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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories are right to take heart from today’s YouGov lead

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  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Obviously YouGov are the gold standard.

    Did ICM lie fallow in September ?
  • TGOHF said:

    Obviously YouGov are the gold standard.

    Did ICM lie fallow in September ?
    Nope. It showed the Lab lead falling.
  • JPJ2JPJ2 Posts: 380
    MarqueMark

    Salmond and SNP are to legislate to prevent councils collecting any more poll tax.

    MSM spinning this heavily against the SNP (no change there), but Labour's confused opposition to the move will do them no favours in their (former?) heartlands, particularly
    as the amount collected last year was less than £400k. Just the usual Labour in Scotland knee-jerk anti-SNP response.

    This is another clever move by the SNP in a World where Cameron's conference speech virtually quotes Johan Lamont (of the British Labour Party in Scotland) on a "something for nothing" society.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801

    FalseFlag said:

    FalseFlag said:

    A fair number of Labour's 29% were public sector workers or benefit recipients scared into voting. They either work in the private sector or have had their fears assuaged.

    Still given UKIP's continued strength and likely addition of MPs my expectation of a hung parliament remains.

    Labour support is higher than Tory support in the private sector.
    Not in any of the polling data I have read.
    http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/OmOnline_Vote_26-09-2014_BPC.pdf
    Shows private sector workers are far more likely to vote Conservative, which was my point.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:


    Sorry yes I worded my critique poorly - you mentioned in a Labour/SNP way - but if you look at the map of % Yes/No you will see huge areas of the country where No support is very strong but the SNP have seats and Labour probably isn't the challenger. Voters may be tempted to look at the bar graphs in places like Perth and select the challenger most likely to boot the SNP in the Salmonds.

    Just how toxic is the SNP after the referendum - that is the question.

    If the polls are too be believed, that's not even a question. I'm sure you're getting a different vibe from FollowFollow though.

    What polls ?
    The polls that show the SNP sustaining a substantial lead in Holyrood after being 7 years in power, and vying with Labour for biggest Westminster vote share. If you've got any other evidence for 'SNP backlash' (apart from you devoutly wishing it), I'd be fascinated to see it.
    I'd advise everyone to take Scottish polls with a pinch of salt after they missed the crushing 11% for No just 2 weeks ago.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 38 (+2), Con 33 (-1), LD 8 (+1), UKIP 13 (-1), Oth 8 (-1). Tables here: http://t.co/lYS81q2IjA

    LoL. Clearly rogue!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Eagles, probably a smart move (he's miles ahead in the polls and doesn't want to replicate the Darling mistake with the second Scottish debate) for the constituency.

    However, if UKIP duck debates there it may give ammunition to other parties to say they can't run away from debates then demand to be included later [there's a qualitative difference between a local news/by-election debate and a national/general election one, of course].
  • JohnO said:

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 38 (+2), Con 33 (-1), LD 8 (+1), UKIP 13 (-1), Oth 8 (-1). Tables here: http://t.co/lYS81q2IjA

    LoL. Clearly rogue!
    Yeah it's an outlier.

    Plus we want polls showing Lab ahead lest Lab decide to ditch their toxic leader
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 38 (+2), Con 33 (-1), LD 8 (+1), UKIP 13 (-1), Oth 8 (-1). Tables here: http://t.co/lYS81q2IjA

    26% of women were don't knows..... There's the battleground for next May.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Eagles, too late now.

    Miliband could yet win.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    JPJ2 said:

    MarqueMark

    Salmond and SNP are to legislate to prevent councils collecting any more poll tax.

    MSM spinning this heavily against the SNP (no change there), but Labour's confused opposition to the move will do them no favours in their (former?) heartlands, particularly
    as the amount collected last year was less than £400k. Just the usual Labour in Scotland knee-jerk anti-SNP response.

    This is another clever move by the SNP in a World where Cameron's conference speech virtually quotes Johan Lamont (of the British Labour Party in Scotland) on a "something for nothing" society.

    What the SNP are not mentioning is councils going after revenue that isn't "poll tax" debts - from 20 years ago.

    I wonder if the voting register will get smaller again after the bills drop through the door in March.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited October 2014
    Roger said:

    Lest we get on to Salmond and his best mate Trump.....

    Or 'cold feet at the last minute' Murdoch.......

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    An 8 point swing! – So, quite a good speech then ?

    Point of pedantry it is a 4% swing.
    Cheers - Does the betting on a YG cross over still count – or had it expired?
  • TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:


    Sorry yes I worded my critique poorly - you mentioned in a Labour/SNP way - but if you look at the map of % Yes/No you will see huge areas of the country where No support is very strong but the SNP have seats and Labour probably isn't the challenger. Voters may be tempted to look at the bar graphs in places like Perth and select the challenger most likely to boot the SNP in the Salmonds.

    Just how toxic is the SNP after the referendum - that is the question.

    If the polls are too be believed, that's not even a question. I'm sure you're getting a different vibe from FollowFollow though.

    What polls ?
    The polls that show the SNP sustaining a substantial lead in Holyrood after being 7 years in power, and vying with Labour for biggest Westminster vote share. If you've got any other evidence for 'SNP backlash' (apart from you devoutly wishing it), I'd be fascinated to see it.
    I'd advise everyone to take Scottish polls with a pinch of salt after they missed the crushing 11% for No just 2 weeks ago.
    In that case the 60-40 brigade should also preserve a dignified silence.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited October 2014

    Cluck cluck (or should that be oink woof for a traitorous pig dog)

    @CCHQPress: Looks like @DouglasCarswell last night bottled debating our candidate @GilesWatling when he didn't show for an ITV Anglia Clacton debate

    The Daily Politics did a little video profile of all the Clacton by-election candidates.

    https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=977047362312122
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Cluck cluck (or should that be oink woof for a traitorous pig dog)

    @CCHQPress: Looks like @DouglasCarswell last night bottled debating our candidate @GilesWatling when he didn't show for an ITV Anglia Clacton debate

    The Daily Politics did a little video profile of all the Clacton by-election candidates.

    https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=977047362312122
    I'm a bit surprised. Personally liked (and needing more), pretty good on his feet, I would have Carswell would go for this sort of thing.

