The Tories really are up a certain creek without a paddle or canoe – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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My daughter tells me no one talks about Taylor Swift anymorebondegezou said:So what do people think of the new Taylor Swift album?
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Anglo-Persian Oil Company has a nice ringMalmesbury said:
I just like to follow through ideas.Benpointer said:
@Leon, stop hacking into @Malmesbury's account.Malmesbury said:
Since hostile takeovers of other nation states is apparently A-OK, what about war with Germany?DavidL said:
Well, in fairness, what are the chances of another European land war? That would be absurd.CarlottaVance said:BREAKING:
Germany will significantly cut down the expansion of the army due to “high inflation and the expensive dollar”
Several projects will be cancelled or downsized, including:
Puma IFVs
Self-propelled howitzers
Corvettes
Frigates
Eurofighters
potentially F-35s (downsized)
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1583778006803234816
EDIT: We could flog the Eastern half to Putin, in return for free gas.
For example, the other day, people were all fired up for nationalising the evil natural gas profiteers. I was entirely up for this. Let's nationalise the entire Arabian peninsular again. We would need a company to do the actual oil and gas stuff, though.
Empire Petroleum?
UK Petroleum??
.....
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Boris has no record of standing and losing gracefully. Not standing and still losing disgracefully is more likely. Losing the Telegraph and Mail is a blow to his chances.wooliedyed said:I think we will see a Sunday piece on 'why im not running for the sake of unity and the party' by one St Boris of Uxbridge
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The Lab memebership got tired of being in opposition, especially against the repulsive face of Boris.Freggles said:This whole thing shows how Starmer has been underrated. Taking control of a party from an opposing faction, where the MPs are mostly pointing one way and the members mostly another, is quite a feat. The Tories don't appear at the moment to have someone capable of doing the same.
Cons are in power, that's the big difference I think.0 -
Obvs more interested in Aldi than HMNB Devonport, or perhaps parking their flying saucer so they could get a nice GWR Pullman coach dinner on the way to visit you in Camden.Leon said:The aliens are also pursuing one particular guy around the backstreets of Plymouth. And Plymouth, of course, has nuclear submarines. Say no more
“A Plymouth man has described the "freaky" moment he saw aliens following him down Mutley Plain. The man, who has asked to remain anonymous, says the incident left him so scared he ran all the way home.
The anonymous man says his first encounter with possible extra-terrestrial life came in July of this year. Since then he says they have appeared quite regularly to him and his friends.
Describing his encounter, he said: "I've seen it loads of times and it actually followed me home. I know that sounds absolutely mental but I was the Hoe and it followed me all the way up North Hill, along Mutley, and to Peverell.”
https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/plymouth-news/plymouth-man-legged-home-after-77264320 -
New declarations now reduced to a trickle.
Change in named supporters since overnight now:
Rishi +21
Boris +41 -
I'm starting to think Boris might not run. Bit of a grim book on this but considering I started by laying both rishi and Boris and backing Starmer precontest it's better than it could have been3
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No one has the attention span to listen to an album either. Just 20 second Tik Tok clips.StillWaters said:
My daughter tells me no one talks about Taylor Swift anymorebondegezou said:So what do people think of the new Taylor Swift album?
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It is not looking good so far. But it is a long way to the end.Benpointer said:From a quick look at the Premiership table, it seems to me that the Midlands is going to be relegated this season.
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If Boris doesn't run he's salted th earth for Sunak.0
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Note 40% of Conservative members who voted for Truss wanted MPs to support a single unity candidate without a membership vote if Truss went as well as an overwhelming 88% of Conservative members who voted for Sunak on that pollMikeL said:Haven't seen much on here about the YouGov poll of Con Party members where:
45% of members supported having a members vote on the Final 2
50% of members opposed having a members vote on the Final 2
5% Don't Know
Now in theory the 50% who oppose a members vote should all back whoever comes first in MPs vote.
Of course it won't work like that but if even 20% feel that way and vote for the MPs winner irrespective of their own preference then Sunak would surely be guaranteed to win.
(Boris would need to win those voting with their own view 50/30)
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/s6ccng5vvk/Internal_ConMembers_Oct2022_w.pdf0 -
Like WSC tried to craft the line, that Dardanelles offensive would have worked IF the admirals and generals had really wanted it to?kinabalu said:Is BoJo trying to craft a "could have if I'd really wanted to" plotline?
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What is the point of being shy if one has pinned their hopes on becoming the next Secretary of State for Wales? It has to be "me, me, I voted for you Boris, me!"MarqueeMark said:
The concept of "shy Boris backers" seems to go against the evidence of his cheerleaders to date.rottenborough said:Matt Chorley
@MattChorley
·
1h
% of the public declarations so far:
Sunak 60%
Johnson 28%
Mordaunt 12%
So of the 142 left to declare, Johnson needs 35% of them to back him *just* to get on the ballot0 -
I will always my remember my parents’ local paper having story about a man who had seen a UFO. Or rather, he had seen “lights in the sky” around midnight on New Year’s Eve….Leon said:The aliens are also pursuing one particular guy around the backstreets of Plymouth. And Plymouth, of course, has nuclear submarines. Say no more
“A Plymouth man has described the "freaky" moment he saw aliens following him down Mutley Plain. The man, who has asked to remain anonymous, says the incident left him so scared he ran all the way home.
The anonymous man says his first encounter with possible extra-terrestrial life came in July of this year. Since then he says they have appeared quite regularly to him and his friends.
Describing his encounter, he said: "I've seen it loads of times and it actually followed me home. I know that sounds absolutely mental but I was the Hoe and it followed me all the way up North Hill, along Mutley, and to Peverell.”
https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/plymouth-news/plymouth-man-legged-home-after-7726432
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Good thread on why Boris might yet win. Basically: the Tories are almost certainly fucked, they need a miracle. Boris is the kind of guy who will probably implode but might just provide a miracle. Sunak won’t do either of these things
“If I was a Conservative MP (which, thank the Lord I'm not, Sir) I would be tempted to vote for Boris Johnson.
