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Another tricky by-election defence for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,114
edited June 2023 in General
imageAnother tricky by-election defence for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

Source:https://t.co/ch1aGdfoNd

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Comments

  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,043
    D'abord
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,675
    @TelePolitics

    🔵 A Conservative KC in the running to be the party’s nominee for London mayor has revealed he is a “passionate Remainer”

    https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1670168778624122880
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,052
    The Tories are just falling apart at the moment... whom the God's would destroy, they first make mad.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,005
    I've seen a comment from a Labour activist saying something to the effect of "Give us Mid Beds now you have Somerton & Frome".
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    What's par for wrong 'uns in an organisation?

    I say this because every company I've worked for has it, HR cases and gross misconduct, but they're normally silently crowbarred out with NDAs and of course it feels far higher in politics because they get such publicity.

    But we must have had 25-35 cases of dodgy MPs across all parties over the last 3 years and that's pushing 5%.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    Cicero said:

    The Tories are just falling apart at the moment... whom the God's would destroy, they first make mad.

    Warburton always was a bit half baked.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,779
    Cicero said:

    The Tories are just falling apart at the moment... whom the God's would destroy, they first make mad.

    Perhaps - I certainly wouldn't consider a by-election in Somerton & Frome a penalty kick for the LDs.

    There's Green strength around Frome for example and Wincanton & Bruton remained Conservative even as the LDs were winning control of Somerset Council in 2022.

    Somerset absorbed Mendip, Sedgemoor, South Somerset and Somerset West & Taunton and became a Unitary on April 1st.

    Compared to the mountains scaled in this Parliament, however, it's fair to say the 14.8% swing required by the LD should be achievable and doubtless the party will strain every sinew to make it happen even if it's also working Mid Bedfordshire and Selby & Ainsty hard.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    It's becoming not so much a by-election but a series of bye-bye elections.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028

    It's becoming not so much a by-election but a series of bye-bye elections.

    More a series of sellouts who haven't been bought.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,971
    edited June 2023
    Are the Russians preparing to claim victory and then fuck off out of Ukraine?

    "The Kyiv Independent
    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡ Kremlin spokesman claims Ukraine largely 'demilitarized'.

    Kremlin press secretary Dmitriy Peskov claimed that Russia's goal of "demilitarizing" Ukraine was largely completed, saying that it was using "fewer and fewer of its own weapons" and increasingly relying on weapons provided by the West."


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1670168560700735489

    Would be one way to end the war before the Russian army completely disintegrates.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625
    ydoethur said:

    Cicero said:

    The Tories are just falling apart at the moment... whom the God's would destroy, they first make mad.

    Warburton always was a bit half baked.
    Loves crumpet
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028

    Are the Russians preparing to claim victory and then fuck off out of Ukraine?

    "The Kyiv Independent
    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡ Kremlin spokesman claims Ukraine largely 'demilitarized'.

    Kremlin press secretary Dmitriy Peskov claimed that Russia's goal of "demilitarizing" Ukraine was largely completed, saying that it was using "fewer and fewer of its own weapons" and increasingly relying on weapons provided by the West."


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1670168560700735489

    Would be one way to end the war before the Russian army completely disintegrates.

    It is bizarre to say a country is demilitarised because it is using more and better weapons at the end of a war than it had at the start.

    But the whole thing has been bizarre.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,161
    Sex and cocaine? Typical greedy Tory.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705

    Sex and cocaine? Typical greedy Tory.

    Next he'll be wanting some rock'n'roll.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,860
    A lib dem win in Somerton and Frome would hopefully encourage them to try to gain the adjoining North East Somerset constituency.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,779

    Are the Russians preparing to claim victory and then fuck off out of Ukraine?

    "The Kyiv Independent
    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡ Kremlin spokesman claims Ukraine largely 'demilitarized'.

    Kremlin press secretary Dmitriy Peskov claimed that Russia's goal of "demilitarizing" Ukraine was largely completed, saying that it was using "fewer and fewer of its own weapons" and increasingly relying on weapons provided by the West."


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1670168560700735489

    Would be one way to end the war before the Russian army completely disintegrates.

    It would indeed - were the Russians to unilaterally and completely withdraw from all Ukrainian territory, including the Crimea, I doubt there'd be many calling it anything other than a victory for Zelenskyy. However, if Putin wants to sell something different to his people, that's his business I suppose.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    stodge said:

    Are the Russians preparing to claim victory and then fuck off out of Ukraine?

    "The Kyiv Independent
    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡ Kremlin spokesman claims Ukraine largely 'demilitarized'.

    Kremlin press secretary Dmitriy Peskov claimed that Russia's goal of "demilitarizing" Ukraine was largely completed, saying that it was using "fewer and fewer of its own weapons" and increasingly relying on weapons provided by the West."


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1670168560700735489

    Would be one way to end the war before the Russian army completely disintegrates.

    It would indeed - were the Russians to unilaterally and completely withdraw from all Ukrainian territory, including the Crimea, I doubt there'd be many calling it anything other than a victory for Zelenskyy. However, if Putin wants to sell something different to his people, that's his business I suppose.
    I doubt if he'd be able to. Ultimately, withdrawing would be seen as a failure.

    It might not lead to his overthrow by the people, but I can imagine manoeuvres in the Kremlin would intensify.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    Hello, I am under 40.

    I know the Tories hate me but I am a house owner.

    Okay xx bye
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    Cicero said:

    The Tories are just falling apart at the moment... whom the God's would destroy, they first make mad.

    Very Labour 2009-2010.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    When people are quitting this far out from the potential end of the government, it is hard to avoid the obvious comparisons to rats and sinking ships, even when the reason is distinct as in this latest case.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    Dominic Grieve seems a decent chap despite my disagreeing with almost everything he believes. He seems to have been in politics for the right reasons like Mrs Thatcher.

    So it makes perfect sense he's been removed from the Tory Party.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    kle4 said:

    When people are quitting this far out from the potential end of the government, it is hard to avoid the obvious comparisons to rats and sinking ships, even when the reason is distinct as in this latest case.

    Happened to Major. Emma Nicholson, Alan Howarth and various others.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:

    Are the Russians preparing to claim victory and then fuck off out of Ukraine?

    "The Kyiv Independent
    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡ Kremlin spokesman claims Ukraine largely 'demilitarized'.

    Kremlin press secretary Dmitriy Peskov claimed that Russia's goal of "demilitarizing" Ukraine was largely completed, saying that it was using "fewer and fewer of its own weapons" and increasingly relying on weapons provided by the West."


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1670168560700735489

    Would be one way to end the war before the Russian army completely disintegrates.

    It would indeed - were the Russians to unilaterally and completely withdraw from all Ukrainian territory, including the Crimea, I doubt there'd be many calling it anything other than a victory for Zelenskyy. However, if Putin wants to sell something different to his people, that's his business I suppose.
    I doubt if he'd be able to. Ultimately, withdrawing would be seen as a failure.

    It might not lead to his overthrow by the people, but I can imagine manoeuvres in the Kremlin would intensify.
    I'm sure the increase of Russian territory was broadly welcomed in Russia itself, but even with the propaganda I do wonder what the average Russian feels about the annexation of some of the regions that were included. Donetsk and Luhansk have long had the largest parts under de facto Russian control, but the the other two seem pretty obviously included for the sake of the Crimean land bridge, and despite being purportedly Russian territory the capital of Kherson was released through a withdrawal rather than the type of fight one would expect if they genuinely saw it as a regional Russian capital.

    So I wonder if the average Russian would, in fact, be releatively happy with the pre-2022 line, or just slightly expanded - even if they hope for far more.

