Salmond and SNP are to legislate to prevent councils collecting any more poll tax.
MSM spinning this heavily against the SNP (no change there), but Labour's confused opposition to the move will do them no favours in their (former?) heartlands, particularly as the amount collected last year was less than £400k. Just the usual Labour in Scotland knee-jerk anti-SNP response.
This is another clever move by the SNP in a World where Cameron's conference speech virtually quotes Johan Lamont (of the British Labour Party in Scotland) on a "something for nothing" society.
A fair number of Labour's 29% were public sector workers or benefit recipients scared into voting. They either work in the private sector or have had their fears assuaged.
Still given UKIP's continued strength and likely addition of MPs my expectation of a hung parliament remains.
Labour support is higher than Tory support in the private sector.
Sorry yes I worded my critique poorly - you mentioned in a Labour/SNP way - but if you look at the map of % Yes/No you will see huge areas of the country where No support is very strong but the SNP have seats and Labour probably isn't the challenger. Voters may be tempted to look at the bar graphs in places like Perth and select the challenger most likely to boot the SNP in the Salmonds.
Just how toxic is the SNP after the referendum - that is the question.
If the polls are too be believed, that's not even a question. I'm sure you're getting a different vibe from FollowFollow though.
What polls ?
The polls that show the SNP sustaining a substantial lead in Holyrood after being 7 years in power, and vying with Labour for biggest Westminster vote share. If you've got any other evidence for 'SNP backlash' (apart from you devoutly wishing it), I'd be fascinated to see it.
I'd advise everyone to take Scottish polls with a pinch of salt after they missed the crushing 11% for No just 2 weeks ago.
Mr. Eagles, probably a smart move (he's miles ahead in the polls and doesn't want to replicate the Darling mistake with the second Scottish debate) for the constituency.
However, if UKIP duck debates there it may give ammunition to other parties to say they can't run away from debates then demand to be included later [there's a qualitative difference between a local news/by-election debate and a national/general election one, of course].
Salmond and SNP are to legislate to prevent councils collecting any more poll tax.
MSM spinning this heavily against the SNP (no change there), but Labour's confused opposition to the move will do them no favours in their (former?) heartlands, particularly as the amount collected last year was less than £400k. Just the usual Labour in Scotland knee-jerk anti-SNP response.
This is another clever move by the SNP in a World where Cameron's conference speech virtually quotes Johan Lamont (of the British Labour Party in Scotland) on a "something for nothing" society.
What the SNP are not mentioning is councils going after revenue that isn't "poll tax" debts - from 20 years ago.
I wonder if the voting register will get smaller again after the bills drop through the door in March.
Sorry yes I worded my critique poorly - you mentioned in a Labour/SNP way - but if you look at the map of % Yes/No you will see huge areas of the country where No support is very strong but the SNP have seats and Labour probably isn't the challenger. Voters may be tempted to look at the bar graphs in places like Perth and select the challenger most likely to boot the SNP in the Salmonds.
Just how toxic is the SNP after the referendum - that is the question.
If the polls are too be believed, that's not even a question. I'm sure you're getting a different vibe from FollowFollow though.
What polls ?
The polls that show the SNP sustaining a substantial lead in Holyrood after being 7 years in power, and vying with Labour for biggest Westminster vote share. If you've got any other evidence for 'SNP backlash' (apart from you devoutly wishing it), I'd be fascinated to see it.
I'd advise everyone to take Scottish polls with a pinch of salt after they missed the crushing 11% for No just 2 weeks ago.
In that case the 60-40 brigade should also preserve a dignified silence.
Sorry yes I worded my critique poorly - you mentioned in a Labour/SNP way - but if you look at the map of % Yes/No you will see huge areas of the country where No support is very strong but the SNP have seats and Labour probably isn't the challenger. Voters may be tempted to look at the bar graphs in places like Perth and select the challenger most likely to boot the SNP in the Salmonds.
Just how toxic is the SNP after the referendum - that is the question.
If the polls are too be believed, that's not even a question. I'm sure you're getting a different vibe from FollowFollow though.
What polls ?
The polls that show the SNP sustaining a substantial lead in Holyrood after being 7 years in power, and vying with Labour for biggest Westminster vote share. If you've got any other evidence for 'SNP backlash' (apart from you devoutly wishing it), I'd be fascinated to see it.
