The Penny has dropped...she will not get 100 nominations (DYOR)
Will she support Sunak or Johnson?
I suspect neither (publicly)
She has dropped in my estimation for many months. Her backtracking on liberal social issues was dreadful. She should have stood up to the membership and called them out for what they are: ante-diluvian morons. She was also weaker than I expected to be in the debates.
But she's also very foolish on this latest iteration of PM musical chairs. If yesterday she had backed Sunak and made a dream team of her as Foreign Secretary with probably Hunt remaining Chancellor they would have waltzed this election.
Has anyone actually declared yet? That 'dream' team could still happen.
I walked into the cocktail bar of my luxury Denver Moab train yesterday - to find four North American journalists (three Yanks and a Canadian) all discussing UK politics
It went something like:
“So Liz Truss has resigned already?” “Yes.” “Did you see the lettuce thing?” “Yes” Much laughter “And now Boris will come back, right?” “OMG Boris!”
What struck me is how British politics is now like a global pantomime - probably a very bad thing, but then at least we are not ignored. And also EVERYONE calls Boris “Boris”
Apparently the new PM will decided if the the fiscal plan is released on 31 October.
So thats a worry if Boris (or Sunak less likely) doesn't agree with it.
I think that aspect of it wouldn't be too bad, Boris and Sunak are known political figures, I think the markets would find it reasonable they'd want to consider the plans themselves.
Johnson would of course be favourite if it gets to the members but it’s not as clear cut as it say would have been a few years ago.
If Sunak tops the ballot and is say around 100 MPs clear of Johnson going to the members then I think they would come under some pressure given the clusterfxvk of the last few weeks to not risk a party split.
Not saying it would be enough to stop Johnson but the vote could be close causing even more problems for the Tories .
I agree. It is plausible that Boris loses with the members in that scenario. I don’t have much faith, but I don’t think it’s as clear cut as people make out.
Remember Rishi outperformed the polling vs Truss too. There has been a tendency to think he is so toxic to the members anyone will beat him. I don’t think that’s true and certainly not now after the Trussterf**k.
I don't think it'll be going to the Members. Online xfactor poll of about 100k people to pick the PM when those same people after 8 weeks of deliberation chose Liz Truss? No. Too too silly for words. More importantly, utterly indefensible and steers to a GE. They'll bend over backwards and sideways to make sure the MPs choice becomes PM this time. So not 'he of much muscle'. Not him.
He is a crank. Being highly qualified in one field does not make him an expert in everything. He has a personal axe grinding mission as he believes a relative was killed by mRNA vaccines.
But hey - what about those BA pilots? Surely you have a view on them?
I walked into the cocktail bar of my luxury Denver Moab train yesterday - to find four North American journalists (three Yanks and a Canadian) all discussing UK politics
It went something like:
“So Liz Truss has resigned already?” “Yes.” “Did you see the lettuce thing?” “Yes” Much laughter “And now Boris will come back, right?” “OMG Boris!”
What struck me is how British politics is now like a global pantomime - probably a very bad thing, but then at least we are not ignored. And also EVERYONE calls Boris “Boris”
Maybe his comeback should be a rebrand as Alex Johnson?
Apparently the new PM will decided if the the fiscal plan is released on 31 October.
So thats a worry if Boris (or Sunak less likely) doesn't agree with it.
I think that aspect of it wouldn't be too bad, Boris and Sunak are known political figures, I think the markets would find it reasonable they'd want to consider the plans themselves.
The issue is what if Boris turns around, fires Hunt and says 'we don't agree to any of this, we are doing something different'.
Johnson would of course be favourite if it gets to the members but it’s not as clear cut as it say would have been a few years ago.
If Sunak tops the ballot and is say around 100 MPs clear of Johnson going to the members then I think they would come under some pressure given the clusterfxvk of the last few weeks to not risk a party split.
Not saying it would be enough to stop Johnson but the vote could be close causing even more problems for the Tories .
I agree. It is plausible that Boris loses with the members in that scenario. I don’t have much faith, but I don’t think it’s as clear cut as people make out.
Remember Rishi outperformed the polling vs Truss too. There has been a tendency to think he is so toxic to the members anyone will beat him. I don’t think that’s true and certainly not now after the Trussterf**k.
Will there be time to organise a Sunak vs Johnson debate ?
Only one I think.
Truss was quite weak in the debates vs Sunak and she still won. We know Boris is more popular than Truss ever was amongst the membership - so perhaps a closer result than people think but Boris still likely wins if it gets there.
The issue is the numbers.
If MPs split roughly 50-50 or even 40-60 (in favour of Rishi over Boris), then Boris will probably run away with it IMHO.
The question comes if Boris has, say 110 votes and Rishi has nearer 250. At that point the will of the Parliamentary Party is very clear - and there is then an argument that the members should get behind the person who has the clear backing of a majority of MPs.
In that case it is not clear what the point of being a member is, other than rubber stamping selections made by the bosses in London.
supporting a cause you believe in having some input into policy having a say in the selection of candidates being a candidate yourself - it's probably a significant percentage of the membership who have been candidates at least at the local level choosing the leader when in opposition
But when the position of PM becomes vacant because of resignation or illness or someone dropping dead, elected MPs should be the ones to choose a new PM. Anything else is anti-democratic.
“I think if Boris gets the 100 nominations, he'll win the members vote. That's just a forecast of what will happen, and not a very insightful one. But it is what I think.”