    Of course, we all hope Ukraine can get far beyond that - not least since there will be no safety until Russia believes it cannot try again.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,141
    The DT still flogging a dead horse with more faux hysteria over Sue Gray .

    And we’re supposed to have faith in what Simon Case has to say !
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576

    A lib dem win in Somerton and Frome would hopefully encourage them to try to gain the adjoining North East Somerset constituency.

    They did a good job pulling activists in from all over the region as part of efforts to take Bath, which is now pretty solid again, so they have local resources in the general area to call upon.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    Boris Johnson went up against the former Director of Public Prosecutions.

    The former Director brought receipts and like any good lawyer, buried Johnson with his own words.

    Keir Starmer has played a very slow but precise game.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,675
    @kateferguson4

    Uh oh, more trouble ahead for Rishi Sunak from ANOTHER ex PM.

    Liz Truss teams up with Priti Patel to spearhead Tory tax revolt in Parliament this week
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    edited June 2023
    stodge said:

    Cicero said:

    The Tories are just falling apart at the moment... whom the God's would destroy, they first make mad.

    Perhaps - I certainly wouldn't consider a by-election in Somerton & Frome a penalty kick for the LDs.

    There's Green strength around Frome for example and Wincanton & Bruton remained Conservative even as the LDs were winning control of Somerset Council in 2022.

    Somerset absorbed Mendip, Sedgemoor, South Somerset and Somerset West & Taunton and became a Unitary on April 1st.

    Compared to the mountains scaled in this Parliament, however, it's fair to say the 14.8% swing required by the LD should be achievable and doubtless the party will strain every sinew to make it happen even if it's also working Mid Bedfordshire and Selby & Ainsty hard.
    I suspect Warburton has gone now at the behest of Central Office so that the expected by-election losses can be got over with on the same day. I disagree with you on this not being a LD penalty kick, the "expected goal" stats for penalty kicks is close to 80% and their implied win probability is surely better than that.

    If there were any proper coordination in play, I would now expect the LDs to focus on Somerton and (in time) Mid Beds while Labour focused on Uxbridge and Selby. Two each.

    John Grogan held Selby for Labour for a decade prior to 2010, albeit on old boundaries slightly more favourable to Labour, so they will give that one a decent go, even if it's still a long shot.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    nico679 said:

    The DT still flogging a dead horse with more faux hysteria over Sue Gray .

    And we’re supposed to have faith in what Simon Case has to say !

    According to the report it wasn’t written by him.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting bar chart on voting for the under 35's. None of the supposed factors of maturity (homeowner, marriage, good job, children etc) makes much difference in likehood to vote Conservative:



    https://twitter.com/epkaufm/status/1670006524947595265?t=frP8lrtWqf448zcU6Pdikw&s=19

    The chancellor is saying that interest rate rises are needed to control inflation.
    So one group (people with large mortgages) effectively foot the bill for controlling inflation.
    The people with large mortgages are the aspirational under 40's, the professional classes who supposedly vote conservative.
    So unless the Conservatives find a way of controlling interest rates, they are going to lose nearly everyone under 40.

    These remarks from the government about rising interest rates being necessary are politically unwise.
    And that will become Labour's problem in 18 months time and they may also find their hands are tied.

    Personally, I do wonder how thought-through this is: people aren't on variable rates anymore and continually whacking up interest rates, and rates alone, to kill inflation basically through engineering a housing market collapse and a recession seems remarkably crude to me.
    The voters won’t switch their blame from the Tories to Labour the instant Starmer enters No. 10. The previous lot will continue to carry most of the blame for several years.
    Economic crises can be politically unforgiving, particularly if the new administration wants to borrow, tax and spend even more.
    Cameron inherited a mess in 2010 and the voters didn’t blame him. Thatcher inherited problems and the voters didn’t blame her. Starmer will get the benefit of the doubt too.
    That's simply an assertion: there's no cast iron law that validates that. And you forget both Cameron and Thatcher had a torrid time inside 24 months of taking office.

    We could be entering another period like the 1970s, where voters continually switch parties in a frustrated search for economic answers.
    That would be most exciting, though for now I'll keep my money on the trend of the last 40 years.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    edited June 2023
    Scott_xP said:

    @kateferguson4

    Uh oh, more trouble ahead for Rishi Sunak from ANOTHER ex PM.

    Liz Truss teams up with Priti Patel to spearhead Tory tax revolt in Parliament this week

    Can Weak Rishi just call a GE now and get it over with? Nothing is going to turn up, he is done.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,141
    RobD said:

    nico679 said:

    The DT still flogging a dead horse with more faux hysteria over Sue Gray .

    And we’re supposed to have faith in what Simon Case has to say !

    According to the report it wasn’t written by him.
    His grubby prints are over this together with a “government lawyer “.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    Casino seems to think I will start voting Tory within 18 months. Not long enough. 5 years and we can talk.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576

    Scott_xP said:

    @kateferguson4

    Uh oh, more trouble ahead for Rishi Sunak from ANOTHER ex PM.

    Liz Truss teams up with Priti Patel to spearhead Tory tax revolt in Parliament this week

    Can Weak Rishi just call a GE now and get it over with? Nothing is going to turn up, he is done.
    If he has no hope then he will stick around for no reason other than to pray for a miracle.

    Perhaps we should hope he wins at least one of the by-elections, so he thikns there is a chance and goes a bit earlier than he has to.

    As it is I think he may well just manage one of them, though there's a chance he loses every single on - what's the record on number of by-elections lost by a government in a short span?
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @kateferguson4

    Uh oh, more trouble ahead for Rishi Sunak from ANOTHER ex PM.

    Liz Truss teams up with Priti Patel to spearhead Tory tax revolt in Parliament this week

    Can Weak Rishi just call a GE now and get it over with? Nothing is going to turn up, he is done.
    If he has no hope then he will stick around for no reason other than to pray for a miracle.

    Perhaps we should hope he wins at least one of the by-elections, so he thikns there is a chance and goes a bit earlier than he has to.

    As it is I think he may well just manage one of them, though there's a chance he loses every single on - what's the record on number of by-elections lost by a government in a short span?
    Aren't you a Tory voter? Do you honestly think this lot are any good?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,939
    Scott_xP said:

    @kateferguson4

    Uh oh, more trouble ahead for Rishi Sunak from ANOTHER ex PM.

    Liz Truss teams up with Priti Patel to spearhead Tory tax revolt in Parliament this week

    "Liz Truss teams up with Priti Patel"

    Ding dong!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @kateferguson4

    Uh oh, more trouble ahead for Rishi Sunak from ANOTHER ex PM.

    Liz Truss teams up with Priti Patel to spearhead Tory tax revolt in Parliament this week

    Can Weak Rishi just call a GE now and get it over with? Nothing is going to turn up, he is done.
    If he has no hope then he will stick around for no reason other than to pray for a miracle.

    Perhaps we should hope he wins at least one of the by-elections, so he thikns there is a chance and goes a bit earlier than he has to.

    As it is I think he may well just manage one of them, though there's a chance he loses every single on - what's the record on number of by-elections lost by a government in a short span?
    Aren't you a Tory voter? Do you honestly think this lot are any good?
    I have voted Tory on occasion (though only once at a GE), but I generally vote LD, though my votes in 2010 and 2015 were more about hoping for a LD-CON coalition.

    The government is tired, bitterly divided, entirely focused on covering its own back rather than using its majority, and because of its division it has no chance of being bold about any issues. The economic situation is a nightmare, whether that is their fault or not does not matter, and people aren't going to forget that in the next 18 months.

    Whether they swiftly turn on a new government swiftly I do not agree with Casino about - I think we expect governments to be a little crappy, so can accept that, but we have limits.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459

    It's becoming not so much a by-election but a series of bye-bye elections.

