what I find interesting is that we haven't got any firm flight information for Boris coming home. Usually they would have the flight number and tracking the airplane back.
But nothing firm. Which makes me wonder if he's got a flight yet.
A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
Has Boris's polling and the by-election defeats earlier this year escaped your attention?
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
He's more likely to act as Gozer the Destructor.
the tories need to gamble though now ,otherwise certain to lose - the only gamble left is Johnson - he may even be able to be perceived as a fresh start with the slate wiped clean (after been sin-binned) - He is actually good at enthusing so the fresh start narrative plays into his strength there
If there's something Boris isn't it's a fresh start.
Boris becoming PM could lose the Tories office in weeks.
How? The Tories have a majority?
If you mean because the Tories are divided, then do you think those divisions are magically going to go away if Rishi wins?
Lots of Tories will quit the whip and refuse to serve under Boris if he wins.
Just look at how many (even ERG) ministers quite en mass last time rather than serve under him. Why do you think that opinion was so universal?
Everyone has got to understand he is kryptonite to the Conservative party.
And you don't think Sunak is kryptonite to others in the Conservative Party?
If you want a unity candidate then pick someone like Penny who can appeal to different sides of the divide. If the party doubles-down on Sunak versus Boris then there's no good answer there that either will be able to, or deserves to, unite the party and win.
No, I don't. I expect Sunak to look to include all wings of the party.
It's only the ultras who'd have a problem with him (i still don't know why given the guy campaigned for Leave) and he will have to give jobs to the fruitcakes and it's a greater courtesy than Boris or Truss would grant the other way round.
My objection to Sunak has nothing to do with Leave or Remain.
Its that he put up National Insurance, while wanting to cut Income Tax by 4p.
A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
Has Boris's polling and the by-election defeats earlier this year escaped your attention?
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
He's more likely to act as Gozer the Destructor.
the tories need to gamble though now ,otherwise certain to lose - the only gamble left is Johnson - he may even be able to be perceived as a fresh start with the slate wiped clean (after been sin-binned) - He is actually good at enthusing so the fresh start narrative plays into his strength there
If there's something Boris isn't it's a fresh start.
Boris becoming PM could lose the Tories office in weeks.
How? The Tories have a majority?
If you mean because the Tories are divided, then do you think those divisions are magically going to go away if Rishi wins?
Lots of Tories will quit the whip and refuse to serve under Boris if he wins.
Just look at how many (even ERG) ministers quite en mass last time rather than serve under him. Why do you think that opinion was so universal?
Everyone has got to understand he is kryptonite to the Conservative party.
And you don't think Sunak is kryptonite to others in the Conservative Party?
If you want a unity candidate then pick someone like Penny who can appeal to different sides of the divide. If the party doubles-down on Sunak versus Boris then there's no good answer there that either will be able to, or deserves to, unite the party and win.
If Boris keeps Hunt as Chancellor, does that soothe the Sunak wing?
If Hunt had anything about him, he would resign the moment Bozo is declared PM.
(Big "if" there.)
He was willing to work for Truss for the sake of his country…
He was willing to work for Boris in 2019, he flounced because he thought Defence Secretary was beneath him, which isn't a good look.
Surovikin clearly understands the political intent for his campaign. As noted in the interview, the desired outcome is “that Ukraine was independent from the West and NATO, a friendly state to Russia.”
what I find interesting is that we haven't got any firm flight information for Boris coming home. Usually they would have the flight number and tracking the airplane back.
But nothing firm. Which makes me wonder if he's got a flight yet.
Perhaps the cheque hasn't cleared from his latest speaking engagement so having to try and get pleb class ticket and they are all very busy?
A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
Has Boris's polling and the by-election defeats earlier this year escaped your attention?
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
He's more likely to act as Gozer the Destructor.
the tories need to gamble though now ,otherwise certain to lose - the only gamble left is Johnson - he may even be able to be perceived as a fresh start with the slate wiped clean (after been sin-binned) - He is actually good at enthusing so the fresh start narrative plays into his strength there
If there's something Boris isn't it's a fresh start.
Boris becoming PM could lose the Tories office in weeks.
How? The Tories have a majority?
If you mean because the Tories are divided, then do you think those divisions are magically going to go away if Rishi wins?
Lots of Tories will quit the whip and refuse to serve under Boris if he wins.
Just look at how many (even ERG) ministers quite en mass last time rather than serve under him. Why do you think that opinion was so universal?
Everyone has got to understand he is kryptonite to the Conservative party.
And you don't think Sunak is kryptonite to others in the Conservative Party?
If you want a unity candidate then pick someone like Penny who can appeal to different sides of the divide. If the party doubles-down on Sunak versus Boris then there's no good answer there that either will be able to, or deserves to, unite the party and win.
No, I don't. I expect Sunak to look to include all wings of the party.
It's only the ultras who'd have a problem with him (i still don't know why given the guy campaigned for Leave) and he will have to give jobs to the fruitcakes and it's a greater courtesy than Boris or Truss would grant the other way round.
My objection to Sunak has nothing to do with Leave or Remain.
Its that he put up National Insurance, while wanting to cut Income Tax by 4p.
Anyone who does that isn't fit to be PM.
Remind me, who was PM when Sunak did that?
Boris, who I don't think is fit to be PM either as a result, which is why I'm backing #PM4PM instead, why?
A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
Has Boris's polling and the by-election defeats earlier this year escaped your attention?
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
He's more likely to act as Gozer the Destructor.
the tories need to gamble though now ,otherwise certain to lose - the only gamble left is Johnson - he may even be able to be perceived as a fresh start with the slate wiped clean (after been sin-binned) - He is actually good at enthusing so the fresh start narrative plays into his strength there
If there's something Boris isn't it's a fresh start.
Boris becoming PM could lose the Tories office in weeks.
How? The Tories have a majority?
If you mean because the Tories are divided, then do you think those divisions are magically going to go away if Rishi wins?
Lots of Tories will quit the whip and refuse to serve under Boris if he wins.
Just look at how many (even ERG) ministers quite en mass last time rather than serve under him. Why do you think that opinion was so universal?
Everyone has got to understand he is kryptonite to the Conservative party.
And you don't think Sunak is kryptonite to others in the Conservative Party?
If you want a unity candidate then pick someone like Penny who can appeal to different sides of the divide. If the party doubles-down on Sunak versus Boris then there's no good answer there that either will be able to, or deserves to, unite the party and win.
No, I don't. I expect Sunak to look to include all wings of the party.
It's only the ultras who'd have a problem with him (i still don't know why given the guy campaigned for Leave) and he will have to give jobs to the fruitcakes and it's a greater courtesy than Boris or Truss would grant the other way round.
My objection to Sunak has nothing to do with Leave or Remain.
Its that he put up National Insurance, while wanting to cut Income Tax by 4p.
I suspect I’m not alone in having a sense of deep deep internal relief, knowing that The Boris is returning to the throne of Fair England
I imagine many churches will toll bells out of sheer jubilation, lofty maypoles will be erected in our towns, and the children will play their most joyous games, the king’s Jews will bake celebratory matzos in Stokey, and gays will embrace Muslims in the boulevards of Birmingham
GOD BE PRAISED
Free drink on the journos' train again today? Complete with mescal cactus and caterpillars in it?
As an aside, not certain but if the fool does become PM again I'm thinking Lib Dem is perhaps my likeliest vote, as they have (I'll check if I go that way) neither far left fruitcakes nor utterly lunatic Johnsons.
Labour not impossible, though I'm concerned about how much of the far left remains.
As for the Conservatives: if they elect Boris Johnson then unless Labour get led by a far left maniac again, I'm not voting for them.
