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Nicola Sturgeon to quit – politicalbetting.com

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  • My Scottish wife has just said this speech is pathetic
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,309
    Ok shut the fuck up now you stunted lesbian robot
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,163

    nico679 said:

    The Corbyn news is quite risky for Labour .

    What if disgruntled Corbyn supporters decide to set up a new party . Or if Corbyn does . Of course they would do that in the knowledge that they would likely facilitate another Tory government .

    No it isn't. These people are totally irrelevant
    There are 35 sitting Labour MPs - nearly 1 in 5 - in the Socialist Campaign Group.

    If they want it, there are enough to have a significant voice.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329
    FF43 said:

    Cicero said:

    A few thoughts on the post Sturgeon world. Firstly this does not have the feeling of a long planned move, not least because the presser was "hurriedly arranged" and there really is no obvious successor. The announcement has come only a few weeks after the FM categorically denied having any intention to go.

    So what changed? I think the GRA has been bitter, but Surgeon seemed to be facing it down a bit. So is it the luke-warm support for making the next GE a "de facto referendum" on indy? Again, she is quite capable of toughing things out. Is it worries about the campaign finance allegations against her husband? Not stopped her up until now. Is she afraid that the slight fall off in Nat support in the polls becomes a sustained decline?

    The Nats have been on the back foot for a while, and the sense of invulnerability they used to have has clearly been punctured. May be quitting while ahead might give her greater influence with a weaker successor than if the setback came on her watch and she had to take the blame.

    In any event it opens up an opportunity for Labour (and actually the Lib Dems too). There are a couple of local by elections coming up, lets see if they give any sense of direction.

    I suspect Sturgeon was planning to go in 2024, three years into her term and two years ahead of the next election, which is a normal point for leaders to stand down mid-term. Clearly her departure has been accelerated. She could have stayed on until next year but I guess she doesn't see the point.
    She had promised election by October 2023 , she had to either do that or get out and she obviously was not prepared to have an election. Plus the chickens are likely to be coming home to roost.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329
    Leon said:

    She’s doesn’t understand that people fear and loathe her because she is trying to destroy the United Kingdom. Of course she is polarising. What does she expect?

    Self-serving short-sighted mince

    Why would she care what the UK plebs outside Scotland think.
  • If the SNP had any sense they’d get Alex Salmond to replace Nicola Sturgeon.

    It would be a sure fire winner.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Its no harbinger of a unionist rising Phoenix but I think people are allowed to celebrate the end of an opponents career, willing or otherwise. I remember that ridiculous criticism of Sturgeon celebrating Swinson losing her seat.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,309
    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    She’s doesn’t understand that people fear and loathe her because she is trying to destroy the United Kingdom. Of course she is polarising. What does she expect?

    Self-serving short-sighted mince

    Why would she care what the UK plebs outside Scotland think.
    Because half of Scotland also thinks this
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,831
    Can anyone explain to me why the IMF are projecting the Russian economy to grow this year? Seems weird since the energy sanctions have only just come in. Most of the government expenditure in January was borrowing. Will they be able to keep indebting themselves in the medium term?
  • Sturgeon’s reasons:

    - Not a reaction to short term pressures (they’re always there)
    - Longer term assessment “is carrying on right for me, for country, party, independence”?
    - Giving everything of yourself to your job is only way to do it - takes its toll on you & those around you. Only recently taken account of that.
    - Blocking SINDYRef “democratic outrage” - so “pretendyref” is her view of way ahead - and Conference will decide - but I wouldn’t be there to implement it.
    - Believes there is majority support for independence - but to solidify need new leader to reach across to undecided/unpersuaded.
    - Issues being distorted by Sturgeon’s entrenched image, so her not being there will help improve debate.
    - Continuing in politics - young children & independence - will be there as independence is won.
    - Cause of independence bigger than any one individual.
    - List of improvements in Scotland.
    - Going to back benches.
    - (Fact checkers will be poring over this list…)
    - Thanks husband & family, SNP, people of Scotland

    TLDR : “personal reasons”.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329
    Driver said:

    Cicero said:

    A few thoughts on the post Sturgeon world. Firstly this does not have the feeling of a long planned move, not least because the presser was "hurriedly arranged" and there really is no obvious successor. The announcement has come only a few weeks after the FM categorically denied having any intention to go.