    We shall see.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:


    Sorry yes I worded my critique poorly - you mentioned in a Labour/SNP way - but if you look at the map of % Yes/No you will see huge areas of the country where No support is very strong but the SNP have seats and Labour probably isn't the challenger. Voters may be tempted to look at the bar graphs in places like Perth and select the challenger most likely to boot the SNP in the Salmonds.

    Just how toxic is the SNP after the referendum - that is the question.

    If the polls are too be believed, that's not even a question. I'm sure you're getting a different vibe from FollowFollow though.

    What polls ?
    The polls that show the SNP sustaining a substantial lead in Holyrood after being 7 years in power, and vying with Labour for biggest Westminster vote share. If you've got any other evidence for 'SNP backlash' (apart from you devoutly wishing it), I'd be fascinated to see it.
    I'd advise everyone to take Scottish polls with a pinch of salt after they missed the crushing 11% for No just 2 weeks ago.
    In that case the 60-40 brigade should also preserve a dignified silence.
    better 4.7% out than 12% out..
  • An 8 point swing! – So, quite a good speech then ?

    Point of pedantry it is a 4% swing.
    Cheers - Does the betting on a YG cross over still count – or had it expired?
    It does if you had crossover in h2/q4 of 2014
  • JohnO said:

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 38 (+2), Con 33 (-1), LD 8 (+1), UKIP 13 (-1), Oth 8 (-1). Tables here: http://t.co/lYS81q2IjA

    LoL. Clearly rogue!
    Plus we want polls showing Lab ahead lest Lab decide to ditch their toxic leader
    No. That takes months and there's no chance. Plus who would they choose instead? The Labour front bench is not exactly overflowing with 'if only' candidates.

    What we need is a brutal and steady monstering of Labour to start NOW. Perceptions take time to morph into voting intentions.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Grandiose said:

    Cluck cluck (or should that be oink woof for a traitorous pig dog)

    @CCHQPress: Looks like @DouglasCarswell last night bottled debating our candidate @GilesWatling when he didn't show for an ITV Anglia Clacton debate

    The Daily Politics did a little video profile of all the Clacton by-election candidates.

    https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=977047362312122
    I'm a bit surprised. Personally liked (and needing more), pretty good on his feet, I would have Carswell would go for this sort of thing.

    We shall see.
    The source is a CCHQ tweet.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    FalseFlag said:

    FalseFlag said:

    FalseFlag said:

    A fair number of Labour's 29% were public sector workers or benefit recipients scared into voting. They either work in the private sector or have had their fears assuaged.

    Still given UKIP's continued strength and likely addition of MPs my expectation of a hung parliament remains.

    Labour support is higher than Tory support in the private sector.
    Not in any of the polling data I have read.
    http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/OmOnline_Vote_26-09-2014_BPC.pdf
    Shows private sector workers are far more likely to vote Conservative, which was my point.
    Today's poll is now out:
    http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/OmOnline_Vote_03-10-2014_BPC.pdf

    Public sector [Private sector]
    Conservative = 21% [21%]
    Labour = 33% [28%]

    My point being that Labour have a lead in both groups.

    The only demographic or geographic groups that the Conservatives lead in that poll are: those aged 65+, AB voters and the Midlands. Historically, older AB voters have been more likely to turnout and the Midlands has been seen as the election battleground - so it's not all bad news for the Tories - but the real move in the Tories favour is the continued ageing of society.

    The Tories are now the party for the retired. The workers are voting for Labour.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited October 2014
    Yay - My afternoon thread now features one of the most famous and memorable military defeats in human history.

    Obviously, I compare a current party leader to a famous military commander.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,121
    Patrick said:

    JohnO said:

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 38 (+2), Con 33 (-1), LD 8 (+1), UKIP 13 (-1), Oth 8 (-1). Tables here: http://t.co/lYS81q2IjA

    LoL. Clearly rogue!
    Plus we want polls showing Lab ahead lest Lab decide to ditch their toxic leader
    No. That takes months and there's no chance. Plus who would they choose instead? The Labour front bench is not exactly overflowing with 'if only' candidates.

    What we need is a brutal and steady monstering of Labour to start NOW. Perceptions take time to morph into voting intentions.
    Yes, it would take months. But Alan Johnson would save their bacon (butty).
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Grandiose said:

    Cluck cluck (or should that be oink woof for a traitorous pig dog)

    @CCHQPress: Looks like @DouglasCarswell last night bottled debating our candidate @GilesWatling when he didn't show for an ITV Anglia Clacton debate

    The Daily Politics did a little video profile of all the Clacton by-election candidates.

    https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=977047362312122
    I'm a bit surprised. Personally liked (and needing more), pretty good on his feet, I would have Carswell would go for this sort of thing.

    We shall see.
    The source is a CCHQ tweet.
    That's sort of what I meant; I await the other side of the story (dubitante as they say).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Eagles, I'm beginning to think I'm dead, in the Greek afterlife, and trying to educate you about classical history is my Sisyphian labour.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,972
    So did 'the speech' turn things around or are YouGov pants?

    .....and as so often only the BBC can spot the difference between froth and a story which is why it's the most respected news organization in the World.

    Take note PfP
  • Patrick said:

    JohnO said:

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 38 (+2), Con 33 (-1), LD 8 (+1), UKIP 13 (-1), Oth 8 (-1). Tables here: http://t.co/lYS81q2IjA

    LoL. Clearly rogue!
    Plus we want polls showing Lab ahead lest Lab decide to ditch their toxic leader
    No. That takes months and there's no chance. Plus who would they choose instead? The Labour front bench is not exactly overflowing with 'if only' candidates.

