Mordaunt second favourite to succeed Sunak as CON leader – politicalbetting.com

First.

She may well lose her seat

No wonder she gets lots of media attention. She is a blonde, like Mr Johnson.

The paucity of obvious talent is remarkable

The Tories need to go into opposition simply to rebuild. For younger figures to hone their skills fighting a Labour givernment

I'm starting to think a wipeout is possible, or it will be if Farage comes on the pitch in the 90th minute. I'm hearing core Conservatives giving up now - who are solid base.

Even my Dad, who's so staunch he makes @HYUFD look like a floating voter, has said they don't deserve another term. And I agreed with him.

He's never come close to saying anything like that before in his life.

Barclay is the value bet and will receive the backing of most Tory MPs who backed Sunak in 2021 who are re elected most likely.

Mordaunt is a solid performer but too woke and anti Boris for most Tory members. Cleverly is too lightweight and likely lacks MP support. Badenoch like last year will also likely fail to make the final 3 with Tory MPs, albeit could win if she went to the members vote. Wallace won't stand as he didn't last time either.

Carnyx said:

ydoethur said:

Malmesbury said:

malcolmg said:

Miklosvar said:

Unpopular said:

geoffw said:

Did they blow themselves up?

I've been trying to get my head around the strength of the physical forces that would have acted on the sub, water coming in fast enough to cut you in half, or just simply 'explode', which it obviously can't do because of the pressure involved on the sub makes an explosion impossible.

I'm guessing the force of the decompression just ripped the whole thing to pieces?

Compression not decompression, implosion not explosion. It will crumple inwards, like an empty plastic bottle you suck the air out of.

Any theories on why it would happen

Carbon fibre for pressure vessels has a troubled history.

Submarine pressure hulls (metal) are often limited to x number of compression/decompression cycles.

Even if the carbon fibre starts out perfect, the repeated compression cycle will eventually cause failure. The layers of carbon fibre will start to delaminate.

The safety engineer who got fired, stated that the quality of the layup of the carbon fibre was far from perfect. He also said that the quality was untested, directly. And that the system to monitor failure in the carbon fibre wouldn’t work, since it would only give an indication when it was already too late.

In addition the end cap and window for the vessel weren’t rated for 4000m.

So all in all, it probably wasn't a great idea to dive to the Titanic in it?

Just reflecting that 3500 m is about 350 bar pressure - ie 350 atmospheres. 5000lb psi, just about. The *peak* pressure in a diesel cylinder is about two-thirds of that for a turbocharged diesel.

If it failed, the phenomenon called dieseling probably occurred - the pressure rise would have been so sudden and violent that the contents of the pressure hull would have exploded like the charge in a diesel engine cylinder.

So implosion, taking milliseconds, followed by an explosion.

On the upside, certain death, faster than you could start to realise something was happening, let alone feel pain.

post GE 1997 - William Hague

post GE 2024 - William Hague Lite = Kemi Badenoch?

FPT: (rcs) “Agree re German wines. And while I love Nyetimber, I think that ship has already sailed; it is no longer cheap compared to similar Champagne, and looks downright expensive against US sparkling wine.”

Nyetimber has in my view a way to go. It’s seriously good stuff and their top sites have only just come on stream. They have a large planting round the corner from my vineyard and it’s (even) better terroir than mine. Certainly for Chardonnay. Their blanc de blancs was in the MW tasting exam this year.

Thing with ESW is it’s been discovered by the rich British but not yet by the world. The downside of course is the top bottles are already £100+ so I suppose don’t quite fit the brief.

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's worth remembering that, excellent as she was at wielding a ceremonial sword, Penny Mordaunt was all over the place during the last-but-one leadership contest. Essentially, the more she spoke, the more her support faltered.

BUT, she was - we now realise - dealing with a hideous family trauma in the background. That might - might - explain her poor performance

Since then she has done pretty well. And, more importantly, the Tories have very little choice. She's not posh and she speaks well in the Commons. She's probably their best bet

Leon said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's worth remembering that, excellent as she was at wielding a ceremonial sword, Penny Mordaunt was all over the place during the last-but-one leadership contest. Essentially, the more she spoke, the more her support faltered.

BUT, she was - we now realise - dealing with a hideous family trauma in the background. That might - might - explain her poor performance

Since then she has done pretty well. And, more importantly, the Tories have very little choice. She's not posh and she speaks well in the Commons. She's probably their best bet

They could certainly do a lot worse, that's for sure.