I wouldn't do it because I thought he had "changed", or because I thought he was a great electoral asset - because I'm not mad…”
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1583811111593611264?s=46&t=rNw_mLeyC2GOdxfHP8RVGQ
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If Boris did withdraw tomorrow, could Badenoch make a late charge?
Time would be very limited but I guess it would be possible for her to give it a go.0 -
Hates Rishi but can't win himself; it's the obvious play. Have the members kick Rishi twice.Andy_JS said:
If he comes out in support of Penny Mordaunt the contest could get interesting.wooliedyed said:I think we will see a Sunday piece on 'why im not running for the sake of unity and the party' by one St Boris of Uxbridge
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Opposition concentrates the mind. As Ken Livingstone once said, if Tony Blair told us to sit naked in Trafalgar Square, we'd do it.Alistair said:
The Lab memebership got tired of being in opposition, especially against the repulsive face of Boris.Freggles said:This whole thing shows how Starmer has been underrated. Taking control of a party from an opposing faction, where the MPs are mostly pointing one way and the members mostly another, is quite a feat. The Tories don't appear at the moment to have someone capable of doing the same.
Cons are in power, that's the big difference I think.0 -
Eden was 70 years before his time?StillWaters said:
Anglo-Persian Oil Company has a nice ringMalmesbury said:
I just like to follow through ideas.Benpointer said:
@Leon, stop hacking into @Malmesbury's account.Malmesbury said:
Since hostile takeovers of other nation states is apparently A-OK, what about war with Germany?DavidL said:
Well, in fairness, what are the chances of another European land war? That would be absurd.CarlottaVance said:BREAKING:
Germany will significantly cut down the expansion of the army due to “high inflation and the expensive dollar”
Several projects will be cancelled or downsized, including:
Puma IFVs
Self-propelled howitzers
Corvettes
Frigates
Eurofighters
potentially F-35s (downsized)
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1583778006803234816
EDIT: We could flog the Eastern half to Putin, in return for free gas.
For example, the other day, people were all fired up for nationalising the evil natural gas profiteers. I was entirely up for this. Let's nationalise the entire Arabian peninsular again. We would need a company to do the actual oil and gas stuff, though.
Empire Petroleum?
UK Petroleum??
.....
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Excelent Carnyx, thanksCarnyx said:O/T but specially for @Malmesbury and @JosiasJessop in the brief moments of quiescence between the excitements of the cricket - the latest tanknology, this time Which Tank? 2023.
https://www.tanknology.co.uk/post/tanks-of-2022-old-dogs-new-tricks0 -
Given how much people pay to hear him talk absolute bollocks money isn't the issueTimS said:
If he doesn’t run he’s just blown a lot of money on a last minute flight home from the Caribbean and cut short a family holiday for nought.Pulpstar said:If Boris doesn't run he's salted th earth for Sunak.
Reminding MPs of the old Boris flame0 -
Just before Rishi takes charge, that's important to him0
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Not sure why Sunak is waiting . Won’t it come to the point where people start getting irritated that he’s not announced . And if this non announcing continues into Sunday that would leave little time for other candidates to come forward .
Clearly Bozo hasn’t announced as he doesn’t have the numbers yet , regardless of the garbage spewing from his team .0 -
No, Boris can do a David Davis 2003 and say he does not have the support he needs amongst MPs so is backing a Howard/Sunak coronation selflessly for the good of the party, blah blah to avoid further division after the removal of IDS/Truss.TimS said:
If he doesn’t run he’s just blown a lot of money on a last minute flight home from the Caribbean and cut short a family holiday for nought.Pulpstar said:If Boris doesn't run he's salted th earth for Sunak.
Knowing full well they would run for the leadership again if Howard/Sunak lost the next general election (and assuming Boris holds Uxbridge or gets a safe seat)2 -
How so?Pulpstar said:If Boris doesn't run he's salted th earth for Sunak.
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Penny is worth a tenner at 46s on this basis - just in case.MarqueeMark said:
Hates Rishi but can't win himself; it's the obvious play. Have the members kick Rishi twice.Andy_JS said:
If he comes out in support of Penny Mordaunt the contest could get interesting.wooliedyed said:I think we will see a Sunday piece on 'why im not running for the sake of unity and the party' by one St Boris of Uxbridge
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Dunno. He gets to look like a hero and regain some reputation. Also he’s an ocean away from his wife and there’s some nice looking ladies over here….TimS said:
If he doesn’t run he’s just blown a lot of money on a last minute flight home from the Caribbean and cut short a family holiday for nought.Pulpstar said:If Boris doesn't run he's salted th earth for Sunak.
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Far too late.MikeL said:If Boris did withdraw tomorrow, could Badenoch make a late charge?
Time would be very limited but I guess it would be possible for her to give it a go.0 -
Rumours that Kemi Badenoch may support Rishi Sunak.1
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I'm in a bad old spot. Very inadvisable lay of Rishi at much longer odds sunk me.Pulpstar said:I'm starting to think Boris might not run. Bit of a grim book on this but considering I started by laying both rishi and Boris and backing Starmer precontest it's better than it could have been
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She's about to back Rishi apparently...MikeL said:If Boris did withdraw tomorrow, could Badenoch make a late charge?
Time would be very limited but I guess it would be possible for her to give it a go.0 -
For what it's worth, if the Wiki list of ERG members is accurate according to Guido's list so far ERG members have declared for:FrankBooth said:How many of the ERG have declared?
