Badenoch combines the modesty of Boris Johnson, the common touch of Rishi Sunak, the level headedness of Truss and the pragmatism of Steve Baker.
Ah, you're worried about her.
Interesting.
I suppose if she's one of 50 Conservative survivors after the next election no one will be worrying about her very much.
I see @Heathener still hasn't taken me up on my offer of a bet on this.
I hope she does, as she seems so confident and I'm sure she'd be willing to back that with cash.
The more relevant question is what happens to the Conservatives if/when they lose?
Let's be honest - they were completely ineffective in Opposition from 1997-2005. The coming of Cameron, the change from Blair to Brown and the global financial crash got them back in first contention and then office (albeit in coalition).
A lot will depend on the scale of the disaster - 250 MPs will mean a real chance of a quick return so the post-Sunak leader would likely be someone fairly senior as the next prospective Prime Minister. 150 MPs means a minimum of two terms out so skip a generation and go for someone who can rebuild. 50 MPs is existential - it's a fight for survival against the LDs, Reform and others.
50 MPs won't happen because at the end of the day the centre-right constituency in this country is far bigger than that.
I think political support these days is a mile wide but an inch deep. The key point to note is fluidity and change.
You're not wrong - call it volatility if you prefer.
I suspect the best hope for the Conservatives is for an uneventful 12-18 months - the best governance is often no governance (or at least nothing visible) and it's interesting to see Sunak seen much less than Truss or Johnson.
I agree 50 is very unlikely but I don't think 150 is inconceivable. This would, pace 1997, see the Party reduced to an English rural and suburban rump and the "way back" wouldn't be obvious.
I think the set of local elections in May which are barely four months away will be unpleasant for the Conservatives - less because they will lose large numbers of seats (they lost a lot last time these were contested in 2019) but because I suspect it will be a very good night for Labour (who also made a net loss in 2019 albeit much smaller).
I think Conservative weakness will be about as enduring as Labour strength.
We are dealing with a very frustrated and volatile electorate.
Badenoch combines the modesty of Boris Johnson, the common touch of Rishi Sunak, the level headedness of Truss and the pragmatism of Steve Baker.
Ah, you're worried about her.
Interesting.
I suppose if she's one of 50 Conservative survivors after the next election no one will be worrying about her very much.
I see @Heathener still hasn't taken me up on my offer of a bet on this.
I hope she does, as she seems so confident and I'm sure she'd be willing to back that with cash.
The more relevant question is what happens to the Conservatives if/when they lose?
Let's be honest - they were completely ineffective in Opposition from 1997-2005. The coming of Cameron, the change from Blair to Brown and the global financial crash got them back in first contention and then office (albeit in coalition).
A lot will depend on the scale of the disaster - 250 MPs will mean a real chance of a quick return so the post-Sunak leader would likely be someone fairly senior as the next prospective Prime Minister. 150 MPs means a minimum of two terms out so skip a generation and go for someone who can rebuild. 50 MPs is existential - it's a fight for survival against the LDs, Reform and others.
50 MPs won't happen because at the end of the day the centre-right constituency in this country is far bigger than that.
I think political support these days is a mile wide but an inch deep. The key point to note is fluidity and change.
You're not wrong - call it volatility if you prefer.
I suspect the best hope for the Conservatives is for an uneventful 12-18 months - the best governance is often no governance (or at least nothing visible) and it's interesting to see Sunak seen much less than Truss or Johnson.
I agree 50 is very unlikely but I don't think 150 is inconceivable. This would, pace 1997, see the Party reduced to an English rural and suburban rump and the "way back" wouldn't be obvious.
I think the set of local elections in May which are barely four months away will be unpleasant for the Conservatives - less because they will lose large numbers of seats (they lost a lot last time these were contested in 2019) but because I suspect it will be a very good night for Labour (who also made a net loss in 2019 albeit much smaller).
I think Conservative weakness will be about as enduring as Labour strength.
We are dealing with a very frustrated and volatile electorate.
The political and economic fundamentals presided over by this government are utterly dire. Nothing can hide that.
Badenoch combines the modesty of Boris Johnson, the common touch of Rishi Sunak, the level headedness of Truss and the pragmatism of Steve Baker.
Ah, you're worried about her.
Interesting.
I suppose if she's one of 50 Conservative survivors after the next election no one will be worrying about her very much.
I see @Heathener still hasn't taken me up on my offer of a bet on this.
I hope she does, as she seems so confident and I'm sure she'd be willing to back that with cash.
The more relevant question is what happens to the Conservatives if/when they lose?
Let's be honest - they were completely ineffective in Opposition from 1997-2005. The coming of Cameron, the change from Blair to Brown and the global financial crash got them back in first contention and then office (albeit in coalition).
A lot will depend on the scale of the disaster - 250 MPs will mean a real chance of a quick return so the post-Sunak leader would likely be someone fairly senior as the next prospective Prime Minister. 150 MPs means a minimum of two terms out so skip a generation and go for someone who can rebuild. 50 MPs is existential - it's a fight for survival against the LDs, Reform and others.
50 MPs won't happen because at the end of the day the centre-right constituency in this country is far bigger than that.
I think political support these days is a mile wide but an inch deep. The key point to note is fluidity and change.
You're not wrong - call it volatility if you prefer.
I suspect the best hope for the Conservatives is for an uneventful 12-18 months - the best governance is often no governance (or at least nothing visible) and it's interesting to see Sunak seen much less than Truss or Johnson.
I agree 50 is very unlikely but I don't think 150 is inconceivable. This would, pace 1997, see the Party reduced to an English rural and suburban rump and the "way back" wouldn't be obvious.
I think the set of local elections in May which are barely four months away will be unpleasant for the Conservatives - less because they will lose large numbers of seats (they lost a lot last time these were contested in 2019) but because I suspect it will be a very good night for Labour (who also made a net loss in 2019 albeit much smaller).
The latest Opinium would see 197 Tory seats and they were one of the most accurate pollsters last time.
Most polls have RefUK on 5 to 10% now and under FPTP most of that will go back to the Tories during a general election campaign
I see from his twitter feed that the January 6th riots were Pelosi's fault. Because lack of proper planning for a riot is as responsible as urging it on.
Because of today’s result, there will now be children in Scotland who are unable to purchase fireworks for Halloween but will be legally able to change their sex.
Badenoch combines the modesty of Boris Johnson, the common touch of Rishi Sunak, the level headedness of Truss and the pragmatism of Steve Baker.
Ah, you're worried about her.
Interesting.
I suppose if she's one of 50 Conservative survivors after the next election no one will be worrying about her very much.
I see @Heathener still hasn't taken me up on my offer of a bet on this.
I hope she does, as she seems so confident and I'm sure she'd be willing to back that with cash.
The more relevant question is what happens to the Conservatives if/when they lose?
Let's be honest - they were completely ineffective in Opposition from 1997-2005. The coming of Cameron, the change from Blair to Brown and the global financial crash got them back in first contention and then office (albeit in coalition).
A lot will depend on the scale of the disaster - 250 MPs will mean a real chance of a quick return so the post-Sunak leader would likely be someone fairly senior as the next prospective Prime Minister. 150 MPs means a minimum of two terms out so skip a generation and go for someone who can rebuild. 50 MPs is existential - it's a fight for survival against the LDs, Reform and others.
50 MPs won't happen because at the end of the day the centre-right constituency in this country is far bigger than that.
I think political support these days is a mile wide but an inch deep. The key point to note is fluidity and change.
But that cuts various ways, and cannot be a point in support of any particular outcome, nearly two years out.
I'm not saying it can't happen.
I am challenging the presumption that it's "nailed on" to happen.
For sure. But a capricious electorate without any strong party loyalities could just as easily give us a Tory wipeout to savour until the end of our days.
Labour will pay for supporting Nicola Sturgeon’s trans crusade As a former Labour MP, I simply cannot explain why a party that once championed women's rights has so readily adopted this anti-women stance
Badenoch combines the modesty of Boris Johnson, the common touch of Rishi Sunak, the level headedness of Truss and the pragmatism of Steve Baker.
Ah, you're worried about her.
Interesting.
I suppose if she's one of 50 Conservative survivors after the next election no one will be worrying about her very much.
I see @Heathener still hasn't taken me up on my offer of a bet on this.
I hope she does, as she seems so confident and I'm sure she'd be willing to back that with cash.
The more relevant question is what happens to the Conservatives if/when they lose?
Let's be honest - they were completely ineffective in Opposition from 1997-2005. The coming of Cameron, the change from Blair to Brown and the global financial crash got them back in first contention and then office (albeit in coalition).
A lot will depend on the scale of the disaster - 250 MPs will mean a real chance of a quick return so the post-Sunak leader would likely be someone fairly senior as the next prospective Prime Minister. 150 MPs means a minimum of two terms out so skip a generation and go for someone who can rebuild. 50 MPs is existential - it's a fight for survival against the LDs, Reform and others.
50 MPs won't happen because at the end of the day the centre-right constituency in this country is far bigger than that.
I think political support these days is a mile wide but an inch deep. The key point to note is fluidity and change.
You're not wrong - call it volatility if you prefer.
I suspect the best hope for the Conservatives is for an uneventful 12-18 months - the best governance is often no governance (or at least nothing visible) and it's interesting to see Sunak seen much less than Truss or Johnson.
I agree 50 is very unlikely but I don't think 150 is inconceivable. This would, pace 1997, see the Party reduced to an English rural and suburban rump and the "way back" wouldn't be obvious.
