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Nicola Sturgeon to quit – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited February 2023 in General
imageNicola Sturgeon to quit – politicalbetting.com

The SNP leader and Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is expected to resign at a press conference which is scheduled for 11 this morning.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Ding Dong....Ding Dong...
  • First Salmond, now Sturgeon, which fish-named politician will succeed her?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,733
    Sturgone !!!

    Fandabidozi...
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,702
    She's a quitter, not a fighter.
  • Alister Jack: Malleus Sturgeonorum.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,673

    I think it was @Gardenwalker who mentioned rumours about this last night (?) Neatly done.

    Been trailed for last week or two up here
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392
    Sturgeon brought down by rapists wearing lipstick.

    Who gets the gig then?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    A great day Scotland, and for the United Kingdom.

    Might go for a wee dram of the single malt this evening 🥃
  • He was interested in Everton but has changed his mind

    Billionaire Jahm Najafi set to launch $3.75bn takeover bid for Tottenham Hotspur

    https://www.ft.com/content/c3795725-eb77-4681-848d-20c37c990386
  • Big shout out to The Scotch Experts.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,733

    Sturgeon brought down by rapists wearing lipstick.

    Who gets the gig then?

    The Men in Grey Kilts, who may have been women, you can never tell these days...
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    edited February 2023
    malcolmg said:

    I think it was @Gardenwalker who mentioned rumours about this last night (?) Neatly done.

    Been trailed for last week or two up here
    Perhaps - I have to say it's passed me by malcolm. But I can't say I'm unhappy with it, though I'm probably happy with it for different reasons than most here. She had become more of a roadblock to independence than an asset.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    A fresh new leader, with a positive optimistic case for Independence, might be just what the SNP and the Independence campaign need at this time.

    A lot depends on who will win through to replace her.
  • He was interested in Everton but has changed his mind

    Billionaire Jahm Najafi set to launch $3.75bn takeover bid for Tottenham Hotspur

    https://www.ft.com/content/c3795725-eb77-4681-848d-20c37c990386

    Has he seen the Paddy Power advert taking the pee out of Spurs?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZuMSXalq78
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,847
    Rather swamps the Jez news.
  • https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1625776125438840833

    Ipsos net satisfaction, 20 months before elections in May 1997 and possibly Oct 2024: big difference is rating for opposition leader
  • Heard her speak once and she was very impressive.

    End of era, but have no idea what comes next and who it favors.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    Good riddance.
  • It will be interesting to hear the reasons she gives. I’m guessing the long litany of duff legislation (Named Persons, Hate Speech which the Polis can’t implement, the Children’s rights, referendum and GRR ultra vires) or failed projects (Ferries, dualing the A9) won’t be among them. I think we can be reasonably confident that it’ll be someone else’s fault.

    On a human level you’ve got to feel some sympathy - it’s a gruelling job and when she eschewed point scoring over Westminster during COVID she did well, better than her peers. I suspect like all politicians in power for a long time with no internal opponents worth the name she just stopped listening. Hence the daft (Green inspired) GRR and half baked Deposit scheme.

    Two winners today.

    Keir Starmer and the United Kingdom.
  • It would be wonderful if the SNP were nearly wiped out.

    So far we have had a splinter group separate off which is largely a personality vehicle for Alex Salmond. That group has had zero impact on the SNP's prospects.

    But, if the coming leadership campaign highlights big differences inside the SNP and the leadership election is messy, there is the potential for it to break apart. So its definitely more likely with her going than it was with her staying.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited February 2023

    A fresh new leader, with a positive optimistic case for Independence, might be just what the SNP and the Independence campaign need at this time.

    A lot depends on who will win through to replace her.

    Which, among the cavalcade of wit & beauty of SNP MSPs do you think might fit the bill?
  • kinabalu said:

    Rather swamps the Jez news.

    Hills and Corals go 8/1 against Jeremy Corbyn as next London Mayor, with Sadiq odds-on.
  • kinabalu said:

    Rather swamps the Jez news.

    A terrible conspiracy against the people's princess.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    Krankies going back on the road?
  • Hubris.

    Watch the Police Scotland inquiry into possible fraud involving a loan by her husband and some allegedly missing SNP money. Will Mr Murrell remain the SNP's CEO?