    WHICH is WHY we URGENTLY need the PB BY-ELECTION BOTTLE BUS & Traveling Dinner Theatre of the Absurd!!!!
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    Time to drop Bairstow?
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @kateferguson4

    Uh oh, more trouble ahead for Rishi Sunak from ANOTHER ex PM.

    Liz Truss teams up with Priti Patel to spearhead Tory tax revolt in Parliament this week

    Can Weak Rishi just call a GE now and get it over with? Nothing is going to turn up, he is done.
    If he has no hope then he will stick around for no reason other than to pray for a miracle.

    Perhaps we should hope he wins at least one of the by-elections, so he thikns there is a chance and goes a bit earlier than he has to.

    As it is I think he may well just manage one of them, though there's a chance he loses every single on - what's the record on number of by-elections lost by a government in a short span?
    Aren't you a Tory voter? Do you honestly think this lot are any good?
    I have voted Tory on occasion (though only once at a GE), but I generally vote LD, though my votes in 2010 and 2015 were more about hoping for a LD-CON coalition.

    The government is tired, bitterly divided, entirely focused on covering its own back rather than using its majority, and because of its division it has no chance of being bold about any issues. The economic situation is a nightmare, whether that is their fault or not does not matter, and people aren't going to forget that in the next 18 months.

    Whether they swiftly turn on a new government swiftly I do not agree with Casino about - I think we expect governments to be a little crappy, so can accept that, but we have limits.
    But I am the voter Casino thinks will turn on KS, why should I? I'm not as dumb as he thinks I am, this is the same as people saying in 2014 that Labour would come back in, they remembered Labour only 4 years before.

    Perhaps the Tories should ask why I am not voting for them, what do you think?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    edited June 2023
    kle4 said:

    When people are quitting this far out from the potential end of the government, it is hard to avoid the obvious comparisons to rats and sinking ships, even when the reason is distinct as in this latest case.

    Nah, the last 7 days have been relatively quiet on the sinking ship front. In those 7 days we've only had 4 Conservative incumbents announcing that they're standing down from their current seat either immediately or at the general election.

    The previous week there were I think 7 including Johnson and Nad.

    Apologies in advance if I'm maybe one or two out, it is getting a bit hard to keep up.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Members_of_Parliament_not_standing_for_re-election
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    I can confirm that Kentucky is a lot prettier than West Virginia. The countryside is gently idyllic and everything just looks better


  • OldBasingOldBasing Posts: 173

    Time to drop Bairstow?

    Still got your Lab GAIN Basingstoke bet on, Horse? Labour topped the poll in the local election in the wards that make up the parliamentary constituency.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    OldBasing said:

    Time to drop Bairstow?

    Still got your Lab GAIN Basingstoke bet on, Horse? Labour topped the poll in the local election in the wards that make up the parliamentary constituency.
    Hey Old, long time no talk my friend. Yes still got it on, along with Guildford and Winchester. How you keeping, I was down in your neck of the woods a few weeks back
  • OldBasingOldBasing Posts: 173

    OldBasing said:

    Time to drop Bairstow?

    Still got your Lab GAIN Basingstoke bet on, Horse? Labour topped the poll in the local election in the wards that make up the parliamentary constituency.
    Hey Old, long time no talk my friend. Yes still got it on, along with Guildford and Winchester. How you keeping, I was down in your neck of the woods a few weeks back
    Very well thank you. I can see a path to that result now, and the local Lab candidate has already started leafleting, so I think the local party are going for it. But it will be close.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459
    Leon said:

    I can confirm that Kentucky is a lot prettier than West Virginia. The countryside is gently idyllic and everything just looks better


    You are not tooo far from Flatwoods KY, home hamlet of Bill Ray Cyrus, father of Miley Cyrus.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    edited June 2023
    OldBasing said:

    OldBasing said:

    Time to drop Bairstow?

    Still got your Lab GAIN Basingstoke bet on, Horse? Labour topped the poll in the local election in the wards that make up the parliamentary constituency.
    Hey Old, long time no talk my friend. Yes still got it on, along with Guildford and Winchester. How you keeping, I was down in your neck of the woods a few weeks back
    Very well thank you. I can see a path to that result now, and the local Lab candidate has already started leafleting, so I think the local party are going for it. But it will be close.
    We should pop out for a pint down The Crown and put the world to rights!

    I had felt it the result was possible some time ago, it all started at GE2019 when I felt the tide was shifting within Hampshire and Surrey against the Tories. It was JC that prevented the tidal wave but I think now he is gone it has risen ever higher. These people are mostly younger working professionals who have nothing in common with this Tory Party. Along with their mortgages they are deserting the party in droves - they are the ideal Davey/Starmer voter.

    I perceive Labour win by a couple of thousand votes, what say you? Who is the Labour candidate, not sure if I know them?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,980
    It’s probably highly over-simplistic, but my perception in my lifetime has been that economic crises happening under given Governments tend to stick to the Party that was in Government until yanked across to the other Party following an economic crisis under their stewardship.

    The Winter of Discontent plagued Labour until Black Wednesday.
    Black Wednesday hung around the Tories neck until the GFC.
    The GFC has been held against Labour until, well, now-ish.
    If that perception has any basis in fact, then the Tories should be very worried about an economic crisis unfolding under them now.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557

    Leon said:

    I can confirm that Kentucky is a lot prettier than West Virginia. The countryside is gently idyllic and everything just looks better


    You are not tooo far from Flatwoods KY, home hamlet of Bill Ray Cyrus, father of Miley Cyrus.
    Kentucky is still quite a poor state, tho, right? Statista tells me it is in the bottom ten and poorer than Louisiana, which surprises me

    USA wealth stats are bewildering. In Europe they usually make visible sense (Ireland apart). You can generally see them with your own eyes. Switzerland really is that wealthy and so on

    America is more mystifying
  • OldBasingOldBasing Posts: 173

    OldBasing said:

    OldBasing said:

    Time to drop Bairstow?

    Still got your Lab GAIN Basingstoke bet on, Horse? Labour topped the poll in the local election in the wards that make up the parliamentary constituency.
    Hey Old, long time no talk my friend. Yes still got it on, along with Guildford and Winchester. How you keeping, I was down in your neck of the woods a few weeks back
    Very well thank you. I can see a path to that result now, and the local Lab candidate has already started leafleting, so I think the local party are going for it. But it will be close.
    We should pop out for a pint down The Crown and put the world to rights!

    I had felt it the result was possible some time ago, it all started at GE2019 when I felt the tide was shifting within Hampshire and Surrey against the Tories. It was JC that prevented the tidal wave but I think now he is gone it has risen ever higher. These people are mostly younger working professionals who have nothing in common with this Tory Party. Along with their mortgages they are deserting the party in droves - they are the ideal Davey/Starmer voter.

    I perceive Labour win by a couple of thousand votes, what say you? Who is the Labour candidate, not sure if I know them?
    David Lawrence - got a good social media presence.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,980

    It’s probably highly over-simplistic, but my perception in my lifetime has been that economic crises happening under given Governments tend to stick to the Party that was in Government until yanked across to the other Party following an economic crisis under their stewardship.

    The Winter of Discontent plagued Labour until Black Wednesday.
    Black Wednesday hung around the Tories neck until the GFC.
    The GFC has been held against Labour until, well, now-ish.
    If that perception has any basis in fact, then the Tories should be very worried about an economic crisis unfolding under them now.

    Some might argue it goes back further.
    The Three Day week damaged the Tories until the Winter of Discontent.
    Devaluation/ “the pound in your pocket” hurt Labour until the Three Day week.