    What we need is a brutal and steady monstering of Labour to start NOW. Perceptions take time to morph into voting intentions.
    Yes, it would take months. But Alan Johnson would save their bacon (butty).
    !!! The postie as PM? Good luck with that. Dave would die laughing if Labour went through the pain of replacing Redward with AJ. You do remember his time as Shadow Chancellor? If Redward is an empty suit AJ is a suit filled with aerogel.
  • Mr. Eagles, I'm beginning to think I'm dead, in the Greek afterlife, and trying to educate you about classical history is my Sisyphian labour.

    Don't worry, I'm not comparing anyone to Hannibal, the military defeat I'm referencing is frightfully modern.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Mr. Eagles, I'm beginning to think I'm dead, in the Greek afterlife, and trying to educate you about classical history is my Sisyphian labour.

    Don't worry, I'm not comparing anyone to Hannibal, the military defeat I'm referencing is frightfully modern.
    Tom Watson at Gleneagles ?

    Eck Salmond at Clackmannan ?
  • TGOHF said:

    Obviously YouGov are the gold standard.

    Did ICM lie fallow in September ?
    Nope. It showed the Lab lead falling.
    Last ICM was a 2 point labour lead
  • Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    JohnO said:

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 38 (+2), Con 33 (-1), LD 8 (+1), UKIP 13 (-1), Oth 8 (-1). Tables here: http://t.co/lYS81q2IjA

    LoL. Clearly rogue!
    Plus we want polls showing Lab ahead lest Lab decide to ditch their toxic leader
    No. That takes months and there's no chance. Plus who would they choose instead? The Labour front bench is not exactly overflowing with 'if only' candidates.

    What we need is a brutal and steady monstering of Labour to start NOW. Perceptions take time to morph into voting intentions.
    Yes, it would take months. But Alan Johnson would save their bacon (butty).
    !!! The postie as PM? Good luck with that. Dave would die laughing if Labour went through the pain of replacing Redward with AJ. You do remember his time as Shadow Chancellor? If Redward is an empty suit AJ is a suit filled with aerogel.
    To be fair to Alan Johnson, and I've always liked him, his tenure as Shadow Chancellor was overshadowed when he found out his wife had been bumping uglies with his bodyguard
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Lib Dem candidate at Clacton says 'it's not about personality.' For his sake, I hope he's right...
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Fabians: UKIP vs Labour
    "...there are first the five seats that Labour currently holds at risk of turning purple,

    but more serious is the indirect threat. There are sixteen Labour seats that could turn blue because of UKIP

    and there are four Labour target seats in which UKIP voters could deny Labour the gains it needs. "

    http://www.fabians.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/RevoltOnTheLeft-Final2.pdf
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Roger said:

    So did 'the speech' turn things around or are YouGov pants?

    The only shift that may be real is the widening of the 'best PM' gap between Cameron and Miliband - the OA voting number is 'noise'......

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    JohnO said:

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 38 (+2), Con 33 (-1), LD 8 (+1), UKIP 13 (-1), Oth 8 (-1). Tables here: http://t.co/lYS81q2IjA

    LoL. Clearly rogue!
    Indeed. I can't believe the Lib Dems are up to 8%. They haven't even had their conference yet.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited October 2014

    Fabians: UKIP vs Labour
    "...there are first the five seats that Labour currently holds at risk of turning purple,

    but more serious is the indirect threat. There are sixteen Labour seats that could turn blue because of UKIP

    and there are four Labour target seats in which UKIP voters could deny Labour the gains it needs. "

    http://www.fabians.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/RevoltOnTheLeft-Final2.pdf

    "There are five critical and high-risk seats under direct threat by UKIP, for both Labour and the Conservatives each:

    • Labour seats under direct UKIP threat: Great Grimsby, Dudley North, Plymouth Moor View, Rother Valley, Rotherham

    • Con seats under direct UKIP threat: Clacton, South Thanet, Thurrock, Great Yarmouth, Waveney

    Six critical and very serious indirect threat seats that the Conservatives might lose to Labour as a result of the UKIP threat: Warwickshire North, Cardiff North, Broxtowe, Stroud, Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire, and Pudsey

    Sixteen critical and very serious indirect threat seats which Labour might lose to Conservatives as a result of UKIP-Labour considerers: Southampton Itchen, Great Grimsby, Walsall North, Plymouth Moor View, Telford, Dudley North, Halifax, Wolverhampton NE, Birmingham Edgbaston, Blackpool South, Walsall South, Leicester West, Nottingham South, Southampton Test, Birming- ham Northfield, and Wakefield

    Four critical and very serious indirect threat Labour target seats which it could fail to win as a result of UKIP-Labour considerers: Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, Carlisle, Lincoln and Ipswich."
  • TGOHF said:

    Mr. Eagles, I'm beginning to think I'm dead, in the Greek afterlife, and trying to educate you about classical history is my Sisyphian labour.

    Don't worry, I'm not comparing anyone to Hannibal, the military defeat I'm referencing is frightfully modern.
    Tom Watson at Gleneagles ?

    Eck Salmond at Clackmannan ?
    No, I did upset the Yestapo/Waffen Yes Yes when I compared Alex Salmond to Mitt Romney last week.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341



    The only demographic or geographic groups that the Conservatives lead in that poll are: those aged 65+, AB voters and the Midlands. Historically, older AB voters have been more likely to turnout and the Midlands has been seen as the election battleground - so it's not all bad news for the Tories - but the real move in the Tories favour is the continued ageing of society.

    The Tories are now the party for the retired. The workers are voting for Labour.

    You seem to be placing all your faith in one pollster.

    IPSOS (telephone polling)

    Private Sector: Tory 42: Lab 29
    FT Workers: Tory 37: Lab 33 (Labour lead among PT workers - more likely to be benefit recipients)
    Homeowners: Tory 38, Lab 28

    Labour have strong leads in the public sector, among the claimant state and among renters - especially in social housing.

