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Another tricky by-election defence for the Tories – politicalbetting.com
Another tricky by-election defence for the Tories – politicalbetting.com
Source:https://t.co/ch1aGdfoNd
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Another tricky by-election defence for the Tories – politicalbetting.com
Source:https://t.co/ch1aGdfoNd
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🔵 A Conservative KC in the running to be the party’s nominee for London mayor has revealed he is a “passionate Remainer”
https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1670168778624122880
I say this because every company I've worked for has it, HR cases and gross misconduct, but they're normally silently crowbarred out with NDAs and of course it feels far higher in politics because they get such publicity.
But we must have had 25-35 cases of dodgy MPs across all parties over the last 3 years and that's pushing 5%.
There's Green strength around Frome for example and Wincanton & Bruton remained Conservative even as the LDs were winning control of Somerset Council in 2022.
Somerset absorbed Mendip, Sedgemoor, South Somerset and Somerset West & Taunton and became a Unitary on April 1st.
Compared to the mountains scaled in this Parliament, however, it's fair to say the 14.8% swing required by the LD should be achievable and doubtless the party will strain every sinew to make it happen even if it's also working Mid Bedfordshire and Selby & Ainsty hard.
"The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
⚡ Kremlin spokesman claims Ukraine largely 'demilitarized'.
Kremlin press secretary Dmitriy Peskov claimed that Russia's goal of "demilitarizing" Ukraine was largely completed, saying that it was using "fewer and fewer of its own weapons" and increasingly relying on weapons provided by the West."
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1670168560700735489
Would be one way to end the war before the Russian army completely disintegrates.
But the whole thing has been bizarre.
It might not lead to his overthrow by the people, but I can imagine manoeuvres in the Kremlin would intensify.
I know the Tories hate me but I am a house owner.
Okay xx bye
So it makes perfect sense he's been removed from the Tory Party.
So I wonder if the average Russian would, in fact, be releatively happy with the pre-2022 line, or just slightly expanded - even if they hope for far more.
Of course, we all hope Ukraine can get far beyond that - not least since there will be no safety until Russia believes it cannot try again.
And we’re supposed to have faith in what Simon Case has to say !
The former Director brought receipts and like any good lawyer, buried Johnson with his own words.
Keir Starmer has played a very slow but precise game.
Uh oh, more trouble ahead for Rishi Sunak from ANOTHER ex PM.
Liz Truss teams up with Priti Patel to spearhead Tory tax revolt in Parliament this week
If there were any proper coordination in play, I would now expect the LDs to focus on Somerton and (in time) Mid Beds while Labour focused on Uxbridge and Selby. Two each.
John Grogan held Selby for Labour for a decade prior to 2010, albeit on old boundaries slightly more favourable to Labour, so they will give that one a decent go, even if it's still a long shot.
Perhaps we should hope he wins at least one of the by-elections, so he thikns there is a chance and goes a bit earlier than he has to.
As it is I think he may well just manage one of them, though there's a chance he loses every single on - what's the record on number of by-elections lost by a government in a short span?
Ding dong!
The government is tired, bitterly divided, entirely focused on covering its own back rather than using its majority, and because of its division it has no chance of being bold about any issues. The economic situation is a nightmare, whether that is their fault or not does not matter, and people aren't going to forget that in the next 18 months.
Whether they swiftly turn on a new government swiftly I do not agree with Casino about - I think we expect governments to be a little crappy, so can accept that, but we have limits.
Perhaps the Tories should ask why I am not voting for them, what do you think?
The previous week there were I think 7 including Johnson and Nad.
Apologies in advance if I'm maybe one or two out, it is getting a bit hard to keep up.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Members_of_Parliament_not_standing_for_re-election
I had felt it the result was possible some time ago, it all started at GE2019 when I felt the tide was shifting within Hampshire and Surrey against the Tories. It was JC that prevented the tidal wave but I think now he is gone it has risen ever higher. These people are mostly younger working professionals who have nothing in common with this Tory Party. Along with their mortgages they are deserting the party in droves - they are the ideal Davey/Starmer voter.
I perceive Labour win by a couple of thousand votes, what say you? Who is the Labour candidate, not sure if I know them?
The Winter of Discontent plagued Labour until Black Wednesday.