“I think if Boris gets the 100 nominations, he'll win the members vote. That's just a forecast of what will happen, and not a very insightful one. But it is what I think.”
The Tories are absolutely insane if they allow Boris to get back in. We all knew before he became PM that he had an elastic relationship with the truth and couldn't keep it in his pants, but the positive spin was that he would do the "hype man" job and they would get a decent team to actually run the show. In reality, he wasn't good at any of it, not good at running the country, not good at messaging, so many poor moves politically, useless at PMQs, etc. Those COVID press conferences he was embarrassingly bad, often watch through your fingers cringe level bad.
Sunak is a poor man's Cameron (who was a poor man's Blair) and I think moves like the NI++ were terrible ideas, but given the poor standards across the board he is easily as good as Starmer.
I do think Boris would be better off waiting until after the inevitable defeat at the next GE. Let Rishi take the fall. Then he can come riding back on his white horse saying "I told you so".
I think Boris will want to come back. He stands back and thinks "legacy...history books..." And in some dark recess of his mind he also things "save the world".
That is what motivates politicians - not the lecture circuit, but being there making decisions, implementing their world view. Boris on the lecture circuit would now be a failure, the guy who bottled it. That is not Boris imo. He sees himself as a political giant and political giants don't get frit.
He will run and get the 100 endorsements in a canter.
The question therefore becomes are the membership still furious enough with Rishi to propel him, Boris, back to No.10. Difficult to say. As I reported, many red-corded Cons members preferred Rishi to Liz but to the man himself?
It's going to be the nearest-run thing. I will develop a view over the coming days.
A claim that has been refuted by the American Heart Foundation and which the authors of the non-peer reviewed paper admit is based on anecdotal data rather than statistical study.
I agree with this. Boris or Bust is very unhelpful for the Tories.
Jacob-how on earth can that slogan be remotely helpful to the Party given the strong possibility that the next PM will not be Boris? I would not use the tag line #BorisandBust and you really should think this through properly if you have any interest in party unity https://twitter.com/timloughton/status/1583407950580023297
I suspect JRM means Boris Or Bust for his ministerial career...
‘It’s my duty to urgently inform every Dr, patient & member of the public that the Dr Aseem Malhotra is a shit, and believing anything he has said since 2021 is proof of being as dumb as fuck, until proven otherwise’
The Tories are absolutely insane if they allow Boris to get back in. We all knew before he became PM that he had an elastic relationship with the truth and couldn't keep it in his pants, but the positive spin was that he would do the "hype man" job and they would get a decent team to actually run the show. In reality, he wasn't good at any of it, not good at running the country, not good at messaging, so many poor moves politically, useless at PMQs, etc. Those COVID press conferences he was embarrassingly bad, often watch through your fingers cringe level bad.
Sunak is a poor man's Cameron (who was a poor man's Blair) and I think moves like the NI++ were terrible ideas, but given the poor standards across the board he is easily as good as Starmer.
I do think Boris would be better off waiting until after the inevitable defeat at the next GE. Let Rishi take the fall. Then he can come riding back on his white horse saying "I told you so".
Sure, so deaths are probably worse than what was reported... but comebackkid was trying to suggest the opposite, that deaths have been over-counted, that COVID-19 wasn't really a problem.
Excess deaths during the pandemic are something like 22 million now. Lots of countries undercounted.
Great. So we concur that comebackkid was talking nonsense.
It is the mantra of the lunatic fringe. They have a series of progressively more ridiculous claims that they run through.
1. There were no excess deaths and Covid was just another mild flu strain 2. There were excess deaths but they were caused by all those people who died as a consequence of the actions taken to deal with the fictional covid issue - Mask wearing causing respiratory problems, old people being left to die during lock down, people unable to see doctors and so dying of other things 3. There were excess deaths but they were caused by the vaccine which was designed to kill off large numbers of people because of New World Order/The Great Reset/Bill Gates
Youtube is filled with this garbage and it is lapped up by the conspiracy theorists.
Indeed.
Those who take the lunatic fringe end up reinforcing those in favour of lockdowns etc, because it acts as if the only way to oppose them is through total falsehoods.
I take the polar opposite view of "comebackkid"
There were excess deaths, and these were caused by Covid, but that doesn't justify taking away our Civil Liberties or restricting education etc
there are also excess deaths now in the UK and around the world and have been all 2022- This is not to do with covid but nobody in government is doing much to find out. At best it may be to do with all the cancelled appoitments during 2020 and 21
It might be to do with Covid - people who were seriously ill with Covid, survived but with damage to their heart or lungs which is leading now to a premature death.
I think there's been some analysis of the causes of death which points to this being a plausible explanation, but I don't know if anyone has looked into it in sufficient detail to make the link more confident.
He is a crank. Being highly qualified in one field does not make him an expert in everything. He has a personal axe grinding mission as he believes a relative was killed by mRNA vaccines.
But hey - what about those BA pilots? Surely you have a view on them?
Why are there big excess deaths in the 0 to 24 age range....mmmm
It's possible the clown just wants to stop Sunak as revenge?
Presumably it was he who orchestrated the 148 MPs who no confidenced Johnson in June. And also the 50 ministers who resigned in July. It was all a Sunak plot.
