For example, the other day, people were all fired up for nationalising the evil natural gas profiteers. I was entirely up for this. Let's nationalise the entire Arabian peninsular again. We would need a company to do the actual oil and gas stuff, though.
I think we will see a Sunday piece on 'why im not running for the sake of unity and the party' by one St Boris of Uxbridge
Boris has no record of standing and losing gracefully. Not standing and still losing disgracefully is more likely. Losing the Telegraph and Mail is a blow to his chances.
This whole thing shows how Starmer has been underrated. Taking control of a party from an opposing faction, where the MPs are mostly pointing one way and the members mostly another, is quite a feat. The Tories don't appear at the moment to have someone capable of doing the same.
The Lab memebership got tired of being in opposition, especially against the repulsive face of Boris.
Cons are in power, that's the big difference I think.
The aliens are also pursuing one particular guy around the backstreets of Plymouth. And Plymouth, of course, has nuclear submarines. Say no more
“A Plymouth man has described the "freaky" moment he saw aliens following him down Mutley Plain. The man, who has asked to remain anonymous, says the incident left him so scared he ran all the way home.
The anonymous man says his first encounter with possible extra-terrestrial life came in July of this year. Since then he says they have appeared quite regularly to him and his friends.
Describing his encounter, he said: "I've seen it loads of times and it actually followed me home. I know that sounds absolutely mental but I was the Hoe and it followed me all the way up North Hill, along Mutley, and to Peverell.”
Obvs more interested in Aldi than HMNB Devonport, or perhaps parking their flying saucer so they could get a nice GWR Pullman coach dinner on the way to visit you in Camden.
I'm starting to think Boris might not run. Bit of a grim book on this but considering I started by laying both rishi and Boris and backing Starmer precontest it's better than it could have been
Haven't seen much on here about the YouGov poll of Con Party members where:
45% of members supported having a members vote on the Final 2 50% of members opposed having a members vote on the Final 2 5% Don't Know
Now in theory the 50% who oppose a members vote should all back whoever comes first in MPs vote.
Of course it won't work like that but if even 20% feel that way and vote for the MPs winner irrespective of their own preference then Sunak would surely be guaranteed to win.
(Boris would need to win those voting with their own view 50/30)
Note 40% of Conservative members who voted for Truss wanted MPs to support a single unity candidate without a membership vote if Truss went as well as an overwhelming 88% of Conservative members who voted for Sunak on that poll
Matt Chorley @MattChorley · 1h % of the public declarations so far:
Sunak 60% Johnson 28% Mordaunt 12%
So of the 142 left to declare, Johnson needs 35% of them to back him *just* to get on the ballot
The concept of "shy Boris backers" seems to go against the evidence of his cheerleaders to date.
What is the point of being shy if one has pinned their hopes on becoming the next Secretary of State for Wales? It has to be "me, me, I voted for you Boris, me!"
The aliens are also pursuing one particular guy around the backstreets of Plymouth. And Plymouth, of course, has nuclear submarines. Say no more
“A Plymouth man has described the "freaky" moment he saw aliens following him down Mutley Plain. The man, who has asked to remain anonymous, says the incident left him so scared he ran all the way home.
The anonymous man says his first encounter with possible extra-terrestrial life came in July of this year. Since then he says they have appeared quite regularly to him and his friends.
Describing his encounter, he said: "I've seen it loads of times and it actually followed me home. I know that sounds absolutely mental but I was the Hoe and it followed me all the way up North Hill, along Mutley, and to Peverell.”
I will always my remember my parents’ local paper having story about a man who had seen a UFO. Or rather, he had seen “lights in the sky” around midnight on New Year’s Eve….
Good thread on why Boris might yet win. Basically: the Tories are almost certainly fucked, they need a miracle. Boris is the kind of guy who will probably implode but might just provide a miracle. Sunak won’t do either of these things
“If I was a Conservative MP (which, thank the Lord I'm not, Sir) I would be tempted to vote for Boris Johnson.
I wouldn't do it because I thought he had "changed", or because I thought he was a great electoral asset - because I'm not mad…”
This whole thing shows how Starmer has been underrated. Taking control of a party from an opposing faction, where the MPs are mostly pointing one way and the members mostly another, is quite a feat. The Tories don't appear at the moment to have someone capable of doing the same.