    So what changed? I think the GRA has been bitter, but Surgeon seemed to be facing it down a bit. So is it the luke-warm support for making the next GE a "de facto referendum" on indy? Again, she is quite capable of toughing things out. Is it worries about the campaign finance allegations against her husband? Not stopped her up until now. Is she afraid that the slight fall off in Nat support in the polls becomes a sustained decline?

    The Nats have been on the back foot for a while, and the sense of invulnerability they used to have has clearly been punctured. May be quitting while ahead might give her greater influence with a weaker successor than if the setback came on her watch and she had to take the blame.

    In any event it opens up an opportunity for Labour (and actually the Lib Dems too). There are a couple of local by elections coming up, lets see if they give any sense of direction.

    My best guess at the moment is that there are quite a few little things starting to mount up, none of which is yet significant to force her to resign, but combined they may be having the effect of her concluding that if she doesn't resign now, she may not get the option to resign of her own volition later.
    Spot on
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Seriously, when is she going to stop? All about her, her, her.
  • Seems like people who don't like Nicola Sturgeon didn't like her resignation speech.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    .
    MattW said:

    nico679 said:

    The Corbyn news is quite risky for Labour .

    What if disgruntled Corbyn supporters decide to set up a new party . Or if Corbyn does . Of course they would do that in the knowledge that they would likely facilitate another Tory government .

    No it isn't. These people are totally irrelevant
    There are 35 sitting Labour MPs - nearly 1 in 5 - in the Socialist Campaign Group.

    If they want it, there are enough to have a significant voice.
    And enough to give Sir Keir major problems if he doesn't get the electorate's consent for his programme.
  • kicorsekicorse Posts: 434
    edited February 2023
    Sturgeon is an impressive figure in public appearances, and it's been easy to forget that not everyone in the Scottish independence movement is as sensible as her. In particular, she's managed to show that wanting independence is not the same thing as hating the English. If the more jingoistic part of the SNP get control, then they'll destroy their chances of winning any referendum they get.
  • AlistairM said:

    Seriously, when is she going to stop? All about her, her, her.

    Listening isn’t compulsory. You can be reassured that she’s not speaking to or for you.
  • .

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    I think it was @Gardenwalker who mentioned rumours about this last night (?) Neatly done.

    Been trailed for last week or two up here
    Perhaps - I have to say it's passed me by malcolm. But I can't say I'm unhappy with it, though I'm probably happy with it for different reasons than most here. She had become more of a roadblock to independence than an asset.
    For sure and big thing will be who replaces her, hopefully someone really wanting independence who will clear out her dead wood ministers and bin the weirdo greens asap. So not Macbeth and I think Forbes hiding on GRR will have done for her. So Flynn , Cherry and ??
    Has to be someone in Holyrood so not Flynn or Cherry (no personal support for the latter anyway).
    I wished it was Cherry.

    The puns and single entendres I could make with that surname.
    Surely to maintain the tradition is needs to be fish related again. Trouble is I can't see anyone that fits the bill amongst current MSPs.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,664
    So who is going to keep the seat warm for Alex Salmond to return?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329

    Get a sense the SNP is about to descend into massive infighting. She is such a loss to them

    And that is the Big Opportunity for opposing parties like my own. That the SNP expends so much energy fighting amongst its different factions that it does lasting damage to itself if not splitting apart properly.
    LOL, with ACH as leader you have to be kidding , they will be lucky to need a tandem, bereft of talent , not liberal , not democratic, London sock puppets with nothing to offer Scotland.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,309
    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    She’s doesn’t understand that people fear and loathe her because she is trying to destroy the United Kingdom. Of course she is polarising. What does she expect?

    Self-serving short-sighted mince

    Why would she care what the UK plebs outside Scotland think.
    Because half of Scotland also thinks this

    AlistairM said:

    Seriously, when is she going to stop? All about her, her, her.

    Listening isn’t compulsory. You can be reassured that she’s not speaking to or for you.
    Hahahahahah. She’s gone

    Next Indyvote August 2047. Start yer campaigning now!
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,831
    There's clearly substantial support for independence in Scotland but the SNP have also benefited from the division and general uselessness of their opponents. Let's see whether they can keep the show on the road now.