    When I look at the unweighted numbers of many polls there appears to be an incredible over-subscription of public sector workers and 2010 Labour voters in some.

    YouGov had a poll the other day, where there was massive regional oversubscription in London and Scotland.

    The more I look at the polls, especially online ones, the more wary I am of their accuracy and the scope for them being targeted by activists whilst failing to connect with ordinary people.
  • Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    JohnO said:

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 38 (+2), Con 33 (-1), LD 8 (+1), UKIP 13 (-1), Oth 8 (-1). Tables here: http://t.co/lYS81q2IjA

    LoL. Clearly rogue!
    Plus we want polls showing Lab ahead lest Lab decide to ditch their toxic leader
    No. That takes months and there's no chance. Plus who would they choose instead? The Labour front bench is not exactly overflowing with 'if only' candidates.

    What we need is a brutal and steady monstering of Labour to start NOW. Perceptions take time to morph into voting intentions.
    Yes, it would take months. But Alan Johnson would save their bacon (butty).
    !!! The postie as PM? Good luck with that. Dave would die laughing if Labour went through the pain of replacing Redward with AJ. You do remember his time as Shadow Chancellor? If Redward is an empty suit AJ is a suit filled with aerogel.
    To be fair to Alan Johnson, and I've always liked him, his tenure as Shadow Chancellor was overshadowed when he found out his wife had been bumping uglies with his bodyguard
    Yes - that can't have been easy. And he is likable. As is Redward. But no PM. Either of them.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Mr. Eagles, I'm beginning to think I'm dead, in the Greek afterlife, and trying to educate you about classical history is my Sisyphian labour.

    Don't worry, I'm not comparing anyone to Hannibal, the military defeat I'm referencing is frightfully modern.
    Tom Watson at Gleneagles ?

    Eck Salmond at Clackmannan ?
    No, I did upset the Yestapo/Waffen Yes Yes when I compared Alex Salmond to Mitt Romney last week.
    Mr Romney got much much closer than Eck - I hope he wasn't insulted.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Roger said:

    Topping

    "It is a question of "ownership" of the current coalition's achievements."

    Do you think if Lib Dems considered the coalition to have produced 'achievements' they would still be on 7%?

    I suspect they feel rather like the Tate did about taking 'ownership' of Merda d'artista.

    It is a big ask. But the 2010 Lab=>LD switchers were, after all, sick to the back teeth with Lab and were looking to the LDs to make good on all their bonkers lefty promises. Which of course they were never going to be able to.

    This angered those switchers who thought we may as well head back to Lab.

    But we are more or less at the same place as we were then (which doesn't necessarily reflect well on the Cons, or at least the public discourse on how f****d we were/are).

    Both Lab and Cons are promising austerity with Lab being a bit more anti-business (in @NickPalmer‌ and Lab's view "business" has nothing to do with "taxpayers") but both agreeing, necessarily, on the direction of travel.

    Which leaves once more same old Lab and the possibility of the LDs as the moderating force. Because a vote for LDs gives them a shot at continuing power (and I wouldn't underestimate the narrative they will use as to how they have civilised the nasty party) while a vote for Lab has not been earned by Lab.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited October 2014
    Re: Fabian study- Edgbaston and Nottingham South? I'd like to see their workings for them seats.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited October 2014
    Well that Populus brought us all down to earth a bit!

    That is why I am luvvin' these by-elections. How does support for a party in a poll translate into a concrete vote?

    V. interesting.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693
    Fenman said:

    Lib Dem candidate at Clacton says 'it's not about personality.' For his sake, I hope he's right...

    "Well, we in the Adder Party have fought this campaign on issues, not personality."
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Fabians: UKIP vs Labour
    "...there are first the five seats that Labour currently holds at risk of turning purple,

    but more serious is the indirect threat. There are sixteen Labour seats that could turn blue because of UKIP

    and there are four Labour target seats in which UKIP voters could deny Labour the gains it needs. "

    http://www.fabians.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/RevoltOnTheLeft-Final2.pdf

    "There are five critical and high-risk seats under direct threat by UKIP, for both Labour and the Conservatives each:

    • Labour seats under direct UKIP threat: Great Grimsby, Dudley North, Plymouth Moor View, Rother Valley, Rotherham

    • Con seats under direct UKIP threat: Clacton, South Thanet, Thurrock, Great Yarmouth, Waveney

    Six critical and very serious indirect threat seats that the Conservatives might lose to Labour as a result of the UKIP threat: Warwickshire North, Cardiff North, Broxtowe, Stroud, Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire, and Pudsey

    Sixteen critical and very serious indirect threat seats which Labour might lose to Conservatives as a result of UKIP-Labour considerers: Southampton Itchen, Great Grimsby, Walsall North, Plymouth Moor View, Telford, Dudley North, Halifax, Wolverhampton NE, Birmingham Edgbaston, Blackpool South, Walsall South, Leicester West, Nottingham South, Southampton Test, Birming- ham Northfield, and Wakefield

    Four critical and very serious indirect threat Labour target seats which it could fail to win as a result of UKIP-Labour considerers: Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, Carlisle, Lincoln and Ipswich."
    No way will Leicester West be other than Labour.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Fabians: UKIP vs Labour
    "...there are first the five seats that Labour currently holds at risk of turning purple,

    but more serious is the indirect threat. There are sixteen Labour seats that could turn blue because of UKIP

    and there are four Labour target seats in which UKIP voters could deny Labour the gains it needs. "

    http://www.fabians.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/RevoltOnTheLeft-Final2.pdf

    "There are five critical and high-risk seats under direct threat by UKIP, for both Labour and the Conservatives each:

    • Labour seats under direct UKIP threat: Great Grimsby, Dudley North, Plymouth Moor View, Rother Valley, Rotherham