I think the set of local elections in May which are barely four months away will be unpleasant for the Conservatives - less because they will lose large numbers of seats (they lost a lot last time these were contested in 2019) but because I suspect it will be a very good night for Labour (who also made a net loss in 2019 albeit much smaller).
I think Conservative weakness will be about as enduring as Labour strength.
We are dealing with a very frustrated and volatile electorate.
The political and economic fundamentals presided over by this government are utterly dire. Nothing can hide that.
I concur, but my point is that it's not 1997.
The New Labour government had a golden economic period to manage.
Because of today’s result, there will now be children in Scotland who are unable to purchase fireworks for Halloween but will be legally able to change their sex.
Because of today’s result, there will now be children in Scotland who are unable to purchase fireworks for Halloween but will be legally able to change their sex.
That, and the UK Government is mulling using never before deployed veto powers to frustrate the Scottish Parliament, by preventing the bill being sent for Royal Assent, according to reports this evening. The grounds apparently being that it potentially creates conflict with reserved powers. As reported by The Guardian,
...the power threatened by the Scottish secretary, Alister Jack, after the bill was passed – a section 35 order that would prevent the bill being sent for royal assent – has never been used.
It is there for when new powers are felt to impact adversely on legislation reserved to Westminster. The legislation at issue here is the UK Equality Act.
One example given by Whitehall insiders of the potential harm caused is that if a male Scottish prisoner in an English jail received a gender-recognition certificate three months after self-identifying as a woman, the prison could be in breach of the Equality Act for refusing the request to transfer to a women’s jail.
Another is that of schools or colleges refusing to recognise Scottish-born 16- and 17-year-old pupils with certificates when requesting to use single-sex facilities. Employers who refuse to recognise the certificates could also be sued.
Because of today’s result, there will now be children in Scotland who are unable to purchase fireworks for Halloween but will be legally able to change their sex.
Badenoch combines the modesty of Boris Johnson, the common touch of Rishi Sunak, the level headedness of Truss and the pragmatism of Steve Baker.
Ah, you're worried about her.
Interesting.
I suppose if she's one of 50 Conservative survivors after the next election no one will be worrying about her very much.
I see @Heathener still hasn't taken me up on my offer of a bet on this.
I hope she does, as she seems so confident and I'm sure she'd be willing to back that with cash.
The more relevant question is what happens to the Conservatives if/when they lose?
Let's be honest - they were completely ineffective in Opposition from 1997-2005. The coming of Cameron, the change from Blair to Brown and the global financial crash got them back in first contention and then office (albeit in coalition).
A lot will depend on the scale of the disaster - 250 MPs will mean a real chance of a quick return so the post-Sunak leader would likely be someone fairly senior as the next prospective Prime Minister. 150 MPs means a minimum of two terms out so skip a generation and go for someone who can rebuild. 50 MPs is existential - it's a fight for survival against the LDs, Reform and others.
50 MPs won't happen because at the end of the day the centre-right constituency in this country is far bigger than that.
I think political support these days is a mile wide but an inch deep. The key point to note is fluidity and change.
You're not wrong - call it volatility if you prefer.
I suspect the best hope for the Conservatives is for an uneventful 12-18 months - the best governance is often no governance (or at least nothing visible) and it's interesting to see Sunak seen much less than Truss or Johnson.
I agree 50 is very unlikely but I don't think 150 is inconceivable. This would, pace 1997, see the Party reduced to an English rural and suburban rump and the "way back" wouldn't be obvious.
I think the set of local elections in May which are barely four months away will be unpleasant for the Conservatives - less because they will lose large numbers of seats (they lost a lot last time these were contested in 2019) but because I suspect it will be a very good night for Labour (who also made a net loss in 2019 albeit much smaller).
I think Conservative weakness will be about as enduring as Labour strength.
We are dealing with a very frustrated and volatile electorate.
Labour were as unpopular in 2008/09 as the Conservatives are now. They won 24% in the local elections of 2008, 23% in 2009.
But they still returned 257 MPs in 2010.
I’d expect the Conservatives to clear 200 MP’s in 2024. Even now, the centre right is polling about 33-35%.
Total wipeouts only happen when a party is eclipsed by another party on its own side, like Labour replacing the Liberals.
Forget the science of dunking, is there any scientific literature on the phenomenon of goals being scored in football the second you walk out the room?
Because of today’s result, there will now be children in Scotland who are unable to purchase fireworks for Halloween but will be legally able to change their sex.
Because of today’s result, there will now be children in Scotland who are unable to purchase fireworks for Halloween but will be legally able to change their sex.
That, and the UK Government is mulling using never before deployed veto powers to frustrate the Scottish Parliament, by preventing the bill being sent for Royal Assent, according to reports this evening. The grounds apparently being that it potentially creates conflict with reserved powers. As reported by The Guardian,
...the power threatened by the Scottish secretary, Alister Jack, after the bill was passed – a section 35 order that would prevent the bill being sent for royal assent – has never been used.
It is there for when new powers are felt to impact adversely on legislation reserved to Westminster. The legislation at issue here is the UK Equality Act.
One example given by Whitehall insiders of the potential harm caused is that if a male Scottish prisoner in an English jail received a gender-recognition certificate three months after self-identifying as a woman, the prison could be in breach of the Equality Act for refusing the request to transfer to a women’s jail.
Another is that of schools or colleges refusing to recognise Scottish-born 16- and 17-year-old pupils with certificates when requesting to use single-sex facilities. Employers who refuse to recognise the certificates could also be sued.
Zelensky's powers of persuasion must be even greater than we realised.
I haven't heard the details, but a cynical guess is that the money might go to Ukraine, and a bunch of it goes out again to the US government to pay for arms.
Zelensky's powers of persuasion must be even greater than we realised.
Part of the $1.7 trillion funding bill. The bigger issue for some Republicans is spending US money on Ukraine; spending Russian money not so much of a problem.
Zelensky's powers of persuasion must be even greater than we realised.
I haven't heard the details, but a cynical guess is that the money might go to Ukraine, and a bunch of it goes out again to the US government to pay for arms.
Even so, you would have expected some utter dickhead like Ron Johnson to vote against, unless the Ukrainians provided Hunter Biden's laptop's mousemat or something.
Because of today’s result, there will now be children in Scotland who are unable to purchase fireworks for Halloween but will be legally able to change their sex.
Of all the non sequiturs i've read on here that takes the biscuit
Not really. If we as a society think they are responsible enough to change their biological sex, surely they can handle a firework or two?
In discussion of legal ages for various things it is reasonably noted that not everything must or should be legal at the exact same point, it isn't all or nothing. But personally I think the way our society currently decides some things are ok and others not is at best abitrary and at worst can be nonsensical.
Because of today’s result, there will now be children in Scotland who are unable to purchase fireworks for Halloween but will be legally able to change their sex.
That, and the UK Government is mulling using never before deployed veto powers to frustrate the Scottish Parliament, by preventing the bill being sent for Royal Assent, according to reports this evening. The grounds apparently being that it potentially creates conflict with reserved powers. As reported by The Guardian,
...the power threatened by the Scottish secretary, Alister Jack, after the bill was passed – a section 35 order that would prevent the bill being sent for royal assent – has never been used.
It is there for when new powers are felt to impact adversely on legislation reserved to Westminster. The legislation at issue here is the UK Equality Act.
One example given by Whitehall insiders of the potential harm caused is that if a male Scottish prisoner in an English jail received a gender-recognition certificate three months after self-identifying as a woman, the prison could be in breach of the Equality Act for refusing the request to transfer to a women’s jail.
Another is that of schools or colleges refusing to recognise Scottish-born 16- and 17-year-old pupils with certificates when requesting to use single-sex facilities. Employers who refuse to recognise the certificates could also be sued.
Badenoch combines the modesty of Boris Johnson, the common touch of Rishi Sunak, the level headedness of Truss and the pragmatism of Steve Baker.
Ah, you're worried about her.
Interesting.
I suppose if she's one of 50 Conservative survivors after the next election no one will be worrying about her very much.
I see @Heathener still hasn't taken me up on my offer of a bet on this.
I hope she does, as she seems so confident and I'm sure she'd be willing to back that with cash.
The more relevant question is what happens to the Conservatives if/when they lose?
Let's be honest - they were completely ineffective in Opposition from 1997-2005. The coming of Cameron, the change from Blair to Brown and the global financial crash got them back in first contention and then office (albeit in coalition).
A lot will depend on the scale of the disaster - 250 MPs will mean a real chance of a quick return so the post-Sunak leader would likely be someone fairly senior as the next prospective Prime Minister. 150 MPs means a minimum of two terms out so skip a generation and go for someone who can rebuild. 50 MPs is existential - it's a fight for survival against the LDs, Reform and others.
50 MPs won't happen because at the end of the day the centre-right constituency in this country is far bigger than that.
I think political support these days is a mile wide but an inch deep. The key point to note is fluidity and change.
You're not wrong - call it volatility if you prefer.
I suspect the best hope for the Conservatives is for an uneventful 12-18 months - the best governance is often no governance (or at least nothing visible) and it's interesting to see Sunak seen much less than Truss or Johnson.
I agree 50 is very unlikely but I don't think 150 is inconceivable. This would, pace 1997, see the Party reduced to an English rural and suburban rump and the "way back" wouldn't be obvious.
