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Sunak’s investing too much political capital on “stopping the boats” – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited March 2023 in General
imageSunak’s investing too much political capital on “stopping the boats” – politicalbetting.com

I sometimes wonder whether having both a Prime Minister and a Home Secretary who are of immigrant origin is a big reason why the government feels it has to take such a high-profile on being seen to be trying to control numbers. It is as though they feel they feel they need to be extra tough on this particular area.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,398
    edited March 2023
    What? Another first in the bag!

    And aren't these boats acting as dead cats?
  • First after second preferences.
  • In response to Mike, no he's not.

    It's clear from the polling that the Conservatives need to get a lot of people who voted for them in 2019 to come off the fence and vote for them again. They also could do with squeezing the Reform vote. The boats policy disproportionately aims at both while putting SKS in the position of opposing it and allowing Sunak to claim that if Labour gets in, it's immigration galore.

    Blair won in 97 because he persuaded a lot of Tory voters he was unthreatening. Sunak is trying to position it so that Labour and SKS are seen as a threat.

    As for the economy, much of that will sort itself out. Inflation will come down, jobs data is still healthy and tax receipts will be strong.



  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620

    Nigelb said:

    Labour says it has obtained a leaked DfT document showing that HS2 delay will increase costs, lead to job cuts and could see construction firms go bust

    Louise Haigh says that the document suggests HS2 could terminate on the outskirts of London until 2041

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1635624935342178304

    The depressing thing is that this is barely even a surprise.

    "terminate on the outskirts of London"

    So a high speed line starting at Euston and finishing at Old Oak Common?
    With stop at Mornington Crescent?

    More we know, the more MY scheme (he-he-he) for a PNEUMATIC TUBE system linking all parts of the UK with each other, is THE way to go.

    Imagine talking the PNTUBE (pronounced "pee-in-toob"?) from the Isle of Wight to Wick and back (via Woolwich, West Bromwich & Wolverhampton) in just 6 minutes!

    WOOOOOOOOSSSSSSSHHHHHHH!!!!!
    Compressing all the air in your 600 mile PNTUBE to get the carriage moving might prove a little tricky.

    Perhaps Malmesbury could contribute a device to create a suitable pressure wave?

    A linear motor and a vacuum tube might work better but I get the impression Elon isn't serious about his version, so someone else may be needed to do it properly.
    Operation Plumbob says hi. Now, just stand on this manhole cover…

    Various groups are working on Hyperloop/vactrain concepts. I think someone got past 250mph a while back.

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    🤦‍♀️ so close
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,145

    What? Another first in the bag!

    And aren't these boats acting as dead cats?

    Operation Taxable might make an interesting comparison. Certainly a patriotic one, whistle the Dambuster March all you want.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    In response to Mike, no he's not.

    It's clear from the polling that the Conservatives need to get a lot of people who voted for them in 2019 to come off the fence and vote for them again. They also could do with squeezing the Reform vote. The boats policy disproportionately aims at both while putting SKS in the position of opposing it and allowing Sunak to claim that if Labour gets in, it's immigration galore.

    Blair won in 97 because he persuaded a lot of Tory voters he was unthreatening. Sunak is trying to position it so that Labour and SKS are seen as a threat.

    As for the economy, much of that will sort itself out. Inflation will come down, jobs data is still healthy and tax receipts will be strong.



    As a counter to that it is likely that the legislation won't work. It is aimed at dissuasion but there's no evidence the Rwanda thing dissuaded anyone. So he's set himself up to fail.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    He might think that’s it makes him look tough, but it also makes him and the Home Secretary look like dogs in the manger.
    Or in the case of the Home Secretary……. no, I won’t say it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620
    I have several plans to stop the boats. Could we do a poll on them?

    1) undocumented entry to the U.K. equals involuntary enlistment in the Royal Navy.
    2) hire the Libyan Coastguard to patrol the Channel
    3) reconquest of the Pale of Calais.
    4) 100k fine for employer, half to migrant giving evidence. Plus indefinite leave to remain
    5) pay the smuggling gangs according to the numbers that don’t arrive
    6) combine 5) and 2) - create a syndicate of criminals and slavers. We could call it the Honourable West Europe Company….
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    First after second preferences.

    Congratulations Kate!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Red Wall polling:

    NEW @JLPartnersPolls of the Red Wall for @Channel4News.

    On current numbers, the Conservatives would lose all of their seats in the Red Wall.

    BUT – Rishi Sunak’s approval ratings are surging. What's going on? Deep dive thread… (1/18)


    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1635657218321252353?s=20
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,145
    edited March 2023
    DougSeal said:

    In response to Mike, no he's not.

    It's clear from the polling that the Conservatives need to get a lot of people who voted for them in 2019 to come off the fence and vote for them again. They also could do with squeezing the Reform vote. The boats policy disproportionately aims at both while putting SKS in the position of opposing it and allowing Sunak to claim that if Labour gets in, it's immigration galore.

    Blair won in 97 because he persuaded a lot of Tory voters he was unthreatening. Sunak is trying to position it so that Labour and SKS are seen as a threat.

    As for the economy, much of that will sort itself out. Inflation will come down, jobs data is still healthy and tax receipts will be strong.



    As a counter to that it is likely that the legislation won't work. It is aimed at dissuasion but there's no evidence the Rwanda thing dissuaded anyone. So he's set himself up to fail.
    One of us - LuckyGuy? apols if my memory is not right - was claiming the other dat that Rwanda had a substantial deterrent effect ...
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,853

    Nigelb said:

    Labour says it has obtained a leaked DfT document showing that HS2 delay will increase costs, lead to job cuts and could see construction firms go bust

    Louise Haigh says that the document suggests HS2 could terminate on the outskirts of London until 2041

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1635624935342178304

    The depressing thing is that this is barely even a surprise.

    "terminate on the outskirts of London"

    So a high speed line starting at Euston and finishing at Old Oak Common?
    With stop at Mornington Crescent?

    More we know, the more MY scheme (he-he-he) for a PNEUMATIC TUBE system linking all parts of the UK with each other, is THE way to go.

    Imagine talking the PNTUBE (pronounced "pee-in-toob"?) from the Isle of Wight to Wick and back (via Woolwich, West Bromwich & Wolverhampton) in just 6 minutes!

    WOOOOOOOOSSSSSSSHHHHHHH!!!!!
    Compressing all the air in your 600 mile PNTUBE to get the carriage moving might prove a little tricky.

    Perhaps Malmesbury could contribute a device to create a suitable pressure wave?

    A linear motor and a vacuum tube might work better but I get the impression Elon isn't serious about his version, so someone else may be needed to do it properly.
    Operation Plumbob says hi. Now, just stand on this manhole cover…

    Various groups are working on Hyperloop/vactrain concepts. I think someone got past 250mph a while back.

    Pascal-B?

    240,000km/h seems a bit over-quick even for a trip to Wick. Suggest moderating the charge a bit.

    I know the calculation says the lid evaporated but it would be fun to think there is a surprised manhole cover flying through outer space.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Stopping the Boats is the fifth listed priority.

    Trust in the Conservatives on immigration and asylum improves, though most still lack confidence

    Trust has particularly increased among 2019 Conservative voters, who are now more positive than negative.





    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/trust-conservatives-immigration-and-asylum-improves-though-most-still-lack-confidence
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,145
    edited March 2023
    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1635657243495374853

    "On who would make the better PM, Rishi Sunak has a 20 point lead over Boris Johnson amongst Red Wall voters. Sunak also leads Johnson with Leave voters and 2019 Tories. (7/18)"

    Wasn't one of us saying that Mr Johnson B.'s return was vital to save the Red Wall?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911

    I have several plans to stop the boats. Could we do a poll on them?

    1) undocumented entry to the U.K. equals involuntary enlistment in the Royal Navy.
    2) hire the Libyan Coastguard to patrol the Channel
    3) reconquest of the Pale of Calais.
    4) 100k fine for employer, half to migrant giving evidence. Plus indefinite leave to remain
    5) pay the smuggling gangs according to the numbers that don’t arrive
    6) combine 5) and 2) - create a syndicate of criminals and slavers. We could call it the Honourable West Europe Company….