Black Wednesday hung around the Tories neck until the GFC.
The GFC has been held against Labour until, well, now-ish.
If that perception has any basis in fact, then the Tories should be very worried about an economic crisis unfolding under them now.
USA wealth stats are bewildering. In Europe they usually make visible sense (Ireland apart). You can generally see them with your own eyes. Switzerland really is that wealthy and so on
America is more mystifying
The Three Day week damaged the Tories until the Winter of Discontent.
Devaluation/ “the pound in your pocket” hurt Labour until the Three Day week.
Etc.
Once your reputation for economic credibility is torpedoed, your fate is no longer in your own hands; you have to wait for your opponent to blow themselves up - and the crisis that took you down is rarely sufficient, because they can just continue to blame you for it, and voters will listen.
Of course it’s possible to inherent a mess and fuck it up even more. No free pass for that.
If I was still living in Hants I'd not rate Damian Hinds' chances either.
In 2019 there were 25 standing down from the most recent 3 intake elections (3 from 2017, 3 from 2015, 19 from 2010), but this may have been boosted by Brexit casualties
In 2017 there were only 10 MPs who stood down from the 3 preceding intakes (3 from 2015, 6 from 2010, and 2 from 2005). That does seen fairly notable as there 28 who stood down in 2015 who entered from 2001/2005/2010)
At recent elections the total numbers standing down have been
2023/4: 61 and counting
2019: 74
2017:32
2015: 91
2010: 149 (a record the page says)
Sadly earlier ones don't have the data in convenient tables it seems. 2010 seems for obvious reasons (it included 100 Labour MPs), 2015-2019 seems high churn though, and seems like we'd expect quite a few more of the current lot to throw in the towell.
Labour tried it in 2010 too, at least occasionally. Whilst it didn't work, the Tories didn't seal victory outright as we all know. Had the Tories not set fire to their own credibility in 2022 the 'remember the last Labour government' line might well have resulted in the same situation, rather than a Labour majority.
> Bluegrass is the traditional center of wealth, power and whatever goodies are going around, has been since shortly after Daniel Boone made the place safe for the younger sons of Virginia gentry - who then ran Dan'l & etc. off the best land.
> Both Lexington and Louisville ("Louie-ville" or for real locals "L'll'vul") are anchored in the Bluegrass, the former the traditional center, the later the gateway via the Ohio to the wider world; today Lexington keeps drawing in the money while Louisville is more downmarket, similar to Cincinnati, but nevertheless more prosperous than KY average, esp. in the burbs and exurbs; same for the northern KY extension of Cincy.
> Eastern Kentucky is large chunk of Appalachia, pretty similar to West Virginia on the other side of Big Sandy and the Tug Fork of same. As in "You A'int Leavin' Harlan Alive" and etc; without doubt poorest part of state.
> Central Kentucky, southwest of Bluegrass, with plenty of the same underlying limestone that makes the BG so lush, but hillier; famous for Mamouth Caves and locale of "Paradise" by John Prine (his parents were Kentucky "briars" who emigrated to outside Chicago, pretty normal); not as poor as Eastern KY but not up to BG level of weath by any means.
> Western Kentucky, starting say on the lower Ohio River at Paducah ("Pa-DUKE-ah") and continuing down past the mouth of the Cumberland and Tennessee Rivers to the Mighty Mississippi, this part of the state is an extension of the Deep South and the Delta, with more connection to Memphis than Louisville or Lexington; about on par weath-wise with Central KY.
ADDENDUM - As in WVa, another factor is, how far are you from the main roads (such as they are) as opposed to being way up a holler at the far end of the boondocks?
Sure is lucky!
Classic song (“Bowling Green”) by the Everly Brothers, sung live here on the Ed Sullivan show.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DQ4V2rtpz18
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Greenbrier
Ron DeSantis just suggested getting “rid of the IRS and send it into the sunset.”
https://twitter.com/natashakorecki/status/1670163673481097216
EDIT I mean that's the selection bias on even standing to be one.
We may end up with only around 20 MPs or fewer elected prior to 1997 - especially as some won't hold the seats even if they do stand!
