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Johnson is next CON leader favourite – but only a 14% one – politicalbetting.com
Johnson is next CON leader favourite – but only a 14% one – politicalbetting.com
I have got a feeling based on absolutely nothing that the Tory leadership will come up again before the general election.
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I'd expect the next leader isn't even any of those on that list.
Labour had selected their candidate for the seat, when Johnson announced his intention to stand Labour have re-opened the selection. The candidate selected was very young.
Kemi Badenoch as next leader is a depressing thought.
At least with Sunak you get the feeling he is in passing touch with reality.
ALthough I suppose it could be worse. At least it isn't Braverman.
Post-Rishi, assuming a battering I fully expect them to elect somebody completely bonkers and inappropriate - I'd look at Braverman, Baker or Barclay. Kemi is also a bit crackers, but her odds are unattractive at this stage.
FWIW I reckon Theresa May probably is undervalued at 100s.
This is the Manhattan Project of our times and Feb 2023 might see the AI equivalent of the July 45 nuclear explosion at Alamogordo. A great flash of light to blind the world
https://www.energy.gov/lm/doe-history/manhattan-project-background-information-and-preservation-work/manhattan-project-1
Boris Johnson will be censured by the Privileges Committee, its recommendations will be upheld, he will face a by-election and leave Parliament, for now at least.
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/2023-the-omens-arent-good-baf805633314
“No conclusive evidence Russia is behind Nord Stream attack
World leaders were quick to blame Moscow for explosions along the undersea natural gas pipelines. But some Western officials now doubt the Kremlin was responsible.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/12/21/russia-nord-stream-explosions/
If Sunak were run over by a bus this afternoon (check the driver isn't Boris for starters), who could plausibly take over?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p79tE16ABOQ
Ascribing motives yo Putin, which you parse as rational, is hardly conclusive of anything.
Quite amusingly, the WaPo doesn’t speculate on an ACTUAL culprit. Though every words screams ‘American black ops, possibly in collusion with or supporting Ukraine or Poland’
The UK would be another possibility, but again I can’t see us doing it without American assistance or permission
The state of the argument is basically unchanged since the event.
And insults anyone with the temerity to disagree with you.
Predictable - and worse, boring.
Most importantly though the recent declarations from Tory MPs deciding not to stand at the next election is an indication that many have given up hope of defeat at the next election being avoided. Sunak is as good a person to lead them to defeat as any other.
It is also not in the interests of the ERG and Tory right to replace him now. Given Labour will almost certainly win the next general election better for Sunak and Hunt to take the blame for that then the right can take over the Conservative Party again in opposition.
If Boris holds his seat he would obviously be favourite to be Leader of the Opposition. If not then Badenoch, Barclay and Braverman would all be contenders, with Tugendhat likely the main candidate of the One Nation wing
You're all over the place. Absolute shambles.
(That said, I don't particularly see the logic behind Russia doing this, other than to mess with people's heads)
And he was a seasoned journalist in a big newspaper. Quite striking
"supporting the Conservatives if you are under age 50 is weird"
Are you thinking what I'm thinking?
“This journey to Washington from Zelenskiy, it is an act of desperation."
Disgraceful from Germany’s main, public-funded news ‘analysis’ show.
https://twitter.com/bctallis/status/1605825461837234177
.@SteveForbesCEO discusses ChatGPT and its massive impact on writing, teaching, and the future of education. trib.al/tPTIsUL #WhatsAhead
https://twitter.com/forbes/status/1602621160537018370?s=61&t=JG-8fpanro3Ocj_E-O9kZA
It follows from this that we can make some fairly good deductions about some MPs who won't be contenders, because they will most likely have lost their seat at the election (if not before) - e.g. Johnson, Hunt, Raab, possibly others.
A more detailed next step would be to examine the publicly declared support from previous leadership elections of the 150-200 Tory MPs most likely to retain their seats, and use that information to deduce the likely pair of candidates for the party membership to choose the least realistic from.
I still reckon it may have been the Russians (and if that means you call me a moron; it's an honour to be taken as a moron by someone who is as deeply mired in moronity as your good self). As DA says below, there are very few countries that have the capability to do this, especially undetected, and fewer for whom it makes any sense. And if it was the Yanks, they would be firmly blaming the Russians for it, wouldn't they?
As for 'only a total fucking moron could believe that Putin blew up his own pipeline'; myself and others explained *why* he might have done so at the time. Only a total fucking moron would just hand-wave away those explanations because there is another more DRAMATIC!!!! answer.