I'd advise everyone to take Scottish polls with a pinch of salt after they missed the crushing 11% for No just 2 weeks ago.
In that case the 60-40 brigade should also preserve a dignified silence.
Plus we want polls showing Lab ahead lest Lab decide to ditch their toxic leader
No. That takes months and there's no chance. Plus who would they choose instead? The Labour front bench is not exactly overflowing with 'if only' candidates.
What we need is a brutal and steady monstering of Labour to start NOW. Perceptions take time to morph into voting intentions.
A fair number of Labour's 29% were public sector workers or benefit recipients scared into voting. They either work in the private sector or have had their fears assuaged.
Still given UKIP's continued strength and likely addition of MPs my expectation of a hung parliament remains.
Labour support is higher than Tory support in the private sector.
Public sector [Private sector] Conservative = 21% [21%] Labour = 33% [28%]
My point being that Labour have a lead in both groups.
The only demographic or geographic groups that the Conservatives lead in that poll are: those aged 65+, AB voters and the Midlands. Historically, older AB voters have been more likely to turnout and the Midlands has been seen as the election battleground - so it's not all bad news for the Tories - but the real move in the Tories favour is the continued ageing of society.
The Tories are now the party for the retired. The workers are voting for Labour.
Plus we want polls showing Lab ahead lest Lab decide to ditch their toxic leader
No. That takes months and there's no chance. Plus who would they choose instead? The Labour front bench is not exactly overflowing with 'if only' candidates.
What we need is a brutal and steady monstering of Labour to start NOW. Perceptions take time to morph into voting intentions.
Yes, it would take months. But Alan Johnson would save their bacon (butty).
So did 'the speech' turn things around or are YouGov pants?
.....and as so often only the BBC can spot the difference between froth and a story which is why it's the most respected news organization in the World.
Plus we want polls showing Lab ahead lest Lab decide to ditch their toxic leader
No. That takes months and there's no chance. Plus who would they choose instead? The Labour front bench is not exactly overflowing with 'if only' candidates.
What we need is a brutal and steady monstering of Labour to start NOW. Perceptions take time to morph into voting intentions.
Yes, it would take months. But Alan Johnson would save their bacon (butty).
!!! The postie as PM? Good luck with that. Dave would die laughing if Labour went through the pain of replacing Redward with AJ. You do remember his time as Shadow Chancellor? If Redward is an empty suit AJ is a suit filled with aerogel.
Plus we want polls showing Lab ahead lest Lab decide to ditch their toxic leader
No. That takes months and there's no chance. Plus who would they choose instead? The Labour front bench is not exactly overflowing with 'if only' candidates.
What we need is a brutal and steady monstering of Labour to start NOW. Perceptions take time to morph into voting intentions.
Yes, it would take months. But Alan Johnson would save their bacon (butty).
!!! The postie as PM? Good luck with that. Dave would die laughing if Labour went through the pain of replacing Redward with AJ. You do remember his time as Shadow Chancellor? If Redward is an empty suit AJ is a suit filled with aerogel.
To be fair to Alan Johnson, and I've always liked him, his tenure as Shadow Chancellor was overshadowed when he found out his wife had been bumping uglies with his bodyguard
"There are five critical and high-risk seats under direct threat by UKIP, for both Labour and the Conservatives each:
• Labour seats under direct UKIP threat: Great Grimsby, Dudley North, Plymouth Moor View, Rother Valley, Rotherham
• Con seats under direct UKIP threat: Clacton, South Thanet, Thurrock, Great Yarmouth, Waveney
Six critical and very serious indirect threat seats that the Conservatives might lose to Labour as a result of the UKIP threat: Warwickshire North, Cardiff North, Broxtowe, Stroud, Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire, and Pudsey
Sixteen critical and very serious indirect threat seats which Labour might lose to Conservatives as a result of UKIP-Labour considerers: Southampton Itchen, Great Grimsby, Walsall North, Plymouth Moor View, Telford, Dudley North, Halifax, Wolverhampton NE, Birmingham Edgbaston, Blackpool South, Walsall South, Leicester West, Nottingham South, Southampton Test, Birming- ham Northfield, and Wakefield
Four critical and very serious indirect threat Labour target seats which it could fail to win as a result of UKIP-Labour considerers: Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, Carlisle, Lincoln and Ipswich."