The Lab memebership got tired of being in opposition, especially against the repulsive face of Boris.
Cons are in power, that's the big difference I think.
Opposition concentrates the mind. As Ken Livingstone once said, if Tony Blair told us to sit naked in Trafalgar Square, we'd do it.
For example, the other day, people were all fired up for nationalising the evil natural gas profiteers. I was entirely up for this. Let's nationalise the entire Arabian peninsular again. We would need a company to do the actual oil and gas stuff, though.
O/T but specially for @Malmesbury and @JosiasJessop in the brief moments of quiescence between the excitements of the cricket - the latest tanknology, this time Which Tank? 2023.
Not sure why Sunak is waiting . Won’t it come to the point where people start getting irritated that he’s not announced . And if this non announcing continues into Sunday that would leave little time for other candidates to come forward .
Clearly Bozo hasn’t announced as he doesn’t have the numbers yet , regardless of the garbage spewing from his team .
If Boris doesn't run he's salted th earth for Sunak.
If he doesn’t run he’s just blown a lot of money on a last minute flight home from the Caribbean and cut short a family holiday for nought.
No, Boris can do a David Davis 2003 and say he does not have the support he needs amongst MPs so is backing a Howard/Sunak coronation selflessly for the good of the party, blah blah to avoid further division after the removal of IDS/Truss.
Knowing full well they would run for the leadership again if Howard/Sunak lost the next general election (and assuming Boris holds Uxbridge or gets a safe seat)
I'm starting to think Boris might not run. Bit of a grim book on this but considering I started by laying both rishi and Boris and backing Starmer precontest it's better than it could have been
I'm in a bad old spot. Very inadvisable lay of Rishi at much longer odds sunk me.
Presumably his problem is that, if he runs and gets it, then he is not going to have a working majority because of the amount of dissent amongst MPs. He will then have to call a general election, which the Conservatives will probably lose. Is this why he may not stand?
Good thread on why Boris might yet win. Basically: the Tories are almost certainly fucked, they need a miracle. Boris is the kind of guy who will probably implode but might just provide a miracle. Sunak won’t do either of these things
“If I was a Conservative MP (which, thank the Lord I'm not, Sir) I would be tempted to vote for Boris Johnson.
I wouldn't do it because I thought he had "changed", or because I thought he was a great electoral asset - because I'm not mad…”
I'm starting to think Boris might not run. Bit of a grim book on this but considering I started by laying both rishi and Boris and backing Starmer precontest it's better than it could have been
I'm in a bad old spot. Very inadvisable lay of Rishi at much longer odds sunk me.
If you do end up losing then I'm really sorry.
I try to follow a rule to bet when the general public are involved but to be more wary when voting is in the hands of an esoteric, few. They are more unpredictable.
I didn't quite believe that the party would be stupid enough to re-select Boris and I still don't. But it may have come close to the chasm.
Presumably his problem is that, if he runs and gets it, then he is not going to have a working majority because of the amount of dissent amongst MPs. He will then have to call a general election, which the Conservatives will probably lose. Is this why he may not stand?
I think it's basically too soon for the great comeback narrative. He needs the divisiveness of this period to subside and for people to perceive that he got the big calls right (including Brexit), and this isn't the case at the moment.
Well, if the Russians can't get to the Dniepr they certainly can't get to the Elbe so what's the justification for increased German defence spending over more socially useful government activity?
Germany, of all countries, is starting with three working typhoons and six operational tanks. As a major economy and significant world power, they ought to pull their weight when needed and I had hoped Ukraine had given them a reason to wake up (as it hopefully might for us as bits of our capability are pretty thin).
What's this "when needed" shit? The purpose of the GAF is to defend the territorial integrity of Germany and meet its NATO commitments which it does. It doesn't exist to attempt to settle intractable slavic border disputes 2,000km to the east.
My reading of the situation is that Johnson isn't getting anything like the support (Charles Moore, Alison Pearson, Lord Frost, Stephen Barclay etc) that you'd expect him to get - on paper.
I don't think he wins even if he gets to the members now.
If Boris doesn't run he's salted th earth for Sunak.
If he doesn’t run he’s just blown a lot of money on a last minute flight home from the Caribbean and cut short a family holiday for nought.