@LozzaFox
·
1h
If you are from Somerton and Frome and you want to stand for office. Contact
@thereclaimparty
I've been there. It's a massive, old-school resort in beautiful mountain valley setting. Was one of the traditional spas of the Southern gentry, esp. in first half of 20th century. Survived mainly due to relative proximity (but not TOO proximite) to Washington DC.
Which is why it was chosen as site of massive secret underground bunker built during Cold War, and now an attraction.
Wasn't open yet when I stopped by near lunchtime, so I had a nice but expensive salad instead. On my way back to my car, stopped in a very nice restroom to pay my respects.
Took a roll of extra-thick, top-grade, monogrammed toilet paper, embossed "The Greenbrier" as my souvenir.
Biggest response to DeSantis so far is his saying he would build a border wall — and get it done.
If you want to do a 'I will be Trump, but effective' approach Ron (which on paper seems like a winner with the audience) you will still have to side with the marxist wokesters to defeat Trump at some point, which may upset the same people.
Yet again, DeSantis is engaged in outflanking Trump on the farther-right.
The timing is also relevant - taking the last full term parliament as a benchmark, about 45% of those who stood down in 2015 only announced their decision within a year of the end of the parliament.
So there must be a lot still to come and we'll surely be well over 2015 totals by 2024.
What is also notable is how high is the proportion of Conservative MPs within the overall total - about 70% if you include all those elected as Conservatives but now sitting as Independents.
https://www.ft.com/content/4f3d3cb2-2a28-4df5-a650-2b4c4c8b0698
Was 25.
Coal Miner's Daughter - Loretta Lynn
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pM84OekHtAQ
It almost felt like voting in a US presidential election.
PRES:
(R) Trump: 45% (+6)
(D) Biden: 39%
(R) DeSantis: 41% (+1)
(D) Biden: 40%
.
GOP PRES:
• Trump — 59% (+45)
• DeSantis — 14%
• Pence — 8%
• Haley — 4%
• Ramaswamy — 3%
• Scott — 2%
• Christie — 2%
Harris (B) | 06/14-15 | 2,090 RV
https://twitter.com/iapolls2022/status/1669814125319401475
Vermont seemed very quiet and incredibly rural. Not poor, no obvious homelessness or drug issues. But not a lot to do.
Don't get caught in a sex or drugs scandal. Go for broke!
Attaboy!
Just a tentative guess.
It has an extremely wealthy super elite, which puts all the stats out of whack
Eg the idea Alabama has a higher GDP per cap than Germany is simply laughable; it might be technically true in some perverse narrow weird freak show geeky statistically anomalous way but by any sensible means of measuring wealth, income, life quality, life expectancy, outcome, hideousness of small towns, chances of being shot, chances of being ruined by healthcare costs, life in Alabama is way way way worse than life in Germany, and in any sane world of measurement: a lot poorer
Mind you I preferred staying in my slave pit-stop turned into Confederacy prison turned into Nazi eugenic and sterilisation centre turned into posh hotel that can’t charge too much because everyone is freaked by the ghosts and the history
THAT is a story for the Gazette
Mississippi is bottom at about $35k, with Alabama on $41k.
The UK, by contrast, is $46k
http://klenow.com/Jones_Klenow.pdf
Rather than looking like 60 percent of the US value, as it does based solely on consumption, France ends up with consumption-equivalent welfare equal to 92 percent of that in the United States.
UK was even higher, at 97%.
Published in 2016 so data will be a bit old.
But going back to Alabama, and allowing for the greater inequality in the USA, it’s not at all credible that Alabama is wealthier than Germany.
America gets the sunshine tho. But they also get the storms and the crime and the opioids
They may not be world beaters there either, but they probably know 'Wah, I didn't get the prize Big Boris promised me!' is not a sympathy grabber.
There’s nothing to see. You can drive for 200 miles and there might be a Museum of the American Thimble, and perhaps a well preserved 1930s Exxon garage
Drive for 200 miles in Britain, France and Italy and you will pass 13 cathedrals, 218 castles, 1,927 medieval churches, a Stone Age ritual circle on ten, 63 towns founded by Romans, 143 ghost villages destroyed by the Black Death, and all the crowded hassles and issues that come with that density of history and settlement
Chacon a son gout
Same for Tuscaloosa. Mobile is less, but more than muddy (which it is). Dauphin Island and some other Gulf Coast places retirement destinations.