The only demographic or geographic groups that the Conservatives lead in that poll are: those aged 65+, AB voters and the Midlands. Historically, older AB voters have been more likely to turnout and the Midlands has been seen as the election battleground - so it's not all bad news for the Tories - but the real move in the Tories favour is the continued ageing of society.
The Tories are now the party for the retired. The workers are voting for Labour.
You seem to be placing all your faith in one pollster.
IPSOS (telephone polling)
Private Sector: Tory 42: Lab 29 FT Workers: Tory 37: Lab 33 (Labour lead among PT workers - more likely to be benefit recipients) Homeowners: Tory 38, Lab 28
Labour have strong leads in the public sector, among the claimant state and among renters - especially in social housing.
When I look at the unweighted numbers of many polls there appears to be an incredible over-subscription of public sector workers and 2010 Labour voters in some.
YouGov had a poll the other day, where there was massive regional oversubscription in London and Scotland.
The more I look at the polls, especially online ones, the more wary I am of their accuracy and the scope for them being targeted by activists whilst failing to connect with ordinary people.
Plus we want polls showing Lab ahead lest Lab decide to ditch their toxic leader
No. That takes months and there's no chance. Plus who would they choose instead? The Labour front bench is not exactly overflowing with 'if only' candidates.
What we need is a brutal and steady monstering of Labour to start NOW. Perceptions take time to morph into voting intentions.
Yes, it would take months. But Alan Johnson would save their bacon (butty).
!!! The postie as PM? Good luck with that. Dave would die laughing if Labour went through the pain of replacing Redward with AJ. You do remember his time as Shadow Chancellor? If Redward is an empty suit AJ is a suit filled with aerogel.
To be fair to Alan Johnson, and I've always liked him, his tenure as Shadow Chancellor was overshadowed when he found out his wife had been bumping uglies with his bodyguard
Yes - that can't have been easy. And he is likable. As is Redward. But no PM. Either of them.
"It is a question of "ownership" of the current coalition's achievements."
Do you think if Lib Dems considered the coalition to have produced 'achievements' they would still be on 7%?
I suspect they feel rather like the Tate did about taking 'ownership' of Merda d'artista.
It is a big ask. But the 2010 Lab=>LD switchers were, after all, sick to the back teeth with Lab and were looking to the LDs to make good on all their bonkers lefty promises. Which of course they were never going to be able to.
This angered those switchers who thought we may as well head back to Lab.
But we are more or less at the same place as we were then (which doesn't necessarily reflect well on the Cons, or at least the public discourse on how f****d we were/are).
Both Lab and Cons are promising austerity with Lab being a bit more anti-business (in @NickPalmer and Lab's view "business" has nothing to do with "taxpayers") but both agreeing, necessarily, on the direction of travel.
Which leaves once more same old Lab and the possibility of the LDs as the moderating force. Because a vote for LDs gives them a shot at continuing power (and I wouldn't underestimate the narrative they will use as to how they have civilised the nasty party) while a vote for Lab has not been earned by Lab.
"There are five critical and high-risk seats under direct threat by UKIP, for both Labour and the Conservatives each:
• Labour seats under direct UKIP threat: Great Grimsby, Dudley North, Plymouth Moor View, Rother Valley, Rotherham
• Con seats under direct UKIP threat: Clacton, South Thanet, Thurrock, Great Yarmouth, Waveney
Six critical and very serious indirect threat seats that the Conservatives might lose to Labour as a result of the UKIP threat: Warwickshire North, Cardiff North, Broxtowe, Stroud, Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire, and Pudsey
Sixteen critical and very serious indirect threat seats which Labour might lose to Conservatives as a result of UKIP-Labour considerers: Southampton Itchen, Great Grimsby, Walsall North, Plymouth Moor View, Telford, Dudley North, Halifax, Wolverhampton NE, Birmingham Edgbaston, Blackpool South, Walsall South, Leicester West, Nottingham South, Southampton Test, Birming- ham Northfield, and Wakefield
Four critical and very serious indirect threat Labour target seats which it could fail to win as a result of UKIP-Labour considerers: Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, Carlisle, Lincoln and Ipswich."