    Etc.
    Once your reputation for economic credibility is torpedoed, your fate is no longer in your own hands; you have to wait for your opponent to blow themselves up - and the crisis that took you down is rarely sufficient, because they can just continue to blame you for it, and voters will listen.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,005

    Time to drop Bairstow?

    Not yet. His batting is excellent and he took a great catch today.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    Andy_JS said:

    Time to drop Bairstow?

    Not yet. His batting is excellent and he took a great catch today.
    And then dropped two more!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,216

    It’s probably highly over-simplistic, but my perception in my lifetime has been that economic crises happening under given Governments tend to stick to the Party that was in Government until yanked across to the other Party following an economic crisis under their stewardship.

    The Winter of Discontent plagued Labour until Black Wednesday.
    Black Wednesday hung around the Tories neck until the GFC.
    The GFC has been held against Labour until, well, now-ish.
    If that perception has any basis in fact, then the Tories should be very worried about an economic crisis unfolding under them now.

    I think that’s right.

    Of course it’s possible to inherent a mess and fuck it up even more. No free pass for that.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    edited June 2023
    OldBasing said:

    OldBasing said:

    OldBasing said:

    Time to drop Bairstow?

    Still got your Lab GAIN Basingstoke bet on, Horse? Labour topped the poll in the local election in the wards that make up the parliamentary constituency.
    Hey Old, long time no talk my friend. Yes still got it on, along with Guildford and Winchester. How you keeping, I was down in your neck of the woods a few weeks back
    Very well thank you. I can see a path to that result now, and the local Lab candidate has already started leafleting, so I think the local party are going for it. But it will be close.
    We should pop out for a pint down The Crown and put the world to rights!

    I had felt it the result was possible some time ago, it all started at GE2019 when I felt the tide was shifting within Hampshire and Surrey against the Tories. It was JC that prevented the tidal wave but I think now he is gone it has risen ever higher. These people are mostly younger working professionals who have nothing in common with this Tory Party. Along with their mortgages they are deserting the party in droves - they are the ideal Davey/Starmer voter.

    I perceive Labour win by a couple of thousand votes, what say you? Who is the Labour candidate, not sure if I know them?
    David Lawrence - got a good social media presence.
    Don't know him but he's spot on about Baso hospital. I spent many years there under Labour (on and off) and it was excellent, including a complete re-development of the car park which made a big difference to accessibility. It's been left to rot ever since.

    If I was still living in Hants I'd not rate Damian Hinds' chances either.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    edited June 2023
    Baso a good example of tactical candidating by the Lib Dems IMHO. They will field a paper candidate but no real presence. Likewise East Hants Labour will field a paper candidate but leave it open to the Lib Dems
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    Nigelb said:

    It’s probably highly over-simplistic, but my perception in my lifetime has been that economic crises happening under given Governments tend to stick to the Party that was in Government until yanked across to the other Party following an economic crisis under their stewardship.

    The Winter of Discontent plagued Labour until Black Wednesday.
    Black Wednesday hung around the Tories neck until the GFC.
    The GFC has been held against Labour until, well, now-ish.
    If that perception has any basis in fact, then the Tories should be very worried about an economic crisis unfolding under them now.

    I think that’s right.

    Of course it’s possible to inherent a mess and fuck it up even more. No free pass for that.
    The Tories seem to think they can weather it by talking about the last Labour Government, 13 years ago. Whilst this seemed a compelling line in 2015, now people ask "but haven't you had 13 years to do something"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576

    kle4 said:

    When people are quitting this far out from the potential end of the government, it is hard to avoid the obvious comparisons to rats and sinking ships, even when the reason is distinct as in this latest case.

    Nah, the last 7 days have been relatively quiet on the sinking ship front. In those 7 days we've only had 4 Conservative incumbents announcing that they're standing down from their current seat either immediately or at the general election.

    The previous week there were I think 7 including Johnson and Nad.

    Apologies in advance if I'm maybe one or two out, it is getting a bit hard to keep up.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Members_of_Parliament_not_standing_for_re-election
    I wondered if it was notable that that includes 5 of the 2019 intake and 3 of the 2017 intake, all Tories. Add in 9 of the 2015 intake, 5 of them Tory. So 17 so far from the 3 most recent intake elections. That appears to be fairly high (and we're not done yet), but not a record. Just looking at recent elections there have been higher, though of course the period covered by '3 elections' has varied from 8 years as now to 14.

    In 2019 there were 25 standing down from the most recent 3 intake elections (3 from 2017, 3 from 2015, 19 from 2010), but this may have been boosted by Brexit casualties

    In 2017 there were only 10 MPs who stood down from the 3 preceding intakes (3 from 2015, 6 from 2010, and 2 from 2005). That does seen fairly notable as there 28 who stood down in 2015 who entered from 2001/2005/2010)

    At recent elections the total numbers standing down have been

    2023/4: 61 and counting
    2019: 74
    2017:32
    2015: 91
    2010: 149 (a record the page says)

    Sadly earlier ones don't have the data in convenient tables it seems. 2010 seems for obvious reasons (it included 100 Labour MPs), 2015-2019 seems high churn though, and seems like we'd expect quite a few more of the current lot to throw in the towell.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,273

    Nigelb said:

    It’s probably highly over-simplistic, but my perception in my lifetime has been that economic crises happening under given Governments tend to stick to the Party that was in Government until yanked across to the other Party following an economic crisis under their stewardship.

    The Winter of Discontent plagued Labour until Black Wednesday.
    Black Wednesday hung around the Tories neck until the GFC.
    The GFC has been held against Labour until, well, now-ish.
    If that perception has any basis in fact, then the Tories should be very worried about an economic crisis unfolding under them now.

    I think that’s right.

    Of course it’s possible to inherent a mess and fuck it up even more. No free pass for that.
    The Tories seem to think they can weather it by talking about the last Labour Government, 13 years ago. Whilst this seemed a compelling line in 2015, now people ask "but haven't you had 13 years to do something"
    Wasn't there a splendid Daily Mail front page recently castigating Starmer over the influx of boat people?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576

    Nigelb said:

    It’s probably highly over-simplistic, but my perception in my lifetime has been that economic crises happening under given Governments tend to stick to the Party that was in Government until yanked across to the other Party following an economic crisis under their stewardship.

    The Winter of Discontent plagued Labour until Black Wednesday.
    Black Wednesday hung around the Tories neck until the GFC.
    The GFC has been held against Labour until, well, now-ish.
    If that perception has any basis in fact, then the Tories should be very worried about an economic crisis unfolding under them now.

    I think that’s right.

    Of course it’s possible to inherent a mess and fuck it up even more. No free pass for that.
    The Tories seem to think they can weather it by talking about the last Labour Government, 13 years ago. Whilst this seemed a compelling line in 2015, now people ask "but haven't you had 13 years to do something"
    That is part of the reason some of them want to blame the remainiac woke blob establishment or whatever as still holding them up. Problem being that even if someone dislikes those things the rebuttal still applies, and admits incompetence. The desperate last defence, like the "I'm stupid, not crooked" defence of an individual.

    Labour tried it in 2010 too, at least occasionally. Whilst it didn't work, the Tories didn't seal victory outright as we all know. Had the Tories not set fire to their own credibility in 2022 the 'remember the last Labour government' line might well have resulted in the same situation, rather than a Labour majority.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459
    edited June 2023
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I can confirm that Kentucky is a lot prettier than West Virginia. The countryside is gently idyllic and everything just looks better


    You are not tooo far from Flatwoods KY, home hamlet of Bill Ray Cyrus, father of Miley Cyrus.
    Kentucky is still quite a poor state, tho, right? Statista tells me it is in the bottom ten and poorer than Louisiana, which surprises me

    USA wealth stats are bewildering. In Europe they usually make visible sense (Ireland apart). You can generally see them with your own eyes. Switzerland really is that wealthy and so on

    America is more mystifying
    Wealth or otherwise in Kentucky depends in goodly part, on what part of Kentuck' we're talkin'

    > Bluegrass is the traditional center of wealth, power and whatever goodies are going around, has been since shortly after Daniel Boone made the place safe for the younger sons of Virginia gentry - who then ran Dan'l & etc. off the best land.