No, Boris can do a David Davis 2003 and say he does not have the support he needs amongst MPs so is backing a Howard/Sunak coronation selflessly for the good of the party, blah blah to avoid further division after the removal of IDS/Truss.
Knowing full well they would run for the leadership again if Howard/Sunak lost the next general election (and assuming Boris holds Uxbridge or gets a safe seat)
can he be just invited by a local association to be the candidate for a safe seat or does it need some endorsement by Head Office?
I'm starting to think Boris might not run. Bit of a grim book on this but considering I started by laying both rishi and Boris and backing Starmer precontest it's better than it could have been
I'm in a bad old spot. Very inadvisable lay of Rishi at much longer odds sunk me.
Good thread on why Boris might yet win. Basically: the Tories are almost certainly fucked, they need a miracle. Boris is the kind of guy who will probably implode but might just provide a miracle. Sunak won’t do either of these things
“If I was a Conservative MP (which, thank the Lord I'm not, Sir) I would be tempted to vote for Boris Johnson.
I wouldn't do it because I thought he had "changed", or because I thought he was a great electoral asset - because I'm not mad…”
It’s not my thinking at all. It’s someone trying to get inside the thoughts of sane Tory MPs, and trying to deduce why they might go for Boris, despite all the past evidence and the inevitable issues ahead
Makes sense to me
Personally, I reckon Sunak has got this. The country yearns for an end to the panto and I suspect Tory members do too. So even if boris made the run off he’d lose
Good thread on why Boris might yet win. Basically: the Tories are almost certainly fucked, they need a miracle. Boris is the kind of guy who will probably implode but might just provide a miracle. Sunak won’t do either of these things
“If I was a Conservative MP (which, thank the Lord I'm not, Sir) I would be tempted to vote for Boris Johnson.
I wouldn't do it because I thought he had "changed", or because I thought he was a great electoral asset - because I'm not mad…”
It’s not my thinking at all. It’s someone trying to get inside the thoughts of sane Tory MPs, and trying to deduce why they might go for Boris, despite all the past evidence and the inevitable issues ahead
Makes sense to me
Personally, I reckon Sunak has got this. The country yearns for an end to the panto and I suspect Tory members do too. So even if boris made the run off he’d lose
I suspect thats the feedback Boris is getting. 'Sit this one out, biggus'
Good thread on why Boris might yet win. Basically: the Tories are almost certainly fucked, they need a miracle. Boris is the kind of guy who will probably implode but might just provide a miracle. Sunak won’t do either of these things
“If I was a Conservative MP (which, thank the Lord I'm not, Sir) I would be tempted to vote for Boris Johnson.
I wouldn't do it because I thought he had "changed", or because I thought he was a great electoral asset - because I'm not mad…”
It’s not my thinking at all. It’s someone trying to get inside the thoughts of sane Tory MPs, and trying to deduce why they might go for Boris, despite all the past evidence and the inevitable issues ahead
Makes sense to me
Personally, I reckon Sunak has got this. The country yearns for an end to the panto and I suspect Tory members do too. So even if boris made the run off he’d lose
I suspect thats the feedback Boris is getting. 'Sit this one out, biggus'
Which is what Charles Moore wrote in this morning's Daily Telegraph. And Moore is Boris' mentor.
Good thread on why Boris might yet win. Basically: the Tories are almost certainly fucked, they need a miracle. Boris is the kind of guy who will probably implode but might just provide a miracle. Sunak won’t do either of these things
“If I was a Conservative MP (which, thank the Lord I'm not, Sir) I would be tempted to vote for Boris Johnson.
I wouldn't do it because I thought he had "changed", or because I thought he was a great electoral asset - because I'm not mad…”
It’s not my thinking at all. It’s someone trying to get inside the thoughts of sane Tory MPs, and trying to deduce why they might go for Boris, despite all the past evidence and the inevitable issues ahead
Makes sense to me
Personally, I reckon Sunak has got this. The country yearns for an end to the panto and I suspect Tory members do too. So even if boris made the run off he’d lose
I suspect thats the feedback Boris is getting. 'Sit this one out, biggus'
Yes. Boris is risky at a time of worldwide maximum risk. He’s funny and cheering but we no longer desire to be amused, or cheered, we want to avoid world war and make it through winter and not lose our homes due to soaring mortgage rates
All down to Nevada, where the GOP are ahead by 0.6% on average and Georgia where the Democrats are ahead by 1.2% on average, otherwise it is 50 50 still and Harris again has casting vote
Good thread on why Boris might yet win. Basically: the Tories are almost certainly fucked, they need a miracle. Boris is the kind of guy who will probably implode but might just provide a miracle. Sunak won’t do either of these things
“If I was a Conservative MP (which, thank the Lord I'm not, Sir) I would be tempted to vote for Boris Johnson.
