Interesting that inside a couple of weeks there has been two relatively unusual YouGov polls which, rather happily, managed to coincide and support the political agenda of the Murdoch newspaper publishing them!
Inside a couple of weeks there has been two relatively unusual YouGov polls which, rather happily, managed to coincide and support the political agenda of the Murdoch newspaper paying for them!
I'm just saying.
So how do you explain the ICM phone poll for the Guardian, that had No, barely ahead, and the ICM online poll for the Telegraph which had Yes ahead by 8%
Both those papers wanted Scotland to remain in the Union.
My first comment here rather than just reading the blog etc.
Anyone else noticed that today's YouGov shows 23% of 2010 LDs said CON (with 29% LAB, 9% UKIP)?
Compare to 25 Sep YouGov which had a 6 point LAB lead. There only 8% 2010 LDs said CON, 35% LAB, 14% UKIP.
Enough to (partially) explain the swing?
If this 23% is sustained (and it's not reflected in Populus, which has only 8% of 2010 LDs saying CON, and on a random look through past YouGovs I can't find a comparable figure), it would give the Tories a comparable "electoral crutch" to Labour. Suspect it won't be though and that 23% will be a blip.
Golly - apparently they had a Falklands number plate on it. What a hoot!
Jeremy Clarkson, Richard Hammond and Richard May flee Argentina under police escort after locals stone cars and Top Gear crew in a row over a Porsche number plate
Not quite - It was a UK number plate that ended with the letters FKL according to the T'graph.
H982 FKL
I mean it's a lot worse than G4 VIN if you are called Gavin but personalised plates that try to approximate names, etc are all pretty naff.
My favorite story (no idea if it is urban myth) is that the Queen owns all the licence plates beginning XHM and gives them out to her friends as appropriate (Constantine of Greece is is XHM1, Giray Khan of Crimea is XHM2, etc etc). I was told it by Giray Khan's grandson, but he may have been making it up...
There's currently two pollsters whose last poll has the Tories ahead.
During the Tory conference. By 1pt. Last week's Labour conference saw Labour leads of 6pts. Next week will show the yellow pox up.
Have some people forgotten the basic maxim - polls during conference season are skewed.
Do they get a conference bounce any more? Or does having Clegg in the news defending a largely blue government tend to send them even further backwards?
There's currently two pollsters whose last poll has the Tories ahead.
During the Tory conference. By 1pt. Last week's Labour conference saw Labour leads of 6pts. Next week will show the yellow pox up.
Have some people forgotten the basic maxim - polls during conference season are skewed.
Do they get a conference bounce any more? Or does having Clegg in the news defending a largely blue government tend to send them even further backwards?
Normally they do, and normally they go first however this conference season they are going last.
Our 'moderate' militants cover themselves in glory by massacring children in Homs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7k0ChgK4jYw#t=89 These are the nice ones we're getting Saudi Arabia to train 15,000 more of.
Fieldwork in the wake of the Clacton by-election result?
That should be an amusing poll.
And the Heywood and Middleton result as well.
If the Heywood and Middleton result features in more media coverage than the Clacton result then that will only make the ICM poll even more hilarious.
The September ICM is the only poll since Populus in July that had UKIP on less than 10%, and the last three ICM polls have been distinctive in giving the Lib Dems a poll share lead over UKIP. The June ICM, the first following UKIPs triumph at the European elections in May, had UKIP leading the Lib Dems by 16% - 10%.
It seems sensible to anticipate a huge swing to UKIP in the October ICM poll.
My first comment here rather than just reading the blog etc.
Anyone else noticed that today's YouGov shows 23% of 2010 LDs said CON (with 29% LAB, 9% UKIP)?
Compare to 25 Sep YouGov which had a 6 point LAB lead. There only 8% 2010 LDs said CON, 35% LAB, 14% UKIP.
Enough to (partially) explain the swing?
If this 23% is sustained (and it's not reflected in Populus, which has only 8% of 2010 LDs saying CON, and on a random look through past YouGovs I can't find a comparable figure), it would give the Tories a comparable "electoral crutch" to Labour. Suspect it won't be though and that 23% will be a blip.
I did notice that, what I compared it to was the August poll when the Tories and Lab were tied.
Then it was 16% of 2010 Lib Dems who expressed a voting intention now planned to vote Tory (29% said they were voting Lab)
Populus Lab 38, Con 33 Yougov Con 35, Lab 34 Com Res Lab 35, Con 29, Ahcroft Lab 32, Con 32, Opinium Lab 34, Con 32,
Averaging Lab 34.6%, Con 32.2%.
I think I will update that on a regular basis just to see who would be PM!!!
Please don't.
You already spam us with your EICIPM posts already which don't tell anyone anything. We all know applying poll numbers showing a Labour lead with UNS to electoral calculus show that outcome.
The Herald, the Nats paper of choice before the No vote...
Sunday Herald was the paper to back Yes, the Herald firmly backed a No.
Amazing the ignorance shown on here by some of those who insist on pronouncing on matters Scottish.
Mr Divvie - what is your current prediction for Scotland at GE 2015?
Down thread I said my gut guess at the moment is SNP 15-ish, Cons 2. I'd add LDs 3 and therefore suggest Lab 39ish, but very much blindfold dart throwing at this stage.
The Herald, the Nats paper of choice before the No vote...
Sunday Herald was the paper to back Yes, the Herald firmly backed a No.
Amazing the ignorance shown on here by some of those who insist on pronouncing on matters Scottish.
Tipping point?
The PB echo..