    You forgot "indefinite internment on the Isle of Man" although perhaps that is a human rights abuse too far.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    Carnyx said:

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1635657243495374853

    "On who would make the better PM, Rishi Sunak has a 20 point lead over Boris Johnson amongst Red Wall voters. Sunak also leads Johnson with Leave voters and 2019 Tories. (7/18)"

    Wasn't one of us saying that Mr Johnson B.'s return was vital to save the Red Wall?

    As far as I can remember, several posters have been boosting The Boris Return. Though as pretty much all of them are from the left...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620

    Nigelb said:

    Labour says it has obtained a leaked DfT document showing that HS2 delay will increase costs, lead to job cuts and could see construction firms go bust

    Louise Haigh says that the document suggests HS2 could terminate on the outskirts of London until 2041

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1635624935342178304

    The depressing thing is that this is barely even a surprise.

    "terminate on the outskirts of London"

    So a high speed line starting at Euston and finishing at Old Oak Common?
    With stop at Mornington Crescent?

    More we know, the more MY scheme (he-he-he) for a PNEUMATIC TUBE system linking all parts of the UK with each other, is THE way to go.

    Imagine talking the PNTUBE (pronounced "pee-in-toob"?) from the Isle of Wight to Wick and back (via Woolwich, West Bromwich & Wolverhampton) in just 6 minutes!

    WOOOOOOOOSSSSSSSHHHHHHH!!!!!
    Compressing all the air in your 600 mile PNTUBE to get the carriage moving might prove a little tricky.

    Perhaps Malmesbury could contribute a device to create a suitable pressure wave?

    A linear motor and a vacuum tube might work better but I get the impression Elon isn't serious about his version, so someone else may be needed to do it properly.
    Operation Plumbob says hi. Now, just stand on this manhole cover…

    Various groups are working on Hyperloop/vactrain concepts. I think someone got past 250mph a while back.

    Pascal-B? 240,000km/h seems a bit over-quick even for a trip to Wick. Suggest moderating the charge a bit.
    Slacker - a journey time of 30 seconds to Wick is exactly what the country needs.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,145
    kyf_100 said:

    I have several plans to stop the boats. Could we do a poll on them?

    1) undocumented entry to the U.K. equals involuntary enlistment in the Royal Navy.
    2) hire the Libyan Coastguard to patrol the Channel
    3) reconquest of the Pale of Calais.
    4) 100k fine for employer, half to migrant giving evidence. Plus indefinite leave to remain
    5) pay the smuggling gangs according to the numbers that don’t arrive
    6) combine 5) and 2) - create a syndicate of criminals and slavers. We could call it the Honourable West Europe Company….

    You forgot "indefinite internment on the Isle of Man" although perhaps that is a human rights abuse too far.
    That would certainly meet the "deportation from the UK to some island somewhere" solution that was touted in 1972 as well as these days.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    edited March 2023
    What do so-called liberal democrats (in small letters) have to say about the fact that Andrew Tate is effectively being held without trial in Romania? Not interested because he doesn't have the right views, perhaps.

    https://news.sky.com/story/andrew-tate-loses-fresh-appeal-to-be-released-from-romanian-prison-amid-human-trafficking-case-12833347
  • Andy_JS said:

    What do so-called liberal democrats (in small letters) have to say about the fact that Andrew Tate is effectively being held without trial in Romania? Not interested because he doesn't have the right views, perhaps.

    https://news.sky.com/story/andrew-tate-loses-fresh-appeal-to-be-released-from-romanian-prison-amid-human-trafficking-case-12833347

    My God, you've only learned about remand today?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620
    kyf_100 said:

    I have several plans to stop the boats. Could we do a poll on them?

    1) undocumented entry to the U.K. equals involuntary enlistment in the Royal Navy.
    2) hire the Libyan Coastguard to patrol the Channel
    3) reconquest of the Pale of Calais.
    4) 100k fine for employer, half to migrant giving evidence. Plus indefinite leave to remain
    5) pay the smuggling gangs according to the numbers that don’t arrive
    6) combine 5) and 2) - create a syndicate of criminals and slavers. We could call it the Honourable West Europe Company….

    You forgot "indefinite internment on the Isle of Man" although perhaps that is a human rights abuse too far.
    Glasgow
  • Red Wall polling:

    NEW @JLPartnersPolls of the Red Wall for @Channel4News.

    On current numbers, the Conservatives would lose all of their seats in the Red Wall.

    BUT – Rishi Sunak’s approval ratings are surging. What's going on? Deep dive thread… (1/18)


    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1635657218321252353?s=20

    I wasn't a big fan of Sunak but, from a competence standpoint, he's definitely moving in the right direction.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620

    Andy_JS said:

    What do so-called liberal democrats (in small letters) have to say about the fact that Andrew Tate is effectively being held without trial in Romania? Not interested because he doesn't have the right views, perhaps.

    https://news.sky.com/story/andrew-tate-loses-fresh-appeal-to-be-released-from-romanian-prison-amid-human-trafficking-case-12833347

    My God, you've only learned about remand today?
    Shhhhh

    Mind you, wait until he hears about people on bail being given bail. Up to 4 layers has been observed in the wild I believe.
  • Driver said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1635657243495374853

    "On who would make the better PM, Rishi Sunak has a 20 point lead over Boris Johnson amongst Red Wall voters. Sunak also leads Johnson with Leave voters and 2019 Tories. (7/18)"

    Wasn't one of us saying that Mr Johnson B.'s return was vital to save the Red Wall?

    As far as I can remember, several posters have been boosting The Boris Return. Though as pretty much all of them are from the left...
    HYUFD is a lefty?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522

    Andy_JS said:

    What do so-called liberal democrats (in small letters) have to say about the fact that Andrew Tate is effectively being held without trial in Romania? Not interested because he doesn't have the right views, perhaps.

    https://news.sky.com/story/andrew-tate-loses-fresh-appeal-to-be-released-from-romanian-prison-amid-human-trafficking-case-12833347

    My God, you've only learned about remand today?
    He's not on remand because he hasn't been charged yet.

    He's been in pre-charge detention for two and a half months. Tony "90 days" Blair would be proud.
  • DougSeal said:

    In response to Mike, no he's not.

    It's clear from the polling that the Conservatives need to get a lot of people who voted for them in 2019 to come off the fence and vote for them again. They also could do with squeezing the Reform vote. The boats policy disproportionately aims at both while putting SKS in the position of opposing it and allowing Sunak to claim that if Labour gets in, it's immigration galore.

    Blair won in 97 because he persuaded a lot of Tory voters he was unthreatening. Sunak is trying to position it so that Labour and SKS are seen as a threat.

    As for the economy, much of that will sort itself out. Inflation will come down, jobs data is still healthy and tax receipts will be strong.



    As a counter to that it is likely that the legislation won't work. It is aimed at dissuasion but there's no evidence the Rwanda thing dissuaded anyone. So he's set himself up to fail.
    I think there is a lot more positivity towards Sunak from Macron, which will make a difference.

    In any event, even if it doesn't work (and I think it may), he will have shown Labour is still on the side of immigration. SKS can talk about Labour's plan being more effective but few believe it and a lot in his own party don't want it - which is exactly what this row is showing.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,145

    Nigelb said:

    Labour says it has obtained a leaked DfT document showing that HS2 delay will increase costs, lead to job cuts and could see construction firms go bust

    Louise Haigh says that the document suggests HS2 could terminate on the outskirts of London until 2041

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1635624935342178304

    The depressing thing is that this is barely even a surprise.

    "terminate on the outskirts of London"

    So a high speed line starting at Euston and finishing at Old Oak Common?
    With stop at Mornington Crescent?

    More we know, the more MY scheme (he-he-he) for a PNEUMATIC TUBE system linking all parts of the UK with each other, is THE way to go.