The big question currently is the identity of the two large ships that appeared in the area days before with their AIS transmitters turned off. That's suspicious; and they could have belonged to any large actor. Likewise, there were Russian submarines in the area beforehand.
Apparently the water where the blasts were is 80m deep. Which is fancy gas mix diving depth.
Someone could have put some explosives in a waterproof container with an number of fusing methods - Bushnell demonstrated this a couple of centuries ago - sling it over the side of a boat on a line, until it snagged on the pipeline. No diving required…
A camera on a line to see what you are doing is cheap hobbyist gear. An ROV is more expensive - the price of a good second hand car….
TICK
Buzzy products like ChatGPT and DALL-E 2 will have to turn a profit
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2022/12/chatgpt-ai-chatbots-openai-cost-regulations/672539/
I am prepared to pay for this, if individual subs becomes the funding model. There will be the biggest social divide of all time between the GPT enabled, and not.
Seriously, unless the area was actually being monitored, so that it had to be done from a covert sub, nearly anyone could have done this.
Another problem is that NS1 and NS2 were dead projects anyway, at least for the course of the war.
But if they take the guard rails off it becomes quite dangerous, surely even more so with GPT4.
I’m not sure what the solution is here.
Yet in both cases, it remains the most likely scenario.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_marine_mammal#Russian_Federation,_Ukraine,_and_Iran
As a really simple example, I asked it to write me a script to download videos from streaming services using the 'youtube-dl' tool. 30 seconds or so later - done. Then asked it to change the script to bring up a VPN based on the country-code of the URL to get around location restrictions. 30 seconds later - done. Asked it to do a version where it would use a specific VPN configuration based on the URL/domain, then fall back to the country-code if there wasn't a match. 30 seconds later - done.
Nothing I couldn't have done myself - but I certainly wouldn't have got it done in under two minutes.
The most persuasive logic seemed to be "this is a bad thing and a nefarious act"
"Russia does bad things and acts nefariously"
"therefore this was Russia".
Who knows, maybe he was. Damned Russian psyops.
Biden in early 2022, talking of ending Nordstream
"There will no longer be a Nordstream 2. We will bring an end to it. We will be able to do that"
https://twitter.com/Ibiza_Beard_Oil/status/1604042598917836800?s=20&t=-y86roo-yq_NexosIttAWQ
I mean, I know you're not the brightest pfennig in the kartoffelsalat, but he ACTUALLY FUCKING SAYS IT
"We will bring an end to Nordstream 2"
Time to solve issue: 25 minutes.
Now, you can simply ask ChatGPT and it (essentially) adapts StackOverflow for you. (As, indeed, does the similarly GPT powered CoPilot.)
Time to solve issue: 3 minutes.
That said... I was playing with a Python GIS library. And ChatGPT kept giving me the wrong answer. I'd paste the error in, and it would keep giving the same answer.
Why? Because there were 100x as many questions and answers about the old version of the library on StackOverflow as of the new one. Bad info had driven out good. And it takes time for the predictive algorithms to weigh new information enough that it surpasses old.
And then there's the bigger issue.
ChatGPT is amazing at this because it is parasitical on StackOverflow. If people stop using StackOverflow because of how great ChatGPT is, then where will the new knowledge that ChatGPT needs to function come from?
If it was Russia then it sends the message that they have the capability to destroy subsea infrastructure, that they are willing to use that capability, and consequently if you push us too far we can hit back at you in deniable ways.
The Americans have said today that they aren't yet willing to send tanks and jets to Ukraine because they want to preserve the unity of the Western Alliance. It doesn't make much sense to me that they would put the unity of the Western Alliance at risk by destroying infrastructure that's hitherto been critical for the German economy.
Trouble is, they are running out of data. It is not infinite. One of the latest AI networks has consumed 30% of the entire Net.
How do they grow them if they run out of food?
And $45bn of war aid was worth the trip.
Well, I guess you do. You went through that process. And also @JosiasJessop
And @Nigelb
And someone will defend the algorithm by saying that at least it wasn't as bad as the fakery performed by Johann Hari.
ETA and thinking about it, Elon's blue ticks. People will be pleading with him to take their money for a gold standard NotGPT badge by next summer.
Previously I didn't care about this, at all, but now you've convinced me it was a false flag operation that could've been performed by anyone except the US.
So my hopes aren't high for the future of these interactions.
He would pick up most Sunak MPs support but add some on the ERG right too