But this evening I’m drinking a basic 11% Mosel Riesling from Lidl and it’s very nice.

On topic, as someone who’s like to see the Tories in the wilderness for at least two terms I really don’t want Mordaunt. She’s too likeable and sensible sounding. I want a version of IDS in there: in equal parts bonkers and ineffectual.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Leon said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's worth remembering that, excellent as she was at wielding a ceremonial sword, Penny Mordaunt was all over the place during the last-but-one leadership contest. Essentially, the more she spoke, the more her support faltered.

BUT, she was - we now realise - dealing with a hideous family trauma in the background. That might - might - explain her poor performance

Since then she has done pretty well. And, more importantly, the Tories have very little choice. She's not posh and she speaks well in the Commons. She's probably their best bet

They could certainly do a lot worse, that's for sure.

Is her seat safe?

Is any Tory seat safe after today's news?

Leon said:

TimS said:

But this evening I’m drinking a basic 11% Mosel Riesling from Lidl and it’s very nice.

On topic, as someone who’s like to see the Tories in the wilderness for at least two terms I really don’t want Mordaunt. She’s too likeable and sensible sounding. I want a version of IDS in there: in equal parts bonkers and ineffectual.

Yes, if the Tories want a serious chance at returning after one term, Mordaunt is the choice. Badenoch (much as I approve of her fierce anti-Wokeness) will indicate they are turning in on themselves, and pursuing ideological warfare

Mordaunt is untainted by Boris or the Brexit strife, in public perception. And she certainly isn't a privately schooled billionaire

Yes she went to a comp like Truss but didn't even go to Oxford like Truss but Reading. Sir Keir who went to a grammar school turned private school and Oxford for postgrad would look posh relative to her

Leon said:

TimS said:

FPT: (rcs) “Agree re German wines. And while I love Nyetimber, I think that ship has already sailed; it is no longer cheap compared to similar Champagne, and looks downright expensive against US sparkling wine.”

Nyetimber has in my view a way to go. It’s seriously good stuff and their top sites have only just come on stream. They have a large planting round the corner from my vineyard and it’s (even) better terroir than mine. Certainly for Chardonnay. Their blanc de blancs was in the MW tasting exam this year.

Thing with ESW is it’s been discovered by the rich British but not yet by the world. The downside of course is the top bottles are already £100+ so I suppose don’t quite fit the brief.

I've seen English Fizz on the winelist in a couple of ultra-posh restaurants, one in Asia the other Italy (IIRC)

So it is perhaps beginning to be recognised, outside the UK, as high quality wine, with a snob value

Production is still very small by world standards (much less than 1% of sparkling wine made worldwide), with plenty of demand domestically, so it's not surprising that it's not often seen outside the UK. But the investment by prestigious champagne houses shows that it has certainly been noticed.

Explorers Club confirms some of the debris was from the submersible, RIP to those on the vessel and thoughts with their families

Casino_Royale said:

I'm starting to think a wipeout is possible, or it will be if Farage comes on the pitch in the 90th minute. I'm hearing core Conservatives giving up now - who are solid base.

Even my Dad, who's so staunch he makes @HYUFD look like a floating voter, has said they don't deserve another term. And I agreed with him.

He's never come close to saying anything like that before in his life.

Perhaps Starmer will win 500 seats and a load of paper candidates will accidently hold the balance of power.

HYUFD said:

Explorers Club confirms some of the debris was from the submersible, RIP to those on the vessel and thoughts with their families

Sad, but not a big surprise. I do wonder though why any sudden implosion wasn't picked up by the US military sensors.

HYUFD said:

Barclay is the value bet and will receive the backing of most Tory MPs who backed Sunak in 2021 who are re elected most likely.

Mordaunt is a solid performer but too woke and anti Boris for most Tory members. Cleverly is too lightweight and likely lacks MP support. Badenoch like last year will also likely fail to make the final 3 with Tory MPs, albeit could win if she went to the members vote. Wallace won't stand as he didn't last time either.

But Tory members are so high up the demographic curve that they are dying off at an alarming rate. The younger ones remaining may well give Mordaunt a punt.

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Leon said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's worth remembering that, excellent as she was at wielding a ceremonial sword, Penny Mordaunt was all over the place during the last-but-one leadership contest. Essentially, the more she spoke, the more her support faltered.