    Imagine talking the PNTUBE (pronounced "pee-in-toob"?) from the Isle of Wight to Wick and back (via Woolwich, West Bromwich & Wolverhampton) in just 6 minutes!

    WOOOOOOOOSSSSSSSHHHHHHH!!!!!
    Compressing all the air in your 600 mile PNTUBE to get the carriage moving might prove a little tricky.

    Perhaps Malmesbury could contribute a device to create a suitable pressure wave?

    A linear motor and a vacuum tube might work better but I get the impression Elon isn't serious about his version, so someone else may be needed to do it properly.
    Operation Plumbob says hi. Now, just stand on this manhole cover…

    Various groups are working on Hyperloop/vactrain concepts. I think someone got past 250mph a while back.

    Pascal-B? 240,000km/h seems a bit over-quick even for a trip to Wick. Suggest moderating the charge a bit.
    Slacker - a journey time of 30 seconds to Wick is exactly what the country needs.
    Many years ago, was on a behind the scenes tour of the stores at the National Railway Museum. Was overjoyed to se a large cast iron chunk of pneumatic railway sitting outside, as steampunk as ever you could wish.

    And is it possible to patent the Hyperloop when the Victorians did it all already in the depths of London? General Post Office no less.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Driver said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What do so-called liberal democrats (in small letters) have to say about the fact that Andrew Tate is effectively being held without trial in Romania? Not interested because he doesn't have the right views, perhaps.

    https://news.sky.com/story/andrew-tate-loses-fresh-appeal-to-be-released-from-romanian-prison-amid-human-trafficking-case-12833347

    My God, you've only learned about remand today?
    He's not on remand because he hasn't been charged yet.

    He's been in pre-charge detention for two and a half months. Tony "90 days" Blair would be proud.
    Hey if you are foolish enough to do dodgy things in a country with dodgy laws - you should expect to be caught out by them.
  • Driver said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What do so-called liberal democrats (in small letters) have to say about the fact that Andrew Tate is effectively being held without trial in Romania? Not interested because he doesn't have the right views, perhaps.

    https://news.sky.com/story/andrew-tate-loses-fresh-appeal-to-be-released-from-romanian-prison-amid-human-trafficking-case-12833347

    My God, you've only learned about remand today?
    He's not on remand because he hasn't been charged yet.

    He's been in pre-charge detention for two and a half months. Tony "90 days" Blair would be proud.
    I thought he had, my bad.

    But the underlying principle applies, we have pre-trial detention here.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,398
    Off topic:

    Bird species number 42 in our garden today: Reed Bunting

    And still no House Sparrows!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,968
    edited March 2023
    Well now.

    Rishi Sunak brings home stash of Mexican Coke from California

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/03/14/rishi-sunak-brings-home-stash-mexican-coke-california/

    Now that's a headline you'd expect from me.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574
    Driver said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What do so-called liberal democrats (in small letters) have to say about the fact that Andrew Tate is effectively being held without trial in Romania? Not interested because he doesn't have the right views, perhaps.

    https://news.sky.com/story/andrew-tate-loses-fresh-appeal-to-be-released-from-romanian-prison-amid-human-trafficking-case-12833347

    My God, you've only learned about remand today?
    He's not on remand because he hasn't been charged yet.

    He's been in pre-charge detention for two and a half months. Tony "90 days" Blair would be proud.
    180 day limit in Romania.
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/2023/feb/21/andrew-tate-to-be-held-in-romania-for-30-more-days-as-court-extends-detention

    Not good, but those are their rules.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Labour says it has obtained a leaked DfT document showing that HS2 delay will increase costs, lead to job cuts and could see construction firms go bust

    Louise Haigh says that the document suggests HS2 could terminate on the outskirts of London until 2041

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1635624935342178304

    The depressing thing is that this is barely even a surprise.

    "terminate on the outskirts of London"

    So a high speed line starting at Euston and finishing at Old Oak Common?
    With stop at Mornington Crescent?

    More we know, the more MY scheme (he-he-he) for a PNEUMATIC TUBE system linking all parts of the UK with each other, is THE way to go.

    Imagine talking the PNTUBE (pronounced "pee-in-toob"?) from the Isle of Wight to Wick and back (via Woolwich, West Bromwich & Wolverhampton) in just 6 minutes!

    WOOOOOOOOSSSSSSSHHHHHHH!!!!!
    Compressing all the air in your 600 mile PNTUBE to get the carriage moving might prove a little tricky.

    Perhaps Malmesbury could contribute a device to create a suitable pressure wave?

    A linear motor and a vacuum tube might work better but I get the impression Elon isn't serious about his version, so someone else may be needed to do it properly.
    Operation Plumbob says hi. Now, just stand on this manhole cover…

    Various groups are working on Hyperloop/vactrain concepts. I think someone got past 250mph a while back.

    Pascal-B? 240,000km/h seems a bit over-quick even for a trip to Wick. Suggest moderating the charge a bit.
    Slacker - a journey time of 30 seconds to Wick is exactly what the country needs.
    Many years ago, was on a behind the scenes tour of the stores at the National Railway Museum. Was overjoyed to se a large cast iron chunk of pneumatic railway sitting outside, as steampunk as ever you could wish.

    And is it possible to patent the Hyperloop when the Victorians did it all already in the depths of London? General Post Office no less.
    Different methodologies. Hyperloop is a variation on the vactrain concept. The idea is that by going really fast, you fly on the air compressed by going under the vehicle. Partially evacuating the tube increases the speed at which this works.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620
    eek said:

    Driver said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What do so-called liberal democrats (in small letters) have to say about the fact that Andrew Tate is effectively being held without trial in Romania? Not interested because he doesn't have the right views, perhaps.

    https://news.sky.com/story/andrew-tate-loses-fresh-appeal-to-be-released-from-romanian-prison-amid-human-trafficking-case-12833347

    My God, you've only learned about remand today?
    He's not on remand because he hasn't been charged yet.

    He's been in pre-charge detention for two and a half months. Tony "90 days" Blair would be proud.
    Hey if you are foolish enough to do dodgy things in a country with dodgy laws - you should expect to be caught out by them.
    And if you are a non resident foreigner, most jurisdictions will automatically consider you a flight risk.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Looks like a US Reaper drone has been shot down over the Black Sea.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,239

    In response to Mike, no he's not.

    It's clear from the polling that the Conservatives need to get a lot of people who voted for them in 2019 to come off the fence and vote for them again. They also could do with squeezing the Reform vote. The boats policy disproportionately aims at both while putting SKS in the position of opposing it and allowing Sunak to claim that if Labour gets in, it's immigration galore.

    Blair won in 97 because he persuaded a lot of Tory voters he was unthreatening. Sunak is trying to position it so that Labour and SKS are seen as a threat.

    As for the economy, much of that will sort itself out. Inflation will come down, jobs data is still healthy and tax receipts will be strong.



    "Blair won in 97 because he persuaded a lot of Tory voters he was unthreatening. Sunak is trying to position it so that Labour and SKS are seen as a threat."

    Remember "Demon-eyes Bambi"?

    This strategy makes as much sense, as Mad Vlad's half-assed re-enactment of Red Army's greatest hits. And the Red Army actually WON in 1945, unlike the Tories in 1997.
  • You really need to read the full story to understood the true weirdness of this story.

    ‘Female Basil Fawlty’ barrister disbarred after attacking staff at her Devon hotel

    Shirley Bothroyd, jailed for 22 weeks in 2017 for string of assaults, was kicked out for ‘behaving in a way likely to diminish public trust’


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/03/14/female-basil-fawlty-barrister-disbarred-attack-staff-devon-hotel/
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,239

    Well now.

    Rishi Sunak brings home stash of Mexican Coke from California

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/03/14/rishi-sunak-brings-home-stash-mexican-coke-california/

    Now that's a headline you'd expect from me.

    Odd, this PM (unlike his immediate predecessor once removed) does NOT look pre-diabetic?
  • Red Wall polling:

    NEW @JLPartnersPolls of the Red Wall for @Channel4News.

    On current numbers, the Conservatives would lose all of their seats in the Red Wall.