    > Both Lexington and Louisville ("Louie-ville" or for real locals "L'll'vul") are anchored in the Bluegrass, the former the traditional center, the later the gateway via the Ohio to the wider world; today Lexington keeps drawing in the money while Louisville is more downmarket, similar to Cincinnati, but nevertheless more prosperous than KY average, esp. in the burbs and exurbs; same for the northern KY extension of Cincy.

    > Eastern Kentucky is large chunk of Appalachia, pretty similar to West Virginia on the other side of Big Sandy and the Tug Fork of same. As in "You A'int Leavin' Harlan Alive" and etc; without doubt poorest part of state.

    > Central Kentucky, southwest of Bluegrass, with plenty of the same underlying limestone that makes the BG so lush, but hillier; famous for Mamouth Caves and locale of "Paradise" by John Prine (his parents were Kentucky "briars" who emigrated to outside Chicago, pretty normal); not as poor as Eastern KY but not up to BG level of weath by any means.

    > Western Kentucky, starting say on the lower Ohio River at Paducah ("Pa-DUKE-ah") and continuing down past the mouth of the Cumberland and Tennessee Rivers to the Mighty Mississippi, this part of the state is an extension of the Deep South and the Delta, with more connection to Memphis than Louisville or Lexington; about on par weath-wise with Central KY.

    ADDENDUM - As in WVa, another factor is, how far are you from the main roads (such as they are) as opposed to being way up a holler at the far end of the boondocks?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,250
    edited June 2023
    A man in Kentucky
    Sure is lucky!

    Classic song (“Bowling Green”) by the Everly Brothers, sung live here on the Ed Sullivan show.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DQ4V2rtpz18
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,216

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I can confirm that Kentucky is a lot prettier than West Virginia. The countryside is gently idyllic and everything just looks better


    You are not tooo far from Flatwoods KY, home hamlet of Bill Ray Cyrus, father of Miley Cyrus.
    Kentucky is still quite a poor state, tho, right? Statista tells me it is in the bottom ten and poorer than Louisiana, which surprises me

    USA wealth stats are bewildering. In Europe they usually make visible sense (Ireland apart). You can generally see them with your own eyes. Switzerland really is that wealthy and so on

    America is more mystifying
    Wealth or otherwise in Kentucky depends in goodly part, on what part of Kentuck' we're talkin'

    > Bluegrass is the traditional center of wealth, power and whatever goodies are going around, has been since shortly after Daniel Boone made the place safe for the younger sons of Virginia gentry - who then ran Dan'l & etc. off the best land.

    > Both Lexington and Louisville ("Louie-ville" or for real locals "L'll'vul") are anchored in the Bluegrass, the former the traditional center, the later the gateway via the Ohio to the wider world; today Lexington keeps drawing in the money while Louisville is more downmarket, similar to Cincinnati, but nevertheless more prosperous than KY average, esp. in the burbs and exurbs; same for the northern KY extension of Cincy.

    > Eastern Kentucky is large chunk of Appalachia, pretty similar to West Virginia on the other side of Big Sandy and the Tug Fork of same. As in "You A'int Leavin' Harlan Alive" and etc; without doubt poorest part of state.

    > Central Kentucky, southwest of Bluegrass, with plenty of the same underlying limestone that makes the BG so lush, but hillier; famous for Mamouth Caves and locale of "Paradise" by John Prine (his parents were Kentucky "briars" who emigrated to outside Chicago, pretty normal); not as poor as Eastern KY but not up to BG level of weath by any means.

    > Western Kentucky, starting say on the lower Ohio River at Paducah ("Pa-DUKE-ah") and continuing down past the mouth of the Cumberland and Tennessee Rivers to the Mighty Mississippi, this part of the state is an extension of the Deep South and the Delta, with more connection to Memphis than Louisville or Lexington; about on par weath-wise with Central KY.

    ADDENDUM - As in WVa, another factor is, how far are you from the main roads (such as they are) as opposed to being way up a holler at the far end of the boondocks?
    Did Leon visit this place while in WV ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Greenbrier
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,216
    Not content with defund the police, he’s going for the entire system ?

    Ron DeSantis just suggested getting “rid of the IRS and send it into the sunset.”
    https://twitter.com/natashakorecki/status/1670163673481097216
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    With those who are announced as standing down we'll have no MPs from the 1979 parliament remaining, which might upset some Thatcher nostalgists even though both are Labour MPs. We may still have one from the 1974 parliament if the Father of the House keeps going, but things are looking bad for 1983 and 1987 (already only 3 left for that one).

    We may end up with only around 20 MPs or fewer elected prior to 1997 - especially as some won't hold the seats even if they do stand!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,160
    Laurence Fox
    @LozzaFox
    ·
    1h
    If you are from Somerton and Frome and you want to stand for office. Contact ⁦
    @thereclaimparty
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    Nigelb said:

    Not content with defund the police, he’s going for the entire system ?
    Ron DeSantis just suggested getting “rid of the IRS and send it into the sunset.”
    https://twitter.com/natashakorecki/status/1670163673481097216

    Did they say they like Disney films or something?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I can confirm that Kentucky is a lot prettier than West Virginia. The countryside is gently idyllic and everything just looks better


    You are not tooo far from Flatwoods KY, home hamlet of Bill Ray Cyrus, father of Miley Cyrus.
    Kentucky is still quite a poor state, tho, right? Statista tells me it is in the bottom ten and poorer than Louisiana, which surprises me

    USA wealth stats are bewildering. In Europe they usually make visible sense (Ireland apart). You can generally see them with your own eyes. Switzerland really is that wealthy and so on

    America is more mystifying
    Wealth or otherwise in Kentucky depends in goodly part, on what part of Kentuck' we're talkin'

    > Bluegrass is the traditional center of wealth, power and whatever goodies are going around, has been since shortly after Daniel Boone made the place safe for the younger sons of Virginia gentry - who then ran Dan'l & etc. off the best land.

    > Both Lexington and Louisville ("Louie-ville" or for real locals "L'll'vul") are anchored in the Bluegrass, the former the traditional center, the later the gateway via the Ohio to the wider world; today Lexington keeps drawing in the money while Louisville is more downmarket, similar to Cincinnati, but nevertheless more prosperous than KY average, esp. in the burbs and exurbs; same for the northern KY extension of Cincy.

    > Eastern Kentucky is large chunk of Appalachia, pretty similar to West Virginia on the other side of Big Sandy and the Tug Fork of same. As in "You A'int Leavin' Harlan Alive" and etc; without doubt poorest part of state.

    > Central Kentucky, southwest of Bluegrass, with plenty of the same underlying limestone that makes the BG so lush, but hillier; famous for Mamouth Caves and locale of "Paradise" by John Prine (his parents were Kentucky "briars" who emigrated to outside Chicago, pretty normal); not as poor as Eastern KY but not up to BG level of weath by any means.

    > Western Kentucky, starting say on the lower Ohio River at Paducah ("Pa-DUKE-ah") and continuing down past the mouth of the Cumberland and Tennessee Rivers to the Mighty Mississippi, this part of the state is an extension of the Deep South and the Delta, with more connection to Memphis than Louisville or Lexington; about on par weath-wise with Central KY.