I suspect I’m not alone in having a sense of deep deep internal relief, knowing that The Boris is returning to the throne of Fair England
I imagine many churches will toll bells out of sheer jubilation, lofty maypoles will be erected in our towns, and the children will play their most joyous games, the king’s Jews will bake celebratory matzos in Stokey, and gays will embrace Muslims in the boulevards of Birmingham
GOD BE PRAISED
Free drink on the journos' train again today? Complete with mescal cactus and caterpillars in it?
Boris coming back is starting to feel inevitable now. 😒
Vox pops on Sky surprisingly positive "most want him back" according to the presenter and "yes he made mistakes but who hasn't" seems to be a common refrain.
This all seems very bizarre.
Of course lots of people want him back. He tells low information voters what they desperately want to hear, and persuades just enough of them that it's true and he's definitely the man to make it happen. No austerity. Levelling up. Banishing the doomsters and gloomsters. Britain is great. Rule Britannia!
They don't want the reality that 12 years of the Tories have brought us. Well, they're going to get it anyway.
I do wish people would stop sneering at people who voted the wrong way as "low information", it's a really ugly look.
Most people are low information voters. I'm not sneering. Low information voters cut across all classes, incomes, educational levels, intelligence. Most people pay no attention at all. That's why Johnson has been so effective. He shamelessly spins webs of disinformation that anyone who pays the slightest attention can see if just a load of tosh. But to those who don't pay much attention he sounds very plausible. Trumpian. He gets just enough people to vote to make themselves poorer, and not even realise it. Cheer it, even.
You certainly come across as sneering - "those people who know so much less than me".
Boris coming back is starting to feel inevitable now. 😒
Vox pops on Sky surprisingly positive "most want him back" according to the presenter and "yes he made mistakes but who hasn't" seems to be a common refrain.
This all seems very bizarre.
Of course lots of people want him back. He tells low information voters what they desperately want to hear, and persuades just enough of them that it's true and he's definitely the man to make it happen. No austerity. Levelling up. Banishing the doomsters and gloomsters. Britain is great. Rule Britannia!
They don't want the reality that 12 years of the Tories have brought us. Well, they're going to get it anyway.
I do wish people would stop sneering at people who voted the wrong way as "low information", it's a really ugly look.
Most people are low information voters. I'm not sneering. Low information voters cut across all classes, incomes, educational levels, intelligence. Most people pay no attention at all. That's why Johnson has been so effective. He shamelessly spins webs of disinformation that anyone who pays the slightest attention can see if just a load of tosh. But to those who don't pay much attention he sounds very plausible. Trumpian. He gets just enough people to vote to make themselves poorer, and not even realise it. Cheer it, even.
Boris is someone who's very popular with those who've never met him or worked with him.
Has Boris gone favourite just off the back of Ben Wallace's statement? Who was Boris's campaign manager the 1st time round?
That's ridiculous. He's a clear lay now.
Disagree - he is deservedly favourite.
The polling shows he is the choice of the Tory membership.He still had 211 MPs backing him when he resigned - so he should get 100+ MPs to support him to be leader again.
No he didn't. He got 211 in the confidence vote in June, but the reason he went in July is it had clearly worsened for him such that, if there could have been an immediate confidence vote (and they were planning to change the rules to allow it) he'd have been well, well short of that.
Additionally, voting "yes" in a confidence vote isn't at all saying you'd nominate Johnson in a leadership election tomorrow. It's saying you don't want to go through a leadership election with a highly uncertain outcome (and the MPs who reasoned that way weren't wrong as it turns out).
These are good points. I guess we will see soon enough. I think Boris Johnson gets to 100. He gets his personal vote + the anti-Sunak lot.
Boris coming back is starting to feel inevitable now. 😒
Vox pops on Sky surprisingly positive "most want him back" according to the presenter and "yes he made mistakes but who hasn't" seems to be a common refrain.
This all seems very bizarre.
Of course lots of people want him back. He tells low information voters what they desperately want to hear, and persuades just enough of them that it's true and he's definitely the man to make it happen. No austerity. Levelling up. Banishing the doomsters and gloomsters. Britain is great. Rule Britannia!
They don't want the reality that 12 years of the Tories have brought us. Well, they're going to get it anyway.
I do wish people would stop sneering at people who voted the wrong way as "low information", it's a really ugly look.
Most people are low information voters. I'm not sneering. Low information voters cut across all classes, incomes, educational levels, intelligence. Most people pay no attention at all. That's why Johnson has been so effective. He shamelessly spins webs of disinformation that anyone who pays the slightest attention can see if just a load of tosh. But to those who don't pay much attention he sounds very plausible. Trumpian. He gets just enough people to vote to make themselves poorer, and not even realise it. Cheer it, even.
Boris is someone who's very popular with those who've never met him or worked with him.
which is 99.9% of the electorate (in that category of closeness to him)
Imo its over for the Tory party as is. The only question is how they split - Boris wins and there is a centrist split away under Rishi/Hunt (even though BJ is a centrist economically himself). Rishi/Penny wins and a Farage, Johnson, Spartan vehicle emerges. The latter is slightly less likely but still imo the most likely outcome
Not under FPTP, with PR maybe
I think you are almost certainly correct, but we are in new territory. My view is the Tory vote won't be this low (but I could be wrong) and also even if they do get wiped out they will have the organisation and money to recover (but again I could be wrong).
It is very, very hard to break the two main parties under FPTP, but it has happened in Scotland. As you say with PR a realignment is not only possible, but in my opinion likely for all parties.
The 2 main parties haven't even broken in Scotland, just they are now the 2 main Unionist parties with the SNP taking almost all nationalist votes
No no no, the Tories haven’t been broken in Scotland.
If the SC rules against the Scottish government holding an independence referendum and Sturgeon rules out UDI expect Salmond to stand Alba candidates against the SNP in every Scottish Westminster constituency at the next general election on a UDI ticket
UDI would not be enforceable anyway in that the Unionist population in Scotland would reject its legitimacy and continue to follow Westminster. Such an act would justify Direct Rule - as happened re- Stormont in Spring 1972 - and a return to pre-Devolution arrangements.
Lis Truss to trouser (or maybe skirt) £115K a year as a ex-pm- nice !
She would not "trouser" (or indeed skirt) it. The money is a public duty cost allowance for legitimately incurred, fully evidenced, salary and cost expenses of running an office of the ex-PM.
Should she run such an office as predecessors have done, having been PM for the mere blinking of an eye? In my view, no, definitely not.
However, the way it is presented as some kind of pension plan, or as enrriching her personally is not accurate or fair at all.
Boris obvs gets the numbers and then loses to Rishi in the members' vote.
That 43% will grow because it was a sensible 43% and enough of the 57% will have been frightened enough by the Truss experiment to want someone vaguely sane.
Have you met what’s left of the Tory party membership - they are all mad and don’t care about anyone except themselves
If Bozo gets in to a membership vote he will win by Nile’s
I fear a repeat of the situation so passionately described in Charles Walker's speech about Truss supporters, now applying to Boris. The talentless Tory MPs who backed Truss in the hope and expectation of preferment may largely transfer their support to Boris and get him across the 100 supporter threshold.
This country deserves so much better than this self-serving shower of nobodies.
We are being held to ransom by a cabal of circa 1/3 of Tory MPs (and a few thousand folks who gave the Tory Party some cash to have a say in leadership contests) who have disproportionate influence over our government.
Depressing doesn’t begin to describe it. The only consolation I can take is that I am hopeful the electorate won’t forget any of this and will doom the party for a generation. I hope.
The consensus amongst my circle, including people who normally vote Tory or don't discuss politics in public, is the Conservatives are out of road. They should call an election and let Labour have a go at government.
This nonsense is not playing well with normal people.
I think one way or another we're heading for an election and a Labour government before too much longer.
I’m not saying it’s likely. But have you considered the possibility that Boris keeps the show on the road until next spring, gets a bounce from helping beat Putin and then bags another majority with the new boundaries helping him across the line?