Sunak 11
Johnson 8
Mordaunt 2
30 of the 51 (but one of those is Mordaunt).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Research_Group0 -
I wonder if they've done a deal over giving her a big job in the cabinet.Andy_JS said:Rumours that Kemi Badenoch may support Rishi Sunak.
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Graham Stuart (who attends Cabinet) just gone for Rishi.
Rishi now has three declared who attend Cabinet - Philp, Tugendhat and Stuart - but no full Cabinet members.1 -
Looking at the list of Boris backers there's only about 35 of them (max) who I could see being highly problematic for Sunak.
Given there are 357 Tory MPs currently taking the whip that should be manageable for him.0 -
Her whole candidature last time was in support of Sunak, so that's hardly shocking. A Goveite snake.nico679 said:
Allegedly she’s going to support Sunak .MikeL said:If Boris did withdraw tomorrow, could Badenoch make a late charge?
Time would be very limited but I guess it would be possible for her to give it a go.0 -
Shirley you mean That. Is. A. Disgrace.Tres said:Mason is following the Kuenssberg approach in blindly regurgitating any lines he gets from Johnson rampers. That is a disgrace.
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They're waiting for Sue Gray's report.FrankBooth said:How many of the ERG have declared?
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Presumably his problem is that, if he runs and gets it, then he is not going to have a working majority because of the amount of dissent amongst MPs. He will then have to call a general election, which the Conservatives will probably lose. Is this why he may not stand?1
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This is just your Liz Truss thinking reheated.Leon said:Good thread on why Boris might yet win. Basically: the Tories are almost certainly fucked, they need a miracle. Boris is the kind of guy who will probably implode but might just provide a miracle. Sunak won’t do either of these things
“If I was a Conservative MP (which, thank the Lord I'm not, Sir) I would be tempted to vote for Boris Johnson.
I wouldn't do it because I thought he had "changed", or because I thought he was a great electoral asset - because I'm not mad…”
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1583811111593611264?s=46&t=rNw_mLeyC2GOdxfHP8RVGQ1 -
O/T
Major change in the 538 senate forecast: GOP now ahead with 50.1 seats predicted.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/1 -
She's so 1989StillWaters said:
My daughter tells me no one talks about Taylor Swift anymorebondegezou said:So what do people think of the new Taylor Swift album?
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Penny has her first new supporter of the day - Tracey Crouch.1
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If you do end up losing then I'm really sorry.Alistair said:
I'm in a bad old spot. Very inadvisable lay of Rishi at much longer odds sunk me.Pulpstar said:I'm starting to think Boris might not run. Bit of a grim book on this but considering I started by laying both rishi and Boris and backing Starmer precontest it's better than it could have been
I try to follow a rule to bet when the general public are involved but to be more wary when voting is in the hands of an esoteric, few. They are more unpredictable.
I didn't quite believe that the party would be stupid enough to re-select Boris and I still don't. But it may have come close to the chasm.0 -
I think it's basically too soon for the great comeback narrative. He needs the divisiveness of this period to subside and for people to perceive that he got the big calls right (including Brexit), and this isn't the case at the moment.darkage said:Presumably his problem is that, if he runs and gets it, then he is not going to have a working majority because of the amount of dissent amongst MPs. He will then have to call a general election, which the Conservatives will probably lose. Is this why he may not stand?
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What's this "when needed" shit? The purpose of the GAF is to defend the territorial integrity of Germany and meet its NATO commitments which it does. It doesn't exist to attempt to settle intractable slavic border disputes 2,000km to the east.biggles said:
Germany, of all countries, is starting with three working typhoons and six operational tanks. As a major economy and significant world power, they ought to pull their weight when needed and I had hoped Ukraine had given them a reason to wake up (as it hopefully might for us as bits of our capability are pretty thin).Dura_Ace said:
Well, if the Russians can't get to the Dniepr they certainly can't get to the Elbe so what's the justification for increased German defence spending over more socially useful government activity?biggles said:
Sigh…CarlottaVance said:BREAKING:
Germany will significantly cut down the expansion of the army due to “high inflation and the expensive dollar”
Several projects will be cancelled or downsized, including:
Puma IFVs
Self-propelled howitzers
Corvettes
Frigates
Eurofighters
potentially F-35s (downsized)
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/15837780068032348161 -
Thoughts and prayers for Sir Robert Buckland who ratted on Rishi mid campaign. But for Wales?MikeL said:Graham Stuart (who attends Cabinet) just gone for Rishi.
Rishi now has three declared who attend Cabinet - Philp, Tugendhat and Stuart - but no full Cabinet members.
Was of course fired by Johnson. So will he re-rat this time? A sure cert for the backbenches.1 -
Tell It To My Heart is an excellent song. From 1988 IIRC.rcs1000 said:
She's so 1989StillWaters said:
My daughter tells me no one talks about Taylor Swift anymorebondegezou said:So what do people think of the new Taylor Swift album?
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My reading of the situation is that Johnson isn't getting anything like the support (Charles Moore, Alison Pearson, Lord Frost, Stephen Barclay etc) that you'd expect him to get - on paper.Benpointer said:
For what it's worth, if the Wiki list of ERG members is accurate according to Guido's list so far ERG members have declared for:FrankBooth said:How many of the ERG have declared?
Sunak 11
Johnson 8
Mordaunt 2
30 of the 51 (but one of those is Mordaunt).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Research_Group
I don't think he wins even if he gets to the members now.2 -
can he be just invited by a local association to be the candidate for a safe seat or does it need some endorsement by Head Office?HYUFD said:
No, Boris can do a David Davis 2003 and say he does not have the support he needs amongst MPs so is backing a Howard/Sunak coronation selflessly for the good of the party, blah blah to avoid further division after the removal of IDS/Truss.TimS said:
If he doesn’t run he’s just blown a lot of money on a last minute flight home from the Caribbean and cut short a family holiday for nought.Pulpstar said:If Boris doesn't run he's salted th earth for Sunak.