I think the set of local elections in May which are barely four months away will be unpleasant for the Conservatives - less because they will lose large numbers of seats (they lost a lot last time these were contested in 2019) but because I suspect it will be a very good night for Labour (who also made a net loss in 2019 albeit much smaller).
I think Conservative weakness will be about as enduring as Labour strength.
We are dealing with a very frustrated and volatile electorate.
Labour were as unpopular in 2008/09 as the Conservatives are now. They won 24% in the local elections of 2008, 23% in 2009.
But they still returned 257 MPs in 2010.
I’d expect the Conservatives to clear 200 MP’s in 2024. Even now, the centre right is polling about 33-35%.
Total wipeouts only happen when a party is eclipsed by another party on its own side, like Labour replacing the Liberals.
Or the Reform Party of Canada replacing the Canadian Tories in 1993 (the 2 eventually merging into today's Conservative Party of Canada in 2003).
Or Le Pen's Party overtaking Les Republicains in France or Brothers of Italy Forza Italia in Italy.
Or on the left in France Melenchon's Party overtaking the French Socialist Party or in Scotland the SNP Scottish Labour
Possible that the tweet is referring to a unanimous consent motion, which does NOT require roll call vote, instead passes if there is zero objection on floor when raised.
Anyway, hardly a tough vote, to send somebody else's money to Kyiv instead of Moscow. If anything, may give some A-holes who vote AGAINST actual funding & other support for UKR some cover.
So I believe Nicola Sturgeon is in earnest when she protests that she is a “feminist to her fingertips”, and I accept her sincerity when she insists there is no conflict between the rights of transgender people and those of women. She is not lying. It’s much worse than that: she doesn’t understand the implications of the gender recognition reforms passed by the Scottish parliament yesterday.
Badenoch combines the modesty of Boris Johnson, the common touch of Rishi Sunak, the level headedness of Truss and the pragmatism of Steve Baker.
Ah, you're worried about her.
Interesting.
I suppose if she's one of 50 Conservative survivors after the next election no one will be worrying about her very much.
I see @Heathener still hasn't taken me up on my offer of a bet on this.
I hope she does, as she seems so confident and I'm sure she'd be willing to back that with cash.
The more relevant question is what happens to the Conservatives if/when they lose?
Let's be honest - they were completely ineffective in Opposition from 1997-2005. The coming of Cameron, the change from Blair to Brown and the global financial crash got them back in first contention and then office (albeit in coalition).
A lot will depend on the scale of the disaster - 250 MPs will mean a real chance of a quick return so the post-Sunak leader would likely be someone fairly senior as the next prospective Prime Minister. 150 MPs means a minimum of two terms out so skip a generation and go for someone who can rebuild. 50 MPs is existential - it's a fight for survival against the LDs, Reform and others.
50 MPs won't happen because at the end of the day the centre-right constituency in this country is far bigger than that.
I think political support these days is a mile wide but an inch deep. The key point to note is fluidity and change.
You're not wrong - call it volatility if you prefer.
I suspect the best hope for the Conservatives is for an uneventful 12-18 months - the best governance is often no governance (or at least nothing visible) and it's interesting to see Sunak seen much less than Truss or Johnson.
I agree 50 is very unlikely but I don't think 150 is inconceivable. This would, pace 1997, see the Party reduced to an English rural and suburban rump and the "way back" wouldn't be obvious.
I think the set of local elections in May which are barely four months away will be unpleasant for the Conservatives - less because they will lose large numbers of seats (they lost a lot last time these were contested in 2019) but because I suspect it will be a very good night for Labour (who also made a net loss in 2019 albeit much smaller).
I think Conservative weakness will be about as enduring as Labour strength.
We are dealing with a very frustrated and volatile electorate.
Labour were as unpopular in 2008/09 as the Conservatives are now. They won 24% in the local elections of 2008, 23% in 2009.
But they still returned 257 MPs in 2010.
I’d expect the Conservatives to clear 200 MP’s in 2024. Even now, the centre right is polling about 33-35%.
Total wipeouts only happen when a party is eclipsed by another party on its own side, like Labour replacing the Liberals.
Depends a lot on how much Farage and RefUK decide to twist the knife; Conservatives on low to mid 30s live to fight another day, but FPTP is brutal as a nationwide party's share falls from 30 to 25.
Forget the science of dunking, is there any scientific literature on the phenomenon of goals being scored in football the second you walk out the room?
Yup, I've induced so many wickets for England's bowlers by going to the toilet.
Possible that the tweet is referring to a unanimous consent motion, which does NOT require roll call vote, instead passes if there is zero objection on floor when raised.
Anyway, hardly a tough vote, to send somebody else's money to Kyiv instead of Moscow. If anything, may give some A-holes who vote AGAINST actual funding & other support for UKR some cover.
Indeed, though if someone did vote against it that would be a pretty good indication of them having an issue with Ukraine far beyond supposedly having an issue with spending US money on it.
Badenoch combines the modesty of Boris Johnson, the common touch of Rishi Sunak, the level headedness of Truss and the pragmatism of Steve Baker.
Ah, you're worried about her.
Interesting.
I suppose if she's one of 50 Conservative survivors after the next election no one will be worrying about her very much.
I see @Heathener still hasn't taken me up on my offer of a bet on this.
I hope she does, as she seems so confident and I'm sure she'd be willing to back that with cash.
The more relevant question is what happens to the Conservatives if/when they lose?
Let's be honest - they were completely ineffective in Opposition from 1997-2005. The coming of Cameron, the change from Blair to Brown and the global financial crash got them back in first contention and then office (albeit in coalition).
A lot will depend on the scale of the disaster - 250 MPs will mean a real chance of a quick return so the post-Sunak leader would likely be someone fairly senior as the next prospective Prime Minister. 150 MPs means a minimum of two terms out so skip a generation and go for someone who can rebuild. 50 MPs is existential - it's a fight for survival against the LDs, Reform and others.
50 MPs won't happen because at the end of the day the centre-right constituency in this country is far bigger than that.
I think political support these days is a mile wide but an inch deep. The key point to note is fluidity and change.
You're not wrong - call it volatility if you prefer.
I suspect the best hope for the Conservatives is for an uneventful 12-18 months - the best governance is often no governance (or at least nothing visible) and it's interesting to see Sunak seen much less than Truss or Johnson.
I agree 50 is very unlikely but I don't think 150 is inconceivable. This would, pace 1997, see the Party reduced to an English rural and suburban rump and the "way back" wouldn't be obvious.
I think the set of local elections in May which are barely four months away will be unpleasant for the Conservatives - less because they will lose large numbers of seats (they lost a lot last time these were contested in 2019) but because I suspect it will be a very good night for Labour (who also made a net loss in 2019 albeit much smaller).
I think Conservative weakness will be about as enduring as Labour strength.
We are dealing with a very frustrated and volatile electorate.
Labour were as unpopular in 2008/09 as the Conservatives are now. They won 24% in the local elections of 2008, 23% in 2009.
But they still returned 257 MPs in 2010.
I’d expect the Conservatives to clear 200 MP’s in 2024. Even now, the centre right is polling about 33-35%.
Total wipeouts only happen when a party is eclipsed by another party on its own side, like Labour replacing the Liberals.
Depends a lot on how much Farage and RefUK decide to twist the knife; Conservatives on low to mid 30s live to fight another day, but FPTP is brutal as a nationwide party's share falls from 30 to 25.
Forget the science of dunking, is there any scientific literature on the phenomenon of goals being scored in football the second you walk out the room?
Yup, I've induced so many wickets for England's bowlers by going to the toilet.
So I believe Nicola Sturgeon is in earnest when she protests that she is a “feminist to her fingertips”, and I accept her sincerity when she insists there is no conflict between the rights of transgender people and those of women. She is not lying. It’s much worse than that: she doesn’t understand the implications of the gender recognition reforms passed by the Scottish parliament yesterday.
Badenoch combines the modesty of Boris Johnson, the common touch of Rishi Sunak, the level headedness of Truss and the pragmatism of Steve Baker.
Ah, you're worried about her.
Interesting.
I suppose if she's one of 50 Conservative survivors after the next election no one will be worrying about her very much.
I see @Heathener still hasn't taken me up on my offer of a bet on this.
I hope she does, as she seems so confident and I'm sure she'd be willing to back that with cash.
The more relevant question is what happens to the Conservatives if/when they lose?
Let's be honest - they were completely ineffective in Opposition from 1997-2005. The coming of Cameron, the change from Blair to Brown and the global financial crash got them back in first contention and then office (albeit in coalition).
A lot will depend on the scale of the disaster - 250 MPs will mean a real chance of a quick return so the post-Sunak leader would likely be someone fairly senior as the next prospective Prime Minister. 150 MPs means a minimum of two terms out so skip a generation and go for someone who can rebuild. 50 MPs is existential - it's a fight for survival against the LDs, Reform and others.
50 MPs won't happen because at the end of the day the centre-right constituency in this country is far bigger than that.
I think political support these days is a mile wide but an inch deep. The key point to note is fluidity and change.
You're not wrong - call it volatility if you prefer.
I suspect the best hope for the Conservatives is for an uneventful 12-18 months - the best governance is often no governance (or at least nothing visible) and it's interesting to see Sunak seen much less than Truss or Johnson.
I agree 50 is very unlikely but I don't think 150 is inconceivable. This would, pace 1997, see the Party reduced to an English rural and suburban rump and the "way back" wouldn't be obvious.