Anything is possible but I think the most likely scenario is that whoever becomes PM (either Boris and Rishi) the party splits into rival factions and the government collapses paving the way for another winter general election which Labour wins... However, I'm not buying the polls putting Labour 30% ahead and I think they win with a very small majority or no majority at all...
Then as they attempt to govern with barely a majority, no money and economic crisis rocking the UK and global economy their government too quickly proceeds to fall apart...
A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
Has Boris's polling and the by-election defeats earlier this year escaped your attention?
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
He's more likely to act as Gozer the Destructor.
the tories need to gamble though now ,otherwise certain to lose - the only gamble left is Johnson - he may even be able to be perceived as a fresh start with the slate wiped clean (after been sin-binned) - He is actually good at enthusing so the fresh start narrative plays into his strength there
If there's something Boris isn't it's a fresh start.
Boris becoming PM could lose the Tories office in weeks.
How? The Tories have a majority?
If you mean because the Tories are divided, then do you think those divisions are magically going to go away if Rishi wins?
Lots of Tories will quit the whip and refuse to serve under Boris if he wins.
Just look at how many (even ERG) ministers quite en mass last time rather than serve under him. Why do you think that opinion was so universal?
Everyone has got to understand he is kryptonite to the Conservative party.
And you don't think Sunak is kryptonite to others in the Conservative Party?
If you want a unity candidate then pick someone like Penny who can appeal to different sides of the divide. If the party doubles-down on Sunak versus Boris then there's no good answer there that either will be able to, or deserves to, unite the party and win.
If Boris keeps Hunt as Chancellor, does that soothe the Sunak wing?
If Hunt had anything about him, he would resign the moment Bozo is declared PM.
(Big "if" there.)
He was willing to work for Truss for the sake of his country…
Working with Truss makes sense given the scenario in which he was appointed working for Bozo simply doesn’t
Boris coming back is starting to feel inevitable now. 😒
Vox pops on Sky surprisingly positive "most want him back" according to the presenter and "yes he made mistakes but who hasn't" seems to be a common refrain.
This all seems very bizarre.
Of course lots of people want him back. He tells low information voters what they desperately want to hear, and persuades just enough of them that it's true and he's definitely the man to make it happen. No austerity. Levelling up. Banishing the doomsters and gloomsters. Britain is great. Rule Britannia!
They don't want the reality that 12 years of the Tories have brought us. Well, they're going to get it anyway.
I do wish people would stop sneering at people who voted the wrong way as "low information", it's a really ugly look.
Most people are low information voters. I'm not sneering. Low information voters cut across all classes, incomes, educational levels, intelligence. Most people pay no attention at all. That's why Johnson has been so effective. He shamelessly spins webs of disinformation that anyone who pays the slightest attention can see if just a load of tosh. But to those who don't pay much attention he sounds very plausible. Trumpian. He gets just enough people to vote to make themselves poorer, and not even realise it. Cheer it, even.
You certainly come across as sneering - "those people who know so much less than me".
There's loads of things I don't know about that other people do. Horse racing. The wiring of a 1957 Volkswagen Beetle. How to make damson jam. 99% of human knowledge I am probably ignorant of. If people point that out to me I don't think they're sneering, they're being factual.
Most people don't follow politics closely. Pointing that out isn't sneering.
Edit to add - Johnson knows that, and cynically exploits it.
This is really "Sunak, its a no from me", as he didn't back Ukraine strongly enough.
It's pretty stupid from someone who ought to try to stay above the fray, since he believes his current job essential, and him essential to it.
His job is essential but hardly him. The UK's support for Ukraine can continue under a different Defence Secretary, I'd have thought. Perhaps it will have to.
A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
Has Boris's polling and the by-election defeats earlier this year escaped your attention?
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
He's more likely to act as Gozer the Destructor.
the tories need to gamble though now ,otherwise certain to lose - the only gamble left is Johnson - he may even be able to be perceived as a fresh start with the slate wiped clean (after been sin-binned) - He is actually good at enthusing so the fresh start narrative plays into his strength there
If there's something Boris isn't it's a fresh start.
Boris becoming PM could lose the Tories office in weeks.
How? The Tories have a majority?
If you mean because the Tories are divided, then do you think those divisions are magically going to go away if Rishi wins?
Lots of Tories will quit the whip and refuse to serve under Boris if he wins.
Just look at how many (even ERG) ministers quite en mass last time rather than serve under him. Why do you think that opinion was so universal?
Everyone has got to understand he is kryptonite to the Conservative party.
And you don't think Sunak is kryptonite to others in the Conservative Party?
If you want a unity candidate then pick someone like Penny who can appeal to different sides of the divide. If the party doubles-down on Sunak versus Boris then there's no good answer there that either will be able to, or deserves to, unite the party and win.
If Boris keeps Hunt as Chancellor, does that soothe the Sunak wing?
If Hunt had anything about him, he would resign the moment Bozo is declared PM.
(Big "if" there.)
If Hunt says in advance of the voting that he will not serve under Boris and Rishi wouldn't get asked, that leaves a huge credibility gap for Boris on the economy. That must be a huge factor in the minds of those who think Boris might be the best at winning back voters - but not if the economy goes off a cliff the moment he takes over.
Boris coming back is starting to feel inevitable now. 😒
Vox pops on Sky surprisingly positive "most want him back" according to the presenter and "yes he made mistakes but who hasn't" seems to be a common refrain.
This all seems very bizarre.
Of course lots of people want him back. He tells low information voters what they desperately want to hear, and persuades just enough of them that it's true and he's definitely the man to make it happen. No austerity. Levelling up. Banishing the doomsters and gloomsters. Britain is great. Rule Britannia!
They don't want the reality that 12 years of the Tories have brought us. Well, they're going to get it anyway.
I do wish people would stop sneering at people who voted the wrong way as "low information", it's a really ugly look.
Most people are low information voters. I'm not sneering. Low information voters cut across all classes, incomes, educational levels, intelligence. Most people pay no attention at all. That's why Johnson has been so effective. He shamelessly spins webs of disinformation that anyone who pays the slightest attention can see if just a load of tosh. But to those who don't pay much attention he sounds very plausible. Trumpian. He gets just enough people to vote to make themselves poorer, and not even realise it. Cheer it, even.
Boris is someone who's very popular with those who've never met him or worked with him.
I’ve met him and spent time with him, both publicly and privately, during his time as Mayor of London. Whatever else, I can vouch for the fact that he’s not a nice person.
Boris coming back is starting to feel inevitable now. 😒
Vox pops on Sky surprisingly positive "most want him back" according to the presenter and "yes he made mistakes but who hasn't" seems to be a common refrain.
This all seems very bizarre.
Of course lots of people want him back. He tells low information voters what they desperately want to hear, and persuades just enough of them that it's true and he's definitely the man to make it happen. No austerity. Levelling up. Banishing the doomsters and gloomsters. Britain is great. Rule Britannia!
They don't want the reality that 12 years of the Tories have brought us. Well, they're going to get it anyway.
I do wish people would stop sneering at people who voted the wrong way as "low information", it's a really ugly look.
Most people are low information voters. I'm not sneering. Low information voters cut across all classes, incomes, educational levels, intelligence. Most people pay no attention at all. That's why Johnson has been so effective. He shamelessly spins webs of disinformation that anyone who pays the slightest attention can see if just a load of tosh. But to those who don't pay much attention he sounds very plausible. Trumpian. He gets just enough people to vote to make themselves poorer, and not even realise it. Cheer it, even.
You certainly come across as sneering - "those people who know so much less than me".
There's loads of things I don't know about that other people do. Horse racing. The wiring of a 1957 Volkswagen Beetle. How to make damson jam. 99% of human knowledge I am probably ignorant of. If people point that out to me I don't think they're sneering, they're being factual.
Most people don't follow politics closely. Pointing that out isn't sneering.
Boris obvs gets the numbers and then loses to Rishi in the members' vote.
That 43% will grow because it was a sensible 43% and enough of the 57% will have been frightened enough by the Truss experiment to want someone vaguely sane.
Have you met what’s left of the Tory party membership - they are all mad and don’t care about anyone except themselves
If Bozo gets in to a membership vote he will win by Nile’s
I needed to make one phone call to confirm my view. It was to the most red-corded, true blue, a few years before Boris at School, shire denizen Tory I know. He voted Rishi vs Truss and I wanted to know if it would make a difference with Boris there. He said no. He has never been a fan and, so he said, "Boris might be in jail halfway through his term if he becomes PM".
The consensus amongst my circle, including people who normally vote Tory or don't discuss politics in public, is the Conservatives are out of road. They should call an election and let Labour have a go at government.
This nonsense is not playing well with normal people.
I think one way or another we're heading for an election and a Labour government before too much longer.
I’m not saying it’s likely. But have you considered the possibility that Boris keeps the show on the road until next spring, gets a bounce from helping beat Putin and then bags another majority with the new boundaries helping him across the line?
Anything is possible but I think the most likely scenario is that whoever becomes PM (either Boris and Rishi) the party splits into rival factions and the government collapses paving the way for another winter general election which Labour wins... However, I'm not buying the polls putting Labour 30% ahead and I think they win with a very small majority or no majority at all...
Then as they attempt to govern with barely a majority, no money and economic crisis rocking the UK and global economy their government too quickly proceeds to fall apart...
We're in for a rough decade.
2020s = 1970s!
That’s actually better than a huge Labour majority.
For the real sadness about the abject state of our politics is that, truly, Labour is little better.
Boris coming back is starting to feel inevitable now. 😒
Vox pops on Sky surprisingly positive "most want him back" according to the presenter and "yes he made mistakes but who hasn't" seems to be a common refrain.
This all seems very bizarre.
Of course lots of people want him back. He tells low information voters what they desperately want to hear, and persuades just enough of them that it's true and he's definitely the man to make it happen. No austerity. Levelling up. Banishing the doomsters and gloomsters. Britain is great. Rule Britannia!
They don't want the reality that 12 years of the Tories have brought us. Well, they're going to get it anyway.
I do wish people would stop sneering at people who voted the wrong way as "low information", it's a really ugly look.
Most people are low information voters. I'm not sneering. Low information voters cut across all classes, incomes, educational levels, intelligence. Most people pay no attention at all. That's why Johnson has been so effective. He shamelessly spins webs of disinformation that anyone who pays the slightest attention can see if just a load of tosh. But to those who don't pay much attention he sounds very plausible. Trumpian. He gets just enough people to vote to make themselves poorer, and not even realise it. Cheer it, even.
You certainly come across as sneering - "those people who know so much less than me".
There's loads of things I don't know about that other people do. Horse racing. The wiring of a 1957 Volkswagen Beetle. How to make damson jam. 99% of human knowledge I am probably ignorant of. If people point that out to me I don't think they're sneering, they're being factual.
Most people don't follow politics closely. Pointing that out isn't sneering.
Well, it certainly looks like it.
Well, you're welcome to your opinion. Do you support Johnson and the Tories?
What do PB’ers make of the keir Starmer for next pm gamble? I’m in quite deep at ~130/1
I think the likelihood is greater than 1%, but less than 10%.
Likelihood of widespread media speculation in the coming days is far higher, which will feed into the odds.
It’s a classic “false market?” gamble for those with money to throw away.
Political betting at its finest.
I’ve covered off the position with a pound or two, just to avoid a big loss, but I’d probably just as well thrown a couple of coins out of the window, as Pong should have done yesterday.
What do PB’ers make of the keir Starmer for next pm gamble? I’m in quite deep at ~130/1
I think the likelihood is greater than 1%, but less than 10%.
Likelihood of widespread media speculation in the coming days is far higher, which will feed into the odds.
It’s a classic “false market?” gamble for those with money to throw away.
Political betting at its finest.
I can’t see how Starmer becomes PM next. When Truss resigns she will recommend a name to the King. That name will not be Starmer. It will be the next Tory leader. That name will become PM. If they cannot command a majority there will be a GE, but they will be PM in the interim.
Another strong point for Boris is that he is the very personification of Brexit: 'Get Brexit Done', 'Oven-Ready Deal' etc. For the membership to reject him would be to tacitly reject Brexit itself, to concede that it is somehow failed and discredited. They won't do that.
What do PB’ers make of the keir Starmer for next pm gamble? I’m in quite deep at ~130/1
I think the likelihood is greater than 1%, but less than 10%.
Likelihood of widespread media speculation in the coming days is far higher, which will feed into the odds.
It’s a classic “false market?” gamble for those with money to throw away.
Political betting at its finest.
£7 at 150.
If Boris wins with members but enough MPs immediately defect or indicate an intention to defect, that he cannot say to KC and the sunshine band he commands a maj, and Sunak ditto with the added drawback of having lost, then it is up to still-PM-LT to ask for a dissolution, or for KC to say off his own bat, nobody has conf of house so fuck the lot of you, election.
🚨LATEST POLLING🚨 Overnight we ran three head-to-heads between the most likely Conservative leadership candidates. The results were:
> Sunak 45% vs 23% for Mordaunt > Sunak 44% vs 31% for Johnson > Mordaunt 36% vs 33% for Johnson
But that is ordinary human beings, not the Tory Party members. Which is part of the problem, beside the doctrine that the Party Membershipmust have a central role in the governance of the UK.
I think Brady has fucked this process. With the current state of the Party it all but guarantees two big, adversarial blocs. Add in the potential for disharmony between members and MPs and it all adds up to yet another PM who won't long be able to command the confidence of the House.
What do PB’ers make of the keir Starmer for next pm gamble? I’m in quite deep at ~130/1
I think the likelihood is greater than 1%, but less than 10%.
Likelihood of widespread media speculation in the coming days is far higher, which will feed into the odds.
It’s a classic “false market?” gamble for those with money to throw away.
Political betting at its finest.
I can’t see how Starmer becomes PM next. When Truss resigns she will recommend a name to the King. That name will not be Starmer. It will be the next Tory leader. That name will become PM. If they cannot command a majority there will be a GE, but they will be PM in the interim.
They don't get the gig in the first place if they cannot command a maj.
After the antivaxxer earlier claimed massive excess deaths in ages 0-24, I went and had a look. ONS figures for England and Wales: Total excess deaths for June (latest month available), excluding covid, summed for ages 0-24 and males and females = 0
For May = -9
For April = -74
I wish these cranks realised we can just go and look up the data for the crap they spew.
What do PB’ers make of the keir Starmer for next pm gamble? I’m in quite deep at ~130/1
I think the likelihood is greater than 1%, but less than 10%.
Likelihood of widespread media speculation in the coming days is far higher, which will feed into the odds.
It’s a classic “false market?” gamble for those with money to throw away.
Political betting at its finest.
I can’t see how Starmer becomes PM next. When Truss resigns she will recommend a name to the King. That name will not be Starmer. It will be the next Tory leader. That name will become PM. If they cannot command a majority there will be a GE, but they will be PM in the interim.
They don't get the gig in the first place if they cannot command a maj.
No, the recommendation is who Truss feels is best placed to form a majority. They then become PM and get a go at it. Not the other way around.
I think Brady has fucked this process. With the current state of the Party it all but guarantees two big, adversarial blocs. Add in the potential for disharmony between members and MPs and it all adds up to yet another PM who won't long be able to command the confidence of the House.
That's a good point. It doesn't allow support to coalesce around a unifying candidate. Mind you, it probably never would have done so, and in any case speed is of the essence.
The consensus amongst my circle, including people who normally vote Tory or don't discuss politics in public, is the Conservatives are out of road. They should call an election and let Labour have a go at government.
This nonsense is not playing well with normal people.