    Although the Sunak government was opposed to the measure, let's remember that the justification for stopping it was the potential impact on the rest of the UK. It was a legal matter.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,163
    Driver said:

    .

    MattW said:

    nico679 said:

    The Corbyn news is quite risky for Labour .

    What if disgruntled Corbyn supporters decide to set up a new party . Or if Corbyn does . Of course they would do that in the knowledge that they would likely facilitate another Tory government .

    No it isn't. These people are totally irrelevant
    There are 35 sitting Labour MPs - nearly 1 in 5 - in the Socialist Campaign Group.

    If they want it, there are enough to have a significant voice.
    And enough to give Sir Keir major problems if he doesn't get the electorate's consent for his programme.
    Yes, and some of the more *interesting* ones inherited very safe constituencies in the Springtime of Corbyn !!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    I suspect like all politicians in power for a long time with no internal opponents worth the name she just stopped listening.

    Classic path - confidence becomes arrogance, decisiveness becomes recklessness (or caution becomes paralysis), assertiveness becomes rudeness etc.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329
    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    She’s doesn’t understand that people fear and loathe her because she is trying to destroy the United Kingdom. Of course she is polarising. What does she expect?

    Self-serving short-sighted mince

    Why would she care what the UK plebs outside Scotland think.
    Because half of Scotland also thinks this
    Silly Billy
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    biggles said:

    Prof John Curtice “Nicola Sturgeon SNP’s most effective communicator by far, no obvious successor.”

    As someone who doesn’t live in Scotland and isn’t a natural SNP voter, I still always thought Angus Robertson was a good speaker when he was at Westminster.
    He did seem to come across well. No idea where he falls on the issues though.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,309
    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    She’s doesn’t understand that people fear and loathe her because she is trying to destroy the United Kingdom. Of course she is polarising. What does she expect?

    Self-serving short-sighted mince

    Why would she care what the UK plebs outside Scotland think.
    Because half of Scotland also thinks this
    Silly Billy
    She is LOATHED by many No voters. You know this. It’s precisely because she is a powerful and effective politician

    They will be cheering her resignation with vigour
  • Oh FFS... 'I don't want to sound immodest'....but
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    I think there’s a non-negligible chance she’ll be back as first minister in short order.
  • It is vital that @theSNP reacts to the resignation of #NicolaSturgeon in a way that is beneficial to the country and the cause of independence. Our party needs a leadership election that is about policies and not personalities. 1/3

    We must restore the SNP’s tradition of internal party democracy, open respectful debate and intellectual rigour and we must also put the welfare of everyone living in Scotland back at the heart of our endeavours. 2/3

    There are some huge challenges facing our country and our government. There is also a need for reform and healing within our party. I’m looking forward to playing my role in this process. 3/3


    https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1625817307971743746
  • kle4 said:

    biggles said:

    Prof John Curtice “Nicola Sturgeon SNP’s most effective communicator by far, no obvious successor.”

    As someone who doesn’t live in Scotland and isn’t a natural SNP voter, I still always thought Angus Robertson was a good speaker when he was at Westminster.
    He did seem to come across well. No idea where he falls on the issues though.
    That should be no barrier to expressing entrenched opinions on SNP internal politics or Scotpol in general.
  • ping said:

    I think there’s a non-negligible chance she’ll be back as first minister in short order.

    She’s just like Boris Johnson.

    Two narrow little nationalists in the same pod.
  • Meanwhile….

    NEW: Anas Sarwar says he does not regret supporting the SNP/Green Government on gender reform bill

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1625774179726368768
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727

    My Scottish wife has just said this speech is pathetic

    That qualifier makes me wonder whether you also have an English or Welsh wife Big G - and, if so, what they made of it! :wink:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    A fresh new leader, with a positive optimistic case for Independence, might be just what the SNP and the Independence campaign need at this time.

    A lot depends on who will win through to replace her.

    As long as you do not take the reins immediately after an implosion of support which damages the party brand irreparably near anyone should get a bit of a bump - with some polls showing an uncharacteristic drop in indy support, probably as a protest, a new leader should get a rise.
  • DJ41aDJ41a Posts: 174
    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    She’s doesn’t understand that people fear and loathe her because she is trying to destroy the United Kingdom. Of course she is polarising. What does she expect?