So in other words, we PB Tories were right about what the Indyref result would be, unlike you Nats, who were on the ground. So our echo chamber was a damn sight more accurate than the Nat echo chamber. Keep listening to us, you Nats might learn something. Sorry to put the boot in, but even Rogerdamus, got the referendum result spot on.
Roger is now king of forecasts for Scotland and the Oscars.
The Herald, the Nats paper of choice before the No vote...
Sunday Herald was the paper to back Yes, the Herald firmly backed a No.
Amazing the ignorance shown on here by some of those who insist on pronouncing on matters Scottish.
Mr Divvie - what is your current prediction for Scotland at GE 2015?
Down thread I said my gut guess at the moment is SNP 15-ish, Cons 2. I'd add LDs 3 and therefore suggest Lab 39ish, but very much blindfold dart throwing at this stage.
Usual Nat pie in the sky; " Alex Salmond was humiliated after his predictions of increasing the number of SNP MPs from seven to 20 fell apart, with the Nationalists winning only six seats." 2010
Golly - apparently they had a Falklands number plate on it. What a hoot!
Jeremy Clarkson, Richard Hammond and Richard May flee Argentina under police escort after locals stone cars and Top Gear crew in a row over a Porsche number plate
Not quite - It was a UK number plate that ended with the letters FKL according to the T'graph.
H982 FKL
I mean it's a lot worse than G4 VIN if you are called Gavin but personalised plates that try to approximate names, etc are all pretty naff.
Populus Lab 38, Con 33 Yougov Con 35, Lab 34 Com Res Lab 35, Con 29, Ahcroft Lab 32, Con 32, Opinium Lab 34, Con 32,
Averaging Lab 34.6%, Con 32.2%.
I think I will update that on a regular basis just to see who would be PM!!!
Please don't.
You already spam us with your EICIPM posts already which don't tell anyone anything. We all know applying poll numbers showing a Labour lead with UNS to electoral calculus show that outcome.
Heartily seconded. My only real reaction to yougov last night was to hope that it would silence the village idiot.
The Herald, the Nats paper of choice before the No vote...
NEVER kick a man when he's down," my dad says.
He'd make a terrible politician, my dad.
"Is there ever a better time?" Alex Salmond's opponents seemed to grin as they laced up their best stomping boots for FMQs today.
It was watch-through-your-fingers stuff.
Haunted by the rustle of two million No votes, power draining away faster than the fun from a Yes Scotland results party, and even Nicola Sturgeon, absent on personal business, unable to whisper the answers to him, all the FM lacked was a target on his back.
The Unionists simply couldn't miss.
So for 30 minutes Mr Salmond was thrown down every circle of political hell until eventually he hit rock bottom - being lectured by Ken Macintosh.
And I responded at that time, though as is your wont, you then scuttled off. Your request remains lodged where the sun don't shine.
You were wrong about expat longtime Nat Welsh, admit it.
God, you're tedious. At the second time of posting:
'But after mouthing off about the Labour Party, it’s only fair that I make a personal declaration as to where my own politics lie today. Like most people, I’ve moved away from my tartan Tory perception of the SNP and accept it as a benign, bourgeois party of the centre-left. Yes, it’s nakedly opportunist, but that factor certainly doesn’t distinguish it in modern politics, and its fairly narrow goal of Scottish independence makes it harder for it to sell out. Nonetheless, its not my party, I’ve never voted for them and would find it hard to do so, for the same reasons I can no longer vote Labour and will obviously never vote Conservative – it’s not in my internationalist DNA. Having long given up on parties, I’m stuck with having my political aspirations for these islands placed squarely in the hands of a new, broadly-based, grass roots campaign led by a different generation, and I wouldn’t want it any other way. I’m now a dedicated ‘phase three’ yes man: let’s get it sorted out. But I want as many of my old buddies, and as many real Labour people on that journey as possible, and for bigger reasons than to deliver a yes vote for social progress on the 18th. That, as I’ve said, is only part of the process. I want them onside, because the core values that they believe in; fairness, justice and democracy, are the only values that a new Scotland -and a new England- can be constructed on.'
Part of my degree was in paper conservation - yeah, I know...
I stopped interchanging Foolscap with A4 when I was taken literally by someone who knew his stationery onions and ended up with several reams the wrong size/hung over the edge of my A4 folder. A bit like a yard when you want a metre for a good reason.
It's a very odd size - the sort that looks like A4 but isn't.
Foolscap is lined, legal-size paper (a paper size found only in North America). It is called foolscap because, in the 18th century, folio-sized paper had the watermark of a fool's cap on it.
In the UK, foolscap paper is 13" X 8" (c 330mm X 203mm), but paper of the size is now very rarely used, being superseded by A4 (297 x 210). Older people may call A4 "foolscap". Nevertheless, ring binders, lever arch files, suspended files, and other filing related things still use the size.
My first comment here rather than just reading the blog etc.
Anyone else noticed that today's YouGov shows 23% of 2010 LDs said CON (with 29% LAB, 9% UKIP)?
Compare to 25 Sep YouGov which had a 6 point LAB lead. There only 8% 2010 LDs said CON, 35% LAB, 14% UKIP.
Enough to (partially) explain the swing?
If this 23% is sustained (and it's not reflected in Populus, which has only 8% of 2010 LDs saying CON, and on a random look through past YouGovs I can't find a comparable figure), it would give the Tories a comparable "electoral crutch" to Labour. Suspect it won't be though and that 23% will be a blip.
made my first by- election bet -UKIP to get 40-50% in Clacton. I think the Reckless defection will stop some tories voting UKIP that might have otherwise here . So think UKIP will not get as much as initially though
And I responded at that time, though as is your wont, you then scuttled off. Your request remains lodged where the sun don't shine.