    BUT – Rishi Sunak’s approval ratings are surging. What's going on? Deep dive thread… (1/18)


    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1635657218321252353?s=20

    Sunak has had a fairly high profile recently with the WF, summit with Macron over the boats, and yesterday with Biden in the US re AUKUS

    It is also noticeable how he refused to endorse Sharp, will not intervene to save Johnson , and has invited Biden to NI for the anniversary of the GFA

    Sunak in some ways is at the start of a journey like Starmer was, to move the party away from the toxicity of Johnson and Truss and be seen as competent and diligent in total contrast to the last two leaders

    It does not surprise me that he has achieved a 17 point improvement in his ratings to +1 and that in this poll he ties with Starmer as best PM

    I have maintained for a long time he is the conservative party's best chance of mitigating the next GE result though Starmer is very much the favourite

    I would just say his confirmation Hunt will remain COE to the next election is excellent news
  • Well now.

    Rishi Sunak brings home stash of Mexican Coke from California

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/03/14/rishi-sunak-brings-home-stash-mexican-coke-california/

    Now that's a headline you'd expect from me.

    Odd, this PM (unlike his immediate predecessor once removed) does NOT look pre-diabetic?
    I do wonder about the state of his teeth though.
  • kyf_100 said:

    I have several plans to stop the boats. Could we do a poll on them?

    1) undocumented entry to the U.K. equals involuntary enlistment in the Royal Navy.
    2) hire the Libyan Coastguard to patrol the Channel
    3) reconquest of the Pale of Calais.
    4) 100k fine for employer, half to migrant giving evidence. Plus indefinite leave to remain
    5) pay the smuggling gangs according to the numbers that don’t arrive
    6) combine 5) and 2) - create a syndicate of criminals and slavers. We could call it the Honourable West Europe Company….

    You forgot "indefinite internment on the Isle of Man" although perhaps that is a human rights abuse too far.


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12EeoRTWuXA
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,968
    edited March 2023
    I hate bigotry in all forms, if Ireland do not suspend Mack Hansen then they are condoning bigotry and hatred and they'll end up being as bitter as Welsh rugby fans.

    Ireland winger Mack Hansen has upped the ante ahead of Saturday's Six Nations showdown by claiming that "everybody hates England".

    Steve Borthwick's side will travel to Dublin on Saturday in the hope of stopping Ireland, the world's No1 side, claiming a first Grand Slam since 2018.

    However, Hansen has declared that Ireland have motivation beyond finishing the tournament unbeaten.

    "I think everybody hates England in general! It’s something I was aware of [before coming to Ireland] for sure," said the Australian-born Hansen who qualifies for Andy Farrell's side through his Cork-born mother.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/rugby-union/2023/03/13/everybody-hates-england-says-ireland-wing-mack-hansen/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574

    Well now.

    Rishi Sunak brings home stash of Mexican Coke from California

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/03/14/rishi-sunak-brings-home-stash-mexican-coke-california/

    Now that's a headline you'd expect from me.

    Odd, this PM (unlike his immediate predecessor once removed) does NOT look pre-diabetic?
    I do wonder about the state of his teeth though.
    PM's Coke Habit is a great headline.
  • I hate bigotry in all forms, if Ireland do not suspend Mack Hansen then they are condoning bigotry and hatred and they'll end up being as bitter as Welsh rugby fans.

    Ireland winger Mack Hansen has upped the ante ahead of Saturday's Six Nations showdown by claiming that "everybody hates England".

    Steve Borthwick's side will travel to Dublin on Saturday in the hope of stopping Ireland, the world's No1 side, claiming a first Grand Slam since 2018.

    However, Hansen has declared that Ireland have motivation beyond finishing the tournament unbeaten.

    "I think everybody hates England in general! It’s something I was aware of [before coming to Ireland] for sure," said the Australian-born Hansen who qualifies for Andy Farrell's side through his Cork-born mother.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/rugby-union/2023/03/13/everybody-hates-england-says-ireland-wing-mack-hansen/

    Another plastic Paddy trying to ingratiate himself. The funny thing is most of the Irish gave up that attitude a long time ago.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,002
    edited March 2023
    Drop for labour in blue wall

    Labour leads by 2% in the Blue Wall. In 2019, Labour came THIRD in these seats.

    Blue Wall Voting Intention (12 March):

    Labour 36% (-5)
    Conservative 34% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 23% (+5)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Green 3% (-2)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 26 Feb
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454

    You really need to read the full story to understood the true weirdness of this story.

    ‘Female Basil Fawlty’ barrister disbarred after attacking staff at her Devon hotel

    Shirley Bothroyd, jailed for 22 weeks in 2017 for string of assaults, was kicked out for ‘behaving in a way likely to diminish public trust’


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/03/14/female-basil-fawlty-barrister-disbarred-attack-staff-devon-hotel/

    Seems to tick most of the boxes as a potential future Tory candidate......
  • In response to Mike, no he's not.

    It's clear from the polling that the Conservatives need to get a lot of people who voted for them in 2019 to come off the fence and vote for them again. They also could do with squeezing the Reform vote. The boats policy disproportionately aims at both while putting SKS in the position of opposing it and allowing Sunak to claim that if Labour gets in, it's immigration galore.

    Blair won in 97 because he persuaded a lot of Tory voters he was unthreatening. Sunak is trying to position it so that Labour and SKS are seen as a threat.

    As for the economy, much of that will sort itself out. Inflation will come down, jobs data is still healthy and tax receipts will be strong.



    "Blair won in 97 because he persuaded a lot of Tory voters he was unthreatening. Sunak is trying to position it so that Labour and SKS are seen as a threat."

    Remember "Demon-eyes Bambi"?

    This strategy makes as much sense, as Mad Vlad's half-assed re-enactment of Red Army's greatest hits. And the Red Army actually WON in 1945, unlike the Tories in 1997.
    SKS is not Blair.

    Plus, there are plenty of - older - voters who remember being hoodwinked by Blair's "I'm a nice guy" crap. Unfortunately for SKS, he also has to deal with the implications of that
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343

    Andy_JS said:

    What do so-called liberal democrats (in small letters) have to say about the fact that Andrew Tate is effectively being held without trial in Romania? Not interested because he doesn't have the right views, perhaps.

    https://news.sky.com/story/andrew-tate-loses-fresh-appeal-to-be-released-from-romanian-prison-amid-human-trafficking-case-12833347

    My God, you've only learned about remand today?
    No idea on the detail, but TSE's comment is unfair on the face of the story.

    The story says they have not been charged. In English law they therefore could not be held in detention for this length of time.

    In general principle of natural justice you can't hold people longer than a very short time just on suspicion.

    However foreign law is, as they say, a foreign country, they do things differently. Unless you talk to an experienced Romanian defence lawyer who also knows how to translate concepts into an English ways of thinking you won't know the real situation.

    Romania I presume is in the ECHR. The right not to be detained unjustly or in an arbitrary manner is fundamental.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,046
    Driver said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1635657243495374853

    "On who would make the better PM, Rishi Sunak has a 20 point lead over Boris Johnson amongst Red Wall voters. Sunak also leads Johnson with Leave voters and 2019 Tories. (7/18)"

    Wasn't one of us saying that Mr Johnson B.'s return was vital to save the Red Wall?

    As far as I can remember, several posters have been boosting The Boris Return. Though as pretty much all of them are from the left...
    It seems to me that Stanley Johnson's knighthood is pretty much a signal that Boris has chucked in the towel. If he was confident of getting back in, he'd have saved that delight for when he came back, as it is damaging.

    Or I could be completely wrong - where Boris is concerned you just never know.
  • Test
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    edited March 2023

    Drop for labour in blue wall

    Labour leads by 2% in the Blue Wall. In 2019, Labour came THIRD in these seats.

    Blue Wall Voting Intention (12 March):

    Labour 36% (-5)
    Conservative 34% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 23% (+5)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Green 3% (-2)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 26 Feb

    More than a margin of error drop for Labour.