    Kate Forbes is due to come back from maternity leave shortly. Interesting timing.
  • Less than four weeks ago, Nicola Sturgeon was asked about her own future after Jacinda Ardern announced her resignation.

    Ms Sturgeon said that she was "nowhere near" ready to quit as First Minister.




    https://twitter.com/LewisMcKenzie94/status/1625809353574957057
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    Perhaps Sturgeon just wants her independence.
  • Less than four weeks ago, Nicola Sturgeon was asked about her own future after Jacinda Ardern announced her resignation.

    Ms Sturgeon said that she was "nowhere near" ready to quit as First Minister.




    https://twitter.com/LewisMcKenzie94/status/1625809353574957057

    A clear case of MRDA. Which leader is ever going to say they are weighing up whether to hand in their notice?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,530
    The Corbyn news is quite risky for Labour .

    What if disgruntled Corbyn supporters decide to set up a new party . Or if Corbyn does . Of course they would do that in the knowledge that they would likely facilitate another Tory government .
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,213
    This may benefit the Indy cause in the long term (who the fuck knows) but in the short term it’s a massive blow

    The SNP had two remarkable leaders in a row and between them they almost managed to break up the United Kingdom. I can’t see any similarly charismatic figure able to get near that achievement for a while

    They probably need a spell in opposition and a batch of new ideas: as well as a new leader. Aim for a new Indy vote in the 2030s
  • nico679 said:

    The Corbyn news is quite risky for Labour .

    What if disgruntled Corbyn supporters decide to set up a new party . Or if Corbyn does . Of course they would do that in the knowledge that they would likely facilitate another Tory government .

    No it isn't. These people are totally irrelevant
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,252
    AlistairM said:
    Some of those likely Covid - be interesting to compare with rest of UK. For example, academic outcomes probably widened by Covid, I would expect (kids at home, more middle class parents at home and likely better equipped to home-school?). Also life expectancy, quite probably? GP satisfaction too, maybe.

    Drugs one pretty stark, but again needs other comparisons (has there been displacement from alcohol, for example?)
  • nico679 said:

    The Corbyn news is quite risky for Labour .

    What if disgruntled Corbyn supporters decide to set up a new party . Or if Corbyn does . Of course they would do that in the knowledge that they would likely facilitate another Tory government .

    I think Starmer would like nothing more than that.
  • nico679 said:

    The Corbyn news is quite risky for Labour .

    What if disgruntled Corbyn supporters decide to set up a new party . Or if Corbyn does . Of course they would do that in the knowledge that they would likely facilitate another Tory government .

    Won't happen but Starmer does risk spilling votes to the Greens and elsewhere. As posted, Corbyn is second best in the London Mayor betting but his age predicates against standing.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,733
    Leon said:

    This may benefit the Indy cause in the long term (who the fuck knows) but in the short term it’s a massive blow

    The civil war within the Indy movement is unlikely to develop necessarily to the advantage of the cause...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1625776125438840833

    Ipsos net satisfaction, 20 months before elections in May 1997 and possibly Oct 2024: big difference is rating for opposition leader

    That's a pretty clear sign of what's going to happen at the next election.

    Government/PM done for but current LOTO no where near as popular as LOTO in 1995 so Labour win and form the next government but no landslide this time.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    nico679 said:

    The Corbyn news is quite risky for Labour .

    What if disgruntled Corbyn supporters decide to set up a new party . Or if Corbyn does . Of course they would do that in the knowledge that they would likely facilitate another Tory government .

    Nah, the lesson of the Corbyn experiment is that there aren't enough of those people to make a difference. And to floating voters, if they do it it will just show that Sir Keir made the right decision.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited February 2023
    Nicola Sturgeon has committed to serving a full five-year term if re-elected as Scotland’s First Minister - but declined to say if she may run for another term in office after that.
    The SNP leader, who has been First Minister since 2014, said she was “putting herself forward for a full term of office” in the post.

    That would see her serving almost 12 years at the head of the Scottish Government – longer than the 11 years Margaret Thatcher spent in Downing Street as Tory prime minister.


    https://archive.ph/1hNSA

  • Is this where Jeremy Corbyn discovers that he has a long lost Scottish grannie?