I think one way or another we're heading for an election and a Labour government before too much longer.
I’m not saying it’s likely. But have you considered the possibility that Boris keeps the show on the road until next spring, gets a bounce from helping beat Putin and then bags another majority with the new boundaries helping him across the line?
Anything is possible but I think the most likely scenario is that whoever becomes PM (either Boris and Rishi) the party splits into rival factions and the government collapses paving the way for another winter general election which Labour wins... However, I'm not buying the polls putting Labour 30% ahead and I think they win with a very small majority or no majority at all...
Then as they attempt to govern with barely a majority, no money and economic crisis rocking the UK and global economy their government too quickly proceeds to fall apart...
We're in for a rough decade.
2020s = 1970s!
Oh and on top of all of that I still think King Charles III turns out to be a terrible monarch and at some point in the decade we have a constitutional/monarchy crisis as well...
The consensus amongst my circle, including people who normally vote Tory or don't discuss politics in public, is the Conservatives are out of road. They should call an election and let Labour have a go at government.
This nonsense is not playing well with normal people.
I think one way or another we're heading for an election and a Labour government before too much longer.
I’m not saying it’s likely. But have you considered the possibility that Boris keeps the show on the road until next spring, gets a bounce from helping beat Putin and then bags another majority with the new boundaries helping him across the line?
Anything is possible but I think the most likely scenario is that whoever becomes PM (either Boris and Rishi) the party splits into rival factions and the government collapses paving the way for another winter general election which Labour wins... However, I'm not buying the polls putting Labour 30% ahead and I think they win with a very small majority or no majority at all...
Then as they attempt to govern with barely a majority, no money and economic crisis rocking the UK and global economy their government too quickly proceeds to fall apart...
We're in for a rough decade.
2020s = 1970s!
That’s actually better than a huge Labour majority.
For the real sadness about the abject state of our politics is that, truly, Labour is little better.
Same as the view, widely shared here in 2016, that there was little to choose between Clinton and Trump?
After the antivaxxer earlier claimed massive excess deaths in ages 0-24, I went and had a look. ONS figures for England and Wales: Total excess deaths for June (latest month available), excluding covid, summed for ages 0-24 and males and females = 0
For May = -9
For April = -6
I wish these cranks realised we can just go and look up the data for the crap they spew.
That is individual persons across E+W, total - not per K or per million? Just checking - but very interesting.
I think Brady has fucked this process. With the current state of the Party it all but guarantees two big, adversarial blocs. Add in the potential for disharmony between members and MPs and it all adds up to yet another PM who won't long be able to command the confidence of the House.
The only way Starmer is the PM next is that the Tory leadership election is inconclusive and Truss asks for a dissolution and stays to fight the election as leader. She is not going to recommend Starmer as the next PM.
After the antivaxxer earlier claimed massive excess deaths in ages 0-24, I went and had a look. ONS figures for England and Wales: Total excess deaths for June (latest month available), excluding covid, summed for ages 0-24 and males and females = 0
For May = -9
For April = -6
I wish these cranks realised we can just go and look up the data for the crap they spew.
That is individual persons across E+W, total - not per K or per million? Just checking - but very interesting.
Total number.
And I realised I put down the average across the age bands and sexes for April originally (at -6) and had to edit it to -74.
Looked at year to date (well, first six months) and got the total of -104.
Trading this stuff is harder than it looks - set up a back and the price tends to fly out. Set up a lay at 2.5 or w/e and before you know it Boris will be odds on.
What do PB’ers make of the keir Starmer for next pm gamble? I’m in quite deep at ~130/1
I think the likelihood is greater than 1%, but less than 10%.
Likelihood of widespread media speculation in the coming days is far higher, which will feed into the odds.
It’s a classic “false market?” gamble for those with money to throw away.
Political betting at its finest.
I can’t see how Starmer becomes PM next. When Truss resigns she will recommend a name to the King. That name will not be Starmer. It will be the next Tory leader. That name will become PM. If they cannot command a majority there will be a GE, but they will be PM in the interim.
They don't get the gig in the first place if they cannot command a maj.
No, the recommendation is who Truss feels is best placed to form a majority. They then become PM and get a go at it. Not the other way around.
The consensus amongst my circle, including people who normally vote Tory or don't discuss politics in public, is the Conservatives are out of road. They should call an election and let Labour have a go at government.
This nonsense is not playing well with normal people.
I think one way or another we're heading for an election and a Labour government before too much longer.
I’m not saying it’s likely. But have you considered the possibility that Boris keeps the show on the road until next spring, gets a bounce from helping beat Putin and then bags another majority with the new boundaries helping him across the line?
Anything is possible but I think the most likely scenario is that whoever becomes PM (either Boris and Rishi) the party splits into rival factions and the government collapses paving the way for another winter general election which Labour wins... However, I'm not buying the polls putting Labour 30% ahead and I think they win with a very small majority or no majority at all...
Then as they attempt to govern with barely a majority, no money and economic crisis rocking the UK and global economy their government too quickly proceeds to fall apart...
We're in for a rough decade.
2020s = 1970s!
Oh and on top of all of that I still think King Charles III turns out to be a terrible monarch and at some point in the decade we have a constitutional/monarchy crisis as well...
There are far to many "ifs" to regard this as a serious analysis.
The most likely option now is not the collapse of the country, but the collapse of the Conservative party. That is not necessarily any kind of negative, given the fiasco of the last six years.
I think Brady has fucked this process. With the current state of the Party it all but guarantees two big, adversarial blocs. Add in the potential for disharmony between members and MPs and it all adds up to yet another PM who won't long be able to command the confidence of the House.
Realistically, what is his alternative?
The ideal for him is that everyone unites around one candidate and it's a coronation. But, given that isn't going to happen, there's going to be a visible split. The "big, adversarial blocs" aren't a reflection of the process but of reality.
If Boris keeps Hunt as Chancellor, does that soothe the Sunak wing?
If Hunt had anything about him, he would resign the moment Bozo is declared PM.
(Big "if" there.)
Alternatively if Hunt had anything about him, he would bury the hatchet with Boris in the national interest.
It is in the national interest that the disgraced former PM, Boris Johnson, is never allowed anywhere near a position of responsibility in government ever again.
Hunt should and almost certainly will, resign if Johnson is reappointed by the swiveleyed nutjobs.
What do people honestly base this "Labour are little better than the Tories" argument on anymore? It's been 12 years since they've last been in power, and in that time the Tories have done a number of things that would have made any government pre-2010 wince. Vague notions of fear on trivial cultural issues notwithstanding, I don't really think there's much credibility in that line of attack
Another strong point for Boris is that he is the very personification of Brexit: 'Get Brexit Done', 'Oven-Ready Deal' etc. For the membership to reject him would be to tacitly reject Brexit itself, to concede that it is somehow failed and discredited. They won't do that.
Or alternatively it would just show that everyone (on the LEAVE side) is ready to move on?
Boris coming back is starting to feel inevitable now. 😒
Vox pops on Sky surprisingly positive "most want him back" according to the presenter and "yes he made mistakes but who hasn't" seems to be a common refrain.
This all seems very bizarre.
Of course lots of people want him back. He tells low information voters what they desperately want to hear, and persuades just enough of them that it's true and he's definitely the man to make it happen. No austerity. Levelling up. Banishing the doomsters and gloomsters. Britain is great. Rule Britannia!
They don't want the reality that 12 years of the Tories have brought us. Well, they're going to get it anyway.
I do wish people would stop sneering at people who voted the wrong way as "low information", it's a really ugly look.
Most people are low information voters. I'm not sneering. Low information voters cut across all classes, incomes, educational levels, intelligence. Most people pay no attention at all. That's why Johnson has been so effective. He shamelessly spins webs of disinformation that anyone who pays the slightest attention can see if just a load of tosh. But to those who don't pay much attention he sounds very plausible. Trumpian. He gets just enough people to vote to make themselves poorer, and not even realise it. Cheer it, even.