I wouldn't do it because I thought he had "changed", or because I thought he was a great electoral asset - because I'm not mad…”
It’s not my thinking at all. It’s someone trying to get inside the thoughts of sane Tory MPs, and trying to deduce why they might go for Boris, despite all the past evidence and the inevitable issues ahead
Makes sense to me
Personally, I reckon Sunak has got this. The country yearns for an end to the panto and I suspect Tory members do too. So even if boris made the run off he’d lose
I suspect thats the feedback Boris is getting. 'Sit this one out, biggus'
It makes sense on a few levels. That said time passes and people move on. In 2025 after an election defeat will members reliably back him, or will they look for a new generation? More scandals may come to light in the meantime too. We’re seeing that time passing dynamic with Trump too.
If Sunak leads the Tories to a suitably narrow defeat at the next election and with reasonable personal ratings the best option for them might even be to keep him as leader.
Good thread on why Boris might yet win. Basically: the Tories are almost certainly fucked, they need a miracle. Boris is the kind of guy who will probably implode but might just provide a miracle. Sunak won’t do either of these things
“If I was a Conservative MP (which, thank the Lord I'm not, Sir) I would be tempted to vote for Boris Johnson.
I wouldn't do it because I thought he had "changed", or because I thought he was a great electoral asset - because I'm not mad…”
It’s not my thinking at all. It’s someone trying to get inside the thoughts of sane Tory MPs, and trying to deduce why they might go for Boris, despite all the past evidence and the inevitable issues ahead
Makes sense to me
Personally, I reckon Sunak has got this. The country yearns for an end to the panto and I suspect Tory members do too. So even if boris made the run off he’d lose
Sunak leads them to a respectable defeat. Boris has a 70% chance of leading the Tories to a total wipeout, a 20% chance of a respectable defeat, or a 10% chance of a miracle recovery.
From a completely selfish point of view, i.e. that of a typical Conservative MP, you want to be asking who is most likely to save your seat and therefore your job. If you're in a tight marginal, you need the 1-in-10 shot Boris miracle. If you're in a more comfortable seat, you opt for Sunak in the hope that he will be able to save it. If you're in a safe seat, you vote for whoever knowing you've got a job for life. Isn't democracy wonderful!
Good thread on why Boris might yet win. Basically: the Tories are almost certainly fucked, they need a miracle. Boris is the kind of guy who will probably implode but might just provide a miracle. Sunak won’t do either of these things
“If I was a Conservative MP (which, thank the Lord I'm not, Sir) I would be tempted to vote for Boris Johnson.
I wouldn't do it because I thought he had "changed", or because I thought he was a great electoral asset - because I'm not mad…”
It’s not my thinking at all. It’s someone trying to get inside the thoughts of sane Tory MPs, and trying to deduce why they might go for Boris, despite all the past evidence and the inevitable issues ahead
Makes sense to me
Personally, I reckon Sunak has got this. The country yearns for an end to the panto and I suspect Tory members do too. So even if boris made the run off he’d lose
I suspect thats the feedback Boris is getting. 'Sit this one out, biggus'
Yes. Boris is risky at a time of worldwide maximum risk. He’s funny and cheering but we no longer desire to be amused, or cheered, we want to avoid world war and make it through winter and not lose our homes due to soaring mortgage rates
Yes, its time for the driest of the dry not mad dog mania Its Sunak, Hunt, Starmer all the way down
Good thread on why Boris might yet win. Basically: the Tories are almost certainly fucked, they need a miracle. Boris is the kind of guy who will probably implode but might just provide a miracle. Sunak won’t do either of these things
“If I was a Conservative MP (which, thank the Lord I'm not, Sir) I would be tempted to vote for Boris Johnson.