BUT, she was - we now realise - dealing with a hideous family trauma in the background. That might - might - explain her poor performance

Since then she has done pretty well. And, more importantly, the Tories have very little choice. She's not posh and she speaks well in the Commons. She's probably their best bet

They could certainly do a lot worse, that's for sure.

Is her seat safe?

Is any Tory seat safe after today's news?

On paper, no. But she does her constituency work, makes the most of her (objectively, pretty meagre) navy connections, and both Labour and LibDems will be shooting for her seat. She could be a good value bet when the next GE seat markers go up.

Richard_Nabavi said:

HYUFD said:

Explorers Club confirms some of the debris was from the submersible, RIP to those on the vessel and thoughts with their families

Sad, but not a big surprise. I do wonder though why any sudden implosion wasn't picked up by the US military sensors.

I don't know how they work. Do they monitor events anywhere in the ocean, or not bother beyond certain depths?

Bearing in mind as well it was a very small object compared to the things they would usually monitor.

If those three are the best the Tory party has to offer, the decline really must be terminal.

TimS said:

But this evening I’m drinking a basic 11% Mosel Riesling from Lidl and it’s very nice.

On topic, as someone who’s like to see the Tories in the wilderness for at least two terms I really don’t want Mordaunt. She’s too likeable and sensible sounding. I want a version of IDS in there: in equal parts bonkers and ineffectual.

A nice Rousanne from the Rhône.

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

I'm starting to think a wipeout is possible, or it will be if Farage comes on the pitch in the 90th minute. I'm hearing core Conservatives giving up now - who are solid base.

Even my Dad, who's so staunch he makes @HYUFD look like a floating voter, has said they don't deserve another term. And I agreed with him.

He's never come close to saying anything like that before in his life.

Yes but almost inevitable. The last PM to win a 5th consecutive general election for his party was the Earl of Liverpool for the Pittite Tories in 1826 when less than 5% of the UK population were able to vote

Alternatively, it has only been eight years that the Conservatives have been in power on their own.

So... the abortion debate personified:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65923956

An evil woman, or a heroine?

Leon said:

TimS said:

But this evening I’m drinking a basic 11% Mosel Riesling from Lidl and it’s very nice.

On topic, as someone who’s like to see the Tories in the wilderness for at least two terms I really don’t want Mordaunt. She’s too likeable and sensible sounding. I want a version of IDS in there: in equal parts bonkers and ineffectual.

Yes, if the Tories want a serious chance at returning after one term...

Why would they? At this moment in time, they don't know what they're doing. They don't have a guiding ideology any more after Truss exploded on the pad, and the only replacement in sight is National Conservatism. They may well prefer licking the forbidden fruit (Orban sooo gooood) instead of doing some actual governing. I'm sure Sunak doesn't like standing in front of workers like a real boy and saying words he doesn't believe to an audience that don't like him. He can cheerfully just let it go, put "Prime Minister" on his CV and hit the lecture circuit, followed by a sinecure in a fashionable US state whilst his wife spends her money on things that aren't British.

Leon said:

TimS said:

FPT: (rcs) “Agree re German wines. And while I love Nyetimber, I think that ship has already sailed; it is no longer cheap compared to similar Champagne, and looks downright expensive against US sparkling wine.”

Nyetimber has in my view a way to go. It’s seriously good stuff and their top sites have only just come on stream. They have a large planting round the corner from my vineyard and it’s (even) better terroir than mine. Certainly for Chardonnay. Their blanc de blancs was in the MW tasting exam this year.

Thing with ESW is it’s been discovered by the rich British but not yet by the world. The downside of course is the top bottles are already £100+ so I suppose don’t quite fit the brief.

I've seen English Fizz on the winelist in a couple of ultra-posh restaurants, one in Asia the other Italy (IIRC)

So it is perhaps beginning to be recognised, outside the UK, as high quality wine, with a snob value

Being able to palm off poor quality over-acidic white wine as some sort of premium product, because it’s been run through the soda stream, is base camp as far as credible wine making is concerned.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

post GE 1997 - William Hague

post GE 2024 - William Hague Lite = Kemi Badenoch?

Nah. Barclay is more like Hague (or EdM); significant figure in the old government, thinks like a government man, likely to flounder in opposition, because it's a different game.