I think the set of local elections in May which are barely four months away will be unpleasant for the Conservatives - less because they will lose large numbers of seats (they lost a lot last time these were contested in 2019) but because I suspect it will be a very good night for Labour (who also made a net loss in 2019 albeit much smaller).
I think Conservative weakness will be about as enduring as Labour strength.
We are dealing with a very frustrated and volatile electorate.
Labour were as unpopular in 2008/09 as the Conservatives are now. They won 24% in the local elections of 2008, 23% in 2009.
But they still returned 257 MPs in 2010.
I’d expect the Conservatives to clear 200 MP’s in 2024. Even now, the centre right is polling about 33-35%.
Total wipeouts only happen when a party is eclipsed by another party on its own side, like Labour replacing the Liberals.
Depends a lot on how much Farage and RefUK decide to twist the knife; Conservatives on low to mid 30s live to fight another day, but FPTP is brutal as a nationwide party's share falls from 30 to 25.
Badenoch combines the modesty of Boris Johnson, the common touch of Rishi Sunak, the level headedness of Truss and the pragmatism of Steve Baker.
Ah, you're worried about her.
Interesting.
I suppose if she's one of 50 Conservative survivors after the next election no one will be worrying about her very much.
I see @Heathener still hasn't taken me up on my offer of a bet on this.
I hope she does, as she seems so confident and I'm sure she'd be willing to back that with cash.
The more relevant question is what happens to the Conservatives if/when they lose?
Let's be honest - they were completely ineffective in Opposition from 1997-2005. The coming of Cameron, the change from Blair to Brown and the global financial crash got them back in first contention and then office (albeit in coalition).
A lot will depend on the scale of the disaster - 250 MPs will mean a real chance of a quick return so the post-Sunak leader would likely be someone fairly senior as the next prospective Prime Minister. 150 MPs means a minimum of two terms out so skip a generation and go for someone who can rebuild. 50 MPs is existential - it's a fight for survival against the LDs, Reform and others.
50 MPs won't happen because at the end of the day the centre-right constituency in this country is far bigger than that.
I think political support these days is a mile wide but an inch deep. The key point to note is fluidity and change.
You're not wrong - call it volatility if you prefer.
I suspect the best hope for the Conservatives is for an uneventful 12-18 months - the best governance is often no governance (or at least nothing visible) and it's interesting to see Sunak seen much less than Truss or Johnson.
I agree 50 is very unlikely but I don't think 150 is inconceivable. This would, pace 1997, see the Party reduced to an English rural and suburban rump and the "way back" wouldn't be obvious.
I think the set of local elections in May which are barely four months away will be unpleasant for the Conservatives - less because they will lose large numbers of seats (they lost a lot last time these were contested in 2019) but because I suspect it will be a very good night for Labour (who also made a net loss in 2019 albeit much smaller).
I think Conservative weakness will be about as enduring as Labour strength.
We are dealing with a very frustrated and volatile electorate.
Labour were as unpopular in 2008/09 as the Conservatives are now. They won 24% in the local elections of 2008, 23% in 2009.
But they still returned 257 MPs in 2010.
I’d expect the Conservatives to clear 200 MP’s in 2024. Even now, the centre right is polling about 33-35%.
Total wipeouts only happen when a party is eclipsed by another party on its own side, like Labour replacing the Liberals.
Why do you think I'm so keen to call Heathener out with that bet?
Badenoch combines the modesty of Boris Johnson, the common touch of Rishi Sunak, the level headedness of Truss and the pragmatism of Steve Baker.
Ah, you're worried about her.
Interesting.
I suppose if she's one of 50 Conservative survivors after the next election no one will be worrying about her very much.
I see @Heathener still hasn't taken me up on my offer of a bet on this.
I hope she does, as she seems so confident and I'm sure she'd be willing to back that with cash.
The more relevant question is what happens to the Conservatives if/when they lose?
Let's be honest - they were completely ineffective in Opposition from 1997-2005. The coming of Cameron, the change from Blair to Brown and the global financial crash got them back in first contention and then office (albeit in coalition).
A lot will depend on the scale of the disaster - 250 MPs will mean a real chance of a quick return so the post-Sunak leader would likely be someone fairly senior as the next prospective Prime Minister. 150 MPs means a minimum of two terms out so skip a generation and go for someone who can rebuild. 50 MPs is existential - it's a fight for survival against the LDs, Reform and others.
50 MPs won't happen because at the end of the day the centre-right constituency in this country is far bigger than that.
I think political support these days is a mile wide but an inch deep. The key point to note is fluidity and change.
You're not wrong - call it volatility if you prefer.
I suspect the best hope for the Conservatives is for an uneventful 12-18 months - the best governance is often no governance (or at least nothing visible) and it's interesting to see Sunak seen much less than Truss or Johnson.
I agree 50 is very unlikely but I don't think 150 is inconceivable. This would, pace 1997, see the Party reduced to an English rural and suburban rump and the "way back" wouldn't be obvious.
I think the set of local elections in May which are barely four months away will be unpleasant for the Conservatives - less because they will lose large numbers of seats (they lost a lot last time these were contested in 2019) but because I suspect it will be a very good night for Labour (who also made a net loss in 2019 albeit much smaller).
I think Conservative weakness will be about as enduring as Labour strength.
We are dealing with a very frustrated and volatile electorate.
Labour were as unpopular in 2008/09 as the Conservatives are now. They won 24% in the local elections of 2008, 23% in 2009.
But they still returned 257 MPs in 2010.
I’d expect the Conservatives to clear 200 MP’s in 2024. Even now, the centre right is polling about 33-35%.
Total wipeouts only happen when a party is eclipsed by another party on its own side, like Labour replacing the Liberals.
Depends a lot on how much Farage and RefUK decide to twist the knife; Conservatives on low to mid 30s live to fight another day, but FPTP is brutal as a nationwide party's share falls from 30 to 25.
If I were a Labour strategist, I’d be thinking quite carefully today about its position if ministers seek to amend Equality Act to say sex as a protected characteristic means biological sex. Could be very divisive for the Labour parliamentary party.
Forget the science of dunking, is there any scientific literature on the phenomenon of goals being scored in football the second you walk out the room?
Yup, I've induced so many wickets for England's bowlers by going to the toilet.
The 2005 and 2009 Ashes victories are down to me.
Be honest, you were taking the piss.
Nah, I deserved an MBE more than Paul Collingwood in 2005 for my contribution on regaining The Ashes.
Forget the science of dunking, is there any scientific literature on the phenomenon of goals being scored in football the second you walk out the room?
Yup, I've induced so many wickets for England's bowlers by going to the toilet.
The 2005 and 2009 Ashes victories are down to me.
Be honest, you were taking the piss.
Nah, I deserved an MBE more than Paul Collingwood in 2005 for my contribution on regaining The Ashes.
Well, since that really was taking the piss it's hard to disagree.
If they'd only saved it for his winning of the T20 WC, rather than an hour leading to a different sort of WC.
I'm sure the answer is unknowable Fifa is investigating how celebrity chef Salt Bae and a number of other people gained "undue access" to the pitch at the end of the World Cup final in Qatar.
If I were a Labour strategist, I’d be thinking quite carefully today about its position if ministers seek to amend Equality Act to say sex as a protected characteristic means biological sex. Could be very divisive for the Labour parliamentary party.
If I were a Conservative Party hack, I'd be thinking of even more ways to hype this whole topic, in hope that it will make core voters AND swing voters AND etc., etc. forget all about the disaster that is today's Tory "government".
Respect views of those who are sincere in their strong beliefs, but WAY less respectful of those who are WAY over-milking it for (as they fondly hope) political advantage.
Of course am old enough to recall how a (dare I say it?) a generation ago (!) the GOP used to highlight the San Francisco Gay Pride Parade in campaign commercials.
To a bit of short-term success, but long-term abject failure.
Labour will pay for supporting Nicola Sturgeon’s trans crusade As a former Labour MP, I simply cannot explain why a party that once championed women's rights has so readily adopted this anti-women stance
Knew it'd be old Tommy, the only red thing about him nowadays is his face. SKS & co will be heartbroken that a former Labour MP who advised voters to back Boris has turned against them.
Because of today’s result, there will now be children in Scotland who are unable to purchase fireworks for Halloween but will be legally able to change their sex.
That, and the UK Government is mulling using never before deployed veto powers to frustrate the Scottish Parliament, by preventing the bill being sent for Royal Assent, according to reports this evening. The grounds apparently being that it potentially creates conflict with reserved powers. As reported by The Guardian,
...the power threatened by the Scottish secretary, Alister Jack, after the bill was passed – a section 35 order that would prevent the bill being sent for royal assent – has never been used.
It is there for when new powers are felt to impact adversely on legislation reserved to Westminster. The legislation at issue here is the UK Equality Act.
One example given by Whitehall insiders of the potential harm caused is that if a male Scottish prisoner in an English jail received a gender-recognition certificate three months after self-identifying as a woman, the prison could be in breach of the Equality Act for refusing the request to transfer to a women’s jail.
Another is that of schools or colleges refusing to recognise Scottish-born 16- and 17-year-old pupils with certificates when requesting to use single-sex facilities. Employers who refuse to recognise the certificates could also be sued.
That could be the start of all manner of fun and games.
Picking such a fight is a no-brainer for the government.
If the Conservatives were to follow up with a manifesto pledge to abolish the Scottish Parliament, what would be the effect on their chances at the next GE.
