The Tories really are up a certain creek without a paddle or canoe – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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I always thought that Penny Mourdant was asked to stand to try and stop Boirs from reaching 100. Now that he appears to have done it he will not back down and will insist on a members vote. He may trail MPs by 200-100 but will probably win the racist OAP (members) vote.
Step forward PM BJ2. For a few months until he is forced to resign and we are all back where we started.
UK - the original banana monarchy.1 -
Heh.Benpointer said:
Come off it. AV ok, Sindy fine, but topology's a bit of a stretch isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:I cannot believe people are dissing Liverpool FC or have people forgotten I'm in charge for the next 8 days.
If this continues I may just treat you all to several threads on the alternative vote system, Scottish Independence, and topology.
Still amuses me that the most on topic thread in the history of PB was about topology.0 -
The real issue here is that a large chunk of Eastern Europe thinks that Germany would let them swing for more washing machine sales.biggles said:
I think the actual change in German attitudes that needs to happen most is more fundamental and about dropping the pacifist post-WW2 nonsense - having an outward looking defence capability is a part of that. Same with Japan. It was all 70 years ago and for the sake of their own sense of pride and self esteem both countries need to move on.Theuniondivvie said:
Probably won't cut much Senf in the Bundeskanzleramt, but stopping the PB Germanophobes going off on one for the umpteenth time?Dura_Ace said:
Well, if the Russians can't get to the Dniepr they certainly can't get to the Elbe so what's the justification for increased German defence spending over more socially useful government activity?biggles said:
Sigh…CarlottaVance said:BREAKING:
Germany will significantly cut down the expansion of the army due to “high inflation and the expensive dollar”
Several projects will be cancelled or downsized, including:
Puma IFVs
Self-propelled howitzers
Corvettes
Frigates
Eurofighters
potentially F-35s (downsized)
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1583778006803234816
No modern German should ever give their role in the Second World War a second thought - I think many still do, sadly.
On reason they are very keen on Ukraine in the EU is that their collective voice will be much louder.2 -
The obvious problem with anonymous backers is that they could be anonymously backing Johnson, Sunak and Mordaunt at the same time.Benpointer said:
Thanks. Strange Guido still only has Johnson at 71, including 16 anonymous backers.ohnotnow said:
BBC's Chris Mason has posted it. Not sure if that counts.Benpointer said:
'Apparently'Razedabode said:Apparently Johnson has “100” nominations. Hmmm.
Not sure if that’s a bluff
A source would be good, even an unreliable one.0 -
Who are 'centrist' members and what does their 'centrism' consist of?Scott_xP said:NEW: @ToryReformGroup survey finds 86% of centrist Tory members do NOT want Boris back.
Chair @floetry "We have seen that the party’s centrist members have been ‘quiet quitting’ for years... it's clear the return of Johnson would finally end the relationship for many."
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/15838214031908864022 -
Something else was 52/48 too. Escapes me what.HYUFD said:
It is about 52% Lula 48% Bolsonaro, similar to the margin Biden beat Trump by in 2020Alistair said:
Polling is a lot close in Brazil than I was expecting at this stage.gettingbetter said:The way the market is moving it looks like Rishi is pretty certain to win. It would be nice to get some cash out to pit more on Lula whose odds of 1.72 look very attractive. Strange how the markets always overstate the chances of the populist right.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Brazilian_presidential_election1 -
52/48 is overwhelming isn't it?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. L, didn't watch the match but Manchester United and Spurs had almost identical possession (52/48%) yet the former had thrice the shots/shots on target, if memory serves.
Mind you, Arsenal had similar stats and two-thirds possession, so maybe Spurs are just a bit rubbish against top sides.0 -
Starmer had a 9% lead over Sunak as preferred PM with Yougov yesterday.ThomasNashe said:If Sunak can stabilise the economy while seeing off cakeism, he will go down as an important figure in history, even though he faces inevitable defeat in 2024.
Restricting Labour to a 1997 result will also mean that the Tory party has a future, and he’ll get the credit for that in the long term.
On the new boundaries that would be closer to a Cameron 2010 result for Starmer than Blair 1997.
Brown of course elected by Labour MPs by coronation in 2007 much as Sunak would now be elected by Conservative MPs by coronation0 -
Sunak drifted out to 4/9. I'm tempted.nico679 said:A campaign source ! Really . This looks like an attempt to frighten off Sunak .
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Mr. Pointer, you're thinking of the Manchester United/Spurs possession stats, which saw Manchester United win the match.1
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O/T but specially for @Malmesbury and @JosiasJessop in the brief moments of quiescence between the excitements of the cricket - the latest tanknology, this time Which Tank? 2023.
https://www.tanknology.co.uk/post/tanks-of-2022-old-dogs-new-tricks0 -
If you read the Portuguese version of that page, you would get a different impression.Benpointer said:
Something else was 52/48 too. Escapes me what.HYUFD said:
It is about 52% Lula 48% Bolsonaro, similar to the margin Biden beat Trump by in 2020Alistair said:
Polling is a lot close in Brazil than I was expecting at this stage.gettingbetter said:The way the market is moving it looks like Rishi is pretty certain to win. It would be nice to get some cash out to pit more on Lula whose odds of 1.72 look very attractive. Strange how the markets always overstate the chances of the populist right.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Brazilian_presidential_election0 -
A reminder.
Rishi will win
Then there will be a GE in 2024 where LAB will probably get a majority say LAB 340 seats CON 220 on something like a 40-34 vote share.