"There are five critical and high-risk seats under direct threat by UKIP, for both Labour and the Conservatives each:
• Labour seats under direct UKIP threat: Great Grimsby, Dudley North, Plymouth Moor View, Rother Valley, Rotherham
• Con seats under direct UKIP threat: Clacton, South Thanet, Thurrock, Great Yarmouth, Waveney
Six critical and very serious indirect threat seats that the Conservatives might lose to Labour as a result of the UKIP threat: Warwickshire North, Cardiff North, Broxtowe, Stroud, Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire, and Pudsey
Sixteen critical and very serious indirect threat seats which Labour might lose to Conservatives as a result of UKIP-Labour considerers: Southampton Itchen, Great Grimsby, Walsall North, Plymouth Moor View, Telford, Dudley North, Halifax, Wolverhampton NE, Birmingham Edgbaston, Blackpool South, Walsall South, Leicester West, Nottingham South, Southampton Test, Birming- ham Northfield, and Wakefield
Four critical and very serious indirect threat Labour target seats which it could fail to win as a result of UKIP-Labour considerers: Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, Carlisle, Lincoln and Ipswich."
No way will Leicester West be other than Labour.
Waveney isn't going to go UKIP, Great Yarmouth is unlikely. I suggest Lincolnshire is more likely.
Plus we want polls showing Lab ahead lest Lab decide to ditch their toxic leader
No. That takes months and there's no chance. Plus who would they choose instead? The Labour front bench is not exactly overflowing with 'if only' candidates.
What we need is a brutal and steady monstering of Labour to start NOW. Perceptions take time to morph into voting intentions.
Yes, it would take months. But Alan Johnson would save their bacon (butty).
!!! The postie as PM? Good luck with that. Dave would die laughing if Labour went through the pain of replacing Redward with AJ. You do remember his time as Shadow Chancellor? If Redward is an empty suit AJ is a suit filled with aerogel.
AJ was the Minister that made Stafford a foundation Trust, replaced by Burnham who started the investigations.
'No. That takes months and there's no chance. Plus who would they choose instead? The Labour front bench is not exactly overflowing with 'if only' candidates.'
As Labour's GE focus is on the NHS surely Andy Stafford would be a shoo-in.
Let's say in the election Labour poll around 31%-32% and the Tories get 36%, but due to the dodgy boundaries and lack of EV4EL manage to get a small working majority. Would you happily back Labour as having a mandate to govern?
I have a feeling such a result long term would do them no good whatsoever.
Looking at recent ICMs Labour appear to have a lead of about 15% among the under 65s. Given that about 80% of people work in the private sector, I'd be amazed if the Tories had much of a lead amongst them.
The only demographic or geographic groups that the Conservatives lead in that poll are: those aged 65+, AB voters and the Midlands. Historically, older AB voters have been more likely to turnout and the Midlands has been seen as the election battleground - so it's not all bad news for the Tories - but the real move in the Tories favour is the continued ageing of society.
The Tories are now the party for the retired. The workers are voting for Labour.
You seem to be placing all your faith in one pollster.
IPSOS (telephone polling)
Private Sector: Tory 42: Lab 29 FT Workers: Tory 37: Lab 33 (Labour lead among PT workers - more likely to be benefit recipients) Homeowners: Tory 38, Lab 28
Labour have strong leads in the public sector, among the claimant state and among renters - especially in social housing.
When I look at the unweighted numbers of many polls there appears to be an incredible over-subscription of public sector workers and 2010 Labour voters in some.
YouGov had a poll the other day, where there was massive regional oversubscription in London and Scotland.
The more I look at the polls, especially online ones, the more wary I am of their accuracy and the scope for them being targeted by activists whilst failing to connect with ordinary people.
I forgot that Mori also do a breakdown for private/public sector. I checked Yougov, ICM and Ashcroft, but none of them provided that detail.
While that's two things I've been wrong on here so far today, at least I hope I was right about the first statement I made...
Golly - apparently they had a Falklands number plate on it. What a hoot!
Jeremy Clarkson, Richard Hammond and Richard May flee Argentina under police escort after locals stone cars and Top Gear crew in a row over a Porsche number plate
Sorry yes I worded my critique poorly - you mentioned in a Labour/SNP way - but if you look at the map of % Yes/No you will see huge areas of the country where No support is very strong but the SNP have seats and Labour probably isn't the challenger. Voters may be tempted to look at the bar graphs in places like Perth and select the challenger most likely to boot the SNP in the Salmonds.
Just how toxic is the SNP after the referendum - that is the question.
If the polls are too be believed, that's not even a question. I'm sure you're getting a different vibe from FollowFollow though.
What polls ?
