*The politicians won't dare put up taxes to any meaningful extent *The politicians won't dare scrap gold plated universal pensioner benefits *The politicians won't dare let property prices crater *The politicians (and the utterly useless Bank of England along with them) are desperate to suppress the wages of the proles, but supremely relaxed about salary hyperinflation amongst very well-remunerated people of their own social class
And these self-imposed restrictions apply equally to Government and Opposition.
Basically, they're all equally committed to the maintenance of the current socio-economic system. Which means that the redistribution of our stagnant pool of wealth from poor people to rich people will continue unchecked, and the state, public services and living standards for the bulk of the population (especially those aged under about 50) will keep declining, with no prospect of any change at all.
Again, once economic growth ends, prosperity becomes a zero-sum game. The only way for one group in society to continue to experience the gains in living standards that it has come to expect is through seizing the wealth of others and impoverishing them. Thus rentiers and pensioners suck the blood of young families and low paid workers.
Let me guess, you rent and are youngish, only excuse for that lot of utter bollocks. Suck it up loser you will be old and on state pension one day, will see how rich you are then , greedy grasping bloodsuckers liek you would want your parents put down so you could get their hard earned cash.
I guess one of the problems with committing your whole army to Ukraine is that no-one is left to defend the road to Moscow if a random mercenary army decides to turn against you.
He has troops and his Praetorian guard. The question is whether they are willing to fight for him.
Talking of Boris, I think he's finally cracked. His Mail column today is a paean to the Titanic explorers who died, who were "pushing out the frontiers of human knowledge" - their exploration made him proud to be British and, of course he has a dig at "sneering lefties".
But most remarkably, he claims the explorers were trying to "democratise the ocean floor". WTF?
Well, punters paying $250,000 a pop to get what they want certainly sounds like BoJo's idea of democracy
Two Lab voters for every Tory, and enough left over to cover MOE.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
Good morning
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
On your first point, definitely agree. The Conservatives are definitely at the Ou est la masse de manoeuvre? / Aucune stage. There is nobody else credible to fill Sunak's shoes if he and Hunt go. (Go on, who takes over if Sunak is run over by a bus this morning? Not easy, is it?)
On the second, the government risk overusing a dangerous tool in the fight against inflation, and it's got a good chance of backfiring. Not so much because of the strikes (though encouraging public sector strikes in an election year is brave, in the Air Humphrey sense). But because everyone knows that schools hospitals councils etc simply can't get staff at the current pay rates. Some of the work I do is in teacher training, and we just aren't getting the applicants this year.
If the government are concerned about the public sector pay bill, there are three broad ways out. One is to increase government income, which means growing the economy or raising taxes. Another is to accept that the state can't buy as much public service as it used to. Stop teaching Year 9 or something. The third is to try to get the suppliers (basically the staff) to cut their prices by a real terms pay cut. The third of those is perfectly valid, and has been happening fairly consistently for over a decade. But it's now got to the point where people aren't just saying it's harmful, it's really harmful.
Far from being the right thing to do, it's chucking another unexploded bomb into Starmer's intray.
I accept your comments, but none of your valid suggestions are practical, not least growing the economy when we are heading into a recession and tax rises are off the table apparently, including Starmer as per his comments yesterday
The hard truth is many are going to struggle before things improve
Essentially, the situation is this:
*The politicians won't dare put up taxes to any meaningful extent *The politicians won't dare scrap gold plated universal pensioner benefits *The politicians won't dare let property prices crater *The politicians (and the utterly useless Bank of England along with them) are desperate to suppress the wages of the proles, but supremely relaxed about salary hyperinflation amongst very well-remunerated people of their own social class
And these self-imposed restrictions apply equally to Government and Opposition.
Basically, they're all equally committed to the maintenance of the current socio-economic system. Which means that the redistribution of our stagnant pool of wealth from poor people to rich people will continue unchecked, and the state, public services and living standards for the bulk of the population (especially those aged under about 50) will keep declining, with no prospect of any change at all.
Again, once economic growth ends, prosperity becomes a zero-sum game. The only way for one group in society to continue to experience the gains in living standards that it has come to expect is through seizing the wealth of others and impoverishing them. Thus rentiers and pensioners suck the blood of young families and low paid workers.
Let me guess, you rent and are youngish, only excuse for that lot of utter bollocks. Suck it up loser you will be old and on state pension one day, will see how rich you are then , greedy grasping bloodsuckers liek you would want your parents put down so you could get their hard earned cash.
Morning Malc
Getting seriously worried now about this shortage of turnips.
It is all this sunshine, we are not used to it , was happy to get some rain last night.
Apologies for my rudeness Ydoethur, Good Morning. Just got Wordle in 3 so good start , just have to hope my current bad run at horses comes to an end today.
Rudeness? Blimey Malc, if you think *that's* rude I'm really worried now. Not even a single word of invective!
Two Lab voters for every Tory, and enough left over to cover MOE.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
Good morning
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
On your first point, definitely agree. The Conservatives are definitely at the Ou est la masse de manoeuvre? / Aucune stage. There is nobody else credible to fill Sunak's shoes if he and Hunt go. (Go on, who takes over if Sunak is run over by a bus this morning? Not easy, is it?)
On the second, the government risk overusing a dangerous tool in the fight against inflation, and it's got a good chance of backfiring. Not so much because of the strikes (though encouraging public sector strikes in an election year is brave, in the Air Humphrey sense). But because everyone knows that schools hospitals councils etc simply can't get staff at the current pay rates. Some of the work I do is in teacher training, and we just aren't getting the applicants this year.
If the government are concerned about the public sector pay bill, there are three broad ways out. One is to increase government income, which means growing the economy or raising taxes. Another is to accept that the state can't buy as much public service as it used to. Stop teaching Year 9 or something. The third is to try to get the suppliers (basically the staff) to cut their prices by a real terms pay cut. The third of those is perfectly valid, and has been happening fairly consistently for over a decade. But it's now got to the point where people aren't just saying it's harmful, it's really harmful.
Far from being the right thing to do, it's chucking another unexploded bomb into Starmer's intray.
I accept your comments, but none of your valid suggestions are practical, not least growing the economy when we are heading into a recession and tax rises are off the table apparently, including Starmer as per his comments yesterday
The hard truth is many are going to struggle before things improve
Essentially, the situation is this:
*The politicians won't dare put up taxes to any meaningful extent *The politicians won't dare scrap gold plated universal pensioner benefits *The politicians won't dare let property prices crater *The politicians (and the utterly useless Bank of England along with them) are desperate to suppress the wages of the proles, but supremely relaxed about salary hyperinflation amongst very well-remunerated people of their own social class
And these self-imposed restrictions apply equally to Government and Opposition.
Basically, they're all equally committed to the maintenance of the current socio-economic system. Which means that the redistribution of our stagnant pool of wealth from poor people to rich people will continue unchecked, and the state, public services and living standards for the bulk of the population (especially those aged under about 50) will keep declining, with no prospect of any change at all.
Again, once economic growth ends, prosperity becomes a zero-sum game. The only way for one group in society to continue to experience the gains in living standards that it has come to expect is through seizing the wealth of others and impoverishing them. Thus rentiers and pensioners suck the blood of young families and low paid workers.
Let me guess, you rent and are youngish, only excuse for that lot of utter bollocks. Suck it up loser you will be old and on state pension one day, will see how rich you are then , greedy grasping bloodsuckers liek you would want your parents put down so you could get their hard earned cash.
Morning Malc
Getting seriously worried now about this shortage of turnips.
It is all this sunshine, we are not used to it , was happy to get some rain last night.
Apologies for my rudeness Ydoethur, Good Morning. Just got Wordle in 3 so good start , just have to hope my current bad run at horses comes to an end today.
Two Lab voters for every Tory, and enough left over to cover MOE.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
Good morning
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
Yet the Triple Lock for pensioners goes ahead.
Tories deserve wipeout, and may well get it..
Is it time for a 0% freeze on all pensions, welfare, minimum wage, public sector pay for 2024 as a last ditch effort to control inflation? And cancel HS2 which is such a waste of money?
Back in 2016 when the National Guard was established, composed of Interior Ministry troops but now under the direct control of the Kremlin, that was seen as an ominous sign by Russia watchers. But in a crackdown on dissent sense, not in a fend off an actual coup attempt sense. Perhaps Putin's grip on power was weaker than people realised at the time.
Putin's problem now is that he is reliant on groups with unknown loyalties. I doubt that he has any better idea what will happen than we do.
Two Lab voters for every Tory, and enough left over to cover MOE.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
Good morning
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
Yet the Triple Lock for pensioners goes ahead.
Tories deserve wipeout, and may well get it..
Is it time for a 0% freeze on all pensions, welfare, minimum wage, public sector pay for 2024 as a last ditch effort to control inflation? And cancel HS2 which is such a waste of money?
Tories lose the pensioner and slavering potential house inheritor vote? Do what is good for the country as opposed to good for the party? That would be remarkable.
As Boris Johnson proudly scans his Daily Mail column celebrating the daring-do bravery of the Titan submariners in the face of socialism, he might look up at the screen on the wall and observe Putin meeting his Waterloo on Sunak's watch.
A penny for his thoughts? "My, my, if only I hadn't had one too many Abba karaoke parties, Churchillian victory would be mine".
I can't believe the government would be so stupid as to freeze public sector pay (well maybe I could) next year. Their employees would not stand for it, and nor should they stand for it.
Two Lab voters for every Tory, and enough left over to cover MOE.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
Good morning
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
Yet the Triple Lock for pensioners goes ahead.
Tories deserve wipeout, and may well get it..
Is it time for a 0% freeze on all pensions, welfare, minimum wage, public sector pay for 2024 as a last ditch effort to control inflation? And cancel HS2 which is such a waste of money?
And HS2 isn't in itself unreasonable at all, because of the capacity expansion. Though arguably the way it is being chopped up is a hugely inefficient way to spend money (no link to HS1 early on, now ending at Old Oak, etc.)
Two Lab voters for every Tory, and enough left over to cover MOE.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
Good morning
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
Yet the Triple Lock for pensioners goes ahead.
Tories deserve wipeout, and may well get it..
Is it time for a 0% freeze on all pensions, welfare, minimum wage, public sector pay for 2024 as a last ditch effort to control inflation? And cancel HS2 which is such a waste of money?
At risk of being pedantic, if you have a 0% freeze that means something isn't frozen.
The important factor for the real war is that Rostov is the main supply base for the whole of the Russian army in Ukraine. Not only are those supplies falling into the hands of Wagner but they will no longer being supplied to the Russian army. Given the intensity of current fighting that is going to be a major problem very soon. How long before the Russian artillery falls silent? Before the tanks and mobile artillery run out of fuel?
The opportunities for a break through here at substantially less cost than feared are significant.
Two Lab voters for every Tory, and enough left over to cover MOE.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
Good morning
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
Yet the Triple Lock for pensioners goes ahead.
Tories deserve wipeout, and may well get it..
Is it time for a 0% freeze on all pensions, welfare, minimum wage, public sector pay for 2024 as a last ditch effort to control inflation? And cancel HS2 which is such a waste of money?
And HS2 isn't in itself unreasonable at all, because of the capacity expansion. Though arguably the way it is being chopped up is a hugely inefficient way to spend money (no link to HS1 early on, now ending at Old Oak, etc.)
I suspect the reason it is being chopped up is to try and cancel it by stealth. Not because it is unnecessary - it's urgently needed for capacity, as you say - but because the DfT don't like railways and the Treasury don't like spending money on useful things rather than bribes to their client groups.
Two Lab voters for every Tory, and enough left over to cover MOE.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
Good morning
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
Yet the Triple Lock for pensioners goes ahead.
Tories deserve wipeout, and may well get it..
Is it time for a 0% freeze on all pensions, welfare, minimum wage, public sector pay for 2024 as a last ditch effort to control inflation? And cancel HS2 which is such a waste of money?
The most effective means of countering inflation is probably to impose significant tax increases on the wealthy. The fact that the Conservatives won't do this is unsurprising, and the fact that Labour isn't pushing for this tells you that they are also, in fact, conservatives.
Two Lab voters for every Tory, and enough left over to cover MOE.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
Good morning
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
Yet the Triple Lock for pensioners goes ahead.
Tories deserve wipeout, and may well get it..
Is it time for a 0% freeze on all pensions, welfare, minimum wage, public sector pay for 2024 as a last ditch effort to control inflation? And cancel HS2 which is such a waste of money?
And HS2 isn't in itself unreasonable at all, because of the capacity expansion. Though arguably the way it is being chopped up is a hugely inefficient way to spend money (no link to HS1 early on, now ending at Old Oak, etc.)
I suspect the reason it is being chopped up is to try and cancel it by stealth. Not because it is unnecessary - it's urgently needed for capacity, as you say - but because the DfT don't like railways and the Treasury don't like spending money.
The DfT don’t like roads either. Or runways. The Treasury has always hated spending money.
Two Lab voters for every Tory, and enough left over to cover MOE.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
Good morning
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
Yet the Triple Lock for pensioners goes ahead.
Tories deserve wipeout, and may well get it..
Is it time for a 0% freeze on all pensions, welfare, minimum wage, public sector pay for 2024 as a last ditch effort to control inflation? And cancel HS2 which is such a waste of money?
At risk of being pedantic, if you have a 0% freeze that means something isn't frozen.
I had thought that but couldn't be bothered to change the post!
Two Lab voters for every Tory, and enough left over to cover MOE.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
Good morning
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
On your first point, definitely agree. The Conservatives are definitely at the Ou est la masse de manoeuvre? / Aucune stage. There is nobody else credible to fill Sunak's shoes if he and Hunt go. (Go on, who takes over if Sunak is run over by a bus this morning? Not easy, is it?)
On the second, the government risk overusing a dangerous tool in the fight against inflation, and it's got a good chance of backfiring. Not so much because of the strikes (though encouraging public sector strikes in an election year is brave, in the Air Humphrey sense). But because everyone knows that schools hospitals councils etc simply can't get staff at the current pay rates. Some of the work I do is in teacher training, and we just aren't getting the applicants this year.
If the government are concerned about the public sector pay bill, there are three broad ways out. One is to increase government income, which means growing the economy or raising taxes. Another is to accept that the state can't buy as much public service as it used to. Stop teaching Year 9 or something. The third is to try to get the suppliers (basically the staff) to cut their prices by a real terms pay cut. The third of those is perfectly valid, and has been happening fairly consistently for over a decade. But it's now got to the point where people aren't just saying it's harmful, it's really harmful.
Far from being the right thing to do, it's chucking another unexploded bomb into Starmer's intray.
I accept your comments, but none of your valid suggestions are practical, not least growing the economy when we are heading into a recession and tax rises are off the table apparently, including Starmer as per his comments yesterday
The hard truth is many are going to struggle before things improve
Essentially, the situation is this:
*The politicians won't dare put up taxes to any meaningful extent *The politicians won't dare scrap gold plated universal pensioner benefits *The politicians won't dare let property prices crater *The politicians (and the utterly useless Bank of England along with them) are desperate to suppress the wages of the proles, but supremely relaxed about salary hyperinflation amongst very well-remunerated people of their own social class
And these self-imposed restrictions apply equally to Government and Opposition.
Basically, they're all equally committed to the maintenance of the current socio-economic system. Which means that the redistribution of our stagnant pool of wealth from poor people to rich people will continue unchecked, and the state, public services and living standards for the bulk of the population (especially those aged under about 50) will keep declining, with no prospect of any change at all.
Again, once economic growth ends, prosperity becomes a zero-sum game. The only way for one group in society to continue to experience the gains in living standards that it has come to expect is through seizing the wealth of others and impoverishing them. Thus rentiers and pensioners suck the blood of young families and low paid workers.
Let me guess, you rent and are youngish, only excuse for that lot of utter bollocks. Suck it up loser you will be old and on state pension one day, will see how rich you are then , greedy grasping bloodsuckers liek you would want your parents put down so you could get their hard earned cash.
Morning Malc
Getting seriously worried now about this shortage of turnips.
It is all this sunshine, we are not used to it , was happy to get some rain last night.
Apologies for my rudeness Ydoethur, Good Morning. Just got Wordle in 3 so good start , just have to hope my current bad run at horses comes to an end today.
@BartholomewRoberts Just a tabloid investigation but it seems like there are a million plots of unbuilt planning permissions being horded by developers. Perhaps the failure to deliver housing is not entirely the fault of the planning system and land regulation and something more to do with the economics of housebuilding?
Except that time and again my point has been that developments should be able to be done a few houses at a time by independent developers, rather than the oligopoly of large developers. That the planning system works in the favour of the oligopoly who can work the system and manage landbanks but stands in the way of small developers.
So saying that the oligopoly of large developers have land banks - do you think that (a) contradicts my point or (b) reinforces my point?
The simple fact is that it is the planning system that makes land banking worthwhile, profitable and necessary for the large firms and stands in the way of the small firms. If we had a sensible zonal planning system where planning consent was abolished, like in Japan, then land banking wouldn't make sense. You don't see landbanking in Japan.
Two Lab voters for every Tory, and enough left over to cover MOE.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
Good morning
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
Yet the Triple Lock for pensioners goes ahead.
Tories deserve wipeout, and may well get it..
Is it time for a 0% freeze on all pensions, welfare, minimum wage, public sector pay for 2024 as a last ditch effort to control inflation? And cancel HS2 which is such a waste of money?
And HS2 isn't in itself unreasonable at all, because of the capacity expansion. Though arguably the way it is being chopped up is a hugely inefficient way to spend money (no link to HS1 early on, now ending at Old Oak, etc.)
I suspect the reason it is being chopped up is to try and cancel it by stealth. Not because it is unnecessary - it's urgently needed for capacity, as you say - but because the DfT don't like railways and the Treasury don't like spending money.
The DfT don’t like roads either. Or runways. The Treasury has always hated spending money.
It's OK that they're wary of spending money. That is their job.
What bothers me is how blatant they are about spending money on the wrong things and justifying it through bizarre and frequently forged 'business cases.'
The important factor for the real war is that Rostov is the main supply base for the whole of the Russian army in Ukraine. Not only are those supplies falling into the hands of Wagner but they will no longer being supplied to the Russian army. Given the intensity of current fighting that is going to be a major problem very soon. How long before the Russian artillery falls silent? Before the tanks and mobile artillery run out of fuel?
The opportunities for a break through here at substantially less cost than feared are significant.
The destruction of the Russian ammunition supply hub about a week ago was already likely to see that happen. Not only did it destroy the rail-fed warehouses, but also the entire bureaucracy for who needed what, where.
Two Lab voters for every Tory, and enough left over to cover MOE.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
Good morning
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
Yet the Triple Lock for pensioners goes ahead.
Tories deserve wipeout, and may well get it..
Is it time for a 0% freeze on all pensions, welfare, minimum wage, public sector pay for 2024 as a last ditch effort to control inflation? And cancel HS2 which is such a waste of money?
And HS2 isn't in itself unreasonable at all, because of the capacity expansion. Though arguably the way it is being chopped up is a hugely inefficient way to spend money (no link to HS1 early on, now ending at Old Oak, etc.)
I suspect the reason it is being chopped up is to try and cancel it by stealth. Not because it is unnecessary - it's urgently needed for capacity, as you say - but because the DfT don't like railways and the Treasury don't like spending money.
You may very well be right. (Though a cynic might also suggest that the big sums have been spent, so why bother with running the actual trains? Bo-ring, and no juicy directorships or profits).
The DfT, with its approach to electrification, not least the increasingly common insistence that trains carry [edit] what are effectively diesel and electric locomotives around at the same time, not to mention batteries also it seems, does recall to mind the relationship between the Dept of Education and education as you portray it.
Numbers don’t count if everyone is either too scared, or too confused to fight you.
These things have a way of snowballing, as when Napoleon escaped from Elba.
It took just three days for Nicholas II to lose control. It took about 24 hours for Ceaucescu.
Yes, but don't forget all those countless but less memorable times when things didn't snowball and the regime reasserted itself brutally. Most coup attempts are defeated.
Two Lab voters for every Tory, and enough left over to cover MOE.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
Good morning
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
Yet the Triple Lock for pensioners goes ahead.
Tories deserve wipeout, and may well get it..
Is it time for a 0% freeze on all pensions, welfare, minimum wage, public sector pay for 2024 as a last ditch effort to control inflation? And cancel HS2 which is such a waste of money?
At risk of being pedantic, if you have a 0% freeze that means something isn't frozen.
I had thought that but couldn't be bothered to change the post!
And we all know what Russian doctrine is for when there's a significant challenge to the state. So a nuclear civil war, shades of the neo-Nazi Turner Diaries? The answer to that is almost certainly "No".
Could someone please explain to me what Prigozhin meant when he said he'd deal with any aviation sent against him? Has he got the weaponry to do that?
As @NickPalmer rightly points out, a key part of the background here is Putin's attempt to regularise contracts. How is morale among Wagner troops? Pretty clear that they detest Putin. The question is what they think of Prigozhin. Are their families getting paid well when they fall in combat? Is their own pay regular? What would be the implications for THEM if contracts were regularised, and how did they and do they perceive those implications? Wondering where this goes if Putin, or perhaps better for image reasons some silovik in uniform, says ребята you've done a brilliant job, Russia thanks you, and here is a cast-iron promise that if you see sense and stop obeying that traitor chienlit Prigozhin, who has long been in contact with foreign interests, who has bank accounts all over the place, etc. etc., then nothing bad will happen to you - and you have 24 hours to decide.
I can't believe the government would be so stupid as to freeze public sector pay (well maybe I could) next year. Their employees would not stand for it, and nor should they stand for it.
I think that the current public sector strikes are an enormous drag on the government's popularity. A government that had not already pretty much given up would have tried much harder to resolve these. If some Tory strategists think junior doctors going on strike for 5 days is somehow going to cause a backlash against Labour they are more deluded than Putin.
Numbers don’t count if everyone is either too scared, or too confused to fight you.
These things have a way of snowballing, as when Napoleon escaped from Elba.
It took just three days for Nicholas II to lose control. It took about 24 hours for Ceaucescu.
Yes, but don't forget all those countless but less memorable times when things didn't snowball and the regime reasserted itself brutally. Most coup attempts are defeated.
Yes, but if a government's army isn't willing to fight, that can become terminal very quickly.
Numbers don’t count if everyone is either too scared, or too confused to fight you.
These things have a way of snowballing, as when Napoleon escaped from Elba.
It took just three days for Nicholas II to lose control. It took about 24 hours for Ceaucescu.
Yes, but don't forget all those countless but less memorable times when things didn't snowball and the regime reasserted itself brutally. Most coup attempts are defeated.
Yes, but if a government's army isn't willing to fight, that can become terminal very quickly.
Mubarak looked secure, until the moment the Army Council told him he wasn't.
@BartholomewRoberts Just a tabloid investigation but it seems like there are a million plots of unbuilt planning permissions being horded by developers. Perhaps the failure to deliver housing is not entirely the fault of the planning system and land regulation and something more to do with the economics of housebuilding?
Except that time and again my point has been that developments should be able to be done a few houses at a time by independent developers, rather than the oligopoly of large developers. That the planning system works in the favour of the oligopoly who can work the system and manage landbanks but stands in the way of small developers.
So saying that the oligopoly of large developers have land banks - do you think that (a) contradicts my point or (b) reinforces my point?