Remember although CON are useless there really isn't much enthusiasm for Keir or LAB.2 -
Fpt @Cicero
You’re missing the pointCicero said:
"When the facts change we change our minds, what do you do sir?" Brexit is already deeply unpopular.StillWaters said:
So basically to try and do an end runaround the decision of the people to leave the EU?Foxy said:
Yes, that is pretty much LD policy, to serially rejoin individual European bodies, thereby reducing red tape. Expanding pan European Co-operation on climate, energy and diplomacy. To salami slice away Brexit until only a stump is left. At that point formal Rejoin becomes the obvious and popular thing to do.MJW said:
Hell of an epic fail to be 40 points ahead in the polls, regardless of the Tories woes. And it's right. Look I'd like to rejoin, and if there were a magic wand that would make 2016 disappear I'd wave it, but the practicalities of rejoining would reopen a fissure that would give the Tories a lifeline and suck up an awful lot of time and energy at a time when it's needed on other issues. Rejoining is also liable to take a lot of behind closed doors diplomacy before you announce anything, as otherwise you're liable for it to be cast as the worst possible deal that people will dislike - and you probably have to have another toxic referendum. He's been smartly vague, and we really do need to unpick Johnson's awful deal, design something that sits closer to membership, rejoin EU bodies and repair much of the immense damage before we formally rejoin. It's so dire it's a long-term repair job first, before we think about returning. Plus, the way things are going, Brexit is only getting less popular so you can afford to allow that to play out before giving in to public demand if it occurs.StuartDickson said:
Over two-thirds of Scots want to rejoin the EUSouthamObserver said:
Thinking Brexit was a mistake and wanting to spend huge amounts of time and energy on negotiating the UK’s re-entry are two very different things. My guess is that most people are far keener on a much better relationship with the EU than they are about rejoining, which is exactly where Starmer is. There is certainly space to go further, though, as whoever ends up leading the Tories cannot begin to accept the Brexit deal Johnson negotiated was awful.StuartDickson said:Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger
https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w
Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
Again.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20681698.two-thirds-scots-want-rejoin-eu/
And that was in August. The UK-wide data indicates that things have swung even more to the pro-Europe side since then.
Starmer has made some appalling strategic choices, and being pro-Brexit is one of the biggest. An epic fail.
@Foxy suggestion was to rejoin individual bodies to de facto reverse the Brexit decision. That’s anti-democratic.
If you think that Brexit is a bad idea, which is a arguable position, then campaign for a Rejoin referendum and secure democratic consent0 -
Happening as we speakStillWaters said:Fpt @Cicero
You’re missing the pointCicero said:
"When the facts change we change our minds, what do you do sir?" Brexit is already deeply unpopular.StillWaters said:
So basically to try and do an end runaround the decision of the people to leave the EU?Foxy said:
Yes, that is pretty much LD policy, to serially rejoin individual European bodies, thereby reducing red tape. Expanding pan European Co-operation on climate, energy and diplomacy. To salami slice away Brexit until only a stump is left. At that point formal Rejoin becomes the obvious and popular thing to do.MJW said:
Hell of an epic fail to be 40 points ahead in the polls, regardless of the Tories woes. And it's right. Look I'd like to rejoin, and if there were a magic wand that would make 2016 disappear I'd wave it, but the practicalities of rejoining would reopen a fissure that would give the Tories a lifeline and suck up an awful lot of time and energy at a time when it's needed on other issues. Rejoining is also liable to take a lot of behind closed doors diplomacy before you announce anything, as otherwise you're liable for it to be cast as the worst possible deal that people will dislike - and you probably have to have another toxic referendum. He's been smartly vague, and we really do need to unpick Johnson's awful deal, design something that sits closer to membership, rejoin EU bodies and repair much of the immense damage before we formally rejoin. It's so dire it's a long-term repair job first, before we think about returning. Plus, the way things are going, Brexit is only getting less popular so you can afford to allow that to play out before giving in to public demand if it occurs.StuartDickson said:
Over two-thirds of Scots want to rejoin the EUSouthamObserver said:
Thinking Brexit was a mistake and wanting to spend huge amounts of time and energy on negotiating the UK’s re-entry are two very different things. My guess is that most people are far keener on a much better relationship with the EU than they are about rejoining, which is exactly where Starmer is. There is certainly space to go further, though, as whoever ends up leading the Tories cannot begin to accept the Brexit deal Johnson negotiated was awful.StuartDickson said:Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger
https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w
Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
Again.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20681698.two-thirds-scots-want-rejoin-eu/
And that was in August. The UK-wide data indicates that things have swung even more to the pro-Europe side since then.
Starmer has made some appalling strategic choices, and being pro-Brexit is one of the biggest. An epic fail.
@Foxy suggestion was to rejoin individual bodies to de facto reverse the Brexit decision. That’s anti-democratic.
If you think that Brexit is a bad idea, which is a arguable position, then campaign for a Rejoin referendum and secure democratic consent
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Nah, Brexit was all about parliamentary sovereignty, if a party campaign on a manifesto commitment to rejoin the single market and they win a majority then that is the will of the people.StillWaters said:Fpt @Cicero
You’re missing the pointCicero said:
"When the facts change we change our minds, what do you do sir?" Brexit is already deeply unpopular.StillWaters said:
So basically to try and do an end runaround the decision of the people to leave the EU?Foxy said:
Yes, that is pretty much LD policy, to serially rejoin individual European bodies, thereby reducing red tape. Expanding pan European Co-operation on climate, energy and diplomacy. To salami slice away Brexit until only a stump is left. At that point formal Rejoin becomes the obvious and popular thing to do.MJW said:
Hell of an epic fail to be 40 points ahead in the polls, regardless of the Tories woes. And it's right. Look I'd like to rejoin, and if there were a magic wand that would make 2016 disappear I'd wave it, but the practicalities of rejoining would reopen a fissure that would give the Tories a lifeline and suck up an awful lot of time and energy at a time when it's needed on other issues. Rejoining is also liable to take a lot of behind closed doors diplomacy before you announce anything, as otherwise you're liable for it to be cast as the worst possible deal that people will dislike - and you probably have to have another toxic referendum. He's been smartly vague, and we really do need to unpick Johnson's awful deal, design something that sits closer to membership, rejoin EU bodies and repair much of the immense damage before we formally rejoin. It's so dire it's a long-term repair job first, before we think about returning. Plus, the way things are going, Brexit is only getting less popular so you can afford to allow that to play out before giving in to public demand if it occurs.StuartDickson said:
Over two-thirds of Scots want to rejoin the EUSouthamObserver said:
Thinking Brexit was a mistake and wanting to spend huge amounts of time and energy on negotiating the UK’s re-entry are two very different things. My guess is that most people are far keener on a much better relationship with the EU than they are about rejoining, which is exactly where Starmer is. There is certainly space to go further, though, as whoever ends up leading the Tories cannot begin to accept the Brexit deal Johnson negotiated was awful.StuartDickson said:Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger
https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w
Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
Again.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20681698.two-thirds-scots-want-rejoin-eu/
And that was in August. The UK-wide data indicates that things have swung even more to the pro-Europe side since then.