The polls that show the SNP sustaining a substantial lead in Holyrood after being 7 years in power, and vying with Labour for biggest Westminster vote share. If you've got any other evidence for 'SNP backlash' (apart from you devoutly wishing it), I'd be fascinated to see it.
I'd advise everyone to take Scottish polls with a pinch of salt after they missed the crushing 11% for No just 2 weeks ago.
In that case the 60-40 brigade should also preserve a dignified silence.
Mr. Royale, might I tempt you to peruse the Morris Dancer Party manifesto? It is replete with sensible policies for a happier Britain.
Just checked, and it actually includes this (relevant to a recent discussion): The reversion to proper imperial measurements, for weights, distance, fluid measures and money.
Mr. Royale, might I tempt you to peruse the Morris Dancer Party manifesto? It is replete with sensible policies for a happier Britain.
Just checked, and it actually includes this (relevant to a recent discussion): The reversion to proper imperial measurements, for weights, distance, fluid measures and money.
Sorry yes I worded my critique poorly - you mentioned in a Labour/SNP way - but if you look at the map of % Yes/No you will see huge areas of the country where No support is very strong but the SNP have seats and Labour probably isn't the challenger. Voters may be tempted to look at the bar graphs in places like Perth and select the challenger most likely to boot the SNP in the Salmonds.
Just how toxic is the SNP after the referendum - that is the question.
If the polls are too be believed, that's not even a question. I'm sure you're getting a different vibe from FollowFollow though.
What polls ?
The polls that show the SNP sustaining a substantial lead in Holyrood after being 7 years in power, and vying with Labour for biggest Westminster vote share. If you've got any other evidence for 'SNP backlash' (apart from you devoutly wishing it), I'd be fascinated to see it.
I'd advise everyone to take Scottish polls with a pinch of salt after they missed the crushing 11% for No just 2 weeks ago.
In that case the 60-40 brigade should also preserve a dignified silence.
Let's say in the election Labour poll around 31%-32% and the Tories get 36%, but due to the dodgy boundaries and lack of EV4EL manage to get a small working majority. Would you happily back Labour as having a mandate to govern?
I have a feeling such a result long term would do them no good whatsoever.
The likelihood of Labour winning 325+ seats on those numbers is very very remote.
Golly - apparently they had a Falklands number plate on it. What a hoot!
Jeremy Clarkson, Richard Hammond and Richard May flee Argentina under police escort after locals stone cars and Top Gear crew in a row over a Porsche number plate
Not quite - It was a UK number plate that ended with the letters FKL according to the T'graph.
Let's say in the election Labour poll around 31%-32% and the Tories get 36%, but due to the dodgy boundaries and lack of EV4EL manage to get a small working majority. Would you happily back Labour as having a mandate to govern?
I have a feeling such a result long term would do them no good whatsoever.
The likelihood of Labour winning 325+ seats on those numbers is very very remote.
Ok maybe the numbers don't quite add up, but you get what I mean. Would Labour be happy with governing on a significantly lower vote share, whilst using Scottish votes to pass English legislation?
It's a very odd size - the sort that looks like A4 but isn't.
Foolscap is lined, legal-size paper (a paper size found only in North America). It is called foolscap because, in the 18th century, folio-sized paper had the watermark of a fool's cap on it.
In the UK, foolscap paper is 13" X 8" (c 330mm X 203mm), but paper of the size is now very rarely used, being superseded by A4 (297 x 210). Older people may call A4 "foolscap". Nevertheless, ring binders, lever arch files, suspended files, and other filing related things still use the size.
Sorry yes I worded my critique poorly - you mentioned in a Labour/SNP way - but if you look at the map of % Yes/No you will see huge areas of the country where No support is very strong but the SNP have seats and Labour probably isn't the challenger. Voters may be tempted to look at the bar graphs in places like Perth and select the challenger most likely to boot the SNP in the Salmonds.
Just how toxic is the SNP after the referendum - that is the question.
If the polls are too be believed, that's not even a question. I'm sure you're getting a different vibe from FollowFollow though.
What polls ?
The polls that show the SNP sustaining a substantial lead in Holyrood after being 7 years in power, and vying with Labour for biggest Westminster vote share. If you've got any other evidence for 'SNP backlash' (apart from you devoutly wishing it), I'd be fascinated to see it.
I'd advise everyone to take Scottish polls with a pinch of salt after they missed the crushing 11% for No just 2 weeks ago.