Knowing full well they would run for the leadership again if Howard/Sunak lost the next general election (and assuming Boris holds Uxbridge or gets a safe seat)0 -
That's the wrong Taylor.Andy_JS said:
Tell It To My Heart is an excellent song. From 1988 IIRC.rcs1000 said:
She's so 1989StillWaters said:
My daughter tells me no one talks about Taylor Swift anymorebondegezou said:So what do people think of the new Taylor Swift album?
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Can you cut your losses? How bad is your book?Alistair said:
I'm in a bad old spot. Very inadvisable lay of Rishi at much longer odds sunk me.Pulpstar said:I'm starting to think Boris might not run. Bit of a grim book on this but considering I started by laying both rishi and Boris and backing Starmer precontest it's better than it could have been
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But, Rishi Sunak will be far more magnanimous to his defeated opponents than they'd be to him.JohnO said:
Thoughts and prayers for Sir Robert Buckland who ratted on Rishi mid campaign. But for Wales?MikeL said:Graham Stuart (who attends Cabinet) just gone for Rishi.
Rishi now has three declared who attend Cabinet - Philp, Tugendhat and Stuart - but no full Cabinet members.
Was of course fired by Johnson. So will he re-rat this time? A sure cert for the backbenches.
I expect him to give posts to all wings of the party, even the barking, and - for the sake of unity - he's right to do so.3 -
It’s not my thinking at all. It’s someone trying to get inside the thoughts of sane Tory MPs, and trying to deduce why they might go for Boris, despite all the past evidence and the inevitable issues aheadAlistair said:
This is just your Liz Truss thinking reheated.Leon said:Good thread on why Boris might yet win. Basically: the Tories are almost certainly fucked, they need a miracle. Boris is the kind of guy who will probably implode but might just provide a miracle. Sunak won’t do either of these things
“If I was a Conservative MP (which, thank the Lord I'm not, Sir) I would be tempted to vote for Boris Johnson.
I wouldn't do it because I thought he had "changed", or because I thought he was a great electoral asset - because I'm not mad…”
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1583811111593611264?s=46&t=rNw_mLeyC2GOdxfHP8RVGQ
Makes sense to me
Personally, I reckon Sunak has got this. The country yearns for an end to the panto and I suspect Tory members do too. So even if boris made the run off he’d lose0 -
Wales is worth a mass?JohnO said:
Thoughts and prayers for Sir Robert Buckland who ratted on Rishi mid campaign. But for Wales?MikeL said:Graham Stuart (who attends Cabinet) just gone for Rishi.
Rishi now has three declared who attend Cabinet - Philp, Tugendhat and Stuart - but no full Cabinet members.
Was of course fired by Johnson. So will he re-rat this time? A sure cert for the backbenches.0 -
I suspect thats the feedback Boris is getting. 'Sit this one out, biggus'Leon said:
It’s not my thinking at all. It’s someone trying to get inside the thoughts of sane Tory MPs, and trying to deduce why they might go for Boris, despite all the past evidence and the inevitable issues aheadAlistair said:
This is just your Liz Truss thinking reheated.Leon said:Good thread on why Boris might yet win. Basically: the Tories are almost certainly fucked, they need a miracle. Boris is the kind of guy who will probably implode but might just provide a miracle. Sunak won’t do either of these things
“If I was a Conservative MP (which, thank the Lord I'm not, Sir) I would be tempted to vote for Boris Johnson.
I wouldn't do it because I thought he had "changed", or because I thought he was a great electoral asset - because I'm not mad…”
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1583811111593611264?s=46&t=rNw_mLeyC2GOdxfHP8RVGQ
Makes sense to me
Personally, I reckon Sunak has got this. The country yearns for an end to the panto and I suspect Tory members do too. So even if boris made the run off he’d lose3 -
Which is what Charles Moore wrote in this morning's Daily Telegraph. And Moore is Boris' mentor.wooliedyed said:
I suspect thats the feedback Boris is getting. 'Sit this one out, biggus'Leon said:
It’s not my thinking at all. It’s someone trying to get inside the thoughts of sane Tory MPs, and trying to deduce why they might go for Boris, despite all the past evidence and the inevitable issues aheadAlistair said:
This is just your Liz Truss thinking reheated.Leon said:Good thread on why Boris might yet win. Basically: the Tories are almost certainly fucked, they need a miracle. Boris is the kind of guy who will probably implode but might just provide a miracle. Sunak won’t do either of these things
“If I was a Conservative MP (which, thank the Lord I'm not, Sir) I would be tempted to vote for Boris Johnson.
I wouldn't do it because I thought he had "changed", or because I thought he was a great electoral asset - because I'm not mad…”
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1583811111593611264?s=46&t=rNw_mLeyC2GOdxfHP8RVGQ
Makes sense to me
Personally, I reckon Sunak has got this. The country yearns for an end to the panto and I suspect Tory members do too. So even if boris made the run off he’d lose
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/21/boris-remains-remarkable-politician-should-sit-one/
£££1 -
Yes. Boris is risky at a time of worldwide maximum risk. He’s funny and cheering but we no longer desire to be amused, or cheered, we want to avoid world war and make it through winter and not lose our homes due to soaring mortgage rateswooliedyed said:
I suspect thats the feedback Boris is getting. 'Sit this one out, biggus'Leon said:
It’s not my thinking at all. It’s someone trying to get inside the thoughts of sane Tory MPs, and trying to deduce why they might go for Boris, despite all the past evidence and the inevitable issues aheadAlistair said:
This is just your Liz Truss thinking reheated.Leon said:Good thread on why Boris might yet win. Basically: the Tories are almost certainly fucked, they need a miracle. Boris is the kind of guy who will probably implode but might just provide a miracle. Sunak won’t do either of these things
“If I was a Conservative MP (which, thank the Lord I'm not, Sir) I would be tempted to vote for Boris Johnson.