I wouldn't do it because I thought he had "changed", or because I thought he was a great electoral asset - because I'm not mad…”
It’s not my thinking at all. It’s someone trying to get inside the thoughts of sane Tory MPs, and trying to deduce why they might go for Boris, despite all the past evidence and the inevitable issues ahead
Makes sense to me
Personally, I reckon Sunak has got this. The country yearns for an end to the panto and I suspect Tory members do too. So even if boris made the run off he’d lose
I suspect thats the feedback Boris is getting. 'Sit this one out, biggus'
Yes. Boris is risky at a time of worldwide maximum risk. He’s funny and cheering ...
All down to Nevada, where the GOP are ahead by 0.6% on average and Georgia where the Democrats are ahead by 1.2% on average, otherwise it is 50 50 still and Harris again has casting vote
I don't think there's any way he is going to get to 100 Tory MPs willing to put their names on his nomination papers. The BBC only knows of 52 "supporters", which is not really the same as nominators anyway. If 100 were willing to nominate him, why would only about half of them be willing to express support publicly?
Good thread on why Boris might yet win. Basically: the Tories are almost certainly fucked, they need a miracle. Boris is the kind of guy who will probably implode but might just provide a miracle. Sunak won’t do either of these things
“If I was a Conservative MP (which, thank the Lord I'm not, Sir) I would be tempted to vote for Boris Johnson.
I wouldn't do it because I thought he had "changed", or because I thought he was a great electoral asset - because I'm not mad…”
It’s not my thinking at all. It’s someone trying to get inside the thoughts of sane Tory MPs, and trying to deduce why they might go for Boris, despite all the past evidence and the inevitable issues ahead
Makes sense to me
Personally, I reckon Sunak has got this. The country yearns for an end to the panto and I suspect Tory members do too. So even if boris made the run off he’d lose
Sunak leads them to a respectable defeat. Boris has a 70% chance of leading the Tories to a total wipeout, a 20% chance of a respectable defeat, or a 10% chance of a miracle recovery.
From a completely selfish point of view, i.e. that of a typical Conservative MP, you want to be asking who is most likely to save your seat and therefore your job. If you're in a tight marginal, you need the 1-in-10 shot Boris miracle. If you're in a more comfortable seat, you opt for Sunak in the hope that he will be able to save it. If you're in a safe seat, you vote for whoever knowing you've got a job for life. Isn't democracy wonderful!
But then, when it gets to the members, it will be Who will save my pension, Who will save my kids and their mortgages from 15% interest rates, Who will save Britain from even stormier waters. Which is Sunak
If it comes to it, this time I am pretty sure the membership will reluctantly make the boring choice
Well, if the Russians can't get to the Dniepr they certainly can't get to the Elbe so what's the justification for increased German defence spending over more socially useful government activity?
Germany, of all countries, is starting with three working typhoons and six operational tanks. As a major economy and significant world power, they ought to pull their weight when needed and I had hoped Ukraine had given them a reason to wake up (as it hopefully might for us as bits of our capability are pretty thin).
What's this "when needed" shit? The purpose of the GAF is to defend the territorial integrity of Germany and meet its NATO commitments which it does. It doesn't exist to attempt to settle intractable slavic border disputes 2,000km to the east.
At the rate Poland is rearming, I’d say it would be prudent.
All down to Nevada, where the GOP are ahead by 0.6% on average and Georgia where the Democrats are ahead by 1.2% on average, otherwise it is 50 50 still and Harris again has casting vote
Utter garbage from Mason . What an embarrassment to even fall for that .
What's the issue? He didn't say directly that he had over 100, just that campaign sources believe it to be so. He immediately clarified that some MPs have got in touch saying they believe it to be hogwash.
Sky and ITV have reported on it too so it's newsworthy even if it is BS.
His original post the the BBC news feed was a straight 'Boris has 100 backers' - with no qualification. Then edited once all the pushback came to say "I have been told" then further to "by a member of the campaign". Then a second post with all the scepticism from... practically everyone else on earth.
I like Chris Mason - don't get me wrong. It's the reason I was so annoyed by it.