    • Con seats under direct UKIP threat: Clacton, South Thanet, Thurrock, Great Yarmouth, Waveney

    Six critical and very serious indirect threat seats that the Conservatives might lose to Labour as a result of the UKIP threat: Warwickshire North, Cardiff North, Broxtowe, Stroud, Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire, and Pudsey

    Sixteen critical and very serious indirect threat seats which Labour might lose to Conservatives as a result of UKIP-Labour considerers: Southampton Itchen, Great Grimsby, Walsall North, Plymouth Moor View, Telford, Dudley North, Halifax, Wolverhampton NE, Birmingham Edgbaston, Blackpool South, Walsall South, Leicester West, Nottingham South, Southampton Test, Birming- ham Northfield, and Wakefield

    Four critical and very serious indirect threat Labour target seats which it could fail to win as a result of UKIP-Labour considerers: Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, Carlisle, Lincoln and Ipswich."
    No way will Leicester West be other than Labour.
    Waveney isn't going to go UKIP, Great Yarmouth is unlikely. I suggest Lincolnshire is more likely.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    JohnO said:

    @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 38 (+2), Con 33 (-1), LD 8 (+1), UKIP 13 (-1), Oth 8 (-1). Tables here: http://t.co/lYS81q2IjA

    LoL. Clearly rogue!
    Plus we want polls showing Lab ahead lest Lab decide to ditch their toxic leader
    No. That takes months and there's no chance. Plus who would they choose instead? The Labour front bench is not exactly overflowing with 'if only' candidates.

    What we need is a brutal and steady monstering of Labour to start NOW. Perceptions take time to morph into voting intentions.
    Yes, it would take months. But Alan Johnson would save their bacon (butty).
    !!! The postie as PM? Good luck with that. Dave would die laughing if Labour went through the pain of replacing Redward with AJ. You do remember his time as Shadow Chancellor? If Redward is an empty suit AJ is a suit filled with aerogel.
    AJ was the Minister that made Stafford a foundation Trust, replaced by Burnham who started the investigations.
  • TGOHF said:

    Mr. Eagles, I'm beginning to think I'm dead, in the Greek afterlife, and trying to educate you about classical history is my Sisyphian labour.

    Don't worry, I'm not comparing anyone to Hannibal, the military defeat I'm referencing is frightfully modern.
    Tom Watson at Gleneagles ?

    Eck Salmond at Clackmannan ?
    No, I did upset the Yestapo/Waffen Yes Yes when I compared Alex Salmond to Mitt Romney last week.
    High praise indeed from a minor functionary of Stormfront Lite.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited October 2014

    TGOHF said:

    Mr. Eagles, I'm beginning to think I'm dead, in the Greek afterlife, and trying to educate you about classical history is my Sisyphian labour.

    Don't worry, I'm not comparing anyone to Hannibal, the military defeat I'm referencing is frightfully modern.
    Tom Watson at Gleneagles ?

    Eck Salmond at Clackmannan ?
    No, I did upset the Yestapo/Waffen Yes Yes when I compared Alex Salmond to Mitt Romney last week.
    High praise indeed from a minor functionary of Stormfront Lite.
    I'd love to respond properly, but I'm busy sticking burning crosses in the front yards of some black families and some Muslim famiies
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    is @OblitusSumMe‌ back from the Clyde yet?
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Patrick

    'No. That takes months and there's no chance. Plus who would they choose instead? The Labour front bench is not exactly overflowing with 'if only' candidates.'

    As Labour's GE focus is on the NHS surely Andy Stafford would be a shoo-in.
  • TGOHF said:

    Mr. Eagles, I'm beginning to think I'm dead, in the Greek afterlife, and trying to educate you about classical history is my Sisyphian labour.

    Don't worry, I'm not comparing anyone to Hannibal, the military defeat I'm referencing is frightfully modern.
    Tom Watson at Gleneagles ?

    Eck Salmond at Clackmannan ?
    No, I did upset the Yestapo/Waffen Yes Yes when I compared Alex Salmond to Mitt Romney last week.
    High praise indeed from a minor functionary of Stormfront Lite.
    I'd love to respond, but I'm busy sticking burning crosses in the front yards of some black families and some Muslim famiies
    Err, you have responded.

    A bit shit, but still a response.
  • TGOHF said:

    Mr. Eagles, I'm beginning to think I'm dead, in the Greek afterlife, and trying to educate you about classical history is my Sisyphian labour.

    Don't worry, I'm not comparing anyone to Hannibal, the military defeat I'm referencing is frightfully modern.
    Tom Watson at Gleneagles ?

    Eck Salmond at Clackmannan ?
    No, I did upset the Yestapo/Waffen Yes Yes when I compared Alex Salmond to Mitt Romney last week.
    High praise indeed from a minor functionary of Stormfront Lite.
    I'd love to respond, but I'm busy sticking burning crosses in the front yards of some black families and some Muslim famiies
    Err, you have responded.

    A bit shit, but still a response.
    I edited my comment, to clarify what I meant.
  • Question for Labour supporters.

    Let's say in the election Labour poll around 31%-32% and the Tories get 36%, but due to the dodgy boundaries and lack of EV4EL manage to get a small working majority. Would you happily back Labour as having a mandate to govern?

    I have a feeling such a result long term would do them no good whatsoever.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Looking at recent ICMs Labour appear to have a lead of about 15% among the under 65s. Given that about 80% of people work in the private sector, I'd be amazed if the Tories had much of a lead amongst them.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Eagles, Tigranocerta?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    That reminds me of the excellent quip in Fargo when Billy Bob Thornton's character Malvo said "I haven't had pie like this since the Garden of Eden".

    A perfect line.

    Fenman said:

    Lib Dem candidate at Clacton says 'it's not about personality.' For his sake, I hope he's right...