    Jezbollah looking for a new party and the SNP looking for a new leader. On the same morning. GET IT DONE.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    edited February 2023
    nico679 said:

    The Corbyn news is quite risky for Labour .

    What if disgruntled Corbyn supporters decide to set up a new party . Or if Corbyn does . Of course they would do that in the knowledge that they would likely facilitate another Tory government .

    He might as well have a crack at Islington. Even if it goes horribly wrong and someone comes through the middle, it’s not going to give rise to a Tory Government. Plus he gets to be a figure head for the movement in Parliament if he wins. Less great for Labour in five years time if his vehicle (I assume he’ll have gone) has 10% in the polls nationally.

    But that’s not a today problem for Starmer, and without Corbyn he improves his chances of a proper majority I guess, because he can bat away any “you stood with Corbyn” stuff with “I sacked him”.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    GIN1138 said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1625776125438840833

    Ipsos net satisfaction, 20 months before elections in May 1997 and possibly Oct 2024: big difference is rating for opposition leader

    That's a pretty clear sign of what's going to happen at the next election.

    Government/PM done for but current LOTO no where near as popular as LOTO in 1995 so Labour win and form the next government but no landslide this time.
    They're also starting from much further back (about 70-80 seats fewer in 2019 than 1992 IIRC?)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,608
    edited February 2023

    nico679 said:

    The Corbyn news is quite risky for Labour .

    What if disgruntled Corbyn supporters decide to set up a new party . Or if Corbyn does . Of course they would do that in the knowledge that they would likely facilitate another Tory government .

    No it isn't. These people are totally irrelevant
    The Starmer Is A Tory types are already voting Green. At least in the opinion polls.

    EDIT: Corbyn is Labour Until I Die. If he left the party, it would destroy a big part of his story. I don't see that happening.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,749
    edited February 2023

    A fresh new leader, with a positive optimistic case for Independence, might be just what the SNP and the Independence campaign need at this time.

    A lot depends on who will win through to replace her.

    Which, among the cavalcade of wit & beauty of SNP MSPs do you think might fit the bill?
    I have a feeling it’s the dodgy party finances, particularly her husband’s recently disclosed loan that was the final straw.

    Angus Robertson would seem to be the anointed successor, but I’ve got a couple of small bets on Keith Brown, and Ash Regan as an outsider if the party faithful repudiate the GRR legacy entirely.

    Edit: could the Salmond trial claim a final victim?

    Also, wither the Scottish Green Party in all of this?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    A fresh new leader, with a positive optimistic case for Independence, might be just what the SNP and the Independence campaign need at this time.

    A lot depends on who will win through to replace her.

    Which, among the cavalcade of wit & beauty of SNP MSPs do you think might fit the bill?
    I haven't the faintest clue. If you can think of a likely lad or lass then do please share.
  • Prof John Curtice “Nicola Sturgeon SNP’s most effective communicator by far, no obvious successor.”
  • Driver said:

    GIN1138 said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1625776125438840833

    Ipsos net satisfaction, 20 months before elections in May 1997 and possibly Oct 2024: big difference is rating for opposition leader

    That's a pretty clear sign of what's going to happen at the next election.

    Government/PM done for but current LOTO no where near as popular as LOTO in 1995 so Labour win and form the next government but no landslide this time.
    They're also starting from much further back (about 70-80 seats fewer in 2019 than 1992 IIRC?)
    Yes. Around 200 now compared with around 270 1992. LAB win with small majority most likely.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339

    Prof John Curtice “Nicola Sturgeon SNP’s most effective communicator by far, no obvious successor.”

    As someone who doesn’t live in Scotland and isn’t a natural SNP voter, I still always thought Angus Robertson was a good speaker when he was at Westminster.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    I guess people are celebrating here because a popular and somewhat effective leader has been removed.

    Anyway should benefit Labour. Anas Sarwar has more name recognition than any of Nicola Sturgeon's potential successors.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    edited February 2023
    My favourite Sturgeon stat.

    She lost more MPs (net) at the 2017 GE than Theresa May did despite having nearly 270 fewer MPs.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339

    Driver said:

    GIN1138 said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1625776125438840833

    Ipsos net satisfaction, 20 months before elections in May 1997 and possibly Oct 2024: big difference is rating for opposition leader

    That's a pretty clear sign of what's going to happen at the next election.