    Maybe their position on migrants is being seen as neither fish nor fowl. EIther go hard (Tories) or go soft (LibDems)?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    You really need to read the full story to understood the true weirdness of this story.

    ‘Female Basil Fawlty’ barrister disbarred after attacking staff at her Devon hotel

    Shirley Bothroyd, jailed for 22 weeks in 2017 for string of assaults, was kicked out for ‘behaving in a way likely to diminish public trust’


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/03/14/female-basil-fawlty-barrister-disbarred-attack-staff-devon-hotel/

    I once instructed her and also was an advocate in an ET claim against her. She was at Littleton Chambers. One firm I was at we were not allowed to instruct her again after she told one of our clients to instruct her favourite firm. I’ve been following this for some years and my initial amusement has
    been tempered by the fact she has severe alcohol issues.
  • Drop for labour in blue wall

    Labour leads by 2% in the Blue Wall. In 2019, Labour came THIRD in these seats.

    Blue Wall Voting Intention (12 March):

    Labour 36% (-5)
    Conservative 34% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 23% (+5)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Green 3% (-2)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 26 Feb

    More than a margin of error drop for Labour.

    Maybe their position on migrants is being seen as neither fish nor fowl. EIther go hard (Tories) or go soft (LibDems)?
    Green drop weird in that context - 40% of their share of vote.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,800

    Looks like a US Reaper drone has been shot down over the Black Sea.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64957792

    "Russian jet collides with US drone over Black Sea"

    That seems less than ideal..
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,046

    Well now.

    Rishi Sunak brings home stash of Mexican Coke from California

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/03/14/rishi-sunak-brings-home-stash-mexican-coke-california/

    Now that's a headline you'd expect from me.

    Odd, this PM (unlike his immediate predecessor once removed) does NOT look pre-diabetic?
    I do wonder about the state of his teeth though.
    Maintaining an adequate veneer most of the time, but rotten from the inside like his Government?
  • Drop for labour in blue wall

    Labour leads by 2% in the Blue Wall. In 2019, Labour came THIRD in these seats.

    Blue Wall Voting Intention (12 March):

    Labour 36% (-5)
    Conservative 34% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 23% (+5)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Green 3% (-2)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 26 Feb

    That is a far worse poll for the Tories than the one it compares against. The threat to them in so may blue wall seats are the Lib Dems, not Labour. So a chunk upwards of my current lot is worse from a Tory seats perspective than a bigger lead for my former lot.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    In response to Mike, no he's not.

    It's clear from the polling that the Conservatives need to get a lot of people who voted for them in 2019 to come off the fence and vote for them again. They also could do with squeezing the Reform vote. The boats policy disproportionately aims at both while putting SKS in the position of opposing it and allowing Sunak to claim that if Labour gets in, it's immigration galore.

    Blair won in 97 because he persuaded a lot of Tory voters he was unthreatening. Sunak is trying to position it so that Labour and SKS are seen as a threat.

    As for the economy, much of that will sort itself out. Inflation will come down, jobs data is still healthy and tax receipts will be strong.

    "Blair won in 97 because he persuaded a lot of Tory voters he was unthreatening. Sunak is trying to position it so that Labour and SKS are seen as a threat."

    Remember "Demon-eyes Bambi"?

    This strategy makes as much sense, as Mad Vlad's half-assed re-enactment of Red Army's greatest hits. And the Red Army actually WON in 1945, unlike the Tories in 1997.
    SKS is not Blair.

    Plus, there are plenty of - older - voters who remember being hoodwinked by Blair's "I'm a nice guy" crap. Unfortunately for SKS, he also has to deal with the implications of that
    Whiter than white Blair?
  • DougSeal said:

    You really need to read the full story to understood the true weirdness of this story.

    ‘Female Basil Fawlty’ barrister disbarred after attacking staff at her Devon hotel

    Shirley Bothroyd, jailed for 22 weeks in 2017 for string of assaults, was kicked out for ‘behaving in a way likely to diminish public trust’


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/03/14/female-basil-fawlty-barrister-disbarred-attack-staff-devon-hotel/

    I once instructed her and also was an advocate in an ET claim against her. She was at Littleton Chambers. One firm I was at we were not allowed to instruct her again after she told one of our clients to instruct her favourite firm. I’ve been following this for some years and my initial amusement has been tempered by the fact she has severe alcohol issues.
    Blimey.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    DougSeal said:

    You really need to read the full story to understood the true weirdness of this story.

    ‘Female Basil Fawlty’ barrister disbarred after attacking staff at her Devon hotel

    Shirley Bothroyd, jailed for 22 weeks in 2017 for string of assaults, was kicked out for ‘behaving in a way likely to diminish public trust’


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/03/14/female-basil-fawlty-barrister-disbarred-attack-staff-devon-hotel/

    I once instructed her and also was an advocate in an ET claim against her. She was at Littleton Chambers. One firm I was at we were not allowed to instruct her again after she told one of our clients to instruct her favourite firm. I’ve been following this for some years and my initial amusement has been tempered by the fact she has severe alcohol issues.
    Blimey.
    You've got to sympathise, also, given that in that photo she looks like a clown in bad drag.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620

    Test

    Set CRM-114 to OPE. Set CRM-114 to OPE

    Initiate Plan R for Ripper.

    Ends.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,239

    Red Wall polling:

    NEW @JLPartnersPolls of the Red Wall for @Channel4News.

    On current numbers, the Conservatives would lose all of their seats in the Red Wall.

    BUT – Rishi Sunak’s approval ratings are surging. What's going on? Deep dive thread… (1/18)


    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1635657218321252353?s=20

    Sunak has had a fairly high profile recently with the WF, summit with Macron over the boats, and yesterday with Biden in the US re AUKUS

    It is also noticeable how he refused to endorse Sharp, will not intervene to save Johnson , and has invited Biden to NI for the anniversary of the GFA

    Sunak in some ways is at the start of a journey like Starmer was, to move the party away from the toxicity of Johnson and Truss and be seen as competent and diligent in total contrast to the last two leaders

    It does not surprise me that he has achieved a 17 point improvement in his ratings to +1 and that in this poll he ties with Starmer as best PM

    I have maintained for a long time he is the conservative party's best chance of mitigating the next GE result though Starmer is very much the favourite

    I would just say his confirmation Hunt will remain COE to the next election is excellent news
    You make much sense. At least up until final sentence! Though see where you are coming from, in terms of Tory alternatives at present juncture.

    And raise (at least for me) the following question: how does PM & HMG's policy AND rhetoric re: refugees fit into the picture?

    Am thinking in particular, of the very specific promise/threat to deny boat people protections against slavery and torture? Which PM and Co have gone out of their way to emphasize and publicize?

    Tough is one thing. Pledging to throw folks to the wolves would appear specifically calculated, to reassure wacked-out Blue Meanies of Rishi Sunak's anti-woke bone fiedes? So they do NOT to flake off and vote for Reform when the next Election Day dawns?

    In this context, is Rishi Sunak's ethnicity a factor, as suggested down-thread, in that he and/or others at No. 10 think he needs extra immunization (politically) due to his own heritage? (In way that Boris Johnson never did, oddly enough!)

    Personally, tend to agree with OGH. And as ethic argument, would seem (to me anyway) that Suella Braverman is already providing ethno-politico "cover' on that front. By the boatload (to coin a phrase).


  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,853
    edited March 2023
    ohnotnow said:

    Looks like a US Reaper drone has been shot down over the Black Sea.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64957792

    "Russian jet collides with US drone over Black Sea"

    That seems less than ideal..
    Far less than ideal given it would seem to have been deliberate.

    I guess the Russians are doing as badly as it appears and needed a distraction.

    Is there going to be a race to recover the wreckage?

    I quite liked the US response of it being "unprofessional and environmentally damaging" for the Russians to dump fuel in front of it, which does make it sound like they aren't going to take the bait.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,239
    ohnotnow said:

    Looks like a US Reaper drone has been shot down over the Black Sea.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64957792

    "Russian jet collides with US drone over Black Sea"

    That seems less than ideal..
    RAF (and USAAF?) neutralized/mitigated some V-1 buzz bombs in 1944, by gently (one presumes) nudging them with their wing tips, thus abruptly disrupting their fight paths.