    "Well, we in the Adder Party have fought this campaign on issues, not personality."
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    chestnut said:



    The only demographic or geographic groups that the Conservatives lead in that poll are: those aged 65+, AB voters and the Midlands. Historically, older AB voters have been more likely to turnout and the Midlands has been seen as the election battleground - so it's not all bad news for the Tories - but the real move in the Tories favour is the continued ageing of society.

    The Tories are now the party for the retired. The workers are voting for Labour.

    You seem to be placing all your faith in one pollster.

    IPSOS (telephone polling)

    Private Sector: Tory 42: Lab 29
    FT Workers: Tory 37: Lab 33 (Labour lead among PT workers - more likely to be benefit recipients)
    Homeowners: Tory 38, Lab 28

    Labour have strong leads in the public sector, among the claimant state and among renters - especially in social housing.

    When I look at the unweighted numbers of many polls there appears to be an incredible over-subscription of public sector workers and 2010 Labour voters in some.

    YouGov had a poll the other day, where there was massive regional oversubscription in London and Scotland.

    The more I look at the polls, especially online ones, the more wary I am of their accuracy and the scope for them being targeted by activists whilst failing to connect with ordinary people.
    I forgot that Mori also do a breakdown for private/public sector. I checked Yougov, ICM and Ashcroft, but none of them provided that detail.

    While that's two things I've been wrong on here so far today, at least I hope I was right about the first statement I made...
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Golly - apparently they had a Falklands number plate on it. What a hoot!
    Jeremy Clarkson, Richard Hammond and Richard May flee Argentina under police escort after locals stone cars and Top Gear crew in a row over a Porsche number plate
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:


    Sorry yes I worded my critique poorly - you mentioned in a Labour/SNP way - but if you look at the map of % Yes/No you will see huge areas of the country where No support is very strong but the SNP have seats and Labour probably isn't the challenger. Voters may be tempted to look at the bar graphs in places like Perth and select the challenger most likely to boot the SNP in the Salmonds.

    Just how toxic is the SNP after the referendum - that is the question.

    If the polls are too be believed, that's not even a question. I'm sure you're getting a different vibe from FollowFollow though.

    What polls ?
    The polls that show the SNP sustaining a substantial lead in Holyrood after being 7 years in power, and vying with Labour for biggest Westminster vote share. If you've got any other evidence for 'SNP backlash' (apart from you devoutly wishing it), I'd be fascinated to see it.
    I'd advise everyone to take Scottish polls with a pinch of salt after they missed the crushing 11% for No just 2 weeks ago.
    In that case the 60-40 brigade should also preserve a dignified silence.
    better 4.7% out than 12% out..
    Err, the 60-40 brigade were 9.4% out.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Brent crude down again $93.4 now - despite the middle east at war.

    Extraordinary.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Royale, might I tempt you to peruse the Morris Dancer Party manifesto? It is replete with sensible policies for a happier Britain.

    Just checked, and it actually includes this (relevant to a recent discussion):
    The reversion to proper imperial measurements, for weights, distance, fluid measures and money.
  • Mr. Eagles, Tigranocerta?

    You're nearly 2,000 years out.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TGOHF said:

    Brent crude down again $93.4 now - despite the middle east at war.

    Extraordinary.

    FTSE down 5.7% since the 19th despite the UK staying together.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Miss Plato, argy-bargy indeed.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    TGOHF said:

    Brent crude down again $93.4 now - despite the middle east at war.

    Extraordinary.

    POVPWAS
  • @PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 38 (+2), Con 33 (-1), LD 8 (+1), UKIP 13 (-1), Oth 8 (-1). Tables here: http://t.co/lYS81q2IjA

    26% of women were don't knows..... There's the battleground for next May.

    Good morning.

    Decent poll for Labour in Tory conference week. Usually you'd expect a Tory bounce.

    Reverse bounce effect because of Tory deficit amnesia/never-never giveaways?


    Interesting anyway. More polls needed.



  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    How about foolscap paper?

    Bit of trivia here > it's named after an ancient watermark depicting a jester's cap and bells/conical dunce's hat.

    Mr. Royale, might I tempt you to peruse the Morris Dancer Party manifesto? It is replete with sensible policies for a happier Britain.

    Just checked, and it actually includes this (relevant to a recent discussion):
    The reversion to proper imperial measurements, for weights, distance, fluid measures and money.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Eagles, your reference must be horrendously modern. Operation Market Garden?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited October 2014
    Alistair said:

    TGOHF said:

    Brent crude down again $93.4 now - despite the middle east at war.

    Extraordinary.

    FTSE down 5.7% since the 19th despite the UK staying together.
    Lol - Rio Tinto must be reeling from the Indyref result ...
    Alistair said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:


    Sorry yes I worded my critique poorly - you mentioned in a Labour/SNP way - but if you look at the map of % Yes/No you will see huge areas of the country where No support is very strong but the SNP have seats and Labour probably isn't the challenger. Voters may be tempted to look at the bar graphs in places like Perth and select the challenger most likely to boot the SNP in the Salmonds.

    Just how toxic is the SNP after the referendum - that is the question.

    If the polls are too be believed, that's not even a question. I'm sure you're getting a different vibe from FollowFollow though.

    What polls ?
    The polls that show the SNP sustaining a substantial lead in Holyrood after being 7 years in power, and vying with Labour for biggest Westminster vote share. If you've got any other evidence for 'SNP backlash' (apart from you devoutly wishing it), I'd be fascinated to see it.
    I'd advise everyone to take Scottish polls with a pinch of salt after they missed the crushing 11% for No just 2 weeks ago.
    In that case the 60-40 brigade should also preserve a dignified silence.
    better 4.7% out than 12% out..
    Err, the 60-40 brigade were 9.4% out.
    What were the 52-48 yes out by then ? 17 % ?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534

    Question for Labour supporters.

    Let's say in the election Labour poll around 31%-32% and the Tories get 36%, but due to the dodgy boundaries and lack of EV4EL manage to get a small working majority. Would you happily back Labour as having a mandate to govern?

    I have a feeling such a result long term would do them no good whatsoever.

    The likelihood of Labour winning 325+ seats on those numbers is very very remote.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Miss Plato, never heard of foolscap paper, I must admit.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    More polls needed.

    Like the one showing SNP potentially gaining 20 seats? I'd have thought you'd want fewer of those.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Todays Populus LAB 354 CON 252 LD 18 EICIPM (LAB lead increases)

    Perhaps yesterdays YG was taken outside the tory conference
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Plato said:

    Golly - apparently they had a Falklands number plate on it. What a hoot!

    Jeremy Clarkson, Richard Hammond and Richard May flee Argentina under police escort after locals stone cars and Top Gear crew in a row over a Porsche number plate
    Not quite - It was a UK number plate that ended with the letters FKL according to the T'graph.
  • Mr. Eagles, your reference must be horrendously modern. Operation Market Garden?

    Not that modern.

    Sir Menzies Campbell's father in law was commander of the 1st Airborne Division at Market Garden.
  • Sean_F said:

    Question for Labour supporters.

    Let's say in the election Labour poll around 31%-32% and the Tories get 36%, but due to the dodgy boundaries and lack of EV4EL manage to get a small working majority. Would you happily back Labour as having a mandate to govern?

    I have a feeling such a result long term would do them no good whatsoever.

    The likelihood of Labour winning 325+ seats on those numbers is very very remote.

    Ok maybe the numbers don't quite add up, but you get what I mean. Would Labour be happy with governing on a significantly lower vote share, whilst using Scottish votes to pass English legislation?
  • TGOHF said:

    Brent crude down again $93.4 now - despite the middle east at war.

    Extraordinary.

    That is because of rather bleak overall global economic outlook. Lack of demand. (and an element of strong US domestic supply)
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    The populus Lab share this morning looks remarkably like the Yougov Lab share from just 48 hours ago.

    What happened to YouGov yesterday?

    Just saying.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    It's a very odd size - the sort that looks like A4 but isn't.
    Foolscap is lined, legal-size paper (a paper size found only in North America). It is called foolscap because, in the 18th century, folio-sized paper had the watermark of a fool's cap on it.

    In the UK, foolscap paper is 13" X 8" (c 330mm X 203mm), but paper of the size is now very rarely used, being superseded by A4 (297 x 210). Older people may call A4 "foolscap". Nevertheless, ring binders, lever arch files, suspended files, and other filing related things still use the size.

    Miss Plato, never heard of foolscap paper, I must admit.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TGOHF said:

    Alistair said:

    TGOHF said:

    Brent crude down again $93.4 now - despite the middle east at war.

    Extraordinary.

    FTSE down 5.7% since the 19th despite the UK staying together.
    Lol - the
    Alistair said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:


    Sorry yes I worded my critique poorly - you mentioned in a Labour/SNP way - but if you look at the map of % Yes/No you will see huge areas of the country where No support is very strong but the SNP have seats and Labour probably isn't the challenger. Voters may be tempted to look at the bar graphs in places like Perth and select the challenger most likely to boot the SNP in the Salmonds.

    Just how toxic is the SNP after the referendum - that is the question.

    If the polls are too be believed, that's not even a question. I'm sure you're getting a different vibe from FollowFollow though.

    What polls ?
    The polls that show the SNP sustaining a substantial lead in Holyrood after being 7 years in power, and vying with Labour for biggest Westminster vote share. If you've got any other evidence for 'SNP backlash' (apart from you devoutly wishing it), I'd be fascinated to see it.
    I'd advise everyone to take Scottish polls with a pinch of salt after they missed the crushing 11% for No just 2 weeks ago.
    In that case the 60-40 brigade should also preserve a dignified silence.
    better 4.7% out than 12% out..
    Err, the 60-40 brigade were 9.4% out.
    What were the 52-48 yes out by then ? 17 % ?
    Either we are talking about the absolute difference (your crushing 11%) or we are talking about the Yes response level (in which case Yes missed out by 5.3%)

    Predictions 52-48 to Yes were out 14.6% on absolute difference or 7.3% on Yes response level
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    chestnut said:



    The only demographic or geographic groups that the Conservatives lead in that poll are: those aged 65+, AB voters and the Midlands. Historically, older AB voters have been more likely to turnout and the Midlands has been seen as the election battleground - so it's not all bad news for the Tories - but the real move in the Tories favour is the continued ageing of society.

    The Tories are now the party for the retired. The workers are voting for Labour.

    You seem to be placing all your faith in one pollster.

    IPSOS (telephone polling)

    Private Sector: Tory 42: Lab 29
    FT Workers: Tory 37: Lab 33 (Labour lead among PT workers - more likely to be benefit recipients)
    Homeowners: Tory 38, Lab 28

    Labour have strong leads in the public sector, among the claimant state and among renters - especially in social housing.

    When I look at the unweighted numbers of many polls there appears to be an incredible over-subscription of public sector workers and 2010 Labour voters in some.

    YouGov had a poll the other day, where there was massive regional oversubscription in London and Scotland.

    The more I look at the polls, especially online ones, the more wary I am of their accuracy and the scope for them being targeted by activists whilst failing to connect with ordinary people.
    Give it up

    LAB lead amongst workers

    Tory lead with pensioners (benefits)

    Which category are you in?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Labour supporters relying on the polls reminds me of the hero of the Scottish play relying on the witches.

    Burham Wood come to Dunsinane???....not in this lifetime mate...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046

    Plato said:

    Golly - apparently they had a Falklands number plate on it. What a hoot!

    Jeremy Clarkson, Richard Hammond and Richard May flee Argentina under police escort after locals stone cars and Top Gear crew in a row over a Porsche number plate
    Not quite - It was a UK number plate that ended with the letters FKL according to the T'graph.