Because of today’s result, there will now be children in Scotland who are unable to purchase fireworks for Halloween but will be legally able to change their sex.
That, and the UK Government is mulling using never before deployed veto powers to frustrate the Scottish Parliament, by preventing the bill being sent for Royal Assent, according to reports this evening. The grounds apparently being that it potentially creates conflict with reserved powers. As reported by The Guardian,
...the power threatened by the Scottish secretary, Alister Jack, after the bill was passed – a section 35 order that would prevent the bill being sent for royal assent – has never been used.
It is there for when new powers are felt to impact adversely on legislation reserved to Westminster. The legislation at issue here is the UK Equality Act.
One example given by Whitehall insiders of the potential harm caused is that if a male Scottish prisoner in an English jail received a gender-recognition certificate three months after self-identifying as a woman, the prison could be in breach of the Equality Act for refusing the request to transfer to a women’s jail.
Another is that of schools or colleges refusing to recognise Scottish-born 16- and 17-year-old pupils with certificates when requesting to use single-sex facilities. Employers who refuse to recognise the certificates could also be sued.
That could be the start of all manner of fun and games.
Picking such a fight is a no-brainer for the government.
If the Conservatives were to follow up with a manifesto pledge to abolish the Scottish Parliament, what would be the effect on their chances at the next GE.
Hard to imagine it would make a meaningful difference. They seem likely to lose most if not all of their seats in Scotland anyway.
I don't think this is grievance-farming by Sturgeon who wants a source of division with SW1 - or, if it is, this motivation is down the list and a happy by-product
The risks are too great and the downsides too obvious. Also, Sturgeon is smart and she will see the potential problems of the legislation
The only conclusion is that she really means this. She believes in all this. She is seriously Woke
I'm sure the answer is unknowable Fifa is investigating how celebrity chef Salt Bae and a number of other people gained "undue access" to the pitch at the end of the World Cup final in Qatar.
Labour will pay for supporting Nicola Sturgeon’s trans crusade As a former Labour MP, I simply cannot explain why a party that once championed women's rights has so readily adopted this anti-women stance
Knew it'd be old Tommy, the only red thing about him nowadays is his face. SKS & co will be heartbroken that a former Labour MP who advised voters to back Boris has turned against them.
Tory Tom. I used to work beside his mother. She must be turning in her grave at his gradual movement to the right.
Badenoch combines the modesty of Boris Johnson, the common touch of Rishi Sunak, the level headedness of Truss and the pragmatism of Steve Baker.
Ah, you're worried about her.
Interesting.
I suppose if she's one of 50 Conservative survivors after the next election no one will be worrying about her very much.
I see @Heathener still hasn't taken me up on my offer of a bet on this.
I hope she does, as she seems so confident and I'm sure she'd be willing to back that with cash.
The more relevant question is what happens to the Conservatives if/when they lose?
Let's be honest - they were completely ineffective in Opposition from 1997-2005. The coming of Cameron, the change from Blair to Brown and the global financial crash got them back in first contention and then office (albeit in coalition).
A lot will depend on the scale of the disaster - 250 MPs will mean a real chance of a quick return so the post-Sunak leader would likely be someone fairly senior as the next prospective Prime Minister. 150 MPs means a minimum of two terms out so skip a generation and go for someone who can rebuild. 50 MPs is existential - it's a fight for survival against the LDs, Reform and others.
50 MPs won't happen because at the end of the day the centre-right constituency in this country is far bigger than that.
I think political support these days is a mile wide but an inch deep. The key point to note is fluidity and change.
You're not wrong - call it volatility if you prefer.
I suspect the best hope for the Conservatives is for an uneventful 12-18 months - the best governance is often no governance (or at least nothing visible) and it's interesting to see Sunak seen much less than Truss or Johnson.
I agree 50 is very unlikely but I don't think 150 is inconceivable. This would, pace 1997, see the Party reduced to an English rural and suburban rump and the "way back" wouldn't be obvious.
I think the set of local elections in May which are barely four months away will be unpleasant for the Conservatives - less because they will lose large numbers of seats (they lost a lot last time these were contested in 2019) but because I suspect it will be a very good night for Labour (who also made a net loss in 2019 albeit much smaller).
I think Conservative weakness will be about as enduring as Labour strength.
We are dealing with a very frustrated and volatile electorate.
Labour were as unpopular in 2008/09 as the Conservatives are now. They won 24% in the local elections of 2008, 23% in 2009.
But they still returned 257 MPs in 2010.
I’d expect the Conservatives to clear 200 MP’s in 2024. Even now, the centre right is polling about 33-35%.
Total wipeouts only happen when a party is eclipsed by another party on its own side, like Labour replacing the Liberals.
Depends a lot on how much Farage and RefUK decide to twist the knife; Conservatives on low to mid 30s live to fight another day, but FPTP is brutal as a nationwide party's share falls from 30 to 25.
I'm sure the answer is unknowable Fifa is investigating how celebrity chef Salt Bae and a number of other people gained "undue access" to the pitch at the end of the World Cup final in Qatar.
Because of today’s result, there will now be children in Scotland who are unable to purchase fireworks for Halloween but will be legally able to change their sex.
That, and the UK Government is mulling using never before deployed veto powers to frustrate the Scottish Parliament, by preventing the bill being sent for Royal Assent, according to reports this evening. The grounds apparently being that it potentially creates conflict with reserved powers. As reported by The Guardian,
...the power threatened by the Scottish secretary, Alister Jack, after the bill was passed – a section 35 order that would prevent the bill being sent for royal assent – has never been used.
It is there for when new powers are felt to impact adversely on legislation reserved to Westminster. The legislation at issue here is the UK Equality Act.
One example given by Whitehall insiders of the potential harm caused is that if a male Scottish prisoner in an English jail received a gender-recognition certificate three months after self-identifying as a woman, the prison could be in breach of the Equality Act for refusing the request to transfer to a women’s jail.
Another is that of schools or colleges refusing to recognise Scottish-born 16- and 17-year-old pupils with certificates when requesting to use single-sex facilities. Employers who refuse to recognise the certificates could also be sued.
That could be the start of all manner of fun and games.
Picking such a fight is a no-brainer for the government.
If the Conservatives were to follow up with a manifesto pledge to abolish the Scottish Parliament, what would be the effect on their chances at the next GE.
Hard to imagine it would make a meaningful difference. They seem likely to lose most if not all of their seats in Scotland anyway.
I was wondering whether it would be a popular policy in England.
Labour will pay for supporting Nicola Sturgeon’s trans crusade As a former Labour MP, I simply cannot explain why a party that once championed women's rights has so readily adopted this anti-women stance
Knew it'd be old Tommy, the only red thing about him nowadays is his face. SKS & co will be heartbroken that a former Labour MP who advised voters to back Boris has turned against them.
Tory Tom. I used to work beside his mother. She must be turning in her grave at his gradual movement to the right.
I don't think this is grievance-farming by Sturgeon who wants a source of division with SW1 - or, if it is, this motivation is down the list and a happy by-product
The risks are too great and the downsides too obvious. Also, Sturgeon is smart and she will see the potential problems of the legislation
The only conclusion is that she really means this. She believes in all this. She is seriously Woke
Because of today’s result, there will now be children in Scotland who are unable to purchase fireworks for Halloween but will be legally able to change their sex.
That, and the UK Government is mulling using never before deployed veto powers to frustrate the Scottish Parliament, by preventing the bill being sent for Royal Assent, according to reports this evening. The grounds apparently being that it potentially creates conflict with reserved powers. As reported by The Guardian,
...the power threatened by the Scottish secretary, Alister Jack, after the bill was passed – a section 35 order that would prevent the bill being sent for royal assent – has never been used.
It is there for when new powers are felt to impact adversely on legislation reserved to Westminster. The legislation at issue here is the UK Equality Act.
One example given by Whitehall insiders of the potential harm caused is that if a male Scottish prisoner in an English jail received a gender-recognition certificate three months after self-identifying as a woman, the prison could be in breach of the Equality Act for refusing the request to transfer to a women’s jail.
Another is that of schools or colleges refusing to recognise Scottish-born 16- and 17-year-old pupils with certificates when requesting to use single-sex facilities. Employers who refuse to recognise the certificates could also be sued.
That could be the start of all manner of fun and games.
Picking such a fight is a no-brainer for the government.
If the Conservatives were to follow up with a manifesto pledge to abolish the Scottish Parliament, what would be the effect on their chances at the next GE.
Hard to imagine it would make a meaningful difference. They seem likely to lose most if not all of their seats in Scotland anyway.
I was wondering whether it would be a popular policy in England.
I think, truthfully, that the existence or otherwise of a Scottish Parliament will not figure largely in the mind of the average English voter compared to the shitshow in public services or the galumphing inflation.
It isn't popular, but to most of them it isn't something that figures in their daily lives.
Labour will pay for supporting Nicola Sturgeon’s trans crusade As a former Labour MP, I simply cannot explain why a party that once championed women's rights has so readily adopted this anti-women stance
Knew it'd be old Tommy, the only red thing about him nowadays is his face. SKS & co will be heartbroken that a former Labour MP who advised voters to back Boris has turned against them.
Tory Tom. I used to work beside his mother. She must be turning in her grave at his gradual movement to the right.
Tbf he does know all about voters making Labour pay.