    Self-serving short-sighted mince

    Why would she care what the UK plebs outside Scotland think.
    Because half of Scotland also thinks this
    Silly Billy
    She is LOATHED by many No voters. You know this. It’s precisely because she is a powerful and effective politician

    They will be cheering her resignation with vigour
    Some of the things my unionist-voting, octogenarian, usually mild-mannered Scottish neighbour says about how Sturgeon makes her feel couldn't be repeated here because they involve violence.
  • Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    She’s doesn’t understand that people fear and loathe her because she is trying to destroy the United Kingdom. Of course she is polarising. What does she expect?

    Self-serving short-sighted mince

    Why would she care what the UK plebs outside Scotland think.
    Because half of Scotland also thinks this
    Silly Billy
    She is LOATHED by many No voters. You know this. It’s precisely because she is a powerful and effective politician

    They will be cheering her resignation with vigour
    They will. And they will move on to criticising her successor. They fundamentally disagree with the SNP as I do. But politics is pretty neatly decided between those people who will be cheering her departure and those who feel the opposite.

    And that is the Big Risk the SNP now face. They need to find someone who can be similarly polarising. If they don't, then the SNP are immediately diminished as a force.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727

    ping said:

    I think there’s a non-negligible chance she’ll be back as first minister in short order.

    She’s just like Boris Johnson.

    Two narrow little nationalists in the same pod.
    Not often muscly Johnson gets described as 'narrow'.
  • Interesting that Sturgeon is talking about depolarising public debate. She has been a polarising force, dismissing women’s legitimate concerns about her reforms as “invalid” and “artificial” and unfairly accusing her opponents of stoking a culture war.

    Her polarisation of the gender debate because it didn’t suit her politically to recognise it as a conflict of rights was appallingly irresponsible politics.

    Going hard on the importance of “rational” debate again in response to the questions. Was it rational to dismiss women’s legitimate concerns about her own reforms as invalid and artificial?


    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1625820544112156674

  • Selebian said:

    My Scottish wife has just said this speech is pathetic

    That qualifier makes me wonder whether you also have an English or Welsh wife Big G - and, if so, what they made of it! :wink:
    Just for clarification I have a 100% Scottish wife who I have been married to for 59 years
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,994
    I wonder whether the recent Jacinda Ardern resignation had any influence. I imagine Sturgeon could see that things were only going to get trickier in the short to medium term so decided that's it. It's always useful to have a recent precedent to follow even if they're the other side of the world.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497
    Sandpit said:

    A fresh new leader, with a positive optimistic case for Independence, might be just what the SNP and the Independence campaign need at this time.

    A lot depends on who will win through to replace her.

    Which, among the cavalcade of wit & beauty of SNP MSPs do you think might fit the bill?
    I haven't the faintest clue. If you can think of a likely lad or lass then do please share.
    As mentioned by @sarissa upthread Angus Robertson is probably the most experienced, but Kate Forbes is seen by some as a “coming figure” - though her religious views saw her steer well clear of the GRR bill and as a young mother may have other priorities.
    Forbes is still only 32 - surely too young and inexperienced for the top job this time around?
    I would love to see Kate Forbes as party leader; but she is a natural for leadership of a UK centrist values and pragmatism based party, once called One Nation Tories, now seemingly extinct.

    Pure hunch, but two points:

    NS has resigned for multiple reasons, including that she knows she cannot get independence in her time, accepts this and has done for some time and doesn't want to keep up the facade for ever.

    Secondly, Kate Forbes won't be leader of the SNP (hope I am wrong) now or ever. Just as NS has been out LBW on the back foot by being woke, Kate Forbes would be at high risk of being wrong footed at the other end of the spectrum. By nature and conviction she is on the 'wrong' side on gays, abortion, trans, religion, wokery, meaning of life etc.
  • Surgeon to pay Ross his £100 bet she would not lead into the next election
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,994

    Selebian said:

    My Scottish wife has just said this speech is pathetic

    That qualifier makes me wonder whether you also have an English or Welsh wife Big G - and, if so, what they made of it! :wink:
    Just for clarification I have a 100% Scottish wife who I have been married to for 59 years
    That doesn't fully answer the question though.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993
    Driver said:

    Cicero said:

    A few thoughts on the post Sturgeon world. Firstly this does not have the feeling of a long planned move, not least because the presser was "hurriedly arranged" and there really is no obvious successor. The announcement has come only a few weeks after the FM categorically denied having any intention to go.