I don't think there's any way he is going to get to 100 Tory MPs willing to put their names on his nomination papers. The BBC only knows of 52 "supporters", which is not really the same as nominators anyway. If 100 were willing to nominate him, why would only about half of them be willing to express support publicly?
Yes. And even if they are real, they might also have privately expressed support for Rishi as well. That's standard operating procedure in a contest like this.
All down to Nevada, where the GOP are ahead by 0.6% on average and Georgia where the Democrats are ahead by 1.2% on average, otherwise it is 50 50 still and Harris again has casting vote
Fetterman is fading fast in Pa, also needs watching, as does Arizona
Democrats still 1.2% ahead in Pa on average and a more comfortable 3.9% ahead in Arizona on average
Yes but Pa is closing, similar gap to Georgia. Fetterman is a mess. I'm just saying watch Arizona, i think it will be much tighter and fancy a Republican turnover.
The UFO people seem to have been enlivened, but if aliens exist, their logic looks a little odd. Hiding their presence until they reach Earth, then teasing us with appearing and disappearing at random to strange people. With the empasis on 'strange'. Then we have people who believe BoJo will return?
Utter garbage from Mason . What an embarrassment to even fall for that .
What's the issue? He didn't say directly that he had over 100, just that campaign sources believe it to be so. He immediately clarified that some MPs have got in touch saying they believe it to be hogwash.
Sky and ITV have reported on it too so it's newsworthy even if it is BS.
His original post the the BBC news feed was a straight 'Boris has 100 backers' - with no qualification.
Yes, of course that's the issue. And it quite obviously moved the betting markets. But more fool the people who believed it, unattributable as it was.
Good thread on why Boris might yet win. Basically: the Tories are almost certainly fucked, they need a miracle. Boris is the kind of guy who will probably implode but might just provide a miracle. Sunak won’t do either of these things
“If I was a Conservative MP (which, thank the Lord I'm not, Sir) I would be tempted to vote for Boris Johnson.
I wouldn't do it because I thought he had "changed", or because I thought he was a great electoral asset - because I'm not mad…”
You've been in the casino making a series of losing bets and are now seriously out of pocket. Someone offering you to lend you some money so you can stick it all on '23 red' might be offering you the only way to miraculously recoup your losses - but that doesn't make it good advice.
Boris and his supporters aren’t known for their slavish adherence to the truth. Is it possible that the liars are lying about 100 nominations for the liar ?
Good thread on why Boris might yet win. Basically: the Tories are almost certainly fucked, they need a miracle. Boris is the kind of guy who will probably implode but might just provide a miracle. Sunak won’t do either of these things
“If I was a Conservative MP (which, thank the Lord I'm not, Sir) I would be tempted to vote for Boris Johnson.
I wouldn't do it because I thought he had "changed", or because I thought he was a great electoral asset - because I'm not mad…”
It’s not my thinking at all. It’s someone trying to get inside the thoughts of sane Tory MPs, and trying to deduce why they might go for Boris, despite all the past evidence and the inevitable issues ahead
Makes sense to me
Personally, I reckon Sunak has got this. The country yearns for an end to the panto and I suspect Tory members do too. So even if boris made the run off he’d lose
I suspect thats the feedback Boris is getting. 'Sit this one out, biggus'
Yes. Boris is risky at a time of worldwide maximum risk. He’s funny and cheering ...
So was the space hopper, which I compared him to yesterday, briefly. A passing fad.
Boris and his supporters aren’t known for their slavish adherence to the truth. Is it possible that the liars are lying about 100 nominations for the liar ?
It's possible in the same way it's possible the Pope is Catholic, and its possible that bears sh1t in the woods.
The UFO people seem to have been enlivened, but if aliens exist, their logic looks a little odd. Hiding their presence until they reach Earth, then teasing us with appearing and disappearing at random to strange people. With the empasis on 'strange'. Then we have people who believe BoJo will return?
Why would their logic fit our expectations? And who says they hide their presence? We wouldnt know what to look for outside crap we use
I get the distinct impression Sunak isnt up for slugging it out for the job. He is quiet because he wants a coronation and he wants the party to thank him for being 'right', whatever that means to him.
Boris and his supporters aren’t known for their slavish adherence to the truth. Is it possible that the liars are lying about 100 nominations for the liar ?