If history really rhymes, the sequence will be Barclay (loses), Badenoch (blows up), Mordaunt (loses, but respectably), someone unknown (the next Conservative PM).

Ten years doesn't take long if you say it quickly.

TimS said:

IanB2 said:

TimS said:

But this evening I’m drinking a basic 11% Mosel Riesling from Lidl and it’s very nice.

On topic, as someone who’s like to see the Tories in the wilderness for at least two terms I really don’t want Mordaunt. She’s too likeable and sensible sounding. I want a version of IDS in there: in equal parts bonkers and ineffectual.

A nice Rousanne from the Rhône.

Lovely. My favourite whites are chewy fudgy Southern Rhône ones, Marsanne-Rousanne and Grenache blanc.

I'm really quite enamoured of English whites at the moment. The Bacchus grape works very well it seems. Otherwise Puligny Montrachet all the way!

TimS said:

My brethren at Winegb are forever worrying about English overproduction. Sometimes they need to be bright back to ground on actual volumes.

I am in pre-production stage (2 year old vines) and facing the dilemma of market positioning. Unlike many vineyards I don’t have the space (or time of interest) in becoming essentially a hospitality venue that happens to make wine, which is how many of them break even. And I’m not big enough nor are yields high enough to go cheap. So I have to be premium. But there are 3 routes to premium: natural wine / trendy hipster labels, POSH in the style of the parasol-touting houses like Nyetimber, Simpsons and Gusbourne, or the as-yet not very well developed boutique market: grower sparklings. I’m going for the latter but it’s not easy without a big marketing budget.

I think the market for good-quality small vineyards will develop very nicely. One of our local producers is Fox & Fox, who are quite small but make very good sparkling wines, and they seem to be doing well. The key is consistent quality.

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

I'm starting to think a wipeout is possible, or it will be if Farage comes on the pitch in the 90th minute. I'm hearing core Conservatives giving up now - who are solid base.

Even my Dad, who's so staunch he makes @HYUFD look like a floating voter, has said they don't deserve another term. And I agreed with him.

He's never come close to saying anything like that before in his life.

Yes but almost inevitable. The last PM to win a 5th consecutive general election for his party was the Earl of Liverpool for the Pittite Tories in 1826 when less than 5% of the UK population were able to vote

Alternatively, it has only been eight years that the Conservatives have been in power on their own.

So the apposite question is how long before they get that opportunity again?

Richard_Nabavi said:

ydoethur said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

HYUFD said:

Explorers Club confirms some of the debris was from the submersible, RIP to those on the vessel and thoughts with their families

Sad, but not a big surprise. I do wonder though why any sudden implosion wasn't picked up by the US military sensors.

I don't know how they work. Do they monitor events anywhere in the ocean, or not bother beyond certain depths?

Bearing in mind as well it was a very small object compared to the things they would usually monitor.

I don't know enough about it, but I'd have thought a sudden implosion at extremely high pressure would make a fair bit of an underwater bang, and the sensors are said to be very sensitive over considerable distances. I might be completely wrong, of course.

Well, bang(s) WERE heard and reported; perhaps they were the submersible imploding?

Richard_Nabavi said:

TimS said:

My brethren at Winegb are forever worrying about English overproduction. Sometimes they need to be bright back to ground on actual volumes.

I am in pre-production stage (2 year old vines) and facing the dilemma of market positioning. Unlike many vineyards I don’t have the space (or time of interest) in becoming essentially a hospitality venue that happens to make wine, which is how many of them break even. And I’m not big enough nor are yields high enough to go cheap. So I have to be premium. But there are 3 routes to premium: natural wine / trendy hipster labels, POSH in the style of the parasol-touting houses like Nyetimber, Simpsons and Gusbourne, or the as-yet not very well developed boutique market: grower sparklings. I’m going for the latter but it’s not easy without a big marketing budget.

I think the market for good-quality small vineyards will develop very nicely. One of our local producers is Fox & Fox, who are quite small but make very good sparkling wines, and they seem to be doing well. The key is consistent quality.

They also handily have a weather station on the Davis vantage pro network so I get to see their live weather. They are less frost prone but cooler in daytime than me.

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

I'm starting to think a wipeout is possible, or it will be if Farage comes on the pitch in the 90th minute. I'm hearing core Conservatives giving up now - who are solid base.

Even my Dad, who's so staunch he makes @HYUFD look like a floating voter, has said they don't deserve another term. And I agreed with him.