You were wrong about expat longtime Nat Welsh, admit it.
God, you're tedious. At the second time of posting.
'But after mouthing off about the Labour Party, it’s only fair that I make a personal declaration as to where my own politics lie today. Like most people, I’ve moved away from my tartan Tory perception of the SNP and accept it as a benign, bourgeois party of the centre-left. Yes, it’s nakedly opportunist, but that factor certainly doesn’t distinguish it in modern politics, and its fairly narrow goal of Scottish independence makes it harder for it to sell out. Nonetheless, its not my party, I’ve never voted for them and would find it hard to do so, for the same reasons I can no longer vote Labour and will obviously never vote Conservative – it’s not in my internationalist DNA. Having long given up on parties, I’m stuck with having my political aspirations for these islands placed squarely in the hands of a new, broadly-based, grass roots campaign led by a different generation, and I wouldn’t want it any other way. I’m now a dedicated ‘phase three’ yes man: let’s get it sorted out. But I want as many of my old buddies, and as many real Labour people on that journey as possible, and for bigger reasons than to deliver a yes vote for social progress on the 18th. That, as I’ve said, is only part of the process. I want them onside, because the core values that they believe in; fairness, justice and democracy, are the only values that a new Scotland -and a new England- can be constructed on.'
The twerp has never voted for your revolting party because he hasn't lived in Scotland for decades. What a creep, sticking his bourbon blighted nose into other people's business.
The Herald, the Nats paper of choice before the No vote...
NEVER kick a man when he's down," my dad says.
He'd make a terrible politician, my dad.
"Is there ever a better time?" Alex Salmond's opponents seemed to grin as they laced up their best stomping boots for FMQs today.
It was watch-through-your-fingers stuff.
Haunted by the rustle of two million No votes, power draining away faster than the fun from a Yes Scotland results party, and even Nicola Sturgeon, absent on personal business, unable to whisper the answers to him, all the FM lacked was a target on his back.
The Unionists simply couldn't miss.
So for 30 minutes Mr Salmond was thrown down every circle of political hell until eventually he hit rock bottom - being lectured by Ken Macintosh.
My first comment here rather than just reading the blog etc.
Anyone else noticed that today's YouGov shows 23% of 2010 LDs said CON (with 29% LAB, 9% UKIP)?
Compare to 25 Sep YouGov which had a 6 point LAB lead. There only 8% 2010 LDs said CON, 35% LAB, 14% UKIP.
Enough to (partially) explain the swing?
If this 23% is sustained (and it's not reflected in Populus, which has only 8% of 2010 LDs saying CON, and on a random look through past YouGovs I can't find a comparable figure), it would give the Tories a comparable "electoral crutch" to Labour. Suspect it won't be though and that 23% will be a blip.
I did notice that, what I compared it to was the August poll when the Tories and Lab were tied.
Then it was 16% of 2010 Lib Dems who expressed a voting intention now planned to vote Tory (29% said they were voting Lab)
Might be something to keep an eye on then if we start to see a few more polls with CON close/tied/ahead. Probably still a blip, but would be interesting if not.
@Plato and others. Thanks. It's Mr Penguin btw...!
Are you going to be in Clacton for the Kippers next week? I keep being cajoled into going for the Blue Team but can't make it. Sounds like great fun, even though I expect us to get thrashed.
Rochester & Strood is another matter... *sharpens knives*
The Herald, the Nats paper of choice before the No vote...
NEVER kick a man when he's down," my dad says.
He'd make a terrible politician, my dad.
"Is there ever a better time?" Alex Salmond's opponents seemed to grin as they laced up their best stomping boots for FMQs today.
It was watch-through-your-fingers stuff.
Haunted by the rustle of two million No votes, power draining away faster than the fun from a Yes Scotland results party, and even Nicola Sturgeon, absent on personal business, unable to whisper the answers to him, all the FM lacked was a target on his back.
The Unionists simply couldn't miss.
So for 30 minutes Mr Salmond was thrown down every circle of political hell until eventually he hit rock bottom - being lectured by Ken Macintosh.
made my first by- election bet -UKIP to get 40-50% in Clacton. I think the Reckless defection will stop some tories voting UKIP that might have otherwise here . So think UKIP will not get as much as initially though
Most Clacton voters won't have any idea who Reckless is, or what he's like, or that he's defected. We all overestimate that sort of thing here. My impression, maybe wrong, is that CCHQ has written Clacton off and is sending the heavy artillery to Rochester, which is where an opinion poll would be really useful. An interesting quirk is that if Carswell is elected next week, he can move the writ for Rochester, upsetting the "play it long" Tory strategy.
And I responded at that time, though as is your wont, you then scuttled off. Your request remains lodged where the sun don't shine.
You were wrong about expat longtime Nat Welsh, admit it.
God, you're tedious. At the second time of posting.