    Does NOT appear that Mad Vlad's Flying Circus has achieved quite the same level of finesse?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    ohnotnow said:

    Looks like a US Reaper drone has been shot down over the Black Sea.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64957792

    "Russian jet collides with US drone over Black Sea"

    That seems less than ideal..
    RAF (and USAAF?) neutralized/mitigated some V-1 buzz bombs in 1944, by gently (one presumes) nudging them with their wing tips, thus abruptly disrupting their fight paths.

    Does NOT appear that Mad Vlad's Flying Circus has achieved quite the same level of finesse?
    On the walls of country pubs across Kent there used to be, and in at least one I can think of there still is, a map of Kent with black dots indicating where such V1s fell on
    Kent. There were a lot of them. It had been a free pull out in a commemorative edition of the Kent Messenger back in the 70s.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793
    So - with the new format for the World Cup, the first seventy-two matches will result in a total of eight teams eliminated out of forty-eight?
    Huh.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,002
    edited March 2023

    Red Wall polling:

    NEW @JLPartnersPolls of the Red Wall for @Channel4News.

    On current numbers, the Conservatives would lose all of their seats in the Red Wall.

    BUT – Rishi Sunak’s approval ratings are surging. What's going on? Deep dive thread… (1/18)


    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1635657218321252353?s=20

    Sunak has had a fairly high profile recently with the WF, summit with Macron over the boats, and yesterday with Biden in the US re AUKUS

    It is also noticeable how he refused to endorse Sharp, will not intervene to save Johnson , and has invited Biden to NI for the anniversary of the GFA

    Sunak in some ways is at the start of a journey like Starmer was, to move the party away from the toxicity of Johnson and Truss and be seen as competent and diligent in total contrast to the last two leaders

    It does not surprise me that he has achieved a 17 point improvement in his ratings to +1 and that in this poll he ties with Starmer as best PM

    I have maintained for a long time he is the conservative party's best chance of mitigating the next GE result though Starmer is very much the favourite

    I would just say his confirmation Hunt will remain COE to the next election is excellent news
    You make much sense. At least up until final sentence! Though see where you are coming from, in terms of Tory alternatives at present juncture.

    And raise (at least for me) the following question: how does PM & HMG's policy AND rhetoric re: refugees fit into the picture?

    Am thinking in particular, of the very specific promise/threat to deny boat people protections against slavery and torture? Which PM and Co have gone out of their way to emphasize and publicize?

    Tough is one thing. Pledging to throw folks to the wolves would appear specifically calculated, to reassure wacked-out Blue Meanies of Rishi Sunak's anti-woke bone fiedes? So they do NOT to flake off and vote for Reform when the next Election Day dawns?

    In this context, is Rishi Sunak's ethnicity a factor, as suggested down-thread, in that he and/or others at No. 10 think he needs extra immunization (politically) due to his own heritage? (In way that Boris Johnson never did, oddly enough!)

    Personally, tend to agree with OGH. And as ethic argument, would seem (to me anyway) that Suella Braverman is already providing ethno-politico "cover' on that front. By the boatload (to coin a phrase).


    If you listen to Sunak he says the bill is part of the strategy to stop the boats and his agreement with Macron of further intervention in France is more likely the practical part

    42 conservative mps abstained last night, though none voted against , and while children are excluded from the legislation expect further changes led by Theresa May

    I do not like Braverman but the need to stop the boats, not only in the channel, but the Mediterranean is absolutely the right thing to do

    I am not sure that Sunak's ethnicity is relevant to be honest

    Stopping the boats will not trump the economy or NHS, but it will be an issue in GE24 as Sunak has made it one
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    This is about 15-20% more than average.

    "'I earn £30,000 a year and I'm still struggling'"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64824078
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    DougSeal said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Looks like a US Reaper drone has been shot down over the Black Sea.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64957792

    "Russian jet collides with US drone over Black Sea"

    That seems less than ideal..
    RAF (and USAAF?) neutralized/mitigated some V-1 buzz bombs in 1944, by gently (one presumes) nudging them with their wing tips, thus abruptly disrupting their fight paths.

    Does NOT appear that Mad Vlad's Flying Circus has achieved quite the same level of finesse?
    On the walls of country pubs across Kent there used to be, and in at least one I can think of there still is, a map of Kent with black dots indicating where such V1s fell on
    Kent. There were a lot of them. It had been a free pull out in a commemorative edition of the Kent Messenger back in the 70s.
    For those interested in said map ( @SeaShantyIrish2 ?)-

    https://www.raremaps.com/gallery/detail/67270/second-world-war-v-1-campaign-where-the-doodle-bugs-cr-kent-messanger

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited March 2023
    Immigration and stopping the boats is however a big issue in the redwall and Leave swing seats where the next general election will be won. While Rishi has made gains in the bluewall seats where the economy is most important relative to Boris and Truss he has lost support in those Leave swing seats relative to Boris as there Immigration is a big issue alongside the economy and NHS
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,152

    So - with the new format for the World Cup, the first seventy-two matches will result in a total of eight teams eliminated out of forty-eight?
    Huh.

    16? 48 down to 32?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    So - with the new format for the World Cup, the first seventy-two matches will result in a total of eight teams eliminated out of forty-eight?
    Huh.

    Sixteen out of 48 will be eliminated. Still rubbish, though.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,239
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    You really need to read the full story to understood the true weirdness of this story.

    ‘Female Basil Fawlty’ barrister disbarred after attacking staff at her Devon hotel

    Shirley Bothroyd, jailed for 22 weeks in 2017 for string of assaults, was kicked out for ‘behaving in a way likely to diminish public trust’


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/03/14/female-basil-fawlty-barrister-disbarred-attack-staff-devon-hotel/

    I once instructed her and also was an advocate in an ET claim against her. She was at Littleton Chambers. One firm I was at we were not allowed to instruct her again after she told one of our clients to instruct her favourite firm. I’ve been following this for some years and my initial amusement has been tempered by the fact she has severe alcohol issues.
    Blimey.
    You've got to sympathise, also, given that in that photo she looks like a clown in bad drag.
    The case of the woman banned from her own hotel, is in the more-to-be-pitied-than-censured department.

    Especially as it seems she's been censured plenty already, albeit with cause.

    Hospitality industry is a BAD fit for alcoholics, esp. those who typically get "tired and emotional' when drunk.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,667

    Drop for labour in blue wall

    Labour leads by 2% in the Blue Wall. In 2019, Labour came THIRD in these seats.

    Blue Wall Voting Intention (12 March):

    Labour 36% (-5)
    Conservative 34% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 23% (+5)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Green 3% (-2)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 26 Feb

    More than a margin of error drop for Labour.

    Maybe their position on migrants is being seen as neither fish nor fowl. EIther go hard (Tories) or go soft (LibDems)?
    Or it could be that the Lib Dems are campaigning hard ahead of the local elections, and squeezing the Labour vote where it counts.....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,002
    edited March 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Immigration and stopping the boats is however a big issue in the redwall and Leave swing seats where the next general election will be won. While Rishi has made gains in the bluewall seats where the economy is most important relative to Boris and Truss he has lost support in those Leave swing seats relative to Boris as there Immigration is a big issue alongside the economy and NHS

    If you have digested this poll how can you not see how toxic Johnson is compared to Sunak

    https://twitter.com/iaanwasere/status/1635660269488599042?t=CRgGof0vp1T7cZkFX0rPlQ&s=19
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    So - with the new format for the World Cup, the first seventy-two matches will result in a total of eight teams eliminated out of forty-eight?
    Huh.

    16, I think? But still, bit bloated and unwieldy.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,239
    Andy_JS said:

    This is about 15-20% more than average.

    "'I earn £30,000 a year and I'm still struggling'"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64824078

    Precisely. Even those with above-average incomes are struggling in current economy.

    BTW, here in Seattle, the once red-hot housing market has coooooooooooooled off considerably.