2010 Labour Tom Harris 20,736 51.7 +4.5 SNP Malcolm Fleming 8,078 20.1 +7.5
2015 SNP Stewart McDonald 26,773 54.9 +34.8 Labour Tom Harris 14,504 29.7 -22.0
I don't think this is grievance-farming by Sturgeon who wants a source of division with SW1 - or, if it is, this motivation is down the list and a happy by-product
The risks are too great and the downsides too obvious. Also, Sturgeon is smart and she will see the potential problems of the legislation
The only conclusion is that she really means this. She believes in all this. She is seriously Woke
She is extremely, extremely woke.
Yes. I guess a lifetime of an allegedly repressed REDACTED could turn someone Woke?
If you are minded to be Freudian, Sturgeon has been publicly wearing the wrong clothes all her life, to preserve her career. I think we have the psychic source of this legislation, pushed through against the obvious wishes of Scotland
I don't think this is grievance-farming by Sturgeon who wants a source of division with SW1 - or, if it is, this motivation is down the list and a happy by-product
The risks are too great and the downsides too obvious. Also, Sturgeon is smart and she will see the potential problems of the legislation
The only conclusion is that she really means this. She believes in all this. She is seriously Woke
There seems a clear belief among the Conservatively-minded on here those currently supporting the Reform Party will run back to the Conservatives as soon as any election is called.
Do we have any serious evidence for this? In 2015, there was only a tiny move back from UKIP to the Conservatives. In 1997, Referendum polled just 2.6% but supposedly "lost" the Conservatives 10 seats.
IF Reform are, for example, strongest in areas of traditional Conservative strength such as Eastern England, it may not make too much difference.
Forget the science of dunking, is there any scientific literature on the phenomenon of goals being scored in football the second you walk out the room?
Yup, I've induced so many wickets for England's bowlers by going to the toilet.
The 2005 and 2009 Ashes victories are down to me.
"How lucky you English are to find ze toilet so amusing! For us, it is a mundane and functional item. For you, ze basis of an entire culture!!"
I don't think this is grievance-farming by Sturgeon who wants a source of division with SW1 - or, if it is, this motivation is down the list and a happy by-product
The risks are too great and the downsides too obvious. Also, Sturgeon is smart and she will see the potential problems of the legislation
The only conclusion is that she really means this. She believes in all this. She is seriously Woke
I agree. You pick a fight with Westminster on an issue which is popular with Scots.
I don't think this is grievance-farming by Sturgeon who wants a source of division with SW1 - or, if it is, this motivation is down the list and a happy by-product
The risks are too great and the downsides too obvious. Also, Sturgeon is smart and she will see the potential problems of the legislation
The only conclusion is that she really means this. She believes in all this. She is seriously Woke
Woke means being PRO-women, NOT anti-women!
On twitter, "Woke millennial" means "I concede, you have won the argument with your wit and firm grasp of the evidence".
There seems a clear belief among the Conservatively-minded on here those currently supporting the Reform Party will run back to the Conservatives as soon as any election is called.
Do we have any serious evidence for this? In 2015, there was only a tiny move back from UKIP to the Conservatives. In 1997, Referendum polled just 2.6% but supposedly "lost" the Conservatives 10 seats.
IF Reform are, for example, strongest in areas of traditional Conservative strength such as Eastern England, it may not make too much difference.
I don’t think Reform amount to much, outside of opinion polls.
IMHO, a lot of UKIP voters shifted over to the Conservatives, from 2014-15.
On topic. Truss will be the next leader of the Conservatives. She will lead them into the next generally election, win, and win handsomely. You can already see the buyers remorse at Sunak.
Badenoch combines the modesty of Boris Johnson, the common touch of Rishi Sunak, the level headedness of Truss and the pragmatism of Steve Baker.
Ah, you're worried about her.
Interesting.
I suppose if she's one of 50 Conservative survivors after the next election no one will be worrying about her very much.
I see @Heathener still hasn't taken me up on my offer of a bet on this.
I hope she does, as she seems so confident and I'm sure she'd be willing to back that with cash.
The more relevant question is what happens to the Conservatives if/when they lose?
Let's be honest - they were completely ineffective in Opposition from 1997-2005. The coming of Cameron, the change from Blair to Brown and the global financial crash got them back in first contention and then office (albeit in coalition).
A lot will depend on the scale of the disaster - 250 MPs will mean a real chance of a quick return so the post-Sunak leader would likely be someone fairly senior as the next prospective Prime Minister. 150 MPs means a minimum of two terms out so skip a generation and go for someone who can rebuild. 50 MPs is existential - it's a fight for survival against the LDs, Reform and others.
50 MPs won't happen because at the end of the day the centre-right constituency in this country is far bigger than that.
I think political support these days is a mile wide but an inch deep. The key point to note is fluidity and change.
You're not wrong - call it volatility if you prefer.
I suspect the best hope for the Conservatives is for an uneventful 12-18 months - the best governance is often no governance (or at least nothing visible) and it's interesting to see Sunak seen much less than Truss or Johnson.
I agree 50 is very unlikely but I don't think 150 is inconceivable. This would, pace 1997, see the Party reduced to an English rural and suburban rump and the "way back" wouldn't be obvious.
I think the set of local elections in May which are barely four months away will be unpleasant for the Conservatives - less because they will lose large numbers of seats (they lost a lot last time these were contested in 2019) but because I suspect it will be a very good night for Labour (who also made a net loss in 2019 albeit much smaller).
I think Conservative weakness will be about as enduring as Labour strength.
We are dealing with a very frustrated and volatile electorate.
Labour were as unpopular in 2008/09 as the Conservatives are now. They won 24% in the local elections of 2008, 23% in 2009.
But they still returned 257 MPs in 2010.
I’d expect the Conservatives to clear 200 MP’s in 2024. Even now, the centre right is polling about 33-35%.
Total wipeouts only happen when a party is eclipsed by another party on its own side, like Labour replacing the Liberals.
Depends a lot on how much Farage and RefUK decide to twist the knife; Conservatives on low to mid 30s live to fight another day, but FPTP is brutal as a nationwide party's share falls from 30 to 25.
"I’m screaming to bits. Trans friends in the west coast of the US do not understand why there are so many women on the left here are so transphobic. I don’t either. My daughter has three mums. And she’s proud."
There seems a clear belief among the Conservatively-minded on here those currently supporting the Reform Party will run back to the Conservatives as soon as any election is called.
Do we have any serious evidence for this? In 2015, there was only a tiny move back from UKIP to the Conservatives. In 1997, Referendum polled just 2.6% but supposedly "lost" the Conservatives 10 seats.
IF Reform are, for example, strongest in areas of traditional Conservative strength such as Eastern England, it may not make too much difference.
I don’t think Reform amount to much, outside of opinion polls.
IMHO, a lot of UKIP voters shifted over to the Conservatives, from 2014-15.
Agreed re: Reform. As for UKIP, the record shows the party's polling varied widely (usually best with Survation and when polled for the Mail on Sunday, now there's a thing) when they would be above 20%. Other polls had them at 15-17% so the final number of 12.6% suggests a move back to the Conservatives (and perhaps Labour too) but there was still a solid UKIP vote in 2015.
On topic. Truss will be the next leader of the Conservatives. She will lead them into the next generally election, win, and win handsomely. You can already see the buyers remorse at Sunak.
Given one poll under Truss had the Tories on just 6 seats, even 60 seats on the worst Sunak poll is still ten times better
No sign of the Tories clawing their way back then.
The only thing that can save the Tories is an ENORMOUS Culture War, with the Left as the diseased Woke people who will brainwash our gallant sons and sacrifice our white daughters etc
It almost certainly won't work, and will definitely be ugly, but they will have a go. Sturgeon has just helped
No sign of the Tories clawing their way back then.
It's one poll to be fair albeit a very good one for Labour and the first showing them over 50% for a while.
Conservative mid term troughs usually flatten after 36 months after the election so this should be as bad as it gets but the degree of recovery is the big question. From the disastrous mid 1995 polls the Conservative recovery was slight - on the May 1995 locals, Labour were predicted to win over 400 seats and the Conservatives 150 which wasn't far off the truth.
I'd have loved to have seen polling from mid-1973 using today's more sophisticated sampling methodology - this was a time of big Liberal by-election wins.
As a counter point, the Conservatives were regularly third in polls in 1986 but in June 1987 won a majority of 101 seats.
No sign of the Tories clawing their way back then.
The only thing that can save the Tories is an ENORMOUS Culture War, with the Left as the diseased Woke people who will brainwash our gallant sons and sacrifice our white daughters etc
It almost certainly won't work, and will definitely be ugly, but they will have a go. Sturgeon has just helped
Only one who could do that really is Boris.
Sunak and Hunt are far too elite metropolitan liberal for that.
No sign of the Tories clawing their way back then.
The only thing that can save the Tories is an ENORMOUS Culture War, with the Left as the diseased Woke people who will brainwash our gallant sons and sacrifice our white daughters etc
It almost certainly won't work, and will definitely be ugly, but they will have a go. Sturgeon has just helped
Only one who could do that really is Boris.
Sunak and Hunt are far too metropolitan liberal for that.
No sign of the Tories clawing their way back then.
The only thing that can save the Tories is an ENORMOUS Culture War, with the Left as the diseased Woke people who will brainwash our gallant sons and sacrifice our white daughters etc
It almost certainly won't work, and will definitely be ugly, but they will have a go. Sturgeon has just helped
Forget the science of dunking, is there any scientific literature on the phenomenon of goals being scored in football the second you walk out the room?