    Government/PM done for but current LOTO no where near as popular as LOTO in 1995 so Labour win and form the next government but no landslide this time.
    They're also starting from much further back (about 70-80 seats fewer in 2019 than 1992 IIRC?)
    Yes. Around 200 now compared with around 270 1992. LAB win with small majority most likely.
    Yup. Huge achievement in historical context, but bitter sweet as Starmer “feels” weak from the start and the Tories are left well set for a come back under the likes of Boris.
  • sarissa said:

    A fresh new leader, with a positive optimistic case for Independence, might be just what the SNP and the Independence campaign need at this time.

    A lot depends on who will win through to replace her.

    Which, among the cavalcade of wit & beauty of SNP MSPs do you think might fit the bill?
    I have a feeling it’s the dodgy party finances, particularly her husband’s recently disclosed loan that was the final straw.

    Angus Robertson would seem to be the anointed successor, but I’ve got a couple of small bets on Keith Brown, and Ash Regan as an outsider if the party faithful repudiate the GRR legacy entirely.

    Edit: could the Salmond trial claim a final victim?

    Also, wither the Scottish Green Party in all of this?
    Angus Robertson was very effective in Westminster and is former Depute Leader of the party. Perhaps a safe pair of hands if someone is needed as an interim, but wouldn't Keith Brown his successor have something to say about that?

    Mind you I have just had to google who Brown is...
  • A fresh new leader, with a positive optimistic case for Independence, might be just what the SNP and the Independence campaign need at this time.

    A lot depends on who will win through to replace her.

    Which, among the cavalcade of wit & beauty of SNP MSPs do you think might fit the bill?
    I haven't the faintest clue. If you can think of a likely lad or lass then do please share.
    As mentioned by @sarissa upthread Angus Robertson is probably the most experienced, but Kate Forbes is seen by some as a “coming figure” - though her religious views saw her steer well clear of the GRR bill and as a young mother may have other priorities.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    nico679 said:

    The Corbyn news is quite risky for Labour .

    What if disgruntled Corbyn supporters decide to set up a new party . Or if Corbyn does . Of course they would do that in the knowledge that they would likely facilitate another Tory government .

    They'll quietly bide their time.

    Lets say Labour only has a majority if 5-10 seats after the next election. Suddenly the votes of Corbyn supporters will become important on many "knife edge" votes...
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,800
    biggles said:

    Prof John Curtice “Nicola Sturgeon SNP’s most effective communicator by far, no obvious successor.”

    As someone who doesn’t live in Scotland and isn’t a natural SNP voter, I still always thought Angus Robertson was a good speaker when he was at Westminster.
    So you're the one.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,673

    malcolmg said:

    I think it was @Gardenwalker who mentioned rumours about this last night (?) Neatly done.

    Been trailed for last week or two up here
    Perhaps - I have to say it's passed me by malcolm. But I can't say I'm unhappy with it, though I'm probably happy with it for different reasons than most here. She had become more of a roadblock to independence than an asset.
    For sure and big thing will be who replaces her, hopefully someone really wanting independence who will clear out her dead wood ministers and bin the weirdo greens asap. So not Macbeth and I think Forbes hiding on GRR will have done for her. So Flynn , Cherry and ??
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,673
    FF43 said:

    I guess people are celebrating here because a popular and somewhat effective leader has been removed.

    Anyway should benefit Labour. Anas Sarwar has more name recognition than any of Nicola Sturgeon's potential successors.

    LOL , he is your real deal duffer, an invisible no user sock puppet of London. NOT a chance.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,673
    biggles said:

    Prof John Curtice “Nicola Sturgeon SNP’s most effective communicator by far, no obvious successor.”

    As someone who doesn’t live in Scotland and isn’t a natural SNP voter, I still always thought Angus Robertson was a good speaker when he was at Westminster.
    Hopefully Macbeth does not get near it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    A fresh new leader, with a positive optimistic case for Independence, might be just what the SNP and the Independence campaign need at this time.

    A lot depends on who will win through to replace her.