In that case the 60-40 brigade should also preserve a dignified silence.
better 4.7% out than 12% out..
Err, the 60-40 brigade were 9.4% out.
What were the 52-48 yes out by then ? 17 % ?
Either we are talking about the absolute difference (your crushing 11%) or we are talking about the Yes response level (in which case Yes missed out by 5.3%)
Predictions 52-48 to Yes were out 14.6% on absolute difference or 7.3% on Yes response level
The only demographic or geographic groups that the Conservatives lead in that poll are: those aged 65+, AB voters and the Midlands. Historically, older AB voters have been more likely to turnout and the Midlands has been seen as the election battleground - so it's not all bad news for the Tories - but the real move in the Tories favour is the continued ageing of society.
The Tories are now the party for the retired. The workers are voting for Labour.
You seem to be placing all your faith in one pollster.
IPSOS (telephone polling)
Private Sector: Tory 42: Lab 29 FT Workers: Tory 37: Lab 33 (Labour lead among PT workers - more likely to be benefit recipients) Homeowners: Tory 38, Lab 28
Labour have strong leads in the public sector, among the claimant state and among renters - especially in social housing.
When I look at the unweighted numbers of many polls there appears to be an incredible over-subscription of public sector workers and 2010 Labour voters in some.
YouGov had a poll the other day, where there was massive regional oversubscription in London and Scotland.
The more I look at the polls, especially online ones, the more wary I am of their accuracy and the scope for them being targeted by activists whilst failing to connect with ordinary people.
Golly - apparently they had a Falklands number plate on it. What a hoot!
Jeremy Clarkson, Richard Hammond and Richard May flee Argentina under police escort after locals stone cars and Top Gear crew in a row over a Porsche number plate
Not quite - It was a UK number plate that ended with the letters FKL according to the T'graph.
H982 FKL
I mean it's a lot worse than G4 VIN if you are called Gavin but personalised plates that try to approximate names, etc are all pretty naff.
The Herald, the Nats paper of choice before the No vote...
NEVER kick a man when he's down," my dad says.
He'd make a terrible politician, my dad.
"Is there ever a better time?" Alex Salmond's opponents seemed to grin as they laced up their best stomping boots for FMQs today.
It was watch-through-your-fingers stuff.
Haunted by the rustle of two million No votes, power draining away faster than the fun from a Yes Scotland results party, and even Nicola Sturgeon, absent on personal business, unable to whisper the answers to him, all the FM lacked was a target on his back.
The Unionists simply couldn't miss.
So for 30 minutes Mr Salmond was thrown down every circle of political hell until eventually he hit rock bottom - being lectured by Ken Macintosh.
There is actually a case for returning to Imperial -it would ensure that people are numerate. I for one would be stuffed if everything was pounds, shillings, pence, feet, yards -but if brought up on it from birth, it must be extremely beneficial. You can learn the imperial system and pick up the metric system in two seconds, but you can't do the other way around.
Let's say in the election Labour poll around 31%-32% and the Tories get 36%, but due to the dodgy boundaries and lack of EV4EL manage to get a small working majority. Would you happily back Labour as having a mandate to govern?
I have a feeling such a result long term would do them no good whatsoever.
Not likely - the difference between British and Scottish outcomes has been hovering around 2%, and the SNP surge may wipe it out altogether. But yes, we have to go with whatever the current system produces - I don't like it either (I'm a PR man) but it's impossible to govern if most MPs oppose you.
When I look at the unweighted numbers of many polls there appears to be an incredible over-subscription of public sector workers and 2010 Labour voters in some.
YouGov had a poll the other day, where there was massive regional oversubscription in London and Scotland.
The more I look at the polls, especially online ones, the more wary I am of their accuracy and the scope for them being targeted by activists whilst failing to connect with ordinary people.
There's an important statistical point here, separate from political preference. The effect of under- or over-sampling of one group is that the undersampled group get their views uprated and the oversampled group get theirs downrated. Posts that find that e.g. there are too many 2010 Labour voters in a sample don't seem to realise that.
The only statistically valid effect of an unrepresentative sample is if the small number of the undersampled group are in some way untypical of their group. Say, for instance, that a poll has only half as many 2010 Tories as there really were. The pollster will then double the weight of the ones that he found. If that group is in some way atypical - tending to shift more or less than 2010 Tories as a whole - then it will affect the poll figure, otherwise not.