Yup, I've induced so many wickets for England's bowlers by going to the toilet.
Because of today’s result, there will now be children in Scotland who are unable to purchase fireworks for Halloween but will be legally able to change their sex.
That, and the UK Government is mulling using never before deployed veto powers to frustrate the Scottish Parliament, by preventing the bill being sent for Royal Assent, according to reports this evening. The grounds apparently being that it potentially creates conflict with reserved powers. As reported by The Guardian,
...the power threatened by the Scottish secretary, Alister Jack, after the bill was passed – a section 35 order that would prevent the bill being sent for royal assent – has never been used.
It is there for when new powers are felt to impact adversely on legislation reserved to Westminster. The legislation at issue here is the UK Equality Act.
One example given by Whitehall insiders of the potential harm caused is that if a male Scottish prisoner in an English jail received a gender-recognition certificate three months after self-identifying as a woman, the prison could be in breach of the Equality Act for refusing the request to transfer to a women’s jail.
Another is that of schools or colleges refusing to recognise Scottish-born 16- and 17-year-old pupils with certificates when requesting to use single-sex facilities. Employers who refuse to recognise the certificates could also be sued.
That could be the start of all manner of fun and games.
Picking such a fight is a no-brainer for the government.
If the Conservatives were to follow up with a manifesto pledge to abolish the Scottish Parliament, what would be the effect on their chances at the next GE.
Hard to imagine it would make a meaningful difference. They seem likely to lose most if not all of their seats in Scotland anyway.
I was wondering whether it would be a popular policy in England.
An interesting question. I would not be in favour, and right now support a new Scottish referendum. Needs much better framing than (a) the last one and (b) the Brexit one, but enough has materially changed that I think it’s needed.
No sign of the Tories clawing their way back then.
The only thing that can save the Tories is an ENORMOUS Culture War, with the Left as the diseased Woke people who will brainwash our gallant sons and sacrifice our white daughters etc
It almost certainly won't work, and will definitely be ugly, but they will have a go. Sturgeon has just helped
Oh dear, I fear you do actually believe this.
No one outside the loopy right gives a fuck about anything called 'Culture War' right now; the majority of voters wouldn't have a clue what the term meant.
People care about the cost of living, paying their bills, crap public services and Tory sleaze.
No sign of the Tories clawing their way back then.
The only thing that can save the Tories is an ENORMOUS Culture War, with the Left as the diseased Woke people who will brainwash our gallant sons and sacrifice our white daughters etc
It almost certainly won't work, and will definitely be ugly, but they will have a go. Sturgeon has just helped
Nah, it won't even save the Tories in Scotland.
No, it probably won't, but it will save a few seats
TransWokeShite is the one REALLY difficult issue for Labour, everything else Starmer has neutralised rather well. He can't neutralise this as Labourite activists are Way Woke and they care too much
This could help the Tories to win the next election but one
No sign of the Tories clawing their way back then.
The only thing that can save the Tories is an ENORMOUS Culture War, with the Left as the diseased Woke people who will brainwash our gallant sons and sacrifice our white daughters etc
It almost certainly won't work, and will definitely be ugly, but they will have a go. Sturgeon has just helped
Only one who could do that really is Boris.
Sunak and Hunt are far too metropolitan liberal for that.
Kemi!
Possibly, though only Boris could really stir up the gammon anti Woke, or Farage.
Meanwhile a woman is arrested just for praying in a London street!
No sign of the Tories clawing their way back then.
It's one poll to be fair albeit a very good one for Labour and the first showing them over 50% for a while.
Conservative mid term troughs usually flatten after 36 months after the election so this should be as bad as it gets but the degree of recovery is the big question. From the disastrous mid 1995 polls the Conservative recovery was slight - on the May 1995 locals, Labour were predicted to win over 400 seats and the Conservatives 150 which wasn't far off the truth.
I'd have loved to have seen polling from mid-1973 using today's more sophisticated sampling methodology - this was a time of big Liberal by-election wins.
As a counter point, the Conservatives were regularly third in polls in 1986 but in June 1987 won a majority of 101 seats.
Fair point about 1986/1987. I am racking my memory to try to recall what brought that change in the Tories' fortunes about but, nope, I really can't. It certainly happened though.
No sign of the Tories clawing their way back then.
It's one poll to be fair albeit a very good one for Labour and the first showing them over 50% for a while.
Conservative mid term troughs usually flatten after 36 months after the election so this should be as bad as it gets but the degree of recovery is the big question. From the disastrous mid 1995 polls the Conservative recovery was slight - on the May 1995 locals, Labour were predicted to win over 400 seats and the Conservatives 150 which wasn't far off the truth.
I'd have loved to have seen polling from mid-1973 using today's more sophisticated sampling methodology - this was a time of big Liberal by-election wins.
As a counter point, the Conservatives were regularly third in polls in 1986 but in June 1987 won a majority of 101 seats.
Fair point about 1986/1987. I am racking my memory to try to recall what brought that change in the Tories' fortunes about but, nope, I really can't. It certainly happened though.
Because of today’s result, there will now be children in Scotland who are unable to purchase fireworks for Halloween but will be legally able to change their sex.
That, and the UK Government is mulling using never before deployed veto powers to frustrate the Scottish Parliament, by preventing the bill being sent for Royal Assent, according to reports this evening. The grounds apparently being that it potentially creates conflict with reserved powers. As reported by The Guardian,
...the power threatened by the Scottish secretary, Alister Jack, after the bill was passed – a section 35 order that would prevent the bill being sent for royal assent – has never been used.
It is there for when new powers are felt to impact adversely on legislation reserved to Westminster. The legislation at issue here is the UK Equality Act.
One example given by Whitehall insiders of the potential harm caused is that if a male Scottish prisoner in an English jail received a gender-recognition certificate three months after self-identifying as a woman, the prison could be in breach of the Equality Act for refusing the request to transfer to a women’s jail.
Another is that of schools or colleges refusing to recognise Scottish-born 16- and 17-year-old pupils with certificates when requesting to use single-sex facilities. Employers who refuse to recognise the certificates could also be sued.
That could be the start of all manner of fun and games.
Picking such a fight is a no-brainer for the government.
If the Conservatives were to follow up with a manifesto pledge to abolish the Scottish Parliament, what would be the effect on their chances at the next GE.
Hard to imagine it would make a meaningful difference. They seem likely to lose most if not all of their seats in Scotland anyway.
I was wondering whether it would be a popular policy in England.
I would not be in favour of such a move. Right now I think there does need to be a new referendum. Things have materially changed enough from 2014. You also have a party, the SNP, who are determined to frame everything through the prism of independence. It needs to be better defined what the outcome means than either 2014 or 2016. But it needs to be done to have any chance of lancing the SNP boil, or giving the nation a chance to be a nation again.
No sign of the Tories clawing their way back then.
The only thing that can save the Tories is an ENORMOUS Culture War, with the Left as the diseased Woke people who will brainwash our gallant sons and sacrifice our white daughters etc
It almost certainly won't work, and will definitely be ugly, but they will have a go. Sturgeon has just helped
Oh dear, I fear you do actually believe this.
No one outside the loopy right gives a fuck about anything called 'Culture War' right now; the majority of voters wouldn't have a clue what the term meant.
People care about the cost of living, paying their bills, crap public services and Tory sleaze.
Er, I said
"It almost certainly won't work"
I am well aware this is not top of the inbox for 90% voters. Times are too hard and world politics too dramatic for Trans Rights to make a serious impact on the next election
In a less stressful time then it WILL work. See the USA, already
Forget the science of dunking, is there any scientific literature on the phenomenon of goals being scored in football the second you walk out the room?
It’s a related technology to the one that makes the phone go to answer phone after you’ve rushed across the entire house. Just as your touch it…
"Who decides that the workday is from 9 to 5, instead of 11 to 4? Who decides that the hemlines will be below the knee this year and short again next year? Who draws up the borders, controls the currency, handles all of the decisions that happen transparently around us?" "I don't know." "Ah! I'm with them. Same group, different department….
Yesterday, I was charged with breach of the Public Order Act for my objection in #Oxford in September to the proclamation of Charles Windsor as king (the police waited 3 months before charging me). I will be in court on 31st January to plead Not Guilty.
No sign of the Tories clawing their way back then.
The only thing that can save the Tories is an ENORMOUS Culture War, with the Left as the diseased Woke people who will brainwash our gallant sons and sacrifice our white daughters etc
It almost certainly won't work, and will definitely be ugly, but they will have a go. Sturgeon has just helped
Oh dear, I fear you do actually believe this.
No one outside the loopy right gives a fuck about anything called 'Culture War' right now; the majority of voters wouldn't have a clue what the term meant.
People care about the cost of living, paying their bills, crap public services and Tory sleaze.
For now, a Labour government however would then have to take the blame for the first 3 and face an anti Woke populist Tory opposition on Leon's plan
I don't think this is grievance-farming by Sturgeon who wants a source of division with SW1 - or, if it is, this motivation is down the list and a happy by-product
The risks are too great and the downsides too obvious. Also, Sturgeon is smart and she will see the potential problems of the legislation
The only conclusion is that she really means this. She believes in all this. She is seriously Woke
Now that the legislation is passed it will be interesting to see how J K Rowling and the Women won't Wheesht folk react. Will the issue vanish in the rear-view mirror or become a running sore for Sturgeon? (This assumes UKG doesn't go full tonto on it).
No sign of the Tories clawing their way back then.
The only thing that can save the Tories is an ENORMOUS Culture War, with the Left as the diseased Woke people who will brainwash our gallant sons and sacrifice our white daughters etc
It almost certainly won't work, and will definitely be ugly, but they will have a go. Sturgeon has just helped
Only one who could do that really is Boris.
Sunak and Hunt are far too metropolitan liberal for that.
Kemi!
Possibly, though only Boris could really stir up the gammon anti Woke, or Farage.
Meanwhile a woman is arrested just for praying in a London street!
Comments
We are dealing with a very frustrated and volatile electorate.
Most polls have RefUK on 5 to 10% now and under FPTP most of that will go back to the Tories during a general election campaign
I see from his twitter feed that the January 6th riots were Pelosi's fault. Because lack of proper planning for a riot is as responsible as urging it on.
*ahem*
This is beyond backwards.
https://twitter.com/JamesEsses/status/1606004888353136640
The Battersea Poltergeist is SUPERB. And what a story
As a former Labour MP, I simply cannot explain why a party that once championed women's rights has so readily adopted this anti-women stance
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/12/22/labour-will-pay-supporting-nicola-sturgeons-trans-crusade/
The New Labour government had a golden economic period to manage.
Not so now.
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/plh4depnh8/Times_Scot_Gender_221209.pdf
That, and the UK Government is mulling using never before deployed veto powers to frustrate the Scottish Parliament, by preventing the bill being sent for Royal Assent, according to reports this evening. The grounds apparently being that it potentially creates conflict with reserved powers. As reported by The Guardian,
...the power threatened by the Scottish secretary, Alister Jack, after the bill was passed – a section 35 order that would prevent the bill being sent for royal assent – has never been used.
It is there for when new powers are felt to impact adversely on legislation reserved to Westminster. The legislation at issue here is the UK Equality Act.
One example given by Whitehall insiders of the potential harm caused is that if a male Scottish prisoner in an English jail received a gender-recognition certificate three months after self-identifying as a woman, the prison could be in breach of the Equality Act for refusing the request to transfer to a women’s jail.
Another is that of schools or colleges refusing to recognise Scottish-born 16- and 17-year-old pupils with certificates when requesting to use single-sex facilities. Employers who refuse to recognise the certificates could also be sued.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/dec/22/westminster-plays-high-stakes-game-over-gender-recognition-bill
That could be the start of all manner of fun and games.
"HUGE: The US Senate just voted UNANIMOUSLY to send recovered oligarch assets to Ukraine! Russia will pay for the war!"
https://twitter.com/apmassaro3/status/1605990046930046976
Some great tracks on there, even if sadly without Christine McVie.
Zelensky's powers of persuasion must be even greater than we realised.
A grandmother is charging her family for Christmas dinner to help cover costs.
Caroline Duddridge, 63, from Fairwater in Cardiff, said she makes the adults fork out up to £15 and her youngest grandchildren £2.50.
"If you don't pay by 1 December, you're not coming."
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-64063387
But they still returned 257 MPs in 2010.
I’d expect the Conservatives to clear 200 MP’s in 2024. Even now, the centre right is polling about 33-35%.
Total wipeouts only happen when a party is eclipsed by another party on its own side, like Labour replacing the Liberals.
Although fireworks for Halloween? Has bonfire night been marginalised this much?
Picking such a fight is a no-brainer for the government.
The bigger issue for some Republicans is spending US money on Ukraine; spending Russian money not so much of a problem.
And there won’t be unanimity in the House.
Or Le Pen's Party overtaking Les Republicains in France or Brothers of Italy Forza Italia in Italy.
Or on the left in France Melenchon's Party overtaking the French Socialist Party or in Scotland the SNP Scottish Labour
https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/vote_menu_117_2.htm
Possible that the tweet is referring to a unanimous consent motion, which does NOT require roll call vote, instead passes if there is zero objection on floor when raised.
Anyway, hardly a tough vote, to send somebody else's money to Kyiv instead of Moscow. If anything, may give some A-holes who vote AGAINST actual funding & other support for UKR some cover.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/73ab6b80-821f-11ed-933d-2ad94f4b2285
https://www.vice.com/en/article/pkg9d7/the-impossibly-nerdy-online-game-thats-fixing-the-brains-of-media-twitter
25.
Talking of which;
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 51% (+4)
CON: 25% (-1)
LDM: 7% (-2)
REF: 6% (=)
GRN: 5% (-1)
SNP: 4% (-1)
Via @Omnisis, On 22 December,
Changes w/ 15 December.
https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1605981261603909633
The 2005 and 2009 Ashes victories are down to me.
MoonRabbit and Big John please explain.
Have the courage to double down on your convictions.
https://twitter.com/djstrouse/status/1605963129220841473
It feels a bit like arguing with some PBers.
https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1605969322970529793
Looking forward to a few days off..
If they'd only saved it for his winning of the T20 WC, rather than an hour leading to a different sort of WC.
Fifa is investigating how celebrity chef Salt Bae and a number of other people gained "undue access" to the pitch at the end of the World Cup final in Qatar.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/64071206
Respect views of those who are sincere in their strong beliefs, but WAY less respectful of those who are WAY over-milking it for (as they fondly hope) political advantage.
Of course am old enough to recall how a (dare I say it?) a generation ago (!) the GOP used to highlight the San Francisco Gay Pride Parade in campaign commercials.
To a bit of short-term success, but long-term abject failure.
SKS & co will be heartbroken that a former Labour MP who advised voters to back Boris has turned against them.
Trying to get the kids down whilst I start a mini lash with a set of badger ales.
Then, Back to the Future.
The risks are too great and the downsides too obvious. Also, Sturgeon is smart and she will see the potential problems of the legislation
The only conclusion is that she really means this. She believes in all this. She is seriously Woke
https://twitter.com/Sachk0/status/1081430415129243649
It isn't popular, but to most of them it isn't something that figures in their daily lives.
2010
Labour Tom Harris 20,736 51.7 +4.5
SNP Malcolm Fleming 8,078 20.1 +7.5
2015
SNP Stewart McDonald 26,773 54.9 +34.8
Labour Tom Harris 14,504 29.7 -22.0
If you are minded to be Freudian, Sturgeon has been publicly wearing the wrong clothes all her life, to preserve her career. I think we have the psychic source of this legislation, pushed through against the obvious wishes of Scotland
Do we have any serious evidence for this? In 2015, there was only a tiny move back from UKIP to the Conservatives. In 1997, Referendum polled just 2.6% but supposedly "lost" the Conservatives 10 seats.
IF Reform are, for example, strongest in areas of traditional Conservative strength such as Eastern England, it may not make too much difference.
This Bill is as popular as a cup of cold sick.
I think.
IMHO, a lot of UKIP voters shifted over to the Conservatives, from 2014-15.
"I’m screaming to bits. Trans friends in the west coast of the US do not understand why there are so many women on the left here are so transphobic. I don’t either. My daughter has three mums. And she’s proud."
Your daughter is also on Xanax
It almost certainly won't work, and will definitely be ugly, but they will have a go. Sturgeon has just helped
Conservative mid term troughs usually flatten after 36 months after the election so this should be as bad as it gets but the degree of recovery is the big question. From the disastrous mid 1995 polls the Conservative recovery was slight - on the May 1995 locals, Labour were predicted to win over 400 seats and the Conservatives 150 which wasn't far off the truth.
I'd have loved to have seen polling from mid-1973 using today's more sophisticated sampling methodology - this was a time of big Liberal by-election wins.
As a counter point, the Conservatives were regularly third in polls in 1986 but in June 1987 won a majority of 101 seats.
Sunak and Hunt are far too elite metropolitan liberal for that.
No one outside the loopy right gives a fuck about anything called 'Culture War' right now; the majority of voters wouldn't have a clue what the term meant.
People care about the cost of living, paying their bills, crap public services and Tory sleaze.
https://twitter.com/dtxdaily/status/1605712973670105088
TransWokeShite is the one REALLY difficult issue for Labour, everything else Starmer has neutralised rather well. He can't neutralise this as Labourite activists are Way Woke and they care too much
This could help the Tories to win the next election but one
Meanwhile a woman is arrested just for praying in a London street!
https://twitter.com/NileGardiner/status/1605985613227991040?s=20&t=jXDSJFf741rWW_7st0Gbbg
"It almost certainly won't work"
I am well aware this is not top of the inbox for 90% voters. Times are too hard and world politics too dramatic for Trans Rights to make a serious impact on the next election
In a less stressful time then it WILL work. See the USA, already
I think I've done ok though; I've had about a day's pay in cash, loads of chocolates and a couple of bottles
Also, most of those have come with a thanks specifically for me being so cheerful
I try to be cheerful, polite and helpful
It's been lovely to have been thanked so often for my cheeriness
Maybe I could act
"Who decides that the workday is from 9 to 5, instead of 11 to 4? Who decides that the hemlines will be below the knee this year and short again next year? Who draws up the borders, controls the currency, handles all of the decisions that happen transparently around us?"
"I don't know."
"Ah! I'm with them. Same group, different department….
Yesterday, I was charged with breach of the Public Order Act for my objection in #Oxford in September to the proclamation of Charles Windsor as king (the police waited 3 months before charging me). I will be in court on 31st January to plead Not Guilty.
#DefendDissent
#NotMyKing
https://twitter.com/SymonHill/status/1605888172470173697
I'm going to have so much fun at the coronation pointing out the hypocrisy of the adulterers.