Starmer has made some appalling strategic choices, and being pro-Brexit is one of the biggest. An epic fail.
@Foxy suggestion was to rejoin individual bodies to de facto reverse the Brexit decision. That’s anti-democratic.
If you think that Brexit is a bad idea, which is a arguable position, then campaign for a Rejoin referendum and secure democratic consent3 -
His arithmetic and grammar aren't up to much either: "Boris Johnson now has more than 100 backers among Conservative MPs, a campaign source tells me ... This is less than the number of publicly declared backers for Johnson, which stand [sic] at 49"Tres said:Mason is following the Kuenssberg approach in blindly regurgitating any lines he gets from Johnson rampers. That is a disgrace.
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Utter garbage from Mason . What an embarrassment to even fall for that .7
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Honestly surprised it was as close as that. It did not feel like that watching it, especially in the second half.dixiedean said:
52/48 is overwhelming isn't it?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. L, didn't watch the match but Manchester United and Spurs had almost identical possession (52/48%) yet the former had thrice the shots/shots on target, if memory serves.
Mind you, Arsenal had similar stats and two-thirds possession, so maybe Spurs are just a bit rubbish against top sides.0 -
Is BoJo trying to craft a "could have if I'd really wanted to" plotline?3
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You'll have to explain, if it's a point you want to make, since I can't read Portuguese.TheWhiteRabbit said:
If you read the Portuguese version of that page, you would get a different impression.Benpointer said:
Something else was 52/48 too. Escapes me what.HYUFD said:
It is about 52% Lula 48% Bolsonaro, similar to the margin Biden beat Trump by in 2020Alistair said:
Polling is a lot close in Brazil than I was expecting at this stage.gettingbetter said:The way the market is moving it looks like Rishi is pretty certain to win. It would be nice to get some cash out to pit more on Lula whose odds of 1.72 look very attractive. Strange how the markets always overstate the chances of the populist right.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Brazilian_presidential_election0 -
This Mason chap sounds like a bit of a silly sausage.0
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The BBC sent out a push alert with the ‘news’ too.Tres said:Mason is following the Kuenssberg approach in blindly regurgitating any lines he gets from Johnson rampers. That is a disgrace.
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The Handelsblatt story is slightly more nuanced: the budget for armaments purchases has remained the same, but because of cost of replacement of munitions and inflation, this means that deliveries of new platforms - particularly naval and air force - will need to be slower to fit within allocated costs.DavidL said:
Well, in fairness, what are the chances of another European land war? That would be absurd.CarlottaVance said:BREAKING:
Germany will significantly cut down the expansion of the army due to “high inflation and the expensive dollar”
Several projects will be cancelled or downsized, including:
Puma IFVs
Self-propelled howitzers
Corvettes
Frigates
Eurofighters
potentially F-35s (downsized)
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1583778006803234816
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FPT: Some posters were talking about SLAB numbers in the latest Yougov. As far as I can see the latest Scotland-only yougov poll was from 30th September - 4th October.0
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A reasonably convincing prediction but we are in unstable times. I can convince myself of anything from a big Labour win to a moderate Tory win and hung parliaments in between. Your last point about lack of enthusiasm for Labour is important. A Boris return is a certain disaster for the country and then for the Tories, it even has a a built in markets crisis from day one. If a Sunak government can convince enough electors that Labour would actually be riskier economically then he might win next election.londonpubman said:A reminder.
Rishi will win
Then there will be a GE in 2024 where LAB will probably get a majority say LAB 340 seats CON 220 on something like a 40-34 vote share.
Remember although CON are useless there really isn't much enthusiasm for Keir or LAB.0 -
You do not have to read Portuguese!Benpointer said:
You'll have to explain, if it's a point you want to make, since I can't read Portuguese.TheWhiteRabbit said:
If you read the Portuguese version of that page, you would get a different impression.Benpointer said:
Something else was 52/48 too. Escapes me what.HYUFD said:
It is about 52% Lula 48% Bolsonaro, similar to the margin Biden beat Trump by in 2020Alistair said:
Polling is a lot close in Brazil than I was expecting at this stage.gettingbetter said:The way the market is moving it looks like Rishi is pretty certain to win. It would be nice to get some cash out to pit more on Lula whose odds of 1.72 look very attractive. Strange how the markets always overstate the chances of the populist right.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Brazilian_presidential_election
https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pesquisas_eleitorais_para_a_eleição_presidencial_de_2022_no_Brasil#Segundo_turno
You can see there are polls correctly and/or incorrectly omitted from the English version. The English page was locked to edits as a result.0 -
Hah!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pointer, you're thinking of the Manchester United/Spurs possession stats, which saw Manchester United win the match.
Nice post but, and I know I'll never change you, it would have had more impact with the 'quote' of my post, just saying.0 -
Looks it as well.Morris_Dancer said:This Mason chap sounds like a bit of a silly sausage.
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Has been had nearly as bad as all the moronic Tory MPs publicly backing Boris.....and then some wally at the BBC has hit the push breaking news notification!nico679 said:Utter garbage from Mason . What an embarrassment to even fall for that .
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Yup - that's millions of people, and my non-politics friends are expressing shock/horror on whatsapp.williamglenn said:
The BBC sent out a push alert with the ‘news’ too.Tres said:Mason is following the Kuenssberg approach in blindly regurgitating any lines he gets from Johnson rampers. That is a disgrace.
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The Americans will adopt an auto loader in a tank the day after Hell freezes.Carnyx said:O/T but specially for @Malmesbury and @JosiasJessop in the brief moments of quiescence between the excitements of the cricket - the latest tanknology, this time Which Tank? 2023.
https://www.tanknology.co.uk/post/tanks-of-2022-old-dogs-new-tricks
The Abrams X is a piece of junk - the track damn near vibrates off the rollers in some videos.
The next generation of tanks will probably be incremental until full hybrid power trains are brought into the mix. There’s some interesting work being done on multiple driven wheels per track, rather than a single sprocket wheel.
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I suspect that the Germans are really having trouble not pulling their hair out about the strength of the Euro and there is more than a hint of a dig about the problems that kit being priced in dollars is causing. They did not build one of the great export sectors on the back of a weak currency. They used a hard currency to bear down on costs and push productivity onwards and upwards. They seem increasingly unhappy to me.rcs1000 said:
The Handelsblatt story is slightly more nuanced: the budget for armaments purchases has remained the same, but because of cost of replacement of munitions and inflation, this means that deliveries of new platforms - particularly naval and air force - will need to be slower to fit within allocated costs.DavidL said:
Well, in fairness, what are the chances of another European land war? That would be absurd.CarlottaVance said:BREAKING:
Germany will significantly cut down the expansion of the army due to “high inflation and the expensive dollar”
Several projects will be cancelled or downsized, including:
Puma IFVs
Self-propelled howitzers
Corvettes
Frigates
Eurofighters
potentially F-35s (downsized)
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/15837780068032348160 -
Chris Mason trying to row back now . Too late . The initial report suggested it was confirmed as a 100 backers .0
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And now Kuenssberg is backtracking... https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1583826056339140613?s=20&t=qj6IY_OMO4JuOihv4uoPmAEabhal said:
Yup - that's millions of people, and my non-politics friends are expressing shock/horror on whatsapp.williamglenn said:
The BBC sent out a push alert with the ‘news’ too.Tres said:Mason is following the Kuenssberg approach in blindly regurgitating any lines he gets from Johnson rampers. That is a disgrace.
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What's the issue? He didn't say directly that he had over 100, just that campaign sources believe it to be so. He immediately clarified that some MPs have got in touch saying they believe it to be hogwash.nico679 said:Utter garbage from Mason . What an embarrassment to even fall for that .
Sky and ITV have reported on it too so it's newsworthy even if it is BS.0 -
Matt Chorley
@MattChorley
·
1h
% of the public declarations so far:
Sunak 60%
Johnson 28%
Mordaunt 12%
So of the 142 left to declare, Johnson needs 35% of them to back him *just* to get on the ballot1 -
"Like under 14s playing under 9s....."
Haaland ends his 1-match goal drought0 -
Nah, 55/45 is overwhelming.dixiedean said:
52/48 is overwhelming isn't it?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. L, didn't watch the match but Manchester United and Spurs had almost identical possession (52/48%) yet the former had thrice the shots/shots on target, if memory serves.
Mind you, Arsenal had similar stats and two-thirds possession, so maybe Spurs are just a bit rubbish against top sides.0 -
I've liked him in the role but that was a bit Laura.Morris_Dancer said:This Mason chap sounds like a bit of a silly sausage.
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The concept of "shy Boris backers" seems to go against the evidence of his cheerleaders to date.rottenborough said:Matt Chorley
@MattChorley
·
1h
% of the public declarations so far:
Sunak 60%
Johnson 28%
Mordaunt 12%
So of the 142 left to declare, Johnson needs 35% of them to back him *just* to get on the ballot3 -
Brought him into layable at 3 something again too. If anybody wants to avail.Eabhal said:
Yup - that's millions of people, and my non-politics friends are expressing shock/horror on whatsapp.williamglenn said:
The BBC sent out a push alert with the ‘news’ too.Tres said:Mason is following the Kuenssberg approach in blindly regurgitating any lines he gets from Johnson rampers. That is a disgrace.
0 -
4
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I'm none the wiser. Why don't you just spell out for me what you say is going on - pro-Bolsonaro polls being suppressed or fake polls being added?TheWhiteRabbit said:
You do not have to read Portuguese!Benpointer said:
You'll have to explain, if it's a point you want to make, since I can't read Portuguese.TheWhiteRabbit said:
If you read the Portuguese version of that page, you would get a different impression.Benpointer said:
Something else was 52/48 too. Escapes me what.HYUFD said:
It is about 52% Lula 48% Bolsonaro, similar to the margin Biden beat Trump by in 2020Alistair said:
Polling is a lot close in Brazil than I was expecting at this stage.gettingbetter said:The way the market is moving it looks like Rishi is pretty certain to win. It would be nice to get some cash out to pit more on Lula whose odds of 1.72 look very attractive. Strange how the markets always overstate the chances of the populist right.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Brazilian_presidential_election
https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pesquisas_eleitorais_para_a_eleição_presidencial_de_2022_no_Brasil#Segundo_turno
You can see there are polls correctly and/or incorrectly omitted from the English version. The English page was locked to edits as a result.0 -
What is Rishi Sunak doing? Very odd that he has said NOTHING as things stand. Is he actually going for it?2
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That's almost Trumpian in its viewMaxPB said:CarlottaVance said:BREAKING:
Germany will significantly cut down the expansion of the army due to “high inflation and the expensive dollar”
Several projects will be cancelled or downsized, including:
Puma IFVs
Self-propelled howitzers
Corvettes
Frigates
Eurofighters
potentially F-35s (downsized)
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1583778006803234816
Time for Biden to tell the to get fucked tbh. Having the US, France and the UK provide Germany's national defence should entail a cost to the German taxpayer.
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Those fancy campaign videos need a fair amount of time in the edit suite.FrankBooth said:What is Rishi Sunak doing? Very odd that he has said NOTHING as things stand. Is he actually going for it?
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Timing it for the Sunday newspapers perhaps?FrankBooth said:What is Rishi Sunak doing? Very odd that he has said NOTHING as things stand. Is he actually going for it?
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Chorley appears to be including unnamed Party officials.
His total declarations is 22 higher than the names on Guido' speadsheet.0 -
If Boris gets 100, then Rishi loses - simple as that. Hence he might be taking the reports seriouslyFrankBooth said:What is Rishi Sunak doing? Very odd that he has said NOTHING as things stand. Is he actually going for it?
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The funniest thing is that Johnson's campaign thinks some wavering Tory MPs are so naive they can be tipped to Johnson's camp by this.RH1992 said:
What's the issue? He didn't say directly that he had over 100, just that campaign sources believe it to be so. He immediately clarified that some MPs have got in touch saying they believe it to be hogwash.nico679 said:Utter garbage from Mason . What an embarrassment to even fall for that .
Sky and ITV have reported on it too so it's newsworthy even if it is BS.
On the flip side, if Johnson now ends up with 90 nominations how stupid is he going to look?0 -
Pro-Bolsonaro polls being omitted from the English version, that should be included.Benpointer said:
I'm none the wiser. Why don't you just spell out for me what you say is going on - pro-Bolsonaro polls being suppressed or fake polls being added?TheWhiteRabbit said:
You do not have to read Portuguese!Benpointer said:
You'll have to explain, if it's a point you want to make, since I can't read Portuguese.TheWhiteRabbit said:
If you read the Portuguese version of that page, you would get a different impression.Benpointer said:
Something else was 52/48 too. Escapes me what.HYUFD said:
It is about 52% Lula 48% Bolsonaro, similar to the margin Biden beat Trump by in 2020Alistair said:
Polling is a lot close in Brazil than I was expecting at this stage.gettingbetter said:The way the market is moving it looks like Rishi is pretty certain to win. It would be nice to get some cash out to pit more on Lula whose odds of 1.72 look very attractive. Strange how the markets always overstate the chances of the populist right.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Brazilian_presidential_election
https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pesquisas_eleitorais_para_a_eleição_presidencial_de_2022_no_Brasil#Segundo_turno
You can see there are polls correctly and/or incorrectly omitted from the English version. The English page was locked to edits as a result.
There may be some concerns over methodology, but they still happened. They're also more helpful for tracking the recent change.
For example, Futura have followed up their 0.4% lead for Lula with a poll showing 1% lead for Bolsonaro. One appears in the English language version and the other doesn't.
1 -
The media seem to be pushing this line. I don’t think the membership vote is as clear cut as they suggest .TheKitchenCabinet said:
If Boris gets 100, then Rishi loses - simple as that. Hence he might be taking the reports seriouslyFrankBooth said:What is Rishi Sunak doing? Very odd that he has said NOTHING as things stand. Is he actually going for it?
3 -
On the last couple of polls the Tories get Zero seats according to Baxter calculation. Even South Holland where no-one at all ever votes Labour There was one a few days ago which saved South Holland alone, leaving John Hayes looking a little isolated. The village of Algarkirk however is in Boston constituency which fell to the reds a week or two back. This is eastern Europe 1945 time.NorthofStoke said:
A reasonably convincing prediction but we are in unstable times. I can convince myself of anything from a big Labour win to a moderate Tory win and hung parliaments in between. Your last point about lack of enthusiasm for Labour is important. A Boris return is a certain disaster for the country and then for the Tories, it even has a a built in markets crisis from day one. If a Sunak government can convince enough electors that Labour would actually be riskier economically then he might win next election.londonpubman said:A reminder.
Rishi will win
Then there will be a GE in 2024 where LAB will probably get a majority say LAB 340 seats CON 220 on something like a 40-34 vote share.
Remember although CON are useless there really isn't much enthusiasm for Keir or LAB.
0 -
Issue is that the BBC has been ramping the Johnson return narrative for the past few days.RH1992 said:
What's the issue? He didn't say directly that he had over 100, just that campaign sources believe it to be so. He immediately clarified that some MPs have got in touch saying they believe it to be hogwash.nico679 said:Utter garbage from Mason . What an embarrassment to even fall for that .
Sky and ITV have reported on it too so it's newsworthy even if it is BS.1 -
No this does not follow and it certainly isn't simple.TheKitchenCabinet said:
If Boris gets 100, then Rishi loses - simple as that. Hence he might be taking the reports seriouslyFrankBooth said:What is Rishi Sunak doing? Very odd that he has said NOTHING as things stand. Is he actually going for it?
It is inconceivable for Johnson to go ahead and lead the party with a huge number of his MPs opposing his leadership.
We've been through all this with Liz Truss.0 -
And other outlets tbf.Tres said:
Issue is that the BBC has been ramping the Johnson return narrative for the past few days.RH1992 said:
What's the issue? He didn't say directly that he had over 100, just that campaign sources believe it to be so. He immediately clarified that some MPs have got in touch saying they believe it to be hogwash.nico679 said:Utter garbage from Mason . What an embarrassment to even fall for that .
Sky and ITV have reported on it too so it's newsworthy even if it is BS.0 -
I think we’re all so tetchy about the Johnson “comeback” potential, that news is designed to spook peoplewilliamglenn said:
The BBC sent out a push alert with the ‘news’ too.Tres said:Mason is following the Kuenssberg approach in blindly regurgitating any lines he gets from Johnson rampers. That is a disgrace.
0 -
Should that happen after all this bluster and confidence in flying home I don't think I'd be able to stop laughing until after Rishi has been to see HM The King.Benpointer said:
The funniest thing is that Johnson's campaign thinks some wavering Tory MPs are so naive they can be tipped to Johnson's camp by this.RH1992 said:
What's the issue? He didn't say directly that he had over 100, just that campaign sources believe it to be so. He immediately clarified that some MPs have got in touch saying they believe it to be hogwash.nico679 said:Utter garbage from Mason . What an embarrassment to even fall for that .
Sky and ITV have reported on it too so it's newsworthy even if it is BS.
On the flip side, if Johnson now ends up with 90 nominations how stupid is he going to look?2 -
Bottom line is that Boris has today added three named MPs.
And he now needs 45 more.
Rishi has today added 20 named MPs.1 -
Let’s hope they’re here to Stop The Nukes
https://twitter.com/todayshow/status/1583429043785170944?s=46&t=rC_Ya7B1FhoOPB6oGPjBvg
“From skies over Missouri to above the Pacific Ocean, commercial airline pilots have recently captured videos that depict unidentified aerial phenomena across the U.S.
@GadiNBC reports on the possible otherworldly sightings.”0 -
Yeah that's my point here. Chris Mason didn't do anything other broadcasters aren't also doing and I've been pretty impressed with him since he became political editor.kinabalu said:
And other outlets tbf.Tres said:
Issue is that the BBC has been ramping the Johnson return narrative for the past few days.RH1992 said:
What's the issue? He didn't say directly that he had over 100, just that campaign sources believe it to be so. He immediately clarified that some MPs have got in touch saying they believe it to be hogwash.nico679 said:Utter garbage from Mason . What an embarrassment to even fall for that .
Sky and ITV have reported on it too so it's newsworthy even if it is BS.
The push notification was a bit stupid but Sky did it as well and LBC just sent a badly worded one suggesting it's confirmed Boris has over 100.1 -
"Scepticism on real extent of Johnson's support
Chris Mason
Within moments of those around Boris Johnson claiming they have hit the threshold of 100 MPs backing the former prime minister, scepticism from other Conservative MPs.
"Hogwash", "absolute garbage", "clearly nonsense" are among the phrases being used.
Why?