    Why? Ain't no economist (thank you Jesus) but reckon combination of interest-rate hikes and tech-sector layoffs has something to do with it.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    You really need to read the full story to understood the true weirdness of this story.

    ‘Female Basil Fawlty’ barrister disbarred after attacking staff at her Devon hotel

    Shirley Bothroyd, jailed for 22 weeks in 2017 for string of assaults, was kicked out for ‘behaving in a way likely to diminish public trust’


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/03/14/female-basil-fawlty-barrister-disbarred-attack-staff-devon-hotel/

    I once instructed her and also was an advocate in an ET claim against her. She was at Littleton Chambers. One firm I was at we were not allowed to instruct her again after she told one of our clients to instruct her favourite firm. I’ve been following this for some years and my initial amusement has been tempered by the fact she has severe alcohol issues.
    Blimey.
    You've got to sympathise, also, given that in that photo she looks like a clown in bad drag.
    The case of the woman banned from her own hotel, is in the more-to-be-pitied-than-censured department.

    Especially as it seems she's been censured plenty already, albeit with cause.

    Hospitality industry is a BAD fit for alcoholics, esp. those who typically get "tired and emotional' when drunk.
    https://www.tbtas.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/hearings/5486/Outcome-Posting-Bothroyd-2.pdf

    "Ms Bothroyd was not open and cooperative with her regulator." Doesn't entirely surprise me.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    Red Wall polling:

    NEW @JLPartnersPolls of the Red Wall for @Channel4News.

    On current numbers, the Conservatives would lose all of their seats in the Red Wall.

    BUT – Rishi Sunak’s approval ratings are surging. What's going on? Deep dive thread… (1/18)


    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1635657218321252353?s=20

    Sunak has had a fairly high profile recently with the WF, summit with Macron over the boats, and yesterday with Biden in the US re AUKUS

    It is also noticeable how he refused to endorse Sharp, will not intervene to save Johnson , and has invited Biden to NI for the anniversary of the GFA

    Sunak in some ways is at the start of a journey like Starmer was, to move the party away from the toxicity of Johnson and Truss and be seen as competent and diligent in total contrast to the last two leaders

    It does not surprise me that he has achieved a 17 point improvement in his ratings to +1 and that in this poll he ties with Starmer as best PM

    I have maintained for a long time he is the conservative party's best chance of mitigating the next GE result though Starmer is very much the favourite

    I would just say his confirmation Hunt will remain COE to the next election is excellent news
    You make much sense. At least up until final sentence! Though see where you are coming from, in terms of Tory alternatives at present juncture.

    And raise (at least for me) the following question: how does PM & HMG's policy AND rhetoric re: refugees fit into the picture?

    Am thinking in particular, of the very specific promise/threat to deny boat people protections against slavery and torture? Which PM and Co have gone out of their way to emphasize and publicize?

    Tough is one thing. Pledging to throw folks to the wolves would appear specifically calculated, to reassure wacked-out Blue Meanies of Rishi Sunak's anti-woke bone fiedes? So they do NOT to flake off and vote for Reform when the next Election Day dawns?

    In this context, is Rishi Sunak's ethnicity a factor, as suggested down-thread, in that he and/or others at No. 10 think he needs extra immunization (politically) due to his own heritage? (In way that Boris Johnson never did, oddly enough!)

    Personally, tend to agree with OGH. And as ethic argument, would seem (to me anyway) that Suella Braverman is already providing ethno-politico "cover' on that front. By the boatload (to coin a phrase).


    If you listen to Sunak he says the bill is part of the strategy to stop the boats and his agreement with Macron of further intervention in France is more likely the practical part

    42 conservative mps abstained last night, though none voted against , and while children are excluded from the legislation expect further changes led by Theresa May

    I do not like Braverman but the need to stop the boats, not only in the channel, but the Mediterranean is absolutely the right thing to do

    I am not sure that Sunak's ethnicity is relevant to be honest

    Stopping the boats will not trump the economy or NHS, but it will be an issue in GE24 as Sunak has made it one
    So we've got the practical France bit and the theatrical 1930s Germany bit?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454
    tlg86 said:

    So - with the new format for the World Cup, the first seventy-two matches will result in a total of eight teams eliminated out of forty-eight?
    Huh.

    Sixteen out of 48 will be eliminated. Still rubbish, though.
    Have to give the Scots some chance, its only fair.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574
    Who recalls this today ?
    (Apart from Vietnam of course.)

    #OTD in 1988, Chinese and Vietnamese forces enaged in a fierce skirmish over the ownership of the Johnson South Reef in the highly disputed Spratly Islands. The outgunned Vietnamese lost 3 ships and more than 60 men in the fight. China now occupies the reef and has fortified it.
    https://twitter.com/NavalInstitute/status/1635665451035361280
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836
    edited March 2023

    So - with the new format for the World Cup, the first seventy-two matches will result in a total of eight teams eliminated out of forty-eight?
    Huh.

    Sixteen eliminated I believe.
    Reckon they might just want to go the whole hog to 64 teams.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,534

    Drop for labour in blue wall

    Labour leads by 2% in the Blue Wall. In 2019, Labour came THIRD in these seats.

    Blue Wall Voting Intention (12 March):

    Labour 36% (-5)
    Conservative 34% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 23% (+5)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Green 3% (-2)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 26 Feb

    That is a far worse poll for the Tories than the one it compares against. The threat to them in so may blue wall seats are the Lib Dems, not Labour. So a chunk upwards of my current lot is worse from a Tory seats perspective than a bigger lead for my former lot.
    There’s likely to be a large tactical vote in the blue wall . I’ll be voting Lib Dem instead of Labour and friends in Cornwall will also be doing that.

    Number one priority is to rid the country of the Tories .
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    Nigelb said:

    Who recalls this today ?
    (Apart from Vietnam of course.)

    #OTD in 1988, Chinese and Vietnamese forces enaged in a fierce skirmish over the ownership of the Johnson South Reef in the highly disputed Spratly Islands. The outgunned Vietnamese lost 3 ships and more than 60 men in the fight. China now occupies the reef and has fortified it.
    https://twitter.com/NavalInstitute/status/1635665451035361280

    It does show the continuity of Chinese policy over several decades. They're on a mission to increase their power regardless of who is in the White House.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574

    Looks like a US Reaper drone has been shot down over the Black Sea.

    Sounds more like a collision with a Russian aircraft playing the idiot.

    "Several times before the collision, the Su-27s dumped
    fuel on and flew in front of the MQ-9 in a reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner. This incident demonstrates a lack of competence
    in addition to being unsafe and unprofessional."

    https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1635684931140562959

    Fortunately, or unfortunately, the Su27 appears to have survived the collision.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,239
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Looks like a US Reaper drone has been shot down over the Black Sea.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64957792

    "Russian jet collides with US drone over Black Sea"

    That seems less than ideal..
    RAF (and USAAF?) neutralized/mitigated some V-1 buzz bombs in 1944, by gently (one presumes) nudging them with their wing tips, thus abruptly disrupting their fight paths.

    Does NOT appear that Mad Vlad's Flying Circus has achieved quite the same level of finesse?
    On the walls of country pubs across Kent there used to be, and in at least one I can think of there still is, a map of Kent with black dots indicating where such V1s fell on
    Kent. There were a lot of them. It had been a free pull out in a commemorative edition of the Kent Messenger back in the 70s.
    For those interested in said map ( @SeaShantyIrish2 ?)-

    https://www.raremaps.com/gallery/detail/67270/second-world-war-v-1-campaign-where-the-doodle-bugs-cr-kent-messanger

    Thanks for this!

    In his WWII diaries, Harold Nicholson noted that falling buzz bombs were a regular fact of life in his part of Kent, specifically Sissinghurst.

    He was mostly in London, serving as MP (and air-raid warden) but his wife, Vita Sackville-West, was on the scene pretty much full time.