It's possible in the same way it's possible the Pope is Catholic, and its possible that bears sh1t in the woods.
There might have been a small element of irony in posing the question.
Boris and his supporters aren’t known for their slavish adherence to the truth. Is it possible that the liars are lying about 100 nominations for the liar ?
Yes, highly possible. I'd go as far as to say probable.
I get the distinct impression Sunak isnt up for slugging it out for the job. He is quiet because he wants a coronation and he wants the party to thank him for being 'right', whatever that means to him.
There’s a decent argument for not getting involved in a slugfest, if he has the numbers. No point in alienating those who aren’t among the totally irreconcilable.
Well, if the Russians can't get to the Dniepr they certainly can't get to the Elbe so what's the justification for increased German defence spending over more socially useful government activity?
Germany, of all countries, is starting with three working typhoons and six operational tanks. As a major economy and significant world power, they ought to pull their weight when needed and I had hoped Ukraine had given them a reason to wake up (as it hopefully might for us as bits of our capability are pretty thin).
What's this "when needed" shit? The purpose of the GAF is to defend the territorial integrity of Germany and meet its NATO commitments which it does. It doesn't exist to attempt to settle intractable slavic border disputes 2,000km to the east.
"intractable border dispute" is a shameful phrase to use, pretending that there are faults on both sides - as opposed to the truth of Putin being a thug who wants to steal bits of other countries.
I get the distinct impression Sunak isnt up for slugging it out for the job. He is quiet because he wants a coronation and he wants the party to thank him for being 'right', whatever that means to him.
There’s a decent argument for not getting involved in a slugfest, if he has the numbers. No point in alienating those who aren’t among the totally irreconcilable.
They've all been quiet, not just Rishi. What has Boris said since landing at Gatwick, or Penny Mordaunt? It may well be the men in grey suits have lent on them all not to rerun the 10 weeks of blue-on-blue attacks through the summer.
Why hasn't Boris declared yet? What is he waiting for? His numbers are uncertain. Doesn't want to declare unless he knows for certain he has 100.
Why hasn't Sunak declared yet? What is he waiting for? He knows he has 100+. If Boris gets 100+ too he knows he loses to Boris in a members vote. Knows Boris will be a disaster for country and party. If Boris gets the numbers the best play would be to back Penny who stands greater chance of beating him with members.
What happens next is going to very much depend on if Boris gets 100. If he doesn't then likely Sunak is PM (unless Boris tells his supporters to go for Mordaunt which would make it interesting). If he does get the numbers then there is a reasonable chance of PM being PM.
I get the distinct impression Sunak isnt up for slugging it out for the job. He is quiet because he wants a coronation and he wants the party to thank him for being 'right', whatever that means to him.
Just the sort of fearless politician we need in the coming months of economic peril.
To repurpose a PB cliché, I suspect Sunak is going to surprise on the downside.
Several Conservative MPs have made clear to me that even if Boris Johnson tried to whip a vote on the Privileges Committee, many wouldn’t listen: “if he remembers it was when they tried to change the rules for Owen Paterson that the rot set in.” https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1583818346310815744
A source close to Johnson is since reported saying that he won’t try to stop the enquiry.
I get the distinct impression Sunak isnt up for slugging it out for the job. He is quiet because he wants a coronation and he wants the party to thank him for being 'right', whatever that means to him.
Just the sort of fearless politician we need in the coming months of economic peril.
To repurpose a PB cliché, I suspect Sunak is going to surprise on the downside.
The problem is that Sunak was the problem in the first place. Unfunded tens of billions of pounds of stimulus got him to the position of public popularity, a lesson reinforced by the few months when he didn't spend tens of billions of pounds and people realised he had a tax-avoiding billionaire wife. P.S. Starmer is as bad. God help Britain.
I get the distinct impression Sunak isnt up for slugging it out for the job. He is quiet because he wants a coronation and he wants the party to thank him for being 'right', whatever that means to him.
Just the sort of fearless politician we need in the coming months of economic peril.
To repurpose a PB cliché, I suspect Sunak is going to surprise on the downside.
The problem is that Sunak was the problem in the first place. Unfunded tens of billions of pounds of stimulus got him to the position of public popularity, a lesson reinforced by the few months when he didn't spend tens of billions of pounds and people realised he had a tax-avoiding billionaire wife. P.S. Starmer is as bad. God help Britain.