The fuzzy point is false recall. If a party becomes really unpopular (as currently the LibDems), people who voted for them may blot out the recollection. That means that the sample will seem to find fewer people who voted LibDem in 2010, and will uprate the remaining super-loyalists. That's dangerous since actually they perhaps found the correct number but some aren't admitting it. Consequence: very unpopular parties may actually be polling higher than reality, and very popular parties lower.
It's a very odd size - the sort that looks like A4 but isn't.
Foolscap is lined, legal-size paper (a paper size found only in North America). It is called foolscap because, in the 18th century, folio-sized paper had the watermark of a fool's cap on it.
In the UK, foolscap paper is 13" X 8" (c 330mm X 203mm), but paper of the size is now very rarely used, being superseded by A4 (297 x 210). Older people may call A4 "foolscap". Nevertheless, ring binders, lever arch files, suspended files, and other filing related things still use the size.
Comments
Salmond and SNP are to legislate to prevent councils collecting any more poll tax.
MSM spinning this heavily against the SNP (no change there), but Labour's confused opposition to the move will do them no favours in their (former?) heartlands, particularly
as the amount collected last year was less than £400k. Just the usual Labour in Scotland knee-jerk anti-SNP response.
This is another clever move by the SNP in a World where Cameron's conference speech virtually quotes Johan Lamont (of the British Labour Party in Scotland) on a "something for nothing" society.
However, if UKIP duck debates there it may give ammunition to other parties to say they can't run away from debates then demand to be included later [there's a qualitative difference between a local news/by-election debate and a national/general election one, of course].
Plus we want polls showing Lab ahead lest Lab decide to ditch their toxic leader
Miliband could yet win.
I wonder if the voting register will get smaller again after the bills drop through the door in March.
http://www1.skysports.com/f1/report/24184/9500522/mclaren-honda-wait-as-unhappy-fernando-alonso-contemplates-quitting-ferrari
https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=977047362312122
We shall see.
What we need is a brutal and steady monstering of Labour to start NOW. Perceptions take time to morph into voting intentions.
http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/OmOnline_Vote_03-10-2014_BPC.pdf
Public sector [Private sector]
Conservative = 21% [21%]
Labour = 33% [28%]
My point being that Labour have a lead in both groups.
The only demographic or geographic groups that the Conservatives lead in that poll are: those aged 65+, AB voters and the Midlands. Historically, older AB voters have been more likely to turnout and the Midlands has been seen as the election battleground - so it's not all bad news for the Tories - but the real move in the Tories favour is the continued ageing of society.
The Tories are now the party for the retired. The workers are voting for Labour.
Obviously, I compare a current party leader to a famous military commander.
.....and as so often only the BBC can spot the difference between froth and a story which is why it's the most respected news organization in the World.
Take note PfP
Eck Salmond at Clackmannan ?
"...there are first the five seats that Labour currently holds at risk of turning purple,
but more serious is the indirect threat. There are sixteen Labour seats that could turn blue because of UKIP
and there are four Labour target seats in which UKIP voters could deny Labour the gains it needs. "
http://www.fabians.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/RevoltOnTheLeft-Final2.pdf
• Labour seats under direct UKIP threat: Great Grimsby, Dudley North, Plymouth Moor View, Rother Valley, Rotherham
• Con seats under direct UKIP threat: Clacton, South Thanet, Thurrock, Great Yarmouth, Waveney
Six critical and very serious indirect threat seats that the Conservatives might lose to Labour as a result of the UKIP threat: Warwickshire North, Cardiff North, Broxtowe, Stroud, Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire, and Pudsey
Sixteen critical and very serious indirect threat seats which Labour might lose to Conservatives as a result of UKIP-Labour considerers: Southampton Itchen, Great Grimsby, Walsall North, Plymouth Moor View, Telford, Dudley North, Halifax, Wolverhampton NE, Birmingham Edgbaston, Blackpool South, Walsall South, Leicester West, Nottingham South, Southampton Test, Birming- ham Northfield, and Wakefield
Four critical and very serious indirect threat Labour target seats which it could fail to win as a result of UKIP-Labour considerers: Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, Carlisle, Lincoln and Ipswich."
IPSOS (telephone polling)
Private Sector: Tory 42: Lab 29
FT Workers: Tory 37: Lab 33 (Labour lead among PT workers - more likely to be benefit recipients)
Homeowners: Tory 38, Lab 28
Labour have strong leads in the public sector, among the claimant state and among renters - especially in social housing.