The simple fact is that it is the planning system that makes land banking worthwhile, profitable and necessary for the large firms and stands in the way of the small firms. If we had a sensible zonal planning system where planning consent was abolished, like in Japan, then land banking wouldn't make sense. You don't see landbanking in Japan.
The other thing we have in Japan is a tax to pay every year of a couple of percent of the value of the land. You really don't want to have valuable land sitting idle in Japan. Even if a space is empty for a few months waiting for construction the owner will stick a car park on it to pay the taxes.
Wasn't it said that 99% of the Russian military was committed to Ukraine?
I was never sure whether we should believe that figure or not, but if its true, then who's standing in Moscow to defend it from Wagner?
I wonder if the Russian military assumed that Ukraine would never dare to invade Russia properly, because of the threat of nukes would mean the West wouldn't let them, so they've left themselves completely exposed to their own forces?
Numbers don’t count if everyone is either too scared, or too confused to fight you.
These things have a way of snowballing, as when Napoleon escaped from Elba.
It took just three days for Nicholas II to lose control. It took about 24 hours for Ceaucescu.
Yes, but don't forget all those countless but less memorable times when things didn't snowball and the regime reasserted itself brutally. Most coup attempts are defeated.
It will turn on what pieces have already been played.
@BartholomewRoberts Just a tabloid investigation but it seems like there are a million plots of unbuilt planning permissions being horded by developers. Perhaps the failure to deliver housing is not entirely the fault of the planning system and land regulation and something more to do with the economics of housebuilding?
Except that time and again my point has been that developments should be able to be done a few houses at a time by independent developers, rather than the oligopoly of large developers. That the planning system works in the favour of the oligopoly who can work the system and manage landbanks but stands in the way of small developers.
So saying that the oligopoly of large developers have land banks - do you think that (a) contradicts my point or (b) reinforces my point?
The simple fact is that it is the planning system that makes land banking worthwhile, profitable and necessary for the large firms and stands in the way of the small firms. If we had a sensible zonal planning system where planning consent was abolished, like in Japan, then land banking wouldn't make sense. You don't see landbanking in Japan.
The other thing we have in Japan is a tax to pay every year of a couple of percent of the value of the land. You really don't want to have valuable land sitting idle in Japan. Even if a space is empty for a few months waiting for construction the owner will stick a car park on it to pay the taxes.
Absolutely! A sensible policy.
Abolish Stamp Duty and Council Tax and replace with a Land Tax. Have proper zoning to divide land into eg Residential, Industrial, Commercial, Parks, Nature etc
Then let people decide what to do with their own bloody land. Problem resolved.
And we all know what Russian doctrine is for when there's a significant challenge to the state. So a nuclear civil war, shades of the neo-Nazi Turner Diaries? The answer to that is almost certainly "No".
Could someone please explain to me what Prigozhin meant when he said he'd deal with any aviation sent against him? Has he got the weaponry to do that?
He has some ground to air stuff, but I seriously doubt he could protect a column on the move against a determined effort. But so far the response has been disorganised, minor, or non existent. That could still change - as hinted at here: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672517434316582912
Numbers don’t count if everyone is either too scared, or too confused to fight you.
These things have a way of snowballing, as when Napoleon escaped from Elba.
It took just three days for Nicholas II to lose control. It took about 24 hours for Ceaucescu.
Yes, but don't forget all those countless but less memorable times when things didn't snowball and the regime reasserted itself brutally. Most coup attempts are defeated.
Yes, but if a government's army isn't willing to fight, that can become terminal very quickly.
We don't know that is the case yet. People can be shocked into temporary acquiescence and then after a few hours say "no actually just wait a minute we're not having this". That is you need to be willing AND ready. And anything to the north of where Wagner are now will most certainly be ready. What's apparently happened the last 12 hours is significant, but not necessarily how it will go the next 12 hours.
I can't believe the government would be so stupid as to freeze public sector pay (well maybe I could) next year. Their employees would not stand for it, and nor should they stand for it.
I think that the current public sector strikes are an enormous drag on the government's popularity. A government that had not already pretty much given up would have tried much harder to resolve these. If some Tory strategists think junior doctors going on strike for 5 days is somehow going to cause a backlash against Labour they are more deluded than Putin.
A desire for all-out confrontation with public sector workers (which a pay freeze would entail) is lunacy.
Central bankers endlessly rage against pay rises, but capitalism depends upon them.
I can't believe the government would be so stupid as to freeze public sector pay (well maybe I could) next year. Their employees would not stand for it, and nor should they stand for it.
Indeed, instead of a wage freeze the government needs to look at mass layoffs in order to increase pay. The public sector is unproductive and a major reason for it is that it is completely bloated. Sacking 20% of public sector employees would free up labour supply in the private sector, enable pay rises for the remaining 80% and allow for a big reduction in spending. I doubt anyone would notice either if the cuts were made among the army of do nothing paper shufflers.
I am appealing to the citizens of Russia, to the personnel of the armed forces, law enforcement agencies and special services, to the fighters and commanders who are now fighting on their battle positions, repelling enemy attacks, doing this heroically - I know, I spoke again last night with the commanders of all directions.
I appeal to those who were deceived or threatened into a criminal venture, pushed onto the path of a serious crime - armed mutiny.
Today Russia is waging a hard fight for its future, repelling the aggression of neo-Nazis and their masters. Virtually the entire military, economic and information machine of the West is directed against us. We are fighting for the life and safety of our people, for our sovereignty and independence. For the right to be and remain Russia - a state with a thousand-year history.
This battle, when the fate of our people is being decided, requires the unification of all forces, unity, consolidation and responsibility. When everything that weakens us must be thrown aside, any strife that our external enemies can and use to undermine us from within.
And therefore, actions that split our unity - are, in essence, defection from your people, from your comrades who are now fighting at the front. It's a stab in the back of our country and our people.
This is exactly the kind of blow that was dealt to Russia in 1917, when the country was fighting the First World War. But her victory was stolen. Intrigues, quarrels, politicking behind the back of the army and the people turned into the greatest upheaval, the destruction of the army and the collapse of the state, the loss of vast territories. In the end was the tragedy of the civil war.
Russians killed Russians, brothers - brothers, and the greedy profit was extracted by various political adventurers and foreign forces, which divided the country, tore it to pieces.
We will not let this happen again. We will protect both our people and our statehood from any threats. Including - from internal betrayal.
What we are facing is precisely betrayal. Exorbitant ambitions and personal interests have led to treason. To treason against their country, their people, and the cause for which, side by side with our other units and subdivisions, the fighters and commanders of the Wagner Group fought and died.
Heroes who liberated Soledar and Artemovsk, cities and settlements of Donbass, fought and gave their lives for Novorossiya, for the unity of the Russian world. Their name and glory were also betrayed by those who are trying to organize a rebellion, pushing the country towards anarchy and fratricide. Towards defeat, ultimately, and capitulation.
I repeat, any internal turmoil is a deadly threat to our statehood, to us as a nation. This is a blow to Russia, to our people. And our actions to protect the Motherland from such a threat will be harsh. Everyone who deliberately embarked on the path of betrayal, who prepared an armed rebellion, embarked on a path of blackmail and terrorist methods, will suffer the inevitable punishment, they will answer both before the law and before our people.
The Armed Forces and other state bodies have received the necessary orders, additional anti-terrorist measures are now being introduced in Moscow, the Moscow region, and a number of other regions. Decisive actions will also be taken to stabilize the situation in Rostov-on-Don. It remains complicated, the work of civil and military administration is practically blocked.
As the President of Russia and the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, as a citizen of Russia, I will do everything to defend the country, protect the constitutional order, the lives, safety and freedom of citizens.
Those who organized and prepared the military rebellion, who took up arms against their comrades - betrayed Russia. And they will answer for it. And those who are being drawn into this crime, I urge not to make a fatal and tragic, irrevocable mistake, to make the only correct choice - to stop participating in criminal actions.
I believe that we will preserve and defend what is dear and sacred to us, and together with our Motherland we will overcome any trials, become even stronger."