I wouldn't do it because I thought he had "changed", or because I thought he was a great electoral asset - because I'm not mad…”
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1583811111593611264?s=46&t=rNw_mLeyC2GOdxfHP8RVGQ
Makes sense to me
Personally, I reckon Sunak has got this. The country yearns for an end to the panto and I suspect Tory members do too. So even if boris made the run off he’d lose1 -
All down to Nevada, where the GOP are ahead by 0.6% on average and Georgia where the Democrats are ahead by 1.2% on average, otherwise it is 50 50 still and Harris again has casting voteAndy_JS said:O/T
Major change in the 538 senate forecast: GOP now ahead with 50.1 seats predicted.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/0 -
It makes sense on a few levels. That said time passes and people move on. In 2025 after an election defeat will members reliably back him, or will they look for a new generation? More scandals may come to light in the meantime too. We’re seeing that time passing dynamic with Trump too.wooliedyed said:
I suspect thats the feedback Boris is getting. 'Sit this one out, biggus'Leon said:
It’s not my thinking at all. It’s someone trying to get inside the thoughts of sane Tory MPs, and trying to deduce why they might go for Boris, despite all the past evidence and the inevitable issues aheadAlistair said:
This is just your Liz Truss thinking reheated.Leon said:Good thread on why Boris might yet win. Basically: the Tories are almost certainly fucked, they need a miracle. Boris is the kind of guy who will probably implode but might just provide a miracle. Sunak won’t do either of these things
“If I was a Conservative MP (which, thank the Lord I'm not, Sir) I would be tempted to vote for Boris Johnson.
I wouldn't do it because I thought he had "changed", or because I thought he was a great electoral asset - because I'm not mad…”
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1583811111593611264?s=46&t=rNw_mLeyC2GOdxfHP8RVGQ
Makes sense to me
Personally, I reckon Sunak has got this. The country yearns for an end to the panto and I suspect Tory members do too. So even if boris made the run off he’d lose
If Sunak leads the Tories to a suitably narrow defeat at the next election and with reasonable personal ratings the best option for them might even be to keep him as leader.1 -
Sunak leads them to a respectable defeat. Boris has a 70% chance of leading the Tories to a total wipeout, a 20% chance of a respectable defeat, or a 10% chance of a miracle recovery.Leon said:
It’s not my thinking at all. It’s someone trying to get inside the thoughts of sane Tory MPs, and trying to deduce why they might go for Boris, despite all the past evidence and the inevitable issues aheadAlistair said:
This is just your Liz Truss thinking reheated.Leon said:Good thread on why Boris might yet win. Basically: the Tories are almost certainly fucked, they need a miracle. Boris is the kind of guy who will probably implode but might just provide a miracle. Sunak won’t do either of these things
“If I was a Conservative MP (which, thank the Lord I'm not, Sir) I would be tempted to vote for Boris Johnson.
I wouldn't do it because I thought he had "changed", or because I thought he was a great electoral asset - because I'm not mad…”
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1583811111593611264?s=46&t=rNw_mLeyC2GOdxfHP8RVGQ
Makes sense to me
Personally, I reckon Sunak has got this. The country yearns for an end to the panto and I suspect Tory members do too. So even if boris made the run off he’d lose
From a completely selfish point of view, i.e. that of a typical Conservative MP, you want to be asking who is most likely to save your seat and therefore your job. If you're in a tight marginal, you need the 1-in-10 shot Boris miracle. If you're in a more comfortable seat, you opt for Sunak in the hope that he will be able to save it. If you're in a safe seat, you vote for whoever knowing you've got a job for life. Isn't democracy wonderful!1 -
Yes, its time for the driest of the dry not mad dog maniaLeon said:
Yes. Boris is risky at a time of worldwide maximum risk. He’s funny and cheering but we no longer desire to be amused, or cheered, we want to avoid world war and make it through winter and not lose our homes due to soaring mortgage rateswooliedyed said:
I suspect thats the feedback Boris is getting. 'Sit this one out, biggus'Leon said:
It’s not my thinking at all. It’s someone trying to get inside the thoughts of sane Tory MPs, and trying to deduce why they might go for Boris, despite all the past evidence and the inevitable issues aheadAlistair said:
This is just your Liz Truss thinking reheated.Leon said:Good thread on why Boris might yet win. Basically: the Tories are almost certainly fucked, they need a miracle. Boris is the kind of guy who will probably implode but might just provide a miracle. Sunak won’t do either of these things
“If I was a Conservative MP (which, thank the Lord I'm not, Sir) I would be tempted to vote for Boris Johnson.
I wouldn't do it because I thought he had "changed", or because I thought he was a great electoral asset - because I'm not mad…”
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1583811111593611264?s=46&t=rNw_mLeyC2GOdxfHP8RVGQ
Makes sense to me
Personally, I reckon Sunak has got this. The country yearns for an end to the panto and I suspect Tory members do too. So even if boris made the run off he’d lose
Its Sunak, Hunt, Starmer all the way down1 -
This is the key point, surely.MikeL said:New declarations now reduced to a trickle.
Change in named supporters since overnight now:
Rishi +21
Boris +41 -
He's nauseating.Leon said:
Yes. Boris is risky at a time of worldwide maximum risk. He’s funny and cheering ...wooliedyed said:
I suspect thats the feedback Boris is getting. 'Sit this one out, biggus'Leon said:
It’s not my thinking at all. It’s someone trying to get inside the thoughts of sane Tory MPs, and trying to deduce why they might go for Boris, despite all the past evidence and the inevitable issues aheadAlistair said:
This is just your Liz Truss thinking reheated.Leon said:Good thread on why Boris might yet win. Basically: the Tories are almost certainly fucked, they need a miracle. Boris is the kind of guy who will probably implode but might just provide a miracle. Sunak won’t do either of these things
“If I was a Conservative MP (which, thank the Lord I'm not, Sir) I would be tempted to vote for Boris Johnson.