'But after mouthing off about the Labour Party, it’s only fair that I make a personal declaration as to where my own politics lie today. Like most people, I’ve moved away from my tartan Tory perception of the SNP and accept it as a benign, bourgeois party of the centre-left. Yes, it’s nakedly opportunist, but that factor certainly doesn’t distinguish it in modern politics, and its fairly narrow goal of Scottish independence makes it harder for it to sell out. Nonetheless, its not my party. Having long given up on parties, I’m stuck with having my political aspirations for these islands placed squarely in the hands of a new, broadly-based, grass roots campaign led by a different generation, and I wouldn’t want it any other way. I’m now a dedicated ‘phase three’ yes man: let’s get it sorted out. But I want as many of my old buddies, and as many real Labour people on that journey as possible, and for bigger reasons than to deliver a yes vote for social progress on the 18th. That, as I’ve said, is only part of the process. I want them onside, because the core values that they believe in; fairness, justice and democracy, are the only values that a new Scotland -and a new England- can be constructed on.'
The twerp has never voted for your revolting party because he hasn't lived in Scotland for decades. What a creep, sticking his bourbon blighted nose into other people's business.
And how is it your business whether he does so or not? He is, by the way, a great and talented writer who has done as much as anyone in his generation to affect the way Scotland sees itself and is seen by others.
The Herald, the Nats paper of choice before the No vote...
NEVER kick a man when he's down," my dad says.
He'd make a terrible politician, my dad.
"Is there ever a better time?" Alex Salmond's opponents seemed to grin as they laced up their best stomping boots for FMQs today.
It was watch-through-your-fingers stuff.
Haunted by the rustle of two million No votes, power draining away faster than the fun from a Yes Scotland results party, and even Nicola Sturgeon, absent on personal business, unable to whisper the answers to him, all the FM lacked was a target on his back.
The Unionists simply couldn't miss.
So for 30 minutes Mr Salmond was thrown down every circle of political hell until eventually he hit rock bottom - being lectured by Ken Macintosh.
@Cameron Conference Rap - where is it written that this is bad for Cameron?
Most raps include shooting, gansta slang and swearing. There's a risk that (like the Gene Hunt attack) it makes him look quite cool, and crowds out Ed.
Are you going to be in Clacton for the Kippers next week? I keep being cajoled into going for the Blue Team but can't make it. Sounds like great fun, even though I expect us to get thrashed.
Rochester & Strood is another matter... *sharpens knives*
The Herald, the Nats paper of choice before the No vote...
NEVER kick a man when he's down," my dad says.
He'd make a terrible politician, my dad.
"Is there ever a better time?" Alex Salmond's opponents seemed to grin as they laced up their best stomping boots for FMQs today.
It was watch-through-your-fingers stuff.
Haunted by the rustle of two million No votes, power draining away faster than the fun from a Yes Scotland results party, and even Nicola Sturgeon, absent on personal business, unable to whisper the answers to him, all the FM lacked was a target on his back.
The Unionists simply couldn't miss.
So for 30 minutes Mr Salmond was thrown down every circle of political hell until eventually he hit rock bottom - being lectured by Ken Macintosh.
And I responded at that time, though as is your wont, you then scuttled off. Your request remains lodged where the sun don't shine.
You were wrong about expat longtime Nat Welsh, admit it.
God, you're tedious. At the second time of posting.
'But after mouthing off about the Labour Party, it’s only fair that I make a personal declaration as to where my own politics lie today. Like most people, I’ve moved away from my tartan Tory perception of the SNP and accept it as a benign, bourgeois party of the centre-left. Yes, it’s nakedly opportunist, but that factor certainly doesn’t distinguish it in modern politics, and its fairly narrow goal of Scottish independence makes it harder for it to sell out. Nonetheless, its not my party. Having long given up on parties, I’m stuck with having my political aspirations for these islands placed squarely in the hands of a new, broadly-based, grass roots campaign led by a different generation, and I wouldn’t want it any other way. I’m now a dedicated ‘phase three’ yes man: let’s get it sorted out. But I want as many of my old buddies, and as many real Labour people on that journey as possible, and for bigger reasons than to deliver a yes vote for social progress on the 18th. That, as I’ve said, is only part of the process. I want them onside, because the core values that they believe in; fairness, justice and democracy, are the only values that a new Scotland -and a new England- can be constructed on.'
The twerp has never voted for your revolting party because he hasn't lived in Scotland for decades. What a creep, sticking his bourbon blighted nose into other people's business.
And how is it your business whether he does so or not? He is, by the way, a great and talented writer who has done as much as anyone in his generation to affect the way Scotland sees itself and is seen by others.
Is it your time of the month, perhaps?
He's unreadable. I'd be amazed if anyone on PB has ever read his gibberish from cover to cover.
And I responded at that time, though as is your wont, you then scuttled off. Your request remains lodged where the sun don't shine.
You were wrong about expat longtime Nat Welsh, admit it.
God, you're tedious. At the second time of posting.
'But after mouthing off about the Labour Party, it’s only fair that I make a personal declaration as to where my own politics lie today. Like most people, I’ve moved away from my tartan Tory perception of the SNP and accept it as a benign, bourgeois party of the centre-left. Yes, it’s nakedly opportunist, but that factor certainly doesn’t distinguish it in modern politics, and its fairly narrow goal of Scottish independence makes it harder for it to sell out. Nonetheless, its not my party. Having long given up on parties, I’m stuck with having my political aspirations for these islands placed squarely in the hands of a new, broadly-based, grass roots campaign led by a different generation, and I wouldn’t want it any other way. I’m now a dedicated ‘phase three’ yes man: let’s get it sorted out. But I want as many of my old buddies, and as many real Labour people on that journey as possible, and for bigger reasons than to deliver a yes vote for social progress on the 18th. That, as I’ve said, is only part of the process. I want them onside, because the core values that they believe in; fairness, justice and democracy, are the only values that a new Scotland -and a new England- can be constructed on.'
