politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories are right to take heart from today’s YouGov lead

TheScreamingEagles said:

bigjohnowls said:

taffys said:

Labour supporters relying on the polls reminds me of the hero of the Scottish play relying on the witches.

Burham Wood come to Dunsinane???....not in this lifetime mate...

Wheras Tories relying on the one poll that puts them 1 pt ahead despite all the others showing them to be behind.

Is a lot like YES

independence (tory win) clearly nailed on

There's currently two pollsters whose last poll has the Tories ahead.

Which one have I missed?

Saw YG last night

bigjohnowls said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

bigjohnowls said:

taffys said:

Labour supporters relying on the polls reminds me of the hero of the Scottish play relying on the witches.

Burham Wood come to Dunsinane???....not in this lifetime mate...

Wheras Tories relying on the one poll that puts them 1 pt ahead despite all the others showing them to be behind.

Is a lot like YES

independence (tory win) clearly nailed on

There's currently two pollsters whose last poll has the Tories ahead.

Which one have I missed?

Saw YG last night

The Ipsos-Mori poll that was out a few weeks ago.

TheScreamingEagles said:

There's currently two pollsters whose last poll has the Tories ahead.

During the Tory conference. By 1pt. Last week's Labour conference saw Labour leads of 6pts. Next week will show the yellow pox up.

Have some people forgotten the basic maxim - polls during conference season are skewed.

FrankBooth said:

BenM said:

The populus Lab share this morning looks remarkably like the Yougov Lab share from just 48 hours ago.

What happened to YouGov yesterday?

Just saying.

When was the populus research done?

Most of the Yougov polling will have been done yesterday. The Populus polling will be more evenly divided between the two days.

chestnut said:

bigjohnowls said:

Give it up

LAB lead amongst workers

Tory lead with pensioners (benefits)

Which category are you in?

You don't like what IPSOS-MORI tell you?

I'm a private sector worker, a homeowner and I have decades until I get a pension, not that any of that is your business.

You mean the one that shows workers back LAB?

and the majority on benefits in the form of pensions back the Tories?

The most recent findings from each company have:-

Populus Lab 38, Con 33
Yougov Con 35, Lab 34
Com Res Lab 35, Con 29,
Ahcroft Lab 32, Con 32,
Opinium Lab 34, Con 32,

Averaging Lab 34.6%, Con 32.2%.

Alistair said:

Scott_P said:

The Herald, the Nats paper of choice before the No vote...

Sunday Herald was the paper to back Yes, the Herald firmly backed a No.

Amazing the ignorance shown on here by some of those who insist on pronouncing on matters Scottish.

TOPPING said:

SimonStClare said:

Plato said:

Golly - apparently they had a Falklands number plate on it. What a hoot!

Jeremy Clarkson, Richard Hammond and Richard May flee Argentina under police escort after locals stone cars and Top Gear crew in a row over a Porsche number plate

Not quite - It was a UK number plate that ended with the letters FKL according to the T'graph.

H982 FKL

I mean it's a lot worse than G4 VIN if you are called Gavin but personalised plates that try to approximate names, etc are all pretty naff.

My favorite story (no idea if it is urban myth) is that the Queen owns all the licence plates beginning XHM and gives them out to her friends as appropriate (Constantine of Greece is is XHM1, Giray Khan of Crimea is XHM2, etc etc). I was told it by Giray Khan's grandson, but he may have been making it up...

Sean_F said:

The most recent findings from each company have:-

Populus Lab 38, Con 33
Yougov Con 35, Lab 34
Com Res Lab 35, Con 29,
Ahcroft Lab 32, Con 32,
Opinium Lab 34, Con 32,

Averaging Lab 34.6%, Con 32.2%.

I think I will update that on a regular basis just to see who would be PM!!!

Theuniondivvie said:

Alistair said:

Scott_P said:

The Herald, the Nats paper of choice before the No vote...

Sunday Herald was the paper to back Yes, the Herald firmly backed a No.

Amazing the ignorance shown on here by some of those who insist on pronouncing on matters Scottish.

Tipping point?

The striking thing about that Yougov 'rogue' tory lead wasn;t the tory number at 35, it was the UKIP number at 14 at the same time.

That's half the electorate, right there.

Mr. Penguin, welcome to (posting on) pb.com.

Theuniondivvie said:

Alistair said:

Scott_P said:

The Herald, the Nats paper of choice before the No vote...

Sunday Herald was the paper to back Yes, the Herald firmly backed a No.