I wouldn't do it because I thought he had "changed", or because I thought he was a great electoral asset - because I'm not mad…”
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1583811111593611264?s=46&t=rNw_mLeyC2GOdxfHP8RVGQ
Makes sense to me
Personally, I reckon Sunak has got this. The country yearns for an end to the panto and I suspect Tory members do too. So even if boris made the run off he’d lose4 -
Fetterman is fading fast in Pa, also needs watching, as does ArizonaHYUFD said:
All down to Nevada, where the GOP are ahead by 0.6% on average and Georgia where the Democrats are ahead by 1.2% on average, otherwise it is 50 50 still and Harris again has casting voteAndy_JS said:O/T
Major change in the 538 senate forecast: GOP now ahead with 50.1 seats predicted.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/0 -
No Reputation. But Fearless.rcs1000 said:
She's so 1989StillWaters said:
My daughter tells me no one talks about Taylor Swift anymorebondegezou said:So what do people think of the new Taylor Swift album?
0 -
I don't think there's any way he is going to get to 100 Tory MPs willing to put their names on his nomination papers. The BBC only knows of 52 "supporters", which is not really the same as nominators anyway. If 100 were willing to nominate him, why would only about half of them be willing to express support publicly?Richard_Nabavi said:
This is the key point, surely.MikeL said:New declarations now reduced to a trickle.
Change in named supporters since overnight now:
Rishi +21
Boris +41 -
kyf_100 said:
Sunak leads them to a respectable defeat. Boris has a 70% chance of leading the Tories to a total wipeout, a 20% chance of a respectable defeat, or a 10% chance of a miracle recovery.Leon said:
It’s not my thinking at all. It’s someone trying to get inside the thoughts of sane Tory MPs, and trying to deduce why they might go for Boris, despite all the past evidence and the inevitable issues aheadAlistair said:
This is just your Liz Truss thinking reheated.Leon said:Good thread on why Boris might yet win. Basically: the Tories are almost certainly fucked, they need a miracle. Boris is the kind of guy who will probably implode but might just provide a miracle. Sunak won’t do either of these things
“If I was a Conservative MP (which, thank the Lord I'm not, Sir) I would be tempted to vote for Boris Johnson.
I wouldn't do it because I thought he had "changed", or because I thought he was a great electoral asset - because I'm not mad…”
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1583811111593611264?s=46&t=rNw_mLeyC2GOdxfHP8RVGQ
Makes sense to me
Personally, I reckon Sunak has got this. The country yearns for an end to the panto and I suspect Tory members do too. So even if boris made the run off he’d lose
From a completely selfish point of view, i.e. that of a typical Conservative MP, you want to be asking who is most likely to save your seat and therefore your job. If you're in a tight marginal, you need the 1-in-10 shot Boris miracle. If you're in a more comfortable seat, you opt for Sunak in the hope that he will be able to save it. If you're in a safe seat, you vote for whoever knowing you've got a job for life. Isn't democracy wonderful!
But then, when it gets to the members, it will be Who will save my pension, Who will save my kids and their mortgages from 15% interest rates, Who will save Britain from even stormier waters. Which is Sunak
If it comes to it, this time I am pretty sure the membership will reluctantly make the boring choice
But I wonder if it will get that far1 -
At the rate Poland is rearming, I’d say it would be prudent.Dura_Ace said:
What's this "when needed" shit? The purpose of the GAF is to defend the territorial integrity of Germany and meet its NATO commitments which it does. It doesn't exist to attempt to settle intractable slavic border disputes 2,000km to the east.biggles said:
Germany, of all countries, is starting with three working typhoons and six operational tanks. As a major economy and significant world power, they ought to pull their weight when needed and I had hoped Ukraine had given them a reason to wake up (as it hopefully might for us as bits of our capability are pretty thin).Dura_Ace said:
Well, if the Russians can't get to the Dniepr they certainly can't get to the Elbe so what's the justification for increased German defence spending over more socially useful government activity?biggles said:
Sigh…CarlottaVance said:BREAKING:
Germany will significantly cut down the expansion of the army due to “high inflation and the expensive dollar”
Several projects will be cancelled or downsized, including:
Puma IFVs
Self-propelled howitzers
Corvettes
Frigates
Eurofighters
potentially F-35s (downsized)
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/15837780068032348160 -
Democrats still 1.2% ahead in Pa on average and a more comfortable 3.9% ahead in Arizona on averagewooliedyed said:
Fetterman is fading fast in Pa, also needs watching, as does ArizonaHYUFD said:
All down to Nevada, where the GOP are ahead by 0.6% on average and Georgia where the Democrats are ahead by 1.2% on average, otherwise it is 50 50 still and Harris again has casting voteAndy_JS said:O/T
Major change in the 538 senate forecast: GOP now ahead with 50.1 seats predicted.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/0 -
Sir Richard Rich?JohnO said:
Thoughts and prayers for Sir Robert Buckland who ratted on Rishi mid campaign. But for Wales?MikeL said:Graham Stuart (who attends Cabinet) just gone for Rishi.
Rishi now has three declared who attend Cabinet - Philp, Tugendhat and Stuart - but no full Cabinet members.0 -
His original post the the BBC news feed was a straight 'Boris has 100 backers' - with no qualification. Then edited once all the pushback came to say "I have been told" then further to "by a member of the campaign". Then a second post with all the scepticism from... practically everyone else on earth.RH1992 said:
What's the issue? He didn't say directly that he had over 100, just that campaign sources believe it to be so. He immediately clarified that some MPs have got in touch saying they believe it to be hogwash.nico679 said:Utter garbage from Mason . What an embarrassment to even fall for that .