The twerp has never voted for your revolting party because he hasn't lived in Scotland for decades. What a creep, sticking his bourbon blighted nose into other people's business.
And how is it your business whether he does so or not? He is, by the way, a great and talented writer who has done as much as anyone in his generation to affect the way Scotland sees itself and is seen by others.
Is it your time of the month, perhaps?
Unless it is an in-joke between you and @MonikerDiCanio that comment is out of order.
Another_richard - Why don't you stand as the South Yorkshire Police & Crime Commissioner.
I assume you won't be voting UKIP in that election, as they've chosen as candidate a former South Yorkshire copper who occasionally worked in Rotherham?
I prefer to do things I am good at and I suspect that doesn't include being a PCC.
I did hear the UKIP candidate on the radio a few days ago.
He sounded deeply unimpressive.
I really don't think UKIP would be any more effective in government than the other parties but as they're not going to be in government then they remain a free anti-establishment protest vote.
For the SYPCC, as UKIP provide the only realistic alternative to beating Labour they will unenthusiastically get my vote. I know Labour will be crap but I don't know if UKIP will be if they win. So I'll hope to be pleasantly surprised.
Might I ask who you will vote for Eagles ? As I remember its a STV election so you can vote Con then UKIP.
My impression, maybe wrong, is that CCHQ has written Clacton off and is sending the heavy artillery to Rochester, which is where an opinion poll would be really useful.
An interesting quirk is that if Carswell is elected next week, he can move the writ for Rochester, upsetting the "play it long" Tory strategy.
The Telegraph reports the Conservatives planning a primary to select their Rochester candidate.
Its not clear if this is an expensive all postal-vote, or a caucus.
Isn't it Josias Jessop who is so angered that Labour are planning a minister to deal with violence against women and girls and ignoring that against men and boys ?
If so, perhaps he might take a look at what's top of the policies list at the government website for the Minister of State for Policing, Criminal Justice and Victims:
And at the top of that policies list is 'Ending violence against women and girls in the UK'
Yep, I'd like to see more concentration on male victims as well (and particularly on raising awareness that it happens to boys and men as well. This blindness infects all parties and governments.
But that's a very different thing from having a *minister* looking at women and girls alone. That's a terrible message to send as the prominence is so much greater.
So has anyone noticed 'wave after wave' of arrests ?
" Police forces across Britain are poised to arrest hundreds of suspected child abusers as part of a massive crackdown on the grooming of vulnerable young girls.
‘Wave after wave’ of arrests will be made between now until Christmas in response to the ‘epidemic’ of child sexual exploitation that has haunted the nation for two decades. Police are confident that the raids will lead to scores of court cases across the country, with suspects facing charges of child abduction, rape, multiple rape and sexual assault.
In Greater Manchester alone, more than 180 suspects are set to be rounded up in an operation described by sources as a ‘day of reckoning’ for men who have tormented girls as young as ten. Raids are also scheduled to take place in the south of England within the next few weeks, with many others set to follow before the end of the year. "
I wonder if Mike Penning, Minister of State for Policing, Criminal Justice and Victims has any thoughts on police strategy on this issue.
He doesn't seem to have had any thing to say about the Rotherham report yet.
Of course he has thoughts. And he keeps them to himself. Do you really want politicians intervening in operational policing, just like they do in Iran, North Korea and elsewhere?
If the police aren't doing their job then I would expect the Minister for Policing to take some action.
Now how many people here think the police have been doing their job properly on this issue ?
On your definition of "doing their job" and your timetable? Perhaps you'd like to have a thousand votes as well, instead of just the one.
It wasn't me who gave a load of big talk about a 'day of reckoning' or about 'wave after wave of arrests'.
It was the plods.
I'm just one of those people who expect others to do what they promise to do.
More details on the Begg case - I'm not a fan of his apparent views, but if we believe in equal rights before the law, he appears to have a case for compensation for wrongful imprisonment:
The case casts a sidelight on our shifting views on Syria - "We support the opposition, by all means go and help them" to "Er, well, maybe we don't support them quite so much, so you're under arrest".
Another_richard - Why don't you stand as the South Yorkshire Police & Crime Commissioner.
I assume you won't be voting UKIP in that election, as they've chosen as candidate a former South Yorkshire copper who occasionally worked in Rotherham?
I prefer to do things I am good at and I suspect that doesn't include being a PCC.
I did hear the UKIP candidate on the radio a few days ago.
He sounded deeply unimpressive.
I really don't think UKIP would be any more effective in government than the other parties but as they're not going to be in government then they remain a free anti-establishment protest vote.
For the SYPCC, as UKIP provide the only realistic alternative to beating Labour they will unenthusiastically get my vote. I know Labour will be crap but I don't know if UKIP will be if they win. So I'll hope to be pleasantly surprised.
Might I ask who you will vote for Eagles ? As I remember its a STV election so you can vote Con then UKIP.
I haven't made up my mind yet.
I'm on holiday on Election Day. So I might officially abstain and not get a postal ballot.
made my first by- election bet -UKIP to get 40-50% in Clacton. I think the Reckless defection will stop some tories voting UKIP that might have otherwise here . So think UKIP will not get as much as initially though
state - yes, I think this is probably the value bet at 9/4 with Ladbrokes. What will also undoubtedly help the Tories, perhaps quite significantly, is Dave's quite brilliant Conference speech. Good luck with your virgin bet!
And I responded at that time, though as is your wont, you then scuttled off. Your request remains lodged where the sun don't shine.
You were wrong about expat longtime Nat Welsh, admit it.
