Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories are right to take heart from today’s YouGov lead
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories are right to take heart from today’s YouGov lead but they’ve still got a huge mountain to climb
Undoubtedly a CON lead with another pollster, YouGov, is a big moment and given it comes after Cameron’s well received conference speech will give cheer to the blues. This morning’s Sun poll with the Tories 1% ahead means that within the past months Ashcroft, ICM, Ipsos-MORI and now YouGov have all had blue leads at one point or another.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Hardly, and there's time aplenty.
I forecast the first crossover by May 2014, level-pegging by January 2015, and a handsome Tory lead on election day...
Free Money ***** Free Money ***** Free Money
Back the Tories at 11/8 with SkyBet (with 48.14% of total stake) to win the Rochester and Strood by-election and back UKIP at 6/5 with Hills (51.86% of stake) likewise and make a 14% profit.
But hurry, this can't last!
As ever, DYOR.
Since at the Labour and Conservative Conferences, spending promises were made regardless of a £100bn deficit, perhaps Lib Dems will join the fantasy world of promising to spend money they don't have.
Unfortunately political parties that promise to increase taxes and lower spending don't get elected. Commentators, apart from Andrew Neil, don't do enough homework to be able to challenge parties and show up their impractical promises.
It has been suggested that UKIP promises would lead to the deficit increasing from £100bn pa to £200bn pa - so perhaps the voters will choose them!
Remember even a handsome CON lead will not be enough. The blues can be 6% ahead and still be losing seats to LAB.
I just find it hard to see where Tories are going to get the extra 5-6%, given I just can't see Labour dropping much below 34-35%...There are too many people who are part of Labour's client base, changing demographics and too many areas where the Tories just don't get any votes i.e Scotland and NE are total write offs for them.
anyway. thought for the day.
Life would be more exciting if Rand Paul was the son of Ru Paul
Increasing your share of the vote while in government is an extremely rare achievement, though not entirely unprecedented:
http://numbercruncheruk.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/the-tory-task-in-historical-perspective.html
Con 35, Lab 34, LD 6, UKIP 14
Less than a week ago: 'For those who were optimistic that the Tories would remain in power post May 2015, today probably extinguished those hopes.' (TSE)
This is a reminder that what gets political anoraks excited is of very little interest to ordinary people. Cameron's speech was on target, and he was massively boosted by the next day's press reporting. It's also possible that Reckless's defection has achieved an unexpected aim: he united the Conservatives with real fire in their eyes and anger in their bellies.
It's also a reminder that a week is a long time in politics and we have 32 of them left. What goes up can come down, and vice versa.
RE: Vehicle Excise Duty
This must be declining as none of our company cars pay any. They are either very low emission petrol or are part electric - with a corresponding reduction in fuel consumption. No doubt HMRC will be moving the goal posts in future.
LD 2010 split is:
Cons; 23
LAB: 29
LD: 25
UKIP:9
Green: 11
LAB retains 80% on its 2010VI and Cons retain 77% of theirs.
For the last 5 YG polls the LAB retention has been lower than their usual average.
Best PM: DC: 40 (37); EdM: 19 (21)
EdM supported by 58% of LAB VI, 7% off LD and 5% of UKIP
DC supported by 96% of Cons; 7% of LAB, 20% of LD and 37% of UKIP
On the YOUGOV internals, only significant shift is Cameron's widening lead vs Miliband as "best PM" - brand Tory unaffected.....
A result of Con 38%, Lab 35%, UKIP 10%, Lib Dem 6%, would give Con 310, Lab 303, Lib Dem 10, according to Baxter.
In reality, the Lib Dems would hold onto a few more seats (but not many more) Labour would lose some to the SNP, UKIP would win Clacton, and probably a couple more, and first time incumbency would reduce Conservative losses to Labour.
I'd suggest something like Con 310, Lab 289, Lib Dem 20, UKIP 3, Others 34, on those numbers.
Although, personally, I can't see the Lib Dems dropping quite that low.
Tories 0.984 = Implied vote share 36.39%
Labour 1.141 = Implied vote share 33.85%
Put through Electoral Calculus.
CON 306, LAB 306.
Voters in the key marginals will opt for the least worst government option. That will be the Tories. No opposition has ever won an election being that disadvantaged on leadership, the future and the economy.
The truth is, you can't kick out an incumbent government as the official opposition *whilst picking up no votes whatsoever *from those that voted for that incumbent government the last time.
It's madness. Tony Blair would have understood this.
This is a Yougov poll and the excitement is overdone.
In my view the "firewall" is overdone too. It assumes that this block of voters can simply be added to what Labour got in 2010. But there is no assurance that they will get all the voters they got in 2010. In Scotland, for example, they definitely won't. Labour has its own losses to UKIP and they come from the 2010 cohort as well. It is entirely possible for Labour to get 25-30% of 2010 Lib Dem voters and still be in the very low 30s.
By giving the Tories a sporting chance by appointing a very poor leader Labour have been good enough to create a genuinely exciting election. What more could this site ask for?
The SNP are consolidating the Yes vote. This includes a major chunk of Labour voters and they are concentrated in Dundee, Glasgow and Lanark. They are probably losing some of their erstwhile supporters who were in the No camp and got a nasty fright.
In short not only is the SNP vote likely to be substantially higher, it will also be differently distributed with a much greater portion of their vote coming from Labour areas. I think we will see the sort of swings in some traditional Labour areas that we saw in 2011. Labour will lose seats in Scotland to the SNP. How many is yet to be determined and will depend on whether the "45" remain as motivated as they are at the moment.
The other notable thing is that the Lib Dems have continued to decline. They are at just 6% in this opinion poll, only one point ahead of the Green Party on 5%. If this ex-Lib Dem support hasn't gone to Labour, where has it gone?
Some of it has gone to the Tories. In this poll the percentage of 2010 Lib Dems now saying they will vote Tory is 23% - so the net Labour advantage is just 6% of the 2010 Lib Dems. Bye, bye firewall.
As you always say, anyone can have an opinion. Real punters put their money where their mouth is. I've backed mine with a four figure sum.
And by strange coincidence it was the same pollster who also stole the headlines but the really extraordinary coincidence is what happened next....
So PB Tories please resume your seats. There's nothing to see here and instead of embarrassing yourselves take the sage advice in Mike's article.
And Labour's vote is soft. Just over half of Labour voters think Ed is the best PM? That is a lot more encouraging for the Tories than a 1% lead.
Lots of people who voted for Gordo won't vote for Ed
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying the Tories will win a majority. But they will definitely be ahead on votes and very likely to have a lead on seats.
Unless our former LibDem MP stands again, being untainted by the coalition, I shan't vote LibDem. Neither will I vote Labour, Tory, or UKIP (for the good and sufficient reasons given here by the political opponents of those various parties).
Looks like a spoiled paper, NOTA.
Keep strolling along.. to oblivion
I think Labour have blown it. The day they decided to play the Tories at their own austerity game was the day they lost. "Tory policies with half the competence" was NEVER going to win votes.
"As you always say, anyone can have an opinion. Real punters put their money where their mouth is. I've backed mine with a four figure sum."
But there are others who bet with their heart and the sadness for these unfortunates is that they face a double whammy on election night when they could have used the four figure sum as a gentle anaesthetic to ease the pain.
In both cases, EdM needs them to get them to actually turnout. Given the confusion and doubt flying around at the moment in general, I don't think Labour can be totally confident.
It'll be interesting to see how that changes the Lab:Con numbers.
So OGH's faith in this number of newly-zealous Labour converts remaining static is perhaps ill-judged? It really only holds if they were never really LibDems in the first place, but votes lent from Labourites. Either way round, not good for the long term prospects of the LibDems.
And what of the LibDem's Right-leaning supporters? They have been able to sit this out for five years in Coalition and reserve judgment. But they are now faced with a stark choice. Do they hope for 5 more years of coalition government? But the LibDems very own Left-Right coalition that could get them to that point is long broken. So they could stay loyal to a broken party - and let in a Labour Party that the feel will undo 5 years of good work, led by a very poor --> potentially disastrous PM. Or they could go Tory in 2015.
I wonder if the further decline of the LibDems to 6% is as a result of these "Orange Bookers" giving up on the LibDems and - looking at the economic progress under Osborne and a party that has the balls to upset a chunk of its core vote by pressing on with gay marriage - are throwing their lot in with the Tories? If so, the two wings of the LibDems may largely balance themselves out for Labour and Conservative fortunes in 2015.
Conservative support for the Union runs at the same level as that of Ulster Protestants (i.e almost 100%) Lib Dem support for the Union is 80-85%, SNP support for independence at about 80%, but c35% of Labour supporters want independence.
"Labour - why would you take the risk?"
Although three years ago, I could not have dreamt that Labour would offer so little reason to consider them in the first place. The blank sheets of paper remain blank; policies came there none.... What do we have instead? Class War - from a millionaire....
I'm also no longer really sure that the 2010 LDs are rock-solid for Labour. Sure, they won't go back to the Lib Dems, and they sure as hell won't vote Tory, but that doesn't mean they won't go elsewhere (namely to the Greens). It's important to remember this is largely a group who only went Lib Dem in the first place because they thought Blair & Brown were too RIGHT-wing, and who defected from the Lib Dems when they signed up to austerity .... if this suicidal Ed Balls line of committing to Tory spending plans is permanent (and I'm rapidly losing hope of them changing it), then I can't see why they'd stick around. Despite all the moronic "Red Ed" chants, it seems pretty obvious to me that Labour's current economic policies are significantly to the right of any of the New Labour manifestoes.
rats, sack...
"The Conservatives need to get UKIP back to 10% or so"
So maybe what the Sun Says about UKIP's surge in Haywood might be to Labour's advantage?
Nothing boosts a parties chances like momentum....
(@Sun_Politics: EXCL: Ukip support in Labour safe seat by-election surges as voters abandon Ed: http://t.co/8gmPUhYoMR)
..... Come on you Northern Fruitcakes!