He's never come close to saying anything like that before in his life.

Yes but almost inevitable. The last PM to win a 5th consecutive general election for his party was the Earl of Liverpool for the Pittite Tories in 1826 when less than 5% of the UK population were able to vote

All very well for you to say it's inevitable, you chose the current pair of tosspots who are dragging the party to oblivion.

Richard_Nabavi said:

ydoethur said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

HYUFD said:

Explorers Club confirms some of the debris was from the submersible, RIP to those on the vessel and thoughts with their families

Sad, but not a big surprise. I do wonder though why any sudden implosion wasn't picked up by the US military sensors.

I don't know how they work. Do they monitor events anywhere in the ocean, or not bother beyond certain depths?

Bearing in mind as well it was a very small object compared to the things they would usually monitor.

I don't know enough about it, but I'd have thought a sudden implosion at extremely high pressure would make a fair bit of an underwater bang, and the sensors are said to be very sensitive over considerable distances. I might be completely wrong, of course.

Sound travels *really* well in water. However, it is also subject to weird effects, such as thermoclines (water of differing temperatures), and if near the bottom, topographies. It was also not a big pressure vessel.

edit: aiui, we also don't have a great deal of experience of sound at such great depths. Most submarines have crush deaths of 200-1,000 metres. This vessel may have been much deeper, and sound may behave differently.

Omnium said:

TimS said:

IanB2 said:

TimS said:

But this evening I’m drinking a basic 11% Mosel Riesling from Lidl and it’s very nice.

On topic, as someone who’s like to see the Tories in the wilderness for at least two terms I really don’t want Mordaunt. She’s too likeable and sensible sounding. I want a version of IDS in there: in equal parts bonkers and ineffectual.

A nice Rousanne from the Rhône.

Lovely. My favourite whites are chewy fudgy Southern Rhône ones, Marsanne-Rousanne and Grenache blanc.

I'm really quite enamoured of English whites at the moment. The Bacchus grape works very well it seems. Otherwise Puligny Montrachet all the way!

There's a Bacchus made in Norfolk of all places for a vineyard that's really great. Winbirri I believe is the maker's name.

Omnium said:

IanB2 said:

Omnium said:

TimS said:

IanB2 said:

TimS said:

But this evening I’m drinking a basic 11% Mosel Riesling from Lidl and it’s very nice.

On topic, as someone who’s like to see the Tories in the wilderness for at least two terms I really don’t want Mordaunt. She’s too likeable and sensible sounding. I want a version of IDS in there: in equal parts bonkers and ineffectual.

A nice Rousanne from the Rhône.

Lovely. My favourite whites are chewy fudgy Southern Rhône ones, Marsanne-Rousanne and Grenache blanc.

I'm really quite enamoured of English whites at the moment. The Bacchus grape works very well it seems. Otherwise Puligny Montrachet all the way!

The giveaway with most English wine is that they use grapes that are unheard of anywhere else in the winemaking world.

The proof is how it tastes, and almost all English wine these days is decent enough, and some really quite impressive.

Using odd grapes might sound like a bad idea, but it ain't when it works. In England it seems Bacchus works really rather well.

The 3 most planted vine varieties in England by acreage are Chardonnay, then Pinot noir, then Pinot Meunier. With the decent (though not to my taste) Bacchus 4th. Then a huge gap to the next lot.

I’ve planted Meunier, Pinot noir, and Melon de Bourgogne which is hardly an obscure variety given it dominates the Loire atlantique.

viewcode said:

JosiasJessop said:

So... the abortion debate personified:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65923956

An evil woman, or a heroine?

I read that, and thought it was odd. Abortion is outside the Overton window in the UK, despite efforts to pull it back, and coverage of the debate in the States can be done by statistical analysis, reportage and interviews with politicians. I don't know why they found it necessary to profile an individual. Although to be fair, when I read it I found it interesting and informative, so there's that. Next week, the BBC interviews Bob Jeb Jebbity-Bob III, who wants to make homosexuality illegal in Alabama.

She's an individual, but she heads SFLA, a pro-life student group. And according to the article: "SFLA now has 1,400 campus groups in all 50 states"

So whilst she is just an individual, she may have considerable political power.