Sky and ITV have reported on it too so it's newsworthy even if it is BS.
I like Chris Mason - don't get me wrong. It's the reason I was so annoyed by it.2 -
Yes. And even if they are real, they might also have privately expressed support for Rishi as well. That's standard operating procedure in a contest like this.Chris said:
I don't think there's any way he is going to get to 100 Tory MPs willing to put their names on his nomination papers. The BBC only knows of 52 "supporters", which is not really the same as nominators anyway. If 100 were willing to nominate him, why would only about half of them be willing to express support publicly?Richard_Nabavi said:
This is the key point, surely.MikeL said:New declarations now reduced to a trickle.
Change in named supporters since overnight now:
Rishi +21
Boris +42 -
The diminutive Alun Cairns' did the same. So no Welsh Secretary cigar for him either.JohnO said:
Thoughts and prayers for Sir Robert Buckland who ratted on Rishi mid campaign. But for Wales?MikeL said:Graham Stuart (who attends Cabinet) just gone for Rishi.
Rishi now has three declared who attend Cabinet - Philp, Tugendhat and Stuart - but no full Cabinet members.
Was of course fired by Johnson. So will he re-rat this time? A sure cert for the backbenches.0 -
Yes but Pa is closing, similar gap to Georgia. Fetterman is a mess.HYUFD said:
Democrats still 1.2% ahead in Pa on average and a more comfortable 3.9% ahead in Arizona on averagewooliedyed said:
Fetterman is fading fast in Pa, also needs watching, as does ArizonaHYUFD said:
All down to Nevada, where the GOP are ahead by 0.6% on average and Georgia where the Democrats are ahead by 1.2% on average, otherwise it is 50 50 still and Harris again has casting voteAndy_JS said:O/T
Major change in the 538 senate forecast: GOP now ahead with 50.1 seats predicted.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/
I'm just saying watch Arizona, i think it will be much tighter and fancy a Republican turnover.0 -
The UFO people seem to have been enlivened, but if aliens exist, their logic looks a little odd. Hiding their presence until they reach Earth, then teasing us with appearing and disappearing at random to strange people. With the empasis on 'strange'. Then we have people who believe BoJo will return?
0 -
Yes, of course that's the issue. And it quite obviously moved the betting markets. But more fool the people who believed it, unattributable as it was.ohnotnow said:
His original post the the BBC news feed was a straight 'Boris has 100 backers' - with no qualification.RH1992 said:
What's the issue? He didn't say directly that he had over 100, just that campaign sources believe it to be so. He immediately clarified that some MPs have got in touch saying they believe it to be hogwash.nico679 said:Utter garbage from Mason . What an embarrassment to even fall for that .
Sky and ITV have reported on it too so it's newsworthy even if it is BS.0 -
That's a shit argument.Leon said:Good thread on why Boris might yet win. Basically: the Tories are almost certainly fucked, they need a miracle. Boris is the kind of guy who will probably implode but might just provide a miracle. Sunak won’t do either of these things
“If I was a Conservative MP (which, thank the Lord I'm not, Sir) I would be tempted to vote for Boris Johnson.
I wouldn't do it because I thought he had "changed", or because I thought he was a great electoral asset - because I'm not mad…”
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1583811111593611264?s=46&t=rNw_mLeyC2GOdxfHP8RVGQ
You've been in the casino making a series of losing bets and are now seriously out of pocket. Someone offering you to lend you some money so you can stick it all on '23 red' might be offering you the only way to miraculously recoup your losses - but that doesn't make it good advice.2 -
Boris and his supporters aren’t known for their slavish adherence to the truth.
Is it possible that the liars are lying about 100 nominations for the liar ?0 -
So was the space hopper, which I compared him to yesterday, briefly.Leon said:
Yes. Boris is risky at a time of worldwide maximum risk. He’s funny and cheering ...wooliedyed said:
I suspect thats the feedback Boris is getting. 'Sit this one out, biggus'Leon said:
It’s not my thinking at all. It’s someone trying to get inside the thoughts of sane Tory MPs, and trying to deduce why they might go for Boris, despite all the past evidence and the inevitable issues aheadAlistair said:
This is just your Liz Truss thinking reheated.Leon said:Good thread on why Boris might yet win. Basically: the Tories are almost certainly fucked, they need a miracle. Boris is the kind of guy who will probably implode but might just provide a miracle. Sunak won’t do either of these things
“If I was a Conservative MP (which, thank the Lord I'm not, Sir) I would be tempted to vote for Boris Johnson.
I wouldn't do it because I thought he had "changed", or because I thought he was a great electoral asset - because I'm not mad…”
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1583811111593611264?s=46&t=rNw_mLeyC2GOdxfHP8RVGQ
Makes sense to me
Personally, I reckon Sunak has got this. The country yearns for an end to the panto and I suspect Tory members do too. So even if boris made the run off he’d lose
A passing fad.
And he’s about as much utility.
0 -
It's possible in the same way it's possible the Pope is Catholic, and its possible that bears sh1t in the woods.Nigelb said:Boris and his supporters aren’t known for their slavish adherence to the truth.
Is it possible that the liars are lying about 100 nominations for the liar ?1 -
Why would their logic fit our expectations? And who says they hide their presence? We wouldnt know what to look for outside crap we useCD13 said:The UFO people seem to have been enlivened, but if aliens exist, their logic looks a little odd. Hiding their presence until they reach Earth, then teasing us with appearing and disappearing at random to strange people. With the empasis on 'strange'. Then we have people who believe BoJo will return?
0 -
I get the distinct impression Sunak isnt up for slugging it out for the job. He is quiet because he wants a coronation and he wants the party to thank him for being 'right', whatever that means to him.