    ADDENDUM - As in WVa, another factor is, how far are you from the main roads (such as they are) as opposed to being way up a holler at the far end of the boondocks?
    Did Leon visit this place while in WV ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Greenbrier
    Was one of my travel tips!

    I've been there. It's a massive, old-school resort in beautiful mountain valley setting. Was one of the traditional spas of the Southern gentry, esp. in first half of 20th century. Survived mainly due to relative proximity (but not TOO proximite) to Washington DC.

    Which is why it was chosen as site of massive secret underground bunker built during Cold War, and now an attraction.

    Wasn't open yet when I stopped by near lunchtime, so I had a nice but expensive salad instead. On my way back to my car, stopped in a very nice restroom to pay my respects.

    Took a roll of extra-thick, top-grade, monogrammed toilet paper, embossed "The Greenbrier" as my souvenir.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    Nigelb said:

    Not content with defund the police, he’s going for the entire system ?

    Ron DeSantis just suggested getting “rid of the IRS and send it into the sunset.”
    https://twitter.com/natashakorecki/status/1670163673481097216


    Biggest response to DeSantis so far is his saying he would build a border wall — and get it done.


    If you want to do a 'I will be Trump, but effective' approach Ron (which on paper seems like a winner with the audience) you will still have to side with the marxist wokesters to defeat Trump at some point, which may upset the same people.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I can confirm that Kentucky is a lot prettier than West Virginia. The countryside is gently idyllic and everything just looks better


    You are not tooo far from Flatwoods KY, home hamlet of Bill Ray Cyrus, father of Miley Cyrus.
    Kentucky is still quite a poor state, tho, right? Statista tells me it is in the bottom ten and poorer than Louisiana, which surprises me

    USA wealth stats are bewildering. In Europe they usually make visible sense (Ireland apart). You can generally see them with your own eyes. Switzerland really is that wealthy and so on

    America is more mystifying
    America is just a lot more wealthy than Europe. Alabama is higher GDP per capita than Germany I believe. It is just a lot more unequal, so the poor are in a lot worse poverty but the upper middle class is a lot bigger and wealthier. There are lots of suburbs in every state with a lot of people in 5,000 square foot houses, pools in the back yard, and they eat out three times a week.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not content with defund the police, he’s going for the entire system ?
    Ron DeSantis just suggested getting “rid of the IRS and send it into the sunset.”
    https://twitter.com/natashakorecki/status/1670163673481097216

    Did they say they like Disney films or something?
    No, but the GOP base is notoriously ANTI-TAX.

    Yet again, DeSantis is engaged in outflanking Trump on the farther-right.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459

    Laurence Fox
    @LozzaFox
    ·
    1h
    If you are from Somerton and Frome and you want to stand for office. Contact ⁦
    @thereclaimparty

    What's stopping (anti-) Fox(y) from running himself?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not content with defund the police, he’s going for the entire system ?

    Ron DeSantis just suggested getting “rid of the IRS and send it into the sunset.”
    https://twitter.com/natashakorecki/status/1670163673481097216


    Biggest response to DeSantis so far is his saying he would build a border wall — and get it done.


    If you want to do a 'I will be Trump, but effective' approach Ron (which on paper seems like a winner with the audience) you will still have to side with the marxist wokesters to defeat Trump at some point, which may upset the same people.
    RdS is saying that DJT has double whammy of EDx2 = effectiveness AND electoral dysfunction.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not content with defund the police, he’s going for the entire system ?

    Ron DeSantis just suggested getting “rid of the IRS and send it into the sunset.”
    https://twitter.com/natashakorecki/status/1670163673481097216


    Biggest response to DeSantis so far is his saying he would build a border wall — and get it done.


    If you want to do a 'I will be Trump, but effective' approach Ron (which on paper seems like a winner with the audience) you will still have to side with the marxist wokesters to defeat Trump at some point, which may upset the same people.
    RdS is saying that DJT has double whammy of EDx2 = effectiveness AND electoral dysfunction.
    Addendum: Old wack-job can't get it up; young wack-job can!
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,670

    Laurence Fox
    @LozzaFox
    ·
    1h
    If you are from Somerton and Frome and you want to stand for office. Contact ⁦
    @thereclaimparty

    What's stopping (anti-) Fox(y) from running himself?
    I think he's "standing" in Boris's seat. Because he like losing, or something. Probably the lizard people or 5G influencing things.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,005

    Nigelb said:

    It’s probably highly over-simplistic, but my perception in my lifetime has been that economic crises happening under given Governments tend to stick to the Party that was in Government until yanked across to the other Party following an economic crisis under their stewardship.

    The Winter of Discontent plagued Labour until Black Wednesday.
    Black Wednesday hung around the Tories neck until the GFC.
    The GFC has been held against Labour until, well, now-ish.
    If that perception has any basis in fact, then the Tories should be very worried about an economic crisis unfolding under them now.

    I think that’s right.

    Of course it’s possible to inherent a mess and fuck it up even more. No free pass for that.
    The Tories seem to think they can weather it by talking about the last Labour Government, 13 years ago. Whilst this seemed a compelling line in 2015, now people ask "but haven't you had 13 years to do something"
    That tactic actually worked in 1992. But maybe 13 years then is viewed differently to 13 years today.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    When people are quitting this far out from the potential end of the government, it is hard to avoid the obvious comparisons to rats and sinking ships, even when the reason is distinct as in this latest case.

    Nah, the last 7 days have been relatively quiet on the sinking ship front. In those 7 days we've only had 4 Conservative incumbents announcing that they're standing down from their current seat either immediately or at the general election.

    The previous week there were I think 7 including Johnson and Nad.

    Apologies in advance if I'm maybe one or two out, it is getting a bit hard to keep up.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Members_of_Parliament_not_standing_for_re-election
    I wondered if it was notable that that includes 5 of the 2019 intake and 3 of the 2017 intake, all Tories. Add in 9 of the 2015 intake, 5 of them Tory. So 17 so far from the 3 most recent intake elections. That appears to be fairly high (and we're not done yet), but not a record. Just looking at recent elections there have been higher, though of course the period covered by '3 elections' has varied from 8 years as now to 14.

    In 2019 there were 25 standing down from the most recent 3 intake elections (3 from 2017, 3 from 2015, 19 from 2010), but this may have been boosted by Brexit casualties

    In 2017 there were only 10 MPs who stood down from the 3 preceding intakes (3 from 2015, 6 from 2010, and 2 from 2005). That does seen fairly notable as there 28 who stood down in 2015 who entered from 2001/2005/2010)

    At recent elections the total numbers standing down have been

    2023/4: 61 and counting
    2019: 74
    2017:32
    2015: 91
    2010: 149 (a record the page says)

    Sadly earlier ones don't have the data in convenient tables it seems. 2010 seems for obvious reasons (it included 100 Labour MPs), 2015-2019 seems high churn though, and seems like we'd expect quite a few more of the current lot to throw in the towell.
    The current 61 is a bit of an underestimate because it doesn't include those who have been deselected but who are still keeping their options open.

    The timing is also relevant - taking the last full term parliament as a benchmark, about 45% of those who stood down in 2015 only announced their decision within a year of the end of the parliament.

    So there must be a lot still to come and we'll surely be well over 2015 totals by 2024.

    What is also notable is how high is the proportion of Conservative MPs within the overall total - about 70% if you include all those elected as Conservatives but now sitting as Independents.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,005
    "Nadine Dorries: ‘I’m actually smarter than these guys in No 10’ "

    https://www.ft.com/content/4f3d3cb2-2a28-4df5-a650-2b4c4c8b0698
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    edited June 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    Nigelb said:

    It’s probably highly over-simplistic, but my perception in my lifetime has been that economic crises happening under given Governments tend to stick to the Party that was in Government until yanked across to the other Party following an economic crisis under their stewardship.