    Which, among the cavalcade of wit & beauty of SNP MSPs do you think might fit the bill?
    I haven't the faintest clue. If you can think of a likely lad or lass then do please share.
    As mentioned by @sarissa upthread Angus Robertson is probably the most experienced, but Kate Forbes is seen by some as a “coming figure” - though her religious views saw her steer well clear of the GRR bill and as a young mother may have other priorities.
    Forbes is still only 32 - surely too young and inexperienced for the top job this time around?
  • So she's resigning to campaign for Corbyn in Islington. I knew it!
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,179
    A few thoughts on the post Sturgeon world. Firstly this does not have the feeling of a long planned move, not least because the presser was "hurriedly arranged" and there really is no obvious successor. The announcement has come only a few weeks after the FM categorically denied having any intention to go.

    So what changed? I think the GRA has been bitter, but Surgeon seemed to be facing it down a bit. So is it the luke-warm support for making the next GE a "de facto referendum" on indy? Again, she is quite capable of toughing things out. Is it worries about the campaign finance allegations against her husband? Not stopped her up until now. Is she afraid that the slight fall off in Nat support in the polls becomes a sustained decline?

    The Nats have been on the back foot for a while, and the sense of invulnerability they used to have has clearly been punctured. May be quitting while ahead might give her greater influence with a weaker successor than if the setback came on her watch and she had to take the blame.

    In any event it opens up an opportunity for Labour (and actually the Lib Dems too). There are a couple of local by elections coming up, lets see if they give any sense of direction.
  • GIN1138 said:

    nico679 said:

    The Corbyn news is quite risky for Labour .

    What if disgruntled Corbyn supporters decide to set up a new party . Or if Corbyn does . Of course they would do that in the knowledge that they would likely facilitate another Tory government .

    They'll quietly bide their time.

    Lets say Labour only has a majority if 5-10 seats after the next election. Suddenly the votes of Corbyn supporters will become important on many "knife edge" votes...
    There's a lot of hard left still sitting on the LAB backbenches!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,673
    sarissa said:

    A fresh new leader, with a positive optimistic case for Independence, might be just what the SNP and the Independence campaign need at this time.

    A lot depends on who will win through to replace her.

    Which, among the cavalcade of wit & beauty of SNP MSPs do you think might fit the bill?
    I have a feeling it’s the dodgy party finances, particularly her husband’s recently disclosed loan that was the final straw.

    Angus Robertson would seem to be the anointed successor, but I’ve got a couple of small bets on Keith Brown, and Ash Regan as an outsider if the party faithful repudiate the GRR legacy entirely.

    Edit: could the Salmond trial claim a final victim?

    Also, wither the Scottish Green Party in all of this?
    Hopefully Salmond trial will claim a good few more victims when all comes out
    Hopefully Macbeth as per does not get it
    Hopefully the weirdo useless Greens are binned
  • Sandpit said:

    A fresh new leader, with a positive optimistic case for Independence, might be just what the SNP and the Independence campaign need at this time.

    A lot depends on who will win through to replace her.

    Which, among the cavalcade of wit & beauty of SNP MSPs do you think might fit the bill?
    I haven't the faintest clue. If you can think of a likely lad or lass then do please share.
    As mentioned by @sarissa upthread Angus Robertson is probably the most experienced, but Kate Forbes is seen by some as a “coming figure” - though her religious views saw her steer well clear of the GRR bill and as a young mother may have other priorities.
    Forbes is still only 32 - surely too young and inexperienced for the top job this time around?
    Yes - had Sturgeon made it to the next election Forbes would have been a more obvious choice as successor in a planned transition.
  • She really isn't going down without sounding very very pompous.
  • Residents of Strichen have made a noise complaint to Aberdeenshire Council following reports of the number of champagne corks popping

    https://twitter.com/murdo_fraser/status/1625803117953486849?s=46&t=qvGlHEE2pJTTGoam53Fz_g

    Murdo did a funny.

    They've complained enough times at the large YES sign in his garden.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,781

    A fresh new leader, with a positive optimistic case for Independence, might be just what the SNP and the Independence campaign need at this time.

    A lot depends on who will win through to replace her.

    Which, among the cavalcade of wit & beauty of SNP MSPs do you think might fit the bill?
    I haven't the faintest clue. If you can think of a likely lad or lass then do please share.
    As mentioned by @sarissa upthread Angus Robertson is probably the most experienced, but Kate Forbes is seen by some as a “coming figure” - though her religious views saw her steer well clear of the GRR bill and as a young mother may have other priorities.
    My understanding that it was Robertson as continuity Sturgeon, Forbes as someone a bit different. Forbes is very well thought of up north, but not really part of the central belt set.