    I'd have pitied the German airman unlucky enough to parachute into HER (now world-famous) garden!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    🤦‍♀️ so close

    Only one race today where the obvious/ top choice did not win , 16:50. With hindsight of course.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,853
    Nigelb said:

    Looks like a US Reaper drone has been shot down over the Black Sea.

    Sounds more like a collision with a Russian aircraft playing the idiot.

    "Several times before the collision, the Su-27s dumped
    fuel on and flew in front of the MQ-9 in a reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner. This incident demonstrates a lack of competence
    in addition to being unsafe and unprofessional."

    https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1635684931140562959

    Fortunately, or unfortunately, the Su27 appears to have survived the collision.
    Are they trying to recover it whole to pass on to the Chinese, perhaps?

    Do we know where it went down and is anyone heading there?

    https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/BLACK-SEA/ship-traffic-tracker
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    *checks betslips*

    Yep, got my arse handed to me on plate at the Gold Cup today.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793

    So - with the new format for the World Cup, the first seventy-two matches will result in a total of eight teams eliminated out of forty-eight?
    Huh.

    16? 48 down to 32?
    Ah, good point.

    A quarter of them. Still doesn't feel that exciting, really.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912

    So - with the new format for the World Cup, the first seventy-two matches will result in a total of eight teams eliminated out of forty-eight?
    Huh.

    16? 48 down to 32?
    Ah, good point.

    A quarter of them. Still doesn't feel that exciting, really.
    A third. But agree with your broader point.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,429

    So - with the new format for the World Cup, the first seventy-two matches will result in a total of eight teams eliminated out of forty-eight?
    Huh.

    16? 48 down to 32?
    Ah, good point.

    A quarter of them. Still doesn't feel that exciting, really.
    A third.
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 582
    Apologies if already posted, but on the BBC news website the announcement that John Eliot Gardiner is to conduct the music at the Coronation is being reported as Dorset Farmer to Conduct Music at Coronation. I really feel that BBC is losing the plot.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    edited March 2023

    ohnotnow said:

    Looks like a US Reaper drone has been shot down over the Black Sea.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64957792

    "Russian jet collides with US drone over Black Sea"

    That seems less than ideal..
    Far less than ideal given it would seem to have been deliberate.

    I guess the Russians are doing as badly as it appears and needed a distraction.

    Is there going to be a race to recover the wreckage?

    I quite liked the US response of it being "unprofessional and environmentally damaging" for the Russians to dump fuel in front of it, which does make it sound like they aren't going to take the bait.
    I was kind of hoping for another Operation Paul Bunyan.

    Operation Paul Bunyan was carried out on August 21 at 07:00, three days after the killings. A convoy of 23 American and South Korean vehicles ("Task Force Vierra," named after Lieutenant Colonel Victor S. Vierra, commander of the United States Army Support Group) drove into the JSA without any warning to the North Koreans, who had one observation post staffed at that hour. In the vehicles were two eight-man teams of military engineers (from the 2nd Engineer Battalion, 2nd Infantry Division) equipped with chain saws to cut down the tree.

    The teams were accompanied by two 30-man security platoons from the Joint Security Force, who were armed with pistols and axe handles. The 1st Platoon secured the northern entrance to the JSA via the Bridge of No Return, while the 2nd Platoon secured the southern edge of the area.

    Concurrently, a team from B Company, commanded by Captain Walter Seifried, had activated the detonation systems for the charges on Freedom Bridge and had the 165mm main gun of the M728 combat engineer vehicle aimed mid-span to ensure that the bridge would fall if the order was given for its destruction. Also, B Company, supporting E Company (bridge), were building M4T6 rafts on the Imjin River if the situation required emergency evacuation by that route.

    In addition, a 64-man task force of the South Korean 1st Special Forces Brigade accompanied them, armed with clubs and trained in taekwondo, supposedly without firearms. However, once they parked their trucks near the Bridge of No Return, they started throwing out the sandbags that lined the truck bottoms and handing out M16 rifles and M79 grenade launchers that had been concealed below them.[4] Several of the commandos also had M18 Claymore mines strapped to their chests with the firing mechanism in their hands, and were shouting at the North Koreans to cross the bridge.[13][14]

    A US infantry company in 20 utility helicopters and seven Cobra attack helicopters circled behind them. Behind these helicopters, B-52 Stratofortresses came from Guam escorted by US F-4 Phantom IIs from Kunsan Air Base and South Korean F-5 and F-86 fighters were visible flying across the sky at high altitude. F-4Es from Osan AB and Taegu Air Base, South Korea, F-111 bombers of the 366th Tactical Fighter Wing out of Mountain Home Air Force Base, were stationed, and F-4C and F-4D Phantoms from the 18th TFW Kadena Air Base and Clark Air Base were also deployed. The aircraft carrier USS Midway task force had also been moved to a station just offshore.


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_axe_murder_incident
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,002
    edited March 2023

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Looks like a US Reaper drone has been shot down over the Black Sea.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64957792

    "Russian jet collides with US drone over Black Sea"

    That seems less than ideal..
    RAF (and USAAF?) neutralized/mitigated some V-1 buzz bombs in 1944, by gently (one presumes) nudging them with their wing tips, thus abruptly disrupting their fight paths.

    Does NOT appear that Mad Vlad's Flying Circus has achieved quite the same level of finesse?
    On the walls of country pubs across Kent there used to be, and in at least one I can think of there still is, a map of Kent with black dots indicating where such V1s fell on
    Kent. There were a lot of them. It had been a free pull out in a commemorative edition of the Kent Messenger back in the 70s.
    For those interested in said map ( @SeaShantyIrish2 ?)-

    https://www.raremaps.com/gallery/detail/67270/second-world-war-v-1-campaign-where-the-doodle-bugs-cr-kent-messanger

    In Summer 1944 I was in the school playground on Canvey Island when a doodlebug came over and its light went out, indicating it was about to crash.
    Never saw teachers move so fast, getting us into the shelters!
    What a coincidence, it was about the same time my mother, father, sister and I, as a baby, hid under a steel table in Manchester when exactly the same thing happened and it actually fell not far away killing six of our neighbours

    I bet you and I are the only ones on this forum with this same experience
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    ClippP said:

    Drop for labour in blue wall

    Labour leads by 2% in the Blue Wall. In 2019, Labour came THIRD in these seats.

    Blue Wall Voting Intention (12 March):

    Labour 36% (-5)
    Conservative 34% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 23% (+5)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Green 3% (-2)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 26 Feb

    More than a margin of error drop for Labour.

    Maybe their position on migrants is being seen as neither fish nor fowl. EIther go hard (Tories) or go soft (LibDems)?
    Or it could be that the Lib Dems are campaigning hard ahead of the local elections, and squeezing the Labour vote where it counts.....
    Yet the LDs still well behind both the Tories and Labour in bluewall seats, in many of which they were second in 2019 or even first in the locals.

    So every vote going from LD to Labour in the bluewall helps the Conservatives
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Looks like a US Reaper drone has been shot down over the Black Sea.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64957792

    "Russian jet collides with US drone over Black Sea"

    That seems less than ideal..
    RAF (and USAAF?) neutralized/mitigated some V-1 buzz bombs in 1944, by gently (one presumes) nudging them with their wing tips, thus abruptly disrupting their fight paths.

    Does NOT appear that Mad Vlad's Flying Circus has achieved quite the same level of finesse?
    On the walls of country pubs across Kent there used to be, and in at least one I can think of there still is, a map of Kent with black dots indicating where such V1s fell on
    Kent. There were a lot of them. It had been a free pull out in a commemorative edition of the Kent Messenger back in the 70s.
    For those interested in said map ( @SeaShantyIrish2 ?)-

    https://www.raremaps.com/gallery/detail/67270/second-world-war-v-1-campaign-where-the-doodle-bugs-cr-kent-messanger

    In Summer 1944 I was in the school playground on Canvey Island when a doodlebug came over and its light went out, indicating it was about to crash.
    Never saw teachers move so fast, getting us into the shelters!
    I believe one of my grandparents uncle's was unfortunately blown up by a V1 when it hit a cafe he was eating in
This discussion has been closed.