I am coming to the conclusion that the Sunak experiment has failed. He just does not have the gravitas a PM needs. The Tories need to gamble (again) and get an elder statesman in. Lord Hague would be ideal.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Omnium said:

TimS said:

IanB2 said:

TimS said:

But this evening I’m drinking a basic 11% Mosel Riesling from Lidl and it’s very nice.

On topic, as someone who’s like to see the Tories in the wilderness for at least two terms I really don’t want Mordaunt. She’s too likeable and sensible sounding. I want a version of IDS in there: in equal parts bonkers and ineffectual.

A nice Rousanne from the Rhône.

Lovely. My favourite whites are chewy fudgy Southern Rhône ones, Marsanne-Rousanne and Grenache blanc.

I'm really quite enamoured of English whites at the moment. The Bacchus grape works very well it seems. Otherwise Puligny Montrachet all the way!

There's a Bacchus made in Norfolk of all places for a vineyard that's really great. Winbirri I believe is the maker's name.

Meaning apparently wine berry in old Anglo Saxon. I wouldn’t say I loved it but could
appreciate the purity. Bacchus will disappear
on the coming decades as the climate gets
too hot and Sauvignon blanc takes over. SB
already does well in parts of the South. Mènetou-salon style, ie the more austere Loire version but less full than Sancerre or PF.

Just cracked open a bottle of The Wine Society's 2022 Austrian Riesling

It's described as dry, but I think that's because it has a has a quite sharp and citrussy initial hit, but the flavour afterwards is all off-dry Riesling. It balances rather nicely

I bet it would go well with oysters and other seafood, but I'm just guzzling it on its own. I might have a bit left when I cook my fishfingers, chips and peas later

Definitely decent value at a tenner a bottle

I have priorities

https://www.thewinesociety.com/product/the-societys-austrian-riesling-2022

Luckyguy1983 said:

TimS said:

Omnium said:

IanB2 said:

Omnium said:

TimS said:

IanB2 said:

TimS said:

But this evening I’m drinking a basic 11% Mosel Riesling from Lidl and it’s very nice.

On topic, as someone who’s like to see the Tories in the wilderness for at least two terms I really don’t want Mordaunt. She’s too likeable and sensible sounding. I want a version of IDS in there: in equal parts bonkers and ineffectual.

A nice Rousanne from the Rhône.

Lovely. My favourite whites are chewy fudgy Southern Rhône ones, Marsanne-Rousanne and Grenache blanc.

I'm really quite enamoured of English whites at the moment. The Bacchus grape works very well it seems. Otherwise Puligny Montrachet all the way!

The giveaway with most English wine is that they use grapes that are unheard of anywhere else in the winemaking world.

The proof is how it tastes, and almost all English wine these days is decent enough, and some really quite impressive.

Using odd grapes might sound like a bad idea, but it ain't when it works. In England it seems Bacchus works really rather well.

The 3 most planted vine varieties in England by acreage are Chardonnay, then Pinot noir, then Pinot Meunier. With the decent (though not to my taste) Bacchus 4th. Then a huge gap to the next lot.

I’ve planted Meunier, Pinot noir, and Melon de Bourgogne which is hardly an obscure variety given it dominates the Loire atlantique.

Do you find any merit in the suggestion that English winemakers should just copy the Germans because we have a similar lattitude?

That’s what we used to do, but our climate is much more similar to Champagne, Chablis and the Northern Loire than Germany. We’re not continental enough. We still can’t ripen riesling reliably. We do Ok with Pinot gris/grauburgunder. We’ve had much more success with Atlantic-facing varieties.

viewcode said:

JosiasJessop said:

So... the abortion debate personified:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65923956

An evil woman, or a heroine?

I read that, and thought it was odd. Abortion is outside the Overton window in the UK, despite efforts to pull it back, and coverage of the debate in the States can be done by statistical analysis, reportage and interviews with politicians. I don't know why they found it necessary to profile an individual. Although to be fair, when I read it I found it interesting and informative, so there's that. Next week, the BBC interviews Bob Jeb Jebbity-Bob III, who wants to make homosexuality illegal in Alabama.

There are two sorts of Overton window about this in the UK. The legislative one, in which most people mostly support the woman's right to choose, while there is some debate as to exact boundaries and time details. I think this is largely because all alternatives are worse on the whole that the status quo.

The second window is about how people should act given the freedom women have. This is not about law but social and personal norms. Loads of people think that abortion should be much less common than it is; while I suspect few think there should be more than there are. Many are as uncomfortable with lawful mass abortion as they would be with the entire adult population lawfully smoking 60 a day.