    Ben Macpherson?
  • Nicola Sturgeon to step down after a new SNP is leader elected with process starting now - so, far sooner than expected

    https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1625815207485267968
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    Cicero said:

    A few thoughts on the post Sturgeon world. Firstly this does not have the feeling of a long planned move, not least because the presser was "hurriedly arranged" and there really is no obvious successor. The announcement has come only a few weeks after the FM categorically denied having any intention to go.

    So what changed? I think the GRA has been bitter, but Surgeon seemed to be facing it down a bit. So is it the luke-warm support for making the next GE a "de facto referendum" on indy? Again, she is quite capable of toughing things out. Is it worries about the campaign finance allegations against her husband? Not stopped her up until now. Is she afraid that the slight fall off in Nat support in the polls becomes a sustained decline?

    The Nats have been on the back foot for a while, and the sense of invulnerability they used to have has clearly been punctured. May be quitting while ahead might give her greater influence with a weaker successor than if the setback came on her watch and she had to take the blame.

    In any event it opens up an opportunity for Labour (and actually the Lib Dems too). There are a couple of local by elections coming up, lets see if they give any sense of direction.

    My best guess at the moment is that there are quite a few little things starting to mount up, none of which is yet significant to force her to resign, but combined they may be having the effect of her concluding that if she doesn't resign now, she may not get the option to resign of her own volition later.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,673
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    This may benefit the Indy cause in the long term (who the fuck knows) but in the short term it’s a massive blow

    The civil war within the Indy movement is unlikely to develop necessarily to the advantage of the cause...
    Depends who gets the gig Scott, clear the decks and then force a Scottish election would be fun.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,673
    Leon said:

    This may benefit the Indy cause in the long term (who the fuck knows) but in the short term it’s a massive blow

    The SNP had two remarkable leaders in a row and between them they almost managed to break up the United Kingdom. I can’t see any similarly charismatic figure able to get near that achievement for a while

    They probably need a spell in opposition and a batch of new ideas: as well as a new leader. Aim for a new Indy vote in the 2030s

    Not a chance in hell of them being the opposition any time soon
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    She never uses 1 word when 50 will do instead.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    Get a sense the SNP is about to descend into massive infighting. She is such a loss to them
  • Did she actually say, there are people in scotland which love me'..

    She is still high on her own supply
  • I expect significant gains for LAB in Scotland at the next GE. I have been saying that for a while now. Not sure that Sturgeon's departure will make a great deal of difference.

    Maybe 15 to 20 seats.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,747
    edited February 2023
    .
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    I think it was @Gardenwalker who mentioned rumours about this last night (?) Neatly done.

    Been trailed for last week or two up here
    Perhaps - I have to say it's passed me by malcolm. But I can't say I'm unhappy with it, though I'm probably happy with it for different reasons than most here. She had become more of a roadblock to independence than an asset.
    For sure and big thing will be who replaces her, hopefully someone really wanting independence who will clear out her dead wood ministers and bin the weirdo greens asap. So not Macbeth and I think Forbes hiding on GRR will have done for her. So Flynn , Cherry and ??
    Has to be someone in Holyrood so not Flynn or Cherry (no personal support for the latter anyway).
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    She's just had enough
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    This may benefit the Indy cause in the long term (who the fuck knows) but in the short term it’s a massive blow

    The SNP had two remarkable leaders in a row and between them they almost managed to break up the United Kingdom. I can’t see any similarly charismatic figure able to get near that achievement for a while

    They probably need a spell in opposition and a batch of new ideas: as well as a new leader. Aim for a new Indy vote in the 2030s

    Not a chance in hell of them being the opposition any time soon
    Labour just behind them at the Scottish election. Labour gets the LibDems on board and the Tories (if there still are any) sit on their hands and allow a unionist Gvt to form?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    FPT: I've been de-threaded twice today. Too many threads !

    It would be wonderful if the SNP were nearly wiped out.

    So far we have had a splinter group separate off which is largely a personality vehicle for Alex Salmond. That group has had zero impact on the SNP's prospects.