The Tories are absolutely insane if they allow Boris to get back in. We all knew before he became PM that he had an elastic relationship with the truth and couldn't keep it in his pants, but the positive spin was that he would do the "hype man" job and they would get a decent team to actually run the show. In reality, he wasn't good at any of it, not good at running the country, not good at messaging, so many poor moves politically, useless at PMQs, etc. Those COVID press conferences he was embarrassingly bad, often watch through your fingers cringe level bad.
Sunak is a poor man's Cameron (who was a poor man's Blair) and I think moves like the NI++ were terrible ideas, but given the poor standards across the board he is easily as good as Starmer.
I personally think Sunak’s Blair-like delivery is like nails down a blackboard.
I do think he is a stronger candidate than last time because he turned out to be the Cassandra of the leadership contest.
He now has a nice little extra cred that he can wheel out now: I told everyone what would happen and it did. Therefore I am the right person to be making economic decisions moving forwards.
Expect him to dine out on this time and time again. He will do similar if he ever faces Starmer at a GE (particularly if the economy recovers in the spring). It won’t win him an election given how far the Tories are behind but it gives him a certain credibility that will make a good electoral argument.
((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 4m Obviously things could change if he was actually to win. But a significant number of Tory MPs are now telling me they simply will not serve as Conservative MPs if Boris returns. Not clear if that would be enough to bring down the government. But an early election is now viable.
the majority of them would just bite the pillow and take it.
That's disgusting. Kindly edit it.
The majority of them with a sufficient amount of lube would just bite the pillow and take it?
“I think if Boris gets the 100 nominations, he'll win the members vote. That's just a forecast of what will happen, and not a very insightful one. But it is what I think.”
Its funny how politics or politicians can be viewed completely differently by those who don't pay as much attention as we do to the subject.
Someone said to me yesterday that they thought that Boris should come back and that his problem was that he was too "loyal" and not "selfish" enough. That most of the problems under Boris - partygate, Patterson (not said by name) etc - were caused by Boris being loyal to those who worked with him or his friends and trying to get them out of trouble. That if he'd been more selfish and cut them loose, he wouldn't have got into trouble himself.
First time I've ever heard someone suggest Boris isn't selfish enough, or is too loyal, but there's a kernel of truth in it.
Feedback Malhotra is getting from london hosoital cardiology departments
Regular customer of mine is a heart surgeon. He said the workload overwhelming, I cheekily said, it isn't by any chance something to do with the vax rollout is it? to which he said, very quietly. 'Yes'. I asked him another time, again, he said colleagues all talking about it.
Is anyone tracking flights back from the Caribbean this morning; I'm assuming a press conference in the terminal followed by a cavalcade of cars to Westminster while helicopters fly overhead. Cheering crowds thronging the route. Boris in flowery shorts (Villebrequin natch) and flip flops.
I wouldn't be sure of his route. There are 3 direct TUIs from Dominican Republic's biggest airport to LGW but (a) not today and (b) Boris on a TUI? So not sure if he's going via a US hub or something.
The case for Johnson was always that none of that stuff — this said gesturing airily to the bulging cupboard marked “obvious huge character flaws” — mattered because the public loved him. They did, and they proved it at the ballot box. But it turned out that Johnson’s character did matter.
It was his character that led him to break his own laws, his character that saw him value loyalty over competence, his character that meant he was unable to get on with the tedious business of running the country. When the public understood his character, they stopped loving him.
Does anyone share a sense of despair at the notion of a Boris comeback? I don’t think this is a partisan or political thing. Who knows what a Boris II would do politically? Stable it ain’t.
It’s the human notion that it’s not a good move in life to sellout to someone so egotistical and corrupt however desperate and worried the Tories might be right now.
“I think if Boris gets the 100 nominations, he'll win the members vote. That's just a forecast of what will happen, and not a very insightful one. But it is what I think.”
It's possible the clown just wants to stop Sunak as revenge?
Presumably it was he who orchestrated the 148 MPs who no confidenced Johnson in June. And also the 50 ministers who resigned in July. It was all a Sunak plot.
One significant Boris backer is Maria Caulfield. She is the only straight Sunak -> Boris (1st round) switcher and also sent a letter. She does represent Hartlepool though so that have more to do with it...
Does anyone share a sense of despair at the notion of a Boris comeback? I don’t think this is a partisan or political thing. Who knows what a Boris II would do politically? Stable it ain’t.
It’s the human notion that it’s not a good move in life to sellout to someone so egotistical and corrupt however desperate and worried the Tories might be right now.
Yes.
And extra sad because Boris in a number of ways is touched with genius, and, crucially, has many policy instincts that are fundamentally decent and sound. That distinguishes him from Trump, who doesn't. But the flaws, moral and otherwise, render him impossible and are too long to list.
The case for Johnson was always that none of that stuff — this said gesturing airily to the bulging cupboard marked “obvious huge character flaws” — mattered because the public loved him. They did, and they proved it at the ballot box. But it turned out that Johnson’s character did matter.
It was his character that led him to break his own laws, his character that saw him value loyalty over competence, his character that meant he was unable to get on with the tedious business of running the country. When the public understood his character, they stopped loving him.
One of the notable things about @AndrewGimson's enjoyed-it-despite-myself book on Boris Johnson in No10 is the way that Boris's *defenders* talk about how bad he is.
Feedback Malhotra is getting from london hosoital cardiology departments
Regular customer of mine is a heart surgeon. He said the workload overwhelming, I cheekily said, it isn't by any chance something to do with the vax rollout is it? to which he said, very quietly. 'Yes'. I asked him another time, again, he said colleagues all talking about it.
