As an aside, not certain but if the fool does become PM again I'm thinking Lib Dem is perhaps my likeliest vote, as they have (I'll check if I go that way) neither far left fruitcakes nor utterly lunatic Johnsons.
Labour not impossible, though I'm concerned about how much of the far left remains.
As for the Conservatives: if they elect Boris Johnson then unless Labour get led by a far left maniac again, I'm not voting for them.
I never thought I'd see the day that you would consider voting Labour.
I think Brady has fucked this process. With the current state of the Party it all but guarantees two big, adversarial blocs. Add in the potential for disharmony between members and MPs and it all adds up to yet another PM who won't long be able to command the confidence of the House.
There isn't a process that can fix the divided state of the party.
🚨LATEST POLLING🚨 Overnight we ran three head-to-heads between the most likely Conservative leadership candidates. The results were:
> Sunak 45% vs 23% for Mordaunt > Sunak 44% vs 31% for Johnson > Mordaunt 36% vs 33% for Johnson
But they didn't poll fuckwit Tory MPs.....
If Johnson gets the nod he will be swimming against the current all the way to January 2025. Can you please encourage your party to select that very small grown-up, Mr Sunak, rather than the enormous child, Bunter?
We really don't need this f***** trashing our nation any more than he already has done.
@BBCBreakfast 'If you are watching Boris your country needs you'
Fishmonger Steve Waters who works at Birmingham Indoor Market told #BBCBreakfast his customers want Boris Johnson to replace Liz Truss as Prime Minister
I saw him this morning on BBC Breakfast. He was weird. There's a certain type of man who loves Boris. Their love for him, it seems, makes them feel strong, like they're in on something that no one else can see. This strange para-social relationship they seem to have with him, doubly odd because the man himself is not particularly accessible, is very strange. There's a PhD in psychology for someone here.
A cynic would wonde rto what degree his customers keep him happy so as to make sure that they get cod rather than huss for dinner. Or indeed self-select after the first encounter. One thing about indoor markets - there are usually several of each kind of shop to choose from.
🚨LATEST POLLING🚨 Overnight we ran three head-to-heads between the most likely Conservative leadership candidates. The results were:
> Sunak 45% vs 23% for Mordaunt > Sunak 44% vs 31% for Johnson > Mordaunt 36% vs 33% for Johnson
Edit: To clarify, a poll of the general public, not party members
It demonstrates that Mordaunt, hardly well known by the populace, is still seen as a better option than the disgraced former PM. So much for his ability to turn things around. I hope MPs have seen this
However how many of those who prefer Sunak to Johnson or Mordaunt would vote for Starmer over all of them.
The consensus amongst my circle, including people who normally vote Tory or don't discuss politics in public, is the Conservatives are out of road. They should call an election and let Labour have a go at government.
This nonsense is not playing well with normal people.
I think one way or another we're heading for an election and a Labour government before too much longer.
I’m not saying it’s likely. But have you considered the possibility that Boris keeps the show on the road until next spring, gets a bounce from helping beat Putin and then bags another majority with the new boundaries helping him across the line?
Anything is possible but I think the most likely scenario is that whoever becomes PM (either Boris and Rishi) the party splits into rival factions and the government collapses paving the way for another winter general election which Labour wins... However, I'm not buying the polls putting Labour 30% ahead and I think they win with a very small majority or no majority at all...
Then as they attempt to govern with barely a majority, no money and economic crisis rocking the UK and global economy their government too quickly proceeds to fall apart...
We're in for a rough decade.
2020s = 1970s!
Oh and on top of all of that I still think King Charles III turns out to be a terrible monarch and at some point in the decade we have a constitutional/monarchy crisis as well...
In the decade?! Within a calendar month from now, more like!
What do PB’ers make of the keir Starmer for next pm gamble? I’m in quite deep at ~130/1
I think the likelihood is greater than 1%, but less than 10%.
Likelihood of widespread media speculation in the coming days is far higher, which will feed into the odds.
It’s a classic “false market?” gamble for those with money to throw away.
Political betting at its finest.
I can’t see how Starmer becomes PM next. When Truss resigns she will recommend a name to the King. That name will not be Starmer. It will be the next Tory leader. That name will become PM. If they cannot command a majority there will be a GE, but they will be PM in the interim.
They don't get the gig in the first place if they cannot command a maj.
No, the recommendation is who Truss feels is best placed to form a majority. They then become PM and get a go at it. Not the other way around.
1. She might advise there is no-one who can form a majority and therefore there should be a GE.
2. She might not make a recommendation.
3. He might seek recommendations elsewhere. (That's what his mother did in 1963. Macmillan advised her, but he wasn't the only one.)
4. As sh*tshow develops into sh*tshow squared, he could say there's going to be a GE whether any of you f*cking politicians like it or not and then "invite" her to stay on as caretaker in the interim. (Perhaps he'll wonder "How would Uncle Louis have handled this?" 🙂 )
5. Other sh*t might happen too, e.g. the parliamentary Tory party could sunder. Or other sh*t that few have thought of.
Alice: "So much is cracking that I think there's a good chance a black swan might appear." Bob: "You're an idiot! You can't even prove such a swan would even have a feasible flightpath!"
@BBCBreakfast 'If you are watching Boris your country needs you'
Fishmonger Steve Waters who works at Birmingham Indoor Market told #BBCBreakfast his customers want Boris Johnson to replace Liz Truss as Prime Minister
I think Brady has fucked this process. With the current state of the Party it all but guarantees two big, adversarial blocs. Add in the potential for disharmony between members and MPs and it all adds up to yet another PM who won't long be able to command the confidence of the House.
Realistically, what is his alternative?
The ideal for him is that everyone unites around one candidate and it's a coronation. But, given that isn't going to happen, there's going to be a visible split. The "big, adversarial blocs" aren't a reflection of the process but of reality.
ISTM that they had a spreadsheet and expected that the clown wouldn’t make the hundred.
Still a possibility, of course, once Guido drops all his fake entries. Even the parliamentary Tory party only has so many nutters.
That is what I hope and pray for. I guess one has to calculate how many MPs think they would realistically get a government job in The Clown's circus of losers but might not under a more sensible regime.
The consensus amongst my circle, including people who normally vote Tory or don't discuss politics in public, is the Conservatives are out of road. They should call an election and let Labour have a go at government.
This nonsense is not playing well with normal people.
I think one way or another we're heading for an election and a Labour government before too much longer.
I’m not saying it’s likely. But have you considered the possibility that Boris keeps the show on the road until next spring, gets a bounce from helping beat Putin and then bags another majority with the new boundaries helping him across the line?
Anything is possible but I think the most likely scenario is that whoever becomes PM (either Boris and Rishi) the party splits into rival factions and the government collapses paving the way for another winter general election which Labour wins... However, I'm not buying the polls putting Labour 30% ahead and I think they win with a very small majority or no majority at all...
Then as they attempt to govern with barely a majority, no money and economic crisis rocking the UK and global economy their government too quickly proceeds to fall apart...
We're in for a rough decade.
2020s = 1970s!
Oh and on top of all of that I still think King Charles III turns out to be a terrible monarch and at some point in the decade we have a constitutional/monarchy crisis as well...
On what grounds? He has done an excellent job so far and already outlasted his first PM.
LOL!
I am sorry but it is true. Charles was the republicans best hope for ending the monarchy, yet he has already taken over as King and acted with dignity after his mother's death, visited all 4 home nations and their leaders and been a far better focus for national unity than his own government.
I saw him this morning on BBC Breakfast. He was weird. There's a certain type of man who loves Boris. Their love for him, it seems, makes them feel strong, like they're in on something that no one else can see. This strange para-social relationship they seem to have with him, doubly odd because the man himself is not particularly accessible, is very strange. There's a PhD in psychology for someone here.
BoZo is popular for the same reasons as Jimmy Saville
@BBCBreakfast 'If you are watching Boris your country needs you'
Fishmonger Steve Waters who works at Birmingham Indoor Market told #BBCBreakfast his customers want Boris Johnson to replace Liz Truss as Prime Minister
I saw him this morning on BBC Breakfast. He was weird. There's a certain type of man who loves Boris. Their love for him, it seems, makes them feel strong, like they're in on something that no one else can see. This strange para-social relationship they seem to have with him, doubly odd because the man himself is not particularly accessible, is very strange. There's a PhD in psychology for someone here.
A cynic would wonde rto what degree his customers keep him happy so as to make sure that they get cod rather than huss for dinner. Or indeed self-select after the first encounter. One thing about indoor markets - there are usually several of each kind of shop to choose from.
I rather like the idea of an indoor market with a Boris-supporting fishmonger, a Mordaunt-supporting one, and a Rishi-supporting one.
The consensus amongst my circle, including people who normally vote Tory or don't discuss politics in public, is the Conservatives are out of road. They should call an election and let Labour have a go at government.
This nonsense is not playing well with normal people.
I think one way or another we're heading for an election and a Labour government before too much longer.
I’m not saying it’s likely. But have you considered the possibility that Boris keeps the show on the road until next spring, gets a bounce from helping beat Putin and then bags another majority with the new boundaries helping him across the line?
Anything is possible but I think the most likely scenario is that whoever becomes PM (either Boris and Rishi) the party splits into rival factions and the government collapses paving the way for another winter general election which Labour wins... However, I'm not buying the polls putting Labour 30% ahead and I think they win with a very small majority or no majority at all...
Then as they attempt to govern with barely a majority, no money and economic crisis rocking the UK and global economy their government too quickly proceeds to fall apart...
We're in for a rough decade.
2020s = 1970s!
Oh and on top of all of that I still think King Charles III turns out to be a terrible monarch and at some point in the decade we have a constitutional/monarchy crisis as well...
On what grounds? He has done an excellent job so far and already outlasted his first PM.
LOL!
I am sorry but it is true. Charles was the republicans best hope for ending the monarchy, yet he has already taken over as King and acted with dignity after his mother's death, visited all 4 home nations and their leaders and been a far better focus for national unity than his own government.
You made me laugh when you said he's "already outlasted his first Prime Minister".
I think Brady has fucked this process. With the current state of the Party it all but guarantees two big, adversarial blocs. Add in the potential for disharmony between members and MPs and it all adds up to yet another PM who won't long be able to command the confidence of the House.
There isn't a process that can fix the divided state of the party.
Might turn out the enormous nom threshold has actually sunk the one candidate that could have managed it though - Mordaunt.
@BBCBreakfast 'If you are watching Boris your country needs you'
Fishmonger Steve Waters who works at Birmingham Indoor Market told #BBCBreakfast his customers want Boris Johnson to replace Liz Truss as Prime Minister
I saw him this morning on BBC Breakfast. He was weird. There's a certain type of man who loves Boris. Their love for him, it seems, makes them feel strong, like they're in on something that no one else can see. This strange para-social relationship they seem to have with him, doubly odd because the man himself is not particularly accessible, is very strange. There's a PhD in psychology for someone here.
A cynic would wonde rto what degree his customers keep him happy so as to make sure that they get cod rather than huss for dinner. Or indeed self-select after the first encounter. One thing about indoor markets - there are usually several of each kind of shop to choose from.
I rather like the idea of an indoor market with a Boris-supporting fishmonger, a Mordaunt-supporting one, and a Rishi-supporting one.
Guido's spreadsheet shows unnamed MPs who are Party Officers (so can't publicly declare their support) supporting candidates as follows:
Boris - 17 Penny - 2 Rishi - 1
Two questions:
1) How many MPs are Party Officers in total?
2) If Boris has the support of the vast majority of Party Officers, why did they make the rule that 100 nominations are needed which may prevent Boris standing?
Guido is bullshitting
Guido, the Telegraph, the Mail and the Express are going to print no end of lies over the next couple of days to try to get Johnson over the line.
The Mail can print joyfull headlines that the mini-budget was the first really Tory budget in 45 years and turn on it and destroy its authors a week or two later without batting an eye lid.
Sadly a healthy democracy needs an electorate that makes an effort to understand the issues and think for themselves otherwise they are just prey to unscrupulous politicians of left and right leading them by the nose. They say people get the governments they deserve and that has never been truer than it is today and on that happy note I think Johnson will become PM again and will end up as big a disaster as last time.
I saw him this morning on BBC Breakfast. He was weird. There's a certain type of man who loves Boris. Their love for him, it seems, makes them feel strong, like they're in on something that no one else can see. This strange para-social relationship they seem to have with him, doubly odd because the man himself is not particularly accessible, is very strange. There's a PhD in psychology for someone here.
BoZo is popular for the same reasons as Jimmy Saville
@BBCBreakfast 'If you are watching Boris your country needs you'
Fishmonger Steve Waters who works at Birmingham Indoor Market told #BBCBreakfast his customers want Boris Johnson to replace Liz Truss as Prime Minister
I saw him this morning on BBC Breakfast. He was weird. There's a certain type of man who loves Boris. Their love for him, it seems, makes them feel strong, like they're in on something that no one else can see. This strange para-social relationship they seem to have with him, doubly odd because the man himself is not particularly accessible, is very strange. There's a PhD in psychology for someone here.
A cynic would wonde rto what degree his customers keep him happy so as to make sure that they get cod rather than huss for dinner. Or indeed self-select after the first encounter. One thing about indoor markets - there are usually several of each kind of shop to choose from.
I rather like the idea of an indoor market with a Boris-supporting fishmonger, a Mordaunt-supporting one, and a Rishi-supporting one.
@BBCBreakfast 'If you are watching Boris your country needs you'
Fishmonger Steve Waters who works at Birmingham Indoor Market told #BBCBreakfast his customers want Boris Johnson to replace Liz Truss as Prime Minister
I saw him this morning on BBC Breakfast. He was weird. There's a certain type of man who loves Boris. Their love for him, it seems, makes them feel strong, like they're in on something that no one else can see. This strange para-social relationship they seem to have with him, doubly odd because the man himself is not particularly accessible, is very strange. There's a PhD in psychology for someone here.
A cynic would wonde rto what degree his customers keep him happy so as to make sure that they get cod rather than huss for dinner. Or indeed self-select after the first encounter. One thing about indoor markets - there are usually several of each kind of shop to choose from.
I rather like the idea of an indoor market with a Boris-supporting fishmonger, a Mordaunt-supporting one, and a Rishi-supporting one.
As an aside, not certain but if the fool does become PM again I'm thinking Lib Dem is perhaps my likeliest vote, as they have (I'll check if I go that way) neither far left fruitcakes nor utterly lunatic Johnsons.
Labour not impossible, though I'm concerned about how much of the far left remains.
As for the Conservatives: if they elect Boris Johnson then unless Labour get led by a far left maniac again, I'm not voting for them.
I never thought I'd see the day that you would consider voting Labour.
🚨LATEST POLLING🚨 Overnight we ran three head-to-heads between the most likely Conservative leadership candidates. The results were:
> Sunak 45% vs 23% for Mordaunt > Sunak 44% vs 31% for Johnson > Mordaunt 36% vs 33% for Johnson
Edit: To clarify, a poll of the general public, not party members
That's a weirdly non-transitive set of results. Sunak beats Mordaunt by a wide margin and Mordaunt beats Johnson (just), so you'd expect Sunak to beat Johnson by a much wider margin.
I guess it reflects how strong the pro/anti-Boris polarization is.
NEW UK gilt yields have jumped sharply in the past hour or so following news that Boris Johnson is now favourite, in betting markets, to be the next PM.
Very interesting thread by the founder of Bellingcat.
https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1583380015550726144 To build on this, my personal belief is most counter-disinformation work fails to address the fundamental issues that lead to the creation of disinformation, and generally misunderstands the source of disinformation in the first place....
"And these people don't become part of these communities to create and spread disinformation, they do it because they believe (often correctly) that they're being deceived, so seek to correct the record."
"The problem is their own biases, fuelled by traumatic moral injury, means any conclusion that supports the perceived position of those responsible for that injury is unacceptable, so alternative, increasing absurd, answers must be correct."
I remember an academic that Obama hired to look at this and I remember her talking about how all the talk of Russia simply providing loads of propaganda backing Trump was nonsense.
That in reality it had all been going on for a long time, they had joined or setup loads and loads of social media groups across the political and ethnic divides and people were voluntary getting involved. The reason, because they already had a cause / a side / a campaign they wanted to get on board with.
The trick being played was to reinforce the biases and keep stretching the narrative. Most of the time the Russian state actors were just engaging in these discussions, amplifying certain things being brought up, and then from time to time slipping in a story (sometimes true, sometimes false, sometimes somewhere inbetween) with deliberate ploy to outrage.
Indeed - but his real point is that Russia is irrelevant if you're trying to actually address the problem. The only way to build trust is not to lie.
No, it is about the tendency of people to like reinforcing their own biases.
Notice the style of our little friends who @rcs1000 bins from time to time. Trying to start a conversation by agreeing with a certain viewpoint. Reinforce a set of prejudices at the same time as starting an argument.
There is, I am afraid to say, a downside for Labour to Boris returning.
He possesses a Teflon nature I’ve not seen any other politician other than Blair in his prime possess. Yes he was unpopular before he left office, but you can see with the various vox pops that there is a certain type of voter who will be delighted he’s back.
I have a horrible feeling that the narrative will be:
“He’s had his punishment/served his time, now we have to get behind him and let him do what we put him there to do”
/
“Everything that happened under Liz Truss wasn’t his fault, he’s going to come back and sort it all out now.”
In certain seats (particularly red wall flavoured) I’d give Boris a much better chance of holding on than Penny or Rishi.
This does not mean that I think the Tory Party should go for Boris. He repels as many people as he brings back on board, and I strongly doubt he will be able to win an election. I feel there are principles more important than electoral performance. I just have to be honest with how I see the lie of the land. There is a decent argument that he makes the difference in a few places that matter, and saves a few more seats than the alternatives.
A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
Has Boris's polling and the by-election defeats earlier this year escaped your attention?
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
He's more likely to act as Gozer the Destructor.
the tories need to gamble though now ,otherwise certain to lose - the only gamble left is Johnson - he may even be able to be perceived as a fresh start with the slate wiped clean (after been sin-binned) - He is actually good at enthusing so the fresh start narrative plays into his strength there
If there's something Boris isn't it's a fresh start.
Boris becoming PM could lose the Tories office in weeks.
How? The Tories have a majority?
If you mean because the Tories are divided, then do you think those divisions are magically going to go away if Rishi wins?
Lots of Tories will quit the whip and refuse to serve under Boris if he wins.
Just look at how many (even ERG) ministers quite en mass last time rather than serve under him. Why do you think that opinion was so universal?
Everyone has got to understand he is kryptonite to the Conservative party.
And you don't think Sunak is kryptonite to others in the Conservative Party?
If you want a unity candidate then pick someone like Penny who can appeal to different sides of the divide. If the party doubles-down on Sunak versus Boris then there's no good answer there that either will be able to, or deserves to, unite the party and win.
The trouble is that a lot of core Johnson supporting MPs appear to be careerist idiots who wouldn't be employed by anyone else. Do you want Rees-Mogg in a great office of state?
You could make a horror show of a Cabinet of those who have declared for Boris already....
🚨LATEST POLLING🚨 Overnight we ran three head-to-heads between the most likely Conservative leadership candidates. The results were:
> Sunak 45% vs 23% for Mordaunt > Sunak 44% vs 31% for Johnson > Mordaunt 36% vs 33% for Johnson
Edit: To clarify, a poll of the general public, not party members
It demonstrates that Mordaunt, hardly well known by the populace, is still seen as a better option than the disgraced former PM. So much for his ability to turn things around. I hope MPs have seen this
However how many of those who prefer Sunak to Johnson or Mordaunt would vote for Starmer over all of them.
Still not a reason to bring back a liar and incompetent to the most important position in the land.
I find your undying love for the man extraordinary. You are meant to be a practicing Anglican are you not? How does that align in terms of your values with supporting an adulterous liar and law breaker for the most important position that we have?
🚨LATEST POLLING🚨 Overnight we ran three head-to-heads between the most likely Conservative leadership candidates. The results were:
> Sunak 45% vs 23% for Mordaunt > Sunak 44% vs 31% for Johnson > Mordaunt 36% vs 33% for Johnson
Edit: To clarify, a poll of the general public, not party members
It demonstrates that Mordaunt, hardly well known by the populace, is still seen as a better option than the disgraced former PM. So much for his ability to turn things around. I hope MPs have seen this
However how many of those who prefer Sunak to Johnson or Mordaunt would vote for Starmer over all of them.
But HY. Johnson is a moronic ****. Many of us, not of your evangelical Johnsonian faith are physically sick at the thought the disgraced Johnson could return to shade our great nation any more than he already has done.
Johnson is electorally toxic, Sunak and Mordaunt are not. You have more chance of winning back support for GE2024/25 here on Planet Earth with either of that pair than you do with Johnson. He is poison to your party and my country. We are genuinely saddened that your party could saddle us with this dangerous Trumpian ****wit once again.
Guido's spreadsheet shows unnamed MPs who are Party Officers (so can't publicly declare their support) supporting candidates as follows:
Boris - 17 Penny - 2 Rishi - 1
Two questions:
1) How many MPs are Party Officers in total?
2) If Boris has the support of the vast majority of Party Officers, why did they make the rule that 100 nominations are needed which may prevent Boris standing?
Guido is bullshitting
Guido, the Telegraph, the Mail and the Express are going to print no end of lies over the next couple of days to try to get Johnson over the line.
The Mail can print joyfull headlines that the mini-budget was the first really Tory budget in 45 years and turn on it and destroy its authors a week or two later without batting an eye lid.
Sadly a healthy democracy needs an electorate that makes an effort to understand the issues and think for themselves otherwise they are just prey to unscrupulous politicians of left and right leading them by the nose. They say people get the governments they deserve and that has never been truer than it is today and on that happy note I think Johnson will become PM again and will end up as big a disaster as last time.
Here enders the lesson!
Careful, Driver will be along in a minute to accuse you of 'sneering' at people. The horror.
🚨LATEST POLLING🚨 Overnight we ran three head-to-heads between the most likely Conservative leadership candidates. The results were:
> Sunak 45% vs 23% for Mordaunt > Sunak 44% vs 31% for Johnson > Mordaunt 36% vs 33% for Johnson
Edit: To clarify, a poll of the general public, not party members
That's a weirdly non-transitive set of results. Sunak beats Mordaunt by a wide margin and Mordaunt beats Johnson (just), so you'd expect Sunak to beat Johnson by a much wider margin.
I guess it reflects how strong the pro/anti-Boris polarization is.
Primary motivations something like:
20% Pro Boris 25% Anti Boris 20% Pro Sunak 10% Pro Mordaunt 10% Anti Sunak
@BBCBreakfast 'If you are watching Boris your country needs you'
Fishmonger Steve Waters who works at Birmingham Indoor Market told #BBCBreakfast his customers want Boris Johnson to replace Liz Truss as Prime Minister
I saw him this morning on BBC Breakfast. He was weird. There's a certain type of man who loves Boris. Their love for him, it seems, makes them feel strong, like they're in on something that no one else can see. This strange para-social relationship they seem to have with him, doubly odd because the man himself is not particularly accessible, is very strange. There's a PhD in psychology for someone here.
A cynic would wonde rto what degree his customers keep him happy so as to make sure that they get cod rather than huss for dinner. Or indeed self-select after the first encounter. One thing about indoor markets - there are usually several of each kind of shop to choose from.
I rather like the idea of an indoor market with a Boris-supporting fishmonger, a Mordaunt-supporting one, and a Rishi-supporting one.
And a tofumonger supporter of the Anti-Growth Coalition.
I saw him this morning on BBC Breakfast. He was weird. There's a certain type of man who loves Boris. Their love for him, it seems, makes them feel strong, like they're in on something that no one else can see. This strange para-social relationship they seem to have with him, doubly odd because the man himself is not particularly accessible, is very strange. There's a PhD in psychology for someone here.
BoZo is popular for the same reasons as Jimmy Saville
🚨LATEST POLLING🚨 Overnight we ran three head-to-heads between the most likely Conservative leadership candidates. The results were:
> Sunak 45% vs 23% for Mordaunt > Sunak 44% vs 31% for Johnson > Mordaunt 36% vs 33% for Johnson
Edit: To clarify, a poll of the general public, not party members
Once again, the general public have it right. The membership/Tory MPs probably have it wrong.
If Boris comes back, the economy is probably going over the cliff edge EVEN if Hunt stays. I'm not convinced that rotating through Conservative PMs and Chancellors is going to do it anymore.
You need dull and boring. That's the two Sirs.... Starmer and Davey.
I suspect I’m not alone in having a sense of deep deep internal relief, knowing that The Boris is returning to the throne of Fair England
I imagine many churches will toll bells out of sheer jubilation, lofty maypoles will be erected in our towns, and the children will play their most joyous games, the king’s Jews will bake celebratory matzos in Stokey, and gays will embrace Muslims in the boulevards of Birmingham
GOD BE PRAISED
Free drink on the journos' train again today? Complete with mescal cactus and caterpillars in it?
I think Brady has fucked this process. With the current state of the Party it all but guarantees two big, adversarial blocs. Add in the potential for disharmony between members and MPs and it all adds up to yet another PM who won't long be able to command the confidence of the House.
There isn't a process that can fix the divided state of the party.
Might turn out the enormous nom threshold has actually sunk the one candidate that could have managed it though - Mordaunt.
Unintended consequences and all that.
My feeling is that Mordaunt is seen by the Truss/Boris supporters as "not one of us" and insufficiently loyal or principled.
This would only be heightened if, as PM, she brought a wide variety of MPs into her Cabinet. They're as unwilling to compromise as Ian Paisley in his pomp.
So busy at work yesterday, I found out about Liz from a client!
Sad for her. I respect her tenacity and her wish to turn around the UK economy, but she tried to do too much too soon. I suppose that's hardly surprising with 2 years to try and turn everything around and prove it electorally.
I'd prefer Bojo to Rishi naturally. I'd like Bojo to try and demonstrate in the race that he will pack the cabinet with capability (as opposed to a cadre of ultra-loyalists like before, and like with Liz) - let's hope some lessons have been learned.
There is, I am afraid to say, a downside for Labour to Boris returning.
He possesses a Teflon nature I’ve not seen any other politician other than Blair in his prime possess. Yes he was unpopular before he left office, but you can see with the various vox pops that there is a certain type of voter who will be delighted he’s back.
I have a horrible feeling that the narrative will be:
“He’s had his punishment/served his time, now we have to get behind him and let him do what we put him there to do”
/
“Everything that happened under Liz Truss wasn’t his fault, he’s going to come back and sort it all out now.”
In certain seats (particularly red wall flavoured) I’d give Boris a much better chance of holding on than Penny or Rishi.
This does not mean that I think the Tory Party should go for Boris. He repels as many people as he brings back on board, and I strongly doubt he will be able to win an election. I feel there are principles more important than electoral performance. I just have to be honest with how I see the lie of the land. There is a decent argument that he makes the difference in a few places that matter, and saves a few more seats than the alternatives.
With Boris as PM, the Conservatives won't poll 14% at the next election, maybe. But they won't win.
Rob Ford 💙💛 @robfordmancs Boris backers imagine that Johnson can turn this around. But you can't unburn toast. Here are Johnson's final ratings with YouGov on different characteristics: Competence: -43 Trustworthiness: -65 Decisiveness: -35 Strength: -24 Likeability: -13
A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
Has Boris's polling and the by-election defeats earlier this year escaped your attention?
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
He's more likely to act as Gozer the Destructor.
the tories need to gamble though now ,otherwise certain to lose - the only gamble left is Johnson - he may even be able to be perceived as a fresh start with the slate wiped clean (after been sin-binned) - He is actually good at enthusing so the fresh start narrative plays into his strength there
If there's something Boris isn't it's a fresh start.
Boris becoming PM could lose the Tories office in weeks.
How? The Tories have a majority?
If you mean because the Tories are divided, then do you think those divisions are magically going to go away if Rishi wins?
Lots of Tories will quit the whip and refuse to serve under Boris if he wins.
Just look at how many (even ERG) ministers quite en mass last time rather than serve under him. Why do you think that opinion was so universal?
Everyone has got to understand he is kryptonite to the Conservative party.
And you don't think Sunak is kryptonite to others in the Conservative Party?
If you want a unity candidate then pick someone like Penny who can appeal to different sides of the divide. If the party doubles-down on Sunak versus Boris then there's no good answer there that either will be able to, or deserves to, unite the party and win.
The trouble is that a lot of core Johnson supporting MPs appear to be careerist idiots who wouldn't be employed by anyone else. Do you want Rees-Mogg in a great office of state?
You could make a horror show of a Cabinet of those who have declared for Boris already....
NEW UK gilt yields have jumped sharply in the past hour or so following news that Boris Johnson is now favourite, in betting markets, to be the next PM.
Ed Conway is really dishonest with how he selectively uses gilts prices to serve his pro labour bias.
UK 10 years are now trading 25bps inside US Treasuries, having traded as far as 50bps outside a couple of weeks ago when the pension funds were deleveraging.
I saw him this morning on BBC Breakfast. He was weird. There's a certain type of man who loves Boris. Their love for him, it seems, makes them feel strong, like they're in on something that no one else can see. This strange para-social relationship they seem to have with him, doubly odd because the man himself is not particularly accessible, is very strange. There's a PhD in psychology for someone here.
BoZo is popular for the same reasons as Jimmy Saville
I think the point is that his popularity is not as strong as the gullible fools and apologists who deify him wish to believe. Very like Jeremy Corbyn, who, in a possible draw with Liz Truss, remains one of the few people who would have made an even more embarrassing spectacle on the world stage than Boris Johnson
NEW UK gilt yields have jumped sharply in the past hour or so following news that Boris Johnson is now favourite, in betting markets, to be the next PM.
There is, I am afraid to say, a downside for Labour to Boris returning.
He possesses a Teflon nature I’ve not seen any other politician other than Blair in his prime possess. Yes he was unpopular before he left office, but you can see with the various vox pops that there is a certain type of voter who will be delighted he’s back.
I have a horrible feeling that the narrative will be:
“He’s had his punishment/served his time, now we have to get behind him and let him do what we put him there to do”
/
“Everything that happened under Liz Truss wasn’t his fault, he’s going to come back and sort it all out now.”
In certain seats (particularly red wall flavoured) I’d give Boris a much better chance of holding on than Penny or Rishi.
This does not mean that I think the Tory Party should go for Boris. He repels as many people as he brings back on board, and I strongly doubt he will be able to win an election. I feel there are principles more important than electoral performance. I just have to be honest with how I see the lie of the land. There is a decent argument that he makes the difference in a few places that matter, and saves a few more seats than the alternatives.
With Boris as PM, the Conservatives won't poll 14% at the next election, maybe. But they won't win.
They would lose less badly with Sunak.
I agree they wouldn’t win under Boris. I also hope they go with Sunak. Not because I would vote for them, but because it would give me a little bit of hope that the country wouldn’t be run by an idiot for once.
So busy at work yesterday, I found out about Liz from a client!
Sad for her. I respect her tenacity and her wish to turn around the UK economy, but she tried to do too much too soon. I suppose that's hardly surprising with 2 years to try and turn everything around and prove it electorally.
I'd prefer Bojo to Rishi naturally. I'd like Bojo to try and demonstrate in the race that he will pack the cabinet with capability (as opposed to a cadre of ultra-loyalists like before, and like with Liz) - let's hope some lessons have been learned.
If you think Truss had too little time to “turn everything around” why on Earth would you put her predecessor back who presided over whatever mess she was wrestling with in the first place. It makes no sense.
Boris coming back is starting to feel inevitable now. 😒
Vox pops on Sky surprisingly positive "most want him back" according to the presenter and "yes he made mistakes but who hasn't" seems to be a common refrain.
This all seems very bizarre.
Of course lots of people want him back. He tells low information voters what they desperately want to hear, and persuades just enough of them that it's true and he's definitely the man to make it happen. No austerity. Levelling up. Banishing the doomsters and gloomsters. Britain is great. Rule Britannia!
They don't want the reality that 12 years of the Tories have brought us. Well, they're going to get it anyway.
I do wish people would stop sneering at people who voted the wrong way as "low information", it's a really ugly look.
Most people are low information voters. I'm not sneering. Low information voters cut across all classes, incomes, educational levels, intelligence. Most people pay no attention at all. That's why Johnson has been so effective. He shamelessly spins webs of disinformation that anyone who pays the slightest attention can see if just a load of tosh. But to those who don't pay much attention he sounds very plausible. Trumpian. He gets just enough people to vote to make themselves poorer, and not even realise it. Cheer it, even.
You certainly come across as sneering - "those people who know so much less than me".
There's loads of things I don't know about that other people do. Horse racing. The wiring of a 1957 Volkswagen Beetle. How to make damson jam. 99% of human knowledge I am probably ignorant of. If people point that out to me I don't think they're sneering, they're being factual.
Most people don't follow politics closely. Pointing that out isn't sneering.
Well, it certainly looks like it.
Well, you're welcome to your opinion. Do you support Johnson and the Tories?
No.
That's interesting. Who's your 'team'?
I don't have one. I've voted for all three main parties in the last 10 years. At the moment, closest to voting Lib Dem next time, but I don't think my constituency has any selected candidate from any party at the moment (the incumbent is whipless) so too early to tell.
NEW UK gilt yields have jumped sharply in the past hour or so following news that Boris Johnson is now favourite, in betting markets, to be the next PM.
Ed Conway is really dishonest with how he selectively uses gilts prices to serve his pro labour bias.
UK 10 years are now trading 25bps inside US Treasuries, having traded as far as 50bps outside a couple of weeks ago when the pension funds were deleveraging.
Indeed Sky's Business presenter Ian King was quite clear that he did not think gilts were moving due to politics and pointed out that German and American gilts were moving further than British ones.
I think Ian King has more credibility than Ed Conway.
NEW UK gilt yields have jumped sharply in the past hour or so following news that Boris Johnson is now favourite, in betting markets, to be the next PM.
Ed Conway is really dishonest with how he selectively uses gilts prices to serve his pro labour bias.
UK 10 years are now trading 25bps inside US Treasuries, having traded as far as 50bps outside a couple of weeks ago when the pension funds were deleveraging.
I should add as well that the US 2/10 split inversion is strongly signalling recession. The Uk curve is not inverted.
@BBCBreakfast 'If you are watching Boris your country needs you'
Fishmonger Steve Waters who works at Birmingham Indoor Market told #BBCBreakfast his customers want Boris Johnson to replace Liz Truss as Prime Minister
I saw him this morning on BBC Breakfast. He was weird. There's a certain type of man who loves Boris. Their love for him, it seems, makes them feel strong, like they're in on something that no one else can see. This strange para-social relationship they seem to have with him, doubly odd because the man himself is not particularly accessible, is very strange. There's a PhD in psychology for someone here.
That's how many people feel about celebrities. If you think that guy was weird...it gets a hell of a lot weirder than that. It can be far less articulate than that guy is, and far more emotional. And in mass politics it's emotions that count. Many among the less well educated felt similarly about say Prince Philip or Donald Trump.
Not sure I understand your concept of accessibility. Johnson is many things, but he's skilled at being a celebrity and brand.
There is, I am afraid to say, a downside for Labour to Boris returning.
He possesses a Teflon nature I’ve not seen any other politician other than Blair in his prime possess. Yes he was unpopular before he left office, but you can see with the various vox pops that there is a certain type of voter who will be delighted he’s back.
I have a horrible feeling that the narrative will be:
“He’s had his punishment/served his time, now we have to get behind him and let him do what we put him there to do”
/
“Everything that happened under Liz Truss wasn’t his fault, he’s going to come back and sort it all out now.”
In certain seats (particularly red wall flavoured) I’d give Boris a much better chance of holding on than Penny or Rishi.
This does not mean that I think the Tory Party should go for Boris. He repels as many people as he brings back on board, and I strongly doubt he will be able to win an election. I feel there are principles more important than electoral performance. I just have to be honest with how I see the lie of the land. There is a decent argument that he makes the difference in a few places that matter, and saves a few more seats than the alternatives.
With Boris as PM, the Conservatives won't poll 14% at the next election, maybe. But they won't win.
They would lose less badly with Sunak.
Hypothesis: the best time for Boris to go to the country is "immediately": before anyone has time to remember why they hated him before, before the committee report, before his enemies get the knife in, and before his personal incompetence does more damage.
🚨LATEST POLLING🚨 Overnight we ran three head-to-heads between the most likely Conservative leadership candidates. The results were:
> Sunak 45% vs 23% for Mordaunt > Sunak 44% vs 31% for Johnson > Mordaunt 36% vs 33% for Johnson
Edit: To clarify, a poll of the general public, not party members
Doesn't that shoot down in flames the idea that Johnson is some type of super vote-wining machine? Take that away from him and what's left - lies, incompetence and bluster?
Simon Clarke has become the second Cabinet minister to back Boris Johnson to replace Liz Truss as Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative party, The Telegraph can disclose.
Mr Clarke, the Levelling Up secretary, urged MPs to back Mr Johnson in a joint statement to The Telegraph with Ben Houchen, Tees Valley Mayor.
Not normally an advocate of Government by leaks, but if ever we needed leaks...
Very, very detailed leaks.
Before Monday.
The threat of leaks may be enough to put Boris off. He can bring out the bonhomie and bluster and "I know you all want me back and love me but I delivered Brexit and my work is done."
What exactly are the policy differences between Johnson and Sunak?
I think Rishi Sunak has demonstrated that it is not his policy to lie. The disgraced former PM, Boris Johnson managed to demonstrate that it was his policy to rarely tell the truth.
I've spoken to quite a few people in recent days who were utterly fuming about Boris a couple of months ago but have said in the last few days "can't we just get Boris back, things weren't so bad under him".
I don't agree, but its certainly a factor for some people.
But it looks like my preferred candidate is increasingly definitely going to lose anyway. 😞
Very interesting thread by the founder of Bellingcat.
https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1583380015550726144 To build on this, my personal belief is most counter-disinformation work fails to address the fundamental issues that lead to the creation of disinformation, and generally misunderstands the source of disinformation in the first place....
"And these people don't become part of these communities to create and spread disinformation, they do it because they believe (often correctly) that they're being deceived, so seek to correct the record."
"The problem is their own biases, fuelled by traumatic moral injury, means any conclusion that supports the perceived position of those responsible for that injury is unacceptable, so alternative, increasing absurd, answers must be correct."
I remember an academic that Obama hired to look at this and I remember her talking about how all the talk of Russia simply providing loads of propaganda backing Trump was nonsense.
That in reality it had all been going on for a long time, they had joined or setup loads and loads of social media groups across the political and ethnic divides and people were voluntary getting involved. The reason, because they already had a cause / a side / a campaign they wanted to get on board with.
The trick being played was to reinforce the biases and keep stretching the narrative. Most of the time the Russian state actors were just engaging in these discussions, amplifying certain things being brought up, and then from time to time slipping in a story (sometimes true, sometimes false, sometimes somewhere inbetween) with deliberate ploy to outrage.
Indeed - but his real point is that Russia is irrelevant if you're trying to actually address the problem. The only way to build trust is not to lie.
No, it is about the tendency of people to like reinforcing their own biases....
Well, that's part of it - but that is always going to be the case, and as he says: "there's nothing wrong with that, the problem comes when individuals define their entire world view on those issues".
His argument centres around what drives people to abandon faith in institutions. ...For example, the Invasion of Iraq in 2003, and the lies told to support the war by the US and UK governments, is one of these moments why traditional sources of authority betrayed the trust of the public, and drove people to seek alternative sources of authority....
On the surface the QAnon, Flat Earth and anti-White Helmets community might all seem very different, but if you look at the root causes that bring them together in the first place the fundamental distrust in traditional sources of authority seems to be a common theme. If you look at how Covid conspiracies emerged from the alternative health communities you'll see a lot of people who have had very bad experiences with medical professionals, another traditional source of authority...
@BBCBreakfast 'If you are watching Boris your country needs you'
Fishmonger Steve Waters who works at Birmingham Indoor Market told #BBCBreakfast his customers want Boris Johnson to replace Liz Truss as Prime Minister
I saw him this morning on BBC Breakfast. He was weird. There's a certain type of man who loves Boris. Their love for him, it seems, makes them feel strong, like they're in on something that no one else can see. This strange para-social relationship they seem to have with him, doubly odd because the man himself is not particularly accessible, is very strange. There's a PhD in psychology for someone here.
That's how many people feel about celebrities. If you think that guy was weird...it gets a hell of a lot weirder than that. It can be far less articulate than that guy is, and far more emotional. And in mass politics it's emotions that count. Many among the less well educated felt similarly about say Prince Philip or Donald Trump.
Not sure I understand your concept of accessibility. Johnson is many things, but he's skilled at being a celebrity and brand.
It's not just the less well educated.
I used to be a member of a private members club in London. Quite a few A listers wandering around. A friend, PhD, researcher etc, who practically lived in the glossy magazines would drool at the sight of them, while I was fairly indifferent.
To her, that was Real, while discussion of politics was a practical exercise. Dry and a bit boring, really.
There is a touch of the GOP about todays Tory party. It stands at a crossroads. Go full Trump/Maga with Boris or try to remember its conservative roots.
What happens if a PM loses their seat in a by-election ? Can they go to the Lords and rule ?
There's what is possible constitutionally, and then there's what is possible politically.
Constitutionally they could be PM as a Lord. We'd have PMs Questions in the Lords, presumably general government questions to the Leader of the House in the Commons.
Politically you'd think it would be untenable, particularly if they've just been rejected by the electorate in a by-election. Perhaps more likely would be for a loyal supporter in a safe seat to be elevated to the Lords and for the PM to try again in that safe seat.
But Johnson has always broken the rules that apply to everyone else, and often for away with it, so we may see things we previously thought were not possible.
What happens if a PM loses their seat in a by-election ? Can they go to the Lords and rule ?
Modern convention (was the last lords PM Lord Salisbury?) is that the PM must be in the commons, not the lords, but it isn't a law and there is the odd anomaly (early days of A Douglas Hume).
In reality if a PM has to get re-elected and loses he's out.
According to Guido's spreadsheet current numbers are: Rishi: 74 Boris: 62 Penny: 22 (my numbers include the candidate)
With only 199 to go seems unlikely that Penny will get another 78
The way this is turning into Boris vs Rishi just shows how the original leadership process before William Hague messed around with it was much better and the last couple of months have been a farce.
Sunak would have been Heseltine to Johnson's Thatcher, and either would have succeeded and became PM, failed and Johnson would have carried on, or the parliamentary party would have coalesced around someone else who could do the job.
NEW UK gilt yields have jumped sharply in the past hour or so following news that Boris Johnson is now favourite, in betting markets, to be the next PM.
Ed Conway is really dishonest with how he selectively uses gilts prices to serve his pro labour bias.
UK 10 years are now trading 25bps inside US Treasuries, having traded as far as 50bps outside a couple of weeks ago when the pension funds were deleveraging.
Indeed Sky's Business presenter Ian King was quite clear that he did not think gilts were moving due to politics and pointed out that German and American gilts were moving further than British ones.
It's meaningless to compare yields of bonds issued in different currencies, because of differences in so many factors (inflation expectations, interest rate policies, etc.) besides government credibility. So it means something when you compare German and Italian euro bond yields, but nothing at all when you compare UK bond yields issued in sterling and US bonds issued in dollars.
Just as focusing on the $/£ exchange rate means that we get panic about the pound plunging whenever the dollar rises.
What happens if a PM loses their seat in a by-election ? Can they go to the Lords and rule ?
There's what is possible constitutionally, and then there's what is possible politically.
Constitutionally they could be PM as a Lord. We'd have PMs Questions in the Lords, presumably general government questions to the Leader of the House in the Commons.
Politically you'd think it would be untenable, particularly if they've just been rejected by the electorate in a by-election. Perhaps more likely would be for a loyal supporter in a safe seat to be elevated to the Lords and for the PM to try again in that safe seat.
But Johnson has always broken the rules that apply to everyone else, and often for away with it, so we may see things we previously thought were not possible.
How would PMQs work if Boris was in the Lords ? As Starmer is a err Commoner.
I've spoken to quite a few people in recent days who were utterly fuming about Boris a couple of months ago but have said in the last few days "can't we just get Boris back, things weren't so bad under him".
I don't agree, but its certainly a factor for some people.
But it looks like my preferred candidate is increasingly definitely going to lose anyway. 😞
@BBCBreakfast 'If you are watching Boris your country needs you'
Fishmonger Steve Waters who works at Birmingham Indoor Market told #BBCBreakfast his customers want Boris Johnson to replace Liz Truss as Prime Minister
I saw him this morning on BBC Breakfast. He was weird. There's a certain type of man who loves Boris. Their love for him, it seems, makes them feel strong, like they're in on something that no one else can see. This strange para-social relationship they seem to have with him, doubly odd because the man himself is not particularly accessible, is very strange. There's a PhD in psychology for someone here.
That's how many people feel about celebrities. If you think that guy was weird...it gets a hell of a lot weirder than that. It can be far less articulate than that guy is, and far more emotional. And in mass politics it's emotions that count. Many among the less well educated felt similarly about say Prince Philip or Donald Trump.
Not sure I understand your concept of accessibility. Johnson is many things, but he's skilled at being a celebrity and brand.
I think this is spot on. Boris is really the first true celebrity leader (Farage is another, but with a more selective appeal), and he's best viewed through that lens; think about the people who love e.g. Michael Jackson or Lady Gaga and have that weird parasocial thing.
Even Blair, who probably came closest to the celebrity leader, was absolutely a politician first.
So busy at work yesterday, I found out about Liz from a client!
Sad for her. I respect her tenacity and her wish to turn around the UK economy, but she tried to do too much too soon. I suppose that's hardly surprising with 2 years to try and turn everything around and prove it electorally.
I'd prefer Bojo to Rishi naturally. I'd like Bojo to try and demonstrate in the race that he will pack the cabinet with capability (as opposed to a cadre of ultra-loyalists like before, and like with Liz) - let's hope some lessons have been learned.
If you think Truss had too little time to “turn everything around” why on Earth would you put her predecessor back who presided over whatever mess she was wrestling with in the first place. It makes no sense.
I see Sunak as a (would be) roving internationalist jobsworth, a Lagarde, a Carney, a Von Der Leyen. He's efficient and quite well spoken (though he was poor in the leadership hustings), but put in place, will just do whatever the international symposia, Biden etc., want him to do. That to me is dangerous, and would accelerate the UK's trip to penury, which is a consequence that I think Sunak would be quite prepared to live with (and certainly insulated from the consequences). Boris is not a hero of the UK, he's a coward, and has a poor record of standing up to anyone, but at least he's influencable on a number of fronts, and less predictable than Sunak. There's a chance we'll muddle through with Boris. His inefficiency and ineffectiveness as a politician makes him less harmful.
🚨LATEST POLLING🚨 Overnight we ran three head-to-heads between the most likely Conservative leadership candidates. The results were:
> Sunak 45% vs 23% for Mordaunt > Sunak 44% vs 31% for Johnson > Mordaunt 36% vs 33% for Johnson
Edit: To clarify, a poll of the general public, not party members
It demonstrates that Mordaunt, hardly well known by the populace, is still seen as a better option than the disgraced former PM. So much for his ability to turn things around. I hope MPs have seen this
Mordaunt trails Sunak by much more than Johnson does. But beats Johnson head-to-head. Some weird rock-paper-scissors going on.
@BBCBreakfast 'If you are watching Boris your country needs you'
Fishmonger Steve Waters who works at Birmingham Indoor Market told #BBCBreakfast his customers want Boris Johnson to replace Liz Truss as Prime Minister
I saw him this morning on BBC Breakfast. He was weird. There's a certain type of man who loves Boris. Their love for him, it seems, makes them feel strong, like they're in on something that no one else can see. This strange para-social relationship they seem to have with him, doubly odd because the man himself is not particularly accessible, is very strange. There's a PhD in psychology for someone here.
That's how many people feel about celebrities. If you think that guy was weird...it gets a hell of a lot weirder than that. It can be far less articulate than that guy is, and far more emotional. And in mass politics it's emotions that count. Many among the less well educated felt similarly about say Prince Philip or Donald Trump.
Not sure I understand your concept of accessibility. Johnson is many things, but he's skilled at being a celebrity and brand.
I guess, but it's odd to see it applied to a politician. I have liked, and disliked, a number of politicians over the years but I've never felt the country needed any particular one. I get that politics can often be emotional, but usually that's just a shorthand for saying that the general public often make political decisions based on feelings, or impressions, rather than empirical judgement. I think it's unusual for people to be so emotionally invested in a politician in this way.
As to accessibility, I was thinking of the other great para-social relationships of our age, social media figures, YouTube celebs, Onlyfans models, podcasters, and Twitch Streamers. The thing the successful ones have in common is a perceived level of accessibility, interacting with fans on what seems, to the fan, to be a personal level. Boris is not churning out content for his fandom, is what I mean.
This contest makes this unlikely, but in the old days Mordaunt would be perfectly positioned as the unity candidate.
She doesn’t stand a chance today.
Yes, the system is set up now to get polarising sides to get the worst person (from each other's perspective) put forward against each other.
Instead of seeking a compromise as in the past.
The system pre-Hague's changes was better. It shouldn't be either Sunak or Boris, but nobody else can get the 100 votes.
Is there a clever play for Sunak to back Mourdaunt? He must know part of the party doesn’t buy him as leader. It might knock the wind out of Boris’ sails.
Simon Clarke has become the second Cabinet minister to back Boris Johnson to replace Liz Truss as Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative party, The Telegraph can disclose.
Mr Clarke, the Levelling Up secretary, urged MPs to back Mr Johnson in a joint statement to The Telegraph with Ben Houchen, Tees Valley Mayor.
According to Guido's spreadsheet current numbers are: Rishi: 74 Boris: 62 Penny: 22 (my numbers include the candidate)
With only 199 to go seems unlikely that Penny will get another 78
What happens if two candidates get >100 nominations but in the MPs vote one of them doesn't clear 100?
Top 2 go through to the members; no lower bar for that purpose. If only two candidates you could end up 350-1 with the MPs. Both go through (unless one drops out). Number 2 drops out unless their name is Boris
(Imagine:Boris with 1 (or tiny) MP vote wins the members' vote 50.1%-49.9%. Chaos. Boris PM. Tories split. Borisites win next GE with 325 seats......)
According to Guido's spreadsheet current numbers are: Rishi: 74 Boris: 62 Penny: 22 (my numbers include the candidate)
With only 199 to go seems unlikely that Penny will get another 78
Depends how big a surplus Rishi has to lend her.
He tries to do this again, he'll lose again. It's that simple. If you're about as popular as siphilis with your own party, maybe you should have a think why.
What happens if a PM loses their seat in a by-election ? Can they go to the Lords and rule ?
There's what is possible constitutionally, and then there's what is possible politically.
Constitutionally they could be PM as a Lord. We'd have PMs Questions in the Lords, presumably general government questions to the Leader of the House in the Commons.
Politically you'd think it would be untenable, particularly if they've just been rejected by the electorate in a by-election. Perhaps more likely would be for a loyal supporter in a safe seat to be elevated to the Lords and for the PM to try again in that safe seat.
But Johnson has always broken the rules that apply to everyone else, and often for away with it, so we may see things we previously thought were not possible.
How would PMQs work if Boris was in the Lords ? As Starmer is a err Commoner.
The Labour leader in the Lords would ask the questions to Johnson. Starmer might get to ask questions of a nominated stand-in, similar to the practice now if the PM isn't available for whatever reason.
Guido's spreadsheet shows unnamed MPs who are Party Officers (so can't publicly declare their support) supporting candidates as follows:
Boris - 17 Penny - 2 Rishi - 1
Two questions:
1) How many MPs are Party Officers in total?
2) If Boris has the support of the vast majority of Party Officers, why did they make the rule that 100 nominations are needed which may prevent Boris standing?
Guido is bullshitting
Guido, the Telegraph, the Mail and the Express are going to print no end of lies over the next couple of days to try to get Johnson over the line.
The Mail can print joyfull headlines that the mini-budget was the first really Tory budget in 45 years and turn on it and destroy its authors a week or two later without batting an eye lid.
Sadly a healthy democracy needs an electorate that makes an effort to understand the issues and think for themselves otherwise they are just prey to unscrupulous politicians of left and right leading them by the nose. They say people get the governments they deserve and that has never been truer than it is today and on that happy note I think Johnson will become PM again and will end up as big a disaster as last time.
Here enders the lesson!
Careful, Driver will be along in a minute to accuse you of 'sneering' at people. The horror.
No, why would I do that? He's entirely right, and not sneering about "low information voters" at all.
Simon Clarke has become the second Cabinet minister to back Boris Johnson to replace Liz Truss as Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative party, The Telegraph can disclose.
Mr Clarke, the Levelling Up secretary, urged MPs to back Mr Johnson in a joint statement to The Telegraph with Ben Houchen, Tees Valley Mayor.
This is the kind of thing I was getting at about his fans on the previous thread. There's a weird desperation to it. That said, this guy is an MP and so may have an actual social relationship with Johnson.
Comments
Welcome on board, Comrade Dancer!
We really don't need this f***** trashing our nation any more than he already has done.
In head to heads v Starmer there is no difference between Boris and Sunak, both trail Starmer by 13%, Mordaunt trails Starmer by 21%, Badenoch by 30% and Braverman by 33%
https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1583136338169036807?s=20&t=laYL7VitnAHKTYZCLRoiag
2. She might not make a recommendation.
3. He might seek recommendations elsewhere. (That's what his mother did in 1963. Macmillan advised her, but he wasn't the only one.)
4. As sh*tshow develops into sh*tshow squared, he could say there's going to be a GE whether any of you f*cking politicians like it or not and then "invite" her to stay on as caretaker in the interim. (Perhaps he'll wonder "How would Uncle Louis have handled this?" 🙂 )
5. Other sh*t might happen too, e.g. the parliamentary Tory party could sunder. Or other sh*t that few have thought of.
Alice: "So much is cracking that I think there's a good chance a black swan might appear."
Bob: "You're an idiot! You can't even prove such a swan would even have a feasible flightpath!"
Unintended consequences and all that.
The Mail can print joyfull headlines that the mini-budget was the first really Tory budget in 45 years and turn on it and destroy its authors a week or two later without batting an eye lid.
Sadly a healthy democracy needs an electorate that makes an effort to understand the issues and think for themselves otherwise they are just prey to unscrupulous politicians of left and right leading them by the nose. They say people get the governments they deserve and that has never been truer than it is today and on that happy note I think Johnson will become PM again and will end up as big a disaster as last time.
Here enders the lesson!
https://folklondon.co.uk/2021/07/dance-of-dissent-the-role-of-folk-customs-in-rural-radicalism/
One Tory MP tells me any attempt to kill the inquiry could 'bring down the govt'.
Yet momentum builds behind Johnson.
https://www.itv.com/news/2022-10-21/damning-partygate-evidence-means-boris-johnson-could-be-gone-by-christmas
I guess it reflects how strong the pro/anti-Boris polarization is.
UK gilt yields have jumped sharply in the past hour or so following news that Boris Johnson is now favourite, in betting markets, to be the next PM.
NB all bonds moving a lot today but UK more than most
Chart is the two year gilt yield https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1583434848898756608/photo/1
Notice the style of our little friends who @rcs1000 bins from time to time. Trying to start a conversation by agreeing with a certain viewpoint. Reinforce a set of prejudices at the same time as starting an argument.
Can they go to the Lords and rule ?
British Electoral Politics
@electpoliticsuk
Former Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith MP:
"If Boris enters the fray, it will be like one of those Netflix series repeats: you watch even though you know how it ends."
seems ultra astute for IDS
He possesses a Teflon nature I’ve not seen any other politician other than Blair in his prime possess. Yes he was unpopular before he left office, but you can see with the various vox pops that there is a certain type of voter who will be delighted he’s back.
I have a horrible feeling that the narrative will be:
“He’s had his punishment/served his time, now we have to get behind him and let him do what we put him there to do”
/
“Everything that happened under Liz Truss wasn’t his fault, he’s going to come back and sort it all out now.”
In certain seats (particularly red wall flavoured) I’d give Boris a much better chance of holding on than Penny or Rishi.
This does not mean that I think the Tory Party should go for Boris. He repels as many people as he brings back on board, and I strongly doubt he will be able to win an election. I feel there are principles more important than electoral performance. I just have to be honest with how I see the lie of the land. There is a decent argument that he makes the difference in a few places that matter, and saves a few more seats than the alternatives.
I find your undying love for the man extraordinary. You are meant to be a practicing Anglican are you not? How does that align in terms of your values with supporting an adulterous liar and law breaker for the most important position that we have?
Johnson is electorally toxic, Sunak and Mordaunt are not. You have more chance of winning back support for GE2024/25 here on Planet Earth with either of that pair than you do with Johnson. He is poison to your party and my country. We are genuinely saddened that your party could saddle us with this dangerous Trumpian ****wit once again.
20% Pro Boris
25% Anti Boris
20% Pro Sunak
10% Pro Mordaunt
10% Anti Sunak
The membership/Tory MPs probably have it wrong.
If Boris comes back, the economy is probably going over the cliff edge EVEN if Hunt stays.
I'm not convinced that rotating through Conservative PMs and Chancellors is going to do it anymore.
You need dull and boring. That's the two Sirs.... Starmer and Davey.
Boris +£900
Penny +-0
Sunak +-0
Anyone else +£1k
I think Boris probably wins this, but there are still so many unknowns. We don’t even know if he’s on the plane, yet.
This would only be heightened if, as PM, she brought a wide variety of MPs into her Cabinet. They're as unwilling to compromise as Ian Paisley in his pomp.
Sad for her. I respect her tenacity and her wish to turn around the UK economy, but she tried to do too much too soon. I suppose that's hardly surprising with 2 years to try and turn everything around and prove it electorally.
I'd prefer Bojo to Rishi naturally. I'd like Bojo to try and demonstrate in the race that he will pack the cabinet with capability (as opposed to a cadre of ultra-loyalists like before, and like with Liz) - let's hope some lessons have been learned.
They would lose less badly with Sunak.
Rob Ford 💙💛
@robfordmancs
Boris backers imagine that Johnson can turn this around. But you can't unburn toast. Here are Johnson's final ratings with YouGov on different characteristics:
Competence: -43
Trustworthiness: -65
Decisiveness: -35
Strength: -24
Likeability: -13
Like a Boris Government, I suspect.
UK 10 years are now trading 25bps inside US Treasuries, having traded as far as 50bps outside a couple of weeks ago when the pension funds were deleveraging.
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-GB10Y/
Not news.
I think Ian King has more credibility than Ed Conway.
Very, very detailed leaks.
Before Monday.
Not sure I understand your concept of accessibility. Johnson is many things, but he's skilled at being a celebrity and brand.
Rishi: 74
Boris: 62
Penny: 22
(my numbers include the candidate)
With only 199 to go seems unlikely that Penny will get another 78
This was in May this year, with a group who ALL voted Conservative in 2019 talking about Boris Johnson.
“a lying buffoon"
"just an idiot"
"selfish and greedy"
https://twitter.com/TimesRadio/status/1524676555531862017/video/1
I saw this yesterday and cringed like never before. It was just the worst kind of laddish twattery I’ve seen from an MP.
It’s like those bellends in an office who are part of the Friday beer regulars with their manager.
https://twitter.com/bren4bassetlaw
I've spoken to quite a few people in recent days who were utterly fuming about Boris a couple of months ago but have said in the last few days "can't we just get Boris back, things weren't so bad under him".
I don't agree, but its certainly a factor for some people.
But it looks like my preferred candidate is increasingly definitely going to lose anyway. 😞
His argument centres around what drives people to abandon faith in institutions.
...For example, the Invasion of Iraq in 2003, and the lies told to support the war by the US and UK governments, is one of these moments why traditional sources of authority betrayed the trust of the public, and drove people to seek alternative sources of authority....
On the surface the QAnon, Flat Earth and anti-White Helmets community might all seem very different, but if you look at the root causes that bring them together in the first place the fundamental distrust in traditional sources of authority seems to be a common theme.
If you look at how Covid conspiracies emerged from the alternative health communities you'll see a lot of people who have had very bad experiences with medical professionals, another traditional source of authority...
I used to be a member of a private members club in London. Quite a few A listers wandering around. A friend, PhD, researcher etc, who practically lived in the glossy magazines would drool at the sight of them, while I was fairly indifferent.
To her, that was Real, while discussion of politics was a practical exercise. Dry and a bit boring, really.
Constitutionally they could be PM as a Lord. We'd have PMs Questions in the Lords, presumably general government questions to the Leader of the House in the Commons.
Politically you'd think it would be untenable, particularly if they've just been rejected by the electorate in a by-election. Perhaps more likely would be for a loyal supporter in a safe seat to be elevated to the Lords and for the PM to try again in that safe seat.
But Johnson has always broken the rules that apply to everyone else, and often for away with it, so we may see things we previously thought were not possible.
In reality if a PM has to get re-elected and loses he's out.
Sunak would have been Heseltine to Johnson's Thatcher, and either would have succeeded and became PM, failed and Johnson would have carried on, or the parliamentary party would have coalesced around someone else who could do the job.
Just as focusing on the $/£ exchange rate means that we get panic about the pound plunging whenever the dollar rises.
As Starmer is a err Commoner.
She doesn’t stand a chance today.
As I said, could well be Lib Dem. Labour not impossible. I'd be open to voting for various parties.
But a Boris Johnson-led Conservative Party? No. Not unless Labour replace Starmer with a far left lunatic.
Then the next time Tory MPs want to elect another blonde bombshell leader you can slap them.
Hard.
twice.
Instead of seeking a compromise as in the past.
The system pre-Hague's changes was better. It shouldn't be either Sunak or Boris, but nobody else can get the 100 votes.
Even Blair, who probably came closest to the celebrity leader, was absolutely a politician first.
NEW THREAD
I get that politics can often be emotional, but usually that's just a shorthand for saying that the general public often make political decisions based on feelings, or impressions, rather than empirical judgement. I think it's unusual for people to be so emotionally invested in a politician in this way.
As to accessibility, I was thinking of the other great para-social relationships of our age, social media figures, YouTube celebs, Onlyfans models, podcasters, and Twitch Streamers. The thing the successful ones have in common is a perceived level of accessibility, interacting with fans on what seems, to the fan, to be a personal level. Boris is not churning out content for his fandom, is what I mean.
(Imagine:Boris with 1 (or tiny) MP vote wins the members' vote 50.1%-49.9%. Chaos. Boris PM. Tories split. Borisites win next GE with 325 seats......)
This is the kind of thing I was getting at about his fans on the previous thread. There's a weird desperation to it. That said, this guy is an MP and so may have an actual social relationship with Johnson.