    But, if the coming leadership campaign highlights big differences inside the SNP and the leadership election is messy, there is the potential for it to break apart. So its definitely more likely with her going than it was with her staying.
    The moment for me that defined Sturgeon was her arrogant response to the Parliamentary enquiry, and therefore to the Scottish Parliament - withhold evidence for months and months, then supply a huge pack of it a couple of hours before the hearing so that proper questioning was rendered impossible.

    You can point to things such as the Scottish Nationalist Ferries being built in Poland, and any number of other wheels that have come off, but that I think is peripheral by comparison.

    Why now? Does this have something to do with how many members have left the SNP over the current leadership weaponising Gender Rights, plus whatever the latest dithering is on Indyref2?

    I think we are in the political party reporting season, so any fall in membership will come out in public. Daily Record (not SNP supporters) reported last weekend up to 30k lost members, which would put current membership at 35-40% down on 2019.
    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/snp-crisis-30000-people-cancel-29193882

    I think two larger issues are whether the Unionist parties can get their shit together enough to deal with a weakened SNP, ditto for Alba, and the Scottish Parliamentary system needing a major service. That last might be one for Starmer, given that he is a bit of a colourless technocrat.
  • Get a sense the SNP is about to descend into massive infighting. She is such a loss to them

    And that is the Big Opportunity for opposing parties like my own. That the SNP expends so much energy fighting amongst its different factions that it does lasting damage to itself if not splitting apart properly.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    Strikes me as an incredibly arrogant resignation speech. No humility on display whatsoever.
  • .

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    I think it was @Gardenwalker who mentioned rumours about this last night (?) Neatly done.

    Been trailed for last week or two up here
    Perhaps - I have to say it's passed me by malcolm. But I can't say I'm unhappy with it, though I'm probably happy with it for different reasons than most here. She had become more of a roadblock to independence than an asset.
    For sure and big thing will be who replaces her, hopefully someone really wanting independence who will clear out her dead wood ministers and bin the weirdo greens asap. So not Macbeth and I think Forbes hiding on GRR will have done for her. So Flynn , Cherry and ??
    Has to be someone in Holyrood so not Flynn or Cherry (no personal support for the latter anyway).
    I wished it was Cherry.

    The puns and single entendres I could make with that surname.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    edited February 2023
    Next first minister - William Hill
    ..
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,673

    It will be interesting to hear the reasons she gives. I’m guessing the long litany of duff legislation (Named Persons, Hate Speech which the Polis can’t implement, the Children’s rights, referendum and GRR ultra vires) or failed projects (Ferries, dualing the A9) won’t be among them. I think we can be reasonably confident that it’ll be someone else’s fault.

    On a human level you’ve got to feel some sympathy - it’s a gruelling job and when she eschewed point scoring over Westminster during COVID she did well, better than her peers. I suspect like all politicians in power for a long time with no internal opponents worth the name she just stopped listening. Hence the daft (Green inspired) GRR and half baked Deposit scheme.

    Two winners today.

    Keir Starmer and the United Kingdom.

    You can only knife so many people before someone gets you , lots of things were starting to come to a head so I think she got out before it got worse.
    Interesting that the clown who was a close acolyte and claimed Russia had hacked him recently , only for Craig Murray to say he had seen them all and it was not Russia and stated he would print as many as he could once he had legal clearance to avoid them jailing him again. One wonders given the amount of e-mails and whatsapps they have kept hidden / lost , had embargoed etc if finally they were stuffed by that. Perhaps just co-incidence.
  • AlistairM said:

    Strikes me as an incredibly arrogant resignation speech. No humility on display whatsoever.

    Agreed- the notion that politics is too 'tribal' from a nationalist politician sticks in the jaw somewhat
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    Driver said:

    Cicero said:

    A few thoughts on the post Sturgeon world. Firstly this does not have the feeling of a long planned move, not least because the presser was "hurriedly arranged" and there really is no obvious successor. The announcement has come only a few weeks after the FM categorically denied having any intention to go.

    So what changed? I think the GRA has been bitter, but Surgeon seemed to be facing it down a bit. So is it the luke-warm support for making the next GE a "de facto referendum" on indy? Again, she is quite capable of toughing things out. Is it worries about the campaign finance allegations against her husband? Not stopped her up until now. Is she afraid that the slight fall off in Nat support in the polls becomes a sustained decline?