HYUFD said:

viewcode said:

IanB2 said:

But Tory members are so high up the demographic curve that they are dying off at an alarming rate...

No they are not. Given life expectancies and the late-life care which your older Conservative Party member can no doubt afford, somebody mid-seventies will have about fifteen years in front of them. Unpleasant years, but still there and still capable of putting a cross on a postal vote form.

We keep saying that they are dying off, but there are A LOT of pensioners and for around the next ten-fifteen years they will remain the dominant force in British politics. When it switches it will switch fast as they begin to be outnumbered by younger votes in sufficient proportion to outweigh differential turnout by age, but until then it will be pensionerism all the way...

Even then the median voter will be aged 50 still not 30

Taking into account both raw demographics and propensity to vote, I believe that the median voter is aged about 55. This value is likely to keep creeping slowly up for the foreseeable, because so many younger people aren't forming families for various reasons, not least the crippling cost. Yet another issue that can be put down to the full spectrum catastrophe that is the British property market.

Not that this is any real use to the Conservatives in the long run, because people are no longer moving rightwards as they age. Being the party of the landed interest - minted pensioner owner-occupiers, their heirs and rentiers - only wins elections so long as there are enough of those people around to keep voting for you. Those who have neither significant assets nor any realistic prospect of accruing them have nothing to conserve and, consequently, no use for conservatism.

JosiasJessop said:

Jonathan said:

I am coming to the conclusion that the Sunak experiment has failed. He just does not have the gravitas a PM needs. The Tories need to gamble (again) and get an elder statesman in. Lord Hague would be ideal.

Do you believe Starmer has the gravitas a PM needs? If so, why?

He's an eminent KC and former DPP, they are the epitome of gravitas overload.

Luckyguy1983 said:

TimS said:

Omnium said:

IanB2 said:

Omnium said:

TimS said:

IanB2 said:

TimS said:

But this evening I’m drinking a basic 11% Mosel Riesling from Lidl and it’s very nice.

On topic, as someone who’s like to see the Tories in the wilderness for at least two terms I really don’t want Mordaunt. She’s too likeable and sensible sounding. I want a version of IDS in there: in equal parts bonkers and ineffectual.

A nice Rousanne from the Rhône.

Lovely. My favourite whites are chewy fudgy Southern Rhône ones, Marsanne-Rousanne and Grenache blanc.

I'm really quite enamoured of English whites at the moment. The Bacchus grape works very well it seems. Otherwise Puligny Montrachet all the way!

The giveaway with most English wine is that they use grapes that are unheard of anywhere else in the winemaking world.

The proof is how it tastes, and almost all English wine these days is decent enough, and some really quite impressive.

Using odd grapes might sound like a bad idea, but it ain't when it works. In England it seems Bacchus works really rather well.

The 3 most planted vine varieties in England by acreage are Chardonnay, then Pinot noir, then Pinot Meunier. With the decent (though not to my taste) Bacchus 4th. Then a huge gap to the next lot.

I’ve planted Meunier, Pinot noir, and Melon de Bourgogne which is hardly an obscure variety given it dominates the Loire atlantique.

Do you find any merit in the suggestion that English winemakers should just copy the Germans because we have a similar lattitude?

It’s surely more complex than that. Terroir plus climate are huge factors.

Luckyguy1983 said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

I'm starting to think a wipeout is possible, or it will be if Farage comes on the pitch in the 90th minute. I'm hearing core Conservatives giving up now - who are solid base.

Even my Dad, who's so staunch he makes @HYUFD look like a floating voter, has said they don't deserve another term. And I agreed with him.

He's never come close to saying anything like that before in his life.

Yes but almost inevitable. The last PM to win a 5th consecutive general election for his party was the Earl of Liverpool for the Pittite Tories in 1826 when less than 5% of the UK population were able to vote

All very well for you to say it's inevitable, you chose the current pair of tosspots who are dragging the party to oblivion.

And you supported Truss - you couldn't make it up

In gastronomic news (I am doing a lazy dinner for the kids) it’s bloody annoying that Chicken Kyiv is harder to pronounce than Chicken Kiev. The pronunciation equivalent of reliance on Nordstream 2.

Watching the highlights of the women's test match between England and Australia on BBC2.