    The Winter of Discontent plagued Labour until Black Wednesday.
    Black Wednesday hung around the Tories neck until the GFC.
    The GFC has been held against Labour until, well, now-ish.
    If that perception has any basis in fact, then the Tories should be very worried about an economic crisis unfolding under them now.

    I think that’s right.

    Of course it’s possible to inherent a mess and fuck it up even more. No free pass for that.
    The Tories seem to think they can weather it by talking about the last Labour Government, 13 years ago. Whilst this seemed a compelling line in 2015, now people ask "but haven't you had 13 years to do something"
    That tactic actually worked in 1992. But maybe 13 years then is viewed differently to 13 years today.
    In 1992, deposing a sitting Conservative PM was still a new party trick that heralded change. But in the last 13 years we've been through 5 PMs and the promises of a new start each time have worn very thin.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,250
    edited June 2023
    I’m increasing my best guess of the Labour majority to 50.

    Was 25.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,381

    I’m increasing my best guess of the Labour majority to 50.

    Was 25.

    Nah, there's still enough old people who are in a Daily Mail induced nightmare about woke and who are unaffected by the interest rate increases and cost of living, who vote in large numbers, to avoid that scenario I think.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459
    by the Pride of Butcher Holler, Kentucky

    Coal Miner's Daughter - Loretta Lynn
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pM84OekHtAQ
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,239
    edited June 2023
    kle4 said:

    With those who are announced as standing down we'll have no MPs from the 1979 parliament remaining, which might upset some Thatcher nostalgists even though both are Labour MPs. We may still have one from the 1974 parliament if the Father of the House keeps going, but things are looking bad for 1983 and 1987 (already only 3 left for that one).

    We may end up with only around 20 MPs or fewer elected prior to 1997 - especially as some won't hold the seats even if they do stand!

    Yes, we've lost Barry Sheerman from Huddersfield, standing down at the next GE. The 2019 GE contest featured a battle between the 79 year old Sheerman and his Conservative challenger, the 78 year old Ken Davy (the ex Giants owner).

    It almost felt like voting in a US presidential election.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179
    NATIONAL POLL: Harvard/Harris

    PRES:
    (R) Trump: 45% (+6)
    (D) Biden: 39%

    (R) DeSantis: 41% (+1)
    (D) Biden: 40%
    .
    GOP PRES:
    • Trump — 59% (+45)
    • DeSantis — 14%
    • Pence — 8%
    • Haley — 4%
    • Ramaswamy — 3%
    • Scott — 2%
    • Christie — 2%

    Harris (B) | 06/14-15 | 2,090 RV

    https://twitter.com/iapolls2022/status/1669814125319401475
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,993

    Casino seems to think I will start voting Tory within 18 months. Not long enough. 5 years and we can talk.

    Don't do it!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I can confirm that Kentucky is a lot prettier than West Virginia. The countryside is gently idyllic and everything just looks better


    You are not tooo far from Flatwoods KY, home hamlet of Bill Ray Cyrus, father of Miley Cyrus.
    Kentucky is still quite a poor state, tho, right? Statista tells me it is in the bottom ten and poorer than Louisiana, which surprises me

    USA wealth stats are bewildering. In Europe they usually make visible sense (Ireland apart). You can generally see them with your own eyes. Switzerland really is that wealthy and so on

    America is more mystifying
    I'm in New England, and New Hampshire (generally) feels pretty rich. Maine, by contrast, felt much poorer.

    Vermont seemed very quiet and incredibly rural. Not poor, no obvious homelessness or drug issues. But not a lot to do.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,320
    Lesson here is.
    Don't get caught in a sex or drugs scandal. Go for broke!
    Attaboy!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,320

    Laurence Fox
    @LozzaFox
    ·
    1h
    If you are from Somerton and Frome and you want to stand for office. Contact ⁦
    @thereclaimparty

    What's stopping (anti-) Fox(y) from running himself?
    The humiliation?
    Just a tentative guess.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,320
    Andy_JS said:

    "Nadine Dorries: ‘I’m actually smarter than these guys in No 10’ "

    https://www.ft.com/content/4f3d3cb2-2a28-4df5-a650-2b4c4c8b0698

    The really sad part is that she probably is.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,646
    Leon said:

    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I can confirm that Kentucky is a lot prettier than West Virginia. The countryside is gently idyllic and everything just looks better


    You are not tooo far from Flatwoods KY, home hamlet of Bill Ray Cyrus, father of Miley Cyrus.
    Kentucky is still quite a poor state, tho, right? Statista tells me it is in the bottom ten and poorer than Louisiana, which surprises me

    USA wealth stats are bewildering. In Europe they usually make visible sense (Ireland apart). You can generally see them with your own eyes. Switzerland really is that wealthy and so on

    America is more mystifying
    America is just a lot more wealthy than Europe. Alabama is higher GDP per capita than Germany I believe. It is just a lot more unequal, so the poor are in a lot worse poverty but the upper middle class is a lot bigger and wealthier. There are lots of suburbs in every state with a lot of people in 5,000 square foot houses, pools in the back yard, and they eat out three times a week.
    I do not believe America is a lot wealthier than Europe, not after all my travels these last two years

    It has an extremely wealthy super elite, which puts all the stats out of whack

    Eg the idea Alabama has a higher GDP per cap than Germany is simply laughable; it might be technically true in some perverse narrow weird freak show geeky statistically anomalous way but by any sensible means of measuring wealth, income, life quality, life expectancy, outcome, hideousness of small towns, chances of being shot, chances of being ruined by healthcare costs, life in Alabama is way way way worse than life in Germany, and in any sane world of measurement: a lot poorer
    It's almost like the convo I had with you a few weeks ago how the Americans regret using GDP as the statistic during the Afghan occupation, and believe they should have used household income instead.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I can confirm that Kentucky is a lot prettier than West Virginia. The countryside is gently idyllic and everything just looks better


    You are not tooo far from Flatwoods KY, home hamlet of Bill Ray Cyrus, father of Miley Cyrus.
    Kentucky is still quite a poor state, tho, right? Statista tells me it is in the bottom ten and poorer than Louisiana, which surprises me

    USA wealth stats are bewildering. In Europe they usually make visible sense (Ireland apart). You can generally see them with your own eyes. Switzerland really is that wealthy and so on

    America is more mystifying
    Wealth or otherwise in Kentucky depends in goodly part, on what part of Kentuck' we're talkin'

    > Bluegrass is the traditional center of wealth, power and whatever goodies are going around, has been since shortly after Daniel Boone made the place safe for the younger sons of Virginia gentry - who then ran Dan'l & etc. off the best land.

    > Both Lexington and Louisville ("Louie-ville" or for real locals "L'll'vul") are anchored in the Bluegrass, the former the traditional center, the later the gateway via the Ohio to the wider world; today Lexington keeps drawing in the money while Louisville is more downmarket, similar to Cincinnati, but nevertheless more prosperous than KY average, esp. in the burbs and exurbs; same for the northern KY extension of Cincy.

    > Eastern Kentucky is large chunk of Appalachia, pretty similar to West Virginia on the other side of Big Sandy and the Tug Fork of same. As in "You A'int Leavin' Harlan Alive" and etc; without doubt poorest part of state.

    > Central Kentucky, southwest of Bluegrass, with plenty of the same underlying limestone that makes the BG so lush, but hillier; famous for Mamouth Caves and locale of "Paradise" by John Prine (his parents were Kentucky "briars" who emigrated to outside Chicago, pretty normal); not as poor as Eastern KY but not up to BG level of weath by any means.