When I look at the unweighted numbers of many polls there appears to be an incredible over-subscription of public sector workers and 2010 Labour voters in some.
YouGov had a poll the other day, where there was massive regional oversubscription in London and Scotland.
The more I look at the polls, especially online ones, the more wary I am of their accuracy and the scope for them being targeted by activists whilst failing to connect with ordinary people.
This angered those switchers who thought we may as well head back to Lab.
But we are more or less at the same place as we were then (which doesn't necessarily reflect well on the Cons, or at least the public discourse on how f****d we were/are).
Both Lab and Cons are promising austerity with Lab being a bit more anti-business (in @NickPalmer and Lab's view "business" has nothing to do with "taxpayers") but both agreeing, necessarily, on the direction of travel.
Which leaves once more same old Lab and the possibility of the LDs as the moderating force. Because a vote for LDs gives them a shot at continuing power (and I wouldn't underestimate the narrative they will use as to how they have civilised the nasty party) while a vote for Lab has not been earned by Lab.
That is why I am luvvin' these by-elections. How does support for a party in a poll translate into a concrete vote?
V. interesting.
'No. That takes months and there's no chance. Plus who would they choose instead? The Labour front bench is not exactly overflowing with 'if only' candidates.'
As Labour's GE focus is on the NHS surely Andy Stafford would be a shoo-in.
A bit shit, but still a response.
Let's say in the election Labour poll around 31%-32% and the Tories get 36%, but due to the dodgy boundaries and lack of EV4EL manage to get a small working majority. Would you happily back Labour as having a mandate to govern?
I have a feeling such a result long term would do them no good whatsoever.
A perfect line.
While that's two things I've been wrong on here so far today, at least I hope I was right about the first statement I made...
Extraordinary.
Just checked, and it actually includes this (relevant to a recent discussion):
The reversion to proper imperial measurements, for weights, distance, fluid measures and money.
http://www.populus.co.uk/Poll/Voting-Intention-127/
Decent poll for Labour in Tory conference week. Usually you'd expect a Tory bounce.
Reverse bounce effect because of Tory deficit amnesia/never-never giveaways?
Interesting anyway. More polls needed.
Bit of trivia here > it's named after an ancient watermark depicting a jester's cap and bells/conical dunce's hat.
Like the one showing SNP potentially gaining 20 seats? I'd have thought you'd want fewer of those.
Perhaps yesterdays YG was taken outside the tory conference
Sir Menzies Campbell's father in law was commander of the 1st Airborne Division at Market Garden.
What happened to YouGov yesterday?
Just saying.
Predictions 52-48 to Yes were out 14.6% on absolute difference or 7.3% on Yes response level
LAB lead amongst workers
Tory lead with pensioners (benefits)
Which category are you in?
Burham Wood come to Dunsinane???....not in this lifetime mate...
H982 FKL
I mean it's a lot worse than G4 VIN if you are called Gavin but personalised plates that try to approximate names, etc are all pretty naff.
Having just glanced at the 'story' it sounds like some Argentine arseheads somehow managed to take offence at a numberplate for no apparent reason.
My vote for best headline today goes to the DT with Lancet editor apologises for Gaza article by scientists who promoted Ku Klux Klan
I think it was devised using fridge magnets.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/alex-salmond-opponents-put-the-boot-in-at-fmqs.1412272399
Strange I think the Lab lead is still 3-4 as it has been since March
Tom Gordon hates Salmond
Is a lot like YES
independence (tory win) clearly nailed on
The only statistically valid effect of an unrepresentative sample is if the small number of the undersampled group are in some way untypical of their group. Say, for instance, that a poll has only half as many 2010 Tories as there really were. The pollster will then double the weight of the ones that he found. If that group is in some way atypical - tending to shift more or less than 2010 Tories as a whole - then it will affect the poll figure, otherwise not.
The fuzzy point is false recall. If a party becomes really unpopular (as currently the LibDems), people who voted for them may blot out the recollection. That means that the sample will seem to find fewer people who voted LibDem in 2010, and will uprate the remaining super-loyalists. That's dangerous since actually they perhaps found the correct number but some aren't admitting it. Consequence: very unpopular parties may actually be polling higher than reality, and very popular parties lower.
Less of the "older people" please!
I still refer to A4 as foolscap sometimes...