I don't know what's more absurd. The idea that cardiologists could somehow "know" that someone had been affected by a vaccine without any actual evidence. Or the idea that if they could, they would all conspire to keep it a secret. Oh - apart from telling someone like Malhotra, of course!
LBC suggesting the clown camp is overstating his position and Sunak has a commanding lead
Also that the clown is apparently still on holiday
A commanding lead isn't the problem. Non-boris backers need 2/3 of MPs between them to keep him away from the membership, and that's assuming perfect tactics and coordination.
Feedback Malhotra is getting from london hosoital cardiology departments
Regular customer of mine is a heart surgeon. He said the workload overwhelming, I cheekily said, it isn't by any chance something to do with the vax rollout is it? to which he said, very quietly. 'Yes'. I asked him another time, again, he said colleagues all talking about it.
I don't know what's more absurd. The idea that cardiologists could somehow "know" that someone had been affected by a vaccine without any actual evidence. Or the idea that if they could, they would all conspire to keep it a secret. Oh - apart from telling someone like Malhotra, of course!
Well maybe you know more than the cardiologists...its a view i suppose
LBC suggesting the clown camp is overstating his position and Sunak has a commanding lead
Also that the clown is apparently still on holiday
Might fly back tomorrow.
But I'm beginning to think he isn't serious about this.
Thats surely too late. Needs to be on a plane now at least.
He should have been on a plane yesterday.
Not sure about that. Let the groundswell of support build up until it’s deafening, at which point “oh OK then, the country needs me so will - reluctantly you understand - put my name into the frame in the national interest”. Wouldn’t do to look too keen too early.
He actually looks enormously better there. Slimmer, happier, slightly tanned, at least 15 years younger. The last photos of him in office made him look 90
This must be an issue for him. Does he really want to go back to the hellhole of Downing Street and the coming winter of misery and infighting - and a very probable stinging defeat in 2024?
He’s still in his 50s. He can spend 3 years mixing lucrative lectures in America, and writing his memoirs in the Caribbean sun. Make £10m. Return in 2025? Why now?
Feedback Malhotra is getting from london hosoital cardiology departments
Regular customer of mine is a heart surgeon. He said the workload overwhelming, I cheekily said, it isn't by any chance something to do with the vax rollout is it? to which he said, very quietly. 'Yes'. I asked him another time, again, he said colleagues all talking about it.
I don't know what's more absurd. The idea that cardiologists could somehow "know" that someone had been affected by a vaccine without any actual evidence. Or the idea that if they could, they would all conspire to keep it a secret. Oh - apart from telling someone like Malhotra, of course!
Well maybe you know more than the cardiologists...its a view i suppose
Or maybe Malhotra's bullshitting.
Where are these cardiologists who are speaking out? Obvious BS is obvious.
It's possible the clown just wants to stop Sunak as revenge?
Presumably it was he who orchestrated the 148 MPs who no confidenced Johnson in June. And also the 50 ministers who resigned in July. It was all a Sunak plot.
One significant Boris backer is Maria Caulfield. She is the only straight Sunak -> Boris (1st round) switcher and also sent a letter. She does represent Hartlepool though so that have more to do with it...
Desperately hoping Hunts cuts can be magicked away
LBC suggesting the clown camp is overstating his position and Sunak has a commanding lead
Also that the clown is apparently still on holiday
A commanding lead isn't the problem. Non-boris backers need 2/3 of MPs between them to keep him away from the membership, and that's assuming perfect tactics and coordination.
My gut feeling is that Boris is trying to work out how the final MPs vote is going to play out. Don't think he'll want the job if Rishi is the one with the MP powerbase.
Does anyone share a sense of despair at the notion of a Boris comeback? I don’t think this is a partisan or political thing. Who knows what a Boris II would do politically? Stable it ain’t.
It’s the human notion that it’s not a good move in life to sellout to someone so egotistical and corrupt however desperate and worried the Tories might be right now.
Its not even that he is egotistical, elastic with the truth etc. You could throw similar shade at the likes of Tony Blair. It is that he has demonstrated that on top of all those personal failings he is also actually shit at the basics of the job.
The Tories went for him knowing he had lots of personal failings, but thought a) he is can reach parts of the electorate others can't and b) when he was Mayor of London, they put in a reasonably sensible team to do the donkey work.
Now we have seen that step up, he can't do even the presentational bit of the job and I think his supposed magic touch with certain part of the electorate has been torpedoed as well.
Makes sense for Wallace's priorities. Johnson is sound on Ukraine and defence. Sunak ... not so much.
Those who wanted both Boris and Truss overthrown have only themselves to blame if they again nominate Sunak, who again gets defeated. He isn't sound on taxes, he isn't sound on Ukraine.
Feedback Malhotra is getting from london hosoital cardiology departments
Regular customer of mine is a heart surgeon. He said the workload overwhelming, I cheekily said, it isn't by any chance something to do with the vax rollout is it? to which he said, very quietly. 'Yes'. I asked him another time, again, he said colleagues all talking about it.
I don't know what's more absurd. The idea that cardiologists could somehow "know" that someone had been affected by a vaccine without any actual evidence. Or the idea that if they could, they would all conspire to keep it a secret. Oh - apart from telling someone like Malhotra, of course!
Well maybe you know more than the cardiologists...its a view i suppose
Or maybe Malhotra's bullshitting.
Where are these cardiologists who are speaking out? Obvious BS is obvious.
Well i would trust qualigied doctors and cardiologists over bartholomewroberts. How many medical qualifications have you got
LBC suggesting the clown camp is overstating his position and Sunak has a commanding lead
Also that the clown is apparently still on holiday
A commanding lead isn't the problem. Non-boris backers need 2/3 of MPs between them to keep him away from the membership, and that's assuming perfect tactics and coordination.
I took it to suggest the Sunak camp thinks the clown will struggle to get the 100
Also suggestions of a potential deal btw Rishi and Penny
BREAKING: Ben Wallace rules himself OUT of the leadership race and says he "leans towards" Boris Johnson as the person who can "win elections"
For heavens sake, lots of election winners also lose elections. Others win their first at some point. And things change, it isnt 2019 anymore. Has his mind cracked or something?
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has ruled himself out of the leadership race, again. He says he will “lean towards” supporting Boris Johnson, who “won a general election with a huge majority, but also hopes Jeremy Hunt will continue as Chancellor.
Does anyone share a sense of despair at the notion of a Boris comeback? I don’t think this is a partisan or political thing. Who knows what a Boris II would do politically? Stable it ain’t.
It’s the human notion that it’s not a good move in life to sellout to someone so egotistical and corrupt however desperate and worried the Tories might be right now.
Yes, I do. It got to the point earlier this year that I could barely bring myself to watch him speak. It filled me with a kind of visceral mix of fear and disgust. Never had that with Truss because she seemed just incompetent, but less threatening.
The only exception was when he went to Kyiv. Only good thing he did in his premiership (any other achievements such as vaccines were down to other people).
Him coming back just turns up the dial on the doom soundtrack we all have buried in our subconscious. It was already at around 5 thanks to Putin.
Feedback Malhotra is getting from london hosoital cardiology departments
Regular customer of mine is a heart surgeon. He said the workload overwhelming, I cheekily said, it isn't by any chance something to do with the vax rollout is it? to which he said, very quietly. 'Yes'. I asked him another time, again, he said colleagues all talking about it.
I don't know what's more absurd. The idea that cardiologists could somehow "know" that someone had been affected by a vaccine without any actual evidence. Or the idea that if they could, they would all conspire to keep it a secret. Oh - apart from telling someone like Malhotra, of course!
Well maybe you know more than the cardiologists...its a view i suppose
Or maybe Malhotra's bullshitting.
Where are these cardiologists who are speaking out? Obvious BS is obvious.
Well i would trust qualigied doctors and cardiologists over bartholomewroberts. How many medical qualifications have you got
Who are these qualified doctors doctors and cardiologists?
I have no medical qualifications but I'm literate and can see that not a single cardiologist has put their name to that garbage that you're peddling.
The Tories are absolutely insane if they allow Boris to get back in. We all knew before he became PM that he had an elastic relationship with the truth and couldn't keep it in his pants, but the positive spin was that he would do the "hype man" job and they would get a decent team to actually run the show. In reality, he wasn't good at any of it, not good at running the country, not good at messaging, so many poor moves politically, useless at PMQs, etc. Those COVID press conferences he was embarrassingly bad, often watch through your fingers cringe level bad.
Sunak is a poor man's Cameron (who was a poor man's Blair) and I think moves like the NI++ were terrible ideas, but given the poor standards across the board he is easily as good as Starmer.
I personally think Sunak’s Blair-like delivery is like nails down a blackboard.
I do think he is a stronger candidate than last time because he turned out to be the Cassandra of the leadership contest.
He now has a nice little extra cred that he can wheel out now: I told everyone what would happen and it did. Therefore I am the right person to be making economic decisions moving forwards.
Expect him to dine out on this time and time again. He will do similar if he ever faces Starmer at a GE (particularly if the economy recovers in the spring). It won’t win him an election given how far the Tories are behind but it gives him a certain credibility that will make a good electoral argument.
Sunak has the advantage of actually sounding human-like when interviewed. A low bar, yes, but there it is.
It's possible the clown just wants to stop Sunak as revenge?
Presumably it was he who orchestrated the 148 MPs who no confidenced Johnson in June. And also the 50 ministers who resigned in July. It was all a Sunak plot.
One significant Boris backer is Maria Caulfield. She is the only straight Sunak -> Boris (1st round) switcher and also sent a letter. She does represent Hartlepool though so that have more to do with it...
Maria Caulfield is Lewes, Jill Mortimer is Hartlepool
Feedback Malhotra is getting from london hosoital cardiology departments
Regular customer of mine is a heart surgeon. He said the workload overwhelming, I cheekily said, it isn't by any chance something to do with the vax rollout is it? to which he said, very quietly. 'Yes'. I asked him another time, again, he said colleagues all talking about it.
I don't know what's more absurd. The idea that cardiologists could somehow "know" that someone had been affected by a vaccine without any actual evidence. Or the idea that if they could, they would all conspire to keep it a secret. Oh - apart from telling someone like Malhotra, of course!
Semi numerate delusion that something isn't evidence unless it is in a spreadsheet derived from a dweebish controlled study. We knew years in advance of any spreadsheets that AIDS was on the horizon, simply from LA doctors saying to each other Seeing a lot of gay blokes with some pretty strange ailments all of a sudden.
There are several very good potential candidates for Conservative leader. But choosing Boris now would be — and I say this advisedly — an absolutely catastrophic decision.
It's possible the clown just wants to stop Sunak as revenge?
Presumably it was he who orchestrated the 148 MPs who no confidenced Johnson in June. And also the 50 ministers who resigned in July. It was all a Sunak plot.
One significant Boris backer is Maria Caulfield. She is the only straight Sunak -> Boris (1st round) switcher and also sent a letter. She does represent Hartlepool though so that have more to do with it...
Maria Caulfield is Lewes, Jill Mortimer is Hartlepool
Sorry yes - Mortimer is a Mordaunt -> Boris switcher though.
The case for Johnson was always that none of that stuff — this said gesturing airily to the bulging cupboard marked “obvious huge character flaws” — mattered because the public loved him. They did, and they proved it at the ballot box. But it turned out that Johnson’s character did matter.
It was his character that led him to break his own laws, his character that saw him value loyalty over competence, his character that meant he was unable to get on with the tedious business of running the country. When the public understood his character, they stopped loving him.
One of the notable things about @AndrewGimson's enjoyed-it-despite-myself book on Boris Johnson in No10 is the way that Boris's *defenders* talk about how bad he is.
Makes sense for Wallace's priorities. Johnson is sound on Ukraine and defence. Sunak ... not so much.
Those who wanted both Boris and Truss overthrown have only themselves to blame if they again nominate Sunak, who again gets defeated. He isn't sound on taxes, he isn't sound on Ukraine.
Any doubt Boris isn’t going to make the 100 is over in my mind now.
He is going to make the ballot. The question now is whether Penny can get enough support to act as a spoiler and/or whether Sunak can get such overwhelming support that it is presented to the members as a fait accompli.
Be afraid everyone. I fear we are looking at a Boris win.
BREAKING: Ben Wallace rules himself OUT of the leadership race and says he "leans towards" Boris Johnson as the person who can "win elections"
For heavens sake, lots of election winners also lose elections. Others win their first at some point. And things change, it isnt 2019 anymore. Has his mind cracked or something?
He's been reported to not trust Sunak for a while, on Ukraine. This was a not very guarded secret in the last leadership election campaign.
That those who wanted "change" have again opted for the same person who was rejected, only to potentially see them rejected again, have only themselves to blame if they lose again.
Wallace backing Johnson. The pandemic of insanity seems to be taking over the Tory party . Great for Labour but confirms the countries decent into laughing stock is about to be cemented.
Feedback Malhotra is getting from london hosoital cardiology departments
Regular customer of mine is a heart surgeon. He said the workload overwhelming, I cheekily said, it isn't by any chance something to do with the vax rollout is it? to which he said, very quietly. 'Yes'. I asked him another time, again, he said colleagues all talking about it.
I don't know what's more absurd. The idea that cardiologists could somehow "know" that someone had been affected by a vaccine without any actual evidence. Or the idea that if they could, they would all conspire to keep it a secret. Oh - apart from telling someone like Malhotra, of course!
Well maybe you know more than the cardiologists...its a view i suppose
Or maybe Malhotra's bullshitting.
Where are these cardiologists who are speaking out? Obvious BS is obvious.
Well i would trust qualigied doctors and cardiologists over bartholomewroberts. How many medical qualifications have you got
Dr Rachel Clarke, who is also a sleb Doctor, thinks Malhotra spread anti-vax propaganda.
Personally, I tend not to trust any mini-me-media proclamations by such as either of them.
When ex-NHS doctor Aseem Malhotra spread anti-vax disinformation in the House of Comms this week, he sought to bolster his credentials by citing his FRCP - screenshot below. Please can you urgently address this, @RCPhysicians ? Your name is being dragged through mud here. https://twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1583027735911608321
1) Johnson kicked out after (effectively) losing the confidence of Tory MPs 2) Truss is a disaster after securing low level of MP support but making crazy undeliverable promises to membership 3 Johnson makes a membership ballot despite demonstrating no significant support amongst MPs and purely on a promise of “winning elections” 4) Members ignore MPs and vote for him …
The case for Johnson was always that none of that stuff — this said gesturing airily to the bulging cupboard marked “obvious huge character flaws” — mattered because the public loved him. They did, and they proved it at the ballot box. But it turned out that Johnson’s character did matter.
It was his character that led him to break his own laws, his character that saw him value loyalty over competence, his character that meant he was unable to get on with the tedious business of running the country. When the public understood his character, they stopped loving him.
Boris’ character also resulted in him being on a nice expensive holiday instead of working during a period where his constituents might have needed to speak to their MP and is only cutting short his holiday for self-interest.
LBC suggesting the clown camp is overstating his position and Sunak has a commanding lead
Also that the clown is apparently still on holiday
Is my feeling. Hype. Froth. Will be blown away, one way or another, over the next 72 hours.
The logical mechanistic way of analysing is often the way to go - and I can see why Johnson should be short if you do that - but this is one for the impressionistic Big Picture intuition approach.
I was wrong about 'free money' laying him though. It's going to pay off in the end but there's just a teeny bit of stress now, I'll fess to that.
He is a crank. Being highly qualified in one field does not make him an expert in everything. He has a personal axe grinding mission as he believes a relative was killed by mRNA vaccines.
But hey - what about those BA pilots? Surely you have a view on them?
Why are there big excess deaths in the 0 to 24 age range....mmmm
Can you define 'big' in this context please? And point to some evidence?
Feedback Malhotra is getting from london hosoital cardiology departments
Regular customer of mine is a heart surgeon. He said the workload overwhelming, I cheekily said, it isn't by any chance something to do with the vax rollout is it? to which he said, very quietly. 'Yes'. I asked him another time, again, he said colleagues all talking about it.
I don't know what's more absurd. The idea that cardiologists could somehow "know" that someone had been affected by a vaccine without any actual evidence. Or the idea that if they could, they would all conspire to keep it a secret. Oh - apart from telling someone like Malhotra, of course!
Well maybe you know more than the cardiologists...its a view i suppose
Or maybe Malhotra's bullshitting.
Where are these cardiologists who are speaking out? Obvious BS is obvious.
Well i would trust qualigied doctors and cardiologists over bartholomewroberts. How many medical qualifications have you got
Dr Rachel Clarke, who is also a sleb Doctor, thinks Malhotra spread anti-vax propaganda.
Personally, I tend not to trust any mini-me-media proclamations by such as either of them.
When ex-NHS doctor Aseem Malhotra spread anti-vax disinformation in the House of Comms this week, he sought to bolster his credentials by citing his FRCP - screenshot below. Please can you urgently address this, @RCPhysicians ? Your name is being dragged through mud here. https://twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1583027735911608321
Rachel clark lol the poster child for lockdowns and zero covid
“I think if Boris gets the 100 nominations, he'll win the members vote. That's just a forecast of what will happen, and not a very insightful one. But it is what I think.”
Wallace backing Johnson. The pandemic of insanity seems to be taking over the Tory party . Great for Labour but confirms the countries decent into laughing stock is about to be cemented.
I really don’t think Boris is best for labour.
It seems to be an almost universal sentiment in labour circles, so far as I can ascertain. I think they’re wrong. I suspect they just don’t know their voters. They make the simple error of “we hate Boris, therefore so does the electorate”
Britain is governed by a divided and unleadable party. Political instability and elevated gilt yields will persist until that central fact is changed at a general election.
Penny totally out of it...just talking to a guy doing my flooring and he backs Boris as he wants something done about the migrants...working people want Boris
He actually looks enormously better there. Slimmer, happier, slightly tanned, at least 15 years younger. The last photos of him in office made him look 90
This must be an issue for him. Does he really want to go back to the hellhole of Downing Street and the coming winter of misery and infighting - and a very probable stinging defeat in 2024?
He’s still in his 50s. He can spend 3 years mixing lucrative lectures in America, and writing his memoirs in the Caribbean sun. Make £10m. Return in 2025? Why now?
He's not got that much choice. Even if he takes over as LotO in 2025, that means he won't get to be PM again until 2030 at the earliest. By then, he's in his late 60s.
And being LotO is no fun at all. All that effort, impotence and people asking you is Chris Mason is really as nice as he seems on the telly.
Comments
I walked into the cocktail bar of my luxury Denver Moab train yesterday - to find four North American journalists (three Yanks and a Canadian) all discussing UK politics
It went something like:
“So Liz Truss has resigned already?”
“Yes.”
“Did you see the lettuce thing?”
“Yes”
Much laughter
“And now Boris will come back, right?”
“OMG Boris!”
What struck me is how British politics is now like a global pantomime - probably a very bad thing, but then at least we are not ignored. And also EVERYONE calls Boris “Boris”
But hey - what about those BA pilots? Surely you have a view on them?
Pound Parity within mintues.
Also that the clown is apparently still on holiday
having some input into policy
having a say in the selection of candidates
being a candidate yourself - it's probably a significant percentage of the membership who have been candidates at least at the local level
choosing the leader when in opposition
But when the position of PM becomes vacant because of resignation or illness or someone dropping dead, elected MPs should be the ones to choose a new PM. Anything else is anti-democratic.
Let Rishi take the fall.
Then he can come riding back on his white horse saying "I told you so".
https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/10/21/11/63710683-11339601-image-a-30_1666346976570.jpg
But I'm beginning to think he isn't serious about this.
That is what motivates politicians - not the lecture circuit, but being there making decisions, implementing their world view. Boris on the lecture circuit would now be a failure, the guy who bottled it. That is not Boris imo. He sees himself as a political giant and political giants don't get frit.
He will run and get the 100 endorsements in a canter.
The question therefore becomes are the membership still furious enough with Rishi to propel him, Boris, back to No.10. Difficult to say. As I reported, many red-corded Cons members preferred Rishi to Liz but to the man himself?
It's going to be the nearest-run thing. I will develop a view over the coming days.
I think there's been some analysis of the causes of death which points to this being a plausible explanation, but I don't know if anyone has looked into it in sufficient detail to make the link more confident.
Presumably it was he who orchestrated the 148 MPs who no confidenced Johnson in June. And also the 50 ministers who resigned in July. It was all a Sunak plot.
I do think he is a stronger candidate than last time because he turned out to be the Cassandra of the leadership contest.
He now has a nice little extra cred that he can wheel out now: I told everyone what would happen and it did. Therefore I am the right person to be making economic decisions moving forwards.
Expect him to dine out on this time and time again. He will do similar if he ever faces Starmer at a GE (particularly if the economy recovers in the spring). It won’t win him an election given how far the Tories are behind but it gives him a certain credibility that will make a good electoral argument.