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Cons are in power, that's the big difference I think.
Change in named supporters since overnight now:
Rishi +21
Boris +4
“If I was a Conservative MP (which, thank the Lord I'm not, Sir) I would be tempted to vote for Boris Johnson.
I wouldn't do it because I thought he had "changed", or because I thought he was a great electoral asset - because I'm not mad…”
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1583811111593611264?s=46&t=rNw_mLeyC2GOdxfHP8RVGQ
Time would be very limited but I guess it would be possible for her to give it a go.
Reminding MPs of the old Boris flame
Clearly Bozo hasn’t announced as he doesn’t have the numbers yet , regardless of the garbage spewing from his team .
Knowing full well they would run for the leadership again if Howard/Sunak lost the next general election (and assuming Boris holds Uxbridge or gets a safe seat)
Sunak 11
Johnson 8
Mordaunt 2
30 of the 51 (but one of those is Mordaunt).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Research_Group
Rishi now has three declared who attend Cabinet - Philp, Tugendhat and Stuart - but no full Cabinet members.
Given there are 357 Tory MPs currently taking the whip that should be manageable for him.
Major change in the 538 senate forecast: GOP now ahead with 50.1 seats predicted.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/
I try to follow a rule to bet when the general public are involved but to be more wary when voting is in the hands of an esoteric, few. They are more unpredictable.
I didn't quite believe that the party would be stupid enough to re-select Boris and I still don't. But it may have come close to the chasm.
Was of course fired by Johnson. So will he re-rat this time? A sure cert for the backbenches.
I don't think he wins even if he gets to the members now.
I expect him to give posts to all wings of the party, even the barking, and - for the sake of unity - he's right to do so.
Makes sense to me
Personally, I reckon Sunak has got this. The country yearns for an end to the panto and I suspect Tory members do too. So even if boris made the run off he’d lose
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/21/boris-remains-remarkable-politician-should-sit-one/
£££
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/
If Sunak leads the Tories to a suitably narrow defeat at the next election and with reasonable personal ratings the best option for them might even be to keep him as leader.
From a completely selfish point of view, i.e. that of a typical Conservative MP, you want to be asking who is most likely to save your seat and therefore your job. If you're in a tight marginal, you need the 1-in-10 shot Boris miracle. If you're in a more comfortable seat, you opt for Sunak in the hope that he will be able to save it. If you're in a safe seat, you vote for whoever knowing you've got a job for life. Isn't democracy wonderful!
Its Sunak, Hunt, Starmer all the way down
But then, when it gets to the members, it will be Who will save my pension, Who will save my kids and their mortgages from 15% interest rates, Who will save Britain from even stormier waters. Which is Sunak
If it comes to it, this time I am pretty sure the membership will reluctantly make the boring choice
But I wonder if it will get that far
I like Chris Mason - don't get me wrong. It's the reason I was so annoyed by it.
I'm just saying watch Arizona, i think it will be much tighter and fancy a Republican turnover.
You've been in the casino making a series of losing bets and are now seriously out of pocket. Someone offering you to lend you some money so you can stick it all on '23 red' might be offering you the only way to miraculously recoup your losses - but that doesn't make it good advice.
Is it possible that the liars are lying about 100 nominations for the liar ?
A passing fad.
And he’s about as much utility.
His numbers are uncertain. Doesn't want to declare unless he knows for certain he has 100.
Why hasn't Sunak declared yet? What is he waiting for?
He knows he has 100+. If Boris gets 100+ too he knows he loses to Boris in a members vote. Knows Boris will be a disaster for country and party. If Boris gets the numbers the best play would be to back Penny who stands greater chance of beating him with members.
What happens next is going to very much depend on if Boris gets 100. If he doesn't then likely Sunak is PM (unless Boris tells his supporters to go for Mordaunt which would make it interesting). If he does get the numbers then there is a reasonable chance of PM being PM.
To repurpose a PB cliché, I suspect Sunak is going to surprise on the downside.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1583818346310815744
A source close to Johnson is since reported saying that he won’t try to stop the enquiry.
I think his run is probably done for.
@robfordmancs
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19m
If Johnson returns he won’t be able to govern
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs