Noa Hoffman @hoffman_noa Understand some MPs have been privately talking (very informally) about ways to possibly kill off the privileges committee to stop it causing trouble for Boris Johnson
https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1583395277326913538 In case anyone is wondering: the Privileges Committee inquiry into Johnson will continue unless and until a motion tabled by the government rescinding the original motion is carried by the House. I think it’s highly unlikely such a motion would carry... I don’t know any details but in the absence of such a motion I would expect the Committee to hear oral evidence throughout November and perhaps longer. It might report in January? It is a breach of the code to put undue pressure on such an inquiry.
Does the investigation end with a GE? Crucial point on next GE timing betting.
The Penny has dropped...she will not get 100 nominations (DYOR)
Its Boris v Rishi and the odds are wrong. Boris is the firm favourite .Back Boris
Why do you think so?
For myself the working is this (betting on next Tory leader, slightly different from next PM).
It is likely that only 2 will get 100 nominations. One of them will be Boris. If first (unlikely) he wins, full stop. If second he won't drop out, because he is Boris. The party members will vote Boris.
Rishi can't win if it goes to the members.
Therefore the betting should be Boris narrowly odds on; at the moment he is about 2/1. Rishi should be narrowly odds against.
Seems likely that Sunak loses the red wall badly but shores up support in the blue wall, while Boris shores up some support in red wall but loses badly in the blue wall and wider South / SW. Mordaunt who knows, probably a more muted impact in either direction.
One thing bothering me is, what's the positive case for Sunak?
The positive case for Boris is easy to state (even if misleading or outdated): he's a proven election winner, and the Tories' majority is his mandate.
The positive case for Sunak is that he represents the Cameron/Clegg style of politics and will make people who miss that feel less embarrassed to support the Tories.
The question is how viable that approach is given the political realignment since Cameron was PM.
Cameron/Clegg opposed the "jobs tax" and cut taxes on those working for a living, they didn't raise them.
Cameron/Clegg raised the tax-free earnings threshold significantly to help make work pay, they didn't freeze it at a time of high-inflation as a not so stealthy tax rise.
The Penny has dropped...she will not get 100 nominations (DYOR)
Its Boris v Rishi and the odds are wrong. Boris is the firm favourite .Back Boris
Why do you think so?
For myself the working is this (betting on next Tory leader, slightly different from next PM).
It is likely that only 2 will get 100 nominations. One of them will be Boris. If first (unlikely) he wins, full stop. If second he won't drop out, because he is Boris. The party members will vote Boris.
Rishi can't win if it goes to the members.
Therefore the betting should be Boris narrowly odds on; at the moment he is about 2/1. Rishi should be narrowly odds against.
Rishi outpolled Boris in a hypothetical members vote done via polling. Not sure why you are so sure he'd lose, albeit I do think Boris would be the favourite (sigh)
The Penny has dropped...she will not get 100 nominations (DYOR)
Its Boris v Rishi and the odds are wrong. Boris is the firm favourite .Back Boris
Why do you think so?
For myself the working is this (betting on next Tory leader, slightly different from next PM).
It is likely that only 2 will get 100 nominations. One of them will be Boris. If first (unlikely) he wins, full stop. If second he won't drop out, because he is Boris. The party members will vote Boris.
Rishi can't win if it goes to the members.
Therefore the betting should be Boris narrowly odds on; at the moment he is about 2/1. Rishi should be narrowly odds against.
One thing bothering me is, what's the positive case for Sunak?
He's a steadying hand. He knows the economy, which is the most important situation facing the country right now. You know, actual people rather than the febrile corridors of Westminster. So the markets will be happy. Which also means that mortgages will settle. And he will attempt to tackle inflation. He has also shown that he has a compassionate side. His giveaways might have infuriated the Nazis of Northcliffe but for most people it was well received.
He's the safest way of leaving the Conservatives with sufficient MPs after the election to rebuild their brand.
Johnson 'could' pull something off but he's far more likely to cause utter devastation ... to his party, to politics generally, and to the country.
The other relevant question is their instincts on foreign policy. For whatever reason, Johnson seems to have correctly perceived the stakes in Ukraine from the beginning, and that fact that it will shape the future world and European order.
If Sunak would serve in a Johnson cabinet again, maybe he could be Foreign Secretary?
((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 4m Obviously things could change if he was actually to win. But a significant number of Tory MPs are now telling me they simply will not serve as Conservative MPs if Boris returns. Not clear if that would be enough to bring down the government. But an early election is now viable.
I think most of these Tory MPs are chatting shit. If Johnson came back the majority of them would just bite the pillow and take it. And back him when the privileges committee finds against him, assuming that's even allowed to happen. If he comes back - and the banter heuristic says he surely will - then it will be his party to do what he wants with.
Most of the time people just don't follow through. Just think of all those once never Trumpers who now kiss the ring.
It was notable the talk of 'treason' when Boris was ousted. He literally believes they owe him fealty, not that he served at behest of the party.
We had at least one person on PB come out with the Dolchstoss theory of Mr Johnson's defeat - complete with stab in the back. And seemingly also revanchism, too.
Noa Hoffman @hoffman_noa Understand some MPs have been privately talking (very informally) about ways to possibly kill off the privileges committee to stop it causing trouble for Boris Johnson
https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1583395277326913538 In case anyone is wondering: the Privileges Committee inquiry into Johnson will continue unless and until a motion tabled by the government rescinding the original motion is carried by the House. I think it’s highly unlikely such a motion would carry... I don’t know any details but in the absence of such a motion I would expect the Committee to hear oral evidence throughout November and perhaps longer. It might report in January? It is a breach of the code to put undue pressure on such an inquiry.
Does the investigation end with a GE? Crucial point on next GE timing betting.
If Parliament were to uphold a Committee suspension of ten(?) days, then there would be an automatic recall petition. In the current climate, he'd lose his seat.
If the Tory MPs were to vote down a Committee report, then it would be Patterson x100. I don't think they would, but it's not entirely impossible.
@CWhittaker_MP For clarity my name appeared on @GuidoFawkes last night as a supporter of the @BorisJohnson campaign. At NO POINT have I contacted Guido. As DCW I have to maintain the integrity, authority and impartiality of the office. Correction from Guido expected and appreciated
Johnson would of course be favourite if it gets to the members but it’s not as clear cut as it say would have been a few years ago.
If Sunak tops the ballot and is say around 100 MPs clear of Johnson going to the members then I think they would come under some pressure given the clusterfxvk of the last few weeks to not risk a party split.
Not saying it would be enough to stop Johnson but the vote could be close causing even more problems for the Tories .
Seems likely that Sunak loses the red wall badly but shores up support in the blue wall, while Boris shores up some support in red wall but loses badly in the blue wall and wider South / SW. Mordaunt who knows, probably a more muted impact in either direction.
Bozo will give the Tories slightly more votes than other options in the Redwall but he isn’t going to give the Tories any seats there
Noa Hoffman @hoffman_noa Understand some MPs have been privately talking (very informally) about ways to possibly kill off the privileges committee to stop it causing trouble for Boris Johnson
Every time I think "it can't get any worse" MPs prove me wrong. It's almost as though they want the public to burn the Houses of Parliament to the ground.
Was interested by your post this morning (can’t find it now sadly) where you suggested a clear route to PM Starmer / 2023 GE.
How? Surely the Tories will do anything to avoid a GE even if they (in)formally split in the Commons?
Yeah even if a new party group emerged they'd avoid a no confidence trigger until they'd set up, registered, attracted member and donors and got some polling momentum, a few months work? Hence any formal split will likely come at recess i think to give a few days cover to get up and running
Johnson would of course be favourite if it gets to the members but it’s not as clear cut as it say would have been a few years ago.
If Sunak tops the ballot and is say around 100 MPs clear of Johnson going to the members then I think they would come under some pressure given the clusterfxvk of the last few weeks to not risk a party split.
Not saying it would be enough to stop Johnson but the vote could be close causing even more problems for the Tories .
That's a huge powerbase for Rishi and MPs opposed to Boris as well. Hard to see how Boris would be able to sustainably govern in that situation.
Would Boris even want to be PM if he had that few MPs backing him?
Noa Hoffman @hoffman_noa Understand some MPs have been privately talking (very informally) about ways to possibly kill off the privileges committee to stop it causing trouble for Boris Johnson
Every time I think "it can't get any worse" MPs prove me wrong. It's almost as though they want the public to burn the Houses of Parliament to the ground.
I rather think the MPs have ensured it will self-destruct ere long, with their faffing around for decades.