Jimmy Wales is actually an adopted Brit, who took British citizenship, and now lives in Britain
Someone said to me yesterday that they thought that Boris should come back and that his problem was that he was too "loyal" and not "selfish" enough. That most of the problems under Boris - partygate, Patterson (not said by name) etc - were caused by Boris being loyal to those who worked with him or his friends and trying to get them out of trouble. That if he'd been more selfish and cut them loose, he wouldn't have got into trouble himself.
First time I've ever heard someone suggest Boris isn't selfish enough, or is too loyal, but there's a kernel of truth in it.
Regular customer of mine is a heart surgeon. He said the workload overwhelming, I cheekily said, it isn't by any chance something to do with the vax rollout is it? to which he said, very quietly. 'Yes'. I asked him another time, again, he said colleagues all talking about it.
https://twitter.com/DrAseemMalhotra/status/1582803929741791232?s=20&t=mDPtEY3Yrj4HiFfGpB_vKA
It was his character that led him to break his own laws, his character that saw him value loyalty over competence, his character that meant he was unable to get on with the tedious business of running the country. When the public understood his character, they stopped loving him.
https://thecritic.co.uk/issues/october-2022/how-britain-fell-out-of-love-with-boris/
It’s the human notion that it’s not a good move in life to sellout to someone so egotistical and corrupt however desperate and worried the Tories might be right now.
She does represent Hartlepool though so that have more to do with it...
And extra sad because Boris in a number of ways is touched with genius, and, crucially, has many policy instincts that are fundamentally decent and sound. That distinguishes him from Trump, who doesn't. But the flaws, moral and otherwise, render him impossible and are too long to list.
https://thecritic.co.uk/issues/october-2022/how-britain-fell-out-of-love-with-boris/ https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1583416436730392576/photo/1
This must be an issue for him. Does he really want to go back to the hellhole of Downing Street and the coming winter of misery and infighting - and a very probable stinging defeat in 2024?
He’s still in his 50s. He can spend 3 years mixing lucrative lectures in America, and writing his memoirs in the Caribbean sun. Make £10m. Return in 2025? Why now?
Where are these cardiologists who are speaking out? Obvious BS is obvious.
That could easily add enough MPs to Boris's side.
Devastating intervention.
How big?
Huuuge.
Market reacted. Boris now 2.8
The Tories went for him knowing he had lots of personal failings, but thought a) he is can reach parts of the electorate others can't and b) when he was Mayor of London, they put in a reasonably sensible team to do the donkey work.
Now we have seen that step up, he can't do even the presentational bit of the job and I think his supposed magic touch with certain part of the electorate has been torpedoed as well.
This grievously hurts me. I thought he would be the one to unite the Tories and win the next GE.
Those who wanted both Boris and Truss overthrown have only themselves to blame if they again nominate Sunak, who again gets defeated. He isn't sound on taxes, he isn't sound on Ukraine.
Also suggestions of a potential deal btw Rishi and Penny
The last sentence might be the key.
Hunt controls the markets...
The only exception was when he went to Kyiv. Only good thing he did in his premiership (any other achievements such as vaccines were down to other people).
Him coming back just turns up the dial on the doom soundtrack we all have buried in our subconscious. It was already at around 5 thanks to Putin.
I have no medical qualifications but I'm literate and can see that not a single cardiologist has put their name to that garbage that you're peddling.
https://twitter.com/Jesse_Norman/status/1583417328959901697
https://twitter.com/thetls/status/1583349194869178368
He is going to make the ballot. The question now is whether Penny can get enough support to act as a spoiler and/or whether Sunak can get such overwhelming support that it is presented to the members as a fait accompli.
Be afraid everyone. I fear we are looking at a Boris win.
https://twitter.com/CrimsonLFC/status/1583176659330797568?s=20&t=yzZfNQfhYit32vluwpyixA
That those who wanted "change" have again opted for the same person who was rejected, only to potentially see them rejected again, have only themselves to blame if they lose again.
Sometimes you have to accept that no means no.
Personally, I tend not to trust any mini-me-media proclamations by such as either of them.
When ex-NHS doctor Aseem Malhotra spread anti-vax disinformation in the House of Comms this week, he sought to bolster his credentials by citing his FRCP - screenshot below. Please can you urgently address this, @RCPhysicians ? Your name is being dragged through mud here.
https://twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1583027735911608321
2) Truss is a disaster after securing low level of MP support but making crazy undeliverable promises to membership
3 Johnson makes a membership ballot despite demonstrating no significant support amongst MPs and purely on a promise of “winning elections”
4) Members ignore MPs and vote for him
…
F*ckwits.
The logical mechanistic way of analysing is often the way to go - and I can see why Johnson should be short if you do that - but this is one for the impressionistic Big Picture intuition approach.
I was wrong about 'free money' laying him though. It's going to pay off in the end but there's just a teeny bit of stress now, I'll fess to that.
Though when he finds the time to knap is beyond me.
Now +400.
Only cost me about 40 quid too.
Approx
It seems to be an almost universal sentiment in labour circles, so far as I can ascertain. I think they’re wrong. I suspect they just don’t know their voters. They make the simple error of “we hate Boris, therefore so does the electorate”
Penny or Rishi would be better for labour, imo.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/britain-has-become-ungovernable-we-need-an-election-now via @spectator
And being LotO is no fun at all. All that effort, impotence and people asking you is Chris Mason is really as nice as he seems on the telly.