Well, the publicly-declared number of backers is much, much lower and — bluntly — his track record when it comes to truth is patchy."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-633382611 -
Presumably
Or waiting for the Johnson “move”Heathener said:
Timing it for the Sunday newspapers perhaps?FrankBooth said:What is Rishi Sunak doing? Very odd that he has said NOTHING as things stand. Is he actually going for it?
If I were Rishi, I’d be tempted to say sod it and say I’m not running if Johnson said he’ll enter. But then no idea what happens then - I guess the party would be left with choice of Penny or coalescing around Boris0 -
According to a Blair Institute poll last week, just 7% of Conservative voters, 37% of Labour voters and 47% of LD voters want to rejoin the full EU.Benpointer said:
Happening as we speakStillWaters said:Fpt @Cicero
You’re missing the pointCicero said:
"When the facts change we change our minds, what do you do sir?" Brexit is already deeply unpopular.StillWaters said:
So basically to try and do an end runaround the decision of the people to leave the EU?Foxy said:
Yes, that is pretty much LD policy, to serially rejoin individual European bodies, thereby reducing red tape. Expanding pan European Co-operation on climate, energy and diplomacy. To salami slice away Brexit until only a stump is left. At that point formal Rejoin becomes the obvious and popular thing to do.MJW said:
Hell of an epic fail to be 40 points ahead in the polls, regardless of the Tories woes. And it's right. Look I'd like to rejoin, and if there were a magic wand that would make 2016 disappear I'd wave it, but the practicalities of rejoining would reopen a fissure that would give the Tories a lifeline and suck up an awful lot of time and energy at a time when it's needed on other issues. Rejoining is also liable to take a lot of behind closed doors diplomacy before you announce anything, as otherwise you're liable for it to be cast as the worst possible deal that people will dislike - and you probably have to have another toxic referendum. He's been smartly vague, and we really do need to unpick Johnson's awful deal, design something that sits closer to membership, rejoin EU bodies and repair much of the immense damage before we formally rejoin. It's so dire it's a long-term repair job first, before we think about returning. Plus, the way things are going, Brexit is only getting less popular so you can afford to allow that to play out before giving in to public demand if it occurs.StuartDickson said:
Over two-thirds of Scots want to rejoin the EUSouthamObserver said:
Thinking Brexit was a mistake and wanting to spend huge amounts of time and energy on negotiating the UK’s re-entry are two very different things. My guess is that most people are far keener on a much better relationship with the EU than they are about rejoining, which is exactly where Starmer is. There is certainly space to go further, though, as whoever ends up leading the Tories cannot begin to accept the Brexit deal Johnson negotiated was awful.StuartDickson said:Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger
https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w
Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
Again.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20681698.two-thirds-scots-want-rejoin-eu/
And that was in August. The UK-wide data indicates that things have swung even more to the pro-Europe side since then.
Starmer has made some appalling strategic choices, and being pro-Brexit is one of the biggest. An epic fail.
@Foxy suggestion was to rejoin individual bodies to de facto reverse the Brexit decision. That’s anti-democratic.
If you think that Brexit is a bad idea, which is a arguable position, then campaign for a Rejoin referendum and secure democratic consent
Even rejoining the single market only gets a majority amongst LD voters of the GB wide parties
https://institute.global/policy/moving-how-british-public-views-brexit-and-what-it-wants-future-relationship-european-union0 -
What happens is every journo is so desperate to be the one with the breaking news they go with things they shouldn't without more checking....they blurt it out on twitter & within seconds every other media outlet just repeats the claim because a blue checkmark is the source.RH1992 said:
Yeah that's my point here. Chris Mason didn't do anything other broadcasters aren't also doing and I've been pretty impressed with him since he became political editor.kinabalu said:
And other outlets tbf.Tres said:
Issue is that the BBC has been ramping the Johnson return narrative for the past few days.RH1992 said:
What's the issue? He didn't say directly that he had over 100, just that campaign sources believe it to be so. He immediately clarified that some MPs have got in touch saying they believe it to be hogwash.nico679 said:Utter garbage from Mason . What an embarrassment to even fall for that .
Sky and ITV have reported on it too so it's newsworthy even if it is BS.
The push notification was a bit stupid but Sky did it as well and LBC just sent a badly worded one suggesting it's confirmed Boris has over 100.0 -
Anecdote alert.
Mrs P. and I having a quiet coffee in the rather deserted Waitrose cafe this morning when we overheard the two 20-something women behind the serving counter discussing politics:
- "...after 12 years of the Conservatives it time they pissed off and let someone else have a go."
- "Yeah, quite agree..."
Never heard politics being discussed in such a situation before. Sea change.1 -
Looked too keen last time. The target vibe now is "answering the call".FrankBooth said:What is Rishi Sunak doing? Very odd that he has said NOTHING as things stand. Is he actually going for it?
Of duty, I mean, not nature.1 -
Brazil is 52/48 according to the Economist's poll tracker.
https://www.economist.com/interactive/brazil-20221 -
I have no doubt that's true. But give it time HY, give it time ;-)HYUFD said:
According to a Blair Institute poll last week, just 7% of Conservative voters, 37% of Labour voters and 47% of LD voters want to rejoin the full EU.Benpointer said:
Happening as we speakStillWaters said:Fpt @Cicero
You’re missing the pointCicero said:
"When the facts change we change our minds, what do you do sir?" Brexit is already deeply unpopular.StillWaters said:
So basically to try and do an end runaround the decision of the people to leave the EU?Foxy said:
Yes, that is pretty much LD policy, to serially rejoin individual European bodies, thereby reducing red tape. Expanding pan European Co-operation on climate, energy and diplomacy. To salami slice away Brexit until only a stump is left. At that point formal Rejoin becomes the obvious and popular thing to do.MJW said:
Hell of an epic fail to be 40 points ahead in the polls, regardless of the Tories woes. And it's right. Look I'd like to rejoin, and if there were a magic wand that would make 2016 disappear I'd wave it, but the practicalities of rejoining would reopen a fissure that would give the Tories a lifeline and suck up an awful lot of time and energy at a time when it's needed on other issues. Rejoining is also liable to take a lot of behind closed doors diplomacy before you announce anything, as otherwise you're liable for it to be cast as the worst possible deal that people will dislike - and you probably have to have another toxic referendum. He's been smartly vague, and we really do need to unpick Johnson's awful deal, design something that sits closer to membership, rejoin EU bodies and repair much of the immense damage before we formally rejoin. It's so dire it's a long-term repair job first, before we think about returning. Plus, the way things are going, Brexit is only getting less popular so you can afford to allow that to play out before giving in to public demand if it occurs.StuartDickson said:
Over two-thirds of Scots want to rejoin the EUSouthamObserver said:
Thinking Brexit was a mistake and wanting to spend huge amounts of time and energy on negotiating the UK’s re-entry are two very different things. My guess is that most people are far keener on a much better relationship with the EU than they are about rejoining, which is exactly where Starmer is. There is certainly space to go further, though, as whoever ends up leading the Tories cannot begin to accept the Brexit deal Johnson negotiated was awful.StuartDickson said:Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger
https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w
Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
Again.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20681698.two-thirds-scots-want-rejoin-eu/
And that was in August. The UK-wide data indicates that things have swung even more to the pro-Europe side since then.