God, you're tedious. At the second time of posting.
'But after mouthing off about the Labour Party, it’s only fair that I make a personal declaration as to where my own politics lie today. Like most people, I’ve moved away from my tartan Tory perception of the SNP and accept it as a benign, bourgeois party of the centre-left. Yes, it’s nakedly opportunist, but that factor certainly doesn’t distinguish it in modern politics, and its fairly narrow goal of Scottish independence makes it harder for it to sell out. Nonetheless, its not my party. But I want as many of my old buddies, and as many real Labour people on that journey as possible, and for bigger reasons than to deliver a yes vote for social progress on the 18th. That, as I’ve said, is only part of the process. I want them onside, because the core values that they believe in; fairness, justice and democracy, are the only values that a new Scotland -and a new England- can be constructed on.'
The twerp has never voted for your revolting party because he hasn't lived in Scotland for decades. What a creep, sticking his bourbon blighted nose into other people's business.
And how is it your business whether he does so or not? He is, by the way, a great and talented writer who has done as much as anyone in his generation to affect the way Scotland sees itself and is seen by others.
Is it your time of the month, perhaps?
He's unreadable. I'd be amazed if anyone on PB has ever read his gibberish from cover to cover.
made my first by- election bet -UKIP to get 40-50% in Clacton. I think the Reckless defection will stop some tories voting UKIP that might have otherwise here . So think UKIP will not get as much as initially though
state - yes, I think this is probably the value bet at 9/4 with Ladbrokes. What will also undoubtedly help the Tories, perhaps quite significantly, is Dave's quite brilliant Conference speech. Good luck with your virgin bet!
The twerp has never voted for your revolting party because he hasn't lived in Scotland for decades. What a creep, sticking his bourbon blighted nose into other people's business.
"bourbon" ? More likely to be something a bit more Central American.
He has made a fortune by writing the same book 10 times - more power to him for the hustle.
The Nat campaign is similar to the Green/AGW - is has morphed into a far left battle on "social justice" - what they want is communism and to obtain what others have by statist means and they have used the SNP and "Yes" as a cover to get it.
Another_richard - Why don't you stand as the South Yorkshire Police & Crime Commissioner.
I assume you won't be voting UKIP in that election, as they've chosen as candidate a former South Yorkshire copper who occasionally worked in Rotherham?
I prefer to do things I am good at and I suspect that doesn't include being a PCC.
I did hear the UKIP candidate on the radio a few days ago.
He sounded deeply unimpressive.
I really don't think UKIP would be any more effective in government than the other parties but as they're not going to be in government then they remain a free anti-establishment protest vote.
For the SYPCC, as UKIP provide the only realistic alternative to beating Labour they will unenthusiastically get my vote. I know Labour will be crap but I don't know if UKIP will be if they win. So I'll hope to be pleasantly surprised.
Might I ask who you will vote for Eagles ? As I remember its a STV election so you can vote Con then UKIP.
I haven't made up my mind yet.
I'm on holiday on Election Day. So I might officially abstain and not get a postal ballot.
I don't believe it! About you not voting: I mean where is your fervor?
And I responded at that time, though as is your wont, you then scuttled off. Your request remains lodged where the sun don't shine.
You were wrong about expat longtime Nat Welsh, admit it.
God, you're tedious. At the second time of posting.
'But after mouthing off about the Labour Party, it’s only fair that I make a personal declaration as to where my own politics lie today. Like most people, That, as I’ve said, is only part of the process. I want them onside, because the core values that they believe in; fairness, justice and democracy, are the only values that a new Scotland -and a new England- can be constructed on.'
The twerp has never voted for your revolting party because he hasn't lived in Scotland for decades. What a creep, sticking his bourbon blighted nose into other people's business.
And how is it your business whether he does so or not? He is, by the way, a great and talented writer who has done as much as anyone in his generation to affect the way Scotland sees itself and is seen by others.
Is it your time of the month, perhaps?
Unless it is an in-joke between you and @MonikerDiCanio that comment is out of order.
The Herald, the Nats paper of choice before the No vote...
NEVER kick a man when he's down," my dad says.
He'd make a terrible politician, my dad.
"Is there ever a better time?" Alex Salmond's opponents seemed to grin as they laced up their best stomping boots for FMQs today.
It was watch-through-your-fingers stuff.
Haunted by the rustle of two million No votes, power draining away faster than the fun from a Yes Scotland results party, and even Nicola Sturgeon, absent on personal business, unable to whisper the answers to him, all the FM lacked was a target on his back.
The Unionists simply couldn't miss.
So for 30 minutes Mr Salmond was thrown down every circle of political hell until eventually he hit rock bottom - being lectured by Ken Macintosh.
Another_richard - Why don't you stand as the South Yorkshire Police & Crime Commissioner.
I assume you won't be voting UKIP in that election, as they've chosen as candidate a former South Yorkshire copper who occasionally worked in Rotherham?
I prefer to do things I am good at and I suspect that doesn't include being a PCC.
I did hear the UKIP candidate on the radio a few days ago.
He sounded deeply unimpressive.
I really don't think UKIP would be any more effective in government than the other parties but as they're not going to be in government then they remain a free anti-establishment protest vote.
For the SYPCC, as UKIP provide the only realistic alternative to beating Labour they will unenthusiastically get my vote. I know Labour will be crap but I don't know if UKIP will be if they win. So I'll hope to be pleasantly surprised.
Might I ask who you will vote for Eagles ? As I remember its a STV election so you can vote Con then UKIP.