Numbers don’t count if everyone is either too scared, or too confused to fight you.
These things have a way of snowballing, as when Napoleon escaped from Elba.
It took just three days for Nicholas II to lose control. It took about 24 hours for Ceaucescu.
Yes, but don't forget all those countless but less memorable times when things didn't snowball and the regime reasserted itself brutally. Most coup attempts are defeated.
Yes, but if a government's army isn't willing to fight, that can become terminal very quickly.
We don't know that is the case yet. People can be shocked into temporary acquiescence and then after a few hours say "no actually just wait a minute we're not having this". That is you need to be willing AND ready. And anything to the north of where Wagner are now will most certainly be ready. What's apparently happened the last 12 hours is significant, but not necessarily how it will go the next 12 hours.
Absolutely, the next 12 hours is uncertain, but that's the point - it could go either way.
Most likely still is Prizoghin ends up in a bodybag. But its possible that Putin ends up in a bodybag. Or Putin might suddenly find an urgent reason to fly out of Moscow.
Or both scorpions could die and something else arises.
@BartholomewRoberts Just a tabloid investigation but it seems like there are a million plots of unbuilt planning permissions being horded by developers. Perhaps the failure to deliver housing is not entirely the fault of the planning system and land regulation and something more to do with the economics of housebuilding?
Except that time and again my point has been that developments should be able to be done a few houses at a time by independent developers, rather than the oligopoly of large developers. That the planning system works in the favour of the oligopoly who can work the system and manage landbanks but stands in the way of small developers.
So saying that the oligopoly of large developers have land banks - do you think that (a) contradicts my point or (b) reinforces my point?
The simple fact is that it is the planning system that makes land banking worthwhile, profitable and necessary for the large firms and stands in the way of the small firms. If we had a sensible zonal planning system where planning consent was abolished, like in Japan, then land banking wouldn't make sense. You don't see landbanking in Japan.
Pretty much agree, but in a free market you can't really ban big companies (how would it work? "Succeed beyond point X and we'll dissolve you"?). What you CAN do is limit planning permission to (say) two years, so you only apply for it when you're interested in getting on with it. Perhaps allow local authorities to levy 1% of the developed value of the site for every month after two years that it's not completed?
How does zonal planning as in Japan work exactly? "If I want to build a house in a housing zone then I can, without needing permission"? Presumably there are some constraints, or could I build the Empire State Building next to a cottage?
I can't believe the government would be so stupid as to freeze public sector pay (well maybe I could) next year. Their employees would not stand for it, and nor should they stand for it.
Indeed, instead of a wage freeze the government needs to look at mass layoffs in order to increase pay. The public sector is unproductive and a major reason for it is that it is completely bloated. Sacking 20% of public sector employees would free up labour supply in the private sector, enable pay rises for the remaining 80% and allow for a big reduction in spending. I doubt anyone would notice either if the cuts were made among the army of do nothing paper shufflers.
That's not true. If the 7,000 civil servants at the DfE were fired tomorrow things would dramatically improve in our education system.
@wartranslated ❗️AP Wagner: "The trigger of the Civil War was pulled by Pypa [Putin]. Instead of sending one or two degenerates into retirement, he gave the order to neutralize the most combat-ready unit in Russia. The life of one or two traitors was placed above 25,000 heroes. Who is evil in this conflict is already obvious. The victory will be for PMC "Wagner".
AP Wagner is one of numerous channels associated with senior figures in Wagner.
@BartholomewRoberts Just a tabloid investigation but it seems like there are a million plots of unbuilt planning permissions being horded by developers. Perhaps the failure to deliver housing is not entirely the fault of the planning system and land regulation and something more to do with the economics of housebuilding?
Except that time and again my point has been that developments should be able to be done a few houses at a time by independent developers, rather than the oligopoly of large developers. That the planning system works in the favour of the oligopoly who can work the system and manage landbanks but stands in the way of small developers.
So saying that the oligopoly of large developers have land banks - do you think that (a) contradicts my point or (b) reinforces my point?
The simple fact is that it is the planning system that makes land banking worthwhile, profitable and necessary for the large firms and stands in the way of the small firms. If we had a sensible zonal planning system where planning consent was abolished, like in Japan, then land banking wouldn't make sense. You don't see landbanking in Japan.
Pretty much agree, but in a free market you can't really ban big companies (how would it work? "Succeed beyond point X and we'll dissolve you"?). What you CAN do is limit planning permission to (say) two years, so you only apply for it when you're interested in getting on with it. Perhaps allow local authorities to levy 1% of the developed value of the site for every month after two years that it's not completed?
How does zonal planning as in Japan work exactly? "If I want to build a house in a housing zone then I can, without needing permission"? Presumably there are some constraints, or could I build the Empire State Building next to a cottage?
My understanding of the zonal system in Japan is that you can build what you want in a residentially zoned area, without permission, but it must be within regulations.
One of the regulations is on height, so no, you can't build the Empire State Building. You could choose to build a house, or apartments, or anything else within reason though, its your land, your choice. So you can get mixed and varied organic developments where different types of buildings are next to each other, rather than staid and uniform blocks of almost identikit buildings all from the same developer.
No need to ban big companies with a zonal system, because the market will do it for you. As Edmund explained, landbanking is deeply unprofitable in Japan, because you're paying the tax and so you want to get it built as soon as possible - and small firms can compete since they don't need to go through the consent process, just get land in the right zone and get on with the job.
Numbers don’t count if everyone is either too scared, or too confused to fight you.
These things have a way of snowballing, as when Napoleon escaped from Elba.
It took just three days for Nicholas II to lose control. It took about 24 hours for Ceaucescu.
Yes, but don't forget all those countless but less memorable times when things didn't snowball and the regime reasserted itself brutally. Most coup attempts are defeated.
And when an ex president whips up an armed mob into a frenzied attack on a seat of national government it isn’t a coup at all. Apparently.
Numbers don’t count if everyone is either too scared, or too confused to fight you.
These things have a way of snowballing, as when Napoleon escaped from Elba.
It took just three days for Nicholas II to lose control. It took about 24 hours for Ceaucescu.
Yes, but don't forget all those countless but less memorable times when things didn't snowball and the regime reasserted itself brutally. Most coup attempts are defeated.
No matter what happens, the damage that has already been inflicted is fatal pretty quickly for the regime. Either there is a lot of violence and the regime kills the Wagnerites, but is severely weakened, in which case Putin is out as the ZSU break out across the Russian lines: or the regime simply fold its tents, in which case Putin is out; or Wagner fades (not looking likely atm, but the disruption to the Russian armed forces leads to a break out for the ZSU and Putin is still out.
I can't believe the government would be so stupid as to freeze public sector pay (well maybe I could) next year. Their employees would not stand for it, and nor should they stand for it.
Indeed, instead of a wage freeze the government needs to look at mass layoffs in order to increase pay. The public sector is unproductive and a major reason for it is that it is completely bloated. Sacking 20% of public sector employees would free up labour supply in the private sector, enable pay rises for the remaining 80% and allow for a big reduction in spending. I doubt anyone would notice either if the cuts were made among the army of do nothing paper shufflers.
I like Mr Nicholson's suggestion she's adopted the dead cat strategy. Rather apt.
It was a purrfect pun.
On a serious note, nobody who is worried about safeguarding would call in OFSTED. They haven't a clue what it is. Spielman literally can't define it. If you're worried about safeguarding you call the local authority.
Numbers don’t count if everyone is either too scared, or too confused to fight you.
These things have a way of snowballing, as when Napoleon escaped from Elba.
It took just three days for Nicholas II to lose control. It took about 24 hours for Ceaucescu.
Yes, but don't forget all those countless but less memorable times when things didn't snowball and the regime reasserted itself brutally. Most coup attempts are defeated.