You certainly come across as sneering - "those people who know so much less than me".
There's loads of things I don't know about that other people do. Horse racing. The wiring of a 1957 Volkswagen Beetle. How to make damson jam. 99% of human knowledge I am probably ignorant of. If people point that out to me I don't think they're sneering, they're being factual.
Most people don't follow politics closely. Pointing that out isn't sneering.
Well, it certainly looks like it.
Well, you're welcome to your opinion. Do you support Johnson and the Tories?
What do PB’ers make of the keir Starmer for next pm gamble? I’m in quite deep at ~130/1
I think the likelihood is greater than 1%, but less than 10%.
Likelihood of widespread media speculation in the coming days is far higher, which will feed into the odds.
It’s a classic “false market?” gamble for those with money to throw away.
Political betting at its finest.
I can’t see how Starmer becomes PM next. When Truss resigns she will recommend a name to the King. That name will not be Starmer. It will be the next Tory leader. That name will become PM. If they cannot command a majority there will be a GE, but they will be PM in the interim.
They don't get the gig in the first place if they cannot command a maj.
No, the recommendation is who Truss feels is best placed to form a majority. They then become PM and get a go at it. Not the other way around.
Absolutely not the case
"In October 1963, however, Sir Alec Douglas-Home asked for “leave to go away and see if I could form an administration”, as some in his party were reluctant to serve under him as Prime Minister. Having done so, he was appointed premier at his second audience. In 2010, David Cameron was appointed Prime Minister but said he “wasn’t entirely sure what type of government it would be”.
When it is clear an individual can form a government, they are made Prime Minister, to quote Harold Wilson in 1964, “on the spot”. They also become First Lord of the Treasury from that moment, although the Oath of Office (as First Lord) is taken at a later meeting of the Privy Council (meetings can take place virtually). There are no seals of office as Prime Minister."
I think Brady has fucked this process. With the current state of the Party it all but guarantees two big, adversarial blocs. Add in the potential for disharmony between members and MPs and it all adds up to yet another PM who won't long be able to command the confidence of the House.
Realistically, what is his alternative?
The ideal for him is that everyone unites around one candidate and it's a coronation. But, given that isn't going to happen, there's going to be a visible split. The "big, adversarial blocs" aren't a reflection of the process but of reality.
ISTM that they had a spreadsheet and expected that the clown wouldn’t make the hundred.
Still a possibility, of course, once Guido drops all his fake entries. Even the parliamentary Tory party only has so many nutters.
@BBCBreakfast 'If you are watching Boris your country needs you'
Fishmonger Steve Waters who works at Birmingham Indoor Market told #BBCBreakfast his customers want Boris Johnson to replace Liz Truss as Prime Minister
Another strong point for Boris is that he is the very personification of Brexit: 'Get Brexit Done', 'Oven-Ready Deal' etc. For the membership to reject him would be to tacitly reject Brexit itself, to concede that it is somehow failed and discredited. They won't do that.
He is the personification of Brexit: pointless, dishonest and damaging. He sums it all up perfectly.
@BBCBreakfast 'If you are watching Boris your country needs you'
Fishmonger Steve Waters who works at Birmingham Indoor Market told #BBCBreakfast his customers want Boris Johnson to replace Liz Truss as Prime Minister
Simon Clarke has become the second Cabinet minister to back Boris Johnson to replace Liz Truss as Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative party, The Telegraph can disclose.
Mr Clarke, the Levelling Up secretary, urged MPs to back Mr Johnson in a joint statement to The Telegraph with Ben Houchen, Tees Valley Mayor.
A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
Has Boris's polling and the by-election defeats earlier this year escaped your attention?
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
He's more likely to act as Gozer the Destructor.
the tories need to gamble though now ,otherwise certain to lose - the only gamble left is Johnson - he may even be able to be perceived as a fresh start with the slate wiped clean (after been sin-binned) - He is actually good at enthusing so the fresh start narrative plays into his strength there
How do they skirt round the forthcoming Privileges Committee without blowing up as another Owen Paterson style stitch up?
The consensus amongst my circle, including people who normally vote Tory or don't discuss politics in public, is the Conservatives are out of road. They should call an election and let Labour have a go at government.
This nonsense is not playing well with normal people.
I think one way or another we're heading for an election and a Labour government before too much longer.
I’m not saying it’s likely. But have you considered the possibility that Boris keeps the show on the road until next spring, gets a bounce from helping beat Putin and then bags another majority with the new boundaries helping him across the line?
Anything is possible but I think the most likely scenario is that whoever becomes PM (either Boris and Rishi) the party splits into rival factions and the government collapses paving the way for another winter general election which Labour wins... However, I'm not buying the polls putting Labour 30% ahead and I think they win with a very small majority or no majority at all...
Then as they attempt to govern with barely a majority, no money and economic crisis rocking the UK and global economy their government too quickly proceeds to fall apart...
We're in for a rough decade.
2020s = 1970s!
Oh and on top of all of that I still think King Charles III turns out to be a terrible monarch and at some point in the decade we have a constitutional/monarchy crisis as well...
On what grounds? He has done an excellent job so far and already outlasted his first PM.
I still expect him to only reign for about 10 years before handing over to William but that will be a voluntary abdication and desire to retire to Highgrove with Camilla. He has no desire to do the job for life like his mother, just say he did do the job
The consensus amongst my circle, including people who normally vote Tory or don't discuss politics in public, is the Conservatives are out of road. They should call an election and let Labour have a go at government.
This nonsense is not playing well with normal people.
I think one way or another we're heading for an election and a Labour government before too much longer.
I’m not saying it’s likely. But have you considered the possibility that Boris keeps the show on the road until next spring, gets a bounce from helping beat Putin and then bags another majority with the new boundaries helping him across the line?
Anything is possible but I think the most likely scenario is that whoever becomes PM (either Boris and Rishi) the party splits into rival factions and the government collapses paving the way for another winter general election which Labour wins... However, I'm not buying the polls putting Labour 30% ahead and I think they win with a very small majority or no majority at all...
Then as they attempt to govern with barely a majority, no money and economic crisis rocking the UK and global economy their government too quickly proceeds to fall apart...
We're in for a rough decade.
2020s = 1970s!
Oh and on top of all of that I still think King Charles III turns out to be a terrible monarch and at some point in the decade we have a constitutional/monarchy crisis as well...
On what grounds? He has done an excellent job so far and already outlasted his first PM.
I still expect him to only reign for about 10 years before handing over to William but that will be a voluntary abdication and desire to retire to Highgrove with Camilla. He has no desire to do the job for life like his mother, just say he did do the job
You are Nicholas Witchell and I claim my 5 Coronation Commemorative Royal Mint Souvenir Sovereigns.
This is really "Sunak, its a no from me", as he didn't back Ukraine strongly enough.
It's pretty stupid from someone who ought to try to stay above the fray, since he believes his current job essential, and him essential to it.
His job is essential but hardly him. The UK's support for Ukraine can continue under a different Defence Secretary, I'd have thought. Perhaps it will have to.
No, he isn't essential (no one is, really) - but he has made great play of being so.
Incidentally, these details of the recent Russian confrontation with the RAF reconnaissance aircraft are a little worrying, and weren't widely reported. It flew within 50 miles of Russian airspace, reportedly.
What do PB’ers make of the keir Starmer for next pm gamble? I’m in quite deep at ~130/1
I think the likelihood is greater than 1%, but less than 10%.
Likelihood of widespread media speculation in the coming days is far higher, which will feed into the odds.
It’s a classic “false market?” gamble for those with money to throw away.
Political betting at its finest.
I can’t see how Starmer becomes PM next. When Truss resigns she will recommend a name to the King. That name will not be Starmer. It will be the next Tory leader. That name will become PM. If they cannot command a majority there will be a GE, but they will be PM in the interim.
They don't get the gig in the first place if they cannot command a maj.
No, the recommendation is who Truss feels is best placed to form a majority. They then become PM and get a go at it. Not the other way around.
Absolutely not the case
"In October 1963, however, Sir Alec Douglas-Home asked for “leave to go away and see if I could form an administration”, as some in his party were reluctant to serve under him as Prime Minister. Having done so, he was appointed premier at his second audience. In 2010, David Cameron was appointed Prime Minister but said he “wasn’t entirely sure what type of government it would be”.
When it is clear an individual can form a government, they are made Prime Minister, to quote Harold Wilson in 1964, “on the spot”. They also become First Lord of the Treasury from that moment, although the Oath of Office (as First Lord) is taken at a later meeting of the Privy Council (meetings can take place virtually). There are no seals of office as Prime Minister."
Best placed fails to cut it unless also well placed.
Thanks. I can’t see Boris asking for leave. He will just say make me PM. Starmer will not get a look in this side of an election. I can’t see any outcome of Truss leading the Tories into that election.
What do people honestly base this "Labour are little better than the Tories" argument on anymore? It's been 12 years since they've last been in power, and in that time the Tories have done a number of things that would have made any government pre-2010 wince. Vague notions of fear on trivial cultural issues notwithstanding, I don't really think there's much credibility in that line of attack
Mainly the fact that it was only 3 years ago they were trying to put Corbyn in office.
While Starmer has done some rebuilding of the party I think its mainly superficial. Watching Question Time last night and seeing Jess Phillips rambling on really hit home how weak and underprepared for government Labour really is.
They are a long way away from where Blair had them in the mid-90s when they were preparing for government. And on top of that I can't see how SKS squares the circle of keeping his party and the Unions happy while not having any money to spend and probably having to oversee cuts.
All that said I will vote Labour at the next election because the number one priority is to get the Tories into Opposition where they (hopefully) start to come back to their senses... But I don't expect much if anything from the next Labour government. And I don't expect our dysfunctional politics to get better any time soon.
🚨LATEST POLLING🚨 Overnight we ran three head-to-heads between the most likely Conservative leadership candidates. The results were:
> Sunak 45% vs 23% for Mordaunt > Sunak 44% vs 31% for Johnson > Mordaunt 36% vs 33% for Johnson
Edit: To clarify, a poll of the general public, not party members
It demonstrates that Mordaunt, hardly well known by the populace, is still seen as a better option than the disgraced former PM. So much for his ability to turn things around. I hope MPs have seen this
Boris coming back is starting to feel inevitable now. 😒
Vox pops on Sky surprisingly positive "most want him back" according to the presenter and "yes he made mistakes but who hasn't" seems to be a common refrain.
This all seems very bizarre.
Of course lots of people want him back. He tells low information voters what they desperately want to hear, and persuades just enough of them that it's true and he's definitely the man to make it happen. No austerity. Levelling up. Banishing the doomsters and gloomsters. Britain is great. Rule Britannia!
They don't want the reality that 12 years of the Tories have brought us. Well, they're going to get it anyway.
I do wish people would stop sneering at people who voted the wrong way as "low information", it's a really ugly look.
Most people are low information voters. I'm not sneering. Low information voters cut across all classes, incomes, educational levels, intelligence. Most people pay no attention at all. That's why Johnson has been so effective. He shamelessly spins webs of disinformation that anyone who pays the slightest attention can see if just a load of tosh. But to those who don't pay much attention he sounds very plausible. Trumpian. He gets just enough people to vote to make themselves poorer, and not even realise it. Cheer it, even.
You certainly come across as sneering - "those people who know so much less than me".
There's loads of things I don't know about that other people do. Horse racing. The wiring of a 1957 Volkswagen Beetle. How to make damson jam. 99% of human knowledge I am probably ignorant of. If people point that out to me I don't think they're sneering, they're being factual.
Most people don't follow politics closely. Pointing that out isn't sneering.
Well, it certainly looks like it.
Well, you're welcome to your opinion. Do you support Johnson and the Tories?
🚨LATEST POLLING🚨 Overnight we ran three head-to-heads between the most likely Conservative leadership candidates. The results were:
> Sunak 45% vs 23% for Mordaunt > Sunak 44% vs 31% for Johnson > Mordaunt 36% vs 33% for Johnson
But that is ordinary human beings, not the Tory Party members. Which is part of the problem, beside the doctrine that the Party Membershipmust have a central role in the governance of the UK.
Yes, but it does make further nonsense of the "he's worth a gamble" line being pushed by the zealots.
Simon Clarke has become the second Cabinet minister to back Boris Johnson to replace Liz Truss as Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative party, The Telegraph can disclose.
Mr Clarke, the Levelling Up secretary, urged MPs to back Mr Johnson in a joint statement to The Telegraph with Ben Houchen, Tees Valley Mayor.
A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
Has Boris's polling and the by-election defeats earlier this year escaped your attention?
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
He's more likely to act as Gozer the Destructor.
the tories need to gamble though now ,otherwise certain to lose - the only gamble left is Johnson - he may even be able to be perceived as a fresh start with the slate wiped clean (after been sin-binned) - He is actually good at enthusing so the fresh start narrative plays into his strength there
If there's something Boris isn't it's a fresh start.
Boris becoming PM could lose the Tories office in weeks.
How? The Tories have a majority?
If you mean because the Tories are divided, then do you think those divisions are magically going to go away if Rishi wins?
Lots of Tories will quit the whip and refuse to serve under Boris if he wins.
Just look at how many (even ERG) ministers quite en mass last time rather than serve under him. Why do you think that opinion was so universal?
Everyone has got to understand he is kryptonite to the Conservative party.
And you don't think Sunak is kryptonite to others in the Conservative Party?
If you want a unity candidate then pick someone like Penny who can appeal to different sides of the divide. If the party doubles-down on Sunak versus Boris then there's no good answer there that either will be able to, or deserves to, unite the party and win.
If Boris keeps Hunt as Chancellor, does that soothe the Sunak wing?
If Hunt had anything about him, he would resign the moment Bozo is declared PM.
(Big "if" there.)
He was willing to work for Truss for the sake of his country…
@BBCBreakfast 'If you are watching Boris your country needs you'
Fishmonger Steve Waters who works at Birmingham Indoor Market told #BBCBreakfast his customers want Boris Johnson to replace Liz Truss as Prime Minister
I saw him this morning on BBC Breakfast. He was weird. There's a certain type of man who loves Boris. Their love for him, it seems, makes them feel strong, like they're in on something that no one else can see. This strange para-social relationship they seem to have with him, doubly odd because the man himself is not particularly accessible, is very strange. There's a PhD in psychology for someone here.
A few shows of support from people I know who have reacted to the news of LT going with -oooo hope Boris comes back !- The tories need to pick him to have any chance at the next election
Has Boris's polling and the by-election defeats earlier this year escaped your attention?
Just because Truss performed far worse over the last 6 weeks doesn't mean Boris is a salvation for the Conservative Party.
He's more likely to act as Gozer the Destructor.
the tories need to gamble though now ,otherwise certain to lose - the only gamble left is Johnson - he may even be able to be perceived as a fresh start with the slate wiped clean (after been sin-binned) - He is actually good at enthusing so the fresh start narrative plays into his strength there
How do they skirt round the forthcoming Privileges Committee without blowing up as another Owen Paterson style stitch up?
Indeed. When are people going to realise that having someone who has clearly demonstrated himself to be dishonest to the core as your leader is not something that should be even entertained for a nanosecond. The Labour Party must be praying the Tories are stupid enough.
Simon Clarke has become the second Cabinet minister to back Boris Johnson to replace Liz Truss as Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative party, The Telegraph can disclose.
Mr Clarke, the Levelling Up secretary, urged MPs to back Mr Johnson in a joint statement to The Telegraph with Ben Houchen, Tees Valley Mayor.
The consensus amongst my circle, including people who normally vote Tory or don't discuss politics in public, is the Conservatives are out of road. They should call an election and let Labour have a go at government.
This nonsense is not playing well with normal people.
I think one way or another we're heading for an election and a Labour government before too much longer.
I’m not saying it’s likely. But have you considered the possibility that Boris keeps the show on the road until next spring, gets a bounce from helping beat Putin and then bags another majority with the new boundaries helping him across the line?
Anything is possible but I think the most likely scenario is that whoever becomes PM (either Boris and Rishi) the party splits into rival factions and the government collapses paving the way for another winter general election which Labour wins... However, I'm not buying the polls putting Labour 30% ahead and I think they win with a very small majority or no majority at all...
Then as they attempt to govern with barely a majority, no money and economic crisis rocking the UK and global economy their government too quickly proceeds to fall apart...
We're in for a rough decade.
2020s = 1970s!
Oh and on top of all of that I still think King Charles III turns out to be a terrible monarch and at some point in the decade we have a constitutional/monarchy crisis as well...
On what grounds? He has done an excellent job so far and already outlasted his first PM.
Comments
But nothing firm. Which makes me wonder if he's got a flight yet.
https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1583256094142476288
Surovikin clearly understands the political intent for his campaign. As noted in the interview, the desired outcome is “that Ukraine was independent from the West and NATO, a friendly state to Russia.”
When I made a comment about his Rockies Train trip he was very quick to point out he was working and not on a holiday.
At the very least should he not declare his financial interest when posting photos to promote things he is, in effect, being paid to promote?
Labour not impossible, though I'm concerned about how much of the far left remains.
As for the Conservatives: if they elect Boris Johnson then unless Labour get led by a far left maniac again, I'm not voting for them.
Should she run such an office as predecessors have done, having been PM for the mere blinking of an eye? In my view, no, definitely not.
However, the way it is presented as some kind of pension plan, or as enrriching her personally is not accurate or fair at all.
If Bozo gets in to a membership vote he will win by Nile’s
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/21/liz-truss-entitlement-ex-prime-ministers-yearly-grant-sparks-fury
Depressing doesn’t begin to describe it. The only consolation I can take is that I am hopeful the electorate won’t forget any of this and will doom the party for a generation. I hope.
Then as they attempt to govern with barely a majority, no money and economic crisis rocking the UK and global economy their government too quickly proceeds to fall apart...
We're in for a rough decade.
2020s = 1970s!
Most people don't follow politics closely. Pointing that out isn't sneering.
Edit to add - Johnson knows that, and cynically exploits it.
I think the likelihood is greater than 1%, but less than 10%.
Likelihood of widespread media speculation in the coming days is far higher, which will feed into the odds.
It’s a classic “false market?” gamble for those with money to throw away.
Political betting at its finest.
Sample size: 1
But I am going with it.
For the real sadness about the abject state of our politics is that, truly, Labour is little better.
Rishi needs a few more of those, stat.
Opinium
@OpiniumResearch
🚨LATEST POLLING🚨
Overnight we ran three head-to-heads between the most likely Conservative leadership candidates. The results were:
> Sunak 45% vs 23% for Mordaunt
> Sunak 44% vs 31% for Johnson
> Mordaunt 36% vs 33% for Johnson
Edit: To clarify, a poll of the general public, not party members
Rachel Wearmouth
@REWearmouth
·
1h
Tory source reckons around a dozen Conservative MPs will resign the whip if Boris Johnson wins the leadership race
I’m surprised it’s so low - at that level Bozo could survive as PM for a while
If Boris wins with members but enough MPs immediately defect or indicate an intention to defect, that he cannot say to KC and the sunshine band he commands a maj, and Sunak ditto with the added drawback of having lost, then it is up to still-PM-LT to ask for a dissolution, or for KC to say off his own bat, nobody has conf of house so fuck the lot of you, election.
Sunak 1.72
Penny 9.4
ONS figures for England and Wales: Total excess deaths for June (latest month available), excluding covid, summed for ages 0-24 and males and females = 0
For May = -9
For April = -74
I wish these cranks realised we can just go and look up the data for the crap they spew.
Propping up phatboi is not in the national interest.
And I realised I put down the average across the age bands and sexes for April originally (at -6) and had to edit it to -74.
Looked at year to date (well, first six months) and got the total of -104.
Trading this stuff is harder than it looks - set up a back and the price tends to fly out. Set up a lay at 2.5 or w/e and before you know it Boris will be odds on.
The most likely option now is not the collapse of the country, but the collapse of the Conservative party. That is not necessarily any kind of negative, given the fiasco of the last six years.
The ideal for him is that everyone unites around one candidate and it's a coronation. But, given that isn't going to happen, there's going to be a visible split. The "big, adversarial blocs" aren't a reflection of the process but of reality.
Hunt should and almost certainly will, resign if Johnson is reappointed by the swiveleyed nutjobs.
BTW it's easy to back "yes" to "will he get the 100?" at a decent price. 1.5, 1.6 or thereabouts.
So a slam dunk there for anybody who believes he's got that bit sewn up.
"In October 1963, however, Sir Alec Douglas-Home asked for “leave to go away and see if I could form an administration”, as some in his party were reluctant to serve under him as Prime Minister. Having done so, he was appointed premier at his second audience. In 2010, David Cameron was appointed Prime Minister but said he “wasn’t entirely sure what type of government it would be”.
When it is clear an individual can form a government, they are made Prime Minister, to quote Harold Wilson in 1964, “on the spot”. They also become First Lord of the Treasury from that moment, although the Oath of Office (as First Lord) is taken at a later meeting of the Privy Council (meetings can take place virtually). There are no seals of office as Prime Minister."
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/how-is-a-prime-minister-appointed/
Best placed fails to cut it unless also well placed.
Still a possibility, of course, once Guido drops all his fake entries. Even the parliamentary Tory party only has so many nutters.
'If you are watching Boris your country needs you'
Fishmonger Steve Waters who works at Birmingham Indoor Market told #BBCBreakfast his customers want Boris Johnson to replace Liz Truss as Prime Minister
https://twitter.com/BBCBreakfast/status/1583358490508423168
Mr Clarke, the Levelling Up secretary, urged MPs to back Mr Johnson in a joint statement to The Telegraph with Ben Houchen, Tees Valley Mayor.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/21/liz-truss-ally-simon-clarke-backs-boris-johnson/
I still expect him to only reign for about 10 years before handing over to William but that will be a voluntary abdication and desire to retire to Highgrove with Camilla. He has no desire to do the job for life like his mother, just say he did do the job
Incidentally, these details of the recent Russian confrontation with the RAF reconnaissance aircraft are a little worrying, and weren't widely reported.
It flew within 50 miles of Russian airspace, reportedly.
Did Truss authorise ‘war risk’ provocation over Black Sea?
https://www.computerweekly.com/news/252526360/Did-Truss-authorise-war-risk-provocation-over-Black-Sea
A UK Boeing RC-135W Rivet Joint spy plane was ordered to approach Russian territory in a Cold-War-style provocation just days after Liz Truss’s mini-budget collapsed
While Starmer has done some rebuilding of the party I think its mainly superficial. Watching Question Time last night and seeing Jess Phillips rambling on really hit home how weak and underprepared for government Labour really is.
They are a long way away from where Blair had them in the mid-90s when they were preparing for government. And on top of that I can't see how SKS squares the circle of keeping his party and the Unions happy while not having any money to spend and probably having to oversee cuts.
All that said I will vote Labour at the next election because the number one priority is to get the Tories into Opposition where they (hopefully) start to come back to their senses... But I don't expect much if anything from the next Labour government. And I don't expect our dysfunctional politics to get better any time soon.
Bozo is a shit.
That's the difference.