((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 4m Obviously things could change if he was actually to win. But a significant number of Tory MPs are now telling me they simply will not serve as Conservative MPs if Boris returns. Not clear if that would be enough to bring down the government. But an early election is now viable.
I think most of these Tory MPs are chatting shit. If Johnson came back the majority of them would just bite the pillow and take it. And back him when the privileges committee finds against him, assuming that's even allowed to happen. If he comes back - and the banter heuristic says he surely will - then it will be his party to do what he wants with.
Most of the time people just don't follow through. Just think of all those once never Trumpers who now kiss the ring.
It was notable the talk of 'treason' when Boris was ousted. He literally believes they owe him fealty, not that he served at behest of the party.
We had at least one person on PB come out with the Dolchstoss theory of Mr Johnson's defeat - complete with stab in the back. And seemingly also revanchism, too.
@CWhittaker_MP For clarity my name appeared on @GuidoFawkes last night as a supporter of the @BorisJohnson campaign. At NO POINT have I contacted Guido. As DCW I have to maintain the integrity, authority and impartiality of the office. Correction from Guido expected and appreciated
Johnson would of course be favourite if it gets to the members but it’s not as clear cut as it say would have been a few years ago.
If Sunak tops the ballot and is say around 100 MPs clear of Johnson going to the members then I think they would come under some pressure given the clusterfxvk of the last few weeks to not risk a party split.
Not saying it would be enough to stop Johnson but the vote could be close causing even more problems for the Tories .
I agree. It is plausible that Boris loses with the members in that scenario. I don’t have much faith, but I don’t think it’s as clear cut as people make out.
Remember Rishi outperformed the polling vs Truss too. There has been a tendency to think he is so toxic to the members anyone will beat him. I don’t think that’s true and certainly not now after the Trussterf**k.
@CWhittaker_MP For clarity my name appeared on @GuidoFawkes last night as a supporter of the @BorisJohnson campaign. At NO POINT have I contacted Guido. As DCW I have to maintain the integrity, authority and impartiality of the office. Correction from Guido expected and appreciated
Noa Hoffman @hoffman_noa Understand some MPs have been privately talking (very informally) about ways to possibly kill off the privileges committee to stop it causing trouble for Boris Johnson
Do they not remember last time around with Patterson ? If they want to wipe the party out entirely, then by all means have a go.
- At least Boris has a mandate and we won't need a GE - economic damage is worse then a few parties - Truss has been subject to unfair abuse.
I think the first two points are valid, not sure about the last one but clearly some people have that view.
My old uni friends are aghast and incredulous at the prospect of a Boris return, much in the way that they have been aghast at everything that has happened in British politics since 2016. There isn't much in the way of useful insights from them.
- At least Boris has a mandate and we won't need a GE - economic damage is worse then a few parties - Truss has been subject to unfair abuse.
I think the first two points are valid, not sure about the last one but clearly some people have that view.
My old uni friends are aghast and incredulous at the prospect of a Boris return, much in the way that they have been aghast at everything that has happened in British politics since 2016. There isn't much in the way of useful insights from them.
Boris gets given a pass by quite a few I know on the basis that he demonstrably hates Putin and is very pro Ukraine. Especially but only so from this in marriages with Eastern Europeans. Quite hard to predict how all this plays out really.
The Penny has dropped...she will not get 100 nominations (DYOR)
Its Boris v Rishi and the odds are wrong. Boris is the firm favourite .Back Boris
Why do you think so?
For myself the working is this (betting on next Tory leader, slightly different from next PM).
It is likely that only 2 will get 100 nominations. One of them will be Boris. If first (unlikely) he wins, full stop. If second he won't drop out, because he is Boris. The party members will vote Boris.
Rishi can't win if it goes to the members.
Therefore the betting should be Boris narrowly odds on; at the moment he is about 2/1. Rishi should be narrowly odds against.
I don't know.
If the MPs vote something like 220 Rishi, 130 Boris then the membership will be the ones coming under enormous pressure.
It's not really conceivable that Johnson could successfully govern as PM if he loses the MPs vote by any kind of large margin. Arguably he needs a majority of MPs. Which he won't get.
Sure, so deaths are probably worse than what was reported... but comebackkid was trying to suggest the opposite, that deaths have been over-counted, that COVID-19 wasn't really a problem.
Excess deaths during the pandemic are something like 22 million now. Lots of countries undercounted.
Great. So we concur that comebackkid was talking nonsense.
It is the mantra of the lunatic fringe. They have a series of progressively more ridiculous claims that they run through.
1. There were no excess deaths and Covid was just another mild flu strain 2. There were excess deaths but they were caused by all those people who died as a consequence of the actions taken to deal with the fictional covid issue - Mask wearing causing respiratory problems, old people being left to die during lock down, people unable to see doctors and so dying of other things 3. There were excess deaths but they were caused by the vaccine which was designed to kill off large numbers of people because of New World Order/The Great Reset/Bill Gates
Youtube is filled with this garbage and it is lapped up by the conspiracy theorists.
Johnson would of course be favourite if it gets to the members but it’s not as clear cut as it say would have been a few years ago.
If Sunak tops the ballot and is say around 100 MPs clear of Johnson going to the members then I think they would come under some pressure given the clusterfxvk of the last few weeks to not risk a party split.
Not saying it would be enough to stop Johnson but the vote could be close causing even more problems for the Tories .
I agree. It is plausible that Boris loses with the members in that scenario. I don’t have much faith, but I don’t think it’s as clear cut as people make out.
Remember Rishi outperformed the polling vs Truss too. There has been a tendency to think he is so toxic to the members anyone will beat him. I don’t think that’s true and certainly not now after the Trussterf**k.
Will there be time to organise a Sunak vs Johnson debate ?
Only one I think.
Truss was quite weak in the debates vs Sunak and she still won. We know Boris is more popular than Truss ever was amongst the membership - so perhaps a closer result than people think but Boris still likely wins if it gets there.
Is anyone tracking flights back from the Caribbean this morning; I'm assuming a press conference in the terminal followed by a cavalcade of cars to Westminster while helicopters fly overhead. Cheering crowds thronging the route. Boris in flowery shorts (Villebrequin natch) and flip flops.
@CWhittaker_MP For clarity my name appeared on @GuidoFawkes last night as a supporter of the @BorisJohnson campaign. At NO POINT have I contacted Guido. As DCW I have to maintain the integrity, authority and impartiality of the office. Correction from Guido expected and appreciated
One thing bothering me is, what's the positive case for Sunak?...
He is not a buffoon with a proven history of lying and is not under investigation by the Common's authorities?
That is a negative case against Boris, not a positive case for Sunak.
Positives for Sunak: 1. Decent presentational skills. The only one to risk Andrew Neil!. 2. Substance is going to matter as the problems are large. He does seem fairly intelligent and possibly about the right level of caution. Conveys grasp of issues and attention to detail but a bit of optimism in his demeanour. 3. Ethnicity will be a positive against Starmer. Although the economy is by far the most important thing Labour have risk and high probability of losing support on "culture wars" issues.
Not saying he can turn things around but he will close gap. Some Tory voters are still under the spell of Johnson and will be against Sunak as being disloyal and too much of a Blob member BUT where are they going to go if faced with the real prospect of a Labour majority?
In case anyone is wondering: the Privileges Committee inquiry into Johnson will continue unless and until a motion tabled by the government rescinding the original motion is carried by the House. I think it’s highly unlikely such a motion would carry. 1/2
I don’t know any details but in the absence of such a motion I would expect the Committee to hear oral evidence throughout November and perhaps longer. It might report in January? It is a breach of the code to put undue pressure on such an inquiry. 2/2
Noa Hoffman @hoffman_noa Understand some MPs have been privately talking (very informally) about ways to possibly kill off the privileges committee to stop it causing trouble for Boris Johnson
Do they not remember last time around with Patterson ? If they want to wipe the party out entirely, then by all means have a go.
They can't help themselves, its right out of the public school bully boy playbook.
Sure, so deaths are probably worse than what was reported... but comebackkid was trying to suggest the opposite, that deaths have been over-counted, that COVID-19 wasn't really a problem.
Excess deaths during the pandemic are something like 22 million now. Lots of countries undercounted.
Great. So we concur that comebackkid was talking nonsense.
It is the mantra of the lunatic fringe. They have a series of progressively more ridiculous claims that they run through.
1. There were no excess deaths and Covid was just another mild flu strain 2. There were excess deaths but they were caused by all those people who died as a consequence of the actions taken to deal with the fictional covid issue - Mask wearing causing respiratory problems, old people being left to die during lock down, people unable to see doctors and so dying of other things 3. There were excess deaths but they were caused by the vaccine which was designed to kill off large numbers of people because of New World Order/The Great Reset/Bill Gates
Youtube is filled with this garbage and it is lapped up by the conspiracy theorists.
Indeed.
Those who take the lunatic fringe end up reinforcing those in favour of lockdowns etc, because it acts as if the only way to oppose them is through total falsehoods.
I take the polar opposite view of "comebackkid"
There were excess deaths, and these were caused by Covid, but that doesn't justify taking away our Civil Liberties or restricting education etc
The Penny has dropped...she will not get 100 nominations (DYOR)
Its Boris v Rishi and the odds are wrong. Boris is the firm favourite .Back Boris
Why do you think so?
For myself the working is this (betting on next Tory leader, slightly different from next PM).
It is likely that only 2 will get 100 nominations. One of them will be Boris. If first (unlikely) he wins, full stop. If second he won't drop out, because he is Boris. The party members will vote Boris.
Rishi can't win if it goes to the members.
Therefore the betting should be Boris narrowly odds on; at the moment he is about 2/1. Rishi should be narrowly odds against.
- At least Boris has a mandate and we won't need a GE - economic damage is worse then a few parties - Truss has been subject to unfair abuse.
I think the first two points are valid, not sure about the last one but clearly some people have that view.
My old uni friends are aghast and incredulous at the prospect of a Boris return, much in the way that they have been aghast at everything that has happened in British politics since 2016. There isn't much in the way of useful insights from them.
Boris gets given a pass by quite a few I know on the basis that he demonstrably hates Putin and is very pro Ukraine. Especially but only so from this in marriages with Eastern Europeans. Quite hard to predict how all this plays out really.
Not all that clear cut as per the deletion of the tweet. Johnson's links with Russian oligarchs including Lebedev is not playing well in Ukraine.
'Proposals to honour one of Edinburgh’s most famous feminists with a statue on the Royal Mile have been put on hold after a bitter row about the choice of sculptor.
The anger erupted after the trustees suspended their open call for designs and instead commissioned Stoddart, the King’s sculptor in ordinary in Scotland, even though he had not originally applied. The competition was intended to promote an emerging artist who was inspired by Inglis’s life and work.'
Apparently all because of QE2's funeral, so they wanted something to suit for the royal mile or something, without even seeing what folk had to offer.
More than a bit shit for the folk who have been working up designs, and somewhat unfair IMO as Mr Stoddart has already bagged the previous Hume and Smith commissions on the RM (which I like actually).
One thing bothering me is, what's the positive case for Sunak?...
He is not a buffoon with a proven history of lying and is not under investigation by the Common's authorities?
That is a negative case against Boris, not a positive case for Sunak.
Positives for Sunak: 1. Decent presentational skills. The only one to risk Andrew Neil!. 2. Substance is going to matter as the problems are large. He does seem fairly intelligent and possibly about the right level of caution. Conveys grasp of issues and attention to detail but a bit of optimism in his demeanour. 3. Ethnicity will be a positive against Starmer. Although the economy is by far the most important thing Labour have risk and high probability of losing support on "culture wars" issues.
Not saying he can turn things around but he will close gap. Some Tory voters are still under the spell of Johnson and will be against Sunak as being disloyal and too much of a Blob member BUT where are they going to go if faced with the real prospect of a Labour majority?
That's the best answer yet, thanks. Although I'm dubious about the Tories playing Labour's games on identity politics. Truss was an A Lister, after all...
- At least Boris has a mandate and we won't need a GE - Crashing the pound is worse then a few parties - Truss was 'thrown under a bus' and has been subject to unfair abuse.
I think the first two points are valid, not sure about the last one but clearly some people have that view.
My old uni friends are aghast and incredulous at the prospect of a Boris return, much in the way that they have been aghast at everything that has happened in British politics since 2016. There isn't much in the way of useful insights from them.
Your second point is crucial. If the public mood starts to be 'Was Boris all that bad in comparison to the horror show that followed?' and the Tories get wind of that mood, then the question will be: why not give Boris another go? A non-Boris candidate will be as much a leap in the dark as Truss was. Boris can be very politically successful. To me, the logic points to Boris.
Johnson would of course be favourite if it gets to the members but it’s not as clear cut as it say would have been a few years ago.
If Sunak tops the ballot and is say around 100 MPs clear of Johnson going to the members then I think they would come under some pressure given the clusterfxvk of the last few weeks to not risk a party split.
Not saying it would be enough to stop Johnson but the vote could be close causing even more problems for the Tories .
I agree. It is plausible that Boris loses with the members in that scenario. I don’t have much faith, but I don’t think it’s as clear cut as people make out.
Remember Rishi outperformed the polling vs Truss too. There has been a tendency to think he is so toxic to the members anyone will beat him. I don’t think that’s true and certainly not now after the Trussterf**k.
Will there be time to organise a Sunak vs Johnson debate ?
Only one I think.
Truss was quite weak in the debates vs Sunak and she still won. We know Boris is more popular than Truss ever was amongst the membership - so perhaps a closer result than people think but Boris still likely wins if it gets there.
The issue is the numbers.
If MPs split roughly 50-50 or even 40-60 (in favour of Rishi over Boris), then Boris will probably run away with it IMHO.
The question comes if Boris has, say 110 votes and Rishi has nearer 250. At that point the will of the Parliamentary Party is very clear - and there is then an argument that the members should get behind the person who has the clear backing of a majority of MPs.
I could still imagine the membership choosing Boris in that scenario but there is a chance (maybe small) given the chaos in the party that they may act a little more responsibly.
One thing bothering me is, what's the positive case for Sunak?...
He is not a buffoon with a proven history of lying and is not under investigation by the Common's authorities?
That is a negative case against Boris, not a positive case for Sunak.
Positives for Sunak: 1. Decent presentational skills. The only one to risk Andrew Neil!. 2. Substance is going to matter as the problems are large. He does seem fairly intelligent and possibly about the right level of caution. Conveys grasp of issues and attention to detail but a bit of optimism in his demeanour. 3. Ethnicity will be a positive against Starmer. Although the economy is by far the most important thing Labour have risk and high probability of losing support on "culture wars" issues.
Not saying he can turn things around but he will close gap. Some Tory voters are still under the spell of Johnson and will be against Sunak as being disloyal and too much of a Blob member BUT where are they going to go if faced with the real prospect of a Labour majority?
Not sure I agree with you on his presentational skills. In the last race he came over as hectoring, patronising and rude much of the time - both with interviewers and the other candidates.
I am not saying this knocks him off the top spot but if he is relying on his presentational skills then I have to say he turns off as many people as he attracts.
@CWhittaker_MP For clarity my name appeared on @GuidoFawkes last night as a supporter of the @BorisJohnson campaign. At NO POINT have I contacted Guido. As DCW I have to maintain the integrity, authority and impartiality of the office. Correction from Guido expected and appreciated
Guido relies far too much on tittle tattle and third hand rumours for his figures to be trustworthy on THIS occasion (I emphasise).
Don't get me wrong, I think Boris 'might' make 100 but I don't think it's anything like certain that he will.
What makes you think Whittaker isn't backing Boris?
That's asking to prove a negative. The burden of proof should be on those who say he is.
I just happen to think Guido is right.
Even though he's demonstrably wrong as per the proof below?
Read the tweet carefully - Whitaker doesn't say he isn't backing Boris, he only says he hadn't told Guido that he's backing Boris.
Yep I know that. But you based your whole argument on the line that Guido's declared backers for Boris are authentic. This demonstrates that to be rubbish.
Applying 'argumentum ex silentio' to a spreadsheet of declared backers really isn't, erm, solid ground.
Johnson would of course be favourite if it gets to the members but it’s not as clear cut as it say would have been a few years ago.
If Sunak tops the ballot and is say around 100 MPs clear of Johnson going to the members then I think they would come under some pressure given the clusterfxvk of the last few weeks to not risk a party split.
Not saying it would be enough to stop Johnson but the vote could be close causing even more problems for the Tories .
I agree. It is plausible that Boris loses with the members in that scenario. I don’t have much faith, but I don’t think it’s as clear cut as people make out.
Remember Rishi outperformed the polling vs Truss too. There has been a tendency to think he is so toxic to the members anyone will beat him. I don’t think that’s true and certainly not now after the Trussterf**k.
Will there be time to organise a Sunak vs Johnson debate ?
Only one I think.
Truss was quite weak in the debates vs Sunak and she still won. We know Boris is more popular than Truss ever was amongst the membership - so perhaps a closer result than people think but Boris still likely wins if it gets there.
The issue is the numbers.
If MPs split roughly 50-50 or even 40-60 (in favour of Rishi over Boris), then Boris will probably run away with it IMHO.
The question comes if Boris has, say 110 votes and Rishi has nearer 250. At that point the will of the Parliamentary Party is very clear - and there is then an argument that the members should get behind the person who has the clear backing of a majority of MPs.
They might do the exact opposite though, in revenge for two of their choices - Boris and Liz - being chucked out by the PCP.
- At least Boris has a mandate and we won't need a GE - Crashing the pound is worse then a few parties - Truss was 'thrown under a bus' and has been subject to unfair abuse.
I think the first two points are valid, not sure about the last one but clearly some people have that view.
My old uni friends are aghast and incredulous at the prospect of a Boris return, much in the way that they have been aghast at everything that has happened in British politics since 2016. There isn't much in the way of useful insights from them.
Your second point is crucial. If the public mood starts to be 'Was Boris all that bad in comparison to the horror show that followed?' and the Tories get wind of that mood, then the question will be: why not give Boris another go? A non-Boris candidate will be as much a leap in the dark as Truss was. Boris can be very politically successful. To me, the logic points to Boris.
Boris as bad as that would be probably guarantees the Tories an 'at worst' 150 seats They'd be back to polling near to 30% immediately i think How depressing
Noa Hoffman @hoffman_noa Understand some MPs have been privately talking (very informally) about ways to possibly kill off the privileges committee to stop it causing trouble for Boris Johnson
https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1583395277326913538 In case anyone is wondering: the Privileges Committee inquiry into Johnson will continue unless and until a motion tabled by the government rescinding the original motion is carried by the House. I think it’s highly unlikely such a motion would carry... I don’t know any details but in the absence of such a motion I would expect the Committee to hear oral evidence throughout November and perhaps longer. It might report in January? It is a breach of the code to put undue pressure on such an inquiry.
Does the investigation end with a GE? Crucial point on next GE timing betting.
If Parliament were to uphold a Committee suspension of ten(?) days, then there would be an automatic recall petition. In the current climate, he'd lose his seat.
If the Tory MPs were to vote down a Committee report, then it would be Patterson x100. I don't think they would, but it's not entirely impossible.
I've always assumed the most likely outcome would be a sanction below the trigger level. Proving intent to mislead being harder than that there was misleading.
Johnson would of course be favourite if it gets to the members but it’s not as clear cut as it say would have been a few years ago.
If Sunak tops the ballot and is say around 100 MPs clear of Johnson going to the members then I think they would come under some pressure given the clusterfxvk of the last few weeks to not risk a party split.
Not saying it would be enough to stop Johnson but the vote could be close causing even more problems for the Tories .
I agree. It is plausible that Boris loses with the members in that scenario. I don’t have much faith, but I don’t think it’s as clear cut as people make out.
Remember Rishi outperformed the polling vs Truss too. There has been a tendency to think he is so toxic to the members anyone will beat him. I don’t think that’s true and certainly not now after the Trussterf**k.
Will there be time to organise a Sunak vs Johnson debate ?
Only one I think.
Truss was quite weak in the debates vs Sunak and she still won. We know Boris is more popular than Truss ever was amongst the membership - so perhaps a closer result than people think but Boris still likely wins if it gets there.
The issue is the numbers.
If MPs split roughly 50-50 or even 40-60 (in favour of Rishi over Boris), then Boris will probably run away with it IMHO.
The question comes if Boris has, say 110 votes and Rishi has nearer 250. At that point the will of the Parliamentary Party is very clear - and there is then an argument that the members should get behind the person who has the clear backing of a majority of MPs.
In that case it is not clear what the point of being a member is, other than rubber stamping selections made by the bosses in London.
The Penny has dropped...she will not get 100 nominations (DYOR)
Its Boris v Rishi and the odds are wrong. Boris is the firm favourite .Back Boris
Why do you think so?
For myself the working is this (betting on next Tory leader, slightly different from next PM).
It is likely that only 2 will get 100 nominations. One of them will be Boris. If first (unlikely) he wins, full stop. If second he won't drop out, because he is Boris. The party members will vote Boris.
Rishi can't win if it goes to the members.
Therefore the betting should be Boris narrowly odds on; at the moment he is about 2/1. Rishi should be narrowly odds against.
The implication is Penny should be long odds.
I've laid her down to the max last night and this morning. Four figure sum.
Noa Hoffman @hoffman_noa Understand some MPs have been privately talking (very informally) about ways to possibly kill off the privileges committee to stop it causing trouble for Boris Johnson
Some MPs talked about this publicly when Johnson was still PM. Hopefully there's a majority in the Commons to ensure any such attempt is blocked.
Is anyone tracking flights back from the Caribbean this morning; I'm assuming a press conference in the terminal followed by a cavalcade of cars to Westminster while helicopters fly overhead. Cheering crowds thronging the route. Boris in flowery shorts (Villebrequin natch) and flip flops.
Johnson would of course be favourite if it gets to the members but it’s not as clear cut as it say would have been a few years ago.
If Sunak tops the ballot and is say around 100 MPs clear of Johnson going to the members then I think they would come under some pressure given the clusterfxvk of the last few weeks to not risk a party split.
Not saying it would be enough to stop Johnson but the vote could be close causing even more problems for the Tories .
I agree. It is plausible that Boris loses with the members in that scenario. I don’t have much faith, but I don’t think it’s as clear cut as people make out.
Remember Rishi outperformed the polling vs Truss too. There has been a tendency to think he is so toxic to the members anyone will beat him. I don’t think that’s true and certainly not now after the Trussterf**k.
Will there be time to organise a Sunak vs Johnson debate ?
Only one I think.
Truss was quite weak in the debates vs Sunak and she still won. We know Boris is more popular than Truss ever was amongst the membership - so perhaps a closer result than people think but Boris still likely wins if it gets there.
The issue is the numbers.
If MPs split roughly 50-50 or even 40-60 (in favour of Rishi over Boris), then Boris will probably run away with it IMHO.
The question comes if Boris has, say 110 votes and Rishi has nearer 250. At that point the will of the Parliamentary Party is very clear - and there is then an argument that the members should get behind the person who has the clear backing of a majority of MPs.
They might do the exact opposite though, in revenge for two of their choices - Boris and Liz - being chucked out by the PCP.
They very much might. In which case they’ll blow up the Tory government. But if that’s what they want to do thems the breaks.
Sure, so deaths are probably worse than what was reported... but comebackkid was trying to suggest the opposite, that deaths have been over-counted, that COVID-19 wasn't really a problem.
Excess deaths during the pandemic are something like 22 million now. Lots of countries undercounted.
Great. So we concur that comebackkid was talking nonsense.
It is the mantra of the lunatic fringe. They have a series of progressively more ridiculous claims that they run through.
1. There were no excess deaths and Covid was just another mild flu strain 2. There were excess deaths but they were caused by all those people who died as a consequence of the actions taken to deal with the fictional covid issue - Mask wearing causing respiratory problems, old people being left to die during lock down, people unable to see doctors and so dying of other things 3. There were excess deaths but they were caused by the vaccine which was designed to kill off large numbers of people because of New World Order/The Great Reset/Bill Gates
Youtube is filled with this garbage and it is lapped up by the conspiracy theorists.
Indeed.
Those who take the lunatic fringe end up reinforcing those in favour of lockdowns etc, because it acts as if the only way to oppose them is through total falsehoods.
I take the polar opposite view of "comebackkid"
There were excess deaths, and these were caused by Covid, but that doesn't justify taking away our Civil Liberties or restricting education etc
And that is a perfectly reasonable position to take. It is an argument about policy not facts. It is a million miles from the conspiracy theorists and their wild claims.
One thing bothering me is, what's the positive case for Sunak?...
He is not a buffoon with a proven history of lying and is not under investigation by the Common's authorities?
That is a negative case against Boris, not a positive case for Sunak.
Positives for Sunak: 1. Decent presentational skills. The only one to risk Andrew Neil!. 2. Substance is going to matter as the problems are large. He does seem fairly intelligent and possibly about the right level of caution. Conveys grasp of issues and attention to detail but a bit of optimism in his demeanour. 3. Ethnicity will be a positive against Starmer. Although the economy is by far the most important thing Labour have risk and high probability of losing support on "culture wars" issues.
Not saying he can turn things around but he will close gap. Some Tory voters are still under the spell of Johnson and will be against Sunak as being disloyal and too much of a Blob member BUT where are they going to go if faced with the real prospect of a Labour majority?
Not sure I agree with you on his presentational skills. In the last race he came over as hectoring, patronising and rude much of the time - both with interviewers and the other candidates.
I am not saying this knocks him off the top spot but if he is relying on his presentational skills then I have to say he turns off as many people as he attracts.
He did not do great and is fairly lightweight. But hes probably ok.
If Boris won I suspect he'd be fine with it if there was a split in the party and it brought the government down into an early GE.
I don't think he'd necessarily volunteer for one right from the off and there'd be no immediate desire from the rest of the party for it, but if it came about immediately you could shrug your shoulders and easily take the view of "well, either I immediately get voted back in with another personal mandate, or I'm offski again and then let someone else be LotO and I'll go earn some money".
Rather than pretty much the same calculation in no more than a couple of years' time anyway.
Is anyone tracking flights back from the Caribbean this morning; I'm assuming a press conference in the terminal followed by a cavalcade of cars to Westminster while helicopters fly overhead. Cheering crowds thronging the route. Boris in flowery shorts (Villebrequin natch) and flip flops.
Noa Hoffman @hoffman_noa Understand some MPs have been privately talking (very informally) about ways to possibly kill off the privileges committee to stop it causing trouble for Boris Johnson
https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1583395277326913538 In case anyone is wondering: the Privileges Committee inquiry into Johnson will continue unless and until a motion tabled by the government rescinding the original motion is carried by the House. I think it’s highly unlikely such a motion would carry... I don’t know any details but in the absence of such a motion I would expect the Committee to hear oral evidence throughout November and perhaps longer. It might report in January? It is a breach of the code to put undue pressure on such an inquiry.
Does the investigation end with a GE? Crucial point on next GE timing betting.
If Parliament were to uphold a Committee suspension of ten(?) days, then there would be an automatic recall petition. In the current climate, he'd lose his seat.
If the Tory MPs were to vote down a Committee report, then it would be Patterson x100. I don't think they would, but it's not entirely impossible.
Agreed but that does not answer my question.
Even if the committee of the next parliament is expected to continue investigations of the last parliament, I expect Boris will take the line of "let the public decide if faff about parties is more important than delivering stability and prosperity for the Great British people" and then expect his party to vote to cancel the investigation post a general election on the basis that the public have decided.
Hence if Boris wins we get a GE early next year or even late this year to see off the report.
Johnson would of course be favourite if it gets to the members but it’s not as clear cut as it say would have been a few years ago.
If Sunak tops the ballot and is say around 100 MPs clear of Johnson going to the members then I think they would come under some pressure given the clusterfxvk of the last few weeks to not risk a party split.
Not saying it would be enough to stop Johnson but the vote could be close causing even more problems for the Tories .
I agree. It is plausible that Boris loses with the members in that scenario. I don’t have much faith, but I don’t think it’s as clear cut as people make out.
Remember Rishi outperformed the polling vs Truss too. There has been a tendency to think he is so toxic to the members anyone will beat him. I don’t think that’s true and certainly not now after the Trussterf**k.
Will there be time to organise a Sunak vs Johnson debate ?
Only one I think.
Truss was quite weak in the debates vs Sunak and she still won. We know Boris is more popular than Truss ever was amongst the membership - so perhaps a closer result than people think but Boris still likely wins if it gets there.
The issue is the numbers.
If MPs split roughly 50-50 or even 40-60 (in favour of Rishi over Boris), then Boris will probably run away with it IMHO.
The question comes if Boris has, say 110 votes and Rishi has nearer 250. At that point the will of the Parliamentary Party is very clear - and there is then an argument that the members should get behind the person who has the clear backing of a majority of MPs.
I could still imagine the membership choosing Boris in that scenario but there is a chance (maybe small) given the chaos in the party that they may act a little more responsibly.
Maybe. I think a rule in future could be if its that far apart no members vote, since it could lead to members forcing a leader on the parliamentary party and that never works out well.
@CWhittaker_MP For clarity my name appeared on @GuidoFawkes last night as a supporter of the @BorisJohnson campaign. At NO POINT have I contacted Guido. As DCW I have to maintain the integrity, authority and impartiality of the office. Correction from Guido expected and appreciated
Guido relies far too much on tittle tattle and third hand rumours for his figures to be trustworthy on THIS occasion (I emphasise).
Don't get me wrong, I think Boris 'might' make 100 but I don't think it's anything like certain that he will.
What makes you think Whittaker isn't backing Boris?
That's asking to prove a negative. The burden of proof should be on those who say he is.
I just happen to think Guido is right.
Even though he's demonstrably wrong as per the proof below?
Read the tweet carefully - Whitaker doesn't say he isn't backing Boris, he only says he hadn't told Guido that he's backing Boris.
Yep I know that. But you based your whole argument on the line that Guido's declared backers for Boris are authentic. This demonstrates that to be rubbish.
Applying 'argumentum ex silentio' to a spreadsheet of declared backers really isn't, erm, solid ground.
I didn't make any argument about whether the backers were authentic?
Sure, so deaths are probably worse than what was reported... but comebackkid was trying to suggest the opposite, that deaths have been over-counted, that COVID-19 wasn't really a problem.
Excess deaths during the pandemic are something like 22 million now. Lots of countries undercounted.
Great. So we concur that comebackkid was talking nonsense.
It is the mantra of the lunatic fringe. They have a series of progressively more ridiculous claims that they run through.
1. There were no excess deaths and Covid was just another mild flu strain 2. There were excess deaths but they were caused by all those people who died as a consequence of the actions taken to deal with the fictional covid issue - Mask wearing causing respiratory problems, old people being left to die during lock down, people unable to see doctors and so dying of other things 3. There were excess deaths but they were caused by the vaccine which was designed to kill off large numbers of people because of New World Order/The Great Reset/Bill Gates
Youtube is filled with this garbage and it is lapped up by the conspiracy theorists.
Indeed.
Those who take the lunatic fringe end up reinforcing those in favour of lockdowns etc, because it acts as if the only way to oppose them is through total falsehoods.
I take the polar opposite view of "comebackkid"
There were excess deaths, and these were caused by Covid, but that doesn't justify taking away our Civil Liberties or restricting education etc
there are also excess deaths now in the UK and around the world and have been all 2022- This is not to do with covid but nobody in government is doing much to find out. At best it may be to do with all the cancelled appoitments during 2020 and 21
- At least Boris has a mandate and we won't need a GE - Crashing the pound is worse then a few parties - Truss was 'thrown under a bus' and has been subject to unfair abuse.
I think the first two points are valid, not sure about the last one but clearly some people have that view.
My old uni friends are aghast and incredulous at the prospect of a Boris return, much in the way that they have been aghast at everything that has happened in British politics since 2016. There isn't much in the way of useful insights from them.
Your second point is crucial. If the public mood starts to be 'Was Boris all that bad in comparison to the horror show that followed?' and the Tories get wind of that mood, then the question will be: why not give Boris another go? A non-Boris candidate will be as much a leap in the dark as Truss was. Boris can be very politically successful. To me, the logic points to Boris.
That is the danger. I get the logic of the MPs backing him, but even an unknown is worth the risk. It won't be like Truss as the next leader will be too economically constrained.
- At least Boris has a mandate and we won't need a GE - economic damage is worse then a few parties - Truss has been subject to unfair abuse.
I think the first two points are valid, not sure about the last one but clearly some people have that view.
My old uni friends are aghast and incredulous at the prospect of a Boris return, much in the way that they have been aghast at everything that has happened in British politics since 2016. There isn't much in the way of useful insights from them.
Boris gets given a pass by quite a few I know on the basis that he demonstrably hates Putin and is very pro Ukraine. Especially but only so from this in marriages with Eastern Europeans. Quite hard to predict how all this plays out really.
Not all that clear cut as per the deletion of the tweet. Johnson's links with Russian oligarchs including Lebedev is not playing well in Ukraine.
I mean the bit in bold is just plain untrue and I say this as someone who doesn't want Boris Johnson anywhere near government again.
Boris Johnson wouldn't have plaques and streets in Ukraine named after him if the Ukrainian public was discussing Lebedev and Russian donors to the Tory party. All the average Ukrainian cares about is getting weapons and support to drive out Russia and Boris met their expectations.
The Penny has dropped...she will not get 100 nominations (DYOR)
Its Boris v Rishi and the odds are wrong. Boris is the firm favourite .Back Boris
Why do you think so?
For myself the working is this (betting on next Tory leader, slightly different from next PM).
It is likely that only 2 will get 100 nominations. One of them will be Boris. If first (unlikely) he wins, full stop. If second he won't drop out, because he is Boris. The party members will vote Boris.
Rishi can't win if it goes to the members.
Therefore the betting should be Boris narrowly odds on; at the moment he is about 2/1. Rishi should be narrowly odds against.
Taking your second scenario, where only Sunak and Johnson get more than 100 votes, Sunak then wins a head-to-head in an indicative vote amongst MPs and Johnson doesn't drop out........
What happens then at No 10? Presumably, with a clear preference amongst MPs, Truss still steps down immediately as she has said she would. Sunak then gets to be acting PM until the member ballot is completed, because the choice of MPs is then unequivocal and the country needs to be governed in the meantime. So a couple of weeks for Sunak in No 10 at least?
If Sunak does get to walk through the doors of No 10, with all the accompanying symbolism, I think the prospect of the membership throwing out the choice of MPs is certainly not nailed on. Are Conservative members as disrespectful to their MPs as Labour members proved to be under Corbyn? Maybe, maybe not. But if they did then vote for Johnson, Sunak would break Truss's short lived record for the PM with the shortest tenure. So the chaos may not be done with just yet.
Noa Hoffman @hoffman_noa Understand some MPs have been privately talking (very informally) about ways to possibly kill off the privileges committee to stop it causing trouble for Boris Johnson
Do they not remember last time around with Patterson ? If they want to wipe the party out entirely, then by all means have a go.
If they believe only Boris can save their seats they are pretty much obliged (in their minds) to do anything to save him. He's already established his defence of why he'd gut it.
Johnson would of course be favourite if it gets to the members but it’s not as clear cut as it say would have been a few years ago.
If Sunak tops the ballot and is say around 100 MPs clear of Johnson going to the members then I think they would come under some pressure given the clusterfxvk of the last few weeks to not risk a party split.
Not saying it would be enough to stop Johnson but the vote could be close causing even more problems for the Tories .
I agree. It is plausible that Boris loses with the members in that scenario. I don’t have much faith, but I don’t think it’s as clear cut as people make out.
Remember Rishi outperformed the polling vs Truss too. There has been a tendency to think he is so toxic to the members anyone will beat him. I don’t think that’s true and certainly not now after the Trussterf**k.
Will there be time to organise a Sunak vs Johnson debate ?
Only one I think.
Truss was quite weak in the debates vs Sunak and she still won. We know Boris is more popular than Truss ever was amongst the membership - so perhaps a closer result than people think but Boris still likely wins if it gets there.
The issue is the numbers.
If MPs split roughly 50-50 or even 40-60 (in favour of Rishi over Boris), then Boris will probably run away with it IMHO.
The question comes if Boris has, say 110 votes and Rishi has nearer 250. At that point the will of the Parliamentary Party is very clear - and there is then an argument that the members should get behind the person who has the clear backing of a majority of MPs.
In that case it is not clear what the point of being a member is, other than rubber stamping selections made by the bosses in London.
Oh come on! It’s a two way process. If the membership are being responsible they should be bearing in mind the level of parliamentary support behind a potential leader - it is common sense. In the same vein the MPs should be putting two candidates through that are acceptable to them regardless of the member vote. That system has not worked very well, but there you go.
The Tory Party functioned perfectly well before members were given the vote re the leader.
FWIW I agree they should have an input in choosing the leader in opposition. In government I believe it should be down to the MPs, but that’s by the by.
This is an interesting Twitter thread. TL;DR - Boris has never lost an election. If he becomes PM again he will be a loser. Why risk it when he can earn mega-bucks now?
The very energetic "Draft Boris" campaign is sort of like Hamlet without a prince.
The Penny has dropped...she will not get 100 nominations (DYOR)
Its Boris v Rishi and the odds are wrong. Boris is the firm favourite .Back Boris
Why do you think so?
For myself the working is this (betting on next Tory leader, slightly different from next PM).
It is likely that only 2 will get 100 nominations. One of them will be Boris. If first (unlikely) he wins, full stop. If second he won't drop out, because he is Boris. The party members will vote Boris.
Rishi can't win if it goes to the members.
Therefore the betting should be Boris narrowly odds on; at the moment he is about 2/1. Rishi should be narrowly odds against.
I don't know.
If the MPs vote something like 220 Rishi, 130 Boris then the membership will be the ones coming under enormous pressure.
It's not really conceivable that Johnson could successfully govern as PM if he loses the MPs vote by any kind of large margin. Arguably he needs a majority of MPs. Which he won't get.
Remember Liz Truss ...
- Johnson will make the 100 and be on the ballot. - If he polls 2nd he will insist on the online vote of the venerables. - In which case he wins, regardless of the MP split.
The above are approaching 'accepted wisdom' status in places but there is imo a significant doubt against every one of them.
3.2 is crazy short. Topped up my lay (again!) and feeling tremendous gratitude to all the mug punters out there.
Noa Hoffman @hoffman_noa Understand some MPs have been privately talking (very informally) about ways to possibly kill off the privileges committee to stop it causing trouble for Boris Johnson
Every time I think "it can't get any worse" MPs prove me wrong. It's almost as though they want the public to burn the Houses of Parliament to the ground.
Given how they are screwing up maintenance and repair of the building that might well be true.
Johnson would of course be favourite if it gets to the members but it’s not as clear cut as it say would have been a few years ago.
If Sunak tops the ballot and is say around 100 MPs clear of Johnson going to the members then I think they would come under some pressure given the clusterfxvk of the last few weeks to not risk a party split.
Not saying it would be enough to stop Johnson but the vote could be close causing even more problems for the Tories .
I agree. It is plausible that Boris loses with the members in that scenario. I don’t have much faith, but I don’t think it’s as clear cut as people make out.
Remember Rishi outperformed the polling vs Truss too. There has been a tendency to think he is so toxic to the members anyone will beat him. I don’t think that’s true and certainly not now after the Trussterf**k.
Will there be time to organise a Sunak vs Johnson debate ?
Only one I think.
Truss was quite weak in the debates vs Sunak and she still won. We know Boris is more popular than Truss ever was amongst the membership - so perhaps a closer result than people think but Boris still likely wins if it gets there.
I don't actually think Truss was weak in the debates.
It was odd, as I assumed she would be due to her frequent rabbit-in-the-headlights performances before, and odder as she immediately reverted to such performances after the campaign.
But in the actual debates she performed surprisingly solidly (albeit she made unwise policy commitments that she even more unwisely then tried to fulfill).
The Penny has dropped...she will not get 100 nominations (DYOR)
Its Boris v Rishi and the odds are wrong. Boris is the firm favourite .Back Boris
Why do you think so?
For myself the working is this (betting on next Tory leader, slightly different from next PM).
It is likely that only 2 will get 100 nominations. One of them will be Boris. If first (unlikely) he wins, full stop. If second he won't drop out, because he is Boris. The party members will vote Boris.
Rishi can't win if it goes to the members.
Therefore the betting should be Boris narrowly odds on; at the moment he is about 2/1. Rishi should be narrowly odds against.
Taking your second scenario, where only Sunak and Johnson get more than 100 votes, Sunak then wins a head-to-head in an indicative vote amongst MPs and Johnson doesn't drop out........
What happens then at No 10? Presumably, with a clear preference amongst MPs, Truss still steps down immediately as she has said she would. Sunak then gets to be acting PM until the member ballot is completed, because the choice of MPs is then unequivocal and the country needs to be governed in the meantime. So a couple of weeks for Sunak in No 10 at least?
If Sunak does get to walk through the doors of No 10, with all the accompanying symbolism, I think the prospect of the membership throwing out the choice of MPs is certainly not nailed on. Are Conservative members as disrespectful to their MPs as Labour members proved to be under Corbyn? Maybe, maybe not. But if they did then vote for Johnson, Sunak would break Truss's short lived record for the PM with the shortest tenure. So the chaos may not be done with just yet.
Sunak refuses to step aside for Boris. Simple. Party leader has no constitutional right to the PM job. Starmer props Sunak up in return for a March election.
This is an interesting Twitter thread. TL;DR - Boris has never lost an election. If he becomes PM again he will be a loser. Why risk it when he can earn mega-bucks now?
The very energetic "Draft Boris" campaign is sort of like Hamlet without a prince.
The only caveat is that political leaders have different mindsets compared to normal people, very little self doubt. But I do agree, he'd be mad to come back right now.
This is an interesting Twitter thread. TL;DR - Boris has never lost an election. If he becomes PM again he will be a loser. Why risk it when he can earn mega-bucks now?
The very energetic "Draft Boris" campaign is sort of like Hamlet without a prince.
Its far too soon for the great Churchillian comeback narrative (if that is what Boris wants). His wife's horrid wallpaper is still fresh on the walls of the Downing street flat.
I agree with this. Boris or Bust is very unhelpful for the Tories.
Jacob-how on earth can that slogan be remotely helpful to the Party given the strong possibility that the next PM will not be Boris? I would not use the tag line #BorisandBust and you really should think this through properly if you have any interest in party unity https://twitter.com/timloughton/status/1583407950580023297
This is an interesting Twitter thread. TL;DR - Boris has never lost an election. If he becomes PM again he will be a loser. Why risk it when he can earn mega-bucks now?
The very energetic "Draft Boris" campaign is sort of like Hamlet without a prince.
He will believe he can win the next election, though. Of course he will go for it. I predict Johnson trails Sunak by a big margin with MPs but gets >100. Then wins 52/48 with members, just for bantz.
I agree with this. Boris or Bust is very unhelpful for the Tories.
Jacob-how on earth can that slogan be remotely helpful to the Party given the strong possibility that the next PM will not be Boris? I would not use the tag line #BorisandBust and you really should think this through properly if you have any interest in party unity https://twitter.com/timloughton/status/1583407950580023297
He never has. He was a serial rebel, them when in influence made up rules like it was unacceptable for MPs to remove a leader.
I agree with this. Boris or Bust is very unhelpful for the Tories.
Jacob-how on earth can that slogan be remotely helpful to the Party given the strong possibility that the next PM will not be Boris? I would not use the tag line #BorisandBust and you really should think this through properly if you have any interest in party unity https://twitter.com/timloughton/status/1583407950580023297
Sure, so deaths are probably worse than what was reported... but comebackkid was trying to suggest the opposite, that deaths have been over-counted, that COVID-19 wasn't really a problem.
Excess deaths during the pandemic are something like 22 million now. Lots of countries undercounted.
Great. So we concur that comebackkid was talking nonsense.
It is the mantra of the lunatic fringe. They have a series of progressively more ridiculous claims that they run through.
1. There were no excess deaths and Covid was just another mild flu strain 2. There were excess deaths but they were caused by all those people who died as a consequence of the actions taken to deal with the fictional covid issue - Mask wearing causing respiratory problems, old people being left to die during lock down, people unable to see doctors and so dying of other things 3. There were excess deaths but they were caused by the vaccine which was designed to kill off large numbers of people because of New World Order/The Great Reset/Bill Gates
Youtube is filled with this garbage and it is lapped up by the conspiracy theorists.
Indeed.
Those who take the lunatic fringe end up reinforcing those in favour of lockdowns etc, because it acts as if the only way to oppose them is through total falsehoods.
I take the polar opposite view of "comebackkid"
There were excess deaths, and these were caused by Covid, but that doesn't justify taking away our Civil Liberties or restricting education etc
there are also excess deaths now in the UK and around the world and have been all 2022- This is not to do with covid but nobody in government is doing much to find out. At best it may be to do with all the cancelled appoitments during 2020 and 21
No the excess deaths are highest in young people 0 to 24 who dont normally need medical care
I agree with this. Boris or Bust is very unhelpful for the Tories.
Jacob-how on earth can that slogan be remotely helpful to the Party given the strong possibility that the next PM will not be Boris? I would not use the tag line #BorisandBust and you really should think this through properly if you have any interest in party unity https://twitter.com/timloughton/status/1583407950580023297
Who on earth thinks JRM cares a jot about party unity?
Johnson would of course be favourite if it gets to the members but it’s not as clear cut as it say would have been a few years ago.
If Sunak tops the ballot and is say around 100 MPs clear of Johnson going to the members then I think they would come under some pressure given the clusterfxvk of the last few weeks to not risk a party split.
Not saying it would be enough to stop Johnson but the vote could be close causing even more problems for the Tories .
I agree. It is plausible that Boris loses with the members in that scenario. I don’t have much faith, but I don’t think it’s as clear cut as people make out.
Remember Rishi outperformed the polling vs Truss too. There has been a tendency to think he is so toxic to the members anyone will beat him. I don’t think that’s true and certainly not now after the Trussterf**k.
Will there be time to organise a Sunak vs Johnson debate ?
Only one I think.
Truss was quite weak in the debates vs Sunak and she still won. We know Boris is more popular than Truss ever was amongst the membership - so perhaps a closer result than people think but Boris still likely wins if it gets there.
I don't actually think Truss was weak in the debates.
It was odd, as I assumed she would be due to her frequent rabbit-in-the-headlights performances before, and odder as she immediately reverted to such performances after the campaign.
But in the actual debates she performed surprisingly solidly (albeit she made unwise policy commitments that she even more unwisely then tried to fulfill).
“I think if Boris gets the 100 nominations, he'll win the members vote. That's just a forecast of what will happen, and not a very insightful one. But it is what I think.”
The Tories are absolutely insane if they allow Boris to get back in. We all knew before he became PM that he had an elastic relationship with the truth and couldn't keep it in his pants, but the positive spin was that he would do the "hype man" job and they would get a decent team to actually run the show. In reality, he wasn't good at any of it, not good at running the country, not good at messaging, so many poor moves politically, useless at PMQs, etc. Those COVID press conferences he was embarrassingly bad, often watch through your fingers cringe level bad.
Sunak is a poor man's Cameron (who was a poor man's Blair) and I think moves like the NI++ were terrible ideas, but given the poor standards across the board he is easily as good as Starmer.
Comments
Was interested by your post this morning (can’t find it now sadly) where you suggested a clear route to PM Starmer / 2023 GE.
How? Surely the Tories will do anything to avoid a GE even if they (in)formally split in the Commons?
Would they hold Clacton, Castle Point or South Holland in a BE right now ?
It is likely that only 2 will get 100 nominations.
One of them will be Boris.
If first (unlikely) he wins, full stop.
If second he won't drop out, because he is Boris.
The party members will vote Boris.
Rishi can't win if it goes to the members.
Therefore the betting should be Boris narrowly odds on; at the moment he is about 2/1. Rishi should be narrowly odds against.
Whether they attempt to will be telling, whether they can pull it off even more telling
Cameron/Clegg raised the tax-free earnings threshold significantly to help make work pay, they didn't freeze it at a time of high-inflation as a not so stealthy tax rise.
Sunak is continuity Brown, not Cameron.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63344752
If Sunak would serve in a Johnson cabinet again, maybe he could be Foreign Secretary?
Byelection confirmed.
In the current climate, he'd lose his seat.
If the Tory MPs were to vote down a Committee report, then it would be Patterson x100.
I don't think they would, but it's not entirely impossible.
If Sunak tops the ballot and is say around 100 MPs clear of Johnson going to the members then I think they would come under some pressure given the clusterfxvk of the last few weeks to not risk a party split.
Not saying it would be enough to stop Johnson but the vote could be close causing even more problems for the Tories .
Labour MP Christian Matheson should be suspended from Commons for four weeks for "serious sexual misconduct", a parliamentary watchdog has said.
The Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards upheld two allegations of sexual misconduct against Matheson by a former member of his staff.
If he is suspended for four weeks, a recall petition will be opened in his constituency of City of Chester.
If 10% of the electorate sign the petition within six weeks, the seat will be declared vacant and a by-election held.
Would Boris even want to be PM if he had that few MPs backing him?
Remember Rishi outperformed the polling vs Truss too. There has been a tendency to think he is so toxic to the members anyone will beat him. I don’t think that’s true and certainly not now after the Trussterf**k.
If you want another option, he pointed out the outcomes of Liz Truss's policies exactly right. He clearly has some wits unlike many in his Party.
If they want to wipe the party out entirely, then by all means have a go.
- At least Boris has a mandate and we won't need a GE
- economic damage is worse then a few parties
- Truss has been subject to unfair abuse.
I think the first two points are valid, not sure about the last one but clearly some people have that view.
My old uni friends are aghast and incredulous at the prospect of a Boris return, much in the way that they have been aghast at everything that has happened in British politics since 2016. There isn't much in the way of useful insights from them.
If the MPs vote something like 220 Rishi, 130 Boris then the membership will be the ones coming under enormous pressure.
It's not really conceivable that Johnson could successfully govern as PM if he loses the MPs vote by any kind of large margin. Arguably he needs a majority of MPs. Which he won't get.
Remember Liz Truss ...
1. There were no excess deaths and Covid was just another mild flu strain
2. There were excess deaths but they were caused by all those people who died as a consequence of the actions taken to deal with the fictional covid issue - Mask wearing causing respiratory problems, old people being left to die during lock down, people unable to see doctors and so dying of other things
3. There were excess deaths but they were caused by the vaccine which was designed to kill off large numbers of people because of New World Order/The Great Reset/Bill Gates
Youtube is filled with this garbage and it is lapped up by the conspiracy theorists.
Only one I think.
Truss was quite weak in the debates vs Sunak and she still won. We know Boris is more popular than Truss ever was amongst the membership - so perhaps a closer result than people think but Boris still likely wins if it gets there.
1. Decent presentational skills. The only one to risk Andrew Neil!.
2. Substance is going to matter as the problems are large. He does seem fairly intelligent and possibly about the right level of caution. Conveys grasp of issues and attention to detail but a bit of optimism in his demeanour.
3. Ethnicity will be a positive against Starmer. Although the economy is by far the most important thing Labour have risk and high probability of losing support on "culture wars" issues.
Not saying he can turn things around but he will close gap. Some Tory voters are still under the spell of Johnson and will be against Sunak as being disloyal and too much of a Blob member BUT where are they going to go if faced with the real prospect of a Labour majority?
I don’t know any details but in the absence of such a motion I would expect the Committee to hear oral evidence throughout November and perhaps longer. It might report in January? It is a breach of the code to put undue pressure on such an inquiry. 2/2
https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1583395280355221504
Those who take the lunatic fringe end up reinforcing those in favour of lockdowns etc, because it acts as if the only way to oppose them is through total falsehoods.
I take the polar opposite view of "comebackkid"
There were excess deaths, and these were caused by Covid, but that doesn't justify taking away our Civil Liberties or restricting education etc
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11340075/Ukraines-official-Twitter-account-DELETES-post-backing-Boris-Johnsons-return-Britains-PM.html
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/oct/21/edinburgh-suffragette-elsie-inglis-statue-put-on-hold-bitter-row-sculptor
'Proposals to honour one of Edinburgh’s most famous feminists with a statue on the Royal Mile have been put on hold after a bitter row about the choice of sculptor.
The anger erupted after the trustees suspended their open call for designs and instead commissioned Stoddart, the King’s sculptor in ordinary in Scotland, even though he had not originally applied. The competition was intended to promote an emerging artist who was inspired by Inglis’s life and work.'
Apparently all because of QE2's funeral, so they wanted something to suit for the royal mile or something, without even seeing what folk had to offer.
More than a bit shit for the folk who have been working up designs, and somewhat unfair IMO as Mr Stoddart has already bagged the previous Hume and Smith commissions on the RM (which I like actually).
If MPs split roughly 50-50 or even 40-60 (in favour of Rishi over Boris), then Boris will probably run away with it IMHO.
The question comes if Boris has, say 110 votes and Rishi has nearer 250. At that point the will of the Parliamentary Party is very clear - and there is then an argument that the members should get behind the person who has the clear backing of a majority of MPs.
I could still imagine the membership choosing Boris in that scenario but there is a chance (maybe small) given the chaos in the party that they may act a little more responsibly.
I am not saying this knocks him off the top spot but if he is relying on his presentational skills then I have to say he turns off as many people as he attracts.
Applying 'argumentum ex silentio' to a spreadsheet of declared backers really isn't, erm, solid ground.
They'd be back to polling near to 30% immediately i think
How depressing
Don’t know who this Sean chap is but I’m in Moab, Utah
(5 poll moving average lead changes of 5%+ with no further movement for 1 calendar month)
12/12/19 GE19 Con+11.8 lead
3/2/20 honeymoon +16.8
2/4/20 COVID solidarity +22.8
6/5-29/5/20 unwind and Cummings breach +5.2
28/10/20 winter wave +0.0
12/2/21 vaccine bounce +5.0
12/5/21 May election bounce +10.6
25/7/21 third wave drift +4.8
12/11-10/12/21 drift and partygate start --5.4
14/1/22 partygate -10.8
17/2/22 windback -4.8
7/7-21/8/22 Pincher / Boris resignation / leadership election -10.4
29/9-19/10/22 financial statement / Truss leadership crisis -32.6 (ongoing)
I don't think he'd necessarily volunteer for one right from the off and there'd be no immediate desire from the rest of the party for it, but if it came about immediately you could shrug your shoulders and easily take the view of "well, either I immediately get voted back in with another personal mandate, or I'm offski again and then let someone else be LotO and I'll go earn some money".
Rather than pretty much the same calculation in no more than a couple of years' time anyway.
IDS on Johnson:
"If Boris enters the fray, it will be like one of those Netflix series repeats: you watch even though you know how it ends."
He can then call a GE just by royal prerogative without a vote.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dX06xqN6710
Even if the committee of the next parliament is expected to continue investigations of the last parliament, I expect Boris will take the line of "let the public decide if faff about parties is more important than delivering stability and prosperity for the Great British people" and then expect his party to vote to cancel the investigation post a general election on the basis that the public have decided.
Hence if Boris wins we get a GE early next year or even late this year to see off the report.
Boris Johnson wouldn't have plaques and streets in Ukraine named after him if the Ukrainian public was discussing Lebedev and Russian donors to the Tory party. All the average Ukrainian cares about is getting weapons and support to drive out Russia and Boris met their expectations.
What happens then at No 10? Presumably, with a clear preference amongst MPs, Truss still steps down immediately as she has said she would. Sunak then gets to be acting PM until the member ballot is completed, because the choice of MPs is then unequivocal and the country needs to be governed in the meantime. So a couple of weeks for Sunak in No 10 at least?
If Sunak does get to walk through the doors of No 10, with all the accompanying symbolism, I think the prospect of the membership throwing out the choice of MPs is certainly not nailed on. Are Conservative members as disrespectful to their MPs as Labour members proved to be under Corbyn? Maybe, maybe not. But if they did then vote for Johnson, Sunak would break Truss's short lived record for the PM with the shortest tenure. So the chaos may not be done with just yet.
The Tory Party functioned perfectly well before members were given the vote re the leader.
FWIW I agree they should have an input in choosing the leader in opposition. In government I believe it should be down to the MPs, but that’s by the by.
The very energetic "Draft Boris" campaign is sort of like Hamlet without a prince.
Even assuming Boris ever wants to return as PM (a second stint, just like Churchill), is this the right moment *for him*? So little upside, so much downside.
https://twitter.com/Greg_Callus/status/1583403341589417990
- If he polls 2nd he will insist on the online vote of the venerables.
- In which case he wins, regardless of the MP split.
The above are approaching 'accepted wisdom' status in places but there is imo a significant doubt against every one of them.
3.2 is crazy short. Topped up my lay (again!) and feeling tremendous gratitude to all the mug punters out there.
It was odd, as I assumed she would be due to her frequent rabbit-in-the-headlights performances before, and odder as she immediately reverted to such performances after the campaign.
But in the actual debates she performed surprisingly solidly (albeit she made unwise policy commitments that she even more unwisely then tried to fulfill).
Jacob-how on earth can that slogan be remotely helpful to the Party given the strong possibility that the next PM will not be Boris? I would not use the tag line #BorisandBust and you really should think this through properly if you have any interest in party unity
https://twitter.com/timloughton/status/1583407950580023297
I predict Johnson trails Sunak by a big margin with MPs but gets >100. Then wins 52/48 with members, just for bantz.
So thats a worry if Boris (or Sunak less likely) doesn't agree with it.
Interest in party unity ?
Which Jacob is he talking to ?
https://twitter.com/stefanbednar/status/1583408588399091713
“I think if Boris gets the 100 nominations, he'll win the members vote. That's just a forecast of what will happen, and not a very insightful one. But it is what I think.”
https://twitter.com/jimmy_wales/status/1583411440924643329?s=46&t=kyMehDfrEGGz6_DYWDxyGA
Sunak is a poor man's Cameron (who was a poor man's Blair) and I think moves like the NI++ were terrible ideas, but given the poor standards across the board he is easily as good as Starmer.
https://twitter.com/DrAseemMalhotra/status/1582595328867729409?s=20&t=yEi89_cuwAbjMfyyR2miSA