No matter what happens, the damage that has already been inflicted is fatal pretty quickly for the regime. Either there is a lot of violence and the regime kills the Wagnerites, but is severely weakened, in which case Putin is out as the ZSU break out across the Russian lines: or the regime simply fold its tents, in which case Putin is out; or Wagner fades (not looking likely atm, but the disruption to the Russian armed forces leads to a break out for the ZSU and Putin is still out.
Watch Belarus and the frozen conflicts now.
One frozen conflict which could suddenly unfreeze being South Ossetia of course.
Right now, the Russian army can't get to it in the event of trouble.
There’s nothing like spending a Saturday watching two sides go at it. Different approaches to attacking or playing the long game. The upstarts against the established power. Sometimes a loss can feel like a win for one side and a win just holds off what’s to come next.
Numbers don’t count if everyone is either too scared, or too confused to fight you.
These things have a way of snowballing, as when Napoleon escaped from Elba.
It took just three days for Nicholas II to lose control. It took about 24 hours for Ceaucescu.
Yes, but don't forget all those countless but less memorable times when things didn't snowball and the regime reasserted itself brutally. Most coup attempts are defeated.
And when an ex president whips up an armed mob into a frenzied attack on a seat of national government it isn’t a coup at all. Apparently.
Trump was still president at the time. It was still a coup attempt though.
Numbers don’t count if everyone is either too scared, or too confused to fight you.
These things have a way of snowballing, as when Napoleon escaped from Elba.
It took just three days for Nicholas II to lose control. It took about 24 hours for Ceaucescu.
Yes, but don't forget all those countless but less memorable times when things didn't snowball and the regime reasserted itself brutally. Most coup attempts are defeated.
No matter what happens, the damage that has already been inflicted is fatal pretty quickly for the regime. Either there is a lot of violence and the regime kills the Wagnerites, but is severely weakened, in which case Putin is out as the ZSU break out across the Russian lines: or the regime simply fold its tents, in which case Putin is out; or Wagner fades (not looking likely atm, but the disruption to the Russian armed forces leads to a break out for the ZSU and Putin is still out.
Watch Belarus and the frozen conflicts now.
One frozen conflict which could suddenly unfreeze being South Ossetia of course.
Right now, the Russian army can't get to it in the event of trouble.
Watching the Chinese set their eyes on Vladivostok would be, I have to say, rather amusing.
@wartranslated ❗️AP Wagner: "The trigger of the Civil War was pulled by Pypa [Putin]. Instead of sending one or two degenerates into retirement, he gave the order to neutralize the most combat-ready unit in Russia. The life of one or two traitors was placed above 25,000 heroes. Who is evil in this conflict is already obvious. The victory will be for PMC "Wagner".
AP Wagner is one of numerous channels associated with senior figures in Wagner.
He's no longer calling Shoygu merely a guy who wants to be a marshal, but he's calling him a traitor now? This is assuming it's Shoygu he's talking about. Which foreign interests is Shoygu supposed to be working for?
Watch out for accusations of Buddhism, shamanism, wicked Asian magic. (This isn't a joke BTW.)
I can't believe the government would be so stupid as to freeze public sector pay (well maybe I could) next year. Their employees would not stand for it, and nor should they stand for it.
Indeed, instead of a wage freeze the government needs to look at mass layoffs in order to increase pay. The public sector is unproductive and a major reason for it is that it is completely bloated. Sacking 20% of public sector employees would free up labour supply in the private sector, enable pay rises for the remaining 80% and allow for a big reduction in spending. I doubt anyone would notice either if the cuts were made among the army of do nothing paper shufflers.
Yeah, firing doctors, nurses, policemen, firefighters and teachers is the way to go!
Perhaps not.
I could save you half a million in one hit. Sack Andrew Bailey.
If that press briefing from the British MoD is right, they are just moving quietly to moscow.
I imagine Putin is extremely reluctant to get into open armed conflict with Wagner on Russian soil which couldn’t be described as anything but civil war. I bet he’s secretly negotiating his withered ass off with Prigozhin through ‘channels’, whether Big YVP is listening is another question.
Numbers don’t count if everyone is either too scared, or too confused to fight you.
These things have a way of snowballing, as when Napoleon escaped from Elba.
It took just three days for Nicholas II to lose control. It took about 24 hours for Ceaucescu.
Yes, but don't forget all those countless but less memorable times when things didn't snowball and the regime reasserted itself brutally. Most coup attempts are defeated.
Yes, but if a government's army isn't willing to fight, that can become terminal very quickly.
We don't know that is the case yet. ...
Obviously I said "if". But apparently it's the case so far, and perceptions are very important in a situation like this.
Two Lab voters for every Tory, and enough left over to cover MOE.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
Good morning
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
Yet the Triple Lock for pensioners goes ahead.
Tories deserve wipeout, and may well get it..
Is it time for a 0% freeze on all pensions, welfare, minimum wage, public sector pay for 2024 as a last ditch effort to control inflation? And cancel HS2 which is such a waste of money?
And HS2 isn't in itself unreasonable at all, because of the capacity expansion. Though arguably the way it is being chopped up is a hugely inefficient way to spend money (no link to HS1 early on, now ending at Old Oak, etc.)
I suspect the reason it is being chopped up is to try and cancel it by stealth. Not because it is unnecessary - it's urgently needed for capacity, as you say - but because the DfT don't like railways and the Treasury don't like spending money.
The DfT don’t like roads either. Or runways. The Treasury has always hated spending money.
It's OK that they're wary of spending money. That is their job.
What bothers me is how blatant they are about spending money on the wrong things and justifying it through bizarre and frequently forged 'business cases.'
They also don’t look at anything sensible. Someone recently run a survey on electrification in relation to freight trains and the amount of savings that resulted from 100 miles of in between route electrification is completely insane (it shunts something like 10million miles a year to fully electric)
If that press briefing from the British MoD is right, they are just moving quietly to moscow.
I imagine Putin is extremely reluctant to get into open armed conflict with Wagner on Russian soil which couldn’t be described as anything but civil war. I bet he’s secretly negotiating his withered ass off with Prigozhin through ‘channels’, whether Big P is listening is another question.
Numbers don’t count if everyone is either too scared, or too confused to fight you.
These things have a way of snowballing, as when Napoleon escaped from Elba.
It took just three days for Nicholas II to lose control. It took about 24 hours for Ceaucescu.
Yes, but don't forget all those countless but less memorable times when things didn't snowball and the regime reasserted itself brutally. Most coup attempts are defeated.
No matter what happens, the damage that has already been inflicted is fatal pretty quickly for the regime. Either there is a lot of violence and the regime kills the Wagnerites, but is severely weakened, in which case Putin is out as the ZSU break out across the Russian lines: or the regime simply fold its tents, in which case Putin is out; or Wagner fades (not looking likely atm, but the disruption to the Russian armed forces leads to a break out for the ZSU and Putin is still out.
Watch Belarus and the frozen conflicts now.
One frozen conflict which could suddenly unfreeze being South Ossetia of course.
Right now, the Russian army can't get to it in the event of trouble.
Watching the Chinese set their eyes on Vladivostok would be, I have to say, rather amusing.
Easier than Taiwan.... As their war-gaming will no doubt tell them.
I can't believe the government would be so stupid as to freeze public sector pay (well maybe I could) next year. Their employees would not stand for it, and nor should they stand for it.
Indeed, instead of a wage freeze the government needs to look at mass layoffs in order to increase pay. The public sector is unproductive and a major reason for it is that it is completely bloated. Sacking 20% of public sector employees would free up labour supply in the private sector, enable pay rises for the remaining 80% and allow for a big reduction in spending. I doubt anyone would notice either if the cuts were made among the army of do nothing paper shufflers.
Won’t work the redundancy payments would destroy the first 2 years of savings.
Also some departments are already stupidly short staffed - some HMRC helplines are currently closed for 3 months as the staff are needed elsewhere.
If that press briefing from the British MoD is right, they are just moving quietly to moscow.
I imagine Putin is extremely reluctant to get into open armed conflict with Wagner on Russian soil which couldn’t be described as anything but civil war. I bet he’s secretly negotiating his withered ass off with Prigozhin through ‘channels’, whether Big YVP is listening is another question.