0 -
There might have been a small element of irony in posing the question.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
It's possible in the same way it's possible the Pope is Catholic, and its possible that bears sh1t in the woods.Nigelb said:Boris and his supporters aren’t known for their slavish adherence to the truth.
Is it possible that the liars are lying about 100 nominations for the liar ?1 -
There’s a decent argument for not getting involved in a slugfest, if he has the numbers. No point in alienating those who aren’t among the totally irreconcilable.Yokes said:I get the distinct impression Sunak isnt up for slugging it out for the job. He is quiet because he wants a coronation and he wants the party to thank him for being 'right', whatever that means to him.
1 -
"Boris or (The) Bust!"wooliedyed said:
Im not sure 'cracking knockers, Morders' is an endorsement thoughAndy_JS said:
If he comes out in support of Penny Mordaunt the contest could get interesting.wooliedyed said:I think we will see a Sunday piece on 'why im not running for the sake of unity and the party' by one St Boris of Uxbridge
0 -
"intractable border dispute" is a shameful phrase to use, pretending that there are faults on both sides - as opposed to the truth of Putin being a thug who wants to steal bits of other countries.Dura_Ace said:
What's this "when needed" shit? The purpose of the GAF is to defend the territorial integrity of Germany and meet its NATO commitments which it does. It doesn't exist to attempt to settle intractable slavic border disputes 2,000km to the east.biggles said:
Germany, of all countries, is starting with three working typhoons and six operational tanks. As a major economy and significant world power, they ought to pull their weight when needed and I had hoped Ukraine had given them a reason to wake up (as it hopefully might for us as bits of our capability are pretty thin).Dura_Ace said:
Well, if the Russians can't get to the Dniepr they certainly can't get to the Elbe so what's the justification for increased German defence spending over more socially useful government activity?biggles said:
Sigh…CarlottaVance said:BREAKING:
Germany will significantly cut down the expansion of the army due to “high inflation and the expensive dollar”
Several projects will be cancelled or downsized, including:
Puma IFVs
Self-propelled howitzers
Corvettes
Frigates
Eurofighters
potentially F-35s (downsized)
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/15837780068032348166 -
Get your lads out for the tits...SeaShantyIrish2 said:
"Boris or (The) Bust!"wooliedyed said:
Im not sure 'cracking knockers, Morders' is an endorsement thoughAndy_JS said:
If he comes out in support of Penny Mordaunt the contest could get interesting.wooliedyed said:I think we will see a Sunday piece on 'why im not running for the sake of unity and the party' by one St Boris of Uxbridge
9 -
They've all been quiet, not just Rishi. What has Boris said since landing at Gatwick, or Penny Mordaunt? It may well be the men in grey suits have lent on them all not to rerun the 10 weeks of blue-on-blue attacks through the summer.Nigelb said:
There’s a decent argument for not getting involved in a slugfest, if he has the numbers. No point in alienating those who aren’t among the totally irreconcilable.Yokes said:I get the distinct impression Sunak isnt up for slugging it out for the job. He is quiet because he wants a coronation and he wants the party to thank him for being 'right', whatever that means to him.
0 -
Why hasn't Boris declared yet? What is he waiting for?
His numbers are uncertain. Doesn't want to declare unless he knows for certain he has 100.
Why hasn't Sunak declared yet? What is he waiting for?
He knows he has 100+. If Boris gets 100+ too he knows he loses to Boris in a members vote. Knows Boris will be a disaster for country and party. If Boris gets the numbers the best play would be to back Penny who stands greater chance of beating him with members.
What happens next is going to very much depend on if Boris gets 100. If he doesn't then likely Sunak is PM (unless Boris tells his supporters to go for Mordaunt which would make it interesting). If he does get the numbers then there is a reasonable chance of PM being PM.0 -
Just the sort of fearless politician we need in the coming months of economic peril.Yokes said:I get the distinct impression Sunak isnt up for slugging it out for the job. He is quiet because he wants a coronation and he wants the party to thank him for being 'right', whatever that means to him.
To repurpose a PB cliché, I suspect Sunak is going to surprise on the downside.2 -
Several Conservative MPs have made clear to me that even if Boris Johnson tried to whip a vote on the Privileges Committee, many wouldn’t listen: “if he remembers it was when they tried to change the rules for Owen Paterson that the rot set in.”
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1583818346310815744
A source close to Johnson is since reported saying that he won’t try to stop the enquiry.
I think his run is probably done for.3 -
The problem is that Sunak was the problem in the first place. Unfunded tens of billions of pounds of stimulus got him to the position of public popularity, a lesson reinforced by the few months when he didn't spend tens of billions of pounds and people realised he had a tax-avoiding billionaire wife. P.S. Starmer is as bad. God help Britain.El_Capitano said:
Just the sort of fearless politician we need in the coming months of economic peril.Yokes said:I get the distinct impression Sunak isnt up for slugging it out for the job. He is quiet because he wants a coronation and he wants the party to thank him for being 'right', whatever that means to him.
To repurpose a PB cliché, I suspect Sunak is going to surprise on the downside.0 -
Starmer has a tax avoiding billionaire wife?EPG said:
The problem is that Sunak was the problem in the first place. Unfunded tens of billions of pounds of stimulus got him to the position of public popularity, a lesson reinforced by the few months when he didn't spend tens of billions of pounds and people realised he had a tax-avoiding billionaire wife. P.S. Starmer is as bad. God help Britain.El_Capitano said:
Just the sort of fearless politician we need in the coming months of economic peril.Yokes said:I get the distinct impression Sunak isnt up for slugging it out for the job. He is quiet because he wants a coronation and he wants the party to thank him for being 'right', whatever that means to him.
To repurpose a PB cliché, I suspect Sunak is going to surprise on the downside.0 -
Rob Ford 💙💛
@robfordmancs
·
19m
If Johnson returns he won’t be able to govern
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs0