    So what changed? I think the GRA has been bitter, but Surgeon seemed to be facing it down a bit. So is it the luke-warm support for making the next GE a "de facto referendum" on indy? Again, she is quite capable of toughing things out. Is it worries about the campaign finance allegations against her husband? Not stopped her up until now. Is she afraid that the slight fall off in Nat support in the polls becomes a sustained decline?

    The Nats have been on the back foot for a while, and the sense of invulnerability they used to have has clearly been punctured. May be quitting while ahead might give her greater influence with a weaker successor than if the setback came on her watch and she had to take the blame.

    In any event it opens up an opportunity for Labour (and actually the Lib Dems too). There are a couple of local by elections coming up, lets see if they give any sense of direction.

    My best guess at the moment is that there are quite a few little things starting to mount up, none of which is yet significant to force her to resign, but combined they may be having the effect of her concluding that if she doesn't resign now, she may not get the option to resign of her own volition later.
    I believe Police Scotland are about to begin interviewing SNP officials, MSPs and MPs re the ‘ring fenced’ £600,000.
  • I am told the answer to my last question about whether the FM has been or interviewed by police investigating SNP finances, is “no”

    https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1625824995728408577?s=20
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Get a sense the SNP is about to descend into massive infighting. She is such a loss to them

    Let’s hope so!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,900
    edited February 2023

    Can anyone explain to me why the IMF are projecting the Russian economy to grow this year? Seems weird since the energy sanctions have only just come in. Most of the government expenditure in January was borrowing. Will they be able to keep indebting themselves in the medium term?

    I've not read the details but the IMF is predicting every country, not just Russia, will grow, except for Britain of course! The Russian economy might gain from increased military production and transfer of export commodities like oil to new markets which have not imposed sanctions. ETA if you poke about on the IMF website you should be able to find the report.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,640
    TimS said:

    I wonder whether the recent Jacinda Ardern resignation had any influence. I imagine Sturgeon could see that things were only going to get trickier in the short to medium term so decided that's it. It's always useful to have a recent precedent to follow even if they're the other side of the world.

    The part of her speech when she went on about whether or not she could give 100% seemed to be lifted directly from Ardern.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,309

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    She’s doesn’t understand that people fear and loathe her because she is trying to destroy the United Kingdom. Of course she is polarising. What does she expect?

    Self-serving short-sighted mince

    Why would she care what the UK plebs outside Scotland think.
    Because half of Scotland also thinks this
    Silly Billy
    She is LOATHED by many No voters. You know this. It’s precisely because she is a powerful and effective politician

    They will be cheering her resignation with vigour
    They will. And they will move on to criticising her successor. They fundamentally disagree with the SNP as I do. But politics is pretty neatly decided between those people who will be cheering her departure and those who feel the opposite.

    And that is the Big Risk the SNP now face. They need to find someone who can be similarly polarising. If they don't, then the SNP are immediately diminished as a force.
    Interesting take. Not sure I agree. But interesting

    The big problem for the SNP is this: Sturgeon’s resignation is a tacit admission that independence is a long way away. She’d not be resigning if independence was an imminent possibility. This truth will be revealed in her aftermath, and people will then wonder what the SNP is for
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    MattW said:

    I see that they don't plan to call an Election, which is the exact opposite of what Ms Sturgeon was demanding for the UK Government when the Tories changed leader.

    Rank hypocrites.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    I'd have thought Cherry might be the best person to replace her.

    Strong on women's rights; clearly wants independence.
  • DJ41aDJ41a Posts: 174
    edited February 2023
    nico679 said:

    The Corbyn news is quite risky for Labour .

    What if disgruntled Corbyn supporters decide to set up a new party . Or if Corbyn does . Of course they would do that in the knowledge that they would likely facilitate another Tory government .

    And a Labour government under Ramsay MacStarmer would be what exactly?