Its too late. He is not negotiating, he is losing.
Rumours of an announcement of a transitional military government to be established in Miensk.
I can't believe the government would be so stupid as to freeze public sector pay (well maybe I could) next year. Their employees would not stand for it, and nor should they stand for it.
Indeed, instead of a wage freeze the government needs to look at mass layoffs in order to increase pay. The public sector is unproductive and a major reason for it is that it is completely bloated. Sacking 20% of public sector employees would free up labour supply in the private sector, enable pay rises for the remaining 80% and allow for a big reduction in spending. I doubt anyone would notice either if the cuts were made among the army of do nothing paper shufflers.
Yeah, firing doctors, nurses, policemen, firefighters and teachers is the way to go!
Perhaps not.
I could save you half a million in one hit. Sack Andrew Bailey.
Rishi Sunak, Andrew Bailey and Amanda Spielman are on a boat that capsizes. Who is saved?
I can't believe the government would be so stupid as to freeze public sector pay (well maybe I could) next year. Their employees would not stand for it, and nor should they stand for it.
Indeed, instead of a wage freeze the government needs to look at mass layoffs in order to increase pay. The public sector is unproductive and a major reason for it is that it is completely bloated. Sacking 20% of public sector employees would free up labour supply in the private sector, enable pay rises for the remaining 80% and allow for a big reduction in spending. I doubt anyone would notice either if the cuts were made among the army of do nothing paper shufflers.
Yeah, firing doctors, nurses, policemen, firefighters and teachers is the way to go!
Perhaps not.
I could save you half a million in one hit. Sack Andrew Bailey.
Rishi Sunak, Andrew Bailey and Amanda Spielman are on a boat that capsizes. Who is saved?
The UK.
That's very slightly harsh.
Spielman has buggered our education system but hasn't so far hasn't spread her tentacles elsewhere.
How does zonal planning as in Japan work exactly? "If I want to build a house in a housing zone then I can, without needing permission"? Presumably there are some constraints, or could I build the Empire State Building next to a cottage?
Right, there are constraints but they're objective, for instance how high you can build in the zone, and what ratio of floor space to land area you're allowed. There are then lots of safety-related things like needing a certain distance from the middle of the road, needing access to the road so that fire engines can get to you, and being a certain distance from a steep slope.
The other feature is that the zones mainly set nuisance level rather than usage type, so you can put a little house-sized factory in a residential zone, or a stonking massive great factory-sized house in an industrial zone. This makes Japan a much more *convenient* place to be than most other places I've been to, because little local things like small shops and laundrettes are where people want to use them rather than where the planners thought they should be.
The one place where there's still a bit of British-style permission-planning is that you're not allowed to *buy* previously agricultural land unless you're a registered farmer, and you have to ask a committee for permission to change the designation. You can't become a registered farmer unless you're already... farming some land. The government then frets that for some reason they don't have enough farmers and land gets abandoned. I had to wait about 8 months when trying to buy my place because the owner had made a contract to sell it to the real estate agent and took a deposit with the rest payable once the change of land designation had gone through the committee, and then she died in the meantime so the property now belonged to somebody else, and we had to wait while the real estate agent and the new owner threatened to sue each other.
If that press briefing from the British MoD is right, they are just moving quietly to moscow.
I imagine Putin is extremely reluctant to get into open armed conflict with Wagner on Russian soil which couldn’t be described as anything but civil war. I bet he’s secretly negotiating his withered ass off with Prigozhin through ‘channels’, whether Big YVP is listening is another question.
Its too late. He is not negotiating, he is losing.
Rumours of an announcement of a transitional military government to be established in Miensk.
Transitioning to what?
Again, I cannot imagine the Belarusian military handing over to the rightful government. Not only are they Lukashenko's patsies but too many of them were involved in the crimes he committed to stay in power.
If that press briefing from the British MoD is right, they are just moving quietly to moscow.
I imagine Putin is extremely reluctant to get into open armed conflict with Wagner on Russian soil which couldn’t be described as anything but civil war. I bet he’s secretly negotiating his withered ass off with Prigozhin through ‘channels’, whether Big YVP is listening is another question.
Its too late. He is not negotiating, he is losing.
Rumours of an announcement of a transitional military government to be established in Miensk.
That’s what it looks like. Ruthlessness is all in coup situations - react, or lose.
Two Lab voters for every Tory, and enough left over to cover MOE.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
Good morning
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
Yet the Triple Lock for pensioners goes ahead.
Tories deserve wipeout, and may well get it..
Is it time for a 0% freeze on all pensions, welfare, minimum wage, public sector pay for 2024 as a last ditch effort to control inflation? And cancel HS2 which is such a waste of money?
Yes and get rid of funding all those dodgy weirdo NGO's and stop paying crazy rents for people on welfare. No benefits for 2 years for immigrants and cut MP's expenses, HOL robbers etc. Make royals pay their own way for a change , no private planes , helicopters for MP's etc. Squeeze the barstewards till their pips sqeak.
If that press briefing from the British MoD is right, they are just moving quietly to moscow.
I imagine Putin is extremely reluctant to get into open armed conflict with Wagner on Russian soil which couldn’t be described as anything but civil war. I bet he’s secretly negotiating his withered ass off with Prigozhin through ‘channels’, whether Big YVP is listening is another question.
Its too late. He is not negotiating, he is losing.
Rumours of an announcement of a transitional military government to be established in Miensk.
That’s what it looks like. Ruthlessness is all in coup situations - react, or lose.
Ruthlessness and popularity among the fives that matter. Hence the ease with which Erdogan put down the coup in 2016.
We don’t want Wagner to win too easily though. They can be back in Ukraine quickly that way. Better a drawn out conflict somewhere between Rostov on Don and Moscow. Volgograd (Stalingrad), say.
I can't believe the government would be so stupid as to freeze public sector pay (well maybe I could) next year. Their employees would not stand for it, and nor should they stand for it.
When politically they feel unable to do so many other things they revert to what they have gotten away with before, something simple within their control. Eventually it will screw them.
If Wagner are able to advance so quickly, doesnt this suggest some form of military acquiescence?
If I were the military bods right now, would I even have the resources or the will to suppress a coup? The war is going badly, you’re demotivated, could it not be time for a change?
Meanwhile Putin’s statement had a hint of desperation to it, I thought. It makes me wonder if he is truly fully in control of events.
Two Lab voters for every Tory, and enough left over to cover MOE.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
Good morning
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
Yet the Triple Lock for pensioners goes ahead.
Tories deserve wipeout, and may well get it..
Is it time for a 0% freeze on all pensions, welfare, minimum wage, public sector pay for 2024 as a last ditch effort to control inflation? And cancel HS2 which is such a waste of money?
Yes and get rid of funding all those dodgy weirdo NGO's and stop paying crazy rents for people on welfare. No benefits for 2 years for immigrants and cut MP's expenses, HOL robbers etc. Make royals pay their own way for a change , no private planes , helicopters for MP's etc. Squeeze the barstewards till their pips sqeak.
I can't believe the government would be so stupid as to freeze public sector pay (well maybe I could) next year. Their employees would not stand for it, and nor should they stand for it.
Indeed, instead of a wage freeze the government needs to look at mass layoffs in order to increase pay. The public sector is unproductive and a major reason for it is that it is completely bloated. Sacking 20% of public sector employees would free up labour supply in the private sector, enable pay rises for the remaining 80% and allow for a big reduction in spending. I doubt anyone would notice either if the cuts were made among the army of do nothing paper shufflers.
Fewer civil servants. More work for private sector consultants. Sounds good.
Comments
Is it going to be one of those moments in the world direction of travel?
Hope the gees run better for you, btw.
Putin's problem now is that he is reliant on groups with unknown loyalties. I doubt that he has any better idea what will happen than we do.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672512610263080960
Numbers don’t count if everyone is either too scared, or too confused to fight you.