    The Nats have been on the back foot for a while, and the sense of invulnerability they used to have has clearly been punctured. May be quitting while ahead might give her greater influence with a weaker successor than if the setback came on her watch and she had to take the blame.

    In any event it opens up an opportunity for Labour (and actually the Lib Dems too). There are a couple of local by elections coming up, lets see if they give any sense of direction.

    My best guess at the moment is that there are quite a few little things starting to mount up, none of which is yet significant to force her to resign, but combined they may be having the effect of her concluding that if she doesn't resign now, she may not get the option to resign of her own volition later.
    Sturgeon has faced a certain degree of growing disquiet about her strategy for a second Independence referendum for a while. She may have simply concluded that her strategy has hit a bit of a brick wall, and now might be a good time for the party to agree on a new way forward - particularly as the seeming inevitability of a Labour government at Westminster changes the context in which the campaign for independence is fought.

    I think she's done the SNP a favour with the timing - but it remains to be seen what use the party will put it to.
  • DJ41aDJ41a Posts: 174
    82000 signed George Galloway's petition calling for Sturgeon to resign, equivalent to 800,000 in England:

    "As #ResignSturgeon trends across social media, it has become clear that Nicola Sturgeon and her government are utterly incapable of working for the best interests of the Scottish people and Scotland.

    Day after day, we hear of more lurid scandals emerging from Holyrood.

    Be it literally ruining the futures of our children in the SQA results scandal, slandering Douglas Ross and claiming he is a ‘racist’, lying over secret meetings with Alex Salmond, the Coronavirus care homes scandal, the cover-up over the Coronavirus outbreak at Nike, the drug death scandal, the Hate Crime bill, the Derek MacKay scandal or the complete silence on racist nationalists at the border calling for England to ‘get out of Scotland’.

    In the interest of all Scots, it’s time for Nicola Sturgeon to do the right thing - resign, and allow a cross-party government of unity take over to see Scotland through this dark time - created after 13 years of SNP misrule.
    "

    Lock her up.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,213
    Quite a weird statement
  • Barnesian said:

    She's just had enough

    Haven't we all?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,179

    Get a sense the SNP is about to descend into massive infighting. She is such a loss to them

    And that is the Big Opportunity for opposing parties like my own. That the SNP expends so much energy fighting amongst its different factions that it does lasting damage to itself if not splitting apart properly.
    Also the rumours of significant financial problems for the SNP are not going away, A fractious internecine fight could cause some real permanent harm to the Nats.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,213
    She’s doesn’t understand that people fear and loathe her because she is trying to destroy the United Kingdom. Of course she is polarising. What does she expect?

    Self-serving short-sighted mince
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    Cicero said:

    A few thoughts on the post Sturgeon world. Firstly this does not have the feeling of a long planned move, not least because the presser was "hurriedly arranged" and there really is no obvious successor. The announcement has come only a few weeks after the FM categorically denied having any intention to go.

    So what changed? I think the GRA has been bitter, but Surgeon seemed to be facing it down a bit. So is it the luke-warm support for making the next GE a "de facto referendum" on indy? Again, she is quite capable of toughing things out. Is it worries about the campaign finance allegations against her husband? Not stopped her up until now. Is she afraid that the slight fall off in Nat support in the polls becomes a sustained decline?

    The Nats have been on the back foot for a while, and the sense of invulnerability they used to have has clearly been punctured. May be quitting while ahead might give her greater influence with a weaker successor than if the setback came on her watch and she had to take the blame.

    In any event it opens up an opportunity for Labour (and actually the Lib Dems too). There are a couple of local by elections coming up, lets see if they give any sense of direction.

    I suspect Sturgeon was planning to go in 2024, three years into her term and two years ahead of the next election, which is a normal point for leaders to stand down mid-term. Clearly her departure has been accelerated. She could have stayed on until next year but I guess she doesn't see the point.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    edited February 2023
    Is this the longest resignation speech ever? She's just going on a ramble.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    edited February 2023
    Barnesian said:

    Next first minister - William Hill
    ..

    The money is going on to Robertson.


  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,673
    Barnesian said:

    Next first minister - William Hill
    ..

    None of above
This discussion has been closed.