Starmer has made some appalling strategic choices, and being pro-Brexit is one of the biggest. An epic fail.
@Foxy suggestion was to rejoin individual bodies to de facto reverse the Brexit decision. That’s anti-democratic.
If you think that Brexit is a bad idea, which is a arguable position, then campaign for a Rejoin referendum and secure democratic consent
Even rejoining the single market only gets a majority amongst LD voters of the GB wide parties
https://institute.global/policy/moving-how-british-public-views-brexit-and-what-it-wants-future-relationship-european-union1 -
Three months ago he couldn't continue to form a Cabinet nor a functioning ministry.Heathener said:
No this does not follow and it certainly isn't simple.TheKitchenCabinet said:
If Boris gets 100, then Rishi loses - simple as that. Hence he might be taking the reports seriouslyFrankBooth said:What is Rishi Sunak doing? Very odd that he has said NOTHING as things stand. Is he actually going for it?
It is inconceivable for Johnson to go ahead and lead the party with a huge number of his MPs opposing his leadership.
We've been through all this with Liz Truss.
It is beyond satire that the members are about to ask him to have another go.
Just weeks before the committee meets to effectively decide on impeachment proceedings.
The Tory party is utterly broken as the "natural party of government" this weekend.
2 -
Why on earth would he do that?Razedabode said:Presumably
Or waiting for the Johnson “move”Heathener said:
Timing it for the Sunday newspapers perhaps?FrankBooth said:What is Rishi Sunak doing? Very odd that he has said NOTHING as things stand. Is he actually going for it?
If I were Rishi, I’d be tempted to say sod it and say I’m not running if Johnson said he’ll enter. But then no idea what happens then - I guess the party would be left with choice of Penny or coalescing around Boris0 -
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1583824962904674304
So who are your 100 backers?
“You wouldn’t know them, they go to another school”
5 -
Of course the media are going to push the Johnson narrative. They love a crisis. They thrive on a crisis. They know Johnson would give them weeks of standing in Downing Street as the next drama plays out.
I have long since given up on UK news media4 -
Jay from the Inbetweeners comes to mind.....ohnotnow said:https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1583824962904674304
So who are your 100 backers?
“You wouldn’t know them, they go to another school”0 -
In a nutshell:
David Henig 🇺🇦
@DavidHenigUK
·
4h
Replying to
@DavidHenigUK
And we're expected to have respect for the people who wanted to keep a liar in office, then switched to supporting a PM so bad she broke records for unpopularity in her short time in office, and now want to go back to the liar?
https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/15837575502807941123 -
Just a minor slip. So long as it doesn't become the norm (as it kind of was with Laura). I also think he's good.RH1992 said:
Yeah that's my point here. Chris Mason didn't do anything other broadcasters aren't also doing and I've been pretty impressed with him since he became political editor.kinabalu said:
And other outlets tbf.Tres said:
Issue is that the BBC has been ramping the Johnson return narrative for the past few days.RH1992 said:
What's the issue? He didn't say directly that he had over 100, just that campaign sources believe it to be so. He immediately clarified that some MPs have got in touch saying they believe it to be hogwash.nico679 said:Utter garbage from Mason . What an embarrassment to even fall for that .
Sky and ITV have reported on it too so it's newsworthy even if it is BS.
The push notification was a bit stupid but Sky did it as well and LBC just sent a badly worded one suggesting it's confirmed Boris has over 100.0 -
How many of the ERG have declared?0
-
Perhaps surprising to some but I would agree with that. Obviously I always wanted us to be in EFTA/EEA anyway. My objection to the EU was and is that it can pass laws over which our Parliament has no say and which can be decided and enforced without our consent. That is not the case for the EFTA members of the EEA where the countries always have a choice on whether to accept new rules without having to undertake the nuclear option of leaving the organisation as a whole.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, Brexit was all about parliamentary sovereignty, if a party campaign on a manifesto commitment to rejoin the single market and they win a majority then that is the will of the people.StillWaters said:Fpt @Cicero
You’re missing the pointCicero said:
"When the facts change we change our minds, what do you do sir?" Brexit is already deeply unpopular.StillWaters said:
So basically to try and do an end runaround the decision of the people to leave the EU?Foxy said:
Yes, that is pretty much LD policy, to serially rejoin individual European bodies, thereby reducing red tape. Expanding pan European Co-operation on climate, energy and diplomacy. To salami slice away Brexit until only a stump is left. At that point formal Rejoin becomes the obvious and popular thing to do.MJW said:
Hell of an epic fail to be 40 points ahead in the polls, regardless of the Tories woes. And it's right. Look I'd like to rejoin, and if there were a magic wand that would make 2016 disappear I'd wave it, but the practicalities of rejoining would reopen a fissure that would give the Tories a lifeline and suck up an awful lot of time and energy at a time when it's needed on other issues. Rejoining is also liable to take a lot of behind closed doors diplomacy before you announce anything, as otherwise you're liable for it to be cast as the worst possible deal that people will dislike - and you probably have to have another toxic referendum. He's been smartly vague, and we really do need to unpick Johnson's awful deal, design something that sits closer to membership, rejoin EU bodies and repair much of the immense damage before we formally rejoin. It's so dire it's a long-term repair job first, before we think about returning. Plus, the way things are going, Brexit is only getting less popular so you can afford to allow that to play out before giving in to public demand if it occurs.StuartDickson said:
Over two-thirds of Scots want to rejoin the EUSouthamObserver said:
Thinking Brexit was a mistake and wanting to spend huge amounts of time and energy on negotiating the UK’s re-entry are two very different things. My guess is that most people are far keener on a much better relationship with the EU than they are about rejoining, which is exactly where Starmer is. There is certainly space to go further, though, as whoever ends up leading the Tories cannot begin to accept the Brexit deal Johnson negotiated was awful.StuartDickson said:Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger
https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/1582292972221390850?s=46&t=7FGxXGIQZTvH8YW0p5eX4w
Keir Starmer finds himself on the wrong side.