I haven't made up my mind yet.
I'm on holiday on Election Day. So I might officially abstain and not get a postal ballot.
I don't believe it! About you not voting: I mean where is your fervor?
Looking at the Tory candidate, he's went to the same prep school as I, and he's also worked for the NHS, and given that the Tory party is the the party of the NHS, I shall vote Tory.
I'm not sure who to give my second vote to, I'm annoyed by UKIP and Labour equally.
For all you election gurus, if I put an X against the Tory candidate, and write bastards next to the Labour and UKIP candidates, will my vote still be counted?
I am not sure whether it was an attempt to play the race card or just a candidate out of her depth in an interview - hard to tell without context
But will be interesting to see if it gets traction
Ah, the lady who claims to work for the NHS, but is really a union pilgrim working within the NHS.
You clearly have every CCHQ file at your disposal.Same old Tories.
It was on Guido a week or so ago.
Shortly BJO will be along to tell us that NHS finances are creaking and patients will suffer soon. But yet she is being paid handsomely not to treat anyone but cuddle the workers.
I find rap to be an odd medium - some of it can be very very funny and satirical. Most of it is indeed - gangstas, guns, swearing and absurdly macho. Very tedious.
I've become rather fond of an odd kluge of sweary n-rap crossed with blue grass. It's rather catchy and funny. Ed Sheeran does some rather clever music industry pee-taking rap as well. He's a very talented chappy.
That Gene Hunt schitck was most amusing - I tripped across it just this morning and it did make me smile.
@Cameron Conference Rap - where is it written that this is bad for Cameron?
Most raps include shooting, gansta slang and swearing. There's a risk that (like the Gene Hunt attack) it makes him look quite cool, and crowds out Ed.
made my first by- election bet -UKIP to get 40-50% in Clacton. I think the Reckless defection will stop some tories voting UKIP that might have otherwise here . So think UKIP will not get as much as initially though
state - yes, I think this is probably the value bet at 9/4 with Ladbrokes. What will also undoubtedly help the Tories, perhaps quite significantly, is Dave's quite brilliant Conference speech. Good luck with your virgin bet!
Comments
I'm a private sector worker, a homeowner and I have decades until I get a pension, not that any of that is your business.
Saw YG last night
I expect we'll get the Ipsos-Mori next week, and the ICM for the Guardian a week on Monday.
Let's see what those phone polls show.
Have some people forgotten the basic maxim - polls during conference season are skewed.
Both those papers wanted Scotland to remain in the Union.
and the majority on benefits in the form of pensions back the Tories?
That should be an amusing poll.
Populus Lab 38, Con 33
Yougov Con 35, Lab 34
Com Res Lab 35, Con 29,
Ahcroft Lab 32, Con 32,
Opinium Lab 34, Con 32,
Averaging Lab 34.6%, Con 32.2%.
Anyone else noticed that today's YouGov shows 23% of 2010 LDs said CON (with 29% LAB, 9% UKIP)?
Compare to 25 Sep YouGov which had a 6 point LAB lead. There only 8% 2010 LDs said CON, 35% LAB, 14% UKIP.
Enough to (partially) explain the swing?
If this 23% is sustained (and it's not reflected in Populus, which has only 8% of 2010 LDs saying CON, and on a random look through past YouGovs I can't find a comparable figure), it would give the Tories a comparable "electoral crutch" to Labour. Suspect it won't be though and that 23% will be a blip.
I mean it's a lot worse than G4 VIN if you are called Gavin but personalised plates that try to approximate names, etc are all pretty naff.
My favorite story (no idea if it is urban myth) is that the Queen owns all the licence plates beginning XHM and gives them out to her friends as appropriate (Constantine of Greece is is XHM1, Giray Khan of Crimea is XHM2, etc etc). I was told it by Giray Khan's grandson, but he may have been making it up...
Oh...
(It is the fault of the indyref)
That's half the electorate, right there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7k0ChgK4jYw#t=89
These are the nice ones we're getting Saudi Arabia to train 15,000 more of.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/cultural-policies-lead-irvine-welsh-to-back-snp-1.827460
I'm still waiting for an apology.
I'm looking at September's Vote Intention from their Political Monitor. Table 4, Page 4.
The September ICM is the only poll since Populus in July that had UKIP on less than 10%, and the last three ICM polls have been distinctive in giving the Lib Dems a poll share lead over UKIP. The June ICM, the first following UKIPs triumph at the European elections in May, had UKIP leading the Lib Dems by 16% - 10%.
It seems sensible to anticipate a huge swing to UKIP in the October ICM poll.
Then it was 16% of 2010 Lib Dems who expressed a voting intention now planned to vote Tory (29% said they were voting Lab)
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/ey50z9xm3y/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-140814.pdf
I think you nationalist posters got plenty right, and would like to know how many Westminster seats you think the SNP might win for 2015.
You already spam us with your EICIPM posts already which don't tell anyone anything. We all know applying poll numbers showing a Labour lead with UNS to electoral calculus show that outcome.
So our echo chamber was a damn sight more accurate than the Nat echo chamber.
Keep listening to us, you Nats might learn something.
Sorry to put the boot in, but even Rogerdamus, got the referendum result spot on.
"I think I'll go on holiday throughout May next year!"
" Alex Salmond was humiliated after his predictions of increasing the number of SNP MPs from seven to 20 fell apart, with the Nationalists winning only six seats." 2010
I mean it's a lot worse than G4 VIN if you are called Gavin but personalised plates that try to approximate names, etc are all pretty naff.
I told you to wait till Monday.
I don't remember 'you' making any predictions, but your use of the PB 'we' is very telling.
You have to like the chutzpah...
'But after mouthing off about the Labour Party, it’s only fair that I make a personal declaration as to where my own politics lie today. Like most people, I’ve moved away from my tartan Tory perception of the SNP and accept it as a benign, bourgeois party of the centre-left. Yes, it’s nakedly opportunist, but that factor certainly doesn’t distinguish it in modern politics, and its fairly narrow goal of Scottish independence makes it harder for it to sell out. Nonetheless, its not my party, I’ve never voted for them and would find it hard to do so, for the same reasons I can no longer vote Labour and will obviously never vote Conservative – it’s not in my internationalist DNA. Having long given up on parties, I’m stuck with having my political aspirations for these islands placed squarely in the hands of a new, broadly-based, grass roots campaign led by a different generation, and I wouldn’t want it any other way. I’m now a dedicated ‘phase three’ yes man: let’s get it sorted out. But I want as many of my old buddies, and as many real Labour people on that journey as possible, and for bigger reasons than to deliver a yes vote for social progress on the 18th. That, as I’ve said, is only part of the process. I want them onside, because the core values that they believe in; fairness, justice and democracy, are the only values that a new Scotland -and a new England- can be constructed on.'
http://tinyurl.com/londfkm
Double Elephant is my personal favourite
Part of my degree was in paper conservation - yeah, I know...
I stopped interchanging Foolscap with A4 when I was taken literally by someone who knew his stationery onions and ended up with several reams the wrong size/hung over the edge of my A4 folder. A bit like a yard when you want a metre for a good reason. Less of the "older people" please!
I still refer to A4 as foolscap sometimes...
http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbindycomp/results.php?s_Name=tse&button=Search
http://comresupdates.eu.com/DCJ-2UVSL-F21LMD8E11/cr.aspx
It will be interesting to see if the thin crust of H&M tory voters vote tactically against labour.
As Richard Sharpe put it "When's the best time to kick a man, Patrick? " "When he's down, sir."
@Plato and others. Thanks. It's Mr Penguin btw...!
Rochester & Strood is another matter... *sharpens knives* As Richard Sharpe put it "When's the best time to kick a man, Patrick? " "When he's down, sir."
Is it your time of the month, perhaps?
I also like the quote from Harry Flashman: 'Never kick a man when he's down - he may get up!'.
TGOHF will remember this. :-)
Most raps include shooting, gansta slang and swearing. There's a risk that (like the Gene Hunt attack) it makes him look quite cool, and crowds out Ed.
The Tories promise on Human Rights are not worth the breath of an utterance!
I'll be on holiday next week. I'm trying to get to either Clacton or Rochester over the weekend.
I did hear the UKIP candidate on the radio a few days ago.
He sounded deeply unimpressive.
I really don't think UKIP would be any more effective in government than the other parties but as they're not going to be in government then they remain a free anti-establishment protest vote.
For the SYPCC, as UKIP provide the only realistic alternative to beating Labour they will unenthusiastically get my vote. I know Labour will be crap but I don't know if UKIP will be if they win. So I'll hope to be pleasantly surprised.
Might I ask who you will vote for Eagles ? As I remember its a STV election so you can vote Con then UKIP.
Its not clear if this is an expensive all postal-vote, or a caucus.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11137231/David-Cameron-plans-peoples-candidate-in-Rochester-and-Strood-to-stop-Ukip-in-its-tracks.html
But has the Conservative party any criticism of Labour's unpleasant idea ?
Good they've had their comeuppance – looking at them, I'd not buy a newspaper from them.
http://news.sky.com/story/1346782/bogus-bomb-detector-scam-pair-sentenced
It was the plods.
I'm just one of those people who expect others to do what they promise to do.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/02/moazzam-begg-contact-mi5-agents-papers
The case casts a sidelight on our shifting views on Syria - "We support the opposition, by all means go and help them" to "Er, well, maybe we don't support them quite so much, so you're under arrest".
I'm on holiday on Election Day. So I might officially abstain and not get a postal ballot.
Good luck with your virgin bet!
http://order-order.com/2014/10/03/labour-play-the-by-election-race-card-heywood-and-middleton-candidate-liz-mcinnes-white-is-ordinary/
I am not sure whether it was an attempt to play the race card or just a candidate out of her depth in an interview - hard to tell without context
But will be interesting to see if it gets traction
Liberal Democrats: who they?
He has made a fortune by writing the same book 10 times - more power to him for the hustle.
The Nat campaign is similar to the Green/AGW - is has morphed into a far left battle on "social justice" - what they want is communism and to obtain what others have by statist means and they have used the SNP and "Yes" as a cover to get it.
And Cam wants to ring fence NHS spending ??
That scam has to end once and for all.
TGOHF will remember this. :-)
I'm not sure who to give my second vote to, I'm annoyed by UKIP and Labour equally.
For all you election gurus, if I put an X against the Tory candidate, and write bastards next to the Labour and UKIP candidates, will my vote still be counted?
Shortly BJO will be along to tell us that NHS finances are creaking and patients will suffer soon. But yet she is being paid handsomely not to treat anyone but cuddle the workers.
I've become rather fond of an odd kluge of sweary n-rap crossed with blue grass. It's rather catchy and funny. Ed Sheeran does some rather clever music industry pee-taking rap as well. He's a very talented chappy.
That Gene Hunt schitck was most amusing - I tripped across it just this morning and it did make me smile.