An equally logical and consistent theory is that they expressed their anger and haven't revisited the decision since. When it comes to the election they will focus on the issues at hand and may change their mind. Or may not.
(BTW, with the 25% firewall - I though I remembered it being in the 30s previously. I think you did some threads on that in the past: do you continue to track the data?)
I'm afraid you're just stating it from your own POV.
If you're in the DE social category the risk is Cameron will cut your benefits
If you're a kipper there's no risk because they're all the same
If you're a labour tribalist the risk is letting the Tories in
If you're an LD the risk is leaving the conservatives alone in govt
If you're a disaffected conservative there's no risk Balls has no more room for manoeuvre than Osborne
This is just lazy thinking and conservative hoping for votes on "scary Ed" instead of actually having some sensible proposals aren't going to win a majority,
They know they are led by an inept duffer and are about to suffer a crushing defeat at the hands of Scipio Cameron.
Just to repeat my prediction for next May:-
Con 35, Lab 25, UKIP 23. SNP to win more votes in Scotland that Lib Dems in all GB. Seat predictions almost impossibly difficult, but I'd be astonished if these numbers only gave the Tories a majority of 30 (as EC suggests): 70-100 far more likely. (See Sean Fear [6.32am] below,)
Do Tory Peebies think that Cameron, with a clear majority, should keep or repeal the Five Year Act? Should it be the subject of a manifesto promise?
That said, if the SNP does win a bucket load of seats and FPTP still delivers a Labour minority, that is likely to mean that Labour has won most seats in England and so will be in a position to forma government safe in the knowledge that the SNP will either sit out votes or vote with Labour on pan-UK ones on the basis that it will not want to be seen to be supporting the Tories.
In the YouGov after Labour's conference a large chunk of these voters moved from the blue and yellow columns to the red column, and now after the Tory conference a lot of them have moved over to the blues (to the point where there is almost an even split between the big three).
God knows what this means for the general election campaign when there will be four parties getting airtime, but aside from a small chunk of defectors to Ukip that could return to the Tories, most of the people who voted Lib Dem seem to be up for grabs.
Links to YouGov tables:
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/v8ksruip3d/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-180914.pdf
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/yhj0dmki06/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-250914.pdf
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/t422bin1xy/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-021014.pdf
This week lots of Dave = Tory bounce
What's going to happen during a four week general election campaign, because you can't hide Ed for four weeks.
This might become clearer after the LibDem conference - their last chance this year to set out some policy and reasons why they should continue to exist.
Quite an effective strategy to firm up the 2010 Lib Dems in the Labour column.
" Police forces across Britain are poised to arrest hundreds of suspected child abusers as part of a massive crackdown on the grooming of vulnerable young girls.
‘Wave after wave’ of arrests will be made between now until Christmas in response to the ‘epidemic’ of child sexual exploitation that has haunted the nation for two decades. Police are confident that the raids will lead to scores of court cases across the country, with suspects facing charges of child abduction, rape, multiple rape and sexual assault.
In Greater Manchester alone, more than 180 suspects are set to be rounded up in an operation described by sources as a ‘day of reckoning’ for men who have tormented girls as young as ten. Raids are also scheduled to take place in the south of England within the next few weeks, with many others set to follow before the end of the year. "
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2738773/Police-plan-mass-raids-sex-gangs-Day-reckoning-hundreds-child-abusers-180-mainly-Asian-men-targeted-Manchester-alone.html
I wonder if Mike Penning, Minister of State for Policing, Criminal Justice and Victims has any thoughts on police strategy on this issue.
He doesn't seem to have had any thing to say about the Rotherham report yet.
Core vote figures roughly in May 2014: "Labour 31%, Conservatives 27%, Liberal Democrats 9% and the others, doubtless boosted by Ukip this time, 15%."
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/01/david-cameron-oratory-trusdt-question-labour
If so, perhaps he might take a look at what's top of the policies list at the government website for the Minister of State for Policing, Criminal Justice and Victims:
https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/minister-of-state-policing-and-criminal-justice
And at the top of that policies list is 'Ending violence against women and girls in the UK'
F1: pre-qualifying piece will be up sometime today. I will peruse the markets, just in case, but don't anticipate a tip due to a combination of lack of P3 viewing (it's very early tomorrow morning) and the off-chance of a typhoon.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Richard, I share Mr. Jessop's view on this. The crude view of woman as victim and man as perpetrator is not reflective of reality, where a large minority (circa 40%) of domestic violence victims are men.
For the latest Ashcroft poll, the 'definite' support was: Con 18%, Lab 20%, LD 2%, UKIP 8%
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/ANP-summary-1409291.pdf
The Tories will be wanting to make this a presidential election, Labour not.
Someone a few days ago raised the possibility that Labour might seek to draft Peter Mandelson, yet again. I wonder if that could happen.
It is a question of "ownership" of the current coalition's achievements.
Parliament prologued on Mar 31
Election May 7
Of course this could mean more middle of the road politics and decisions, which may be not what is required at certain times. However, Germany does not appear to have done too badly under coalitions.
Now how many people here think the police have been doing their job properly on this issue ?