    H982 FKL

    I mean it's a lot worse than G4 VIN if you are called Gavin but personalised plates that try to approximate names, etc are all pretty naff.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    BenM said:

    The populus Lab share this morning looks remarkably like the Yougov Lab share from just 48 hours ago.

    What happened to YouGov yesterday?

    Just saying.

    When was the populus research done?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Miss Plato, cheers for the explanation.

    Having just glanced at the 'story' it sounds like some Argentine arseheads somehow managed to take offence at a numberplate for no apparent reason.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The Herald, the Nats paper of choice before the No vote...
    NEVER kick a man when he's down," my dad says.

    He'd make a terrible politician, my dad.

    "Is there ever a better time?" Alex Salmond's opponents seemed to grin as they laced up their best stomping boots for FMQs today.

    It was watch-through-your-fingers stuff.

    Haunted by the rustle of two million No votes, power draining away faster than the fun from a Yes Scotland results party, and even Nicola Sturgeon, absent on personal business, unable to whisper the answers to him, all the FM lacked was a target on his back.

    The Unionists simply couldn't miss.

    So for 30 minutes Mr Salmond was thrown down every circle of political hell until eventually he hit rock bottom - being lectured by Ken Macintosh.
    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/alex-salmond-opponents-put-the-boot-in-at-fmqs.1412272399
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited October 2014
    OT Speaking of burning crosses >

    My vote for best headline today goes to the DT with Lancet editor apologises for Gaza article by scientists who promoted Ku Klux Klan

    I think it was devised using fridge magnets.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    BenM said:

    The populus Lab share this morning looks remarkably like the Yougov Lab share from just 48 hours ago.

    What happened to YouGov yesterday?

    Just saying.

    When was the populus research done?
    Wednesday and yesterday same as last nights YG i think.

    Strange I think the Lab lead is still 3-4 as it has been since March
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    YouGov's methodology looks very suspect to me but maybe it's just the YouGov messengers who are not to be trusted.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited October 2014
    Scott_P said:

    The Herald, the Nats paper of choice before the No vote...

    Sunday Herald was the paper to back Yes, the Herald firmly backed a No.

    Tom Gordon hates Salmond
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,821
    There is actually a case for returning to Imperial -it would ensure that people are numerate. I for one would be stuffed if everything was pounds, shillings, pence, feet, yards -but if brought up on it from birth, it must be extremely beneficial. You can learn the imperial system and pick up the metric system in two seconds, but you can't do the other way around.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    taffys said:

    Labour supporters relying on the polls reminds me of the hero of the Scottish play relying on the witches.

    Burham Wood come to Dunsinane???....not in this lifetime mate...

    Wheras Tories relying on the one poll that puts them 1 pt ahead despite all the others showing them to be behind.

    Is a lot like YES

    independence (tory win) clearly nailed on
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564

    Question for Labour supporters.

    Let's say in the election Labour poll around 31%-32% and the Tories get 36%, but due to the dodgy boundaries and lack of EV4EL manage to get a small working majority. Would you happily back Labour as having a mandate to govern?

    I have a feeling such a result long term would do them no good whatsoever.

    Not likely - the difference between British and Scottish outcomes has been hovering around 2%, and the SNP surge may wipe it out altogether. But yes, we have to go with whatever the current system produces - I don't like it either (I'm a PR man) but it's impossible to govern if most MPs oppose you.
    chestnut said:



    When I look at the unweighted numbers of many polls there appears to be an incredible over-subscription of public sector workers and 2010 Labour voters in some.

    YouGov had a poll the other day, where there was massive regional oversubscription in London and Scotland.

    The more I look at the polls, especially online ones, the more wary I am of their accuracy and the scope for them being targeted by activists whilst failing to connect with ordinary people.

    There's an important statistical point here, separate from political preference. The effect of under- or over-sampling of one group is that the undersampled group get their views uprated and the oversampled group get theirs downrated. Posts that find that e.g. there are too many 2010 Labour voters in a sample don't seem to realise that.

    The only statistically valid effect of an unrepresentative sample is if the small number of the undersampled group are in some way untypical of their group. Say, for instance, that a poll has only half as many 2010 Tories as there really were. The pollster will then double the weight of the ones that he found. If that group is in some way atypical - tending to shift more or less than 2010 Tories as a whole - then it will affect the poll figure, otherwise not.

    The fuzzy point is false recall. If a party becomes really unpopular (as currently the LibDems), people who voted for them may blot out the recollection. That means that the sample will seem to find fewer people who voted LibDem in 2010, and will uprate the remaining super-loyalists. That's dangerous since actually they perhaps found the correct number but some aren't admitting it. Consequence: very unpopular parties may actually be polling higher than reality, and very popular parties lower.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Plato said:

    It's a very odd size - the sort that looks like A4 but isn't.

    Foolscap is lined, legal-size paper (a paper size found only in North America). It is called foolscap because, in the 18th century, folio-sized paper had the watermark of a fool's cap on it.

    In the UK, foolscap paper is 13" X 8" (c 330mm X 203mm), but paper of the size is now very rarely used, being superseded by A4 (297 x 210). Older people may call A4 "foolscap". Nevertheless, ring binders, lever arch files, suspended files, and other filing related things still use the size.

    Miss Plato, never heard of foolscap paper, I must admit.



    Less of the "older people" please!

    I still refer to A4 as foolscap sometimes...
  • taffys said:

    Labour supporters relying on the polls reminds me of the hero of the Scottish play relying on the witches.

    Burham Wood come to Dunsinane???....not in this lifetime mate...

    Wheras Tories relying on the one poll that puts them 1 pt ahead despite all the others showing them to be behind.

    Is a lot like YES

    independence (tory win) clearly nailed on
    There's currently two pollsters whose last poll has the Tories ahead.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Owls, on the other hand, the Scottish polls all underestimated the status quo. In an election, that's the government.
This discussion has been closed.