Again.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20681698.two-thirds-scots-want-rejoin-eu/
And that was in August. The UK-wide data indicates that things have swung even more to the pro-Europe side since then.
Starmer has made some appalling strategic choices, and being pro-Brexit is one of the biggest. An epic fail.
@Foxy suggestion was to rejoin individual bodies to de facto reverse the Brexit decision. That’s anti-democratic.
If you think that Brexit is a bad idea, which is a arguable position, then campaign for a Rejoin referendum and secure democratic consent
For that reason it is far more akin to a normal set of trade agreements or membership of NATO. That means it does not have constitutional implications and so I have no issue with a party campaigning for it and receiving a mandate via a GE. Rejoining the EU with QMV and ECJ decisions does have severe constitutional implications and as such would, for me, need another referendum.3 -
Yes it's like we're being trolled. Which we are really. Ok, a betting opp, but on another level it's a teeny bit annoying.Razedabode said:
I think we’re all so tetchy about the Johnson “comeback” potential, that news is designed to spook peoplewilliamglenn said:
The BBC sent out a push alert with the ‘news’ too.Tres said:Mason is following the Kuenssberg approach in blindly regurgitating any lines he gets from Johnson rampers. That is a disgrace.
0 -
Haven't seen much on here about the YouGov poll of Con Party members where:
45% of members supported having a members vote on the Final 2
50% of members opposed having a members vote on the Final 2
5% Don't Know
Now in theory the 50% who oppose a members vote should all back whoever comes first in MPs vote.
Of course it won't work like that but if even 20% feel that way and vote for the MPs winner irrespective of their own preference then Sunak would surely be guaranteed to win.
(Boris would need to win those voting with their own view 50/30)
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/s6ccng5vvk/Internal_ConMembers_Oct2022_w.pdf2 -
The polls seem to have Lula's support pegged pretty well but not Bolsonaro's. So, who knows?Andy_JS said:Brazil is 52/48 according to the Economist's poll tracker.
https://www.economist.com/interactive/brazil-20220 -
120% of them - for Johnson.FrankBooth said:How many of the ERG have declared?
1 -
This whole thing shows how Starmer has been underrated. Taking control of a party from an opposing faction, where the MPs are mostly pointing one way and the members mostly another, is quite a feat. The Tories don't appear at the moment to have someone capable of doing the same.5
-
From a quick look at the Premiership table, it seems to me that the Midlands is going to be relegated this season.0
-
The aliens are also pursuing one particular guy around the backstreets of Plymouth. And Plymouth, of course, has nuclear submarines. Say no more
“A Plymouth man has described the "freaky" moment he saw aliens following him down Mutley Plain. The man, who has asked to remain anonymous, says the incident left him so scared he ran all the way home.
The anonymous man says his first encounter with possible extra-terrestrial life came in July of this year. Since then he says they have appeared quite regularly to him and his friends.
Describing his encounter, he said: "I've seen it loads of times and it actually followed me home. I know that sounds absolutely mental but I was the Hoe and it followed me all the way up North Hill, along Mutley, and to Peverell.”
https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/plymouth-news/plymouth-man-legged-home-after-77264320 -
Rishi has gone from 1.44 to 1.25 in literally last 30 seconds.0
-
Boris has had a shocker of a day, if he wasn't Boris we'd be saying this was all over.MikeL said:Rishi has gone from 1.44 to 1.25 in literally last 30 seconds.
2 -
Sunak has 117 named supporters according to Guido.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PRufWhh2YAoxPUJEXeVaEOe7rcT1IINOXijeLI6o9Cc/htmlview?pru=AAABhCQ0q-E*W8KUIU5NAPSORuCrQidxDA#0 -
I think we will see a Sunday piece on 'why im not running for the sake of unity and the party' by one St Boris of Uxbridge6
-
Thanks for posting . It does highlight the view that the slam dunk for Johnson in the membership is wrong .MikeL said:Haven't seen much on here about the YouGov poll of Con Party members where:
45% of members supported having a members vote on the Final 2
50% of members opposed having a members vote on the Final 2
5% Don't Know
Now in theory the 50% who oppose a members vote should all back whoever comes first in MPs vote.
Of course it won't work like that but if even 20% feel that way and vote for the MPs winner irrespective of their own preference then Sunak would surely be guaranteed to win.
(Boris would need to win those voting with their own view 50/30)
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/s6ccng5vvk/Internal_ConMembers_Oct2022_w.pdf1 -
If he comes out in support of Penny Mordaunt the contest could get interesting.wooliedyed said:I think we will see a Sunday piece on 'why im not running for the sake of unity and the party' by one St Boris of Uxbridge
0 -
Im not sure 'cracking knockers, Morders' is an endorsement thoughAndy_JS said:
If he comes out in support of Penny Mordaunt the contest could get interesting.wooliedyed said:I think we will see a Sunday piece on 'why im not running for the sake of unity and the party' by one St Boris of Uxbridge
7 -
I presume he wrote two pieces on the plane back.....wooliedyed said:I think we will see a Sunday piece on 'why im not running for the sake of unity and the party' by one St Boris of Uxbridge
7 -
Perhaps he'll introduce Rishi at his campaign launch.wooliedyed said:I think we will see a Sunday piece on 'why im not running for the sake of unity and the party' by one St Boris of Uxbridge
1 -
America's descent into fascism part 48:
https://twitter.com/jonathanchait/status/1583791486348713984?t=BIpa2FWMXQ3SdCkOwEAx8g&s=19
Election workers quiting in fear of their life.1 -
If hes playing the Long Game, surewilliamglenn said:
Perhaps he'll introduce Rishi at his campaign launch.wooliedyed said:I think we will see a Sunday piece on 'why im not running for the sake of unity and the party' by one St Boris of Uxbridge
0