Amazing the ignorance shown on here by some of those who insist on pronouncing on matters Scottish.

Simply amazing ignorance;
http://www.heraldscotland.com/cultural-policies-lead-irvine-welsh-to-back-snp-1.827460
I'm still waiting for an apology.

Penguin said:

My first comment here rather than just reading the blog etc.

Anyone else noticed that today's YouGov shows 23% of 2010 LDs said CON (with 29% LAB, 9% UKIP)?

Compare to 25 Sep YouGov which had a 6 point LAB lead. There only 8% 2010 LDs said CON, 35% LAB, 14% UKIP.

Enough to (partially) explain the swing?

If this 23% is sustained (and it's not reflected in Populus, which has only 8% of 2010 LDs saying CON, and on a random look through past YouGovs I can't find a comparable figure), it would give the Tories a comparable "electoral crutch" to Labour. Suspect it won't be though and that 23% will be a blip.

I did notice that, what I compared it to was the August poll when the Tories and Lab were tied.

Then it was 16% of 2010 Lib Dems who expressed a voting intention now planned to vote Tory (29% said they were voting Lab)

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/ey50z9xm3y/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-140814.pdf

bigjohnowls said:

Sean_F said:

The most recent findings from each company have:-

Populus Lab 38, Con 33
Yougov Con 35, Lab 34
Com Res Lab 35, Con 29,
Ahcroft Lab 32, Con 32,
Opinium Lab 34, Con 32,

Averaging Lab 34.6%, Con 32.2%.

I think I will update that on a regular basis just to see who would be PM!!!

Please don't.

You already spam us with your EICIPM posts already which don't tell anyone anything. We all know applying poll numbers showing a Labour lead with UNS to electoral calculus show that outcome.

Garethofthevale said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alistair said:

Scott_P said:

The Herald, the Nats paper of choice before the No vote...

Sunday Herald was the paper to back Yes, the Herald firmly backed a No.

Amazing the ignorance shown on here by some of those who insist on pronouncing on matters Scottish.

Mr Divvie - what is your current prediction for Scotland at GE 2015?

Down thread I said my gut guess at the moment is SNP 15-ish, Cons 2. I'd add LDs 3 and therefore suggest Lab 39ish, but very much blindfold dart throwing at this stage.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alistair said:

Scott_P said:

The Herald, the Nats paper of choice before the No vote...

Sunday Herald was the paper to back Yes, the Herald firmly backed a No.

Amazing the ignorance shown on here by some of those who insist on pronouncing on matters Scottish.

Tipping point?

The PB echo..

So in other words, we PB Tories were right about what the Indyref result would be, unlike you Nats, who were on the ground.

So our echo chamber was a damn sight more accurate than the Nat echo chamber.

Keep listening to us, you Nats might learn something.

Sorry to put the boot in, but even Rogerdamus, got the referendum result spot on.

I was told us PB Tories are always wrong and that we never learn...... Now I don't know what to think.

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alistair said:

Scott_P said:

The Herald, the Nats paper of choice before the No vote...

Sunday Herald was the paper to back Yes, the Herald firmly backed a No.

Amazing the ignorance shown on here by some of those who insist on pronouncing on matters Scottish.

Tipping point?

The PB echo..

So in other words, we PB Tories were right about what the Indyref result would be, unlike you Nats, who were on the ground.

So our echo chamber was a damn sight more accurate than the Nat echo chamber.

Keep listening to us, you Nats might learn something.

Sorry to put the boot in, but even Rogerdamus, got the referendum result spot on.

I was told us PB Tories are always wrong and that we never learn...... Now I don't know what to think.

Can you make sure you're on a plane when the next few ICM phone polls are out.

Theuniondivvie said:

Garethofthevale said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alistair said:

Scott_P said:

The Herald, the Nats paper of choice before the No vote...

Sunday Herald was the paper to back Yes, the Herald firmly backed a No.

Amazing the ignorance shown on here by some of those who insist on pronouncing on matters Scottish.

Mr Divvie - what is your current prediction for Scotland at GE 2015?

Down thread I said my gut guess at the moment is SNP 15-ish, Cons 2. I'd add LDs 3 and therefore suggest Lab 39ish, but very much blindfold dart throwing at this stage.

Usual Nat pie in the sky;
" Alex Salmond was humiliated after his predictions of increasing the number of SNP MPs from seven to 20 fell apart, with the Nationalists winning only six seats." 2010

Theuniondivvie said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alistair said:

Scott_P said:

The Herald, the Nats paper of choice before the No vote...