    I'd love to see Corbyn take out Starmer the way Shinwell took out MacDonald in 1935 in Seaham. But he's likely to choose Islington North rather than Holborn and St Pancras because of the contacts, goodwill, and strong support he has in the former... That said, the distance for activists to travel wouldn't be far at all. If there's an actual party and they want to field a candidate in H&StP then Corbyn's on the list of possibles.

    How about re-establishing the ILP?
  • Pulpstar said:

    I'd have thought Cherry might be the best person to replace her.

    Strong on women's rights; clearly wants independence.

    Cannot dual mandate.

    The FM needs to be in Hollyrood.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    kle4 said:

    A fresh new leader, with a positive optimistic case for Independence, might be just what the SNP and the Independence campaign need at this time.

    A lot depends on who will win through to replace her.

    As long as you do not take the reins immediately after an implosion of support which damages the party brand irreparably near anyone should get a bit of a bump - with some polls showing an uncharacteristic drop in indy support, probably as a protest, a new leader should get a rise.
    Generally, I would agree with this.

    But, both Salmond (tho' flawed) and Sturgeon are very remarkable politicians.

    The SNP will be doing well to find a successor even half as good as them.

    Maybe the SNP will -- I don't live in England, so I am not a natural born expert on Scottish politics :wink:
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361
    ping said:

    I think there’s a non-negligible chance she’ll be back as first minister in short order.

    That's an interesting thought. Same happened with Salmond, who returned as leader when his first successor was a bit of a flop.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497
    ATM there are three big beast parties in the UK: Con, Lab and SNP. This may be a unique moment. As of now (today, up to noon) Labour's reputation is by miles the cleanest and dullest of the three.

    Can this last?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    edited February 2023

    Can anyone explain to me why the IMF are projecting the Russian economy to grow this year? Seems weird since the energy sanctions have only just come in. Most of the government expenditure in January was borrowing. Will they be able to keep indebting themselves in the medium term?

    A number of official reasons to do with energy prices and (implausible) exchange rates - but mostly that the IMF has no mechanism to challenge the Russian government’s own figures that are being reported, as to how wonderful is their economy at the moment.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Are you resigning, First Minister?


  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,526

    I lack the knowledge to be able to write a thread header on it but it would be good to see someone do a piece on the detail of how this affects Starmer's chances for an overall majority. My uninformed view, given the popularity of Sturgeon amongst a large section of the left leaning electorate in Scotland, is that almost no matter who takes over, Labour are going to see a significant improvement in their vote share and associated increase in seats.

    We have always said that one of the most important traits of a successful PM is that they are lucky. I think Starmer benefits greatly from that today.

    Not at once IMO - the successor will get the usual bounce. But by Oct 24, yes.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Pulpstar said:

    I'd have thought Cherry might be the best person to replace her.

    Strong on women's rights; clearly wants independence.

    Not the right timing for popping the Cherry though - she sits in the wrong House for an immediate election.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Anti-independentists previously: Sturgeon is an idiot, a complete imbecile, damaging her cause by her simple presence.

    Anti-independentists now: she was a titan, a powerful and effective politician, independence will be set back by her absence.
  • Mr. Palmer, unless they get Scottish Liz Truss to be leader. Then the bounce will be more of a plunge.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,309
    I hope the SNP go for Humza Yousaf, one of the most loathsome people in British politics, and one of the few identifiable racists in the same
  • My thanks go to @NicolaSturgeon for her long-standing service. I wish her all the best for her next steps.

    We will continue to work closely with the @scotgov on our joint efforts to deliver for people across Scotland.


    https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1625827396938084353
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    TOPPING said:

    Anti-independentists previously: Sturgeon is an idiot, a complete imbecile, damaging her cause by her simple presence.

    Anti-independentists now: she was a titan, a powerful and effective politician, independence will be set back by her absence.

    She was a very good politician, and a very crap head of government.

    Both can be simultaneously true, as some have argued about Boris Johnson for example.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'd have thought Cherry might be the best person to replace her.

    Strong on women's rights; clearly wants independence.

    Not the right timing for popping the Cherry though - she sits in the wrong House for an immediate election.
    Well it's almost always the case that the person who might be best won't be a runner.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,811

    Oh FFS... 'I don't want to sound immodest'....but

    What did Ned Stark say, everything before the "but" is horseshit.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993

    Get a sense the SNP is about to descend into massive infighting. She is such a loss to them

    If NS is submitting her resignation today, a new FM has to be appointed by 15 March. The SNP special conference on the way forward for the Indy campaign is on 19 March.