Wagner Group billboards are being taken down across Moscow.
https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1672513036329033728
A penny for his thoughts? "My, my, if only I hadn't had one too many Abba karaoke parties, Churchillian victory would be mine".
sudo apt update --fix-missing
sudo apt install -f
The opportunities for a break through here at substantially less cost than feared are significant.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672512604235808768
More window dressing, without direct action.
Definitely an aberration.
So saying that the oligopoly of large developers have land banks - do you think that (a) contradicts my point or (b) reinforces my point?
The simple fact is that it is the planning system that makes land banking worthwhile, profitable and necessary for the large firms and stands in the way of the small firms. If we had a sensible zonal planning system where planning consent was abolished, like in Japan, then land banking wouldn't make sense. You don't see landbanking in Japan.
What bothers me is how blatant they are about spending money on the wrong things and justifying it through bizarre and frequently forged 'business cases.'
The DfT, with its approach to electrification, not least the increasingly common insistence that trains carry [edit] what are effectively diesel and electric locomotives around at the same time, not to mention batteries also it seems, does recall to mind the relationship between the Dept of Education and education as you portray it.
So a nuclear civil war, shades of the neo-Nazi Turner Diaries?
The answer to that is almost certainly "No".
Could someone please explain to me what Prigozhin meant when he said he'd deal with any aviation sent against him? Has he got the weaponry to do that?
As @NickPalmer rightly points out, a key part of the background here is Putin's attempt to regularise contracts. How is morale among Wagner troops? Pretty clear that they detest Putin. The question is what they think of Prigozhin. Are their families getting paid well when they fall in combat? Is their own pay regular? What would be the implications for THEM if contracts were regularised, and how did they and do they perceive those implications? Wondering where this goes if Putin, or perhaps better for image reasons some silovik in uniform, says ребята you've done a brilliant job, Russia thanks you, and here is a cast-iron promise that if you see sense and stop obeying that traitor chienlit Prigozhin, who has long been in contact with foreign interests, who has bank accounts all over the place, etc. etc., then nothing bad will happen to you - and you have 24 hours to decide.
If that's happened in a mere twelve hours at the behest of 25,000 thugs with a few rifles and armoured vehicles something is seriously amiss.
Whatever is happening, and whatever happens, this is a total humiliation for the Russian army. Worse by far than the retreat from Kyiv.
https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1672516670391214082
If Russian military aviation was worth a damn, they could take it out easily.
I was never sure whether we should believe that figure or not, but if its true, then who's standing in Moscow to defend it from Wagner?
I wonder if the Russian military assumed that Ukraine would never dare to invade Russia properly, because of the threat of nukes would mean the West wouldn't let them, so they've left themselves completely exposed to their own forces?
Abolish Stamp Duty and Council Tax and replace with a Land Tax.
Have proper zoning to divide land into eg Residential, Industrial, Commercial, Parks, Nature etc
Then let people decide what to do with their own bloody land. Problem resolved.
But so far the response has been disorganised, minor, or non existent.
That could still change - as hinted at here:
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672517434316582912
If that press briefing from the British MoD is right, they are just moving quietly to moscow.
Central bankers endlessly rage against pay rises, but capitalism depends upon them.
Most likely still is Prizoghin ends up in a bodybag.
But its possible that Putin ends up in a bodybag.
Or Putin might suddenly find an urgent reason to fly out of Moscow.
Or both scorpions could die and something else arises.
We don't know. Its fun to watch though.
How does zonal planning as in Japan work exactly? "If I want to build a house in a housing zone then I can, without needing permission"? Presumably there are some constraints, or could I build the Empire State Building next to a cottage?
Stories of the Russians losing two helicopters, shot down near Rostov overnight.
https://twitter.com/mrjohnnicolson/status/1672511202688221184?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
❗️AP Wagner: "The trigger of the Civil War was pulled by Pypa [Putin]. Instead of sending one or two degenerates into retirement, he gave the order to neutralize the most combat-ready unit in Russia. The life of one or two traitors was placed above 25,000 heroes. Who is evil in this conflict is already obvious. The victory will be for PMC "Wagner".
AP Wagner is one of numerous channels associated with senior figures in Wagner.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672519052239986688
It's all remarkably quiet, and relaxed for them so far. They just seem to be moving from town to town, every few hours.
One of the regulations is on height, so no, you can't build the Empire State Building. You could choose to build a house, or apartments, or anything else within reason though, its your land, your choice. So you can get mixed and varied organic developments where different types of buildings are next to each other, rather than staid and uniform blocks of almost identikit buildings all from the same developer.
No need to ban big companies with a zonal system, because the market will do it for you. As Edmund explained, landbanking is deeply unprofitable in Japan, because you're paying the tax and so you want to get it built as soon as possible - and small firms can compete since they don't need to go through the consent process, just get land in the right zone and get on with the job.
Apparently.
Watch Belarus and the frozen conflicts now.
I've come across a few tails in my time that would turn your hair white.
On a serious note, nobody who is worried about safeguarding would call in OFSTED. They haven't a clue what it is. Spielman literally can't define it. If you're worried about safeguarding you call the local authority.
Right now, the Russian army can't get to it in the event of trouble.
Can’t wait for the second test to start.
Go Prigball.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2023/jun/23/child-identifying-as-cat-controversy-from-a-tiktok-video-to-media-frenzy
Watch out for accusations of Buddhism, shamanism, wicked Asian magic. (This isn't a joke BTW.)
Perhaps not.
I could save you half a million in one hit. Sack Andrew Bailey.
Wagner column moves towards Moscow, bypassing Voronezh - Vyorstka
The Russian TG channel counters claims by Reuters and BBC that Wagner had captured Voronezh like Rostov
🎥Wagner military columns on the highway near Voronezh
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1672520891350097922
Also some departments are already stupidly short staffed - some HMRC helplines are currently closed for 3 months as the staff are needed elsewhere.
Rumours of an announcement of a transitional military government to be established in Miensk.
The UK.
Spielman has buggered our education system but hasn't so far hasn't spread her tentacles elsewhere.
They'e just quietly rolling their way, and riding their support to Moscow, it seems.
The other feature is that the zones mainly set nuisance level rather than usage type, so you can put a little house-sized factory in a residential zone, or a stonking massive great factory-sized house in an industrial zone. This makes Japan a much more *convenient* place to be than most other places I've been to, because little local things like small shops and laundrettes are where people want to use them rather than where the planners thought they should be.
The one place where there's still a bit of British-style permission-planning is that you're not allowed to *buy* previously agricultural land unless you're a registered farmer, and you have to ask a committee for permission to change the designation. You can't become a registered farmer unless you're already... farming some land. The government then frets that for some reason they don't have enough farmers and land gets abandoned. I had to wait about 8 months when trying to buy my place because the owner had made a contract to sell it to the real estate agent and took a deposit with the rest payable once the change of land designation had gone through the committee, and then she died in the meantime so the property now belonged to somebody else, and we had to wait while the real estate agent and the new owner threatened to sue each other.
Again, I cannot imagine the Belarusian military handing over to the rightful government. Not only are they Lukashenko's patsies but too many of them were involved in the crimes he committed to stay in power.
Ruthlessness is all in coup situations - react, or lose.
Squeeze the barstewards till their pips sqeak.
We don’t want Wagner to win too easily though. They can be back in Ukraine quickly that way. Better a drawn out conflict somewhere between Rostov on Don and Moscow. Volgograd (Stalingrad), say.
If I were the military bods right now, would I even have the resources or the will to suppress a coup? The war is going badly, you’re demotivated, could it not be time for a change?
Meanwhile Putin’s statement had a hint of desperation to it, I thought. It makes me wonder if he is truly fully in control of events.
Fascinating to see turmoil in Russia again.
I wonder if by now assurances have been given to Prizoghin that enough military bodies are on his side and not the side of Putin and Shoigu?
There must be plenty in the military who are fed up with the death-toll from this misadventure and want it over.