    > Western Kentucky, starting say on the lower Ohio River at Paducah ("Pa-DUKE-ah") and continuing down past the mouth of the Cumberland and Tennessee Rivers to the Mighty Mississippi, this part of the state is an extension of the Deep South and the Delta, with more connection to Memphis than Louisville or Lexington; about on par weath-wise with Central KY.

    ADDENDUM - As in WVa, another factor is, how far are you from the main roads (such as they are) as opposed to being way up a holler at the far end of the boondocks?
    Did Leon visit this place while in WV ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Greenbrier
    Was one of my travel tips!

    I've been there. It's a massive, old-school resort in beautiful mountain valley setting. Was one of the traditional spas of the Southern gentry, esp. in first half of 20th century. Survived mainly due to relative proximity (but not TOO proximite) to Washington DC.

    Which is why it was chosen as site of massive secret underground bunker built during Cold War, and now an attraction.

    Wasn't open yet when I stopped by near lunchtime, so I had a nice but expensive salad instead. On my way back to my car, stopped in a very nice restroom to pay my respects.

    Took a roll of extra-thick, top-grade, monogrammed toilet paper, embossed "The Greenbrier" as my souvenir.
    Dammit, I missed that

    Mind you I preferred staying in my slave pit-stop turned into Confederacy prison turned into Nazi eugenic and sterilisation centre turned into posh hotel that can’t charge too much because everyone is freaked by the ghosts and the history

    THAT is a story for the Gazette
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    On US GDP per capita by state, these numbers look pretty plausible to me: https://www.statista.com/statistics/248063/per-capita-us-real-gross-domestic-product-gdp-by-state/

    Mississippi is bottom at about $35k, with Alabama on $41k.

    The UK, by contrast, is $46k
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,250
    edited June 2023
    Here’s a recent-ish paper which tries to account for the value of public services in Europe when comparing income.

    http://klenow.com/Jones_Klenow.pdf

    Rather than looking like 60 percent of the US value, as it does based solely on consumption, France ends up with consumption-equivalent welfare equal to 92 percent of that in the United States.

    UK was even higher, at 97%.

    Published in 2016 so data will be a bit old.
    But going back to Alabama, and allowing for the greater inequality in the USA, it’s not at all credible that Alabama is wealthier than Germany.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690

    Here’s a recent-ish paper which tries to account for the value of public services in Europe when comparing income.

    http://klenow.com/Jones_Klenow.pdf

    Rather than looking like 60 percent of the US value, as it does based solely on consumption, France ends up with consumption-equivalent welfare equal to 92 percent of that in the United States.

    UK was even higher, at 97%.

    Published in 2016 so data will be a bit old.
    But going back to Alabama, and allowing for the greater inequality in the USA, it’s not at all credible that Alabama is wealthier than Germany.

    Birmingham is actually a reasonably booming city. But the rest of the state is absolutely dirt poor.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    rcs1000 said:

    On US GDP per capita by state, these numbers look pretty plausible to me: https://www.statista.com/statistics/248063/per-capita-us-real-gross-domestic-product-gdp-by-state/

    Mississippi is bottom at about $35k, with Alabama on $41k.

    The UK, by contrast, is $46k

    That makes more sense. That is the lived experience!

    America gets the sunshine tho. But they also get the storms and the crime and the opioids
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    Andy_JS said:

    "Nadine Dorries: ‘I’m actually smarter than these guys in No 10’ "

    https://www.ft.com/content/4f3d3cb2-2a28-4df5-a650-2b4c4c8b0698

    Not impossible, but intellect in a political leader is surely subordinate to judgement.

    They may not be world beaters there either, but they probably know 'Wah, I didn't get the prize Big Boris promised me!' is not a sympathy grabber.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I can confirm that Kentucky is a lot prettier than West Virginia. The countryside is gently idyllic and everything just looks better


    You are not tooo far from Flatwoods KY, home hamlet of Bill Ray Cyrus, father of Miley Cyrus.
    Kentucky is still quite a poor state, tho, right? Statista tells me it is in the bottom ten and poorer than Louisiana, which surprises me

    USA wealth stats are bewildering. In Europe they usually make visible sense (Ireland apart). You can generally see them with your own eyes. Switzerland really is that wealthy and so on

    America is more mystifying
    I'm in New England, and New Hampshire (generally) feels pretty rich. Maine, by contrast, felt much poorer.

    Vermont seemed very quiet and incredibly rural. Not poor, no obvious homelessness or drug issues. But not a lot to do.
    Rural America is REALLY boring, especially outside the South or away from anywhere with Civil War/Revolution history

    There’s nothing to see. You can drive for 200 miles and there might be a Museum of the American Thimble, and perhaps a well preserved 1930s Exxon garage

    Drive for 200 miles in Britain, France and Italy and you will pass 13 cathedrals, 218 castles, 1,927 medieval churches, a Stone Age ritual circle on ten, 63 towns founded by Romans, 143 ghost villages destroyed by the Black Death, and all the crowded hassles and issues that come with that density of history and settlement

    Chacon a son gout
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459
    rcs1000 said:

    Here’s a recent-ish paper which tries to account for the value of public services in Europe when comparing income.

    http://klenow.com/Jones_Klenow.pdf

    Rather than looking like 60 percent of the US value, as it does based solely on consumption, France ends up with consumption-equivalent welfare equal to 92 percent of that in the United States.

    UK was even higher, at 97%.

    Published in 2016 so data will be a bit old.
    But going back to Alabama, and allowing for the greater inequality in the USA, it’s not at all credible that Alabama is wealthier than Germany.

    Birmingham is actually a reasonably booming city. But the rest of the state is absolutely dirt poor.
    Huntsville certainly is NOT. Betya its got better numbers than B'min'h'm as many locals call it.

    Same for Tuscaloosa. Mobile is less, but more than muddy (which it is). Dauphin Island and some other Gulf Coast places retirement destinations.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I can confirm that Kentucky is a lot prettier than West Virginia. The countryside is gently idyllic and everything just looks better


    You are not tooo far from Flatwoods KY, home hamlet of Bill Ray Cyrus, father of Miley Cyrus.
    Kentucky is still quite a poor state, tho, right? Statista tells me it is in the bottom ten and poorer than Louisiana, which surprises me

    USA wealth stats are bewildering. In Europe they usually make visible sense (Ireland apart). You can generally see them with your own eyes. Switzerland really is that wealthy and so on

    America is more mystifying
    I'm in New England, and New Hampshire (generally) feels pretty rich. Maine, by contrast, felt much poorer.

    Vermont seemed very quiet and incredibly rural. Not poor, no obvious homelessness or drug issues. But not a lot to do.
    Rural America is REALLY boring, especially outside the South or away from anywhere with Civil War/Revolution history

    There’s nothing to see. You can drive for 200 miles and there might be a Museum of the American Thimble, and perhaps a well preserved 1930s Exxon garage

    Drive for 200 miles in Britain, France and Italy and you will pass 13 cathedrals, 218 castles, 1,927 medieval churches, a Stone Age ritual circle on ten, 63 towns founded by Romans, 143 ghost villages destroyed by the Black Death, and all the crowded hassles and issues that come with that density of history and settlement

    Chacon a son gout
    Next time, take a river boat! Bring your gambler hat and dough and learn how to play poker on the pay-as-you-go-broke plan.

    Ohio is great cruising (wholesome or otherwise) river. So is the Upper MIssisissippi.

    The late, great John Hartford used to pilot a boat for fun on the Illinois River, wrote great songs about the rivers; before he hit it big as a songwriter, he worked as a bargeman on the Mississippi & etc.

    Julia Belle Swain - John Hartford
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VH8qObPiX04

    "Darker than the inside of a cow"!


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