    Interesting times ahead.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    My thanks go to @NicolaSturgeon for her long-standing service. I wish her all the best for her next steps.

    We will continue to work closely with the @scotgov on our joint efforts to deliver for people across Scotland.


    https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1625827396938084353

    Ouch! Is that not the same form of words used when a Cabinet member resigns? Almost as if he’s reminding her, where the actual power lies…
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    Sandpit said:

    My thanks go to @NicolaSturgeon for her long-standing service. I wish her all the best for her next steps.

    We will continue to work closely with the @scotgov on our joint efforts to deliver for people across Scotland.


    https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1625827396938084353

    Ouch! Is that not the same form of words used when a Cabinet member resigns? Almost as if he’s reminding her, where the actual power lies…
    Nah, can't be. Most cabinet ministers nowadays don't manage longstanding service!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,309
    Further thought: Sturgeon’s departure means she does not expect the SNP to hold the balance of power at the next Westminster election. She’d hang on for that. She is resigned to Starmer winning
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,039
    Selebian said:

    ping said:

    I think there’s a non-negligible chance she’ll be back as first minister in short order.

    She’s just like Boris Johnson.

    Two narrow little nationalists in the same pod.
    Not often muscly Johnson gets described as 'narrow'.
    I don't think he was a nationalist either - he was (and is) pro-Boris, and would be nationalist or internationalist as he thought it suited him.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    TOPPING said:

    Anti-independentists previously: Sturgeon is an idiot, a complete imbecile, damaging her cause by her simple presence.

    Anti-independentists now: she was a titan, a powerful and effective politician, independence will be set back by her absence.

    She was very effective at turning Scotland into a one party state, but no nearer her "dream" than she was in 2014.

    The SNP are damaged by her going.

    Less sure about Indy, but it's still not going to happen
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    edited February 2023
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Anti-independentists previously: Sturgeon is an idiot, a complete imbecile, damaging her cause by her simple presence.

    Anti-independentists now: she was a titan, a powerful and effective politician, independence will be set back by her absence.

    But that simply isn’t true. I’m a strong unionist and I’ve never doubted Sturgeon’s ability. It’s one reason I abhor her. She’s highly capable AND wants to destroy my country

    In retrospect I think Salmond is the better and smarter politician but both are impressive

    I don’t know any sane unionist on here that believes Sturgeon is or was a feeble operator. Quite the opposite
    I'm sure some do, but as a unionist the effectiveness of SNP leaders has been a long source of consternation. I'm far from optimistic we'll be so fortunate as to get an SNP Truss.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,309
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Anti-independentists previously: Sturgeon is an idiot, a complete imbecile, damaging her cause by her simple presence.

    Anti-independentists now: she was a titan, a powerful and effective politician, independence will be set back by her absence.

    But that simply isn’t true. I’m a strong unionist and I’ve never doubted Sturgeon’s ability. It’s one reason I abhor her. She’s highly capable AND wants to destroy my country

    In retrospect I think Salmond is the better and smarter politician but both are impressive

    I don’t know any sane unionist on here that believes Sturgeon is or was a feeble operator. Quite the opposite
    I'm sure some do, but as a unionist the effectiveness of SNP leaders has been a long source of consternation. I'm far from optimistic we'll be so fortunate as to get an SNP Truss.
    The chances of a third excellent leader in a row are vanishingly small. Be of good cheer

    It may be someone OK like Robertson. But the Nits need more than “OK”
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,163
    Sandpit said:

    Can anyone explain to me why the IMF are projecting the Russian economy to grow this year? Seems weird since the energy sanctions have only just come in. Most of the government expenditure in January was borrowing. Will they be able to keep indebting themselves in the medium term?

    A number of official reasons to do with energy prices and (implausible) exchange rates - but mostly that the IMF has no mechanism to challenge the Russian government’s own figures that are being reported, as to how wonderful is their economy at the moment.
    Continued influx of Western goods via Georgia?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    MaxPB said:

    Oh FFS... 'I don't want to sound immodest'....but

    What did Ned Stark say, everything before the "but" is horseshit.
    I don't recall him specifically saying that, but I've always thought that saying is nonsense.

    Yes we can all find plenty of examples of it being true, but its not a universal rule.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    I guess the SNP needs to decide what it's for at this point. Woke gov't or actual independence.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    algarkirk said:

    ATM there are three big beast parties in the UK: Con, Lab and SNP. This may be a unique moment. As of now (today, up to noon) Labour's reputation is by miles the cleanest and dullest of the three.

    Can this last?

    Which is interesting, because Labour has not been without its own bad apples. Jared O'Mara, the peterborough MP etc. I think its partly what grabs the media attention, more than any inherent 'cleaner' nature. Plus both the Tories and the SNP have been in power, which gives better access to opportunities to commit dodgy stuff...
  • For the first time, I am predicting a Labour majority.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    It was a tough gig to follow Salmond but Sturgeon managed it to be fair to her. Whoever takes on the role has a tough old job. Is Angus Robertson up to it ?
    Not sure tbh.
  • kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Oh FFS... 'I don't want to sound immodest'....but

    What did Ned Stark say, everything before the "but" is horseshit.
    I don't recall him specifically saying that, but I've always thought that saying is nonsense.

    Yes we can all find plenty of examples of it being true, but its not a universal rule.
    The irony of the but above there...

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    For the first time, I am predicting a Labour majority.

    Starmer will certainly be pleased by the news of Sturgeon's resignation.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,567
    Nicola Sturgeon. What was she good for?

    Not sure history will be kind.
  • Prof Peston:

    That was a truly remarkable resignation statement by Nicola Sturgeon. Whether or not you back her ideas and convictions, she has been one of the most important politicians of this generation. Her call for less irrationality and hysteria in politics should be heeded


    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1625819119453888513


  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723
    AlistairM said:

    Is this the longest resignation speech ever? She's just going on a ramble.

    Be grateful. She will not be saying anything after this...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Oh FFS... 'I don't want to sound immodest'....but

    What did Ned Stark say, everything before the "but" is horseshit.
    I don't recall him specifically saying that, but I've always thought that saying is nonsense.

    Yes we can all find plenty of examples of it being true, but its not a universal rule.
    The irony of the but above there...

    I thought of using however instead.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    edited February 2023

    Nicola Sturgeon. What was she good for?

    Not sure history will be kind.


    2015 general election night was fun seeing Labour seat after seat crash in Scotland...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286

    For the first time, I am predicting a Labour majority.

    It's been obvious since September that Labour would win the next election with a majority?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Can anyone explain to me why the IMF are projecting the Russian economy to grow this year? Seems weird since the energy sanctions have only just come in. Most of the government expenditure in January was borrowing. Will they be able to keep indebting themselves in the medium term?

    A number of official reasons to do with energy prices and (implausible) exchange rates - but mostly that the IMF has no mechanism to challenge the Russian government’s own figures that are being reported, as to how wonderful is their economy at the moment.
    Continued influx of Western goods via Georgia?
    Good question. Trying to get an understanding of sanctions evasion would be a useful exercise for the IMF to conduct.

    My suspicion is that most Western goods in Russia are Chinese copies heading over that border. Most of the branded goods factories in China, have had for years an informal night shift running to supply the domestic market at discounted prices.

    The really interesting research would be around capital equipment. For how long can Russia keep Western oil & gas rigs pumping, and planes flying, without formal external support?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    GIN1138 said:

    For the first time, I am predicting a Labour majority.

    It's been obvious since September that Labour would win the next election with a majority?
    Ah, ignore him. He's been loudly predicting 30 point poll leads for weeks, you can't do that and expect people to think that doesn't translate to winning a comfortable majority whenever the election comes.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497
    Pulpstar said:

    For the first time, I am predicting a Labour majority.

    Starmer will certainly be pleased by the news of Sturgeon's resignation.
    FPTP has problems with a three party system and thrives on a two party one. Scottish party politics is complicated and a tiny bit touched by personal rivalries and hatreds that can only be generated in a small country where everyone with some power knows everyone else with some power; but on the whole Scottish opinion would be better served if it had either:

    Two big parties (SNP and moderate Labour) for nearly everyone to choose from with a 40%+ base and everyone else on the fringe
    or four big parties, 2 for independence and two for the union, with 20+% base each.

This discussion has been closed.