Sunday Herald was the paper to back Yes, the Herald firmly backed a No.

Amazing the ignorance shown on here by some of those who insist on pronouncing on matters Scottish.

Simply amazing ignorance;
http://www.heraldscotland.com/cultural-policies-lead-irvine-welsh-to-back-snp-1.827460
I'm still waiting for an apology.

And I responded at that time, though as is your wont, you then scuttled off. Your request remains lodged where the sun don't shine.

You were wrong about expat longtime Nat Welsh, admit it.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alistair said:

Scott_P said:

The Herald, the Nats paper of choice before the No vote...

Sunday Herald was the paper to back Yes, the Herald firmly backed a No.

Amazing the ignorance shown on here by some of those who insist on pronouncing on matters Scottish.

Tipping point?

The PB echo..

So in other words, we PB Tories were right about what the Indyref result would be, unlike you Nats, who were on the ground.

So our echo chamber was a damn sight more accurate than the Nat echo chamber.

Keep listening to us, you Nats might learn something.

Sorry to put the boot in, but even Rogerdamus, got the referendum result spot on.

I don't remember 'you' making any predictions, but your use of the PB 'we' is very telling.

MonikerDiCanio said:

Theuniondivvie said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alistair said:

Scott_P said:

The Herald, the Nats paper of choice before the No vote...

Sunday Herald was the paper to back Yes, the Herald firmly backed a No.

Amazing the ignorance shown on here by some of those who insist on pronouncing on matters Scottish.

Simply amazing ignorance;
http://www.heraldscotland.com/cultural-policies-lead-irvine-welsh-to-back-snp-1.827460
I'm still waiting for an apology.

And I responded at that time, though as is your wont, you then scuttled off. Your request remains lodged where the sun don't shine.

You were wrong about expat longtime Nat Welsh, admit it.

God, you're tedious. At the second time of posting:

'But after mouthing off about the Labour Party, it’s only fair that I make a personal declaration as to where my own politics lie today. Like most people, I’ve moved away from my tartan Tory perception of the SNP and accept it as a benign, bourgeois party of the centre-left. Yes, it’s nakedly opportunist, but that factor certainly doesn’t distinguish it in modern politics, and its fairly narrow goal of Scottish independence makes it harder for it to sell out. Nonetheless, its not my party, I’ve never voted for them and would find it hard to do so, for the same reasons I can no longer vote Labour and will obviously never vote Conservative – it’s not in my internationalist DNA. Having long given up on parties, I’m stuck with having my political aspirations for these islands placed squarely in the hands of a new, broadly-based, grass roots campaign led by a different generation, and I wouldn’t want it any other way. I’m now a dedicated ‘phase three’ yes man: let’s get it sorted out. But I want as many of my old buddies, and as many real Labour people on that journey as possible, and for bigger reasons than to deliver a yes vote for social progress on the 18th. That, as I’ve said, is only part of the process. I want them onside, because the core values that they believe in; fairness, justice and democracy, are the only values that a new Scotland -and a new England- can be constructed on.'

http://tinyurl.com/londfkm

Charles said:

RobD said:

I was told us PB Tories are always wrong and that we never learn...... Now I don't know what to think.

You were wrong to believe that...

You used to think you were uncertain but now you're not so sure?

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alistair said:

Scott_P said:

The Herald, the Nats paper of choice before the No vote...

Sunday Herald was the paper to back Yes, the Herald firmly backed a No.

Amazing the ignorance shown on here by some of those who insist on pronouncing on matters Scottish.

Tipping point?

The PB echo..

So in other words, we PB Tories were right about what the Indyref result would be, unlike you Nats, who were on the ground.

So our echo chamber was a damn sight more accurate than the Nat echo chamber.

Keep listening to us, you Nats might learn something.

Sorry to put the boot in, but even Rogerdamus, got the referendum result spot on.

I don't remember 'you' making any predictions, but your use of the PB 'we' is very telling.

I did, I said Yes would get 42% on a 82% turnout

http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbindycomp/results.php?s_Name=tse&button=Search

Theuniondivvie said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Theuniondivvie said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alistair said:

Scott_P said:

The Herald, the Nats paper of choice before the No vote...

Sunday Herald was the paper to back Yes, the Herald firmly backed a No.

Amazing the ignorance shown on here by some of those who insist on pronouncing on matters Scottish.

Simply amazing ignorance;
http://www.heraldscotland.com/cultural-policies-lead-irvine-welsh-to-back-snp-1.827460
I'm still waiting for an apology.

And I responded at that time, though as is your wont, you then scuttled off. Your request remains lodged where the sun don't shine.

You were wrong about expat longtime Nat Welsh, admit it.

God, you're tedious. At the second time of posting.

'But after mouthing off about the Labour Party, it’s only fair that I make a personal declaration as to where my own politics lie today. Like most people, I’ve moved away from my tartan Tory perception of the SNP and accept it as a benign, bourgeois party of the centre-left. Yes, it’s nakedly opportunist, but that factor certainly doesn’t distinguish it in modern politics, and its fairly narrow goal of Scottish independence makes it harder for it to sell out. Nonetheless, its not my party, I’ve never voted for them and would find it hard to do so, for the same reasons I can no longer vote Labour and will obviously never vote Conservative – it’s not in my internationalist DNA. Having long given up on parties, I’m stuck with having my political aspirations for these islands placed squarely in the hands of a new, broadly-based, grass roots campaign led by a different generation, and I wouldn’t want it any other way. I’m now a dedicated ‘phase three’ yes man: let’s get it sorted out. But I want as many of my old buddies, and as many real Labour people on that journey as possible, and for bigger reasons than to deliver a yes vote for social progress on the 18th. That, as I’ve said, is only part of the process. I want them onside, because the core values that they believe in; fairness, justice and democracy, are the only values that a new Scotland -and a new England- can be constructed on.'

http://tinyurl.com/londfkm

The twerp has never voted for your revolting party because he hasn't lived in Scotland for decades. What a creep, sticking his bourbon blighted nose into other people's business.

NickPalmer said:

Charles said:

RobD said:

I was told us PB Tories are always wrong and that we never learn...... Now I don't know what to think.

You were wrong to believe that...

You used to think you were uncertain but now you're not so sure?

I used to be paranoid. Now I *know* they're out to get me

TheScreamingEagles said:

Penguin said:

My first comment here rather than just reading the blog etc.

Anyone else noticed that today's YouGov shows 23% of 2010 LDs said CON (with 29% LAB, 9% UKIP)?

Compare to 25 Sep YouGov which had a 6 point LAB lead. There only 8% 2010 LDs said CON, 35% LAB, 14% UKIP.

Enough to (partially) explain the swing?

If this 23% is sustained (and it's not reflected in Populus, which has only 8% of 2010 LDs saying CON, and on a random look through past YouGovs I can't find a comparable figure), it would give the Tories a comparable "electoral crutch" to Labour. Suspect it won't be though and that 23% will be a blip.

I did notice that, what I compared it to was the August poll when the Tories and Lab were tied.

Then it was 16% of 2010 Lib Dems who expressed a voting intention now planned to vote Tory (29% said they were voting Lab)

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/ey50z9xm3y/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-140814.pdf

Might be something to keep an eye on then if we start to see a few more polls with CON close/tied/ahead. Probably still a blip, but would be interesting if not.

@Plato and others. Thanks. It's Mr Penguin btw...!

taffys said:

''However if UKIP are seeing that logic they must also see that in the vast majority of seats come May a vote for UKIP Is a vote for Labour.''

It will be interesting to see if the thin crust of H&M tory voters vote tactically against labour.

Well, quite. Where have the posts from Tory loyalists espousing tactical voting all gone? Very strange.

state_go_away said:

made my first by- election bet -UKIP to get 40-50% in Clacton. I think the Reckless defection will stop some tories voting UKIP that might have otherwise here . So think UKIP will not get as much as initially though

Most Clacton voters won't have any idea who Reckless is, or what he's like, or that he's defected. We all overestimate that sort of thing here. My impression, maybe wrong, is that CCHQ has written Clacton off and is sending the heavy artillery to Rochester, which is where an opinion poll would be really useful. An interesting quirk is that if Carswell is elected next week, he can move the writ for Rochester, upsetting the "play it long" Tory strategy.

@Cameron Conference Rap - where is it written that this is bad for Cameron?

Most raps include shooting, gansta slang and swearing. There's a risk that (like the Gene Hunt attack) it makes him look quite cool, and crowds out Ed.

Plato said:

Are you going to be in Clacton for the Kippers next week? I keep being cajoled into going for the Blue Team but can't make it. Sounds like great fun, even though I expect us to get thrashed.

Rochester & Strood is another matter... *sharpens knives*

Sean_F said:

Plato said:

*laughing out loud - a lot*

Scott_P said:

The Herald, the Nats paper of choice before the No vote...

NEVER kick a man when he's down," my dad says.

He'd make a terrible politician, my dad.

"Is there ever a better time?" Alex Salmond's opponents seemed to grin as they laced up their best stomping boots for FMQs today.

It was watch-through-your-fingers stuff.

Haunted by the rustle of two million No votes, power draining away faster than the fun from a Yes Scotland results party, and even Nicola Sturgeon, absent on personal business, unable to whisper the answers to him, all the FM lacked was a target on his back.

The Unionists simply couldn't miss.

So for 30 minutes Mr Salmond was thrown down every circle of political hell until eventually he hit rock bottom - being lectured by Ken Macintosh.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/alex-salmond-opponents-put-the-boot-in-at-fmqs.1412272399

As Richard Sharpe put it "When's the best time to kick a man, Patrick? " "When he's down, sir."

I'll be on holiday next week. I'm trying to get to either Clacton or Rochester over the weekend.

Ishmael_X said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Theuniondivvie said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Theuniondivvie said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alistair said:

Scott_P said:

The Herald, the Nats paper of choice before the No vote...

Sunday Herald was the paper to back Yes, the Herald firmly backed a No.

Amazing the ignorance shown on here by some of those who insist on pronouncing on matters Scottish.

Simply amazing ignorance;
http://www.heraldscotland.com/cultural-policies-lead-irvine-welsh-to-back-snp-1.827460
I'm still waiting for an apology.

And I responded at that time, though as is your wont, you then scuttled off. Your request remains lodged where the sun don't shine.

You were wrong about expat longtime Nat Welsh, admit it.

God, you're tedious. At the second time of posting.

'But after mouthing off about the Labour Party, it’s only fair that I make a personal declaration as to where my own politics lie today. Like most people, I’ve moved away from my tartan Tory perception of the SNP and accept it as a benign, bourgeois party of the centre-left. Yes, it’s nakedly opportunist, but that factor certainly doesn’t distinguish it in modern politics, and its fairly narrow goal of Scottish independence makes it harder for it to sell out. Nonetheless, its not my party. Having long given up on parties, I’m stuck with having my political aspirations for these islands placed squarely in the hands of a new, broadly-based, grass roots campaign led by a different generation, and I wouldn’t want it any other way. I’m now a dedicated ‘phase three’ yes man: let’s get it sorted out. But I want as many of my old buddies, and as many real Labour people on that journey as possible, and for bigger reasons than to deliver a yes vote for social progress on the 18th. That, as I’ve said, is only part of the process. I want them onside, because the core values that they believe in; fairness, justice and democracy, are the only values that a new Scotland -and a new England- can be constructed on.'

http://tinyurl.com/londfkm

The twerp has never voted for your revolting party because he hasn't lived in Scotland for decades. What a creep, sticking his bourbon blighted nose into other people's business.

And how is it your business whether he does so or not? He is, by the way, a great and talented writer who has done as much as anyone in his generation to affect the way Scotland sees itself and is seen by others.

Is it your time of the month, perhaps?

Unless it is an in-joke between you and @MonikerDiCanio‌ that comment is out of order.

JosiasJessop said:

another_richard said:

Isn't it Josias Jessop who is so angered that Labour are planning a minister to deal with violence against women and girls and ignoring that against men and boys ?

If so, perhaps he might take a look at what's top of the policies list at the government website for the Minister of State for Policing, Criminal Justice and Victims:

https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/minister-of-state-policing-and-criminal-justice

And at the top of that policies list is 'Ending violence against women and girls in the UK'

Yep, I'd like to see more concentration on male victims as well (and particularly on raising awareness that it happens to boys and men as well. This blindness infects all parties and governments.

But that's a very different thing from having a *minister* looking at women and girls alone. That's a terrible message to send as the prominence is so much greater.

The Home Office's webpage on domestic violence is fairly gender-blind:
https://www.gov.uk/domestic-violence-and-abuse

Fair point JJ.

But has the Conservative party any criticism of Labour's unpleasant idea ?

Sky - Bogus Bomb Detector Scam Pair Sentenced

Good they've had their comeuppance – looking at them, I'd not buy a newspaper from them.

http://news.sky.com/story/1346782/bogus-bomb-detector-scam-pair-sentenced

More details on the Begg case - I'm not a fan of his apparent views, but if we believe in equal rights before the law, he appears to have a case for compensation for wrongful imprisonment:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/02/moazzam-begg-contact-mi5-agents-papers

The case casts a sidelight on our shifting views on Syria - "We support the opposition, by all means go and help them" to "Er, well, maybe we don't support them quite so much, so you're under arrest".

state_go_away said:

made my first by- election bet -UKIP to get 40-50% in Clacton. I think the Reckless defection will stop some tories voting UKIP that might have otherwise here . So think UKIP will not get as much as initially though

state - yes, I think this is probably the value bet at 9/4 with Ladbrokes. What will also undoubtedly help the Tories, perhaps quite significantly, is Dave's quite brilliant Conference speech.
Good luck with your virgin bet!

peter_from_putney said:

state_go_away said:

made my first by- election bet -UKIP to get 40-50% in Clacton. I think the Reckless defection will stop some tories voting UKIP that might have otherwise here . So think UKIP will not get as much as initially though

state - yes, I think this is probably the value bet at 9/4 with Ladbrokes. What will also undoubtedly help the Tories, perhaps quite significantly, is Dave's quite brilliant Conference speech.
Good luck with your virgin bet!

I can't see UKIP getting under 50% in Clacton.

TGOHF said:

TheWatcher said:

oxfordsimon said:

Having just seen this on Guido...

http://order-order.com/2014/10/03/labour-play-the-by-election-race-card-heywood-and-middleton-candidate-liz-mcinnes-white-is-ordinary/

I am not sure whether it was an attempt to play the race card or just a candidate out of her depth in an interview - hard to tell without context

But will be interesting to see if it gets traction

Ah, the lady who claims to work for the NHS, but is really a union pilgrim working within the NHS.

She is truly a Florence Nightingale for the 21st century...

And Cam wants to ring fence NHS spending ??

Protecting the overall NHS budget is fine - doing away with pilgrims is absolutely vital.

That scam has to end once and for all.

MikeK said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another_richard - Why don't you stand as the South Yorkshire Police & Crime Commissioner.

I assume you won't be voting UKIP in that election, as they've chosen as candidate a former South Yorkshire copper who occasionally worked in Rotherham?

I prefer to do things I am good at and I suspect that doesn't include being a PCC.

I did hear the UKIP candidate on the radio a few days ago.

He sounded deeply unimpressive.

I really don't think UKIP would be any more effective in government than the other parties but as they're not going to be in government then they remain a free anti-establishment protest vote.

For the SYPCC, as UKIP provide the only realistic alternative to beating Labour they will unenthusiastically get my vote. I know Labour will be crap but I don't know if UKIP will be if they win. So I'll hope to be pleasantly surprised.

Might I ask who you will vote for Eagles ? As I remember its a STV election so you can vote Con then UKIP.

I haven't made up my mind yet.

I'm on holiday on Election Day. So I might officially abstain and not get a postal ballot.

I don't believe it! About you not voting: I mean where is your fervor?

Looking at the Tory candidate, he's went to the same prep school as I, and he's also worked for the NHS, and given that the Tory party is the the party of the NHS, I shall vote Tory.

I'm not sure who to give my second vote to, I'm annoyed by UKIP and Labour equally.

For all you election gurus, if I put an X against the Tory candidate, and write bastards next to the Labour and UKIP candidates, will my vote still be counted?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alistair said:

Scott_P said:

The Herald, the Nats paper of choice before the No vote...

Sunday Herald was the paper to back Yes, the Herald firmly backed a No.

Amazing the ignorance shown on here by some of those who insist on pronouncing on matters Scottish.

Tipping point?

The PB echo..

So in other words, we PB Tories were right about what the Indyref result would be, unlike you Nats, who were on the ground.

So our echo chamber was a damn sight more accurate than the Nat echo chamber.

Keep listening to us, you Nats might learn something.

Sorry to put the boot in, but even Rogerdamus, got the referendum result spot on.

I don't remember 'you' making any predictions, but your use of the PB 'we' is very telling.

I did, I said no would get 42% on a 82% turnout

http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbindycomp/results.php?s_Name=tse&button=Search

Perhaps a little table of "out of touch posh fop PB Tories" and "feet on the ground understand the real situation Nats" would be instructive?

Sean_F said:

peter_from_putney said:

state_go_away said:

made my first by- election bet -UKIP to get 40-50% in Clacton. I think the Reckless defection will stop some tories voting UKIP that might have otherwise here . So think UKIP will not get as much as initially though

state - yes, I think this is probably the value bet at 9/4 with Ladbrokes. What will also undoubtedly help the Tories, perhaps quite significantly, is Dave's quite brilliant Conference speech.
Good luck with your virgin bet!

I can't see UKIP getting under 50% in Clacton.

I can!